Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/28/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
804 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Thunderstorm activity continues in the northwestern combined
Panhandles. While these storms are producing lightning, lower cloud
tops and an unfavorable mesoscale environment should disallow
these storms from approach severe limits. Especially now, since
we are losing the day time heating component. 18Z NAM products and
even the 00Z HRRR are showing signs of storms continuing and
expanding slightly further east over the next few hours. Though RH
values are relatively dry in the surrounding areas of the ongoing
storms, the light precipitation seems to be influencing the near
storms environment. We are seeing locally high dewpoint values
from the mesonet sites in Cimarron county. After about 10 PM,
mixed layer CAPE should decrease below thresholds that would allow
thunderstorm updrafts to carry on. Thus activity will sharply
tapper off for the rest of the evening.
Rangel
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
- Thunderstorms with gusty winds and little rain possible in the
western and central Oklahoma Panhandle and the western Texas
Panhandle.
- Thunderstorms possible in the central Panhandles along a dryline
Friday afternoon.
- Critical fire weather conditions next Tuesday possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
A few showers and thunderstorms started to develop over the Black
Mesa in northern Union County this afternoon. These showers and
and storms are expected to continue to develop and expand. They
may move into our northwest CWA late this afternoon and early
this evening. This activity is developing in an axis of better 700
mb theta-e air. There is also some surface convergence in this
area. Any showers or thunderstorms should decrease with the
setting sun, so we are not expecting them to get too far into the
Panhandles.
A dryline is expected to set up in the central Panhandles Friday
afternoon. It is unclear if this dryline will cause some showers or
thunderstorms during the peak heating of the day. For now, have
added some small chances of showers and storms in the central
Panhandles late afternoon through the early evening.
Goehring
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
An upper level short wave trough will move across the Panhandles on
Saturday. This trough will help to increase west winds behind a
Pacific front. Winds could be in the 20 to 30 mph range, especially
across the west closest to the tightest pressure gradient.
A cold front passes through the Panhandles on Saturday night. This
will cool back high temperatures some 10 to 20 degrees for Sunday.
The flow aloft will remain pretty progressive through the late
weekend into the early week with minor disturbances moving through
the flow. The next "windy" and dry day should be Tuesday as an
upper level trough pushes through the Rockies and onto the plains.
Models do not agree with the timing or the strength of this system,
but the pattern is looking fairly windy.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours. Cloud decks over any
TAF site are expected to remain above 20,000 ft. Wind speeds will
stay breezy through the rest of the day, but should decrease later
tonight as we head into early Friday morning. Tomorrow afternoon,
wind speeds will ramp up again at all sites. The mean 24 hour
wind direction should be west-southwesterly.
Rangel
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 50 84 53 82 / 0 20 20 0
Beaver OK 50 85 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 47 85 48 76 / 30 0 0 0
Borger TX 52 88 55 85 / 0 20 20 0
Boys Ranch TX 50 87 51 81 / 20 0 0 0
Canyon TX 50 84 51 80 / 0 20 20 0
Clarendon TX 50 83 54 84 / 0 10 10 0
Dalhart TX 46 84 46 77 / 20 0 0 0
Guymon OK 50 86 49 79 / 10 20 20 0
Hereford TX 48 85 48 80 / 10 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 51 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
Pampa TX 51 83 54 83 / 0 20 20 0
Shamrock TX 50 80 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
Wellington TX 51 80 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...55
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1200 AM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds gradually build in this evening as a weak disturbance
produces isolated to scattered rain and snow showers,
especially prior to midnight. A stronger storm system will
impact the region beginning late Friday and into the weekend
with rain showers. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer
through the weekend and into the start of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
1200 AM Update...
Showers continue to pass through the region. Slight adjustments
were made to PoPs. Even though conditions are quite dry, light
precipitation is reaching the ground. Temperatures were touched
up to better match the latest observations which also did result
in small changes to the expected lows. The rest of the forecast
was doing well.
900 PM Update...
A weak shortwave disturbance is moving through the area late
this evening. KBGM radar is picking up some light returns, but
surface dew point depressions are running 20 to near 30 degrees,
with current dew points still in the 10s. Things are starting to
slowly moisten up, but am only expecting a few scattered light
rain and snow showers between now and about 2 AM for portions of
CNY, with QPF amounts of only a hundredth or two expected.
Minor tweaks and adjustments based on the latest data for
Friday`s forecast...the main challenge continues to be timing
the incoming rain...with the HRRR and 3km NAM being faster,
bringing showers in by mid to late afternoon...but other members
slower, holding off until closer to sunset. Soundings do show a
dry pocket of air in the mid levels, so the later timing could
be more on track.
