Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/24/25
See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Weak upper level ridging currently over the region will gradually
get pushed east late tonight into Thursday morning as shortwave
energy tracks across western South Dakota northeastward over North
Dakota. A more southwesterly flow will then be in place Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night, with periods of weak energy riding up
and across the CWA.
At the surface, high pressure currently extends from south central
Canada to southern South Dakota. The high will get pushed back to
the northeast tonight as low pressure slides across the central
Rockies. A boundary will set up south of the region, but rain shower
activity will be aided by the upper level shortwave energy and looks
to reach as far north as southern North Dakota late tonight through
the day Thursday. CAMs are still a bit uncertain where the exact
focus for higher precipitation amounts will be, but the highest
current probabilities (30 to 40 percent) of one quarter inch or more
are across portions of central South Dakota and across east central
South Dakota. Due to cooler air in place, instability is minimal at
best, so not anticipating any thunderstorm activity. The
precipitation looks to come to an end Thursday evening as high
pressure drops back in over the Northern and Central Plains.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s. High
temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Lows
Thursday night will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
The focus in this period will revolve around a well organized storm
system that is progged to track through the region the second half
of the weekend into early next week. Our forecast area stands to
pick up on some decent rainfall amounts and perhaps the first bouts
of severe weather for the spring season. Prior to that, this period
will begin relatively tranquil as sfc high pressure resides to the
north and northeast of the area on Friday. This will give our area a
dry and mild day overall with northerly low level flow keeping 850mb
temperatures in the single digits above zero C and daytime highs
right around normal in the low to mid 60s. High pressure shifts east
and we pick up on return flow out of the south Friday night through
Saturday. The pressure gradient tightens on Saturday leading to
gusty southerly winds of 30-40 mph. Upper ridging builds across the
Northern Plains leading to a warmer air mass returning to the region
Saturday into Sunday. 850mb temps climb from +5C to +10C on Saturday
to about +10C to near +20C on Sunday. In addition to the warmer air,
low level moisture will be increasing this weekend. Dew point
temperatures go from 30s to low 40s on Saturday to about 50 to 55
degrees on Sunday. All these changes are setting the stage for
active weather to return on Sunday and persist through Tuesday.
An upper low/trough is progged to crash into the West Coast by early
Saturday and track east to northeast into the Great Basin Saturday
night through Sunday. Guidance among deterministic and ensemble
solutions remain fairly aligned in tracking this system northeast
into the Rockies/Northern High Plains late Sunday into Monday and
eventually into our region of the Northern Plains by late Monday.
Sfc low pressure is progged to shift northeast through the Rockies
into the Northern High Plains Saturday into Sunday. This system will
then track east into the Dakotas late Sunday into Monday. Parts of
the region could see some low PoPs starting as early as late
Saturday into early Sunday, but the bulk of the moisture doesn`t
arrive until the 2nd half of Sunday through Monday. PoPs increase
from 30-50 percent early Sunday to 50-70 percent by Sunday night to
60-80 percent on Monday. Our forecast area will begin to dry out on
Tuesday with just some leftover low end PoPs the first half of the
day. Drier and cooler conditions will then return for late in the
period.
This late weekend storm system will have the potential to deliver
measurable rainfall for most of the forecast area as well as some
severe thunderstorms for other portions of the CWA. Models have
consistently been hinting that most of the forecast area will at
least see a quarter inch of rainfall to as much as three-quarter
inches with potential for locally higher amounts than that. Taking
the rainfall probabilities in 2 chunks; among the GEFS/GEPS/ENS
solutions, there remains a difference between the 25th and 75th
percentiles of about a quarter of an inch to nearly a half inch on
average across the CWA for a 24hr accumulation ending at 12Z Monday.
For the same parameters for the following 24 hr period ending at 12Z
Tuesday, there`s a larger discrepancy among the 3 solutions with the
GEFS relatively conservative at between a tenth and two-tenths of an
inch versus the GEPS/ENS more aggressive between roughly a quarter
inch to a little more than a half inch. Taking a split down the
middle using probabilities of seeing a half inch or more of rainfall
in a 24 hr period ending at 12Z Monday vary across the CWA from
about 15-30 percent and 20-40 percent for the 24 hr period ending at
12Z Tuesday with the highest values located along our western and
northern tier of zones. The strong to severe convection parameters
still remain in place more or less with joint probabilities of
CAPE>500 j/kg and shear>30kts is 25-50 percent on Sunday afternoon
with the highest values west of the James Valley. These highest
probabilities translate east on Monday with 30-60 percent probs
along and east of the James Valley. This still coincides with SPC`s
Day 6(Monday) severe weather outlook that highlights our far eastern
zones(I-29 corridor and points east) with a 15% chance for severe
thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions will prevail across the area this evening and
most of the overnight. However, early Thursday morning, cigs are
supposed to begin lowering into MVFR range, first at KPIR by
around 12Z and then at KMBG by 15Z, followed by KABR and KATY at
or after 18Z Thursday. Scattered to numerous rain showers are
possible at KPIR from now through early Thursday morning, then
after a short break, those shower chances return to the KPIR
terminal. Similarly, KMBG and KATY may experience a couple of
showers prior to 12Z Thursday, but between ~15Z Thursday and the
end of the TAF valid period, scattered to numerous rain showers
are expected at KMBG/KABR and KATY. Sub-VFR visbies may accompany
any showers during the TAF valid period.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
734 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather, with warmer than average temperatures will
continue on Thursday. However, there will be a low chance for
showers North of the Mohawk Valley Thursday afternoon into Friday
morning. Our next chance for widespread rainfall arrives Friday
night into Saturday morning with rain exiting the region Saturday
evening. Dry, breezy and cooler conditions return for Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
- Isolated to widely scattered showers (25 - 40% chance) and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm (20-30% chance) grazes the
southern Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley, and southern VT
tomorrow afternoon.
- Some smoke from the NJ wildfires may advect into the eastern
Catskills, mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield County, CT
tomorrow into tomorrow night.
Discussion:
Beautiful spring today continues across the region today with
plenty of sunshine and temperatures warming comfortably into the
60s with low 70s into the mid- Hudson Valley thanks to deeper
boundary layer mixing. Lowered dew points and RH values a bit
compared to the previous forecast based on trends and the very
dry 12 UTC ALY sounding this morning.
Heading into tonight, high pressure remains in control with
mainly clear skies mixing with increasing high clouds after
Midnight, especially north of I-90. It will turn chilly tonight
thanks to mostly clear skies with temperatures dropping into the
low to mid 40s with mid-upper 30s in the southern Adirondacks,
southern Vermont, and Upper Hudson Valley.
