Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/31/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1053 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances through tonight into Monday as a
cold front approaches from the west. A few of these storms could be
severe. Dry high pressure returns Tuesday, resulting in well above
normal temperatures across the region late in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 10:15 PM EDT Sunday: We`ve still got a band of light to moderate
showers moving northward along and just north of the NC/SC border late
this evening. With little sfc-based instability still present, it is
doubtful that we`ll see anymore lightning tonight/overnight. Precip
coverage should continue to gradually dwindle over our area over the
next few hrs as the plume of deeper moisture moves further east. Any
lingering shower production will likely retreat to the SLY upslope
areas near the Escarpment while the convection associated with the
approaching cold front remains to our west. Hopefully areas around
the active fires will see some additional showers going into the
overnight.
Otherwise, for Monday, the larger-scale forcing looks adequate and
moisture deep enough to warrant PoPs ramping up into the likely to
categorical range by the afternoon. The latest near-term guidance
remains fairly stingy wrt pre-frontal precip coverage during the
morning hrs, especially outside of the mtns. Nonetheless, the central
and SW NC mtns and locations along the NC/TN border could get some
decent QPF thru the morning. Whether they see any lightning/thunder
that early looks unlikely. As for the severe potential with the main
line of convection that moves through during the afternoon and early
evening, our non-mtn zones remain under an Enhanced Risk area per SPC,
and our mtns are under a Slight Risk area. The main severe threat is
still damaging straight-line winds, with large hail being less likely.
In addition, brief tornadoes will be possible as well, especially over
our east and southeast zones. The latest CAMs still depict better storm
organization to our south and east as has been the case for several runs
now, but the HRRR does produce some fairly impressive-looking cells over
the I-77 corridor and our eastern-most zones. The main line of showers
and storms should move east of our CWA by roughly 00z, with a secondary
line of showers moving over the NC mtns during the evening hrs. This se-
condary line of showers should fizzle out as it moves east of the higher
terrain tomorrow night. High temps on Monday will top-out about 5 to 10
degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
1) Dry weather returns Tuesday with rain chances possible by midweek.
2) Above normal temperatures Thursday.
As of 155 PM Sunday: The cold front continues to move through the
area and should be crossing the CWA Monday night. After the FROPA,
high pressure returns and shunts rain chances on Tuesday. The
general synoptic flow turns more quasi-zonal into mid week before a
trough builds in across the Rockies and an amplifying ridge moves in
from the south. Previous forecasts had an area of low pressure
forming over the central CONUS and lifting northward, trailing a
cold front across the area. However, recent guidance from the
GFS/EURO both show a stout ridge expanding and persisting over the
area from about midweek onward. This is trending rainfall potential
even drier as the area of better lift/convergence is now off the NW
of the CWA. This does lower QPF response and PoPs down into the
slight chance range as confidence is decreasing for rain potential.
These height rises could shunt precip chances and bring temperatures
well above normal through the short term and into the next. One
positive note is southerly winds return Wednesday night and advect
more moisture, keeping RH values well above any critical levels.
Tuesday looks to be the driest day with RH values in the 25%-35%
range, but improving onward.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages
1) The forecast has trended drier, as a strong ridge builds across
the Southeast
2) Temperatures warm to well above normal through the period.
As of 200 PM Sunday: As was the case in the short term, guidance
from the GFS/EURO continue to trend toward an amplifying ridge over
the southeast through most of the forecast period. Southerly flow
remains dominate during the time, so moisture remains in the area.
The ridge axis pushes west a bit, shunting once again most of the
better precipitation chances off to the north. By Day 7, models hint
at the ridge starting to weaken, bringing back rain chances, but
this is highly uncertain since it`s a week away. Overall, guidance
continues to trend drier for the area, keeping needed rainfall away
once again. Given the moisture in the region, won`t rule out a few
scattered showers, so will keep slight chance PoPs for most of the
extended. Additionally, confidence is increasing that the area could
have temperatures in the upper 80s toward the end of the forecast
period depending on the strength of the building ridge. Overall,
expect well-above normal temperatures and little rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A fairly broad area of sct moderate to heavy
showers is currently moving NE across most of our non-mtn zones.
We`ve seen a handful of lightning strikes from this activity in
the vicinity of our Upstate terminals over the past few hrs, but
with instability diminishing going forward, we`ll likely only see
showers for the rest of tonight/overnight. Otherwise, most of this
precip activity should also move east of our fcst area over the next
few hrs as the plume of deeper moisture moves east. Most of the near-
term guidance continues to spread low clouds/IFR cigs across most of
our area by midnight or so and keeps them in place into the early
afternoon. There`s also a decent chance that at least the Upstate
sites will see LIFR cigs overnight and into the morning. The mtns
appear more likely to remain in the MVFR range, but there`s still
a decent chance that KAVL will see IFR cigs thru the morning hrs.
Otherwise, the main line of showers and thunderstorms is progged
to move thru our fcst area during the afternoon and should be east
of KCLT by roughly 23z. As such, I have a 3 to 4 hour window of
prevailing SHRA with a TEMPO for TSRA for most terminals with some
lingering VCSH to end the taf period. Winds will remain SLY into
the morning and gradually become more SSW and then SW (with low-end
gusts) as the day wears on and the main front moves thru.
Outlook: Drying is expected on Tuesday. Some sct showers and their
associated restrictions will be possible on Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...JPT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1118 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple rounds of showers, and some thunderstorms, are expected
into Monday. The greatest coverage for the area as a whole will
be from tonight into early Monday morning.
- There is an Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms
this evening into early Monday. Damaging winds are the main
threat, but an isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out.
- After briefly cooler temperatures Monday night into Tuesday,
temperatures return to above normal levels Wednesday into next
weekend.
- Parts of eastern Kentucky may see another round of strong to
severe storms Wednesday night.
- There is a strong signal for repeated rounds of heavy rain and
thunderstorms for the middle to latter parts of next week
across parts of the lower and middle Ohio River Valley. It is
unclear at this time how much of an increased flooding potential
extends into eastern Kentucky.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1118 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
Convection over central KY has congeal into a line with a history
of wind damage upstream. This line remains fairly well organized
with SPC mesoanalysis and RAP forecast as the line moves into the
CWA has 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE suggesting the line should
remain surface based into the CWA. Effective shear of 35 to 45KT
on average and western parts of the area effective SRH may reach
as high as 200 to 300 m2/s2. 0-3km shear vectors become more
parallel to the convection just west of Lake Cumberland at this
point and a little more favorably oriented further north in
Central KY. Damaging winds will remain the primary threat as the
line moves east, but any mergers into the line that may occur
could result in a brief spin up. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80 has
been issued for the entire CWA through 6 AM EDT on Monday.
UPDATE Issued at 845 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
At present, eastern KY was free of any shower or thunderstorm
activity though a line of convection extends from OH and southern
IN into parts of western KY down into MO and AR. There remains
some uncertainty as to how quickly the northern end of this line
may reach the CWA, however, it may arrive as early as 10 to 11 PM
near or northwest of I-64 and then later further south and east.
Made some adjustments to hourly pops, lowering them from the
previous forecast areawide over the next couple of hours, before
merging into the higher pops nearer to midnight and into the
overnight. As this line of storms arrives it will pose a risk of
mainly strong to damaging wind gusts.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 415 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
19Z sfc analysis shows a decent pressure gradient between low
pressure now entering the western portions of the Ohio Valley and
high pressure east of the Appalachians. This is supporting breezy
south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
across eastern Kentucky as well as propping up temperatures
despite the multiple layers of clouds. It is also helping to surge
more moisture into the boundary layer providing the fuel for
storms this evening and overnight. Currently, readings are topping
out in the low to mid 70s most places while the dewpoints have
breached the lower 60s west and are up to the mid 50s in the far
east. On radar, scattered activity of mostly showers continue
through the area while the biggest storms are pounding locations
just northwest of the state closer to the sfc low and its
developing, east-bound cold front.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are coming into
better agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict weak energy in mid-level southwest flow
passing through eastern Kentucky into the evening. This is before
the approach of a stronger trough at 5h punches into the Ohio
Valley with a core of energy that will strafe northern parts of
the state into the first half of the night. This initial trough
will send 5h height falls through eastern Kentucky after midnight
while fast southwest mid level flow continues. The trailing
impulses will then settle the larger trough through the state on
Monday - helped along by the placement of the right entrance
region of a strong 3h jet streak over our area from the winds in
the upper atmosphere racing southwest to northeast through the
Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes - along with another decent
wave of energy crossing the JKL CWA by 00Z Tuesday. This happens
in the fast mid level flow that becomes more zonal through the
night with ample lingering packets of energy to pass overhead.
