Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/06/25
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
637 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 30-80 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms over
north central South Dakota this evening, with the highest chances
(60-80%) over the western half of Dewey and Corson Counties.
- There is a marginal risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms over
western Corson and northwestern Dewey Counties this evening with the
main threats being hail, up to the size of quarters, and wind gusts
of 60 mph.
- Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal through
Sunday. Highs will be mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
- Dry weather will dominate much of the period, with relative
humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range Friday through next
Monday.
- Wind gusts of 30 to near 40 mph will be possible next Monday. This
may result in elevated fire weather concerns.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
Thunderstorms have developed west river this evening. Adjusted
hourly pops accordingly.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
As of 2pm, skies remain clear with a slight northeast to southwest
oriented cold front draped just west of the CWA through Rapid City`s
WFO where we are starting to see the formation of towering cumulus
clouds tracking northward along and ahead of this front. Current
temps are in the upper 70s/80 and dew points running in upper 30s to
the lower 50s, highest over south central SD. Beyond this evening,
overall dry conditions expected with just isolated chances (15-20%)
here and there for precipitation over portions of the CWA this week.
Temperatures continue to run about 10 to 15 degrees above average
through Sunday.
The main feature aloft will consist of an ridging pattern over the
Northern Plains with NAEFS indicating 97.5 to 99.5% above climo for
mean geopotential height Wed-Sun over the region! At the surface,
this cold front will shift a bit more east, barely clipping western
Corson County by 00Z Tuesday. Winds will shift more southeasterly
ahead of the slow moving front over the majority of the CWA. By
Tuesday morning, the front will be centered northeast to southwest
over the center part of the state with more north to northeasterly
flow behind it over central SD. By 18Z the front will continue
east/southeast lingering over portions of northeastern SD into west
central MN and exiting CWA by the evening where northeast winds will
continue over the entire CWA. A low positioned over northwestern NE
Tuesday afternoon and evening could bring a 15-20% chance of pops,
mainly south and southwest of Pierre during this time. High pressure
then builds over Manitoba Tuesday evening and shifts east over
Ontario early Wednesday morning keeping the weather dry. Another low
moves in over Saskatchewan Thursday morning then over ND/Canada
border early Friday, with a horizontally oriented surface trough
extending from the center of the low through west central SD. With
this there is a 15-20% chance of precip Friday into Friday evening.
Low confidence on exact setup as this is several days out and likely
to change. Otherwise, dry weather expected for the weekend as a high
pressure system will be dominant.
Looking into details for this evening, HREF and CAMs indicate
isolated to scattered showers and tstorms mainly over north central
SD (NBM 20-70%, highest over western Corson/Dewey Counties) as
convection will move from southwest to northeast along the front.
Daytime mixing, dewpoints in the upper 40s to the lower 50s, CAPE
about 500-1000j/kg, and steepening mid level lapse rates (7.5C)
should be enough to either initiate convection here or keep the
atmosphere marginally unstable enough for cells to continue over this
area as most of the storms will form west and southwest of the CWA
to start. HREF probability of DBZ>40 and MUCAPE>50 is 50-70% over
north central SD, lessing to 20-30% east and southeast of here to
the MO River. The HiRes ARW, FV3, HRRR all seems to highlight this
potential well through about 05Z. There is a bit of timing and
coverage differences between these CAMs though. HREF backs this up
indicating these cells over Corson and Dewey have a 10-30% chance of
UH>75m2/s2, with the 30% over far western Corson. This means more
organized/multicellular convection, however, bulk shear remains
under 30kts increasing to about 30kts 01Z and after. There is a 10%
chance of max 2-5km UH>150 m2s2 over western Corson, indicating
right moving supercells, however, bulk shear/storm motion will be
more parallel with the front, indicating more messy scattered
convection. With DCAPE around 1000-1200 j/kg over Corson/Dewey, and
parameters mentioned above, SPC does highlight a marginal risk (1/5)
for severe thunderstorms over the western half of Corson and extreme
northwestern Dewey Counties with a 5% chance of severe wind gusts
(58+ mph) and hail (quarter). RAP soundings over Corson indicate
SHIP around 0.5-0.8 and more of an inverted V type sounding
indicating this hail and wind potential.
As mentioned, temps will run about 10-15 degrees above average
ranging in the mid 70s to the mid 80s. Coolest day will be
Wednesday, north of the cold front and south of the high with
northeast turning easterly winds. Highs will range in the lower to
mid 70s. Our warmest day looks to be Friday with overall highs in
the 80s!
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms may creep into KMBG vicinity this evening. Added a
prob 30 group until 2z as we see if the line develops more to the
east.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...MMM
AVIATION...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1021 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain and showers, locally heavy at times, continue
through Tuesday with below normal daytime highs and above normal
overnight lows. There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday into
Wednesday. Temperatures will be closer to normal on Wednesday.
However, temperatures trend back below normal for the end of the
week, with additional chances for widespread rainfall.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:
- Flood Watch in effect for the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson
Valley, central and southern Taconics, Berkshires and
Litchfield Hills through 8 pm Tuesday.
- Scattered thunderstorms expected on Tuesday, with a few
severe storms possible for some areas west of the Hudson
Valley.
Updates:
As of 10:22 PM...Periods of rain continue to move north and
west based on latest radar scans. Minor update to increase
hourly temperatures and dewpoints a few degrees warmer based on
current surface observations. Winds have also been less than 10
mph in the Greater Capital District so minor adjustment to wind
gusts for the next two to three hours to reflect these current
observations. The rest of the forecast is doing well and on
track through midnight tonight.
