Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 05/02/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1038 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
will move across eastern New York and western New England ahead
of a warm front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
return for tomorrow with a more widespread rainfall likely over
the weekend. Daily periods of rain may continue through early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1035 pm EDT...A warm front continues to approach from
w-cntrl NY and PA this hour. Some scattered showers continue to
move across the Adirondacks, west-central Mohawk Valley. The ALY
sounding is dry below 700 hPa with the mid and high cloud
increasing. There is limited elevated on the 00Z KALY and KBUF
soundings. We kept a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
forecast. We adjusted the PoPs based on the latest radar and
3-km HRRR trends. The showers and isolated thunderstorms
overspread the rest of the region between 11 pm and 2 am based
on the latest HRRR. Lows will be in the 40s to lower to mid 50s.
Previous discussion...
Dry conditions today comes to end tonight as an approaching low
pressure system arrives to the Great Lakes region bringing 40
to 60 percent chances of rain showers to eastern NY and western
New England throughout the overnight hours. Light rainfall
accumulations between 0.1 inches and 0.25 inches are in the
forecast through 8 AM tomorrow. High temperatures tomorrow range
in the 70s and 80s. With periods of sunshine and daytime
heating, we could see some strong thunderstorms tomorrow evening
for locations in the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:
- Rain showers continue into Saturday with a few thunderstorms
becoming strong to severe (15-29%)
Discussion:
Latest high resolution model guidances are in support for rain
showers to be very scattered tomorrow evening and diminish for
the overnight hours before returning once again for Saturday
morning and afternoon. The low pressure system sticks around the
Great Lakes region during this timeframe. Depending on
environment conditions and an advancing cold front, latest
information supports a few storms to become strong to severe for
locations south and east of Albany. The primary hazard with any
developed thunderstorm Saturday is strong winds greater than 50
mph. While there could be some small hail as well with storms,
the primary concern is going to be the gusty winds. The most
likely (30%) timing for storms Saturday is between 3 PM and 9
PM. Warm temperatures are in store for Saturday ranging in the
upper 60s and low 80s. Latest probabilities for 24 hour
precipitation amounts greater than 1 inch from Saturday
afternoon to Sunday afternoon is between 60 and 75 percent.
Beneficial rain showers continue throughout the night Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Periods of rain is the key message for this timeframe. A closed
low pressure system continues to bring chances of rain showers
(30- 60%) every day from Sunday to Wednesday. A few rumbles of
thunder can`t be ruled out during the afternoon and evening
hours Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, a rainy and dreary start to
the first week of May is in store. High temperatures throughout
the week range in the 50s and low 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00 UTC Sat...VFR conditions expected prior to 0400 UTC
with mid and high clouds increasing for KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF, as
the warm front approaches. Scattered showers with a few
thunderstorms will overspread the TAF sites between 0400-0800
UTC. Vsbys will be VFR/MVFR with cigs gradually falling to MVFR
levels in the 1.5-3 kft AGL. The showers will persist until
0900-1200 UTC with a threat of some IFR cigs at KPOU/KPSF. We
were more confident at KPSF. The MVFR/IFR cigs will last most
of the morning, as the region gets in a warm sector. Expect
cigs to rise to VFR levels 16-19 UTC with an isolated to
scattered threat for a showers or thunderstorms in the mid to
late pm. We used PROB30 groups for KALB/KPSF/KGFL in the 19
UTC/Fri to 00 UTC/Sat time frame.
The winds will be southeast to south at 5-10 KT with slightly
stronger winds at KALB with channeled/funneled flow up the
Hudson River Valley. Some gusts will be around 20 KT there. The
winds will become southerly after daybreak at 5-10 KT with some
gusts 15-20 KT in the late morning into the afternoon. Low-
level wind shear will become a threat at all the TAF sites
between 03-06 UTC as the low level jet at 2 kft AGL increases to
30-45 KT, as the sfc winds are generally under 10 KT. LLWS was
kept in the TAF sites until 12-15 UTC, except at KALB it was
removed at 08 UTC, but may need to be added further if the sfc
winds are blowing at lower magnitudes.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula/Webb
NEAR TERM...Wasula/Webb
SHORT TERM...Webb
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Wasula
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
841 PM MDT Thu May 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry Friday into Sunday.
- Pattern change late Sunday into early next week as the chance of
preciptiation returns along with cooler temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Convection in our east has just about completely dissipated as of
0230Z. We are undergoing clearing skies and rising heights
associated with a rather strong ridge over the Pacific NW that is
expanding eastward. Light winds along with the clear skies will
yield a seasonably chilly night with lows in the 30s to around 40F
most places...and notoriously chilly spots (e.g. Baker &
Sheridan) dropping to near 30F. HRRR still not showing fog but
given recent rain showers just before sunset and surface dew
points still in the upper 30s, patchy fog seems plausible for our
far east. Forecast is in good shape. JKL
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The rest of today through Saturday...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into this
evening, with the best chance (50-70%) east of Billings, although
enough instability is present for a shower or two as far west as
Big Timber. No strong storms are expected, although some small
hail (< 0.5") is possible with any thunderstorms today.