The, now smaller, model spread aloft supported using the NBM as
the starting point for the forecast grids through the period. Did
make some adjustments mainly to incorporate the newest CAMs
guidance into the PoP and thunder grids through the first half of
the period.
Sensible weather features mainly scattered activity around eastern
Kentucky until later in the evening until the kinematics aloft
moves closer to our area. This will likely allow some of the
instability from the daytime heating to fade, but wind fields will
only get better for organized storms through the evening. The sfc
trough out ahead of a late arriving cold front is expected to
create a QLCS of storms that will drop southeast through eastern
Kentucky late this evening into the late night hours. We will
continue to need to monitor any discrete cells out ahead of this
line for rotation and potential tornados - especially in the
locations west of the I-75 and northwest of I-64 where the latest
HRRR runs suggest a couple of updraft helicity swaths are
possible from west to east through those areas this evening. The
main severe threat for the bulk of the area arrives with the
linear storms toward late evening in the northwest and spreading
southeast during the night. Potentially damaging wind gusts and a
possibility for spin-up, brief, tornados will accompany the
stronger storms in the line. Generally lighter and steadier
showers follow into dawn, held up a bit by a wave moving along the
front, for most places before ending from northwest to southeast
during the morning and into early afternoon on Monday. This will
also bring cooler conditions for the afternoon on westerly winds.
The cooling continue into the night where if we would see clearing
some frost may be possible - generally just for locations west of
I-75.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adjusting the PoPs per CAMs timing and placement through Monday
afternoon. Did not deviate too far from the NBM for temperatures
and dewpoints given the higher moisture content through the bulk
of the period followed by steady CAA.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
Tuesday morning, patchy frost may be present mainly west of the I-75
corridor. Otherwise, high pressure builds into the area through the
day, with dry conditions remaining across Eastern Kentucky up until
Wednesday morning.
Cold air advection will continue through Tuesday, keeping
temperatures seasonable, in the upper 50s to mid 60s from north to
south. During the day, a large scale 500-mb trough deepens over
western CONUS. From this an upper level low ejects out of The
Rockies into the Upper Great Lakes. Winds will likely veer, becoming
southerly through Wednesday. Eastern Kentucky will be in the warm
sector out ahead of the next approaching system mentioned above.
This will lead to continued warm air advecting in and temperatures
returning to 10-15 degrees above normal, in the upper 70s to low
80s. Clouds will increase through the day with a chance of off and
on showers through the day. Heading into the afternoon and evening
the attached cold front is modeled to extend from the Ohio Valley
down through the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Shower and
thunderstorm chances exist for the state, with the SPC having
Eastern Kentucky under a 15% a risk of severe weather. Breezy
conditions are possible Wednesday, with the NBM guidance showing
gusts around 30 mph. LREF 00Z ensemble data continues to have mean
wind gust of 40 mph, with the general spread between the 25th and
75th percentile being 35-45 mph. We`ll continue to monitor this
threat.
Deterministic models and ensembles have the front late Wednesday
becoming rather stationary over Kentucky and surrounding states
through Saturday. With precipitable water consistently modeled
between 1 and 1.5 inches each day, flooding could be a possibility.
The WPC has highlighted this threat with placing a portion of the
area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. For Thursday,
showers and thunderstorms continue across Eastern Kentucky. With the
lack of a progressing front and persistent rain, the WPC has put the
area under a slight risk and marginal risk for excessive rainfall.
Current guidance has this stationary boundary further west across
Western and Central Kentucky, and surrounding areas, which is why
that area is in a moderate risk for excessive rainfall. Temperatures
will likely remain 10-15 degrees above the climatological averages,
in the upper 70s to low 80s.
During the day Thursday, an area of low pressure rides the lee side
of a ridge, into the deep trough over Western CONUS. While being
slow to propagate downstream, it will eventually be what moves the
stationary front away from the state, later Sunday or Monday. With
winds currently expected to veer Saturday into Sunday from a
southwest wind to a northwest wind, cold air advection may temper
temperatures Sunday, rising into the low 60s to upper 60s going
north to south.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VFR was observed at issuance and VFR is forecast to prevail for
the fist several hours of the period. As the night progresses and
lower levels moisten further and a cold front arrives toward 12Z,
prevailing MVFR should begin to develop in the higher terrain
near the KY/VA/TN border area near KI35 and K1A6 as well as from
near KSYM to KLOZ and points west. However, some reductions to MVFR
or even IFR with wind gusts in excess of 30KT are possible with a
leading line or broken line convection arriving as early as 02Z
to 04Z at KSYM and then between 03Z and 06Z for KJKL, KSJS, KLOZ,
and KSME. MVFR or IFR ceilings should prevail during the least 12
hours of the period near and behind the cold front under showers
and thunderstorms, though thunderstorm chances diminish through
around 18Z.
Winds outside of storms should average south to southwest at 5 to
10KT through 12Z, with some gusts to around 20KT at times. The
main cold front will pass between about 12Z and 20Z, with winds
becoming west and then northwest at generally 5 to 10KT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1041 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Increasing chances for severe thunderstorms overnight into
Monday morning.
- Dense sea fog across the inland lakes, bays, and near shore
coastal waters to spread inland up to I-10.
- Very Warm, dry and breezy conditions for the middle part of the
week until the next significant chance for showers and
thunderstorms at the end of the week into the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Latest wx map shows cold front advancing across Northeast Texas
into Southern Arkansas. Ahead of the front, strong to severe thunderstorms
has developed across Northeast Texas, with large hail noted. 00z
HRRR and blended NBM guidance showing this area of thunderstorms
to expand along and ahead of the front as it moves southeast across
the area. With this, the severe thunderstorm risk for Central and
Southern Louisiana has increased overnight. Particularly troubling
is the much increased severe wind threat for Central Louisiana,
where SPC now has an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe thunderstorms,
and the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) further down to the I-10
corridor. Other updates include an inland Dense Fog Advisory
(matching the Marine Dense Fog Advisory) roughly along and south
of the I-10 corridor to the coast.
08/DML
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
A rather warm and humid day for March across the forecast area
with air temperatures in the low to mid 80s with dew points in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Despite an increase in moisture and
instability with daytime heating, cap has held so far with no
significant convection currently over the forecast area.
We will be watching closely to see if any convection can break the
cap before sunset as good CAPE values, to go along with favorable
mid lapse rates and Downdraft CAPE could mean the potential for a
severe storm or two with large hail and damaging wind hazards.
Short wave energy moving out of the Rockies will phase with a long
wave trough to kick a weak cold front into the forecast area
during the overnight and through on Monday morning. Very good
moisture values pooling along the frontal boundary with PWAT at or
above 1.5 inches which is over the 90th percentile of SPC climo.
Frontal lift should be enough to get a line of convection going
ahead of the front. The best lift and energy, along with
severe weather parameters will be north and to the east of the
forecast area. However, decent CAPE values remain in place
overnight with favorable lapse rates and shear, that there will be
a low end risk of severe storms, mainly north of the I-10
corridor, from large hail or damaging winds, although a quick
spin up tornado can not be ruled out with any bow echo features
that may form. With the high moisture values and flow becoming
parallel to the frontal boundary, some quick high rainfall rates
will also bring a low end risk of heavy rainfall.
Also, near the coast, some patchy dense sea fog may move inland,
although confidence in just how far north it can get before
feeling the frontal lift and just become a low cloud deck, is low
that a dense fog advisory was only issued for the marine areas at
this time.
Drier and more stable air will move in behind the front for Monday
afternoon with dry and warm conditions for the remainder of the
period.
Rua
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Upper level ridge will form over the Gulf and into the forecast
area by mid week, with a potent upper level low being cut off over
the four corners. This pattern looks to keep any frontal systems
stalled to the north through Thursday with any convection
confined to the isolated diurnal daytime heating variety.