As of 8:01 PM...Minor update to hourly temperatures across
southern Vermont for the next one to two hours as the sun is
setting and temperatures will begin hovering for the overnight
hours. Also increased probability of precipitation for a few
hours during the overnight period to match latest high
resolution model forecast trends.
Discussion:
A cutoff low over the Ohio Valley will slowly track northeast, as we
continue to be in an omega block pattern. Widespread rain continues
to move across our region from the south-southeast associated with
the flow around the cutoff low. Cyclonic vorticity advection (CVA)
will help to continue forcing for ascent and precipitation. Moderate
rain will continue this evening before becoming lighter during the
early morning hours. Additional precipitation tonight will range
from 0.3" to possibly as high as 2" across higher elevations due to
upslope enhancement and orographic lift. High resolution models
place the higher QPF values over the eastern Catskills and
northwestern CT. Flood watches are in effect until Tuesday evening
for the eastern Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley, northwestern CT,
and western MA. River gauges will continue to be monitored. The
WPC continues to have our region in a marginal and slight risk
(level 1/5 and 2/5) for excessive rainfall, indicating the
potential for flash flooding. Low temperatures overnight will be
in the low 50s for almost the whole region.
There will be a break from precipitation Tuesday afternoon for
several hours as the cutoff low moves into Pennsylvania. However
heavier showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will form and move
into the western areas of our region Tuesday evening. The SPC
currently has the far western section of our CWA in a marginal risk
(level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms. Soundings from the 18z NAM
3km, and the HRRR show decent CAPE values up to 1200 J/kg in the
Mohawk Valley, and deep layer shear values of around 20-30 knots.
Any convection that fires and moves into our region Tuesday
afternoon will have to be monitored for strong wind gusts and small
hail. Temperatures should be somewhat milder than the past few
days, with mid 60s for highs in most valley locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:
- Flood Watch in effect for the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson
Valley, central and southern Taconics, Berkshires and
Litchfield Hills through 8 pm Tuesday.
Discussion:
Convection should gradually wane Tue evening due to diurnal
effects, although some convective cells will likely be ongoing
into at least part of the evening. Moisture plume (greatest IVT)
shifts east of the area into eastern New England, so the threat
for heavy rain looks to end. Temperatures will not cool much
with mostly cloudy skies with mainly lower/mid 50s for lows. The
core of the upper low is expected to track into the southern
Tier of NY and eastern PA by late Tue night, then track east
across NYC/Long Island and S. New England on Wed. With a cold
pool aloft, there will be potential for low-topped convection
producing scattered T-storms with small hail. With some breaks
of sunshine, high temperatures could briefly reach the 65-70F
range Wed afternoon.
Showers/T-storms should end Wed evening as the upper low tracks
well north/east into Maine, with some subsidence developing in
wake of this system. With decreasing cloud cover expected, low
temperatures will be cooler ranging from the 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:
- Increasing chances for additional rainfall and below normal
temperatures for late week into next weekend.
Discussion:
On Thu, guidance in good agreement indicating a positive tilt
upper level trough over the Great Lakes. As the trough
approaches, chances for showers increase especially later Thu
into Thu night. An fairly cool air mass will be in place, so
temperatures will be below normal. The upper trough is then
expected to close off somewhere over or in vicinity of our
region Fri into Sat. Depending on the exact position and track
of the anticipated cut-off low, this pattern may again result in
periods of rain, heavy at times, through the first half of the
weekend along with cool temperatures. Due to wet antecedent
conditions, will have to monitor for potential flooding if the
heavy rain threat materializes.
Guidance indicating the cut-off low won`t stay around for long,
as it is expected to exit to the east Sat night. So at least
some of the upcoming Mothers Day weekend may end up with decent
weather on Sunday. Temperatures should also get back to normal
levels with dry/breezy conditions. High pressure look to build
in Sun night into Mon, with continued tranquil weather.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00z/Wed...Periods of rain will continue through tonight as
an upper level low slowly approaches from the west. Cigs/vsbys
should be mainly in the MVFR/VFR range up to 06z/Tue with some
possible reductions to IFR/MVFR between 06z-12z/Tue. Rain becomes
more showery and scattered in nature after 12z/Tue with cigs/vsbys
generally in the MVFR/VFR range. A few thunderstorms are also
possible, especially after 16z/Tue, but will just include VCSH at
this time and refer to future TAF issuances for further details on
timing and location of any convective elements.
Wind will be east to northeasterly through tonight becoming
southeasterly on Tuesday. Periods of LLWS will be possible through
tonight as a low-level jet brings 2000 ft winds between 35-45 kt at
KALB/KGFL/KPSF.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Watch in effect for the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson
Valley, central and southern Taconics, Berkshires and Litchfield
Hills through 8 pm Tuesday.
Periods of rain continue through Tuesday, with locally heavy
rain expected, especially tonight and again Tuesday afternoon.
Where heavy rain can repeatedly move over the same areas, some
flooding of urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas is
expected. Even isolated to scattered flash flooding may occur
where the heaviest rain falls, especially if it occurs over the
more susceptible urban areas. WPC continues to have many areas
south of Albany in a slight risk for excessive rainfall through
tonight, with a marginal risk Tuesday. The slight risk area
generally coincides with where the Flood Watch is in effect.