For Friday into the weekend, upper level ridging will build in,
bringing dry conditions and increasing temperatures. By Saturday,
highs will be in the 70s to low 80s, around 15-20 degrees above
normal. Archer
Sunday through Thursday...
Sunday will start out warm and dry under a ridge of high
pressure. By the afternoon and evening, clouds will begin to
increase from the west as our next weather system, a splitting
trough, approaches our region. While the main feature with this
splitting trough will be a large low pressure system developing
over the south-western United States, the northern portion, a
shortwave trough, looks to be the main player for our region.
Ahead of this system, showers and a few thunderstorms are possible
generally around and west of Billings Sunday afternoon and
evening (15 to 70 percent, greatest over the higher terrain). A
cold front is then expected to push through the region sometime
Sunday evening and night, switching winds out of the north. With
this front and the passage of the shortwave trough, the chance of
precipitation continues Monday into Tuesday (30 to 70 percent over
the lower elevations and 70 to 80 percent over the higher
terrain, both decreasing into Tuesday). Because we will be in-
between the split trough, uncertainty still remains on the
precipitation forecast. If the low pressure system to the south
moves a bit more north, longer duration precipitation could occur
over our area. Will have to see how deterministic model runs trend
as we get closer to the event.
As far as precipitation potential goes, northerly winds behind
the front will enhance precipitation over and near the foothills.
At this time, most of the area has a high chance of seeing at
least a wetting rain (0.10 inches or more) outside of eastern
Montana around Miles City to Baker where there is only a moderate
chance. Probabilities of 0.25 inches or more drop off with there
being a 60-70 percent chance over the foothills, 50 percent chance
off the foothills through Billings, and 25 percent chance around
Miles City to Baker. For precipitation type, snow levels look to
begin around 10,000 feet Sunday which will be something to watch
for shower/thunderstorm development over the higher terrain.
Behind the front Sunday night into Monday, snow levels look to
drop down to around 6000 feet.
Temperatures will be in the 70s to mid 80s Sunday and 50s to 60s
Monday. As higher heights build into the region through the work
week, drier conditions and warmer temperature look to return.
Arends
&&
.AVIATION...
Late tonight into Thursday morning, fog is forecast over far
southeastern Montana. Any fog that develops will dissipate once
the sun comes up. VFR conditions expected Friday. Arends/Torgerson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/072 046/079 048/081 047/053 039/061 042/074 048/078
00/U 00/U 01/U 57/W 42/W 11/U 01/U
LVM 032/073 043/077 046/076 042/051 034/061 040/073 046/075
00/U 00/U 04/W 76/W 31/B 01/U 12/T
HDN 033/072 040/081 045/083 046/055 038/062 040/076 045/079
00/U 00/U 01/U 47/W 53/W 11/U 01/U
MLS 034/069 041/079 048/084 049/059 040/063 042/074 050/079
00/U 00/U 00/U 25/W 32/W 11/U 00/U
4BQ 033/065 040/076 049/081 049/060 040/059 042/070 048/075
10/U 00/U 00/U 14/W 43/W 11/U 01/U
BHK 030/064 037/075 044/080 047/064 037/062 039/069 044/074
20/U 00/U 00/N 13/T 32/W 11/U 00/U
SHR 030/068 039/076 043/080 043/053 034/056 037/069 042/074
00/U 00/U 01/U 37/W 64/W 21/U 01/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
928 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
into the evening, a few of which may be strong to severe
- Breezy today, with southwesterly winds 15-25 MPH gusting as high
as 35 MPH
- Cooler with periodic showers this weekend into early next week
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025
Low pressure was found over Michigan this evening, providing broad
cyclonic flow across the region including Central Indiana. Radar
shows a line of thunderstorms over southern Central Indiana,
progressing eastward, but diminishing in intensity as heating and
instability is lost. Southwesterly lower level flow was in place
across Central Indiana. Looking aloft, water vapor showed ridging
in place over the east and west coast with a trough in place over
the northern plains and Great Lakes.
