Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/03/25

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

 1010 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms possible (40-60% chance) this afternoon
  across portions of northeast Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin.
  An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out with
  wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph.

- Gusty winds develop behind a passing cold front this afternoon
  and into the evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
  portions of northeast IA from 1 PM to 7 PM for wind gusts up
  to 45 mph.

- Seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures for Thursday
  and onward with some precipitation chances (20-60%) late
  Friday and early Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Rest of Today: Storms This Afternoon, Gusty Winds into this Evening

The overall threat for any strong to severe storms across northeast
IA and southwest WI has been diminishing in recent model runs which
have some subsidence present throughout the mid-levels this
afternoon and suggest low-topped convection. As we head towards
noon, a pre-frontal mid-level trough will swing northeast of the
region, with a present TROWAL warming the 500-700mb layer and thus
capping this layer as well. In addition to this, a strong low-level
cap is already present this morning as warm advection begins to push
into the region prior to warming surface temperatures. As surface
warming takes place ahead of an incoming cold front, several of the
CAMs have the cap breaking and allowing for convection to the top of
the secondary cap at 500-600mb where our equilibrium layer is
roughly 14kft as shown in the 02.15z RAP/HRRR. A couple points of
consideration need to be realized in order for convection to
manifest though. The first of these is that surface temperatures
need to warm quickly over the next couple of hours from the low-
level warm advection. If cloud cover mitigates this or the warm
advection is not robust enough, the low-level cap will remain in
place and convection simply will not occur. Second, with the mid-
level subsidence and stable layer present, the question is if this
would suppress any convection if the lift in the low-level is not
sufficient.

Assuming that convection is able to take place, gusty to potentially
damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat with the 02.15z
RAP/HRRR having a low-level jet of 45 to 65 kts and winds atop the
equilibrium layer reaching 80 to 100 kts. As a result, any
subsidence with this convection could momentum transfer a stray 40-60
mph gust or two. This is seconded by the HRRR machine learning
probabilities (5-10% chance) which only have severe probabilities
for wind gusts in excess of 58 mph. Given the equilibrium levels top
out at around 14kft, the top of the convective layer would only get
to around -5C, as a result hail seems to be very unlikely and likely
you would not see any lightning with these convective cells.
This may change as you head further west into north-central IA
where the depth of the convective layer in 02.15z HRRR/RAP
soundings is slightly deeper and may be conducive for hail and
lightning production. Cannot completely rule out a weak tornado
with these as 0-3km CAPE ranges from 100-150 J/kg with residual
0-1km SRH as high as 200 m2/s2 that rapidly diminishes as the
cold front approaches. As the cold front progresses through the
region, we stabilize the low-levels quickly and thus ending any
potential for convection.

Later into the afternoon and evening, low-level cold air advection
will aid in momentum transfer of stronger low-level winds down to
the surface as they mix into a 35 to 50 kt low-level jet. The
strongest of these wind gusts generally will be over unsheltered
areas of northeast IA where the 02.12z HREF has fairly high
probabilities (40-70%) for wind gusts over 40 mph. Consequently,
have continued the wind advisory for portions of northeast IA
through 7pm this evening.

Thursday and Beyond: Calmer Conditions with Cooler Temperatures

Looking to the end of the work week, Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT
this evening for IAZ008-018-019-     029.the overall upper-level
flow pattern features a broad trough situated over the western CONUS
with upper-level ridging in the east and our area squarely in
southwesterly flow. Some weak upper-level ridging sneaks its way in
for late Thursday and Friday allowing in temperatures with the
national blend keeping highs on Friday in the lower to middle 50s
for the area, perhaps some upper 50s. As we head into Friday night
and Saturday, a northern stream trough phases with the
aforementioned broader western trough as a developing surface low
progresses northeast through the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Depending
on how these two upper-level features interact, deterministic models
push the northern extent of the associated deformation zone of this
low into the southern half of our area. The grand ensemble
(GEFS/Canadian/EC ens) depict fairly high probabilities (50-80%
chance) for measurable precipitation south of I-90 but unlikely (10-
40% chance) seeing more than 0.1" late Friday and into Saturday.
Overall, does not look impactful but is likely our next realistic
shot at any precipitation. After this system moves east of our
region, a descending upstream trough will provide some cold air
advection which will push temperatures below normal for Sunday and
into Monday with highs in the 40s to lower 50s south of I-94 with
some upper 30s for highs on Monday in north-central WI. Cannot rule
out some snow showers (15-25% chance) as it passes overnight Sunday
and on Monday morning but still quite a bit of uncertainty amongst
deterministic and ensemble guidance as to how much moisture will be
present, so have opted to hold with the national blend for
precipitation chances for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

CIGS: MVFR cigs expected through the night and the better part of
the day Thursday. Short term models scatter it out Thu evening as
weak high pressure moves overhead...and favored through Thu night.
That said, a few models suggest some low level RH could linger, and
perhaps re-manifest as low stratus Thu night. Going to stay the
SKC/SCT for now and monitor.

WX/vsby: no impacts expected.

WINDS: west staying fairly breezy/gusty through Thu morning. Winds
will be diminishing by mid/late afternoon Thu as high pressure
starts to influence the region. Light north/northeast Thu night.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Naylor
AVIATION.....Rieck




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

 1007 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dynamic low pressure system to our west will spread
widespread, and occasionally heavy, precipitation along with areas
of strong winds tonight into Thursday. As temperatures climb,
snow will quickly become a wintry mix and then all rain by the
daytime hours for most locations. Much warmer conditions during
the afternoon will give way to a cold front, bringing
temperatures back down to more seasonable values to end the
week ahead of another wet period over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1001 PM EDT Wednesday...Winter weather and wind headlines
are unchanged as a potent warm air advection scenario unfolds
tonight through tomorrow morning.

Things continue to play out as expected. Snow and a wintry mix
continue to lift northeast. Both Massena and Potsdam are
currently reporting freezing rain suggesting the SPS was a good
call. CCs on KTYX don`t appear to indicate much in the way of
varying precipitation types and the RAP mesoanalysis suggests
mid-level temperatures have yet to warm above freezing. Perhaps
some of this is less saturation in the DGZ than forecast
soundings suggested, and there is some embedded freezing
drizzle within the batch of lighter reflectivities. Other than
that, forecast soundings do highlight modest mid-level
instability with the latest RAP suggesting elevated CAPE
potentially in excess of 300 J/kg. Given the vertical forcing
and observed lightning near Lake Huron, there is now thunder
expressly in the forecast overnight into early tomorrow morning.
All else is in good shape. Previous discussion below...

All winter weather types are expected across the region tonight
before temperatures warm well above freezing tomorrow amidst
impressive dramatic warming aloft; 850 millibar temperatures
will surge from roughly -5 Celsius to 10 Celsius within 6 hours
in much of the area (about 25 degrees Fahrenheit of warming up
to a few thousand feet above the ground). Generally as the cold
air erodes, precipitation type should trend from snow to sleet
to freezing rain and plain rain. Unusually high probabilities of
sleet as the primary weather type amongst model guidance exists
for a substantial period of time tonight. This precipitation
type is consistent with how high aloft the strong warm nose is
expected to be and the resulting large refreeze layer with our
antecedent cold air. That being said, as that refreeze layer
shrinks with continuing low level south winds, precipitation
will go over to freezing rain and rain overnight.

Given how strong the southwest jet is, even the more vulnerable
eastern mid-slope locations in the Greens should warm above
freezing within a few hours of that wintry mix period. Before
that happens though, the precipitation rates associated with
convection, and pre-dawn timing, are looking significant in
terms of frozen precipitation. Higher elevations will have a
shallower cold layer such that ice will accumulate in some of
the same areas that saw significant ice last weekend. With this
forecast, we did bump up ice accretions a bit in these areas for
this forecast although confidence in sub-warning levels is high
(under 0.5" flat ice). So while the duration of freezing rain
looks brief, potential for icy conditions is high in much of the
Winter Weather Advisory area through daybreak.

In addition to winter weather, we also have an unusually high
probability of thunderstorms through the overnight period associated
with rich moisture at the top of an elevated mixed layer several
thousand feet above the ground. The timeframe continues to look
largely in the early morning hours, roughly between 2 AM and 8
AM, and this could be overlapping with precipitation in the form
of snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain as surface temperatures
remain marginally cold. Given the strong inversion, don`t be
surprised to be woken up to loud thunder as convection may be
rather widespread overnight.

After the winter weather, we will move into a period of strong
winds. Peak south winds still look to be coincident with rain
showers early in the morning, which will limit the spatial
extent of the gusts outside of the northern Champlain Valley and
northern slopes of the Adirondacks. Winds will be unusually
strong for this time of year on Lake Champlain with sustained 40
40 MPH winds possible, especially around or a bit before
daybreak. Then the potential for strong wind southwesterly wind
gusts throughout northern New York through the afternoon hours
remains high as cooler and drier air aloft moves into the
region. Mean mixed layer winds will easily be in excess of 45
MPH and upwards of 55 MPH in northwestern portions of northern
New York, especially in the late afternoon, given 60 to 65 knots
at 850 millibars and steepening lapse rates.

Afternoon deep convection remains very unlikely due to warm and
dry air aloft. So despite some steep lapse rates and warm and
humid air at the surface ahead of the cold front, any showers
that develop and shift south and east should not grow
sufficiently tall to produce lightning. Post frontal west winds
have trended a bit stronger with the latest data. However, even
in eastern slopes winds do largely taper off after 8 PM so the
end time of the wind advisory looks reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 313 PM EDT Wednesday...The short term begins rather seasonable
with dry conditions between weather systems this week. Friday will
feature sunny skies with highs in the mid to upper 40s, with low 50s
in the valleys. Winds will generally be light with some breezy
conditions across the Northeast Kingdom. By Friday night,
temperatures will fall into the upper 20s/low-to-mid 30s, with
clouds increasing ahead of our next weather system tracking out of
the Ohio Valley.

Sandwiched between a sub-tropical high off the Carolinas, and
another high centered over the northern Plains, a stationary front
will set up from the Gulf into our region. Rounds of precipitation
over the weekend look likely as moisture and repeated lows track
northeastward. Precipitation will move in by Saturday morning as
mainly rain for most locations. Higher elevations in the Adirondacks
and along the spine of the Greens could start off as a wintry mix of
freezing rain and sleet before changing over to all rain. Little to
no snow is currently expected, but the Adirondacks and the spine of
the Greens could see a glaze of ice from freezing rain Saturday
morning. Temperatures on Saturday will rise into the mid to upper
40s which will see precipitation change completely over to rain
areawide. The Northeast Kingdom could see wintry mix conditions
return by late Saturday afternoon from potential wet-bulbing and
normal diurnal cooling towards the evening. A low-level jet looks to
accompany the moisture which could mix down to the surface gusty
winds with 30 to 40 knots winds at the top of the boundary layer.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 313 PM EDT Wednesday...A pair of blocking highs looks to keep
the remainder of the weekend and start of next week on the wet side.
Rain will continue Saturday night with some locations still holding
on to a wintry mix, especially in the Northeast Kingdom. Rain will
continue throughout the day Sunday becoming more showery by Sunday
afternoon. The uncertainty in precipitation amounts lies in the
location of where the boundary sets up. The GFS, which is running
cooler than consensus firstly, is more progressive with the system,
becoming more showery with less overall QPF. Whereas the ECMWF is
slower in its progression yielding more precipitation, and given the
typical slowing trend for these large-scale systems, this solution
looks more favorable. Temperatures on Sunday will be fairly
persistent from Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, and
lows overnight in the upper 20s to mid 30s in the valleys.

