Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/26/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
939 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near normal temperatures on Saturday, followed by well above
normal on Sunday.
- Low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) for hit or miss rain
showers on Saturday.
- Medium to high chances (50 to 90 percent) of rain across most
of western and central North Dakota late Sunday through
Monday night. Low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent)
northwest and north central.
- Low to medium chances for thunderstorms Sunday evening through
Monday, mainly across the southern half of the state. Isolated
strong to severe storms possible Sunday evening.
- Breezy to windy conditions at times Saturday through Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Only change to the forecast was to lower sky cover this evening.
Otherwise no changes were needed.
UPDATE
Issued at 559 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
No significant changes to the forecast needed early this
evening. Generally light winds and clear to partly cloudy skies.
Clouds will be on the increase though late tonight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
It`s a beautiful afternoon across western and central North
Dakota this Friday with generally light winds and plenty of
sunshine. Today`s temperatures are near to slightly above normal
with highs ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Tonight`s
lows are forecast to be in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Clouds will be on the increase overnight across the south,
spreading north through the day on Saturday as we transition
back into southwest flow aloft and moisture return starts to
kick in. A weak embedded shortwave will move across the state
from southwest to northeast through the day on Saturday, leading
to some hit or miss showers (20 to 40 percent). RAP soundings
suggest that most of the instability will remain south of the
state, but we could see some MUCAPE values around 100 to 200
J/kg along the South Dakota border across the far south central
and southeast. Thus, a rumble of thunder or two here cannot be
completely ruled out, but the probability is low at the moment.
With the increasing cloud cover and showers, temperatures on
Saturday are forecast to be just a touch cooler, with highs in
the mid 50s to lower 60s. Additionally, a tightening pressure
gradient and steep low-level lapse rates may lead to some
breezy/windy conditions (winds out of the south southeast).
While widespread cloud cover and warm air advection may limit
mixing to some extent, the NAEFS does continue to hint at
anomalously strong 850mb meridional flow for this time of year.
Thus, we could see some sporadic stronger gusts (up to 45 mph)
at times through the day, especially under any of the hit or
miss showers that are forecast to move across the state.
We will remain in southwest flow aloft on Sunday but neutral to
slightly rising heights are forecast, so most of the day will
remain dry as the atmosphere remains capped. Cloudy conditions
are likely to hang on across the central and east but we may
clear out some in the west. Breezy conditions will also move off
to eastern portions of the forecast area, in and around the
James River Valley. Temperatures will be well above normal on
Sunday with NBM highs ranging from the mid to upper 60s over the
Turtle Mountains, to the mid to upper 70s across the southwest.
As we approach Sunday evening, a western CONUS longwave trough
will start to nudge closer. Subsequently, we will also start to
see some mid-level height falls across western North Dakota as a
surface low deepens somewhere over eastern Wyoming or western
South Dakota/Nebraska. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing
over southeast Montana and northwest South Dakota and this
activity should start to move in after 00z Monday along a cold
front. New development is also likely to spread north northeast
across the state from the southwest and south central in the
evening and into the overnight hours, becoming widespread
statewide with medium to high chances (50 to 90 percent). The
one area that may not see much activity will be the northwest
and portions of the north central.
Regarding the strong to severe thunderstorm potential,
confidence has decreased a little bit. The highest probabilities
in the CSU Machine Learning guidance continue to dip a little
bit further south and the EFI has also backed off a bit on the
anomalous CAPE signal. Some scenarios continue to suggest MUCAPE
values in the 700 to 1500 J/kg across portions of the south but
some scenarios keep the best instability limited to the far
southwest and portions of the far south central. Either way,
deep layer shear should be sufficient for organized convection
and some risk of marginally severe hail or severe wind gusts
seems reasonable through around 06z Monday or so. Widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue through Monday
night (thunderstorms chances will be diminishing to the
southeast through the day on Monday). It is looking more and
more likely that we will see some widespread beneficial rainfall
totals Sunday evening through Monday night. NBM probabilities
(for 48-hour rainfall) now suggest medium to high chances (50
to 90 percent) for a half inch of rain or more along and south
of a line from southern Golden Valley county, northeast through
far western McLean county, and up to the greater Devils Lake
Basin. The highest probabilities will be across the south
central and southeast with the lowest probabilities northwest
and north central. Increasing the threshold to one inch and we
still see much of the same area ranging from 40 to 70 percent.
Due to the convective nature, some in the higher probability
areas may not see near as much as others and some may see
amounts even higher. These details will likely not present
themselves until the showers and storms have already developed.
Finally, it will be windy and cooler behind the front on Monday
as strong cold air advection overlaps strong pressure rises and
steep low-level lapse rates. Strong northerly winds to around
30 mph with gusts to 45 mph will be possible, with the strongest
winds favored over the southeast. Highs on Monday will range
from the lower 50s northwest, to the low to mid 60s southeast.
Rain will move out to the southeast Monday night, giving way to
a mostly dry Tuesday and warmer temperatures west as we
transition into zonal flow aloft. Highs will be in the lower 50s
east, to the lower 60s west. A weak shortwave may then move
through Tuesday night, leading to low to medium rain chances (20
to 40 percent) Tuesday night through Wednesday. West coast
ridge then pops up and nudges closer on Thursday, leading to a
gradual warmup through the rest of the week with highs mainly in
the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
VFR conditions are expected tonight, with low VFR ceilings
spreading south to north on Saturday. Areas of MVFR ceilings are
possible over western ND Saturday, but at this time kept the
only mention at KDIK, as lower ceilings will be more probable
over the southwest. Scattered showers will also spread from
south to north Saturday over central ND. Included a PROB30 at
KBIS and VCSH at KDIK and KMOT. Strong southeast winds will
develop Saturday across western and central North Dakota. By
Saturday afternoon most areas will see southeast winds 20 to 35
knots.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
612 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
This afternoon.
