Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/25/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
617 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 613 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
Minimal changes needed to the short term forecast. PoPs were
decreased this evening and overnight to account for trends, as
only a few spotty showers/storms are ongoing and much of the
southern counties are devoid of low-level clouds.
12
Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
This afternoon.
A general southwest flow aloft prevails over the area this
afternoon with the most well-defined shortwave over South
Mississippi while some slightly drier air around 700 mb is
depicted moving east over our Southeast Counties early this
afternoon per RAP 13 km analysis data. The lower-levels remain
quite moist and mostly sunny skies across much of our southern
counties is resulting in surface temperatures reaching into the
lower 80s at this writing. A weak stationary front remains draped
to our northeast, extending from Northeast Arkansas east across
the Southern Ohio River Valley Region and southeast across the
Carolinas.
Quieter conditions have prevailed across much of the forecast
area so far early this afternoon with shower activity primarily
confined to portions of the north and far west, but showers and
some thunderstorms are forecast to develop across much of the area
over the next few hours with best chances north and west. Winds
will be out of the south to southeast at 4-8 mph. High
temperatures will range from the upper 70s north and northeast to
readings in the mid 80s generally along and south of the U.S.
Highway 80 corridor.
Tonight.
Longwave troughing to our west will move closer to the forecast
area overnight while the diffuse stationary front to our northeast
becomes even less defined with time. A few mid-level disturbances
will move over the western and northern counties overnight as a
warm and moist airmass remains in place across the area..
Look for mostly cloudy skies overnight with scattered (35-55%)
showers and isolated (20-40%) thunderstorms remaining in the
forecast overnight with the better potential generally along and
northwest of the Interstate 20 corridor. Winds will be from the
southeast at 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range from around 60
northeast and far east to readings in the mid 60s southwest and
far west.
Friday.
The longwave trough will move over the area on Friday while a
surface cold front advances southeast across the Central Plains
and Midwest, extending from the Central Ohio River Valley
southwest into Arkansas by late in the afternoon.
Ahead of the cold front, expect shower and thunderstorm activity
to be most likely (55-75%) across the northwest half of the
forecast area while more isolated (25-45%) activity is forecast
across much of the central counties southeast to the Interstate 85
corridor where a few (15-25%) showers and storms will be
possible. Winds will be from the south to southwest at 5-10 mph.
High temperatures will range from the upper 70s northwest and in
the higher elevations east to readings in the upper 80s far
southeast.
05
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
Models continue to hint at a drier solutions Saturday night into
Sunday as the boundary actually moves into the southern third of
the area. We will still see a shortwave slide through on Sunday,
but models are hinting that it will be further west. Will
continue to watch and see if the short range models tomorrow
continue with this trend or begin to move back to the east. This
front finally washes out by Monday and Tuesday, with the next
system approaching the area Wednesday. Strength of the ridge to
our east will determine how far south and east the front makes it
before stalling, so PoP chances will be in flux until the first of
the next week.
16
Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
Beginning Friday night and into Saturday morning, the 500mb trough
axis will move east, with upper level winds becoming westerly to
northwesterly. At the same time, a surface front will dip
southward into the area as a 1030mb ridge over Lake Michigan sends
cooler and drier air toward the Deep South. Diurnally-driven
showers and storms are expected to develop as the front slowly
moves southward toward the I-85 corridor. These storms will be
very summer-like with potential for gusty winds and heavy
downpours with sufficient instability, moisture, and available
DCAPE through Saturday afternoon. Storms will decrease in coverage
quickly after sunset as the front becomes stalled across southern
Alabama. In the meantime, another shortwave impulse is expected to
move in from the northwest by Sunday within westerly flow at
500mb. Synoptic lift from the shortwave along with the lingering
stalled surface front will provide a focus for additional shower
and storm formation by Sunday afternoon. This by no means is a
classic northwest flow/MCS scenario, but something to watch to
determine if more widespread storms are able to form to our
northwest. If that occurs, overall rain chances may end up
increasing during the day on Sunday. Current forecast trends are
indicating that highest rain chances will exist across our
southwest counties, with lower chances to the northeast with drier
air still remaining present.