Clouds continue to increase on Thursday as the surface warm
front near the US/Canadian border descends southward towards the
Adirondacks as a compact shortwave traverses through Ontario,
Canada. Given how far north the forcing is displaced, the sfc
boundary only reaches as far south as our southern Adirondacks
and Upper Hudson Valley areas so scattered showers will likely
be limited to our northern zones. Thus, we limited chance POPs
to these areas. We extended slight chance POPs down through the
I-90 corridor to account for an isolated shower or two that may
develop further south based on the latest CAMs including the
HRRR as the mid-level front shifts further south. Forecast
soundings indicate potential for some weak elevated instability
to spill from north to south towards the I-90 corridor so
included slight chance thunder for northern areas. Otherwise,
strengthening westerly winds aloft within the zone of confluence
over northern New England will advect the warm sector into the
Northeast allowing temperatures to respond nicely into the low
to mid 70s.
The one "fly in the ointment" will be potential for some smoke
from the wildfire in Ocean County, NJ to advect into our mid-
Hudson Valley and Litchfield County, CT tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Smoke looks to get wrapped into the clockwise/westerly flow
around the building high and the latest output from the
vertically integrated smoke output shows some smoke could reach
into the mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield County, CT tomorrow
afternoon/evening. While values are rather low, it will be
something to monitor through tomorrow. Our state environmental
agency partners will lead any decisions regarding air quality
alerts.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
- Widespread rain likely (greater than 75% chance) develops
late Friday afternoon into Friday evening and continues into
Saturday morning. Rain gradually exits from west to east
Saturday afternoon with a few showers lingering Saturday
evening.
- There is a 25 - 45% chance for total rainfall amounts will
exceed 0.75" across eastern NY and western New England.
Flooding is unlikely.
Discussion:
Partly to mostly cloudy skies Thursday night as our compact
shortwave in Ontario exits into Quebec allowing the upper level
ridge axis to build eastward towards the Northeast. Weak warm
air advection aloft plus the cloud coverage will keep temperatures
mild in the mid to upper 40s in northern zones with low to mid
50s elsewhere.
As upper level ridging builds further on Friday, the ridge axis
pushes north/eastward across the Northeast allowing the warm
front lingering across our southern Adirondack/Upper Hudson
Valley areas to finally lift to our north. This will allow the
leading edge of the true warm air advection to push into the
region resulting in much warmer temperatures, especially as
boundary layer mixing deepens during the afternoon. Expecting
highs to rise above normal into the mid to upper 70s with even
around 80 in the mid-Hudson Valley. A few isolated showers are
possible across our northern zones Friday morning but once the
front lifts north, POPs decrease.
Southwesterly winds increase Friday afternoon as we enter into
the warm sector and an upper level shortwave trough digging
through the Upper Plains amplifies resulting in stronger
deep layer southwesterly winds across the Northeast. Most of the
day should be dry as the strongest forcing remains displaced
well to our west; however, POPs trend to slight chance and
chance after 18 - 21 UTC mainly for areas north/west of the
Capital District as upper level height falls start to approach
western zones.
Showers increase in coverage Friday evening and become more
widespread and persistent overnight Friday night into Saturday
morning as the strongest height falls spread into the Northeast
and a strong 40-50kt southwesterly mid-level jet advects a 1 -
1.25" PWAT plume into the region. The overlap of the strongest
forcing and moisture transport continues into Saturday morning
but shifts further east into New England by Saturday afternoon.
Exactly how quickly the widespread rain exits into New England
remains uncertain as the main upper level parent trough
continues to deepen over the Great Lakes into Saturday and thus
will likely slow down. This will likely allow rain to linger
over portions of eastern NY and especially over western New
England through the afternoon. In fact, probabilistic guidance
shows 40 - 50% chance for measurable rain in western New england
18 UTC Saturday through 00 UTC Sunday with 30 - 40% chance from
the Hudson River to VT/MA/CT borders and less than 30% chance
for areas north/west of Albany. Given the increased confidence
for rain to linger into at least part of Saturday afternoon, we
lowered temperatures a bit to show highs only reaching into the
low to mid 60s with mid-50s in the southern/western
Adirondacks.
Increased confidence for widespread rain to exit from west to
east Saturday night as the mid-level dry slot sweeps in behind
the sfc cold front. A few returning showers possible overnight
as the main compact and potentially cut-off upper level
trough/cold pool tracks overhead but the organized area of rain
will likely be to our east.
Total rainfall amounts Friday evening through Saturday afternoon
range from 0.50 - 1.00" with the highest amounts likely along
the southern facing slope of the southern Adirondacks and
southern Greens due to upslope enhancements. While WPC maintains
the Northeast in the marginal risk in the Excessive Rainfall
Outlook, flash flooding is unlikely but some localized flooding
cannot be ruled out in poor drainage and urbanized areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday turns sunny and drier as large scale subsidence builds
over the Northeast in the wake of our exiting upper level/cut-
off low. The pressure gradient between the exiting sfc low and
incoming high pressure will remain tight through the day. This
combined with a much drier incoming airmass will support breezy
northwest winds. Probabilistic guidance indicates 30 to 50%
chance for wind gusts to exceed 30mph on Sunday mainly across
the Mohawk Valley, Capital District, into western New England.
Given deep boundary mixing and plenty of sunshine, temperatures
will still rise into the low to mid 60s which is right around
normal for late April but the very dry air mass and breezy
winds will make it cooler. Overnight lows turn chilly Sunday
night thanks to clear skies and weakening winds supporting
efficient radiational cooling. Lows drop into the 30s and 40s.
Monday and Tuesday remain dry and trend warmer as high pressure
builds into the Northeast and shifts to our east resulting in
southwest flow aloft. Confidence is increasing that temperatures
on Tuesday could approach 80 as probabilistic guidance shows 50
to 65% chance for high temperatures to exceed 75 degrees in the
Hudson and Mohawk Valley.
Next chance for rain showers looks to be Tuesday night into
Wednesday as our next cold front pushes through the region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions will prevail at area TAF
sites over the next 24 hours. Winds will become light and
variable after sunset and remain that way through the overnight
hours. SCT/BKN clouds around 5kft are forecast to work into the
region by Thursday morning. There will be a low chance (less
than 30 percent) for SHRA from KALB northward during the
afternoon hours with little operational impact expected. Winds
during the day Thursday are expected to be from the south to
southwest and generally less than 10 knots.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of RA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
While a few isolated to scattered showers are possible mainly
across the southern Adirondacks, southern VT and the Upper
Hudson Valley, afternoon RH values will be as low as 25 to 30
percent mainly south of I-90, especially in the mid-Hudson
Valley, eastern Catskills, and Litchfield County, CT. Southerly
winds strengthen to 5 - 10kts with gusts up to 20kts. RH values
should recover to 60-90 percent at night with winds turning
light and variable.