Additional rainfall amounts tonight through Tuesday night
ranging between 1.5 and 3.5 inches (up to 4-5 inches in the
eastern Catskills due to upslope enhancement), combined with
already saturated ground has increased the risk of Flash
Flooding in the watch area. Latest ensemble river forecasts
indicate medium probabilities (~30-50%) for some points to reach
minor flood stage, most notably along the Housatonic River,
Esopus Creek, West Canada Creek, Hoosic River, Schoharie Creek,
the Walloomsac.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV/Webb/Conklin
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...JPV/Webb
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
625 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Pleasant and seasonably warm this week with highs in the 60s
and 70s. A few spots south of I-90 and in river valley
locations may (10- 40% chance) reach into the 80s on Tuesday
and Wednesday.
- Chances (10-30%) for showers on Wednesday and Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
Rest of Today - Tuesday: Dry, Seasonably Warm
GOES-19 water vapor imagery and RAP 500mb heights shows the synoptic
pattern fairly nicely this afternoon as a closed upper-level low
sits over KY/TN resulting in some cloud cover moving into the area
from the east. Further northwest, an area of subsidence has cleared
skies and diurnal mixing has increased temperatures across much of
MN, setting up a slight temperature gradient across the local area
for high temperatures today. Otherwise, upper-level ridging
continues to be the name of the game as we head into Tuesday as
the aforementioned upper-level low moves east, enabling an
upper-level ridge to amplify squarely overhead of the local
area. As a result, high temperatures will likely be warmer for
Tuesday with the probabilistic NBM having low-end probabilities
(10-40%) for areas south of I-90 and in river valley locations
to top 80 degrees.
Wednesday - Saturday: Remaining Warm, Slight Shower Chances
Wednesday features potentially our only realistic chance for
meaningful precipitation during the work week as a secondary
troughing regime swings out of the southern Rockies and into the
Great Plains. As this occurs, some instability present in recent
NAM/GFS soundings in northeast Iowa would suggest some showers
cannot be ruled out, albeit with the low-level lift being fairly
nebulous. This is somewhat supported by the grand ensemble
(GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) with medium probabilities (20-50%)
for measurable precipitation across northeast Iowa and into
southwestern Wisconsin on Wednesday. Overall, currently does not
appear to be impactful at this time.
Otherwise, upper-level ridging and high pressure continue to
dominate the forecast for Thursday and Friday enabling temperatures
to trend seasonably warm with median high temperatures in the NBM in
the 70s into the weekend with minimal sky cover. However, given the
lack of any robust signal in the EFI through the weekend, these
temperatures are within the realm of seasonable given our daily
record highs this time of year reach into the 90s. Chances for
precipitation return into the picture on Saturday as some long-
range guidance trends depict a subtle shortwave traversing the
northern periphery of the ridge and sneaking some precipitation
into portions of the local area. Overall, the grand ensemble
(GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) has some more favorable
probabilities (50-70%) for measurable precipitation north of
I-90. However, given the scale of this feature and differences
between ensemble and deterministic guidance, thinking
predictability remains low for Saturday precipitation chances at
this time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
VFR expected through the 06.00Z TAF period. High pressure moves
in overnight resulting in light and variable winds. Have
included VRB at KRST TAF site as a full 360 degree clockwise
rotation is expected over the next 24 hours, returning to
currently observed east-southeast winds near 07.00Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Naylor
AVIATION...JAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1039 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through much
of the night across the southwest and central.
- Mostly dry with above average temperatures and breezy
conditions at times through the end of the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues across the southwest
and much of central North Dakota, with a lot of expansion over
the past hour or so. At this point, instability looks limited
enough that the severe potential is very low, but could still
see some small hail and gusty winds, with the background
synoptic winds still relatively strong across the south central.
We did freshen up POPs through the day Tuesday with this update.
Expect convection to slowly diminish through the night tonight,
with some lingering low POPs through the day Tuesday for a few
scattered showers in the post-frontal regime. Northeast winds
will be a bit breezy in the James River Valley, with highs
mainly in the 60s.
UPDATE
Issued at 711 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
Quick update to expire the Wind Advisory. We also expanded and
extended the mention of patchy blowing dust, in line with a few
reports that have come in.
UPDATE
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
Cold front extends from the Turtle Mountains area, through
Washburn, to Grant County, with showers and thunderstorms
developing along the front. There is a secondary boundary,
oriented north-south, connected to the front in Pierce County
and extending south through Kidder and Emmons Counties. The most
well developed, although still subsevere, storms have been in
the Sheridan and Wells County areas. Ahead of the front, as
previously thought, shear is quite low, with the SPC
mesoanalysis page advertising less than 25 knots of 0-6 km
shear. Because of this, even though we have moderate instability
and lapse rates, expecting storms to be mostly pulse / popcorn
thunderstorms. Can`t rule out small to potentially even
borderline severe hail, but would not expect storms to be long-
lived severe due to the lack of shear leading to updrafts being
cut off relatively quickly. Further to the west, a few storms
have tried to develop in the western Morton and Grant County
area, but increasing shear and decreasing instability behind the
front has led to convection dying off soon after it develops.
The Wind Advisory for northwest North Dakota is still in effect
for the next half hour. Thinking we will be able to drop it,
with winds below criteria, but winds will likely stay strong
through the next few hours before diminishing further overnight.
Meanwhile, we did issue two Dust Advisories for parts of western
North Dakota, downstream of the Ray and Epping areas.