It will be quite warm and becoming humid in the middle to late
week period as the upper level ridge holds and south winds come in
off the Gulf. A rather deep low pressure system moving across the
Plains will make for quite breezy conditions on Wednesday with the
potential for a wind advisory.
Toward next weekend, the ridge begins to break down with the upper
level low opening up and moving toward the region that will likely
increase rain chances.
Rua
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Lowering ceilings to MVFR expected after 01z for southern terminals
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA, gradually lowering to IFR by 04-05z. For BPT
possibly LCH, even lower ceilings/visibilities possible between
08-12z if the marine fog layer moves further inland. Still questionable
at this time. Other issue will be area/line of SHRA/TSRA moving
across the area after 06z for Central and Southern Louisiana. Best
chances are for AEX between 08-12z, 10-14z for LCH/LFT/ARA. Lower
chances for BPT around 20% will keep just VCSH at this time. Frontal
passage and lifting ceilings expected between 16-18z across the
area.
08/DML
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Satellite and web cams show that the dense sea fog has lifted for
now. However, southerly flow will continue tonight and allow lower
70s dew points to settle over water temperatures in the upper 60s
to lower 70s, and therefore, another round of dense sea fog will
be possible and a marine dense fog advisory has been issued for
the nearshore waters and coastal lakes bays from 9 pm this evening
to 10 am Monday morning.
A weak cold front/dry boundary will move into the coastal waters
on Monday morning. There is still some question how far through
the coastal waters it can get before stalling. However, it looks
like enough northerly flow and drier can move out into the near
shore waters to break up any sea fog and lessen the potential for
Monday night.
Southerly winds will quickly return on Tuesday as high pressure
behind the frontal boundary moves off to the east, and low
pressure forms east of the Rockies.
The low pressure system is expected to deepen as it moves across
the Plains increasing the gradient over the northwest Gulf.
Therefore, southerly winds are expected to increase and become
quite gusty with building seas. A small craft advisory will likely
be needed on Wednesday.
Rua
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 64 80 58 82 / 90 30 10 10
LCH 69 83 65 80 / 70 30 0 0
LFT 71 83 65 81 / 70 70 10 10
BPT 69 85 67 81 / 40 10 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for LAZ073-074-152-
241>243-252>254.
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for TXZ615-616.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ430-432-435-436-
450-452-455.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
849 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 845 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
-Severe thunderstorms will move through the Mid-South this evening
through the early morning hours on Monday. Damaging winds,
tornadoes, large hail and flash flooding will be possible.
-Dry and cool conditions are forecast Monday and Tuesday.
-An active weather pattern will reemerge Wednesday and persist
through next weekend. Multiple rounds of strong thunderstorms
will produce potential for significant flooding, especially along
and north of Interstate 40. In addition, thunderstorms may bring
damaging winds and tornadoes. By the end of next weekend, 7 to
12 inches of rainfall is expected north of Interstate 40, with 3
to 7 inches to the south.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Severe thunderstorms continue to track east across portions of
east Arkansas and west Tennessee. Have cleared portions of
northeast Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel from Tornado Watch
72. Added counties in west Tennessee to Tornado Watch 78 which
expires at 3:00 AM CDT Monday morning. Remainder of forecast looks
good.
ARS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Primary concern remains short term severe weather threat.
Several hours of clearing over AR have allowed surface-based CAPE
to build in excess of 3000 J/kg, as measured by the 18Z LZK
sounding. This sounding also showed an elevated mixed layer (EML),
yielding very steep midlevel lapse rates of 9.3 C/km. Deep moist
convection has been capped thus far by the EML, but this capping
should weaken as the EML translates east in tandem with an
approaching midlevel trough. The LZK sounding measured 0-3km SRH
of 180 m2/s2, but this should increase with the development of a
45KT low level jet over the delta after 22Z. This low level jet
will largely be responsible for Energy Helicity Index (EHI) and
Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) ramping up over delta by
sunset. 18Z HRRR depicts the STP increasing to 5-8 over the
Memphis metro between 8-10PM CDT / 01-03Z. STP values this high
indicate a potential for strong, long-track tornadoes.
By midnight, convection mode will transition to quasi-linear,
as a midlevel shortwave lifts eastward into the Ohio River
Valley. Orientation of the QLCS will roughly orient parallel to
I-40, as it sinks south into north MS after midnight. Wind threat
will likely increase over north MS during the overnight, with
the approach of an upstream shortwave trough from TX. Post-
midnight HRRR hodographs over northeast MS indicate a likelihood
of embedded supercells and tornadoes through 3-4 AM.
Relatively quiet zonal flow aloft will prevail Monday and Tuesday.
By Tuesday night, low level return flow will develop and intensify
under increasingly diffluent flow aloft. By Wednesday afternoon,
a longwave trough will occupy the western two-thirds of the CONUS.
The Midsouth will remain under southwest flow aloft, situated
between the longwave trough and a 589 DM 500mb Bermuda high.
This setup will prevail through late week, slowly becoming more
amplified. A belt of midlevel Pacific tropical moisture will
combine with surface dewpoints in the 60s to produce PWAT values
around 2 inches over the Midsouth, at the maximum value of
climatology. A quasi-stationary surface front will extend across
AR into the lower OH River Valley, oscillating as a series of
shortwaves eject from the western trough. Multiple rain events
will combine to produce weekly rainfall totals of 7 to 12 inches
north of I-40, and 3 to 7 inches to the south. In addition to a
river and areal flooding threat, damaging winds will be possible.
In particular, Wednesday stands out, with LREF mean surface based
CAPE of 2000 J/kg and mean 0-3 km SRH of 270 m2/s2 along and south
of I-40.
By late next weekend into early the following week, a deepening
northern branch longwave trough over the eastern CONUS will
displace the tropical moisture fetch and allow a relatively strong
surface cold front to pass. The cooler and drier conditions will
prevail for several days as we wrap up the first week of April.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
A line of showers and thunderstorms will sweep across the Midsouth
this evening, lasting through the overnight hours. 01-03Z at JBR,
04z at MKL and MEM, and 07-08z at TUP looks to the the greatest
impact although storms could develop ahead of the main line.
Showers will likely continue behind the line. IFR to MVFR cigs are
likely through the night. South to southwest winds around 15 kts
tonight will shift from the northwest before sunrise at around
10kts. VFR conditions will prevail at all sites after 15z
tomorrow.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
915 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure resides offshore ahead of the next cold front to
move through the area on Monday night with showers and a few
storms. High pressure will build in behind this system Tuesday
lasting into late- week. Another front will impact the region
next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 915 PM Sun...Moisture depth continues to increase
overnight ahead of the approaching cold front as evidenced by
the 00Z MHX RAOB. Srly SFC flow off the Atlantic is producing
Td`s>60. Weak shortwave will ride up the SC coast and towards
the NC coast by late tonight. Currently, isolated shower
activity has developed over the near shore water south of Cape
Hatteras and was tracking along or just inland from the coast at
times this evening. Therefore have 20-30% PoPs to this evenings
forecast. Additional; shower chances ramp up again after
midnight, and esp towards daybreak with best coverage along the
coast. Instability will also be in place, though in elevated
form, so thunderstorms are possible, but will remain below
severe levels. Best chances for storms will be east of Hwy 17,
and esp nearer the Crystal Coast newrd through the OBX zones.
Cont very warm for late March, MinTs mid-60s most. Up-50s NOBX.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Sun...For the first part of Mon, the
aforementioned sfc low will cont offshore of the NC coast
bringing ongoing shower and thunderstorm chances, highest
concentration along the coast. Lots of questions concerning
severe risk late in the day but especially Mon night. Current
thinking is that morning activity will delay sfc heating for
ENC, with cloudy skies lingering through early to mid afternoon.
In fact, the afternoon hours should be mainly on the dry side,
with large scale ascent and storm chances delayed until after
around 7-8pm. For this reason, thinking is that severe threat
will be tempered as later arrival means less instability to work
with. This along with a marine layer in place on the coast will
relegate best svr threat west of Highway 17. Svr probs from NCAR
HRRR neural network indicate main severe threat would be winds with
probs as high as (10-15%), with hail and tor threat quite low (<5%).