Confidence is increasing for widespread rain Friday night into
Saturday.resulting in 0.50 - 1.00" across eastern NY and western
New England.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TH/Schyljuk
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Humphrey
FIRE WEATHER...KL/Speciale
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
949 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Clear to partly cloudy late tonight with a few showers possible
through tomorrow morning, mainly over the northern Finger
Lakes. Isolated showers and thunderstorms can pop up tomorrow
afternoon and evening, especially across central NY. The next
system will arrive Friday and Saturday, bringing showers and a
slight chance of isolated thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
935 PM Update...
Little change has been to the forecast overall through tomorrow
night. Temperatures have been a little slow to drop off early
this evening so blended in the latest obs and a bit of the HRRR
to the next few hours. A round of spotty showers is still
expected later tonight through tomorrow morning, generally
through about 14Z, for CNY, especially around the Finger Lakes
region. Taking a look at the latest forecast soundings, the
chance for showers and thunderstorms remains isolated tomorrow
afternoon and evening from south of the I-90 corridor to the
Twin Tiers beginning around 19-20Z, but any thunderstorm that
does manage to pop up could produce locally gusty winds and even
some small hail.
313 PM update...
Main concerns/challenges in the near term are focused on the
potential for rain showers late tonight across the northern lake
plain of the Finger Lakes and then some redevelopment of
scattered light showers and even a few weak thunderstorms from
Steuben County, along the southern Finger Lakes into the
northern Catskills Thursday afternoon. Severe weather is not
expected. Temperatures will be some of the warmest so far this
season.
A low amplitude upper level ridge axis at 500mb is moving east
across the Northeast US this afternoon and working in
conjunction with a narrow ribbon of dry air and a weak surface
ridge to produce dry weather conditions and mostly sunny skies
today. A more robust plume of moisture is currently situated
farther to the west over the central Great Lakes and will
combine with a passing weak upper s/w that will move across the
western Great Lakes and northern NY later tonight.
The air mass this afternoon is currently being modified by weak
warm air advection from the southwest and this pattern will
slowly continue tonight and even more so Thursday during the
day. Temperatures have climbed into the 60s for most of the
forecast area with highs expected to top out in the lower 70s in
the Chemung Valley and Wyoming Valley in the next couple hours.
Clear skies tonight will lead to some radiational cooling
tonight and drop lows into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Cannot
completely rule out patchy fog...with model forecast soundings
indicating a very sharp and well-defined low level
inversion...but confidence is not high enough to include in the
official forecast at this time given the relatively lack of
near-surface available moisture.
As mentioned above, a weak short wave is forecast to move
quickly from western NY into northern NY late tonight and
potentially trigger a few light rain showers during this time.
The forcing along this wave is quite weak and deep moisture is
on the lower side as well. Any precipitation with this wave will
be only a couple hundredths of an inch.
Temperatures are expected to rise quickly into the upper 60s
and lower 70s before noon Thu and then into the mid to upper
70s, close to 80 by the mid afternoon time frame. With dew
points in the upper 40s close to 50, boundary layer conditions
will be on the dry end of the spectrum...which could limit the
potential for rain to make it to the ground. A weak surface
boundary and slightly stronger warm air advection in the mid
levels from the SW could help develop a few isolated showers and
weak thunderstorms along the southern tier of NY, into the
Finger Lakes and northern Catskills. ML CAPE values are only
expected to rise into the 200-300 J/kg range with a minimal
amount of shear. Soundings are highlighting the large amounts of
dry air in the mixed layer with an inverted v signature...and
also rather dry air aloft too, so the main threat if any
convection does get going will be for gusty downburst winds.
The boundary layer stabilizes Thursday evening as large scale
suppression dominates ahead of the next low pressure system
expected to move in later on Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update...
An area of low pressure moves through Southern Canada with a
warm front lifting north through NY. Timing of the front is
still a little uncertain but there is more ensemble members that
have the warm front lifting through in the early to mid
morning. With the timing ahead of much solar heating, the region
should be mostly dry outside of the Finger Lakes region into
northern CNY where some instability may develop.
Saturday night has a better chance for widespread precipitation
as a 50 mb shortwave moves in with better accent. Warm and
humid air advecting in at 850 will provide enough moisture for
elevated instability so thunder has been added to the weather
grids for overnight. The instability is not great, largely less
than 300 in most forecast soundings, but deep enough to get some
cloud ice and charge separation.
A strong cold front moves through Saturday with most of the
precipitation ending by mid to late morning. 850 mb temperatures
fall through the day, likely below 0C by the late afternoon. A
tight pressure gradient and boundary layer winds will be strong
enough overnight to keep overnight lows a little warmer, likely
above freezing area wide.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM Update...
Long term starts off chilly with the cold air mass aloft though
already on Sunday, temperatures aloft begin to recover and with
sun for much of the day, temperatures quickly moderate. Sunday
night looks like it may be colder than Saturday night as there
is a surface high building in with clear skies aloft.
Temperatures were lowered to the NBM 10th for now and may need
to be lowered farther if dew points can mix low during the day
Sunday. Ridging builds back in early next week with temperatures
rising back above seasonal averages by Tuesday. Tuesday into
Wednesday has some potential for severe thunderstorms as
Ensembles all have a strong low passing through Southern Canada
with the region in the warm sector and mean shear approaching 40
knots. Mid level lapse rates have trended steeper in global
models (now >6C/km) and ensembles have trended upwards with mean
CAPE (>400 J/kg).
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Some clouds will stream in late tonight with isolated showers
through tomorrow morning for the NY Terminals, mainly around
ITH, SYR and RME, but no restrictions are expected. A few pop up
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two are possible tomorrow
afternoon and evening, mainly after 19-20Z, but confidence was
too low to include at any TAF site at this time. If any
thunderstorm does develop, any restrictions would be brief.
Winds will be becoming light and variable tonight, shift more
southerly tomorrow and eventually west-northwesterly late in the
period.
Outlook...
Thursday night...Mainly VFR.
Friday through Saturday... Showers with possible restrictions.
Saturday night through Monday...Mostly quiet and dry with high
pressure overhead.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT/DK
NEAR TERM...BJT/DK
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...BJT/DK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
629 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 625 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
Decreased thunder chances overnight and added in patchy fog to the
forecast. Wet ground, low dwpt depressions, and calm to light
winds would be supportive, however lingering mid to high cloud
cover may limit fog formation. Otherwise, no other changes to the
forecast.
12
Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
This afternoon.
A west-southwest flow pattern aloft prevails over the area this
afternoon with longwave troughing extending from over Central
Missouri south to over South-Central Louisiana. A warm front was
analyzed from the Ozarks in Northwest Arkansas east across
Kentucky and into North Carolina while weak surface high pressure
was centered offshore of the Southeast Atlantic Coast. On the
mesoscale, RAP 13 km analyses depict a shortwave trough over the
West and Southwest Counties with another over the Eastern portions
of the forecast area. Abundant moisture was analyzed from 700 mb
down toward the surface, resulting in precipitable water values
near 1.70 inches per modeling across portions of our southwest
counties.
Expect partly cloudy skies southeast with more clouds to the west
and north. Scattered showers (35-55%) with at least isolated
thunderstorm activity (20-40%) will persist through the rest of
the afternoon with activity most supportive by depicted features
over the west and central portions of the area. Thicker cloud
cover will help keep temperatures lower than what otherwise would
be achieved with readings from the upper 70s far east to the mid
80s far southeast where rain chances are lower. Winds will be from
the east to southeast at 4-8 mph.