Visibilities have been on and off reduced in the Watford City
area and south, and we did just get a report of some dust in the
Hazen area, indicating dust is being carried pretty far
downstream. As the winds relax, guessing that the dust will
begin to settle. Freshened up POPs with this update, and will be
keeping an eye on convection and dust through the evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
Currently a cold front is across the state southwest to
northeast. Showers in the far northwest have been mixing down 50
to 60 mph winds. The lower levels are also dry so this aids in
the downward momentum. Blowing dust plumes from the burn scars
in Ray and Tioga have made their way to Slope County! We have an
SPS out for that and a Wind Advisory out for winds in the
northwest.
Cumulus have started to pop along the eastern edge of
the front in western Morton through Hettinger County. There is
currently around 500 J/kg across the south central but capped.
So it should be at least an hour or two for attempts to break
it. The RAP forecast has the cap breaking at 3pm CT. Mixed layer
CAPE is almost nothing. Lapse rates are convectively okay at
7.5 and forecast to stay the same. Wind shear is 30kts along the
front where the cumulus are located. DCAPE is concerningly high
at 1200 J/kg currently, and forecast to be 1400 J/kg later.
Again all this is based off the RAP. SPC has a marginal risk
(isolated) from the southwest to the central part of the state,
including Bis/Man. The main threats are winds around 60 mph
based on the dry lower levels of the atmosphere and storm mode.
Model soundings have an inverted V hinting at dry air down low
that will accelerate the downdrafts of the storms. Storm mode
will be linear as the wind shear vector is near parallel with
the front. Quarter size hail is possible as storms develop but
then it will mainly be a wind threat. The CAMs have slowed the
timing down to around 23z, but will keep a very close eye on the
cumulus that already started. The severe threat should end
around 10pm CT, but showers and thunderstorms will continue in
the south and east through 5am CT with wrap around moisture with
the surface low. All this is in southwest flow, which will
change to a ridge until Friday. Tuesday will be slightly cooler
behind the front in the 60s and 70s. Then the warmer air with
the ridge moves in. Friday the flow changes to zonal, allowing
some shortwaves off the Montana mountains to give a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms again. This weekend another
ridge moves over, allowing temperatures to possible climb into
the upper 80s! Sunday night into Monday where the active
southwest flow sets back up. Temperatures could also be in the
upper 80s, allowing thunderstorms to form.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across central
North Dakota through the first half of the TAF period, with
MVFR visibilities possible in any areas of precipitation. A
cold front moving through will continue shifting strong winds
from the south to the north. MVFR ceilings will move in to
southwest North Dakota late tonight into Tuesday morning,
potentially impacting KDIK. Winds will shift to become
northeasterly during the day Tuesday, sustained around 15 knots.
Isolated showers are possible through the day Tuesday, but too
low of confidence in timing and location to include at any
terminal with this update.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Jones
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Jones
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1036 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and unsettled weather continues for the first half of the
week with additional showers tonight through tomorrow. As our
upper-level low translates into the region tomorrow,
thunderstorms are possible in the St. Lawrence with continued
rainfall in southern Vermont. Localized rainfall amounts greater
than an inch are possible in southern Vermont with a tenth to
half an inch likely from the international border to central
Vermont and northern New York by Wednesday. Temperatures will
continue to be seasonably cool through mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1030 PM EDT Monday...Precipitation chances where shifted
again to better match radar trends. Fortunately, recent CAMs are
handling precipitation much better, thus forecaster confidence
has increased in expected evolution. One radar trend to note was
that showers have been continually reforming along the Highway
11 corridor and down the northwest slopes of the Adirondacks
indicating that downslope processes are no longer dominating
shower locations. This is likely due to increasing instability
throughout the atmospheric column as a trough is beginning to
move through. Therefore, leaned away from NAM which shows
stronger downslope signatures in the precipitation fields. HRRR
and RAP are more clued in for this update. Showers will likely
continue more uninterrupted through the next 3-6 hrs. Otherwise,
the forecast is in good shape with minimal changes necessary.
Previous Discussion...Showers will continue to overspread the
area this evening as a stationary boundary and axis of sub-
tropical moisture sits across southern New England. Moisture
will shift northwards tonight out of the Atlantic with the most
likely locations to see continued rain in southern Vermont and
Essex County in New York. These locations could see between
0.25-0.5 inches of rain overnight, with locally higher amounts
possible along the eastern slopes of the Greens. Near the
international border and in the northern Champlain Valley,
showers will be more isolated with lower precipitation amounts
expected near 0.1-0.2 inches overnight. Associated with
moisture, an 850mb jet will continue to build over the region as
the upper-level low in the Ohio Valley finally begins to move
to the northeast. 850mb winds near 50mb could be realized at
mountain summit level, though a low- level inversion within
shower activity should keep a lid on the higher gusts in the
valleys. Mountain summits could see gusts up to 40 mph with
westerly 20 to 30 mph gap winds possible in the western facing
downslope regions of the Greens tonight. These gusts could help
to limit shower activity in the western downsloped regions
through possible shadowing effects overnight. On the flip side,
in southern Vermont, this jet will help aid in localized
frontogenesis which could lead to localized heavier downpours
across Rutland and Windsor Counties. Temperatures tonight will
be warmer in the St. Lawrence Valley and northern Champlain
Valley where shower activity will be less widespread. Generally
temperatures tonight will be 50 to 55 areawide. As temperatures
cool, some patchy fog is possible in the lower Connecticut River
and Champlain Valleys overnight, though widespread fog is not
anticipated.
