Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/29/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1020 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers will be arriving this evening, spreading from
southwest to northeast as a warm front lifts north across the
area. Showers will continue through the weekend and into early
next week as multiple waves and a cold front move through.
Summer-like temperatures will be possible this weekend and into
early next week before cooling back to seasonable conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
1015 PM Update...
Latest 00z HRRR, 3km NAM and 23z NBM are starting to come into
better agreement on the frontal position through the day on
Saturday. It now appears the front nudges north to about Penn
Yan, Ithaca, Tully and Cooperstown early to mid-morning, then
slowly retreats south midday into the afternoon. By around 3PM
the sharp front will likely be draped along the northern borders
of the NY southern tier counties from Steuben east to Broome
and Delaware counties. Places such as Penn Yan, Watkins Glen,
Ithaca, Cortland, and Sherburne are forecast to see rapid
temperature drops, possibly even into the 40s or lower 50s on
the other side of the front by late afternoon. Made some
relatively minor temperature tweaks to the official forecast
with this latest data. Syracuse, Utica and Rome are now forecast
to be stuck in the 40s most of the daytime hours and could
perhaps just touch 50 for a high. Added in some fog later
tonight through Saturday and Saturday evening north of the warm
frontal boundary. Rest of the forecast remains on track.
630 PM Update...
Warm front is approaching from the west this evening, bringing
periods of rain with it. The rain will continue into the
overnight hours, then lift northeast along the front. Rainfall
amounts of up to a half inch are expected overnight...with a
quarter inch or less from the NY southern tier down into NE PA.
The warm front looks to stall near I-90 by daybreak as a few
weak waves of low pressure ride eastward along it from southern
Ontario. A very tricky, complex forecast for Saturday. Minor
differences in the near term guidance, such as exact frontal
boundary placement and timing of any frontal movement will make
a huge difference in the sensible weather. The HRRR and near
term NBM guidance seems to be dropping the front a bit further
south on Saturday, possibly closer to the Twin Tiers, however
was not ready to buy into that trend just yet, as the 3km NAM
keeps it further north, and upstream obs suggest a further north
frontal position (based on obs over lower Michigan and Southern
Wisconsin this evening.
There will be large differences on either side of the front.
Along and north of the front Saturday will feature low clouds,
showers and temperatures in the 40s to perhaps low 50s.
Meanwhile just south of the front it will be partly sunny and
very warm with temperatures in the upper 60s to
low/mid-70s...and further south across the Wyoming Valley region
it should warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s! The greatest
uncertainty in the forecast is across the Twin Tiers,
Susquehanna region and southern Finger Lakes. We will continue
to monitor the latest trends in guidance and adjust the forecast
as needed.
400 PM Update...
Plenty of clouds will be around this evening with scattered
showers expected to develop over the next few hours ahead of a
warm front that will be lifting north across the area this
evening. Showers will be spreading from southwest to northeast
across the CWA. Some model guidance suggests there could be
around 200 J/kg of MUCAPE late this evening and into the
overnight hours around the northern Finger Lakes and toward the
Mohawk Valley with sufficient shear, so a rumble of thunder
can`t be ruled out. The front is expected to stall out over
north-central NY later tonight close to the NYS Thruway, which
will lead to the shower activity becoming more concentrated
north of the Southern Tier. Temperatures will be non-diurnal
with lows occurring this evening as warm air is advected
northward tonight and there will be a wide range in lows. Low
temperatures north of the NYS Thruway will be in the mid 30s to
around 40 degrees, while the rest of the area bottoms out
between the low 40s and low 50s before rising.
The stalled frontal boundary across north-central NY looks to
drift to the south later tomorrow morning and into the afternoon
before again pushing northward toward tomorrow evening. As a
result, portions of the Southern Tier and NE PA can start the
day off largely dry before showers begin to develop to the south
as the day goes on. There is also some modest amounts of
instability showing up on most model guidance later tomorrow
afternoon into the first part of tomorrow night, on average
around 200-300 J/kg from the Southern Tier into NE PA and the
southern Catskills with 25 to 35 knots of shear, so an isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. There is some uncertainty as
to how far south the front will drift which will make high
temperatures a bit of a challenge. Areas well south of the front
tomorrow, the Southern Tier into NE PA, are expected to reach
the upper 60s to mid 70s, with some parts of the Wyoming Valley
and Delaware River Valley in NE PA climbing into the upper 70s
to even near 80 degrees! North of the Southern Tier is expected
to be in the 60s, but again there is some uncertainty with the
boundary placement, and then areas north of the Thruway will be
much cooler in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Scattered showers will continue tomorrow night, however, there
may be a dry slot that tries to develop which could lead to
showers tapering off for a time later tomorrow evening or during
the overnight hours. Again there will be a wide range in low
temperatures ranging from the mid 30s and low 40s north to the
upper 40s to mid 50s south.
Rainfall totals tonight through tomorrow night are expected to
range from 0.25"-0.50" from the Twin Tiers northward to around
Route 20 in CNY. From the I-90 corridor north there can be
0.50"-1.00" of rain with localized higher amounts, especially
over Oneida County.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A frontal boundary over the region Sunday will start to lift
northward as a warm front Sunday night. Another mild day is expected
Sunday as a result with spots getting well into the 60`s. Enough
lift and moisture will be present for a few rounds of showers. QPF
though looks fairly light under a half inch. Temperatures Sunday
night should not fall much because of the southerly flow after the
warm frontal passage.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front then looks to sweep through the area Monday afternoon
and night. Additional showers and thunderstorms should develop ahead
of the front. Instability still is in question but the
environment will be highly sheared. However, confidence is
increasing that a few hundred J/KG of CAPE could advect into NE
PA and the Southern Tier of NY. So there is potential for a few
storms with gusty to damaging winds. With continued warm air
advection, most locations should get close to 70 again then fall
sharply by Tuesday morning.
Clouds will likely linger a bit longer than what model guidance
indicates keeping temperatures more seasonable in the 30`s and 40`s.
A slight return off of Lake Ontario is possible as well for a
few Lake Effect snow showers early Tuesday. High pressure is
only a quick visitor early Wednesday before another frontal
boundary with several low pressure systems and rounds of
showers move through Thursday and Friday. The chill looks short
lived Tuesday with well above normal temperatures again
Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain showers moving into the area will bring widespread MVFR to
Fuel ALternate restrictions this evening, before returning to
VFR by Saturday morning for terminals south of KSYR and KRME.
KSYR and KRME will be closer to a stalled frontal boundary and
more widespread rain showers and therefore restrictions are
expected to linger through most of the day Saturday for those
two locations. IFR ceilings are possible at KSYR late
tonight/early Saturday morning, with IFR restrictions likely at
KRME through most of the day Saturday.
LLWS is also expected beginning late this evening and lasting
until Saturday mid-morning. Less confidence in seeing LLWS at
KSYR and KRME, so this was not included in those two TAFs.
Outlook...
Saturday afternoon through Monday...Scattered showers and
associated restrictions possible.
Tuesday...Lingering restrictions possible early at CNY terminals,
then becoming mainly VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BJG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
817 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Pattern change begins, as snow showers develop across the higher
mountains tonight. Rain increases across the plains overnight.
- Additional rain and mountain snow showers this weekend,
possibly mixed with snow, across the lower elevations late
Saturday into Sunday.
- Cooler, unsettled pattern looks to continue next week, with
lower confidence on the timing and location of the upcoming
systems.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Should see a gradual increase in shower activity by midnight.
Currently, drier air in the boundary layer is allowing for mostly
virga/sprinkles. It will take a few more hours for this layer of
dry air to be eroded. Otherwise, fcst looks on track for the
overnight hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
A messy forecast in store to start the weekend, as we finally move
on from our long stretch of warm and dry weather across the
region.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows the first of a few
shortwaves moving across northwestern Arizona, which should track
across southeastern Colorado overnight into Saturday morning. At
the surface, a broad lee trough should continue to organize
through the overnight hours. The surface low should strengthen and
drift towards the KS/CO border near Goodland, leading to an
increase in moist/upslope flow across northern Colorado.
The increase in upslope, along with some QG ascent and a somewhat
favorable upper level jet streak, should allow for widespread
showers to develop across the region during the afternoon and
evening hours. Snow is likely above 9,000ft MSL, with rain
elsewhere. The positioning of a more organized rainband overnight
remains one of the bigger forecasting challenges of the day.
Guidance continues to suggest a southwest-northeast oriented zone
of 700-500mb fgen, which should lead to some better precipitation
rates. There has been little movement towards a consensus today,
with high resolution guidance drier/further east than most
deterministic guidance and their ensembles. The HRRR has gradually
shifted a little closer to the global model mean, which was
favored in our current forecast.
The forecast doesn`t get much clearer tomorrow. Lingering stratus
through the day will impact temperatures (in addition to the
cooler airmass in general), with highs only reaching the upper 50s
to low 60s. Precipitation should diminish across the CWA during
the daytime as we end up in between shortwaves, but the next wave
isn`t too far behind, and we`ll see an increase in rain/snow
across the mountains during the afternoon. Showers will once again
develop across the Denver metro late in the afternoon or early
evening. If the solutions with stronger heating are correct, there
would be as much as 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE which would lead to a
few thunderstorms across the lower elevations. We`ll have to see
how the first wave evolves tonight, but it may feel a lot more
like spring soon!
