Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/27/25
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
557 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025
- Isolated severe storms will develop in eastern New Mexico this
afternoon. A few storms will produce hail and/or damaging wind
gusts. There is a low chance of tornadoes and flash flooding.
- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of fire
spread along and southwest of the middle and lower Rio Grande
Valley today, with stronger southwest winds on Sunday creating
a more widespread risk of fire spread.
- Strong southwest winds may down tree limbs and cause damage to
utility poles in central and eastern New Mexico Sunday
afternoon. Blowing dust and hazardous crosswinds may impact
travel.
- Chances for showers and storms will increase going into the
middle of next week across eastern and portions of northern NM.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Strong to severe storms may develop east of the central mountain
chain today, with large hail and damaging winds as the main threat,
with a low chance of a tornado. A minor flash flooding risk exists
in areas that received substantial rain last night. Strong winds and
low humidity values will create widespread critical to extremely
critical fire weather conditions on Sunday. Blowing dust, especially
in areas that have received little to no precipitation, may cause
visibility to drop below a half mile. Scattered showers and high
elevation snow favor northern and eastern areas Tuesday onward.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 109 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025
A potent upper level low over central CA will wobble east over NV/UT
through Sunday night, with strong southwest flow aloft spreading
over the Desert SW and NM. Right now, what remains of the backdoor
cold front is modifying and mixing with richer Gulf moisture,
advecting northwest from far west TX. Surface dewpoint temperatures
in the 50s to low 60s characterize this airmass, with low level
moisture sufficiently deep to fuel another round of convection later
this afternoon/evening east of the central mountain chain.
Instability and shear across the east central and southeast plains
are favorable for another round of severe storms and the SPC has
upgraded the day one convective outlook to show a slight risk. In
addition to large hail, we can not rule out isolated tornadoes given
the strong veering wind profiles just off of the surface and healthy
east-southeast inflow. Issued a Flash Flood Watch earlier for this
afternoon/evening for De Baca, Curry and Quay Counties, where heavy
rains of up to 7" fell over the past 24hrs. Very little additional
rainfall is needed to cause additional flash flooding and that area
is exactly where the latest HRRR and HREF develop storms in a couple
of hours. Dry air aloft will put the kibosh on convection by
midnight, then mix to the surface Sunday with strong southwest winds
developing by noon. Added the middle RGV to the High Wind Warning
and issued a Wind Advisory for some of the surrounding zones for
Sunday. Patches of blowing dust will likely develop Sunday
afternoon, but recent precipitation makes defining the exact areas
even more difficult. The RGV, Upper Tularosa Valley and areas near
Roswell make the most sense for blowing dust Sunday afternoon. The
upper level low will move east into the southern Rockies late Sunday
night, turning our winds to the west and bringing a weak Pacific
cold front through.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 109 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Windy conditions remain across northeast NM Monday as upper and mid
level winds remain strong and a lee surface low forms in southeast
CO/northeast NM. Combined with very dry, well mixed surface layers,
wind gusts between 35-45mph are possible. Isolated windy conditions
also appear likely across the Sacramento Mountains, with ~40kt 700mb
flow latching onto the mountain range. A backdoor front pushes into
northeast NM late Monday night and works up against the central
mountain chain by Tuesday morning, perhaps creating a brief period
of gusty gap winds, though confidence is not high on this. Moisture
behind the front interacting with synoptic forcing may work to
induce showers and thunderstorms across the northeast and eastern
parts of NM Tuesday afternoon and evening. Drier air begins to work
its way into NM Wednesday as an upper level trough approaches,
however dryline-induced thunderstorms will again be possible across
the eastern plains Wednesday afternoon/evening. Additional embedded
shortwaves and vorticity lobes in the upper level flow attempt to
materialize showers and thunderstorms across the northern mountains,
northeast and eastern NM Thursday. A backdoor front pushes into
eastern NM late Thursday into Friday, which is likely to return
moisture to the region and more dryline-induced thunderstorms Friday
and into the weekend. On a temperature front, high temperatures are
likely to wobble between 5F below and 5F above average throughout
much of the week for much of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Strong-to-severe thunderstorms will continue to move eastward
across the east central and southeast plains until mid-to-late
evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible
from stronger cells. Widespread low clouds and areas of fog will
return to the area east of the central mountain chain tonight, but
will diminish early Sunday morning as strong southwest flow aloft
moves over the area. Southwest wind gusts in the 35-45 KT range
will be common Sunday from late morning until sunset, except for
gusts up to 50 KT from the middle Rio Grande Valley eastward to
the east slopes of the central mountain chain.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY MAINLY WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM THEN POSSIBLY EASTERN NM MONDAY...
