Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/04/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
817 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow on the decrease for the mountains and I-25 Corridor, but
rain/snow showers and even a couple storms still possible far
eastern Colorado.
- Areas and fog and a few slick spots (refreeze) possible into
Friday morning.
- More snow Friday into Saturday morning, with generally light
snow accumulations across the Foothills, Front Range mountains,
and Palmer Divide.
- Warmer and drier next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Another interesting evening with some convection and small hail
to deal with over the Palmer Divide, while briefly heavy snow
showers moved northeast through parts of metro Denver. The snow
showers are diminishing along the Front Range as the best upper
level support shifts eastward. Low clouds and light fog were left
behind, and that will hold overnight as the last of the snow
showers should be done by midnight.
Farther east, there was better upper level support in the left
exit region of an upper level jet. Also, a ribbon of instability
with MLCAPE near 250 J/kg still existed over Lincoln County, and
that`s been enough to fire off a couple storms. We`ll continue
that forecast with adjustments for more numerous showers and a
few storms over the far eastern plains through midnight, and then
ending.
Tomorrow`s weather maker will be the cold front that`s currently
pushing into northeast Wyoming. Given it`s current location, we
think the front will arrive by mid morning Friday with
north/northeast upslope winds increasing. That`ll get rid of any
fog, but light snow will develop in it`s wake. This surge will be
a colder airmass than today, thus we think most precipitation will
fall in the form of snow so we`ve nudged down snow levels a bit.
It`s still on track to focus most of the snow in/near the Front
Range Foothills as the bulk of the forcing occurs with the upslope
component, and only weak synoptic scale support from the deeper
trough reorganizing over far southern Arizona.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
A few bands of moderate snow have developed throughout the day
today with a current band over Morgan County. While there has
been a little slush that has accumulated, almost all of the snow
has melted on contact across the plains. Most of these showers are
moving northward with clearing on radar over Elbert, Lincoln, and
Washington Counties. Over the higher terrain, patchy sunshine has
allowed for steep lapse rates to form. This instability has
created scattered convective snow showers with brief periods of
moderate snow. The HRRR has continually shown convective snow
showers moving over the Denver metro this evening. Other models
have not been as aggressive with the convective snow showers over
the Denver metro and some solution in-between these will likely
end up being true. The western suburbs, like Golden and Boulder,
may pick up an inch of snow if these convective snow showers move
overhead but it seems unlikely that areas east of I-25 get
accumulating snow this evening.
After midnight, precipitation will mostly come to an end across
our forecast area. There may be some fog or mist that develops and
it could lead to a few slick spots during the morning commute
especially on bridges.
During the mid-morning on Friday, a cold front will move southward
out of Wyoming and will move through our plains and foothills.
There will be northeast winds with gusts between 25-30 mph. This
added upslope flow will create snow showers mainly over the
foothills. The foothills could see anywhere from 1-5" of snow
during the day tomorrow. The precipitation will be very terrain
dependent across the plains. The Palmer Divide will likely see
snow showers for much of the day with roads remaining most wet.
Areas on the southwest side of the Denver metro will likely see
consistent light snow while areas towards DIA may see breaks in
the precipitation with light drizzle and flurries. It will not be
the best day to be outside as wind chills with be in the upper 20s
in Denver along with the precipitation. Highs will stay in the
upper 30s to low 40s across the plains.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Snow showers will likely continue into the overnight hours Friday
night as the upper trough stalls out over southern New Mexico.
Moisture and upslope will gradually diminish through the night,
with the best chance of additional snow accumulation across the
foothills. Guidance varies quite a bit with the north/eastward
extent of the snow into the Denver metro/I-25 corridor, but any
snow accumulation would likely be limited to a half inch or so.
The weekend should be much quieter. A few snow showers will
probably linger across the terrain through at least the first half
of the day, with dry conditions elsewhere. Skies should quickly
clear during the afternoon, but temperatures will remain cool.
Highs on Saturday should climb back into the mid 40s.
A more impressive warming trend is expected to begin Sunday and
continue through most of next week, as a broad ridge axis builds
across the western CONUS. Sunday should see temperatures return
back to near normal values, with 60s and 70s likely for most of
next week. A weak shortwave still looks to track through sometime
Tuesday or Wednesday, with a few snow showers across the
mountains, with little else across the forecast area. Pretty good
ensemble agreement on well above normal temperatures as we get
closer to next weekend, with no real hints at precipitation across
the plains.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/...
Issued at 609 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Band of heavier snow showers is working across Denver metro to
start, but it gradually weakening or thinning. However, brief
reductions of visibility (down to 1/2-3/4SM) with accumulating
snow in the grass and a bit of slush on runways possible til
01-0130Z. There are still a couple heavier showers behind that,
but for the most part look for diminishing showers through 03-05Z,
before ending altogether. Ceilings will remain low (IFR)
overnight, and potential for fog is high enough with a very moist
boundary layer and light/vrb or light northerly winds for fog
reducing to 1/2-2SM as the most likely scenario.
That fog is expected to lift toward 15Z-16Z Friday as a cold
front approaches. That next front will usher in colder
temperatures aloft, upslope, and some more snow for the TAF sites.
We think the best opportunity of snow will start closer to 18Z,
but a chance it starts as early as 16Z. We think the more
widespread and persistent snow will focus closer to the foothills,
with KDEN on the edge of any accumulating snow into Friday
evening. IFR/MVFR conditions will persist through the period.
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...Hiris
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
833 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A few Light rain showers are possible this evening with the
passage of a weak cold front. More light rain likely overnight
near the south coast as this cold front stalls. Drying and
clearing trend for Friday with mild daytime temperatures.
Turning unsettled this weekend with rain chances both of the
days along with below normal temperatures on Saturday to
slightly above normal on Sunday. Though there is some
uncertainty with how warm it may become Sunday. Drying out
Monday, but cooler temperatures return for the week ahead with
unsettled conditions Tuesday and perhaps late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Last several runs of the HRRR have been bullish on the idea of
another round of showers as a weak cold front works its way east
across southern New England. Just started to see these showers
developing over eastern NY state. Expecting this trend to continue,
so used a time-lagged ensemble of the HRRR to tweak rainfall
chances overnight with this package. Also expecting another
round of showers toward the south coast. These showers were over
eastern PA.
Not much push to this front, so thinking it will take most of
the overnight hours to finally get offshore. Until this happens,
rather humid conditions with lower clouds and patchy drizzle
persist across southeast MA. Latest observations showed some
breaks in the low clouds north and west of I-95 in MA, RI and
CT. Expecting some lower clouds with the showers later tonight
just ahead of the cold front.
Brought temperatures back in line with observed trends.
Previous Discussion...
A weak cold front drops south through southern New England this
evening, bringing more scattered light showers and possibly a
rumble or two of thunder near the south coast, where residual
instability remains. The front wont make it much further than
the south coast before stalling as a weak low-pressure system
rides along it overnight. This will likely bring another round
of light rain to the areas, mainly along the south coast but as
far north as the MA Pike. Despite the cold fronts passage, we
wont see much clearing or cooling. Low to mid-level clouds will
stick around all night and help hold overnight lows in the upper
40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry northerly air pushes out any remaining showers by mid-Friday
morning, with clearing skies from north to south. With 850mb
temperatures still around +8C, high temperatures will be able to
jump back into the low to mid-60s, with low 70s possible in
eastern MA. Winds remain from the NW Friday at 10-20mph.
Rising heights Friday night will keep things dry, but expect
increasing mid- to upper-level cloud cover ahead of the next
shortwave. Calm winds overnight will help radiational cooling
bring lows into the upper 30s to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Less than ideal conditions this weekend with rain chances and
a cooler feel due to a backdoor cold front.
* Cooler and unsettled conditions persist into early next week.
Saturday through Sunday Night: Anticipate broad area of high
pressure to build across southwestern Quebec, anticyclonic flow
brings a backdoor cold front and ushers cooler marine air as
result of the northeast to east flow. 925mb temperatures
decrease Saturday to +/-1C, resulting in afternoon highs from
the middle to upper 40s. The surface high shifts to the east and
the warm front lifts north which shifts wind direction to
southwest, advecting warmer and more moisture into southern New
England by Sunday. A forecast challenge on Sunday, how far north
does the warm sector reach? The trailing cold front is not too
far removed. Deterministic guidance, have the warm sector mostly
suppressed to the south, with limited warmer air aloft moving
out before early afternoon, limiting heating potential for the
afternoon. Appears to be the theme amongst the deterministic
guidance, cooler than 00z run and moving the warm sector out
quicker too. Spread in temperatures are shown easily on DESI,
viewing the 10th and 90th percentile of the NBM, has a spread of
20 degrees for almost the entire region, the exception is Cape
Cod and the Islands where the spread is much less, less than 7
degrees. As result did deviate from the warmer NBM solution by
blending in the cooler CONSMOS guidance, resulting highs are
middle 50s to near 60F. As for precipitation this weekend, PWATs
range between 1.3" and 1.5" which is 2-3 standard deviations
above normal. Rain arrives late Saturday morning into early
afternoon, from west to east. Expect precipitation to persist
through Sunday as the associated low- pressure system traverses
the region Saturday night through Sunday evening. During this
time frame, cannot rule out rumbles of thunder, SREF has fairly
low probabilities of MUCAPE exceeding 250J/kg at 30% across
southwestern New England. As the cold front exits Sunday night
into early Monday morning, enough cold air advects in behind the
front and may change the rain to a sleet/snow mix in the higher
terrain of northern and western Massachusetts.
Monday though Thursday: Briefly drier conditions on Monday,
though the next system is not too far off as a low-pressure
system moves into northern New England from the Great Lakes
region for Tuesday. The exact positioning is uncertain as
guidance ranges from roughly Albany, NY to Montreal. The system
lacks moisture, PWATs fall from 0.4" to 0.2" during Tuesday
morning, but cold air aloft and marginal surface temperatures in
the higher elevations, AOA 1,000 FT, may lead to a snow/rain
mix, with spotty rain showers in the lower elevations. A quick
break on Wednesday is followed by another quick moving system
late next week. As for temperatures, trending slightly below
normal with highs in the 40s, but cooler across interior
southern New England in the mid 30s, this if for Monday thru
Wednesday, perhaps nearing the 50s Thursday. Lows in the 30s
Monday night, followed by lows in the 20s Tuesday night and
Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...Moderate Confidence.
IFR/LIFR in the early evening hours ahead of a cold front. This
cold front moves from north to south between 01-05z this
evening. There could be some light showers associated with the
cold front. CIGS will gradually rise back to MVFR/VFR levels
behind the cold front. Weak low pressure system traverses near
the south coast late overnight, which will bring light showers
and MVFR CIGS through about 06-12z. These showers should stay
mainly south of the MA pike.
Friday... High Confidence
VFR. West/northwest winds at 10 knots gusting 20 knots.
Friday Night... High Confidence
VFR. Light northerly winds under 10 knots.
BOS TAF...Moderate confidence.
Cold front could bring some light showers this evening between
02-04z with gradual improvement of CIGS to MVFR/VFR this
evening.
BDL TAF...Moderate confidence.
VFR CIGS this evening. A weak low will bring light rain
overnight with gradual clearing conditions by morning.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA,
chance FZRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA
likely.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Breezy. Chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Friday night...High confidence.
Gusty SW winds at 20-30 knots continue this evening before
diminishing as a cold front approaches and stalls near the
southern waters. Light rain showers are possible overnight as a
weak low pressure systems moves from west to east tonight. Winds
shift NW at 10-15 knots late overnight and remain there for
Friday.