&&
.LONG TERM /Saturday night through Friday/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
The next shortwave trough will bring rain and mountain snow
Saturday evening. Could see a couple thunderstorms into the early
evening hours if the airmass destabilizes enough Saturday
afternoon. Cold air advection will quickly stabilize the airmass
by mid evening, ending the thunderstorm threat.
As temperatures fall across the plains Saturday night, rain will
mix with and change to snow over the eastern plains. The GFS shows
it getting cold enough for snow during the evening hours, but so
far this season the GFS has typically run a little too cool.
However the warmer ECMWF also shows it getting cold enough for
snow after midnight, so will mention a rain/snow mix for the Urban
Corridor with all snow by Sunday morning over the northeast
plains where the colder air will reside. Precipitation will be
decreasing and coming to an end Sunday morning, so snowfall
amounts are expected to be light, mainly 2 inches or less on
grassy surfaces.
After a lull Sunday morning/early afternoon, a round of scattered
rain and snow showers are expected with a weak shortwave
combining with weak afternoon instability. The focus for these
showers will be west of I-25 and south of I-70. This activity is
expected to end late Sunday evening.
For Monday and Tuesday, westerly flow aloft will prevail Monday
and then it backs to the southwest Tuesday as a broad upper level
trough moves into the Great Basin. Best chance for precipitation
will be across the mountains where orographic lift and moisture
are expected to bring snow showers with rain showers possible in
the valleys. Mountain snowfall is expected to become widespread
Monday night and Tuesday as moisture increases with the approach
of the upper level. A surface low forms east of the Rockies
Tuesday with a cold front dropping south across eastern Colorado.
Lift from the front and the left exit region of the jet my bring
rain showers to the Front Range and eastern plains Tuesday and
Tuesday night.
The broad upper level trough moves across the Central Rockies
Wednesday which will bring another chance for showers and cool
temperatures to the region. Southwest flow aloft develops across
the region Thursday and may continue into Friday with temperatures
at or slightly below normal. Models are starting to come into
agreement with a large upper level low forms over the Great Basin
by Friday. The track and strength of this low through next weekend
will remain highly uncertain the next few days, but has the
potential to bring significant precipitation somewhere from the
Southern Rockies/Plains to the Northern Rockies/Plains for next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday/...
Issued at 515 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
A Denver cyclone is in place late this aftn. This has allowed
winds to be NE but should see a more nly component by 02z. Should
see a gradual increase in shower activity by 06z which will
continue thru at least 12z. Ceilings will gradually drop down to
MVFR by 06z with periods of LIFR from 08z-12z. Visibility will
lower to MVFR during heavier showers overnight.
Will see some lingering showers thru 15z Sat, with LIFR ceilings
thru 16z. After 16z should see ceilings gradually rise to around
4000 ft. Winds in the morning will be light and variable. The next
chc of showers along with a possible tstm will be after 22z. Winds
by early aftn will become NE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Hiris
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...RPK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
637 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Dry conditions return this evening as the mid-to-upper level trough
over Deep South Texas continues to exit off to the east with zonal
flow aloft, drawing in much drier air behind it through Saturday
night. Throughout today, consecutive runs of short term and high
resolution models, the HRRR and RAP, have stayed consistent at the
possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over
the coastal counties and SPI in the later afternoon to early evening
hours. While the Severe Prediction Center (SPC) Mesoscale Analysis
Data shows 1,500-2,000 J/Kg of surface-based CAPE, wind and thermal
profiles are less supportive of deep upscale growth as was the case
yesterday. Additionally, the latest radar imagery reveals all of
Deep South Texas free of rain and thunderstorms. Should any
convection develop, the storms and showers will likely be much
smaller in aerial extent and much shorter in duration, with
moderate to heavy showers and some gusty winds. The strongest of
the cells could contain very heavy, but brief, rain with frequent
lightning, small hail and high wind gusts. Yet, again, all
activity is anticipated to end as the evening progresses.
Otherwise, a south-southeasterly breeze will continue with
breezier conditions expected Saturday afternoon and through
Saturday night as a pressure gradient tightens between a surface
low pressure system strengthening over the Central Plains and a
surface high pressure offshore of the East Coast. Gusts up to
20-25 mph are possible across the County Warning Area during that
timeframe.
Given the plenitude of moisture and the likelihood of low cloud
ceilings tonight, have bumped up low temperatures by a few degrees
using a blend of 50/50 Official/CONSSHORT, resulting in mid-to-
upper 60`s across the Northern Ranchlands and lower 70s across
most of the RGV. Used a blend of Official/BCCONSHORT to warm
temperatures by 1-2 degrees for Saturday, resulting in lower 90`s
for much of inland Deep South Texas, with mid-90`s possible in
some locations along the western border as well as upper 70s at
SPI. Very similar temperatures are expected Saturday night as
tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
UPDATE:
The long term forecast remains on track with no significant
changes. Warm and rain-free conditions continue into next week.
/Previous Discussion/:
Warmer and drier air is expected throughout next week, as zonal flow
develops and persists over the area. Little to no rain is expected
throughout Deep South Texas between Sunday and Thursday. High
temperatures are expected to range between the lower and upper 90s
throughout the week, and low temperatures are expected to get
down to the upper 60s/lower 70s. Some areas could see heat indices
over 100 degrees, particularly on Sunday and Wednesday.
Skies are expected to be clear to partly cloudy throughout the week
with some increased cloud cover on Tuesday. Winds will largely be
out of the south-southeast with a brief wind shift to the east for
Monday, turning back to the southeast by Tuesday evening.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24
hours. Generally moderate to breezy winds and partly to mostly
cloudy skies are also anticipated.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Tonight through Saturday night: Although gentle to moderate
south-southeasterly winds have returned to the Lower Texas
coastal waters, swell driven by the offshore pressure gradient and
convection over the western Gulf is expected to continue to result
in elevated seas and Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC)
headlines through the remainder of the period with 4 to 6 feet
waves. Aside from possible brief showers and/or thunderstorms this
afternoon, dry conditions are expected to continue.
Sunday through next Friday: Seas are expected to gradually lower
to slight (3 feet) throughout Monday, but begin to increase again
to moderate (4-6 feet, or higher) as a pressure gradient tightens
from the middle of the week and onward, resulting in increasing
southeasterly winds and SCEC and, or Small Craft Advisory.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 71 87 71 88 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 68 90 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 71 94 72 96 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 68 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 80 71 79 / 10 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 86 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-
455.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
944 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unsettled pattern this weekend creating chances for a
rain/snow mix for the lower elevations and advisory level snow
for the mountains.
- Active pattern next week bringing more chances for wind and
precipitation.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Latest radar loop was showing the precipitation starting to
finally pick on the rainfall developing behind the frontal
boundary which is now entering Laramie County. This front should
bank up gainst the Laramie Range tonight with good upslope flow
developing behind it which should favor light to moderate
rainfall tonight. There still some uncertainty where the
frontogenesis band will be setting up. The latest Hi Res.
models differ a bit on its placement. The latest HRRR is
shifting this band of precipitation south extending from Kimball
to Alliance, but the NAM is further north. We did bump snow
amounts a bit along the Pine Ridge since it does appear like a
quicker changeover is possible and the close proximity of the
band. Otherwise, current forecast looks to be in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
An active weather pattern bringing much-needed springtime
precipitation will be the main story throughout the short-term
forecast period. Afternoon satellite imagery reveals increasing
cloud cover throughout much of southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska this Friday afternoon. A broad trough located over the
western CONUS continues inland with one particular wave of
energy moving through the Great Basin/Central Rockies. This
system will bring the first of two rounds of precipitation
through our region this evening and through the overnight hours.
Initial activity with this system will be widely scattered,
with generally short bursts of rain and a rain/snow mix in the
mountains due to a more convective mode as evidenced by a small
amount of mid-level instability in forecast soundings. Short-
term forecast soundings from high- res guidance indicate
increasing saturation throughout the column later this afternoon
and into the evening hours. As such, expect a transition to a
steady light rain over the area overnight. A cold front is also
expected to drop south through the high plains this evening,
greatly reducing temperatures and increasing saturation in the
post-frontal boundary layer. The interaction between this
advancing frontal boundary from the north and increasing
moisture from the west may result in one or two bands of heavier
precipitation, generally along or just east of I-25 tonight.
High- res forecast guidance has suggested the potential for this
scenario in several iterations of guidance today for the
overnight period. While spatial consistency of the location of
heaviest rain remains quite varied, there is at least a 60
percent chance of greater than 0.3" of rain from this overnight
system, with some locations possibly seeing 0.75 to 1" of liquid
by Saturday morning. In the mountains, snowfall will generally
be limited to locations above 9000 feet due to high snow levels.
The Sierra Madre still looks to receive the most snow due to
favorable upslope flow, where an advisory for over 6" of snow
remains in effect.
A brief period of NVA/subsidence moves through on Saturday late
morning/early afternoon which will result in a lull in activity
at this time over southeast Wyoming and far western Nebraska.
