Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 04/01/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
808 PM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread alpine snow developing tonight and continuing
through Tuesday night.
- Showers and windy conditions across lower elevations Tuesday.
- Another chance of snow Wednesday night through Thursday night
with some rain mixing in on the plains. There is a low chance
that this system produces accumulating snow with travel impacts
on the plains.
- More significant precipitation still possible around Saturday,
but chances of heavy precipitation or significant snow are
decreasing.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 PM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025
WSW flow will continue overnight. Cross-sections show an increase
in moisture, in the nrn mtns after midnight, with WSW flow favoring
the Park Range and wrn areas of zn 33 for heavier snow. Otherwise
there will be periods of lighter snow in other mtn areas. Across
the plains, there have been some strong storms north of the CO-NE
border. These have been moving eastward and have shown no sign of
developing further southward. Thus will only mention low pops
over the far nern plains thru midnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Water vapor satellite imagery showing a closed low off the Oregon
and northern California coast with strong westerly flow aloft
across the intermountain west. This will spread moist eastward
across the Rockies tonight and Tuesday. For Colorado, moisture
increases tonight in the west-southwest flow aloft bringing
widespread mountain snow. Steep lapse rates of 7-9(C/km) up to
400mb and the left exit region of the jet will slide across the
region. Snowfall amounts of 8 to 14 inches are expected, with
locally heavier amounts possible if we end up with banded
snowfall. One thing working against heavier snowfall is the west-
southwest flow aloft through Tuesday morning.
Upper level pattern gets messy Tuesday with broad troughiness
across the Great Basin and Rockies. Models show a new closed low
forming over Montana and northern Wyoming Tuesday with troughiness
extending south through eastern Colorado. At the surface, cold
front tracks southward late Tuesday morning and afternoon. For the
urban corridor and eastern plains, models vary greatly on the
cold front. The ECMWF shows a well defined northerly push for late
morning and afternoon with rain showers, possibly mixing/changing
to snow late in the day. At the other end of the spectrum, the
HRRR model washes out the cold front with gusty westerly downslope
winds prevailing through the day leading to dry conditions.
Leaning heavily towards the ECMWF. The HRRR has a history of over
mixing this type of westerly flow, Also, the GFS is somewhat
similar to the ECMWF, so wouldn`t be surprised to see numerous
showers over the Denver area and parts of the plains. As far as
high winds and high fire danger goes, expect the worst conditions
to be over southeast Colorado. Southern Lincoln County approaches
red flag criteria, but widespread red flag conditions are expected
to fall short of being met as the cold front brings higher
humidities mid to late afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Monday/...
Issued at 340 PM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025
A shortwave trough will be moving out of our forecast area on
Wednesday which will lead to brief subsident flow. This will put
an end to the showers for the most part across the plains and
foothills. Some light snow showers will continue in the mountains
with minimal amounts. Temperatures will be cooler than normal as
cold air aloft stays overhead.
Models have gotten more interesting for Thursday with respect to
the strength of a shortwave trough. Some models, especially the
GFS, have this shortwave much stronger than previous runs and it
is possible that up to 40 knots of easterly winds develop at 700
mb. The GFS ensemble members with the strong easterly winds,
along with warm air advection, have significant snow on the
plains with a third of the members producing over 8" of snow for
Denver. So it now appears Thursday will need to be watched closely
because there exists a small chance for a relatively significant
snowfall. PoPs, QPF, and snow amounts were increased on Thursday
for much of our forecast area. The most likely scenario is a trace
to 3 inches across the Denver metro and plains while 2-6" is
possible over the Palmer Divide.
There will be a brief break in the precipitation during the day on
Friday as the shortwave that produces snow over our area on
Thursday moves out of the area. There will be some moderation in
temperatures with highs near 50 in Denver but that is still well
below normal.
Models are coming into better agreement for the Friday night
through Saturday night system. A ridge off the southeast US coast
will stall a large shortwave trough over Arizona on Friday. Models
then have this shortwave trough weakening as it moves eastward and
this is the reason the chance for a significant storm continues to
decrease. Having said that, Friday and into Saturday, a cold front
will move across the northeast plains of Colorado with moderate
northeast, upslope winds behind it. This, along with healthy
moisture in the area, will combine to create high coverage of snow
across our forecast area. The foothills and Palmer Divide will see
the highest snowfall totals in this event due to upslope flow.
Snow amounts in the 6-12" range could occur in those areas through
Saturday night. The I-25 corridor will see lighter amounts but
travel could be impacted especially Saturday morning. Very little
snow may fall over the far northeast plains as temperatures will
be warmer with much less overall precipitation falling there. High
PoPs in the 70-80 percent range are in the forecast for most of
the forecast area Friday night and Saturday morning.