This jives with ECM EFI probs for CAPE/Shear overlap indices
indicative of a lower end severe threat. Will have to monitor later
forecasts, as more sunshine tomorrow afternoon may lead to more
instability and a somewhat higher severe potential for tomorrow
evening. Highs will be a bit lower due to the cloud cover, with
readings generally 75-80 interior, with low 70s coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Cooler high pressure builds back in behind
frontal system Tuesday and Wednesday before the heat returns
late in the week. Another front will impact the region next
weekend.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Rain expected to push offshore by the
early Tuesday. Cooler and drier conditions are expected behind
the front Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds back in
form the north. Highs expected to be on the cooler side for
Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s
inland (low 60s beaches) on Tuesday and low 60s to low 70s Wed.
Thursday600 through Sunday...High pressure will strengthen
offshore late week, with a backdoor front likely impacting the
area late this weekend. Return flow will allow temps to soar
well above normal Thu and Fri...with highs climbing well into
the 80s inland (potentially reaching as high as 90 on Friday)
and mid to upper 70s along the beaches. Still some uncertainty
with frontal boundary likely impacting the area next
weekend...potentially pushing southward into portions of the
area Sat then lifting back northward before pushing through the
area late weekend and early next week as strengthening sfc low
moves through the Mid-Atlantic. Will keep slight chance to
chance pops over the weekend with slightly cooler temps.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Mon/...
As of 600 PM Sun...VFR initially, but deteriorating conditions
are expected late this evening. SSWerly winds ~10kt with gusts
approaching but remaining under 20kt through early this evening.
CIGs begin lowering late tonight as lower atms moistens
considerably and disturbance works northward off the coast.
MVFR CIGs overspread the region from SW to NE after midnight
tonight with showers encroaching upon the coast in the early
morning hours, with a 3-5 hr period of IFR cond for Mon
morning, rising back to MVFR mid to late morning. Then a brief
period of VFR is expected from around 20Z until 00Z before the
next batch of showers and storms with the front move through Mon
night. Best chance for rain late tonight and early Mon will be
KEWN and KOAJ, but can`t rule out ocnl rain showers further west
during the morning as well. There also may be a rumble of
thunder or two.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Sub-VFR conditions expected Monday night
coinciding with the best rain chances, with the potential for
sct thunderstorms as well. Some storms may be strong to severe,
with the threats for damaging winds, large hail, and an
isolated tornado. The cold front will move through late Monday
night and early Tue. Sub-VFR cigs may linger through most of Tue
before likely returning to VFR Tue night.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Mon/...
As of 915 PM Sun... No changes to previous thinking. Shower
activity swill inc in coverage later tonight, especially near
GStream, and spread northward into the nearshore waters and
Pamlico Sound towards daybreak. Some sct thunderstorms will
accompany the rain. Srly winds generally around 15 kt with gusts
upwards of around 20 kt through tonight and into Mon, inc to 25
kt over the gulf waters Mon afternoon. For Mon night, have
added Pamlico Sound to the SCA suite for winds >=25kt.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Sun...SSW winds will peak at 20-30 kt Mon night
ahead of an approaching cold front. A few gusts to gale force
will be possible across the outer central waters Mon night. SCAs
now up for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. The front will
push through the waters early Tue morning, with winds becoming
N-NW 10-20 kt behind the front. Winds shift to E-ENE 10-20 kt
Wed. High pressure will strengthen offshore Thu with modest
return flow redeveloping, SSW 10-20 kt. Seas peak Monday night
at 6-10 ft, and then slowly subside to 4-7 ft Tue and 3-5 ft Wed
and Thu.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for
AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for
AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/TL/CEB
SHORT TERM...TL/CEB
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...JME/TL/ZC
MARINE...JME/TL/ZC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
628 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Monday will be pleasant with light winds as high temperatures
reach the 40s to 50s under partly cloudy skies.
- Next storm system arrives Tuesday (30-60% PoP chances) and continues
into Wednesday (widespread 60-90% PoP chances). A slight risk
of severe weather (15% chance) across south central into
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
- Benign weather returns for Thursday with next round of PoPs
late Friday into Saturday (15-30% chance).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
.SHORT TERM.../Today through Monday Night/
A dreary day continues this afternoon as periods of drizzle, light
rain, and even some snow showers persist. 20z upper air analysis
shows the 850 mb low now positioned over northeast Iowa, with north
northwesterly flow behind the low across eastern Nebraska. Weak
omega between the sfc to around 800 mb or so within a saturated
layer is driving much of the aforementioned shower/drizzle activity,
as seen from RAP cross sections and soundings. The RAP and NAM Nest
seemed to be the most aggressive with these light showers/drizzle
early this morning, keeping them in our forecast area through the
late afternoon hours before exiting east, while other CAMs seem to
be more muted with the showery output. As the sfc low pushes farther
east toward the Great Lakes area late this afternoon and evening, it
will drag along the remaining wrap around moisture with it. Sfc
ridging will set in behind this low during the evening hours, which
will help scour out any remaining moisture and limit shower/drizzle
coverage. Did slightly lower highs today from NBM guidance, given
that stratus will linger today during peak heating time with weak
cold air advection behind the low, resulting in highs in the upper
30s north to mid 40s across the south. Winds will be breezy today
from the northwest at 15-20 mph with some gusts up to 30 mph. Lows
tonight reach the upper 20s north to near freezing across the south.
With the sfc ridging trekking eastward, expect to see pleasant
conditions during the daytime Monday. Winds will be light and
variable with high temperatures reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s
under partly cloudy skies. Ridging will depart the area by Monday
evening ahead of our next system.
.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Saturday/
A 500 mb shortwave is expected to deepen and amplify Monday evening
across the Colorado/Rockies area. As the trough strengths, it will
induce a sfc low over eastern Colorado. By early Tuesday morning,
synoptic scale forcing for ascent coupled with low level warm air
advection and a 40-50 kt LLJ pumping in additional Gulf moisture
will lead to widespread PoPs (30-60% chance) for the forecast area.
At this time, rain appears to be the most likely precipitation type,
but a brief rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out across our far north
again given low temperatures are forecast to drop to the low to mid
30s there early Tuesday morning. Winds Tuesday will be gusty, given
the tightening pressure gradient associated with the deepening sfc
low and the potential to mix up to 850 mb where the 40-50 kt LLJ is.
Have collaborated with neighboring offices to slightly boost wind
speeds Tuesday with blend of NBM/NBM90th.
By Tuesday afternoon and evening, the sfc low is expected to be
located somewhere along the central Nebraska/central Kansas border.
Model discrepancies are evident at this time, however, as the
NAM and GFS tend to push the low center into south central
Nebraska, while the ECMWF shows the low center farther south
into Kansas by 00z Wednesday. Instability will be on the
increase as well, with models showing a stream of MUCAPE around
1,000-1,500 J/kg entering eastern Nebraska. How far north this
stream of instability will travel will be highly dependent on
where the low tracks and how far north the warm sector may make
it. BUFKIT soundings show much of this instability remaining
elevated, but with 0-6 km shear being at 50 kts or greater and
decent directional shear seen from hodographs, severe weather
with a few elevated supercells is certainly plausible. The 12z
NAM Nest is already hinting at severe convection forming towards
the end of its model run with a few UH tracks.
For this forecast package, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined
portions of south central into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa in
a slight risk of severe weather. At this time, large hail appears to
be the main threat, although a strong wind gust isn`t totally out of
the question owing to the presence of the aforementioned 40-50 kt
LLJ and downdrafts pushing this momentum downward. NBM currently has
PoPs Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning at 60-90%, with
PoPs exiting the area by Wednesday evening. Potential rainfall
totals for this system are anywhere from around a quarter inch
across northeast Nebraska to as much as an inch across our far
southern service area.
Thursday will see a sfc high move from the Saskatchewan/Manitoba
area southward toward South Dakota. This will result in fairly
benign weather Thursday with partly to mostly cloudy skies. A weak
shortwave passing through late Thursday leads to some very low end
(less than 15%) chances for precipitation. Model consensus begins to
diverge as we head into Friday with differing solutions on the
placement and timing of mid to upper level features. The NBM tries
to bring in some PoPs (15-30% chance) across our far south late
Friday through Saturday night, but confidence in occurrence and
placement is low at this time due to the diverging model
solutions.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
MVFR ceilings expected to linger early in the period, but are
expected to scatter out from north to south from around 05Z
onward. Some additional 2000-3000 ft clouds could sneak into
OFK Monday afternoon, but kept FEW to SCT for now. Otherwise,
expect northwest winds with a few gusts around 20 kts this
evening to lighten up and become more northeasterly to easterly
during the day Monday.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...CA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
926 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 902 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
- Severe thunderstorms are a threat tonight into early Monday
morning with a level 3 out of 5 risk across the area. Damaging
winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all possible. The greatest
risk for tornadoes and large hail is west of I-65.
