Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/13/25

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

 942 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread medium to high chances (60-95%) for rain tonight
  through Sunday night, with precipitation chances decreasing
  through Monday.

- Strong west-northwest winds around 30 to 35 mph with gusts up
  to 55 mph are expected in far southwest North Dakota late
  Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

- Some snow may mix in with the rain Sunday night through Monday
  morning, with little to no impacts expected.

- Dry conditions with temperatures trending warmer are forecast
  towards the middle of next week, followed by cooler
  temperatures and increasing chances for precipitation to end
  the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Rain is beginning to increase in coverage and intensity along a mid
level vorticity streak from the southwest corner of the state to
near Bismarck. Some lightning activity has also been observed near
Bowman County, though has yet to become fully established within
state boundaries. Overall, the forecast for tonight into tomorrow
remains in good shape. Radar trends are following the HRRR quite
nicely, so the PoP forecast was trended in its direction

UPDATE
Issued at 732 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Current conditions and trends along with the most recently
initialized high-resolution ensemble data were blended into the
forecast for this update. One aspect of the precipitation forecast
that is now more prominent is a lowering of probabilities associated
with an expected dry slot moving from west to east across southern
North Dakota during the day Sunday. We also increased our wind gust
forecast for Sunday afternoon, with concern of approaching warning-
criteria gusts (58 mph) in the far southwest. The RAP has been
consistently projecting a +50 kt low level jet wrapping around the
deepening low over North Dakota, with the jet cutting through
the southwest corner of the state. The 18Z HRRR confirms this
potential with simulated surface gusts around 50 to 55 kts. But
there are still concerns about the strength of boundary layer
mixing and what roles cloud cover and precipitation could play.
Therefore, we are bumping up our wind gust forecast to as high
as 55 mph for the Wind Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Quasi-zonal upper level flow continues across the Northern
Plains with a wave passing over eastern Montana. Showers
continue across the northwest this afternoon with an area of
showers are moving into the southwest. Precipitation chances
will increase this afternoon across the west and central as the
wave approach the state. There is a low chance for thunderstorms
in the southwest this afternoon as some instability creeps into
the region. Severe weather is not likely in the southwest. The
upper level low will move across the state tomorrow continuing
widespread precipitation across the region. There is around
around a 70 percent chance for 0.5 inch in the south central and
around a 50 percent chance for 1 inch of rain in the northwest
through Monday. There may be some snow mixed in the backside of
this system, but accumulations remain low. Another system will
trail this system bringing a chance of rain to the state Monday
as cyclonic flow aloft lingers from the passage of the upper
low. These two system will likely blend together Sunday night
into Monday morning.

Temperatures Sunday are forecast to cool off in the upper 40s
northwest to the lower 60s southeast. Monday temperatures are
forecast to sit in the 40s to lower 50s.

Strong northwest winds are forecast to pick up Sunday across
the southwest. There is a 40 to 45 kts 850 mbs winds that are
forecast to mixed down to the surface across the southwest and
portions of the south central. A tight pressure gradient from
the surface low will help sustain advisory level winds across
the southwest. Cloud cover could inhibit some mixing tomorrow
afternoon limiting gusts but sustains winds should not be
impacted as much. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been issued
for southwest and portions of south central North Dakota late
tomorrow morning into the early evening hours. Monday another
round of a windy conditions is possible as a northwest to
southeast orientated pressure gradient could lead to advisory
level winds in the James River Valley.

Temperatures will begin trend warmer by the middle of the week back
into the 60s with a slight chance of rain. However, cooler
temperatures will follow this warm up as the upper level pattern
begins to become more active by the end of the week.
Precipitation chances will also return by the end of next as
another system is forecast to move through the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

A low pressure system will bring periods of rain, MVFR to IFR
ceilings, and shifting and strengthening winds across western and
central North Dakota through the forecast period.

Precipitation: Rain is expected to become widespread across western
and central North Dakota this evening through tonight. There will
likely be a break in the rain for southwest (morning) and south
central (afternoon) North Dakota on Sunday, with showers
continuing across the north throughout much of the day. A few
thunderstorms are possible in southwest North Dakota later this
evening. There is also a low chance of snow mixing with rain in
western parts of the state on Sunday.

Ceilings: MVFR to IFR ceilings will spread across the state from
west to east later tonight, persisting across the north through the
day Sunday where probabilities for IFR are highest. Southwest and
south central North Dakota could experience a break in the low
clouds from west to east Sunday morning and afternoon.

