Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/29/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1009 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
With high pressure in control, sunny and mild weather is
expected for today. It will remain warm into Tuesday, although
an approaching frontal boundary will bring the threat for
showers and thunderstorms for late in the day and into Tuesday
night. Dry and comfortable weather is expected for the middle of
the week, but more showers are possible for Thursday night into
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...No significant changes with this update. Lowered min
temperatures a few degrees in some areas (mainly Adirondacks)
based on current obs/trends.
.PREV DISCUSSION[0726]...Beautiful spring day continues across
eastern NY and western New England today with a ~1028hPa high
centered in the mid- Atlantic and upper level centered over
western NY sliding east. Outside of some innocuous cirrus clouds
spilling over top the incoming ridge, plenty of sunshine
continues. Given the very dry mass sampled by the 12 UTC ALY
sounding today (PWATs ~0.25"), dew points have trended lower
into the 30s and we incorporated the NBM 5th percentile guidance
to better reflect current conditions. The very dry air mass and
efficient boundary layer mixing up to 800hPa seen on forecast
soundings will support warm spring temperatures today and we
leaned on the warmer side of the guidance envelop as
probabilistic guidance shows 20 - 40% chance for high
temperatures to exceed 74 degrees from the Capital Region
southward into the mid-Hudson Valley.
Mainly clear skies tonight as some cirrus clouds continue to
spill overhead. Winds remain mainly light overnight but could
turn a bit stronger towards 09 - 12 UTC as the pressure gradient
ahead of the incoming boundary tightens. Given warmer daytime
temperatures and a slight breeze developing later tonight,
overnight lows will not be quite as cool as this morning.
Expecting most to only fall into the mid to upper 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
- The Storm Prediction Center maintains its slight risk (level
2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms mainly north and west of the
Capital District tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening
with damaging winds (15-29% chance) the primary hazard.
Discussion:
A very potent shortwave that will be responsible for severe
weather in the Upper Midwest will be lifting northward into the
Great Lakes and southern Ontario tomorrow afternoon into the
evening. With a strong area of high pressure positioned off the
Mid-Atlantic coast, an intense southwesterly low and mid-level jet
with winds 40 - 60kts will be directed into the Ohio Valley and
western NY. This jet will funnel a very warm and moist airmass
into the Northeast with temperatures likely reaching well into
the 70s to even around 80 in valley areas (greater than 75%
chance for highs to exceed 75 degrees for valley areas)
tomorrow afternoon as dew points climb into the 50s. While very
strong height falls will spread downwind of the approaching
shortwave, the strongest forcing looks displaced to our west
during peak heating hours and is favored over western NY/PA and
Ohio coinciding with SPC`s enhanced risk zone. However, as
morning sun allows the boundary layer to become well-mixed,
deterministic guidance suggest mid- level lapse rates steepen to
6 - 6.5C/km with locally steeper values even up to 7C/km.
Forecast soundings do show a mid-level cap which could limit
just how much surface based instability can generate and
guidance shows generally under 1000 J/kg of SB cape with 200 -
500 J/kg of MU CAPE. On the other hand, deep layer shear values
are quite impressive with 0-6km shear values reaching 40
to 50kts with potentially up to 60kts in the western/southern
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley as the trough approaches
late PM/evening. This corroborates with SPC`s slight risk
(level 2 to 5). Needless to say, this is certainly a high shear
low CAPE environment and as the sfc trough approaches by 18 -
21 UTC tomorrow afternoon, we will have to watch for a broken
QLCS moving eastward out of western NY towards our
western/southern Adirondack and western Mohawk Valley areas.
Despite limited instability, the strong forcing for ascent could
very well carry the QLCS eastward into western zones by late
afternoon and despite it entering into a less unstable
environment, its momentum could still allow it to survive and
produce damaging wind gusts. While the 12 UTC HRRR was less
convinced with the eastward extent of the QLCS, the 18 UTC run
is more concerning and suggests the line could even extend as
far east as the Capital District by 21 - 00 UTC. Given DCAPE
values 500 - 700 J/kg and the anticipated linear storm mode,
damaging winds will be the primary hazard should any line/bowing
segments march eastward towards the Hudson River. Locally heavy
downpours are also likely during any thunderstorms as PWATs
surge towards 1 - 1.25" ahead of the boundary.
After 00 UTC/Thurs, the line likely weakens further as it heads
towards western New England and an even less favorable
environment. We maintained shower chances for much of the region
through Midnight as the true cold front finally pushes through.
Winds shift to the northwest behind the front by the pre-dawn
hours and likely turns gusty with winds up to 25-30mph.
High pressure and a very dry air mass quickly builds into the
Northeast on Wednesday providing us with plenty of sunshine once
again. West to northwest remain gusty (gusts 25-30mph),
especially in the morning, in the wake of the cold front and
given much lower PWATs/relative humidity values, we will have
favorable conditions for fire spread. See our fire weather
discussion for more details. Otherwise, temperatures turn
cooler with daytime highs only rising into the 60s to around 70
in the mid-Hudson Valley. We turn cool Wed night given favorable
radiational cooling and a very dry air mass with overnight lows
dropping into the mid to upper 30s with around 40 in the
valley. Freezing temperatures possible in the southern
Adirondacks.
Increasing clouds expected through the day on Thursday in
response to warm air advection ahead of an approaching warm
front. Chances for showers mainly hold off until after dark when
the stronger isentropic lift arrives. Otherwise, daytime high
similar to Wednesday only rising into the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:
- Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible Thursday
night and again Friday afternoon.
Discussion:
Long term period begins at 00z Friday with dry
conditions for most areas but a surface low associated with an upper
shortwave will track through the Great Lakes region overnight. So,
the system`s warm front will lift north through our region
overnight, bringing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms with
BUFKIT forecast soundings showing some pockets of elevated
instability. With warm advection and cloudy skies, lows will be
fairly mild, mainly in the 40s to 50s. On Friday, the surface low
tracks north of the region, putting us squarely in the warm sector.
We will see a lull in precip for at least Friday morning, with
temperatures warming well into the 70s for many areas with some low
80s possible for valley areas south of I-90. Then, during the
afternoon or evening, the trailing cold front will tracks through
our region bringing additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Coverage and strength of any thunderstorms will
depend on the timing of the frontal passage and the amount of
instability available, which will hopefully come into better focus
over the coming days. Showers and thunderstorms will taper off after
sunset, with temperatures dropping into the 40s to 50s again for
overnight lows.
Saturday through Sunday night...The aforementioned cold front stalls
to the south and east of our region Saturday, and another upper
trough tracks eastwards. Ahead of the upper trough, surface
cyclogenesis occurs along the baroclinic zone. As the surface low
tracks northeastwards, it will likely bring showers to portions of
the region Saturday into Saturday night. At this time, the highest
likelihood of rain/showers seems to be for eastern areas, but this
till ultimately depend on where the front stalls and the track of
the surface low along that boundary. With the cooler airmass and
clouds/showers around, Saturday will be much cooler with highs
ranging from 50s in the high terrain to 60s in the valleys. Lows
Saturday night will be in the 30s to 40s. We finally dry out for the
second half of the weekend, although the upper trough and cold pool
aloft remain nearby, so Sunday will feature near to slightly below
normal temperatures with highs again mainly in the 50s to 60s. Lows
Sunday night will again be in the 30s to 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected to prevail
through much of the 24 hour TAF period with gradually increasing
high level cirrus clouds. Added mention of PROB30 for TSRA
starting at 21z Tuesday for KGFL and 23z at KALB, as some
storms could approach those terminals late Tuesday afternoon
into early Tuesday evening ahead of a cold front. Winds will be
southerly around 3-6 through tonight, increasing to 13-17 kt
with gusts of 20-30 kt on Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
After a cold front pushes through the region tomorrow into
tomorrow night resulting in showers and areas of thunderstorms,
high pressure and a very dry air mass moves overhead for
Wednesday. This will result in low relative humidity values
ranging 20 to 30 percent with gusty west to northwest ranging 25
to 30mph. Such conditions can elevate the risk for fire spread.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...JPV/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Speciale
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
926 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts through late tonight, followed by a cold
front Tuesday evening. High pressure briefly slides through the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. Low pressure lifts into the Great
Lakes on Thursday, with a warm front crossing the area Thursday
morning followed by a cold front Thursday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM Update...
The forecast for the rest of this evening remains on track and
no changes were needed with this update. Dry weather will
persist through tonight before shower chances increase starting
Tuesday morning. 00Z guidance is beginning to trickle in, but
will hold of on any adjustments to Tuesday`s forecast until
more guidance is available.
Previous Discussion...
The main focus for the near term forecast remains potential for
severe thunderstorms along/ahead of a cold front Tuesday
afternoon and evening, though confidence in the evolution and
overall severity remains on the lower side.
Quiet weather persists through early Tuesday. A warm front will
lift northeast across the area overnight tonight, though with
just some higher level clouds and no rain potential. Lows will
be much milder tonight, ranging from the 50s in interior
Northeast OH and Northwest PA to the low to mid 60s near the
lake and farther west across OH.
We`ll briefly surge into the warm sector for Tuesday behind
tonight`s warm front, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to low
80s and dew points climbing into the low to mid 60s. Southwest
winds will synoptically gust 30-40 MPH beneath a brisk low-
level jet, particularly outside of any rain during the late
morning and afternoon hours.
Delving more into severe weather potential Tuesday into Tuesday
evening, a robust elevated mixed layer (EML) characterized by
500-700mb lapse rates of up to 8C/km will advect east over the
region by Tuesday morning, which along with deep-layer shear
increasing to 30-40kt by Tuesday afternoon and evening gives
potential for an environment that could support all modes of
severe weather. The cold front itself pushes in from the
northwest late afternoon/early evening, with large-scale forcing
peaking between the mid-afternoon and early evening hours as
the associated shortwave trough moving through the Great Lakes
glances the local area. The overall severe risk has potential
to peak between the mid-afternoon and early evening. However,
as mentioned in prior discussions and driven home by the 12z
suite of models today, the potential for pre-frontal convection
or convective debris leftover from tonight`s convection to our
west to spread into the area by late morning or early afternoon
on Tuesday adds considerable uncertainty to the evolution of
convection across our area and the subsequent severe threat.
There are two potential triggering mechanisms for convection on
Tuesday...one will be on the leading edge of the remnant
convection or debris spreading in from the west, well-ahead of
the cold during the afternoon...and the other will be along the
cold front itself, moving in from the northwest late
afternoon/evening. The current consensus among models is that
convection will try to re-fire on the leading edge of the
incoming debris across our southeastern counties by early to
mid-afternoon before exiting east. If the debris arrives faster,
that could largely play out to our east...best illustrated by
the ARW-WRF. If the debris arrives slower, the threat during the
afternoon hours would ramp up notably across our local area,
best illustrated by the NSSL-WRF. The 12z NAM and 18z HRRR have
more of a middle ground solution, with convection firing from
eastern OH into western PA early to mid-afternoon (with at
least some severe threat) before exiting east and continuing to
grow upscale. As for the cold front itself, most models attempt
to develop at least scattered storms along it, though disagree
quite a bit on their intensity. It`s likely that the best EML
and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will be chewed up by
any afternoon convection, which could limit the severity of any
storms with the cold front itself towards the evening hours.