Longwave troughing extended from over the Mid-Mississippi River
Valley Region south along the Mississippi/Alabama State Line at
this hour. RAP 13 km analysis depict a defined shortwave over the
West and Northwest portions of the state that was continuing to
support showers with a few thunderstorms. This activity is
becoming more outflow-dominant as it continues to move further
east. A second shortwave was moving east over Southern Mississippi
and was supporting additional convective activity across South-
Central Mississippi that will also move eastward, affecting our
southwest and south-central counties later this afternoon and into
the evening.
High (65-85%) chances for showers with at least isolated (25-45%)
thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon with greatest potential
across the western counties now through mid afternoon and chances
increasing across the central and eastern counties later this
afternoon through the evening hours. Winds will be from the south
to southwest at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the
mid 70s northwest to the mid 80s southeast.
Tonight.
The longwave trough will extend from over the Eastern Ohio River
Valley Region south to over the Northwest Florida Panhandle
tonight while mid-level ridging builds over South Texas.
Convective activity this afternoon and evening is forecast to
continue moving east, creating and maintaining a convective
outflow boundary that will continue moving east into Georgia and
the Carolinas overnight while a surface cold front continues to
approach the area from the northwest and will extend from Western
New York State southwest to across the Mid-South Region after
midnight.
Look for decent coverage (55-75%) of showers and isolated to
scattered (20-40%) thunderstorm activity to continue this evening
before becoming mostly rain showers overnight as the activity
continues to move east with time. Winds will become west to
southwest at 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range from around 60
northeast to the mid 60s south and southwest.
Saturday.
Broad mid-level ridging will extend over South Texas eastward to
over portions of Louisiana and South Mississippi on Saturday while
strong surface high pressure moves southeast out of Central
Canada and becomes centered near Chicago, IL later in the day. The
surface cold front will slowly drift further south and will
become extended roughly along the Interstate 20 corridor toward
sunset.
Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday with isolated to
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity developing through the
day with best chances across the southern portion of the forecast
area. Winds will be from the northwest at 4-8 mph. High
temperatures will range from the lower 80s north and in the higher
terrain east to readings in the mid 80s south.
05
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
No big changes from the previous forecast as targets of
opportunity remaining on the minimal side.
16
Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
The long-term forecast period will continue to feature very warm,
above normal temperatures and mostly rain-free conditions. First
for Sunday, we`ll see a 500mb shortwave passing across the
Tennessee River Valley with a lingering stalled surface boundary.
At least scattered showers and storms can be expected during the
day through Sunday afternoon, but confidence in overall coverage
remains fairly low at this time. The timing of the shortwave would
lend more toward scattered activity due to less available overall
instability during the morning and first half of the day.
Forecast soundings are also indicating this morning a little less
dry air aloft for storms to work with. When we`re able to factor
in high- res guidance over the next day or so, we should be able
to better refine the PoP forecast. Highs on Sunday will range from
the upper 70s in Haleyville north of the stalled front to the
upper 80s in Troy and Eufaula. If we are able to see some strong
storms develop, the best chance would be across the southern third
of the CWA during the late afternoon and early evening hours. SB
CAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg with DCAPE of around 1000 J/kg
would certainly support summer convection-like pulse storms with
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.
On Monday as the old surface boundary washes out, an easterly
surface fetch will move in across Georgia and eastern Alabama as
high pressure moves off the Carolina coastline. Easterly flow at
the surface with westerly flow aloft should produce isentropic
upglide for some clouds and possibly a few showers to develop
roughly along and east of I-65. Otherwise, very warm and dry
weather can be expected for much of the forecast area through
Thursday. Global guidance is giving a better indication that the
ridge will remain strong enough to keep a cold front well off to
north and west of the area, along with the most significant rain
chances. I went ahead and trimmed back on PoPs even further than
NBM guidance as a result Wednesday through Thursday. Those rain
chances may need to be reduced even further over the next couple
of days. A stronger ridge also would lead to hotter daytime
temperatures, and I`ve blended in the higher-end of NBM guidance
for highs Tuesday and Wednesday. Upper 80s to near 90 degrees are
expected areawide, with mid to upper 80s continuing through
Thursday. There are early indications that the ridge may finally
begin to break down by Friday and into next weekend, but it`s too
far out to speak of specifics on that just yet.
56/GDG
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
Showers and storms are currently making their way across Central
AL. Will continue with a mention of SHRA/VCTS for the next couple
of hours. Activity will wane with the loss of daytime heating. Low
level stratus and patchy fog are likely to develop late tonight,
closer to sunrise, across all terminals. Have introduced a mention
of MVFR conditions with TEMPOs for IFR from 10-14Z. VFR conditions
return by 18Z. Westerly winds tonight will become northerly
through the morning hours while remaining generally less than 10
knots.
