Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/23/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1014 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near to slightly below normal temperatures through the work
week are forecast to be followed by warming trend through the
weekend.
- After a mostly dry Wednesday, low to medium chances for rain
return to southern North Dakota on Thursday.
- Medium to high chances for rain showers statewide Saturday
through next Tuesday, with low chances for thunderstorms
Sunday through Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Surface low pressure has shifted into southeast Manitoba as of
1000 PM CDT, with an upstream closed upper low analyzed near
the ND/SK/MB border intersection. The scattered shower activity
across central North Dakota has nearly concluded. Meanwhile,
light rain and snow continue to fall across northern parts of
the state, mainly north of Highway 2. Recent webcam imagery
indicates some relatively heavier snow showers across Divide and
Burke Counties, with visibility impacted. This snow is not
being detected by radar and is absent from most forecast
guidance, except for the RAP which suggests snow gradually
dissipating in the northwest overnight, but perhaps shifting
farther east towards the Turtle Mountains.
UPDATE
Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Scattered shower activity has become more prevalent along a corridor
from near Sidney, MT to Bismarck. This trend will likely persist
until closer to sunset. Farther north, precipitation has mostly been
limited to areas along the Canadian border for the past couple
hours. Snow had been mixing in with rain as recently as late
afternoon, but as of 630 PM CDT it appears that all precipitation is
falling as rain or drizzle. There is still potential for some light
snow to return to the Turtle Mountains later tonight, with little to
no accumulation expected. Model guidance also suggests very low
ceilings with drizzle/mist/fog in the Turtle Mountains area
persisting through the night and perhaps lasting as long as early
Wednesday afternoon. Have added a mention of patchy fog to the
forecast to account for this. May need to monitor for potential
freezing drizzle in the Turtle Mountains later tonight should
precipitation remain as liquid, but guidance shows uncertainty in
this outcome.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Currently a surface low pressure in northeast North Dakota is
slowly moving east. Precipitation wrapping around the low is
present in southern Canada and northern North Dakota. In eastern
Montana scattered showers have formed in the cyclonic flow.
These are moving into northwestern North Dakota, but being
diurnally driven, they will die around sunset. A pressure
gradient and high pressure bubble is the reason for the windy
west winds today.
Thursday a surface high pressure will move in from the west,
creating much calmer winds. Aloft, a quick moving shortwave
ridge will move with it. Highs will only be in the 50s as cooler
air is with this high. Friday southwest flow develops over the
Rockies and Northern Plains, starting our daily chances of rain
through early next week. Temperatures could warm into the lower
70s across the west and south by Sunday as warmer air moves
through the southwest flow. Sunday night a low pressure could
form off the Rockies in Colorado, and move into South Dakota
(potentially) on Monday. Models are already suggesting some
level of thunderstorms off the warm front. The NBM has 25
percent chance of thunder Monday. The rain will start Sunday
night on the outer edge of the low and continue through Monday
evening.
For QPF the GEFS plumes are all over the place for
accumulations, mainly for this weekend. They seem to agree that
for the daily accumulations will likely be 0.20 or less
generally across the area. For this weekend`s potential low the
6 hour hourly QPF is around 0.20 but we are several days out. If
it turns out to be thunderstorms Monday, there will be higher
QPF of course.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail across northern North Dakota
through tonight, with conditions improving from west to east during
the day Wednesday. Some areas along the Canadian border could
see IFR/LIFR ceilings through the night, along with light rain/snow
and drizzle/fog. For the southern half of western and central
North Dakota, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Winds will
mainly be northwest around 5 to 15 kts through Wednesday.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
708 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers/mountain snow Wednesday evening, increasing
Thursday.
- Temperatures increase through the week peaking near 70
Saturday.
- Another storm system taking shape for the weekend into early
next week with possible impacts. Stay tuned.
&&
.UPDATE...
Satellite imagery shows a confluent WNW flow over the region,
which is associated with a ~1020mb Canadian surface high which is
still a bit to our north. W-NW winds have decreased quite a bit
over the past 1-2 hours (as we approach sunset) and this will
translate to light N-E winds per the aforementioned surface high.
There is an upstream wave over OR/ID showing hints of
baroclinicity per cooling cloud tops from OR/ID to south central
MT. As our low level winds turn easterly/upslope, scattered
rain/snow showers will impact our southwest mountains and
foothills thru the night. A couple inches of snow should fall over
the Beartooth-Absarokas, and Red Lodge may even see a dusting of
snow tonight. As forcing slowly increases, light rain/snow showers
may spread to lower elevations like Billings and Hardin by
daybreak Wednesday. Finally, the backdooring wind shift will bring
increased low level moisture into our northeast zones, and HRRR
is starting to pick up some fog from Miles City to Baker starting
around 09z. This seems reasonable given upstream dewpts in the
lower 30s and expected lows around 27-30F. Have added patchy fog
to this area from 09-15z. JKL
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through Thursday night...
Winds will be breezy out of the north/northwest this afternoon as
steep low level lapse rates and 20-25 kt 850 mb winds mix down to
the surface. Snow showers may persist (30%) over the mountains
while rain showers will be possible (15%) across the lower
elevations.
The next chance for widespread precipitation will be Wednesday
evening into Thursday as a 500 mb wave moves across the region.
Low pressure to our south and high pressure to our north will
combine to advect moisture into the region with easterly winds.
