Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/22/25
Differences in Tuesday`s forecast continue forecast discrepancies
for Wednesday`s storms. Separation to the best synoptic forcing
well to the south limits northerly extent and speed of lifting
quasi-stationary/warm surface front, keeping best instability
again to our south. The aforementioned near perpendicular
orientation of low level moisture will initiate elevated storms
along and north of the surface boundary, where ever it decides
to lie. Further challenges surround drier, colder air sagging
south and mesoscale cold pool reinforcement. Ensemble members do
build sufficient instability through southern half of the
forecast area. Question will be amount of diurnal heating to
provide sufficient lifting.
Precipitation Through Thursday:
Eventually the surface low is expected to lift northeast along
the stationary boundary, perpetuating heavy rain and storm
potential through Thursday. Long term global ensemble confidence
suggests between 1" and 2" of total rainfall through the end of
the work week. Flooding concerns hard to nail down at the
current forecast hour given the convective nature highly
dependent on exact location of the fluctuating frontal boundary.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Primary concern remains impending showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms which will sweep east across the region after 06z.
Confidence in shower occurrence at RST/LSE remains high enough
for definite mentions and have moved up start times an hour
while narrowing window with impacts. Similar to previous TAF,
still enough potential for thunder to carry PROB30 mentions.
Increase in moisture should cause MVFR ceilings to occur around
sunrise but these will quickly give way to VFR mid-morning, with
low impact conditions expected for the remainder of the period.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Ferguson
DISCUSSION...JAR/Zapotocny
AVIATION...Ferguson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
725 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively warm and dry conditions continue through midday
Tuesday. The next chance for rain then comes Tuesday evening as
an approaching cold front edges closer to the region, which is
expected to stall out across the area for the mid to late week
period, bringing possible rain chances each day for the
remainder of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):
- Dry with above normal temperatures continue tonight.
After another day of highs in the mid 80s, we`re expecting
another night of above normal lows as we only drop into the
lower to mid 60s overnight. This is due to the persistent upper
ridge and off shore surface high pressure along with cloud cover
streaming over the area. Much like the past couple of nights,
there is potential for patchy river fog or stratus to develop
near daybreak, but don`t expect it to last long if it does form.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
- Cold front slowly moves in from the northwest Tuesday,
bringing a chance of showers and storms during the evening
hours mainly.
- Diurnal shower/storm chances continue Wednesday afternoon and
evening as front becomes more diffuse over the CWA.
A much more active period appears on tap for the short term
period as a cold front works its way into the area and stalls.
Guidance is a bit more aggressive and compact with an
approaching shortwave from the southwest, with HRRR and REFS
guidance trending towards this solution over the last 24 hours
or so. Expectation is that Tuesday should begin with
southwesterly flow at the surface, continuing the gradual
moisture increase that we have seen over the last several days.
However, low-level moisture doesn`t look quite robust enough to
support significant afternoon destabilization just yet, with
most guidance showing <1000 j/kg of MLCAPE and a very well-mixed
boundary layer. Additionally, while the shortwave is a bit more
defined than it was yesterday, the front is still expected to be
well to the north of most of the forecast area through the day.
Both the HRRR and experimental RRFS are forecasting convection
to initiate in the foothills of the Appalachians and then work
eastward through the day. Outflows from this are likely to be
the force that initiates convection across the north. The best
chances for storms appear to be along and north of I20/I26.
Soundings do indicate that 0-6 km shear may be on the order of
30ish knots, which would be enough to organize convection into
multi-cell clusters so we`ll need to watch out for strong
storms. Highs look to end up in the mid to upper 80s tomorrow.
As the evening goes along, some more convection may fire up in
the south and eastern FA as the sea-breeze pushes in. Beyond
that, it looks like things should quiet down with lows in the
low to mid 60s.
On Wednesday, a solid chance for widespread showers and
thunderstorms will setup. The front will settle somewhere near
the northern FA, likely aided by outflow from convection on
Tuesday. Flow aloft looks like it will begin to weaken as
heights relax and return closer to normal. Weak shortwaves in
the southwesterly flow are forecast to approach a warm and
increasingly moisture rich atmosphere. Guidance is bullish with
forecast CAPE, with ensembles generally giving a range of
1000-2000 j/kg developing by early afternoon across the area.