HRRR suggests continued convection within the cyclonic flow
streaming across central Indiana through 09Z. Given recent radar
trends along with the loss of heating, believe this is a bit
overdone and showers and storms will continue to diminish the next
few hours. Thus will keep low chance pops through about 03z-04z, but
trend toward dry weather overnight. Skies should remain partly
cloudy overnight with the cyclonic flow in place along with
lingering convective debris CI.
Slight cold air advection is in place tonight. Still with dew points
in the 50s, ongoing lows in the mid 50s appear on target.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025
Central Indiana has remained in the warm sector of a broad surface
low moving into the Great Lakes. With that said, destabilization in
the warm sector has been capped slightly due to a persistent mid
level cloud deck. Current ACARS sounding are showing some erosion of
this diabatic cap, but we are likely still an hour or two from
efficient storm initiation.
This upper wave will be rather amplified in the upper levels leading
to strong upper level dynamics. However, the low level kinematics
will be lacking without any strong negative height tendency over the
region. Additionally, deep cooling aloft should lead to steep lapse
rates over central Indiana this afternoon with storms initiation
between 4PM and 7PM EDT. If these storms are able to reach the
strong dynamics aloft, greater ventilation could lead to clusters
and modest organization, with the primary severe threat being 1-2"
hail. There is a non-zero damaging wind threat, but will heavily
rely on collapsing suspended cores, as linear organization is not
expected.
Without strong forcing in the buoyant sector, overall rain amounts
should be spotty today, but generally less than a half an inch, with
most locations receiving less than a tenth.
Another pressure trough will pass through the Ohio Valley tomorrow,
but the stronger upper level dynamics will remain mostly to the
east/southeast of central Indiana. There is some low level jet
development in the warm sector tomorrow, leading to some low level
pressure depletion and low pressure development. The resulting
boundary is expected to be south of central Indiana at this time,
but there is some variability leading to a very low severe threat
over far southern central Indiana for tomorrow afternoon. Rain fall
rates along this boundary are likely to be higher and more prolonged
leading to a narrow corridor of 1"+ QPF over southern Indiana.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025
Saturday through Monday:
The main area of energy within the upper trough is gradually
expected to depart to the northeast this weekend. With that said,
there is a trend towards the mid level vorticity lobe detaching
from the upper level jet stream, and remaining aloft through the
weekend and into early next week. The bimodal distribution has
significantly swung towards this aforementioned solution leading to
fairly high confidence in a cut off low becoming the primary weather
driver this weekend. With the cut off low aloft, temperatures will
remain mild with highs in the upper 50s to 60s.
There is a small chance for the moderate rain along Friday`s
pressure trough to remain within central Indiana into Saturday
morning. Otherwise, any rainfall should be scattered to isolated and
light. No thunder is expected Saturday or Sunday.
Next Tuesday Onward:
With the cut off low taking hold, a large omega block is expected in
the later portions of the long range. This will hinder any trough
development over the CONUS keeping conditions fairly stagnant for
most of next week. As the low departs Tuesday, a slight warming
trend is likely, but temperatures should remain within the 70s.
Precipitation trends are much more variable leading to low
confidence on potential rainfall beyond next Thursday
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 653 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025
Impacts:
- Showers w/ scattered thunderstorms expected through 02Z.
- Brief MVFR cigs possible overnight.
Discussion:
Scattered diurnal convection amid cyclonic flow due to low pressure
moving through the Great Lakes will continue to wane this evening.
HRRR shows as heating is lost this evening and as the surface low
pulls northeast, expected areal coverage of ongoing showers will
continue to diminish and end. Until then VCSH as coverage remains
limited.
Models overnight suggest residual lower level moisture may result in
some MVFR cigs toward daybreak, and this has been included.
Small showers and storm chances will return on Friday afternoon as
diurnal heating along with an approaching upper trough will provide
favorable conditions for shower development. For now, have used as
VCSH mention Friday afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...Puma
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1050 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Still a chance for a thunderstorm or two this evening but the
threat of severe weather has ended.
- The periodic potential for showers and thunderstorms continues
at times into Sunday.
- Some of the storms Friday and Saturday could be strong to
severe, with gusty to damaging winds and heavy rain the primary
threats.