By Monday, the main weekend storm finally is able to move eastward
as steering flow aloft increases. The upper-level trough associated
with this unsettled weather will slowly begin to traverse across
Canada with high pressure building in behind across the northern
Plains. A cold front will pass through the region Monday morning
with some back-end snow showers possible as temperatures Monday
morning hover near freezing. Behind the front, temperatures look to
remain below average for the start of the work week as a broad area
of high pressure builds in across the eastern third of the country
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Precipitation is beginning to overspread
the area this evening as SLK, MSS, and PTD report snow.
Precipitation in the form of snow, rain, and/or freezing rain
will start at all terminals over the next few hours, reducing
visibilities to 1-4 miles for most, and conditions may be up
and down for a while. Most likely sites to have IFR visibilities
in the next 6 hours will be SLK, PBG, and MSS. Lowering
ceilings are also associated with this incoming precip, with all
sites expected to reach ceilings 2000-3000 feet above ground
level by about 02Z-06Z Thursday. Southerly winds (except at MSS
where typical northwesterly winds prevail) will continue for
most over the next 24 hours, gusting on and off as high as 35-40
knots. LLWS will continue to be a concern starting 02Z-07Z and
continuing throughout the next 24 hours. Ceilings will remain as
low as 3000 feet or lower for most sites through about 20Z-22Z,
and there is the potential for some transient 900 feet or lower
cigs for several sites between 12Z and 20Z.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Saturday: MVFR. Definite RA, Slight chance FZRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
RA.
Sunday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ001-002-
     005.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for VTZ003-
     004-006>008-010-018>021.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ026>031-
     034-035-087.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Storm




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Caribou ME

 916 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will approach later tonight, then lift toward the
Downeast region Thursday. An occluded front crosses the
region Thursday night into Friday. Low pressure will approach
Saturday, then cross the region Sunday. Another low will
approach Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9:12 PM Update...High clouds have spread across most of the
region. Northern areas have cooled more quickly than southern
areas due to thinner cloud cover over the north. Slowed down
the advance of the snow with the HRRR showing a slightly slower
advance likely due to the very dry air currently in place.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

Previous discussion... No changes to the Winter Weather
Advisories. High pressure will exit across the Maritimes
tonight. At the same time, low pressure lifting toward the
northern Great Lakes will draw a warm front toward New England.
The low will track northeast across Quebec province Thursday,
drawing the warm front toward the Downeast region. Retreating
high pressure will help establish low level cold air damming
across the region. At the same time, temperatures will steadily
warm aloft. With increasing isentropic lift, overunning
precipitation will expand northeast across the region overnight.
Based on critical thicknesses, expect precipitation overnight
mostly in the form of snow. However, the snow could begin to
transition to a wintry mix across southwest portions of the
forecast area late. The low level cold air will gradually be
eroded, from southwest to northeast, across the region Thursday
with warming temperatures aloft. This will allow snow to
transition to a wintry mix and eventually rain, from southwest
to northeast, across the forecast area Thursday. The wintry mix
will hold on longest across northeast portions of the forecast
area. Generally expect total snow and sleet accumulations
through Thursday to range from 2 to 4 inches, with up to around
a tenth of an inch of ice. Locally greater snow, sleet and ice
accumulations are possible across central portions of the region
along with the western highlands. Low temperatures tonight will
occur during the early morning hours then begin to slowly warm
overnight. Low temperatures will range from around 20 to the
lower 20s north, to the mid to upper 20s Downeast. High
temperatures will occur late Thursday. High temperatures will
range from the mid 30s to around 40 north, to the lower 40s
Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weakening low over Quebec will transfer its energy over to the
Canadian Maritimes during Thursday night. This will result in a
few more showers north of Katahdin during the night. Given warm
thermal profiles, most of these showers will be in the form of
rain. Though it will be dry near Bangor and Downeast, there will
be enough low-level moisture around for some patchy fog there.
Low temperatures Thursday night will be in the mid to upper 30s
from the Central Highlands northward. The Bangor region and
Downeast will see lows in the lower 40s.

High pressure will move eastward from the Midwest on Friday,
while low pressure strengthens near Labrador. This will result
in significant cold air advection on Friday aloft. The cold air
advection will be accompanied by breezy northwesterly winds
across the area. Thus, went a bit above NBM guidance for winds
on Friday. Also cannot rule out an isolated rain or snow shower
during the day Friday in the Crown of Maine. High temperatures
will only rise a few degrees on Friday from the Central
Highlands northward. Downsloping winds will allow a bit more
warming for Bangor and Downeast, with upper 40s for highs.

High pressure builds in closer to the area Friday night.
However, winds will take some time to diminish during the night.
Hence, full decoupling is not expected Friday night. That said,
decided to undercut NBM guidance for low temperatures somewhat.
Most places will see lows in the 20s.

A low pressure system will track into Quebec on Saturday, dragging
a warm front towards Maine. Warm air advection precipitation
will begin in southwestern portions of the area mid to late
afternoon. Initially, there may be enough boundary layer warmth
for p-type to start as light rain or a rain/snow mix.
Nevertheless, thermal profiles are cold enough that p-type will
become snow once steadier precipitation arrives. Northeastern
areas will likely remain dry until sunset or perhaps just after.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Snow with the aforementioned low pressure system will overspread
the entire region Saturday evening. Enough warm air will work in
to Bangor and Downeast during Saturday evening to cause snow to
mix with then change to rain. Snow will change to a wintry mix
from the Central Highlands northward late Saturday night.
Soundings indicate a period of sleet, then freezing rain is
likely. A couple of inches of snow and sleet could accumulate,
along with light icing, for central and northern areas. Snow
accumulations in the Bangor region and Downeast are expected to
be minimal at this time.

Steady precipitation is forecast to exit northern areas Sunday
morning. With the lightening of precipitation and daytime
warming, any leftover precipitation will change to plain rain.
Colder air works back into the area from northwest to southeast
Sunday night. Some models and ensembles show a second wave of
low pressure tracking through the Gulf of Maine during that
time. This could bring light snow to the Central Highlands and
North, and a light rain/snow mix for Bangor and Downeast.

Forecast confidence is low for late Tuesday into Wednesday of
next week. The 12z GFS and CMC models show a strengthening low
pressure system in the Gulf of Maine, tracking towards the Bay
of Fundy. These solutions would bring a substantial snowstorm to
much of Northern and Eastern Maine. The 12z ECMWF has the
system, but much weaker and further south. This would only bring
some light snowfall to the Bangor and Downeast regions Tuesday
night. Ensemble members show a significant spread regarding
accumulations at this time. Will continue to monitor and update
this part of the forecast as it gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through early morning. MVFR/IFR conditions then
develop late with developing snow. IFR/LIFR Thursday with snow
transitioning to a wintry mix and eventually rain, from
southwest to northeast, across the region. Variable winds 5 to
10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25
knots overnight. South/southeast winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts
25 to 30 knots Thursday. Southerly low level wind shear
develops Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday night...IFR/LIFR conditions early with -SHRA North and
BCFG Downeast. Improving to MVFR/VFR late. Rain tapering to
showers by nighttime. Patchy fog at southern terminals possible.
Winds S at 5-10 kts, becoming W by daybreak.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Brief MVFR possible at Aroostook terminals
with VCSH and low stratus. Winds NW 10-15 kts, gusting 20-25
kts.

Friday Night...VFR. Winds NW 10-15 kts early, light N winds
late.

Saturday...VFR in the AM. Trending to MVFR in the PM with -SHSNRA.
IFR possible late at BGR. Light N winds AM. Winds SE 5-10 kts
PM.

Saturday Night...Mainly IFR or lower. -SN early, changing to -RA at
BGR and Downeast, and a mix North. Winds SE 5-10 kts, gusting
15-20 kts.

Sunday...Mainly MVFR/IFR with -SHRA. Some -SHSN possible at
Aroostook Terminals in the AM. SE wind 5-10kts becoming SW late.

Sunday Night-Monday...Mainly MVFR. IFR possible Sunday night
with -SN or -RA. Winds NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the
waters late tonight through Thursday. A few wind gusts could
approach gale levels Thursday. Snow developing tonight. An early
wintry mix changing to rain Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will be above Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Thursday night. Conditions subside below SCA
levels Friday morning on the intra-coastal waters. Winds and
seas remain at borderline SCA criteria through the day Friday on
the outer waters, before subsiding Friday evening. Conditions
will be sub-SCA for Friday night and through Saturday. Winds and
seas build back above SCA criteria Saturday night into Sunday.
Winds diminish below SCA levels Sunday night, but seas remain
close to SCA levels through Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for
     MEZ001-002-005-006.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for
     MEZ003-004-010-011-031-032.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to noon EDT Thursday for
     MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...Norcross/Clark
Marine...Norcross/Clark




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service State College PA

 1051 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift into Pennsylvania tonight as low
pressure tracks west of Pennsylvania through the Great Lakes. A
trailing cold front will push through Central Pennsylvania late
Thursday, then stall out out of just south of the region late
this week. A wave on the stalled front is likely to lift up the
Ohio Valley and across Pennsylvania this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Seeing a lull in rainfall across the area tonight with a weak
upper ridge over PA and a surface trough now north of the PA/NY
border. South-southeast winds have really picked up over the
last few hours as a deep surface low moves into the Ohio Valley.
Expect winds to stay gusty overnight and through the day
tomorrow as a tight surface pressure gradient and 60-70kt low-
level jet traverses the region tonight. Later tonight, an upper
trough will enhance lift over the NW as a surface warm front
continues to approach southwest PA. The warm front will still
be wrapped around the western and southern borders of the CWA in
the morning with cold air wedged east of the mountains. A
potent line of storms will trek across Indiana and Ohio tonight
before moving into western PA before sunrise. That line of
storms will weaken with eastward extent, but some hail and
damaging wind gusts are possible west of I-99 and in the
northwest mountains before the storms weaken.