- Flooding and severe thunderstorms will be possible mid to late
week with a series of weather systems to impact the area. The
flooding could become significant by late week with some areas
possibly exceeding 5 inches of rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 902 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
A tornado watch is currently in effect for most of Middle
Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau. A line of storms has
crossed into our northwest counties, and everything seems to be
consistent with what was forecast earlier regarding timing and
impacts. The storms have formed just ahead of a cold front that
will come through the mid state later tonight and early Monday.
Rain and storm chances will linger into the Monday, but we do not
expect any severe impacts beyond 12Z. Obviously, cooler air will
fill in behind the front. Tomorrow`s max temps will only be in the
60s, and several spots will drop into the 30s tomorrow night,
although freezing temps appear unlikely. Temps will make a nice
recovery on Tuesday as ridge of high pressure slides across the
region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 902 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Wednesday and Wednesday night will bring our next storm chances,
and it already appears that Middle Tennessee is in for more severe
weather with this next active weather system. The SPC currently
has all of Middle Tennessee in a 15% hatched area for day 4, with
a 30% hatched are covering roughly the northwest 1/3 of the mid
state. But this is just the opening salvo. This boundary is likely
to become quasi-stationary just to the northwest of Middle
Tennessee and will allow a series of waves to train through the
region so that some hefty rainfall totals look to build up which
very well may lead to flooding. While it isn`t apparent that a
significant severe threat will persist beyond Wednesday night,
there will be an ongoing flooding threat. At this time, QPF totals
from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday range from maybe 1.5"
along the Cumberland Plateau, to around 4" for Nashville Metro, to
7+ inches around Clarksville and Land-between-the-Lakes -- areas
that have already been heavily impacted by significant rainfall
during the past several weeks. Even larger QPF totals are showing
up further upstream. Should the aforementioned boundary shift a
little to the east, it could have serious consequences for an even
larger portion of Middle Tennessee.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
It`s going to be an active night for convection across Middle
Tennessee. Severe storms are ongoing over extreme southeast MO and
eastern AR, and are due to arrive in Middle Tennessee beginning
around 02Z with slow eastward progress throughout the late evening
and overnight. We have used the 22Z HRRR for timing of the
expected storms. There hasn`t been a great deal of change with the
forecast, so there is reasonably good confidence in the timing of
the TEMPO groups in the 00Z TAFs. Since all of our terminals are
under an enhanced risk of severe storms, have included higher wind
gusts within the TEMPO period. There is also a hail probability,
but not enough of a probability to warrant mention in the TAFs.
Once the storms depart, expect low ceilings to fill in behind the
surface boundary for much of the day on Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 56 66 42 71 / 90 50 0 0
Clarksville 51 61 40 68 / 90 10 0 0
Crossville 58 67 37 68 / 90 80 10 0
Columbia 55 67 40 71 / 90 60 0 0
Cookeville 56 65 39 69 / 90 70 0 0
Jamestown 56 66 37 68 / 90 70 10 0
Lawrenceburg 57 68 40 71 / 90 70 0 0
Murfreesboro 55 68 39 73 / 90 60 0 0
Waverly 51 63 39 70 / 90 20 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH 78.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Rose
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1032 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north of the area late tonight into early
Monday morning. Low pressure consolidates just north of the
Canadian border during Monday and drags a pair of cold fronts
through Monday night and Tuesday morning. High pressure builds
in through Wednesday, then a frontal system quickly works into
the region on Thursday, potentially stalling near the area
through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The warm front is making slow progress north this evening having
just passed Atlantic City across Southern NJ. It will take
several hours longer for it to reach the coast with the latest
HRRR bringing it onshore between 12-2am. The front may hang up a
bit as it reaches the area before getting a boost to the north
of the area around or shortly after day break. A LLJ will ramp
up, especially across Long Island and southern CT.
The main concern for the rest of the night will be low clouds
and potential fog development. As the warm front draws closer,
visibilities should begin lowering. However, confidence is low
on whether the fog becomes dense or remains somewhere between
1/2sm-3sm. Some weak thermal forcing will pass across the first
half of the night bringing with it some light rain mainly for
the western half of the area.
Once the warm front lifts north of a specific area, winds will
shift from the E-NE to the S and could even become gusty. This
is most likely along the coast late tonight. Temperatures will
also begin rising late tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The warm front lifts north during the morning. The cloud deck
overall should gradually lift some, with cloudy skies remaining with
a strong warm advection pattern ensuing. Some guidance is suggesting
that fog may attempt to stick around a little longer than
anticipated for Monday morning. A difficult call since this time of
year regarding the warm sector as it can get rather complicated with
advection off the colder ocean. A strong synoptic gradient will be
in place with a S to SSW flow regime, thus overall expecting the
lowest clouds to break and dissipate. A few showers from time to
time are on the table through the early afternoon, but it may
actually not be raining much of the time. Most of the forcing will
reside west of the area through a good portion of the day. It really
shouldn`t be until later in the afternoon that showers should become
more widespread with scattered shower activity beginning to fill in
with higher moisture values and higher PWATs advecting in. By late
in the day and evening PWAT values begin to climb into the 1.25 to
1.50 inch range. SPC has placed far western portions of the area in
a Slight Risk of severe weather, with a marginal risk into the NYC
metro. With the forcing ramping up CAM guidance indicates a
potential squall line by early evening for the western part of the
area which would likely weaken as it encounters maritime dominated
air as it gets further east. Despite overall CAPE being limited,
some stronger wind gusts cannot be ruled out (especially west of the
NYC metro) with any convection that can get going for the evening.
Overall, the convection should allow some embedded heavier shower
activity to pivot through the region. With the southerly flow off
the ocean for the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA, it may be difficult to
get stronger gusts down to the surface with what is left of any low
level inversion and the maritime influence. Rainfall totals should
be in the 0.7 to 1.4 inch range across the area with WPC maintaining
a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. See the hydrology section for
further details.
The shower activity and any convection will get further east by the
late evening and overnight as the cold front begins to pivot into
and through the area. The winds immediately behind the boundary will
switch to the NW. This should take place for the NYC metro towards
or shortly after midnight. The NW flow picks up into the Tuesday AM
commute as a secondary cold front pivots through early.
Low pressure exits further off the NE coast as high pressure builds
on Tuesday. A N to NNW flow regime ushers in drier air. A seasonable
day temperature wise with mainly middle 50s as full sunshine
develops. Chose to stick close to NBM guidance temp wise as the flow
will be more northerly as opposed to westerly, thus temperatures
should not get too much above guidance with less overall adiabatic
compression / warming.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry wx Tue ngt thru the day on Wed with high pres building in. Temps
Tue ngt still on track for 20s and 30s, although the NBM has trended
up slightly for cstl areas, likely due to nly flow thru the ngt
minimizing the radiational cooling potential.
Increasing clouds Wed with a warm front approaching. Chances for
shwrs Wed ngt as the theta-e ridge builds in. There could be some
fog and dz as well, but kept out for now in case the front stalls S
of the area before jumping nwd Thu mrng.
Warm sectored on Thu, with areas W of the Hudson the warmest,
possibly 20 degrees or so warmer than Montauk. Went with the blended
approach for rain chances per the NBM, but these numbers may end up
a bit high if the cdfnt remains too far W as the 12Z GFS suggests.
As the main upr lvl energy with the sys ejects into Canada, the
residual boundary looks to meander over the area right thru the
weekend, at times S of the area, at times over the area. The fcst is
NBM pops meaning chances for shwrs thru the period. The 12Z ECMWF
and GFS suggest this pattern wipes out around next Mon with a strong
upr low dropping down out of Canada.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front slowly approaches from the south tonight, lifting
across the terminals early Monday morning. A cold front
approaches on Monday, passing through the terminals Monday
night.
IFR conditions should become widespread LIFR overnight. Fog
will also become likely LIFR visibilities likely, especially
just before the warm front passage. Visibilities should begin
improving as the warm front lifts north through Monday morning.