There will be a warming and drying trend Sunday through the middle
of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 513 PM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025
A few boundaries moved across DIA this aftn which have led to
chaotic directions. Winds have gone more NW and should stay
that way thru 01z. Radar shows srn part of boundary has stalled
and may eventually move back north. This could lead to a more S or
SE wind between 01z and 02z but confidence is low. At any rate
winds should transition to SSW by 06z.
On Tue, SW winds will increase by 13z and then turn more W or WNW
by 18Z. Gusts from 30-35 mph will be possible by 18z. In the aftn,
a band of showers may move across by 21z with winds become more
NW. Gusts to 30-35 mph will continue thru 00z. Ceilings may drop
down to 4000-5000 ft if band of showers do come across in the
aftn.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for COZ031-033-
034.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Danielson
AVIATION...RPK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
936 PM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers with a few thunderstorms will move over the High
Plains through this evening and may produce isolated small,
soft hail.
- Rain showers will change to snow by early evening in Carbon
county, with multiple rounds of snow showers expected through
Tuesday morning. Some snow showers will be locally intense,
producing low visibility and slick conditions along I-80.
- Moisture wrapping back into the area may produce slushy snow
accumulations along the US-20 corridor Tuesday evening through
Wednesday morning, but confidence is fairly low.
- Strong to locally high winds return to the area Tuesday and
Wednesday.
- Cold end to the week and start to the weekend, with a warming
trend expected to start next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 402 PM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Spring is surely in the air today with thunderstorms, snow, and wind
all in the forecast somewhere in our area over the next few days.
A broad trough encompassing much of the western CONUS this week will
keep an unsettled weather pattern in place. While the main trough
axis is still off of the West coast, a powerful Pacific jet stream
is surging inland across the Great Basin and along the WY/CO border.
Current mesoanalysis shows moist isentropic lift in place across
much of the area, which is helping to kick off another round of
shower activity this afternoon. With upwards of 500 J/kg SBCAPE in
place across far southeast Wyoming and the addition of added lift
from a synoptically forced Chugwater cyclone convergence zone, some
of these showers are producing lightning. Very low freezing levels
will make it pretty easy to get small hail out of any convective
showers or thunderstorms today, but it will probably be of the
softer variety. Expect this activity to grow increase in coverage
over Goshen & Niobrara counties, and then spread into the central
and northern Nebraska panhandle. Activity is also expected to fill
in further west (Converse & Carbon) ahead of the frontal boundary
currently straddling across central Wyoming. Modest convective
instability and very steep lapse rates are also present in this
area, and precipitation should quickly flip over to snow once it
begins. Therefore, locally intense banded snowfall can be expected
along and ahead of the frontal boundary through about the middle of
the evening hours. We will need to monitor for short-fused hazard
potential. While snow accumulations are not expected to be
significant on the roadways, significant visibility drops and
crashing temperatures could still cause short term problems. This
activity, and the showers over the High Plains, should continue
until the frontal boundary clears the area a little before midnight.
After a short break, strong isentropic lift will pick up again after
about midnight across Carbon county ahead of another stronger cold
front which will follow a more obvious upper level shortwave trough
axis. While this activity will be more stratiform rather than
convective, models are showing a region of frontogenesis developing
along the lifting northeastward just on the fringe of a
strengthening surface/lower atmosphere low pressure center. Hi-res
models are depicting the potential for upwards of 0.5" liquid
precipitation under the frontogenesis band. While the warm
antecedent conditions will make accumulations difficult, especially
on the road, the potential for heavier rates and largely overnight
timing may still lead to some difficult travel conditions.
Therefore, decided to expand the Winter Weather Advisory to central
and northern Carbon county, starting this afternoon to cover the
first frontal passage, and continuing through Tuesday morning to
cover the second phase too. Most snow amounts will probably be in
the 1 to 4" range, but locally higher amounts and the potential for
very low visibility is enough to nudge to an advisory.
Tuesday will be another messy day across the area. Lee cyclogenesis
is expected tonight across the High Plains, and a strong surface
cyclone will wrap up and lift northeastward through the day Tuesday.
While most guidance shows this low pressure center developing over
northeast Colorado and lifting into southwest Nebraska, there are a
few outlier models (e.g. RAP and HRRR) which show the surface low
centered near the North Platte River Valley. This is notable because
the outlier case would lead to the development of a westerly sting
jet across the I-80 corridor Tuesday morning and significantly
increase the potential for high winds. While worth mentioning, this
remains an outlier, and nearly all LREF members keep the low
pressure center to our south, thus leading to a more NW wind
orientation, and overall lighter speeds. Even in the lighter wind
scenario though, it will be a pretty windy day across the entire
area with temperatures slightly below seasonal averages.
