Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/19/25
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
806 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 754 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025
- Warm and windy conditions with high fire danger return to much
of central and eastern NM today, with more blowing dust possible
across south central and southeast areas.
- Colder with precipitation chances favoring western and northern
areas late today through Saturday evening as a storm system
moves across the state. Moderate travel impacts are likely in
the northern mountains. Late season freezing temperatures may
impact portions of central and eastern New Mexico late Saturday
night into Sunday morning.
- Warmer and drier weather returns early next week with the
potential for a few thunderstorms near the TX border.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 754 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025
The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded to the Gallup area for
the rest of tonight, as well as the Sandia/Manzano Mts beginning
Saturday morning. NMDOT webcams and local emergency mgmt confirm
snow is sticking to elevated and grassy surfaces around Gallup
with up to 3" already. Roads may become slushy and slick on
bridges and overpasses overnight. The backdoor cold front has
made it to Las Vegas and west of Tucumcari this evening while the
Pacific cold front has moved thru the ABQ metro area. These two
cold fronts will merge along the central mt chain and RGV Saturday
morning while an upper level low slides east just south of the
I-40 corridor. Rain and high terrain snow will blossom across
central NM Saturday morning and the latest HRRR centers heavier
QPF over the Sandia/Manzano Mts as the low pivots south of the
area. Temperature profiles are marginally cold and recent warm
temps will likely limit accums to grassy and elevated surfaces in
the Sandia/Manzano Mts. This band may continue into the evening
within central NM before spreading east as rain over eastern NM.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025
Three different airmasses are currently sharing New Mexico, with a
winter storm system entering the Four Corners, a backdoor cold front
in the northeast, and warm southwesterly flow over south-central
areas. The winter system will continue trudging across the state on
Saturday, bringing increased chances of precipitation and much
colder temperatures throughout the region. Several inches of
snowfall for the northern mountains will create minor and localized
moderate winter weather impacts. The system exits the region on
Sunday with conditions remaining drier and warmer to begin the next
week. Some Gulf moisture will seep its way into eastern New Mexico
during the middle of the week, increasing chances for afternoon
thunderstorms for areas along the Texas border.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 326 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025
It`s quite an interesting weather set-up across central and northern
New Mexico today. There are three distinct airmasses present across
the state as of this afternoon. Dry southwest winds across south-
central and southeastern New Mexico have brought plumes of elevated
blowing dust from northern Mexico and southern New Mexico, but no
significant visibility reductions have been observed in the CWA thus
far today. A backdoor front is draped across the northeastern potion
of the state, keeping temperatures cooler than expected this
afternoon in locations such as Clayton and Tucumcari. And lastly, a
potent late season winter storm is entering from the northwest this
afternoon, bringing much cooler temperatures and rain/snow showers.
A frontogenetical band of precipitation extends from around
Flagstaff into the Gallup area and this band will continue to
intensify over the next few hours. This band will slowly move off to
the east overnight and will bring moderate to heavy snowfall rates
to portions of far western NM. The NBM has low snow accumulations
there (around 1-3") however the HREF 50th percentile suggests the
Gallup area could get 3-5", with the 90th percentile showing 6-8".
Confidence was not quite high enough to add this area to the Winter
Weather Advisory given that marginal temperatures could limit
impacts. This will be a target of opportunity for additional
forecast updates.
The main swath of precipitation will move into central NM early
tomorrow morning at the same time that a backdoor cold front pushes
in from the east. Briefly gusty winds may develop in east
Albuquerque early tomorrow morning, but confidence is low given very
wide forecast spread. A convergence zone should develop somewhere in
central NM tomorrow, along the leading edge of the front, inducing
frontogenesis and creating areas with heavier rain/snowfall rates.
Travel impacts will generally be confined to areas above 7,000ft in
northern NM, but a brief shot of snow along the upper Rio Grande
Valley and in the Santa Fe area cannot be ruled out. As this storm
exits late Saturday, drier air will funnel in from the northwest.
This could lead to the development of valley fog, especially in
areas that receive over 0.1" of rain or a fresh layer of snow.
Temperatures may drop below freezing briefly in the Albuquerque
metro Sunday morning and since much of the area is well past the
climatological last freeze date, a Freeze Watch was issued.
Currently, there is around a 30% chance of a freeze at the
Albuquerque Sunport, with higher chances on the west mesa and near
the Rio Grande. Temperatures rebound nicely Sunday afternoon and
snow melt will be quick due to high sun angle.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025
Weak zonal flow will be the prevailing upper level pattern for the
majority of next week. Winds on monday will be light for most areas
and conditions look to remain dry. Northeast areas could get a
little bit breezier as a 1000-1005 mb sfc low develops in southeast
Colorado, co-located with some slightly stronger winds aloft. A
stream of high clouds will make its way across the center of the
state during the day. Tuesday through Thursday will be pretty
similar for most areas, with light winds, dry conditions, and
partly cloudy skies. The exception will be for the eastern plains
along the Texas-New Mexico border, where southerly flow will bring
in some deeper Gulf moisture. This looks like a typical
springtime set up for convection to develop along a retreating
dryline in west Texas during the afternoon. Long range models are
hinting at plenty of instability to work with for areas along far
eastern New Mexico where there is greater confidence for
thunderstorms. CSU ensemble severe probabilities are hinting at a
5 to 15 percent probability of severe hazard occurrence just along
the Texas border for Wednesday and Thursday. Overall highest
precip chances will also be along the eastern plains, with lower
chances (<20%) for central areas. A shallow embedded shortwave
will cross through the region on Thursday and a backdoor front
looks to push through the region overnight. Throughout the week,
temperatures will be just above average for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025
A large area of BLDU with strong southwest winds is impacting
southeast NM where a large IFR SIGMET remains in place (including
KROW). Forecast confidence is low to moderate on the overall
evolution of rain, snow, and wind impacts at remaining terminals
for the next 24 hrs. There are several key differences between the
current conditions and guidance members that will make for a very
tricky period to nail down the details. At this time, a Pacific
cold front is surging into western NM with a northwest wind shift
while a backdoor cold front surges south across eastern NM with a
northeasterly wind shift. These fronts are expected to converge
near the central mt chain and RGV while an upper level low moves
east across central NM. A band of rain/snow over western NM this
evening is expected to shift east across the Cont Divide tonight
then blossom into a larger area of rain/snow over central and
northern NM Saturday. There are high chances for MVFR cigs to
develop over much of eastern NM in the wake of the backdoor cold
front tonight then persist thru Saturday. Periods of IFR are
also likely wherever the main area of rain/snow sets up across
central NM thru Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025
Gusty southwest winds and low humidity will continue to create
critical fire weather conditions through the early evening in south-
central and southeastern New Mexico. A backdoor front has stalled
across northeast/east-central NM, keeping higher humidities and
lighter winds in those areas. The southern and western fringes of
the east central plains and northeast plains zones may still
experience a few hours of critical fire weather conditions as
southwest winds try to push back the backdoor front. Rain and snow
showers spread across the area from west to east this evening,
bringing wetting precipitation to many areas. Drier and warmer
weather returns Sunday and Monday, with dryline storms increasing in
likelihood Tuesday through Thursday next week. A few gusty storms
may develop as far west as the central mountain chain. Critical fire
weather conditions are not likely next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 34 50 29 62 / 70 80 5 0
Dulce........................... 26 44 20 57 / 70 90 30 0
Cuba............................ 30 42 23 55 / 60 90 40 0
Gallup.......................... 24 44 18 60 / 80 60 5 0
El Morro........................ 27 41 21 57 / 60 70 20 0
Grants.......................... 27 47 19 62 / 50 60 20 0
Quemado......................... 29 44 22 59 / 60 70 5 0
Magdalena....................... 36 48 29 63 / 20 70 40 0
Datil........................... 31 44 25 60 / 30 70 30 0
Reserve......................... 30 51 20 68 / 30 70 0 0
Glenwood........................ 35 56 27 73 / 30 70 0 0
Chama........................... 25 40 18 50 / 80 90 40 5
Los Alamos...................... 34 42 29 55 / 50 90 60 0
Pecos........................... 31 41 26 55 / 30 80 80 5
Cerro/Questa.................... 29 42 23 52 / 60 80 50 5
Red River....................... 22 32 18 43 / 80 80 60 10
Angel Fire...................... 22 36 18 50 / 70 80 60 10