Seas this evening remain elevated around 4-8 feet, diminishing
to 3-6 feet by Friday morning. Seas drop to 2-4 feet by Friday
afternoon.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers.
Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain
showers.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain
showers.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ231-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ232>234.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ236.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dooley/KP
NEAR TERM...Belk/KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...Belk/Dooley/KP
MARINE...Dooley/KP
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
629 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow expected this evening into Friday morning. The mountains
and foothills will see the greatest accumulations.
- Slight chance of thunder expected through early this evening
over far southeast MT into Sheridan WY.
- High confidence of building high pressure this weekend; expect
warmer and dry conditions into next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
A quick update to the going forecast for current observational
and model trends. Cold front is now located from south of Baker to
near Sheridan Wyoming, moving a bit faster than previous forecast
due to convective wind enhancement. Baker recorded a strong
thunderstorm wind gust to 48 mph last hour, and now the
temperature is down to 35 degrees. Will continue to see scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over far southeastern Montana
through about 9pm, with the storm threat ending as the front moves
through. Precipitation type should quickly changing over to snow
late evening.
Overall the going highlites look in good shape. Snowfall is a bit
early and locally heavy at times in the Billings area, but expect
snow intensity to decrease over the next hour or so, with
additional accumulation overnight expected to be an inch or less.
That said will continue to monitor the situation for any needed
expansion of the advisory area northward tonight. Chambers
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today through Friday night...
Line of showers and thunderstorms have developed in an inverted
trough over Rosebud County. Potential wind gusts with these storms
will be 20 to 30 mph based on radar velocity signatures. For the
18-21Z period, added thunder from the SW mountains ENE through
KBIL, KSHR and KMLS. Mesoanalysis showed 100-250 J/kg MLCAPE in
this region and lapse rates were quite steep over the area.
Effective Bulk Shear was only 20-25 kt. KBIL reported GS due to
the unstable airmass. Meanwhile cold front had moved S into the
area and at 19Z was from Roundup to K3HT. Behind the front, Judith
Gap reported 27 degs over 27 dewpoint and some moisture had
appeared on the web cam. Increased PoPs over much of the area
through 21Z and had likely PoPs for snow over Judith Gap. Front
has ushered in gusty N winds. Chances for thunder will remain from
around KBIL S and SE for the rest of the afternoon. PoPs will
increase to likely over much of the area as the front progresses S
and 700 mb frontogenesis increases behind it. Precipitation will
be in the form of rain with rain and snow or all snow N and NW of
KBIL.
Front should be through the entire forecast area by 06Z tonight,
accompanied by high PoPs along the frontogenesis band and over
areas favored by N to NE upslope flow. Precipitation will
gradually change to snow from NW to SE with mostly all snow
expected between 06-09Z. Kept a low chance of thunder S and SE of
KBIL through 03Z based on RAP forecast of low MLCAPE. Steep lapse
rates and upslope flow, combined with the frontogenesis will
allow for heavier snow showers over the upslope areas through the
evening. Gusty winds behind the front will continue into the
evening. The strong frontogenesis will be SE of the area by early
Friday morning and chance PoPs will linger over the far SE, S.
Big Horn County, NE upslope areas and Sheridan County. PoPs taper
off to the S in the afternoon. Snow totals will be an inch or less
from KBIL N and E. Expect 1-3 inches in the ongoing Advisory
areas with around 10 inches in Red Lodge and up to 18 inches in
the upslope areas of the Beartooths/Absarokas where a Warning is
in effect. 8 to 11 inches is expected over the NE Bighorns which
are under an Advisory. Will go ahead and expand the Advisory
through S. Rosebud, Powder River and Carter Counties due to a
possible band setting up in this area for 1-3 inches of snow.
Friday will be a cool day with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Friday night will be dry with lows in the teens to mid 20s. Arthur
Saturday through Thursday...
Through the weekend, NW flow will transition into ridging through
Monday. This will allow for dry conditions with above average
temperatures into the 50s and 60s during this timeframe. Early
Tuesday into Wednesday, a weak Pacific shortwave will move
through, bringing an increased chance (20-50%) for rain showers
for lower elevations. Areas 6000ft and above will likely see snow
showers (40-70% chance). The lower elevations have about a 30-50%
chance of getting a tenth of an inch of water Tuesday through
Wednesday, with the mountains at a 60-80% chance. Westerly flow
transitions back to ridging for the latter part of the week.
Tuesday through Thursday`s high temperatures remain mild with
temps in the 50s and 60s, gradually warming through the week. TS
&&
.AVIATION...
Precipitation associated with a frontal passage is expected to
move across the region through the afternoon. A few isolated
thunderstorms can be expected during this time. A rain/snow mix
can be expected for lower elevations late afternoon, quickly
transitioning to snow this evening. All sites will be subject to
IFR/LIFR conditions this evening with the transition to snow.
Expect snow showers to taper off from 12-15Z Friday. Mountain
obscurations can also be expected. TS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027/042 025/055 033/065 036/069 042/063 040/063 038/068
71/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 24/R 32/R 00/U
LVM 023/041 022/053 031/060 035/063 038/058 037/056 036/065
81/B 00/U 00/U 01/B 35/R 32/R 01/B
HDN 026/042 022/055 031/064 033/070 040/064 039/063 036/067
81/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 24/R 42/R 10/U
MLS 025/042 024/054 031/061 031/064 038/063 040/061 039/064
50/B 00/U 00/B 00/U 12/R 22/R 10/U
4BQ 026/039 021/050 031/059 031/064 037/062 040/061 039/063
61/B 00/U 00/B 00/U 13/R 22/R 10/U
BHK 022/039 020/050 028/058 026/055 031/060 034/059 035/061
81/B 00/U 00/B 00/U 12/R 22/R 10/U
SHR 022/037 016/050 026/058 029/066 034/060 034/059 033/064
93/S 10/U 00/U 00/U 15/R 32/R 10/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 AM MDT Friday FOR
ZONES 34-36-37-58-64-65-138-139-141-169>171.
Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 AM MDT Friday FOR
ZONES 56-66-67.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 AM MDT Friday FOR
ZONES 198-199.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
405 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unsettled weather pattern through Saturday with high chances
for precipitation (rain and snow) and below normal
temperatures. Some thunderstorms may be possible today (severe
storms not anticipated).
- Accumulating snow is forecast through Friday morning roughly
along and north of a Parks, Nebraska to Kit Carson, Colorado
line with light accumulations currently forecast. 20% chance
for locally higher amounts of 2-3 inches around the Tri-State
border area due to localized banding.
- About a 35-40% chance blowing snow will impact travel late
Friday afternoon into the evening along a cold frontal passage.
- Dry, warming trend expected to start Sunday and last into at
least the middle of the next workweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
An upper level low is developing across the Inter-Mountain west and
will be the main synoptic feature the short term period. This
morning a 700mb jet streak putting the CWA into the left exit region
of this jet will slowly increase increase precipitation chances
this morning and throughout the day today. Precipitation may
start off as snow or a rain/snow mix as temperatures are
forecast to remain around the freezing mark before slowly
warming across Greeley, Wichita and Cheyenne (CO). Precipitation
will then begin to overspread the rest of the area through the
day as chance for precipitation look to have increased to
around 70% area wide. CAPE is forecast to increase as well with
the jet with around 500 j/kg of SB and MUCAPE and wind shear of
50-60 knots would not be surprised if some stronger cells are
able to develop. The other part to keep an eye on will be a
surface convergence boundary that looks to be draped across
Cheyenne county Colorado back across Wallace and Greeley
counties that may be able lead to some landspout formation.
Lapse rates are decent around 7-8C and with the amount of wind
shear present hodographs are curved along with very low LCL`s
present as moisture will be increasing as well. If a storm is
able to get its act all the way together some hail up to nickel
size would be possible. At this time, think the landspout
potential is around 5% and the hail potential around 3% of
occurring.
In typical High Plains fashion, we will also have to keeping an eye
on snowfall on the cooler side of this system thanks to thicker
cloud cover across the higher elevations of the Colorado counties.
Some guidance and even some wet bulb zero guidance shows being
the dominant precipitation type for the majority of today and
overnight, if this is the case then will need to keep an eye on
higher snowfall amounts. Some ensemble members do show bands of
higher amounts around 3 inches or so roughly from Highway 27 on
west so this potential may end up as more of a mesoanalysis
threat to see where these heavier bands of snow do set up at.
Overall highs for today have trended down into the upper 30s
across the west to the low 50s across the east. Continued cloud
cover tonight does look to keep low temperatures from
completely bottoming out as low temperatures are forecast to
remain in the upper 20s to the upper 30s across the area. I did
add in some patchy fog across the area as well as I do think
this is a possibility in between precipitation overnight as it
becomes less widespread. Thinking for this is due to the low dew
point depressions, a freshly saturated boundary layer and a
climatologically favored ESE wind for fog formation.
Friday, the better lift shifts slightly to the east as seen on
isentropics and with the overall synoptic pattern as the bulk of the
precipitation as rain favors locales along and south of a
Norton to Cheyenne Wells line. High temperatures at this time
are currently forecast to be similar to today but I do have
concerns that its still to warm especially if the stratus can
hang on through the day longer; so this may be a potential
target of opportunity to keep an eye on in future forecasts.
During the afternoon a cold front is forecast to move through
the area which is forecast to bring additional precipitation
through the area with it. The question will be how much will
accompany it as drier mid level air is forecast to be not
trailing to far behind the front. With this said, there may be
some Snow Squall potential with this as there is a large area of
SB CAPE co located with the front along with 0-3km lapse rates
around 7-7.5C/km. The other thing that is catching my eye is the
increasing amount of cold air over 3 hours around the 800mb
layer where it starts around freezing and then falls to -4C 3
hours later. Winds at this time are forecast to become breezy as
well behind the front gusting 30-35 knots potentially as high
as 40 knots if the RAP 850mb wind field is correct as those
winds would be able to be mixed down as there does appear to be
1-3mb pressure rises over 1 hour and 3-5 mb pressure rises over
3 hours according to both the NAM and the RAP. At this time
confidence in a snow squall would be around 10- 15%.
Temperatures Friday night will be the main story as they are
forecast to fall into the teens to the mid 20s across the area.
After the warm temperatures that was realized last week some spring
fever may have hit so be sure to cover any sensitive vegetation
along with making sure that new born livestock are properly
protected as wind chills are forecast to fall into the single
digits with the winds and the cold temperatures combine.
Dry weather is forecast on Saturday with a surface high directly
across the area. High temperatures are again forecast to be in
the 40s for highs along with breezy northerly winds around
20-25 mph sustained gusting up to 35 mph leading to a brisk day.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
From the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF, much of the extended period
will remain dry with a meandering 500/700mb ridge over the western
portion of the country on into the Rockies being the main wx feature
in the Plains region. The system for Saturday morning has continued
to trend further south than previous runs. The earlier forecast had
the northern edge of the low to the south grazing our south zones
with a 15-20% chance of light snow I-70 and south.
Currently, surface ridge building south is a bit more aggressive,
but still a low chance 15-20% for some light snow showers
along/south of Highway 40 w/ E/NE flow working into the northern
periphery of the low to the south, there remains some low level
moisture present to trigger a few snow showers w/ no accum expected.
Tuesday evening, there is a shortwave that grazes the northern
periphery zones, triggering a 15-20% chance for a shower mainly Hwy
34 and north.
The passage of the Tuesday evening system will open the region up to
NW flow with the potential for gusts in the 20-30 mph, especially in
Colorado. Dry conditions for Wed-Thu will bring about some localized
near critical fire wx conditions as RH levels to drop into the upper
teens/lower 20s.