By Tuesday evening, the cyclone will be moving across central South
Dakota, but it will have a very large circulation. As a result,
moisture may begin to wrap back into our northern areas Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday morning. Overall ensemble spread depicts
roughly a 30% probability of 0.25"+ liquid precipitation along the
US-20 corridor from Douglas to Chadron, with a few outlier members
showing over 0.75" or more. For now, the forecast favors the median
solution which is modest precipitation (mostly wet snow) Tuesday
night into Wednesday leading to about 1 to 4" of slushy accumulation
in the US-20 corridor through midday Wednesday. The tight pressure
gradient remaining over the area will also increase the
probabilities of high winds for the wind prone areas (particularly
the I-80 summit) Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This messy
storm should finally depart Wednesday afternoon, bringing a short
break into early Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 402 PM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025
The long term begins active as we see more rounds of
precipitation moving across the region, though models continue
to tone down expected QPF amounts with the bulk of accumulation
further to our south. Still, some appreciable rain and snow will
be possible, primarily impacting our southern and eastern zones,
through the end of the week, with a warming trend moving late
into the weekend and into the extended forecast.
Thursday begins with a broad upper-level trough over the
majority of the Western US, with this system expected to tighten
up and form into a more consolidated trough through Friday,
including a closed upper-low in the Desert Southwest, before
then slowly sliding eastwards over the course of the weekend,
allowing a transitory ridge to then take its place to start next
week. At the surface, we should see a pair of shortwaves moving
across the region on Thursday and Friday, with a strong high
descending from Canada and overtaking the Western US by late in
the weekend. Under this pattern, we can expect to see a couple
of rounds of QPF on Thursday and again Friday from these passing
shortwaves, but with the strongest forcing and more plentiful
moisture further south of the region, significant accumulations
will be unlikely with each of these systems. NBM
probabilities for snow have seen quite the reduction since this
weekend, with 24-hour accumulations of 1 inch or more at only
25-40% for our southern zones outside of the mountains, and only
slightly better for Friday as by Saturday morning we see a more
widespread 30-50% of once again 1+ inch for a 24-hour period,
primarily for Laramie and Albany Counties. And with any snow
that does fall, warm ground temperatures should preclude much in
the way of total accumulations. Otherwise, overall QPF amounts
stay on the lighter side, less than 0.2 inch outside of the
mountains, so the chance of heavy precipitation in any case is
unlikely. Meanwhile these systems will bring a fresh batch of
cold continental air from up north, bottoming out on Saturday
with widespread highs in the 30`s to 40`s and sub-freezing lows
in the teens to low 20`s. But as the ridging begins to overtake
again this weekend, we`ll see a pretty quick turnaround, and
should be expecting widespread 60`s once again to start next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 928 PM MDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Southwest flow aloft will turn west on Tuesday as a cold front
moves across the terminals.
Wyoming TAFS...For Rawlins, ceilings will range from 800 to
2500 feet until 12Z, with light snow reducing visibilities to
3/4 to 4 miles, then ceilings will improve to 4000 to
10000 feet. Winds will gust to 30 knots from 12Z to 00Z.
For Laramie and Cheyenne, ceilings will range from 5000 to
9000 feet. Winds will gust to 35 knots at Cheyenne after 15Z
Tuesday, and to 32 knots at Laramie from 15Z to 00Z.
Nebraska TAFS...Ceilings will lower to 1500 feet through 15Z,
with fog reducing visibilities to 1 to 3 miles, then ceilings
will improve to 3500 to 10000 feet after 15Z, except for light
rain and fog at Chadron and Alliance after 00Z, reducing
visibilities to 3 miles and ceilings to 2500 feet. Winds will
gust to 25 knots at Sidney until 09Z, and after 00Z.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM MDT Tuesday for WYZ104-105-
109-110.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ112-114.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...RUBIN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1051 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...Updated 06z Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to severe storms expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall are the most likely
hazards. Tornadoes are also possible.