Overall ridging across the atmospheric profile is expected by
Monday and Tuesday as strong southerly flow at the surface
returns. We`ll warm back into the mid and upper 80s both days with
very low overall rain chances. Global guidance is advertising a
front trying to push in our direction by Wednesday and Thursday of
next week, but the ridge in place will likely prove too strong to
allow the front to settle far enough south. As of the current
forecast, scattered PoPs currently exist generally along and NW of
the I-59 corridor Wednesday afternoon. Those may start trending
downward over the next couple of days if the stronger ridge
solution in the guidance pans out.
56/GDG
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
Partial cloud cover and light winds are expected through the
evening and overnight. Low clouds may return tomorrow morning,
dropping sites to MVFR ceilings. At this time, fog doesn`t look
like a major concern. Tomorrow afternoon will feature another
chance for thunderstorm activity around the terminals.
12
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The late spring/early summer-like pattern will continue through
the remainder of the week with chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon each day. RH values
drop into the 35 to 40 percent range in the southeastern portions
of Central Alabama at times, but remain above 40 percent
elsewhere. Winds will generally remain in the 5-10 MPH range with
occasional gusts to 15 MPH at times.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 60 81 59 83 / 50 70 40 40
Anniston 61 82 61 82 / 40 60 30 40
Birmingham 63 81 63 83 / 40 60 30 40
Tuscaloosa 64 81 63 85 / 40 60 20 40
Calera 62 81 63 83 / 30 50 20 40
Auburn 62 83 63 83 / 30 30 20 30
Montgomery 62 86 63 87 / 10 30 20 20
Troy 61 87 62 87 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
548 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe threat winding down this evening.
- Cooler tonight through Friday with light rain showers/drizzle.
- Critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon for the
eastern plains.
- Mild and dry next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 547 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Severe storm threat is diminishing as storms continue to push
east into a slightly more stable and capped environment on the
eastern plains. Still a low end threat for the next hour or so
(mainly into Lincoln County) but radar is starting to show these
trends already underway. There has been some redevelopment back
into the I-25 Corridor, but additional rounds that do develop will
be in an environment where most instability has been used up.
Still unsettled through the evening with scattered showers, but
thunderstorm coverage and intensity is on the wane.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Southwest flow aloft will prevail while an east-southeast low
level flow advects moisture into eastern Colorado. This has
resulted in mostly cloudy skies and cool temperatures over most of
the eastern plains with a stable airmass in place. The increase
in moisture made it to the urban corridor with dew points in the
40s. Skies were mostly sunny this morning allowing temperatures to
reach the mid 60s to lower 70s. RAP model continues to show
MLCAPE of 1000-1500 (J/kg) across the urban corridor and nearby
plains. A cyclone has formed over the south part of the Denver
area. Along this convergent boundary we are seeing towering
cumulus and should see storms form along it by mid afternoon.
Additional storm development is expected over the northern urban
corridor mid to late afternoon. Large hail, up to golfball size
will be the main threat. Isolated wind gusts to 60 mph and a brief
tornado will also be possible. Storms will weaken as they head
into a less unstable airmass over the eastern plains.
The threat for severe storms will end early to mid evening as the
airmass stabilizes. However the chance for showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the evening, mainly over
northern Colorado behind a cold front pushing south into the area.
Showers and storms end by midnight as the colder air behind the
front stabilizes the airmass. Moisture and colder air moving into
northeast Colorado will saturate the airmass leading to low
clouds, fog, and drizzle after midnight and into Friday morning.
Easterly low level flow will keep low clouds with areas of fog
and drizzle going for much of Friday morning, and perhaps into the
afternoon in and near the foothills due to upslope flow. Highs
will be chilly with upper 40s to lower 50s across northeast
Colorado. This will stabilize the airmass over the foothills and
eastward. The mountains become slightly unstable with MLCAPE
climbing to 500 (J/kg). This is expected to lead to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains. As the
convective tracks eastward and encounters the cool and stable
airmass, the showers and storms are expected to dissipate.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Broad but relatively weak southwesterly flow aloft will
overspread the region on Saturday ahead of a closed upper low
moving into California, entraining enough mid-level moisture in
the afternoon to support isolated to scattered afternoon
showers/thunderstorms, generally favoring the higher terrain. At
the surface, healthy southerly winds will promote ample warm
advection, returning temperatures to above normal values region-
wide.
As the low lifts northeast through the Great Basin, southwest
flow along its leading edge will increase into Sunday, helping to
push highs potentially into the 80`s for the lower elevations,
with limited change for the high country. Precipitation chances
will be buffered substantially under much drier low-levels.
