Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/10/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
629 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday due to continued
dry and windy conditions. Fires will start easily, spread
furiously and be difficult if not impossible to control. As a
result there is a heightened threat for wildfires.
- High temperatures will approach record values on Saturday.
Strong southerly winds will accompany the heat, leading to a
heightened threat for wildfires.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025
15Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated CWA is on
periphery of broad H% ridge and under the influence of strong NW
flow aloft. PV analysis/H3 jet streak indicates a short wave
trough moving into northeast Wyoming and the panhandle of
Nebraska. At the surface, cold front is well south of the
outlook area, roughly from a Lubbock to Kansas City line with
surface high pressure building into the region. Morning raobs
from around the area also indicate very dry air off the surface
and a fairly shallow moist layer, indicating dewpoints will
likely drop substantially as low levels mix out.
Limited weather concerns expected across outlook area due to very
dry airmass and amplifying ridge, resulting in mainly fire weather
concerns through Saturday morning.
Tonight-Thursday...Winds and cloud cover will be strongly diurnally
driven as surface high continues to build into the region. With very
dry air and light winds, think potential exists for strong
radiational cooling and plan on keeping temperatures on the cooler
side of available guidance, with little if any weather impacts
anticipated.
For Thursday... Another round of near critical fire weather
conditions is expected as strong east to west temperature gradient
is in place across KS and NE with sfc high center moving into
eastern Colorado. Driest air will likely be near center of the high,
but expect to see some overlap between driest conditions in the west
and stronger northerly winds in the east. While RH and Winds are
slightly out of phase with one another, think potential for Red Flag
Conditions is high enough for a watch in northeastern zones.
Winds and fire weather threats will diminish rapidly as center of
sfc ridge settles over the area allowing for another night of light
winds and very dry air. Expecting another chilly night with lows in
the lower to mid 30s but no significant weather hazards expected.
Friday-Friday night...Strong shortwave ridge will be centered over
region, bringing widespread subsidence and resulting dry conditions.
Lee trough will strengthen through the day with increasing
southern winds. While winds will be high enough to cause some
fire wx concerns, moisture advection due to the southerly return
flow should offset this concern.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025
The long term period is expected to be mainly warm and dry as a deep
upper level ridge moves over the Great Plains this weekend. The
ridge axis will move across the Tri-State area Saturday which will
be the warmest day of the period with near-record to record highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Near the surface a lee trough will
strengthen during the afternoon, leading to stronger southerly
to southwesterly winds over the area with gusts to 30 mph. There
is concern for elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions due to minimum relative humidity values as low as 9
percent along and west of a Benkelman to Goodland to Russell
Springs. Confidence is low to moderate in the winds gusting high
enough for red flag conditions to occur at this time, but it is
worth monitoring given the high temperatures. Overnight lows
are forecast to be in the upper 40s to 50s with a cold front
moving through Saturday night.
With a cold front and the lee trough moving over the area Saturday
night into Sunday morning, winds are expected to become
northwesterly and increase with gusts up to 35 mph possible through
the afternoon. GFS and ECMWF show some low level moisture moving
across Nebraska behind the front during the day and increasing
during the evening hours. Relative humidity values are currently
expected to remain around 20% for much of the area, but we could see
some mid to upper teens along and south of Highway 40 Sunday
afternoon bringing near critical fire weather concerns for another
day. High temperatures are expected to be in the 70s to lower 80s if
the current frontal timing holds. Any faster and we could be cooler
than forecasted. We could see a few showers and thunderstorm Sunday
evening into Monday with a 30-50% chance along and north of I-70.
Not currently expecting much for severe weather given the time of
day, but we will keep an eye on this over the next few days.
Overnight lows are forecast to be in the 30s to lower 40s.
For the first half of the week, a surface high is expected to move
over the Central High Plains as an upper ridge moves across the
Western Contiguous US. This will lead to a gradual warm up with high
temperatures ranging in the mid 50s to lower 60s Monday to the 70s
by Wednesday. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the low to mid
30s Monday night and increase to the 40s across the area Wednesday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025
For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected at both
terminals. Skies are forecast to remain clear below 10000ft.