Critical fire weather conditions will continue across central and
western portions of the area through early this evening, then
redevelop and become more widespread across all of western and
central NM on Sunday as winds aloft trend up and a lee side trough
deepens. Fire growth from lightning starts along the east slopes of
the Sangre De Cristos is possible Sunday. Near-critical to critical
fire weather conditions will redevelop Monday, but be limited to
eastern portions of the area that have had some recent wetting rain.
Portions of northeast NM may require a warning on Monday if fuels
are determined to be receptive to fire spread. Temperatures will
drop to near/below average behind a Pacific front Monday through
Wednesday. The combination of an upper level trough and backdoor
front will bring chances for wetting showers and storms Tue/Wed,
mainly to northern and eastern NM. Another trough may bring chances
for wetting storms, mainly to eastern NM, on Friday. Chances for
critical fire weather conditions will be back on the uptrend next
weekend as a potent west coast trough moves inland and steers
stronger westerlies over the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 41 70 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 35 69 30 62 / 0 5 0 0
Cuba............................ 39 71 31 63 / 0 5 0 0
Gallup.......................... 31 66 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 37 67 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 34 72 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 37 67 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 45 74 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
Datil........................... 38 68 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
Reserve......................... 35 70 27 71 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 37 75 32 75 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 35 64 28 56 / 0 5 0 0
Los Alamos...................... 48 71 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
Pecos........................... 41 72 35 63 / 10 0 0 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 40 67 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
Red River....................... 36 58 28 52 / 10 0 0 0
Angel Fire...................... 32 65 25 57 / 20 0 0 0
Taos............................ 36 71 30 64 / 5 0 0 0
Mora............................ 38 70 33 63 / 20 0 0 0
Espanola........................ 46 78 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe........................ 46 73 38 63 / 5 0 0 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 44 76 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 78 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 50 80 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 48 81 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 49 80 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
Belen........................... 44 83 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 48 81 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 44 82 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 47 81 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 43 82 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 50 77 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 49 80 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 47 84 42 80 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 72 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 47 75 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
Edgewood........................ 43 75 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 37 76 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 40 72 35 65 / 5 0 0 0
Mountainair..................... 46 73 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 43 75 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 51 80 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 49 73 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
Capulin......................... 45 72 37 66 / 30 0 0 0
Raton........................... 43 76 34 70 / 30 0 0 0
Springer........................ 44 77 36 71 / 30 0 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 43 73 37 66 / 20 0 0 0
Clayton......................... 50 80 45 74 / 30 0 0 0
Roy............................. 48 77 41 69 / 40 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 52 86 46 78 / 40 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 49 83 45 75 / 30 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 55 86 48 78 / 50 0 5 0
Clovis.......................... 56 87 51 81 / 40 5 10 0
Portales........................ 55 88 50 82 / 30 0 10 0
Fort Sumner..................... 55 88 49 80 / 50 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 55 94 55 87 / 5 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 48 85 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
Elk............................. 49 81 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ101-105-
106-109-120>125.
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ208-211-
216>218-230>233-238-241.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ105-106-109.
High Wind Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ212>215-
219>229-239-240.
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ234-235-237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...44
Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
939 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Following the passage of a cold front, a few additional
scattered rain showers and even a few wet snow showers over the
higher elevations are expected tonight into Sunday morning,
mainly across Central New York. High pressure then builds over
the area Sunday into Monday with dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Heading toward the overnight, cold air advection continues with
a few spotty showers forming in the northwest flow that should
increase into the overnight hours.
As of early evening, the cold front is sweeping through the
area currently moving through the Hudson Valley and NE PA.
Temperature drops are occurring fairly rapidly behind it. Also,
a look at the latest NAM and HRRR delay the onset of wrap
around showers this evening with the main timeframe shifting
into the overnight.
230 PM Update...
A cold front will push through the area this afternoon and
evening, with winds shifting to WNW-NW and increasing between
15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph tonight into Sunday. Colder
air pushes in on NW flow overnight and wraparound moisture
arrives as the closed mid/upper level low spins east through
the Adirondacks and southern New England. 850mb temperatures
drop to around -2 or -3C late tonight, and surface temperatures
reach the mid-30s to lower 40s. There is some potential for snow
flakes across to mix in across the higher elevations of CNY
late tonight into early Sunday morning...but no accumulation
expected. Clouds and light rain/drizzle linger Sunday morning,
before the upper level low slides off the New England coast and
ridging builds in from the west. Clearing skies expected Sunday
from late morning to afternoon...lingering longest over the
Catskills where the clouds may not break for some sun until
late afternoon. Further back to the west, abundant sunshine is
expected Sunday by afternoon, but it will still be cool with
breezy NW winds. Highs will be in the 50s for most
locations...except perhaps low 60s for the Chemung river valley
and Wyoming Valley locations. Winds will weaken Sunday night and
with clear skies, radiational cooling will drop lows into the
mid to upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
240 PM Update...
Upper level ridge moves into the region on Monday along with
high pressure. Another quiet day is in store with temperatures
warming into the upper 60s to low 70s. Clear skies are expected
throughout the day and overnight hours. Winds will remain calm
and variable during the day before shifting south Monday evening
as the ridge progresses east. This will keep temperatures in
the mid 40s to low 50s overnight. Clear skies and light winds
may allow temperatures to fall a few degrees lower.