For temps, a warming trend is expected for both highs and lows, but
more noticeable for the range of daytime highs. This weekend, highs
in the 40s on Saturday will give way to upper 50s through the lower
60s for Sunday. 60s on Monday will give way to 70s each day from
Tuesday onward. Overnight lows Saturday night will range in the 20s,
upper 20s to lower 30s Sunday night, then mainly 30s thereafter.
Thursday night will have upper 30s to the lower 40s for a range.
Wind chill readings Saturday night into Sunday morning will be in
the lower to mid teens.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 405 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
KGLD...sub VFR conditions are expected through the taf period
due to stratus and fog/mist at times. East winds gusting to
around 25kts are anticipated at taf issuance with speeds around
13kts from the east-southeast through 13z. There will be
rainfall chances from taf issuance through about 03z with lesser
chances through 13z. After 14z, winds will shift to the north,
gusting up to 25kts with fog/mist continuing at times and a much
lesser chance for precipitation.
KMCK...sub VFR conditions are expected through the taf period
due to stratus and fog/mist at times. East winds gusting up to
20kts or so will continue through about 06z with rain showers
and mist. Southeast winds around 11kts are forecast from 07z-17z
with sub VFR cigs and potentially some fog/mist and some light
showers. After 18z, winds shift to the north, gusting up to
25kts with continued sub VFR cigs and potentially some light
showers.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
706 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Overall we`re still in a similar pattern to the previous day, with a
broader trough over the Desert Southwest tightening the pressure
gradient to keep a 40-60 kt LLJ overhead. Gusty winds continue this
afternoon, reaching 25 to 35 mph in spots. A Wind Advisory will be
in effect until 5 PM today for most areas along and south of the US-
59 corridor.
The parameter space for the severe weather threat today looks
similar to that of yesterday. The HREF still shows 30-60 knots of
bulk shear in place with SFC CAPE ranging from 2000-3700 J/KG in the
afternoon. SFC CIN is progged to reach -5 J/KG across the Brazos
Valley to -50 J/KG closer to the coast. Forecast soundings still
show drier midlevels with lapse rates from 7.0-8.25 degC/km. DCAPE
is over 1000 J/KG with TEI values of 25-32. Forcing is lacking
still, but with the stalled frontal boundary sagging south,
compressional heating ahead of it could enhance convection. We
already have a few showers developing over this area already as
conditions near convective temps. SPC mesoanalysis shows microburst
composite parameter values near 6-8 around this area of showers.
SPC has a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of severe storms bordering our
northern counties this afternoon though this evening. While we`re
likely to see no more than a few showers this afternoon, it is
entirely feasible that some pulse-y storms could pop up this
afternoon. All severe hazards are on the table still, though
damaging winds and large hail will be the main concern to watch for
if any thunderstorms pull together.
On Friday the upper level trough trudges eastward. The presence of
the LLJ overhead will still bring winds gusts of 25 to 35 mph,
necessitating another Wind Advisory. The stalled frontal boundary is
expected to push southward towards the fringes of SE Texas Friday
evening, continuing southward into Saturday. Ahead of this line, the
last two HRRR runs have 25 m2s2 updraft helicity paint balls in
place over our northeastern counties near Crockett/Livingston.
Better clustering exists further northwest, though it`ll be an area
to watch Friday afternoon as we reach peak heating, especially with
a similar environment still in place. We`ll lose some instability
during the evening, potentially seeing lull in activity before
the cold front slowly makes is way into the area, mainly overnight
into early Saturday. SPC now has portions of the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods under a Slight (level 2/5) Risk of severe
weather on Friday. All severe hazards are on the table once again,
though rising SRH increases the risk of more organized storms and
or isolated tornadoes. This severe weather risk continues into
Saturday as the front continues through the area.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Main story this long term is the severe weather threat for Saturday.
A large upper level low swinging in from the Desert Southwest will
finally bring that stalled boundary that has been hanging around to
our northwest through the region on Saturday. FROPA is still looking
to occur during the morning hours (8-10am) through the Brazos
Valley, early to mid afternoon along the I-45 Corridor, and then off
to the east by the late afternoon or evening. After days of deep
southerly flow across SE Texas, PWATs will be surging to 1.6-1.9"
ahead of the front. Combine that with instability (LREF mean CAPE is
around 1500-2000+ J/kg ahead of the front) and high shear is a
recipe for strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms that develop ahead
of and along the cold front will be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts, hail, and tornadoes. So, Saturday is a day stay weather-
aware and to make sure you have ways to get warnings, if they are
issued. SPC has placed most of SE Texas in a Slight Risk (level 2 of
5) for Severe Weather with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) to the
northeast across the TX/LA border. WPC also has a Marginal to Slight
Risk (level 1-2 of 4) across the area for Excessive Rainfall as the
isolated strong to severe storms may drop upwards of 1-2"+ of
rain which could lead to some minor flooding if they happen over
areas of poor drainage.
Once the front is through Saturday evening, the threat for severe
weather ends. And with high pressure building in behind the front we
will likely not see any additional precipitation through most of
next week.
The high temperature on Saturday will be highly dependent on the
quickness of the front. With current model guidance on FROPA timing,
have high temperatures in the low 80s along and south of I-10 and
mid to upper 70s to the north. However a slower FROPA, expect more
of the area getting into the 80s, but a quicker FROPA keeping most
of the region in the 70s. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in
the mid to upper 40s north and west of the Houston Metro and low to
mid 50s to the south and east. There will be a slow climb in
temperatures through the rest of the long term with highs on Sunday
in the upper 50s to mid 60s, then mid 60s to low 70s on Monday, mid
to upper 70s on Tuesday, and finally back to the low 80s by
Wednesday. Low temperatures will see a similar trend: generally low
to mid 40s on Sunday night and Monday night, low to mid 50s Tuesday
night, and mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
A mix of MVFR to VFR cigs currently observed over SE TX along with
some light drizzle and SSE winds around 10-15 KTS with gusts up
to 25 KTS. Winds will slightly relax to around 08-12 KTS tonight
with gusts of around 20 KTS on occasion. Also, cigs are expected
to lower to MVFR for all sites, and some locations may lower to
IFR overnight into early Fri.
Winds will strengthen again on Fri as another 45-55 KT llvl jet
develops overhead and the surface pressure gradient remains tight
in response to a cold front stalled over Central TX. Expect winds
to be around 15-20 KTS with gusts of around 25-30 KTS. Coastal
areas may have some reduced vis due to patchy fog during the TAF
period. Cigs are expected to lift throughout the day and may
scatter out for a few hours. Moreover, there`s a chance for SH/TS
on Fri and Fri night, in particular for sites north of I-10,
ahead of the next FROPA. Cigs are expected to lower again by Fri
night.
24
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Moderate to strong onshore winds will continue through Saturday with
speeds of 15-25kt and occasional gusts to 35kt. Those occasional
higher wind gusts will become more frequents Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning as a cold front approaches the region from
the west. This persistent strong onshore winds are also causing
increased seas to 6-10ft (and occasionally higher wave heights to
12ft). Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Saturday
morning, but will likely need to extended into Sunday as moderate to
strong offshore winds develop behind the cold front and with
lingering high wave heights. There is also a Beach Hazards Statement
out through Saturday morning as the onshore winds lead to an
elevated risk of strong rip currents and abnormally high tides to
around 3.5ft above MLLW.
Mariners should remain weather-aware on Saturday as a cold front
moves through the area bringing with it a chance of strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and
tornadoes/waterspouts. The timing of this front in the coastal
waters will likely be during the afternoon and evening hours on
Saturday. High pressure builds in over the area Sunday with light
winds and low seas prevailing through next week.
Fowler
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
On Wednesday, April 2, four out of five climate sites (all except
Galveston) broke their records for daily high minimum temperature.
There is potential today for the double...both record high maximum
and record high minimum temperatures are in jeopardy for a few
locations. Here are today`s daily records:
Record High Maximum Temperatures:
- College Station: 90F (1939)
- Houston/Bush: 87F (2023)
- Houston/Hobby: 88F (2023)
- Palacios: 87F (1974)
- Galveston: 84F (1998)
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
- College Station: 72F (2014)
- Houston/Bush: 74F (2023)
- Houston/Hobby: 74F (2023)
- Palacios: 75F (2023)
- Galveston: 74F (2023)
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 89 65 76 / 20 50 80 90
Houston (IAH) 76 89 74 83 / 20 20 50 90
Galveston (GLS) 76 84 74 80 / 10 10 30 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ200-213-214-
226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
Beach Hazards Statement through late Friday night for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...Fowler
CLIMATE...Batiste
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
947 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Flood Watch through Sunday morning with rounds of moderate to
heavy rain and total rainfall potentially as high as 6 to 8 inches
- Some strong to severe storms possible again later Friday into
Friday night
- Widespread, significant river flooding expected late week into
next week
.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Friday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Yesterday`s cold front is now south of Indiana, stretching roughly
from northeast Texas through Arkansas and Tennessee, and then
northeast into Kentucky. With our location north of the front, we`ve
experienced cooler and quieter weather. That will change as a mid-
level wave rides northeast along the boundary overnight.
Rain is beginning to enter Indiana as of 18z. Higher-resolution
guidance shows showers expanding in coverage through the overnight.
For the most part, rain will be light to moderate and stratiform in
nature. This is because large-scale forcing from the mid-level wave
along with isentropic upglide are our primary sources of lift.
However, some elevated buoyancy may creep northward through the
night allowing for some embedded convection.
Higher-resolution guidance is beginning to catch onto the idea of a
training band of elevated storms, leading to a band of heavier
rainfall totals. As of right now, the greatest likelihood of this
would be from Indianapolis southward to the Ohio River. Guidance
varies on amounts but 1 to 2 inches is entirely possible where this
band sets up.
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
Flash flooding potential seems low overnight, mainly due to the
limited coverage of deep convection. However, as mentioned above, if
a band of embedded convection develops and persists over an
area...it wouldn`t take much to lead to localized flash flooding.
Mesoscale and radar trends will need to be monitored closely
overnight.
See the Long Range Discussion below for flood potential Friday night
onward.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
The KIND radar loop continues to show areas of moderate returns and
embedded 45+ DBZ echoes to become more common as a 50 knot low level
jet was focusing anomalously high PWAT to 1-1.3 inches near and
south of I-70. 700 millibar frontogenesis and 300K Isentropic lift
overtop a wavy southeastern Kentucky front combined with the deep
moisture and weak instability aloft suggest more widespread rain and
embedded thunderstorms will continue into the overnight before
ending from northwest to southeast toward daybreak as the front
moves slightly further away. 6 hour MRMS radar estimated QPF was
indicating a band of half an inch to an inch has fallen just south,
across the LMK forecast area but this could sneak in the next few
hours per HRRR reflectivity progs and the the WPC Mesoscale
Precipitation Discussion. This could result in some flooding,
although currently MRMS crest unit streamflow does not support any
flood products other than the current warning along area streams.
Better chances for areal flooding and flash flooding lie ahead this
weekend.
The thick cloud cover and light winds will not allow temperatures to
dip any lower than the middle 40s north to lower 50s south.
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
The KIND radar loop is showing pockets of moderate returns with a
few embedded 45+ DBZ echoes as the surface boundary was well to the
south. That said, 300K Istentropic lift and 700 millibar
frontogenesis were resulting in scattered to numerous pockets of
moderate rain, embedded pockets of 45+ DBZ a few lightning strikes,
over south central Indiana. This activity is expected to continue
through the evening before increasing in coverage late tonight in
response to an impulse spinning up a wave, along the front, over
southeastern Kentucky. MRMS 6 hour radar estimated precipitation is
only showing a few strips of 0.25 inch and greater rainfall, along
the I-70 corridor and further south, across south central Indiana.