Surface winds are forecast to lighten near the start of the
period when the inversion develops with speeds dropping to
around5-8kts. Wind direction may vary a bit between 290 & 060.
Winds will then pick up shortly after sunrise (~14-15Z) with
speeds returning to around 15-20 kts and gusts to 30 kts from
the northwest.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 123 AM MDT Wed Apr 9 2025
Here are the record high temperatures for Saturday, April 12th along
with the current forecasted highs:
Record High Current Forecast
Goodland, KS................ 93F in 2023 92F
McCook, NE.................. 93F in 2023 89F
Burlington, CO.............. 95F in 2023 90F
Hill City, KS............... 93F in 2011 89F
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for KSZ003-004-016.
CO...None.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...KAK
CLIMATE...JN
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
817 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers will move across the area this evening, then depart into
Indiana shortly after midnight. While not all locations will see
rainfall, a few spots may pick up around 0.10.
- Patchy fog is expected late tonight into Thursday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
01z/8pm surface analysis shows a 1012mb low over western Illinois.
Scattered light showers have been ongoing across parts of the KILX
CWA for the past few hours: however, they have become more
widespread in the vicinity of the low and its associated frontal
boundary over the last hour or so. The latest radar imagery shows
numerous showers centered over the Illinois River Valley...and
even a few lightning strikes south of Quincy. MUCAPEs were essentially
zero on both the 00z KILX and KDVN upper air soundings: however,
SPC mesoanalysis shows 200-300J/kg nosing into western Illinois.
NAM forecast soundings indicate elevated instability will increase
everywhere east of the Illinois River this evening, so would not
be surprised to hear a few rumbles of thunder with the showers as
they increase in areal coverage and push east across the area.
Based on the latest trends and model data, it appears the front
will pass into Indiana shortly after midnight, bringing an end to
any lingering showers. Am still concerned about possible fog
development late, especially as skies partially clear and N/NE
winds behind the front decrease to around 5kt. While conditions
will not be ideal for fog development, CAMs continue to focus
lowered visbys north of I-74 after 3am...with the fog spreading
southward across I-74 toward dawn. Have therefore maintained fog
mention across the northern two-thirds of the CWA late tonight
into early Thursday morning. Will monitor trends, but do not think
a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed.
Barnes
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop
later this afternoon in west central IL as a surface low and
attendant cold front approach the area. These will sweep across the
area this evening, departing into IN in the late evening. Up to a
few hundred J/kg of elevated CAPE will likely be enough for a few
thunderstorms, but not for any severe storms. Breezy south winds
that have gusted up to will subside this evening both due to
diminished mixing and weaker gradients associated with the frontal
zone.
Overnight, a col region looks to set up over central IL, associated
with a break in precipitation, light winds, and diminished cloud
cover. This could be favorable enough for a radiational cooling
setup allowing patchy fog to form. While not unanimous, several
models depict lowered visibility consistent with fog, with a 30-50
percent chance (30-50 percent of members) of lower than half mile
visibility across central IL north of I-70.
Another shortwave will be rapidly approaching from the NW early
Thursday. Given colder air aloft moving in behind this evening`s
cold front, conditions should destabilize enough to achieve several
hundred to perhaps over 1000 J/kg SBCAPE by early afternoon. The
highest values look to be south of I-70, where an overlap with
strong deep layer shear of 30-40 kts is also forecast for the early
afternoon, and has prompted a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms
in portions. Higher values of instability and shear rapidly shift
southward during the late afternoon, limiting the window of
potential for severe weather this far north, but CAMs continue to
slowly diminish scattered shower and thunderstorm activity through
the afternoon and early evening. Isolated 1 inch accumulations are
noted in various high res model simulations indicating potential
for isolated pockets of precipitation.
High pressure will build over the area Friday through the weekend,
providing for dry conditions. However, temperatures will be quite
cool Friday as cold northerly flow trails the recent system, and
winds look to become light and variable Friday night as surface high
pressure shifts over the area. This could bring a setup for another
freeze to portions of the area. With the growing season developing
across the area, this will have to be watched closely.