Tomorrow, the upper-level low arrives in New York with added frontal
forcing and additional showers. The main axis of moisture looks to
move to the east into NH late Tuesday morning, although showers will
still be possible in southern Vermont, and along the Connecticut
River Valley. Frontogenesis and some clearing in the St. Lawrence
Valley underneath the upper low will lead to the development of
instability Tuesday afternoon. Probabilities of greater than 500
J/kg of SBCAPE near Ogdensburg are 100%. Given cool air aloft, LCLs
will be low with lapse rates around 6-7 C. Severe weather chances
are low however, given the likely development of widespread cumulus
limiting daytime heating and subsidence cooling tomorrow. Main
threats tomorrow would be locally gusty winds with small non-severe
hail and/or graupel given low freezing levels aloft. Shear should be
near 20-30 mph which should limit any flash flooding potential, but
we will continue to monitor conditions as they become more apparent
tomorrow. Outside of the St. Lawrence Valley, light to moderate
scattered showers are possible throughout the day. It does not look
like a full washout of a day, with shower activity not as widespread
as today. Temperatures tomorrow will be fairly similar to today with
slightly warmer temperatures from southerly waa.
Showers will taper off and become more drizzly and isolated Tuesday
night as the upper low moves directly overhead. Subsidence should
clear out any prevailing precipitation though low-level moisture
could keep some lingering drizzle overnight. Lows Tuesday night will
be a few degrees warmer than tonight with values in the low to mid
50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...The synoptic scale pattern shows
mid/upper lvl circulation finally lifting northeast acrs our fa,
while weakening. The combination of cool air aloft and embedded
s/w energy under the closed circulation wl result in additional
showers with embedded thunder on Weds. Given the timing of s/w
energy, feel the best axis of sfc based instability wl be acrs
central/eastern VT on Weds, where localized sfc based CAPE
values range btwn 500-800 J/kg. Also, directly under the
circulation wl result in very slow storm motions and weak deep
layer shear parameters, so the threat for severe is minimal.
Sounding analysis indicate relatively tall CAPE profiles up to
28kft, while pw values range btwn 0.70 and 0.90", but warm cloud
depths <8000 kft, due to cool air aloft. So thinking rainfall
rates should prevent any hydro concerns, but given the upper lvl
circulation directly overhead, we wl continue to watch closely.
Also, thinking as weak sfc heating occurs and convective temps
are reached, plenty of cumulus clouds wl develop, which is
occurring today under the circulation over the Ohio Valley and
this scenario wl limit the amount of instability available for
deep convection. Have likely pops from mid morning to mid aftn
Weds with temps in the mid 60s to lower 70s. As mid/upper lvl
circulation lifts to our northeast, precip wl become trrn
focused overnight and slowly dissipate by Thurs. Have confined
highest chc/likely pops acrs the northern Dacks and upslope
areas of the central/northern Greens on Weds night. Additional
qpf wl be <0.25" on Weds night. Have trended lows on the warmer
side of guidance, given clouds and lingering mtn precip.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...One mid/upper lvl trof wl be replaced
by another closing and deepening cyclonic circulation for
Friday into Saturday acrs the NE CONUS/Mid Atlantic region.
Similar to a winter like pattern the timing of s/w phasing and
eventual track of sfc low pres wl determine the placement of
highest pops and heaviest qpf. Some 12z guidance is slightly
more progressive and less amplified with mid/upper lvl trof per
the CMC/UKMET solutions, while the ECMWF/GFS show the potential
for a widespread wetting rainfall late Friday into Saturday. NBM
indicates 40 to 60% probability of qpf >0.25" late Fri into Sat
over eastern and southern VT, and <30% over the SLV. In
addition, cool northerly flow and progged 925mb temps only in
the 5-7C range would support highs struggling to reach 50F
eastern cwa, including the NEK, while the SLV would be the
warmest with values in the l/m 60s with less rain/higher cigs.
For now have increased pops into the high chc (35 to 50%)
category late Friday into Saturday with highest values acrs our
eastern sections. However, if trends cont to support a ECMWF/GFS
solution, these wl need to be increased, especially CPV and
points eastward. Sunday crntly is looking to be a drier day with
building high pres, but lingering mid/upper lvl trof, caa, and
final s/w energy could produce some mtn focused precip,
especially Sunday morning. Did note a pocket of cooler temps
aloft acrs our cwa at 12z Sunday with progged 850mb temps <0C,
supporting below normal temps. Finally high pres builds into our
region with drier conditions and seasonable temps late Sunday
into next Monday. Highs warm back into the mid 60s to lower 70s
with lows mid 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Light rain showers will continue
primarily at southern/western portions of the airspace through
the next 6 hours. Thereafter, a slug of widespread rain may
push northward through a swath of much of Vermont from RUT to
MPV to BTV. Aside from RUT and MPV where MVFR cloud decks
prevail, ceilings may remain VFR through the period with some
lowering to MVFR probable at BTV and SLK at times after 12Z.
Cannot rule out brief IFR/LIFR ceilings associated with the
rain, especially overnight. Associated low level moisture in
central/southern areas will yield mountain obscurations.
Outside of MPV/RUT, relatively high cloud decks, light
precipitation, and strong flow aloft, should contribute to visibilities
remaining largely P6SM. One exception would be after 18Z with
any scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms directly
hitting a terminal, most favored for MSS.
The low level jet will produce LLWS and turbulence areawide
through 12Z, with southeasterly flow trending southerly as
speed shear dominates over directional for most locations
except for MSS. Surface winds will tend to be 5 to 10 knots, or
11 to 15 knots at RUT where some 25 knot gusts will be possible.
