Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/07/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
611 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025
- Below freezing overnight temperatures are forecast for tonight
across the Panhandles.
- Near to above average temperatures and dry conditions are likely
through next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Northerly flow prevails over the Panhandles according to the
latest H500 RAP analysis as the trough associated with the low
pressure system that brought winter weather to the region exits to
the east. Skies have cleared at this point and temperatures have
begun to rebound into the upper 40s to low 50s and all locations
should reach the 50s for highs today. Even though some locations
received 5+ inches of snow, the snow has quickly gone away for
most areas and should be completely gone by tonight or early
tomorrow. With that being said, snowpack will not have any impacts
on temperatures for today or tomorrow. Given temperatures only
reaching the 50s today and with clear skies tonight, temperatures
should once again drop down below freezing for overnight lows.
Temperatures should rise to slightly below average for tomorrow as
surface high pressure remains over the area. This will lead to a
rather nice spring day, with highs in the 60s, light northerly
winds around 10 mph, and clear skies. Some locations may once
again drop down to near freezing on Monday night as we will have
good radiational cooling due to clear skies and light winds.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Broad upper level ridging is forecast to prevail across the
western CONUS through the long term forecast period. This would
lead to northwesterly to northerly flow over the CWA through the
remainder of the work week. A low pressure system should dig
southward from the Northern Plains towards the Midwest, just to
the east of the CWA. This feature should bring a weak front down
the Plains with a subtle cooldown on Thursday. Highs Tuesday
through Friday look to be in the 70s even with the cooldown on
Thursday that will likely be unnoticeable. The upper level ridge
axis should shift eastward and be oriented across the Plains this
weekend which will lead to increasing temperatures into the 80s if
not some 90s. Temperatures will likely remain above average during
this time frame with dry conditions across the Panhandles.
Muscha
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025
VFR conditions are anticipated through the next 24 hours. Winds
will remain around 10 kts or less throughout as winds change
gradually from southwesterly tonight northerly tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 30 65 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 27 69 35 81 / 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 29 65 35 78 / 0 0 0 0
Borger TX 30 69 38 81 / 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 29 67 36 79 / 0 0 0 0
Canyon TX 27 65 35 77 / 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 31 66 39 78 / 0 0 0 0
Dalhart TX 27 66 33 78 / 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 27 67 34 80 / 0 0 0 0
Hereford TX 27 64 34 77 / 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 30 68 37 79 / 0 0 0 0
Pampa TX 30 66 39 78 / 0 0 0 0
Shamrock TX 30 68 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
Wellington TX 30 67 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...52
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1022 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Prolonged stretch of below normal temperatures this week as a
persistent upper trough swirls over the northeast US.
* A surface low will bring rain (south) and snow (north) tonight
into Monday, with an inch or two of snow possible on grassy
surfaces.
* Reinforcing cold front to bring cold temperatures and gusty
winds Monday night and Tuesday; a chilly/dry midweek precedes
moderating temperatures and another storm system Thursday -
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers have increased over central PA the last 90 minutes as
baroclinic zone tightens in response to approaching 5H shear
axis and sfc low pressure waves rippling through VA along a
nearly stationary front late this evening. With moisture
increasing and temps continue to fall, rain should mix and change
over to snow and or sleet/ice pellets over NW PA shortly, as
850mb temps have already fallen to -5 to -6C over NW PA. Meanwhile,
a 6 to 10 hour period of rain is expected in the south while in
between, mixed rain and wet snow/sleet across portions of the
Central Mountains and Middle Susquehanna Region.
Up to 2 inches of accumulation is possible across the higher
terrain of Northern PA (with the target area appearing to be
near and up to 25 NM north of I-80 in NCentral PA), mainly at
elevations over 1500 feet above sea level. With such warm
antecedent surface temps, a majority of the accumulation should
occur on grassy/elevated surfaces with limited impacts to
roadways. Even still, motorists should be alert for slick spots
overnight into Monday morning. Drier air working into Central
PA on Monday behind departing low pressure will bring an end to
any lingering rain or snow showers, though skies will remain
mostly cloudy throughout the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another shortwave tracking north of Pennsylvania Monday night
propels a sharp cold front through the area. Instability
profiles support locally heavy brief snow showers along the
front though with the best moisture and isallobaric forcing
passes north of the New York border, the best chance of any
light snow will be over the northwest mountains.