There`s growing confidence in critical fire weather conditions
across a broad portion of the forecast area for Sunday afternoon,
particularly the southern half where humidity will be lowest.
By Monday, the primary low is slated to transition into more of
an open wave, with a secondary low shearing off the southern tip
of the trough. It`s a messy pattern which inherently carries
greater uncertainty as far as how things play out through the
week, but for Monday we`ll at least be looking at considerably
cooler temperatures following a frontal passage and greater
afternoon precipitation potential, most pronounced in the
mountains. Our southern plains could hold onto some fire weather
concerns too depending on the frontal timing.
Details are fuzzier Tuesday onwards, with general west to
northwest flow prevailing aloft and potentially punctuated by a
few shortwaves and opportunities for spring-like convection most
afternoons, albeit there are no strong signals.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/...
Issued at 547 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025
The main impacts from thunderstorms has passed, but still can`t
rule out an isolated thunderstorm and VRB winds at/near the Denver
area airports til 02Z-03Z. Prob30 should suffice for now.
Cold front then pushes south through across the TAF sites through
04Z, partially disrupted by current convective outflows. Clouds
will lower with more showers possible behind the front. Eventually
that turns more stratiform by 06Z with IFR and LIFR ceilings and
visibilities expected (90-100% confidence). Visibility will
likely be reduced to 1-3SM due to the low clouds and drizzle.
Dense fog will also be possible 10Z-15Z with visibility as low as
1/4SM (30-40% chance). IFR/LIFR should last through at least
17Z-18Z Friday before gradual improvement into the afternoon, but
still MVFR prevailing all day due to lower ceilings.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Rodriguez
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
631 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms will exit the region this evening.
- Periodic daily storm chances will continue into the middle of
next week. Some severe weather is expected over the next 7 days.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening through Friday Night/
Showers and thunderstorms continue to push south and east of the
area this evening with the severe threat coming to an end. The
atmosphere behind this complex of storms is fairly worked over as
indicated by the latest HRRR analysis showing a void of
instability in the post convective environment. Despite some sun
across the western half of the CWA, it`ll take some time for the
wind/moisture fields to recover. This suggests that we won`t see a
repeat of the last few nights and should generally remain quiet
for the rest of the nighttime hours. We will be watching some
convection that has developed across the TX Panhandle as this
activity will likely spread into southwest Oklahoma, then possibly into
our northwest counties closer to sunrise. We`ll keep PoPs at 40%
or less for this activity across our northwest, but unlike the
last few days, these storms would be moving into a much less
favorable environment. Wet ground, light winds, and clearing skies
tonight should support at least some patchy fog through the
overnight hours.
Otherwise, we`ll have to see what remnant boundaries linger
tomorrow as these could serve to support isolated thunderstorm
development through the afternoon. Weak mid level ridging should
work against more widespread coverage of thunderstorms so we`ll
keep PoPs at 20%. Skies should eventually become mostly sunny with
temperatures in the mid/upper 80s. Another upstream disturbance
spreading out of the Desert Southwest should help ignite another
round of showers and thunderstorms across West Texas tomorrow
evening. This activity may eventually spread into our western
counties late Friday night accompanied by an additional threat for
a few strong storms.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025/
Update:
Overall: not much has changed in terms of messaging for the long
term forecast. We still expect waning convection Friday night
with the potential for another MCS moving in from our northwest
Saturday morning, before a lull in precipitation on Sunday. Rain
chances will increase Monday onward as an upper level trough
begins to swing east and send shortwaves over the region. Tuesday
will be our next day to watch the sky as a dryline encroaches from
the west and a front in Oklahoma moves south towards the Red
River. With North and Central Texas being within the favorable
warm sector, enough instability and shear will be present for
severe weather.
Afternoon highs will remain near to slightly above normal for this
time of year with daily highs in the 70s and/or 80s through the
middle of next week. Overnights will remain warm due to cloud
cover and humidity, with temperatures bottoming out mainly in the
60s.
Prater
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
With showers and thunderstorms departing the area this evening,
VFR will prevail in its wake for much of the late evening hours.