Then the jet relaxes, with some lingering stronger flow at MPV
and RUT; some gusts to near 20 knots will be favored at these
sites through the remainder of the period.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Danzig
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Danzig/Kutikoff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fairly prolonged rainfall event to commence early Tuesday
across much of southwest Kansas, continuing through mid-late
Wednesday.
- Widespread rainfall totals 1"+ likely (70% or greater chance)
across much of southwest Kansas, especially far southwest
Kansas near Elkhart.
- Isolated rainfall totals (10% chance) up to 2.75" possible in
same region described in previous bullet.
- No severe thunderstorms are forecast given southwest Kansas
remaining in the cool side of this storm system.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
The main forecast challenges continue to be upcoming rain event with
respect to amounts, duration, and location of highest totals when
all is said and done. The early afternoon water vapor loop and
objective analysis from the RAP model showed the center of the 500mb
low spinning across eastern Arizona. A fairly weak, lead shortwave
trough rotated around the east side of the trough axis/low earlier
today, resulting in the initial axis of precipitation from the Texas
Panhandle down toward the Red River. The Texas Panhandle portion of
this precipitation was continuing north into far southwest Kansas
but was weakening as it was doing so, which all models suggested.
There is expected to be a continued weakening and eventual
dissolving of this initial rain area, so POPs will remain quite low
for this afternoon and this evening, confined mainly to far
southwest Kansas.
The main mid-level potential vorticity (PV) anomaly tied to the
upper low itself will rotate through the base of the trough and
round the southeast periphery of the upper low later tonight across
southeastern New Mexico. The significant upward vertical motion tied
to the poleward trajectory of this intense PV anomaly later tonight
will manifest as a large area of strong to severe storms across much
of Southwest and West Texas as 850mb moisture transport vectors will
be greatly pointed toward Midland to Lubbock region of West Texas.
While the emphasis will be on the strong/severe convection late
tonight across West Texas, very intense upward vertical motion will
extend well northwest into east-central and northeastern New Mexico
through the night. By 12Z (7 AM CDT) Tuesday, the 500mb low center
will be located near ABQ with strong south-to-NNW flow across West
Texas into southeastern Colorado/far southwest Kansas. This is a
classic 500mb pattern for heavy precipitation on the High Plains for
any time of year, especially mid-Spring. The mid-latitude cyclone
will undergo fairly rapid occlusion early on Tuesday as the center
of the cyclone moves from central New Mexico early morning Tuesday
to the northern Texas Panhandle by Tuesday evening.
The evolution of the occlusion process, where it will be occurring,
and the overall slow forward motion of the cyclone itself will all
favor a prolonged rainfall event for southwest Kansas. This
continues to set up quite well for much of the DDC forecast area
with the exception of our far northeastern areas such as Trego,
Ellis, Rush counties. It`s fairly unusual for Elkhart to be the
potential big winner of a large scale rainfall event for our
forecast area, but that continues to be the case given the above-
mentioned meteorological reasoning of how this cyclone will mature,
occlude, and track. The main body of rainfall will move in on
southwest Kansas by daybreak, and while not everyone will see
continuous rainfall all day, rain areas will likely weaken as they
head north only to redevelop back to the south/southwest as we
remain well within the cool/moist conveyor belt of the mid-latitude
cyclone all day and into Tuesday Night. Looking at the latest
deterministic ECMWF, it keeps the 700mb saturated RH and deformation
axis squarely over the heart of southwest Kansas through much of
Tuesday Night into the morning Wednesday before finally shifting
east later in the day Wednesday. Thus, while precipitation rates
will not be all that great (like they will see farther south across
Texas and Oklahoma), the longer duration of light to moderate
rainfall will add up to the tune of 1 to 2 inches across much of the
southwest Kansas region, especially along/south of Highway 50 and
along/west of Highway 283. This is all reflected quite well in
latest NBM QPF amounts of 1.5 to 1.75" 50th percentile for Dodge
City, Garden City, Elkhart, to Scott City. Isolated upper end
rainfall totals of 2.75" or so will be possible as well, as seen in
the 90th percentile NBM QPF numbers.
Light rain is likely to continue through late in the day Wednesday
and perhaps into Wednesday Night east of a Dodge City to Ashland
line. After this storm system finally exits for good, we will enter
a drying out period later in the week into the weekend as upper
level high pressure builds in. This will also result in a gradual
warming trend, however very warm temperatures well into the mid to
upper 80s are not expected until some time early to mid next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
Expecting decreasing flight conditions today as a weather system impacts
the terminals. -SHRA and even -TSRA will spread northward through
the day. IFR to even LIFR cigs associated with the precipitation
will spread over the terminals. This activity should not be severe,
but visibilities might be reduced 3 to 6 sm in the heavier activity.
The reduced cigs will continue through the rest of the forecast pd.
Winds will start out light SE but become E and then NE 15-20 kt with
gusts around 25-30 kt as the day progresses.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
935 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Only minor changes to tonight`s forecast with adjustments for POPs
for near Flagler county and for the marine waters. Models seem to
be a bit overly aggressive with convective development there rest
of tonight. Patchy fog and stratus suggested by HRRR early morning near
or just north of JAX metro but appears to be too probability to
include at this time. Lows tonight will drop down to the upper 50s
to near 60 northwest zones and including Suwannee Valley area,
and lower to mid 60s elsewhere.