So, the immenent threat of new areal flooding is not high at the
moment.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Friday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Yesterday`s cold front is now south of Indiana, stretching roughly
from northeast Texas through Arkansas and Tennessee, and then
northeast into Kentucky. With our location north of the front, we`ve
experienced cooler and quieter weather. That will change as a mid-
level wave rides northeast along the boundary overnight.
Rain is beginning to enter Indiana as of 18z. Higher-resolution
guidance shows showers expanding in coverage through the overnight.
For the most part, rain will be light to moderate and stratiform in
nature. This is because large-scale forcing from the mid-level wave
along with isentropic upglide are our primary sources of lift.
However, some elevated buoyancy may creep northward through the
night allowing for some embedded convection.
Higher-resolution guidance is beginning to catch onto the idea of a
training band of elevated storms, leading to a band of heavier
rainfall totals. As of right now, the greatest likelihood of this
would be from Indianapolis southward to the Ohio River. Guidance
varies on amounts but 1 to 2 inches is entirely possible where this
band sets up.
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
Flash flooding potential seems low overnight, mainly due to the
limited coverage of deep convection. However, as mentioned above, if
a band of embedded convection develops and persists over an
area...it wouldn`t take much to lead to localized flash flooding.
Mesoscale and radar trends will need to be monitored closely
overnight.
See the Long Range Discussion below for flood potential Friday night
onward.
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
The KIND radar loop is showing pockets of moderate returns with a
few embedded 45+ DBZ echoes as the surface boundary was well to the
south. That said, 300K Istentropic lift and 700 millibar
frontogenesis were resulting in scattered to numerous pockets of
moderate rain, embedded pockets of 45+ DBZ a few lightning strikes,
over south central Indiana. This activity is expected to continue
through the evening before increasing in coverage late tonight in
response to an impulse spinning up a wave, along the front, over
southeastern Kentucky. MRMS 6 hour radar estimated precipitation is
only showing a few strips of 0.25 inch and greater rainfall, along
the I-70 corridor and further south, across south central Indiana.
So, the immenent threat of new areal flooding is not high at the
moment.
.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Friday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Yesterday`s cold front is now south of Indiana, stretching roughly
from northeast Texas through Arkansas and Tennessee, and then
northeast into Kentucky. With our location north of the front, we`ve
experienced cooler and quieter weather. That will change as a mid-
level wave rides northeast along the boundary overnight.
Rain is beginning to enter Indiana as of 18z. Higher-resolution
guidance shows showers expanding in coverage through the overnight.
For the most part, rain will be light to moderate and stratiform in
nature. This is because large-scale forcing from the mid-level wave
along with isentropic upglide are our primary sources of lift.
However, some elevated buoyancy may creep northward through the
night allowing for some embedded convection.
Higher-resolution guidance is beginning to catch onto the idea of a
training band of elevated storms, leading to a band of heavier
rainfall totals. As of right now, the greatest likelihood of this
would be from Indianapolis southward to the Ohio River. Guidance
varies on amounts but 1 to 2 inches is entirely possible where this
band sets up.
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
Flash flooding potential seems low overnight, mainly due to the
limited coverage of deep convection. However, as mentioned above, if
a band of embedded convection develops and persists over an
area...it wouldn`t take much to lead to localized flash flooding.
Mesoscale and radar trends will need to be monitored closely
overnight.
See the Long Range Discussion below for flood potential Friday night
onward.
.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Friday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Yesterday`s cold front is now south of Indiana, stretching roughly
from northeast Texas through Arkansas and Tennessee, and then
northeast into Kentucky. With our location north of the front, we`ve
experienced cooler and quieter weather. That will change as a mid-
level wave rides northeast along the boundary overnight.
Rain is beginning to enter Indiana as of 18z. Higher-resolution
guidance shows showers expanding in coverage through the overnight.
For the most part, rain will be light to moderate and stratiform in
nature. This is because large-scale forcing from the mid-level wave
along with isentropic upglide are our primary sources of lift.
However, some elevated buoyancy may creep northward through the
night allowing for some embedded convection.
Higher-resolution guidance is beginning to catch onto the idea of a
training band of elevated storms, leading to a band of heavier
rainfall totals. As of right now, the greatest likelihood of this
would be from Indianapolis southward to the Ohio River. Guidance
varies on amounts but 1 to 2 inches is entirely possible where this
band sets up.
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
Flash flooding potential seems low overnight, mainly due to the
limited coverage of deep convection. However, as mentioned above, if
a band of embedded convection develops and persists over an
area...it wouldn`t take much to lead to localized flash flooding.
Mesoscale and radar trends will need to be monitored closely
overnight.
See the Long Range Discussion below for flood potential Friday night
onward.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE...
High confidence concerns for significant flooding across the Ohio
Valley as additional rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall will
impact the region Friday night through early Sunday. A highly
amplified and blocky upper level pattern across the country anchored
by a deep trough over the Intermountain West and a strong ridge off
the southeast US coast will place the Ohio Valley within deep
southwest flow that will maintain a rich fetch of moisture from both
the equatorial Pacific and the Gulf. Additionally the sharp
baroclinic zone that will align north of the stagnant frontal
boundary across the region will further promote strong lift and
convergence with a strong upper jet supporting divergence aloft. As
has been mentioned...this setup is historically supportive of a
prolonged risk for heavy rainfall and flooding for the Ohio Valley
and central Indiana.
Friday Night through Sunday
Rainfall coverage will expand back north across the forecast area
late afternoon Friday as the front moves into central Indiana as
surface waves ride along the boundary. Precip efficiency levels will
be excellent as deep convergence up through 700mb aligns with the
axis of highest precip water values above the climatological max and
near 300% of normal for early April. This continues to favor another
round of widespread heavy rainfall over the entire forecast area
from late day Friday through Saturday morning. Additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches look likely which will only exacerbate
ongoing flooding.
Rainfall coverage and rates may diminish briefly again Saturday
morning before the arrival of a stronger surface wave into the
region by late Saturday triggers the final wave of rainfall into the
Ohio Valley for Saturday afternoon and night with the frontal
boundary shifting back to the southeast of the region as the night
progresses. Despite slightly lower PWAT values...low level profiles
remain ideal for heavy...efficient rainfall to impact the forecast
area for several hours before transitioning to lighter and more
scattered rain late Saturday night as the trailing upper level
trough moves in from the west. Flooding concerns will be maximized
through early Sunday.
Temperatures may struggle to climb out of the 40s on Sunday with a
stiff northerly wind and periodic light showers and maybe a
few snowflakes making for a miserable end to the weekend.
An additional 3 to 5 inches of rain are likely across the forecast
area from late Friday through Sunday with highest amounts south.
This would be in addition to the 1 to 3 inches that fell Wednesday
night and the rain expected later today and tonight. These rainfall
amounts will produce significant flooding...especially along
rivers...creeks and streams and within poor drainage areas. High
confidence exists that the heavy rainfall anticipated through Sunday
could be one of the highest impact flooding events for central
Indiana over the last 15 years. A reminder that the Flood Watch
continues through 12Z Sunday.
Monday through Wednesday
After the wet and mild regime...a deep upper level trough will
overspread the eastern half of the country next week with high
confidence in cooler than normal conditions developing. Highs
through the first half of next week will only range from the mid 40s
to mid 50s with those temperatures subtly modifying later next
week. There is also likely to be multiple nights with subfreezing
lows with potential for frost. There will be a few opportunities
for mainly light precipitation as well as multiple weak waves
aloft swing through the region. Cannot rule out a few snowflakes
mixing in with rain at times.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 658 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Impacts:
- Rain and a few thunderstorms will continue across the terminals
- MVFR and worse conditions will become possible but not likely
until after 03z at the earliest at KBMG and later elsewhere
Discussion:
Occasional rain and a few thunderstorms will dominate the TAF
period. Brief MVFR and worse conditions are possible with any
precipitation but more likely late tonight and Friday.
Winds will switch to northeast and east at mostly less than 10
knots.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...MK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
650 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread rainfall expected across western and north central
Nebraska tonight into Friday. The heaviest rainfall will be
focused across southwest Nebraska into the central Sandhills.
- Potential for a slushy coating of snow across the western and
northwest Sandhills tonight into Friday morning.
- A warming trend brings temperatures above normal Tuesday
through Thursday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
A closed upper low was currently centered over eastern Utah. An
H7 trough axis extended east across west central CO into west
central KS. Rain showers are already underway across western KS
into eastern CO. Across western Nebraska, Imperial was 47
degrees and reporting light rain. North Platte was 54, while
north central Nebraska had temperatures ranging from 45 to 49.
Winds were easterly at 5 to 15 mph with gust to 20 mph across
the southwest. Light snow reported at Sidney, south into
portions of northeast Colorado including Denver, Fort Morgan and
Akron.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Tonight, an large upper trough will extend over the Rockies
into the Desert Southwest with a closed low developing over
Arizona. A lead disturbance with an H7 trough extending eastward
in southwest flow aloft over eastern CO and western KS will
lift into southwestern areas this evening and bring widespread
rain showers with near 90 POPs. An H3 jet max 100-120KT
extending from southeast New Mexico across eastern Nebraska will
also aid in upper level divergence across western Nebraska.
MUCAPEs do increase to 50-100 J/G into far southwest Nebraska
this evening, so a few thunderstorms are possible.
Models are forecasting PWATS from a half to two-thirds of an inch
overnight for areas east of Highway 61. Ensemble mean QPFs from
the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all indicate a half inch to over
three quarters of an inch across all of southwest Nebraska north
into central portions of north central Nebraska. Deterministic
models show even higher amounts, including the 12Z and 18Z HRRR
and 18Z RAP. Due to good model agreement, NBM POPs are likely
to categorical (60 to 90 percent) Tonight. The ECMWF EFI SOT
also shows a signal for QPFs centered over southwest Nebraska.
Friday, an H7 trough axis oriented southwest to northeast will
slowly move eastward during the day. Although lift appears
weak, the atmosphere will be nearly saturated. Light rain
showers still likely, mainly Highway 83 east. Highs will be
quite cool from 35 to 40 northwest Sandhills, to the low 40s to
around 45 to the east. Northerly winds increasing to 20 to 30
mph west of Highway 83, and 15 to 25 mph later in the day across
the east.
Friday night, the area will be on the backside of the upper trough
axis with a lingering chance for showers. Colder temperatures
could change any light rain to light snow for a few hours.
Little if any accumulation expected however.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Saturday, dry with northwest flow aloft, as an upper ridge builds
across the western U.S. and a deep upper trough over Hudson Bay
extends into the Great Lakes region. Although sunny, breezy
northerly winds and continued cool in the mid 40s.
Warmer Sunday, then slightly cooler Monday as a cold front drop
south across central and eastern Nebraska. Highs reflect this
from the low 60s far southwest to the mid 40s far northeast.
Then warmer Tuesday and Wednesday, as the upper flow becomes
quasi-zonal. Looks dry, except for the potential for a
shortwave trough passage Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night
when a slight chance for rain showers exist.