Winds are slowly recovering to a more southeasterly direction and
this will generally prevail overnight at around 5 kt. The main
concern for tonight will be potential fog development with
clearing skies, light winds, and ample ground moisture. We`ve
trended the TAFs to more of a reduction in vis as opposed to
widespread ceilings, although if cigs do occur, they`re likely to
be IFR/LIFR. For now, we`ll have 3SM BR with SCT003 prevailing for
much of the late overnight and early morning indicative of fog
potential. Otherwise, we`ll also be watching any remnant
convection approaching from the northwest, although this activity
should be considerably weaker than the last few mornings. VFR
should prevail for much of the day on Friday.
Dunn
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 85 67 83 67 / 20 20 40 40 20
Waco 66 85 65 86 66 / 5 20 5 10 10
Paris 62 81 66 80 64 / 10 20 20 60 20
Denton 61 84 63 82 63 / 30 20 50 50 20
McKinney 63 83 65 81 65 / 20 30 30 50 20
Dallas 66 86 67 83 67 / 10 20 30 40 20
Terrell 64 83 65 83 64 / 5 20 20 40 10
Corsicana 64 85 67 85 67 / 20 20 5 20 10
Temple 66 87 64 86 65 / 20 20 5 10 5
Mineral Wells 63 87 63 83 63 / 10 20 40 40 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
941 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm temperatures through the work week followed by cooler weather
this weekend.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon through Friday
night with the best chances Friday and Friday evening.
- Pleasant Spring Weekend ahead.
- More active pattern from Tuesday through Thursday, with
severe weather potential on Tuesday.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Only modest adjustments required with this evening`s update. Though
coverage of convection has waned with sunset as expected, some very
isolated activity does continue and cannot be completely ruled out
during the night. Will maintain a 15 pop at least, with chances
increasing toward daybreak as showers arrive ahead of an approaching
broad area of low pressure. Showers should become fairly widespread
Friday with scattered to perhaps numerous thunderstorms as the
system moves into the area later in the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
THIS AFTERNOON
Temperatures have warmed to around 80 across the region this
afternoon with dew points steadily rising into the 50s. Some dew
points in the low 60s have been noted across our far south.
Satellite imagery shows cumulus breaking out across portions of our
area especially south of Indianapolis. Cumulus development appears
to be initiating first in areas of differential heating, with the
forested areas of Monroe and Brown Counties being a particular focal
point.
ACARS soundings out of IND show a deeply mixed but largely dry
boundary layer as of 18z. Additionally, lapse rates are rather poor
within the free atmosphere. The lower levels should moisten with
time as southerly winds bring higher dew points northward.
Short-term guidance shows continued heating and moistening leading
to modest destabilization as the afternoon progresses. CAPE values
between 1000 and 1500 J/Kg are possible, especially from
Indianapolis southward where the richer moisture resides. Showers
and some thunderstorms are expected by the evening. Areas where the
cumulus field currently appears agitated (Monroe and Brown Counties)
may be the first to see convective initiation within the next few
hours.
As for severe potential, today`s threat appears very low mainly due
to limited shear through the effective cloud layer. Guidance is
showing values around 20kt bulk shear which may be enough to lead to
some multicell clusters. Storms should be short-lived as they rain
into themselves in the low-shear environment. Small hail and an
isolated downburst with strong sub-severe wind gusts is possible in
the strongest storms.
OVERNIGHT
Storm activity should die down overnight as diurnal heating is lost.
A few isolated showers may persist as moisture advection continues
through the night. Low-level clouds likewise continue through the
night and may even thicken some as moisture increases. This should
keep lows from dropping much, with values in the high 50s to low 60s
expected.
FRIDAY
The threat for showers and thunderstorms returns on Friday as an
upstream mid-level wave approaches from the west and passes just to
our north. The large-scale setup is rather messy with multiple
vorticity features shown in various models, likely originating from
upstream convective activity. As such, convective coverage and
timing on Friday is a bit uncertain. However, it does appear the the
first half of the day is more likely as most guidance has a surface
cold front sweeping through by 00z.
Severe potential on Friday also seems low but not quite as low as
today. CAPE Profiles are a bit taller and thicker with an overall
more moist column. However, shear remains on the low side (30kt at
most) and lapse rates remain poor (6-6.5 C/Km). Our primary threats
would be isolated strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail
within the strongest updrafts. Given the moist column, heavy rain is
possible at times which could lead to localized flash flooding if
storm training occurs.