For Tuesday, some minor changes to the temps and POPs. Best chance
of afternoon showers and storms will be over the southeast zones
where sufficient moisture and lift will be available, mainly near
the east coast sea breeze, outflows and lake breeze boundaries.
Current marine forecast looks good with little change.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025
A frontal boundary has stalled just south of the area and out over
the local waters bringing mostly dry and sunny conditions north
of I-10 with areas to the south getting some chances (20-40%) of
rain and isolated storms into the evening hours, pushing out over
the water after sunset. Daytime high temperatures will peak in
the mid to upper 80s over northeast Florida with southeast Georgia
in the low to mid 80s. Overnight, rain and isolated storms shift
to the offshore waters with lows dipping into the upper 50s to mid
60s, with the warmer temperatures closer to the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025
Cold front will begin to lift back north into NE FL as a warm
front Tuesday, resulting a few showers and thunderstorms over
north central FL. On Tuesday night the boundary lifts north to
near the GA/FL line. This boundary will remain nearly stationary
on Wednesday, helping to focus convection. The boundary will lift
into SE GA Wednesday night, providing convergence there for
showers through the night.
Temperatures will be a little above normal this period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025
The frontal zone will waiver north and south across the area this
period. Waves will move along this boundary from west to east this
period, resulting in rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Periods
of heavy rainfall will be possible.
Temperatures will run above normal Thursday, then below normal for
Friday through Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025
VFR will prevail this period. This evening, scattered to broken
cumulus mainly over SGJ this evening and few to scattered over
rest of the northeast FL TAFs. Some MVFR vsby possible for VQQ
late tonight around 07z-10z. Then on Tuesday, increased mid to
high clouds but VFR cigs. Some cumulus possible around SGJ but
most of the other sites will have dry low levels so not cumulus
included at this time. Sfc winds will be light westerly but SGJ
and SSI will be have Atlantic sea breeze winds this evening.
Winds will be light and variable later tonight. East coast sea
breeze winds will develop for coastal sites Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025
The frontal boundary has stalled across the north-central Florida
waters bringing a few showers out over the local waters with a
chance of some storms possible into the evening. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms continue for areas south of St. Augustine
through Tuesday. An unsettled, stormier weather pattern is
expected Wednesday through the end of the week as areas of low
pressure form along fronts meandering across the region. Small
craft conditions are not expected through the end of the week.
Rip Currents: A marginal moderate rip current risk today for NE FL
beaches where breezier SE winds have developed with the east
coast sea breeze. A low risk today for SE GA beaches and all local
beaches expected Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 56 86 61 82 / 0 10 0 50
SSI 67 83 69 82 / 0 10 10 60
JAX 61 90 66 87 / 0 10 10 70
SGJ 65 86 69 87 / 0 20 10 70
GNV 60 91 66 90 / 0 20 10 70
OCF 62 91 67 91 / 0 30 10 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
730 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will slowly lift across the Ohio Valley through
Tuesday and then across New England mid-week, while a cold front
over eastern NC pushes east offshore.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 730 PM Monday...
The primary axis of storms has moved east of the CWA along a
progressive outflow boundary, and while there is some lingering weak
instability in the eastern Piedmont, the severe threat has ended and
the Watch has been canceled. 22Z surface analysis showed an area of
lower pressure on the Piedmont along the primary surface cold front,
which extends from the primary low over the OH Valley through WV to
the SC coastal areas. Immediately ahead of the front, dewpoints are
still in the lower 60s, as opposed to mid 40s behind the front in
the western Piedmont. Given the lingering moisture and weak surface
convergence along the cold front and outflows, cannot completely
rule out a shower across the eastern half of the area later this
evening, but drying aloft and implied subsidence will limited
initiation.
Areas north and east of the Triangle also run the risk of fog
overnight and this is supported by HRRR vsby forecasts.
Lows will settle in the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Monday...
After the front exits the region, high pressure will prevail Tuesday
and Wednesday. Thus, Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry. However,
there is a low chance of showers in the southwest on Wednesday
evening as a mid-level disturbance is possible in the flow. Any rain
that may form is expected to be light. Otherwise, temperatures both
days should be near normal. Highs both afternoons should be in the
mid 70s in the northwest to the mid 80s in the southeast. Lows
should generally be in the 50s both nights.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 223 PM Monday...
The upper low presently over Arizona will gradually open up and
eject into the southern Plains by the middle of the week, inducing
quasi-zonal flow across the southeastern US on Thursday. At the same
time, a northern stream trough will dive southward from the Great
Lakes into the Mid Atlantic while deepening as it does so. The
combination of moist advection ahead of the southern stream trough
and upper level forcing from the intensifying northern stream low
should result in unsettled weather across the region Thursday into
Friday. As is usually the case with slow moving upper lows, trying
to time out the exact details of when/where precip will fall is
challenging, but today`s 12Z deterministic and 00Z/12Z ensemble
cluster analysis support PoPs in the 30-50 percent range during this
time period with the highest values on Friday. The biggest
differences noted through the cluster analysis are whether or not
the upper low will provide a glancing blow of forcing before rapidly
moving toward New England, or if it will slowly drift into the Mid
Atlantic and linger into the weekend. This is the biggest area of
uncertainty that will need to be resolved as we get closer to
Thursday/Friday.
In the wake of the departing upper low this weekend, broad longwave
troughing will remain in place along the coast, with a secondary
area of low pressure potentially forming to our south and riding up
the coast early next week. This would also promote a period of
unsettled weather, although perhaps not to the same extent. Cluster
analysis once again supports maintaining at least some mention of
precip this weekend into early next week, but only to the tune of 20-
30 percent PoPs.