Highs should warm into the 60s Tuesday areawide, to the upper
60s to low 70s next Wednesday and Thursday. The 6-10 day outlook
indicates above normal temperatures and below normal
precipitation likely.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
The main aviation concern will be MVFR ceilings lowering to IFR
later tonight into Friday morning. Rain has moved into southwest
Nebraska and will spread north into north central Nebraska
overnight. Visibilities from -RA and BR will lower to near 2SM
OVC011 at KLBF by 04Z through 10Z, then remain near 5SM -RA BR through
Friday morning with an IFR ceiling near OVC005. At KVTN, MVFR
ceilings by 07Z in 4SM -RA BR, lowering to IFR ceilings
12Z-17Z, then improving to MVFR in the afternoon.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop into the region late this evening and
become nearly stationary over the region through early
Saturday. The front will lift northward on Saturday as a warm
front before a strong cold front passes through from the west
on Sunday. A secondary cold front follows in the wake while
tracking through early next week. Strong high pressure moves in
by mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Upstream showers have started to track through the area over the
last couple of hours. However, they have all quickly weakened
owing to a limited pool of instability. The 00Z RAP objective
analysis shows residual MUCAPE across the area, but with also
increasing inhibition. As such, echoes will continue to struggle
as they move through the region.
Forcing does improve through the overnight as a cold front moves
in from the west. This may expand shower coverage over the Mid-
Atlantic states. Most notably, the last several runs of the
HRRR favors a marked uptick in convective intensity,
particularly north of I-66. However, it does not have the most
support from other solutions at this time. Will maintain shower
chances through the overnight hours, accompanied by an isolated
thunderstorm or two. Nighttime temperatures are likely to hold
steady in the 50s to low 60s (mid 60s over far southern Maryland
and along I-64).
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front is expected to move into our region from the northwest
early on Friday and stall over our region. This boundary will become
the focus for shower and thunderstorm development through Saturday
morning. Main uncertainty with the front is how far south the front
will drop into our region before it becomes near stationary. A large
gradient in high temperatures is likely on Friday with high
temperatures north of the boundary not getting out of the 60s while
high temps south of the front will likely rising up into the 70s and
low 80s. The best chance for shower development will be in areas
along and just north of the front due to overrunning precipitation.
The front is forecast to lift back north of our region as a warm
front on Saturday leading to the return of warm air advection. A
period dry weather is likely Saturday afternoon before another round
of precipitation is possible late Saturday evening to Sunday due to
a cold frontal passage from the west. High temperatures are forecast
to recover on Saturday with highs in the 70s to low 80s for most of
the region. Areas in NE MD may remain cooler on the cold side of the
front. The threat for thunderstorms and severe weather should remain
low on Saturday as the cold front is forecast to pass through the
region late Saturday into Sunday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will cross the area Sunday afternoon triggering more
showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, east of
Route 15. Showers will also lag behind north of the frontal zone and
last through Sunday evening and may linger across far southern MD
until Monday afternoon.
A second stronger cold front will drop into the area late Monday
night with gusty NW winds and upslope precipitation as an anomalous
upper low crosses the northern Mid-Atlantic. 850T drop to -11C Tue
bringing unseasonably very chilly air for early April. Sub-freezing
temperatures are likely Wed and Thu mornings, in addition to
mountain snow. Temps rebound some during the second half of next
week, but remain below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some residual showers are possible during portions of the night,
with MVFR ceilings settling over all terminals but CHO by
daybreak on Friday. MVFR conditions are likely to continue
through Friday with winds becoming light out of the north. VFR
conditions are likely to return on Saturday for all terminals
but the Baltimore metro airports with winds slowly shifting out
of the south. BWI/MTN will likely become VFR late Saturday
afternoon to early Sat evening. Showers may impact all terminals
late Saturday into Sunday.
Gusts winds up to 30 kt Sunday behind the front and showers
persisting through Sunday evening. Second stronger cold front late
Monday night and Tue will bring stronger winds up to 35 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Wind gusts over the waters will slowly weaken through this
evening with SubSCA conditions likely on Friday into Saturday.
Small Craft Advisory level winds may return on Sunday.
SCA conditions are likely Sunday with the potential for Special
Marine Warnings. Strong SCA conditions Tue with potential for
gales.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ534-537-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BRO/JMG
NEAR TERM...BRO/JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...LFR/BRO/JMG
MARINE...LFR/JMG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
940 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 904 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
- Flash Flood Watch continues for a large portion of Middle TN
through Sunday morning. Any storms could quickly cause an issue
anywhere in the watch between now and then.
- Tornado Watch has been cancelled, though some storms are
possible in our northwestern quadrant before midnight. The
tornado threat is very low in this area, but hail and wind could
be an issue, still.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Currently in a lull here in Middle TN. All convective products,
including the watch, have been cancelled or ended for the time
being. For the rest of tonight, we should be relatively quiet --
unless you`re in the northwest quadrant of the mid-state. Ongoing
storms in west TN are expected to move into this area between 930
and 10 pm. Heavy rain will be the biggest issue, by far. As
saturated as everybody is after yesterday and today, any storms
could cause additional flooding issues very quickly (many areas
already have active Flash Flood Warnings issued). Hail is a
possibility with some of these storms, but a lower threat. That is
it for now. We`ll be doing the full forecast package here in few
hours and we`ll take a look at tomorrow and especially Saturday
regarding the severe/flooding threats.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 904 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
A surface boundary bisects Middle Tennessee this evening, with
abundant moisture located north of the boundary and drier air on
the warm side. At this time, the OHX radar is eerily PPINE across
most of Middle Tennessee, but this won`t last much longer. The
next round of storms is already crossing the Tennessee River into
Middle Tennessee and these will add to what are already some
hefty rainfall totals that have accumulated since yesterday.
Indeed, the storm total rainfall estimates are impressive, with a
large swath of 3 to 8" totals covering roughly the northwest half
of Middle Tennessee, and a large swath of zero amounts across
much of the southeast half. So the gradient is quite remarkable,
and it`s largely been defined by the aforementioned surface
boundary. Already, many of our river forecast points have reached
or are forecast to reach action stage, and a second surge will
occur on Sunday once the "Grand Finale" to this event takes place
with a long-awaited cold frontal passage. In the near-term, look
for additional cells to rumble into Middle Tennessee late this
evening and overnight, although not nearly to the extent that we
endured last evening and overnight. Tomorrow and tomorrow night we
expect low or no PoPs except for northwestern portions of the mid
state. So that will give us a bit of a breather before this days-
long active weather system finally comes to an impressive
conclusion. There is still some severe potential on days 1 and 2,
but at this point our greatest concern is flooding -- both flash-
flooding and river flooding. The atmosphere across a large
portion of the mid state has been abnormally warm and abnormally
moisture-laden. In fact, the NAEFS forecast Precipitable Water
anomalies valid for 00Z Sunday show standard deviations of 3-4
across northwest Middle Tennessee. The 00Z HRRR gives 48-hr QPF
values (running from now until 00Z Sunday) of 6 to 10" across a
northwest portions of Middle Tennessee, and that`s on top of what
has already occurred.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 904 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Rain chances will definitely linger into Sunday as the cold front
takes its time crossing the mid state. Much cooler air awaits on
the other side, along with several days of benign weather. We
even expect to see some frost or actual freezing temperatures
both Tuesday morning and again Wednesday morning. We`ll warm up
some by the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
MVFR CIGs are likely late tonight into the morning hours. IFR
conditions will be mostly confined to thunderstorms. Thunderstorms
will continue off and on until around midnight for CKV, BNA and
MQY. Beyond that timeframe showers or stratiform rain is more
likely. Some thunder may be embedded. Another round of storms is
possible tomorrow afternoon but activity will likely be more
isolated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 62 86 69 84 / 60 40 20 50
Clarksville 57 83 68 79 / 70 70 50 80
Crossville 66 82 64 82 / 20 20 0 10
Columbia 64 86 68 85 / 40 20 10 40
Cookeville 68 83 67 83 / 30 20 10 20
Jamestown 66 83 65 84 / 30 20 10 20
Lawrenceburg 70 85 68 84 / 30 20 10 30
Murfreesboro 63 86 68 85 / 40 20 10 30
Waverly 59 83 68 81 / 70 50 40 70
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ005>011-023>031-
056>060-062-093.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Hurley
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1113 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across and eventually north of the
region into this evening. A cold front then slowly moves
through tonight into Friday. The frontal boundary stalls, then
returns north as a warm front and pushes through Saturday into
Saturday night. The trailing cold front pushes through Sunday,
followed by weak low pressure tracking nearby along the boundary
on Monday. High pressure builds for mid week before pushing
offshore by late Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Visibilities have improved considerably across the entire
forecast area, and fog was taken out of the forecast for the
remainder of the night. Though visibilities may be reduced later
when showers move through. Also, lowered chance for
precipitation over the next several hours as there is lack of
any returns on the radar as of 11 pm, and current HRRR shows not
much until an hour or so before sunrise Friday. Therefore, also
lowered precipitation amounts over the next several hours. And,
while a passing thunderstorm is still possible, thinking is that
much of any thunderstorm activity passes to the south, so took
mention of thunder and heavy rain out of the forecast. Finally,
there is a strong temperature gradient across the area, even
within just a few miles. For example, JFK was 57 degrees, while
Central Park was 72 as of 11 pm. This is thanks to the
southwesterly flow, keeping conditions warm across portions of
NYC (away from the ocean) and points north and west, while the
relatively cooler flow off the ocean for Long Island and SE CT
keep these areas in the 50s.
Warm front expected to move farther north and eventually north
of the entire area tonight. A weakening cold front moves in
late tonight.
For tonight, expecting SW winds to decrease with a cold front
moving in. This cold front is weakening as it moves in as parent
low pressure fills in across Southeast Canada.
Expecting the fog to linger around especially across Southern CT
and Long Island. In addition, while the frontal forcing is weak,
mid level positive vorticity advection with smaller embedded
shortwave moves in. Upper level jet streak also moves north of
the area with its right rear quad getting close to the region
late tonight. This will enhance lift and with some ambient low
level instability, a few thunderstorms will be possible.
The convective coverage this evening is isolated to scattered at
most with convection being mostly south of Long Island where
greater instability will be located. The chances for showers
expand across the entire region late tonight, becoming likely,
with a slight chance of thunderstorms as well. Lows will not
have a wide range, just upper 40s to mid 50s.
Some drier air behind the cold front will allow for fog to
become less expansive by early Friday. The rain increasing will
also help mix out the low levels, allowing for fog to breakup.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With slight ridging aloft and upper jet staying north of the
area, the weak cold front moving through will slow down south of
the region. Not much steering flow.
Rain showers chances decrease Friday morning with drier air
coming in on a NW flow. With weakening pressure gradient, do not
expect much in the way of gusty winds. Some gusts near 15 to 20
mph along coast. High temperatures a blend of MAV and MET MOS,
mainly in the low to mid 60s. Clouds overcast to start with some
more breaks of sun for afternoon.
Friday night, increasing clouds from west to east as frontal
boundary to the south moves north as a warm front. Might even
have some light rain developing with isentropic lift late
heading into early Saturday morning. However, expecting much of
the night to be dry.
Some radiational cooling with light winds Friday evening before
clouds increase, so have lows ranging from upper 30s to upper
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An Atlantic seaboard and Western Atlantic ridge will give way to a
longwave trough during the period. Weak shortwave energy along with
a warm front, then a cold front along with a wave of low pressure
should bring rounds of unsettled weather for much of the weekend. As
the longwave trough sets up in the east, shortwave energy may impact
the area on Monday, and maybe towards the tail end of the period
late Thursday, at least according to the GFS and the EC-AIFS. Other
NWP guidance suggests it remains dry through the day Thursday.