Cold front moves in behind the upper ridge on Tuesday bringing a
chance of rain showers and thunderstorms to the region. Southwest
flow will advect a warm and unstable air mass ahead of the
front. Model soundings show potential for strong to severe
storms with CAPE values up to 1,500 J/KG. Other favorable
parameters include 40 to 45 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear,
favorable mid level lapse rates and steep low level lapse rates.
Soundings also show a cap in place for most of the day, but as
temperatures warm mid afternoon the cap is expected to break.
Highs will climb into the mid to upper 70s with partly sunny
skies. Timing of the frontal passage appears to be late
afternoon into early evening. There is still some uncertainty
in the timing and how far east instability reaches. SPC has most
of our region in a slight risk for severe storms with
exceptions over the Western Catskills, Wyoming Valley and Pocono
mountain region as instability doesn`t reach that far.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
240 PM Update...
Ridge builds back in by Wednesday with high pressure west of our
region. This will keep conditions dry with skies expected to clear
by the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front with
highs ranging in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the region. As the
ridge slides east, our region again gets placed in southwesterly
flow. This will allow warm moist air to get advected back into the
region by Thursday. A short wave moving along with ridge will bring
an initial round of showers Thursday, but the main round is expected
to move through Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures will
gradually warm as the week progresses with highs in the mid 60s to
low 70s Thursday and Friday. Models begin to diverge by Saturday
making the weekend forecast a bit uncertain at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Post-frontal low clouds and possibly some light rain showers or
drizzle will bring at least MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling
restrictions tonight for most terminals. Occasional IFR ceilings
will be possible after midnight, mainly at KBGM, KITH, KSYR,
and KRME. After some lingering low ceilings Sunday morning,
gradual improvement is expected by the afternoon with most
terminals returning to VFR by 18Z.
Winds will be out of northwest with occasional gusts of 25-30kts
possible at times through most of the period. Winds begin to
diminish by late Sunday afternoon and especially by Sunday
evening.
Outlook...
Sunday night through Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Potential for afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain
showers, mainly during the afternoon and through the evening.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BJG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
949 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy to windy conditions at times through Monday.
- Patchy fog possible west late tonight into Sunday morning.
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday evening through
Monday for the southern half of the state, as well as in the
east. There is a 30 to 50 percent chance of showers in the far
north central and far northwest.
- Isolated to scattered severe storms possible Sunday evening
into Sunday night for all but north central and northeastern
North Dakota. The best chances are in the southwestern quarter
of the state.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Low stratus over far western ND actually retreated east a bit
more than anticipated this evening, but looks to be expanding
back to the west. Some increasing high clouds are also tracking
across this area. Other than some minor changes to sky cover, no
significant changes for the late evening update. Updated text
products will be transmitted shortly.
UPDATE
Issued at 558 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Latest satellite loop shows cloudy skies across all of western
and central ND, although there were a couple breaks in the far
southwest through west central. There may be a few more breaks
here this evening, but the overall trend is for low stratus to
expand over western ND later this evening and spread into
central ND overnight. Some fog is possible late tonight into
Sunday morning over portions of the west. Winds have dropped off
a bit from this afternoon, and expect this trend to continue
this evening, although it will remain breezy this evening west
and through much of the night central. Shower activity has
pretty much lifted north and east of the forecast area, although
a slight chance of a shower can not be ruled out across eastern
portions of central ND tonight. Adjusted pops down a little
from previous forecast keeping chances mostly over just the
James River Valley after mid evening. Some adjustments were also
made to keep cloudy skies across most of the forecast area
through tonight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Gusty winds will diminish this evening through tonight, though
will remain breezy over most areas that are along and east of
Highway 83, while also along and south of Highway 200. Breezy
conditions are expected to persist at those locations through
the day Sunday as well. Patchy fog may also develop over western
ND tonight into Sunday morning.
For Sunday, fairly broad surface low pressure will start out
along the High Plains before gradually organizing through the
day. By around 1 am CDT Sunday night, tightening low pressure is
progged to reach the vicinity of western Nebraska/South Dakota.
By 7 am CDT, it`s expected to become tightly wound over South
Dakota. What does this mean for severe weather? Well, as the low
approaches western Nebraska/South Dakota, southerly surface
flow will likely advect boundary layer dewpoints in excess of 50
degrees into at least southern North Dakota. This will enhance
instability with the HREF mean suggesting just over 1000 J/kg
of MUCAPE in southwestern North Dakota and lower amounts further
north and east. Similarly, the HREF mean brings around 30 to 35
kts of wind shear as well. This generally aligns well with
deterministic guidance, although the RAP brings much higher
instability to the southwest and south central near the ND/SD
border. Deterministic guidance is also closer to 35 to 45 kts of
0 to 6 km shear.