With an overall theme of troughing, cloud cover, and unsettled
weather overall, afternoon highs are likely to remain at or below
normal through early next week with readings in the mid 70s to lower
80s. Expect near normal overnight lows with temps in the low to mid
50s. The exception would be on Thursday as the area should be
positioned within the warm sector of the approaching northern stream
trough. Look for highs to reach the low to mid 80s, with mild
overnight lows in the 60s Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 710 PM Monday...
Storms have moved out of the area and VFR conditions have returned.
A lingering moist airmass will support patchy fog as early as 03z at
RWI and potentially as far west as RDU with the saturated soils from
storms this afternoon. Model guidance shows some dry air over the
western Piedmont will expand eastward and may help disperse any fog
that develops through 07z, although among latest NWP guidance, a
slowing trend is being noted and would give more time to produce
very shallow fog. RWI may have the best chance to see patchy dense
fog. West-southwest winds will increase from late morning through
the afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts possible.
Outlook: Dry/VFR weather is expected through at least Wed. Scattered
shower and isolated storm chances are expected in the S (FAY) late
Wed and areawide late Thu into Thu night, but VFR conditions will
generally dominant. Chances for showers will continue into the
weekend, with best chances south (FAY).
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...Swiggett/BSD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
848 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
- Rain and thunder chances return late tonight and spread across
the region on Tuesday. There is a limited heavy rain and flood
risk Tuesday into Tuesday night, especially across southeast
Oklahoma. There is a limited severe risk, mainly across
southeast Oklahoma.
- Spotty rain and thunder chances will persist thru Friday.
- It`s looking like another nice weather weekend ahead.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
The going short term forecast is mostly in good shape. The band
of showers that moved into southeast Oklahoma has dissipated, so
PoPs were trimmed back the next few hours. Maintained a slight
(10-20%) chance of a shower through the evening hours in extreme
southeast OK, slowly expanding overnight, but otherwise the
forecast is on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight-Tuesday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
Current surface analysis indicates a warm front lies across
southern TX, with surface ridging still in place over the
Mississippi Valley. A drier easterly wind has been maintained over
the region thru the day. Looking aloft, upper level low pressure
was centered near the Four Corners, with a PV max rotating around
the base of the parent trough over the Baja.
An initial wave of mid-level isentropic lift has produced a band
of showers and storms that has spread farther north and east than
the model blend (NBM) forecast would indicate. While it is likely
that this band will eventually fall apart with eastward extent as
CAMs indicate, it is still uncertain where this will occur so
will throw in some low PoPs down in SE OK for the evening.
The upper low will begin to move east while the PV max over the
Baja rotates around the base of the trough and ejects into the
High Plains on Tuesday. Large scale lift will increase beginning
tonight, with storms breaking out over the High Plains.
Eventually, the storms will grow upscale into a band of rain and
storms and sweep east across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The latest forecasts indicate that the warm front will lift north
across TX, but should remain well south of the Red River. With the
warm sector staying out of our area, the severe potential is
limited quite a bit and confined mainly to areas near the Red
River. Less intense and more progressive moving storms will limit
the heavy rainfall and flood risk as well. The HRRR has worst case
1 to 1.5 inch amounts across most of the area, more like 1.5 to 2
inches down closer to the Red River. Isolated heavier amounts
could occur mainly down there, and this is where the flood risk
would be highest. Therefore, the going flood watch will be left as
is.
The main idea for the PoP forecast into Tuesday night is for the
band of showers and storms to eventually lift north and east out
of the area. Have trended PoPs lower from SW to NE.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will persist Wednesday
and Thursday as the main upper low approaches and slowly moves
into the region. While deep layer shear is forecast to be stronger
across southern Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon, storm chances are
pretty small in that area which will limit potential. Weak shear
near the upper low will limit potential on Thursday. Locally heavy
rainfall could certainly occur these 2 days, but it`s unlikely
that this will create a significant flood concern.
The system will be shearing out and getting absorbed by a system
diving in from the north by Friday, with the best rain chances
mainly down in the south and east. By Friday evening rain chances
are done as the system moves away, and a quiet and tranquil
weekend is in store. Two weekends of nice weather in a row in
May? We`ll take it.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025
High clouds will remain common across the CWA tonight ahead of a
shortwave rotating through the base of a parent upper level low
Tuesday. As this wave lifts into the region, scattered/broken mid
clouds along with rain showers are forecast to spread from
southwest to northeast across the CWA during the day Tuesday.
Thunderstorm potential will exist over the CWA, though the greater
potential looks to be south of Interstate 40 and will add
VCTS/Prob30 for thunder to MLC/FSM. Within the precip, a period of
MVFR to potentially IFR conditions are forecast Tuesday afternoon.
Light/variable to easterly winds are expected through the TAF
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 75 53 68 55 / MMM 0 90 80
FSM 77 55 73 58 / MMM 0 80 80
MLC 76 55 68 56 / MMM 20 90 60
BVO 76 48 71 53 / MMM 0 80 90
FYV 73 50 73 54 / MMM 0 80 80
BYV 73 50 71 55 / MMM 0 50 60
MKO 75 54 68 56 / MMM 10 90 80
MIO 73 50 72 56 / MMM 0 70 80
F10 74 54 66 56 / MMM 10 90 70
HHW 76 57 64 59 / MMM 20 100 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT Tuesday through late Tuesday night for
OKZ049-053.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20