A warm front should lift northeast and through the region to begin
the weekend. The timing of the warm front passing through remains in
question, but model consensus is suggestive that the warm front
lifts through Saturday night. Ahead of the warm front look for light
rain, with perhaps a few moderate bouts during the day. As the warm
front presses in look for a higher probability of fog across the
region with some possible reduced visibilities into the day and
early evening. The area should get into the warm sector, albeit
briefly late Saturday night and into Sunday morning with a warmer
WSW flow regime. The cold front will then push through sometime
Sunday afternoon / early evening. The winds will turn to the W, then
NW for Sunday night. The question is how far south does the cold
frontal boundary get late Sunday and Sunday night. NWP consensus has
the front remaining close enough to the region that the next impulse
moves up along the boundary in response to shortwave energy, and
higher PoPs coming back in for at least late in the day Sunday and
Sunday night. During Monday the boundary is progged to get just off
the coast, with PoPs for now confined to mainly eastern portions of
the area.
With the upper level trough pivoting through and some instability
and a cold pool aloft have kept low end chance minimal PoPs for
Monday night into Tuesday. A rather chilly Canadian based cP air
mass will build for the mid week. Temperatures are expected to get
below normal Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wind chill readings by
late Tuesday night / early Wednesday morning may get down into 20s
region wide with actual air temperatures near or below freezing
across the entire area. Temperatures during the day Wednesday will
struggle to get out of the 40s despite April sun. Another chilly
wake up is anticipated for Thursday with the high settling over the
area and a good radiational cooling set up anticipated. The high
should then start to get further east on Thursday with a return flow
setting up at the tail end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will move across late tonight with high pressure
building in for Friday.
All terminals have improved to VFR. Showers move in tonight in
association with the cold front after 04Z. With conditions
considerably improved and guidance suggesting minimal impact
with the showers in regards to flight categories, have kept VFR
in the forecast. However, brief MVFR conditions with the showers
overnight is still possible, mainly for clouds.
SW winds this evening 10 kt or less shift to the NW 5-10 kt
with cold fropa late tonight and increase to either side of 10
kt Fri morning. Occasional gusts possible early afternoon on
Friday to 20 kt, but did not look frequent enough to include in
TAFs.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Generally a VFR forecast, but brief MVFR possible with showers
that move through after 04Z. Therefore, amendments are
possible, especially after 04Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday Night: VFR.
Saturday: Showers likely. MVFR to IFR expected in the afternoon and
at night. SE winds G15-20kt.
Sunday: Chance of showers. Any IFR cond early should become MVFR.
SW winds G15-20kt.
Monday: Chance of showers with MVFR/IFR cond possible.
Tuesday: VFR. WNW winds G20-25kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
The warm front lifts north of the waters into this evening.
Visibilities have improved to greater than 1 NM on all waters,
and the Dense Fog Advisory that was in effect has been
cancelled.
Winds trend down eventually below SCA levels tonight and remain
below SCA levels Friday through Friday night. Ocean SCA seas
still expected into Friday, with Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island
Inlet ending at 10AM, Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet ending
at 2PM and Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point ending at 4PM. The
southerly wave component on the ocean has trended longer with
duration of SCA seas with both NWPS and Wavewatch, prompting the
further increase in SCAs. All waters below SCA levels Friday
night.
Sub advisory conditions should prevail for the most part through
Saturday night. On Sunday a S to SW flow strengthens ahead of a cold
front with small craft conditions prevailing on the ocean, with
marginal small craft conditions possible on the ocean and only
for the eastern and south shore bays of LI. Elevated seas are
likely to continue much of the ocean through at least Monday
night. Behind a cold front Tuesday look for small craft
conditions to continue on the ocean, and to develop on the non-
ocean waters with a WNW wind increasing. A period of gales
cannot be ruled out later Tuesday and Tuesday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding possible late tonight into early Friday for
western coastal sections around NYC Metro with any heavy
showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, no hydrological impacts
are anticipated through the period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JM
NEAR TERM...JM/JP
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JE/JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JE/JM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1104 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1057 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
- Strong/severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight and again
Friday night/early Saturday
- Slight chance of accumulating snow late Saturday/early Sunday
- Turning cold this weekend with freezing temperatures Sunday and Monday
mornings
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Early this afternoon, a nearly stationary frontal boundary extended
from the Arklatex southeast into central and southern Texas. On the
warm side of the boundary, deep rich moisture was observed with
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70S. To the north in Oklahoma
and western Texas, 40 to lower 50 degree dewpoints were noted with a
northeast to east wind. Although most of the rain and storms have
moved east of the area, water vapor imagery indicates the leading
edge of a disturbance/stronger flow beginning to impinge on the
Trans-Pacos region. The RAP moisture profiles are drier with rather
weak mid-level instability than the NAM. This may result in
additional widely scattered showers this afternoon/evening.
Late this evening and overnight, 850-700 mb flow is expected to
increase substantially north of the surface front in Texas. This
should again result in scattered to widespread showers and storms.
Elevated instability is expected to be higher generally along and
south of I-44 overnight into early Friday, perhaps farther north and
west. Therefore, there will be a risk of strong to severe
thunderstorms with a risk of large hail and damaging winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will persist Friday morning into perhaps
the early afternoon. There will be a continued risk of strong to
perhaps severe storms mainly across south central and southeastern
Oklahoma. By mid to late Friday afternoon, there is a slight chance
the frontal boundary will lift far enough north for near-surface
based convection. This would mainly be confined to far southeastern
Oklahoma (Bryan and Atoka counties). If this occurs, there will be
an opportunity for tornadoes, but again, the chances are much better
to our south and east.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected late Friday
evening and night. Better elevated instability is expected to
remain across western north Texas and southern Oklahoma where there
will be a risk of severe storms. If this occurs, the main hazards
will be hail and perhaps damaging winds.
Saturday is expected to be a wet and rather windy day, as the main
low to our west phases with a northern stream trough. Surface wind
gusts from the north may exceed 35 to 40 mph. Given the gusty winds
and temperatures mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, wind chill values
will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s (mainly along and
northwest of I-44)
Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible late tonight into parts
of Saturday. Although weekly rainfall totals could be impressive
for some (5+ inches), currently it appears unlikely rainfall rates
will be high enough for flash flooding. There is a low to medium
chance of a few creeks or rivers to approach or slightly exceed
flooding across Bryan and Atoka counties.
Model differ on how the low will lift across the southern Plains
late Saturday into Sunday morning. A more open wave should limit
the chance of accumulating snowfall, while a closed low will
increase the probability. Currently, there a medium chance (40-60%)
of greater than 1 inch of snowfall across part of northern and
western Oklahoma. Keep in mind, snowfall is not snow depth.
We will also have a chance of a freeze across northern and western
Oklahoma by early Sunday morning. Perhaps a better chance of a
widespread freeze will occur Monday morning with a clear sky and
light wind.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
The upper low and associated trough will continue to move east
through the weekend with NW flow developing over the region by early
next week. With the pattern shift, the forecast remains dry Sunday
into the middle of next week.
The cool/cold temperatures are expected again Sunday with
temperatures remaining well below average. Highs on Sunday are
expected to reach the 50s across the fa. Another cold night,
although not as cold as Saturday night in some areas, is expected
Sunday night with lows in the 30s across the fa. Some locations will
once again drop to or just a bit below freezing.
Temperatures are expected to warm back into the 60s and 70s next
week with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s by the middle of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
MVFR to IFR conditions will continue as the next system pushes
through the area overnight through tomorrow. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to begin moving into western north
Texas around midnight and continue northeastward through the day.
Additional reductions in visibilities are possible with any
thunderstorm that moves across a terminal. Most taf sites will see
at least some light rain/misty conditions for much of the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 58 46 55 44 / 90 70 90 90
Hobart OK 59 44 57 41 / 60 90 90 90
Wichita Falls TX 60 48 59 47 / 80 90 90 100
Gage OK 60 41 56 33 / 50 80 90 90
Ponca City OK 57 46 56 43 / 70 70 90 60
Durant OK 61 52 63 51 / 100 80 90 100
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
526 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold with continued mountain snow showers today with isolated
showers in valleys. Lingering showers in eastern highlands
Friday.
- Dry weekend as temperatures warm.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Deep trough over the Intermountain West in place but slowly moving
east per satellite imagery. Shortwave dropping through Idaho
Panhandle/Western Montana this afternoon combining with cold pool
over East Idaho to help produce showers across the region. Valley
temperatures are warm enough to be a mix of rain/snow, with snow
levels over mid and upper elevations. NBM produced just enough
Thunder to keep isolated mention across portions of the Central
Mountains, closest to the shortwave axis. Would not be surprised to
see a lightning strike anywhere else, but not enough confidence to
add it. HRRR produces some gusts out of the showers this afternoon,
to the tune of about 25-30mph, which would not be out of the realm
of possibility for early spring. Most of the activity should
decrease with loss of daytime heating, but shortwave trough takes
it`s time working through the region overnight, so will likely still
see isolated showers across the northeast corner. Northerly gradient
pushes down the Snake Plain overnight, and the recent HRRR runs are
trying to develop a weak pseudo-convergent band down through the
Lower Snake Plain and Eastern Magic Valley through the late night,
possible into the early morning hours. The NAM holds on to a thin
band of moisture that matches the timing, but does not quite get as
aggressive as the HRRR. If this band would develop, it could be able
to produce a quick skiff of snow overnight with temperatures falling
below freezing.
Northerly surface gradient continues through Friday, and will be
breezy especially across the northern portions of the Snake Plain.
Shower development will be possible across the Bear Lake region, in
vicinity of the departing low. Otherwise much drier conditions will
set in across the region, with temperatures creeping slightly
upwards towards more seasonable readings for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Dry and warmer conditions are expected over the weekend.
Temperatures by Sunday will be back into the 60s at lower
elevations. The next storm will impact us Monday and Tuesday for
the most part, with some lingering showers on Wednesday. With
temperatures remaining on the warm side, any snowfall will be
limited to really high elevations. The current forecasts really
don`t have a ton moisture falling either. The pattern favors the
Sawtooths (up 0.50") and Tetons (up to 0.30"). This is over
48-60 hour period. It will also be breezy but nothing too strong
at the moment. High pressure returns for the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Widespread rain and snow showers this afternoon will gradually
diminish this evening. Have either VCSH or -SHRA in the TAF at all
sites until about 03-05Z Friday. Even after showers decrease, cloud
cover continues with the best potential for MVFR CIGs from 10Z to
15Z Friday morning from IDA to PIH to BYI, and DIJ may even try to
get in on the MVFR fun. It`s about a 10 to 20 percent chance of
occurrence at IDA, BYI, and DIJ, with the NBM showing about a 20 to
30 percent chance at PIH. VFR conditions are expected by 18-19Z at
all sites. The one caveat to that is at DIJ where VCSH returns to
the forecast in the afternoon as we dry out at other sites. If a
shower passes directly over DIJ, look for at least MVFR CIGs/VIS for
a bit. Winds will pick up a bit at IDA and PIH in the afternoon,
too, with gusts around 15 to 20 kts.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...AMM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
903 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered rain/snow showers this evening, maybe a brief thunderstorm
southeast plains into early evening. Showers taper off overnight.
- Lull in precip Friday morning, before rain and snow showers
quickly redevelop in the afternoon.
- Heavy wet snowfall across the southern mountains into the Raton
Mesa Friday night into Saturday morning.
- Warmer and drier weather for the late weekend into early next
week.