Despite instability that isn`t exactly the highest, 0 to 6 km
wind shear of 35 to 45 kts over the most unstable areas is
sufficient to produce severe weather. As such, the expectation
remains the possibility of isolated to scattered severe storms
producing hail up to the size of golf balls and winds up to 60
mph. In the area in the far southwest where higher low level
shear is forecast, an isolated tornado is possible Sunday
evening as well.
One thing to point out is that a stout cap should prevent
convection during the day Sunday. In addition, most models
suggest it never fully erodes for most of the area, except
potentially the far southwest with the isolated tornado threat.
Therefore it seems convection is favored to remain more
elevated. If that turns out to be the case, large hail will be
the primary threat over anything else.
Regardless of how the severe weather threat plays out Sunday
evening/night, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
Sunday night through the day Monday, especially in southern and
eastern portions of the state. For southern and eastern
portions of the state, probabilities of more than an inch of
rain are in excess of 50 percent. Even higher amounts are
possible on a localized basis, especially where any
thunderstorms develop. The severe weather threat will have
primarily moved off to the east by Monday. Though there remains
a low severe threat mainly Monday morning in the James River
Valley.
Behind this system, expect dry conditions Tuesday before a weak
shortwave passes through sometime Tuesday night through
Wednesday. This wave may produce a few more showers, though
indications are of relatively light rain with this system. Dry
conditions are then currently anticipated to finish out the
week. Temperatures Tuesday will range from the mid 50s to mid
60s, then increase into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.
Highs in the upper 60s and 70s are then possible to finish out
the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Strong southeast winds will diminish this evening, although it
will remain breezy in the west this evening and in central ND
through the night. Widespread low VFR ceilings extend across
much of western and central ND, with MVFR ceilings over the
southwest, including KDIK to begin the 00Z TAF period. Expect
MVFR ceilings to lower over western ND later this evening and
spread east into central ND. Although widespread fog is not
expected, and in the west, stratus is favored over TAF sites of
KDIK and KXWA, there will be a potential for areas of fog along
the western fringes of the stratus and we did include the
potential for MVFR-IFR vsbys in fog at KXWA and KDIK Sunday
morning. Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings expected across western
and central ND late tonight through Sunday morning, with areas
of LIFR ceilings possible, though favored over southwest ND.
Skies are expected to clear from west to east beginning mid to
late morning over western ND. Shower and thunderstorm activity
may return to far western and southern portions of the forecast
area towards the very end of the 00Z TAF period, but
uncertainty is too high to include at any TAF site attim.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
615 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog, some dense, may develop in the north Platte Valley
and I-80 corridor late tonight and early Sunday morning.
- Warmer temperatures can be expected again on Sunday with
scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms east of I-25. Some of these storms may be
severe.
- Low pressure early to middle of next week continues our rain
chances, with high pressure then drying the region out to end
the week and start the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Latest satellite loop was showing some low convergence along
the front range this afternoon with some cumulus developing in
an environment with still some decent CINH in place east of the
Laramie Range. However, there is minimal CINH south of the
border. Surface based CAPE values are ranging from 1000-1500
j/kg south of the border with even 40 to 45kts of effective
shear. Low and mid level lapse rates appear to be fairly steep
at this time, but not confident that any storm that does develop
south of the border will be able to achieve severe limits due
to limited CAPE to overcome the shear. The 18Z HRRR is trying to
pop up some showers, but it appears to be very shortlived.
Meanwhile, the 12Z FV3 is a little more ambitious in showing a
stronger thunderstorm, but it is rather shortlived as well.
Otherwise, things should remain fairly quiet this evening.
Latest observations were showing dewpoints staying in the 40s
this afternoon. This low level moisture does not appear to be
mixing out especially over areas east of the I-25 corridor where
most of the models are showing things drying out fairly quickly
this afternoon. The only model that seems to have the better
handle on the low level moisture right now is the NAMNest. As a
result, we are following closer to this solution tonight which
also brings the low clouds/fog back into the picture after
midnight. We did go ahead and mention some patchy fog again
along the Cheyenne Ridge and North Platte Valley.