95/Castillo
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The late spring/early summer-like pattern will continue through
Saturday with chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly during
the afternoon each day. RH values drop into the 35 to 40 percent
range in the southeastern portions of Central Alabama at times,
but remain above 40 percent elsewhere. 20ft winds will generally
remain light in the 5-10 MPH range with occasional gusts to 15 MPH
at times.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 60 85 59 82 / 30 10 0 20
Anniston 61 85 60 83 / 40 10 0 20
Birmingham 63 85 63 84 / 30 10 0 20
Tuscaloosa 64 86 64 86 / 20 10 0 30
Calera 62 85 64 84 / 30 10 0 20
Auburn 63 84 65 85 / 30 10 0 20
Montgomery 65 86 65 88 / 20 10 0 20
Troy 64 86 65 89 / 10 10 0 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...95/Castillo
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1046 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and quiet, and relatively cool through the day Saturday.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances return from Saturday night
into Monday night. There is a low potential of severe storms
Sunday night, mainly northwest and west, then a much higher
and more widespread threat of severe weather Monday afternoon
to Monday night. Details remain uncertain, so continue to
monitor the forecast for updates.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
A surface high pressure ridge will build from Minnesota down
across Iowa and Wisconsin through tonight. Currently thick
clouds persist across much of our forecast area, however some
clearing is working into our northwestern counties as the ridge
builds in and this should progress steadily southward across
Iowa, with diurnally generated stratocumulus behind it
dissipating after sunset, resulting in clear skies for our area
by sunrise Saturday. Close to the ridge axis, over south central
Minnesota, calm winds and longer radiational cooling time
overnight combined with high near-surface moisture due to recent
rains may lead to the formation of fog, possibly dense as
depicted by recent HRRR and RAP runs. However, it remains
unclear how much this will be able to build into northern Iowa
where winds may remain organized but light. The HRRR and RAP do
bring fog just barely into Iowa (around Estherville and Algona)
for a couple hours around sunrise, so this will bear watching
tonight. Otherwise, quiet weather is anticipated through
Saturday as the high pressure slides away to the east resulting
in a fairly cool but dry and partly to mostly sunny day.
By Sunday morning a large 500 mb low will be centered over
Nevada. Weak ridging aloft will move over Iowa but be quickly
succeeded by increasingly southwesterly steering flow by Sunday
night. This will promote steady moisture advection and warm air
advection aloft from Saturday night through Sunday night, and
subtle shortwave impulses ejecting out of the low will interact
with diurnal fluctuations in the LLJ to produce rounds of light
rain/convection across Iowa. The first round will likely move
from west to east across our area late Saturday night and Sunday
morning in association with the first surge of moisture
advection, but instability is very limited and the cloud layer
will be undercut by somewhat dry air flowing out of the receding
surface high, thus mostly scattered light showers are
anticipated during this time. The second round of precipitation
potential is pegged overnight Sunday night into early Monday,
when the LLJ/wind fields will be stronger and more instability
will be present, especially in our western and northwestern
counties. This will result in a window for elevated
thunderstorms overnight in an environment of steadily increasing
shear, perhaps supporting a threat of hail. SPC has a Marginal
Risk just west of our service area, but this may need to be
extended into our western and northwestern counties at some
point.
Finally, Monday promises to be an active day as the severe
thunderstorm potential ramps up quickly in the afternoon and
evening. The 500 mb low will move eastward over the High Plains
but as an open trough, with an associated surface cyclone
deepening over eastern SD and southwestern MN during the day.
Across Iowa we will see strengthening southerly surface flow and
southwesterly flow aloft, resulting in much warmer temperatures
peaking in the low to mid 80s, higher dewpoints well into the
60s, and strong instability and wind shear by the afternoon.
This creates a favorable parameter space for severe
thunderstorms, however, there are several caveats. The first is
the possibility of morning/midday clouds and precipitation
associated with decaying overnight activity and any lingering
boundaries this may lay down, but given the overall
disorganized nature expected from that activity as well as the
strong flow behind it, it is more likely this will be blown out
of our area by the afternoon. Thereafter, while overall CAPE
grows to 2000-2500 J/kg some forecast soundings indicate a
capping EML will remain in place across much of the state during
the afternoon, particularly the NAM although it appears too
saturated in the near-surface layer. Hardly any model solutions
generate discrete cells in this warm sector across our area,
likely resulting from a combination of weak CIN and lack of
convergence/focus mechanism during that time. However, it is
still three days out and if the forecast trends toward a less
inhibited airmass or any triggering mechanism becomes apparent,
any discrete storms that form within the warm sector would have
the potential of surface-based supercells carrying a risk of all
modes of severe weather.
By Monday evening, a cold front trailing from the surface low
over southwestern MN will move into western Iowa and is much
more likely to generate a broken line of storms across at least
portions of our forecast area from evening into early Monday
night. Forecast soundings and hodographs are very supportive of
supercells forming along and just ahead of the boundary,
however, a lack of significant backing in low-level flow may
help to mitigate the lack of strong tornadoes and sounding
analogs favor large hail, with some potential for tornadoes of
the relatively shorter/weaker variety. Obviously, this would
still be very hazardous and such details are very much subject
to change over the next few days, so the large 30% severe
thunderstorm risk outlined by SPC is very appropriate.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1043 PM
CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
MVFR stratus edge near KDSM/KALO currently should be out of
those areas at 06z. The stratus will linger a bit longer at KOTM
before scattering. VFR conditions are then expected for the
remainder of the period. Light north to northeast winds to start
will increase with mixing Saturday morning will cause the wind
to be near to above 12 kts by late morning into the afternoon.
The wind will gradually turn from northeast to east/southeast
Saturday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Some area rivers and streams continue to rise due to recent
rains, however, all within our forecast area are expected to
crest below flood stage and no additional rain is forecast until
at least Saturday night.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Lee
AVIATION...Donavon
HYDROLOGY...05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
549 PM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog expected overnight into Saturday morning, with some areas
seeing dense fog with low visibility, impacting travel.
- Marginal risk for severe weather Sunday afternoon.