Stability remains high over the east while a surge of deep
moisture will roll in overhead overnight. Persistent southeast
flow should result in lots of low clouds and fog blanketing the
ridges tonight. Some patchy DZ is also expected. Temps rise
after midnight, hitting the 50s almost everywhere and near 60F
in the Laurels at sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The low pressure center with this storm will be around the srn
tip of James Bay in mid-day, with a trailing cold front pushing
into the NW in late AM (before noon). The showers/storms in the
morning could still pack a punch, but the prob for SVR wind/hail
is low. The low crud over the east will start to clear out, but
likely be stubborn to leave. The stability will again thwart the
chc for deep convection for much of the area during the daylight
hours. However, the disorganized look to the convection in the
aftn on the HREF guidance may be because of the wide spread in
the members on where and when to pop convection and when the
front moves in/thru. Will keep mentions of SHRA and TSRA in the
forecast for all day in the south, but the nrn tier should
stabilize as the front presses south in the aftn. A large cap is
evident over the srn tier in the aftn up around 7-8kft, so
it`ll have to be strong forcing to overcome it. The front could
do it.

Highest PoPs will come later Thursday night after the cold
front has pushed into MD and perhaps into nrn VA. The
overrunning will also have good/steep lapse rates and
instability aloft over our srn tier. SPC SLGT risk SVR on Day2
is still painted over our srn half, probably more so for the
daylight hours Thurs than the late night (early Fri AM). But,
the cap and initial stability at the sfc are two negatives.
Could be a similar situation to what we experienced earlier this
week as storms failed to intensify anywhere except the far
southern tier of PA.

Temps will get into the 70s for many places on Thursday, as 8H
temps get into the mid teens C in the morning, even if they
slide a little in the aftn. Clouds will hinder temperatures
somewhat, but a gusty southwest wind should be effective at
helping temperatures rebound well on Thursday afternoon.  A big
range will be found for mins Thurs night, near 40F N and upper
50s SE.

Latest EPS/GEFS indicate cooler and drier weather is likely
Friday/Friday night across most of CPA as sfc high pressure
migrates eastward from the Great Lakes through northern New
England. The most likely area for rain on Friday is over the
southern tier of CPA particularly the southwest mtns/Laurel
Highlands on the eastern edge of the deep moisture plume
extending eastward from the Ohio Valley and in close proximity
to the wavy/pivoting q-stnry frontal zone near or just south of
the MD line. Highs on Friday will generally be in the mid 50s to
mid 60s with cloudy skies south and perhaps a few breaks in the
clouds across the northern tier.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Waves of low pressure riding east/northeast along the stalled
to lifting frontal boundary will result in periods of soaking
rainfall (with some embedded convective elements) this weekend.
Latest WPC/NBM QPF fcst projects the heaviest rain (0.50-1.50")
over the western and northern Alleghenies with <=0.50" across
the south central ridges into the lower Susquehanna Valley
(where it is needed the most).

There is a broad consensus among the medium range operational
and ensemble guidance that the primary cold front slides to the
east of the area early next week as a strong surface high moves
into the Central US and finally puts an end to the onslaught of
rain across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. After the cold
front sweeps through, anomalous upper level troughing will
build into the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast states next
Monday- Wednesday. This pattern will be accompanied by high
confidence in below normal temperatures and blustery
conditions. The colder cyclonic/NW flow should also favor
scattered rain/snow showers downwind of Lake Erie over the
Allegheny Plateau.

There are some long range model signals that suggest upper level
troughing will reload (with potential for a closed low to move
deep into the southeast US) into the second half of next week.
This pattern would favor a continuation of temps below the
historical average for the second week of April. There may also
be an opportunity for frost/freeze conditions as the spring
growing season gets underway in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A few rain showers continue to linger across the area as of the
beginning of the 00Z TAF package. These showers should move out
of the region within the next few hours. The resulting south-
southeasterly flow will lead to increasing low- level moisture
over much of Central PA. This will cause MVFR ceilings to
develop almost everywhere tonight, with the potential exception
of JST. RAP model soundings suggest that the low clouds would
make it there, but the GLAMP and HREF show a less than 40%
chance of MVFR ceilings developing. Given the uncertainty at
that site we kept site borderline VFR overnight.

The other concern tonight will be LLWS as a 45 to 55 knot low-
level jet moves in and surface wind gusts decrease. BFD will be
the first airfield to see wind shear develop and the threat will
spread southeastward through the late evening. The potential
for LLWS will reach MDT and LNS in the 06-08Z timeframe.

A decaying line of convection will reach the central PA area
during the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning. Instability will be
limited the further east these storms move, however sites in the
west such as JST/AOO/BFD could see damaging wind gusts and
rumbles of thunder. As these storms reach eastern PA by late
morning they`ll likely be light or nothing more than drizzle.
Reductions in visibility will still be possible over MDT and
LNS. Latest HREF shows a break in precipitation before another
round of convection initiates across the southern half of PA
with the passage of the cold front. Guidance still is showing a
wide spread of solutions as to the exact timing convection will
initiate come Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thu...MVFR poss in widespread rain showers. TSRA poss, mainly S.
CFROPA aftn/eve.

Fri...MVFR cigs and visby expected, mainly S.

Sat...Widespread showers; impacts likely.

Sun...Widespread showers; impacts likely.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...Bowen




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

 525 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-normal temperatures are expected today amidst downsloping
  westerly winds.

- First opportunity for precipitation arrives Thursday morning
  from the south, but the northward extent of rainfall is in
  question.

- Peak precipitation probability, and expected QPF, is still
  anticipated Friday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Midday water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
reveal a large longwave trough encompasses all areas west of the
Mississippi River, with a few embedded shortwaves emanating
through the flow. At the surface, weak high pressure is building
into the central plains in the wake of last night`s cold frontal
passage, which will facilitate a weakening of the winds through
the remainder of the day. Despite this, downsloping component of
the winds will support afternoon high warming into the low/mid
60s for most, while the far southeast zones/Red Hills approach
the low 70s. Overnight, winds will remain light and variable as
cloud cover advances northward ahead of a weak 500-mb shortwave
trough ejecting toward the central plains, with Thursday morning
lows ranging from the low 30s northwest to the mid 40s
southeast.

Early Thursday morning, high resolution short range guidance
indicates light rain will spread poleward into southwest KS
courtesy of theta-e advection and the aforementioned 500-mb
shortwave impulse, and continue into the early afternoon.
However, CAMs are not in agreement regarding its northward
extent. The 3-km NAM is much more bullish suggesting nearly all
zones will benefit, while the pessimistic HRRR resolves next to
nothing outside of the far southeast zones, and the NSSL-
WRF/WRF-ARW somewhere in between. Suffice to say, confidence is
low in how widespread the rainfall will be. Otherwise, skies
will be mostly cloudy for much of the area, save for the far
southwest zones, and afternoon high will range from the upper
50s northeast to the mid 60s southwest.

The good news is a considerably more robust opportunity for
precipitation remains apparent Friday through Saturday as the
large, upper level longwave trough axis slowly inches eastward
and emerges onto the High Plains. According to the NBM, the peak
of the event in terms of probability of precipitation will be
Friday afternoon into the early Saturday morning hours as pops
are in the definite category (75-100%) for all zones.
Unfortunately, medium range ensembles have trended down a bit
regarding total QPF as the GEFS and ECMWF EPS are now suggesting
0.3-0.8" of QPF across southwest KS. This is reflected in NBM
probability of QPF > 0.5" in the 50-80% range for all areas.
Additionally, precipitation may switch to snow on Saturday,
especially across the northwest zones, as a stronger cold
airmass reaches the central plains on the tail end of the
precipitation event, however little to no winter impacts are
expected at this time. Beyond Saturday, ensembles agree upper
level ridging will build over the western CONUS, which would
promote as dry, warming trend across southwest KS through the
end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

There will be some mid level clouds tonight that will erode. VFR is
still expected. W to NW winds 5-15 kt expected tonight. A weather
disturbance will move in from the south with shra/vcsh expected across
the terminals. Cigs may go down to MVFR in this activity. SE winds
will increase 15-25 kt during the day.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Sugden




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO

 645 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The pattern remains active with daily chances for rain through
  Monday

- Rain/snow mix possible Saturday night into Sunday morning

- Near-freezing morning temperatures expected Sunday through
  Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A surface front that brought us a few rounds of significant severe
weather last night and this morning will continue its track to the
east. Westerly winds on the backside of the front will allow us to
warm up to the 60s-70s. The associated surface low to north over IA
has yielded a strengthened pressure gradient resulting in breezy
conditions expected to last through the evening. The HRRR hints at
possible spotty, elevated showers north of I-70 after sunset,
however decided to leave the forecast dry due to low confidence.

A mid to upper level trough in the western US will keep our flow
aloft out of the southwest. Multiple shortwaves are expected to
eject out of this system giving us multiple chances for rain through
Monday. Thursday evening a surface low tracks out of TX to the
northeast towards the area resulting in a chance for showers across
the area with the brunt of the precipitation staying south of I-70.
Weak CAPE and stable lapse rates suggest thunderstorms are less
likely. Strong bulk shear values ranging from 60-80 kts suggest any
potential convective development may be sheared apart resulting in
rather pulsey, short-lived convection. Showers are expected to move
out of the area early Friday morning. Another wave moves through
Friday afternoon resulting in another round of precipitation.
Thunderstorms again do not look promising even for the afternoon
given the weak thermodynamic profiles.

A surface high to the northwest begins to usher in a cold air mass
early Saturday morning as winds shift to the north. This will result
in near or just below freezing low temperatures Sunday through
Tuesday mornings. Another wave moves through giving us a potential
for a light rain/snow mix early Sunday morning. The NBM gives a 15%-
30% chance for a tenth of an inch of snow mainly for western MO.
Chances reduce to 15% when the accumulations are raised to half an
inch. Better chances for accumulations look to remain farther west
over central and eastern KS. The mid to upper level trough finally
rejoins the flow with the help of a ridge on Sunday. Even though
this wave moves out, another trough to the northeast delivers
rain/snow chances again, but deterministic models keep precip just
to the northeast of the area for Monday. The next chance for precip
comes Wednesday with a dry second half of the week following after
as mid to upper level ridging builds into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

After gusty conditions this afternoon and early evening, lighter
winds will prevail for this TAF period. Wind will ease
around/under 5 kts overnight, going variable at times, while
winds shift northerly and eventually southeasterly by tomorrow
afternoon. Periods of BKN/OVC cloud cover throughout, including
lowering by the end of the period, but VFR should prevail.
Just beyond this TAF period, MVFR ceilings may sneak in from
the south, especially for the southern two if not three TAF
sites KIXD/KMKC/KMCI.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Curtis




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

 1034 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance of thunderstorms through early this evening. A
  few strong storms capable of producing small hail and gusty
  winds are possible, mainly in parts of central and east-central
  Wisconsin.

- Rainfall and runoff will likely lead to rises on area rivers,
  which may lead to minor flooding at a few locations late this
  week.

- The active weather pattern will abate once this system departs by
  Thursday morning across northeast Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Short Term...Tonight...Thursday...and Thursday Night

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low
pressure lifting northeast over northern Iowa early this
afternoon. A warm front extends southeast from the low across
central Illinois and Indiana. As the dry slot advances into
southwest Wisconsin, widespread precipitation has exited across
the northeast part of the state. Additional shower activity over
western Wisconsin will likely move into north-central WI where
temperatures in the low to middle 30s. This precip will likely
bring a rain snow mix for the rest of the day. Other widely
scattered showers could pop up at any time as well.