However, quickly on the heels of the first wave comes a
secondary mid- level low pressure system which will pass through
the central Rockies/high plains Saturday evening through Sunday
morning. This round of precipitation will likely be a bit more
convective in nature due to several factors. Once cloud cover
clears on Saturday afternoon in the wake of our first system,
seasonably high boundary layer moisture will remain present. Any
breaks in the cloud cover will result in strong solar heating.
With seasonably high surface moisture present as well as cooler
air aloft in place, low-end instability values on the order of
200-500 J/kg of SBCAPE could result in a few low-topped
thunderstorms in both southeast Wyoming and far western
Nebraska. One caveat to the convective forecast will be a more
aggressive cold front with thicker cloud cover that limits
daytime heating. Regardless, as the main mid-level low passes
through on Saturday evening and overnight, scattered rain
showers will mix with and eventually change to light snow as
temperatures drop on Sunday morning. QPF totals will be more
variable with this second round event given the scattered nature
of precipitation, but a general 0.2 to 0.4" range of liquid
totals is expected.
Overall, much needed rainfall will give some drought relief to
the entire area this weekend, with a chance that some locations
may see close to or more than 1" of liquid east of the Laramie
Range. Forecast confidence is moderate through the period with
some uncertainty still remaining with regard to snowfall totals
in the Snowy and Laramie Range foothills on Sunday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Sunday...Even colder with 700 mb temperatures near -6 Celsius
yielding high temperatures from the mid 30s to mid 40s. With nearly
saturated low and mid levels, dynamics from a passing shortwave
trough aloft and upslope, we will still see scattered to numerous
showers, mostly snow, mainly in the morning.
Monday...Turning breezy to windy, and warmer as the flow aloft turns
westerly, inducing downslope winds. High temperatures mainly in the
50s. Enough moisture in the flow for some orographic showers over
the mountains and nearby lower elevations.
Tuesday...A progressive and fast moving shortwave trough aloft moves
from Idaho to northern Wyoming during the day, with an associated
cold frontal passage. Most of the lift with this system is progged
to remain to our north, however, we will still see enough lift for
scattered showers.
Wednesday...Low amplitude shortwave ridging aloft builds across
Wyoming. Will continue with a mention of a chance for mainly
snow showers in the cyclonic flow aloft.
Thursday...Relatively moist southwest flow aloft develops, helping
to produce scattered showers, mainly over the mountains.
Temperatures will also show a warming trend with 700 mb temperatures
near -7 Celsius yielding maximum temperatures from the lower 40s
west of I-25, to the upper 40s to mid 50s further east.
Friday...Broad troughiness develops over our forecast area, and with
adequate moisture aloft, we should see at least a chance of rain and
snow in the cyclonic flow aloft, although the bulk of the
precipitation looks to be off to our southeast. Continued seasonably
cool with all the cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 459 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Southwest flow aloft will continue. A passing weather
disturbance and cold front will bring widespread rain and snow
to the region tonight and Saturday.
Wyoming TAFS...Ceilings near 8000 feet will lower to 2500 feet
after 04Z to 06Z, with light rain reducing visibilities to
4 miles, then ceilings will increase to 4000 to 8000 feet after
15Z Saturday. Winds will gust to 25 knots until 02Z.
Nebraska TAFS...Ceilings will lower to 8000 feet after 01Z, then
lower further to 2500 feet after 06Z, with light rain and fog
reducing visibilities to 2 miles, then light snow will develop
at Chadron and Alliance after 12Z, with light rain continuing at
Scottsbluff and Sidney. After 19Z, ceilings will improve to
4000 to 5000 feet. Winds will gust to 34 knots until 01Z.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Saturday for WYZ112.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
655 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy conditions continue through the afternoon and evening,
diminishing overnight.
- A few showers northwest late this evening, more widespread
shower and thunderstorm chances into Saturday with a few
stronger storms possible (Marginal Severe Risk - Level 1 of
5).
- Cooler air pushes south Sunday with lingering spotty showers,
snow may mix in north.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Plenty of sunshine across the area today and strong warm air
advection into the area. Temperatures this afternoon have
soared into the upper 70s to low 80s across the area with a few
locations making a run into the mid 80s. At the same time, deep
mixing through dry low levels has led to southwest winds gusting
35-40+ mph with a few sites recording spotty gusts near 45 mph.
Relative humidity has remained around 40% or higher in most
places which has helped to mitigate worse fire weather, though
conditions remain elevated and a few fires have been reported
this afternoon. One larger fire is easily identified with a
large plume on the KDMX on radar this afternoon.
Late this evening and overnight a low to the northeast and southwest
induces a corridor of weak lift. A few CAMs develop spotty
convection along this boundary however there isn`t a lot of moisture
to work with which will hinder development. RAP remains the
more robust solution. Into Saturday morning the low across the
central plains will lift into the midwest, allowing for better
lift and moisture transport into the area. Showery activity
across northern Iowa is expected through the day. By evening the
associated surface cold front pushes across Iowa and a line of
thunderstorms is expected to develop. Right now most model
soundings indicate elevated instability of 1000 J/kg so any more
robust storm could develop some hail, but the overall severe
threat is low at this time. As the deformation zone wraps around
on Sunday with colder air filtering in some snow is expected to
mix in across northern Iowa. The band of notable snow
accumulations remains to the north of the area, however a slushy
couple tenths of snow is possible far north. Will need to fine
tune this with timing of the cold air and warm ground
temperatures, along with band placement, to better determine any
impacts to the area.
The upcoming week starts off cool with behind the weekend
system but temperatures look to recover back into the low 60s
towards the middle of the week. It also looks to remain active
with another larger system on track to impact the area by the
middle of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
VFR conditions in high cloudiness can be expected into the
evening with diminishing winds as well. A frontal boundary
should gradually progress NW-SE into the state Saturday however
affecting KFOD, KMCW, and KALO through 00z, with some increase
in chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms along
with winds becoming northeasterly. MVFR/IFR stratus is expected
behind the frontal passage as well. Thunder is possible too,
but confidence is insufficient to mention at this lead time.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Small
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
600 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gusty winds up to 40 mph expected on Saturday.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms become possible (15 to 30
percent chance) Saturday night into Sunday morning. Hail is
the primary threat, but damaging wind gusts are also possible.
- Cooler and drier conditions return for Sunday into the early
part of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Active weather pattern continues into the weekend. Today weak
mid level ridging along with southerly flow will allow
temperatures to soar back into the upper 70s to low 80s. Today
we will be well above normal for the second day in a row. For
reference the average highs across the area for late March is
the upper 50s to low 60s. A surface low northwest of the area
has increased the pressure gradient, allowing for gusty
southwesterly winds today. Gusts as high as 35-40 mph will be
the norm this afternoon. We should continue to stay just below
wind advisory criteria so no products have been issued this
afternoon. Additionally, relative humidity has stayed elevated
today and should stay above 40% at most locations, so fire
weather will not be a concern for our area today.
As we head into Saturday, the day time hours should be fairly
quiet in our area with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Winds
out of the south will be weaker, but gusts up to 30 mph will still
be possible. After that our attention turns to the next approaching
system as a trough pushes east into the forecast area. Ahead of
that, moisture surges into the region and a cold front pushes
through Kansas. Warm air aloft will prevent storm initiation until
later in the day with the arrival of the front and erosion of the
CAP. By mid afternoon, expect storms to initiate across central
Kansas and track east into our forecast area overnight. Uncertainty
remains with exact timing of the front, although models have come
into better agreement that impacts to our area would be primarily
after sunset on Saturday with the exception of a very short window
early on. With the expected timing of the front, robust or surface
based storms look to remain primarily west of the area, although
there is potential for a stronger storm in far northwest parts of
the area around 0z. As for storm evolution, expect isolated storms
to initiate in conjunction with the arrival of the shortwave and
cold front in central Kansas, then quickly merging into a line as it
approaches our area. Storms will primarily be elevated for much of
our area, however hail is still a concern along with gusty winds
(especially early in the event). Additionally there is uncertainty
with how far east the severe threat will last, but regardless the
the threat exists (especially western parts of the area). As we head
toward morning, renewed convection is anticipated in convection with
an increasing low level jet through southeastern parts of the area.
While there is still some variability in the CAMs, thing the 12z
HRRR aligns well with the conceptual model with a line of storms
pushing through overnight, with more storms pushing in for the
southwest prior to sunrise. Storms are expected to move out of the
area by Sunday morning with mainly dry weather expected after that.
Otherwise, as the system pushes east of the area on Sunday, dry
conditions return along with northerly winds. Cold air lags behind
the front a bit, but we can expect Sunday to be well below average
with highs only reaching the mid 50s for most. Heading into Monday,
similar chilly conditions are expected with highs only reaching low
50s across most of the area. After that, a quasi-zonal upper pattern
is expected for the mid week. Temperatures return back to the mid
60s which is near normal for early April. Dry weather is expected
for Monday and Thursday. Our next chance for precipitation arrives
on Tuesday night into Wednesday as a deepening trough pushes into
the Northern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
during this period. Dry weather is expected to return for Thursday
with temperatures in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Breezy conditions will continue this evening, with south winds 10
to 20 kt and gusts to 30 kt through 06z before diminishing to
around 10 kt overnight. Low clouds should fill in after 06z, with
probabilities for MVFR > 70 percent by 09z. Low clouds will likely
be difficult to erode tomorrow morning and may take into early
afternoon before cloud bases lift to VFR thresholds. Winds will
diurnally increase again by late morning, with speeds of 15 to
20 kt and gusts to 30 kt again by afternoon.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...CMS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
734 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front settling south across the forecast area will help
provide a focus for thunderstorm develop this
evening/tonight...mainly affection portions of south central
NE along/north of I-80. Some strong-marginally severe storms
remain a possibility...hail near quarter size/wind gusts near
60 MPH are the primary threats.
- Precipitation chances continue across the forecast area this
weekend...with the overall best chances looking to be focused
across south central Nebraska. Storm chances linger through
Saturday evening (severe weather currently not
anticipated)...with the potential for some snow to mix in
across NNW areas Sat night into Sunday. Notable snow
accumulations are not expected.