Tonight.
The forecast area will remain positioned beneath a general
southwest flow pattern aloft overnight with the longwave trough
extending from over Southern Missouri south to over Western
Mississippi and Eastern Louisiana. The synoptic warm front will
remain to our north, extending from the Middle Mississippi River
Valley eastward into East Tennessee and the Carolinas.
Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies to linger overnight with
isolated showers (25-45%) and a few thunderstorms (15-25%) to
persist with best chances across the west. Low temperatures will
range from around 60 northeast to the lower 60s southwest and
central. Winds will be from the east at 3-6 mph.
Thursday.
Longwave troughing will continue to extend from over the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley region southeast over much of the
forecast area while a shortwave impulse is progged to move
northeast through the day on Thursday. A stationary front will
remain to the north and northeast of the forecast area while
surface high pressure strengthens across portions of the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic States, helping keep the front draped across
portions of South Carolina.
Shower activity will likely be ongoing in scattered fashion
(35-55%) to start the morning across the northern portion of the
area and expand southwest with time later in the day and through
the afternoon hours. At least isolated (15-35%) thunderstorms are
expected by late morning and continuing into the afternoon hours.
High temperatures will range from the upper 70s far north and in
the higher elevations east to readings in the mid 80s generally
along and south of the U.S. Highway 80 corridor. Winds will be
from the southeast at 4-8 mph.
05
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
Fairly consistent messaging from the previous forecast. Unstable
weather remains in the forecast through the weekend. There remains
some hints that Sunday may be drier in the northeast as the front
tries to actually sag southward. The problem with the overall
pattern is that we will be in northwest flow so exactly where the
best lift will be for Sunday will not be determined until the
mesoscale features can be determined closer to the weekend. This
front finally washes out by Monday and Tuesday, with the next
front approaching the area late next Wednesday.
16
Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
Friday, a low pressure will move quickly to the east from the
northern MS River Valley area, with a trailing boundary across
areas just to the north of Alabama. At the same time, a broad high
pressure system will be just to the southeast, over the southeast
coast, allowing for plenty of southerly flow and moisture
advection. This boundary will be draped across the state
Saturday, and will allow for enough lift for mostly diurnal
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon, with a
low chance for less coverage of showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the late night and early morning. PW values will
be around max for this time of year, from 1.4 to 1.7 inches
during this time, and instabilities will be between 1500 and 2000
J/kg. A few storms could be strong, with damaging winds, large
hail, and frequent lightning the main threats. There is enough
moisture that any thunderstorm will produce high rainfall rates,
and any areas that receive training storms, or storms moving over
the same area, could experience very localized flooding issues.
By Sunday, the low pressure should be off the east coast, with a
high pressure moving to the southeast across the northeastern
states. Models are really hanging on to less rainfall on Sunday
with most of the convection to the north of the state, so have
kept lowered rainfall chances in.
Through the beginning of the work week, models are diverging on
rainfall coverage. While one model shows very little coverage with
the high pressure to the northeast of the area suppressing any
activity developing in the afternoon, other models hold on to
activity each afternoon. With the PW values remaining max and low
levels warming slowly through the week, will advertise a low
chance for activity continuing through the beginning of the
workweek.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
Sites will see VFR conditions for the most part through the
evening and overnight, save for a brief passing shower possible.
Ceilings may lower to MVFR tomorrow morning with a low cloud deck,
before another afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Northern terminals will be most likely to see thunderstorm
activity again tomorrow afternoon, but also can`t rule it out at
MGM.
12
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A late spring/early summer like pattern is expected through the
week with chances for showers and thunderstorms each day. RH
values drop into the 35 to 40 percent range in the southeastern
portions of Central Alabama at times, but remain above 40 percent
elsewhere. Winds will generally remain in the 5-10 MPH range with
occasional gusts to 20 MPH at times.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 60 81 60 82 / 50 60 40 60
Anniston 60 81 62 82 / 50 60 40 60
Birmingham 63 81 64 83 / 50 60 30 50
Tuscaloosa 63 82 63 83 / 50 50 20 50
Calera 62 81 64 83 / 50 50 30 50
Auburn 62 84 63 81 / 40 50 30 30
Montgomery 62 86 63 85 / 40 40 20 30
Troy 62 86 62 85 / 40 30 10 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
616 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Moist southeasterly flow will produce thunderstorms on
Wednesday and Thursday with a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms for southeastern portions of the CWA both days.
- Adequate low and mid level moisture along with passing weather
disturbances will help produce scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms nearly every day.
&&
.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Early afternoon surface and satellite obs as well as latest CAM
guidance indicate a notably reduced thunderstorm threat today.
GOES visible satellite imagery over the eastern high plains of
Wyoming as well as the western Nebraska Panhandle reveal a
thick deck of stratus as of 19z. While some breaks in this cloud
cover are noted over far northeast Colorado, northwestward
advection of this region appears at best to only affect portions
of Cheyenne County NE early this afternoon. In fact, stable
low-stratus waves are also noted in the western edges of this
cloud field which has reached the I-25 corridor. These satellite
observations, along with surface temps generally in the upper
40s to low 50s with surface dewpoints in the upper 30s to near
40, suggest surface-based instability will be hard to come by
for at least the next several hours this afternoon. Latest HRRR
and RRFS CAM guidance also indicate a downward trend in
convective chances with any updrafts firing in the Laramie Range
quickly dissipating as they move east into more stable air.
There is still a narrow window for some more robust thunderstorm
activity after around 0z in the Nebraska Panhandle as some
guidance suggests the advection of a more unstable airmass over
northwest KS/southwest NE into the SNY/AIA area. However,
probabilities for severe-level thunderstorms even in this area
of the CWA are much lower than originally forecast.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 123 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2025
A series of shortwaves transit the area through Thursday night
in west-southwest flow aloft. One of these disturbances crosses
the region Wednesday afternoon and evening, with another set to
swing through Thursday afternoon. Extensive cloud cover in
east-southeast surface upslope flow has slowed surface heating
and hindered destabilization along and east of the Laramie
Range. However, clearing skies to the west of the Laramie Range
has allowed for weak convection to develop as of 1 PM,
especially over the Snowy Range. The overall trend will be for
convection across this region to become more widespread and move
east-northeast through the late afternoon. Platte, Goshen, and
Laramie Counties see their best chance for convection between 3
and 6 PM, before showers and thunderstorms impact the Nebraska
Panhandle between 5 and 8 PM. The northern-tier of counties see
less instability through the evening hours, hindering
thunderstorm development across this region.