400 PM Update...
Clouds will gradually build in this evening and skies are
expected to become partly to mostly cloudy as a quick-moving
upper level shortwave and surface cold front move through the
area tonight. Moisture will be limited, so showers will be
isolated to scattered in nature, mainly from the Twin Tiers
northward. Most of this shower activity is expected between
01-06Z. Showers can mix with or even change over to some wet
snow across the higher terrain of CNY, the Catskills and toward
the Tug Hill, but little, if any, accumulation is expected. Lows
tonight will be mainly from the upper 20s to the mid 30s, with
mid 20s toward the Tug Hill.
High pressure will briefly build back in early tomorrow leading
to a dry start to the day. Some sunshine early will fade behind
an increase in clouds as a warm front begins to approach from
the south and west. Scattered showers will start to break out
ahead of the front tomorrow afternoon and will spread north and
east late in the day and into tomorrow evening. Highs tomorrow
will be from the upper 40s to the upper 50s with some places in
the Wyoming Valley and Delaware River Valley in NE PA nearing
60 degrees. It will be noticeably cooler though across northern
Oneida County in the low to mid 40s. As the front lifts
northward, showers will persist tomorrow night, and look to be
most numerous north of the Southern Tier. A wide range in low
temperatures is expected tomorrow night with lows mainly from
the low 40s to near 50 degrees, and temperatures will be non-
diurnal in nature, especially south of the I-90 corridor, rising
during the overnight hours. North of the NYS Thruway corridor
will be noticeably cooler with WAA falling short of the area
prior to daybreak with lows from the low 30s to near 40 degrees.
With temperatures dipping into the low 30s in northern Oneida
County, there can be some wet snow mixed in at the onset of
precipitation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A frontal boundary looks to setup near or over our region with a
wide range in temperatures. We should be firmly in the warm sector
Saturday. Modeled boundary layer temperatures suggest we could get
into the 70`s for highs as the yo-yo pattern continues. The warm
front should continue to shift a bit north along with the focus for
the highest chances of showers during the day. A slight shift
southward of the frontal boundary is then expected Saturday night
Sunday with additional waves of light showers. Temperatures look to
fall in the 40`s with more locations on the north end of the
boundary.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The frontal boundary continues to be across the region Sunday with
additional rounds of showers looking like a good bet. If the frontal
boundary surges far enough north some instability and thunderstorm
potential may be present as well Monday. The environment looks
highly sheared ahead of the front as well. So if we do get some
instability as the ECMWF suite shows a potential for strong to
severe storms would exist. The front finally looks to sweep
through the region at some point in the Monday-Tuesday window.
The GFS/GEFS continue to be much faster pushing the front and
colder air into the region. Even with several rounds of showers,
rainfall does not look excessive at this time.
Lingered clouds on Tuesday a bit longer than model guidance based on
the typical NW flow pattern. A few lake effect snow showers are
possible as well with temperatures struggling to get out of the
30`s Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday look to start another
warming trend with the next chance for rain showers to move in
Thursday. GFS is a cold outlier solution at this time 3/27 12Z.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak front moving through tonight will generate only SCT to
BKN ceilings and very isolated rain showers, mainly between
01-06Z. Still not enough confidence to include precip in the
TAFs. Along and ahead of the front, there will be a period of
weak LLWS between 02-09Z. RME, ITH and SYR have the best chance
to see LLWS at this time. VFR conditions are expected through
approximately 18-20Z before rain and MVFR restrictions arrive
with the next front tomorrow. Winds will remain generally light
and variable, less than 10 kt through the period.
Outlook...
Friday night through Monday...Scattered showers and associated
restrictions possible.
Tuesday...Lingering restrictions possible early, then becoming
mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BJT/DK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
616 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
*Key messages:
-Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to move through Deep
South Texas and the RGV throughout the evening and overnight
hours, bringing strong winds up to 60-70 mph, small hail,
frequent lightning and possible brief tornados.
-Additional flooding is likely throughout tonight.
-SPC indicates a Marginal (Level 1/4) risk of severe
thunderstorms for all of the region tonight and most of the ares
tomorrow morning.
-WPC highlights a Moderate/40% (level 3/4) chance of flooding for
tonight, which drops to a Marginal/at least 5% (level 1/4)
tomorrow morning.
-Rain and storms come to an end later tomorrow morning.
A very active weather situation continues for Deep South Texas as
the region continues to lie just downstream of a mid-to-upper level
shortwave trough axis, centered over central Mexico. As forecasted,
scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms have continued
into today and up to the time of this writing. At present, two lines
of severe thunderstorms are moving through Kenedy, Hidalgo and
Starr County, with radar indicating winds up to 60 mph as well as
brief rotations, which could lead to isolated and brief tornados
and funnel clouds. The HRRR and RAP are in fair agreement that
these storms will continue to progress east and southward through
the rest of the Middle and Lower RGV and beaches throughout the
remainder of this evening, bringing strong and gusty winds of up
to 60-70 mph, very heavy rain, frequent lightning, small hail and
further possible brief storm circulations and/or brief tornadoes.