Things quiet down once the cold front passes through. Low stratus
may persist in the post-front environment as trajectories originate
off of Lake Michigan which should keep the boundary layer moist.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Friday Night through Monday -
Overall, a pleasant spring weekend appears in store for Indiana.
Rain chances will linger for a few hours on Friday evening as the
last bits of the surface low pressure and associated cold front
exits Indiana during the evening hours. Overnight, high pressure
from the northern plains will continue to settle across the Ohio
Valley. Forecast soundings late Friday night and into Saturday show
a dry column and HRRR suggests precipitation exiting the forecast
area by 05Z. Thus will keep low chance pops in play during the
evening hours, but trend toward a dry forecast overnight.
Strong ridging aloft over the region will be the rule through the
weekend and into Monday. This ridge is expected to provide continued
subsidence along with an associated large surface high pressure
system that will slowly pass across the state through Monday.
Forecast soundings show mid level inversions along with very high
convective temperatures, thus CU will not be expected, and we will
look for mostly clear skies with only some passing CI through
Monday. As the high slowly drifts east by Monday, southerly flow is
expected to return. This will lead to the typical slowly warming
temperatures each day as the high passes to the east.
Tuesday through Thursday -
Active weather is set to arrive for the middle of next week. Models
show the arrival of SW flow aloft as the previously mentioned upper
ridge drifts east of Indiana. This will set up moist, tropical flow
aloft streaming across the southern plains and into the Ohio Valley.
This quick, moist flow aloft will be favorable for shower and storm
development, particularly on Tuesday. Models on Tuesday show a wave
of energy within the flow aloft streaming toward Indiana. Meanwhile
within the lower levels, a quick, warm and moist flow will also be
in place over Indiana as a low pressure over the Great Lakes and an
associated trailing cold front approaches from IA. This will be a
favorable set-up for storms. Early forecast soundings for Tuesday
afternoon suggest CAPE over 1800 J/KG. Thus high confidence for rain
on Tuesday afternoon and we will continue to monitor for severe
weather potential.
Rain chances are expected to continue as we go through the middle
part of the work week. Aloft a broad upper trough is expected to
remain in place over the plains with continued southwest flow aloft.
More forcing dynamics are show to be passing across Central Indiana
during Wednesday and Thursday. Furthermore, a favorable set-up for
rain and storms will remain in place with the lower levels as models
show the tail of the previously mentioned cold front stalled and
elongated over Central Indiana in a east to west fashion. Given
these ingredients, confidence is high for rain during the middle of
next week and expect high chance to likely pops to be used.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 726 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Impacts:
- Localized MVFR ceilings possible near daybreak Friday in showers
- Thunderstorms possible again Friday, but too low probability for
explicit mention at this time
Discussion:
As broad low pressure moves into and through the area tonight into
Friday, increasingly widespread cloud cover is expected, along with
showers and perhaps scattered thunderstorms, particularly Friday
morning into the afternoon hours. Impact of thunder at any one
location this far out is far too uncertain for explicit mention in
the TAF.
Increasing low level moisture will allow ceilings to drop near or
just after daybreak Friday as the showers move in, but at this point
think MVFR ceilings will be transient at most sites but perhaps BMG,
where guidance is a bit more aggressive.
Precipitation threat will come to an end very late in the period as
the cold front passes through the area, though trapped low level
moisture may produce more widespread lower ceilings in the wake of
the front, along with a few gusty winds at or beyond the end of the
period.
Winds will be generally southerly around 10KT or less overnight,
becoming more southwesterly with time and then northwesterly in the
wake of the front tomorrow evening.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Nield
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Nield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
911 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast tonight through
Friday night. Severe storms are not expected, although some
locations could see localized ponding or minor flooding issues in
heavier downpours.
* A cold front will bring storms to the region Tuesday evening and
night. Some strong to severe storms will be possible.
* Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday and
Thursday as Tuesday`s cold front gets hung up over the area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Warm and humid air mass is in place across the Ohio Valley, and by
now we have plenty of convectively-induced mesoscale boundaries, but
instability is fading fast. Last remaining convection extends from
near Fort Knox westward almost to Tell City, but would expect that
to dissipate over the next hour or two.
After a break of a few hours, the next upper impulse is expected to
initiate another round of precip just before daybreak on Friday.