- Following high temperatures Thu/today in the 70s-80s, this
front moving through this weekend will result in quite a range
in highs on Saturday (mid 40s NNW to mid 70s SSE0, with highs
more solidly in the 40s-near 50 for Sunday.
- Periodic precipitation chances return to the forecast Monday
night through the end of the work week...the best overall
chances are focused on the Tue-Tue night time frame, as a
stronger storm system moves into the Northern/Central Plains.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 733 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
The Red-Flag Warning has been allowed to expire.
Visible satellite shows cumulus bubbling up near the arriving
cold front. Latest runs of HRRR have shown increased coverage
of thunderstorms MCK up to GRI/ODX through the evening and into
tonight. No change to threats mentioned above (marginally severe
hail/wind).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Currently through tonight...
Dry but windy conditions reign across much of the area this
afternoon...with spotty bouts of upper level cirrus keeping
skies generally partly cloudy. Looking aloft, upper air and
satellite data showing west-southwesterly flow in place across
the Central Plains...set up between one area of low pressure
sliding east across TX, another moving into the Pac NW, while a
shortwave disturbance is making its way into the Four Corners
region. At the surface, a cold front lies WSW-ENE from WNW
Nebraska up into eastern SD, with a southward extending trough
axis running roughly along the KS/CO border. No surprises as far
as winds go...with gusts occurring area- wide thanks to a
tightened pressure gradient ahead of that deepening Higher
Plains troughing. Even far western areas have gusted between
25-35 MPH this afternoon...central and eastern areas have been
closer to 35-45 MPH. At the end of the day, forecast highs look
to work out fairly well, with low-mid 80s for most, a few more
in the upper 80s. Dewpoints have been slow to mix out as
expected this afternoon...here at 3PM far WNW locations are
mainly in the lower 40s, so relative humidity values are sitting
more in the 20-25 percent range vs 15-20 percent range. That
being said, will let the Red Flag Warning ride as is through 7PM
for WNW portions of the area.
This evening on through tonight, main focus turns to chances for
thunderstorms across portions of the area. As that upper level
disturbance currently over the Four Corners region continues to
slide northeast tonight, surface low pressure deepens along the
KS/CO border, helping pull that cold front further south into
the forecast area...roughly located along the NE/KS border in
the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Models even at this point still
vary with the timing/onset of any storms developing along that
front...and the overall coverage through the overnight hours.
Forecast preciptiation chances remain pretty broad, but are
still focused mainly across our south central NE counties.
Models including some of the recent HRRR runs show little/if any
activity through the overnight hours...others are more
optimistic things will develop as that southerly low-level jet
increases/noses into the heart of the forecast area. SPC
Mesoanalysis page shows a broad area of 1000-2000 j/kg of MUCAPE
across the area (closer to 1000 j/kg MLCAPE)...and while models
agree with instability waning with time this evening, the
sooner activity could get going the more it`d have to work with.
Deeper layer shear looks to increase to around 30-40kts...so
the potential for some storms to be strong-severe continues. SPC
Day 1 Marginal Risk remains in place across much our south
central NE counties around the expected location of that sfc-low
level boundaries...hail around quarter size and wind gusts
around 60 MPH would be the primary threats. The further south
into the forecast area you go, the lower any preciptiation
chances are...and especially our far south could end up being
outright dry tonight.
See climate section below on more about record high temps/warm low
temps for today.
This weekend...
Overall there hasn`t been any significant changes in the big
picture for Saturday and Sunday...with models still showing a
couple of upper level shortwave disturbances making their way
across the region.
The first, the above mentioned disturbance currently moving into
the Four Corners, looks to make its way northeast mainly
across western NE into SD during the day on Saturday.
Precipitation tonight driven by forcing from the LLJ should
diminish as the LLJ wanes in intensity/slides east during the
morning...but lift from the upper level disturbance itself looks
to bring more widespread chances to the area during the rest of
the day. Forecast precipitation chances remain broad...but
again are mainly focused across south central NE. Models showing
some lingering instability around...so the thunder mention
continues all day. At the surface, models are in pretty good
agreement showing the main low sliding east across at least
portions of our KS counties during the day...with accompanying
cold front and gusty NNW spreading east during the afternoon
hours. This sfc low/cold front will be the focus for additional
afternoon/evening thunderstorm development, with better
potential for strong-severe storms...at this point model timing
suggest that threat will be just ESE of the forecast area, but
not by much (see SPC Day 2 MRGL/SLGT risk areas). Any slowing
trend with the system/sfc front would drag that threat back to
the west, potentially into our forecast area.
The daytime passage of this system continues to create low
confidence in the temperature forecast, and especially for the
heart of the forecast area, the bust potential is up there.
Currently have around a 30 degree range for highs...with mid 40s
in the far NNW to mid 70s in the far SSE. Those middle areas,
including the Tri-Cities area, currently are mainly mid-50s to
near 60...but a faster passage would mean colder highs, a slower
passage would bring warmer highs.
Late Saturday night into Sunday...that second upper level
disturbance look to cross the Central Plains...but with relative
lack of moisture in the wake of the system moving through on
Saturday...confidence in there being much precipitation is not
high. Overall chances have decreased...now currently mainly
sitting in the 20-30 percent range...and come to an end a touch
sooner, by early evening vs later into Sunday night. With colder
air building into the area...still not out of the question that
some snow could mix in across NNW portions of the area...but
still not looking at more than a dusting or so at this point.
High temperatures on Sunday are solidly in the 40s across south
central NE, maybe some low 50s across north central KS. NNW
winds remain on the gusty side...gusts around 25-35 MPH are not
out of the question. Winds taper off Sunday night-Monday
AM...and overnight lows are currently forecast to drop into the
mid-upper 20s for most of the area.
New work week...
Models continuing to show generally zonal flow in the upper
levels sticking around...keeping the potential for periodic
disturbances/precipitation chances around. The daytime hours on
Monday remain dry...with chances picking back up Monday night,
and more so Tuesday-Tues night with the arrival of a stronger
upper level system. At this point, models showing us being on
the south side of the main upper low, which is moving through
the Dakotas...swinging the southward extending mid-upper trough
axis through the Central Plains. Still plenty of details to iron
out, but this could be the next chance for thunderstorms after
Saturday. Low confidence, low end (20 percent) precipitation
chances linger in the forecast through the rest of the week.
As far as temperatures go, Sunday still looking to be the
overall coolest day of the week...with highs in the 50s common
for Mon, Wed, Thursday...warmer on Tuesday in the 60s-low 70s
with that stronger system moving in. This system will also drive
stronger winds for Tue (southerly) and Wed (northwesterly).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Near-term model guidance is looking more favorable for
thunderstorm development in the 01-08Z timeframe this evening,
therefore the the PROB30 group was maintained.
After thunderstorms clear, winds turn to the north and lower
ceilings move in from the north. IFR conditions are expected to
arrive by 15Z Saturday, persisting through the rest of the
daytime hours. Additional rain showers are expected through the
day on Saturday as well.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 408 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
-- Regarding POTENTIAL record warm temperatures (both highs and
lows) today (Friday, March 28th) at Grand Island and Hastings
Airports, the 2 sites for which we issue official Record Event
Reports (RERGRI/RERHSI). Still have a bit of time left to reach
closer to those record highs this afternoon, and low
temperatures for the day will not be finalized until we are at
the end of the day, due to the potential temperatures could
cool more than what occurred this morning.
* Denotes a record currently forecast to be tied or broken *
-- For GRAND ISLAND (Central Nebraska Regional Airport):
- March 28th
*Warm Low Temp Record: 54 in 2007 (low so far today is 60)*
High Temp Record: 89 in 1986 (high so far is 83)
-- For HASTINGS (Municipal Airport):
- March 28th
*Warm Low Temp Record: 55 in 2007 (low so far is 59)*
High Temp Record: 84 in 1910 (high so far is 81)
PLEASE NOTE: In order for a record warm low temperature to
become official, it needs to "survive" the entire calendar day
(through midnight CST), and is not solely based on the early-
morning low.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Mangels
CLIMATE...ADP/Pfannkuch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
524 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Record/near record high temperatures expected today, see
CLIMATE section below.
- 5-10 percent chance of severe weather across portions of
Hitchcock and Red Willow county from around 7pm to 11om CT. Potential
hazards include 60 MPH wind gusts and hail up to 1 inch in
diameter.
- An active weather pattern is forecast tonight through Sunday
night with increasing chances for rainfall and in some
locations snowfall. Some intermittent blowing snow (30%
chance) is possible late Saturday night into Sunday morning
mainly along and west of Highway 27.
- A low pressure system anticipated to develop in eastern
Colorado Monday night will track eastward across the Central
Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night.. bringing impactful weather
(in one form or another) to the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
A surface trough continues to move across the area am seeing a
subtle wave within the flow across southern Colorado moving towards
the area. Due to the very dry low levels in place am not
anticipating any rainfall with this but some virga may be
possible through the afternoon hours across southern portions of
the area. There does continue to be a small threat for a strong
to marginally severe storm for Hitchcock/Red Willow counties
this evening but will be dependent on the positioning of a
surface convergence boundary. Should severe weather occur hail
up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph would be the main
threats and in the 7p-11pm timeframe. Confidence in severe
weather occurring is around 5%. Tonight a surface low is
forecast to develop across western Kansas which will advect some
additional moisture east to west into eastern Colorado with
mainly rain showers, although some very low MUCAPE is forecast
to be present so a rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out. With
this increase in moisture low stratus is also forecast to form
and move north to south across the area.
Saturday, will see a cold front stall out across the area leading to
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s across the south and upper 40s to
low 50s for highs across the north. Another shortwave off of the
Rockies is forecast to occur during the afternoon hours which is
forecast to lead to some shower and thunderstorm potential off of
the Palmer Divide. Assuming the front remains stalled out as
convection begins to develop a potential for some landspouts may be
possible as 200-400 j/kg of 0-3km CAPE is present across western
portions of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado. The only
thing going against the landspout potential is that lapse rates are
around 7-7.5 C/KM. NAMNest soundings also show some low topped
supercell potential with 40-45 knots of 0-6 shear and 400-500
MUCAPE. In subtle forcing environments the NAMNEST typical does do
the best of the CAMS as it is more aggressive and has more moist
bias to help initiation so that is what I`m tailoring my forecast
off of; it also is coinciding with what the RAP shows in regard to
700-500mb moisture as well.
Saturday evening, precipitation is forecast to continue across
east Colorado and moving into western Kansas in the form of
showers and thundershowers. Cold air advection is forecast to
increase through the evening and overnight hours and turn the
rain over to snow or at least a rain/snow mix. RAP and NAM both
show some MUCAPE remaining in place which brings some concern
for locally higher amounts via snowbands. The ECMWF ensemble
members have an overall good consensus of this occurring, but
the question is exactly where this will occur at as the members
all range in the final location. Should this snow band occur
then amounts of 3+ inches would be possible, the extent of the
impacts however would be the tricky part due to ground
temperatures being in the low 50s so how much of this will be
able to maintain on roadways, sidewalks etc... Winds are
forecast to be breezy from the north gusting 25-30 mph which
would have a 30% chance of leading to some sporadic blowing snow
conditions according to the Aberdeen Blowing Snow Model, so
have introduced patchy blowing snow into the forecast. A
blizzard is not expected at this time. The snow is forecast to
be a wetter snow which will help keep the blowing snow concerns
at bay for the most part. Low temperatures as well are forecast
to fall into the mid to upper 20s so anyone that got a little
spring fever over the past few days will want to ensure any
plants are protected from this hard freeze.
Into Sunday, high temperatures are forecast to remain in the 40s to
mid 50s across the area in wake of the cold front. Precipitation
is forecast to come to an end during the morning hours. During
the afternoon and evening hours yet another shortwave is
forecast to traverse across mainly southern portions of the area
in the form of another rain/snow mix. Another hard freeze is
forecast as low temperatures are forecast to fall into the low
to mid 20s across the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
The extended period begins on Monday with a tightening surface
pressure gradient coinciding with an increasing 850mb jet during the
afternoon hours across the area bringing breezy winds during the day
of around 35-30 mph. Behind the gradient, a developing surface low
is seen across southeast Colorado as well. A surface high keeping
cool temperatures across the eastern counties looks to remain
in place as well. Mid level troughing is forecast to begin to
increase Monday night and continuing with an active pattern
through the remainder of the week.
As for any potential hazards, it will completely depend on
where positioning of the troughs and where exactly due to the
surface lows through the week set up at. For Tuesday, a general
consensus between GEFS ensemble members is that a low is
forecast to set up across northern portions of the forecast area
into western Nebraska. If this is the case then thunderstorms
may be possible as moisture would be able to advect further
north. However if it ends up setting up further south then fire
weather concerns would increase; so continue to stay up to date
with the latest forecasts. The current forecast does currently
have southern portions of the area seeing multiple hours of
critical fire weather conditions at this time. Temperatures for
this period do look to be fairly variable and highly dependent
on the positioning of the synoptic features. Tuesday is
forecast to be the warmest day with high temperatures in the
low 60s to the mid 70s across the area. The remainder of the
week is forecast to be near normal to slightly below normal with
highs in the 50s and 60s currently.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Cold front will move through KMCK around 02-03z and KGLD around
06-07z with surface winds shifting to northerly and increasing
in speed to 15-20kts with gusts 20-30kts through the overnight
hours. Low ceilings associated with wraparound moisture will
arrive towards 12z at both terminals, with IFR likely through
Saturday morning. Ceilings should return to VFR at KGLD by early
afternoon, but may remain IFR at KMCK through the end of the TAF
period. An occasional shower is possible at KMCK through the day
Saturday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1222 AM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Record high temperatures Friday, March 28:
Goodland..........89F back in 1963
Hill City.........90F back in 1963
McCook............86F back in 1963
Burlington........83F back in 1962
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...024
CLIMATE...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
916 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
New Information added to update section
.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
A mix of winter and spring occurring at the same time this
evening, with strong to marginally severe storms occurring
over the southern 3/4 of the CWA, and freezing rain potential
over the far north. The convective threat should gradually
wane later this evening, then drop off significantly during the
overnight hours.
Have already verified some minor icing occurring over western
Vilas County, and with surface temps/wet bulb temps already around
freezing and additional frontogenetic forcing expected for most
of the night, expect additional icing (around a tenth of an inch).
Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Vilas, Oneida, Forest,
Florence and northern Marinette counties through 7 am Saturday.
UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
A couple areas of convection were increasing early this evening;
one in association with strong mid-level GFEN forcing in far
northern WI, and another in SE MN/WC WI north of the surface warm
front. The southernmost area of convection was the strongest, as
it was forming where MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg and deep
layer shear of 45-50 kts existed. A couple of these cells could
produce marginally severe hail as they move through central WI
this evening. Instability drops off a bit farther east, so not
sure if the storms will maintain their intensity as they push
toward the Fox Valley/lakeshore areas.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 30-50% chance of thunderstorms across the forecast
area tonight. Some of the stronger storms could produce small
hail. Isolated hail reports over an inch are possible.
- A significant ice accumulation is possible across north- central
and far northeast Wisconsin from early Saturday evening through
Sunday afternoon. There is a 60-90% chance that the area between
Merrill and Iron Mountain will see at least 0.25" of ice
accumulation.
- The freezing rain could create significant disruptions in
travel, along with damage to trees and power outages. Ice Storm
Warnings and a Winter Storm Warning have been issued for north-
central and far northeast Wisconsin.
- Precipitation totals are likely (40-70%) to be greater than 1
inch throughout the event, which could lead to fast flows and
minor flooding along the shorelines of area rivers and streams
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Short Term...Tonight Through Sunday Night
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show low
pressure tracking east across eastern South Dakota early this
afternoon and a warm front extending east from this low to about
Sheboygan. After some morning thunder across parts of central to
east-central WI, precipitation has been relatively quiet through
early this afternoon. Freezing drizzle remained patchy this
across north-central WI this morning where cloud bases didn`t get
nearly as low as models forecasted yesterday. As the low tracks
east, the first focus of this forecast remains on thunderstorm
potential tonight. This focus will be followed by a potential ice
storm on Saturday night into Sunday as the next surface wave
tracks along the front.
Thunderstorm Potential Tonight: As low pressure tracks along the
warm front, a strengthening low level jet will lead to increasing
moisture transport and mid-level fgen across far northern
Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula by early to mid evening. At the
same time, elevated instability upwards of 1000 j/kg will surge
into northern WI above a stout inversion centered at around 800mb.
Combined with precipitable water values above 200% of normal,
ingredients are coming together for a band of showers and storms
developing this evening generally north of a Tomahawk to Wausaukee
line. Effective shears of 40-50 kts and a cold thermal profile
will be favorable for hail. Large hail will be possible in the
strongest cells, particularly those that contain mid-level
rotation. The latest models have increased the amount of
precipitation across the far north and amounts from 0.50" to 1.00"
seem possible.
As the boundary layer cools overnight, minor freezing rain is
possible that could leave a light glaze on surfaces. But
precipitation will be ending as temperatures approach the freezing
mark, so don`t think significant icing will be possible. But there
may be just enough for a low end advisory. Road temperatures are
forecast to remain above freezing and that may mitigate impacts
from freezing rain. Will refrain from issuing a Advisory given the
short window and uncertainty about impacts.
Ice Storm Potential: A lull in the precipitation remains expected
on Saturday morning as the front stalls across southern WI and
light precip chances become highest over the southern Fox Valley.
But as upper level flow strengthens and backs ahead of the next
surface low, mid-level fgen will increase again on late Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning. As has been seemingly advertised
for days, the synoptic setup is very favorable for an ice storm
thanks to a 1030 mb high over northern Ontario feeding in cold air
into the region. Models are becoming in better agreement with the
track of the surface low and position of the freezing line,
thereby increasing confidence where the greatest threat for
significant icing will be located. The narrowing of solutions has
led to an increase of ice accumulations over north-central to far
northeast WI, where the greatest threat is centered. Most of the
freezing rain will fall between 7 pm Sat and 1 pm Sun. The latest
NBM indicates a 40-50% chance of a half inch or more of freezing
rain in a corridor from Rhinelander to Iron Mountain.
Moderate to heavy snow will be possible north of the mixed
precipitation which could result in several inches of snow
accumulations in addition to the ice accumulations.
Some mixed precipitation could make it into the Fox Valley and
lakeshore areas, but that should only fall for a short time on
late Sunday afternoon and evening.
In terms of headlines, the start of impactful icing doesn`t appear
to start until Saturday evening as temps fall to freezing and
solar insolation is not a factor across northern WI. That`s a
little early for warnings. But considering the increasing
confidence and potential for high impacts, will issue an Ice
Storm Warning for north-central to far northeast WI and a Winter
Storm Warning for Vilas county where 2-4 inches of snow is
expected. This will need to get bracketed by advisories, but will
let later shifts determine where and when to issues those and
leave the Winter Storm Watch in place.
Long Term...Monday Through Friday
Light snow will likely linger across the area on Sunday night that
could lead to a couple inches of snow and prolong the hazardous
travel across the region. After the low exits, below normal
temperatures are expected on Monday and Tuesday.
The next system remains on track to impact the region during the
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. A mix of rain and snow is
forecast with this system and some accumulations appear possible,
particularly over far northern WI.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Though the warm front was situated just south of GRB CWA early
this evening, low clouds have eroded in parts of C/EC WI. Farther
north, MVFR/IFR ceilings prevailed. Thunderstorms were developing
over far northern WI, where strong mid-level FGEN was occurring.
Other storms were developing north of the warm front in SE MN/WC
WI, and headed toward C WI. Think all of the TAF sites will have
potential for thunderstorms this evening, but left a mention out
of MTW for now, as confidence is lowest there.
As a wave of low pressure tracks east along the front, showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread tonight. The showers
should taper off from NW to SE later tonight into early Saturday,
but low clouds, light showers, drizzle and some fog should prevail
through Saturday morning. There could be a brief period of
freezing drizzle across northern WI, including the RHI TAF site,
late tonight into early Saturday, as surface temps drop to around
freezing. Moderate rain will lift north across the area Saturday
afternoon.
Overall, expect MVFR/IFR flight conditions to prevail.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ005-
010>013.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for
WIZ005.
Ice Storm Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for
WIZ010>013-018>021.
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening
for WIZ030-031.
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
afternoon for WIZ073-074.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
DISCUSSION.....MPC/MPC
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
656 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this evening
into the overnight hours, with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5)
in effect. The primary severe threat is large hail and gusty
winds.
- A strong cold front ushers in a potential return of wintry
weather conditions, most notably across the northern Sandhills
to the South Dakota border. Accumulations of 1-3 inches
possible this weekend.
- The upper level pattern remains fairly active next week, with
several chances of precipitation and slightly cooler to
seasonal temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
A strong cold front will continue to track south across South Dakota
this afternoon and track into Nebraska tonight. Ahead of the front,
dewpoints are in the 40s across portions of central Nebraska, with
afternoon highs in the 80s. There are some modest amounts of CAPE
across central Nebraska, however, there is a substantial cap across
most of the region. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that the
CAPE is mostly elevated, and thinking that any severe threat will
remain elevated as well. With the cold layers aloft, believe that
storms will have potential for some large hail, up to quarter sized,
if stronger convection can develop. The Storm Prediction Center
is maintaining the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across
southwest into north central Nebraska, along and east of a North
Platte to O`Neill line. There is a little bit of disagreement
remaining in the CAMs on convective initiation. The latest NAM
Nest unzips a line of convection along the front around sunset
in a line from Frontier County to Holt County pushing east, then
redeveloping convection around midnight. THe HRRR solution
favors the stronger capping, and limits convection until around
10 PM CDT, and much more limited to north central Nebraska.
Overnight, chances of rain continue across the Panhandle, with
showers pushing east into the morning. A shot of colder air pushes
into the region tomorrow morning, which will begin a switch from
rain to snow starting across the Pine Ridge. As the cold air
continues pooling into the region, snow tracks further south and
east across the northern Sandhills and north central Nebraska.
Accumulations remain difficult to pinpoint, as the snow is expected
to be more convectively driven. In fact, probabilistic lightning
data shows potential for thundersnow across portions of the
Sandhills into north central Nebraska tomorrow afternoon. This will
allow for narrow bands of heavier snowfall rates, which will likely
lead to pockets of reduced visibility. If the more intense snowfall
rates can overcome the warm soil temperatures (generally around 50
degrees based off 4 inch soil depth) and afternoon highs in the
upper 30s to lower 40s, could see some areas of accumulation across
northern Nebraska. This could lead to accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
across the northern Sandhills up to the Nebraska-South Dakota
border. However, if banding convection develops, locally heavier
amounts may be possible. Thinking that snow will generally be a wet,
heavy snow and should likely melt relatively quickly. Expecting that
snow tapers off Saturday night into Sunday morning. With the low
confidence in accumulations and in location of heavier banding, will
hold off on any winter weather headlines with this forecast.
Further south, precipitation is expected to remain rain, with even a
potential for a few rumbles of thunder in southwest Nebraska. This
may bring lighter amounts of precipitation across southwest
Nebraska, generally around one tenth to one quarter of an inch of
moisture. Given that this is more convectively driven showers, it
could be hit or miss on moisture. Later into the evening,
precipitation may see a switch over to snow, but accumulations are
generally not expected across southwest Nebraska, due to lighter
snowfall rates and warm soil temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
The upper level pattern remains quite active through next week,
bringing several chances of precipitation across the region. Sunday
and Monday look to remain on the drier side, with generally less than
a 30 percent chance of precipitation. High temperatures begin to
recover from the weekend, with highs reaching back into the 50s by
Monday.
Some uncertainty remains in a mid week system, which brings another
chance of meaningful precipitation across the region. The GEFS
solutions favor a warmer system, generally keeping precipitation as
rain across the region. The European solutions favor a cooler
solution bringing a mix of rain and snow across the region. However,
both ensemble solutions do indicate deepening low pressure, which is
expected to make for gusty conditions mid week. Will be continuing
to monitor this system over the coming days to see if the ensembles
come into more agreement.
By late week, precipitation chances remain generally under 30
percent, driven by a few shortwaves tracking through a larger trough
pattern. Highs are expected to remain in the mid to upper 50s, which
is slightly cooler than seasonal average. For reference, our
seasonal temperatures are around the low 60s, so we should not be
too far off typical for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Large changing to the sensible weather and aviation impacts are
expected over the next 24 hours.
Initially, the main concern will be timing a strong cool front
into North Platte currently diving south through the Sandhills.
Given recent progression and timing utilizing radar obs, expect
a passage around 29/0100-0130z. Will amend as necessary once a
more precise time becomes apparent. With passage of this front,
winds will abruptly shift to the north then northeast with a few
gusts nearing 30 knots. Can`t rule out a rogue stronger gust
closer to 40 knots but upstream obs have failed to validate this
so will omit for now.
Then, ceilings will gradually lower and precipitation increase
across the western Sandhills. Believe activity may encroach LBF/VTN
towards sunrise on Saturday. Precipitation type will favor rain
initially but a transition to a rain/snow mix appears likely at
VTN with timing favoring the afternoon. The combination of
moderate intensity precipitation and low CIGs will lead to MVFR
and even IFR conditions. Various guidance suggests closer to
LIFR for prolonged periods at VTN but will leave mention out for
now until confidence increases. Precipitation will wind down
towards the end of the forecast period with dry conditions for
much of the afternoon at LBF but lingering precipitation at VTN
beyond 30/00z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-208-209.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...NMJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
910 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 835 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
-Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday and Sunday,
with at least a 30% chance of severe weather Sunday night into
Monday.
-Dry weather is expected Monday and Tuesday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms increasing toward the middle and end
of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Latest satellite trends and 00Z upper air analysis places a mid-
level shortwave-trough over eastern Texas this evening. Favorable
lift ahead of this trough and the presence of a low-level jet is
increasing moisture across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Regional
WSR-88D radar trends show rain showers occurring over southern
Arkansas with rain-free conditions across the Mid-South where the
airmass remains substantially dry in the low to mid levels of the
atmosphere.
Latest 00Z NAM and the HRRR has been trending slower with the
onset of rain showers tonight due to the drier air in place. Thus,
some adjustments will be made to rain chances for the remainder of
the night. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is in good
shape.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
A shortwave centered over the Ark-La-Tex continues to advect warm
air into the Mid-South this afternoon. As of 3PM, surface
observations depict temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to mid
80s. A few light echoes are evident on radar. However, dry air is
keeping any precipitation from reaching the ground. This regime
will change on Saturday as Gulf moisture funnels into the area.
Showers will develop overnight and become more widespread by mid-
morning. Thunderstorm chances will increase in the afternoon, but
given a lack of SBCAPE, storms should remain sub-severe.
A complicated forecast emerges on Sunday as a low amplitude
shortwave traverses the Central Plains. Ahead of this feature,
moisture will surge as dewpoints climb into the mid 60s. In
addition, SBCAPE on the order of 1700 J/kg and bulk shear in
excess of 35 kts will be in place. A moderate capping inversion
will discourage storm development through the afternoon. However,
models do suggest an eventual erosion of this cap as mid-level
ascent increases in the evening. Convective initiation should
occur shortly after this with storms reaching the Mid-South in the
late evening time frame. Sounding analysis at this time depicts
curving hodographs, leading to an increased tornado threat. The
main concern will be a nighttime QLCS capable of damaging winds,
large hail, and a few tornadoes. However, it is important to note:
there is some signal that a confluence zone may develop ahead of
the main system. If this does occur, discrete storms may fire
earlier in the evening. These storms would pose a greater tornado
threat. Of course, the big caveat to this forecast lies in timing
of cap erosion. If the cap does not break, upscale storm growth is
not anticipated. We will continue to monitor the situation and
provide updates when available.
Dry and cooler conditions return on Monday before yet another
severe weather threat materializes on Wednesday. It remains too
early to tell exact specifics regarding this system, so stay
tuned.
ANS
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Multiple impacts to aviation expected within the forecast period.
BKN/OVC CIGs are currently building in over the region at 15 kft
and below. These CIGs will gradually lower through the night as
moisture continues to flow in from the south. Rain showers are
expected to begin around 12z at all terminals with MVFR CIGs. Rain
will continue through the day bringing CIGs down into IFR
throughout the afternoon. Some thunder is possible with heavier
showers through the end of the period, except for MEM where the
thunder chances decrease after 00z. Otherwise, southerly winds
above 10 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots are expected
through the period, especially after 12z tomorrow.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJC
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...JAB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
558 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very high to extreme fire danger across the forecast area this
afternoon, with a Red Flag Warning in effect through 8 pm
tonight. Otherwise, a chance (30% or less) of showers and
thunderstorms exists across our far north this evening.
- PoP chances continue into Saturday with 60-90% chance for rain
and thunder. A marginal risk of severe weather exists across
southeast and extreme eastern Nebraska into western Iowa for
the late afternoon into the evening hours Saturday.
- A rain/snow mix is possible (40-50%) across our far north
early Sunday morning with any lingering precipitation.
- Quiet conditions Monday, with next storm system impacting the
area on Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
.SHORT TERM.../Today through Saturday Night/
Clouds are starting to stream into the forecast area this afternoon,
as depicted by GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase imagery. Despite these clouds
filtering in, a warm day is observed across the eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa this afternoon as a warm front has trekked northward,
with temperatures currently in the mid to upper 80s north to upper
70s south. So far, a record high was broken today at Norfolk (record
high of 87F set in 1986; temperature of 88F reached at 2:45 pm this
afternoon). 20z 500 mb RAP objective analysis shows a weak ridge
across the Northern Plains this afternoon, with a few shortwaves
embedded within the southwesterly flow. At 850 mb, 20z objective
analysis shows a well defined low over northeast South Dakota/west
central MN, with a large chunk of eastern Nebraska within the warm
sector where a 30 to 40 kt LLJ is seen. BUFKIT soundings show ample
mixing up to 850 mb today across the CWA, with northeast Nebraska
mixing slightly higher above 800 mb. This mixing in combination with
the tightening sfc pressure gradient will lead to windy conditions
this afternoon. The mixing of dry air to the sfc coupled with the
windy conditions has led to the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for
this afternoon through 8 PM for very high to extreme fire danger
across eastern Nebraska and portions of western Iowa. Outdoor
burning is highly discouraged given that fires may spread rapidly
under these conditions.
As we head into the evening hours, the sfc low will continue to trek
eastward and drag along a cold front. Ahead of the cold front, an
LLJ develops and tries to bring in some Gulf moisture from the
south. CAMs try to generate a few elevated showers and thunderstorms
along this frontal boundary as a result, but low to mid level
forcing appears to be rather weak with this disturbance. 0-6 km
shear is around 30-35 kts, and with MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg, we
could see a few stronger storms that may produce some hail or gusty
winds. The Storm Prediction Center has an area generally north of I-
80 under a marginal risk for severe weather this evening. Our windy
conditions will gradually relax overnight as low temperatures reach
the low 40s north to mid 50s south.
By early Saturday morning, a shortwave will eject from the eastern
Colorado region and induce lee sfc cyclogenesis. Synoptic scale
forcing for ascent will be on the rise over a large portion of
Nebraska from this disturbance as the sfc low tracks across northern
Kansas and heads toward southeast Nebraska. This will result in the
gradual increase in coverage of PoPs during the daytime hours. As we
head toward the afternoon, the sfc low will continue inching closer
to southeast Nebraska, but it is worth noting that the placement of
the sfc low varies by CAM model choice which could have significant
impacts on when and where any convection may develop. BUFKIT
soundings and model output indicates these storms will most likely
be elevated in nature (aside from the HRRR which at times tries to
show surface based convection/instability across our far south),
with portions generally along and south I-80 seeing anywhere between
1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and marginal shear of 30 kts or so. This
will result in at least some threat for severe weather, with the
Storm Prediction Center highlighting portions of southeast into
extreme eastern Nebraska into Iowa in a marginal risk of severe
weather. The main threats with any storms that form will be strong
winds given a dry layer evident from soundings in the lower to mid
levels, and hail, given the wet bulb zero heights are close at times
to 10,000 ft. However, the best severe threat at this time appears
to be farther south into Kansas where instability is surface based.
Of particular interest today is how the 6z, 12z, and 18z HRRR runs
have been trying to develop a supercell somewhere across the
southern half of our forecast area (as has the 12z HiRes ARW), while
CAMs like the 12z NSSL WRF and NAM Nest show the bulk of convection
developing more into central Iowa. The 12z FV3 shows more of a
linear, bowing structure developing across our forecast area and
moving east Saturday evening. Regardless of which scenario plays
out, make sure to stay tuned to the forecast for further updates
regarding the severe potential. The severe potential will gradually
wane as we head into early Sunday morning.
.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/
Showers will linger into the early morning hours Sunday, and with
temperatures cooling into the low 30s across our north, we will see
a rain/snow mix there. Any accumulations will be very light, at
around a few tenths of an inch. Any remaining rainfall or rain/snow
mix will end by Sunday evening as the sfc low tracks well off to our
east. High temperatures Sunday will be in the low 40s north to the
50s south. Lows Sunday night will be rather chilly in the mid 20s
north to low 30s south.
Pleasant weather is expected for Monday as sfc ridging will make its
way into the forecast area with zonal flow aloft. Highs will be in
the mid 40s north to mid 50s across the south with light winds. By
Monday evening, the zonal flow aloft begins to break down, with a
shortwave disturbance ejecting from the Rockies again inducing lee
cyclogenesis. This will lead to lift gradually overspreading the
area during Tuesday with PoPs (generally greater than 50% north of I-
80) returning to the forecast. At this time, it looks like a
rain/snow mix will return early Tuesday morning before becoming rain
during the daytime Tuesday. A secondary shortwave feature will move
in by late Tuesday providing another reinforcing shot of lift,
helping continue PoPs into Wednesday, with some areas potentially
experiencing thunder, rain, or a rain/snow mix as indicated by the
NBM. Differences in feature placement are noted at this time given
how far out this system still is, so please stay tuned to the
forecast for the latest updates.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 549 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Primarily VFR conditions are expected through the overnight
hours. A line of showers and storms may develop over northeast
Nebraska between 00-02Z this evening. If and where exactly
thunder develops is still uncertain, but best guess is that it
could effect KOFK between 02-05Z. More showers and perhaps a few
rumbles of thunder will develop overnight, with precipitation
chances increasing Saturday morning. Ceilings and visibilities
will gradually deteriorate to MVFR and IFR through the morning
hours, with continued showers and storms through the day
Saturday.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-
069-079-090.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...KG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
610 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Localized, low-impact showers lingering for a few more hours
this evening mainly in higher elevations.
- Showers increase again Saturday, with snow levels lowering
close to valley floors around sunrise. Some valley locations
could see a mix or a brief change-over to snow at that time
with very light accumulations.
- A brief ridge of high pressure on Sunday will keep conditions
mostly dry ahead of a more active pattern building in for much
of next week with daily precipitation chances returning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Air quality has improved following dust intrusion from Nevada
behind cold front last night. Water vapor satellite imagery
shows two features of note. First is shortwave complex lifting
northeast out of desert southwest through Nevada/Utah, spreading
mid and high moisture north across the southern half of the
forecast area. A few light radar returns are associated with
this feature, expected to weakly fill in across the southeast
corner this afternoon and evening. The second feature is
shortwave lifting northeast through Oregon toward the Idaho
panhandle. This feature already producing isolated to scattered
showers across the central mountains. The shower activity will
continue to develop through the evening, and is expected to
spread into the remainder of the region along the Divide. A
brief break will be possible overnight behind this system.