Much colder air works in behind the cold front, with ensemble
mean 850 temps of -8 to -12 C supporting high temperatures on
Tuesday in the 30s and 40s (which will likely be the coldest
daytime air felt until the Autumn across the region). This
airmass will also be cold enough to allow for at least a few
lake effect and upslope snow showers through early Tuesday
afternoon before subsidence increases as high pressure builds
in. Snowfall amounts will generally be less than an inch. Gusty
winds during the day on Tuesday will make it feel very chilly
with apparent temperatures in the teens and low 20s across the
northern and western mountains.
Northwest winds could gust 20 to 30mph in the wake of the
front. Downslope flow will promote decreasing clouds southeast
of the Allegheny Front (east of I-99 and south of I-80) on
Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday will feel more like a winter day than
a spring day, though the April sun angle will help quite a bit
for parts of southeast PA.
Wednesday will bring some improvement from Tuesday`s wintry
chill, as high pressure moves overhead and winds slacken off.
The high moves east of the area by late in the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As high pressure moves offshore Wednesday night, return flow and
overrunning move into western PA late Wednesday night, bringing
spotty light snow or mixed precip to some into Thursday morning.
We`ll have to watch how much QPF accompanies this return flow,
as there could be some slick spots around Thursday morning.
This system appears to stall over the region THursday nighit
into Friday as another area of low pressure organizes over the
Tennessee River Valley and lifts up over PA Friday night and
Saturday, with another soaking rainfall possible. Depending on
the evolution, the precip could be mixed or fall as some wet snow
at times across the higher terrain of the north and west,
considering 850 mb temps hovering in the 0 to -3C range, plenty
of cloud cover and a predominant NE to northerly LLVL flow of
cold air at the surface.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Increasing moisture in the lower-levels is progged for all
model guidance, allowing for high (> 90%) confidence in all
airfields across central Pennsylvania experiencing restrictions
overnight into Monday morning. Current conditions outline VFR
across eastern airfields (with one MVFR observation at MDT by
the thinnest of margins), which is progged by a consensus of
HREF and RAP model guidance through 04Z-05Z. GLAMP remains
fairly optimistic with respect to restrictions keeping IPT VFR
throughout the whole period; however, given model conditions
are not the most consistent in the near-term have decided to
trend away from this guidance and keep MVFR ceilings as the most
likely scenario at UNV/IPT, onset around 05Z Sun +/- 2hrs. RAP
model soundings continue to outline ample low-level moisture at
all other airfields, thus IFR looks increasingly likely,
especially at BFD/JST (80-90% confidence) where a transition to
snow remains most likely.
Consensus of model solutions outline LIFR in the cards at JST
overnight, with ample low-level moisture and an eventual
transition to snow. Low visibilities and ceilings will remain
possible; however, expect restrictions to mainly be based on
ceilings where RAP RH cross-sections outline ceilings ~100-400ft
AGL in the 06Z-15Z timeframe. High confidence (~80-90%) in
ceilings prevailing MVFR sometime between 06-08Z and continuing
through 12Z; however, lower confidence (~40-50%) after 12Z Sun
as model solutions do slightly deviate. With little in the way
forcing out low-level moisture, have decided to keep low-level
ceilings in through the early afternoon at JST although lower
confidence into the later stages of the morning/early stages of
the afternoon.
Similar to JST, improvement appears fairly slow during the
morning hours on Monday with MVFR/IFR conditions persisting
through the later morning/early afternoon hours (~15-18Z Mon)
everywhere except BFD. Low-level dry air begins making way into
BFD earlier compared to other airfields, and consensus of
HREF/RAP model data promotes chances for VFR conditions as early
as 12Z Mon. Across the eastern airfields (IPT/MDT/LNS) expect
low-level moisture to remain in place throughout much of the TAF
period, with best chances for prevailing VFR after 21Z Mon.
Outlook...
Tue...Restrictions likely NW Mtns with snow showers possible.
Gusty winds areawide.
Wed...No sig wx/VFR conditions expected.
Thu...Rain enters W, overspreads E. Restrictions possible.