- Potential fire weather concerns across eastern Colorado Sunday
afternoon and south of Interstate 70 Monday afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 123 PM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Across the region this afternoon, skies remain cloudy as the
area remains dominated by a strong surface ridge. As of 100 PM
MT, temperatures are ranging only in the 40s on northeast winds.
Patchy fog is still prevalent in western locales.
The main weather concerns for the short term period are going
to focus on the threat for fog area-wide tonight into Saturday
morning, showers and storms tonight and this weekend. Storms on
Sunday have the potential to become severe. There is also a
chance for near critical to critical fire wx conditions in
portions of northeast Colorado.
For this afternoon into Saturday, guidance will begin to shift
the ridge north of the CWA to the east overnight into Saturday,
setting up a southerly moist flow during the day. First off
though will be the return of some potentially dense fog as the
ridge retreats east. A front over the central Rockies will work
east in tandem with a weak 500/700mb shortwave tonight, bringing
rw/trw chances to the area as well. The latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP
and NamNest) are showing scattered coverage into Saturday. This
scenario could be slowed some by the blanket of low cloud
inhibiting daytime warmth/instability.
A tight 1-2 degree T/Td spread is going to persist and
visibility guidance is fairly consistent showing increased
coverage of fog along the nose of the ridge in the area. This
will mix into the expected precip. There is the potential for a
DFA(Dense Fog Advisory) later tonight as some areas could see a
mile or less at times.
Going into Saturday, guidance keeps the fog potential through
the morning hours, but will give way to rw/trw chances (40-80%)
during this 24 hour period. A lee-side trough/front sets up
through the day, helping to funnel low level moisture into the
CWA. This system west will begin to move east through the day,
putting highest chances for precip in the east. A second
shortwave overnight will help to enhance precip chances area-
wide, with enough instability to mention thunder.
For Sunday-Sunday night, with a surface-850 trough in the west
and a blocking ridge east, a tight southerly gradient will
ensue, with the potential for gusts to reach at least 30-40 mph.
The system west will push east through the day, and with 850mb
temps ranging around +20c to +24c, above normal, dry conditions
are expected. This will put the focus for rw/trw in the east but
is dependent on the positioning of the front/trough. Severe
parameters are being met for a portion of the CWA on Sunday,
prompting a marginal risk for severe storms.
Depending on how fast the warmer and drier air works in from
the west sunday afternoon, western portions of Kit
Carson/Cheyenne counties in Colorado could be under near
critical/critical fire wx conditions. For now, areal coverage
does not met criteria for a Fire Wx Watch.
For temps, looking for a cool day on Saturday for highs with
upper 50s to low 60s expected, cooler in the east due to
expected cloud cover/rain. Going into Sunday, much warmer with
upper 70s to mid 80s expected. Overnight lows tonight will range
from the upper 30s into the mid 40s. Saturday night, mid 40s to
mid 50s and for Sunday night, a wide range is expected with low
40s east giving way to mid 50s east.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025
The latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF show a 500mb trough swinging
east through north central Plains Monday-Monday night. Front
swinging through as well will trigger a 20-30% chance for rw/trw
mainly north of I-70. Upper ridge build over the region for
Tuesday, providing drier and cooler conditions to the region.
For next Wednesday onward, guidance does split as to the timing
of the next system through the area, with the GFS a bit faster
for Wednesday-Thursday, while the ECMWF carries the system
through the region on Thursday. The passage of this system will
bring a round of rw/trw. The NBM currently favors the GFS w/
highest pops in the 40-60% range, tapering to 20-30% on
Thursday. Amplified 500mb ridge works east of the Rockies for
Friday. A lee side trough sets up late in the day, allowing for
increased low level moisture and thus rain chances.
For temps, highs on Monday will range around 70-80F. There is a
west to east gradient on this day, with warmest areas east of a
line from Oberlin, Kansas southwest to Tribune, Kansas. Going
into Tuesday, mid to upper 60s expected. 70s return for
Wednesday only to drop back to 60s and 70s for Thursday and then
a bounce back to the 70s for next Friday. Overnight lows for
Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday nights will be in the 40s, warmest
east. For Monday and Thursday nights, upper 30s west into the
lower 40s east. Some locales in northeast Colorado could see
wind chill readings into the upper 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025
..Poor Aviation Conditions..
IFR to VLIFR conditions associated with low ceilings (perhaps
accompanied by fog) are expected at both terminals this evening
into Saturday. Little, if any, improvement is expected through
the duration of the TAF period (Saturday afternoon). E winds at
8-13 knots this evening will veer to the SE Saturday morning and
increase to 12-18 knots Saturday afternoon.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...Vincent
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
836 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
- A High risk for dangerous rip currents will exist at area
beaches through Saturday.
- Turning hotter this weekend with near record highs for some
locations.