By early Saturday morning, next feature ejects out of Pacific
low toward East Idaho as a weakly closed low. Showers redevelop
late Friday night and begin spreading across East Idaho. Expect
snow levels to lower toward valley floors Friday night. Some
regions could see snow levels lower enough for rain to mix with
or completely change over to snow around sunrise as snow. The
best chance for light accumulations at valley floors coincident
with the increasing chances of precipitation will occur in the
Eastern Magic Valley and Raft River regions. Probabilistic 6hr
snowfall accumulations support up to 1" of snowfall at the 90th
percentiles. Given the recent warm temperatures, the ground may
be too warm to support much accumulation with forecast lows
still just above freezing. Temperatures on Saturday cool a few
more degrees from today`s highs, with showers becoming more
widespread across East Idaho throughout the day. Snow levels
rise to an average of about 6000 ft elevation across the
forecast area, so valley rain/mountain snow should be the rule
for most areas. Shortwave feature shifts east overnight Saturday
night, pushing precipitation east through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Behind one shortwave trough, we get a very short-lived break in our
active precipitation pattern on Sunday as a weak, transient ridge
passes through Eastern Idaho. Highs on Sunday and Monday will be
nearly identical, in the upper 40s and low 50s across the eastern
Magic Valley and Snake River Plain with mild temperatures in the low
to mid 40s in our mid elevation towns. While Sunday is a drier day,
precipitation returns on Monday with valley rain and mountain snow.
Looking to Monday and Tuesday, IVT increases as we tap into some
more of the Pacific moisture available, with the NBM showing about a
70 percent chance of almost all of Eastern Idaho seeing at least a
tenth of an inch of QPF in the 48 hours from Monday morning to
Wednesday morning. It also shows about a 20 to 40 percent chance of
a quarter inch of QPF in the eastern Magic Valley and Snake River
Plain for the same time frame. Temperatures will be very near
freezing on Tuesday morning, so there is also the potential for some
light snowfall in the valleys, too, though we`re talking snow totals
generally less than an inch. In that 48-hour time range, we may be
looking at some low-end Winter Weather Advisory level snowfall for a
few of our mountain passes (about 6" of snow), particularly in the
Eastern Highlands, though it`s still a little too early to commit to
those snow totals. Highs remain in the 40s for Wednesday and
Thursday as our active pattern continues. Breezy winds are expected
each afternoon, too, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. It looks like gusts
will be a bit stronger on Tuesday afternoon, pushing closer to 40 or
even 45 mph in the eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake River Plain.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 607 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Regional radar and satellite trends suggest that varying degrees of
early evening mid-level cloud cover and potential showers are
generally not posing impacts for the immediate TAF terminals, and
even where radar echoes are close, temperature/dew point depressions
per the ASOS stations are running 20+ degrees...casting doubt on
whether any precipitation would actually be able to reach the
ground. Have generously held onto VCSH until 02z/8pm at KBYI, but
otherwise expect a slight clearing trend and break in our weather
regionwide overnight (with lighter winds...high confidence VFR)
until our next chance of precipitation arrives with an approaching
shortwave Saturday. Reviewing the high-res CAMs and the NBM
blend...confidence remains low on bonafide precip occurring at most
sites, so simply refined timing of VCSH and tweaked cigs in the 00z
TAFs that were just issued. Inherited -RA forecast at KBYI, and
while confidence isn`t really that great here either...a couple
models including the HRRR do continue to lean a bit more aggressive
with more solid/widespread precip, also associated with more
significant cig drops (borderline VFR/MVFR) on both the NBM and
HRRR, so nudged from -RA to -SHRA and refined timing at KBYI for
now. Bottom line...if it`s going to precipitate anywhere...KBYI is
the best candidate. Still seeing perhaps a 10% chance of a brief
switch to or mix with -SN at KBYI Saturday morning too, but the bulk
of guidance is likely JUST warm enough (even when wet-bulbing out in
a saturated column) to keep precip type as rain. Overall shower
potential starts at 13z/7am at KSUN and KBYI, and then holds off
until 17-20z/11am-2pm at KPIH/KIDA/KDIJ, continuing through the
afternoon with likely some help from diurnal heating. No guidance
currently supports anything lower than VFR cigs/vsbys for these
three latter terminals at this time (so expecting this to be a low-
impact shortwave), although we`ll have to reevaluate KDIJ Saturday
night (just beyond the end of the current TAF period) for perhaps
some lingering moisture or lower cigs. HREF MUCAPE doesn`t exceed
100 J/kg and unedited NBM probs don`t support thunder, so feeling
reasonable confidence in keeping thunder out of the picture too.
Finally, a SW crosswind at up to 10kts is now forecast Saturday
afternoon at KSUN (hinted at in MOS guidance, which...believe it or
not...still does a decent job at picking up on our SW wind days in
the Wood River Valley). Looking ahead, Sunday so far is looking
drier and VFR with some mid to high-level cloud cover.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Temperatures have cooled enough across East Idaho behind the
passage of the cold front last night to significantly slow the
low and mid-elevation snow melt and runoff. Although showers are
expected through the weekend into next week, temperatures are
also expected to continue a slow decline, with overnight lows
forecast to drop to around or just above freezing, including at
lower elevations. This should further mitigate the accelerated
runoff of the previous warm spell. Localized impacts will still
be possible, but widespread impacts are not anticipated.
Therefore, the Hydrologic Outlook will not be updated today.
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...KSmith
HYDROLOGY...DMH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
851 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 848 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
- Severe weather potential increases Saturday night into Sunday.
- Unsettled mid / late week with severe weather potential late
Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 848 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Current forecast for tonight is on track with only minor modifications
needed to better reflect current trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight-Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Rain coverage has been on the decrease this afternoon, with only
spotty showers possible thru tonight across far eastern OK into
western AR.
Focus of this forecast continues to be in the Saturday night into
Sunday time frame. A transition to an active SWrly flow pattern
aloft will occur, with the initial shortwave trough and mid-level
jet punching into the Plains this weekend. At the surface by late
Saturday, a cold front will be advancing southeast across KS with
a triple point/weak frontal low setting up over NW OK, with the
dryline extending south over far western OK. We`re now into the
CAM time frame, and the 06Z and 12Z runs of the HRRR as well as
the HREF suggest that we stay dry thru 00Z with development from
near the triple point on up the front into KS during the evening.
The 06Z and 12Z EC are showing development a bit farther south
along the dryline, but this solution is in the minority when
compared to most CAMs and other global models. If the storms on
the southern end can remain more cellular, cyclonically curved
hodographs in the low levels suggest an environment favorable for
higher impact severe weather into NE OK (more likely closer to
the KS border) Saturday night. The 12Z HRRR suggested that storms
may have a tendency to be more outflow dominant, suggesting that
damaging wind would be more of a threat than tornadoes, but trends
will need to be monitored. Eventually this activity will run out
of steam toward daybreak Sunday morning.
The global models are faster with the front compared to yesterday,
especially the EC and UKMET. Both of these models initiate storms
in the SE OK/west-central AR border vicinity Sunday afternoon.
Instability and deep-layer shear are favorable for severe storms,
but hodographs are more straight and show much less low level
shear compared to Saturday night. This suggests that hail and wind
would be primary threats with the initial storms before they
shift east of the area by evening.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
The work week will start off cooler than average and quiet, but in
the spring things change quickly. The next strong shortwave trough
will move into the Plains toward midweek, with strong to severe
storm potential starting Tuesday night and continuing into
Wednesday. Some severe potential may linger in the southeast thru
the end of the week depending on where the frontal boundary lies.
The 12Z EC keeps the warm sector just out of our area during this
time, but of course this is subject to change. The boundary could
also focus a heavy rain axis that could be near or just into our
CWA as multiple rounds of storms track over the same areas thru
the end of the week. After a system moves across next weekend, a
big pattern change is in store that would bring cooler and much
quieter weather to the region for at least a week.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025
Scattered to broken mid clouds this evening are expected to again
become broken/overcast MVFR ceilings late evening into the
overnight hours tonight as the backside of an area of low pressure
lifts northeast through the region. A few isolated showers remain
possible across parts of western Arkansas tonight with the exiting
low. However, the greater potential looks to be east of KFSM and
will hold off on adding additional mentions of precip tonight.
Late tonight into Saturday morning there is potential for a period
of IFR conditions over the CWA before ceilings begin to rise back
to low end VFR late morning into the afternoon hours Saturday.
Scattered to broken mid clouds are forecast for the CWA late in
the TAF period. Winds through the period start out breezy from
the south and weaken some overnight before increasing again out of
the south during the day Saturday. The exception will again be
KFSM where a period of easterly winds are forecast late tonight
into Saturday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 60 82 58 70 / 0 10 50 20
FSM 61 83 64 81 / 30 10 30 40
MLC 60 82 63 78 / 10 10 20 30
BVO 55 83 51 66 / 0 10 70 20
FYV 58 80 63 77 / 30 20 40 50
BYV 60 78 64 77 / 20 20 30 50
MKO 59 81 61 75 / 10 10 30 30
MIO 59 80 58 70 / 10 10 70 40
F10 59 81 61 75 / 10 10 20 20
HHW 60 78 63 80 / 30 10 20 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20