Taos............................ 29 46 21 56 / 50 80 50 5
Mora............................ 27 36 20 55 / 50 90 80 10
Espanola........................ 35 51 28 62 / 40 80 50 0
Santa Fe........................ 35 45 30 55 / 40 80 60 5
Santa Fe Airport................ 36 47 28 59 / 30 80 60 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 39 49 34 63 / 40 80 60 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 39 51 33 66 / 30 70 50 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 39 53 32 69 / 30 70 50 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 40 51 33 66 / 40 70 50 0
Belen........................... 37 54 30 69 / 30 70 50 0
Bernalillo...................... 39 52 32 66 / 40 80 50 0
Bosque Farms.................... 37 53 30 69 / 30 70 50 0
Corrales........................ 39 52 33 67 / 40 80 50 0
Los Lunas....................... 39 53 30 68 / 30 70 50 0
Placitas........................ 38 47 32 61 / 40 80 60 0
Rio Rancho...................... 39 51 33 66 / 40 80 50 0
Socorro......................... 41 58 34 73 / 10 70 40 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 33 43 28 57 / 40 80 60 0
Tijeras......................... 35 45 30 60 / 40 80 60 0
Edgewood........................ 32 44 26 59 / 20 80 60 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 30 46 22 60 / 20 80 60 0
Clines Corners.................. 30 40 25 56 / 10 80 70 5
Mountainair..................... 32 47 26 60 / 10 70 60 0
Gran Quivira.................... 33 48 27 60 / 10 70 60 0
Carrizozo....................... 41 57 32 65 / 0 70 50 0
Ruidoso......................... 37 51 30 60 / 0 60 40 0
Capulin......................... 25 35 24 55 / 60 50 50 10
Raton........................... 28 40 24 60 / 60 60 50 5
Springer........................ 31 42 25 61 / 40 60 60 5
Las Vegas....................... 31 39 23 58 / 20 80 80 5
Clayton......................... 33 42 31 63 / 30 30 60 30
Roy............................. 33 43 28 62 / 10 60 80 10
Conchas......................... 39 52 34 68 / 5 70 80 20
Santa Rosa...................... 38 51 32 64 / 0 80 70 10
Tucumcari....................... 39 52 35 66 / 5 50 80 20
Clovis.......................... 40 60 36 67 / 0 40 90 20
Portales........................ 41 64 35 68 / 0 40 80 20
Fort Sumner..................... 40 61 34 69 / 0 60 70 10
Roswell......................... 48 70 40 75 / 0 20 30 5
Picacho......................... 41 62 34 71 / 0 40 30 0
Elk............................. 39 61 32 71 / 0 30 20 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ205.
Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
NMZ219.
Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Saturday night for
NMZ210-211-213>215-227.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to midnight MDT
Saturday night for NMZ221.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ202.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...42
Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
747 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridging will be in control of our weather through
the weekend, leading to continued dry weather with above normal
temperatures. The next chance of rain comes Monday night into
Tuesday from a cold front which could stall out across the
region for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):
- High pressure persists with mild overnight temperatures.
The axis of an upper level ridge is located over the eastern
seaboard with a surface high parked over the western Atlantic.
These features are not expected to move all that much overnight.
Southerly surface flow tonight keeps moisture trapped underneath
a temperature inversion, resulting in the possibility of some
patches of stratus. However, guidance suggests it won`t be
widespread. Nonetheless, lows are expected to be on the mild
side with temperatures dropping into the upper 50s to around 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
- Dry weather continues, with above normal afternoon highs both
days
Strong ridging aloft is forecast to further establish itself over
the region on Saturday and Sunday. Ensembles and operational models
are in good agreement on a deep upper low over the intermountain
west continuing to slowly dig and shift eastward through the period.
This should modulate downstream ridging across the southeastern US,
with 500 hPa heights forecast to reach heights rarely seen in April.
A large, 591dm 500 hPa ridge is near or above the max value for the
climatological database this time of year per NAEFS, with heights 2-
2.5 SD above normal in the GEFS and ECE guidance. LREF soundings, as
well as BUFKIT soundings, reveal a strong subsidence inversion set
up across the forecast area both days, keeping the weather fairly
benign. NBM deterministic Max T remains near or beneath the 25th
percentile of the overall distribution, which seems pretty
unreasonable given the high heights. ECMWF EFI values would indicate
anomalous but not record temps, so will err on using guidance that
is warmer than the NBM both days. Expect highs in the upper
80s to around 90, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to around
60.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):
- Above normal temperatures to continue through the period
- Shower and storm chances return Tuesday afternoon and low chances
are expected through the end of the period
The ridge is expected to begin shifting eastward on Monday as the
deep trough continues to translate eastward. Despite this, above
normal heights are likely to continue. Given robust southwesterly
flow aloft & continued anomalous heights, as well as being ahead of
an approaching front, expect highs near the upper 80s again on
Monday afternoon. Guidance is in pretty good agreement that the
front should continue to slowly progress towards the region on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Flow aloft is forecast to relax across
the eastern CONUS, likely preventing the front from moving too
much over a few days. Expectation is that shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase on Tuesday and hang around
through at least Thursday. A moisture rich airmass south of the
remnant boundary, along with warm temps likely in the mid 80s,
should result in diurnal chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
Although VFR conditions are most likely through the TAF period,
shallow moisture beneath the nocturnal inversion may lead to a
brief period of restrictions early Saturday morning. With light
surface winds around 5 kts through the night and a 30 kt LLJ in
place ceiling restrictions would be more likely than fog. HRRR
shows some patchy MVFR/IFR restrictions around 12Z although
other guidance is not as pessimistic. Shortly after sunrise
Saturday S winds will pick up around 10 kts through the
afternoon with a few cu.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Sunday
morning as moisture continues to increase. A front approaches
the region early next week supporting potential restrictions and
possible rainfall into mid week.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1100 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves across the western Great Lakes this evening
before dragging a cold front southeast across the local area on
Saturday. The cold front will stall across the Ohio River Valley
as high pressure briefly builds overhead from the north. The
cold front will lift back north as a warm front on Monday as
another system approaches from the Great Plains.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A few thunderstorms are starting to develop upstream in the warm
sector in NW Indiana where there is some low level convergence
aligned with upper level support ahead of the cold front. In
general 00Z models have trended just a little bit slower with
the arrival of precipitation overnight. It looks like a
prefrontal trough and better moisture advection on track to move
into the I-75 corridor towards 08Z but with perhaps a little
lower coverage early on. Rain looks to expand eastward as the
low level jet moves northeast while the cold front is pushing
south into the area on Saturday morning. It does still look like
some training is possible along this frontal boundary but less
certain is the degree of thunderstorms by that time.
Previous discussion..Mid to upper level ridge and associated
dry air will continue to exit eastward as an upper level trough
pushes west. Surface low pressure is expected to track northeast
across Lower Michigan through tonight while swinging a cold
front east overnight tonight. The timing of the frontal passage
continues to slow with most precipitation associated with the
front occurring after midnight. Given the unfavorable timing of
the frontal passage, the severe weather threat continues to
dwindle. However, can`t rule out isolated instances of strong to
marginally severe storms across Northwest Ohio late tonight
given a few hundred Joules of MLCAPE and roughly 40 knots of
deep layer shear. As such, the northwest corner of our CWA has
been clipped with a SWODY1 Marginal Risk (Level 1/5). Any strong
to severe storm that does materialize may produce damaging wind
gusts.
The aforementioned cold front will remain stalled across the Ohio
River Valley on Saturday, allowing for periods of rain showers and
thunderstorms to continue through Saturday. There is the potential
for some pockets of stronger storms mainly south of US-30 on
Saturday along a narrow band of weak instability. Similar to Friday
night`s threat, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard.
Warm overnight lows expected ahead of the cold front as they settle
in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures will gradually cool during the
day on Saturday with highs in the 60s likely achieved just after
sunrise. Cooler behind the cold front Saturday night with lows in
the low 40s with mid 30s possible across Northwest Pennsylvania.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weather for the later half of this weekend will be drier than
the first half. An area of high pressure will build down from
southern Ontario into the Eastern Great Lakes on Sunday bringing
fair weather conditions. Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday as a
Canadian airmass will advect into the region on northerly winds.