The lack of instability and straight line hodographs will limit
thunderstorm development. The NBM is giving locations southeast of
a line from Livingston to Miles City a 30-50% chance of getting
greater than 0.25 inches of precipitation. The most favorable
areas for precipitation will be locations in the mountains and
foothills due to favorable upslope. Snow levels will be around
6,000 ft with north and east facing slopes in the Beartooth
mountains having a 40 to 60% chance for getting greater than 4
inches of snow and the Bighorn mountains having a 20 to 30%
chance.
High temperatures will be in the 50s F Wednesday before
decreasing slightly into the 40s F for Thursday. Most of the short
term will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies. Torgerson
Friday through Tuesday...
Forecast area will be under diffluent flow ahead of the next
Pacific trough on Friday. Clusters already differed in the
strength of this trough at this time. Model trough differences
continued on Saturday with Clusters suggesting some sort of split
to the trough as it`s still on the W coast. Diffluent flow
continues over the forecast area. Trough shifts E toward the
region on Sunday with Clusters continuing to vary in their
depictions of the trough. The trough moves over the region on
Monday with uncertainty continuing in the strength and position of
the system. The trough continues to shift E on Tuesday.
Given the above, there will be low to moderate precipitation
chances Friday through Saturday night, then precipitation chances
will be high Sunday into Monday night, before decreasing on
Tuesday. Gulf moisture will be tapped Friday into Sunday. PWAT`s
will be on the order of 0.50-0.75 inches Friday into Monday per
the SREF and NAEFS. PWAT anomalies will be on the order of 200% of
normal Sunday into Monday, which means a lot of precipitation is
possible for the forecast area. Ensembles showed a very large
spread in possible precipitation amounts for Monday through
Tuesday. NBM probabilities of 0.50 inches QPF for 48 hrs from 12Z
Sun-12Z Tue is 50-60% with 20-50% chances for an inch. There were
low to medium chances for 6 inches of snow in the mountains above
6000` for this period, and minimal chances for any foothills
snow. Current total forecast liquid precipitation amounts from
Sunday through Tuesday were near an inch over most of the area,
with higher amounts from KBIL S and SW. With elevated snow
levels, rain on snow is a concern over the foothills and the high
precip. amounts will be a concern for the burn scars including the
Elk Fire.
There will be possible thunderstorms Friday based on the SREF
which showed a 30% chance of surface CAPE over 500 J/kg and Bulk
Effective Shear at 30 kt or greater in the WSW part of area.
Added thunder to these areas. Clusters indicated that CAPE/shear
could support thunderstorms over the weekend, especially in the E.
Had isolated thunderstorms across the area.
Expect gusty SE winds over the SE on Friday. Monday has the
potential to be a windy day with gusty NW winds based on ECMWF
ensemble wind gusts and a strong pressure gradient behind
departing low pressure. The weekend will be warm, with normal
temps expected for the remainder of the period. Stay tuned to the
forecast for changes. Arthur
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Isolated rain/snow
showers are possible in the mountains. Expect obscurations with
showers. Patchy fog is possible tonight into Wednesday morning,
from KMLS to the Dakota borders. Matos
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/054 040/049 039/060 041/071 046/068 046/056 042/059
12/W 37/W 52/W 23/T 46/T 78/W 54/W
LVM 032/051 036/048 036/054 039/067 041/061 041/052 036/057
12/W 37/W 53/T 23/T 37/T 78/W 44/W
HDN 033/056 040/051 038/062 041/072 044/070 045/058 040/059
13/W 57/W 62/W 33/T 46/T 78/W 64/W
MLS 030/054 038/051 036/057 044/073 046/073 048/059 041/059
11/E 35/W 43/W 22/T 34/T 67/W 54/W
4BQ 034/056 040/047 039/054 045/074 049/073 048/059 040/056
12/W 57/W 52/W 22/T 24/T 57/T 54/W
BHK 027/053 033/053 031/056 041/070 045/072 045/062 037/058
11/B 25/W 43/W 23/T 34/T 66/T 54/W
SHR 030/056 035/047 035/058 039/071 041/068 041/056 036/056
13/W 68/W 52/W 32/T 24/T 68/W 65/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
542 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Moist southeasterly flow alongside a stalled frontal boundary
between WY/CO will produce a thunderstorm risk on Wednesday
with a marginal risk of severe activity.
- Adequate low and mid level moisture along with passing weather
disturbances will help produce scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms nearly every day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Satellite shows some clouds developing along the Interstate 80
corridor this afternoon where weak lift and instability is also
present. Hi-Res guidance shows a weak convergence boundary at the
surface, roughly along a line from Cheyenne to Scottsbluff. This
convergence zone will be the likely area where showers develop and
then push eastward. Given the dry surface, its possible showers will
not develop at all in the CWA this afternoon. However, radar
already shows weak returns just across the border in Colorado.
Any showers that do develop will likely not have much moisture.
Dry, inverted-V soundings suggest high cloud bases, so rain will
likely evaporate before reaching the ground. Inverted-V
soundings also point to these being gusty showers, with DCAPE
values east of the Laramie Range around 600 J/kg. Not expecting
anything severe at this time, but would not be surprised to see
a rogue gust to 50 MPH under these showers. Shower activity
could will die off after sunset.
Tricky forecast headed into Wednesday as synoptic models show
different solutions from Hi-Res guidance. An incoming upper-level
shortwave will try to push a weak cold front into the CWA tomorrow.