Once again we followed the NAMNest solution with the low level
moisture on Sunday. The rest of the models are drying us out in
the afternoon which seems to be a little ambitious considering
we have stiff south-southeast flow through the day ahead of the
surface low. The main question will be whether or not we will
see a Chugwater cyclone develop tomorrow afternoon. If it does
develop during the late afternoon, we may see the potential for
a couple of supercells develop and possibly move into the
Nebraska panhandle. The right movers would tend to favor the
northern Panhandle vs. the southern Panhandle, but we will need
to keep an eye where this surface low may develop. See the
latest SPC outlook for further details. The models are in favor
of showing the cold front surging through the area on Sunday
night bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms over
much of southeast Wyoming and Nebraska panhandle during the
evening. Once the thunderstorms pass, we will see partial
clearing, cooler and more breezy conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Monday, another shortwave moves through the Intermountain West to
continue our precipitation chances in the afternoon. There is some
strong isentropic lift on the tail end of the trough of the system
that moved through Sunday. There looks to be some warm air advection
as well to provide some extra lift for some stratified rain. Most of
accumulations are in our northern counties with the 25th percentile
showing around 0.05 inches and the 75th percentile around 0.2
inches. This is mainly tied to the amount of moisture available to
lift as a secondary front created by the upper level trough pushes
through around midday. There could isolated higher amounts if storms
do develop in the afternoon but we are not expecting anything like
on Sunday as we are in a general thunder risk.
Tuesday through Thursday, Multiple shortwaves will pass through the
Intermountain West to give us daily afternoon shower potential these
three days. With the limited vorticity and lack of vort maxes, there
is no a whole lot of forcing to really develop strong storms. Any
showers that do develop will be diurnal in nature and produce light
rain accumulations.
Friday and the weekend, there is model consensus with upper level
ridging building over the Intermountain West to give us a brief
break in this rainy pattern. There is a little bit of disagreement
on how long this ridge will last ahead of another low pressure
system arriving to give us renewed precipitation chances.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Next Pacific storm system will slowly move eastward across the Rocky
Mountain Region tonight, and bring thunderstorms to the eastern
plains Sunday afternoon. Before that, another round of low CIGS and
some fog expected late this evening and tonight.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: For southeast Wyoming terminals...VFR
conditions expected for most of tonight with occasionally breezy
southerly winds gusting up to 25 knots.
For western Nebraska terminals...MVFR conditions this evening will
deteriorate to IFR near or a few hours after sunset (02z). Periods
of LIFR conditions possible in patchy fog, mainly over KSNY and
KAIA. Pretty low confidence (30% to 50%) for KCDR due to the
position of the low level jet and wind gusts up to 35 knots.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
610 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet weather is expected tonight and Sunday.
- Storm chances return late Monday night and continue through the
week. Some severe weather will be possible during this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening through Sunday Night/
Things are generally quiet across North Texas this evening with
most of the vigorous convection to the north of the Red River
along a stationary frontal boundary. A few storms developed across
our far northeast counties, but these have since move out of the
area. For the remainder of this evening, we`ll be watching a
southward moving outflow boundary which could help trigger an
isolated shower/storm, but latest RAP objective analysis shows a
relative minimum in instability along the I-20 corridor. Farther
south, a few warm advection showers/storms may continue through
the remainder of daylight across our Central TX counties.
Otherwise, it`ll be partly to mostly cloudy for the rest of the
late evening hours.
Mid level ridging will be in place across the far Southern Plains
on Sunday and should result in a precipitation free day across
North and Central Texas. Southerly winds will increase through the
afternoon as highs climb into the mid and upper 80s.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 153 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/
Update:
The long-term period remains active across our region with
multiple opportunities for rain next week. We continue to
highlight the potential for both severe weather and locally heavy
rain, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time the greatest
severe weather risk is expected on Wednesday as a dryline
approaches from the west and a slow moving boundary travels from
the north. Overall our thinking about timing, hazards, and impacts
hasn`t changed with this forecast update. See the discussion below
for more details.
Sanchez
Previous Discussion:
/Sunday Through Late Next Week/
Our first rain-free day in quite some time is expected on Sunday.
Southerly winds and mostly sunny skies will result in warm
temperatures across the region with highs in the 80s. Our quiet
period will be short-lived as active weather will return late
Monday. A mid-level trough will be placed near the West Coast,
with a shortwave expected to eject from northern Mexico Monday
afternoon as a dryline simultaneously sharpens across West Texas.
As a result, isolated to scattered storms may develop along the
dryline, and if they do, they will make a run at western portions
of the forecast area Monday evening. The environment will be
supportive of discrete supercells capable of producing all
hazards. However, the main caveat that could make or break our
chances of seeing impactful storms will be the potential presence
of a cap. Hopefully, the strength of the cap (or lack thereof)
will become more evident as we get within range of hi-res
guidance this weekend.
On Tuesday, the upper level trough will continue moving east
through the Southwest CONUS. A surface low will have ejected from
the Front Range in response, sending a cold front into the
Southern Plains. However, this front will likely stall prior to
reaching the area Tuesday afternoon. The stalled front and a
dryline across West Texas will both serve as a focus for
thunderstorm development on Tuesday, with coverage peaking during
the afternoon. Abundant instability and ~30-40 knots of deep layer
shear will certainly support a threat for severe storms. Low-
level wind profiles don`t appear to be overly supportive of
tornadoes on Tuesday, but the threat will be non-zero. Large hail
and damaging winds will likely be the primary threats.