- Chance of rain (20-50%) Monday along with a risk for occasional
lightning strikes.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
A few light returns on the KMLB radar over the Atlantic waters
and along the coast this evening. A sprinkle or two may result
from this activity, however, it is mainly virga. Otherwise, expect
mostly dry conditions through tonight. Surface observations as of
8 PM show temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s with easterly
winds at 8-12 mph. A few low and high level clouds are streaming
across the area this evening, with skies forecast to become mostly
clear to party cloudy tonight. Easterly winds will prevail with
speeds generally under 10 mph. Some guidance has indicated the
potential for patchy ground fog to develop late tonight into early
Saturday morning. However, confidence is very low this will
occur, so have kept all mention of fog for tonight out of the
forecast. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal
for this time of year, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s
across the interior, and mid to upper 60s to even low 70s along
the coast. Forecast remains on track with only slight adjustments
to the rain chances and wind speeds through tomorrow.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Currently-Saturday... Local radar imagery shows dry weather over
east central Florida except for a few sprinkles over the east
central Florida Atlantic waters. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows
partly to mostly sunny skies. Broad high pressure (~1028mb) is
over the western Atlantic with the mid/upper level ridge axis over
the state of Florida. Temperatures are currently in the upper 70s
to mid 80s along the coast with the low 80s to low 90s inland to
the west of I-95. Dew points are in the the 60s to near 70
degrees. Winds are from the east- southeast at 10-15mph with gusts
to 20-25mph. Dry weather is expected overnight with low
temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s forecast inland to the west
of I-95 and the mid 60s to low 70s near the coast. Mostly dry
weather is expected on Saturday with partly to mostly sunny skies.
However, the HRRR and NSSL hi-resolution models indicate the
potential for isolated showers with a late sea breeze collision to
the west of the Orlando metro into Saturday afternoon and
evening. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast mainly to the
north of I-4 between 5PM and 9PM. East-southeast winds around
10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph are forecast into the afternoon.
Afternoon highs in the 80s are forecast near the coast with the
mid 80s to low 90s forecast inland.
Sunday-Monday... High pressure is expected to weaken and shift
south on Sunday. "cool" front is forecast to gradually move east-
southeast over east central Florida Sunday night and during the
day on Monday. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast Sunday
afternoon with a late sea breeze collision to the west of the
Orlando metro into Sunday afternoon and evening. Moisture
increases into Monday with a weak frontal boundary over the local
Atlantic waters with PWATs in the 1.50-1.70" range. Isolated to
scattered showers (PoPs ~20-50%) and isolated lightning storms
are forecast Monday morning near the coast and farther inland into
the afternoon. The main hazards with lightning storms on Monday
will be wind gusts up to 30-40mph and occasional lightning
strikes. East-southeast winds around 10-15mph with gusts to
20-25mph are forecast each afternoon. Above normal to near record
highs are forecast on Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 80s
near the coast and in the upper 80s to mid 90s are forecast
inland. Afternoon highs in the low 80s to low 90s are forecast on
Monday. Lows generally in the 60s to low 70s are forecast. There
is a Moderate HeatRisk on Sunday over the interior. This level of
heat can affect those sensitive to heat, especially without
adequate hydration or effective cooling.
Tuesday-Thursday... Onshore flow is expected to continue into mid
week next week with high pressure (~1024mb) to the northeast of
Florida over the western Atlantic. Isolated to scattered onshore
moving showers (PoPs ~20-40) are forecast near the coast Tuesday
morning before rain chances increase into the afternoon farther
inland with PWATs in the 1.30-1.50" range. Mostly dry weather is
forecast Wednesday and Thursday with PWATs reducing to 0.80-1.0"
range. Winds are expected to increase into each afternoon from
the east-southeast at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph with the
east coast sea breeze.Afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
are forecast near the coast with the mid 80s to low 90s inland on
Tuesday before increasing to the mid 80s to low 90s on Wednesday
and Thursday. Lows in the 60s to low 70s are forecast.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Currently-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are expected
with broad high pressure (~1028mb) over the western Atlantic.
Isolated onshore moving showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast tonight
into early Saturday. East-southeast winds at around 10-15kts are
expected to reduce to 6-12kts on Saturday. Seas to 2-4ft are
expected.
Sunday-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions are expected
through Monday. High pressure is expected to weaken and shift
south on Sunday before a "cool" front is forecast to gradually
move east-southeast over the east central Florida Atlantic waters
Sunday night and into the day on Monday. Isolated to scattered
(PoPs ~20-40%) generally west to southwest moving showers and
isolated lightning storms are forecast Sunday night and on Monday.
Isolated to widely scattered (PoPs~ 20-30%) generally onshore
moving showers and isolated lightning storms are forecast on
Tuesday. The main hazards with lightning storms will be wind gusts
to 30-40mph and occasional lightning strikes. East-southeast
winds at 8-12kts Sunday afternoon are forecast to increase from
the east on Monday and Tuesday at 10-15kts. Seas to 2-4ft are
expected with up to 5ft forecast offshore (20-60nm) Monday night
and Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 649 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Continued ESE winds at all terminals, strongest in the afternoon
hours Saturday (8-14 KT). Primarily VFR conds with spotty MVFR
CIGs near the coast. Low potential for some patchy ground fog
early in the morning, too low for mention in TAF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Very warm and mostly dry conditions are forecast through Sunday.
Minimum RH values will reach 35 to 40% across the interior each
afternoon. Minimum RH values are forecast between 45-55% closer to
the coast. East winds today and in the afternoons this weekend
will be enhanced by the sea breeze with speeds 12-15 mph and gusts
to 25 mph at times especially along the coast. Above normal
temperatures continue across the interior with highs in the upper
80s today and warming into the lower 90s Saturday and even a few
mid 90s on Sunday. Coastal communities will warm into the mid to
upper 80s this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers (~20-50%)
and isolated lightning storms are forecast on Monday. Although Red
Flag Warnings are not anticipated, such warm, dry and
breezy/gusty conditions will produce fire weather sensitive
conditions supporting rapid drying of fuels and spread of any new
or ongoing fires. Very Good smoke dispersion is forecast today
with Generally Good dispersions forecast Saturday and Sunday as
surface and transport winds decrease slightly. Burn bans are in
effect for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Volusia, and Brevard counties.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 66 85 66 88 / 0 0 10 10
MCO 65 91 65 93 / 0 0 10 10
MLB 71 84 68 86 / 0 0 10 10
VRB 70 84 67 86 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 66 91 67 93 / 0 10 10 20
SFB 64 90 65 93 / 0 0 10 20
ORL 66 91 67 93 / 0 0 10 10
FPR 69 84 66 86 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Heil
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
717 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain departs eastward this evening. Patchy dense fog is
possible across the central U.P. and Lake Superior shorelines.