Additional development of storms and heavy rain is likely
overnight behind this first round of storms.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) carries a Marginal (level 1/5)
risk of severe thunderstorms for all of the County Warning Area
(CWA) overnight and into tomorrow morning, with the threat reducing
to a chance of non-severe thunderstorms for Zapata County by sunrise
tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)
highlights a Moderate/40% (level 3/4) risk of rainfall exceeding
flash flood guidance for all of Deep South Texas with the exception
of Zapata County and far northwestern and far westward portions of
Jim Hogg and Starr counties, respectively. At this time, most of the
RGV only needs 1-2 inches of before reaching 100% ground saturation,
while the Northern Ranchlands varies considerably. Many locations of
the areas mentioned above already are at saturation. So, how much
more rain is expected? WPC indicates an additional 1-5 inches of
rain remains possible across most of the CWA before all is said and
done, with the bulk of the rain for the Northern Ranchlands and
Upper RGV falling through this evening and early night hours while
the Middle and Lower RGV and SPI receives the rain between the
early and late night hours tonight. Already, dual pol radar total
storm estimates indicate that most of the CWA has already received
at least 2-3 inches with swaths of Cameron, Starr and southern
portions of Jim Hogg and Brooks counties ranging between 7-9
inches, or more. The bright light at the end of the tunnel is that
dry conditions return by tomorrow evening.
Overnight temperatures will fall into the 60s tonight and tomorrow
night, with lows nearing 70 across portions of the RGV and the
beaches tomorrow night. Tomorrow, the trough continues to move over
and out of the CWA with breaks in the clouds possible by tomorrow
afternoon with high temperatures reaching into the low 80s across
the Northern Ranchlands and the Upper RGV as well as mid to upper
80s across the Middle and Lower RGV. Highs in the mid to upper 70s
are anticipated at the beaches.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Loaded the NBM without significant adjustment. Drier, warmer weather
will prevail through the long term. The 500mb trough axis will swing
east of the region by Friday evening as a near zonal flow aloft
develops over the region.
There is a low chance (20 percent) of showers and thunderstorms
across the Gulf waters. Otherwise, rain-free conditions are expected
through the period. A weak cold front may approach the region Monday
into Tuesday before stalling. Overnight low temperatures start this
weekend in the 60s warming into the lower 70s by midweek. Very warm
to hot weather is forecast into late next week as strong ridging
builds over Mexico extending into south Texas. High temps will range
from the mid to upper 80s to lower 90s across much of the area on
Saturday, except for the 70s at the beaches. Daytime high temps are
expected to reach the low to mid 90s, except near the coast, across
much of the region Sunday through late week. Wednesday appears to be
the warmest day of the week, with high temps well into the 90s with
a few locations approaching the triple digits across the Rio Grande
Plains. Some heat index values next week may reach 100 degrees,
especially during the afternoon on Tuesday and Wednesday.|
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
MVFR conditions will prevail at BRO and HRL with IFR at MFE.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue into the overnight.
IFR/LIFR conditions will be likely with a heavier passing shower
or thunderstorm. Heavy rain and gusty winds remain the main
threats, with small hail and an isolated tornado possible. As we
head into the overnight the hail and tornado threat will diminish.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Saturday through Tuesday night...We expect generally moderate
southeast winds through the period. Wave heights on the Gulf will
be slightly elevated over the weekend, with possible low end small
craft advisory conditions. Wave heights will decrease to moderate
as the new week begins.
Tonight through tomorrow night...Throughout the day up till now,
most of the stations across the Laguna Madre and buoy 42020 have
been reporting winds between 20 and 30 knots with higher gusts.
Several reliable short term models have suggested, mainly fresh to
strong southeasterly winds are expected to continue overnight and
into tomorrow morning. Due to the strong to severe thunderstorms
expected to arrive to the coastal waters throughout the evening and
overnight hours, in addition to a tightened pressure gradient, we
expect rounds of strong and gusty winds with heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning as well as possible small hail and potential
water spouts. Due to the wind and elevated seas, have issued a Small
Craft Advisory for all coastal waters till 1 PM Friday as
southeasterly winds of 15-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots (or
higher) and seas of 6-9 feet continue. Improvement is expected by
Friday afternoon with south-southeasterly winds becoming gentle to
moderate.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 69 82 70 86 / 80 60 0 0
HARLINGEN 65 84 66 89 / 90 60 0 0
MCALLEN 69 87 70 94 / 90 60 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 66 83 69 92 / 90 60 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 77 69 78 / 80 60 10 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 67 82 68 84 / 80 60 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ248>255-351-353>355-
451-454-455.