- Gusty winds around 30-40 mph return Tuesday morning continuing
through the afternoon. Isolated gusts above 45 mph are possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
There is a lot to unpack with the forecast, so let`s start with the
more clear cut aspects. This afternoon is going to be fairly quiet
and cool with highs around the area reaching into the low to mid 50s
thanks to a boost from solar heating as clouds continue clearing out
this afternoon. A very strong LLJ forms across the central CONUS
overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. This jet stretches from West
Texas all the way into southern Saskatchewan. Simultaneously, a large
500mb trough traverses to the the leeward side of the northern
Rockies with a southern jet streak whose exit region dumps straight
into western KS and OK. This helps spin up a lee trough that deepens
through the morning Tuesday. While all of this is occurring across
eastern CO and western KS, the 850mb jet sets up across eastern KS
into western MO. Unimpeded mixing from the base of this jet to the
surface will result in another day of gusty winds. Gusts around 35-
40 mph are possible with the potential for some isolated gusts over
45 mph are possible. It certainly poses the question of if a Wind
Advisory through the afternoon is needed. At this current juncture,
widespread, frequent 45+ mph gusts should be more concentrated west
of the area with the frequency of 45+ mph gusts in our region being
much less.
This wide wind field also results in warm air and moisture being
vaulted into the region. Highs Tuesday increase 10-15 degrees into
the mid 60s to near 70. More importantly dew points soar almost 25-
30 degrees from sunrise until midnight Tuesday into Wednesday. This
creates a fairly unstable environment across central and eastern KS
Tuesday afternoon. This is where things become a little more
complex. Cold frontogenesis as well as a dryline act as a catalyst
for convection Tuesday evening across central and eastern KS. Timing
of convective initiation looks to be around 7-9 PM. Further
accelerated southerly flow ahead of these boundaries sharpens the
temperature and moisture gradient maintaining storms. CAM guidance
points toward a rather robust line of convection making its way
through the region entering far NW MO around 10-11 PM, reaching the
KC metro around 12-2 AM WED, and marching through Sedalia and
Kirksville around 3-5 AM.
Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary hazards. Confidence
is fairly high in these hazards. MUCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg, DCAPE
nearing 800 J/kg, and lapse rates around 7-8 C/km bring about decent
convective parameters for large hail (potentially up to 2 inches)
and damaging winds (possibly 70+ mph). Vertical profiles and
hodographs show ample shear and helicity especially in the lowest 3
km. Where things become more uncertain is the overall environment
ahead of the storms system and how it will change after sunset. It
will be a race between nocturnal cooling and warm air advection.
This will play a crucial role in the low level environment. After
sunset, the low layers cool off forming an inversion and generally
decoupling from the surface. This effectively causes cloud bases to
rise above the inversion creating elevated storms. However, warm air
advection ahead of the storms may warm the low layers just enough
for storms to remain surface based. This could increase the
potential for stronger storms and tornadoes as surface based storms
would be able to tap into the notably sheared low level environment
indicated by model 0-3 km hodographs. Looking at CAM members which
specifically maintain that surface based connection shows a large
QLCS structure. The most recent run of the HRRR also shows the
potential for leading supercells which is increasingly concerning
for all severe weather hazards. However, model vertical profiles
also keep the generally high based storm environment. These profiles
also show WAA potentially maintaining the CAP reducing the chances
for storms to return to surface based. Unfortunately, we will not
get a clear picture of how these storms might behave until after
they have formed in central KS. Fortunately, there should be ample
amount of time to see how storms will interact with the environment
before they arrive on our doorstep. It is important to note that the
uncertainty in surface versus elevated storms does not affect the
potential for damaging winds and large hail. Another potential
hazard that is often overlooked is heavy rainfall. Guidance is
suggesting PWAT values around 1.1-1.5 inches indicating the
potential for heavy downpours. 1-hour flash flood guidance sits
around 1.2-1.5 inches meaning that an excessively heavy downpour
could lead to localized flooding issues. Right now that threat for
flooding hazards remains relatively low compared to the wind and
hail; however, it should not be overlooked. It is imperative that
you have multiple methods for receiving weather alerts during the
overnight hours.
The day Wednesday once again looks to be warm and breezy. The dry
air behind the storms decreases cloud coverage and enables
temperatures to rise into the 60s and 70s. Beyond Wednesday, another
substantial synoptic low moves into the SW CONUS. This ejects
several shortwave across the CONUS which compete with a midlevel
high that settles across the the northern CONUS. This has been
pushing rain potential in and out of the region for the next
several days. Model runs have been rather divergent bringing ran
into and out of the region flipping about depending on which
sinusoidal pattern it chooses to run with. We will dig into this
pattern evolution after dealing with the storm system on deck.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Strong system starts to move toward the area Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Expecting stronger southwesterly wind gusts through
the afternoon and most of the evening. Ceilings will develop
ahead of the front but expecting most bases to be VFR. A few
isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, therefore, have
placed the PROB30 groups toward the end of the TAFs, but the
bulk of the activity along the cold front may be after 06z
during the early morning hours of Wednesday.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Krull
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Late afternoon convection is still affecting portions of
central/eastern Palm Beach, and metro areas of south
Broward/northern Miami-Dade counties. LPMM and High-Res short term
data suggest these cells could linger through around 9-10pm while
slowly dissipating. Thus, POP/Wx grids have been updated to
reflect this longer timeframe for these cells to last.