- Above seasonal temperatures and increasing fire danger for the middle
of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Update to allow today`s Winter Weather Advisory to expire as
scheduled for the southern San Juan mountains, as snowfall rates
have begun to decrease below Advisory thresholds and winds have
begun to weaken as well. Tomorrow`s Winter Weather Advisory for
the San Juans remains in place, beginning at 6 PM Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Surface low over sern Colorado this afternoon, while upper level
wave lifts newd along the CO/UT border. Combination of these
features was producing scattered rain and snow (afternoon snow
levels around 6k feet) showers across the region, though in general,
shower coverage has been a little less than forecast, as low level
dry air mass has limited the strength/coverage of precipitation.
Enough low level moisture (dewpoints near 40f) and instability (CAPE
400-600 J/KG) have advected north ahead of the surface low to help
generate scattered tsra over the sern plains, with most activity
remaining relatively close to the KS border at mid-afternoon. A low
end, brief severe storm will be possible this area late this
afternoon, main threat would be wind guts over 60 mph given limited
instability. For this evening, showers and plains thunderstorms
will continue to lift northward through the area, with most precip
ending/shifting north of the area between sunset/midnight. Any
additional snow accums look spotty and light, generally under 2
inches.
On Friday, main upper trough swings eastward along the U.S./Mexico
border while surface cold front drops through the area during the
day. Upward vertical motion increases across as a result, with
isolated rain/snow showers in the morning becoming more widespread
and intense as we move through the afternoon. Areas along and south
of Highway 50 continue to look most favored for precip, and HRRR
suggests a few thunderstorms are possible as well, mainly along the
surface front over the sern plains in the afternoon. Farther west,
heaviest snow across the mountains will be over the ern San Juans
(new winter wx advisory here for Fri night/Sat), with snowfall
dropping off fairly quickly to the north. Clouds and increasing
precip will keep max temps cool, with maxes on the plains in the low
50s the warmest numbers we`ll see.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Friday night-Saturday...No big changes in the current forecast as
models continue to agree on a broad upper trough translating across
the northern tier as southern stream energy develops a closed upper
low across southwestern New Mexico Friday afternoon. This upper low
then continues to lift out across west central Texas through Saturday
afternoon. Showers will be ongoing over and near the higher terrain
Friday afternoon, with increasing sfc-h7 east to northeast flow behind a
passing cold front, will bring the focus of moderate to heavy snow fall
across the SE Mtns into the southern I-25 Corridor Friday night through
Saturday morning, before precipitation wanes from north to south
through the day Saturday. Latest model data continues to bring higher
confidence of 8 to 14 inches snow across the Southern Sangre de Cristo
Mtns, where a Winter Storm Watch remains in place. With snow totals
coming down slightly across the Eastern San Juans and across the Raton
Mesa and southern I-25 Corridor, we have issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for Zone 68, with 5 to 10 inches possible, but have kept the
Winter Storm Watch for the Raton Mesa and southern I-25 Corridor with
the potential of 4 to 8 inches of snow, with the highest amounts
closest to the higher terrain. If current forecast remains true, we
may need to add Winter Weather Advisories further north across the
Northern Sangres and into the Wet Mtns, with 4 to 9 inches possible.
With the continued further south trajectory of the upper low, snow
fall projections and impacts have come down across the Pikes Peak
region, where 2 to 6 inches may be possible, along with 1 to 3 inches
of snow possible across the rest of higher terrain into northern
portions of the I-25 Corridor. Temperatures will be well below
seasonal levels, with highs in the 30s and 40s across the lower
elevations, and mainly in the 20s and 30s across the higher terrain
on Saturday.
Sunday-Thursday...Upper level ridging remains progged to build across
the region into early next week, with more westerly flow then progged
through the middle of the work week, with the ridge being flattened by
short waves moving across the Northern Tier. This will allow for warmer
and drier conditions, with temperatures warming back to near seasonal
through Monday. Warming continues through the rest of the work
week, with a few minor waves within the increasing westerly flow
leading to a few possible mtn showers and increasing fire
danger into the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025
KALS...VFR conditions through the rest of the evening into the
overnight hours. Around 21Z, light snow showers could lower
ceilings and bring along MVFR conditions. Visibility may also
be reduced due to the light snow showers, but impacts to
visibility seem minimal.
KCOS...VFR conditions through the rest of the evening into the
overnight hours. Around 17Z, light snow showers may lower
ceilings and bring along MVFR conditions. There may be some
impacts to visibility and ceilings will lower around 23Z, which
will possibly bring IFR conditions.
KPUB...VFR conditions expected through the majority of the
period. Around 19Z, MVFR conditions may be possible due to
lowered ceilings and light snow at the end of the period.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM MDT Saturday
for COZ068.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon for COZ074-075.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
afternoon for COZ087-088.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EHR
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...CLOUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1029 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A system serves up showers and thunderstorms at times through
the weekend, with flooding increasingly likely for the Mid-Ohio
Valley region. Dry weather finally returns Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1029 PM Thursday...
Stationary front has drifted a bit eastward and is now over
central WV. It will remain here overnight and into tomorrow.
West of the front temperatures will be cooler with locations
along the Ohio River and our Ohio counties seeing lows in the
50s, even dropping into the upper 40s tonight. On the eastern,
warm side of the front temperatures will be in the 60s. It will
be balmy with areas of patchy mist from stagnant moisture in the
air. Visibilities could be reduced down to a couple miles at
times due to the mist and drizzle. Short-range, HiRes models
are still showing the next round of heavy rain arriving after
midnight and into Friday morning.
As of 813 PM Thursday...
The pesky stationary front remains parked along our western
periphery this evening allowing for showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms to continue sailing up from our southwest. Seeing
a bit of dry slot across the coalfields and central lowlands of
West Virginia though and a few lingering thunderstorms along our
eastern mountains. Radar/satellite obs do show more on the way
though. Latest HRRR run shows two heavy rounds of showers and
possibly a few storms tonight and Friday. One between midnight
and 3am as the front trudges slowly east, then another that
looks to move through between 6am and 11am as the front stalls
over our area.
Flooding risk continues into tonight with any additional rainfall
on top of already saturated soils. Locations of particular concern
are western and southwestern WV, northeastern KY, and our Ohio
counties. Current WPC QPF output shows a swath of 1 inch plus
across the Tri-State Area and southwestern WV overnight with
these rounds of rainfall.
As of 235 PM Thursday...
Key Points:
* A stalled frontal boundary pierced through the heart of the
forecast area will promote periods of moderate to heavy rain.
* Renewed potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
encroaches the southern coalfields through tonight.
After a brief lull in convective activity earlier today, a
stalled frontal boundary will serve as the catalyst for strong
to possibly severe thunderstorms shortly after this issuance and
into tonight. The 16Z surface analysis denotes the front to be
draped through parts of Ohio and down through the Tennessee
Valley. For now, this places our CWA in the warm sector of the
ongoing low pressure system and at the forefront for more severe
weather here in the next few hours.
Satellite imagery at the time of writing shows the bulk of the
Central Appalachians coated beneath cloud cover, while our
neighboring states to the south have achieved partial clearing
and cumulus development. As further clearing attempts to occur
across our coalfields, a similar trend in cumulus development
could arise and set off renewed potential for severe
thunderstorms through the course of the afternoon and evening.
If proper destabilization can take shape, coupled with strong
low to mid level flow still prevalent via the KRLX VAD Wind
Profile, all severe hazard types will remain at play with
activity today.
For the rest of the forecast period, the stalled front will
continue to wobble in and around the Ohio River Valley as
impulses of renewed moisture ride along the boundary. Where the
front sets up during periods of heavier rainfall will yield the
concerns for flash and prolonged flooding. The first wave of
higher rainfall amounts will be shuttled by the Tri-State area
and the northern outskirts of the CWA this evening into tonight.
This location has already been primed by antecedent rainfall
both yesterday and today, and could be enough to send local
creeks and streams further out of their banks. There is also
growing concern for additional counties in northeast West
Virginia that may observe slightly higher rainfall amounts than
previously anticipated between now and into the weekend.
Therefore, elected to expand the Flood Watch up the I-79
corridor through Sunday morning.
The afternoon model suite hints at a lull in precipitation on
Friday as the upper level jet noses northward. This initiates a
bit of a dry slot to occur in the southern coalfields and
portions of the lowlands by the late afternoon and evening.
Friday highs could branch into the upper 70s/low 80s for the
extreme southern portions of the forecast area, while blanketing
clouds across the north maintain peak temperatures in the
50s/60s. There still remains uncertainty regarding radar
activity on Friday, but elected to agree with neighboring
offices with placing the highest POPs across the Muskingum River
basin and northward.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1155 AM Thursday...
A warm front will lift north of the area Saturday morning, and much
of Saturday currently looks quiet across West Virginia and southwest
Virginia with warm, dry weather. In fact, the middle and upper 80s
can be expected across the West Virginia lowlands during the
afternoon as clouds mix with some sunshine. However, portions of
southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky will likely see showers and
thunderstorms, especially the far northwestern tier of our coverage
area. SPC currently has a slight risk of severe storms across parts
of these areas Saturday. This threat will limited by lower amounts
of instability, but shear will remain plentiful for thunderstorm
organization (40-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear).
The main cold front will begin to approach Saturday night, and rain
chances will return from west to east. Rainfall could be heavy at
times overnight, especially across southeast Ohio, where WPC
currently has a slight risk of excessive rainfall forecast. In
addition, the heavy rainfall will also lead to an increased threat
of river flooding, especially along and west of the Ohio River.
Rain will track across West Virginia Sunday, with an additional 0.50-
1.00" possible across the state (heavier amounts west, lighter
amounts east). An additional 1.00-1.50" will be possible across
southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1155 AM Thursday...
High pressure will finally build back into the region behind this
extended stretch of unsettled weather. Monday and Tuesday will be
much colder than normal with highs only in the upper 40s to lower
50s each day in a post-frontal airmass. Temperatures should return
to the 50s and lower 60s Wednesday with a ridge building back over
the Ohio Valley. The next chance of precipitation will be Thursday
will a potential upper-level low approaching from the west, but much
uncertainty exists at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 747 PM Thursday...
Seeing a brief reprieve from heavy rainfall across the area at
this hour. Then expecting off and on showers of rain and a
couple embedded thunderstorms, some heavy at times, overnight
thanks to a nearly stationary boundary hanging around the area.
Visibility and ceilings will vary quite a bit overnight as areas
outside precipitation and convection will likely be VFR. MVFR
and IFR conditions expected in and around any activity. Any
thunderstorms that form could contain damaging wind gusts,
hail, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall.
Rainfall that continues into Friday morning will likely be on
the heavier side with MVFR and IFR restrictions coded into the
TAF at most sites. Models do show a bit of a break after ~18z
Friday, but there is medium confidence as to where this will
occur due to the fronts variable positioning. Another round of
heavy showers looks to move in Friday night into Saturday.
Winds will mostly be light and variable to calm at most sites
tonight and tomorrow, though a more uniform SW`rly direction is
likely at BKW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of
thunderstorms and heavy rain may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 04/04/25
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H M M H M H H M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H M H H H H M H M
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday
night through Sunday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-
027>032-039-040.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-
083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK/LTC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1033 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
A quick update was made to adjust POPs and Temps based on current
trends. Currently the aforementioned cold front has dropped
southward to near a line from Bullard Texas, to just north of
Shreveport, to near Huttig Arkansas. This has been depicted well
be the HRRR model, so decided to rely heavy on it for this update
for frontal positioning. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop just behind the front, but since its post
frontal, we believe the severe weather threat will be minimal.