High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for GMZ130-132-135-
150-155-170-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....54
AVIATION...68-McGinnis
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1122 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
*Increasing clouds tonight into Friday with rain showers
spreading west to east during the afternoon and evening
*Breezy and significantly warmer for the last weekend of March
with a couple of rain showers
*More rain showers and a thunderstorm on Monday followed by a
brief cool down for April Fool`s Day
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Satellite imagery this evening shows a moisture-starved shortwave
passing well north of PA. Dry air at low levels has so far
resulted in no rainfall this evening, despite virga over the N
Mtns. Latest radar trends indicate little chance of rain going
forward tonight, as the best forcing shifts east of PA.
Large scale subsidence behind the shortwave should result in a
period of decent radiational cooling later tonight, with
decreasing cloud cover and light winds. Have therefore undercut
NBM mintemps slightly, mainly over the southern counties.
Expect daybreak readings to range from the low to mid 30s over
most of the forecast area, to perhaps the upper 20s in the
normally colder rural valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley should spread
increasing clouds across the region Friday, with a good chance
of showers by afternoon. The highest POPs are focused across the
western part of the state, where progged isentropic lift is
greatest in vicinity of a 50kt low level jet lifting into the E
Grt Lks.
Thickening cloud cover and showers north of the advancing warm
front should hold temperatures down across Central PA. Based on
latest hourly NBM temps and GEFS 2m temp anomalies, have
lowered the maxtemp forecast areawide Friday, with expected
highs ranging from around 50F over the N Mtns, to around 60F
across the Lower Susq Valley.
Guidance indicates the warm front and associated showers will
lift north of the PA/NY border Friday night, resulting in dwindling
POPs from south to north during the evening. Deep mixing in the
warm sector should then result in a breezy and very warm
Saturday. Model soundings become mixed to near 800mb, supportive
of high temps in the 70s over most of the forecast area and
perhaps the low 80s over the Lower Susq Valley. For many
locations, it will be the warmest day since last Fall. Bufkit
soundings support wind gusts of 25-40 mph, which is significantly
above NBM guidance.
Although Saturday should feature partly to mostly sunny skies,
expect a cloudier and wetter Sunday, as a shortwave and plume of
deep moisture lifts north from the Gulf Coast. Large scale
forcing ahead of this feature, combined with a plume of +2-3SD
PWATs, supports an increasing chance of showers Sunday,
especially over the western half of the state.
Low temps in the 50s Saturday night will be unseasonably mild
with some record hi minimums definitely in play. Max temps on
Sunday will remain well above climo, as the entire region
should remain south of a stalled warm front over upstate NY.
However, thickening clouds should hold daytime temps down a bit,
especially over the Allegheny Plateau, where maxtemps in the
65-70F range are anticipated. Further east, NBM max temps
remain in the low to mid 70s Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Recent model guidance continues track a surface low north of PA
Sunday night, with the trailing cold front coming through
Monday. Upper level diffluence ahead of the upper trough and a
plume of pre-frontal Gulf moisture supports a high chance for a
round of convection preceding the front on Monday. Strong mid
level wind fields and shear profiles also support the potential
of severe weather Monday. Cloud cover is likely to hold temps
down somewhat Monday, but many EPS members still generate CAPE
values in the 500-1000J/kg range, which would be sufficient for
severe weather given the expected wind fields. Latest ensemble
plumes indicate most likely rainfall Monday of around a half
inch.
High pressure and an associated low-pwat airmass building across
Southern Ontario into New England should result in fair and cool
weather Tuesday into early Wednesday. Medium range guidance all
tracks another surface low north of PA by next Thursday. Rain
along the attendant warm front could spread into Central PA by
Wed PM, with a chance of showers accompanying the trailing cold
front Thursday. A cold air damming scenario ahead of the
approaching warm front with surface high east of New England
supports undercutting NBM maxtemps Wed. However, much milder
conditions are likely Thursday, with the region potentially
breaking into the warm sector south of the surface low.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected (~100% confidence) at all central
PA airfields through 12Z Friday. In the near-term (through 12Z
Friday), main concern will be breezy winds based on a consensus
of GLAMP/HREF model guidance with winds generally gusting 15-25
knots. After 12Z Friday, eastern (UNV/IPT/MDT/LNS) airfields
will retain high (~80-90%) confidence in VFR conditions through
18Z Friday as all model guidance indicated ceilings continuing
to stay well-above 3000ft AGL. Airfield of most concern, based
off of RAP RH cross-sections will remain BFD/JST as low-level
ceilings begin to work into the area with rain showers. MVFR
ceilings seem to be the most plausible solution, with HREF/GLAMP
guidance in fair agreement (slightly different solutions with
respect to cloud bases ~1500 to 2500 ft AGL) in MVFR ceilings
prevailing. AOO remains the airfield of most uncertainty, as
drier air in the lower levels has potential to keep rain and low
ceilings out of the airfield until after 18Z Friday, which
seems like the most plausible (~70% confidence) solution at this
time based on RAP model soundings and HREF guidance.