Fri...Rain, restrictions possible.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Lambert/DeVoir/Bauco
AVIATION...Banghoff/NPB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
931 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Brief Burst of Snow Monday Morning
- Rain/Snow Chances Midweek
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
No changes to the going forecast at this time but it should be
noted that the new 00Z HRRR has backed off considerably on
tomorrow morning`s quick snow burst with the cold frontal
passage. Will wait for complete 00Z guidance before considering
any adjustments to pops, timing, and QPF/SnowAmts. Either way,
little in the way of impacts expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
- Brief Burst of Snow Monday Morning
A quick moving cold front will swing through Monday morning.
Plenty of lift with this front with saturation reaching into the
dendritic growth zone. This will bring a brief burst of snow
across the area with amounts under an inch. With the warm surface
temperatures not expecting snow to really stick, any accumulations
would be limited to grassy surfaces. Visibilities though are
expected to fall impacting portions of western and central
Michigan for the morning commute.
Some light lake effect snow may develop and bring additional light
snow toward the US-10 corridor. Slightly higher snowfall
accumulations are possible in Mason and Lake counties with amounts
in the 1 to 2 inch range.
- Rain/Snow Chances Midweek
Positive vorticity advection moves in for Wednesday along with
some convergence with the low level jet. This will bring a round
of rain/snow showers through Thursday as a low pressure system
passes us to the south. Temperatures look to warm enough where we
see a transition to all rain Thursday afternoon before dry
conditions return.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 711 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Impacts to aviation will be minimal for the first 6-8 hours as
lingering daytime cumulus and mid-level clouds exit the area.
Tonight, a cold front will sweep across the area reaching near
KLDM near 09z, KMKG by 11z, and continuing southeast through the
morning. A 1-2 hour window of IFR snow showers and MVFR cigs is
expected at each TAF site with this front, though the short-term
models still vary by an hour or so on when these snow showers
arrive. There may also be a brief 1-2 hour window of LLWS with the
front due to the change in wind direction at the surface ahead of
aloft. However with west to northwest gusts reaching 20-30 knots
will preclude LLWS from the TAFs at this time given frequent gusts
put all terminals below criteria. Cigs raise to VFR by 18z,
though lake effect snow showers develop potentially bringing MVFR
or lower conditions to any terminals if they directly impact one.
Confidence in direct impacts is low so will stick with prevailing
VFR. Gusty northwest winds also continue through the end of the
TAF window.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
A cold front will move through Monday morning with northwest winds
gusting to 30 knots. A brief period of gales is possible Monday
morning and early afternoon. Winds and waves will be slow to drop
lower than Small Craft Advisory levels Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
The Red Cedar at East Lansing is slowly falling as expected and is
anticipated to drop below flood stage tonight. The Maple River at
Maple Rapids has risen above flood stage and is forecast to remain
at flood stage through Monday before falling.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Meade
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...RAH
HYDROLOGY...RAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
741 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Latest model guidance and satellite analyses show a large trough/low
complex migrating across the C CONUS with an associates sfc frontal
boundary moving into the SE states. Meanwhile, SoFlo remains under
the influence of the western periphery of a deep high pressure
system centered over the west Atlantic. Pressure gradients between
these two systems will remain tight enough for keeping breezy and
gusty winds across the area today.
Latest MFL sounding data depict dry air above 850 mb, along with
PWATs below 1 inch. Therefore, conditions should remain relatively
dry and warm today with maybe a few quick isolated showers, mainly
along the Atlantic coast. HRRR and LPMM composite continue to
suggest some potential for a few quick showers through the early
evening hours around the Lake Okeechobee region due to confluent
flow. Overnight lows will be in the middle 60s around the lake, to
lower 70s near the coasts.
Ensemble and global model scenarios show fair agreement in bringing
the aforementioned frontal boundary into northern Florida by Monday,
gradually approaching SoFlo during the evening hours. Winds will
veer to the south or even southwest ahead of the approaching front,
with moisture advection increasing across the area. Higher dew
points will translate in warmer conditions with afternoon highs
climbing into the low-mid 90s over interior areas, and mid-upper 80s
near the coasts. Most of the area should remain dry, although some
late day showers can`t be ruled out along the Gulf coast and areas
east of the lake.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
The aforementioned mid-level trough will work its way across the
Eastern Seaboard Monday night into Tuesday, dragging along with it a
cold front south across the Florida peninsula. The frontal passage
will be weakening and sluggish on its approach as the trough remains
well to our north; nevertheless, this setup could support the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across South
Florida on Tuesday.