Winds: Most areas will see east-northeast winds around 10 kts this
evening. A low pressure center moving through the state tonight and
Sunday will cause varying wind directions. The strongest winds on
Sunday are expected in southwest North Dakota, with west-northwest
winds around 20 to 30 kts gusting to around 35 to near 50 kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Sunday to 1 AM CDT
/midnight MDT/ Monday for NDZ040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Hollan




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Charleston SC

 1010 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail into Monday, followed by a cold
front Tuesday. High pressure will then return through the
remainder of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Closed mid-level trough sits along the New England/mid Atlantic
coast and extends down to off the southeast coast. Nose of
upper level jet axis and associated short-wave is diving through
western North Carolina and will continue to dive down through
the Carolinas over the next several hours. Meanwhile, some
semblance of a surface boundary extends from northeast Georgia
eastward across the Midlands with a sharp wind shift into the
north behind the boundary. Decaying sea breeze is pressing
inland and has managed to pop off a few showers this evening,
particularly along Charleston County into the Atlantic.

As mentioned above, upper level jet and associated mid-level
short-wave will be diving down through the Carolinas over the
next several hours. Despite loss of heating, there remains a
fair amount of higher base cloud cover across the local forecast
area, primarily the SC counties, and recent HRRR guidance
continues to kick off isolated shower activity until this
feature moves through. Low end pops have been added to the parts
of the SC forecast area accordingly.

Meanwhile, weak surface boundary is slated to drop down through
the region during the overnight hours. There may be an
associated temporary northerly wind and cool air surge as a
result.

Otherwise, cloud cover will eventually clear out during the
overnight hours with lows dipping into the lower to middle 40s
inland and lower to middle 50s along the coast and downtown
Charleston. A couple of upper 30s not out of the question in the
normally cold locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will maintain quiet weather and warming temps
Sunday through Tuesday. A cold front will sweep through Tuesday
afternoon but a lack of moisture and forcing should prevent any
precipitation with this feature. Gusty winds expected along the
coast Monday and Tuesday during the day due to a robust sea
breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A brief cooldown expected midweek behind the cold front, then
temps will moderate late week into the weekend as high pressure
rebuilds over the western Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
13/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Sea breeze boundary along with an upper level
short-wave advancing through the Carolinas this evening, could
pop off a few showers. VCSH has been added to the KJZI forecast
for now, and might be added to the KCHS forecast.


Otherwise, SCT-BKN VFR cloud cover will thin out overnight with
mainly clear skies thereafter.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Winds will steadily weaken over the waters this
evening, settling north around 10 kt overnight as high pressure
noses into the region. Seas will average 1-3 ft, highest over
the Georgia offshore waters and the nearshore waters from South
Santee River to Edisto Beach.

Sunday through Thursday: The main concern in the extended will
be the possibility of Small Craft Advisory conditions Monday
into Tuesday for Charleston Harbor and the Charleston County
nearshore waters. The southwest gradient will tighten up on
Monday between Atlantic high pressure to the east and an
approaching cold front to the west. We could see some 25 kt
gusts during this period.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Adam
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

 622 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures in the 60s and 70s today and tomorrow with breezy
  south winds diminishing this evening.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday, followed by
  lingering shower chances Monday with much cooler temperatures.

- Another chance for precip arrives to end the week with
  temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

It`s a nice April day, with widespread 60s and some 70s in
southwest Minnesota early this afternoon already. It is
blustery though, with sustained wind speeds approaching 30 mph
across portions of southern Minnesota. Temperatures and wind
gusts will decrease around sunset this evening.

A broad area of low pressure will develop east of the Rockies
under a mid-level shortwave trough tonight. As this system
moves through the Upper Midwest, a few periods of scattered
showers and storms look increasingly likely. Increased moisture
flow ahead of the low will advect PWAT values of 0.8+ inches as
far north as central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Forcing
along a somewhat stationary warm front Sunday should be enough
for some scattered early morning showers. A few hundred Joules
of MUCAPE ahead of the developing low could even be enough for
some morning convection. PoPs have increased for this period,
but still remain generally low (30-40%) due to limited areal
coverage and spread among the latest CAMS still. Based on our
conceptual model of this setup, we expect a scenario similar to
what the 12.12z HRRR produces - isolated showers forming over
central/western Minnesota, increasing in coverage as they
progress east towards western Wisconsin.

As the surface low continues northeastward, another period of
showers and storms are expected Sunday afternoon/evening as the
cold front sweeps through Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
Drier air may limit QPF amounts west of I-35 for this period,
with western Wisconsin having the best chance of seeing a couple
tenths of precip. We should dry out overnight Sunday, until
some wrap around forcing wrings out any moisture that`s left
over Monday. These scattered showers should mostly fall as rain,
but strong CAA (winds gusting up to ~35 to 40 mph) behind the
front could cool down some areas enough for a few rogue flakes
to fly later in the day. It`s a busy forecast, yet in the end
QPF really is quite limited outside of a few tenths across
western Wisconsin which has the best chance of seeing more
persistent/widespread showers and storms.