Outlook...
Fri-Sun...Rain/low cigs possible, mainly N Mtns.
Mon...Potential for more widespread showers with cold front,
chance of thunderstorms area wide, highest across SE PA (PM).
Tue...No significant wx or restrictions expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for 3/29:
Harrisburg 86 in 1945
Williamsport 83 in 1945
Altoona 79 in 1977
Bradford 74 in 1977
State College 79 in 1998
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/NPB
AVIATION...NPB
CLIMATE...Steinbugl
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
530 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm and generally dry weather is expected this
week with record highs and near critical fire weather
conditions possible Thursday.
- Cool and unsettled weather will prevail for the weekend with a
decent chance for rain and snow showers. Colder on Sunday.
- Warmer and windy early next week, with another weather
disturbance bringing a chance for showers on Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Afternoon radar and satellite over southeast Wyoming and western
Nebraska indicates a few very high-based convective cells drifting
generally eastward throughout the high plains. Short-term forecast
soundings from high-res guidance indicates deep inverted-V profiles
indicative of plenty of dry air near the surface and a moderate
increase in mid-level moisture as a wave of energy moves eastward
out of the Rockies. Such a deep inverted V profile as is the case
today generally will not result in much or any QPF at the surface,
however some gusty winds upwards of 40 mph near any convective
shower can not be ruled out, especially from areas including Pine
Bluffs to Sidney as we ll as in the Scottsbluff/Chadron areas where
consecutive runs of the HRRR have consistently supported convection.
Have modified forecast grids through the later afternoon to support
the low-end thunder and PoP threat in these areas. In addition to
the shower threat today, afternoon highs have met or exceeded record
high levels, including at Cheyenne where the old record of 72 was
exceeded by a high temp of 73 so far. Overnight, expect another very
mild period with temperatures running well above average and partly
cloudy skies.
An unsettled period of weather will begin on Friday and last through
the weekend as a broad trough with several embedded waves move
through the Rockies and eject into the high plains.
Ensemble forecast guidance is unusually dispersive with regard to
this system at such a near timeframe, adding uncertainty to the
forecast from Friday evening onward. Most guidance supports dry
weather on Friday morning across the entire CWA as heights fall and
cloud cover increases. Expect a mild morning however afternoon highs
will be slightly lower by about 5 degrees as clouds thicken through
the day and a diffuse cold front approaches from the northwest. As
better dynamics and support for lift arrive over the region later in
the day, showers with possibly some thunder will develop first over
the higher terrain of northern Colorado and southeast Wyoming. This
activity will spread eastward generally after 5pm possibly impacting
the I-25 corridor. Forecast soundings indicate a much more moist
profile after around 3z throughout much of the region and a wide
area of stratiform rain showers is likely through the evening and
overnight. Snow levels will remain quite high with this system on
Friday night into Saturday morning. Therefore, no accumulations are
forecast outside of the Sierra Madre and Snowy ranges, with a cold
rain likely for the remainder of the foothills, Laramie Range, and
high elevation basins of southeast Wyoming. QPF values have come up
with the latest round of guidance in the latest model cycle, with at
least a quarter to a half of an inch of rain likely by daybreak
Saturday. Overall, forecast confidence is only moderate with this
event, owing to a varied placement of the heaviest bands of rain and
the scattered, convective nature of precipitation on Friday
evening. |
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Saturday...The initial shortwave trough aloft moves from southeast
Wyoming in the morning, to eastern Nebraska by evening. With
dynamics and upslope, and plentiful moisture, we will see scattered
to numerous showers at lower elevations, with snow for the
mountains. With all the thick cloud cover and precipitation, maximum
temperatures will only be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Sunday...Even colder with 700 mb temperatures near -6 Celsius
yielding high temperatures from the mid 30s to mid 40s. With nearly
saturated low and mid levels, dynamics from a passing shortwave
trough aloft and upslope, we will still see scattered to numerous
showers, mostly snow, mainly in the morning.
Monday...Turning breezy to windy, and warmer as the flow aloft turns
westerly, inducing downslope winds. High temperatures mainly in the
50s. Enough moisture in the flow for some orographic showers over
the mountains.
Tuesday...A progressive and fast moving shortwave trough aloft moves
from Idaho to western Nebraska during the day, with an associated
cold frontal passage. Most of the lift with this system is progged
to remain to our north, however, we will still see enough lift for
scattered showers.
Wednesday...Low amplitude shortwave ridging aloft builds across
Wyoming. Will continue with a mention of a chance for lower
elevation rain showers and mountain snow showers, though this day
may end up being relatively dry based on the model projections.
Thursday...As southwest flow aloft strengthens considerably, it
looks like a windy day will occur, with some wind prone locations
possibly seeing near high wind criteria. Temperatures will also show
a warming trend with 700 mb temperatures near 5 Celsius yielding
maximum temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Southwest flow aloft will prevail.
Wyoming TAFS...Scattered to broken clouds from 10000 to
15000 feet will occur. Winds will gust to 35 knots until 02Z,
then will gust to 25 knots after 15Z Friday.
Nebraska TAFS...Scattered clouds from 10000 to 15000 feet will
occur. Winds will gust to 24 knots at Alliance, Scottsbluff and
Sidney until 02Z, and to 25 knots at Sidney after 15Z Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
portions of southeast Wyoming, mainly along and east of I-25. Warm
temperatures will produce low RH dropping to 10 to 13% as wind gusts
of around 25 to 30 mph develop during the afternoon. Expect these to
overlap in Wyoming east of the Laramie Range. The NE panhandle will
see low RH, but winds should remain below critical. Briefly to locally
critical fire weather conditions are also possible in the valleys west
of the Laramie Range. In addition, high-based showers with a few rumbles
of thunder will develop mainly over the Wyoming high terrain and adjacent
valleys/plains. This activity could produce isolated dry lightning and
gusty/erratic winds.
Expect another round of elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions on Friday. Cooler temperatures moving in from the northwest
will reduce the risk for most of the area, but far southeast WY and
the southern NE panhandle may be close to critical once again.
Reduced fire weather concerns expected Saturday onward thanks to
cooler temperatures and a better chance for wetting rainfall and/or
accumulating snow.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417-418-
430>433.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1010 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Freezing drizzle or light freezing rain could bring icy travel
to north-central and far northeast Wisconsin late tonight
through late Friday morning.
- There is a 25-35% chance of thunderstorms across the region
from late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Some of the
stronger storms could produce small hail, although a few reports
of large hail one inch or greater can not be ruled out.
- A mix consisting of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow will
impact the region from Friday night through Sunday night. Areas
north and west of the Fox Valley have the highest chance of
impactful snow and ice accumulations. There is a 20-50% chance
that the area between Wausau and Iron Mountain will see 0.25"
ice accumulation Saturday night and Sunday.
- There is a 50-80% chance of precipitation totals over an inch,
and 10-30% chance over two inches across northeast Wisconsin
through Sunday night. The widespread precipitation could lead to
fast flows and minor flooding along the shorelines of area
rivers and streams next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Short Term...Tonight and Friday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show weak
surface high pressure centered over the area early this afternoon.
Warm advection is increasing over the northern Plains where there
is a modestly tight temperature gradient in the mid-levels. Weak
frontogenesis along this thermal gradient contributed to light
showers over the southern Fox Valley, but these showers have
exited leaving behind an elongated area of clouds with bases
5000-8000 ft. As a warm front lifts northeast into the southern
Great Lakes late tonight, potential for freezing drizzle will be
the first area of focus. Then attention turns to thunderstorm
potential on Friday afternoon and evening as a surface wave moves
across the state.
Freezing Drizzle Potential Late Tonight into Friday Morning: As
warm advection increases through tonight, saturation below 7000 ft
will gradually deepen primarily after 1-2 am across the region.
In generally, saturation depth appears to have lessened over
northern WI, where the greatest concern is for freezing drizzle
due to surface temperatures forecast to be in the upper 20s to
lower 30s. Think saturation could be sufficient for light freezing
drizzle to develop after 08-09z, which is slightly earlier than
forecast yesterday. However, not confident about coverage and
intensity (due to saturation concerns) prior to when surface road
temps warm into the 40s after 14-15z. Given the low confidence
forecast, prefer to handle potential freezing drizzle with SPS`s
rather than issuing a Winter Weather Advisory.
Otherwise, CAMS show an arcing band of light rain lifting
northeast across the area after about 09-10z Friday.
Thunderstorm Potential Friday Afternoon/Evening: A wave of surface
low pressure will track across west central to northeast Wisconsin
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Increasing moisture
transport via a 50-55 kt low level jet will shift into northern
Wisconsin ahead of the surface low. Modest to strong mid-level
fgen north of the warm front will have potential to interact with
elevated instability in excess of 1000 j/kg to produce
thunderstorm activity. Given effective shear in excess of 40 kts
and mid-level lapse rates from 7.5-8.5 C/km, concern remains for
large hail over far northern WI. The strong inversion north of the
warm front will severely limit and damaging wind potential.
Icing Potential Late Friday Night: Once the low passes, low level
cold advection will resume in the low levels thereby creating
potential for freezing rain/drizzle. However, the deformation zone
behind the surface wave is projected to remain north of the Upper
Peninsula border and models have backed off QPF in the 06z-12z Sat
time frame. As a result, it appears the potential for significant
icing has diminished in this forecast cycle.
Long Term...Friday Night Through Thursday
The complicated, potentially high impact weather will continue
from Saturday through Sunday night. As the cold front stalls over
southern Wisconsin or northern Illinois, as secondary surface low
will travel along the stalled boundary and across the southern
Great Lakes late on Saturday night and for much of Sunday. Track
of this surface low (and thermal profile) varies with each ensemble
group. Therefore, confidence remains low where the greatest
impacts from winter weather will occur.
As low pressure draws closer to the region on Saturday and
Saturday night, mid-level fgen will increase again north of the
stalled front. Within this fgen zone, the ensemble means indicate
qpf amounts from 0.70" to 1.10" from Saturday night through
Sunday.
Given the 1030mb high over northern Ontario and a continues feed
of colder via northeast winds, the synoptic setup (which ensembles
and deterministic models also show) will be favorable for a
corridor of freezing rain. Significant freezing rain is possible
in this corridor given the 90th percentile of freezing rain is in
excess of 0.50". Also think heavy snow will be possible north of
the mixed precip band with amounts over 6 inches possible. This
period has potential to be a high impact winter event, but
confidence is too low in the details for any sort of headlines.
After a cool down on Monday and Tuesday, yet another significant
system could bring impactful weather on Wednesday. Yet it is too
early to determine whether the impacts will come from winter
weather or thunderstorms, or both.
&&
.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
As a warm front lifts north into the southern Great Lakes late
tonight and Friday morning, expect ceilings to deteriorate from
south to north into IFR/LIFR range. As saturation deepens below
7000 ft, the chance of drizzle and light showers will increase
generally toward 12z. With drizzle chances increasing, the
probability of visibilities lowering to MVFR will increase toward
12z.
As drizzle becomes more widespread, temperatures will be near or
below freezing over north-central and far northeast Wisconsin.
Light icing will be possible prior to 14-15z as pavement
temperatures warm above 40 degrees and air temperatures approach
the freezing mark. Thereafter, temperatures should warm slightly
above freezing limiting potential icing. There seems to be
increasing chance (20-30 percent) that thunder could impact the
area from southwest to northeast on Friday morning, mainly 12-15z.
Greatest risk for this is across the Fox Valley to east-central
WI (ATW, GRB and MTW). Have included a PROB30 group at these sites
to cover the potential.
Little to no improvements in ceilings are likely through Friday
morning, but slight improvements should occur by late afternoon
into early evening over central and east-central WI as the warm
front lifts north. Light rain over the north will transition to
showers closer to the warm front by Friday evening. Greatest risk
of additional thunderstorms Friday evening will be across the far
north.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....MPC/MPC
AVIATION.......JLA
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
811 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for a few strong to
severe thunderstorms late this evening into the overnight
hours.
- Warm and breezy conditions will develop on Friday with highs
warming to almost 80 degrees and southerly winds gusting over
40 mph.
- Another chance for severe weather is expected this weekend as a
cold front sweeps through the Midwest. The highest probabilities
for severe weather still appear to be in southeast Illinois on
Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 808 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
As of 800 PM this evening, a warm front is draped from near
Quincy east-southeast through near Litchfield to Flora. This has
been the focus for showers and a few non-severe storms so far this
evening and is expected to slowly lift north overnight. A
strengthening low level jet focused over northern KS will drive
additional storms well to our west late this evening and
overnight, but isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are
still expected further east along the warm front as a broad
corridor of warm air advection remains in place. Latest RAP
suggests weak, elevated instability (less than 500 J/kg and
rooted around 800mb) is currently in place across portions of
central Illinois mainly west of I-57, but should gradually build
overnight with MUCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg across the
Illinois River valley late tonight into the predawn hours Friday.
There remains a low but non-zero threat for elevated severe storms
overnight capable of producing hail to around an inch in
diameter.
Deubelbeiss
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
A warm front along a line from NW into SE Missouri this afternoon
will continue to lift northeastward through tonight, and appears
timed to reach northeast IL by sunrise Friday. Showers and
thunderstorms just north of the front should accompany the frontal
passage, with elevated instability up to several hundred J/kg
potentially bringing a few strong to severe storms containing hail
up to one inch diameter. Timing for this looks to focus on late
evening to a few hours after midnight. Once the front lifts
through, precipitation should exit to the northeast by morning,
perhaps lingering into mid morning north of I-74.
Deep mixing in the warm sector looks to reach as high as 4000-5000
feet by mid afternoon, where momentum around 40 kts should be
present. Therefore, high-end gust potential could exceed 45 mph,
but mean looks to be closer to 40 mph, close but just below wind
advisory thresholds.
The next significant storm system will track across the Plains
Saturday, with the low center reaching Illinois, or perhaps
southern Wisconsin Sunday. Mixed layer CAPE appears headed toward
1000-2000 J/kg, along with 40-50 kts or locally stronger deep
layer shear, with the higher values targeting more the southern
half of Illinois. This should be sufficient for severe
thunderstorms containing hail, locally damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes. SPC highlights a 15 percent risk area near and south of
I-72 Sunday. Timing looks headed for Sunday afternoon as a cold
front sweeps across the area.