High temps Sunday afternoon will be slightly below average ranging
from the mid 50s near the lakeshore and low 60s towards central
Ohio. The low level flow will eventually become easterly late
Sunday and wind speeds will increase slightly Sunday night as a
pressure gradient develops over the region. The next storm system
that will bring another round of April showers and possible
thunderstorms will track from the Midwest into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley late Sunday night into Monday. A surface low pressure
system and trialing cold front will track from the Cornbelt Region
and through the Upper Great Lakes during the day Monday. We will
bring back slight to chance POPs late Sunday night and increase the
rain chances to very likely by Monday afternoon. Ahead of the
approaching cold front Monday, temperatures will warm back into the
70s. There is some potential for a couple strong to isolated severe
storms possible with the cold front later on Monday. Timing and over
thermodynamics for organized, severe convection is somewhat
uncertain and appears to limited at this time. Temperatures will be
cooler again behind the front Monday night down into the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A small area of high pressure will move across the Ohio Valley on
Tuesday with brief cool down and a break from rain chances. High
temperatures will be knocked back down to seasonable averages for
late April Tuesday in the low to mid 60s and the weather will be dry
as well. The overall weather pattern will become more zonal or
westerly flow in the middle and upper levels. The main storm track
or Jet Stream will favor along the northern CONUS near the border
with Canada. This pattern setup usually favors milder to warmer
temperatures for the extended forecast with highs in the 70s during
the middle and end of next week. With the storm track close to the
Great Lakes region, there may be a couple weak, fast moving storm
system that could bring some scattered rain chances later next week
but timing and POPs are somewhat uncertain this far out in the
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The area remains dry this evening with thunderstorms over the
thumb region of lower Michigan along the warm front. This
activity is expected to remain to our north with a capping
inversion in place. Later tonight, showers with scattered
thunderstorms are expected to move into Northwest Ohio between
06-08Z and spread east overnight. The HRRR has been trending
slower with the arrival of precipitation while both the NAM and
GFS show good moisture advection through a deep layer between
06-12Z. Will need to monitor timing brought rain into all
terminals beginning at TOL/FDY around 07-08Z and MFD/CLE around
08-09Z. Thunderstorms look most likely along a swath from FDY-
MFD-CAK overnight but still a good enough chance to keep in the
forecast at CLE. Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR and IFR
ceilings will be possible with any thunderstorms. A break in the
rain looks possible for a while on Saturday morning before rain
fills back in along a cold front sinking southeast across the
area from late morning through mid afternoon. Additional rain is
expected for most terminals except TOL with another chance of
thunderstorms primarily focused at the southern terminals. MVFR
conditions will continue on Saturday behind the cold front.
Southwest winds have been gusting to 30-35 knots this evening
in NW Ohio but should settle into the 20-30 knot range for much
of the overnight. A low level jet does move overhead but expect
enough mixing for surface winds to continue to gust have not
included in the TAFs. Behind the cold front, winds turn
westerly and eventually decrease below 15 knots towards late
afternoon Saturday.
Outlook...Scattered rain showers with non-VFR expected Saturday
night and Sunday night with higher coverage of rain on Monday.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible on Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
We will allow the eastern Lake Erie zones of the Small Craft
Advisory to expire at 4 pm. The western zones of the SCA will
continue until 10 pm this evening. The main marine concerns
this afternoon into this evening for any early season boaters or
fisherman will be the gusty southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.
Waves conditions will be lower closest to the lakeshore and up
to 4 feet further away with this offshore wind flow through
tonight. A cold front will move across Lake Erie Saturday
morning or midday. The flow will become westerly to northwest
behind the front later Saturday 10 to 15 knots. Additional SCA
may be needed if the winds become slightly higher with that
onshore flow. High pressure will build down over the Great Lakes
Saturday night into Sunday. The wind flow will be northerly by
Sunday morning and gradually become easterly late Sunday into
SUnday night 10 to 15 knots. Easterly winds will increase up to
15 to 20 knots by Sunday night into Monday morning. Another cold
front will approach the lake by Monday afternoon. The flow will
be southerly 15 to 20 knots ahead the cold front Monday. High
pressure will build over the lake Monday night and Tuesday with
a westerly flow 10 to 20 knots.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...10/13
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...10/13
MARINE...77
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cloudy and unseasonably cool Saturday.
- Beneficial rainfall expected Easter Sunday, but only east of
US Highway 83.
- Sunshine returns and much warmer Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
After the cold frontal passage this morning, temperatures
across SW Kansas are much cooler than the days previous. Highs
are forecast to reach only into the 50s and 60s today aided by
continuing CAA with the north/northeast winds. Current RAP
mesoanalysis depicts a deep trough over the 4 corner states.
This deep low has vertical continuity and is forecasted by
ensembles to continue moving eastward and its` influence
reaching the forecast area through the weekend. In the meantime,
storms are possible tonight in the southeast portion of the
forecast area. Barber county is clipped by a marginal severe
weather risk. CAMs still disagree somewhat despite a somewhat
small temporal gap. For example the HRRR contains nearly all
convection outside of the forecast area besides around Barber
county while the NAMNST has weak thunderstorms stretching as
westward as far as Dodge City. Environmental parameters echo the
sentiment that any storms that do develop will be marginally
severe at the strongest with the storms being elevated having
low CAPE and shear values in forecast soundings. Hail is the
only reasonable severe threat and again even that is fairly
minimal.
Into the very early part of Saturday morning, temperatures are
forecast to get close to freezing for the western portion of
the forecast area with continued CAA. Saturday will be quiet
and mostly dry between the convection potential on Friday and
the widespread showers on Sunday with highs in the 50s.
On Sunday, the aforementioned low reaches Texas and bringing
showers across Kansas. Models and ensembles having a defined
line the wet and dry areas of the system. Currently, the general
consensus is that this axis will set up around Highway 83. East
of there, up to a half inch of rain is expected with ensembles
having a >50% for that much rain everywhere east of Highway 83.
It should be taken in mind that any shift up until the system
arrives could drastically change where the wet/dry divide will
take hold. A few miles to the southeast could leave Dodge City
nearly completely dry, but trends have held relatively steady
over the previous few runs.
Into Monday, sharp WAA will help return warm temperatures to SW
Kansas with highs via ensembles pushing 80 degrees across the CWA.
Temperatures for the front half of the week are then forecast to be
steady in the 70/80s. Ensembles are excited about a more active
synoptic weather pattern by the middle of the week. This pattern
should bring multiple rounds of potential precipitation if
everything materializes as the ensembles suggest.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
A midlevel overcast cloud deck will prevail through this TAF
period. VFR will prevail, but ceilings may lower to MVFR at
times, especially around LBL. Rain on radar at 0330z Sat is
expected to remain southeast of the airports through Saturday
morning. Just after this TAF period, degrading flight categories
are expected 06-12z Sun, with widespread rain and ceilings
lowering to IFR, focusing from HYS-DDC and points east.
Northeast winds of 10-15 kts will prevail at all airports
through the period.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
747 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorm chances will increase late this evening and overnight
mainly west of I-35. A few severe storms will be possible.
- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday night
into early Sunday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible mainly northwest of the Metroplex.
- An active period of weather is expected through next week with
additional storm chances Tuesday night through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The current RAP analysis and water vapor satellite imagery shows
the mid-/upper-level low pressure system remains over Utah this
evening continuing to steer a strong subtropical jet across the
southern Plains. As of 7 PM, surface observations show the cold
front stretched across Central OK into the southern Texas
Panhandle, with the dryline extending southward into the Rolling
Plains. With steady moistening and partial cloud breaks,
destabilization has continued over the past several hours
(1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) across the prefrontal warm sector. Though
the capping inversion has weakened considerably this afternoon,
confirmed by the 00Z observed sounding from Fort Worth, the only
convection that has managed to develop over the past several hours
has been east of Lubbock/Amarillo into western Oklahoma. This is
likely due to the absence of adequate forcing given how far west
the surface and upper level features remain.
CAM guidance continues to signal convective initiation near the
surface boundaries this evening and slowly shifting east overnight
(after midnight). The previous forecast remains in good shape
(see discussion below) therefore, only minor adjustments were
necessary with this update. Given the slow pace of the front,
training convection is expected over our far northwestern counties
with an isolated (10% chance) for totals exceeding 4 inches by
Sunday. For this reason, a Flood Watch will be issued this evening
for our northwestern counties through Sunday morning.