Precip chances for the overnight period (until 6 AM local time)
should be low enough to clean up the wording in the ZFP, but the
timing in the hi-res products won`t change much.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Quasi-stationary boundary has lifted north of OH River allowing for
warm, moist air to advect into the region. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms have begun to pop up on radar as we reach our diurnal
maximum, with KY Mesonet showing temperatures in the upper 70s and
low 80s and dew points in the low 60s. Ample instability is in place
with SPC Meso showing up to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE, but any organized
severe convection isn`t expected as we`re devoid of any strong
dynamics and lack sufficient shear. In fact, RAP guidance suggests a
0-6km mean wind of 10kt out of the SW, so expect localized heavy
downpours from relatively slow moving cells. As a result, some
nuisance ponding and localized flooding could be an issue.
As we lose our diurnal instability, expect showers and storms to
come to an end later this evening before PoPs increase again Friday
morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect showers and
possible embedded thunder throughout the day Friday. Again, with a
lack of strong shear, storms should remain sub-severe with the main
threat being localized heavy rainfall and lightning. Also not
expecting any major flood issues as total QPF through Saturday
morning amounts to roughly 0.50 to just over an inch of accumulated
rainfall.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
The cold front will cross the region Friday night and will be
positioned just east of central Kentucky by the time the sun comes
up on Saturday. Deep layer shear and instability will be weak, and
sounding progs suggest the convection may become slightly elevated.
These factors plus a very wet column indicate severe storms are
unlikely, but some locally heavy downpours will be possible. Given
the expected slow storm motion, it`s possible there could be a few
hydro issues in spots that collect water easily, but general
flooding or a return to river flooding is not expected.
Showers will end from west to east Saturday morning as the cold
front pulls away. Canadian high pressure advancing from the Great
Lakes to the mid-Atlantic will then keep us mostly dry through
Monday, other than perhaps an isolated diurnal shower Monday
afternoon in return flow behind the departing high. We`ll have our
coolest temperatures Saturday night when the high is over Lower
Michigan, with readings falling well into the 40s. A persistent east
breeze will prevent prevent perfect radiational cooling conditions,
but ensemble data are showing about a 5-10% chance of the northern
Bluegrass and sheltered eastern valleys briefly dipping into the
upper 30s by dawn Sunday.
The next weather-maker of concern will be a cold front that
approaches from the northwest Tuesday and moves through southern
Indiana and central Kentucky Tuesday night. The front moving into a
moist, unstable, strongly sheared atmosphere is expected to generate
a band of storms from Oklahoma to Ohio Tuesday afternoon. This
activity will slide ESE ahead of the front into the middle Ohio
Valley Tuesday night. The storms are more likely to be severe to our
northwest where they initiate, and should be in a slowly weakening
state as instability decreases diurnally and the convection moves
farther away from the better upper support. Still, definitely
something to keep an eye on with severe storms a possibility,
especially in southern Indiana and north central Kentucky if the
current timing holds.
The front may get hung up in the vicinity on Wednesday and Thursday
for continued chances of showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable
water anomalies and EC EFI QPF are indicating seasonable values, so
while occasional heavy rain will certainly be a possibility in any
thunderstorm, right now a repeat of the extended areawide torrential
rains we saw in February and earlier this month is not expected.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 801 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025
Showers and a few thunderstorms near SDF and just north of LEX are
already weakening and should dissipate shortly after sunset with the
loss of heating. Initialized all terminals without any lingering
precip, with medium confidence at SDF and high confidence at the
other sites. Expect mainly a mid-level cig for most of the overnight
period, with light winds generally out of the south, save for a
convectively induced easterly initialization at SDF.
Just before sunrise on Friday another wave will bring showers,
embedded thunder, and low ceilings. Look for MVFR vis and cigs below
2000 feet by late morning, with some potential for IFR cigs
especially at BWG and HNB. Brief IFR vis possible in any of the
heavier rain.
Look for improvement in cig/vis in the late afternoon once the first
impulse passes, but renewed chances for showers or storms remain in
play into the SDF planning period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAS
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...RAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
819 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 241 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
- Unsettled weather through the remainder of the week and into
the weekend, with daily thunderstorm chances across the
region.
- Limited severe weather potential will last through the weekend
with locally heavy rainfall potential Thursday/Friday.