Best timing for onset of convective activity seems to be mid-day
Tuesday, with activity continuing through the afternoon and tapering
off overnight. QPF totals area-wide aren`t impressive, with NBM mean
of 0.5 to 0.75 inches, however the 75th percentile is over 1 inch
for much of the area, so the potential is certainly there for
locally higher amounts.
While the front should be clear of south FL by late in the day
Tuesday, lingering moisture will hang around until early Wednesday
morning when the trough axis finally crosses the area and drier air
gets pulled into the area. Outside of some coastal showers, mainly
dry conditions will return for the remainder of the work week.
Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be right around
climatological norms with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low
temps will be in the 50s/60s. As the flow becomes more easterly late
in the week, temperatures will moderate back to above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
VFR expected to prevail during the next 24 hours at all terminals
with breezy SE winds decreasing to around 10kt this evening. Some
periods of bkn cigs may develop Monday afternoon, along with winds
becoming breezy/gusty, and shift to a more S/SW flow in the
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Breezy southeasterly winds continue but gradually decreasing to
below advisory levels this evening. Small craft should continue to
exercise caution over the Atlantic waters as winds continue to
subside through Sunday. Seas over the Atlantic waters will range
from 3 to 5 feet through the weekend, while the Gulf waters will be
in the 2 to 4 feet range.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
The high risk of rip currents is expected to expire this evening as
wind speeds along the Atlantic coastline gradually decreases as
winds shift southerly and southwesterly through Monday, with a
potential increase along the Gulf beaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 73 85 73 84 / 0 0 20 60
West Kendall 71 88 71 86 / 0 0 20 60
Opa-Locka 72 88 72 85 / 0 0 20 60
Homestead 73 86 72 86 / 0 0 20 50
Fort Lauderdale 73 85 73 82 / 0 0 20 70
N Ft Lauderdale 73 85 72 82 / 0 10 30 70
Pembroke Pines 73 90 73 85 / 0 0 20 60
West Palm Beach 71 87 71 80 / 10 10 30 70
Boca Raton 72 87 71 83 / 0 10 30 70
Naples 71 85 71 78 / 0 0 60 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
AMZ650-670.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Harrigan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
749 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Clipper like system tonight followed by lake effect snow will
produced widespread 2 to 6 inches of snow across Upper
Michigan this evening and tonight. Higher amounts, potentially
upwards of 8 inches will be possible in Luce County and the
higher terrain of Baraga and Marquette counties.
- High pressure dominates the forecast Tuesday into the weekend,
though 15-25% chances of precipitation linger for a system
passing south of the region late Wednesday/Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Dry conditions largely dominated the forecast area so far today,
with dewpoint depressions noted above 20 degrees in some locations.
Under mostly clear skies, ample sunshine warmed most of the region
into the upper 30s to low 40s in the morning. Since then, diurnally
driven clouds within broad cyclonic flow has supported afternoon
overcast skies and temperatures in the 40s. Light radar returns
present on KMQT likely isn`t resulting in anything reaching the
ground given the dry low levels.
Broad troughing emanating out of an upper level low over Hudson Bay
is noted on RAP analysis and GOES Water Vapor imagery. Within this
flow, a shortwave digging southeast through eastern
Manitoba/northwestern Ontario can be observed. This feature will be
the focus tonight as it continues pressing into the Upper Great
Lakes. A weak surface low is also noted near Duluth per RAP
analysis. The surface low will deepen in response to the coming
shortwave over northern Wisconsin, then shift into northern Lake
Michigan this evening and then into Lake Huron tonight. Along the
low`s western flank, robust 925-850mb fgen is expected, enabling
snow to develop across the west this evening, then shift east
overnight with the low. There`s fairly good agreement among the
various CAMs that QPF within this band could be 0.25-0.5 inches,
particularly across central and eastern Upper Michigan. Current
daytime temperatures in the 40s and road temperatures in the 50s
make this a challenging forecast and impacts will be at the mercy of
the rate of cooling and moistening that takes place this evening.