- Above normal temperatures will persist through Friday, followed
by below normal temperatures from Saturday into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
but also keeping the small PoPs and thunder chances into the early
morning hours. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO, and
SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
23Z sfc analysis shows low pressure to the north of Kentucky as a
cold front has pushed into central Kentucky while the prefrontal
trough is taken the strongest storm threat east of the state early
this evening. More isolated activity can be expected through the
rest of the evening - especially where pockets of instability
remain in the Cumberland Valley. Currently temperatures are
running in lower 60s northwest in the rain cooled air while lower
70s are noted in the southeast. Meanwhile, amid light and variable
winds in the wake of the storms, dewpoints are generally in the
upper 50s to lower 60s across the area. Have updated the forecast
mainly to fine tune the PoPs and thunder chances through the
evening and overnight per radar and CAMs trends but also added in
the latest obs and tendencies for the T/Td/Sky grids. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones, SAFs, and HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
A warm and rather humid afternoon is underway in eastern Kentucky as
a weak boundary/surface trough approaches from the west. The surface
boundary is supported by a 500H shortwave ejecting out of a large
scale trough over the Central CONUS. Out ahead of this feature,
widely scattered light showers and areas of thicker mid-level cloud
cover have limited destabilization, particular for the southeastern
half of the JKL forecast area. Temperatures range from the mid 70s
in the southeastern portions of the CWA up to the upper 70s/lower
80s along/west of the Pottsville Escarpment. Sunshine has likely led
to the best destabilization in the warmer locations. Upstream, a
line of showers and thunderstorms has developed along the surface
trough and just ahead of an 500H vort max. This line has largely
behaved so far this afternoon, though a few segments have been
strong with gusts up to around 40 mph.
Through the remainder of the afternoon through mid-evening, the
shortwave trough and the attendant line of convection will pass from
west to east over eastern Kentucky, largely exiting through Pike
County by about 9 PM. The combination of weak-moderate instability
(~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and modest shear (30-40 kts EBWD) under a
passing 40-50+ kt 500mb jet will support a severe thunderstorm
threat, especially over the northwestern portions of the JKL CWA
through, at least early evening. The primary severe threat appears
to be damaging wind gusts with linear convective segments.
Supercellular structures are also possible, but weaker winds toward
the equilibrium level should limit cell intensity and longevity. If
a supercell structure develops, an isolated instance of large hail
or a brief isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The counties of
greatest concern has been placed under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
through 7 PM. Further south and east, the shear and instability will
be weaker, limiting or inhibiting the severe threat.
A few showers could linger overnight but forcing will be limited to
just a few passing subtle disturbances in the southwest flow aloft.
However, plenty of low-level moisture should support abundant low
clouds and perhaps some fog in places. Overnight temperatures will
be mild, generally settling into the lower 60s. Looking ahead to
Friday, weak height rises in the morning/midday should favor mainly
rain-free conditions for most. However, another upper-level
disturbance ejects out of the large scale trough to our west and
lifts across the Lower Ohio Valley during the late afternoon and
evening. The 15z RAP is supportive of up to 2,000 J/kg of MUCAPE
building ahead of the disturbance, fueling the potential for
additional showers and thunderstorms, primarily Friday evening;
however, the shear for overall storm organization remains weak
(generally under 30 knots). Linear shower/thunderstorm
clusters/segments are possible with damaging winds again the primary
concern. Expect another warm day with high temperatures in the upper
70s to lower 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 543 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025
The long term weather forecast here in Eastern Kentucky looks
seasonably cooler, but rather wet. On Saturday, a deepening upper
level trough is expected to become cut off from northern stream
atmospheric flow. There is increasing model consensus that the
resultant closed low will spin around the Greater Ohio River Valley
through early next week. The associated surface cyclone and frontal
boundaries will likely occlude and remain in the proximity of the
forecast area through Monday before the entire pattern propagates
east. This leads to a weak ridge nudging into the region by mid-
week, but confidence in sensible weather specifics degrades towards
the end of the forecast period.
Saturday`s forecast will be defined by continued thunderstorm
chances out ahead of the parent trough and an approaching cold
front. Guidance depicts relatively higher amounts of bulk shear on
Saturday compared to Friday, but antecedent cloud cover and
evaporative cooling will likely limit the amount of instability
realized. Despite the muted diurnal heating curve, mild AM lows near
60 could still allow afternoon highs to approach the lower 70s. This
translates to only modest amounts of CAPE, and storms may struggle
to become surface based. Given the shear, gusty winds appear
possible in any sustained cells, and SPC has accordingly upgraded
the entirety of the forecast area to a Level 1/5 Marginal Severe
Weather Outlook on Saturday. We will need to monitor mesoscale
trends in cloud cover and boundary positioning closely in this time
frame, as well as flash flood guidance. Due to the persistent rain
chances, WPC has maintained the marginal excessive rainfall outlook
into Saturday. The primary concern would be for localized instances
of minor small stream flooding in any areas that saw higher rainfall
totals heading into the weekend. Widespread river flooding still
looks unlikely in the latest probabilistic hydro guidance suite, and
modeled PWAT values are unlikely to exceed 1.5 inches.