Concurrently, a stationary front will exist across eastern Colorado
which will likely spark convection across this area. Synoptic models
are in fairly good agreement that the stationary front will keep the
cold front at bay along the northern border of the CWA, allowing
decent instability and steep lapse rates to develop. Model soundings
from the GFS show about 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE in the southern Nebraska
panhandle with effective shear values greater than 30 kts. Hi-Res
guidance like the HRRR and RAP seem to think the cold front will
move across the area tomorrow, stabilizing the atmosphere. Both
models show very little instability Wednesday afternoon with no
storms developing. Other Hi-Res guidance like the NAMNest does show
a bit more instability leading to run of the mill thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening. Other CAMs seem to be more
aggressive, vaguely showing our typical Chugwater supercell
developing during the afternoon and tracking across the Nebraska
panhandle during the evening hours. SPC has issued a Marginal
Risk for severe weather Wednesday, mainly for areas south of
Alliance and Wheatland, but east of the Laramie Range. Given
this information, if storms do develop tomorrow, they will
likely be at least marginally severe with good low-level
moisture advection. The chance for both large hail and strong
winds will be possible, depending on which model solution pans
out. Regardless of which solution comes to fruition, convection
will likely die off by midnight, per most model guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Mid-level water vapor shows an active Pacific Ocean resulting in an
active long term with almost daily precipitation chances starting
Thursday. A low pressure system pushing in from the Pacific northwest
will send a negatively trough through the Intermountain West. Models
are in pretty good consensus with CAPE values between 1000 to 2000
j/kg. There also looks to be a stream of vorticity with a couple
vorticity maxima`s that may lead to some discrete cell development in
the afternoon and some stratiform rain with some possible embedded
weak thunderstorms in the evening due to the warm air advection as
well. The Intermountain west will be in a southerly flow to help
bring in moisture from the Gulf and saturate the mid to lower levels
allowing for precipitation to reach the ground. Most of the models
have the storms/showers either move off or die off by 06z as a weak
transient ridge sets up over us to give us a slight break before
another wave sets up for another round of convection Friday
afternoon. This wet pattern looks to continue through the beginning
of the next work week.
Mid level temperatures look to remain positive remaining in warmer
temperatures in the 50/60`s through Friday and 60/70`s for this
weekend. The other added benefit will be the overnight temperatures
remaining in the 30/40`s over the next 7 days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Plentiful mid/upper level cloudiness this evening will partially
clear tonight, keeping VFR conditions for eastern Wyo and
western Neb terminals. Wind will be the main aviation weather
concern through the night as gusty west winds transition to
northeast and eventually east. Ceilings lower tomorrow afternoon
as additional moisture streams into the area. Nebraska terminals
will approach MVFR as showers and thunderstorms develop,
primarily after 23/21z.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...DS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
650 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued dry and pleasant for most of the area this evening
and overnight.
- Rain chances increase for Wednesday, particularly for the
afternoon into overnight hours, and includes the risk for
marginally severe storms.
- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue nearly every
day through the end of the forecast period, though confidence
on coverage, timing, and placement remains low. The "driest"
period looks to be late Thursday night through Friday evening.
- Early indications are that are more organized system and
potential for severe weather will come on Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
All in all, as advertised, today has been a very pleasant day
with plentiful sunshine, temperatures in the 70s, and steady,
but modest, easterly breeze. I don`t really see this changing
through the evening hours. Main change to the forecast in the
short term was to back off on shwr/tstm chcs late tonight and
into Wed AM. Suspect most, if not all, of the thunderstorm
development this evening along a stalled boundary (currently
from around DDC to HYS to CNK) will remain just S/SE of the
forecast area. Could perhaps see some expansion overnight
further N with a developing LLJ, but even recent HRRR runs have
really backed off on this for all but perhaps our KS counties.
As such, have limited anything more than slgt chc PoPs through
15Z to along and S of the KS/NE state line.
Suspect most of the area will remain dry through Wed AM, with
perhaps the biggest uncertainty being how far N the primary
frontal zone drifts, and how much low cloud cover accompanies
it. Model consensus is for the front to be draped SW to NE
somewhere over the middle of the CWA, which could present the
opportunity for a solid 15 deg temp from from Ord to Beloit.
Current high temp grid is not this dramatic, but could easily
temps trending cooler in the far N, and warmer in the far S once
uncertainties on stratus potential become clearer. This same
boundary should serve as a focus for new (iso-scat?) tstm
development at some point during the aftn-early eve hrs. Both
CAPE and shear appear to remain modest, but probably sufficient
for a marginally severe storm, or two...esp early on in the
convective cycle when convection is more isolated and able to
take advantage of steeper low level lapse rates. Given the
proximity to the boundary, can`t completely rule out an iso
tornado, or maybe even landspout given stalled nature of the
boundary and marginal deep layer shear...but feel the threat is
too iso/minimal to message more broadly at this point. At least
S portions of the area will retain a scat shwr/storm potential
through the overnight and into Thu AM, though probably not on
the severe side. Worth noting that the 18Z HRRR hinted at the
potential for a summer-like MCS over KS and even a wake low
further N sometime late Wed night into early Thu AM.
Sensible weather on Thursday is a pretty big question mark as it
will likely depend on coverage, timing, and placement of
convection from the previous 12-18 hrs. Gut feeling is that
we`ll see at least one (maybe two) semi-organized rounds of
shwrs/tstms work through the area on Thu into Thu night, but
doubt much if any of this will be too intense given likely weak
instability. Again, how much, where, and when still highly
uncertain. As is often the case with convection around here,
amounts will likely be highly variable with "winners" getting as
much as 0.5-1.5", whereas the "losers" get little to nothing. IF
severe convection were to become a concern, think it would be
mainly along/S of the state line. Still appears a decent
shortwave trough and accompanying cold front will sweep through
the area Thu night or Fri AM and clear most of the area of
moisture/organized precip for the day & eve Fri. Between the
copious clouds/rain on Thu and the cooler N breeze behind the
cold front on Fri, should expect cooler highs mainly in the 60s
each aftn. Risk of frost/freeze appears low, even for our NW.