However, if any afternoon convection and/or convective debris is
more minimal and exits quicker, there could be more of a window
for severe weather with the cold front.
The take-home messages for the severe weather are the the entire
area remains under at least a Slight Risk (level 2/5) from the
Storm Prediction Center, with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) from
roughly Elyria to Marion points east/northeast. Damaging wind
gusts are the primary hazard, with some instances of large hail
and perhaps a brief/weak tornado threat lesser concerns. The
threat is focused between 2-8 PM. However, considerable
uncertainty exists, and it`s mainly tied to the evolution of
convection upstream of our area through tonight and how quickly
and how much debris (in the form of clouds and perhaps rain)
spreads into our area Tuesday morning/early afternoon. Stay
tuned for updates tonight and Tuesday on this forecast.
We will dry out behind the cold front through Tuesday night as
high pressure builds into the northern Great Lakes. Lows will
drop back into the 40s Tuesday night behind the front.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An active pattern is forecast to continue through the short term
period as another shortwave trough moves northeast along the leading
edge of the larger upper level trough. Wednesday morning should
remain primarily dry before a lingering boundary over the Ohio River
Valley lifts north as a warm front Wednesday afternoon. As this
boundary lifts north, warm moist air will fill in behind it and
result in a period of conditions conducive to additional
thunderstorms. There is quite a bit of spread in how much the
atmosphere destabilizes which will be highly dependent on the speed
of the warm front, however models generally have between 500-
1000J/kg of CAPE. In addition, a LLJ of 35-45 knots will nose north
across the area, providing additional support for storm development.
For any storms that do develop, the primary concern will be strong,
gusty winds with lapse rates near 10-11 C/km. There is a non-zero
chance for a tornado or two and small hail as well, but there is
less confidence in these hazards. Given the closer proximity of the
area to the low pressure center moving through the central Great
Lakes, will have to closely monitor this in the coming days for
severe threats. There is a WPC Day 4 Marginal ERO that encompasses
the entire area to account for localized heavy rainfall possible in
the strongest storms.
Highs on Wednesday will reach into the 50s along the northern tier
of counties, increasing into the mid to upper 60s across the
southern portion of the area. As the warm front lifts north, highs
will climb into the 70s across the entire area on Thursday.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s into the mid to upper 50s
for both nights.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Friday, the surface low associated with the upper level trough
will push northeast towards Quebec, moving an initial weak cold
front east across the area Friday morning before a stronger,
secondary cold front supported by the upper level trough pushes east
late Friday into early Saturday. These boundaries will both provide
the potential for showers and thunderstorms, especially along and
ahead of the secondary boundary. As the trough axis shifts east on
Saturday, any lingering showers will diminish from west to east by
Saturday afternoon. High pressure will persist for the remainder of
the period, allowing for dry conditions Saturday afternoon through
Monday.
Highs on Friday will in the mid 60s before cooling behind the
departing low to be in the upper 50s to low 60s on Saturday. On
Sunday, clearing skies and high pressure will allow for another
warming trend with highs on Sunday in the mid to upper 60s before
warming into the 70s for Monday. Overnight lows will generally
remain in the 40s, limiting any potential for frost/freeze in the
period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR will persist through at least the next 12 hours. The
forecast becomes challenging as cold front approaches from the
west Tuesday morning; guidance suggests that there will be
multiple rounds of showers/storms: the first round may occur
with warm frontal passage Tuesday morning with a better chance
of showers/storms occurring with a pre-frontal trough Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening and with the cold front Tuesday
night. While there`s relatively high confidence in overall rain
chances, confidence in thunder chances/placement is low so have
only included thunder in PROB30 and TEMPO groups for the time
being. Either way dry breaks/VFR can be expected within any dry
breaks and there`s potential for MVFR/IFR cigs and especially
vsbys in pockets of moderate to heavy rain, best chance from
18Z onwards. Thunderstorms could produce a brief period of gusty
winds with variable wind direction. Will continue to assess
guidance and will likely narrow down windows of precipitation as
confidence increases in future updates.
Southerly winds 6 to 12 knots with scattered gusts to 20 knots
are expected tonight. A 45 to 50 knot southerly LLJ will move
into the region later tonight through the predawn hours
Tuesday which will likely result in LLWS during this timeframe.
South/southwest winds will increase to 12 to 20 knots after 12Z
Tuesday with gusts to 25 to 35 knots expected areawide mid to
late morning through early evening.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms into
Tuesday night. Non- VFR appears more likely towards the end of
the week (Thu/Fri) in more widespread showers and thunderstorms
&&
.MARINE...
Calm marine conditions are expected to continue through much of
tonight as high pressure lingers over the area. Tonight, a warm
front will lift north across the lake as the parent low tracks
northeast across the western portion of the region. Winds will shift
to southwesterly and increase to 15-25 knots beginning near 10Z
Tuesday. These winds are expected to remain elevated through the
afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Once the front moves
east late Tuesday evening into the overnight hours, winds will shift
to become northwesterly and gradually diminish to 10-15 knots by
Wednesday morning. During the shift to onshore flow, waves will
build to 3-5 feet, especially across the central and eastern basins.
In addition to this overall threat, it is worth noting that there is
a potential for severe storms to impact Lake Erie Tuesday afternoon
into the evening. This may result in localized winds gusts of 30+
knots, so boaters should use caution and keep an eye on the weather
if venturing out in the rough conditions. To highlight these
hazardous marine conditions, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued
for the nearshore zones of Lake Erie.
On Wednesday, high pressure builds south across the area, allowing
for north-northeast winds of 5-10 knots to persist into Wednesday
night. Another warm front will lift north across Lake Erie on
Thursday morning as the parents low tracks northeast through the
central Great Lakes region. This will once again increase winds to
15-20 knots from the southwest. This period may need another short
fused Small Craft Advisory, although the gradient with this low is
modeled to be weaker. Winds shift to northwesterly at 10-15 knots as
multiple cold fronts move southeast across the lake on Friday and
Friday night.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
LEZ142>146.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Wednesday
for LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...15/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...15
MARINE...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
617 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Although conditional, a Moderate Risk (4/5) of severe weather
is in place for northern Iowa Monday afternoon and Monday
night with an Enhanced Risk (3/5) elsewhere. Confidence in
initiation is low, but any storms that do develop would be
capable of high end severe weather, including
strong/significant tornadoes (EF2+).
- More storms midweek with some stronger storms possible across
southern Iowa.
- Friday and Saturday will be dry with temperatures recovering
back into the 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Short Term:
A positively-tilted longwave trough encapsulates much of the western
CONUS, a closed low embedded in it over Utah. An upper-level jet has
rounded the trough base and is pulling large section of the source
wave into the Northern Plains today, generating height falls up to
10 dam there, deepening the surface low that is over the Dakotas.
Tailing to itself is an advancing dry line that will arrive in Iowa
later this afternoon. Ahead of the dry line is a surface trough. The
remaining closed low over Utah will be left to sink into the SW
US.
The surface warm front will lift into Minnesota through the day
today and set up the triple point near KFSD. An EML, sampled at +11C
from the 12z TOP sounding, will coat the state, steepening mid-level
lapse rates in the neighborhood of -8.5 C/km; this translates to
MLCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg. The midday convection will pose a
hail threat. Gradient winds increase as the system nears, increasing
the pressure gradient to around 40 ub/km, translating to sustained
winds up to around 35mph this afternoon, gusts to around 45mph. The
gusts have a better chance of being achieved in the cleared parts of
western Iowa. Have issued an SPS for this.
As we get into the late afternoon hours, clearing near the dry line
will bring surface-based convection into focus as the boundary layer
fully mixes and the ML CIN drops below -100 J/kg. LCLs are around
500m. Deep-layer shear is best across northern and western Iowa,
totaling around 60kts, but not to discount the still-supportive
40- 50 kts across southern Iowa. Shear vectors will lean more
orthogonal in relation to the dry line, supporting supercells,
those of which will have right mover motions over 50mph thanks
to the overall fast winds in the environment. The aforementioned
upper-level jet will impinge on the warm sector over NW IA, its
influence exhibited on the consistent 50kt LLJ overhead today.
That component is driving up the low-level shear over 25kts and
elongating the hodographs. Streamwise ingest in the lowest 0.5km
will be over 95%, allowing storms to realize nearly all the
low-level shear available. SRH values over 300 m^2/sec^2 are
enough to tell you that there`s plenty of potential for rotation
near the surface.
There covers the thermodynamics and organization of the environment
today, which to summarize is conducive to high-end severe weather
threats including damaging winds, very large hail and tornadoes
(some strong). The question that remains is what sources of lift
will be able to launch parcels to the LFC? At the synoptic scale,
the better height falls are in Minnesota, moving the deepening
surface feature away from Iowa. The favorable jet quadrants as well
as its warm sector crossing are also displaced to the northwest.
This explains the CI in NW Iowa, which resides closer to these
features. Summarizing the synoptic support well over our area is the
Q vectors, which diverge over us this afternoon and evening. That
leaves us to smaller scale features. We have the dry line coming in,
but warm sector winds are southwesterly, leading to poor
convergence. The dry line predictably stalls around sunset and
better frontogenetical forcing in the form of a cold front will
catch up with it, continuing the chances for storms across Iowa
before midnight. It will have the EML to overcome which is coming in
warmer than forecasted per 18z soundings. We`re at the mercy of
mesoscale features to increase convergence. Some of the HRRR runs
before 12z hinted at the slightest possibility of this in central
Iowa. The concern would be that there would be just enough for only
one or two storms, and those storms would have the warm sector all
to themselves. This is the low confidence (<10%) but worst-case
scenario for somewhere in central Iowa. Not to be neglected is
southern Iowa where it looks like there will be enough synoptic
kinematics to fire off convection in northern MO, moving into this
area. Actually, the 0-0.5km shear is better in southern Iowa, so the
all-hazards risk, including tornadoes, still holds in spite of the
stronger capping.