Precipitation chances wane from west-to-east overnight before
increasing around midday Thursday over the Sierra Madre and
Snowy Ranges. Once again, the northern-tier of counties will see
less instability as a quasi-stationary front lingers across this
region. Instability notably increase across the southern half or
so of the forecast area Thursday afternoon during peak heating,
especially after 2 PM. Despite temperatures cooler than
seasonal averages, dew points in the lower to mid 40s should be
sufficient to support convection into the evening hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 152 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2025
The pattern across our region becomes more active today as we
see daily showers and thunderstorms begin and continue into the
long term, with a chance of marginal isolated severe weather
possible. For Wednesday, a stalled and fairly weak frontal
boundary along the WY/CO border is expected to hover near or
possible droop even a bit more southwards through the day. This
is expected to become much less conducive of severe weather
chances as the best instability shifts more southeastwards
compared to previous model runs and a stronger cap begins to
setup across portions of southeastern Wyoming. High-res guidance
has notably backed down on the potential for stronger
thunderstorms, with the last few major runs of the HRRR
struggling to produce stronger thunderstorm cells as CIN values
are on the rise. With that being said, the combination of the
stalled boundary alongside easterly to southeasterly flow
producing some upslope component and the potential for the
Chugwater Cyclone effect means we still can`t rule out severe
weather yet. And deterministic guidance still isn`t as
indicative of convective inhibition in the Nebraska Panhandle,
where the SPC continues to note at least a marginal risk for
severe weather. Any storms that can get going in the environment
will have the fuel for some hail and gusty winds, possibly
reaching the aforementioned severe levels, but with a lack of
better forcing and only modest instability at best these will be
limited in their overall severity.
Convection is expected to persist into the nighttime hours,
though thunderstorm potential should diminish by around midnight
as the environment stabilizes. Diurnal heating is expected to
produce another round of thunderstorm potential Thursday
afternoon, but the scope of this activity should be even more
limited compared to Wednesday. The bulk of any storms should
occur mostly through the afternoon and subside a bit earlier
into the evening. Ingredients for stronger thunderstorms should
shift further south and mostly limit the severe potential
outside of our region, but a brief bout of better instability
may be able to exist along and south of I-80 primarily in
Laramie County just after noon, with the HRRR maxing the area
just above 1200 J/kg alongside effective shear in excess of 30
knots. This might be just enough that if any CIN in the region
can be overcome, we could see a brief stronger cell or two
before instability dives back southward, once again with hail
and gusty winds the main risks. In any case, shower and
thunderstorm activity will be conducive of favorable rainfall
for the region, and any locations that can receive stronger
storms or multiple bouts of showers will have the potential for
a quarter to half an inch of rainfall, with isolated heavier
amounts possible. This favorable surge of moisture will also
help to alleviate fire weather concerns, with minimum RH values
east of the Laramie Range jumping into the 40-60%+ range. The
constant cloud cover and post-frontal environment will keep us
on the cooler side over the next few days, with highs in the
50`s to 60`s through the end of the week, warmer further west
where more clearing should occur allowing more diurnal heating
to occur.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 152 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Friday...Another decent setup for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, with the flow aloft turning southwest, and moist low
level southeast winds underneath. Looks like scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms once again, with a bit less
coverage than Thursday. With 700 mb temperatures near 1 Celsius and
plenty of cloud cover, high temperatures will be in the upper 40s to
lower 60s.
Saturday...Warmer temperatures expected with less cloud cover and
700 mb temperatures near 8 Celsius yielding maximum temperatures
from the mid 60s to lower 70s. With less low and mid level moisture
availability, shower and thunderstorm coverage will be less than
Friday.
Sunday...As the primary trough aloft moves into Utah, southwest flow
aloft strengthens over our counties, helping to produce a surface
lee trough, which will act as a focus for isolated to scattered late
day showers and thunderstorms.
Monday...As a potent shortwave trough aloft and its associated cold
front move across our counties, we expect scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Cooler 700 mb temperatures near -2 Celsius
will yield high temperatures in the 50s to mid 60s.
Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft prevails in the wake of the shortwave
trough and cold frontal passage. Looks like enough low and mid level
moisture and cyclonic flow aloft to produce scattered showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms. Somewhat cooler temperatures in the
wake of the cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM MDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Widespread unsettled conditions are expected through the TAF period
as a couple of shortwaves traverse through the cyclonic flow. Low-
level easterly upsloping flow has resulted in a substantial low
cloud deck at several terminals. This will continue through much of
the period, keeping MVFR to IFR ceilings at most terminals through
Thursday. Adding to this will be the possibility for thunderstorms
through the morning hours, with the best chances at Nebraska
terminals. Showers will then be possible at these terminals through
the rest of Thursday, at times resulting in MVFR visibilities as
well. Thunderstorm potential will increase again after 18Z
Thursday.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...MAC
UPDATE...RIW
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RIW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
716 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 50 to 70% chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
this evening through early Thursday.
- Unseasonably cool temperatures are expected Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 708 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
**MESOSCALE DISCUSSION**
We have received several hail reports between 1" and 2". Our 00Z
RAOB showed CAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km bulk shear has
increased to 43 kt, which does support the supercell formation we
have seen over the last several hours. 0-1 km SRH was around 100
m2/s2, which shows that the overall tornado threat is on the lower
side. We did have one supercell with pretty strong rotation near
Manning, Kansas that has since weakened. So in the few near term
of a 1-3 hours, we will continue to see a severe threat. Storm mode
has evolved a little more messy, so the threat of larger hail might
be slightly reduced as this messier storm mode and more storm interactions
ensue. Short term HRRR guidance does show hints of a lower hail size
and possible a more wind threat evolving with time in the watch area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
WV imagery indicates a west-southwest flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a stalled frontal
boundary extends from west central Kansas northeast into north
central Kansas.
Thunderstorm chances (50-70%) return early this evening, increasing
overnight as the SREF indicates another compact upper level
shortwave perturbation ejecting east-northeast out of the Southern
Rockies into the Western High Plains. In response, a stalled
boundary attendant to a surface low in eastern Colorado and
stretching northeast across west central Kansas into north central
Kansas is projected to lift slowly north through this evening.
Meanwhile, prevailing southerlies will continue to draw moisture
into south central Kansas and much of southwest Kansas with
mid/upper 50s(F) dewpoints spreading further north/northwest through
southwest Kansas with the lower 60s(F) moving up into south central
Kansas by early evening, increasing instability with MUCAPE values
upward of 1500-2000 J/kg.
Despite a fairly weak field of westerlies aloft, sufficient
instability combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates from
diurnal heating behind an exiting cloud shield in central Kansas
will set the stage for thunderstorm development as H5 vort maxima
associated with the small shortwave trough pushes through the high
plains early this evening, interacting with the aforementioned
boundary. In accordance with most CAMs, the best chance for storm
development is projected to be across extreme southwest Kansas into
west central Kansas generally after 21-22Z with storms then
spreading east-northeast into central Kansas overnight. This is also
supported by the latest HREF painting a corridor of a 70-90%
probability for 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch initially in far
southwest Kansas, then tracking east-northeast across the remainder
of west central and southwest Kansas by late evening.