Return flow will establish itself once again Fri night into Sat
as a large high system shifts E/SE through the Great Lakes
region. Models hint at some elevated activity encroaching on our
far W zones as early as Sat AM, but think the vast majority of
the day and the CWA will remain dry most of Saturday with temps
in the 60s to low 70s (depending on cloud cover). Could see a
repeat of elevated shwrs/storms over parts of the area Sat night
into Sun AM, but at least the EC keeps this spotty then capped
to deep convection the rest of the day. Have a feeling the going
forecast for the weekend is going to wind up sounding much
worse/wetter than what we`ll have in reality. The next decent
chc for organized precip should come on Mon with the arrival of
a moderately strong shortwave/upper jet streak and attendant
sfc low pressure system. Details still murky, of course, at this
time range (including timing)...but general pattern suggests an
increased potential for organized severe weather over the
Plains region, and we already included in the 15% Day 7 outlook.
Certainly envision some scenarios where higher probs are
eventually introduced over or near the forecast area, once the
details become clearer. This is definitely our most
"synoptically evident" severe weather potential over the next
week. Ensembles suggest the high pressure that moves in behind
this system could clear out moisture well S of here and keep us
dry for several days mid to late next week. Temperatures should
be fairly seasonable or even slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Low confidence CIG and shower/storm forecast this period.
Tonight: Quiet conditions and light E-NE winds should prevail
through midnight. Later tonight, some short term model guidance
is much more aggressive than other`s in developing elevated
convection and/or low CIGs (at least MVFR). However, other
guidance suggests any convection will be isolated and favor
areas further S/SE of the terminals...and models that typically
over-predict low stratus this time of year are mainly clear.
Therefore, have kept any lower clouds as SCT and held off until
closer to dawn for this inclusion. We continue to monitor model
trends and make next shift aware of the wide spread in guidance.
Confidence: Low.
Wednesday: Forecast uncertainty carries into Wednesday, as
well...esp in the AM. Models range anywhere from socked in low
stratus (MVFR or even IFR) and perhaps some scattered elevated
convection to mainly clear and dry. Seems reasonable that
convection would be more probable for the aftn as a boundary
edges northward and diurnal instability increases. Thus, have
held off any PROB30 groups for shwrs/storms until the aftn hrs.
Because of the uncertainty, maintained VFR conditions, for now.
Winds look to be E to NE 6-11kt, with some modest gusts 15-20kt.
Confidence: Low.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
621 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Showers have begun to move inland from the Gulf this afternoon,
tapping into the moisture provided by southwesterly flow aloft and
onshore flow at the surface. With CAPE around 2000 J/kg and
vorticity maximums passing overhead, may see some storms fire up
alongside these showers as the afternoon progresses.
While storms are not projected to be as strong as what was observed
yesterday, as the previous forecaster mentioned it is the time of
year when SE TX routinely has favorable dynamics for some storms to
go rogue and become stronger in nature. Shear values aren`t all that
impressive (20-35 kt range) and with the vorticity maximums not all
that...well...maximum...not expecting to see anything wildly strong
or severe. Mostly expect that if any did approach the stronger end
of a typical thunderstorm it would likely produce a decent amount of
rain (thank you 90th percentile PWATs) and isolated stronger gusts
of wind.
Also mentioned by the previous forecaster was the potential for an
MCS early Wednesday morning. 12Z HRRR continues to hold onto this
idea of an MCS tracking across the state and making it into SE Texas
around sunrise on Wednesday. The complexity lies in that it is the
only Hi-Res model that has been consistent with this
possibility...all other Hi-Res models have shown the MCS fizzling
out well before it reaches SE Texas. Have opted to lean more towards
the HRRR since it is *usually* better at handling convective
systems. In any case, not expecting anything severe to occur with
this system. It could produce some gusty winds as it rolls through,
and it certainly has the potential to drop around 0.25"-1.0" of rain
(potentially isolated higher amounts in the stronger parts of the
system).
Temperatures for tonight and tomorrow night will be pretty similar
with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Highs for Wednesday will be in the low 80s inland and in the upper
70s to around 80 degrees along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
We continue our slow march towards summer weather through the
weekend and into the beginning of next week, which will be
characterized by chances for scattered storms and gradually
warming temperatures that will approach the 90 degree-mark. The
overall pattern will remain relatively unchanged for both Thursday
and Friday, with global models indicating a persistent onshore
surface flow regime while a series embedded shortwaves traverse a
quasi-zonal flow in the midlevels. This should be sufficient to
trigger the development of scattered thunderstorms on both
Thursday and Friday, with the risk for storms generally increasing
as you head north away from the coastline. Severe weather is
generally not expected, however an isolated storm or two could
have the potential to become on the stronger side. Temperatures
should reach the upper 80s for many inland areas during the
afternoon hours, and remain right around 70 overnight. Highs along
the coast will remain in the mid 80s.
Rain chances fade heading into the weekend as a midlevel ridge
builds into the area. The presence of high pressure over the
Central Gulf will allow the onshore flow pattern to persist, with
rain chances dropping to near zero through the weekend and into
the early part of next week. Afternoon highs may reach as high as
the low 90s across portions of the area, with surface dew points
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heat index values could have the
potential to reach as high as 95.