- More defined low pressure system moves into the Plains with
additional thunderstorm chances early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 818 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
A cluster of severe storms over NW OK, one of which a supercell
that has produced very large hail and tornadoes, is forecast to
evolve by the latest HRRR into a small MCS tracking southeast
overnight into northeast Oklahoma. Instability is weaker across
eastern Oklahoma, and indeed the HRRR has been consistent with the
signal that any MCS that gets going is expected to be on a
weakening trend as it treks into the forecast area. Nevertheless,
PoPs/thunder/severe probs have been updated to show a limited
severe risk with locally damaging wind the main threat.
Lacy
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
This morning`s MCS that pushed across southern/central/southeast
OK continues to decay, but is still producing scattered showers
and a few rumbles of thunder across eastern OK early this
afternoon. Hi-res, short-range models continue to indicate some
destabilization along residual outflow boundaries later this
afternoon and into this evening, mainly across northeast OK and
northwest AR, but the thick cloud cover across the region has
really complicated how much destabilization will actually occur.
Will maintain low-moderate (20-40%) PoPs through the early
evening hours.
Forecast uncertainty continues through the late evening and
overnight hours tonight with some significant differences in hi-
res and global model data. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast
to move across KS late tonight. It`s exact orientation and track
as well as overall atmospheric stability will determine rainfall
chances through the remainder of the short term period. A surface
cold front will slowly push southward and into far northern OK by
daybreak Friday. ECMWF and the NAM 3km solutions seem to be the
outliers in the global models, bringing in a northwest-to-
southeast advancing MCS-type event, originating near the frontal
boundary in KS, across eastern OK overnight tonight. With high
uncertainty, went ahead and ran with NBM PoPs for now, but these
PoPs will likely need to be adjusted through the evening and
night. Otherwise, a mostly cloudy night is in store, with
overnight lows generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s and light
southerly winds.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
A frontal boundary is forecast to move into the forecast area from
the northwest mid-late morning Friday. The front will likely slow
down and perhaps stall across southeast OK by Friday evening, then
diffusing/eroding during the daytime Saturday. Despite mid-level
ridging build overhead, the presence of the surface front and
subtle perturbations in the ridge will keep shower and
thunderstorms chances in the forecast through at least Saturday.
Severe storm chances will be highly limited, if at all, and mostly
confined near the front due to weak-modest shear availability.
A wet pattern will likely continue through the daytime on Sunday
as modest to strong warm air advection occurs as a warm front
pushes through the forecast area. Weak flow aloft will continue to
greatly limit severe storm potential.
Stronger upper-level southwest flow remains on track to occur
during the early-mid part of next week as a more potent upper-
level low moves from the Great Basin region and over the Plains
Monday/Tuesday. This storm system will be accompanied by another
surface frontal system that will be moving into the area Tuesday
into Wednesday. Severe thunderstorm chances will be increasing
ahead of the front possibly as early as Monday night, continuing
into Tuesday and into Wednesday as the front is forecast to stall
across the forecast area. The main forcing still looks to remain
north of the TSA CWA, where the upper-level low will track, but
storms ahead and along the cold front will be capable of producing
strong to severe storms. More details to come later. The
unsettled weather is expected to resume into next Thursday as
well.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of E OK and NW AR
this evening. During the overnight period, a complex of
thunderstorms may move into the region and impact E OK sites.
Confidence in this scenario and magnitude of impacts remains low,
but did include PROB30 groups for E OK sites. Low clouds and MVFR
to IFR cigs are likely to develop areawide by late tonight into
tomorrow morning. Additionally, latest guidance continues to
suggest potential for fog development and reduced vsbys during the
early morning hours, especially for NW AR sites. This potential
will need to be monitored for the next TAF issuance. Flight
categories are forecast to increase back to VFR areawide by
tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 60 79 59 72 / 40 60 40 60
FSM 63 84 65 79 / 40 50 30 60
MLC 61 81 62 77 / 40 50 50 80
BVO 58 79 55 70 / 60 60 40 50
FYV 59 81 58 75 / 40 60 30 50
BYV 60 79 59 70 / 30 60 20 40
MKO 60 78 60 73 / 30 60 40 70
MIO 60 77 57 70 / 50 70 20 40
F10 60 78 61 72 / 40 60 50 80
HHW 61 80 64 78 / 40 30 30 70
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43