The front is expected to retreat back northward again overnight,
with short-term progs lifting it as far north as the I-30
corridor. Not expecting any widespread severe weather tonight, but
an isolated strong to severe storm can`t be ruled out closer to
daybreak, as widespread convection is expected to regenerate
near and north of I-30 corridor. /20/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Another active afternoon of convection has already yielded a few
severe thunderstorm warnings along the Red River straddling Texas
and Oklahoma. These areas are still north of the sfc boundary so
large hail has been the primary concern up to this point given the
elevated nature of these storms and with temperatures only in the
mid 50s. For this reason, Severe Tstm Watch 108 was issued for a
handful of counties including Red River in NE TX, McCurtain in SE
OK along with Sevier and Howard in SW AR to account for the large
hail threat in these areas.
Farther south toward I-30 where the boundary is roughly oriented,
temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s. From there, temperatures
quickly surge into the 70s and mostly the 80s farther SE where an
increasingly expansive warm sector environment resides across the
remainder of the region. Similar to what was observed around this
time yesterday afternoon, weak CIN continues to limit convection
south of the boundary so far this afternoon with our 19Z special
sounding indicating a nearly eroded mid-level cap as compared to
earlier this morning. With that mind, Tornado Watch 109 was also
issued in concert with the Severe Watch with the former taking in
our northern row of LA parishes and nearly all of East & Northeast
TX.
Given that sfc-based CAPE values are pushing 4500 J/kg per our
19Z sounding, storms should develop and mature quite rapidly once
the cap is fully eroded by late afternoon. 0-6km shear is pushing
50 kts with similar values at 0-3km, yielding SRH around 400m2/s2
and possibly higher closer to the boundary. For this reason, a few
strong tornadoes remain possible with any discrete supercells that
may manage to develop. Large hail and damaging wind threats remain
in place as well anywhere in the Tornado Watch area. What seems to
be lacking in this equation is a strong forcing mechanism aloft as
the SW flow regime hasn`t really yielded a significant shortwave
across our region quite yet today. A rather strong impulse has now
rounded the base of the primary trough axis still well to our west
so it`s uncertain whether this feature will have time to make much
difference in terms of increased forcing, thus additional cooling
aloft. Regardless, sfc instability and mid-level lapse rates may
prove to be strong enough to overcome the lack of stronger forcing
aloft. Both Watch products are in effect through 10 PM with the
severe threat diminishing thereafter.
Unfortunately, we rinse and repeat all over again on Friday as the
broader trough axis begins to slowly eject farther east from the
Four Corners region. This should allow for added forcing across
the NW half of the region, which is why SPC opted to upgrade much
of this area to a Moderate Risk for Friday. Another important
factor in this decision is a further northward shift of the sfc
boundary that is expected overnight through the day Friday with
the warm sector effectively encompassing our entire region by this
time tomorrow. All modes will continue to be in play with tornado
and large hail threats especially concerning in this unstable and
highly sheared environment, most notably in the Moderate/Enhanced
Risk areas. The severe threat will persist into the evening hours
on Friday night before gradually trending downward after midnight.
As if that weren`t enough, we still have to contend with the ever
increasing heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat across much of
our northern half. The current Flood Watch remains unchanged for
this forecast update, and we will continue to monitor rain rates
and amounts over the next 12-24 hours to see if further expansion
of the Flood Watch toward the I-20 corridor becomes necessary.
/19/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
By Saturday, we finally get trough axis entering the Southern and
Central Plains with one more round of severe weather and heavy
rainfall to get through before this prolonged period of unsettled
weather is over. The trough will serve to propel the sfc boundary
eastward through the region by Saturday afternoon into the evening
and overnight hours. This will maintain all modes once again with
increasing shear and instability ahead of the front, especially if
the timing pushes a bit later into the afternoon and early evening
during peak heating times. Likewise, the flash flooding threat
will persist as well across at least the northern half of the area
with the Flood Watch in effect through early Sunday morning.
All the convection and severe/flood threats should come to an end
by daybreak on Sunday as the cold front pushes along the MS River.
We will likely be dealing with lingering river flooding impacts
into next week, but much of that will depend on exactly how much
and where the heavy rainfall occurs. Beyond that, a quiet period
of weather is expected for the early to middle part of next week
with below normal temperatures and dry conditions which will be
very welcome in the wake of our marathon of severe weather this
week.
/19/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Stubborn boundary remains oriented west to east, and just north
of the I-20 terminals this evening. Overrunning showers prevail
north of the boundary, with a general BKN/OVC sub 5kft
presentation on satellite airspace wide. Gusty S/SW winds remain a
factor for the I-20 terminals and south, while fluid VRB looks to
remain along and just north of the boundary. Expectation is for
the boundary to drift back north again tomorrow, so the stronger
southerlies will return for all terminals. Again, like today, SHRA
will start the day with the return of possible severe mid to late
afternoon and early evening TSRA where the boundary finalizes.
Tomorrow, highest probs look to be within a region from KTYR/KGGG
to KTXK.
KNAPP
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 425 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and early evening
across Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas,
and Northwest Louisiana for expected severe thunderstorms and
heavy rainfall.
/15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 88 72 80 / 40 60 70 100
MLU 74 89 73 83 / 20 30 40 100
DEQ 56 79 59 68 / 70 90 100 100
TXK 59 84 67 75 / 60 80 90 100
ELD 61 86 67 79 / 40 70 70 100
TYR 66 83 62 71 / 30 80 100 100
GGG 73 85 66 75 / 30 80 90 100
LFK 73 86 70 79 / 20 40 60 100
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ077.
TX...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...53
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
912 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 911 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
- Severe storm chances return late tonight into Friday morning,
especially across SE OK and W-Central AR.
- Rain chances continue through the weekend with heavy rain and
flood potential increasing, especially across SE OK and
W-Central AR.
- Much cooler weather arrives this weekend, with rain possibly
changing to snow Sunday morning north of I-40. A freeze is
expected in some locations Sunday or Monday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
The main updates this evening were to PoPs and thunder probs, to
align with the latest model trends. Thunderstorm activity that
occurred during the afternoon that dropped some hail up to quarter
size has moved off to the east. The stalled front lies over the
ArkLaTex between Texarkana and Shreveport, extending southwest
toward the Big Bend and east near the AR/LA border. The boundary
will remain south of the forecast area thru Friday morning. A
lead impulse rotating out of the southwest CONUS upper low/trough
will get the ball rolling for the next round of rain and storms
late tonight into Friday morning as lift occurs atop the cool air
in place at the surface north of the stalled front. The 00Z HRRR
shows some strong to severe storms moving into the region aft 10Z
with several UH tracks. Again these storms will be elevated, and
thus hail will be the primary threat, with some very localized
damaging wind possible. Used the model blend thunder probs in the
near term, trending toward PoP=thunder prob aft 09Z.
Lacy
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon )
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Mild and showery weather will continue for the next few hours before
diminishing this evening. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible
for portions of southeast OK into northwest AR through the
afternoon. As the lower levels are quite stable and these storms
are elevated, the main threat would be marginally severe hail. Temperatures
will remain in the mid 50s for the remainder of the afternoon,
eventually falling to the upper 40s to low 50s tonight for most
locations.
The next round of rainfall will arrive overnight tonight into Friday
morning. Ahead of this rainfall, the low level boundary which is
currently south of the Red River will surge back into the area. This
will allow for deeper moisture and better instability to spread
north, though mainly across southeast OK and west-central AR.
Meanwhile, a strong low level jet will increase shear and helicity.
These factors will promote yet another severe weather threat Friday
early morning. The most likely threats will be large hail and
damaging wind, but an isolated tornado is certainly possible where
storms can become surface based, with the higher risk to the
south and east. Showers and non- severe thunderstorms will spread
through the remainder of the area by dawn. Areas of heavy rainfall
may develop, with a Flood Watch for portions of the area active
during this period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Widespread shower activity will be ongoing during the day Friday
with scattered thunderstorms at times. Storm activity will be most
widespread south of the boundary discussed in the short term, so
portions of southeast OK and west-central AR will see the greatest
coverage and heavier precipitation. By Friday afternoon and
evening storm coverage and intensity is expected to ramp up as
frontogenesis intensifies along the boundary. Additionally, better
forcing will arrive from the west as the main upper level trough
becomes negatively tilted. Severe storm potential will increase
for a few hours during the evening, as well as the flood
potential.
Heavy rainfall will be more or less continuous for areas under the
Flood Watch Friday afternoon through Saturday. This will occur with
excellent diffluence aloft leading to deep ascent. Meanwhile, near
record max precipitable water and integrated vapor transport (above
the 99th percentile relative to climatology) along with solid
instability will result in efficient precipitation processes. EPS
EFI values for precipitation for this period reach 0.9 for
portions of the area, which implies a very unusual event. Heavy
rain continues into Saturday, with moderate precipitation
spreading back north across the rest of the forecast area.
Additional rainfall of 1-3" for northeast OK, and 3-6" elsewhere
is still expected. A few localized areas may see up to 8" of
rainfall. Obviously this will result in both a river and flash
flood potential. Several rivers are expected to reach minor to
moderate flood stage. Those who are impacted by river flooding
should be paying careful attention to the forecast. By Saturday,
cooler air will be filtering in, with only a very marginal risk of
severe weather. Gusty northerly winds will reach speeds of 30-40
mph, so a Wind Advisory may eventually be needed.
Finally, the upper level low will will eject across the area
Saturday night into Sunday with a stout trowal developing within the
"wraparound" portion of the storm, This final band of heavy
precipitation will mostly track north of I-40, though some
uncertainty exists with respect to the exact placement and
intensity. Forecast soundings actually indicate a borderline snow
setup with melting snow diabatically cooling the column from near
700 hPa to the surface to near freezing. In theory, this could
result in a few hours of mixed or even all snow in a few locations.
In particular, high elevation locations would be more favorable to
pick up brief snow. Given the time of year and recent weather,
the surface is quite warm. This would make actual accumulation
very difficult, but its not out of the question a few spots could
see a brief dusting of snow to maybe a slushy inch on grassy or
elevated surfaces Sunday morning. Travel impacts are very unlikely.
With the cool airmass in place, a frost or freeze may occur for
many areas north of I-40 Sunday or especially Monday morning.
Temperatures will slowly moderate into the middle of next week with
no additional rainfall expected. High temperatures may reach the
upper 70s to near 80F by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
A very complex aviation forecast over the next 24 hours. Flying
conditions will deteriorate tonight as ceilings progressively
lower from VFR/MVFR to MVFR/IFR to eventually widespread IFR
through the period. After a short lull in precipitation late this
evening, widely scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected to redevelop and spread into the forecast area from
the southwest late tonight into early Friday morning, with
precipitation chances persisting through much of the TAF period.
First round of moderate to heavy thunderstorms will push through
during the morning hours, with scattered showers lingering into
the afternoon. Another round of intense thunderstorms will develop
mostly across far eastern OK and northwest AR by mid- late
afternoon. Reductions in visibilities are likely with the more
intense thunderstorm activity. Winds will initially start out of
the northeast, then will gradually back out of the north with time
at most TAF sites.
Mejia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 50 59 46 52 / 70 90 80 100
FSM 53 70 55 59 / 80 100 100 100
MLC 53 65 49 56 / 90 100 90 100
BVO 49 58 43 52 / 60 90 70 90
FYV 51 66 48 54 / 70 100 90 100
BYV 49 64 48 52 / 60 100 100 100
MKO 52 61 47 54 / 80 90 90 100
MIO 50 58 45 51 / 60 90 80 100
F10 51 59 47 53 / 80 90 90 100
HHW 54 69 53 60 / 90 90 100 100
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Sunday morning for
OKZ049-053-063-068>076.
AR...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Sunday morning for
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67