Cady
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Widely scattered shra/tsra activity will diminish this evening as
conditions gradually trend from VFR to MVFR this evening and
overnight. Meanwhile, tsra activity developing over W Texas may
impact our region by tomorrow morning or early afternoon.
Confidence is low regarding timing and areal extent of these
storms. That being said, we do think there`s a decent chance of at
least widely scattered TSRA activity tomorrow morning and
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through at
least Wednesday. A long southeasterly fetch of 15 to 25 knots will
develop across the Gulf; resulting in moderate winds and seas up to
6 ft towards the end of the week. Rain and storm chances are
expected on Wednesday as a disturbance moves through. Rain chances
will gradually decrease into the weekend, with only a few daily
showers nearshore and around the Bays.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 82 69 87 / 10 60 20 60
Houston (IAH) 70 82 70 86 / 10 60 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 73 81 73 82 / 10 40 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
943 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm temperatures through the rest of the week
- Shower and thunderstorm chances late Thursday through Friday night
- More active pattern setting up next week with better chances for
storms
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
No major changes needed to the forecast with conditions generally
evolving as expected. The only minor adjustments have been to dew
points which initially were too high compared to observations as
some mixing was occurring through the afternoon, but as afternoon
mixing has come to an end, dew points have gradually stabilized and
started to rise. Rain continues to remain northwest of the
forecast area, so will maintain less than 15 POPs through the rest
of the early overnight.
Fog looks unlikely towards tomorrow morning as Max RH values get to
around 85-90 percent, but if any fog does form it looks to be across
the northwestern counties along the Wabash Valley where some
localized valley fog is possible. With the mostly clear skies and
light winds, lows in the upper 40s to near 50 look reasonable, so
have not adjusted from the previous forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Surface analysis this afternoon shows strong high pressure in place
over SW OH and NE KY. Weak southeasterly surface flow was found
across Central Indiana. Southerly surface flow was in place across
the plains ahead of weak low pressure in SW KS. A weak boundary was
found stretching from western IL to northern MO and across KS toward
the previously mentioned low. GOES16 shows mainly high CI streaming
across Central Indiana and temperatures were quickly climbing toward
70. Aloft, water vapor showed mainly a zonal flow in place. A weak
upper wave was producing some rain over WI.
Tonight -
Zonal flow is expected to continue to stream across central Indiana
through at least Wednesday. Little in the way of forcing dynamics is
shown to pass during this time. Models suggest the weak boundary to
the northwest will remain in place and become more elongated,
perhaps stretching into northern Indiana overnight. Light rain was
found over IA, pushing east near this boundary. Uncertainty is
suggested with the easterly flow of this precipitation as plentiful
dry air within the lower and mid levels remains present across
Central Indiana. HRRR suggests that some of the precipitation will
drift toward Central Indiana but will dissipate upon approach.
Perhaps the only locations that could be impacted include Lafayette
and Kokomo, but confidence is low. Thus may include some very low
pops there tonight, otherwise dry weather will be expected with only
high cloud streaming aloft and lows around 50.
Wednesday -
Dry weather and warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday as the
zonal flow remains in place aloft and a stalled surface boundary
remains well northwest of Indiana. This will keep warmer, southerly
flow in place across Central Indiana along with warm air advection.
Forecast soundings and time heights suggest a dry column through the
day. Thus a mostly sunny day with highs in the upper 70s will be
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
The long term period features a stretch of above normal temperatures
with a few chances for rainfall, mainly on Friday. A more active
pattern develops next week with better chances for storms, but
continued above normal temperatures.
Thursday through Saturday...
The pattern going into the weekend resembles more of a May pattern
rather than April with above normal temperatures, increasing
humidity, and some rainfall and storm chances. The main upper jet
will be well to the north, along the US/Canadian border, with a few
weak mid level features passing through Indiana Thursday and Friday.
At the surface, lower pressure develops along the Front Range while
a warm frontal feature stretches through the Plains into the Upper
Great Lakes, placing Indiana in an area of warm and moist air
advection. A subtle mid level wave passes through Kentucky Thursday
afternoon, providing just enough lift to spark off scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Not too worried about severe weather as shear and
forcing are relatively weak, resulting in mainly single cell pop up
convection that falls apart quickly. While most locations in Central
Indiana will remain dry, best chance for an isolated shower or storm
would be along and south of the I-69 corridor.
Expect above normal temperatures Thursday near 80 degrees across
Central Indiana within the broad warm sector over the region.
Shower and storm chances ramp up early Friday morning for much of
the state as a weak area of low pressure and trailing cold front
approach from the west. A secondary mid level wave ahead of the main
system looks to spark off more widespread convection Friday morning
into early afternoon, persisting into the evening as the cold front
approaches. Long range ensemble guidance has been consistent with
keeping rainfall amounts Thursday - Friday under a half inch for
most areas, with the greatest threat at higher amounts in the
southern half of Indiana. In these weakly forced, convective
regimes, it is easy to get wide ranging rainfall amounts over short
distances based on where convection develops or if certain areas get
repeated rounds of storms. Overall, the heavy rain threat should be
relatively localized, instead of widespread as seen earlier this
month.
Rainfall and cloud cover will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler
than Thursday; however persistent warm air advection should result
in temperatures still above average for late April in the low to mid
70s. Chances of convection drop off from northwest to southeast on
Saturday as the front moves southeast. Modest cold advection will
also bring temperatures closer to normal into the 60s to low 70s.
This weekend into early next week...