Mean mixing ratios look to remain around 10-11 g/kg, helping
keep the boundary layer less mixed & allowing more CAPE to
develop. As such, numerous thunderstorms are likely on
Wednesday afternoon. In general, the setup for strong to severe
weather is worse on Wednesday from a wind shear perspective, as
forecast soundings reveal an environment that supports pulse or
low-end multi-cell clusters. So heavy rainfall and lightning are
the likely threats. Highs should more muted than the previous
days, especially if convection gets going in the early afternoon
hours. Look for highs in the low to mid 80s for most. Convection
is expected to gradually wane overnight, with lows in the low
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):
- The diffuse frontal boundary could bring more showers and
thunderstorm chances Thursday and Friday.
- More robust cold front nears region Saturday.
- Temperatures look to remain above normal through the period.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected on
Thursday afternoon as the diffuse front hangs around the region.
Zonal flow aloft will promote the continued passage of weak
shortwaves into the region, especially on Thursday, with
guidance showing a relatively defined shortwave approaching
Thursday afternoon. The airmass shouldn`t change too much, with
another afternoon of CAPE values near or exceeding 1000 j/kg
across the area. This favors another day of high rain chances,
with heavy rain and lightning again expected to be the primary
threats in thunderstorms. By this point, ensemble guidance is
forecasting PWs of near 1.5", which makes sense given profiles
characterized by long skinny CAPE. So the thunderstorms should
be efficient rain makers. Highs are likely to be in the low to
mid 80s again, potentially muted again if convection begins
shortly after midday. Thereafter, the diffuse front near the
area is expected to either dissipate or shift northward on
Friday ahead of an approaching cold front for Saturday. Will
need to watch trends with this as the front will likely have
access to a solid thermodynamic environment, so if we have even
marginal wind shear, we could have problems with strong-severe
convection Saturday afternoon. Drier air looks to push in behind
the front on Sunday and Monday as high pressure settles into the
eastern CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
High clouds continue to pour in on the west side of the upper
ridge. Satellite imagery implies that there will be a bit of a
break in the cirriform clouds tonight, but it won`t last too
long. Closer to the surface, Not much different than the last
couple of nights, except that we may keep a little bit of wind
all night with a decent low level jet after midnight.
Only restrictions expected right now will be at the usual fog-
prone OGB terminal. I can`t totally rule it out at AGS, either,
but chances seem low enough for any true impacts to keep out to
the TAF.
It is also possible that there may be some scattered showers and
thunderstorm s very late in the TAF period at OGB as the sea
breeze moves inland, but its too far out in the TAF period to
add in low chance items yet.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A front approaches the region
Tuesday and Wednesday supporting potential restrictions and
showers/thunderstorms.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1159 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler Tuesday, but temps back up into the 70s Wednesday-Friday.
- Widespread rain expected to return for Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
A low pressure system exits central Ontario into western Quebec
tonight which ushers in a cooler airmass for the terminals into
Tuesday. The coldest air will generally remain over northern
Michigan, but sufficient cooling has supported the development of a
stratocumulus deck this evening. Expectation is that cloud bases
still hold in the low-end VFR range a bit longer before scattering
out early Tuesday morning. The surface pressure gradient further
relaxes with time tonight as the rate of improvement is dictated by
the departure speed of the surface low. Surface high pressure builds
into the Ohio Valley from the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday
promoting a drier column locally with weaker west-southwest winds.
Mid-level moisture and resulting clouds spill downstream into Lower
Michigan from The Plains Tuesday evening as surface flow backs
southerly, due to the eastward translation of Ohio Valley ridging.
.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* High for ceiling at or below 5000 feet until approximately 08Z
tonight, then low for the rest of the morning hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
DISCUSSION...
Mature low pressure (~1000 mb) system exiting northeast of the
northern Great Lakes this evening. Southwest wind gusts behind the
fropa did peak out in the 40-50 mph range across southeast Michigan,
especially and including south of M-59, as max temperatures reached
into upper 60s to mid 70s. Still 45-50 knots of flow at the 850 MB
level across the northern half of the CWA, and will thus maintain the
wind advisory for now, although gusts to 45 mph will likely be
sporadic. The northern tip of the Thumb region finally looks to get
into the action and see the more frequent/peak winds as winds veer
around to the west. Winds to diminish this evening and tonight, but
winds still holding around 10 mph toward sunrise Tuesday. Thus, even
with clouds slowly dissipating, should not have to worry about frost
as temps dip into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.
More disorganized, but abundant upper level PV/energy back across
the northern Rockies, which will spin up a weak low/reflection in
the Upper Mississippi River Valley/Midwest come Tuesday. Surface
frontal boundary/increasing moisture looks to reach the southern
Michigan border toward 00z Wednesday, and there may be enough mid
level instability to allow for showers and even an isolated
thunderstorm survive the trip into southeast Michigan by Tuesday
evening. Mid level lapse rates are steep, greater than 7 C/km.