Following a quick 20 degree cooldown Monday, highs will
gradually rise through Thursday until another round of showers
and storms impact the region again. Timing may be key for storm
development, with current ensembles favoring convection forming
just west of us and then weakening overnight Thursday to more
of a shower setup. QPF looks to be more than our weekend system,
but not by a lot. The end of April continues to look active,
which may be the help we need to accelerate greening up across
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Gusty south to southeast winds will calm this evening into
tonight. Winds will not become calm, but the gusts will
diminish. As a low moves through on Sunday, winds will shift to
the west and then to the northwest. With all these shifting
winds there will be a period of LLWS tonight. As this shift
moves through there will be a chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms (better thunderstorm chance for MSP, RNH, MKT, and
EAU). Overall VFR expected for the majority of the period.
Reductions into MVFR and IFR associated with the rain as it
moves through. This will be mainly a ceiling drop, but in
thunderstorms it would also be a visibility drop. Timings vary
for rain and storm timing, so check individual TAFs for timing
details. Kept PROB30 for now as the best chances remain to the
north for precipitation.

KMSP...A period of LLWS is expected tonight with the shift in
surface winds coming later in the day on Sunday in the late
afternoon to evening. Continued with the PROB30 chances for
TSRA, but moved the timing back based on the latest model
trends.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 15-25G35 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NE bcmg SE at 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...NDC




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

 1128 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain overspreads the UP Sunday into Monday.

- Rain changes over to snow late Monday into Tuesday. Accumulating
wet snow could cause some travel impacts for the Tuesday morning
commute.

- Wind gusts to 30 mph are expected Monday, with the west half
seeing 50+% chances of 40 mph gusts over the east half Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Afternoon RAP analysis have midlevel ridge axis directed over the
Plains, supporting surface high pressure from the Great Lakes
southward through the lower Mississippi valley. On the perimeter of
the ridge is a shortwave currently moving through far northern
Ontario. Some associated mid/upper level cloud cover is moving
across Lake Superior and the western half of the UP, and some sites
in the Arrowhead are ticking off some light rain at times.
Otherwise, with plenty of sunshine this afternoon across our area,
temperatures are rising through the 50s and may even crack the 60
degree mark in the interior-western UP. The exception remains the
eastern UP, where southerly flow off of Lake Michigan is limiting
temperatures to the mid 40s, especially closer to the shoreline.

Tonight, as the shortwave continues its eastward trek, chances for
rain showers finally spread into the UP. CAMs are characteristically
generous with the coverage of showers, but model soundings show
plenty of dry lower-level air the first half of the night. Even if
lower levels can moisten up, midlevels look to briefly dry out again
the second half of the night before the next system  ejects out of
the Rockies Sunday. So, it remains to see whether that dry air will
win out. If anything can fall tonight, soundings are warm enough for
rain even as surface temperatures fall back into the upper 30s to
lower 40s. Expect totals to be quite light.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 404 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025

By 12Z Sunday, chances of rain will be spread across the UP as
ridging over the Upper Midwest is eroded by a shortwave traversing
far-northern Ontario and a shortwave approaching the Upper Midwest
from Montana. The latter shortwave will provide the most
impactful weather of the long-term forecast as it acquires a
negative tilt and begins phasing with another shortwave behind
it by Monday morning. Some lake enhancement in the wake of the
system and cool air from the cold sector of the system will
allow for snowfall to impact the UP Monday PM into Tuesday.
Ridging aloft then brings quiet weather to the midweek before
chances for disturbed weather return to the forecast leading
into the weekend, though spread is high at this time.

Beginning Sunday, light rain showers will primarily be over the
western UP, though chances of accumulations over 0.05" between 12Z
and 18Z Sunday are only 10-30%, so impacts will be low. With ~1000mb
low pressure approaching the UP in the late evening hours, chances
of rain ramp up significantly, and the NAMNest does suggest some
thunderstorm potential, but the NBM keeps it limited to the south-
central and along the state line. Meager instability will limit the
potential impacts of such a theoretical storm, with the HREF
struggling to produce 100 J/kg of CAPE anywhere in the UP.