- Rain and snowmelt will continue to lead to rises on area rivers
and possible minor flooding on typically flood-prone rivers,
especially early to mid next week during and after a strong low
pressure brings additional rainfall to the area.
- An active and warmer pattern is expected for early next week. Some
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible (15% chance), with
severe hail being the primary threat; severe winds are a less likely
secondary threat.
- There is a non-zero chance for flash flooding across our area
Monday into Tuesday morning, with the highest chance of occurrence
currently over the west (5% according to WPC).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
RAP analysis and GOES satellite imagery reveal the Upper Great Lakes
placed underneath the right entrance region of a departing upper
level jet streak with a weak sfc low reflected across southern lower
Michigan, stretching back into the OH River Valley. This has brought
soupy weather to the UP today with widespread light rain and patchy
dense fog across the north-central tier. Through the rest of tonight
and into Saturday morning, the aforementioned weak sfc low continues
east into the Lower Lakes, briefing tightening the area pressure
gradient and upticking northerly winds across the east-central. This
should help to clear out locally dense fog seen around the
Marquette/Alger area. Moist sfc conditions and lessening winds just
before daybreak may help redevelop fog across the east half.
Meanwhile, a building ridge noses into the western UP overnight,
introducing ~1030 mb high pressure which becomes solidly atop Lake
Superior by tomorrow morning. With it, a much drier airmass will
clear out skies and make way for a pleasant weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Drier conditions move in on Saturday as high pressure pushes through
the area this weekend. While warm air advection will begin Saturday,
antecedent cool air and weakening northerly flow at the surface will
keep temperatures a little bit on the cooler side of normal on
Saturday; expect highs to only get into the lower 50s in the
interior west and south central, even despite the mostly sunny skies
by the afternoon hours. Remnant lake effect cloud cover over the
north central and east, in addition to the northerly flow, is
expected to keep highs in the 40s along Lake Superior in the north
central and in most of the east. We could see RHs dip down to 30% in
the afternoon over the interior west. However, given the recent
rainfall and snowmelt, cool-ish temperatures, and light winds, fire
weather concerns are limited at this time over there. Going into
Saturday night, expect some high-level clouds to begin advecting
into the area as a low pressure begins to develop over the Northern
Plains. However, even with weak warm air advection continuing over
the area, with the mostly clear skies overhead, expect the
temperatures to tank, particularly over the interior east where
winds are expected to be lightest; we could see lows easily get into
the upper to mid 20s in the interior east. As for the west,
increasing southerly winds late look to keep temperatures warmer; in
the downslopes near Lake Superior along Gogebic and Ontonagon
counties, we could see low temperatures struggle to even get into
the upper 30s due to the warming created by the downslope winds.
Moving into Sunday, cloud cover moves over the rest of the area,
with rain showers potentially beginning over the western U.P. late
in the day. While we could see RHs drop down into the lower 30
percents again in the interior east, given the cloud cover overhead,
expect conditions at the surface to be a little more moist on Sunday
in comparison to Sunday for most of the area. As the low over the
Northern Plains lifts into northern Minnesota, model guidance
continues to have good convergence on the mid-level trough
evolution. In addition, the most recent GFS seems to be much more in-
line with the Euro in regards to the surface low, bringing it now
through western Lake Superior Monday evening. In response to the
more northerly track of the surface low, ensemble guidance has
responded by increasing the risk of severe weather across our area
late Monday into Tuesday morning as the warm sector of the low is
projected to move through the area. With MUCAPE increasing to 1 to 2
thousand J/kg, 0-6 km bulk shear around 30 to 50 knots (fueled by a
jet streak bringing PWATs above 1" into the area), we could see
severe hail move through the U.P. Monday evening and overnight.
While the severe threat will be lessened during the overnight hours,
given that we will be in the warm sector ahead of the low`s cold
front Monday night, some embedded energy aloft and strong shearing
could very well allow strong to severe thunderstorms to continue
across the region until the cold front moves through Tuesday
morning. With cloud cover remaining over us throughout the day
Monday via the warm front moving over us, no surface-based CAPE is
projected; thus, tornadoes are not expected for our area. However,
with convection being elevated in nature and strong shear keeping
mesocyclones going, we could see severe hail across our area , with
severe thunderstorm winds being a possibility too (albeit with a
lower possibility of occurrence); currently, the SPC shows the U.P
under a 15% chance for severe weather late Monday through Monday
night. With showers and storms continuing over the area Monday into
Tuesday morning, some training of convection may occur. Taking this
into account, and ensemble guidance showing PWATs increasing up to
around the 95th percentile modeled climatology, there is a non-zero
chance that we could see some flash flooding across the area late
Monday into Tuesday morning, particularly over the western U.P.
where guidance is highlighting higher QPF returns (WPC also shows a
5% chance for flash flooding for late Monday over the western U.P.).
As the cold front of the low pushes through on Tuesday morning,
expect a progressive end to the rainfall from the northwest to
southeast. We could see a quick transition over to some snowfall at
the end, but with temperatures still being above freezing, nothing
should stick. We could see some more river rises in response to the
rainfall into the middle of next week though, particularly if this
is a soaking rainfall event.