However, the low instability (Mucapes ~1000 J/kg) reservoir should
mostly hold over the Western Great Lakes through Tuesday night. Still,
12z HRRR suggests west to east training of convective activity is
possible with the modest westerly low level jet.
Modest sfc-850 MB based instability/cape developing during Wednesday
south of I-69 may touch off scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms
with weak low level convergence, leftover frontal boundary. However,
modest height rises (500 MB heights of 573+ DAM) and some semblance
of 500 MB ridge axis building over the Central Great Lakes,
promoting general subsidence, leads to low confidence. NBM pops look
ok with mostly slight chance (15-25).
Further height rises for Thursday, but potential shortwave coming
out of the Midwest to end the work week, merging with a northern
stream trough tracking out of south Central Canada. Cyclogensis
taking place over the Western Ohio Valley by Friday should support
widespread rain overspreading southeast Michigan, with the low on
pace to exit east on Saturday. Any residual light rain ending early
in the morning, with dry conditions then in place for the rest of
the weekend, per 12z Euro.
MARINE...
Shallow mixing depths in the wake of a cold front will continue to
interact with a shallow yet strong wind field aloft, bringing gusts
to gales for the majority of the nearshore zones outside of western
Lake Erie. Some sporadic gusts to gales remain possible for western
Lake Erie, but latest observations preclude the issuance of any
short-fused warning product, with expectation that gales for all
nearshore zones diminish by late this evening. For Lake Huron,
passage of a low pressure system will veer wind direction from the
west with cooler air filtering in aloft, which will then pivot the
gale threat to the northern third of Lake Huron overnight. A ridge
of high pressure will build in through Tuesday afternoon,
diminishing wind speeds through the day tomorrow. Light winds then
continue through the midweek period as the pressure gradient remains
weak.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ361-362.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ421-422-441>443.
Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
LCZ460.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....KGK
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......AM
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
700 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Weather pattern to remain active, with additional rain chances
tonight, Thursday, and early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...Any lingering precipitation across western
Wisconsin had concluded as of midday. Cloud cover associated with
the departing weather system continues to clear from west to east,
with sunny skies over west/central Minnesota captured on GOES-East
visible satellite. The western extent of the cloud deck will serve
as the dividing line for this afternoon`s high temperature gradient.
Highs are on track to reach the mid 60s across western Minnesota,
though will likely struggle to break out of the low 50s across
portions of western Wisconsin. Surface ridge will keep things
clear and quiet through early evening, however the advance of a
compact surface low over the Dakotas will push a warm front
across the region tonight. Supported by modest mid-level flow,
HREF`s CAM paintball ensemble captures an arc of scattered
showers (and perhaps a few thunderstorms) developing across
western Minnesota after sunset. This activity will move from
west to east overnight, likely persisting into the early morning
commute across western Wisconsin. Given that the low-level jet
axis is forecast to be positioned across central Iowa, there are
some questions about how widespread this nocturnal convection
will be locally. Nonetheless, a few hundredths to a tenth of two
of precipitation will be possible (highest amounts will be
localized).
TUESDAY...A swift mid-level jetstreak will push the nocturnal
convection eastward through early tomorrow morning. Skies will again
clear from west to east, allowing for sunshine during the afternoon.
This should set the stage for relatively efficient mixing, which may
mean the NBM`s wind forecast is currently underdone. For reference,
the 15z RAP displayed widespread gusts upwards of 25 knots (mixing
to ~5k feet) tomorrow afternoon. This process should yield a mild
afternoon, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s across much of
the region (cooler in western WI). However, we`ll need to keep an
eye on the degree of mixing across western MN (where little to no
rain fell Sunday night) as RH`s are forecast to drop to between 25-
35%. For now, our wind forecast suggests that fire weather concerns
are only "elevated" tomorrow afternoon. However, should conditions
mix in the manner the RAP suggests, fire weather concerns may
increase across south/west MN.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK...As has been the trend with previous
forecasts, Wednesday continues to look like a nice day with highs in
the upper 60s and lower 70s. However, the 12z guidance has trended
in a slightly wetter direction compared to previous forecasts. The
reason for this trend is tied warm advection beneath large scale
zonal flow (from southwest to northeast) across the central CONUS.
It still appears that much of Wednesday will be dry for I-94 and
north, however warm advection driven showers/storms could impact
southern MN Wednesday afternoon/evening. NBM has introduced 30-40%
PoPs across this portion of the forecast area to reflect these
chances. The advance of a shortwave trough within the zonal flow
will send a surface low through the Midwest Thursday into Friday.