Timing of all these conditions being just after sunset though does
suggest quickly cooling and moistening conditions as the fgen band
develops. Additionally, the increasingly cold air aloft will support
increasing snow ratios as the snow transitions from synoptic to lake
enhanced and then lake effect along the low`s western flank tonight.
General consensus among the various model suites are for widespread
2 to 6 inches of snow, with higher amounts upwards of 8 inches being
possible in Luce County and the higher terrain of Baraga and
Marquette counties, thanks to upslope flow. Should the surface cool
and column moisten fast enough, enough forcing may support snowfall
rates up to 1 inch per hour in these locations this evening. The
deepening low and cold air advection will help support increasing
winds out of the north. 25-35 mph winds should be expected near the
immediate shores of Lake Superior and 20-25 mph elsewhere after
midnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
The work week starts off with ongoing LES over the N wind sn belts.
The primary shortwave forcing the heavier -shsn will have made it
over the UP into N WI, but an embedded wave trailing behind it
passes S over the UP mid day providing additional lift. 850mb temps
between -16C and -18C and inversion heights ~7kft will be supportive
for light to moderate shsn earlier in the day. What is a bit
uncertain yet is the duration and coverage of low level moisture
(mainly over the W), impacting how long numerous shsn hold on
through the day Mon. With best low level moisture and convergence
over the N central, the fcst reflects numerous showers there in the
morning with scattered elsewhere. Coverage overall decreases in the
afternoon as high pressure begins building in from the NW. With SLRs
in the upper teens:1, a fluffy 0.5-1" is expected with up to 2-3"
possible in the higher terrain of Marquette/Baraga Counties. Winter
Weather Advisories for much of the N tier counties continue through
10 AM EDT to reflect the higher snow accumulations impacting the Mon
morning commute. Marquette and Baraga Winter Weather Advisories end
at 2 PM EDT as upslope flow assists accumulating sn longer in the
day. As ground temps warm up above freezing with the higher sun
angle, sn accumulation on roads and sidewalks will likely end. Some
brisk north winds gusting to 20-30 mph are also expected during the
day, especially near Lake Superior where some gusts up to 35-40 mph
are possible (~50% chance). With the cold airmass overhead, temps
only warm up into the 20s to near freezing by Lake MI. This coupled
with the stronger winds, wind chills will hang in the single digits
to mid teens through the day, coldest N and E.
Despite high pressure moving in from the NW Mon night, isolated to
scattered -shsn continue overnight into Tue, best coverage over the
N central where there is longer fetch and better low level
convergence. NW winds weaken Mon night as the pressure gradient
decreases, but gusts up to 20 mph linger into Tue morning. Lows
settle into the teens with single digits possible interior W.
-shsn ends Tue morning as high pressure becomes centered overhead.
Additional accumulations up to 1-3" are expected Mon night into Tue,
highest N central. Highs peak in the mid 20s to upper 30s, warmest S
central. Clearer skies and light winds under the high pressure will
allow for an efficient radiational cooling Tue night, with lows in
the single digits near 10 to mid teens in the interior and upper
teens to mid 20s near the lakeshores by Wed morning.
Dry weather is favored to persist through the remainder of the work
week and into the weekend with high pressure dominating the region.
That said, mid level troughing emanating off the Rockies on Wed
sends two clipper systems toward the Great Lakes through Thu. The S
low tracks E from NE to the S end of the Great Lakes Basin while the
N low tracks SE over the Midwest. There remains spread in sfc low
track, but there is increasing confidence in not much precip within
the CWA Wed night into Thu. Both GEFS/EPS have no QPF in the 25th
percentiles, but the 50th EPS percentile has a few hundreths and the
75th of both ensembles reaches near 0.1"/24hr along the MI/WI state
line and S central. The fcst reflects slight chance PoPs up to 25%
Wed night, highest over S central. -Sn is favored given the precip
timing, but -ra can`t be ruled out. Once this trough over the
Pacific makes landfall on Mon, guidance should come to better
agreement on sfc low tracks and associated precip chances. Dry
weather then looks to persist into the weekend with the next precip
chances holding off until Sun/Mon as -ra. Spread in guidance is even
more significant at that point, but moisture advection ahead of any
potential system looks better than the mid week systems. Otherwise
temps trend well above normal into the weekend. Highs are expected
to reach into the 50s for many with lows starting to remain above
freezing. This will lead to more sn/ice melting and dangerous ice
conditions on interior lakes and rivers.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 749 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
A deepening area of low pressure will bring snow to all of the TAF
sites tonight as it pushes eastward over the UP. Snow has already
developed at CMX and will begin by 02Z at both SAW and IWD. IFR
conditions are expected tonight across all terminals, with temporary
reductions to LIFR at CMX and SAW as heavier showers move over.