The mid-level trough will swing into West Texas Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, with another surface low ejecting from
northern Mexico ahead of the trough. A dryline will already be in
place across West Texas, but will be ushered further east by the
surface low throughout the day. Showers and thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing early in the morning as a result of strong
ascent from all of these features. However, storm coverage is
expected to peak Wednesday afternoon and evening as the dryline
enters western portions of the forecast area. At this time, the
environment is expected to be supportive of all severe weather
hazards, including a tornado threat. Continue to monitor the
forecast over the next few days, as specific timing and threat
areas come into focus.
A cold front will move through the region on Thursday, but a
consensus is yet to be made whether the front will bring an end to
this period of active weather. The NBM continues to output low
rain chances late next week into early next weekend. Ensemble
members are fairly split between active vs dry weather - perhaps
very slightly favoring the dry solution. However, given the lack
of confidence, will stick closely with the NBM for now. Otherwise,
temperatures won`t be significantly affected by the front with
highs remaining in the 70s and 80s through the end of the week.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
VFR prevails across the region at this hour and should continue
through the late evening. Our main concerns in the immediate short
term will be a southward moving outflow boundary which may
temporarily shift winds to the north for an hour or so right
around 00-01Z. This boundary should start to lose some momentum
here shortly, so any wind shift may be brief and of little overall
impact.
Otherwise, convection should remain to the north and northeast of
the major airports through the rest of the evening and concerns
would then turn to potential for MVFR cigs late overnight into
early Sunday morning. Moist southerly flow should result in a
fairly good coverage of low clouds through the morning so we`ll
continue with MVFR cigs through late Sun morning. VFR will prevail
Sunday afternoon and evening.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 85 69 86 69 / 10 0 0 5 20
Waco 67 86 69 86 69 / 20 0 0 0 5
Paris 63 83 67 83 67 / 30 0 0 0 10
Denton 63 84 66 84 66 / 10 0 0 10 20
McKinney 65 83 67 84 67 / 10 0 0 5 20
Dallas 67 85 69 86 69 / 10 0 0 5 20
Terrell 64 84 68 85 67 / 10 0 0 0 5
Corsicana 67 85 69 86 69 / 5 0 0 0 5
Temple 66 88 69 88 69 / 20 0 0 0 5
Mineral Wells 64 87 67 87 66 / 10 0 0 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
645 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low temperatures tonight into Sunday morning drop into the
30s. Frost will be possible in areas mainly west of US-31 and
north of US-6. Temperatures then trend warmer through Tuesday.
- Thunderstorms possible across the area early Tuesday morning through
early Wednesday morning. Storms may become strong to severe,
especially Tuesday afternoon/evening. Still considerable
uncertainty on the details at this time.
- After a brief reprieve, rain quickly returns to the area mid
to late week with thunderstorms also possible at times.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025
A trough swung through Michigan this morning allowing northwest
winds to come into the area and keep us cooler today. Low clouds
broke up midday into the early afternoon allowing temperatures to
reach the 50s to low 60s today. With clouds breaking up today and
winds becoming light to calm by after midnight, temperatures will
have a good chance to drop into the 30s tonight allowing for a
chance for frost. METRo model shows road temps taking their time to
reach the upper 30s despite having air temperatures reaching the
upper 30s during the evening. The other issue is clouds may try to
arrive during the overnight, which would slow down any radiational
cooling that may have taken place. It still looks like the area most
conducive to frost would be west of US-31 and north of US-6. Even
the warmest of the models (the low res models including the
GFS/ECMWF and the NBM as well as high res models like the RAP and
HREF) have some frost formation in this area. Even though
uncertainty remains, still think the threat is high enough to send
out a frost advisory to cover these areas. Will keep the advisory
from Pulaski, Fulton, southern Kos, Whitley, Dekalb, and Williams
where a combination of factors including warm ground, high clouds
(generally west), and low to no residence time of 30 degree
temps is expected to keep widespread frost at bay. Have
retained patchy frost in the weather grids in a few of these
locations where outlying areas could still see frost.
Surface high pressure pushes through Sunday morning and south winds
become more prevalent across the area midday into the afternoon.
This allows temperatures to trend warmer: from the 50s and low 60s
today to everywhere surpassing 60 degrees on Sunday and surpassing
70 degrees to potentially reaching 80 in our southwest on Monday.
Mixing heights increase during the day and a low level jet edges
into our west later afternoon Monday allowing breezes between 20
and 30 mph to pick up.