Further south, concern shifts to thunderstorm potential as
elevated instability lifts north into Wisconsin. Thunderstorm
activity has been confined to south of areas from Madison and
Milwaukee so far today. Short range models have backed off on
lifting most unstable capes upwards of 800 j/kg like they were
showing yesterday. Instead, convective allowing models support
most unstable capes around 200-300 j/kg which may be good for
isolated storms late this afternoon into early this evening (from
about 3-8 pm). While storms could produce small hail, the threat
of severe storms is very low.

As low pressure traverses the region, focus of this forecast then
turns to small precip chances along with gusty winds for the rest
of tonight into Thursday.

Precipitation trends tonight: Low pressure will travel from west-
central Wisconsin at 7 pm to western Lake Superior shortly after
midnight. Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will
rapidly lift to the northeast across north-central and northeast
Wisconsin this evening. Then light snow will wrap around the
cyclone and return to north-central WI after midnight into
Thursday morning. A dusting of snow will be possible before the
snow showers come to an end by midday Thursday.

Gusty winds: Cold advection moves into the region after midnight
via west winds. Low level lapse rates will take some time to
steepen, so think gusts from 20-30 mph will be possible late
tonight. But both the RAP and the HRRR indicate that there will be
a period of gusty winds 30-40 mph on Thursday morning with help
from surface heating. This gustiness should diminish on Thursday
afternoon, leading up to winds becoming calm on Thursday night.

Temperatures: Near normal on Thursday with highs ranging from the
lower to middle 40s at most locations. With better radiational
cooling conditions, temps to fall into the lower 20s to lower 30s
on Thursday night.

Long Term...Friday Through Wednesday

A quieter pattern is in store for northern Wisconsin over the next
week. A northern stream trough will amplify and dig across the
western Great Lakes this weekend. While this trough will focus the
storm track over the Ohio Valley, light rain and and snow will be
possible at times from Saturday through Monday. Minor
accumulations will be possible, particularly at night. The highest
chances for minor accumulations will be on Friday night and also
Sunday night into Monday.

Thereafter, polar high pressure will build into the region on
Monday and Tuesday before departing on Wednesday. As the high
departs, warmer air will gradually push back into the region.
Monday and Tuesday look to be the coolest days over the next week
(besides today) with highs ranging from the lower 30s to middle
40s.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Poor flying conditions will continue late this evening and into
early Thursday (mainly LIFR/IFR/MVFR) as low pressure lifts
northeast across the region. Some drizzle and fog (locally dense)
will end late this evening a cold front moves through, with some
lighter snow showers possible over north central WI overnight into
Thursday morning. A few spots over the far south could remain VFR
for a time late this evening, but this looks to be short-lived as
clouds will spread back into or redevelop in any areas of
clearing. Some improvement to ceilings are expected on Thursday,
especially in the later morning and afternoon. East to southeast
winds will continue to shift to the west overnight and become
gusty, with gusts to 30-35 kts into Thursday morning. Winds will
decrease Thursday afternoon.

Strong winds aloft will continue to produce LLWS into tonight,
especially when winds at the surface die off a little. The LLWS
threat will end Thursday morning.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....MPC/MPC
AVIATION.......Bersch




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Indianapolis IN

 912 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather likely late today and this evening into the early
  overnight. Tornadoes, widespread damaging winds are likely with
  large hail and flash flooding possible as well

- Flood Watch this evening through Sunday morning with 4 rounds of
  moderate to heavy rain and total rainfall potentially as high as 6-9
  inches

- Wind Advisory through 1 am tonight with wind gusts to 50 mph
  expected

- Widespread, significant river flooding expected late week into
  next week.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

High confidence for storms the next several hours as the convective
complex across Central Indiana currently stretches from west of
Lebanon to western Hendricks county and to points southwest near
Linton and Vincennes. HRRR suggest this line of storms will make
steady progress eastward across Central Indiana through the next 2-3
hours, exiting Indiana by 100AM. Strong low level jet remains in
place ahead of the line feeding the storms. Thus severe storms will
continue to be expected through the early morning hours as the
storms depart. Some storms may have the capability of producing 70-
80 mph winds.

Overnight, after 200am, dry weather will return as high pressure
builds across Indiana from the west. High clouds will lead to just
partly cloudy skies with westerly winds.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Weak echoes on KVWX from near Vincennes south-southwestward to near
Paducah, Kentucky, appear to be a shallow convective process within
a deep/moist (but capped) PBL, per model soundings. Some glaciation
is seen in Day Cloud Phase RGB satellite imagery, but small anvils
are orphaned quickly. Large scale ascent is minimal for this to
change in the short term, thus capping should continue to suppress
deeper more organized convection for the next few hours, at least
for central Indiana.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A strong mid-latitude cyclone is taking shape over the Midwest
currently, with a broad warm sector setting up across Indiana. The
system`s warm front passed through early this morning with a round
of elevated convection. Winds are now out of the south and
temperatures have climbed into the low 70s as of 1pm, dew points are
near 60F. Continued warm moist advection is expected as we head into
the afternoon hours.

Given the strength of the mid-latitude cyclone, a tight MSLP
gradient has become established over Indiana. Very gusty gradient
winds are developing with gusts already to 45mph at IND, and up to
52mph near Vincennes. High-resolution guidance suggests continued
gusts 45 to 55 mph are likely at times this afternoon.

These strong southerly winds will allow moisture to advect
northward, setting the stage for our convective threat later this
afternoon and evening.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND HAZARDS

Thunderstorms are ongoing along a cold front across Illinois and
Missouri as of this writing, with eastward propagation expected
through the afternoon hours. Ahead of the line, strong southerly
flow is promoting rapid moisture advection which will help
destabilize the atmosphere, especially in the lower levels. Thick
cirrus from the upstream convection could limit diurnal heating
somewhat...but instability from advection alone will likely be more
than enough to compensate.

Our primary hazard will depend on storm mode, which is a bit tricky
today. Shear vectors are roughly parallel with the initiating
boundary, in this case the system`s cold front...so a linear mode is
preferred. However, there may be enough forcing to overcome weak CIN
within the open warm sector to promote a few discrete cells near and
just ahead of the front / ongoing line of storms.

Model soundings show steep lapse rates with moisture through the
column. Additionally, long curved hodographs indicate large amounts
of wind shear especially in the lower levels. Should a discrete cell
form then it could easily become a supercell with all hazards
possible, including tornadoes and large hail. Tornado potential will
depend on the quality of low-level moisture and near-ground lapse
rates. That being said, mesoscale trends will need to be monitored
very closely as the event unfolds.

As mentioned above, our most likely storm mode will be linear. In
this case, strong damaging winds, potentially significant (over
75mph), are the most likely hazard. A QLCS tornado or two is
possible as well, especially within line breaks, due to the large
amounts of low-level shear present. It is also possible that a mixed
mode occurs where we begin with a few discrete cells before upscale
growth transitions everything into a line.

Lastly, flash flooding is possible as some storm training is
possible. Some of the higher-resolution model runs are depicting 2-4
inches of rain in isolated swaths.

THURSDAY

The cold front mentioned above looks to cross the state during the
night tonight, settling across the Ohio River by around sunrise.
North of the front, cooler temperatures and diminished winds are
expected.

Zooming back out a bit, guidance is showing a deepening trough over
the Rockies with a subtle wave ejecting eastward early Thursday.
This wave then rides the front allowing it to lift northward a bit.
Showers and thunderstorms expand in coverage through the day as
lifting arrives ahead of the wave.

Our flooding threat increases substantially later Thursday and into
the weekend. Though Thursday`s risk depends on how much rain we see
across the region today. More details in the long range discussion
below.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE...

High confidences concerns for significant flooding across the Ohio
Valley as multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall will impact
the region into Sunday. The frontal boundary that will pass through
the forecast area tonight will becomes quasi-stationary across the
Ohio Valley on Thursday. A highly amplified and blocky upper level
pattern across the country anchored by a deep trough over the
Intermountain West and a strong ridge off the southeast US coast
will place the Ohio Valley within deep southwest flow that will draw
a rich fetch of moisture from both the equatorial Pacific and the
Gulf. Additionally the sharp baroclinic zone that will align north
of the stagnant frontal boundary will further promote strong lift
and convergence with a strong upper jet supporting divergence aloft.
This setup is historically supportive of a prolonged risk for heavy
rainfall and flooding for the Ohio Valley and central Indiana.

Thursday Night through Sunday

The second wave of heavier rainfall and storms for Thursday night
(with tonight being the first) has trended further north into the
forecast area with recent model runs as the boundary is likely to
become nearly stationary just south of the Ohio River. Rain showers
will return as north as early as Thursday afternoon but the
widespread heavier rainfall rates will focus Thursday night. A
strong mid level deformation axis north of the surface front will
lend its weight to enhancing rainfall across the forecast area with
growing confidence in a widespread 1 to 2 inches by Friday morning.
In addition to the rainfall received later today and tonight...these
amounts will lead to exacerbating flooding concerns while only
serving to magnify the impacts from the third and fourth waves of
heavier rainfall set to impact the region Friday night through early
Sunday.

Rainfall coverage will briefly diminish on Friday morning leaving
cloudy skies and a cool...damp easterly flow across much of central
Indiana. The front will shift further north into the region Friday
afternoon with the third wave of rainfall poised to arrive late day
into Friday night as surface waves ride along the boundary. Precip
efficiency levels should be excellent as deep convergence up through
700mb aligns with the axis of highest precip water values above the
climatological max and near 300% of normal for early April. This
will support widespread heavy rainfall over the entire forecast area
all night and into Saturday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches look likely.

Rainfall coverage and rates may diminish briefly again Saturday
morning before the arrival of a stronger surface wave into the
region by late Saturday triggers the fourth and final wave of
rainfall into the Ohio Valley for Saturday afternoon and night with
the frontal boundary shifting back to the southeast of the region as
the night progresses. Despite slightly lower PWAT values...low level
profiles remain ideal for heavy...efficient rainfall to impact the
forecast area for several hours before transitioning to lighter and
more scattered rain late Saturday night as the trailing upper level
trough moves in from the west. Flooding concerns will be maximized
by Friday night and Saturday as even a small amount of rain is
likely to initiate or worsen ongoing flooding.

Temperatures may struggle to climb out of the 40s on Sunday with a
stiff northerly wind and periodic light showers and maybe a
few snowflakes making for a miserable end to the weekend.

Rainfall Amounts and Flooding

To reiterate the four primary waves of rainfall will come...

- This Evening/Early Overnight
- Thursday Night
- Friday Late Day/Friday Night
- Saturday Afternoon/Night

Widespread rainfall amount of 4 to 7 inches are likely across the
forecast area later today through Sunday with highest amounts south.
The potential for up to 8-9 inches may sneak up into far southern
portions of the forecast area as well. These rainfall amounts will
produce significant flooding...especially along rivers...creeks and
streams and within poor drainage areas. High confidence exists that
the heavy rainfall anticipated through Sunday could be one of the
highest impact flooding events for central Indiana over the last 15
years.