Rainfall estimates of 2-3 inches have prompted a Flood advisory
for the Miramar area, including US-27, with additional 1 or 2
inches possible during the next hour or so.
Rest of the forecast package remains on track and no further
updates are required attm. Expect another mild evening and
overnight hours with lows in the mid-upper 60s inland, and in the
low 70s near the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1204 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
GOES Imagery early this afternoon depicts cloud streets of shallow
capped cumulus clouds reminiscent of summer time across South
Florida. The discussion & forecast from the midnight shift remains
on track with the potential of a few strong to marginally severe
storms this afternoon across the eastern half of the area. Mesoscale
models such as the HRRR and RAP have been fickle and
unrepresentative for our region over the last several days. However,
more dry air in the vertical column should indeed limit convective
coverage compared to what unfolded yesterday. Rain chances remain at
a modest 30-40% along the east coast of SoFlo with lower values west
of Lake Okeechobee. Forecast parameters such as DCAPE 1100+ J/kg,
SBCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/Kg, and steep low level lapse rates support
the threat of some robust storm activity once the capping
inversion erodes even though 500mb temperatures are a few degrees
warmer than yesterday. If a taller core does develops, DCAPE and
dry mid- level air may allow for strong to severe downbursts (&
wind gusts) to occur. 500mb temperatures of - 9C to -10C could
still support the potential of small hail with the most robust
cores.
In addition, light southwesterly 850mb flow may pin the Atlantic
sea- breeze along the coast. While models depict convective
initiation occurring late (4-6pm) in the afternoon with the sea-
breeze making further progress inland, variations in this
evolution may support a non- zero (<2%) conditional tornado risk
as a corridor of enhanced bulk shear and SRH materializes on the
stable side of the sea-breeze boundary. The best dynamics given
the flow regime for this would be across Palm Beach County and
northern Broward County. HREF`s LPMM also hints at the potential
of a few localized swaths of 1-2" of rainfall with afternoon
thunderstorms today. This could materialize if a storm is pinned
along a boundary as mid-level flow remains light. This could
create some nuisance flooding if it occurs over an urban area.
Light and variable winds tonight into early Tuesday as saturation at
the surface may set the stage for additional round of patchy fog
across inland areas. Once the sun rises, flow will remain light and
variable with the Atlantic and Gulf breezes forecast to push inland
during the late morning/early afternoon hours and favor any isolated
shower and storm coverage over the central interior. However, less
moisture will be available (abundantly dry air aloft) for showers to
form, meaning that any development would be expected to be shallow
and weak in nature.
Temperatures for today and tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 80s
across the region, with the lower end being observed near the
coastlines. Portions of the interior could approach 90 as well
tomorrow. Heat indices (feels-like temperatures) may reach the
middle to upper 90s each afternoon across inland communities.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
For the latter half of the week and moving into the weekend,
expansive mid-level ridging and surface high pressure over the
western Atlantic will continue to strengthen and preside over the
southeastern CONUS. This will most likely inhibit convection in
South Florida. There will be some remaining moisture lingering in
the region and the formation of the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes.
However, it will not likely be enough to overcome the increasingly
dry air aloft, as well as an intrusion of drier air closer to the
surface. Thus, model guidance continues to forecast very low rain
chances throughout the long term period. Winds will increase by mid-
week, due to the strengthening high, which will interact with low
pressure over the Great Lakes region. With a tighter pressure
gradient, these breezy conditions will likely to last into the end
of the week and potential for gusts up to 20KT.
High temperatures each day are expected in the mid 80s near the
coasts and the upper 80s to lower 90s for the interior sections.
With lingering moisture mid-week, there will be potential for
heat indices reaching the mid-90s across the SW Florida on
Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 758 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
SHRA/TSRA through 01-02Z possible for some of the Atl terminals.
Then VFR should prevail through the rest of the forecast period.