Long Term:
The leftover portion of the trough will be shoved eastward once a
positively-tilted trough moves in from the PNW, presenting a
southern and northern stream pair of waves to the central US. The
majority of the Gulf moisture will be tied into the southern stream,
then shunted towards the Ohio River Valley as the northern stream
deepens. There will be enough of a retreat of moisture to push PWATs
back over 1 inch which will be plenty enough for precipitation, even
convection. At the synoptic level, this is supported by upper-level
divergence and the left exit region of the southern stream jet, in
addition to Q-vector convergence. MUCAPE values may graze 1000 J/kg
by Wednesday afternoon. Can`t rule out some storm organization
potential, but the wind field loses favorability before peak heating
maximizes instability in the afternoon. Upper-level ridging replaces
the troughing by Friday which will keep us dry through at least
Saturday. Temperatures will also recover into the 70s. Active spring
weather resumes as early as Sunday once a longwave trough closes off
and moves inland on the West Coast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Frontal system moving into northwest Iowa this evening is driving
thunderstorm potential over much of the state. Storm chances will
continue at TAF sites from west to east through late evening with
all severe weather modes (large hail, tornadoes, damaging wind)
possible. Behind the front, the wind will shift from southwest to
the northwest and remain gusty. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR ceilings will
linger behind storms overnight, giving way to VFR conditions after
12z Tuesday.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004>007-
015>017-023>026-033>037.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Jimenez
AVIATION...DMD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1150 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Record/near record warmth tomorrow as high temperatures push into
the upper 70s to mid 80s. It will be windy as well, with peak
southwest-west gusts of 40-45 mph in the afternoon.
- There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight into
Tuesday. If any thunderstorms develop tomorrow afternoon (11 AM - 5
PM), they will have the potential to become severe and produce
damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, storms late tonight/tomorrow
morning will be capable of small hail and sub-severe gusty winds.
- Much cooler Tuesday night into Wednesday, with frost possible
north of M-59 around sunrise Wednesday.
- Soaking rain arrives late Wednesday night-Thursday and persists
into early Friday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...
A dry airmass at the surface and differential warm advection aloft
into the midlevels will lead to stable VFR conditions overnight.
Deeper moisture arrives as cyclonic flow trajectories take hold
after 10Z. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible and
included a TEMPO group. Thunderstorm development is then possible
along a cold front between 17-21Z. Uncertainty exists on the coverage
of convection along the front and whether or not the better
development will occur to the east of the taf sites. Did maintain a
Prob30 group for the afternoon +TSRA potential. If activity occurs it
will be very brief.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for ceilings aob 5000 feet late tonight and Tuesday morning.
* Low for thunderstorms Tuesday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
DISCUSSION...
Active upper level pattern with several upper level waves back
across the Rockies with a strong northern stream upper level trough
tracking east through Central Canada. Interaction of multiple waves
makes for difficult forecast tomorrow. The seasonably strong surface
low (994 MB) entering west central Minnesota will be tracking off to
the northeast and reaching the Central Ontario/Quebec border toward
12z Tuesday, absorbed by the northern stream trough. Although the
main upper level wave/cold pool (-24 C at 500 MB) will linger back
across the Four Corners region, there does appear to be a
shortwave/jet streak coming out, enhancing the upper level jet over
the Central Great Lakes region for tomorrow. The question for
tomorrow continues to be timing of the cold front and if we can
overcome warm mid levels and erode the cap in place. Location of the
right entrance forcing of the upper level jet will be a big factor,
and there are still discrepancies. Strong southwest low level jet to
transport a good deal of moisture into Lower Michigan, with 850 MB
dew pts pushing 12 C and 700 MB dew pts reaching around zero Tuesday
morning, all near daily record daily values for southeast Michigan
sounding climatology. Moisture axis and mid level instability axis
already begins to pull east by mid day. Even so, MLcapes expected to
build to 1000-2000 J/kg on Tuesday, with NAM exceeding 2500 J/kg
while 12z HRRR is closer to SBcapes of 2000 J/kg with the cap
holding as the cold front moves through during the mid afternoon.
Unidirectional flow in the low levels with the front, and not much
low level convergence makes this challenging forecast with the
amount of convection developing along the front, if any. With the
strong wind fields and previously mentioned capes, damaging winds
will be main hazard with the potential severe storms. SPC day 2
continues to maintain slight chance risk, but remains conditional,
and really can`t justify carry more than chance pops (20-40%) for
showers/thunderstorms with the aggressive mid level dry slot
overlapping the cold front. Elevated activity around 12z Tuesday
actually has better chance (30-50%) with the steep mid level lapse
rates. Regardless of storms during Tuesday, with the boundary layer
mixing during the day as temps reach near/record values in the upper
70s to mid 80s degrees, expecting wind gusts topping out 40-45 mph
range. This is supported by local probabilistic guidance and a wind
advisory is possible with the 50+ knots of westerly flow at the 850
MB level.
Cooler and dry with near normal temps on Wednesday as ridging at all
levels arrive. With clear skies and winds going calm toward sunrise,
mins in the lowers 30s (north) to lower 40s (south) expected,
resulting in frost north of M-59.
A moisture laden low pressure system then on track to move into
Lower Michigan on Thursday, phasing and deepening with the northern
stream. Thus, movement will be slow, and not exiting the Central
Great Lakes until Friday morning. Total rainfall amounts of half an
inch to one inch seem likely at this point, with the potential for
higher amounts with mesoscale banding and/or convection.
MARINE...
Broad area of high pressure has expanded across the east coast while
a strong area of low pressure has move over the Midwest on it`s way
northeast through the northern Great Lakes today. The low will
continue into Ontario/Quebec tonight while the cold front remains
draped back to the southwest. This setup places the eastern lakes in
a strong warm advection setup today. The gradient will tighten
between the two main systems but the warm air will bring stability
to the region limiting the gust potential through tonight. Winds
should still get up to around 25 knots thus Small Craft Advisories
are in effect for all nearshore zones and Lake St Clair tonight
through Tuesday. A cold front then sweeps through Tuesday afternoon
with possible showers and thunderstorms. Main question is how do the
winds respond behind the cold front for the evening? Models and
ensemble solutions show the potential for a short window of gales in
the afternoon around 4pm to 8pm across northern Lake Huron and
Saginaw Bay. Probabilistic guidance shows only about a 30-40% chance
of gales in that time. Have decided to hold off on a Gale Watch or
Warning at this time due to low confidence and short window of time.
So expectations are for a period of stronger flow to around 30 knots
with a few hours with isolated gusts to gales. Will continue to
monitor for trends in gale potential. High pressure builds in on
Wednesday with wind becoming light and variable. The next low is
then set to arrive Thursday into Friday.
CLIMATE...
The record highs for Tuesday, April 29th.
Detroit: 83 Degrees (Set in 1899)
Flint: 82 Degrees (Set in 1942)
Saginaw: 84 Degrees (Set in 1970)
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ442-443.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ421-422-441.
Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for LCZ460.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......DK
CLIMATE......SF
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
649 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
...00z Aviation Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Supercells capable of producing high impact severe weather
(including tornadoes) are likely later this afternoon and
evening across portions of NE Kansas and NW Missouri.
- Strong to severe storms are possible overnight tonight into
early Tuesday morning across most of the region as a cold
front moves from northwest to southeast. Although severe
weather will still be possible, these storms should be lower
intensity/impact than those of this afternoon/evening.
- Additional periods of showers and thunderstorms likely
tomorrow through Thursday.
- Marginal risk for severe storms again on Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
500 mb analysis shows high amplitude positively tilted
troughing across the western CONUS, with a large 50+ knot
southwesterly mid level jet from NW Mexico all the way into
northern Minnesota, with a more narrow corridor of 70+ knot
winds from the Oklahoma Panhandle into Duluth MN. The 850 mb low
is currently centered over the MN/ND/SD tri state border, with
35 knot southwesterly 850 mb winds across the CWA (higher toward
the Iowa border). Meanwhile, a 996 mb surface low has made its
way into central Minnesota, with a dryline extending southward
into far SE Nebraska and eastern Kansas. Out ahead of the
dryline are dewpoints on the order of the mid to upper 60s. With
weak height falls and some convergence along the dryline,
convective initiation along the dryline is likely by around 530
to 6 pm from roughly Nebraska City toward Junction City. These
storms should rapidly become supercells, with 2500 to 3000 J/kg
of SB CAPE and 50 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear available, and will
move east northeastward into our CWA by around 7 pm (NW
Missouri and NE Kansas). These storms will be capable of
producing very large hail (tennis ball sized or larger),
damaging wind gusts up to 75 mph, and also will have the
potential to produce tornadoes (potentially strong and
relatively long tracked tornadoes). 18z HRRR guidance wants to
rapidly diminish these storms as they travel east of the
Missouri River (likely due to increased CIN), but this seems a
bit unrealistic as the very well developed supercellular
updrafts should be able to sustain themselves even into a
modestly capped environment. Most likely, these initial
supercells should remain north of the KC metro, but 18z HRRR
guidance suggests that northwestern and northern portions of the
metro could be impacted by a supercell later this evening (8 -
11 pm).
By later tonight, the cold front is progged to catch up with the
dryline, and push from northwest to southeast through the
region. This may generate a broken line or line of thunderstorms
along the front overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning,
with the overall severe threat being quite a bit lower with this
activity compared to this afternoon and evening`s supercells
(although wind gusts up to 70 mph, hail up to ping pong balls,
and a few brief tornadoes will still be possible).
By tomorrow evening, the front should stall out somewhere near
the MO/AR border, with west southwesterly mid level flow
continuing over the region thanks to troughing across the Desert
Southwest. This will yield continued chances for periods of
showers and thunderstorms across the far southern areas of the
CWA through Tuesday night, although this has shifted further
south compared to previous model runs. By Wednesday, the mid
level trough swings its way across the Southern Plains, with
the surface low moving across the CWA Wednesday afternoon. This
will expand high chances (70 to 100%) for widespread showers and
thunderstorms to essentially the entire CWA for this time
frame. This will also pull the warm front northward on
Wednesday, allowing for modest instability to overspread the
region. This paired with strong deep layer shear will support a
low end severe threat on Wednesday afternoon/evening, and as
such SPC has put most of the CWA within a marginal risk for
severe storms for Wednesday. Rain chances continue into
Thursday, ending from west to east by Thursday
afternoon/evening.
While earlier model guidance was suggesting the threat for 2" to
4" of total rainfall from Tuesday through Thursday across
southern portions of the CWA, most recent guidance has kept the
axis of heaviest rainfall south of us (more toward the
Interstate 44 corridor). Thus, we have held off on the issuance
of a flood watch for now, but 1 to 2" of rainfall remains
possible from Linn County KS to Cooper County MO, which could
cause some more flooding on rivers that experienced flooding in
this past week/weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Main concern within TAF period is the potential for TSRA as
storms from the west approach and additional storms expected to
blossom overnight. Have done best to time the current
convection, primarily affecting KSTJ, but do have PROB30
mentions at KMCI as it too may be affected if any storms can
track or develop just a bit further south than current. Good
enough confidence in overnight convection to have prevailing
mentions across the sites. After about 08-09z, activity pushes
southward of the sites and VFR to prevail thereafter with winds
becoming northerly.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Curtis
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
947 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
...Short Term Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler behind a cold front Tuesday afternoon (mid to upper
60s), with moderating temperatures generally in the 70s for
the remainder of the forecast period.