A reminder that the Flood Watch will go into effect for the entire
forecast area at 00Z tonight and run through 12Z Sunday and now
covers all of central Indiana.

Monday through Wednesday

Other than a small threat for a few light areas of precipitation
Monday into Tuesday...the pattern will shift to a cooler and drier
regime that likely extends out for much of next week as deep
troughing develops across the eastern part of the country. Highs by
Monday and Tuesday will only range from the mid 40s to mid 50s with
those temperatures persisting out through later next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 605 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Impacts:

- Thunderstorms this evening. Some Severe.

- Southwest wind gusts 40 to 45 knots this evening. Severe
gusts in excess of 55 Knts with storms.

- MVFR and worse conditions possible at times and especially in
  thunderstorms

- Rain returns Thursday evening

Discussion:

Radar shows a strong squall line stretching from NE IL across
Central IL to SE MO and Arkansas. HRRR suggests this line of storms
will push across Central Indiana within the 00Z-05Z time frame.
Ahead of the line VFR Conditions with strong gusts to 40 knts will
be possible.

As the line passes severe gusts, heavy rain and MVFR or worse cigs
will be possible.

The line will exit overnight leading to a quick return to VFR after
06Z. Here, forecast soundings show drying and subsidence within the
column in the wake of the convective line as surface high pressure
builds across the area from the plains states.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.

Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...BRB
UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Puma




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

National Weather Service Jackson KY

 920 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- At least northwest parts of eastern Kentucky are favored to see
  another round of strong to severe storms tonight, with better
  chances over most if not all of eastern Kentucky on Thursday
  into Thursday night.

- We are looking for repeated rounds of heavy rain and
  thunderstorms to affect eastern Kentucky through Sunday -
  especially northwest parts of the forecast area where between 3
  and 6 inches of rain will be possible over those several days.
  This area remains in a Flood Watch from this evening through
  Sunday morning.

- Temperatures will be warmer than normal into the weekend
  followed by a sharp cool down to start the new work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025

00Z sfc analysis shows a dynamic area of low pressure over the
Upper Midwest with a cold front/squall line working its way east
to the edge of western Kentucky. This is bringing an incredible
amount of tornado warnings and severe thunderstorms to that part
of the area which SPC has outlooked with a rare High Risk
outlook. The northeast edge of this boundary is on track to enter
into this part of the state towards, or just after, midnight
likely weaker but still packing a punch mainly in the form of
high wind gusts. Have updated the forecast for this development
and timing based on the latest CAMs and radar extrapolation. Out
ahead of the main line of severe storms, some discrete cells have
been moving northeast out of central Tennessee this evening and
are also edging closer to the JKL CWA. There is currently a
tornado watch a couple of counties to the west of us to cover this
threat as well as the anticipated QLCS later tonight. We and SPC
will continue to monitor this evolution through the night for
possible additional eastern or northeastern convective watches.
For now, The air mass over much of eastern Kentucky has some
modest CAPE and a decent wind field but not much in the way of low
level turning, yet, as seen in the JKL VWP but we will still need
to closely watch any discrete cells that manage to develop.
Otherwise, temperatures currently are quite warm in the mid to
upper 70s through the area. Also, amid southerly winds of 10 to 15
mph and gusts to 30 mph, dewpoints have climbed into the lower
60s southwest and into the mid 50s in the east. In addition to
timing the convection into the overnight hours, have updated the
forecast to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky
grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs with
the dropping of the Wind Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 552 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025

Much warmer and more humid air arrived today on strong south to
southwest winds. This was brought about by a large and intense low
pressure system centered over IA this afternoon. Thunderstorms are
occurring from IL southwest through AR, ahead of the system`s cold
front. With strong shear profiles in place, many are severe. The
thunderstorms should eventually progress into the JKL forecast
area from the northwest overnight as a line. They will be
outrunning the stronger instability to our west, and our remaining
instability will be waning during the night. However, being that
an organized line is expected and winds aloft will remain strong,
there is still a severe wx threat here, mainly for damaging wind.
What`s left of the line should stall over our area on Thursday,
along with the weather system`s attendant frontal boundary. This
will be a focus for additional shower and thunderstorm
development. The extent and strength of development on Thursday
will be conditional on how much heating can occur in the wake of
the early convection, which leaves uncertainty in the forecast.
Models are then indicating nocturnal develop along and north of
the frontal boundary on Thursday night, running off of isentropic
lift. While flooding issues can`t be ruled out with activity
tonight into Thursday should training/repeating cells occur, much
of the first round of precip could go into saturating the ground
to set us up for later problems. In terms of later precip, the
NAM and GFS are most aggressive with nocturnal convection for
Thursday night, but focus it mainly to our north. The HRRR has
convection further south. With this said, there is not high
confidence in the outcome.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 515 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
surprisingly good agreement aloft through the bulk of the long
term forecast before some differences of note start to show up
concerning a late period trough dropping into the Ohio Valley from
the north. They all depict a deep Southwestern trough anchoring
the 5h pattern through the rest of the week only slowly grinding
east through Saturday while a strong ridge holds firm in the
Southeast. This continues to depict a stagnant pattern aloft for
most of the country into the first part of the weekend locking in
an extended period of fast southwest mid-level flow into Kentucky.
This will be able to scour ample moisture northeast from a wide
open western Gulf of America for a near continuous flux of
moisture into the region. Within the flow, several impulses of
concern will ride past eastern Kentucky. One of these, in a series
of them, passes through early Friday before another slides by to
the north that night into Saturday morning, while a third then
crosses towards that evening. By early Sunday, though, a
substantial portion of the Southwestern trough finally works
east into the Mid-Mississippi Valley helping to shove the blocking
Southeast ridge further away from Kentucky. This will allow the
pattern to start moving again for our area and also helps to pull
a large trough southward from eastern Canada sending 5h height
falls through this part of the state during the day, Sunday. Then,
with the pattern finally on the move, a stream of energy will
settle into the Ohio Valley and press south into the JKL CWA later
Monday. This energy swath lingers overhead through early Tuesday
before the large northern trough`s axis at 5h will finally sweep
east of the Ohio Valley - now faster and more dampened in the
ECMWF cluster compared to the GFS solutions. This change will turn
the mid-level flow more sharply to the northwest bringing a
pattern more conducive for drying and colder conditions.

The still rather small model spread aloft through Saturday
supported using the NBM as the starting point for the forecast
grids into the weekend then have decided to used it split the
difference between the still shifting cluster solutions of the
various long range model systems into the first part of next week.
Again made some adjustments mainly to add more terrain distinction
to the temperatures in the southeast parts of the area each night
through Saturday morning.

Sensible weather features a warm end to the week for most with
the models now depicting the concerning boundary lying across
northern parts of the JKL CWA to start the day, Friday. Model
consensus has this boundary shifting north on Friday as the next
sfc wave consolidates to the southwest of the state. This process
looks on track to spare much of eastern Kentucky the heavy rains
and stronger storms through the afternoon and into the night.
However, this boundary will start to return southeast later
Saturday with more strong to possibly severe storms arriving, for
at least northwest portions of the area by evening, while the
southeast looks to stay dry and very warm. The caveat through
Saturday evening is that while the models are in decent agreement
that the boundary stays west and north of the bulk of southeast
Kentucky, mesoscale dynamics and outflow boundaries could help to
push it further south than the models indicate so caution is
urged, especially in the Flood Watch areas. Eventually, this
system and the frontal structure push through the entire area
mainly Sunday morning with a final incident of heavy rain before
it departs. We will probably have to consider extending the Flood
Watch through the day Sunday if the ECMWF trends holds in having a
lingering sfc wave move along the front on Sunday and holding it
up by perhaps another 12 hours.

Sharply colder weather follows behind the system into Monday and
through the start of the next work week. This will bring an air
mass change on northerly winds. The coldest air is indicated to
arrive later Monday into Tuesday such that scattered frost and
some sub freezing temperatures are anticipated for Monday and
Tuesday night. The high pressure that moves into the area in the
wake of the weekend system will start to shift east on Wednesday
but serve to keep the weather dry and cool.

Despite the extremeness and climatological rareness of this
stalled pattern, most of eastern Kentucky is expected to miss out
of the higher impacts owing to the heaviest rains forecasted to
stay north of the headwaters of our rivers. Even so, we need to
stay vigilant for a possible shift southeast in the heavy rain
axis and not let our guard down. However, as it stands now, it
seems increasing likely that the western part of the state and
confluence region of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers will see the
historic impacts from the repeated heavy rains of such extreme
durations. Meanwhile many of us here, especially those outside of
the flood watch, will mostly note just an unseasonably warm
stretch of weather for early April interrupted occasionally by a
bout of mainly nocturnal showers and storms.

The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adjusting the PoPs for hourly temporal resolution. Did also
include more terrain distinction to the low temperatures through
Saturday morning and again for Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT WED APR 2 2025

The stronger south to southwesterly winds have subsided a bit
this evening but still are occasionally gusting to 25 kts or so.
Even as we head deeper into the night look for gusts topping 20
kts to still occur, especially over open terrain. In addition
winds will strengthen just off the sfc resulting in LLWS of up to
45 kts from the south southwest. Also, high sfc winds will be
possible in any storms later tonight into Thursday.

VFR conditions will persist through the evening before a line of
showers and thunderstorms likely move in from the northwest
overnight, but timing remains somewhat uncertain. There is a risk
for high winds with a weakening line of storms overnight. The
precipitation should bring MVFR conditions, at times, especially
Thursday morning or early afternoon. Won`t rule out some IFR
conditions, but confidence in timing and occurrence is too low to
include it in TAFs.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Sunday morning for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106>109-111-
112-114.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

 1203 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Keweenaw and
portions of the eastern UP for snow and a wintry mix into the
evening.

- Wind Advisories remain in effect for portions of the eastern UP
for afternoon wind gusts in excess of 45 mph.

- West gales 35 to 40 kts expected across central and eastern Lake
Superior early Thursday morning, diminishing through the evening as
high pressure builds in.

- Warming temperatures and high April sun angle will lead to rapidly
melting snow and ice during the daylight hours late this week into
early this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Afternoon RAP analysis has deep 990mb low pressure centered over IA,
with a surface warm front extending into WI. Aloft, robust 850mb WAA
persists across the Great Lakes, with a strong 50-60kt
south/southeast LLJ directed over the region. Much of the widespread
wintry precipitation has tapered off over the UP with a dry slot
nosing into the central and eastern portions of the area, but light
to occasionally moderate precipitation persist in the far western UP
and the Keweenaw. Additionally, another round of precipitation is
moving through NW WI and should track through the UP the rest of the
afternoon. While precipitation was initially falling mainly as snow,
the building warm nose aloft and surface temperatures riding to near
and just above freezing is supporting a changeover to a wintry mix
of rain, snow, and perhaps sleet/freezing rain. Any additional
snow/ice accumulations the next few hours should be light across
most of the UP, with snow totals generally below an inch and just a
glaze of ice. However, this could still lead to slick driving
conditions through the evening commute. The Keweenaw remains the
exception. There, temperatures stay cool enough for accumulating
snow and spotty freezing rain through the rest of the afternoon and
evening. With another 1-3in of snow and some patchy ice possible,
will allow the Winter Weather Advisory to continue. Will also allow
the advisory over southern Schoolcraft county to run its course the
rest of the afternoon with (albeit lighter) snow/wintry mix
persisting there while winds begin to increase.