The cold front looks to push through the area on Saturday night, but
an occluded front will linger closer to the Ohio River. Cooler/drier
air is poised to wrap around the back side of the parent low and
into SW portions of the forecast area by Sunday night. As the low
wobbles about, shower chances will linger in the forecast on Sunday
and Monday, especially north and east of the KY-15 corridor.
Temperatures should remain seasonably cool given the synoptic
features at play, with highs in the mid/upper 60s. Headed into
Monday night, skies may begin to clear in response to a building
ridge. This could lead to modest ridge-valley splits, but these
appear more likely on Tuesday night after the low shifts further
northeast. The daytime hours on Tuesday will feature highs warming
back to near 70 degrees under sunnier skies, but lobes of vorticity
rotating around the nearby low could still yield scattered showers.
Beyond then, guidance diverges. Some resolve a ridge directly
overhead, while others place us under the influence of a second
troughing feature ejecting out of the Plains. The former would allow
the drying/warming trend to continue into Wednesday, but the latter
would yield more wet weather by late next week. The blended model
guidance used to populate the forecast grids at that temporal range
splits the difference; it depicts a warming trend but also
increasing rain chances into Thursday. Before that, expect
seasonably cool temperatures and repetitive rain chances as an
active weather pattern settles into Eastern Kentucky.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR conditions are now prevailing at all the TAF sites for the
00Z issuance time in the wake of late afternoon and evening
convective activity. Aside from the small chance for a stray storm
during the rest of the evening, we are now in a lull in the
shower and storm activity lasting through the night with
additional rounds of convection likely later Friday on into
Saturday. Winds will be light and variable away from any
convection through the night before upticking from the southwest
at 5 to 10 kts during the day, Friday. Finally, some fog can be
anticipated in the valleys overnight and may briefly impact a
terminal or two.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
911 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 907 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025
- Another chance of severe weather will occur Friday afternoon.
The primary threats will be damaging wind and hail. A tornado
cannot be ruled out.
- Rain will exit the area Saturday afternoon and result in a cool
and dry pattern through early next week. Highs are forecast to
be in the 70s with lows in the 50s and 60s Saturday through next
Monday.
- A wet and unsettled pattern looks likely from midweek through
late week next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025
Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South this evening with
temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Outside of one dying
thunderstorms across portions of northeast Arkansas, the remaining
showers and thunderstorms are out of the region. The remainder of
tonight should remain dry with another round of showers and
thunderstorms moving into the Mid-South Friday morning.
ARS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025
The latest GOES East satellite imagery reveals thinning clouds at
this hour. Temperatures have hovered over the 70 degree mark most
of the afternoon, but have jumped into the mid and upper 70s over
the past hour. Instability remains limited across the region with
around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Bulk shear is on the order of 25 to 30
knots and some CIN remains over the Tennessee River Valley. Aloft,
a weak shortwave continues to impinge on portions of NE Arkansas
and the Missouri Bootheel. This will be the area to watch for
strong to severe thunderstorm development over the next couple of
hours. The main threats will be damaging winds with any storms
that can develop. Mid level lapse rates remain rather poor, or
around 5.5 to 6 C/km. This will limit updraft strength and hail
formation. Any storms that do form should dissipate after sundown.
The next system to watch will be an MCS ejecting out of the
Southern Plains overnight into tomorrow morning. Instability will
be rather low in the morning, but enough to support a few
marginally severe wind gusts. There may be a brief break before
another round of storms moves in by late morning and early
afternoon. The severe risk has been increased to a Slight Risk
(2/5) tomorrow, mainly for the afternoon storms. The current area
highlighted is along and south of I-40, where a cold front will
setup. HREF Joint probabilities of 500 J/kg of SBCAPE, 30 knots of
Bulk Shear, and CIN greater than -25 J/kg will climb to 60%
nearly areawide by early afternoon. This parameter space will
support a low to medium risk of damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and a tornado or two. Lapse rates look particularly impressive
tomorrow afternoon, climbing above 7 C/km, which will support
robust updrafts and hail formation. The limiting factors will be
decreased instability due to widespread dense cloud cover and
ongoing showers and thunderstorms.
The severe weather threat will push east of the Tennessee River
by late afternoon and early evening. Trailing showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours, but
should remain below severe limits. Showers will slowly pull away
Saturday morning and dry air will quickly work its way south
into the Mid-South Saturday afternoon and evening.