12
Previous Discussion:
/This Afternoon through Saturday Night/
A warm, humid, and moderately unstable airmass is in place across
North Texas this afternoon aided by moist southerly flow.
Dewpoints are currently in the mid and upper 60s across the region
yielding about 2500 J/kg of instability, but a strong capping
inversion is currently in place keeping things mostly quiet. High
level moisture is streaming in from the southwest and some weak
radar returns are noted, but none of this is reaching the ground
thanks to a deep dry sub-cloud layer. The rest of the afternoon
should generally remain quiet, although we`ll be watching a couple
of things as we head into the evening hours.
The strong capping inversion will gradually weaken through the
late afternoon as a combination of synoptic scale lift, mid-level
cooling, and strong surface heating works to modify the profile.
This should result in an environment supportive of isolated
thunderstorm development by 5-7 pm, however, a lack of any
appreciable low level forcing mechanism will be a limiting factor.
Several runs of the HRRR attempt to develop convection in and
around the Metroplex during this time, likely along a tight
theta-e gradient near the shield of thicker cloud cover and mostly
sunny skies. While this gradient is currently in place, it`s a
little uncertain whether or not it will persist into the late
afternoon if cloud cover to the west thins a bit. Nonetheless, the
environment will be supportive of severe thunderstorms with a
large hail and damaging wind threat if any storms were to develop.
We`ll keep PoPs at 20% this evening to account for this potential.
Attention then turns to our western counties this evening and
tonight as stronger forcing for ascent spreads into the Southern
Plains ahead of a potent shortwave trough. At the surface, a cold
front is draped across Central Oklahoma into northwest Texas. This
boundary will serve as a focus for convective development off to
our northwest late this afternoon and evening, and the bulk of
this activity will gradually slide southeastward into our area
after dark. We`ll have high PoPs to our west and northwest through
the overnight hours, as most of this activity should be directly
tied to the front. Similar to this afternoon, there will be some
potential for severe weather, including large hail and damaging
winds through the overnight hours. It`s a little uncertain how far
east this activity will make it, but any organized cold pools
could help push things a little farther east than currently
forecast. As this initial wave of ascent pulls off to the
northeast, we should see a gradual decrease in coverage and
intensity of thunderstorms into the early morning hours on
Saturday. We`ll maintain relatively high PoPs through the first
half of Saturday (particularly across our northwest), but most
areas may actually remain precipitation free through the afternoon
hours.
As the main shortwave begins to eject into the Plains Saturday
night, we`ll see a rapid uptick in the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across our northwest counties through the late
evening hours. Some of this initial re-development could be severe
with a large hail and damaging wind threat. An eventual transition
into a linear complex of storms is expected through the overnight
hours with this activity approaching the I-35 corridor by early
Sunday morning.
While there will be a threat for severe weather through the period
(now through Sat night), the main concern in our area will likely
be a focused area of very heavy rainfall across the northwest part
of the CWA (Young, Jack, Wise, Cooke, and Montague Counties). This
would be closely tied to the frontal boundary where multiple
training thunderstorms may occur. There will also be a tight
gradient in rainfall amounts with the heaviest occurring across
our northwest and much lesser amounts to the south and east. If
trends in QPF amounts continue, a localized Flash Flood Watch may
be needed for parts of the CWA.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 109 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/
/Sunday through Friday/
Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing early Sunday morning
with a complex of storms somewhere near the I-35 corridor. While
the severe threat should be at a diurnal minimum, we`ll have to
see how well organized the line of storms remains overnight.
A damaging wind threat may persist for a few hours early Sunday
morning. Otherwise, the bulk of the strong forcing for ascent will
quickly pull off to the north and east through midday, and we`ll
likely see a rapid decrease in the coverage of showers and storms
during this time with drier air quickly filtering in from the west
through Sunday afternoon.
A brief lull in the active pattern is expected late Sunday through
early Tuesday, but deep moisture will not be far removed from the
region. Southerly winds will return and pull this moisture
northward through the day Tuesday. A series of fast moving
disturbances will swing through the Southern Plains during the
week with the first one expected Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorms
should initially develop off to the west and south along a dryline
and remnant frontal boundary during peak heating. This activity
may overspread parts of North Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Another disturbance is expected to approach the region on Thursday
and this may be the day with the greatest coverage of
thunderstorms and threat for severe weather.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
VFR flight conditions prevail with a thick canopy of high clouds
remaining across D10. Southerly winds continue to be gusty, though
speeds have decreased slightly with sustained speeds around 10-15
kts and gusts to 20-25 kts. The main concern for this TAF period
continues to be thunderstorms developing well west/northwest of
the major airports over the next several hours and drifting slowly
towards the I-35 corridor through early Saturday morning. Have
extended VCTS and MVFR cigs through 16Z with this update, based on
trends in recent guidance with -SHRA lingering through 18Z. The
remainder of the day tomorrow still looks to remain precipitation-
free with additional thunderstorms expected to reach the TAF
sites just beyond the current extended TAF period as the front
finally pushes through the region.
12
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 79 62 75 54 / 70 60 70 80 5
Waco 70 82 63 78 53 / 30 30 30 80 10
Paris 68 81 65 75 51 / 50 50 50 60 10
Denton 64 76 57 75 48 / 70 80 90 70 0
McKinney 67 79 61 73 52 / 70 60 60 80 5
Dallas 68 81 63 76 55 / 70 60 60 80 5
Terrell 68 82 64 75 52 / 30 40 30 80 10
Corsicana 70 84 67 78 55 / 20 40 20 70 20
Temple 68 84 63 78 53 / 20 30 30 80 10
Mineral Wells 65 79 56 76 49 / 70 80 100 40 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
935 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm with periods of showers/storms tonight
- Another wet and breezy system Sunday through Monday
- Mild with small chances of rain Tuesday through Thursday
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025
The radar is starting to perk up again as expected. Storms that
fired over Wisconsin along the cold front have moved
northeastward, crossed the lake, and are now moving over the
northwest cwa. The cores in these storms are a bit more robust
than earlier today and may end up being a bit stronger too. It`s
still possible we could see a severe storm or two with 1 inch
hails and wind gusts to 60 mph. GRR VWP shows 50 kts at 4k ft and
a stronger storm could bring that down to the surface.
The cold front remains to the west and the thunder threat will
continue tonight until the front moves across the cwa, which will
come after midnight.
No big changes to the forecast, but tweaked the PoPs a bit timing
wise.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025
- Warm with periods of showers/storms tonight
Low confidence forecast with respect to severe weather potential
and coverage this evening. Warmer, more humid air continues to
flow in from the south with temps in the 70s and dew pts in the
mid to upper 50s. Despite lingering cloud cover, some sfc based
cape is now developing south of I-96 and that is expected to grow
and expand farther north with time through this evening. However
RAP guidance continues to show 200-300 J/KG of CIN persisting for
several hours.
Mid level lapse rates of 8-9 C/KM are present over srn Lwr MI so
if the cap can be broken by either the shortwave approaching from
the southwest and/or the cold front slowing leaning in from the
northwest then strong to severe storms could quickly develop.
Large hail and damaging winds are the main threat. Will have the
highest pops early this evening north and west of a MKG to MOP
line, expanding/moving south and east with the slow moving cold
front through the night.
Shower and storm threat ending late tonight or Saturday morning
as the cold front settles south of the state but considerable
cloudiness lingering, especially south.
- Another wet and breezy system Sunday through Monday
Shower potential ramping up again later Sunday and Sunday night
as wound-up low tracks from the Plains toward Wisconsin. Best
shower and storm potential should be 06Z-18Z Monday when the sfc
occlusion and negative tilt upper trough is swinging through,
although some wrap-around showers will linger in the cold
advection Monday afternoon and night. Another aspect from this
system will be winds; with brisk easterly flow preceding it and
strong westerly flow on the back side.
- Mild with small chances of rain Tuesday through Thursday
Tuesday and beyond features occasional (but for now low) shower
chances with ripply zonal flow aloft and decent baroclinicity
overhead/nearby. There are no major cold intrusions shown and
temperatures for the mid to late week period are expected to be a
bit above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025
Additional convection and LLWS are the concerns tonight.
A cold front in western IL will move east this evening and another
round of showers/storms are possible late this evening and the
early overnight. LLWS remains a concern this evening due to the
presence of a strong low level jet aloft. Once the cold front
moves through, there may be a brief period of IFR cigs before
conditions improve to MVFR after 09z.