The next precipitation looks to be Monday as a cold front trailing a
low moving through the upper Midwest pushes through the area. Timing
of this front will have a strong impact on temperatures Monday, as a
later timing could produce temperatures well into the 70s, perhaps
over 80, and an earlier timing could limit highs, struggling to
reach 60. For now, have trended high temperature forecast down
several degrees to highs around 70 for Monday and we will see if
the trend toward an earlier frontal passage continues with later
model simulations.
37
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
An area of low pressure will track across south-central Illinois
this evening...bringing scattered showers to the terminals. Based
on the latest radar imagery and 22z HRRR output, have opted to
include VCSH at all sites...with the shower risk ending from west
to east between 02z and 05z. Winds will become E/SE over the next
hour or two, then will back to N/NE after the low passes overnight
into Thursday morning. The primary aviation forecast challenge
will be potential fog development toward dawn. CAMs are not in
very good agreement and with at least partial cloud cover and light
winds expected to continue through the night, confidence for
widespread visby reductions is low. HRRR/RAP/GFSLAMP all loosely
agree that fog will form across north-central Illinois north of
the I-74 corridor after 09z...then will spread southward across
I-74 by 11z/12z. Given the general consensus in this area, have
carried a TEMPO group for visbys down to 1/2 mile at both KPIA and
KBMI between 11z and 13z. Further south, have only taken visbys
down to around 2 miles around sunrise. Once the fog lifts, a
period of MVFR ceilings will be likely along I-74 before VFR
conditions return everywhere after 17z.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
634 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
- Significant river flooding will continue through the end of the
week.
- A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms is in effect for the
entire Mid-South tomorrow. Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary concerns.
- Dry and pleasant outdoor conditions return this weekend with
dew points mostly well below 50 degrees.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
Milder conditions will return overnight as southerly winds remain
elevated across the Mid-South, keeping temperature minimums in
the low-to-mid 50s. By tomorrow, the 50-degree isodrosotherm will
have lifted across most of the area, while temperatures quickly
rise into the mid-to-upper 70s. Partly cloudy skies will allow for
extra insolation/instability while mid-level lapse rates above 7
C/km set the stage for deeper convection. Thunderstorm updrafts
will be displaced enough for large hail formation, with high-
resolution guidance suggesting a more scattered storm mode that
quickly shifts southeastward, potentially producing damaging winds
in the process. Post-frontal northeasterly winds will pick up
overnight tomorrow, clearing skies overnight for temperature
minimums in the mid-to-upper 40s.
Quiet, pleasant outdoor conditions are on the way for the weekend
as ridging shifts across the Mid-South with a quick warm-up into
the lower 80s by next week ahead of yet another frontal boundary
arriving by next Monday. Long-range guidance suggests this will
provide the next (brief) chance of rain and a return back to
near-normal outdoor conditions for this time of the year by the
middle of next week (temperature maximums/minimums in the lower
70s/upper 40s respectively). /16/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
VFR to prevail overnight with a relatively dry airmass. Boundary
layer will partially decouple after sunset, as a 35KT low level
jet develops around 1000 FT AGL. Some of this momentum will mix
to the surface, likely producing a few gusts. The low level jet
will move out of the area by 12Z, as a prefrontal pressure trough
passes.
18Z HRRR model has backed off slightly on TSRA coverage Thursday
afternoon. But conditions remain sufficiently favorable to warrant
a PROB30 TSRA. TSRA window should exit MEM TRACON before the
start of the Thursday evening inbound push.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...SHV
AVIATION...PWB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1055 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1055 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
- Ongoing river flooding remains a concern, but levels are
gradually falling.
- Showers will return tonight into tomorrow morning, with
increasing thunderstorm potential Thursday afternoon. A few
storms could be severe Thursday afternoon and evening, posing
threats for damaging winds and hail.
- The forecast for this weekend calls for sunny skies and mild
temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
A clipper system is working into the Ohio Valley per regional
water vapor imagery and RAP mesoanalysis. A few thunderstorms are
observed in souther Illinois where a surface low is currently
depicted. This overall system will continue an east-southeast
track toward the Appalachians overnight, and clouds/rain chances
will increase across Middle TN as a result.