Conditions are expected to improve Monday morning as lake effect
snow begins to diminish, with VFR conditions expected by late
afternoon at all terminals. Winds will also increase tonight as the
system strengthens. Expect north to northeast winds to peak 25-30
kts tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Light winds below 20 kts remain until this evening when a developing
low pressure system tightens the pressure gradient over the lake.
This in tandem with a cold airmass descending south over the lake
quickly increases winds out of the north-northeast to 20-30 kts
across the lake. Some gales are also likely (~75% chance), mainly
around 35 kts over the central portion of the lake tonight into
Monday as winds slowly back north. The stronger winds build wave
heights up to 6-10 ft for tonight into Monday. Higher waves continue
over the east into Monday night as northwest 20-30 kts winds
continue. Winds settle below 20 kts across the lake by mid morning
Tuesday. Expect light freezing spray tonight and moderate freezing
spray on Monday with some heavy freezing spray possible (~50%) near
Isle Royale and north of the international border.
Under primarily high pressure, winds will remain light and variable
the remainder of the work week and into the weekend.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Monday for
MIZ002-003-006-007-009-084-085.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for MIZ004-005.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 5 AM
EDT /4 AM CDT/ Monday for LSZ162.
Gale Warning from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 8 AM
EDT /7 AM CDT/ Monday for LSZ241>244-263-264.
Gale Warning from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Monday for LSZ245-265-266.
Gale Warning from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for LSZ267.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...Jablonski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
353 PM PDT Sun Apr 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will deliver warmer temperatures for Sunday in the
mid 60s to mid 70s. Rain will return to the region Sunday into
Monday morning. Monday afternoon and Tuesday will feature cooler
temperatures, breezy winds, and a chance for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday evening: The current ridge in place will keep
today dry and warm, creating a pleasant Sunday for much of the
forecast area. Temperatures today will be very mild and about 10
degrees higher than normal for this time of year. High temperatures
will be in the mid-high 60s, with even some 70s in places such as
Lewiston and Coulee Dam. Low temperatures will warm to the mid-high
40s. However, this warmup will only last today. By the end of the
day today, an amplified trough will begin nosing into the area,
dropping temperatures to near normal tomorrow and bringing
widespread chances for precipitation. Flow from this trough will be
from almost due south, bringing in warm and moist air from off the
Pacific coast. Current National Blend of Models (NBM) guidance
favors high probabilities of a tenth an inch or more (40 percent and
above) through Thursday morning for everywhere but the Okanogan
Valley, Waterville Plateau, Moses Lake, and the Columbia Basin, who
will see less than that. Probabilities for a quarter of an inch of
rain drop to less than 10-20 percent for most areas. Mountain passes
will see snow, anticipating up to a foot for the highest elevations
of the Cascades, 2-4 inches for the Central Panhandle Mountains, and
4-6 inches for the northern Idaho Panhandle and the Northeast
Mountains. Much of this precipitation will start tonight and
gradually move eastward over the area by tomorrow morning. Snow
levels for this system will range from 3,500 to 5,000 feet. Post
cold frontal winds will bring gusty winds to the Columbia Basin,
Spokane, and Pullman/Lewiston area Monday morning through afternoon,
with up to 35 mph gusts anticipated during this time.
Additionally, almost directly after the trough moves into the area,
a shortwave will move in behind it. This additional lift combined
with the warm and moist southerly flow will being a chance of
thunderstorms to much of the area but the Waterville Plateau and
Moses Lake area Monday afternoon and evening. Current models show
200-500 J/kg of CAPE throughout the forecast area, with some models
such as the NAM and HRRR favoring 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE.