A warm front looks to push through during Monday evening allowing 60
degree dew points to creep in on Tuesday. At least elevated
instability and 7 C/km mid level lapse rates reside across the area
Monday night and even the believable (speed-wise) ECMWF model
brings precipitation through late Monday night and Tuesday
morning and then brings the front into our NW at 18z leaving
just south of US-24 to taste the better warm sector airmass on
Tuesday. Given these times of rain, still noting plenty of
uncertainty with how severe this chance for thunderstorms gets
on Tuesday. There`s some question with how much the mid level
lapse rates get washed out Monday night and Tuesday, which would
impede the ceiling for the hail threat. Sufficient effective
shear (>30 kts) looks to arrive as early as Monday night and
continue into Tuesday out ahead of the cold front. Effective
helicity still looks strong enough so that this threat cannot be
removed yet. Boundary-parallel flow would likely allow for
training storms and introduce a flood threat with anomalous
PWATs. Boundary orientation makes discrete cells look a little
less possible in our area. Even still, all threats look
possible, we`re gonna need to get enough instability to form and
the timing of the pieces to line up to get this severe threat
to be realized.
The aforementioned surface high pressure slows down along the
western Atlantic and this helps to slow down the cold front just to
our south Tuesday night into early Wednesday. For later Wednesday,
we`ll begin to see a sheared out developing upper low captured by
the next trough and carried northward so that chances for rain
return and continue through late week. We`ll also have anomalous
PWATs as the low pressure system passes (probably Thursday). Some
thunder will also be possible (maybe south of US-24) Thursday
afternoon. Given this increased moisture and repeated rain chances,
the flood threat would be increased if they are realized.
A return to quieter weather is expected for next weekend as
another trough pushes through the north and brings in a cooler
and drier airmass.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025
VFR through the period as sfc ridging moves across the
terminals.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/
Sunday for INZ005>008-012-014-103-104-116-203-204.
OH...None.
MI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ078>081-177-
277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...T
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
948 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
...New UPDATE, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
As of 930 PM CDT, the last remaining severe convection has exited
our zones, prompting the end of Tornado Watch 176 here.
Temperatures remain in the mid-to-upper 70s with calm winds,
setting the stage for fog potential once again tonight.
Temperature minimums will remain milder than normal in the mid-to-
upper 60s as a result. With weather and observed trends
continuing as anticipated, additional forecast grid adjustments
were not necessary at this time. /16/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Partly cloudy skies this mid afternoon with air temps in the mid
80s for most with a couple upper 80s along I-49 in LA. The wind
has picked up now west of I-49 and 5KT or less to the east. We
even see some gustiness over our deep E TX Counties. The SPC did
scale back a bit on the Slight Risk late this morning, but has
just updated again to expand the Slight Risk down the Red River
Valley to include Texarkana now and more of SW AR on the remaining
day one outlook with the good CAPE in place, while leaving the
Marginal and the General across more of E TX. We are still looking
for some damaging wind primarily as the towers build into
scattered thunderstorms during the remaining daylight. The latest
HRRR continues to focus the bulk of convection north of the Red
River into the early evening and shifting a percolation of showers
and isolated thunderstorms ongoing across south AR until well
after midnight. This will be it for a while as we trend a little
warmer and drier to unfold during Sunday and into the start the
new week. So upper 80s are likely to become a little more
widespread, if not a few more sites reaching that 90 degree mark.
Lows again tomorrow night will see mid to upper 60s as the ridging
builds over Mexico and expands out over the western Gulf of
America through the short term and early long.
/24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Both the GFS and the ECMWF build the upper ridge and hold around
590dam to start the new work week and this will effectively suppress
our rain chances through Tuesday as temps continue to warm
slightly. Meanwhile, the deep synoptic trough offshore of the
west coast will edge a deep core of 548dam over CA/NV early in the
week that will fill and drift across the Four Corners. The light
NW flow we have seen will back with deepening SW flow and slowly
edge our next system eastward by midweek. The ECMWF is a little
more liberal with light QPF arriving during early Wednesday and
the GFS focuses on the our I-30 corridor by noon, expanding S and
E late day and especially overnight. This will be when we see our
highest pops, which will linger into Thursday. So we will see a
wet end to a wet month and kick off May with ongoing convection.
The WPC has expanded the Slight and Marginal ERO`s during the same
time as we turn the page on the calendar. As they have bumped
totals for much of area during mid to late week with the days 1-5
now sporting some better than 3 inch amounts along and north of
our I-30 corridor. It is now just our far eastern Parishes with
less than one inch expected. So this will help keep back the
drought monitor for a while longer. And perhaps more as the CPC 8
to 14 day outlook trends us back a little closer to average temps
and a little above on rainfall for the first week or two into May.