Cigs will slowly but steadily lift throughout the day Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025
We`re seeing a lull in winds and waves currently but will keep
the small craft advisory going into Saturday morning since the
cold frontal passage tonight will bring a period of increased
northerly winds. Occasional thunderstorms are also expected over
Lk MI tonight.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
DISCUSSION...Meade
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Meade
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
950 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area
tonight and continue through the day on Saturday as a cold front
moves into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures remain above average through the
weekend and through much of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure will lift into southeastern Canada overnight while an
associated cold front slides east toward our forecast area. Guidance
is initializing a bit too fast with the 00Z runs. However, with the
development of a LLJ in the next few hours, expecting an increase in
convection across Illinois and Indiana to move into our northwestern
counties after midnight. With surface winds backing off late this
evening, we are likely seeing some convective inhibition
developing... the RAP MLCAPE/CIN charts agree with this. While there
might be an outside chance of a damaging wind gust or large hail
later tonight, confidence is very low in this materializing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The front continues to slowly move through the CWA on Saturday with
showers and thunderstorms being forced along and out in front of it.
Similar to the overnight, conditional severe threat remains in place,
with the 50-60 kt LLJ continuing to move through the area. With the
arrival of daytime, some marginal instability is able to build in
(along with an enhanced plume of moisture), so any storms that tap
into this again would have the potential to bring strong to damaging
winds down to the surface, with hail a possibility. The helicity
values on Saturday daytime are not quite as robust, so TOR threat is
minimal.
In addition to the conditional severe threat, we`ll also be watching
heavy rainfall. PWATs of 1.5 inches, marginal CAPE values, and
column RH values around 75-90% all suggest efficient rainfall rates.
These factors combined with the southwest to northeast storm
progress/training storms may introduce localized flooding during
early morning to late morning hours on Saturday.
Heaviest rainfall tapers off by late morning, though off and on
showers continue into Saturday afternoon. With the front stretched
out across the region, highs reach the upper 60s in our northwest,
upper 70s (low 80s??) in south central OH/ northern KY. Dew points
soar to the low 60s.
Off and on rain showers continue into the overnight, though
instability is cut off by the forward progression of the frontal
boundary, so pulled thunder out of most areas in the grids. Overnight
lows fall to the upper 40s along and north of I-70 with upper 50s
along the Ohio River.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H5 ridge builds across the eastern CONUS on Sunday, with a
negatively tilted trough and associated surface low moving into the
Midwest region. Warm front will begin to lift northward through the
ILN fa, so a temperature gradient will likely be present through our
CWA on Sunday. Highs could reach the 80 degree mark in northern KY,
whereas locations north of I-70 may struggle to reach 60. Some rain
is possible with the associated isentropic lift, but the best
forcing will arrive on Monday with the cold front. Instability does
build into the region on Monday, but models are showing very
marginal instability levels. Thus, thunderstorms are possible, but
severe potential may be limited.
Quasi-zonal H5 flow develops on Tuesday. We will be observing higher
heights with this flow regime, which in turn, will result in a
warmer air mass pushing into the Midwest region. Thus, temperatures
are likely to trend above seasonal normals through the remainder of
the work week. High pressure will offer drier conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday. Thursday may end up trending dry as well, but by late
week, a shortwave trough will ripple through the Ohio Valley,
resulting in increased PoPs on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Several distinct weather patterns ahead during the TAF period. To
start the period, gusty southwest winds will persist in the pressure
gradient ahead of a cold front draped from the Great Lakes through
the middle Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains. Starting just
after midnight, the front will begin to approach the northern TAF
sites (especially DAY) with an increase in shower and storm chances
through the early morning hours.
The front and associated clusters of showers and storms will sink
south into the CVG/ILN/CMH areas from mid morning into early
afternoon. Precise timing of the storms is very uncertain... but
highest likelihood will be from 12-18Z in these areas. As the front
passes, coverage of precipitation will decrease as winds begin to
shift to the west, then northwest. Guidance is uncertain as to
whether ceilings lower below 3,000 feet initially. Best chance of
this is behind the front late Saturday afternoon into the evening.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible along with a chance of
thunderstorms into Saturday night. Some MVFR CIGs are possible early
Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1016 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase (60-80%) mainly
overnight into early Saturday morning. An isolated severe
storm remains possible, mainly in IN and sw MI (11pm-5am EDT).
- Cooler this weekend into early next week with best rainfall
chances Saturday along and south of US 24, and for the entire
forecast area Sunday night into Monday morning.
- Mainly dry with above normal temps Tuesday and beyond.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025
00Z KILX sounding showing capping holding so far with overall
coverage and organization of showers/storms rather paltry. One
storm managed to develop and hold its own west of Peoria, IN
(sub severe) and recent radar trends showing a few more cells
developing from south of Kankakee to north of Danville IL. Will
need to monitor these for mainly a hail threat, most likely pea
size or less. HRRR has trended towards more of a convective
response still for later tonight with SE half of the area maybe
seeing showers/embedded storms after 9Z. Shear and lapse rates
will still be decent, but unsure of severe risk given the late
hour.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025
A warm and windy warm sector this afternoon will give way to
scattered showers and storms late this evening into early Saturday
morning. Overall modest incoming forcing in conjunction with a
strong elevated mixed layer (and associated capping inversion
at its base...check out the central IL 12z sounding) still
bring significant questions on storm coverage and intensity
tonight. Synoptically...some increase in deeper ascent noted
with an incoming subtle shortwave and upper jet approaching the
Mid MS Valley. Weak height falls also overspread the area with
at least weak low level convergence with an incoming frontal
boundary and any leading pre-frontal features/outflows. Model
guidance is overall in agreement in this being enough to weaken
the cap for at least widely scattered convection late evening
into the early overnight.
Any deeper updrafts will have steep mid level lapse rates (MUCAPE
near 1000 j/kg) and 50-60 knots of deep layer shear in the 0-6 km
layer to work with. Hail appears to the primary threat initially
with activity more elevated with higher cloud bases.
However, given the aforementioned forcing limitations and strong
capping, thinking more intense convection will struggle and be
isolated and confined to mainly our IN and sw MI zones late this
evening into early Saturday morning. This lines up with SPC`s lower
end probs for severe storms tonight.
Showers, and perhaps some occasional lightning, likely lingers
through midday Saturday on the northern fringe of the main frontal
boundary sinking toward the OH River (mainly along/south of US 24).
This boundary and deeper moisture returns north late Sunday into
Monday morning with additional chances for showers and isolated
thunder. The remainder of the week will see a trend toward above
normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions in response to a more
zonal flow regime.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025
No changes to previous TAFs with main focus on gusty winds,
eventual shift to NW behind a cold front and limited
shower/storm potential this evening. Confidence has not
increased at all to warrant more than the prob30 mention of
storms. Did delay by 1 hour at both sites.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Fisher
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
751 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers/storms this evening, some possibly severe
with hail and strong/gusty winds the main threats.
- Much cooler Saturday with shower chances lingering near/south
of Hwy 24, especially early.
- Periods of showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms on
Sunday becoming more widespread Sunday night. There remains a
conditional threat for strong to severe storms Sunday
afternoon and evening mainly for the southern portions of our
area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
A surface cold front, tied to a ~1004 mb surface low just north
of Milwaukee is shifting east across the Mississippi River.
Ahead of this boundary, widespread cloud cover during the
afternoon greatly limited insolation, with temperatures
generally in the low 70s at this time. While dewpoints have
meandered their way into the lower 60s, the expansive nature of
the low-level stratus deck suggests that inhibition for surface
parcels remains in place, as evidenced by billow clouds across
northeast Illinois (on earlier visible satellite imagery). This
also appears to be true even across our far western locales
where the RAP is analyzing a local minima in MLCIN, which is
probably a result of its dewpoint fields which remain a bit
higher than observations suggest. Regardless, a reservoir of
elevated instability remains in place, with MUCAPE around 1500
J/kg per recent objective analysis (similar values were depicted
on a 19z sounding from NIU).
A low-amplitude disturbance appears to be translating up through
the middle Mississippi River vicinity, with a modest 500 mb jet
enhancement (70+ kt) pushing into southern Wisconsin. Continued
broad ascent associated with this perturbation has resulted in
a slow lifting/moistening at the base of an elevated mixed
layer. This has supported a **very** gradual increase in
convection in an axis stretching from Janesville, WI,
southwestward towards Macomb, IL.
While we`ll steadily be losing the steepest lapse rates
associated with the primary core of the EML plume (which
advected overhead late last night and early this morning),
instability will remain sufficient in concert with 40-60 kts of
effective deep layer shear to support slowly organizing
updrafts and at least some severe weather threat. Given the
overall modest nature of ascent and ongoing satellite/radar
trends, any intensification process will likely remain slow,
with the severe weather threat expected to remain somewhat
isolated. Based on the latest trends with activity still
struggling to meaningfully intensify across northwest Illinois,
wondering if the activity pushing out of west-central Illinois
will end up posing the main strong-severe risk as it pushes
northeast towards our region after about 9 PM, with the main
severe threat area looking like it`ll set up across the
southeast half of the forecast area (and even this may remain
somewhat limited in scope/coverage). Main threats will be from
hail and 50-60 mph wind gusts. Given the loss of the steepest
lapse rates, suspect the threat for more significant hail will
remain in check.
Carlaw
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
Through Tonight:
Extensive cloud cover persists across the area this afternoon
within the warm sector of a surface low centered near Dubuque, IA.
In spite of the cloud cover, breezy south winds continue to aid
in the advection of warmer temperatures. In fact, as of this
writing temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 70s, save
areas along the Lake County IL Lake Michigan shore. Cooler
temperatures (in the 60s) have persisted here due to the
continued onshore flow following this mornings outflow boundary.
Expect these breezy and warm conditions to persist into this
evening as a cold front gradually shifts eastward into the area.
The primary weather concern continues to center around the
threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, particularly this
evening (roughly 6 PM through 11PM) as the cold front shifts
eastward across the area. A persistent and exceptionally strong
EML and associated capping inversion continues to be sampled in
recent AMDAR soundings out of MDW and RFD. This is expected to
curtail near surface based storm development, at least for the
next few hours mid to late this afternoon. In spite of this,
elevated storms, based above the EML inversion, will continue to
fester across far northern sections of IL for the next few
hours as a weak impulse tracks northeast into southern WI. Any
severe threat with these initial storms should be confined to
some instances of marginally severe hail near and north of the
WI state line.
As we head into early this evening (after 6 PM), the surface cold
front, which as of this writing resides west of the area across
eastern IA, will slide eastward across northern IL. It is near
this boundary in which additional (potentially near surface
based) storms look to develop. As mentioned in previous
discussions, questions remain with the exact timing and overall
coverage of storms near the frontal boundary this evening. Much of
this continued uncertainty revolves around how effectively the
EML capping inversion will erode into this evening, especially
considering that most of the forced ascent and cooling looks to
come as a result of frontal scale forcing.
Nevertheless, any storms that do develop near the front this
evening will do so in an environment quite favorable for severe
storms. The combination of strong deep layer shear and very
steep mid-level lapse rates would be supportive of some
supercells capable of producing instances of very large hail
(1.5"+). Large hail looks to be the primary severe threat this
evening with these storms, though cannot rule out the potential
for some damaging wind gusts and possible a brief tornado,
particularly with any storms that are able to become near
surface based. The highest threat area for these severe storms
will largely be along and south of a line from near LaSalle-Peru
to Chicago, with overall lower potential the farther northwest
of this line you are. Expect the threat of storms to end north
of I-80 later this evening. However, storm activity is likely to
linger overnight well south of I-80, though the severe
potential is expected to gradually ease here after midnight.
KJB
Saturday through Friday:
Some showers from decaying overnight convection moving across
our southern CWA should linger through the 7-10am CDT timeframe
on Saturday across our far southern CWA, primarily south of
US-24 (60-70% PoPs). The rest of the day and through Saturday
night/early Sunday, additional impulses interacting with the
low-level baroclinic zone focused to our south may bring
occasional (primarily light intensity) showers at times to
portions of central Illinois and south of the Kankakee River in
Indiana (20-50% PoPs/highest south of US-24). Otherwise, it will
be notably cooler on Saturday with cloudy skies and perhaps
some sunny breaks in the afternoon. Highs will only reach the
mid 50s to around 60F inland and likely be limited to the upper
40s along the immediate lakeshore. This will be followed by lows
in the lower to mid 40s on Saturday night.
On Sunday, the negatively tilted upper trough ejecting from the
southern Plains and associated surface cyclogenesis will result in
a surface low tracking to the mid MS Valley late Sunday night to
central Lake Michigan early Monday afternoon. This is expected to
result in a breezy (easterly gusts to 30 mph), cool, and showery
at times Easter Sunday, unfortunately. It doesn`t look to be an
all-day washout, however, with a few rounds of forcing interacting
with the warm/moist advection over-topping the warm frontal zone.
The forecast surface low path and timing represents a further
slowing trend vs. a few model cycles ago. This is important with
respect to the northward progression of a warm front lifting north
and the potential for a conditional surface based severe threat
late day Sunday into the evening. Given the system`s slowing
trend, it appears the warm front will be hung up just south of our
southern CWA, with perhaps a chance for isolated thunderstorms
south of the Kankakee River Sunday afternoon.
Sunday night is when the most widespread showers and isolated to
scattered embedded thunderstorms are anticipated, along with gusty
southeast winds. Rainfall totals may end up near or just upwards
of an inch near and west of I-39 in northwest to north central
Illinois, with amounts tapering gradually off to the east. Can`t
rule out some ponding on roads with any heavier convective rain
rates Sunday night, though the overall flooding threat appears low.
The surface low will track just to our northwest late Sunday
night and then to our north on Monday, with a few lingering
showers possible until late morning/midday in the cold advection
regime behind the cold front. The afternoon will feature breezy
west- southwest winds gusting to 35 mph, and some upside potential
remains with this.
Castro
For Tuesday onward, the upper-level pattern is forecast to
become more zonal (west-east oriented) and persistently milder.
Both deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to indicate
that subtle shortwaves may pivot through the pattern and result
in additional periods of showers and perhaps thunderstorms (first
window would be late Tuesday-Tuesday evening). Given the
uncertainty in timing and coverage of such activity, see no reason
to alter the periodic 20-50% POPs offered by the NBM through the
end of next week, but suspect that many dry hours will occur as
well. On a more positive note, continued mid-level warm advection
(850mb temps forecast in the 10-12C range) is expected to keep
temperatures in the above normal category for mid-April with highs
in the upper 60s to 70s and overnight lows in the 40s to around
50F. The exception however, will be for those near the lake where
the potential for daily lake breezes may keep readings notably
cooler.
Yack/Castro
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
Aviation forecast concerns for the 00A TAFs:
- Scattered thunderstorm development expected this evening, with
Chicago terminals most likely to be impacted in the 01-05Z
period.
- MVFR ceilings likely behind cold front overnight through
Saturday morning, with a brief period of IFR ceilings possible
Saturday morning.
- Wind shift to west-northwest behind cold front late
evening/overnight. Winds likely shift northeast for Chicago
sites predawn, then back northwest by midday before lake
breeze shifts winds easterly again late Saturday afternoon.
Early evening surface map depicts low pressure over southern WI,
with a cold front trailing southwest along the Mississippi
River. Continue to see a gradual increase in convective updraft
attempts ahead of the front from western IL into southern WI,
and expectation is that scattered thunderstorms will develop
across northern IL by mid-evening. KRFD may be on the western
fringe of this (depending on how quickly things develop) so have
eased off to a VCTS mention there, though Chicago area
terminals continue to see a threat of TSRA from roughly 01-05Z.
The cold front then moves slowly east across the area late
evening/overnight, with MVFR ceilings likely through Saturday
morning before improving and scattering to VFR in the afternoon.
Could be a period of IFR ceilings for the Chicago terminals
Saturday morning as flow turns off Lake Michigan.
Breezy southwest winds continue to gust 25-30 kts in the warm
sector ahead of the cold front early this evening. Winds will
shift west-northwest and eventually northwest behind the front
late evening/overnight, with decreasing gusts. Several models
now depict a wind shift to northeast off the lake for the
Chicago terminals predawn Saturday, with winds remaining
northeast through the morning before briefly turning light
northwest again by early afternoon...only to go easterly again
as a lake breeze moves through late in the afternoon.
Ratzer
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Winthrop
Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL.
Gale Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Wilmette Harbor
IL to Michigan City IN.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
629 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Messages:
- Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast tonight. Some
of these storms may be strong to severe with large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two all possible.
- A more widespread and higher potential severe event is possible
on Sunday. There remains some uncertainty in how much
instability will be available, but all severe hazards are
possible across the entire area between the afternoon and late
evening hours.
- A stalling boundary will produce multiple waves of rainfall to
the region through Sunday night. A Flood Watch remains in effect
along and south of I-70, where locally up to 5 inches of rain
is possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
A cold front is slowly pushing southeastward and is just northwest
of a KMBY>>KMQB line as of 1900 UTC. RAP soundings and ACARS
observations still show a pretty good cap still in place, with a
temperature inversion between 700 and 800 hPa. Near-term guidance
suggests this cap will erode over the next 2-4 hours, with
isolated to widely scattered convection developing around 2300 UTC
(+- an hour or two). Coverage of storms may tend to stay on the
low side through the evening, before low-level moisture
convergence increases along with a midlevel disturbance also
approaching from the southwest. Convective mode looks messy, but
could see a couple of supercells and/or line segments. Large hail
looks to be the main threat, but damaging winds and even an
isolated tornado are possible given moderately strong 0-1 km
shear/SRH values. After midnight, convection should become much
more widespread, but also may tend to focus more behind the cold
front where the low-level moisture convergence is focused. This
activity should tend to become more elevated through the night,
with marginally severe hail the main threat. There is still a low
chance of some surface-based convection closer to the front
across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois into the early
overnight hours however. The risk of damaging winds and an
isolated tornado may continue longer in these areas into the night
as a result.
The cold front is expected to ooze southward into southeast Missouri
and southwest Illinois by Saturday morning. Continued convection
north of the boundary should help push it a bit more to the south
during the day. The main concern for much of the day on Saturday
will be heavy rainfall as elevated convection may tend to train over
the same areas in east-central Missouri and western Illinois.
Exactly where this axis sets up is still a source of uncertainty,
and will heavily depend on the placement and evolution of the quasi-
stationary boundary. Rainfall rates however may not be too high
during much of the day on Saturday for several reasons, including:
1) weak elevated instability/lack of deep convection, 2) lack of
stronger low-level moisture convergence, and 3) high, but not very
high (~90th percentile) precipitable water values. All this being
said, it appears likely that there will be a southwest-northeast
axis of heavier rainfall totals (likely 3-5" by Sunday night), but
the threat should tend to be more river flooding vs. flash flooding.
Any severe threat on Saturday north of the boundary looks very low.
Any convection would be elevated with not much MUCAPE to work with.
Small hail should be the only threat. The one possible exception is
far southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. IF the boundary is
far enough north, there would be a threat for some strong to severe
thunderstorms. Damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and a tornado
or two would also be possible in this scenario. Given the tendency
for boundaries to want to sink a bit further to the south with
persistent convection along/north of it, I have doubts the front
will be far enough north but it is something to keep an eye on.
The front should begin at least to lift back north Saturday night as
surface cyclogenesis commences downstream of a negatively-tilted
midlevel shortwave trough. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected across much of the area, with the focus perhaps just
shifting a bit further to the north with time. Similar to earlier in
the weekend, it does not look like a phenomenal setup for flash
flooding given modest moisture convergence, precipitable water
values that are high but not extremely high, along with a shift to
the north of where the rain is falling compared to late
tonight/Saturday. Guidance has very little MUCAPE in place, so other
than some small hail, the chances for any strong to severe
convection appears very low.
Gosselin
&&
.LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
(Sunday - Sunday Night)
The Sunday afternoon/evening period continues to be the period with
the most concern and the highest potential over the next few days.
Deterministic guidance is in much better agreement with the
evolution of the mid/upper level wave and associated surface low.
All guidance has a very dynamic system characterized by a negatively-
tilted midlevel shortwave trough and rapid deepening of a surface
low tracking across northwest Missouri into eastern Iowa late
Sunday. A warm front is forecast to move through our CWA during the
day on Sunday, though how far north and how fast its progress is
still slightly uncertain due in part at least due to elevated
convection north of the boundary Sunday morning. Regardless, much of
if not all of the CWA is very likely to get into the warm sector
ahead of an approaching dryline from the west. This dryline should
serve as the focus for the development of deep convection. Exactly
when and where this occurs varies slightly amongst model guidance,
but should be to the west of the CWA across eastern Kansas or
western Missouri. The convective mode should be supercells at least
initially given about a 45 degree difference between the deep-layer
shear vector and the orientation of the dryline itself. The mode
should shift to more of a QLCS with time given very strong synoptic
scale forcing, but how fast this occurs (and where) is not certain.
Previous experience would suggest this process tends to be on the
quicker side of the envelope in these types of scenarios with very
strong mid/upper level ascent. All hazards are on the table for
Sunday, but backed surface winds (especially near the triple point
closer to central/northeast Missouri) and elongated, curved
hodographs suggest tornadoes would be our primary concern, both
with supercells but also with embedded QLCS mesovortices. Damaging
winds are more likely later on in the event after the transition
to a more linear mode, with large hail a threat with any
supercells. The amount of instability may tend to stay on the low
side however, which suggests very large hail (2+") is unlikely
except for the higher-end instability scenarios.
Speaking of instability, that will be the primary focus for Sunday
afternoon/evening in our area. Very strong (50-60+ knots) deep-layer
shear is all but a given just east/southeast of the track of the
negatively-tilted midlevel shortwave trough. Several factors could
help limit the instability however, including morning
showers/thunderstorms and residual low clouds. LREF probabilities
for SBCAPE of at least 500 J/kg are in the 30-60% range for the
southern half of the area, with a 10-30% chance of at least 1000
J/kg of SBCAPE. Higher-end CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg are in the
90-95th percentile range. This type of instability available very
well could lead to a significant outbreak of severe weather with a
much better chance of very large hail and tornadoes (including the
potential for strong ones). A lower end scenario would still bring
severe weather to the area, but would be less widespread (maybe more
confined to east central and southeast Missouri/southwest Illinois)
with a lower ceiling in terms of significance as well.
The threat for any severe weather should end by about 0600 UTC
Monday as the dryline sweeps eastward. Given a bit more delayed
timing of thunderstorms Sunday, did extend the flood watch until
0600 UTC Monday.
(Monday - Next Friday)
A quiet and cooler day is forecast on Monday as the trailing cold
front moves through the area by Monday morning. Dry weather with
high temperatures near to slightly below normal (mid 60s to low 70s)
is expected.
A return to a more active pattern appears likely for mid/late next
work week as subtle midlevel perturbations move across the mid-
Mississippi Valley. The good news is the westerlies are well to the
north, indicative of weak deep-layer shear. Multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are possible, but the chances of any
organized severe weather or heavy rainfall at this time appears very
low.
Temperatures should be anomalously warm overnight given plenty of
cloud cover. Highs each day though will be heavily dependent on the
timing of any rain/storms. That is why the spread between the
25th/75th percentiles of the NBM are quite large for this time
period, generally close to 10 degrees. Most days should be above
normal however given the warm starts each day. The 25th percentile
for instance is almost exclusively still slightly above
climatological normals.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025
A cold front is oozing south through north-central Missouri at
this hour, and is just now sparking a few cells of deeper
convection near central Missouri. Low-level stability is expected
to hamper convective initiation over the next few hours, which
will keep KUIN and the central Missouri terminals largely free
from any thunder threat. The St. Louis metropolitan terminals,
which are ahead of the front and are seeing a gradual
destabilization aloft (per ACARS soundings) have the greatest
threat for thunderstorms between 02-06Z tonight. After the front
passes, thunderstorms will be very unlikely. That said, waves of
moderate to heavy rain will persist through the night and most of
Saturday at the central Missouri and St. Louis metropolitan
terminals. This nearly-continuous stream of showers will work with
the cool post- frontal air to lower CIGs to IFR levels overnight,
where they will remain through Saturday. While an errant strike of
lightning is possible tomorrow, the abundant cloud cover and
persistent rain will likely keep any instability of note from
developing. KUIN is further removed from the axis of heavy rain,
which will allow for MVFR conditions to prevail as opposed to the
more degraded flight categories to the south.
MRB
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through late Sunday night for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Flood Watch through late Sunday night for Bond IL-Calhoun IL-
Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-
Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
821 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front moves north of the area tonight, with a cold front
moving through Saturday evening. High pressure builds over the
northeast Sunday into Monday. A frontal system then moves across
the region Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure returns for
Wednesday and Thursday with potential of another frontal system
for the end of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Gusty S winds diminish quickly this evening, but an occasional
gusts up to 20 mph will be possible along the coast through the
overnight, Otherwise, the pressure gradient remains tight over
the area tonight with high pressure shifting farther southeast
offshore and a low tracking to our north and west. The orientation
of these surface features will gradually shift the winds to
more of a SW/WSW direction. The area will become warm sectored
overnight with a warm front passing to the north. With some mid
level cloud cover tonight and winds staying up some, temperatures
will not be able to drop too much. Lows from NYC and north and
west will bottom out in the mid to upper 50s with Long Island
and CT mainly in the lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Towards daybreak, some shortwave energy rounding the top of a
mid-level ridge will pass overhead. Some CAMs are hinting at
some showers across the interior. Thinking the 12z HRRR is way
too aggressive and went more in line with the 12z ARW for PoPs
Saturday morning.
Aforementioned low pressure to our north will continue moving east
and drag a cold front toward the area. Out ahead of the front, deep
SW/W flow through the layer will help the area warm up. The NBM
deterministic temperature guidance continues to trend upward while
still falling at or below the NBM25th percentile for MaxT. Given the
anomalous warm air mass and the upward trending NBM have bumped up
MaxTs a few degrees. Used a blend of the previous forecast, the
NBM90th, the HRRR and bias corrected guidance. One concern though is
the amount of cloud cover that will be around. This may cause
highs to end up a few degrees low than forecast.
With the warm, moist airmass ahead of the cold front, the area looks
to become marginally unstable. MLCAPE values look to max out around
500J/kg, mainly across the interior. Some convective activity looks
to fire up along the approaching cold front/pre frontal trough and
move into our area. The activity is forecast to enter the Lower
Hudson Valley area around 5 to 7 pm. The thinking right now is any
of this earlier activity would be able to produce lighting with some
of the CAPE profile getting into the -10 to -20 layer. Forecast
soundings show a decrease in CAPE at this level after 8pm, so went
only showers after that. At this time, no organized severe
convection is expected.
The cold front moves through Saturday night and then high pressure
builds in through Sunday. Cooler and drier air mass filters in
and temperatures will be back down in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There has been little change to the overall forecast thinking in
the long term and have stuck close to the previous forecast/NBM.
Deep layered ridging will be in place Sunday night and gradually
slide east of the area by late Monday. A progressive shortwave and
associated frontal system will then move across the region Monday
night into Tuesday. The warm front will lift to our north early
Tuesday with the trailing cold front passage likely occurring
Tuesday afternoon and evening. The shortwave lifts over southeast
Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday leaving behind a SW flow aloft.
There were some hints at another shortwave for Thursday in previous
model cycles. However, the latest guidance has shifted towards
ridging, which potentially could last through the end of the week.
For sensible weather, mainly dry conditions are expected with the
highest probabilities of showers occurring Monday night into Tuesday
morning with the aforementioned warm front. The trailing cold front
appears to have limited moisture and lift to work with so it likely
comes through dry Tuesday afternoon and evening. Have left in low
probabilities (20-30 percent) Thursday night into Friday, consistent
with the NBM. However, it is very possible these probabilities are
adjusted down if ridging ends up persisting for the rest of the
week, similar to much of the 12z guidance.
Temperatures on Monday will likely be the coolest for this period
due to onshore flow from retreating high pressure. Highs will be a
bit below normal in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Temperatures
for the rest of the week look to range from the middle 60s to lower
70s, warmest away from the immediate coast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A warm front lifts through the area tonight, while a cold front
approaches from the west into Saturday.
Mainly a VFR forecast outside of any isolated to scattered
showers, mainly after 22Z Saturday. PROB30 was used to
highlight this chance. Confidence is too low at this time to
mention thunder, but best chance would be at KSWF.
Gusty S winds drop off this evening, but occasional gusts to 20
kt will be possible through the night at the coastal terminals.
SW LLWS 40-50kt at 2kft through the night. Wind will then ramp
back up after 12Z, becoming WSW-SW and increasing to 12-20kt
G22-30kt by late morning into early afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Once gusts drop off this evening, expect occasional gusts to
around 20 kt at KJFK.
Chance of an isolated thunderstorm Saturday evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR. WSW G25-30kt early. Chance of
showers in the evening, possibly a thunderstorm.
Sunday: VFR. NW wind gusts around 20kt possible.
Monday: VFR, then sub VFR possible at night with a chance of showers.
Tuesday: Becoming VFR with W winds.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories in effect on all waters tonight except
the western and central Sound and Peconic and Gardiners Bays.
Once nearshore gusts pick up Saturday morning then those areas
will be added to the Advisory. Additionally, all non-ocean
waters tonight could see a lull in wind gusts.
SCA conditions gradually lower Saturday night, with some 5-7ft
seas lingering in the ocean zones. Conditions will then remain
below SCA levels Sunday night through the middle of next week
with a relatively weak pressure gradient over the waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Although still windy Saturday, RH will be higher so not expecting
any headlines. Continue to exercise caution handling any potential
ignition sources, including machinery, cigarettes, and matches.
Any fires that ignite will have the potential to spread quickly.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-
332-340.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ335-338-
345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...DS/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
252 PM PDT Fri Apr 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Breezy northerly winds will continue cool and dry conditions
through today.
* Warmer weather returns for Easter weekend that extends the
beginning of Easter week with mainly dry conditions and afternoon
west breezes.
* Gradual cooling expected to begin mid next week with increased
shower chances by later next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The latest RAP analysis shows the CWA with a generally northerly
upper air flow being between an upper air trough to the east and an
upper air ridge to west. Current surface observations along with
satellite imagery report northerly surface winds underneath mostly
sunny skies with the exception of some afternoon clouds over the
far eastern portions of the CWA in central NV. Models show cooler
and drier air continuing to come in from the north with these
breezy north-northeasterly winds today. Winds in eastern Mineral
County during the late afternoon and evening hours may gust up to
around 40 mph before area winds become lighter tonight. Overnight
lows tonight expect to be in the lower to middle 30s range in the
valleys while higher elevations may low temperatures drop into
the 20s and lower 30s.
For Easter weekend, forecast guidance projects the western ridge to
have moved over the CWA by Saturday morning before moving out to
the east later in the day causing a westerly zonal upper air flow
to move in over the CWA going through Easter Sunday. This will
allow for dry conditions to continue with temperatures starting a
warming trend through the weekend. Daytime highs in the valleys
expect to be between the middle 60s and lower 70s on Saturday with
middle to upper 70s on Sunday. Sierra mountain communities have
forecast highs in the 50s to lower 60s on Saturday followed by
highs on Sunday in the middle 50s to middle 60s. While winds
expect to be mostly light each day, typical afternoon zephyr
breezes out of the west can be expected.
For Monday, models have a trough passing by the north of the CWA
causing the upper air flow to take a northwesterly direction. This
will lead to a slight interruption in the warming trend with daytime
highs dropping a few degrees from those seen on Sunday. But the
westerly zonal flow moves back in on Tuesday which continues the
warming trend. Eastern portions of the CWA around Fallon see a
20-50% NBM probability of exceeding 80 degrees on Tuesday (the
warmest day in the forecast period). Forecast guidance also shows
that there may be some shortwave troughs moving through northern
portions of CA-NV allowing for westerly afternoon breezes to
persist.
But on Wednesday and going through the rest of the week,
temperatures begin a cooling trend with model ensembles
forecasting a Pacific trough moving towards the CWA. Daytime high
temperatures may drop a few degrees lower compared to each
previous day until they are slightly below April`s normal
temperatures on Friday. While the models show low chances for some
light precipitation closer to the OR border on Wednesday and
Thursday, the best chances (15-35%) for precipitation next week
currently look to be in the Sierra on Friday. Current QPF totals
look to be minimal at this time, but will continue to monitor the
upcoming forecast runs with this future system. -078
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expect to persist for all REV TAF sites today and
through the weekend. North-northeasterly winds gusting 15-20 kts
continue at most REV terminal through this evening with the
exception of KMMH which sees winds from a north-northwesterly
direction. Following calm winds overnight, dry conditions are in
the forecast through the weekend with late day westerly breezes
gusting up to 15-20 kt on Saturday and up to 25 kt on Sunday. -078
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$