Additionally, low level lapse rates of 8-9 degC/km further favor
thunderstorm chances. These thunderstorms, when paired with the
gusty winds mentioned above will result in moderately quick storm
motion that favors strong outflow winds should cells develop.
Wednesday through Sunday: A brief dry period will last from
Wednesday morning through Thursday morning as a ridge quickly moves
through. This will also make for a warmer than normal Wednesday
afternoon, with temperatures again getting back into the mid-high
60s. Beginning Thursday night, another trough will move into the
area, bringing temperatures back down and orographically enhanced
precipitation to mountain passes. The lowlands will not see much
precipitation with this second trough. This unsettled weather looks
to last through the extended period. /AS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through most of the TAF
period, through around 06Z for KEAT and around 10-14Z for the
rest of the TAF sites. High clouds are already moving in ahead of
the rainfall. Cloud deck is expected to lower to MVFR for KGEG-
KSFF-KCOE-KPUW-KLWS between 14-18Z during the heaviest rainfall,
then raise back up to VFR through the rest of the period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate
confidence for MVFR ceilings after 14z tonight. /AS
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 47 57 39 56 38 57 / 60 90 40 30 50 10
Coeur d`Alene 44 56 39 54 38 55 / 40 100 60 50 80 30
Pullman 46 55 38 53 38 54 / 40 90 60 40 60 20
Lewiston 50 62 43 61 42 63 / 30 90 70 30 60 10
Colville 44 56 37 56 36 57 / 70 100 60 50 70 20
Sandpoint 43 53 40 51 38 52 / 40 100 80 70 90 60
Kellogg 45 52 40 49 40 50 / 20 100 70 70 80 60
Moses Lake 49 64 40 61 38 63 / 70 50 10 10 10 0
Wenatchee 48 61 40 58 38 62 / 90 30 10 30 10 0
Omak 47 62 38 60 37 62 / 80 70 30 20 20 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
545 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain showers and high mountain snow showers return Monday and
Tuesday, with increasingly breezy to windy conditions Monday,
Tuesday, and Wednesday as well.
- Dry and warm ridge returns Wednesday into next weekend, with
70s returning to the forecast for some areas starting
Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Satellite imagery shows ridge over Intermountain West, with
ridge axis over West Idaho/East Oregon. Generally clear skies
prevail over East Idaho this afternoon. Trough off PacNW coast
shows well defined shortwave axis arriving along the coast.
Ridge axis shifts overhead tonight, then east during the day
Monday. Moisture begins spilling into the central mountains
after sunrise Monday, though the better chances for
precipitation arrive during the afternoon. Not confident about
the threat for thunderstorms in the afternoon. Believe that the
best instability remains west of the forecast area during prime
heating, so will leave mention out for now, but would also not
be surprised to see a lightning strike or two this time of year.
Breezy winds develop during the day through the Snake Plain and
higher elevations. Temps warm some 5 degrees above today`s
highs on southerly flow ahead of incoming trough. Showers spread
east through the afternoon and evening coincident with
shortwave trough axis, and recent HRRR runs indicate potential
gust potential 35-40 kts, which does lend SOME credence to
thunder potential later in the day. Flow flattens toward zonal
during the night, shifting any shower focus to higher elevations
generally favored in orographic westerly flow, mainly central
mountains and eastern highlands.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025
A tight pressure gradient looks to be in place across the area
on Tuesday with a trough to our north pushing slowly more
poleward. Wind Advisories look very likely across the Arco
Desert and potentially into the Snake Plain as all of eastern
Idaho looks to be on the breezier side. Precipitation will be
focused mainly across the higher terrain of the central
mountains and eastern highlands and this precip will push north
along with the trough into the evening hours and into the early
part of the day Wednesday. This should leave much of the area
dry as we get into Wednesday but the pressure gradient will
remain tight with breezy to windy conditions continuing as high
pressure builds over the area throughout the day. Temps Tue and
Wed will run around seasonal levels just a touch above seasonal
norms but these will become well above normal, by 10 to 15
degrees, as we get into Thursday and Friday with valley
temperatures likely to climb into the 70s for daytime highs
under mostly clear skies. The pattern changes once again as we
get into the weekend with models trending towards another trough
moving into the Pacific NW. There remains a bit of disagreement
as to timing, placement and depth of the aforementioned trough
which will ultimately have a huge impact on the forecast. For
now, ran with NBM given all the uncertainty but there is
certainly much that remains up in the air with the forecast as
we get into next weekend. Temps could be much colder based on
some model solutions but it`s just too early at this point. Stay
tuned.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM MDT Sun Apr 6 2025
VFR conditions prevail as high pressure remains in control with
clear skies and light winds. Clouds will begin to increase from
west to east tonight into Monday morning as a trough moves into
the region. Precipitation will likely reach the vicinity of
KSUN sometime in the late morning/early afternoon where VCSH and
SHRA has been introduced. Expect increasing winds, clouds and
precipitation chances throughout eastern Idaho late tomorrow
afternoon and evening. While the latest HREF probability of
thunder shows a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon
and evening, have kept the mention out of the TAFs at this time
and will evaluate on future TAF issuance for potential timing.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...MacKay
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
642 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Ongoing areal and river flooding will continue, with numerous
rivers still in flood stage and dozens of roads across
southern Missouri still reported to be closed by MODOT.