/24/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
For the 27/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions are currently in place
at our terminal locations but convection near and north of KTXK
could result in tempo conditions of MVFR cigs/vsby along with some
stronger wind gusts upwards of 35 kts or higher. Elsewhere, shwrs
and thunderstorms are much more isolated along the I-20 terminals
so will have to monitor KSHV especially for the potential of VCTS
or tempo TSRA conditions through early evening. A stalled frontal
boundary across our far northern airspace will begin to lift back
northward on Sunday morning throughout the remainder of the day.
As a result, some low stratus and patchy fog is expected to bring
a return of MVFR conditions through mid to late Sunday morning.
VFR conditions will return by the afternoon with increasing south
winds between 6-12 kts and higher gusts beginning around 27/15Z.
/19/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 67 89 69 88 / 20 0 0 0
MLU 68 89 67 88 / 10 10 0 0
DEQ 62 85 64 85 / 60 10 0 0
TXK 66 88 67 89 / 50 10 0 0
ELD 63 88 64 88 / 30 10 0 0
TYR 65 86 69 86 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 65 87 67 87 / 20 0 0 0
LFK 65 87 68 88 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
700 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorm chances today, with lower chances Sunday.
- Storms could be strong to severe, mainly Monday and Monday night
and again Tuesday and Tuesday Night, with large hail, damaging
winds and isolated tornadoes possible.
- There is also potential for flash flooding for any areas that
receive repeated rounds of rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
As of 2:15 PM, radar imagery across the Big Country showed a
weakening area of rain showers and thunderstorms across northern
Haskell and Throckmorton Counties. Radar trends indicate that this
activity will likely fizzle and remain well to the north.
However, both the NAMNEST and HRRR models are indicating another
round of thunderstorms to potentially develop off to the northwest
and move southeast across the Concho Valley late this afternoon
into the evening. However, chances will generally remain in the
30-40% range given the lack of coverage. It`s worth noting that we
are included in a Marginal Risk (5% chance) of severe weather for
the remainder of today and tonight. An isolated severe storm
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds cannot be
completely ruled out. Should this activity develop a bit further
north than expected, recent rainfall across the northern Big
Country could have left fairly saturated soil conditions favorable
for potential flash flooding in place. The highest risk for this
will be across Haskell and Throckmorton Counties, where a Flood
Watch will remain in effect. There is Slight Risk (15-40% chance)
of seeing excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding per the
Weather Prediction Center. Otherwise, tomorrow (Sunday) is looking
relatively quiet as most of the convection will remain off to the
west and northwest of our area for the most part.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Main upper level trough will remain across the Southwest US into
Monday, with another shortwave expected to move northeast across
the Southern Plains. Dryline will sharpen up off to the west, with
convection likely to develop and spread northeast into West
Central Texas in the afternoon and evening hours as the low level
jet ramps up. SPC has portions of the area outlooked in DAY3
already and see nothing to argue wit this thinking. Best chances
for rain probably across the Concho Valley and Big Country, closer
to where the convection may develop. Storms possible farther east
as well but will need to see how convection/associated outflow
may move to get down there.
Best chance for storms will come Tuesday into Wednesday as the
main upper trough moves into the area. Plenty of moisture and
instability in place ahead of it so convection will develop once
again during the afternoon hours. Low level jet even stronger and
increases near 60kts Tuesday evening, aiding the spread of
convection into West Central Texas perhaps past sunrise Wednesday
morning. Again, SPC has much of the area outlooked in a DAY4 area
and this looks completely reasonable. Will need to watch a heavy
rain threat as well, especially for areas that end up seeing the
heavier rainfall Monday Night.
After another brief lull as the trough passes on Thursday and
some upper level ridging builds into place, the pattern reloads
for the weekend. Upper level trough will settle into the Southwest
US and the dryline will start start sloshing back and forth
across the area. Models struggle with shortwave timing that far
out and not going to worry about details at that range, but the
pattern and that fact that it will be the start of May suggests
severe threat to continue.
Not much to say about temperatures with lows generally in the 60s
and highs in the 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
VFR conditions will prevail with ceilings 4 to 5k ft. Stratus
redevelops overnight, with ceilings lowering to MVFR and
persisting through the mid to late morning hours. A few showers
are possible this evening, primarily at KSJT and KABI. Will
include a TEMPO group for the next several hours to account for
this potential. Expect light winds overnight, with southeast
winds gusting 20 to 25 knots after 15Z. VFR conditions expected
at all terminals by afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 65 88 68 87 / 30 0 10 10
San Angelo 64 90 67 88 / 20 0 0 10
Junction 62 90 65 89 / 10 0 0 0
Brownwood 63 88 66 87 / 30 0 0 10
Sweetwater 65 88 68 87 / 40 0 10 20
Ozona 64 87 66 87 / 20 0 10 10
Brady 63 88 66 87 / 20 0 0 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Haskell-Throckmorton.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...24