For tomorrow, a subsequent disturbance aloft is forecast to swing in
behind the initial clipper system. This will provide forcing for
ascent over-top a warm sector characterized by dewpoints in the low
50s. Cold temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates will foster 1,000-
2,000 J/kg SBCAPE during peak afternoon heating, per various
forecast soundings. Flow aloft will also provide 40-45 kts westerly
0-6 km shear vectors. All things considered, we expected scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front, with the
strongest storms capable of producing hail and damaging wind gusts.
Activity is expected to dwindle by 10 PM with loss of instability
and associated cold pooling effects. Some showers, perhaps some
storms, could re-appear on Friday afternoon as the primary upper
trough begins a large dip into the eastern CONUS, but parameters
don`t support any severe weather.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
High pressure will dominate the weather in our region Saturday and
Sunday with highs in the 50s and 60s NW to N winds. High pressure
will move east of us Sunday night, and we`ll get a big warm-up on
Monday with a developing ridge and southerly winds. Forecast highs
on Monday are in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Guidance continues
to suggest a fast-moving cold front Monday night into Tuesday which
will bring the next chance for rain followed by another cool-down on
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the forecast period. A
quick moving system will move through the terminals Thursday
morning with a wind shift from the SSW to the W/WNW. SRB and CSV
have the highest likelihood of seeing a shower from this wave. In
the afternoon, scattered showers and storms are expected to
develop after 21z and possibly impact BNA/MQY/CKV. Tempo -tsra
groups were added to those sites. After the front moves through
during the morning winds will be around 10 kts out of the W/WNW
for the remainder of the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 50 74 49 62 / 40 60 40 50
Clarksville 50 73 46 60 / 40 50 30 30
Crossville 46 64 44 55 / 20 80 50 70
Columbia 48 75 46 63 / 20 60 40 40
Cookeville 47 67 46 57 / 30 80 60 60
Jamestown 46 63 44 55 / 40 80 60 60
Lawrenceburg 48 73 46 62 / 10 60 40 40
Murfreesboro 47 73 46 62 / 20 60 50 50
Waverly 50 74 46 61 / 30 40 30 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Reagan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
855 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will extend over
central North Carolina through tonight as it pushes further
offshore. An approaching low pressure system will bring unsettled
weather Thursday afternoon through Friday. A cool air mass will hold
over the region through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 855 PM Wednesday...
Very minimal changes needed to the forecast this evening. Surface
high pressure analyzed just off the Mid Atlantic coast will continue
to nose SW through the eastern Carolinas, and while a weak inverted
trough is noted off the Southeast/FL coast on the RAP analysis, both
it and its attendant lower clouds are well to our SE and unlikely to
reach our SE sections tonight. Skies are mostly clear at this
hour in central NC, although considerable mid and high level clouds
ahead of the Midwest shortwave trough are currently streaming across
the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, and as this wave dives ESE
tonight, clouds will increase across the NW late. Elsewhere, skies
will remain fair to clear, with winds remaining light. Decent
radiational cooling, mainly over the E, will allow for cool lows in
the upper 30s to low 40s, most mild in the NW with the arrival of
clouds late. Isolated spots in the NE may drop to 35-36F tonight,
but widespread frost should not be an issue, based on latest
guidance and observed trends. -GIH
Previous discussion from 330 PM: Surface analysis depicts ~1030 mb
high pressure beginning to push off the VA and Delmarva coasts which
will continue to ridge SW into central NC through tonight. Looking
aloft, zonal flow and mild height rises will prevail in the wake of
a couple shortwaves depicted on water vapor imagery, one exiting the
Canadian Maritimes and another east of the FL/GA/SC coast. This
pattern is bringing another dry and sunny day to central NC. With
similar low-level thicknesses to yesterday, expect this afternoon`s
highs to again range from the mid-to-upper-50s in the far NE to mid-
60s in the far SW, which is around 8 to 14 degrees below normal.