Below normal temperatures will ensue on Sunday, as lows fall into
the upper 40s and lower 50s in the morning. Highs will only peak
in the 60s Sunday afternoon. Monday will be another chilly morning
with readings in the mid to upper 40s. Highs will top out in the
low to mid 70s.
Temperatures will rebound back to near normal by Wednesday as
upper level heights build in. A wet and unsettled pattern looks to
set up by midweek as a cutoff low parks near the Four Corners
Region and ejects several weak perturbations through late week.
This will trigger at least a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms
each day. Heavy rainfall could become a threat, if the pattern
stays blocked through next weekend. Stay tuned.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025
Convection ongoing at this time should wane with the loss of
daytime heating and will likely not pose a threat to any of the
terminals. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
heading into Friday morning across the Mid-South. A leading
cluster of showers and thunderstorms may impact JBR/MEM/MKL in the
morning with another round of convection during the afternoon at
all terminals. Timing generally follows the 18z HRRR as storms
moves west to east across the area. Winds out side of thunderstorms
will generally be less than 10 knots. A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings
will prevail on Friday with showers and storms in the area.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...TAB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1120 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaches tonight and lifts through Friday morning. A
cold front to the west gradually draws closer Friday night into
Saturday. A large cut-off low pressure system will bring unsettled
conditions to the area from the weekend through at least mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lowered POPs over the next couple of hours based on current
radar and HRRR forecast which shows little precipitation during
this time frame. Otherwise, forecast is on track.
The stretch of nice spring weather begins to break down as a warm
front approaches from the west and south tonight. The first half of
the evening should manage to be dry. However, as warm air comes in
over the top of the boundary layer look for clouds to lower with
rain / showers developing from southwest to northeast later in the
evening and into the overnight further east. Have gone with low end
likely PoPs across a portion of the area (mainly further east), with
a period of chance PoPs most elsewhere. As the warm front gets close
with some extra lift, there is the slight chance of a rumble of
thunder (mainly for western most sections from very late in the
evening until just after midnight) as there is just a hint of
elevated instability as per some BUFKIT forecast soundings. Later at
night as the low level winds continue to veer gradually look for
some patchy to perhaps some areas of fog. This would be mainly
towards and after 08z as the sfc warm front gets on our doorstep.
Once the area of showers tapers off and gets to the east, this is
when the chances for fog go up, more so approaching daybreak.
Temperatures should average just above average with clouds and
an onshore flow.
On Friday NWP remains confident in getting the warm front through
and getting sfc winds around to more of a SW direction for the mid
to late morning. This should allow for the sky to brighten and more
in the way of sunshine towards midday and the afternoon as the
region gets purely in the warm sector. Temperatures should get well
above normal inland and not quite as warm along the coast, but still
above normal for the most part. Lower and middle 80s can be expected
inland to the N and NW, with 70s in most places, and a few 60s
across the east end of LI and portions of SE Southern CT. Guidance
does indicate some instability, with a few hundred Joules of CAPE.
However, the better forcing will still reside well west of the area
and forecast sounding are suggestive of a weak cap in place. Thus,
have kept mainly slight chance to chance PoPs the further west one
goes Friday afternoon and evening with the slight chance of a few
thunderstorms. Coverage at this time looks limited with SPC placing
mainly the western portions of the area in a marginal risk of severe
weather for this reason. CAMs thus far are not too suggestive of any
meaningful coverage in terms of convection during Friday as the
afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The same line of thinking carries over into Friday night. With a
cold front remaining back to the west the higher PoPs and convective
chances will to the west. But still cannot rule out that some shower
/ thunderstorm activity gets in some during the night. With this
said, much if not all of the night remains dry. On a SW synoptic
flow temperatures will remain above normal with lows mainly in the
middle 50s to middle 60s. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out late
Friday night where any showers occur earlier in the night, but this
should may be the exception rather than the rule.
On Saturday the cold front will progress further east. The morning
should remain primarily dry on a S to SW flow out ahead of the
front. Partial sunshine should help temperatures warm to around 80
inland and west, to mainly the lower and middle 70s and the upper
60s getting further east and closer to the coast. SPC has placed
much of the area in a marginal risk of severe weather. A southerly
wind off the colder water should limit severe chances further east.
However from around the NYC metro and west where there will be less
marine air to ingest into any developing convection and thus any
storms could produce strong gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. An
early look at some of the CAMs shows more coverage across the area
due to increased forcing from the approaching cold front. The
greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms will be further west
and northwest, and later in the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended period will be dominated by a large cut-off low
pressure system which will bring periods of rain, possibly with
embedded thunderstorms, from the weekend through at least the middle
of next week.