- There are two additional main chances for precip over the
course of the next 7 days. The first with an upper level
disturbance late Tuesday night through Wednesday, and a second
chance late in the upcoming weekend into early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Various notes regarding recent and very short term upcoming
weather (the next several hours):
-- THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS:
- Firstly, the Red Flag Warning for several of our eastern-
southeast Nebraska counties was allowed to expire "on time" at
8 PM.
- As was fully expected, our forecast area (CWA) was essentially
entirely spared of any severe thunderstorm threat that has
instead unfolded (as expected, albeit in fairly spotty
fashion) off to our northeast, east and southeast.
- Our main issues late this afternoon-early evening involved a
surge of slightly-sub-severe northwest winds (peak gusts
mainly 45-55 MPH) that tracked from north-northwest to south-
southeast across our CWA, initially driven and peaking in
intensity in our north-northwest counties by a combo of
convective outflow from weaker thunderstorms and a surging
cold front, and then with speeds letting up slightly as the
front pushed through our south-southeast counties. Given
recent dryness and freshly-tilled fields, there were various
areas of blowing dust/reduced visibility (localized under 1
mile) along the surging front and lasting for about 15-30
minutes in its wake. Given the rather brief duration of "dust
issues", we opted against formal Dust Advisories and instead
handled with Special Weather Statements.
- THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS (OVERNIGHT):
- We are maintaining a few more hours of rain shower/sprinkle
chances within mainly the northwest half of our CWA (as far
south as roughly an Elwood-Grand Island-Osceola line), but
high-res models (and radar trends) suggest this light
activity is already steadily vacating from southwest to
northeast.
- Post-midnight, winds will slowly/gradually continue to
diminish, with speeds no higher than 10-15 MPH most areas by
sunrise. Tues AM low temps will bottom out 20+ degrees cooler
than this morning`s values most areas ((mainly low 40s).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Mostly clear skies prevailed across the region today, with some
CU developing early this afternoon across our western and
eastern fringes. So far this CU has behaved as there is a fairly
strong CAP in place, but continue to expect some convective
development as we continue through the afternoon hours, but
primarily east and north of the local area.
For this afternoon and tonight, expect a line of thunderstorms
to develop to our northwest by the 4-5 PM timeframe, near a cold
front that will race southeast across the local area this
evening. A few of these storms could reach portions of south
central Nebraska mainly north of Highway 92 either side of 00Z,
before diminishing in coverage and intensity by mid-evening.
With most of the CAMs not initiating any storms locally,
downplayed the severe threat in the HWO, limiting the mention to
areas north of Highway 92 - where the 18Z HRRR has a couple of
storms clipping this area around 7 PM.
Ahead of the front, temperatures have climbed across the area
this afternoon, with many locations topping out in the 80s. These
warm temperatures have promoted mixing to above 700 MB, helping
to mix down lower dew points across the area, with widespread
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions currently
being observed. Continue to expect critical conditions for a few
hours late this afternoon/early evening for area east of
Highway 281, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect until 8 PM
CDT.
Behind the cold front, expect gusty northwesterly winds to
continue across the area through the overnight hours. These
elevated winds will help keep the atmosphere fairly mixed
overnight, preventing temperatures from plummeting too quickly,
and pulled the mention of patchy frost from the grids for Dawson
county Tuesday morning. For the daytime hours Tuesday, winds
should relax through the afternoon hours with noticably cooler
highs in the 60s (albeit those will be fairly "normal" for late
April).
As the remnants of an upper level low then exit the southwest
and emerge into the southern plains Tuesday night, expect
increasing moisture and precip chances from the south overnight
Tuesday, with some light precip along with an isolated non-
severe thunderstorm or two possible across the local area
Wednesday. That said, despite a more than 24 hour period of pops
in the forecast with this disturbance, QPF amounts are
anticipated to be on the lower end, with most locations
receiving less than 0.10" with this disturbance.
Thereafter...weak ridging aloft should keep the area dry and
mild (70s) for the latter portion of the week, with another
upper level disturbance possibly undercutting the ridge and
emerging from the southwest late in the weekend. Still some
uncertainty with the timing and intensity of this system late in
the weekend, but we do have some corresponding low pops Saturday
PM through Sunday, with the better chance for more widespread
precip likely coming with a stronger upper level low early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions will give way to a brief period of MVFR for both
sites overnight, with conditions improving by daybreak Tuesday.
Tonight...initial concern focuses on arriving hybrid cool
front/outflow boundary producing strong northwest winds.
Upstream observations have indicated gusts exceeding 40 to 45
knots for many sites and will begin both forecasts with these
stronger gusts lasting for an hour or two at most. Eventually
as the cooler air works in behind the front, low stratus will
develop and encompass both GRI/EAR. Did introduce MVFR CIGs for
both sites but as winds lighten and begin to veer while high
pressure works in, expect a quick departure of clouds leaving
clear to mostly clear skies by 29/12z through the end of the
valid forecast period.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...NMJ/NWS LBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
812 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon through tonight. A significant severe weather outbreak
is possible this evening into the early overnight hours. Most
of the forecast area has an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms, with parts of central WI in a Moderate Risk.
- Thunderstorm chances are lower during the late afternoon.
However, any storms that do develop could quickly become severe,
with tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail all possible.
Confidence in the details is lowest for this round of storms.
- The final round of storms is forecast to impact the area this
evening into the early overnight hours. Confidence is higher
that a line of storms will impact the area, with potential for
widespread damaging winds and embedded tornadoes.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Short Term...Tonight and Tuesday
Scattered elevated convection has develop across central WI this
afternoon as mid-level lapse rates have steepened. Radar returns
are indicating some non-severe hail is occurring with in these
storms. Expect these pulse-type storms to grow in coverage over the
next few hours, however, the likelihood that any cells become severe
is low, as the greatest SBCAPE values remain along and west of the 1-
35 corridor in central MN and RAP analysis soundings still show a
strong cap around 850mb.
CAMs continue to show the best window for severe thunderstorm
initiation between 00-02Z as the cap erodes. Strong moisture
advection will create a much more unstable atmosphere as a warm
front currently draped across southwest WI moves north and east.
Initially discrete supercells will be possible across central WI as
storms initiate. SBCAPES increasing to 100-1500 J/kg along with
strong low-level (0-1km) shear 30-35kts (SRH 290 m2/s2) does point
to a potential tornado threat with any storms that do develop. Steep
mid-level lapse rates also bring severe hail, up to 2" into play
with the strongest storms. As the event progresses and a cold front
starts to push into the western part of the forecast area storms are
forecast to grow upscale into a QLCS. As this occurs damaging severe
winds gusts along with embedded tornados will become possible. If an
organized QLCS is able to develop it will likely remain severe as it
moves east across the region, however, storm intensity may start to
weaken as they approach Lake Michigan. The severe weather threat is
expected to end around or just after midnight.
Behind the cold front there may be some lingering thunderstorms
Tuesday morning, but the risk for any severe storms at that time
will be low. Winds behind the front also look gusty for Tuesday with
peak gusts reaching 30-40 mph.
Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Tuesday-Monday:
Cooler conditions are expected on Tuesday in the wake of the surface
cold front as Canadian high pressure builds into the area.
Instability quickly wanes as drier air works in, but a few showers
remain possible as a mid-level shortwave trough swings through.
Otherwise, broad troughing will overspread the area later in the
week as northern/stream shortwave troughs transect the central US.
Although details of this system are somewhat unclear, rain chances
increase by Thursday (40-80%), with chances lingering into Friday.
Trends favor the area being on the cooler side of this system,
keeping any severe weather potential farther south.
The pattern looks to trend drier heading into the weekend as mid-
level ridging builds across the central US downstream from large
scale trough development across the western US. Trends favor a
return to above average temps in this regime.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 812 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Main focus will be showers and storms, some strong to severe,
pushing across the area through the late evening. Expect activity
to continue to pop up ahead of the main line, then the line of
storms will cross the area mainly between 02-06z. Overall, the
storms have been struggling to our west, but some better
organization is still possible in the next couple/three hours
then a weakening trend is expected as it pushes towards far eastern
WI. The strongest storms may be capable of producing strong winds
gusts over 40kts, hail over 1", and a tornado. Intense downpours
may also drop vsbys to MVFR/IFR at times.
South/southwest surface winds will continue to gust ahead of the
line, with winds shifting to the west then northwest on Tuesday.
The northwest winds could gust up to ~40 kts for a time Tuesday
morning, before diminishing in the late morning and afternoon.
LLWS is expected to continue across much of the area through late
tonight, due to a low-level jet of 50 to 55 kts.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....GK/JM
AVIATION.......Bersch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
623 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across
portions of north central Nebraska this afternoon and evening. The
primary severe weather concerns will be large hail, with a
secondary threat for damaging wind gusts.
- Another appreciable chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Severe potential appears low at this time.
- Temperatures gradually warm from near seasonal to above seasonal
late this week into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
A secondary cold front will continue to drop south across the region
this afternoon and evening, bringing the potential for showers and
thunderstorms across western and north central Nebraska. Better
moisture remains available north of Highway 2, with afternoon
dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s. South of Highway 2, dewpoints
remain much lower, in the low 30s. Cumulus development, including
some showers and thunderstorms are already underway across portions
of western Nebraska and is expected to continue and intensify ahead
of the cold front. CAPE values are much more substantial across
eastern Nebraska, ahead of the primary cold front. However, there is
a suggestion of CAPE values in excess of 1,000 J/kg pooling over
portions of north central Nebraska, mainly along the Highway 183 and
Highway 281 corridors. The HRRR remains quite consistent today,
suggesting initial cell development supportive of supercells across
this portion of north central Nebraska. GIven the suggested higher
cloud base with these cells, and suggested inverted V patterns in
the lowest 2 km, believe the main severe threat will be large hail,
with a secondary threat of damaging wind gusts. This is further
backed by the SPC Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across portions of
north central Nebraska this afternoon. Have trended PoPs up in the
short term across north central Nebraska through this evening. As
the cold front pushes through, expect a quick end to precipitation
this evening as storms track further east.
Tonight, though showers and thunderstorms track out of the region,
the skies remain fairly cloudy. With the front pushing through, went
ahead and lowered lows tonight by a few degrees, as inherited
temperatures were sitting on the higher end of guidance. Skies begin
to clear out around sunrise, giving way to a mostly pleasant
Tuesday. Highs climb into the mid 60s, with no precipitation
expected. Winds may become slightly breezy behind the front,
however, should remain mostly under 20 mph through the afternoon
across the region. Skies remain partly cloudy overnight, with lows
into Wednesday morning dropping into the upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
As an upper level trough pushes through the region on Wednesday,
another surface level disturbance is expected to track through the
region, bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Will need to monitor the potential
for a strong system across the southern Plains, which may limit some
of our moisture advection into the region. Afternoon CAPE looks to
be fairly low across the region on Wednesday, generally under 1,00
J/kg. Upper level winds also appear to be fairly weak, limiting
shear potential for more organized convection. Will be monitoring
short term forecast trends in case conditions change, but as of now,
not expecting storms on Wednesday to reach severe criteria.