- An upper low will lift northeast into the area and bring a mix
of rain and snow through this afternoon. No impacts are
expected from these showers.
- Sub-freezing temperatures are expected the next couple of
nights. A Freeze Warning is in effect for the entire area from
11 PM tonight through 9 AM Monday morning, and an additional
Freeze Watch is in effect from 11 PM Monday night through 9
AM Tuesday morning.
- Warming back into the 70s by the middle to end of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Upper-air analysis shows split flow across the CONUS, with a
low over the Hudson Bay and a secondary, weaker low over central
Oklahoma, both embedded within a deep trough that extends from
the Hudson Bay to Baja California. The southernmost jet streak
extends from south-central Texas into the western Ohio River
Valley, and our position within the left exit region of this jet
streak is supporting some light showers, as seen on early
afternoon radar.
The showers that are moving across the region this afternoon are
more impressive on radar than in reality, with much of the
precipitation sublimating/evaporating before reaching the
ground. RTMA depicts surface dew point depressions generally in
the 7-20 range across our area, with the highest moisture
(lowest dew point depressions) furthest east. While surface
temperatures are in the low to mid-40s, which would suggest rain
showers, RAP mesoanalysis progs a wet bulb temperature around
40 degrees, which explains some late morning and early afternoon
snow and sleet reports. Wet-bulbing will be necessary for any
precip to reach the ground, but climbing temperatures support
any remaining showers to reach the ground as rain.
Tonight, the cloud deck associated with the afternoon showers
will filter out to the east, with clear skies and calm winds
settling in as a high pressure builds to our north. With
persistent cold air advection and clear skies, temperatures will
fall below freezing and as low as mid-20s tonight. These
temperatures will freeze any early crops or vegetation, thus a
Freeze Warning is in effect from 11 PM tonight until 9 AM Monday
morning. The lowest temperatures and most vulnerable areas will
be along the spine of the plateau.
Monday will be sunny and warmer, with high temperatures in the
upper 50s to low 60s as the high pressure builds further into
the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025
Monday night will again be cold and clear, with low
temperatures between the mid-20s and freezing. A Freeze Watch is
in effect from 11 PM Monday until 9 AM Tuesday, which will more
than likely be upgraded to a Freeze Warning on Monday. The
lowest temperatures and most vulnerable areas will again be
along the spine of the plateau, as well as into areas further to
the northeast.
A ridge will begin building back into the Plains on Tuesday,
with warm air advection increasing our temperatures through the
week. We return to the 70s on Wednesday, when a quick clipper
system will begin to slide across the Midwest and bring low
(15-35%) chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening
into Thursday. Best chances for rain look to be further north
and east spatially and during the day on Thursday temporally.
Severe storms are not anticipated with this activity.
The system will bring a cold front through the region, cooling
us back into the upper 60s on Thursday and Friday. However,
temperatures will start climbing again next weekend, and despite
a moderate spread between the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles,
confidence is high in above-normal temperatures next weekend.
Temperatures are expected to be near 80 degrees by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025
VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF
period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Monday for
KSZ073-097-101.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Monday for
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Titus