Dependent on lingering outflow boundaries from potential activity
tonight, thunderstorm chances (50-70%) continue into Thursday as
medium range ensembles indicate little change to the overall pattern
with a west-southwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western
High Plains, downstream of an increasingly more negatively-tilted
upper level trough pushing ashore off the Pacific into southern
California. Surface low is projected to still be situated in eastern
Colorado with an attendant frontal boundary extending northeast
through northwest Kansas toward southern Nebraska. Another 24 hours
of prevailing southerlies will enhance moisture advection into south
central and much of southwest Kansas ahead of a sharpening dryline
extending southward of the surface low into the vicinity of the New
Mexico/Texas border, providing ample instability. Once again,
thunderstorm development is expected sometime late Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening as another series of H5 vort maxima
eject out of the Southern Rockies, interacting with the
aforementioned dryline/adjacent frontal boundary. A less active
period is forecast Friday as weak ridging aloft builds in across the
Western High Plains in conjunction with a cold front pushing
southward through western Kansas into the Texas Panhandle/western
Oklahoma, lowering precip chances.
Above normal temperatures are forecast tonight as prevailing
southerlies further draw warmer air into western Kansas, not to
mention draw increased moisture into the area. With the latest HREF
showing a 50-70% probability of temperatures dropping below 55F in
west central and extreme southwest Kansas to a 60-80% probability of
temperatures slipping below 60F in central Kansas, look for
widespread lows in the 50s(F). Slightly cooler temperatures are
expected Thursday with potential lingering morning convection and
increased cloud cover. Expect afternoon highs generally up into the
lower/mid 70s(F) with the HREF showing a 70-90% probability of
temperatures exceeding 70F. However, highs may struggle to climb out
of the 60s(F) in areas of prolonged cloud cover/lingering rain.
Unseasonably cool temperatures are likely Friday in wake of a cold
front pushing through western Kansas Friday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
The latest CAMS are in good agreement with ongoing convection
(as of 22z Wednesday) near and north of Garden City increasing
in coverage and is expected to spread into the Dodge City and
Hays areas between 02z and 09z tonight. Liberal also has a
chance of experiencing a few thunderstorms between 01z and 06z.
These storms occurring before midnight may produce locally heavy
rainfall, large hail, and gusty winds. After midnight...weaker
and more scattered thunderstorms will remain possible across
much of western Kansas through early Thursday. In addition to
these storms, BUFR soundings indicate an extended period of low
clouds (between 500 and 1,500 feet AGL) tonight into early
Thursday. Forecast guidance also suggests a greater than 50%
chance of IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities in and near these
storms.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Sugden
DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
640 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
...00z Aviation Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Sporadic showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. A few strong to severe storms (large hail and
damaging winds) are possible especially across far NW MO.
- Showers linger through Friday. A break in the precipitation
expected over the weekend.
- Another chance for strong to severe storms Monday into
Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Embedded perturbations within upper level flow combined with a
slowly forming lee trough to the west result in a fairly unsettled
weather pattern over the area. Continued warm air and moisture
advection into the region keeps things generally unstable and the
kinematic picture of the deepening lee trough to the west contains
just enough shear to maintain isolated showers and thunderstorms. A
band of strong to severe thunderstorms has formed along a convergent
boundary stretching across NE KS and far NW MO.
As the trough deepens to the west, this complex of storms slowly
works their way into the region this afternoon and evening. Decent
convergence, broad sufficient instability, and just enough shear is
enabling these storms to form and build relatively quickly. However,
there is not quite enough shear out there to maintain storm
intensity so they are falling fairly quickly as they are forming. At
peak intensity, large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall are
all possible. The general west to east orientation of storms
introduces short localized flash flooding potential.
The short term evolution of these storms remains somewhat uncertain
given the marginally convective broad scale environment. Last
night`s extended HRRR proposed a complex of storms moving through
far NE KS and NW MO. This morning`s extended HRRR now takes those
storms straight to Ft. Smith, AR. This seems to be the result of two
things, a divergence in 1000-500mb thickness, and a receding of CAPE
through the evening. Morning guidance proposed that these afternoon
storms would have more MCS characteristics and follow 1000-500mb
thickness lines. This appears to be the case; although,
unsurprisingly, the real world result is a mixture of both this
solutions. The complex of storms across NE KS looks to be following
the NE divergence of the 1000-500mb thickness lines and track into
far NW MO. Again, the broad instability means that storms could
expand and reach all the way into the KC metro; however, scattered
showers this morning likely stabilized many areas between US-36 and
I-70. MUCAPE is expected to recede southward; hastening after
sunset. This should result in the complex weakening after sunset.
Another area of storms across central KS could potentially organize
into another MCS which propagates across southern and eastern OK
overnight. This convection will likely bypass our CWA to the south
as it follows the NW to SE oriented thickness lines as well as the
sagging MUCAPE. Broadscale isentropic ascent across the warm sector
and the antecedent frontal boundary across far northern MO keep
chances for precipitation around through the overnight.
Zooming out, the 850mb synoptic picture continues to be dominated by
a large high pressure across the eastern seaboard. This maintains the
flow of warm air and moisture from the Gulf. Shortwave troughs
progressing across the region keep scattered rain chances around
through the day Thursday and Friday. A shallow 500mb ridge and
broader 850mb high clear things out Saturday and Sunday. As the
following work week begins, a significant trough is progged to move
across the northern CONUS boosting the flow of warm moist air across
the central Plains. The resulting frontogenesis stretch from the
Upper Mississippi Valley through north Texas presents an opportunity
for another powerful storm system across much of the CONUS. A lot of
uncertainty remains, but early model guidance suggests a potential
for strong storms Monday evening into Tuesday. Storm organization
looks more favorable across eastern and southern MO at this time;
however, variations in the forecast could shift the focus area
westward.
Looking into the extended, the active weather pattern
looks to continue. Multiple perturbations in the upper level flow
present several opportunities for precipitation over the next
several days. Of course, the results of ongoing weather and the
broadscale system Monday into Tuesday will play a significant role
in the weather outlook late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Messy TAF period due to uncertain shower/storm chances in
various parts of the TAF period. In the immediate future,
cluster of storms progressing toward the KC Metro TAF sites and
will affect them with periods of TSRA. Do have best timed
estimates in TAF period. By around 03z, activity wanes for a
while, potential for nocturnal showers/thunder appears best
in/around KSTJ and have that within TAF. By tomorrow
around/after18z, additional shower/storm activity in the area,
but potentially much like this afternoon, unorganized and hard
to predict coverage area. Do have PROB30s to account for this
potential at the moment.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Curtis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1053 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
evening, but confidence is low. Isolated marginally severe
storms with hail is the main threat.
- Periodic precipitation chances continue through Friday, with the
best chance of widespread significant rainfall occurring
Thursday night into Friday morning. There is a 40-70%
probability of receiving a half an inch of rain.
- Northeast to north winds will gust to 25 to 35 mph Friday into
Friday night, especially in the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas.