Ceilings should remain LIFR to IFR through middle morning with
the likelihood of improvement thereafter to MVFR for most
terminals except across Long Island and Southern Connecticut.
There is also a chance for VFR at KEWR, KTEB, and KSWF,
especially Monday afternoon.
E winds 5-10 kt this evening will gradually become SE-S overnight
into early Monday morning, then SSW toward daybreak Monday with
wind speeds beginning to increase. The warm front will likely
pass earlier across Long Island terminals allowing winds to
shift faster to the S. SSW gusts 20-25kt develop late Monday
morning into early afternoon. LLWS is expected at coastal
terminals early Monday with SW winds 40-50 kt at 2kft. Gusts
likely become occasional late afternoon with winds shifting to
the NW behind the cold front passage late Monday evening.
A few showers are possible tonight. Higher probabilities of
showers exists late Monday afternoon into Monday evening mainly
for NYC terminals on NW. Thunderstorms are also possible and
have included PROB30s to account for this potential at KEWR,
KTEB, and KSWF. These thunderstorms could briefly produce gusty
winds. Confidence is much lower for thunder further east.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Confidence in visibility forecast is low tonight.
Timing of lowering to LIFR this evening may be off by 1-3
hours.
Amendments are likely for timing of category changes tonight
into Monday.
Timing of SHRA and potential TSRA (at KEWR and KTEB) may be off
by 1- 3 hours Monday evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night: Showers with possible thunderstorms in the evening.
The best chance for thunder exists for NYC terminals on NW.
MVFR-IFR, with local LIFR possible, mainly Long Island and Southern
CT terminals in the evening. Improvements to VFR likely late. SW
winds shift to the NW overnight and become gusty 20-25 kt.
Tuesday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt during the day.
Wednesday: VFR during the day. MVFR or lower possible at night with
a chance of showers. SE wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers with the
highest chance NW of the NYC metro terminals. SW wind gusts 15-25
kt, highest along the cost.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A marine dense fog advisory is in effect for tonight into Monday
morning for reduces visibilities in areas of fog.
Sub advisory conditions through this evening with ocean seas around
4 ft. A southerly flow picks up during the overnight out on the
ocean as seas begin to climb resulting in small craft conditions
developing, with far eastern LI Sound approaching small craft
conditions towards day break. The non-ocean waters then go to small
craft by mid to late morning on Monday. Other than a brief lull in
conditions with a wind switch from S-SW to NW Monday night, small
craft conditions resume by Tuesday morning on a NW wind. Small craft
gusts to around 25 kt will take shape on all waters on Tuesday,
along with elevated seas out on the ocean.
Small craft conditions may linger for the majority of the time on
the ocean Tue ngt thru Fri. Elsewhere, SCA winds possible Wed ngt
and Thu behind a warm frontal passage.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected late Monday
afternoon through Monday night. The main concern will be
some localized minor nuisance / poor drainage urban type
flooding.
No hydrologic impacts are expected for the remainder of the period,
Tue-Sun.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical levels are high with recent new moon. This combined
with continuous easterly flow has built up water levels. High
tide has largely passed for the vulnerable locations across the
back back bays and Lower Harbor. Most spots just touched minor
benchmarks or just fell short. Have cancelled the statements
across eastern Long Island as water levels will remain below
minor flood stage. The Advisory remains for coastal Fairfield
and coastal Westchester where minor benchmarks will likely be
exceeded by several tenths of a foot. Statements remain for
coastal New Haven, Bronx, and northern Queens for only
localized minor tonight.
Additional minor coastal flooding is possible around the times
of high tide Monday night.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for NYZ071.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ331-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
601 PM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warm front lifting north tonight into Monday morning will
support another round of rain/snow showers, with a cold front
on Monday bringing more widespread precipitation along with
isolated thunderstorms.
- Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for a handful of
mountain zones due to forecast snowfall totals of 4-10
inches.
- Winds will remain elevated, peaking Tuesday.
- A secondary Pacific system building in midweek will keep
precipitation chances going ahead of a ridge of high pressure
building in by the weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Radar and local cameras show light snowfall continuing in parts of
the Central Mountains/Mud Lake area as some wrap-around
moisture slowly dissipates this afternoon and a few showers have
begun lifting north out of Utah into the South Hills. Overall, we`re
still in a little bit of a break from more organized moisture
this afternoon as a weak ridge passes over us, but that will
change this evening and tonight as a warm front lifts northward
through the Great Basin driving our next round of rain and snow
our way. Precipitation will move in from the southwest and lift
northeast overnight and ahead of a cold front that will arrive
tomorrow, so we are expecting several rounds of precipitation
with some dry time in between throughout the day Monday and even
into Tuesday. It`s on Tuesday that we see more of the wrap
around moisture moving through the Eastern Highlands. For
tonight, most of the precipitation will fall as rain in the
eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain as temperatures will
be in the mid 30s. However, some light snow is possible in the
upper Snake River Plain where temperatures will be just a bit
closer to freezing, though little to no accumulation is
expected. Winds will pick up on Monday afternoon with gusts of
25 to 35 mph across much of Eastern Idaho. As temperatures warm
on Monday, we will see increasing chances for thunderstorms
across the entire CWA, but especially in the eastern Magic
Valley, South Hills, Snake River Plain, and Southeastern
Highlands. The latest HREF 24-hour thunder probability shows
about a 60 to 80 percent chance of thunderstorms through this
southern half of our CWA. Some storms will produce small hail
and gusty winds.
Snow totals will be a bit higher up in the mountains with totals
closer to 5 to 7 inches around Galena Summit and 3 to 5 inches in
the Island Park area, Monida Pass, and around Emigration Summit
on Monday. Snow totals will be higher in the Eastern Highlands
on Tuesday where we see more of that wrap around moisture and
less snow in the Central Mountains/Sawtooths. This will give the
Island Park area, Big Hole Mountains, and Bear River Range
48-hour snow totals of 6 to 10 inches by Tuesday evening. Given
these forecast snowfall totals, have gone ahead with Winter
Weather Advisories for these areas. It`s a lower-end advisory
event, but overnight snow could impact some morning commutes on
Monday and Tuesday. Morning temperatures on Tuesday will be in
the upper 20s to low 30s in the valleys, which means there is a
small chance for some light snow accumulation for everyone
Tuesday morning with the NBM showing about a 10 to 20 percent
chance for an inch of snow around Idaho Falls and Rexburg on
Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025
The area will reside under a broad upper trough for much of the
period with below normal temperatures, widespread cloud cover and
daily precip chances. Tuesday appears to be the best day for precip,
focused mainly across the higher terrain of the eastern highlands
and central mountains, along with gusty winds throughout eastern
Idaho. Could be close to reaching Wind Advisory levels in spots but
right now the forecast remains just shy. This will be something to
monitor over the days ahead however. Wednesday and Thursday the
pattern is a bit messier with precip becoming less organized in
nature but possible at basically any time throughout the day with
broad troughing remaining over the area. Northerly flow aloft will
keep temperatures running below normal with highs mostly in the 30s
and 40s. Things start to change on Friday with models wanting to
develop a cut-off low to our south with a rex-block pattern setting
up over the Pacific NW. H5 height rises will allow for gradually
warming temperatures beginning Friday (closer to normal) and
continuing to warm into the weekend with 60s becoming more
commonplace across our lower elevations by the end of next weekend.