As the trough exits the region, an upper level ridge tracks over the
region for a bit. An upper level low begins to develop across the
Desert Southwest, however, there is a bit of uncertainty in timing
for when this ejects over the Southern Plains. For now, slight
chances of precipitation are in the forecast for this weekend,
mainly due to the uncertainty in the track of the upper level low.
There is some agreement in cluster analysis placing the low over the
southern Plains on Monday, potentially bringing our next chances for
rain. However, with this pattern developing, expecting that
temperatures remain near seasonal to slightly above seasonal mid to
late week, becoming above average by the weekend. For reference, our
average highs in North Platte are in the mid to high 60s for early
May. The current forecast calls for temperatures late week in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. By the weekend, we could see temperatures in
the upper 70s, with some suggestion of lower 80s. However, a lot will
depend on how the upper level pattern develops over the next few
days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Continued aviation concerns focus on strong northwest winds in
the wake of the passing cold front/outflow boundary. Measured
gusts have ranged in the 35 to 45 knot range for area reporting
stations, to include North Platte. This will likely persist for
another hour or so before waning.
Convection is largely out of the local area and concerns will
then transition to incoming low stratus that will introduce MVFR
CIGs. These conditions are currently affecting VTN and will
gradually work their way south to LBF by late tonight. These
lower CIGs will likely prevail through the early morning Tuesday
before conditions improve and winds decrease leaving clear to
mostly clear skies and a return to VFR conditions.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...NMJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 613 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
- A low chance (20-35%) of thunderstorms is expected this
afternoon and evening from the Stockton Plateau to the Permian
Basin. The primary threats are very large hail and damaging
winds, but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
- Windy and dry conditions will spread result in elevated fire
weather conditions for western portions of the area again
Tuesday.
- A higher (50% to 70%) chance of storms over the northern and
eastern Permian Basin Tuesday evening into Tuesday night with
the primary threats again being large hail and damaging winds.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 504 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
A narrow plume of mid-level ascent has spread from the Davis
Mountains to the Upper Trans Pecos and western Permian Basin this
afternoon. A very dry airmass in the low-levels has resulted in
inverted V type soundings, so precipitation falling from the mid-
levels is virga over these locations. RAP forecast soundings
reveal downdraft CAPE values in excess of 1000 J/KG, so light
virga showers moving overhead will be capable of producing wind
gusts of 50-70 mph along with areas of blowing dust reducing
visibility to 1/4 mile or less. We have issued a Blowing Dust
Warning from the Permian Basin to the Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn
corridor, Davis Mountains, and Marfa Plateau until 8 PM CDT.
Thunderstorms have also developed over the southeastern Permian
Basin over the past couple of hours along the dryline, some of
which have already become severe with an earlier report of
golfball sized hail on 349 southwest of Midkiff. A Tornado Watch
has been issued for the eastern Permian Basin until 11 PM CDT.
While a tornado or two is possible, the primary severe hazards
with convection this evening will probably be large hail and
damaging winds. /21
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
VIS/IR satellite imagery shows scattered to broken high clouds
streaming from southwest to northeast across the area early this
afternoon, and radar and lightning data has even indicated storms
along the dryline over Davis Mountains around noon today. The clouds
and moisture are associated with mid-level moisture streaming in on
persistent southwest flow, courtesy of a long wave troughing pattern
from the Great Basin into northern Mexico that has been present
since last week. This pattern has kept daily shower/storm chances
present, and today will be no exception. SPC has highlighted
Stockton Plateau and Permian Basin in a SLGT risk and northeast
Permian Basin in an ENH risk today, with up to a 30% risk of large
hail within 25 miles of any given point over the latter region, as
well as up to a 10% risk of damaging winds. Amidst mean CAPE 1000-
1500 J/kg from Stockton Plateau into central Permian Basin and
points east, mean tropospheric southwesterly wind shear of 35 to 40
knots, and mean PWAT 1" to 1.20" and low-level and mid-level RH
below 70% in forecast soundings, instability for storms to be rooted
in the boundary layer, shear for organization of rotating updrafts
necessary for long-lived storms capable of producing severe weather,
and dry enough conditions in the lower troposphere to minimize
melting of falling hailstones, respectively, will all be present.
The combinations of these factors along with low-level lapse rates 7-
9 C/km will lead to a primary risk of large hail and damaging winds.
However, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, considering potential
for backing of low-level winds east of the dryline, 0-1 km and 0-3
km helicity at least 80 m2/s2, and LCLs below 1000 meters. Highest
severe risk will be situated near the intersection of the quasi-
stationary cold front and dryline, which from WPC Surface Analysis
looks to be the central and northeast Permian Basin. Highs today
rise to above average despite convective cloud debris from storms
later in the day, topping out 8 to 10 degrees above average. This
translates to mid 80s to mid 90s, upper 70s to lower 80s Guadalupes
into westernmost Eddy County, and upper 90s to triple digits near
the Rio Grande in the Big Bend into Presidio Valley. Under remaining
scattered to broken cloud cover limiting radiational cooling, lows
only fall 8 to 12 degrees above average, translating to mid 50s to
mid 60s, with a medium probability of lows between 50F and 55F
across Guadalupes into northern SE NM plains, and low to medium
probability of lows only falling to 70F along the Rio Grande in the
Big Bend.
Tomorrow, a similar setup with a dryline across Lea County into the
Upper Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, and a quasi-
stationary cold front farther south over the central Permian Basin
are indicated on WPC Surface Analysis. SPC has again outlined much
of the same region as today in a SLGT risk, with an ENH risk over
the northeast Permian Basin, and MRGL risk down to Terrell County
and east and northeast of the Davis Mountains, where the dryline is
again likely to setup. Storm formation is expected to be driven by a
combination of differential heating across synoptic and mesoscale
boundaries, heating of elevated terrain, and interactions/mergers of
ongoing storms that will itself aid in southward progression of the
quasi-stationary cold front front. Large hail, damaging winds, and a
tornado or two again look to be the main risks with any strong to
severe storms that develop. PoPs higher than today and in the 50% to
70% range are indicated Tuesday evening as a LLJ strengthens south
of the convectively modulated synoptic cold front. All of these
considerations in addition to similar mean CAPE, shear, PWAT,
elongated hodographs, and helicity suggesting more widespread
coverage and organization of broad clusters and bowing segments of
storms capable of all severe hazards than this evening in more humid
air behind the front. Highs 4 to 5 degrees cooler than today across
W TX and 2 to 3 degrees cooler than today across SE NM are forecast
as the cold front develops farther south than today, and CAA,
clouds, and increased rain chances - especially over the northeast
Permian Basin, keep temperatures cooler. This translates to highs
only rising into the 80s, upper 70s higher elevations and
westernmost and northernmost SE NM plains, a medium to high
probability of highs rising into the lower 90s across the Upper
Trans Pecos, and highs rising into the mid 90s to triple digits
along the Rio Grande in the Presidio Valley into Big Bend. Lows then
again fall into the 50s and 60s for most, but 5 degrees cooler for
most locations as a result of southward progression of the cold
front.
Despite storm chances, not every place east of the dryline will see
rain, when taking into account forecast convective nature of
precipitation. NBM indicates a few tenths of an inch northwest
Permian Basin into Midland-Odessa, with 0.50" to 0.75" for the
northeast Permian Basin, 0.75" to 1.00" in central and eastern
portions of northernmost Permian Basin. Ensembles show rain total
amounts by Wednesday morning ranging from near zero everywhere
except for a few hundredths of an inch across then northeast Permian
Basin, to mean accumulations of a tenths of an inch Terrell County
into central Permian Basin and up to 0.50" over northeast Permian
Basin, to as much as 0.50" to 0.75" Terrell County into central
Permian Basin and 1.00" to 1.50" northeast Permian Basin. There is
medium probability of rainfall up to 0.25" in the Midland-Odessa
metro and points north and east, high probability of rainfall up to
0.50" across the Western Low Rolling Plains, medium to high
probability of rainfall up to 0.75" Western Low Rolling Plains, and
medium to low probability of rainfall 1.00" up to 1.50" for Western
Low Rolling Plains. Both ensembles and NBM are relatively consistent
in showing a dryline with a pronounced moisture gradient setting up
east and northeast of the Davis Mountains, as evidenced by dew point
temperatures in the teens to 20s F west of the dryline, and lower
50s to lower 60s F east of the dryline. However, NBM in comparison
to ensembles demonstrate uncertainty in expected rainfall into mid-
week. All in all, it will not be a washout everywhere, the air will
continue to feel dry where there is no chance of showers and storms,
and the biggest impact of any showers and storms will be severe
weather and daytime temperatures being kept down from convective
cloud debris limiting diurnal heating.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
An upper-level trough will swing across southeast New Mexico and
west Texas during the day Wednesday. The dryline will likely
push east through most of our forecast area on Wednesday. A few
light showers could clip the far northeastern fringes of our area,
including the western Low Rolling Plains on Wednesday morning
along the base of the trough axis but the majority of our region
is expected to remain mostly sunny and dry on Wednesday with highs
in the upper 70s to mid 80s over most areas, except in the mid
80s to the lower 90s across the Trans Pecos and along the Rio
Grande. Dry weather conditions are expected to persist on Thursday
as weak shortwave ridging aloft builds over the region. High
temperatures should trend a little warmer in the mid 80s to lower
90s over most of the forecast area, except for readings in the mid
90s to around 100 degrees along the Rio Grande.
Another potent upper-level trough clipping across the
northern/central Plains and the Upper Midwest will send a cold
front southward through southeast New Mexico and much of west
Texas on Friday. Deep layer moisture may increase along the
vicinity of the boundary in association with a series of shortwave
impulses translating across our CWA Friday afternoon through
Saturday afternoon. We will keep a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast during this time frame. The overall
potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall remains uncertain
as moisture quality and available instability remain in question
this far out. We will monitor trends over the next few days. Highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s (except mid 90s to around 100
degrees along the Rio Grande) on Thursday should trend cooler in
the 70s and 80s over most places behind the front Friday and
Saturday, although temperatures will still remain quite warm along
the Rio Grande. Drier conditions are anticipated on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
A small band of virga translating from the Davis Mountains to the
Permian Basin may result in localized strong and gusty winds in
excess of 40 kt and areas of blowing dust reducing visibility to
IFR thresholds or lower at times through early this evening.
Isolated TSRA may develop over the far eastern Basin through early
this evening. VFR otherwise prevails through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 92 64 86 59 / 20 40 30 80
Carlsbad 90 57 87 53 / 0 0 0 20
Dryden 93 65 88 63 / 20 30 20 40
Fort Stockton 95 65 91 60 / 20 30 20 40
Guadalupe Pass 81 57 79 52 / 0 0 0 10
Hobbs 88 57 86 51 / 0 10 10 60
Marfa 87 56 86 51 / 10 10 10 20
Midland Intl Airport 92 65 86 59 / 10 30 20 70
Odessa 91 65 86 59 / 10 30 20 70
Wink 94 62 92 58 / 10 10 10 50
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Blowing Dust Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Chinati
Mountains-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
Eastern Culberson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa
Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
Plains-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
753 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler high pressure remains over the area tonight. The high
then shifts offshore tomorrow and will remain anchored of the SE
coast through at least Friday. A cold front will move through
the region sometime this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 745 PM Mon...Only minor changes to the forecast, mainly
to capture T and Td trends. NC DAQ has issued a Orange Air
Quality Action Day for Jones county through Midnight Tuesday
night due to smoke produced from the Black Swamp Fire. Have
issued the Air Quality Alert and added HRRR Smoke to the grids.
Previous discussion...High pressure will gradually shift
offshore tonight, with another quiet and clear night expected.
Excellent radiational cooling conditions will develop, and allow
for readings to drop into the upper 40s to low 50s inland
overnight, while temps remain in the upper 50s to around 60
along the coast. Forecast soundings again look too dry for fog
but with such strong radiational cooling could see some patchy
ground fog develop late.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Mon...Tuesday the surface ridge will begin a week
long residency centered off the Southeast Coast while extending
into the Carolinas. Thus we will see a continuation of the
rather benign period of weather. Developing SW flow and
associated warm advection will result in highs getting into the
low 80s inland and mid 70s along the OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 AM Monday...
KEY MESSAGES:
-Warm and humid Wednesday through the end of the week
-Next potential cold front impacts the area this weekend
bringing unsettled weather to ENC
Tuesday night through Thursday...Amplified upper level pattern
will be in place into the end of the week with general troughing
across the western CONUS and ridging over the Southeast and
Mid- Atlantic through Thursday. A weak upper trough will pass
well to the north of the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Within the
troughing to the west, a northern stream positively tilted
trough will dive SE`wards across the Pacific NW and reach the
the northern Plains by Thursday and this trough will eventually
be our next potential weather maker for ENC this weekend. At the
surface, ridging will be centered off the Southeast Coast and
remain centered off the coast into the end of the week. As a
result, a rather benign period of weather is expected with
SW`rly flow prevailing allowing for a WAA regime to persist
across Carolinas.
Wed, a weak shortwave will pass by to the north with associated
surface cold front stalling in Virginia. The stalled front to
the north will bring a low end chance for some showers and
storms mainly north of Hwy 264 on Wed afternoon and evening,
though little in the way of QPF is expected even if it did rain
across this area given lack of forcing. This stalled front will
then lift north as a warm front on Thursday as a developing low
in the Southern Plains pushes NE`wards towards the Midwest
keeping things dry and warm. With persistent SW`rly WAA regime
and increasing low level thicknesses, expect highs to get into
the mid 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX while lows get
down into the low to mid 60s each night.
Friday through the weekend...Upper ridging finally pushes
offshore by the end of the week with the aforementioned upper
trough in the northern Plains pushing E`wards as well this
weekend while deepening. There are some minor differences in
strength and exact track of this trough as it moves across the
Eastern Seaboard with the GFS/ECMWF being the most progressive
and the Canadian guidance being the slowest but general trend is
for this trough to approach the area by Fri and push offshore
by early next week at the latest. At the surface, deepening low
pressure in the Midwest continues to track north and east
towards Canada while its associated cold front quickly sweeps
E`wards across the Ohio River Valley and eventually off the East
Coast this weekend. There remain some minor differences in
frontal timing but most guidance pushes the front off the coast
on Sat. The one challenge for this weekend will be if we see
any thunderstorm activity associated with this frontal passage
and a prefrontal trough out ahead of the main front. GFS is the
wettest guidance overall bringing a chance for showers and
thunderstorms both Fri afternoon into Sat while the ECMWF and
Canadian guidance holds precip off until the frontal passage on
Sat. Either way most guidance does suggest we see thunderstorms
during this time period with ensemble guidance showing at least
a 50-70% chance of MLCAPE values above 500 J/kg both Fri
afternoon and on Sat across ENC. With increasing wind shear
expected as the upper trough approaches there is at least a low
end concern for stronger storms either Fri or Sat. CIPS
guidance as well as some ML/AI guidance does continue to hint at
a non zero threat for severe weather Fri or Sat. Will have to
continue to monitor the forecast trends to see if the threat
increases or decreases with the approach of the aforementioned
front. Otherwise above avg temps continue ahead of the front on
Fri before temps trend closer to avg over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Afternoon/...
As of 745 PM Mon...VFR conditions are expected to continue
through Tuesday with cool and dry high pressure over the
region. Aside from some areas of high clouds it will be clear
with light winds around 10 kts or less. Could see patches of
ground fog develop early Tue due to the strong radiational
cooling but should not be impactful to aviation operations. Will
have to watch smoke production from the Black Swamp Fire in the
Croatan NF. With winds becoming southerly on Tuesday, smoke
transport may impact EWN, potentially bringing reduced vsbys.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Monday...High pressure ridging will push offshore
and remain centered off the Southeast Coast through Thursday
bringing primarily VFR conditions across all of ENC into the end
of the week. There is a low end chance at seeing some sub-VFR
conditions on Friday with the approach of a cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 145 PM Mon...Excellent boating conditions will continue
through Tue with light winds and manageable seas thanks to high
pressure over the region. Winds today will continue E/SE 5-15 kt
as a sea breeze develops and moves inland through this evening.
Winds continue to veer overnight, and will become generally
SE/S at 5-10 kts. SE winds will persist at 5-10 kts Tue morning
as high pressure pushes offshore with winds gradually veering to
a to a S to SW direction in the afternoon while increasing to
10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kt late. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft
through the period.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Monday...No significant changes to the forecast as
high pressure will remain in control for the most part through
the period. This will bring a general lull in impactful marine
conditions into the end of the week. Overnight Tue and into
Wed, a cold front will approach the area and stall to the north
which will allow for SW`rly winds to increase closer to 10-20
kts while seas remain around 2-4 ft. Front should stall to the
north of the Carolinas limiting any shower or thunderstorm
chances. As we get into Thurs, front lifts north as a warm front
allowing the gradient to relax and for SW`rly winds to ease
down to 10-15 kts and 2-4 ft seas. We do finally see our streak
of benign boating conditions come to an end as a stronger cold
front approaches from the west on Fri increasing winds closer to
15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts and 3-5 ft seas resulting in
the potential for SCA conditions at the end of the workweek.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 7 AM Mon...
**Increased Fire Danger Possible This Afternoon Due to low
Relative Humidity**
A dry airmass will hold on today, while temps climb into the
70s this afternoon. This will lead to RH values dropping to
20%-25% this afternoon. Additionally, extremely dry recent
conditions have kept fuels dry despite the recent green up. The
main limiting factor today will be winds, which will generally
be below 15 mph, but will be changing direction abruptly this
afternoon due to an inland advancing seabreeze.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Tuesday night for NCZ092.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/SK
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...JME/RCF/SK
MARINE...JME/RCF
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
857 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 855 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
- A few showers and storms possible along the coast and over the
northern half of the area tonight.
- A High risk for dangerous rip currents remains at area beaches.
- Sensitive fire weather conditions continue this week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Showers and lightning storms over interior portions of the area
(mainly west of Orlando) are beginning to diminish this evening.
The heaviest rain totals from earlier (according to MRMS) reached
2-2.5 inches in a couple of spots in Lake and western Orange
counties. Now, additional showers and storms are developing over
the Atlantic, and some of this activity is shown in hi-res
guidance to track southwestward toward our coast tonight. As a
result, this forecast update includes refinements to rain chances
overnight, with a focus for the highest chances along the
immediate coast. Lightning storms will remain possible, along with
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. The remainder of the
forecast is in good shape.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Rest of Today-Tonight...Increased moisture associated with a
decaying frontal boundary extending offshore of the First Coast
will sag into central Florida as high pressure over the eastern US
pushes offshore the Mid-Atlantic seaboard behind the boundary.
Satellite imagery as well as radar imagery from KJAX and KMLB show
hints of a weak surface trough forming along the boundary out
beyond the JAX and MLB coastal waters. Subsidence and drier air on
the western side of this feature appears to be producing an
environment unfavorable (but not impossible) for convection over
the Atlantic waters and to the coast, so based on current trends
and the latest HRRR and RAP guidance, have pulled back rain and
storm chances for this evening a bit. That said, across the
northern counties and farther inland away from this feature, RAP
analysis shows the environment remains favorable for a continued
low (20-30 %) chance of showers and lightning storms, capable of
occasional cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds to 40 mph, and
locally heavy rainfall (especially if a storm gets stuck on a
boundary), where boundary interactions can get things going. In
addition, there is another opportunity for a little rain tonight
from a low (20-30%) chance of showers and lightning storms moving
onshore from late tonight into the morning.
As for the rest of the forecast, weak onshore flow and the sea
breeze keeps the coast`s temperatures near normal during the day,
while very warm conditions continue inland, with above normal
overnight temperatures for all.
Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The
aforementioned area of high pressure at the surface will gradually
drift southward through the remainder of the work week, with the
ridge axis also shifting towards the Florida peninsula. While some
lingering activity Tuesday morning from remnant overnight storms,
and in the afternoon afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland
cannot be ruled out, mostly dry conditions are anticipated to
prevail across east central Florida each day. Onshore winds
Tuesday and Wednesday will be further enhanced during the
afternoons by the east coast sea breeze, with wind speeds reaching
10 to 15 mph. As the ridge axis shifts southward, winds veer to
out of the southeast on Thursday and out of the south on Friday.
Winds along the coast back to out of the east-southeast as the sea
breeze moves inland each afternoon. Skies are anticipated to
remain mostly clear until Friday, when increasing moisture locally
will support greater cloud coverage across the area. Slightly
cooler into Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s, but this is
short- lived as conditions warm mid to late week back into the mid
80s to low 90s. Lows generally remain in the low to mid 60s,
though some upper 50s cannot be ruled out Tuesday and Wednesday
nights in the more rural portions of east central Florida.
Saturday-Sunday...(Previous Discussion) The next best chance for
rain looks to be this weekend. Guidance indicates that a mid-level
trough will sweep southeastward from the Great Lakes towards the
Mid-Atlantic, swinging northeastward towards New England. At the
surface, this will translate to a cold front sweeping across the
southeastern U.S., weakening as it moves towards the Florida
peninsula. As it approaches east central Florida, moisture will
increase, with rain chances also increasing as a result. Between
the weakening front and the development of the east coast sea
breeze each afternoon, shower activity will have some sort of
mechanism present helping to kick it off in the afternoons.