Winds become light after 02-03Z, then generally SE around 10kt
after 15Z. Only APF will see westerly flow with Gulf breezes
developing after 16Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Generally benign conditions to start the week through Tuesday with
winds and seas gradually remaining below 10kts and 2 feet or less
respectively. A few showers and storms remain possible with
locally higher seas and waves in and around this activity.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1204 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
A moderate risk for rip currents along the east coast continues
today, but as winds continue to weaken this risk will diminish
heading into Tuesday. An elevated risk is likely to return to the
east coast later in the weak as onshore winds increase again.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 72 86 74 84 / 20 10 0 0
West Kendall 69 89 71 85 / 10 10 0 0
Opa-Locka 70 89 73 84 / 20 10 0 0
Homestead 71 86 73 85 / 10 10 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 71 84 73 83 / 20 10 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 71 85 73 83 / 30 10 0 0
Pembroke Pines 72 89 74 84 / 20 10 0 0
West Palm Beach 69 86 73 84 / 30 10 0 0
Boca Raton 70 86 73 85 / 30 10 0 0
Naples 69 85 70 88 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Redman
UPDATE/AVIATION...17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1033 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Forecast is progressing as expected this evening with cooling
temperatures and northerly winds in the wake of a departing cold
front. Clouds remain overnight, but as drier air arrives, expect
gradual clearing mid- morning to mid- day on Tuesday with a mostly
clear, sunny afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Key messages:
1. Cold front and associated scattered showers will move through
later this afternoon and evening.
2. Dry conditions then prevail through the rest of the short term,
with warmer temperatures expected tomorrow as well.
Discussion:
Much of the CWA is in a lull in the rain at the moment as showers
and thunderstorms from last night have pushed northeast of most
locations. However, high res guidance continues to indicate that an
additional line of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop along the cold front that has yet to move through. This
doesn`t seem unreasonable as an upper level shortwave will swing
northeast across the forecast area this afternoon, with the left
exit region of a jet streak transiting the southern half of the CWA
as this happens. And you can already see some weak returns forming
along the front to the west of the plateau, so I think the forecast
is in good shape in this regard. And I think the PoPs from largely
the 12z HRRR that I used for the morning update should hold up ok as
well so no additional adjustments seem necessary there. These
shouldn`t be severe, but some gusty winds or even some small hail
would not be out of the question.
All rainfall should be east of the forecast area before midnight
tonight, leaving dry conditions in place for the remainder of the
short term period. Despite some post-frontal cold air advection,
tomorrow should be warmer due to gradually thinning cloud cover the
beginning of more substantive height rises aloft. More significant
warming will be seen in the long term period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Key Messages:
1. Warm weather pattern for the second half of the week with
temperatures 15+ degrees above normal.
2. Gusty winds for Wednesday through Thursday especially for the far
east Tennessee Mountains and Foothills.
3. Frontal boundary may move across the Tennessee valley and
southern Appalachians next weekend bringing another round of
widespread storms.
Discussion:
Middle portion of the work week will be highlighted by rapidly warming
temperatures and breezy conditions Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures:
Temperatures will remain mild on Tuesday with the slow clearing of
the skies, but by Wednesday increasing ridging in the low levels and
southerly flow near the surface will combine to drive temperatures
above the 80 degree mark starting Tuesday. These conditions for warm
weather will continue through the rest of the week as the incoming
frontal boundary out of the midwest rams into the strong high
pressure over the Atlantic/southeast US. Models continue to have the
eastern Tennessee valley remain south of the front with temperatures
in the upper 80`s Thursday through Saturday. Attached to the bottom
of the AFD are the record high temperatures which may be in jeopardy
a few days this week. Biggest question remains on the location of
the stalled out boundary and how much cloud coverage it throws out,
which would inhibit daytime heating.
Winds:
On Wednesday a strengthening low level jet will move into Middle TN
and central Kentucky. This will increase southerly to southeasterly
winds in the eastern Tennessee Valley and could result in a mountain
wave event Wednesday into early Thursday. With the jet remaining a
decent way off to our west we aren`t anticipating the extreme winds,
but winds in excess of 40mph will be possible in the typically gusty
locations of the southern Appalachians.
Rain and Storms:
Still plenty of question marks with the possibility of showers and
storms for the back half of the work week and into the weekend. Like
everything else with this forecast it all depends on the location of
the stalled boundary to our northwest. Locations along the northern
Cumberland Plateau could get several glancing blows from rounds of
storms on the southern edge of the boundary and see 2+ inches of
rain between Thursday and Sunday. Further south things are harder to
forecast as we could see diurnally driven storms with the very warm
temperatures, like we typically see in the middle of summer. These
are harder to forecast until the CAMs are able to resolve this time
frame, but areas north of Interstate 40/Interstate 81 have the
highest chances for rainfall and most QPF.
Front will finally get a shove east of the Appalachian mountains
likely on Sunday which will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms before we clear out and cool down to start the
upcoming work week.