High pressure traverses eastward through the upper Great Lakes this
weekend keeping conditions relatively warm and dry for Central
Indiana. Cloudy skies post front on Friday night will slowly clear
Saturday as easterly flow advects in cooler and drier air. Still
expecting temperatures near to slightly above normal on Saturday
with highs ranging from the mid 60s in the north to low 70s further
south.
A warming trend begins again on Sunday as high pressure pushes east
and ridging rebuilds over the area. Eyes turn to early next week for
the next chance for widespread rain and storms. Longer range
guidance has been consistent in showing stronger troughing digging
into the Plains Monday and Tuesday setting the stage for storm
development upstream. There are still many model discrepancies on
how this set up evolves; but confidence is increasing in the storm
threat for at least Tuesday. Lower confidence on storms Monday as
guidance tries to resolve smaller mid level features ahead of the
main system. It is too soon to determine if severe weather will be a
threat locally, however it is not out of the question. The pattern
remains active through much of next week with additional rain and
storm chances likely persisting into the day 8 through 10 timeframe.
This pattern supports continued above normal temperatures in the 70s
and 80s each day.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 646 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Impacts:
- None.
Discussion:
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with only some
passing thin cirrus aloft. Winds will remain variable at less than
7kts with a predominately southerly direction through tomorrow
evening.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...White
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...White
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
Issued by National Weather Service Lincoln IL
859 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms continue to be in the forecast
tonight, with a Marginal Risk for severe storms late this
afternoon/this evening.
- Well above normal temperatures are expected inland through
week`s end, then turning more seasonable for the weekend.
- Chances for severe storms return early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
A cluster of thunderstorms looks to move eastward through
southern portions of the forecast area late this evening, drawn
a bit farther south than expected due to a tongue of MUCAPE up
to 500 J/kg per RAP analysis. Will shift PoPs south for the
remainder of the evening to account for this. Otherwise,
forecast looks on track for tonight, with light winds developing
and mostly cloudy skies continuing.
NWS Lincoln
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Through Wednesday:
Zonal flow aloft exists across the area today, with upper level
lows across northern MN and Quebec currently. At the surface, a
warm front is lifting northeast across northern IL this
afternoon...ushering in warmer and more humid air into the
area. Expect showers and thunderstorms to move in/redevelop
across the forecast area by late afternoon. Believe the greatest
threat for storms in the Chicago metro to be from 6 pm to 8 pm
this evening. Instability (CAPE of near 1000 J/kg) and shear
(0-6 km bulk shear near 30 kts) will provide the risk for some
severe storms through this evening. The SPC currently has much
of LOT area in a Marginal Risk for tonight (except the SE).
Showers and isolated storms will be possible off and on through
the night across northern IL, with the best chance for a second
round from 3 am to 7 am.
For Wednesday, showers and storms will linger in the vicinity of
a boundary near the IL/WI border. Expect activity to be mostly
in WI, and generally, severe storms are not expected tomorrow.
However, some models have CAPEs near 1000 J/kg and deep shear at
25-30 kts, so it`s not out of the question. Currently, northern
IL is not outlooked for severe weather by the SPC. Highs
tomorrow should be in the mid to upper 70s inland.
Knutsvig
Wednesday Night through Tuesday:
Warm temps will continue through the week with the next
weather-maker coming on Friday. Showers and isolated storms are
generally expected, with severe storms not expected currently.
After a return to cooler temperatures over the weekend, expect a
chance for severe storms possibly as early as Monday.
Knutsvig
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Key Aviation Messages for the current TAF period:
- Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms through
Wednesday morning
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually starting to move in
from the west along a west-to-east frontal boundary that becomes
quasi-stationary through the TAF period. Hi-res guidance
continues to depict periods of showers and storms through the
TAF window, but that also means that there will be breaks in
precip as well which lowers confidence in the exact timing at
any given shower/storm. The window for thunder was kept as a
PROB30 in the TAFs for the current expectations for storms this
evening as well as again tomorrow morning with any adjustments
to timing happening tactically. Showers may linger into the
afternoon, but generally be on a downward trend as the axis of
better moisture shifts north.
Winds remain southwest through the night as gusts around 20
knots slowly diminish after sunset. Winds will remain around 10
knots through the day on Wednesday. They are expected to be
mostly out of the south-southeast, though there could be a brief
window where they flip to the southwest in the afternoon.
DK/NWS Chicago
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
618 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions across southwest MN through this
afternoon.
- Wet weather returns to the Upper Midwest Thursday and then again
early next week.
- Generally above normal in the extended period with highs in the
60s and 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
SHORT TERM/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER... Sunny and clear across the
southern half of Minnesota this afternoon, as captured on GOES-
East visible satellite. Afternoon highs are on track to reach
the upper 60s/near 70 degrees across much of the area. The
exception looks to be near Barron, Chippewa, and Rusk counties
in Wisconsin where lingering cloud cover has limited heating.
For most, the forecast is nice and tame, however we are keeping
an eye on the conditions across south/west MN, where fire
weather conditions will remain elevated this afternoon. RH`s
have dropped below 30 percent across western MN, with winds
gusting 25-30 mph. RAP forecast soundings indicate that higher
instantaneous gusts, near 35 mph, remain possible given the
combination of efficient mixing to 5-7k feet and the presence of
a 700mb jetstreak aloft. It`s possible that RH`s dip further,
say between 20-25 percent in isolated locations through the late
afternoon. A Special Weather Statement for elevated fire
weather conditions continues through early evening.