This pattern should also keep things on the drier side from Friday
into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM MDT Sun Mar 30 2025
After a relative...albeit slightly messy...break between systems
today, impactful weather returns to the aviation world tonight and
Monday as multiple rounds of rain/snow are expected, along with
isolated afternoon thunderstorms Monday...all in advance of a large,
slow-moving low pressure storm system currently approaching the
Pacific Coast. This system will keep varying precip/cig/vsby impacts
going Tuesday as well, along with an increase in winds Tuesday. In
the meantime...feeling a bit better (at least moderate confidence)
in timing of the various rounds of rain/snow, and have added much
more detail to the 00z TAFs in trying to time these rounds out and
highlight any organized breaks in between (mileage varies by
terminal). In general, rounds will be more showery and shorter lived
until we get to the 17-21z/11am-3pm FM groups Monday afternoon, at
which time precip should become more widespread for the rest of the
day with embedded thunderstorms. This may end up being the most
impactful period for regional aviation overall. HREF ensemble max
wind gusts do feature just a couple isolated instances of 50-60 MPH
gusts (likely convectively-induced), but given how much cloud cover
and precip will be running around, and given ensemble mean SB/MU
CAPE values of only 100-250 J/kg, we expect storms will generally be
weak and isolated. West winds will be strengthening aloft, but
currently not approaching criteria for LLWS. While we`re feeling a
bit better about timing...we`re not feeling rosy at all with regard
to cig/vsby impacts tied to each round of precipitation. NBM
guidance is VERY VFR with no vis drops and almost non-existent cig
drops associated even with the steadier periods of precip, and even
HRRR and MOS guidance are messy and a bit optimistic. This just
doesn`t make conceptual sense, and this is especially true for KSUN
and KDIJ during periods where temperatures will be cold enough for
all snow (most of the TAF period). Have gone ahead and massaged cigs
down below the guidance consensus for some of these rounds, and
have pushed vsbys to 2-3 SM during organized snow for now. As
these rounds start to impact ASOS stations upstream across
Nevada into SW Idaho...and then our forecast area tonight...we
hope to calibrate the cig/vsby forecast a bit better. NBM probs
suggest about a 20% chance of lower cigs than currently forecast
at any given site during the precipitation periods...for what
it`s worth. Strongest winds Monday afternoon will be at KIDA,
but parallel with the runway for a tailwind there. No organized
crosswinds currently expected at KSUN.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Tuesday for IDZ060-063-064-066-067.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Monday for IDZ071>074.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...KSmith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1015 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Disturbances bring an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms, culminating in a strong to severe storm threat
tonight and Monday. Unsettled Wednesday through next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1015 PM Sunday...
Per coordination with SPC, issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch for
portions of northern SE OH and northwest WV until 3 AM tonight.
As of 949 PM Sunday...
Updated weather grids to add severe thunderstorms with damaging
winds to the forecast tonight. SPC has expanded the enhanced
risk for severe thunderstorms further east into West Virginia.
The main threat is damaging winds, with lower probabilities for
hail and tornadoes.
As of 450 PM Sunday...
Adjusted down hourly temperatures and dewpoints as they were
running high compared with surface observations. This resulted
in slightly lower afternoon maximum temperatures, about 3-4
degrees lower.
Radar imagery shows isolated light showers along the eastern
mountains, and across northeast KY moving northeast late this
afternoon. Also, a distinctive convective line is evident
across central KY at the moment of writing. Tracking tools and
high resolution models suggest this line arriving to the Tri-
state area (OH/KY/WV) around 00Z, and then moving northeast
affecting SE OH with showers and thunderstorms. However, a
stronger line of convection is expected to reach the OH River by
03-06Z tonight. This second line may bring strong to severe
thunderstorms to the area with damaging winds being the main
threat. Stay tuned on any changes in weather conditions
expected tonight.
As of 235 PM Sunday...
A pair of mid/upper-level short wave troughs conspire to bring a
severe weather threat to the area tonight and Monday. The first,
actually two that merge into one, drives a surface cold front
toward the area tonight, and then a second behind it and
farther south, pushes the front through the area on Monday,
possibly inducing wave formation along it as it does.
Ahead of all of this, a more subtle mid-level flat wave inducing
showers across the area today was also limiting diurnal heating.
With that, and convection induced upstream by the first of mid/upper-
level short wave trough arriving along the western flank of our
county warning area after sunset, represent the main negative
factors impacting severe weather potential.
However, showers moving out of the area this afternoon were
allowing breaks in the overcast. Models suggest MUCAPE climbing
to 500-1000 J/kg across much of the middle Ohio Valley this
afternoon, and thunderstorms may be able to fire up there, out
ahead of the main line or lines forming well out to the west.
Models depict MUCAPE climbing above 1000 J/kg along our western
flank by 00Z, before diminishing overnight, as the setting sun
reveals the instability axis ahead of the cold front moving into
the forecast area via the loss of the late afternoon MUCAPE
ahead of the axis. MUCAPE in the axis also tapers off to the
north-northeast ahead of the front while diminishing tonight.
As a result, the north-northeast extent of MUCAPE values over
500 J/kg kind of slides southeastward through southwest portions
of the area. Most models reduce maximum MUCAPE in that area to
less than 500 J/kg overnight.
What is left of the convective line should push out of the area
around 12Z Monday, well out ahead of the cold front, which will
still be just west of the forecast area as dawn breaks.
In the meantime, as well said in the Storm Prediction Center
discussion for the Day One Convective Outlook, a 50-70 kt
southwesterly mid-level jet attendant to the shortwave trough
will provide ample deep-layer shear for organized convection.
The question is how long the wind threat associated with the
upscale growth outlives the fading MUCAPE. A tornado can occur
if the line is still sufficiently strong when it arrives from
the west tonight. The large hail threat is next to nil.
The second short wave trough may induce a wave along the cold
front as it crosses on Monday, which could impact its timing as
it takes much of the day to cross the forecast area from west to
east. Showers will become more numerous Monday morning along
and east of the Ohio River, ahead of the front. This will again
limit heating, but there should be adequate MUCAPE for
thunderstorms to fire at least in the mountains, and one last
line could fire farther west if the front is slow enough Monday
afternoon, again depending upon wave formation.
There will again be ample shear for thunderstorms that form to
grow and become severe in and near the mountains, with wind
damage the main threat, but a tornado also possible, and the
large hail threat again just about nil.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1224 PM Sunday...
Quiet and dry weather will briefly return Tuesday as high pressure
moves back over the area. Temperatures will feel cooler than recent
days with highs only in the 50s to lower 60s, due to a post-frontal
airmass. Sunshine will mix with some clouds throughout the day. High
clouds will increase again from the west Tuesday night as low
pressure organizes and strengthens over the Plains. Its associated
warm front will approach from the southwest early Wednesday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1224 PM Sunday...
A warm front will lift through the region from south to north
Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the day
as the warm front lifts through the region, and some may be strong
to severe. Just like recent severe weather events we`ve seen this
year, there will be ample 0-6 km shear (45-55 kts) for thunderstorm
organization, but models are showing limited instability over our
region. More favorable instability can be found farther to the west,
across northern Kentucky and southwest Ohio, with some models
depicting 500-1,000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by the afternoon.
Therefore, the confidence in our area receiving severe weather
Wednesday is low at this time, and the best chance would probably be
across our northeast Kentucky counties and parts of southeast Ohio.
Thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend as a cold
front approaches and stalls over West Virginia. SPC currently
outlines a 15% severe threat over portions of our region Thursday.
Models are showing more favorable instability parameters Thursday
over our region, with potentially 400-800 J/kg of MLCAPE developing
in the afternoon across central and southern West Virginia. In
addition, there should still be ample 0-6 km shear available for
thunderstorm organization (45-55 kts). Given that this is still 4-5
days out, confidence is low and details are blurry at this time, so
we will wait and see how this all evolves. With a front stalling
over our area into the weekend and potential for showers and
thunderstorms just about each day Wednesday through Sunday, we will
also have to watch for an increased potential for flooding. More
details will be revealed in time as things become clearer.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM Sunday...
The period starts with widespread VFR conditions under a canopy of
mid level clouds from 4-6kft. Latest guidance suggests line of
thunderstorms approaching NE KY, and SE OH around 03-05Z. Have coded
TEMPO groups to include thunderstorms with strong gusty winds at HTS
and PKB from 03-06Z. Guidance suggests the convective line should
diminish in intensity as it crosses the OH River. However,
uncertainty exist on how far east strong convection will survive.
Nevertheless, MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected with stronger
cells. A little tricky to time convection at determine terminals.
Followed the latest HRRR model, timing thunderstorms at CRW with a
TEMPO group from 05-09Z. Did not include TEMPO groups at the rest of
eastern terminal as believe thunderstorms will run out of fuel,
dissipating as they move east across WV overnight.
More showers are expected Monday morning as a wave moves up along
the front. Thunderstorms may begin to fire up by afternoon, and
could become strong to severe near the end of the TAF period, 18Z
Monday, in and near the mountains.
Winds 10 knots or less have lost their gustiness early this evening.
However, wind gusts up to 40 knots will be possible along and nearby
the convective line. Hail is also possible with this convection.
Winds will increase overnight gusting up to 20 outside
thunderstorms.