Minnesota/Wisconsin will be on the northern side of the system, so
not expecting much of a severe weather threat, though ensembles hint
that this could be another round of soaking rainfall across the
region. As stated by the overnight shift, each deterministic and
ensemble counterpart feature variance in rainfall expectations from
Wednesday PM - early Friday, though baseline expectations between
0.25-0.5" seem reasonable. Higher amounts (closer to an inch)
certainly appear possible, but confidence is too low to identify
favored locations at this time.
EXTENDED PERIOD...Friday is trending drier and slightly cooler
following the departure of Thursday`s rainfall. Breezy northerly
winds will keep highs in the upper 50s/near 60. Saturday looks dry
and slightly warmer, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Perhaps it`s
not much of a surprise that our unsettled pattern will send another
round of wet weather into the Upper Midwest to close the weekend.
This time the culprit will be the advance of a longwave trough set
to come ashore over the weekend. Global guidance is already in
fairly good agreement with the development of widespread precipitation
across the region ahead of the advancing trough, though there are
timing difference to resolve. Nearly all Grand Ensemble members show
precipitation between Sunday PM-Tuesday AM, so confidence in
measurable precipitation during this timeframe is already high
(NBM already has PoPs > 60%). On another note...while it is too
soon to discuss specifics with regards to severe weather potential
next week, both the CSU/NSSL ML highlight lower end severe probs
creeping into the Upper Midwest in advance of the aforementioned
trough.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Clouds will increase this evening with showers and a few
thunderstorms tracking east across the region overnight and
early Tuesday. MVFR cigs are possible toward the tail end of the
showers and then a few hours thereafter. Cigs will rise quickly
Tuesday and clear in the afternoon. Winds will shift southeast
this evening, then veer west Tuesday with some gusts in the 20s
across MN.
KMSP...No concerns this evening, but showers and lowering cigs
are expected overnight. TS cannot be ruled out, but confidence
is still low enough at any given location to include in the TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA/MVFR overnight. Wind variable around 5
kts.
THU...-SHRA/MVFR likely, mainly P.M. Wind NE 10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind N 10-15 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...Borghoff
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
838 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Storms have been struggling to develop over the region this
evening. Off and on showers will continue overnight, although
there may be a lull in many places until around midnight or so.
Hi-res guidance shows develop overnight will remain weak. A few
rumbles of thunder will be possible with dew points in the 60s for
most of the Tennessee Valley. The cold front is currently over
Central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. Dew points were nudged up a
bit during the evening update and POPs were refined to show
activity picking up after midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Key Messages:
1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms move through tonight. A few
strong to marginally severe storms are possible during the early
evening hours, mainly south of I-40. Damaging winds and small hail
are the main threats.
2. Likely showers and storms across the southern TN valley,
southwest NC, and east TN mountains on Tuesday. Central valley and
areas further north will be drier.
Discussion:
A cold front is currently to our west across west Tennessee. Showers
and a few storms are ongoing ahead of the front across middle TN.
These showers and storms will progress eastward and into our area
from late this afternoon and through the overnight hours. Latest
analysis from the SPC meso page doesn`t show much instability
across our area, only a few hundred joules of CAPE at best. Future
RAP analysis projects MLCAPES of around 500 J/kg across the
southern TN valley later this afternoon and only a few hundred
joules elsewhere. This lines up well with the Day 1 marginal
outlook. If it weren`t for the 30 to 40 kts of effective shear in
place, we wouldn`t even be having the discussion of strong storms.
Though because of the shear, a few strong storms are still
possible. The main threats will be damaging winds and small hail
through mid evening.
Then, showers and storms become more isolated as the sun sets due to
loss of heating. From sunset through midnight we can expect a lull
in activity. Showers and storms begin to reenter the southern TN
valley and southwest NC early tomorrow morning. Then, showers and
storms progress northeast along the cold front that is draped
across the east TN mountains. These areas will see the highest POPs
on Tuesday compared to areas north of the cold front.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Key Messages:
1. West to southwest flow aloft most of this week. Warm temperatures
continue this week with good chances for showers and storms each day
through Saturday. Best chances late Wednesday, Thursday and Friday
night into Saturday.
2. Sunday and Monday ridging aloft builds in from the south. Higher
pressure at the surface too will bring drier conditions. Still could
see an isolated shower or storm.
Discussion:
A near zonal flow will be the main weather feature this week, with
small changes in the flow helping to produce lift to develop
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. A weak
frontal system moving in tonight will have washed out or moved south
by Tuesday evening with rain chance decreasing tomorrow night.