NEXT RAIN CHANCES...Nice weather this evening will translate over to
a gorgeous Wednesday across much of the region. Afternoon highs are
once again forecast to climb into the upper 60s/near 70 for most
locations, though it will be slightly cooler northwest of Stearns
county in central MN. Of course, it wouldn`t fit the theme of the
current unsettled pattern to remain dry for more than a day or two!
Warm advection driven showers and a few thunderstorms are possible
across southern Minnesota tomorrow night into Thursday morning, with
the highest chances along I-90. More significant chances (60-80%)
for widespread rain will arrive Thursday afternoon and evening, as
an impulse within the large scale southwesterly flow spawns a
surface low over the eastern Great Plains. Guidance continues to
display the consensus surface low track from roughly central Iowa
east towards the Great Lakes. Southern MN/western WI will be north
of the surface low, in a region favored for soaking rainfall,
supported by healthy moisture advection of PWATs in excess of 1
inch. While the ingredients are in place for widespread rain, a
trailing feature in the upper flow will slide over the Dakotas
Thursday afternoon. This wave will suppress the forcing over eastern
MN/western WI, which unfortunately is likely going to set the stage
for another notable precipitation gradient across the area (more
rain in eastern MN/western WI, little to no rain across western MN).
WPC`s latest QPF outlook displays the potential for 0.75-1" of rain
along and east of a line from Martin Co. (MN) to Dunn Co. (WI).
Amounts then drop-off a few tenths of an inch with each tier of
counties northwest. Should trends continue, fire weather concerns
would continue to remain elevated across western MN due to the
persistence of dry fuels. As the midnight shift discussed, this
could also mean further degradation in the drought monitor across
western MN.
WEEKEND AND BEYOND...Wet weather moves out of the picture to end the
work week and open the weekend. High pressure will keep things dry
and quiet Friday and Saturday, with highs in the upper 50s (Friday)
climbing into the mid 60s (Saturday). Should be good to go with any
outdoor plans! By Sunday, an expansive upper ridge will amplify over
the northern CONUS in response to a trough digging in across the
southwestern CONUS. Strong southwesterly flow will transport warmer
air into the region for Sunday (upper 60s) and Monday (upper 70s!).
The trough is forecast to spawn a surface low across the northern
Plains that will track from the Dakotas northeast into southern
Ontario by Tuesday. Should this track remain relatively steady over
the coming days, much of our forecast area will be in the "warm
sector" to the southeast of the surface low. In this scenario,
widespread soaking rains would develop across northern MN, leaving
southern MN/western WI in a region favored for shower/thunderstorm
development. It`s too soon to talk specifics with regards to
severe weather hazards, however CSU/NCAR ML severe weather
probabilities continue to trend upward for Monday. In addition,
SPC circled a large portion of southern MN in the Day 7
outlook, given that the pattern is historically favorable for
the development of severe thunderstorms. In short, stay tuned!
We will have more to share over the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025
Breezy westerly winds expected to become light and variable
after sunset across all sites. Overall flight categories will
remain in VFR this period. Some cloud cover is expected to
develop as another wave approaches but does not appear to be too
much of concern. Model guidance did have some indications of
scattered -SHRA accompanying this wave but with confidence
below 20 percent, decided against including precip mentions at
this time. Winds will veer to the NW tomorrow morning near 10kts
after 14-15 timeframe.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...-SHRA/MVFR likely, mainly P.M. Wind NE 10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind N 10-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...Dunleavy
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
441 PM MST Tue Apr 22 2025
.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and generally tranquil conditions will persist over the next few
days with temperatures running near to slightly above seasonal
values. A dry weather system will move off the Eastern Pacific later
this week, bringing breezy to locally windy conditions along with a
cooldown with temperatures falling below seasonal normals into
the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
500mb RAP analysis reveals weak quasi-zonal flow stretched out
across much of the Great Basin, resulting in a fairly quiet pattern
for the region. With the expectation that this pattern will not vary
much over the next few days, very little day-to-day changes will
take place at least through the middle of the week with dry
conditions prevailing and lower desert highs ranging in the upper
80s to lower 90s. Global models show a very weak disturbance moving
through the western CONUS through the middle of the week, but the
only noticeable impact with this would be the presence of breezy to
locally windy conditions in the typical spots of Western Imperial
County.
Ensembles have come into a bit more agreement regarding the
stronger area of low pressure later this week compared to 24
hours ago. Some subtle differences remain, mainly in the timing,
exact track, and amplification, but it appears that the models
have honed in on an evolution that takes the center of this system
across the Southern Great Basin by Sunday. Though this system
appears to be dry, translating to essentially zero rain chances,
it will not be without its noticeable impacts on regional
conditions. Associated height anomalies approaching 1.5-2 standard
deviations below normal vs. climatology will translate to a
decent cooling trend heading into this weekend. Even though NBM
MaxT spread remains around five degrees during the weekend
timeframe, this does not degrade the idea that regionwide cooling
temperatures are likely, with many areas potentially falling 5-10
degrees below normal for late April. The other associated impact
will be an increase in winds during much the weekend, particularly
during the afternoon and evening hours, thanks to an enhancement
of the thermal and pressure gradients. The magnitude of the winds
will be largely dependent on the track of the system, but early
indication are that gusts upwards of 25-35 mph may be common, with
advisory level gusts >=40 mph possible for the usually windy
spots of Southeast California and the Arizona high terrain. We are
several days from this low moving onshore so forecast detail
could certainly change, but if trends continue in the direction
they are, wind products may be needed later this week. Regardless
of if winds do reach advisory thresholds, the relatively warm and
dry airmass in place, combined with the enhanced winds, will
result in periods of elevated, to potentially critical fire
weather conditions at times.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2340Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns under clear skies can be expected
throughout the TAF period. The overall wind pattern will continue
to exhibit the typical diurnal tendencies with overall speeds aob
10 kts. There will likely be periods of light variability to even
calm conditions, especially during the diurnal transition.