The active weather pattern continues into the latter half of next
week, with drier weather on Wednesday being replaced by more
rainfall over the area sometime late next week. Expect the
temperatures to be fairly seasonable from Wednesday onwards.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 717 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Overall trend in this forecast period will be toward VFR. To get
there though, KCMX will likely experience MVFR ceilings for the next
few hours and KSAW IFR ceilings overnight. MVFR visibility
restrictions will also be possible at these two sites, but
confidence is low at the moment. KIWD is expected to prevail VFR in
this period, although there is a low chance (<25% chance) for MVFR
ceilings in the next few hours. Winds will be mainly northerly, with
gusts to 20kts possible Saturday at KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Light winds of around 20 knots or less this afternoon increase to
northerly winds of 20 to 25 knots tonight over the eastern half of
the lake as a shot of cold air advection moves through the area.
Winds weaken back down to 20 knots or less again by Saturday as high
pressure moves through the lake this weekend. The winds remain light
until a low lifting from the Northern Plains approaches on Monday.
As it does so, some thunderstorms could move into the western lake
Monday afternoon, followed by the eastern half Monday evening; with
the track of the surface low now going further north through western
Lake Superior on Monday night, some of the storms could be strong to
severe ahead of the low`s passing Monday and Monday night, with
severe hail being the primary threat; severe winds are a secondary
threat and will be dependent on if they can make it to the surface.
If the winds can, the erratic and strong winds could make sailing
dangerous underneath the thunderstorms. Ahead of the low`s passage,
expect winds to increase from the southeast and south to 20 to 30
knots over the eastern half of the lake Monday afternoon and
evening. Behind the low`s passage, expect winds to pick up from the
northwest and north, potentially gusting up to gales of 35 knots
over the north central and eastern lake on Tuesday. As high pressure
moves back in on Wednesday, expect the winds to diminish back down
to 20 knots or less again by Wednesday morning, continuing
throughout the rest of the day.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...TAP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1003 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have continued
across the forecast area this evening as shortwave moves through
the region. HRRR and RAP models shows the stronger convection
moving east of the region as shortwave moves eastward over the
next few hours but more general showers continuing overnight and
into at least Saturday morning as the front slowly moves east and
gets close to the northern plateau by 12Z Saturday. Updated
forecast to keep higher pops east early and then move back in
across mainly northern sections later tonight. Patchy fog should
develop with any clearing late tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Key Messages:
1. Incoming line of storms will pose a threat of marginally severe
weather this evening.
2. Cold front passage occurs tomorrow, with more comfortable
conditions expected Sunday.
Discussion:
Isolated to scattered convection continues across eastern TN this
afternoon ahead of a weak shortwave that is currently moving east
across Tennessee and the northern parts of the Gulf states. This
shortwave is driving more widespread convection from middle TN
down into northern Alabama, but eventually all of this will push
into our CWA, with additional convection developing downstream
for widespread categorical rain chances through this evening. We
remain positioned in a general thunder area within the SPC
convective outlook and I think that is reasonable with respect to
severe storm chances this evening. Model forecast soundings do
show some +1,000 J/kg surface based instability into the evening
across much of our CWA. However structurally these soundings don`t
show much support for severe storms. Mid level lapse rates aren`t
great, downdraft CAPE doesn`t get to concerning levels (generally
below 400 J/kg), and shear is at best marginally supportive of
organized convection even as the shortwave moves in. That said, we
did have one storm that bowed out earlier this afternoon and
prompted a warning for damaging winds, and I wouldn`t be
surprised to see something similar occur this evening as that line
of storms moves in. The relative highest risk would be over the
southern plateau and southern TN valley where downdraft potential
will be maximized. Thermal profiles are a little more supportive
of damaging wind potential there, and even shows some potential
for small hail.
This shortwave and associated convection pushes east of the area
shortly after midnight tonight. A trailing cold front, driven by
a large scale trough over the Great Lakes, will push through the
southern Appalachian region during the morning hours
around/shortly after daybreak. I think rainfall will largely be
over with after the shortwave moves through shortly after midnight
but guidance is insistent on showers lingering into the mid-
morning hours tomorrow in northwest mid level flow. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler tomorrow but post-frontal dry air moving
in during the afternoon and evening will make for a very
comfortable end to a Spring day tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Key Messages:
1. Comfortable, post-frontal weather expected Sunday. A warming
trend is expected Monday through mid next week.
2. Mostly dry with possibility of diurnally driven convection on
Mon and Tue. More widespread rain chances expected Wed onward as
we wind up with a stalled/washed out frontal boundary somewhere
nearby.
Discussion:
Dry and very pleasant conditions are expected Sunday as we`re
behind the departing cold front and ridging has yet to build
overhead. That changes we move into next week however as guidance
shows high pressure building north from the Gulf coast into the
western Great Lakes region Sunday night into Monday. While the
ridge axis moves east towards the Appalachian chain with time,
this trend holds through the first half of next week, making for a
noteworthy warming trend Mon and Tue. Expect mostly dry
conditions those days, with low chances of diurnally driven
convection over mostly the higher terrain each afternoon.
For Wednesday through the end of the period, the overall consensus
of guidance is for troughing to top the ridge and move through the
Great Lakes region. The ridge doesn`t look like it completely
gives way so we likely will end up with some sort of stalled
frontal boundary somewhere between the Ohio and Tennessee valleys,
and westward into the Ozarks. The result will be increasing
chances for daily shower and thunderstorm activity. As of right
now there`s no significant weather concerns, outside of a low risk
for a strong thunderstorm on any day with convection potential
given enough CAPE to fuel growth. Even the stalled boundary
doesn`t look too concerning at the moment. The pattern doesn`t
really scream flooding potential to me. Will just continue to
monitor for now.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025
Scattered showers and storms continue across east TN this evening
as a front approaches the region. Will continue VCTS remarks for TYS
and CHA next hour then VCSH with showers continuing overnight.
Front doesn`t move through until tomorrow afternoon/evening, so
the stable and moist low levels should lead to widespread low
clouds tonight and some fog. Slow improvement to VFR Saturday
morning and afternoon especially at TRI.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 82 56 77 / 60 10 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 78 53 73 / 80 40 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 61 78 52 73 / 80 40 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 74 46 70 / 90 50 10 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TD
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION...TD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
152 PM PDT Fri Apr 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and cloudy with chances of rain and mountain snow through the
weekend. There is also a 10 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms
for the mountains westward Saturday afternoon. Gusty southwest to
west winds for the mountains and deserts this afternoon into
Saturday evening along and below the desert slopes of the mountains.
Gradual warming next week with highs near to slightly above
normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
At 1 PM, winds had increased mainly through the mountain passes.
Peak gusts so far today have been in the 50 to 60 mph range. Gusty
southwest to west winds will continue over the mountains and deserts
through Saturday night. Peak gusts of 45 to 55 mph, locally up to 60
mph will occur on the favored desert slopes and below the passes.
Winds will peak in strength in the afternoons and evenings. Gusty
winds may result in hazardous driving conditions for high profile
vehicles and areas of blowing dusty may inhibit visibility. Winds
will diminish into Sunday morning.
An upper level low pressure system will dig south and east across
Southern California Saturday. This will bring increased chances of
precipitation, with the highest chances in Orange County, Inland
Empire, and the San Bernardino County mountains. There is better
consensus on when the main band of precipitation will move through
the area on Saturday. Current runs of our local WRF and the HRRR are
indicating the band will arrive in the afternoon. Areas of drizzle
or light rain are possible ahead of the main organized band of
precipitation tonight and Saturday morning. Rainfall rates will be
mostly light to moderate. HREF chances of hourly rainfall rates
reaching or exceeding 0.25 inches per hour is 15 to 30 percent, with
the higher chances on the coastal mountain slopes. The cold core of
the low is expected to move overhead Saturday afternoon/evening. The
cold air combined with some weak instability will lead to a 10 to 15
percent chance of thunderstorms along and west of the mountains.
Rainfall amounts will generally be light and decrease from north to
south, isolated higher amounts are expected where thunderstorms
occur. Some areas in far southern San Diego County may see little to
no precipitation. Snow levels will fluctuate between 5000 to 6000 ft
with totals of 2 to 6 inches above 5500 ft, highest in the San
Gabriel mountains near Mt San Antonio. Snow accumulations on the
roadways may result in slippery driving conditions, so use caution
if you are heading up to the mountains this weekend!
Weak troughing lingers across the region Sunday and Monday
maintaining cool weather with a deep marine layer. Highs remain
around 10 to 20 degrees below normal inland on Sunday, then around 3
to 5 degrees below normal on Monday. Ensembles are in good agreement
with an upper ridge trying to nudge in from the west on Tuesday for
more significant warming and highs returning to a couple degrees
above normal, then another weak wave developing and sweeping
southeasterly across the Western US around Wednesday and Thursday
which will moderate temperatures, then another ridge trying to build
in on Friday for minor warming. The marine layer will become more
shallow Tuesday and Wednesday with low clouds confined to the
coastal areas, then deepen again on Thursday - right in time for May
Gray to begin.
&&
.AVIATION...
252015Z....Coasts/Valleys/Coastal Mountain Slopes...Satellite shows
SCT-BKN clouds with bases 4000-6000ft MSL continue for all locations
west of the mountains. A marine layer with similar bases/tops as
observed this morning (3000-4000ft MSL) increase after 02z Saturday
though may be somewhat patchy in the evening, with a more uniform
marine layer expected by about 09z Saturday. Rainfall chances
increase by 06z, increasing through Saturday afternoon and evening.
Rainfall amounts generally expected to be light. Bases will fall to
2000-2500ft MSL with any rain shower, and a thunderstorm threat will
exist Saturday afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic winds along
with heavy rainfall that may lead to reduced visibility in any storm.
Mountains/deserts...West winds increase through this afternoon,
gusting 35-45 kts, locally 50 kts, over ridges, through passes and
desert slopes into this evening. Strong up/downdrafts are likely,
with isolated LLWS and rotors in lee of mountains, such as vcnty
KPSP. Rain chances develop as early as 06z Saturday, increasing into
the afternoon and evening while gusty winds develop for similar
locations with similar speeds as Friday. Heaviest rain possible in
the mountains, and a thunderstorm threat will exist in the afternoon
and evening. Gusty and erratic winds along with heavy rainfall that
may lead to reduced visibility in any storm.
&&
.MARINE...
Slight chance for thunderstorms over the waters Saturday afternoon
and evening which may bring heavy rainfall and reduced visibility,
as well as gusty and erratic winds and lightning. Otherwise, no
hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Elevated surf of 3 to 6 feet with occasional sets to 7 feet Saturday
through Tuesday, peaking Sunday night and Monday. Strong rip
currents expected. Slight chance for thunderstorms at the beaches
Saturday afternoon and evening, with lightning and gusty winds
possible with any storm.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 11 PM PDT Saturday for San
Bernardino County Mountains.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for Apple and Lucerne
Valleys-San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass near
Banning.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Zuber