Wednesday the weak frontal system is forecast to drift back north
during the day with categorical rain chances southeast and over the
east Tennessee Mountains decreasing later Wednesday evening. Then
after Wednesday evening the next best chance for scattered showers
and thunderstorms is a shortwave that both the models bring through
the region Thursday. With the old frontal boundary from today still
around it will provide the lift to help set off widespread showers
Thursday with chances for some thunderstorms depending on the timing
during the day. Lightning will be the main hazard for those planning
outside activities this week. Strongest storms will likely be late
afternoon and early evening.
Later Thursday night and Friday the boundary pulls north with a
surface low over Iowa moving towards the Great Lakes. This next
surface Low and associated front will move through Saturday and
bring another good chance for convection Friday night and Saturday.
The front pushes through with a large surface high building south
from the Great Lakes and southern Canada Sunday and then shifting
east Monday. Temperatures overall will stay mild with highs in the
70s and 80s. Thursday and Saturday will be the coolest days with
more rain and clouds Thursday and then with rain ahead of the front
Saturday, mostly in the 70s. Night time temperatures will be
noticeably cooler Sunday and Monday from the two previous
mornings with the drier air behind the front and drop into the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025
Showers will continue off and on through at least tomorrow
morning. Activity will become more isolated in the Tennessee
Valley by tomorrow afternoon. Thunder chances are fairly low with
the best chance tomorrow afternoon. MVFR CIGs and at times vis
are likely through tomorrow morning with VFR conditions returning
tomorrow afternoon. Light winds will become more northwesterly
tomorrow as a cold front moves through.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 75 61 80 / 70 80 40 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 73 58 79 / 60 60 40 70
Oak Ridge, TN 60 76 57 79 / 40 50 30 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 73 52 77 / 60 50 30 70
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....TD
AVIATION...McD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
637 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers, perhaps with a few embedded thunderstorms,
will bring gusty winds to northeast NE this evening.
- There will be a few showers possible on Tuesday, with a strong
to severe storm or two possible in southwest east NE and
southwest IA by evening.
- Expect several additional chances for thunderstorms Wednesday
through Friday, and again by late Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
It`s been a beautiful day with sunny skies and midday
temperatures mostly in the 60s. There st still a frontal
boundary that will move into northeast NE this evening, and then
slowly settle southward through the area tonight, and then
stall south of I80 on Tuesday. This front could bring showers
and thunderstorms to areas to northeast NE this evening, with
small chances along/south of I80 overnight, but a much better
chance that it remains dry. The severe weather threat looks
low in northeast NE, but the showers may still bring gusty
winds.
There could be lingering spotty showers along the frontal
boundary Tuesday morning, and with the front stalled in
southeast NE and southwest IA Tuesday afternoon and evening,
there`s an additional chance of thunderstorms along it. SPC
expanded the marginal risk for severe storms to accommodate the
stalled boundary. The HRRR would keep storms in southwest IA,
but the Nam Nest is a little more robust with potential
convection along the KS/NE border through the evening. And then
additional spotty showers will be possible after midnight into
Wednesday morning, either in proximity to the front, or moving
in from the west. High temperatures Tuesday will provide another
spectacular day with highs in the 70s.
The front may lift back northward on Wednesday, which will
provide focus for showers and thunderstorms to become likely
Wednesday afternoon into the evening. SPC focuses the severe
threat farther east across the western High Plains. However, a
warm front in the vicinity with convection possible along the
east west front could still lead to severe storm chances, if
not potentially heavy rain, so we`ll be watching for that. And
that east/west line of storms could also linger into the
overnight hours. The ECMWF is a little farther south with the
frontal boundary, so the exact latitudinal placement is yet to
be determined.
Rain chances could continue Thursday into early Friday morning
as another frontal boundary pushes in to the area, but rain
chances may be tapering off during the day Friday into Saturday.
The front cools highs back into the 60s for Friday and Saturday.
But another wave coming out of the Rockies could bring more rain
chances Saturday into Sunday, but then ending by Monday.
It`s nice to the see the Spring rainy pattern return. We need
the moisture.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025
A cold front is working its way into northeast Nebraska,
bringing a line of showers, gusty winds, and a few rumbles of
thunder. Expect showers to make it to KOFK within the next hour
or two, and reach KOMA by around 05Z this evening. The line is
less likely to hold together as it moves towards KLNK, but a
spotty shower or storm can`t be completely ruled out. LLWS is
likely over southeast Nebraska and into southwest Iowa for a few
hours tonight, 05-10Z at KOMA and 03-06Z at KLNK. Winds will
eventually turn to the north behind the front Tuesday morning.
Another round of storms is expected to develop Tuesday evening,
but should remain southeast of the TAF sites.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...KG