Southerly winds are expected for a few hours mid to late morning
Wednesday at the Phoenix terminals before veering toward a W/SW
component. Breeziness will pick up around the region heading into
tomorrow afternoon with gusts to around 20 kts possible at times.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and tranquil weather conditions will persist through much of
the remainder of the workweek, with slightly above normal
temperatures. MinRH values each day will bottom out near 10%
areawide with poor to fair overnight recoveries. Fairly light and
diurnally driven winds are expected through at least Thursday,
with some afternoon upslope breeziness. Winds are likely to
increase by the end of the week into this weekend as an upper
level low pressure system moves into the western United States.
This may lead to locally elevated fire weather conditions,
particularly for the high terrain east of Phoenix during the
weekend, though temperatures will cool to slightly below normal.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RW
AVIATION...Smith/Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Whittock
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
826 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will approach from the north overnight
tonight, then move through the Carolinas on Wednesday. The front
will stall and weaken over the Savannah Basin through the end of the
work week, while high pressure will otherwise build across and
offshore the middle Atlantic.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 826 PM Tuesday...
Convection has really weakened and dissipated in the last hour or
two. The combination of the eastward progressing outflow from
earlier storms and loss of daytime heating are likely contributing
factors in the weakening trend of storms. The outflow from earlier
convection lies along the central Coastal Plain into the eastern
Sandhills, with the sea-breeze boundary currently colliding with the
outflow. Convection was largely located over the Sandhills to
Coastal Plain. Surface analysis reveals the cold front is loosely
draped to our northwest, across northwest and north-central VA, with
1020 mb high pressure over the lower OH valley. Had to adjust PoPs
quite a bit given the CAMs were about 2-3 hours slow compared to
reality. A few more hours of isolated to scattered storms are
possible over the Sandhills to central Coastal Plain, but outside of
that we should turn very quiet with limited shower chances through
late evening to the early overnight hours with stability behind the
outflow and mid-level energy pushing toward eastern NC. Some of the
latest runs of the HRRR suggest additional isolated or scattered
showers or storms could redevelop as the backdoor front slides south
from the north and east, affecting areas north and east of the
Triangle. The favored areas may end up being the northern to central
Coastal Plain, though confidence is low on coverage. But given
weakly unstable and the convergence along/ahead of the front, this
seems plausible. Have low-end chance PoPs for this overnight, in
which isolated storms could reach the southern Coastal Plain by
daybreak as the front continues to slide southward. Though the
signal is not very strong in the guidance, cannot rule out some
patchy fog, mainly along/south of US-64 ahead of the southward
moving front. Expect lows ranging from the upper 50s N and W to the
low to mid 60s in the SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...
The cold front will be moving southward through the region Wednesday
morning before stalling to our south. Throughout the day, isolated
to scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are possible with
the front. PWATs are still showing values around 1.4-1.5 inches
across the region, therefore as diurnal heating increases throughout
the afternoon, chances of convection will increase. The greatest
chances of showers or storms developing is to the south where the
greatest forcing from the stalled front will be located. CAMs are
showing very little shower activity across the region, so kept the
region in slight chance to chance PoPs, with the greatest
probabilities to the south. The chance of any showers being
severe is currently low as shear and instability should be weak.
With the increased cloud cover and cold fropa, high temperatures
should be near to slightly above normal, or in the mid 70s to around
80. Minimum temperatures should be in the mid 50s in the northeast
to the low 60s in the south.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...
* Showers and potential thunderstorms are expected everyday through
Thursday
The cold front should stay stalled to our south on Thursday before
moving north through the region on Friday as a warm front. The
chance of showers with the potential of embedded thunderstorms
continues on Thursday and Friday where the frontal boundary lines up
with diurnal heating and mid-level perturbations in the flow. Thus,
rain and storm chances are maximized in the afternoon and evening
each day. Rain chances will continue Saturday afternoon through
evening, as another cold front approaches the region from the west.
Maximum temperatures Thursday through Saturday should be about 5
degrees above normal on average, with highs generally expected in
the mid 70s to low 80s. The warmest day should be on Saturday with
temperatures in the mid 80s in the south. Minimum temperatures
should be about 10-15 degrees above normal, with lows in the upper
50s to low 60s nightly through Saturday night.
The cold front should move through the region early Sunday morning,
dropping high temperatures into the low to mid 70s Sunday afternoon,
with lows dropping into the mid 40s to low 50s. Monday and Tuesday
should both warm as a surface high builds behind the front.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 815 PM Tuesday...
Scattered showers are expected to continue tonight. There may be
some brief MVFR conditions with a shower. Otherwise, a backdoor cold
front and following NE flow will then result in a chance of MVFR
ceilings late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Additional
scattered showers are expected, mainly in the afternoon.
Outlook: NE flow behind a backdoor cold front will result in periods
of mainly MVFR ceilings through Fri, with a chance of IFR ones
during the morning Thu and Fri. The nely flow will also shift
rain/thunder chances south to mainly FAY Wed-Thu, then area-wide
ahead of and along the next cold front Fri-Sat.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
April 22:
KGSO: 63/1967
KRDU: 66/1909
KFAY: 64/1963
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren/MWS
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...PWB/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH