Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/16/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
513 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low chance (10-14%) of showers this evening across Cheyenne
(CO) and Greeley county this evening. 20-30% chance of
overnight strong storms Wednesday night east of Highway 25.
- Dangerous fire weather conditions forecast Thursday as a Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for portions of the area. A late
afternoon to early evening cold front will also lead to a wind
shift.
- Precipitation possible from Thursday night onward into the
upcoming weekend in the form of rain and snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2025
The surface high from last night continues to move off to the east
with surface troughing moving through the area which is turning
winds to the south and leading to breezy winds gusting around
30-35 mph. The winds are however forecast to taper off this
afternoon as we begin to lose the effects of 700mb jet leading
to minimal concerns for fire weather conditions despite RH
values falling into the upper teens to low 20s. This evening
continuing to watch a 700mb shortwave interact with the nose of
a low level jet which may lead to some shower or isolated
thunderstorm development mainly for Cheyenne county Colorado
and perhaps creeping into Greeley county. Very dry low levels
are again in place which looks to minimize how far east it will
progress along with meager mid level moisture in place so will
maintain silent (10-14%) chances of rainfall in the forecast for
now. Inverted V soundings are in place along with corfidi
downshear vectors around 50-55 knots which may support a rogue
wind gust of 50-55 mph during the dissipation stage of any
convection. Overnight low temperatures are forecast in the 40s
as a westerly winds are forecast to continue helping keep the
temperatures up overnight. Winds are forecast to remain breezy
especially across the east as the developing low level jet will
aid in continuous mixing as winds are forecast to gust around
30-35 mph throughout the night.
Wednesday, will see the region in between synoptic systems with
progressive troughing across the SW portion of the CONUS and
additional troughing across the NW CONUS. WIth the lack of
synoptic features the low and the mid level wind fields will
remain weak with westerly winds around 5-15 mph and sporadic
gusts around 20-25 with the most likely areas for the gusts
across Cheyenne (CO), Greeley and Wichita counties. As the
evening progresses another low level jet is forecast to develop
along with a weak shortwave coming off of the Cheyenne Ridge
vicinity. Similar to what was seen 24 hours ago with a
retrograding dry line through the evening am starting to think
that there will be some precipitation in the area currently
favoring the north and the east. I still continue to see a
window for an isolated strong to perhaps severe storm across
Graham, Norton and Red Willow counties along the nose of the low
level jet and the approaching wave. Hail of nickel to perhaps
quarter size would be the primary threat should this develop
(5-10% chance) due to steep lapse rates and EBWD of 50-60 knots.
However, the one variable that continues to lower my confidence
is the orientation of the low level jet and the corresponding
nose. The NAM is the most favorable for strong storms to develop
in our CWA with a more SW to NE oriented jet vs the RAP and
other guidance which has the nose pointed more towards central
and north central Kansas. This is important as if the RAP for
example were to pan out then any convection in our area would
not be able to utilize the 1000-1500 j/kg of MUCAPE present due
to weaker forcing versus the opposite scenario for the NAM.
Thursday, continues to look like an impactful fire weather day. A
surface low is forecast to develop across western Kansas with the
region being dry slotted. Winds across southern portions of the
forecast area forecast to increase from the southwest at 20-30 mph
gusting 45-50 mph as a very dry and warm air envelopes the area with
RH values falling into the single digits to low teens. A cold front
is also forecast to move through the area during the afternoon hours
Thursday leading to wind shift to the north. GFS and ECMWF both do
show pretty substantial pressure rises behind front on the
magnitude of 10-15mb over 3 hours which does look to continue to
lead to wind gusts up to 50 mph. If a fire were to be ongoing
during this wind shift then further unpredictability of fire
behavior would be expected. Due to this a Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for portions of the area. Still continuing to watch
for the blowing dust potential as well but as the previous
shift mentioned the 2-2.5km lapse rates remain very high which
continues to indicate that the dust will be filtered into the
atmosphere leading to more of a hazy conditions. NASASPORT
0-10cm soil moisture does show some mid teen soil moisture
across portions of Pueblo,Crowley and Otero counties in Colorado
so some stronger plumes may be possible to develop and work
there way into western portions of the forecast area but with
the higher 2-2.5km lapse rates I have my doubts if anything
impactful other than the from the air quality perspective can
come from this. Some localized reductions in visibility are
possible especially near open source regions especially across
souther portions of the forecast area but at this time an
impactful dust day looks unlikely. High temperatures for the
day remain a little tricky due to the front but most guidance
has a slower frontal passage so will be going a little warmer
with locales in the low to mid 90s; however there are a few
ensemble members that do show a quicker frontal passage so I
won`t be going overly aggressive for temperatures especially
for central portions of the area due to this large variance
which for example would be highs in the mid 70s with a quicker
passage versus the low 90s with a slower passage.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2025
A continued active but cooler pattern is forecast to continue for
the start of the extended period. A cooler air mass is forecast to
be in place in wake of Thursday`s cold front but continued troughing
across the western CONUS will continue to provide lift into the area
for Friday. The trough will continue to move eastward across the
Oklahoma/Texas panhandle region before ejecting northward and
phasing with a surface low across southern Kansas. The majority of
ensemble members favor a slightly further east phasing of the low
which makes me a little concerned for widespread precipitation
for the forecast area with eastern portions of the area being
favored with that track. However, there still does remain a
handful of members as well which has the low ejecting sooner
over western/west central Kansas which would support more of a
widespread and heavy precipitation event for the area. A
quicker ejection of the trough would also support a better
potential for snowfall across eastern Colorado and into extreme
northwest Kansas. As of now I would give the earlier ejection
of the trough around a 20% chance of occurring. Any
precipitation would come to an end Sunday night into Monday
morning before the next in a series of troughs approaches the
area Monday night and into Tuesday. The troughs next week may
have bit more moisture to work with so may need to keep an eye
on potential storms next week.
As for temperatures for the extended period cooler temperatures are
forecast for Friday and into the start of the weekend with highs in
the 40s to low 60s with some additional freezes and hard freezes
forecasted each morning from Friday through Sunday before we get to
a warming trend again to start the next work week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2025
VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. A few hours of low level wind shear will occur overnight
at KMCK associated with the nocturnal low level jet.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for COZ253-254.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...024
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
731 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A passing light shower may accompany a cold front this afternoon
through early this evening. Cool and dry high pressure will
build in behind the cold front tonight before shifting offshore
on Thursday, bringing a warmup for the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Winds are now primarily out of the north/northwest still gusting
around 20 mph. Gusts should gradually come to an end over the
next several hours with remaining clouds near the coast pushing
offshore.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid to high level clouds moving in from the west along and ahead of
a moisture-deprived cold front. The HRRR has finally joined the HREF
in depicting a small area of showers in the Cape Fear region as the
front pushes through this evening. Cool and dry advection overnight
will bring clearing skies and low temperatures that are about 5
degrees below climatology. Similarly tomorrow`s highs close to 70
represent about 5 degrees below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will migrate across the Southeast shifting off the
coast by late Thurs. With the center nearly overhead Wed night,
should see very weak winds and mainly clear skies leading to
decent radiational cooling. This will allow temps to drop into
the 40s with traditionally cooler spots down around 40 degrees.
With the upper ridge building in from the west, there will be a
chance of some passing high clouds riding across the area in the
NW flow aloft Thurs into early Fri. Overall, airmass will begin
to slowly modify, but temps will remain below normal for Thurs,
reaching into the lower to mid 70s most places. Thurs night
should drop to near 50, remaining a bit warmer than the previous
night with possibility of some clouds and light return flow
setting up by late Thurs into Fri.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will shift farther offshore Fri into the weekend.
This will lead to a southerly return flow setting up for the
weekend. There will also be increasing h5 heights as ridge aloft
sharpens up from the Gulf into the Carolinas. Overall, warm and
dry weekend ahead with dewpoints recovering from the 50s on Fri
back into the 60s Sat through Mon. Should not see much in the
way of clouds until late Sun and any pcp will hold off until Mon
into Tues as mid to upper trough pushes a cold front into the
Carolinas. Cooler and drier air will build in behind the cold
front Tue into midweek. Temps will be back in the 80s and
warming through the weekend with the next drop after the cold
front Tues.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Remaining clouds near the coast
will push offshore over the next several hours. At the same
time, N to NW winds will start to lose their gustiness with the
setting sun, becoming lighter by Wednesday morning. NW winds
will increase to 10-12 kts in the afternoon with gusts near 20
kts possible.
Extended Outlook...High confidence in VFR through the duration
of the week.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...An approaching cold front has tightened the
gradient across the area for a breezy afternoon that has been
supporting advisory thresholds. As it pushes through this evening a
turn to W and then NW expected all while wind speeds abate. The
expiration time of 22Z might be a bit optimistic but guidance
appears in good enough agreement that haven`t made changes at this
time. NW winds will continue into Wednesday, the lowered wind speeds
allowing for a continued gradual downtrend in wave heights.
Wednesday night through Saturday...
High pressure will move overhead Thurs before moving offshore
Fri into the weekend. This will maintain light winds 10 kts or
less through Fri. Initially NW but somewhat variable but as the
high shifts farther east we will see a persistent southerly flow
setting up Thur night through the weekend. Gradient tightens
slightly Fri night into the weekend leading to 10 to 15 kt
winds. Overall, fairly quiet marine conditions. Seas less than 3
ft should increase maybe a foot or so through the weekend.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
108-110.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-
252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...MBB/RGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1146 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lake enhanced snowfall diminishes across the east half this
evening.
- Gusty northwest winds between 35 and 45 mph persist along the
Lake Superior shorelines of Alger and Luce Counties where Wind
and Lakeshore Flood advisories continue until 8pm EDT this
evening.
- Widespread rainfall is expected late Thursday into Friday
evening. Rain and snowmelt will lead to rises on area rivers
and possible minor flooding on typically flood-prone rivers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025
GOES satellite imagery and RAP analysis reveal a vertically stacked
low spinning atop the Ontario/Quebec border. Wet snow has largely
diminished across the west half, save for some lingering light snow
showers. Across the east, lake enhanced snow persists, though the
latest KMQT radar loop shows this slowly meandering eastward.
Moreover, wind gusts have been elevated across the region,
particularly over the east where strong pressure rises and a lengthy
fetch across the lake has allowed 35-45 mph gusts in Grand Marais
and Munising, including frequent 50-55 mph gusts at Stannard Rock!
With winds calming across the Marquette county, have opted to expire
the Wind Advisory there. Wind and Lakeshore Flood advisories remain
in effect for Alger, Schoolcraft, and Luce counties through the
rest of the evening.
Heading into tonight, things should be quieting down as the low
continues its journey eastward. Ridging aloft and surface high
pressure nudge into the High Plains tonight, becoming centered over
the Upper Great Lakes by tomorrow morning. As this occurs, a much
drier airmass will filter in, scattering out skies and taming gusty
northwest winds. A chilly April night is in store as lows dip into
the 20s area wide, with cool interior spots likely seeing the mid to
high teens. Should skies clear by sunrise, some local cool spots
could bottom out to the low teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025
Fairly amplified pattern will evolve in the long term with a couple
of periods of rainfall. The period starts Wednesday on the upstream
side of the departing trough, with resulting subsidence resulting in
clearing skies and temps staying on the chilly side of normal
(especially near Lake Superior where highs are expected to remain
below 40). Deep positively tilted trough will evolve Thursday/Friday
from Hudson Bay down through Baja California, very slowly shifting
eastward. Isentropic lift on the leading edge will result in a
period of rain showers late Thursday into Thursday night moving west
to east across the UP, with embedded storms also possible as
Showalter indices go negative. By Friday, predictability becomes
lower owing to discrepancies in surface low position. Cluster
analysis shows various low centers within a broader SW/NE-oriented
low, leading to uncertainty with timing and location of steadier
rainfall on the northwest periphery of the low. There are also
implications for high temperatures and thunderstorm potential, as a
further NW low track could put a portion of the southern UP into the
warm sector. Should this happen, highs well into the 50s and 60s
along with potential for thunderstorms would be expected; otherwise,
it looks like more of a 40s/50s and steadier rainfall scenario. From
late Thursday through Friday, basin-average totals range from 0.25-
0.75 inches, but the 90th percentile is 1-1.25 inches. Rainfall and
snowmelt will lead to rises on area rivers, with possible minor
flooding on typically flood-prone rivers especially if some of the
higher percentiles verify.
The weekend looks dry at this point as the moisture plume downstream
of the trough shifts east. Another system which could bring
widespread rainfall appears possible for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025
MVFR cigs have scattered out everywhere expect SAW where they`ve
been a bit more persistent. So, will continue to carry MVFR mention
at SAW through Wed 09Z, but this could be adjusted with future
updates. After conditions return to VFR, though, they will
remain there for the duration of the TAF period as well as the
other TAF sites. Much the same with the northwest winds,
sustained speeds of 12 to 14 kts with gusts up to 20 kts linger
at SAW through Wed 09Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025
Northwesterly gales to 40 kt this afternoon taper off tonight, with
a ridge of high pressure briefly bringing light winds Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Southeasterly winds of 20-30 kt for
Thursday/Thursday night ahead of a low pressure system, strongest
off the tip of the Keweenaw where probability of gales tops out at
20-30%. Winds turn northwesterly at 20-25 kt behind this system for
Friday/Saturday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...Thompson