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures
Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-02 88(2012) 88(1940) 88(2010) 87(2012)
04-03 89(1999) 85(1946) 82(2012) 87(1963)
04-04 88(1934) 87(1934) 83(2023) 84(1999)
04-05 89(2023) 89(2023) 86(2023) 88(2023)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Cold front is moving across the area with a line of showers, and a
few thunderstorms, moving east of the region. This convection may
impact TRI over the next hour, but it will quickly move east. MVFR
cigs expected to develop overnight at TYS and TRI with 3k-3500 ft
VFR cigs expected to prevail at CHA. As drier air arrives,
clearing sky conditions are expected by Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 71 54 81 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 68 49 81 / 10 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 40 68 48 80 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 65 48 76 / 30 0 0 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CD
AVIATION...JB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
555 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet afternoon and evening today with mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies.
- Showers move in late tonight into early tomorrow morning
(30-40%) across our north, then gradually overspread the area
during the day Tuesday. Windy conditions are expected with a
Wind Advisory in effect from 11 am to 8 pm Tuesday.
- PoPs increase for the late afternoon and evening hours
(60-90%). A slight risk (15% chance) of severe weather exists
across southern and eastern portions of the forecast area
Tuesday afternoon/evening. Large hail and strong winds are the
main threats.
- Showers clear out by Wednesday afternoon, with low end PoPs
(15-30% chance) for Thursday. More PoPs are possible Friday
and Saturday (20- 40% chance).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tuesday Night/
Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies continue this afternoon as a sfc
ridge of high pressure extends southward from the Manitoba area into
the Dakotas and eastern Nebraska. The ridge will continue pushing
eastward resulting in light winds, leading to a rather pleasant
afternoon/evening. Lows tonight will be in the mid 30s north to near
40 across our south.
By the late afternoon into the evening hours, we will start to see a
developing sfc low across eastern Colorado induced by a deepening
500 mb trough. As the sfc low begins to deepen, it will induce a 30-
45 kt LLJ across a large swath of central Nebraska. A stream of 1000-
850 mb Gulf moisture will work in tandem with the increasing
synoptic scale forcing for ascent and warm air advection to generate
scattered rain showers around 6z Tuesday (30-40%), beginning across
northwest portions of the forecast area. A few rumbles of thunder
are not out of the question either, as some of the CAMs hint at
around 100-200 J/kg across our far northern counties. Scattered rain
showers will become more numerous across the forecast area during
the morning hours (20-40% chance) as forcing increases with the
deepening sfc low. Winds will also be on the increase, with BUFKIT
soundings showing the potential to mix anywhere from 35 to 40 kts of
momentum downward from the 850 mb LLJ, and also a tightening
pressure gradient observed as the low deepens. Some uncertainty does
exist with regards to mixing potential, given the existing
clouds/rain/low level warm air advection. However, any mixing down
of winds from this strong LLJ will result in windy conditions around
around 30-35 mph for a large chunk of the day with gusts up to 45
mph possible. Thus, have collaborated with TOP and issued a Wind
Advisory across portions of eastern Nebraska and west
central/southwest Iowa until 8 pm Tuesday evening. Highs Tuesday
will be slightly warmer owing to the warm air advection, with the
mid 50s across the north to mid 60s across the south.
Our attention then turns to the late afternoon and evening hours, as
instability will be on the increase and depending on model choice,
anywhere from 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE will stream into portions of
the forecast area. How far north this axis of MUCAPE will travel
will remain highly dependent on the low track and how far north the
actual warm sector will make it. However, much of this instability
will be elevated, with the better surface based CAPE located farther
south into the Kansas area. Shear will be plentiful, with values of
50 kts or great observed, and some low level turning is also
observed when looking at hodographs, so elevated supercells may
develop. Along with the low track, differences in initiation of
convection and its placement continue to be seen with CAM guidance.
The 18z HRRR run has shown initiation a little earlier around
the 19- 20z timeframe and farther west into central Nebraska,
compared to the 6 and 12z runs. Other CAMs like the FV3 and RAP
tend to hold off initiation until around 00z into our forecast
area. Regardless of CAM choice, there does seem to be good
agreement among models that storms will congeal into a line/MCS
feature sometime around the 3 to 4z timeframe and then track
eastward. PoP chances for Tuesday evening are anywhere from
60-90%
Given the aforementioned severe potential, the Storm Prediction
Center continues to highlight portions of central into eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa in a slight risk (15% chance) of severe
weather for Tuesday. The main threats with this activity continue to
be large hail, and strong wind gusts as storms begin to merge into
more of a linear structure. Given instability will be elevated,
tornado potential is rather low despite the aforementioned low level
turning. Wet bulb zero heights seem to just barely meet criteria as
well, which could impact the hail potential of storms.
.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/
Showers will linger into the early morning hours Wednesday, and
should exit the area by Wednesday afternoon with gradual clearing.