By Saturday night, a digging trough over the Midwest is expected to
completely cut off from the main flow and meander generally in place
over the Ohio Valley through much of the period before eventually
being reintroduced to the flow sometime mid-to-late week. During
this time, we will be positioned downstream of this trough and our
weather will be dominated by the surface frontal system that will be
placed just west of the area.
Additionally, a surface high pressure over the Western Atlantic
combined with the surface low pressure to our west will allow for a
continuous S/SE flow through the timeframe. This will advect a
continuous stream of moisture from the sub-tropical Atlantic,
resulting in overcast skies and periods of rain through the period.
When it is not raining, there may be ample enough low level moisture
to produce drizzle and/or fog, especially at night.
With the upper trough just to the west, there may be enough
instability each afternoon and evening for there to be isolated to
embedded thunderstorms, especially in any more organized convection
that forms, mainly for the western portions of the area.
Due to the inherent uncertain nature of a spinning but nearly
stationary cut off low pressure system, it remains especially
difficult to pinpoint any periods of more persistent or heavier
rainfall or thunderstorms. At this time, global models seem to
suggest that the Sunday night - Tuesday night timeframe may have the
best combination of moisture and lift to allow for a more widespread
steadier to locally heavy rainfall, but this may change in future
runs. WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
during this timeframe.
Models also suggest that a widespread 2-3 inches of rainfall is
possible for much of the area, especially for western areas which
may be more favorable for convection at any given time. Locally
upwards of 4 inches isn`t ruled out, though this accumulated
rainfall is over the entire extended period, generally from Saturday
night through Wednesday.
The low pressure is expected to move out of the area sometime
Wednesday night through Friday morning. Despite ample cloud cover
and rainfall, temperatures through the timeframe should be fairly
seasonable to slightly below average, with highs each day generally
in the 60s, possibly a bit warmer for the NYC metro. Lows each night
will remain in the 50s, courtesy of the ample amounts of moisture.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front then approaches tonight, lifting north of the
terminals Friday morning.
MVFR conditions have developed across most terminals, and will
continue to overspread the area rather quickly over the next
hour so, followed by IFR after 06Z and LIFR possible towards
daybreak at some locations. IFR conditions could move in earlier
than this given how quickly the MVFR conditions moved in. There
is a low chance of VLIFR conditions from around 09Z through
around 12Z Friday.
Scattered showers are also possible overnight ahead of the
approaching front, along with an isolated thunderstorm. VFR
conditions will return between 12-15Z at the metro terminals as
the warm front pushes north.
SE winds around 10 kt will continue through this afternoon.
Winds then diminish to around 5 kt overnight before returning
out of the S after the warm frontal passage Friday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of both the deterioration to sub-VFR conditions overnight
and improvement back to VFR Friday morning could be off by 1-2
hours.
There is a low chance of VLIFR conditions at most terminals,
but highest chances for KJFK and KLGA.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Night: VFR.
Saturday: MVFR or lower cond possible with chance of
showers/tstms. S winds G15-20kt.
Sunday: MVFR or lower cond possible with chance of showers/tstms.
Monday: MVFR or lower cond possible with chance of showers/tstms.
E-NE winds G20-25kt.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower cond possible with chance of
showers/tstms. S winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A SE flow turns more S tonight, and then increases some into Friday.
Small craft conditions start to become more likely during the
afternoon out on the ocean waters with marginal small craft seas and
gusts approaching 25 kt. More widespread small craft conditions will
be likely for the ocean into Friday evening on a S to SW wind. Ocean
seas should get closer to 4 ft towards Saturday morning as sub
advisory conditions continue on the non-ocean waters. After a brief
break from advisory level conditions during Saturday morning, by
later Saturday afternoon small craft conditions should return. Small
craft conditions are also possible for the south shore and eastern
bays of Long Island by late in the day.
SCA conditions are possible through Saturday night before waves
subside and gusts largely drop below SCA thresholds for Sunday.
Increasingly S/SE flow on Monday may allow for near SCA gusts for
all the waters and wave heights on the ocean nearing 5 feet once
again.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Long duration rainfall this weekend through midweek will likely
result in a widespread 2-3 inches of rainfall, possibly locally
higher in any thunderstorms. WPC has the area in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall Sunday through Tuesday. While flash flooding
isn`t expected, minor urban or poor drainage flooding is possible at
any point Saturday night through Wednesday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to midnight EDT Friday
night for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MW
NEAR TERM...JE/JP/MW
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JE/MW
HYDROLOGY...JE/MW
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
651 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms this
evening through Friday morning mainly across parts of the
Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts are the main concerns.