Isolated storms cannot be ruled out, though confidence at this
time remains low. There does remain some deal of discrepancy
between guidance at this time, with the GFS being the wetter
solution at this time. Stuck with the NBM, which keeps PoPs at 20
to 30 percent each day. While activity is anticipated to gradually
diminish into the overnight hours across the peninsula, some
lingering showers and storms will be possible across the local
Atlantic waters. Outside of rain chances, temperatures are
forecast to remain in the mid 80s to low 90s with overnight lows
in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 855 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
An area of high pressure moves southeastward off the coast of the
Carolinas, pushing a weakening cold front southwestward into the
local Atlantic waters tonight. A 20 pct chance of lightning
storms capable of gusty winds to 35 kts and occasional cloud to
water lightning continues. Persistent onshore flow increases to 15
to 20 knots overnight across the offshore waters, continuing
through Tuesday and Tuesday night. Seas respond by building up to
6 feet in the Gulf Stream, and 4 to 5 feet elsewhere. Small craft
will need to exercise caution across the offshore waters tonight
through Tuesday as a result of these deteriorating boating
conditions.
High pressure shifts farther south Wednesday through Friday, with
a return of generally favorable boating conditions anticipated
across the local waters. Onshore winds 10 to 15 knots gradually
veer to out of the south-southeast at 10 to 15 knots by the end of
the week. Seas subside back to 3 to 5 feet through the remainder
of the period. Dry conditions return, with no mentionable rain
chances forecast until the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Evening convection west of KMCO should continue to focus westward
and diminish into mid evening. ENE/E winds diminishing this
evening and overnight, increasing again on Tue 10-17 kts into the
afternoon with higher gusts (20-25 kts). Will monitor if ISOLD
convection is able to develop along the east coast overnight and
possibly further inland Tue morning across interior TAF sites,
though confidence is low. Models also hint at some MVFR CIGs
later tonight into early Tue morning and will amend as necessary.
VFR otherwise.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
A weakening front is forecast to sag into Central Florida this
evening, resulting in increasing moisture, rain, and storm
chances. While the greater moisture will keep minimum RH values
above critical thresholds and onshore flow is anticipated to
remain between 10 to 15 mph, sensitive fire weather conditions are
still anticipated due to the chance for storms. Any lightning
strikes could spark new wildfires, with the greatest chance for
storms focused from the Orlando metro towards the Cape and areas
northward this evening, which do encompass some of our driest
areas across east central Florida, and along the coast tonight.
Lingering moisture into Tuesday will quickly dry out mid to late
week, with minimum RH values forecast to fall once again to 35 to
45 percent across the interior from Wednesday through Friday.
Onshore flow Tuesday and Wednesday veers to out of the southeast
on Thursday and out of the south on Friday, though backing along
the coast is anticipated as a result of the development of the
east coast sea breeze each afternoon. No rain chances forecast
from Wednesday through Friday, allowing for continued drying of
fuels and sensitive fire weather conditions. Next best chance for
rain is forecast for this weekend, though discrepancies between
models on timing and extent of rainfall still need to be worked
out.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 80 63 81 / 30 20 0 0
MCO 69 84 63 85 / 10 20 0 0
MLB 71 81 67 81 / 30 20 0 0
VRB 70 81 66 81 / 30 20 0 0
LEE 68 85 63 87 / 30 20 0 0
SFB 68 84 62 85 / 10 20 0 0
ORL 69 84 64 85 / 10 20 0 0
FPR 69 81 65 81 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Sedlock
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
711 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain and snowmelt will continue to lead to rises on area
rivers and possible minor flooding on typically flood-prone
rivers, especially into mid week as a strong low pressure
brings additional rainfall to the area today and this evening.
- An active and warmer pattern is expected into tonight. Some
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with severe hail
and wind gusts being the main threats.
- Southerly gales to 45 knots are expected between Marquette and
Grand Marais this afternoon into this evening. North to
northwest gales of 40 knots are expected Tuesday over at
least north central and eastern Lake Superior.
- RHs into the 20 percents are possible Wednesday as a dry high
pressure moves through the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
The warm front of the approaching low pressure from the Northern
Plains is currently bringing showers and thunderstorms to the
Keweenaw, central, and eastern U.P. as of the time of this writing.
While some gusty winds up to 30 mph and small pea sized hail have
been seen in a few of the thunderstorms thus far, expect garden-
variety showers and storms to progressively continue north and
northeastward with time during the early to mid afternoon hours.
Behind the warm front, expect fairly dry conditions for the next few
hours as the low continues to approach far western Lake Superior.
Concerns arise as to whether we will see breaks in the cloud cover
this afternoon or not; if we do, we could be in for some strong to
severe storms that could bring severe winds and hail to the region
as a LLJ associated with the low increases bulk shear to 40 to 65
knots late this afternoon (convection is looking to start over the
western U.P. around 6PM EDT as of the time of this writing). In
addition, an isolated tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out
either, especially along the WI border where SB instability is more
likely; that being said, think the chances for a tornado this
afternoon and evening are very low (less than 5%), especially away
from the WI border area. The most recent runs of the HRRR and even
other CAMs are beginning to suggest the convection being more
discrete in nature late this afternoon through this evening ahead of
and along the cold front as it moves in this evening. As instability
increases along the front, expect the best chance for severe weather
to occur along or right ahead of the front this evening through the
overnight hours. As the convection continues eastwards into the east
half, expect it to become elevated in nature, which should take out
the little tornado threat that we did have. Currently, it looks like
the severe weather threat will be over for our area by around to
just after midnight tonight as the cold front pushes through the
last bits of our area. Behind the cold front, expect some drier air
to move in across the area. However, wrap around moisture around the
low (which at this point is moving from Lake Superior into Canada)
will begin to bring rain showers possibly mixed with snow over the
western U.P. early Tuesday morning.
While there may be a small (5% or less) flash flooding concern for
the western area late this afternoon through this evening, chances
have decreased for it to occur as less continuous and strong
convection is now expected (less training of storms). Therefore,
while the chance for flash flooding is above 0%, confidence in this
occurring is too small to message as a Key Message now.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
The mid level trough is expected to be over N Ontario, extending S
into the UP and N WI by Tue morning. At the sfc, the low pressure at
~997mb will have made it to NE Ontario with it`s associated cold
front draped SE over E Lake Superior and the Central UP. The trough
continues E, lifting the sfc low NE over Quebec the remainder of the
day with high pressure building over the Great Lakes. The cold front
is progged to continue pressing SE across the remainder of the CWA
through the morning hours. This overrides the dry slot over the S-
Central and E early and continues some -shrasn into the afternoon
hours as cold air filters in from the NW. Some thunder is possible
with some lingering instability, however strong to severe weather
is not expected. Any sn accumulations (more likely over the NW)
would be light, with temps above freezing and sfc temps also being a
limiting factor. As the high pressure builds in, dry weather returns
from W to E gradually through the day with clear skies returning by
Tue night. Otherwise, expect some gusty NW winds early in the day,
especially E where gusts up to 25-35mph are anticipated. Temps will
lower in the wake of the cold front only to warm slightly near WI and
in the W in the late afternoon. Min temps Tue night are expected in
the 20s with some low 30s near the Great Lakes.
High pressure then shifts gradually over the Great Lakes through Wed
with mid level ridging increasing overhead supporting dry and
pleasant weather. Ensemble guidance shows PWATs below the 10th
percentile of modeled climatology Tue night into Wed night, we could
see min RHs drop down near 25% by the afternoon in the W where
downslope flow supports warming. Better mixing in the east will
fight with onshore flow off Lake MI, but RH falling near 30% in the
interior E is likely. This does flirt with elevated fire weather
concerns in the W, will continue to monitor this period.
Additional -shra return late on Thu as a weak shortwave from Canada
phases with a stronger low lifting through southern Lower MI into
northern Quebec. We could see some sn mix down to the sfc in the
wrap-around moisture/phasing inverted trough Thu night into Fri
over the N, but uncertainty on that remains high at this time.
Guidance begins to diverge into next weekend as this system makes an
exit. A rex block sets up with deep low pressure somewhere over
Quebec and over the Rockies or Four Corners, with amplifying ridging
in between across the central CONUS. Should the rex block be S
enough, we could see some shortwaves bring additional -shra over us
this weekend; if not, then expect dry weather with the UP safely
under the ridge. Otherwise, expect a warming trend with temps well
above normal into next week with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Lows
Sat morning in the upper 20s to low 30s gradually rise to mid 40s to
low 50s for Tue morning.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Center of surface low pressure will lift northeastward from NW
Wisconsin to the central basin of Lake Superior between 00-06Z this
evening. Large scale warm advection exists ahead of this system to
support thunderstorms with heavy rain potential (IFR vsby and cigs)
primarily between 00-04Z this evening. Southwesterly low level jet
already in place is leading to low level wind shear at upwards of up
to 55 to 60 knots at 2.0 kft agl per MQT VAD. The low level wind
shear will remain likely until the cold front passage.
Shallow cold front is expected to push across the western U.P.
between 06-09Z with NNW winds of 20 to 35 knots possible. Low level
cold advection will lead to saturation with MVFR
stratus/stratocumulus and eventual rain/snow mix 11-17Z Tuesday.
Aggressive drying is forecasted beyond 17Z although shallow MVFR
stratus may persist into the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
A low pressure system currently over western Minnesota lifts
northeast toward the lake through this evening. Southeast to south
winds this afternoon continue into this evening around 15-25 kts
over the west and between 20-30 kts over the east with some gale
force gusts to 35 kts ahead of the system. A Gale Warning has been
hoisted for 266 as well as continued the nearshores Gale Warning
between Marquette and Grand Marais to accommodate the gust potential
(50-70% chance) this afternoon and evening. As the low pressure
lifts northeast over the region through tonight, winds become north
to northwest behind the associated cold front with gales of 35-40
kts expected over the north central and eastern portions of the lake
for Tuesday. Expect waves between 4-9 ft into this evening, highest
over the northeastern waters. Strong northerly winds behind the cold
front build waves up to 6-14ft, highest over the southeastern waters
Tuesday afternoon.
With high pressure building in quickly behind the low, expect winds
diminish back below 20 kts from west to east on Tuesday. This also
settles waves below 4ft in the west in the afternoon and around
midnight in the east. The light winds around 20 kts or less
are expected to continue into this upcoming weekend.
Expect thunderstorms to continue into tonight. A few of these storms
could bring severe hail and winds to the sfc, with the SPC showing a
Slight Risk (15% chance or more) of severe weather over most of the
lake.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning from 8 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ243>245-248-
265.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ249-250.
Gale Warning from 9 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ249>251-267.
Gale Warning from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ263-264.
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ266.
Gale Warning from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ266.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...DTX
MARINE...Jablonski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE
646 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe weather remains possible along a dry line, ahead of a
strong cold front, and primarily southeast of the Omaha metro
area through 8 PM where an enhanced risk exists. If storms
develop, they would be capable of very large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes.
- Red Flag Warning is in effect from Lincoln and points to the
west and southwest through 8 PM, behind the dry line, where
precipitation is unlikely to occur.
- There`s an additional risk for severe storms early this
evening mainly through 8 PM across northeast NE along the
cold front, with hail up to one inch and winds up to 60 mph
possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Severe Weather Threat...
At 3 PM the dry line was located from around Decatur...to
Fremont...to Lincoln...to Beatrice and was sliding east.
Dewpoints just ahead of this dry line were still in the 60s to
even around 70 across portions of western Iowa. Dewpoints
quickly fall behind the dry line and were already down to around
40 degrees in York and points west into central Nebraska.
Dry Line (Southeastern CWA Severe Threat)...
Towering CU at 3 PM indicate that thunderstorms could begin to
fire along this dry line at any point over the next few hours.
Forecast models differ widely on how extensive convection will
be along the dry line and how quickly it will form. The 18Z NAM
NEST is one of the most aggressive models with afternoon
convection along the dry line and probably too aggressive, but
even the NAM NEST holds off on the most significant convection
until the dry line is located over the Richardson/Nemaha County
area northeast into Shenandoah and Red Oak IA. The 19Z HRRR is
less aggressive with dry line convection and holds off until
after 6 PM mainly in that same area from Richardson County
northeast towards Red Oak. Thunderstorms are far from certain
and in fact our POPs for most of eastern Nebraska are generally
around or less than 20 percent ahead of the dry line until you
get down into the Nemaha/Richardson County area up to Red Oak
where we see POPs climb to closer to 50 percent.
Although it may be difficult to get storms to form, once they
form and get established they could quickly become severe with
high end severe weather possible, especially large hail
(baseball size), damaging winds (60-75 mph), and even tornadoes.
We are expecting MLCAPE values to around 3000 J/KG with 0-6KM
deep layer shear values over 55 kts, which is all very favorable
for high end severe weather. However, the hodographs are not
perfectly curved and have a bit of a kink in them, which is less
than ideal for tornadoes along with the somewhat veering
surface winds (south southwest surface winds). That could limit
the overall tornado threat, but not completely negate it as we
are still expecting 0-1 km low level shear values around or
better than 20 kts and effective low level helicity values of
around 200 m2/s2. Again the greatest threat for higher end
severe weather is across our southeastern most counties.
Cold Front and Severe Threat Northeast Nebraska...
The forcing is pretty strong along the cold front across
northeastern Nebraska and most forecast models generate
at least scattered thunderstorms across our far northeastern
zones through 8 or 9 PM. The environment is still supportive
for severe storms in this area, but not as impressive as ahead
of the dry line. MLCAPE values along the cold front in our
northeast are around 1000 J/KG. At this point it seems like we
would be looking at the lower end severe potential with these
northeastern CWA storms of quarters and 60 mph winds.
Tuesday and Wednesday...
It will be much cooler behind the cold front with highs mainly
in the 60s, but with the winds getting lighter through the day.
Warm air advection aloft Tuesday night will bring a return to
shower and thunderstorm chances especially after midnight with
those precipitation chances lingering into Wednesday. Best
chances for appreciable rainfall of greater than 0.25 inches
will be across southern and southeastern zones. Wednesday will
remain cooler with the clouds and possible rain, once again
highs in the 60s.
Thursday through Sunday...
Temperatures warm back up into the 70s with rain chances mainly
lingering in our southeast on Thursday and then again ahead of
the next storm system perhaps as early as Sunday. But we do
expect several dry days in there with upper level ridging
Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
The primary concern is for the KOFK Terminal as scattered
showers and thunderstorms are ongoing as of this issuance. Lower
MVFR ceilings for a period of time before rising to VFR. AT KLNK
and KOMA both terminals are expected to remain dry, but breezy
southwesterly winds will become north to northwesterly and be
breezy behind the cold front. This will occur in the next few
hours. Breezy winds will persist overnight before dropping by
daybreak. Skies will be clear and winds at all terminals will
become light by afternoon hours as surface high pressure slides
through.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ050-065-
066-078-088.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Billings Wright
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
708 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms
late tonight through Tuesday evening. Primary hazards are
damaging wind gusts and large hail, though a tornado cannot be
ruled out.
- Flood Watch in effect from 7 AM Tuesday through 7 AM Thursday
with a Slight (2 of 4) to Moderate (3 of 4) Risk for excessive
rainfall. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will
result in widespread expected amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with
localized amounts up to 4 to 7 inches.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue during the day
Thursday. Therefore, any lingering flood impacts may continue
for areas receiving more heavy rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Mid-level water vapor imagery shows a deep and elongated
positively-tilted trough extending from SW California up through
northern ND. An upper-level jet on the east side of the axis
stretches from NM to MN. Jet dynamics is then forcing a deep 996
mb low-pressure system over MN with a dryline stretched south
across the Plains and a cold front stretched west into the
northern Rockies. Winds have increased with the deepening low
pressure system. 15-25 mph southerly winds with gusts up to
25-35 (and infrequent gusts up to 40 mph) have been observed.
These will continue until sunset today.
Additionally, an associated warm front has lifted through the
area bringing high temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the
lower to middle 60s. Muggy and unstable!
Slight Risk for severe storms late tonight through Tuesday:
Our 12Z balloon sounding noted over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE above a
very stout capping inversion of -350 to -500 J/kg CIN. With a
convective temperature of 91 F (we shouldn`t get anywhere near
there today), and a forecast SBCIN of -95, capping should keep
any storms from developing this afternoon and evening. Some
elevated echoes have been noted on radar as synoptic ascent
overlaps the moisture. Some of these light showers could make it
into our area this afternoon/evening, but are not expected to be
surface-based. That being said, if a storm were to somehow break
through the cap, the environment will be supportive of
supercells with all hazards. This would mainly be along and west
of I-49 if it occurred, but this is a very low confidence
scenario (5-10%).
The better chance for strong to severe thunderstorms exists as
the cold front moves in from the NW after 3 AM tonight. Our
environment will be characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE
within 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear which is supportive for
severe thunderstorms. Therefore, some strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible along the front in our
northwestern counties early Tuesday morning. Given much of the
instability expected to be elevated hail up to quarters will be
the main hazard with these. Then, given the stronger forcing
along the cold front, with mainly boundary-parallel shear, wind
gusts up to 60 mph will also be possible if a more linear mode
develops. Tornado risk should be very low as long as instability
remains elevated, though we cannot rule out one or two if a
surface-based storm evolves along the front.
The above scenario is if storms form along the front. An
additional scenario is a complex of storms that moves in from OK
during the same timeframe. In this scenario, potential hazards
and timing are the same, but the location may be closer to I-44.
The cold front is then expected to stall somewhere along the
I-44 corridor during the day Tuesday as the upper-level jet`s
progression slows and height falls cease. This will keep the
moist and unstable airmass along and south of I-44, bringing a
Slight (2 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms in this area. This
threat will mainly be conditional for the position of the cold
front, especially as instability quickly decreases behind the
front according to RAP forecasts. The cooler HREF members have
the front cleared through the southern border. The warmer HREF
members have the front over I-44. No matter the scenario,
effective shear of 35-50 kts overtop HREF mean MUCAPE upwards of
1000 J/kg will be enough for supercells. These can still
develop behind the front and be elevated. Therefore, large hail
up to golf balls will be the main hazards. However, if the
front hangs out further north, surface-based storms could
produce wind gusts up to 60 mph and a low-end tornado threat
given around 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and modest low-level shear
south of the front (15-25 kts via RAP forecast hodographs).
These storms would have the best chance of occurring during the
afternoon and evening hours. That being said, the environment
will be conducive for for any develop storm from 3 AM Tuesday
all the way through Wednesday night.
Flood Watch in effect beginning 7 AM Tuesday:
In addition to severe weather, excessive rainfall and flooding
will also be a concern as the front stalls over the area, mean
layer flow becomes static parallel to the front, and 90th
percentile PWATs of 1.25-1.5 inches remain in the area. HREF and
experimental REFS/MPAS high resolution ensembles are in pretty
good agreement with the first round of widespread rainfall
occurring along the the I-44 corridor during the day Tuesday.
With 90th percentile PWATs for this time of year, according to
NAEFS, thunderstorms should be quite productive. HREF suggests
widespread rain rates of 0.25-0.5 in/hr rates under heavier
rain, with any thunderstorm capable of producing 0.75-1 in/hr
rain rates. Being so saturated from recent rain events, even
these could produce some flooding. By the end of the day
Tuesday, we could see widespread amounts of 0.5-1.25 inches,
with HREF and REFS LPMMs hinting at localized swaths up to 2-3
inches.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Slight to Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday:
The surface front will go through some spatial wiggles through
Wednesday as another shortwave trough slowly approaches from the
west. This brings a little uncertainty in the exact area of
heaviest rainfall. In fact, it may shift a bit from north to
south and back to north through the period, effectively
smoothing out the heavier rain across much of the area.
Nevertheless, the warm front is expected to slowly lift north
through the area late Tuesday night and through Wednesday.
During this period, HREF/REFS/MPAS CAM ensembles are all in
agreement with a lull in showers and storms early Wednesday
morning before another round enters from the SW as height falls
begin again ahead of the next trough ejection. This will bring
more heavy rainfall and the potential for some isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms as the moist and unstable environment
remains in place (our whole area is in a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk
for severe thunderstorms). Hail up to quarters and wind gusts up
to 60 mph look to be the main hazards.
Flooding Wednesday into Thursday will become the main concern as
continued heavy rain is expected. Again, with the small
deviations in frontal position, when all is said and done, NBM
25th-75th percentile suggests all areas should expect at least a
half inch of rain (10th percentile), with many areas seeing
1.5-4 inches of rain (25th-75th) percentile. As of right now,
the heaviest axis of rain looks to be in the SW corner of MO
along the I-44 corridor where a Moderate (3 of 4) Risk for
excessive rainfall exists. HREF and experimental REFS LPMMs
suggest that localized areas could see up to 4-7 inches if under
multiple thunderstorms. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been
issued for all of our area through Thursday morning.
Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Thursday:
The system will finally become progressive Thursday with a cold
front moving through. This will bring additional chances of
showers and thunderstorms (60-80% chance), though the synoptic
setup and early signals from MPAS members suggest these will be
more scattered in nature. Therefore, the widespread flooding
risk should diminish through the day Thursday, though any
lingering flooding could be exacerbated if those areas see some
of these scattered storms since 1.00-1.25 in PWATs will still
be in place according to the GEFS.
Warming trend over the weekend with low rain chances:
After 80s today, highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s will be
persistent through the week. After the system clears the area,
NBM deterministic brings a warming trend as global ensembles are
showing large-scale ridging moving into the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will move through at times
during the TAF period. Confidence in timing and location of
these clusters is limited, but tried to get the best
probabilities represented in the TAFS. For the most part, expect
VFR conditions to persist, with temporarily lowered conditions
when rain moves through.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday morning for
KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday morning for
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Titus