Expect increasing and lowering clouds late tonight in the NW in
advance of the next mid/upper trough diving SE into the TN Valley,
as an associated surface low moves east across IL/IN/OH. This will
push the surface high NE into the Atlantic, switching the low-level
flow over central NC to an E/SE direction and beginning to advect
higher dew points into the region. This combined with the clouds
mean tonight`s low temperatures will be not be as chilly as this
morning but still slightly below normal, mostly ranging from the
upper-30s to lower-40s. While the NW Piedmont should only drop to
the lower-40s, statistical guidance particularly the MAV shows some
lows around 33-36F can`t be totally ruled out in the usual cool
outlying spots of the NE Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain where
cloud cover will be less. However, the ECS and especially MET are
warmer, and given that plus some clouds potentially making it that
far east, confidence was not high enough to warrant a Frost Advisory
for tonight. Still, it may not be a bad idea to protect sensitive
plants if you live in those areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Wednesday...
* Showers and isolated storms likely to return Thursday.
A deep trough and associated low pressure will be approaching the
region from the west on Thursday, bringing rain and potential storms
to the region starting Thursday afternoon. Currently, no severe
weather is expected as instability looks to be low, especially as
the best rain chances come in the evening hours to overnight. This
can also be seen by CAPE values less than 200 J/kg shown in BUFKIT
soundings. However, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.
With respect to rain totals, models and their ensembles are showing
up to 0.5 inch for most of the region, with locally higher amounts
possible by Friday morning. High temperatures Thursday afternoon
should rise into the mid 60s in the northwest to at or just above 70
in the south. Low temperatures should return to 5 to 10 degrees
above normal on Thursday night, in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Wednesday...
By Friday morning, a surface low will be in the vicinity of
Charlotte and will slowly move northeast through the day - it will
still likely be over the northeastern portion of the forecast area
by sunset. This will bring widespread showers to the region along
with some thunderstorms. Considering the overcast skies that are
expected, it will be hard to realize much instability. The overnight
issuance of the SPC convective outlook had a marginal/level 1 threat
for severe thunderstorms generally along and east of the I-95
corridor, which aligns with the higher instability. Shear values
will also be higher closer to the coast. Most of the rain will come
on Friday, with the chance of showers decreasing Friday night as the
low moves offshore. However, the associated upper low arriving after
the surface low`s passage remains nearly stationary over eastern
Virginia/North Carolina Saturday and Saturday night. While
deterministic models are not hinting at much precipitation during
this time period, ensembles including the SREF, GEFS, and EPS all
show higher probabilities of showers and have gone above the NBM on
Saturday, keeping at least a slight chance of showers everywhere.
Surface high pressure will build in behind the departing low on
Sunday, and a pair of cold fronts is expected to move through next
week, one early Tuesday and a second early Wednesday. Considering
the lack of moisture with these fronts, have maintained a dry
forecast for now, but that could change.
Expect below normal highs on Friday with the widespread showers and
even cooler temperatures on Saturday with the upper trough -
locations north of US-64 will likely remain in the 50s on Saturday.
A moderating trend begins on Sunday, with temperatures climbing
above normal Monday and Tuesday before falling back to near normal
values on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 655 PM Wednesday...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some sub-VFR
clouds will be possible in the vicinity of the Triad terminals Thurs
morning, but confidence is low on a ceiling developing below 3,000
ft. A band of showers and sub-VFR vsby is expected to move through
the Triad terminals late Thurs afternoon into the evening with a
gradual weakening trend as it approaches RDU/FAY. Surface winds will
be light and variable to calm tonight, generally out of the S to SE,
turning more southerly through Thur afternoon with gusts into the
mid teens at GSO/INT.
Beyond 00z Fri, MVFR and IFR cigs will likely become more widespread
behind this lead band of rain Thurs night and continue into Fri
morning. Widespread rain and isolated storms are expected to develop
Fri morning and continue through Fri evening as an area of low
pressure traverses the area. Dry high pressure will shift into the
area Sat into Sun bringing a return to VFR.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/Danco
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Swiggett