- Warm and potentially stormy weather is expected early next week.
Portions of the area are highlighted for the potential for
severe weather next Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Short Term...Tonight and Thursday
Focus remains on precipitation trends over the next 24+ hours. As
morning rain/clouds cleared, the afternoon sunshine gave
temperatures a boost, and allowed for increasing instability. At
3:00 PM, MUCAPES ranged from about 300 to 1000 J/kg, with mid
level lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km, and 0-6km shear of 45 to 55
kts. CAMs have not had a good grasp on radar trends today, with
difficulty picking up on the morning activity. Many were virtually
dry for this afternoon and evening, but the 17Z and 18Z HRRR are
now back to showing some evening developing. Overall, this leads
to low confidence moving forward. There isn`t much large scale
forcing, with the surface cold front still back across western
Wisconsin. There are some subtle boundaries around, so diurnally
driven showers/thunderstorms, especially along any boundaries,
would be the main potential. Given the convective parameters,
there remains a marginal risk for isolated severe storms, mainly
for 1" hail. The best chance of this is south of a line from
Wisconsin Rapids to Sturgeon bay from about 6 PM to 10 PM, which
is later than the previous forecast.
Confidence remains low overnight and Thursday morning. There is a
slight uptick in forcing Thursday morning, primarily from an fgen
band around 850mb. This could create some scattered showers for
the first half of the day. Instability is minimal, with some
pockets of ~100 J/kg around. Therefore, some isolated thunder is
possible on Thursday, but overall it will just be rain.
Greater forcing arrives late Thursday afternoon as another fgen
band arrives, along with the RRQ of the upper jet, and the surface
low tracking south of the area. This will be the start of more
widespread rain into Thursday night.
Long Term...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Active pattern expected with two systems to contend with. The
first system will be Thursday night into Friday. FGEN band
expected to set up north and west of Green Bay, which should bring
another round of rain, especially north and west of the Fox Valley
(Green Bay and Appleton) Thursday evening. Meanwhile low prosier
is expected to move into the western Great Lakes by 12z Friday,
thus rain chances will spread eastward into east-central Wisconsin
late Thursday night into Friday morning. NBM probabilities were in
the 40-80% range for a half inch or greater, with only a 10-40%
chance over an inch across central and north-central Wisconsin.
With the low track south of the area, gusty northerly winds
are expected late Thursday night into Friday night which will
impact outdoor activities, especially in northeast Wisconsin.
Canadian high pressure will build into the region Friday night
with dry conditions expected on Saturday under partly cloudy
skies. The dry conditions will continue on Sunday, although
clouds will be on the increase. Models are pointing to elevated
convection breaking out Sunday night into Monday as a warm front
pushes northward. The Storm Prediction Center Day 6 outlook has
portions of area outlined for the potential for severe weather.
It is not often Wisconsin is outlined in a Day 6 severe weather
outlook from SPC> A strong cold front is expected to move across
the area later Monday night into Tuesday morning, although timing
is anticipated to change over the coming days. Not a really
favorable time of day for severe weather, but it is a strong
cold front with some decent dynamics to enhance lift. It could
become warm ahead of the with highs well into the 70s on Monday.
High pressure will slide east across the area Tuesday night,
then east of the area on Wednesday should result in dry
conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Thunderstorms storm activity across central WI has waned this
evening leaving quiet VFR conditions for much of tonight. A cold
front currently draped across north-central WI will continue to drop
south and east across the region. Behind this front winds will turn
to the northwest, but should remain light.
Thursday morning there is a chance for scattered showers to develop
across the Fox Valley and move north and west during the morning.
Conditions should remain VFR within these showers, however, periodic
drops to MVFR vsby are possible. Widespread rain will lift into the
region late Thursday afternoon as a low pressure system moves across
northern IL. Cigs should remain VFR through the TAF period, except
at RHI where they may become MVFR Thursday night.
KGRB/KATW...The threat for any showers or storms at KGRB and KATW
has ended for the night and conditions should remain quiet
overnight. A cold front that is currently draped across north-central
WI will move through KGRB and KATW around 6-7Z which will shift the
winds around to the northwest. Did frame out a chance for -SHRA from
12/16Z Thursday morning in a PROB30 group, but confidence in these
showers occurring is rather low. Rain chances return Thursday evening
as a low pressure system lifts into northern IL, however, rain may
not arrive until after the TAF period. For now this chance for rain
is framed out with a PROB30 group from 01/06Z Friday.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....KLJ/Eckberg
AVIATION.......GK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
645 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing this afternoon
into tonight. A few strong to severe storms are possible,
mainly south of I-80.
- Scattered storms continue Thursday through Thursday night,
again with a few strong storms possible. The weekend looks to
be mostly dry.
- While some details remain uncertain, there is potential for
severe thunderstorms to move across much of the area on
Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Remainder of this afternoon through tonight...
Numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon over
northeast KS with activity focused along a w-e-oriented surface
boundary residing in that area. Latest HRRR output suggests that
convective outflow from those storms is likely to initiate
additional thunderstorms across an increasingly larger portion
of southeast NE, and eventually southwest IA, late this
afternoon into evening. While vertical shear is generally weak,
the presence of a steep-lapse-rate, moderately unstable air mass
will support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of hail up to
quarter size and/or wind gusts up to 60 mph into this evening.
Additionally, some potential for excessive rainfall and
isolated flash flooding could materialize near the NE-KS border
if the ongoing storms continue to drift north.
Since the CAMs have struggled to resolve the ongoing KS storms,
there is considerable uncertainty in the location and coverage
of any subsequent shower and thunderstorm activity later
tonight. That being said, general model consensus depicts
another wave of convection moving into the area from the west by
around midnight with that activity persisting through the
overnight hours. Severe-weather potential with the second round
of storms currently appears to be low.
Thursday and Thursday night...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing tomorrow
morning ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave trough, which will
progress through the mid MO Valley later in the day. Latest CAM
data suggest a gradual decrease in areal coverage of the morning
convection by midday with the air mass gradually destabilizing
along and to the south of the residual cloud debris. By afternoon,
the CAMs indicate renewed thunderstorm development (including a
signal for rotating updrafts) across portions of far eastern NE
and western IA amidst a moderately unstable and modestly
sheared environment. While organized severe storms are not
anticipated, the potential exist for a few storms capable of
isolated occurrences of hail and/or winds approaching severe
levels.
The afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to shift
east of the area by Thursday evening with an additional round of
showers and storms potentially moving into our area late Thursday
night into Friday morning.
Friday and Saturday...
A midlevel ridge is expected to build over the central U.S.
during this timeframe. with surface high pressure progressing
east through the mid MO Valley. That pattern evolution should
support a period of dry conditions, especially from Friday
afternoon through Saturday morning, with increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances (15-30%) by Saturday afternoon, mainly west
of the Missouri River. High temperatures are forecast to be in
the 60s both days.
Saturday night through Monday...
The 12z global models are in reasonably good agreement in the
progression of a vigorous, mid/upper-level trough initially over
the Interior West into the Great Plains on Monday into Monday
night, where it will phase with a polar-branch shortwave trough
moving through the north-central states. At the surface, lee
cyclogenesis will commence Sunday over the central High Plains
with the surface low subsequently developing northeast through
the northern Plains into upper MS Valley on Monday. An attending
cold front is forecast to move through the mid MO Valley Monday
afternoon and Monday night.
The dynamic response to the approaching mid-level trough will
be manifest as a low-level jet (LLJ) over the central Plains by
as early as Saturday night. Heat and moisture fluxes occurring
along that feature will support air mass destabilization with
PoPs increasing to 30-60% Saturday night into Sunday morning.
While 30-40% PoPs will be maintained into Sunday afternoon, it`s
possible these numbers are too high as any appreciable forcing
for ascent is expected to remain to the west of our area, in
closer proximity to the developing lee cyclone.
The LLJ will be maintained through the day on Sunday, leading
to breezy to potentially windy conditions with highs in the 70s.
We could see another round of elevated thunderstorms develop
(30-50% PoPs) again Sunday night as the nocturnal LLJ
reintensifies. By then, the presence of a moist, moderately
unstable air mass could support a few strong to severe storms.
On Monday, strong height falls attendant to the phasing troughs
are forecast to overspread the northern and central Plains where
a moderate to strongly unstable air mass is expected to exist,
along and east of the cold front. The specific location of the
front remains uncertain, and that will ultimately dictate how
much of our area will be at risk for severe weather. Where
storms do develop, the combination of relatively strong
vertical shear and the degree of instability will favor
organized storm modes capable of all severe weather hazards.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Three rounds of showers and storms are expected through the 00Z
TAF period. The first is ongoing and should be clearing KLNK
and eventually KOMA within the next couple of hours. These
storms will likely struggle to make it to KOFK this evening, but
a few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out.
The second round will move out of south central NE into the
forecast area after 06Z tonight, with storms possible through
13Z Thursday morning. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to
fill into northeast Nebraska on the backside of this wave,
likely impacting KOFK. Periods of MVFR cloud cover may be
possible at KLNK through the morning hours.
The next round of storms develops around 17Z Thursday afternoon,
with thunderstorm coverage diminishing toward the end of the TAF
period.
Winds will primarily be out of the southeast at 12 kts or less,
but stronger gusts, a few possibly up to 30-40 mph, may occur
within the thunderstorms.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...KG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1001 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
- Strong to severe thunderstorms appear likely later tonight and
possibly into Thursday morning, with damaging wind gusts and
locally heavy rainfall possible.
- Daily chances for storms and heavy rain continue after that.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
We updated POPs for tonight into tomorrow morning, leaning
heavily on the HRRR with storm chances delayed to mainly after
midnight out west - especially over southwest Oklahoma and
adjacent north Texas. Given weak steering flow and slower storm
movement heavy rainfall is a possibility and there is a marginal
risk of flash flooding. Storms are forecast to consolidate into a
cluster or line shortly after crossing into our CWA, and damaging
wind gusts up to 70 mph are possible (especially over western
north Texas).
Storm chances propagate into central Oklahoma during the early
morning to dawn hours. While storm severity remains uncertain by
this time, some gusty winds are possible.
Thompson
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Cloud cover and subsidence associated with morning`s MCS/MCV has
left much of the area with a localized minima in instability this
afternoon. This should inhibit deep convection for the remainder
of the afternoon into early evening. We expect that thunderstorm
activity will become more numerous this evening across western
portions of the area as the low-level jet increases. CAMs still
show a range of outcomes regarding convective initiation and
evolution tonight, but what seems to make the most sense is that
storms will fire to our west in the panhandles and southwest
Kansas along the dryline and work their way into our area later
tonight in the form of one or more loosely organized convective
clusters. Large hail and a few isolated damaging wind gusts would
be the main hazards with storms tonight.
Ware
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
Uncertainty continues into tomorrow as tonight`s convective activity
will likely modulate the areas most likely to see storms tomorrow.
Would expect that any lingering storms tomorrow morning would weaken
as the low-level jet wanes and it is conceivable that one or more
outflow boundaries from morning convection could then serve as
focal points for initiation tomorrow afternoon, but where these
may set up remains to be seen. Otherwise, the dryline to our west
will once again be a focus for convection tomorrow
afternoon/evening. Many models depict a weak shortwave moving
across the area tomorrow evening as well, which could bring a but
more in the way of forcing to the area. Weak to moderate
instability will be in place, along with slightly higher bulk
shear in the 30-40 kt range. This should be sufficient for
multicell and supercell storm modes with a risk for large hail and
damaging wind gusts initially, with upscale growth then possible
Thursday night into Friday morning (transitioning the risk more
towards wind). If any supercells can remain surface based into the
evening, there would also be a window for a very low tornado risk
as low-level shear ramps up.
A cold front is forecast to sink into the area on Friday and this
could serve as a focus for a bit more widespread shower and storm
development, but once again confidence is low on the details as
Thursday night convective activity could serve to modify the
environment.
Ware
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
We`ve just about gotten to the time of year where fronts can take
multiple days to seep across our area instead of flying through it
in 6 hours. This looks to be one of those cases, as global models
show the cold front stalling or even retreating during the day on
Saturday. Either way, the presence of the front, easterly surface
winds, and dewpoints in the upper 60s should be enough to keep the
potential for storms and heavy rain.
Height falls begin in earnest on Sunday as a powerful upper trough
approaches the Rocky Mountain Front. Global guidance shows the
dryline being located somewhere right around the Caprock by Sunday
afternoon as it extends very sharply southward from a surface low in
Nebraska. With that said, global models often have compounding
errors in over-mixing drylines eastward while also being too
progressive with trough ejections coming out of closed lows. All of
this suggests that the storms during the day on Sunday may start
west (and perhaps well west) of our area before working in during
the overnight hours. Either way, this bears watching, as forecast
soundings look much more classic for severe weather.
The fun times look to continue Monday into Tuesday as the main
trough ejects through the Central Plains. This could bring
another risk for severe weather Monday/Tuesday with all severe
hazards appearing possible.
Meister/Ware
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025
VFR conditions are expected into the evening with LIFR/IFR
conditions and thunderstorms possible from west to east. Timing
and location of storms remains uncertain. However, storms that
have developed in the panhandles could reach western counties
late evening and then consolidating into a line of storms early
Thursday morning. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the
initial hazards with mainly damaging wind gusts as the storms
become a line. There remains significant uncertainty on storm
potential on Thursday and will depend on what happens overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 80 60 76 60 / 10 40 60 50
Hobart OK 81 60 80 59 / 10 60 40 50
Wichita Falls TX 81 62 80 61 / 30 60 60 50
Gage OK 81 56 81 53 / 20 40 50 60
Ponca City OK 82 59 75 58 / 10 10 50 70
Durant OK 79 63 79 64 / 60 10 50 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...01