Moving into Monday, the cold advection in the cold sector of the
system in addition to rapid pressure falls/rises as the low tracks
over Lake Superior (up to 9 mb/6 hr by Tuesday 00Z) will lead to
some gusty conditions. Euro probabilities to 40mph are widespread 40-
70% by 00Z Tuesday and above 90% for the east half by 18Z Tuesday.
With other model suites suggesting values much lower than that, will
elect to go with around 30 mph gusts Monday and near 40 mph
gusts for the east Tuesday. Once the hi-res guidance captures
the gusty conditions better, some consideration may need to be
taken in regards to a potential Wind Advisory.

The other weather impact from this system will be the lake enhanced
snow on the back end. With surface temperatures cooling to near
freezing Monday evening and sub-freezing Monday night, precipitation
will change from rain to a wet snow, boosted by 850 mb temperatures
falling to around -8 C over a Lake Superior that is around 2-3 C.
Euro EFI is elevated for this system but the shift-of-tails is low,
meaning that impactful conditions are expected (a "high floor"), but
extreme solutions are not (a "low ceiling"). Assuming a 10:1 ratio
(which will be too high early Monday but too low Tuesday, so roughly
balances out), Euro probabilities of 6 inches of snow are around 30%
for the highlands of Marquette and Baraga counties and the high
terrain of Ontonagon and Gogebic counties. Factoring in a changing
snow ratio leads to a forecast of near 4 inches of snow for the
Baraga/Marquette highlands and isolated amounts up to 3-4 inches in
the Ironwood vicinity, with around 1-3 inches expected widespread
for all counties along Lake Superior plus Iron County. A Winter
Weather Advisory for the two regions of higher snowfall would seem
appropriate, but as ensembles coalesce around the regions of best
forcing and the thermal fields available, headline decisions could
go either way, though a floor of at least some accumulating sloppy
snow impacting the Tuesday morning commute is pretty safe. Chances
and coverage of snowfall then gradually wane Tuesday as synoptic
support fades and temperatures aloft are not supportive enough for
pure lake effect snow.

A quiet Wednesday is then expected as ridging aloft pushes over the
region bringing high pressure over the region. Looking upstream, a
shortwave crossing the Rockies from the northwest will begin to brew
another lee surface low, but spread in the global deterministic
guidance as well as intra-ensemble spread is still fairly high for
this time range, resulting in surface lows passing through the Upper
Great Lakes anywhere from late Thursday night to well into the
weekend. This time of year, rain will be preferred, but there is
enough spread in the temperature guidance to support at least some
snow chances mixing in at times, though impactful snowfall is not
expected at this time and chances of accumulating freezing rain is
20% or less through the 21st. When precipitation is not expected to
occur, some attention to the fire weather forecast should be taken
as the NBM (which is notorious for not catching events of RH
dropping out in fair weather in the spring in the UP) is already
calling for RHs to fall to near 30% Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1128 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Mainly VFR conditions with periods of MVFR in any rain showers early
this morning at IWD and CMX, which have been highlighted with PROB30
groups. By early afternoon, though, MVFR will become the predominant
flight category as rain intensifies and becomes more widespread as a
shortwave continues its progression across northern Ontario.
Meanwhile, southwesterly winds will back to the southeast but remain
sustained at 5 to 10 kts. Also, began trending toward IFR at SAW
late in the period, but confidence remains too low at this time to
include mention at all TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Besides a few gusts to 20 kt out of the south over the eastern half
of Lake Superior tonight, wind gusts will be sub-20 kt through
Sunday night. Monday morning, in response to a low pressure passing
over the lake, wind gusts ramp up to around 25 kt, with winds out of
the west and northwest over the western half of the lake and winds
out of the southeast over the east half of the lake, particularly
along the International Border. By Monday evening, with the low
moving into Ontario, northwest winds ramp up to gales to 45 kt,
particularly in a band from Thunder Bay arcing by the Keweenaw to
Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore. Probabilities of storm force
gusts to 50 kt are around 20% by Tuesday morning. With high pressure
approaching, winds fall below gales Tuesday night and below 20 kt in
the west Wednesday morning and lakewide by Wednesday afternoon.
Because the duration of strong northwesterlies will be long, waves
build to 14-16 ft over much of the east half of the Lake by Tuesday
morning. Waves fall below 4 ft by Wednesday evening. High pressure
will keep winds below 20 kt for Wednesday night into Thursday, but
uncertainty in the timing of the next low pressure system to pass
through the region casts some unknowns on the strength of winds
towards the end of the week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...GS




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service New York NY

 728 PM EDT Sat Apr 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure south of Long Island tonight weakens and
dissipates, while a secondary low develops east of New England.
The low will then lift northeast on Sunday, followed by a weak
ridge of high pressure building in from the west Sunday night. A
frontal system will approach from the west Monday and impact
the region Monday night and Tuesday, with a cold frontal passage
expected late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Another
cold front will move through Tuesday night. High pressure passes
to the south Wednesday and Thursday. Another frontal system may
impact the region Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast on track as areas of light rain and drizzle continue.
The precipitation has become a little more scattered as drier
air has moved into the area as the upper low moves southwest
through Pennsylvania at 23Z.