- More widespread thunderstorm chances are expected Friday with
strong to severe storms and localized heavy rainfall possible.
- An active weather pattern will continue into early next week. We
will need to monitor for more severe weather and locally heavy
rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
into this evening, mainly across the northern Edwards Plateau and
northwest Hill Country. Coverage should remain fairly limited,
although any storms that develop could become strong to severe with
large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
A cold front will move into the Big Country Friday morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front
during the early morning hours, mainly across the northern Big
Country. A few strong to severe storms are possible. This front will
then steadily progress south through the day. By early to mid
afternoon, an increasingly unstable environment will develop ahead
of the front with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing along the boundary. The HRRR is the slowest with regard to
the front, with the front still across the Concho Valley by early
afternoon. The NAM Nest is a few hours faster, with the front mostly
south of the Concho Valley by early afternoon. The exact timing of
the front will determine where storms will initiate during the early
afternoon hours. At this time, the highest confidence is that storms
will develop south of a Mertzon, to San Angelo, to San Saba line. If
the front is an hour or two slower, similar to the HRRR, this
activity could have more of an impact on San Angelo. Strong to
severe storms will be possible, with large hail and damaging winds
being the main hazards. Expect cooler temperatures to filter in
behind the front. Highs will generally be in the 70s, except across
the I-10 corridor where highs will be in the low 80s. Temperatures
behind the front may drop into the 60s during the afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025
An active pattern remains in place across West Central Texas, with
the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for
Friday and for the first half of next week. Models show a series
of upper-level disturbances and associated surface fronts bringing
additional rainfall and potentially some thunderstorms to West
Central Texas next week. However, there remains some uncertainty
in where these showers and thunderstorms will develop, and some
recent models are beginning to trend drier for next week. As a
result we generally carried only chance and slight chance showers
for much of next week, with slightly better confidence overnight
Monday into Tuesday where we kept some areas of "showers likely".
For any thunderstorms that do develop, generally we are expecting
the primary hazards to be large hail and damaging winds. The is a
Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms in place for areas south of a
Mertzon to San Saba line, and a Slight Risk for Excessive
Rainfall south of an Abilene to Sterling City line for Friday.
Given the likelihood of cloud cover through out the long term
forecast, high temperatures from this weekend into much of next
week remain fairly seasonable in the 70s lower-to-mid 80s through
Thursday next week. However, if the drier model trend mentioned
earlier starts to take shape, that could lead to more sunshine and
some slightly warmer temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025
Multiple aviation weather items going on with the area TAFS in
the next 24 hours. Scattered thunderstorms are over our southern
and southeastern counties this evening. May have new development
as far north as an Ozona to Eldorado to Richland Springs line. The
KJCT TAF site has already been affected with reduced visibilities
and ceilings from a storm. The KSOA and KBBD TAF sites may also
be affected this evening. Localized gusty winds in excess of 35
knots are possible in and near this convective activity. These
storms are expected to dissipate late this evening or early
tonight. With development of a low-level jet, at least the KABI
and KSJT terminals should have gusty south winds going into the
overnight hours.
Low cloud development is expected, from south to north, late
tonight into Friday morning. Have some uncertainty at this time on
how patchy vs widespread the low cloud cover will be. Generally
expecting MVFR ceilings with the low cloud cover.
Southeast to south winds tonight will shift to north-northeast
with a cold frontal passage during the day Friday. The cold front
will move south across the area Friday. Timing of the wind shift
is expected to be 14Z at KABI, 17Z at KSJT, 20Z at KBBD and around
21Z at KSOA/KJCT. South of KABI, cloud ceilings should climb to
or above 3000ft by mid-to-late morning prior to arrival of the
front. Behind the front, expect low-end VFR to MVFR ceilings.
With the approach of the aforementioned cold front, showers and
thunderstorms may develop south into the Big Country and affect
KABI in the early to mid-morning hours Friday. Additional showers
and storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and
affect mainly our southern TAF sites (KBBD, KJCT and KSOA). With
timing and placement uncertainties, carrying Prob30 groups at our
TAF sites at this point.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 62 71 52 73 / 20 60 10 0
San Angelo 60 76 54 76 / 10 70 20 10
Junction 61 82 57 76 / 20 80 50 10
Brownwood 60 77 54 76 / 20 70 30 0
Sweetwater 60 69 51 73 / 20 60 10 0
Ozona 61 79 57 76 / 20 60 30 10
Brady 62 78 57 75 / 20 80 40 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19