Highs Wednesday will be in the low 50s north to low 60s across our
far south. Cloud cover will be on the increase for Thursday as
another mid-level shortwave materializes over the Colorado area and
ejects eastward. The NBM brings in some low end PoPs across our far
south late Thursday evening at around 15-30%. Southwesterly flow
aloft will continue through Friday, with subtle shortwaves riding
this flow, leading to continued PoP chances (20-40%) through early
Saturday. Subtle model differences are observed at this time
regarding placement of upper level features, however, and this may
result in shifts of PoP coverage and intensity as we head into the
weekend timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight into Tuesday
morning with an increasing chance for MVFR ceilings developing
at KOFK toward the end of the forecast period. The models
continue to indicate the development of widely scattered showers
late tonight into Tuesday morning with the best chance of
occurrence being at KOFK. Light and variable winds will switch
to southeast tonight before strengthening considerably on
Tuesday when gusts of 35-37 kt are likely.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ015-018-
032>034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>092.
IA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ043-055-
069-079-090.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Mead
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
939 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
All showers and thunderstorms have ended across the area. Still can`t
completely rule out an isolated shower or two later tonight as
the front sags into our area. The main concern for tonight remains
the potential for fog. Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery
shows a patch of low stratus and fog developing from Quincy and
Tallahassee to Moody AFB. Expect more fog development through the
night. Otherwise, adjusted temperatures a bit given current
observations, which resulted in needing to lower lows by a degree
or two.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
The severe weather threat should be ending this evening as the
squall line culprit exits to our east. Lingering showers with
rumbles of thunder are possible tonight as the associated front
makes its eastward push from the MS Valley. Hi-resolution models
like the HRRR show convective redevelopment over Apalachee Bay into
portions of the East FL Big Bend overnight, so slight-chance PoPs
(20-30%) are maintained in the forecast to account.
An extensive area of low stratus is then expected to blanket the
region late tonight with patches to areas of fog embedded. The
latter may be locally dense at times, particularly where it rained
the most. The front`s nocturnal passage will lead to somewhat of a
NW to SE gradient in low temperatures - ranging from upper 50s in
the Wiregrass to upper mid/upper 60s along/SE of a Panama City-
Tallahassee-Valdosta line.
Fair weather prevails tomorrow with fog/low stratus giving way to
partly cloudy skies mid to late morning. Forecast highs are in the
low 80s with decent early-April sunshine. An afternoon seabreeze
prompts some fair-weather cumulus spreading from the coast to the I-
10 corridor.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Fairly benign conditions are expected behind today`s cold front as
surface high pressure and upper level ridging settles over the
region. On Wednesday, southeasterly flow becomes established and
persists into the weekend. This will lead to dew points in the 60s
and muggy conditions prevailing. Although ridging is overhead and
subsidence will prohibit storm development, with PoPs near nil,
diurnal heating and the sea breeze may be able to squeeze out some
fairly local shortlived showers. Otherwise, our next frontal system
looks to approach the region late on Sunday into early next week.
There`s some model guidance along with CPC outlooks beyond the long
term that indicate a brief but sharp cool down in temperatures. Stay
tuned to for additional updates as we get closer to this weekend.
Expect daytime highs to increase from midweek into this weekend into
the mid 80s to low 90s. Expect overnight lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
The showers and storms are gone with clear skies moving in from
the west, which will lead to VFR conditions at all TAF sites for a
few hours. After sunset, MVFR to IFR ceilings are forecast to
develop and spread north across the region. Some guidance is
hinting at lower visibilities, especially for KTLH and KECP, so
have included some TEMPO groups for both those locations. Any low
ceilings/fog should dissipate by mid-morning tomorrow with VFR
conditions taking over again with a light southerly breeze.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
A line of showers and storms is currently moving across the NE Gulf
waters and is expected to be through by this evening. Winds and seas
will gradually decrease through Wednesday before picking back up as
southeasterly flow becomes established.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
The main concerns for tomorrow are fog/low stratus, followed by
pockets of low dispersions in the early afternoon. Weak southerly
flow is expected with an afternoon seabreeze developing. Dry
weather prevails the remainder of the work week, though min RH
stays healthily above critical thresholds thanks to continued
southerly flow. High afternoon dispersions are forecast Wednesday
and Thursday basically areawide.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 309 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Generally, around an inch and a half of rain is expected through the
next week, there are currently no flooding concerns.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 77 64 84 65 / 70 10 10 0
Panama City 74 65 79 67 / 80 10 0 0
Dothan 76 59 82 64 / 90 10 0 0
Albany 79 61 83 62 / 90 20 0 0
Valdosta 79 64 85 65 / 70 10 0 0
Cross City 78 68 83 63 / 30 10 10 0
Apalachicola 73 68 76 66 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ735.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Oliver