Moderate to strong south to southwest flow aloft may induce low
level wind shear overnight where winds do not mix down to the
surface. Coded LLWS respectively following the NBM guidance.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of restrictions in
showers and thunderstorms could vary. Thunderstorms may maintain
their strength longer into the overnight than currently
anticipated.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 03/31/25
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H L M H H H H H H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H M L M L H L H L H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H H M
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms throughout
the area at times mid to late week.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMC
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
607 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Round 2 of severe weather (Enhanced Risk 3 of 5) continues
through the late afternoon and early evening for areas in
south central MO. All severe hazards are possible including
large hail up to tennis balls, damaging winds up to 70 mph,
and a tornado or two.
- Behind the cold front, cooler and breezy into Monday.
Temperatures drop into the 30s on Monday night, introducing a
frost risk, particularly in the eastern Ozarks.
- High confidence in southeast wind gusts around 30 to 40 mph
on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with the potential for higher
gusts.
- Unsettled weather ahead from mid-week through late week into
next weekend. Confidence is increasing in severe
thunderstorms, with the highest threat on Wednesday.
Additionally, heavy rainfall and flooding become a concern.
&&
.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms today:
The latest trends continue to support afternoon redevelopment,
roughly between 12 to 3 PM across portions of south central MO.
This can be visualized as an area along and southeast of a
slowly advancing cold front this morning. This area is
highlighted in the SPC Slight (2 of 5) to Enhanced (3 of 5)
Severe Weather Outlook today. Recent surface analysis depicts
the surface front running parallel to Interstate 44, roughly
from Branson to Rolla. The advancement of this cold front
through late morning into the early afternoon remains a key
component to the afternoon redevelopment in the area as
shortwave energy lifts through the region. Additionally, an
existing cold pool/outflow boundary continues to meander slowly
through south central MO this morning. As this outflow boundary
exits to the east, gradual destabilization is expected to occur
in its wake. This is depicted in the latest observations,
showing middle 60 dewpoints advecting north out of northern
Arkansas. Visible satellite imagery depicts an area of clearing
overlapping south central MO, that will further aid in daytime
heating.
Assuming south central MO is able to efficiently destabilize
ahead of the cold front, the environment is progged to be
favorable for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Recent RAP
analysis suggest upwards of 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE by early to
mid afternoon, in the vicinity of 45 to 55 knots of 0-6km bulk
shear. Thus, supporting rapid updraft development of a few
supercells. This remains the most likely storm mode after
initial convective initiation, before potentially getting messy
with storm interactions and/or upscale growth. Given the more
favorable scenario of semi-discrete cells in the area, the
primary hazard remains large hail, with a lower risk for
damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado.
Taking a closer at hazards, large hail remains the greatest
concern. RAP suggests steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km in
the vicinity of 500-750 J/kg of CAPE through the hail growth
zone (-10 to -30 C). The large hail parameter values remain on
track to be anywhere from 8 to 14, with research suggesting that
this leads to maximum hail size of tennis balls or larger. As
for damaging winds, they remain a plausible hazard, especially
if thunderstorms are able to congeal into a cluster or segments.
Meanwhile, forecast soundings continue to depict unidirectional
shear to the NE, supporting elongated and relatively straight
hodographs. Low- level shear is expected to remain rather modest
around 15 to 20 knots, as is storm- relative helicity in the
same layer below 100 m2/s2. Additionally, surface winds are
expected to be southwesterly. These point to a lower tornado
risk and more of a large hail risk with any supercell.
To bring everything together, the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms occurs in small window this afternoon into
the early evening, generally between 2 to 6 PM. This leaves a 2
to 4 hour window for severe potential over south central MO.
Activity quickly exits to the south and east after 6 PM. The
primary hazard is large hail up to tennis balls, with lower
confidence in damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph or an isolated
tornado. Small changes in the mesoscale, such as a quicker
moving cold front could potentially limit the extent of
thunderstorm development in this area still. Monitor for
additional updates to the latest trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Tonight: The cold front clears the area through the evening,
with cooler air filtering in through tonight. Lows tonight fall
into the middle to upper 30s with a northerly breeze persisting.
Monday: Cooler temperatures in the forecast for Monday
afternoon, with highs in the middle to upper 50s. A few
locations may push 60 along the MO/AR border. This a 5 to 7 degrees
below normal for late March. However, drier conditions are
expected through Monday with a mix of sun and clouds. As clouds
clear into Monday night, a strong radiational cooling setup
overspreads the area. So the question is will be cold enough in
locations for frost development? NBM spread remains around 5
degrees between the 25th to 75th percentiles, ranging anywhere
from mid 30s to lower 40s (along and west of Highway 65),
decreasing to lower to middle 30s (across the eastern Ozarks). Areas
along the spine of the Ozark and Salem Plateaus have the best
chances of seeing frost-supporting conditions, with a 60-90%
chance of temperatures below 37 degrees. However, a hard freeze
seems unlikely in most areas with less than 15% chance of
temperatures to reach 32 degrees or lower.
In general, we are not expecting a widespread frost event, but
rather localized areas of frost development. A Frost Advisory
may be warranted if confidence continues to increase over
portions of the Ozarks. Continue to monitor for additional
updates over the next 12 to 24 hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Tuesday: A chilly start to the day on Tuesday with the
potential for frost in some areas. A ridge builds across the
eastern CONUS on Tuesday, allowing southwesterly flow to advect
warm air and moisture back into the area along the low- level
jet Highs on Tuesday climb back into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Meanwhile, a deep upper- level trough pushes across the
intermountain west. The pressure gradient will tighten across
the Plains through the day Tuesday, and winds will increase to
20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph on Tuesday afternoon. NBM
probabilities depict the following:
Wind Gust > 30 mph: 80-100%
Wind Gust > 35 mph: 60-80%
Wind Gust > 40 mph: 40-60%
Winds will remain gusty into the overnight hours as the
nocturnal low- level jet strengthens, though The "most likely"
wind forecast range is just below Wind Advisory criteria. This
may need further evaluated in future forecast updates.
Tuesday Night: Shower and thunderstorm chances (60-90%) return
Tuesday evening and night as a strong jet streak pushes into the
central Plains, and the surface low pressure system pushes
east- northeastward. As discussed above, the surface mass
response will bring gusty southerly winds. These will quickly
advect in 60 to 65 degree dewpoints, increasing instability to
1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. As such, global models depict storms
developing along a dryline in east-central KS, which will move
eastward into Tuesday evening/night. Confidence is increasing in
a few scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with this quick
moving system, as denoted in the recent SPC Slight Risk (2 of 5)
expansion eastward into the area. This will be further
evaluated as we get closer to the event.
Wednesday-Saturday: As we progress into mid-week, strong
southwest flow further deepens across the Southern Plains into
the Mississippi Valley. Mid 60 dewpoints remain in place ahead
of the next system, with strong dynamics over the region. While
there is some remaining uncertainties on how exactly the event
unfolds, we will continue to advertise increasing confidence in
yet another severe weather event across the area. SPC has a 15%
Day 5 severe weather risk for areas west of Highway of 65 and (equivalent
to a Slight Risk, or level 2 of 5) and a 30% severe weather
risk east of along and east of Highway 65 (equivalent to an
Enhanced Risk, or a level 3 of 5). Stay tuned over the next few
days for additional information.
An active pattern persists on Thursday and into next weekend as
strong southwest flow persists, overriding a stalled boundary
bisecting portions of the area. This pattern setup aligns
closely to the Maddox heavy rainfall pattern, with increasing
confidence in multiple days in a row of showers and
thunderstorms. This includes the potential for flooding, despite
recent dry conditions across the area. Additionally, there may
be a lingering severe threat into late week. Likewise to the
mid-week activity, there are many remaining uncertainties on the
exact timing and locations of heaviest rainfall amounts.
Temperatures remain consistently in the 60s to lower 70s, with
lows in the 40s to middle 50s. Hydrology partners need to keep a
close eye on this setup, as it poses the potential for
excessive amounts.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
For the 00z TAFS, convection has cleared to the east of the TAF
sites. Should see VFR conditions continue through the evening,
but some of the CAMS are bringing back some stratus during the
overnight hours and into Monday. Will include some MVFR to
account for this late tonight into Monday.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Perez
SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Lindenberg