While on the topic: southeast winds had been fairly benign most of
the afternoon, but are on the increase at this time. Gusts in excess
of 30mph have become common across the eastern UP, and soundings
continue to indicate that we could tap into 40+kt winds present
below the inversion. Stronger gusts are also expected across the
Keweenaw, particularly in the southeast downsloping areas nearer to
Lake Superior. With winds on the increase, the Wind Advisory remains
in effect across portions of the eastern UP.

As we head into the evening hours, the surface low continues to
track northeastward over far eastern MN and should be moving over
western Lake Superior/Upper Michigan around/after 00Z. Surface
temperatures rise above freezing from south to north, allowing for a
change over mainly to rain from around 21Z onwards. Rain slowly
wraps up the first half of the night, but as the low continues to
track northeastward over Superior and the cold front begins to track
through, expect slowly cooling temperatures and lake effect/enhanced
snow showers the second half of the night. Snow should be confined
to the westerly wind belts of the western UP. Additional snow totals
are expected to be light, below an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Come Thursday morning, ~990mb sfc low pressure will be continuing
its northeastward departure towards far southern James Bay, placing
the UP within the system`s dry slot, slowing or shutting off precip
altogether. Wrap around snow showers within the comma head region of
the low with a little lake enhancement from chilly WNW flow across
Lake Superior may linger through the early afternoon across the west
half, but little to no additional snow accumulations are expected.
Otherwise with strong pressure rises (10-15mb / 6hr) Thursday
afternoon, expect gusty W to WNW winds upwards of 30-40 mph during
the early afternoon hours, particularly in the Keweenaw where
ensemble members suggests max gust potential between 45-50 mph.
Winds should quickly retreat into the evening and moreso into Friday
as the pressure gradient slackens amidst incoming ridging and sfc
high pressure.

Finally, after a very busy March and active start to April, the
extended forecast looks rather "boring" with no major systems set to
impact Upper Michigan through at least the next 7 days. A cold front
passing across the Upper Great Lakes may kick off some weak lake
enhanced/effect showers Saturday and Sunday. Beyond this weekend a
building western US ridge forces downstream troughing in the NE US
and Canadian Maritimes, allowing chilly N/NW flow into the Great
Lakes early next week. LREF 850mb temps reach as low as -15C by
Monday, supporting a period of lake effect snow. Model guidance
begins to spread on the pattern through the midweek, however, there
are no signs of anything majorly impactful.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Abundant low level moisture will continue LIFR ceilings at all sites
overnight. Some improvement is expected by morning, with further
improvement to MVFR and then VFR through the day Thursday. Models
are handling fog at KSAW and KCMX poorly, but signals are present
for LIFR fog to develop and then continue at least through 8z when
the wind shift to the southwest. Westerly gusty winds will develop
later tonight and persist Thursday. Highest, upwards of 35 kts, are
expected at KCMX while 20-25kts are mostly expected at KSAW/KIWD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

East to southeast winds continue building this evening as a low
approaches from the Upper MS Valley. Gusts are expected to reach
high end Gale / Storm force (45-50 kts) across the north and east-
central lake close to the international border during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, waves will peak between
10-18ft. Once the sfc low pressure moves directly overhead the west-
central lake, winds will briefly weaken to 25-30 kts lakewide in the
early morning hours Thursday. As the low pulls to the northeast
early Thursday, winds to increase from the west coinciding strong
pressure rises. Westerly gales of 35-40 knots are expected along the
Keweenaw shorelines eastward across the east-central lake with waves
reaching 8-12 feet near Caribou and Michipicoten Islands.

As high pressure quickly builds in behind the departing low, expect
winds to begin dying down, weakening to 20 knots or less by the late
evening. Lighter winds continue through Friday and Saturday as high
pressure dominates the Upper Great Lakes and a shortwave low misses
us well to the south. However, we could see a return to northwest to
north-northwest winds of 20 to 25 knots late this weekend into early
next week as a cold front pushes through the region.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 2 PM EDT this
     afternoon for LSZ265.

  Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for
     LSZ241>244.

  Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ263-264.

  Gale Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 5 PM EDT this
     afternoon for LSZ266.

  Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon
     for LSZ267.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 2 PM EDT this
     afternoon for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...BW




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

 940 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Storms and rain will remain west of the region tonight for the
most part. Early tomorrow morning some showers may move into the
Plateau counties but confidence is low. Upped the cloud cover for
tonight. Obs are clear but high clouds can be seen on satellite
overhead and upstream. Lows will be mild in the 60s for the
Tennessee Valley due to cloud cover and continued WAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Key Messages:

1. Windy conditions will continue across the area through this
evening, especially the far east Tennessee mountains and
foothills through Thursday morning. Please refer to the High Wind
Warning and Wind Advisory Products.

2. Most of the area will remain dry but best chance of showers and
storms will be across the northern Plateau late tonight and
Thursday.

3. Near record to record high temperatures are likely across much
of the area for Thursday. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees
above normal.

Discussion:

Tight pressure gradient across the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians will continue to produce 850mb jet of 40-50 knots.
Gusts at Cove Mountain has peaked thus far at 69 mph with 64 mph
at Camp Creek. Strong and gusty winds will continue across the far
east Tennessee mountains and foothills through Thursday morning.
Winds across the valley will subside toward sunset.

Convection has not been allowed to develop given the mid-level
cap.

For tonight, a line of showers and thunderstorms will move across
Tennessee overnight into Thursday morning. HREF and HRRR suggest
this line may move into the northern Plateau toward daybreak. The
low-level moisture has been slow to erode across the Plateau and
southeast Tennessee. Overall expect partly to mostly cloudy sky
over the area overnight.

For Thursday, the mid-level cap will remain across much of the
area along with upper ridging. This will keep any chances of
convection limited at best and mainly across the Plateau counties.
The upper ridge and abnormally warm 850mb temperatures will
produce an unseasonably very warm day. Near record to record high
temperatures are anticipated.

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge
04-03   89(1999)       85(1946)       82(2012)       87(1963)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Key Messages:

1. Abnormally warm weather pattern continues Friday and Saturday,
with temperatures around 20 degrees above normal; record-breaking
highs are likely.

2. Showers and thunderstorms affect the area Sunday, with potential
for strong storms with heavy rainfall.

3. Much colder temperatures Monday through Wednesday, with lows near
to below freezing Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

Discussion:

Thursday night begins with strong ridging aloft centered over the SE
coast as well as surface high pressure over the western Atlantic.
The pattern will seemingly become locked as deep troughing dominates
the west and ridging over the east. This set up will stall the front
and storm system to our west and northwest, where the MS to OH
Valley regions are expecting 4 to 10 or so inches of rainfall over
the next 5 days. We will remain under the "high and dry" sector
until the pattern gets moving again and the system finally passes
over us this weekend. With really high heights and southerly flow,
high temperatures will max out around 20 degrees above normal with
readings in the upper 80s across the valley Friday and Saturday. 90
degrees may be possible somewhere. Our climate sites will ultimately
be flirting with breaking record highs or tying them.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge

04-04   88(1934)       87(1934)       83(2023)       84(1999)
04-05   89(2023)       89(2023)       86(2023)       88(2023)

By Saturday, troughing will start shifting our direction,
suppressing the SE ridge. There will essentially be a tight gradient
of precipitation to none at all, which will lie across our northern
Plateau counties and southwest Virginia; the best chance of seeing
any precipitation in the first day or so of the long term. By late
Saturday and into the early hours of Sunday, the mass precipitation
axis that essentially parks over the aforementioned regions in the
first paragraph, will finally reach us, bringing the possibility of
severe storms, and especially heavy rainfall. Latest totals from
Saturday night to early Monday, place many locations in the 2 inch
range. Currently, lesser amounts of below 2 inches for far NE TN and
SW VA. SPC Day 4 issued this morning, has the 15% chance of severe
enveloping our western half of the CWA, so will need to watch for
the potential of severe weather.

Following the front`s passing, the last couple days of the long term
will be night and day compared to the first half. Drastic height
falls under the trough, NW flow, and 850 temperatures dipping below
0C, will provide a couple days of below normal conditions,
especially the low temperatures anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday
morning. Wednesday may be the coldest with many values around or
below freezing. Heads up to those who may have planted sensitive
plants early. The long term also ends dry with ridging building in
behind the trough and surface high pressure aiming for the Mid-
Atlantic from Canada.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Windy conditions will continue overnight. If an inversion develops
near the surface, winds may go light near the surface but LLWS
will be present at 2k feet around 35 knots. More confidence in TRI
getting an inversion but could also happen at TYS and CHA in the
early morning hours. Some clearing of clouds is likely tomorrow
afternoon and winds will be similar to today from the south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             66  86  67  88 /  10   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  67  86  66  87 /  10  10  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  85  66  86 /  10  10  10  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              60  84  63  85 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for Johnson-Southeast
     Carter-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

     High Wind Warning until 11 AM EDT Thursday for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
     Southeast Greene.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
AVIATION...McD




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Nashville TN

 938 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 912 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- There is a level 4 out of 5 risk for severe storms tonight for
  many of our western counties with a level 3 out of 5 for
  Nashville Metro and surrounding areas. Storms are expected to
  begin moving in from the west late this evening, spreading
  across the northwest half of Middle Tennessee through the late
  night hours. Damaging winds, tornadoes, large hail, and
  torrential downpours will all be possible. Locations around and
  west of Linden, Waverly, Clarksville, and Dover are at greatest
  risk for strong, long track tornadoes late this evening.

- Major flooding may develop for northwest Middle Tennessee with
  torrential rainfall at times from this evening through Sunday
  morning. Stewart, Montgomery, and Houston Counties are at
  greatest risk with 10 inches of rainfall possible. Nashville
  Metro could have more than 6 inches of rain. Flash flooding and
  eventually river flooding will be concerns across the northwest
  half of Middle Tennessee where a Flood Watch is in place.

- There will be a continued risk for severe storms across the area
  Thursday through Saturday. The greatest risk will continue to be
  over the northwest half of Middle Tennessee with much lower
  storm chances over the southeast half. Damaging winds will be
  the main concern Thursday through Saturday, although tornadoes
  cannot be ruled out.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The evening sounding at OHX is well underway and we can share some
data already up to 400 mb. SBCAPE is 1,776 J/kg and the LI is -9
(hence the large hail that`s already occurred). The 0-3 km storm-
relative helicity is 408 owing to a 40 kt wind at 925 mb and 50 kt
wind at 850 mb, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is 7.2C/km.
Precipitable Water is coming in at 1.56", which is a new record
max for this date. So the environment we expected is definitely in
place. A cold front is just now crossing the Mississippi River,
and won`t make it much further before becoming quasi-stationary by
around 12Z tomorrow. The boundary likely won`t actually come
through Middle Tennessee until late Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 912 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The surface boundary that is creating all this mayhem tonight
continues to creep toward Middle Tennessee, but will soon stall
just to our northwest. Earlier discreet cells that produced large
hail and some wind damage across mainly western portions of
Middle Tennessee have either dissipated or moved out of the area,
and we are now watching the next line of severe storms track
across West Tennessee and toward the OHX warning area. Not much
has changed from our earlier messaging. We expect the approaching
storms to have their most significant impacts over western Middle
Tennessee, then weaken somewhat as they advance toward the
Nashville Metro Area. It is still conceivable that some portions
of the mid state may not be impacted at all tonight, especially
over southeastern portions of the mid state. As the severe threat
overnight diminishes, we will begin to transition to more of a
flooding threat. Granted, severe storms will still be possible
until the aforementioned boundary loosens from its moors and
finally sweeps through the mid state this weekend. But the
primary impacts after tonight will be areal flooding, river
flooding and also flash flooding in areas affected by high
rainfall rates. Temperatures will remain quite warm the remainder
of this week. (Today`s high temperature of 85 degrees at
Nashville was just 2 degrees shy of the daily record high.) The
unusually warm air mass and moisture transport provided by strong
low-level winds, coupled with the close proximity of the quasi-
stationary boundary are fueling what is expected to be some large
rainfall totals.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 912 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Blocking high pressure centered off the Carolina coast will
finally relent this weekend and enable the stalled frontal
boundary to come through Middle Tennessee late Saturday and
Saturday night, with one more round of potentially severe storms
and heavy rainfall before this active weather pattern draws to an
end. By the time the rain finally winds down on Sunday, we are
looking at storm total QPF of 2 to 3" along the Cumberland
Plateau, to 5 to 7" across Nashville Metro, to 10+" around Land-
between-the-Lakes. So we do expect significant rises along rivers
and creeks across a large portion of the mid state. Fortunately,
the weather next week will be much more benign, albeit
significantly cooler. Of note, widespread frost is possible
Tuesday morning, and many spots can expect freezing temperatures
Wednesday morning before we start to warm back up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Strong to severe storms have moved into Middle Tennessee with more
to follow. A quasi-stationary surface boundary is in the process
of setting up just to our northwest and this will provide the
focus for active weather for the next 4 days. In the near-term,
areas closest to the boundary can expect the most significant
impacts, so we`ve included TS in the initial period at CKV along
with significant LLWS. There are lesser chances of storms for KBNA
and even less for KMQY. The HRRR shows a line of storms developing
later this evening and moving into the Nashville Metro Area after
06Z, but not much further. KCSV and KSRB, being so far from the
boundary, have only a low probability of seeing active weather in
the next 24 hrs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  78  67  86 /  70  80  50  40
Clarksville    63  71  61  83 /  90  90  70  70
Crossville     65  80  64  83 /  20  30  20  20
Columbia       67  81  67  86 /  60  60  40  30
Cookeville     66  80  66  83 /  40  60  30  30
Jamestown      65  80  64  83 /  40  60  30  30
Lawrenceburg   69  81  69  85 /  40  40  30  20
Murfreesboro   67  82  66  86 /  50  60  40  20
Waverly        63  72  63  84 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ005>011-023>031-
056>060-062-093.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Rose




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Raleigh NC

 836 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will remain over northwest North Carolina through
Thursday morning. The front will resume its northward motion late
Thursday, lifting well north of the area and leading to a strong
warm air flow into the region through Sunday. A cold front will
approach from the west Sunday evening, then slowly move through the
region through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 836 PM Wednesday...

Overview: Early evening radar and satellite imagery reveals abundant
cloud cover across much of NC, with a few showers and isolated non-
severe storms moving through the western Piedmont. The showers
developed following the passage of a warm front that has mostly made
it through the forecast area as of 00Z...with the only site
remaining on the cool/stable side of the front being INT with a
dewpoint of 51 whereas all other sites have dewpoints in the upper
50s to mid 60s. This is all setting the stage for a cloudy/mild
night tonight.

Precip chances: PoPs will be maintained across the western Piedmont
through the remainder of the evening hours with a mention of showers
and thunderstorms mainly from the Triad south to the SC state line.
Several consecutive runs of the HRRR and other hi-res models insist
that these showers will maintain themselves as they move northward.
Instability is forecast to increase a bit through midnight per SPC
mesoanalysis page, but a lack of strong forcing should keep them
below severe thresholds. Eventually after midnight the BL should
stabilize and these showers should dissipate, but quickly be
replaced by areas of drizzle as strengthening isentropic ascent
overspreads much of NC tonight. Drizzle may be seen as far east as
the Triangle before daybreak, and a 15-20 percent mention of precip
will be maintained in these areas as well.

Temperatures: Expect lows to range from the low/mid 60s in the
north, to the upper 60s in the south. It`s entirely conceivable that
a few spots in the southern Coastal Plain may stay above 70 tonight.
See climate records section below, including record warm minimum
temperatures which could be jeopardized tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Wednesday...

* Thursday will begin a stretch of anomalously warm conditions with
  little overnight relief.

Widespread low overcast, and perhaps some light drizzle, Thur
morning will gradually lift/scatter from southeast to northwest
through the morning into the early afternoon.

Continued strengthening/expanding of the anomalous sub-tropical
ridge over the southwest N. Atlantic, scattering cloud cover, and
12z low-level thicknesses 40m above normal for early April, will
result in the first of several days of abnormal heat for central NC
as temperatures rise into the upper 70s to mid/upper 80s. Warmest
temps will likely be across the Sandhills into the eastern Piedmont
and Coastal Plain where erosion low overcast occurs first.

In the wake of the low overcast, diurnal heating of the already
warm/moist airmass in place will result in moderate instability
(1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) mainly over the Piedmont. Proximity to
the strong sub-tropical ridge may prevent much or even any deep
convection, but isolated showers will be possible during the
afternoon into the early evening hours. Among the latest 12z Hi-Res
guidance, only the HRRR develops any deeper convection, likely since
it has surface dew points closer to 70 degrees while mean 12z HREF
dew points are closer to mid 60s during the afternoon. Light
stirring southwesterly flow and potential redevelopment of some low
overcast will result in another unseasonably warm night as
temperatures only dip into the mid 60s.

&&


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 PM Wednesday...

High chances for showers and isolated storms late Sun into Mon will
be bookended by near-record warmth on the front end and cool temps
with a freeze potential on the back end.

Fri/Fri night: Generally dry and very warm conditions are expected,
but there remains a chance for a few showers and perhaps a storm in
the far N, near the VA border, associated with a backdoor front.
This frontal approach will be largely driven by a fast polar
shortwave trough crossing E Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes,
allowing a progressive 1030+ mb high to briefly nose down the Mid
Atlantic coast. This cooler air should be fleeting and shallow this
far S, as the strong low-mid level anticyclone just off the
Southeast/FL will persist. The ens output shows a pretty small
spread with this frontal feature, and the output mean takes the
front just to the NC/VA border Fri evening before dissolving or
lifting the surface front back northward by daybreak Sat. The ens
members favor at least isolated convection Fri evening into the
overnight hours, particularly in our far NE over and E of Kerr Lake,
in conjunction with a ribbon of ~1.25" PW near the front. Will
maintain the previous chance pops late afternoon through evening,
with isolated thunder given a short period of 500-1000 J/kg
projected. If we can manage to get any CAPE, given the shallow
strongly veering profile near the surface near and just N of this
boundary on forecast hodographs, a quick spinup of a landspout could
occur, but this potential is very low, given the poor CAPE and lack
of other strong lift. With thicknesses likely to be 50-60 m above
normal with decent sunshine (after a little morning stratus) and
deep mixing, highs in the 80s to around 90 are likely (see climate
section below for record temp info). Lows mostly in the low-mid 60s.

Sat/Sat night: Dry and continued quite warm, with the strong
subtropical ridge holding firm and keeping us stable and capped
aloft, and strong WAA in the low levels. We again may see areas of
stratus early Sat and again late Sat night, with partly cloudy skies
between, and with thicknesses staying anomalously high, temps should
again peak in the mid 80s to around 90, perhaps some lower 90s, with
mild lows in the 60s.

Sun through Mon: Best chance for prefrontal convection still looks
to be Sun evening and night, with chances shifting to along/E of Hwy
1 Mon. The surface cold front is expected to be situated from the
central Gulf up through central and E TN and central PA to New
England early Sun. Strengthening and flattening SW steering flow
from the TX Gulf coast through the Mid Atlantic region and Northeast
will tamp down the subtropical ridge and suppress it SE, and as the
correlated prefrontal ribbon of 1.5-2.0" PW is nudged eastward by
digging troughing in the polar stream with southern stream phasing,
we should see an increase in both thick cloud cover and rain chances
from the west late in the day, with models pointing to Sun evening
and overnight for the peak coverage, and will maintain high pops,
likely to categorical, during this time window. The front should
slow for a time or even stall out briefly into Mon as we await
southern stream sheared energy to help kick the front to our east,
and will slowly decrease and exit rain chances W to E Mon into the
evening. Ens probabilities of more than a couple hundred J/kg of
CAPE is pretty low, so have held onto lower thunder coverage,
isolated to scattered at most, likely embedded within the showers.
Still expect plenty of highs in the 80s to near 90 Sun, then mostly
70s Mon.

Tue/Wed: Dry and much cooler, with a freeze still possible in some
areas Tue night. The secondary/reinforcing cold front is expected to
be over far W NC early Tue, pushing SE through central NC during the
day and settling well S across FL as cool high pressure builds in
from the Ohio Valley and Midwest and mid level polar stream
troughing shifts through the E CONUS, features with which the ens
output shows very good agreement. Thus, confidence is high in dry
conditions with below normal temps, culminating in low level
thicknesses projected to be 50-60 m below normal Wed morning. Freeze
conditions may occur, esp if we can decouple Tue night. Expect highs
in the upper 50s to mid 60s. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 715 PM Wednesday...

Mainly VFR conditions across the area at the moment, but conditions
will rapidly deteriorate to IFR or lower between 00Z and 06Z as
onshore flow and weak isentropic ascent support the development of
widespread stratus later tonight. All sites should see several hours
of low ceilings through daybreak, after which time clouds will
gradually break up and return to VFR before noon. Weak ascent should
also support widespread drizzle across the western Piedmont in
particular, although likely not enough to restrict vsbys. The weak
ascent may also result in a few hours of LLWS at INT, but likely not
strong enough to warrant inclusion elsewhere.

Something else worth monitoring tonight is the potential for
isolated shower development across the far western Piedmont,
including near INT. Showers have formed south of the CLT metro and
are making their way northward. Several runs of the HRRR are
insistent that these will maintain themselves as far north as the
NC/VA border, moving through INT in the process. I`ll maintain a few
hours of PROB30 for a brief shower there, but leave the remainder of
the area shower free.

Outlook: IFR ceilings are likely again Thursday night and Friday
night, despite the meager precipitation chances, due to moist/humid
low-level flow. A strong cold front will bring showers and possibly
a thunderstorm along with flight restrictions as early as Sunday
afternoon at INT/GSO and continuing at all sites Sunday night and
Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

April 3:
KRDU: 91/1967
KFAY: 90/1934

April 4:
KGSO: 86/1934
KRDU: 88/1934
KFAY: 93/1910

April 5:
KGSO: 87/1942
KRDU: 90/1942
KFAY: 91/1942

April 6:
KGSO: 89/2010
KRDU: 93/1967
KFAY: 91/2010


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 3:
KGSO: 64/1946
KRDU: 62/2000
KFAY: 65/1977

April 4:
KGSO: 62/1999
KRDU: 63/2017
KFAY: 63/2017

April 5:
KGSO: 60/2023
KRDU: 64/1910
KFAY: 64/2008

April 6:
KGSO: 65/2023
KRDU: 69/2023
KFAY: 69/2023

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Leins/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Leins/Green
CLIMATE...RAH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Charleston WV

 925 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching system serves up showers and thunderstorms at
times through the weekend, with flooding increasingly likely for
the Mid-Ohio Valley region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 923 PM Wednesday...

Our linear complex of storms to the west has gained some steam
and is gradually propagating eastward, with some scattered
cells ahead of the main line. Current SSCRAM/HRRR guidance shows
damaging wind probs entering our area between 11pm and 2am tonight.
There is a bit of CINH over our area though, -50 to -100 J/Kg,
and models project that a stout -200 J/Kg will remain ahead of
the line 4 to 6 hours from now. The front that is forcing this
line is projected to slow down overnight too. These factors
could lead to a similar scenario of the system that crossed
previous Sunday into Monday where we saw a serious degradation
of the line as it tried to move across our area.

Thinking our Ohio, Kentucky and western West Virginia counties
would see the brunt of the activity before the line weakens
early Thursday morning, becoming mostly showers with moderate
to heavy rain there after. Latest HRRR and other CAMs support
this scenario, though do keep the line fairly stout than would
like as it traverses our area tonight.

The previously mentioned threats are still on the table with
damaging winds and heavy rain leading to flash flooding being
the main concerns across our area. There does remain the chance
for pockets of hail and an isolated tornado or two embedded in
the line, but these chances remain mostly skewed across our
KY/OH/western WV counties.

As of 300 PM Wednesday...

Key Points:

 * An approaching disturbance will serve up potential for
   severe weather on Thursday.

 * The slow movement of this system will set off a prolonged
   period of flooding concerns beginning overnight and into the
   weekend.

After a brief stint of strong to severe thunderstorms across the
Ohio River Valley earlier this afternoon draped along a warm
front, the forecast area has returned to a quiet state for the
time being. Ample sunshine in tandem with breezy onshore flow
in the wake of the front have yielded quite the rise in
temperatures this afternoon. Local observations show a stark
gradient between the lowlands and the WV foothills and
mountains, who have been plagued with low hanging stratus for
much of the day. Here at the forecast office we`ve crested over
the 80 degree mark already this afternoon, with locations in the
Tri-State area now making a run for the mid 80s before diurnal
heating phases out for the day.

An area to closely monitor while we remain positioned in the
warm sector of an advancing low pressure system this evening
will be a line of strong and severe thunderstorms trekking
through the lower Great Lakes region down into the Arklatex
region, marking the current location of the disturbance`s
attendant cold front. How well storms maintain their current
composure as they track across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
this evening will determine the severity risk for the Central
Appalachians late tonight into the early morning hours on
Thursday. Retained previous thinking that storms will begin to
peter out as they encroach the western flank of the forecast
area, but still could pose concerns for damaging wind gusts at
the very least due to a strong 50-70kt low level jet parked
overhead.

Low level moisture will continue to be advected in from the
southwest on Thursday ahead of the cold frontal passage.
Forecast dew points ranging between 55 to 65F will be in place
by midday Thursday as the frontal boundary moseys on in from
the west. Depending on how overnight radar activity pans out,
current thinking is that precipitation will settle into the Ohio
River Valley by daybreak and slowly ooze southeastward through
the late morning hours. Daytime heating across the central
lowlands and southeast portions of the forecast area could still
achieve high temperatures in the low 70s to help engage renewed
potential for severe weather Thursday afternoon. All hazards
remain in play, with damaging winds remaining at the forefront
of the severity risk due to the strong jet aloft. 12Z RAOB
soundings this morning around the region pinpointed freezing
levels between 7 to 10kft AGL with similar positioning tomorrow,
which could impose another round of large hail as maturing storms
grow upward. Also cannot rule out potential for tornadoes due to
decent low level helicity indicated on forecast soundings for
the afternoon time period.

In addition to severe potential, this frontal boundary will
become the focus for prolonged hydro concerns heading into the
extended period of the forecast. The front is progged to become
stationary on Thursday, with embedded waves of energy aiding in
enriching moisture heading into tomorrow evening. The Flood
Watch will go into effect starting tonight to beginning
capturing this potential for flooding concerns as the ground
becomes more saturated over the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 156 PM Wednesday...

Frontal boundary initially stalled out across the area early Friday,
should generally lift back north during the day. Heavy rain/storms
are looking likely early Friday along the Ohio River and North
Central WV in area of front. However, showers and storms will
continue to occur during the day Friday, but thinking is as we
progress into the late afternoon or evening hours, the bulk of
precipitation should generally be north of the Ohio River closer to
the front. Still looking at the potential for severe storms, mainly
north of the Ohio River on Friday, with a damaging wind threat
possible. By the time we get into Friday evening/night, the front
should have lifted well to our north, along with the axis of heavier
rainfall as waves of low pressure move along the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

Key Point:
* Flooding concerns linger into early next week.

An unsettled pattern continues as a low pressure system moves into
the Great Lakes region and then migrates northeast on Saturday.
While drier conditions may creep in to southern and eastern portions
of the CWA during the afternoon, the best chances for precipitation
linger across southeast OH, northwest WV, and northeast KY. Rain and
thunderstorms overspread the area as a cold front approaches
Saturday night, then activity continues into Sunday night while the
front slowly trudges east.

During the first half of the work week, another low passes to the
north while an associated upper trough pivots overhead. Periods of
precipitation remain possible as this system crosses and potentially
sends another front across the area.

Flooding remains a concern, particularly across the western half of
the CWA where soils are already expected to be saturated from
previous rainfall. In addition to an initial risk of flash flooding
this weekend, runoff is expected to lead to rises on rivers, creeks,
and streams with potential for river flooding to persist through
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 754 PM Wednesday...

Some showers and thunderstorms have popped up across SE Ohio and
the lowlands west of Charleston late this afternoon. Some
lightning and small hail have been reported with these. They
appear to be weakening at this time though and will likely
continue to do so with the sun setting.

VFR conditions expected for most of the evening until a complex
of storms arrives at our western door step between ~04-06z
tonight, then slowly pushing westward. Some of these storms will
likely be strong to severe with damaging winds, hail and the
chance for an isolated tornado or two. MVFR and IFR restrictions
will accompany this system.

The convective activity will likely die down early in the
morning morning, but showers will remain across the area with
pockets of heavy rain possible. MVFR conditions will likely
accompany this through the morning. Another round of strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon with
damaging winds, hail and isolated tornado potential being the
risk factors on the table.

SSE winds will remain breezy to gusty tonight as a low-level jet
moves in overhead and strengthens. Gusts between 20 and 30 kts
will be common for most sites. 45 to 55 kts of LLWS remains in
the TAFs for most sites overnight as the low level jet strengthens.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions with
showers and thunderstorms could vary. Timing and intensity for
thunderstorms could also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 04/03/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
night through Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Sunday morning for
     WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Sunday morning for
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Sunday morning for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...MEK/LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...LTC




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Angelo TX

 1055 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is an enhanced risk of severe weather across the Big
  Country tonight, with a lower risk of severe storms across the
  remainder of West Central Texas.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into
  Friday night.

- A brief light freeze may be possible Sunday morning in low
  lying and protected areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A large scale upper level trough will remain west of the area the
next 24 hours. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary that moved
through the area this morning will lift back north as a warm
front overnight. The front is expected to stall along or just
south of the I-20 corridor by late this evening. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop along and north of the front per latest
CAMs, with the HRRR developing convection a bit farther south
across the Concho Valley by late evening. The NAM12 focuses
convection mainly across the Big Country after midnight. A strong
low level jet will develop just after midnight, with perhaps the
best area of storm development along the nose of the low level jet
across northern portions of the Concho Valley into the Big
Country and just north of the stalled frontal boundary. Highest
POPs for tonight and the greatest severe threat will favor
northern portions of the Heartland into the eastern half of the
Big Country, where a slight and enhanced risk for severe storms
exists. As such, elevated supercells will be possible and will
favor mainly a large hail threat with any storms that do develop,
although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Precipitation is expected to move east of the area around
daybreak Thursday, with dry weather for the rest of the day
before the next chance for storms arrive tomorrow night. The
aforementioned front will drift south during the day, keeping
temperatures cool to the north and warm south of the front. Highs
will range from the mid and upper 70s across the Big Country,
to the mid and upper 80s along the I-10 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A much more active weather pattern will continue across the
region over the next few days. The well developed low pressure
system develops across the Four Corners Region and will move
across the northern half of Texas developing more widespread
thunderstorms on Friday night into Saturday morning. Much colder
air will funnel into the region behind the cold frontal boundary.
The NAM model, along with other models, is now showing a faster
push of cold air to the south. This may act to push the associated
thunderstorms across the region quicker. Despite this, locally
heavy rainfall may produce rainfall totals near an inch. This
could pose a Marginal Risk (5% chance) of excessive rainfall
leading to flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has
highlighted portions of our area on Friday through Saturday
morning. Some severe weather is possible. Large hail and damaging
winds seem to be the primary hazards at this point. The Storm
Prediction Center has much of our area in a Slight Risk.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Conditions will quickly deterioriate during the first six hours of
the TAF period as MVFR ceilings and scattered thunderstorms will
develop. Thunderstorms on each terminal should be brief, but
impactful hail and strong wind gusts possible. MVFR ceilings could
persist until late morning for some locations with some few to
scattered layers in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     82  55  73  54 /  20  70  20  80
San Angelo  85  56  81  55 /  10  30   0  70
Junction    90  62  88  62 /  10  20   0  50
Brownwood   85  58  79  57 /  20  50  30  70
Sweetwater  81  54  74  53 /  10  50  10  80
Ozona       86  58  84  58 /  10  20   0  70
Brady       86  61  82  61 /  10  20  10  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...SK