Expect occasional light rain and drizzle through the night as
as the upper trough tracks slowly across the area. At the
surface, low pressure dissipates to the south of LI tonight,
with a secondary low developing east of New England. Weak low-
level lift and moisture with dry mid levels should keep the rain
fairly light. The 12Z HRRR indicated some steadier wraparound
rain moving into the area briefly toward daybreak, but this
scenario seems unlikely at this time with the surface low being
the farthest west of the guidance. However, plan to still keep a
chance of light rain and/or drizzle into the morning.
Conditions then dry out from west to east with the rain ending
by afternoon for most locations, but could linger across far
eastern LI and SE CT.

Overnight lows will drop into the mid and upper 30s with a very
small diurnal change. Highs on Sunday then climb into the 50s,
but still several degrees below normal with plenty of clouds to
start along with a northerly flow. NBM and MOS were fairly
close and generally accepted.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A weak high pressure ridge builds in from the west Sunday night
with clear skies and diminishing NW flow. Lows Sunday night
will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s, which is close to
normal. Growing season has started across the southern half of
the forecast area so will have to take a further look into the
potential for a frost advisory tomorrow night. At this time, it
looks too warm.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The forecast from Monday through Wednesday is fairly consistent with
the previous forecast with the timing and spatial movement of a
frontal system that impacts the region Monday night into Tuesday.
Mainly used the NBM deterministic parameters, except blended in the
90th percentile for winds and gusts Tuesday and Wednesday in the
wake of the two cold frontal passages, and the deterministic
under does the winds and gusts. The upper flow continues to be
progressive Monday into late in the week with the first upper trough
affecting the area Monday and Tuesday, with the trough axis moving
east of the region during Wednesday as heights slowly rise with
cyclonic flow Wednesday into Wednesday night. Weak upper ridging
passes through and flattens late Wednesday night through Thursday
night as surface high pressure passes to the south. Another
shortwave upper trough affects the area late Friday through
Saturday. Once again used the NBM deterministic Thursday through
Saturday, even for winds and gusts Saturday as timing of the cold
front is uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure slowly tracks to the north this evening and
overnight. Weak high pressure slowly builds in from the west
late Sunday.

MVFR and IFR continues to dominate the forecast this evening
through Sunday morning. With low pressure nearby, there still
remains some uncertainty with any fluctuation in flight
categories. General improvements to MVFR everywhere is expected
by 12z-15Z Sunday. VFR conditions don`t return until Sunday
afternoon, mainly after 18z.

The steadiest of the precipitation has moved out of the area
and now we have just some leftover -DZ, will will be possible
through the overnight period. Some rain may redevelop for
eastern terminals late tonight into early Sunday morning. The
main terminals impacted would be KGON and KISP.

NNE to N winds 10-20 kt with some gusts to 20-25 kt, the
highest winds along the coast. Any gusts should end around or
shortly after midnight with a N wind around 10-15kt persisting.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of flight category changes very uncertain.

Gusts may be occasional this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Chance of showers late at night.

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance of showers. W wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. NW wind gusts around 25 kt.

Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs are up on all waters but are expected to be dropped later
this evening for the non-ocean waters. However, the ocean will
take a bit longer for northerly gusts to fall below 25 kt and
seas are not expected to drop below 5 ft until Sunday afternoon.

Sub-advisory conditions are expected Monday through Monday night.
Then in the wake of a cold frontal passage Monday night into Tuesday
morning westerly winds may gust to around SCA levels across the
forecast waters. And by late day Tuesday ocean seas builds to 5 to 6
feet. SCA gusts continues across the forecast waters Tuesday night,
with elevated ocean seas. And in the wake of another cold front
Tuesday night, gusty west to northwest winds will be at or just
above SCA levels across the forecast waters Wednesday into Wednesday
evening, and slowly diminish late Wednesday night as high pressure
builds to the south. Also, ocean seas slowly subside below advisory
levels Wednesday night. Conditions will be sub advisory across the
forecast waters Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure passes
to the south.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts are expected through the
period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood statements have been dropped as water levels are
forecast to stay below minor coastal flood benchmarks. With
winds more northerly and water levels over forecast this
morning, this threat has diminished.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...