Another strong low looks headed toward Illinois the middle of next
week.
Temperatures will surge upward to upper 70s Friday following the
warm frontal passage, with highs remaining in the 70s over the
weekend, then 50s and some upper 40s can be expected Monday and
Tuesday. Lows will be quite mild for the next few days, then we
could see lows dipping to around the freezing mark, or perhaps
some upper 20s for Monday night. As the growing season is starting
to develop for parts of central and especially southeast IL, this
will be closely watched as we head into next week as any hard
freezes could need a freeze warning for southeast IL.
37
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
A warm front is draped from near UIN southeast to MVN early this
evening and will slowly lift north overnight serving as the focus
for scattered showers and storms. SE winds ahead of the front will
veer to southerly with passage of the front and precip chances
will begin to diminish. Winds will set up out of the SW Friday
morning and become increasingly gusty through the day, topping out
in the 30-35 kt range Friday afternoon.
Deubelbeiss
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
907 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and isolated Thunderstorms likely, late tonight.
- Frequent wind gusts Friday of 35-45 MPH with locally higher gusts
possible
- Highs a few degrees shy of records Friday, with continued warmth
through the weekend
- Wet and unsettled pattern developing with periodic rain and storm
chances through Monday
- Strong to severe storms expected Sunday afternoon and evening
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Surface analysis late this evening shows a warm front stretching
from NW MO southeast to western KY. Radar shows scattered light rain
showers ahead of this boundary, over southern IL and KY. The showers
were flowing to the southeast due to the northwest flow aloft. The
showers have been decreasing minimally in coverage over the past few
hours. Winds across central Indiana were from the southeast, and dry
air remained in the lower levels, with dew points holding mainly in
the 30s.
Several more hours of dry weather will be expected this evening and
into the early overnight hours. HRRR continues to trend slower with
the development of overnight showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Models still suggest the warm front will lift northward, triggering
isentropic lift and shower and isolated storm development, but we
have yet to see this occur as echos remain streaming to the
southeast amid no new devlopment. Thus will keep the forecast dry
through at least 05-06Z. Precipitation looks spotty overnight and
not a full, solid shield. Thus will only include likely pops for the
moment through 12Z.
Given our clouds, precipitation, warm air advection and southerly
winds arriving, temperatures should not fall too much. Lows in the
lower 50s should work well.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025
A warm front will push northward through the area tonight, bringing
showers and a few thunderstorms to central Indiana, along with much
warmer conditions for Friday, along with strong winds.
Scattered showers are ongoing, in the area and points west,
primarily associated with isentropic lift along the intensifying
warm frontal zone to our southwest. Significant dry air in the low
levels has limited the ability of these showers to reach the ground,
especially the further removed from the front they are.
This will change overnight as the front lifts through the region,
along with a reintensifying west/southwesterly 35-45KT low level
jet. Some modest instability should be available, though convection
is highly likely to be elevated. This will limit threats from
scattered storms later tonight to briefly heavy downpours and
perhaps small hail with the strongest cores, along with lightning of
course. This activity will gradually exit the area Friday morning as
the warm front continues to lift northward.
Focus will then shift to winds for Friday, in what should be a very
warm, if not near record, day for central Indiana.
Flow in the lowest 3-5KFT will be quite strong, as the low level jet
remains 50+KT through much of the day. Depending on degree of
clearing and depth of mixing, a significant proportion of this
momentum may be able to mix to the surface, and frequent gusts of 35-
45 MPH appear likely from midday through the afternoon hours.
Localized gusts to 50 MPH cannot be ruled out, and depending upon
guidance trends, a wind headline may be needed, but will hold off
for now in collaboration with neighboring offices.
Will message with an SPS and other venues as appropriate.
High temperatures tomorrow with good insolation, strong warm
advection, and what should be good mixing in broad southwesterly
flow will be well into the 70s, and perhaps push 80 in spots. Record
highs for the day range from the mid 70s to mid 80s across the area.
Current forecast highs will fall a couple/few degrees shy of those
numbers, but could easily reach them in spots if highs
overperforming.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025
A low-amplitude trough is expected to emerge into the Great Plains
at the beginning of the long range. This feature will then induce
cyclogenesis across the Midwest which may lead to increased severe
weather potential as Indiana will firmly be in the system`s warm
sector.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND DETAILS
By Sunday afternoon, guidance generally has surface low pressure
located somewhere near the Illinois and Wisconsin border. There
remains considerable model differences regarding the evolution and
timing of this feature. These differences have a greater impact on
the mesoscale environment and so confidence is HIGHER for the
overall pattern rather than the small details that could have a big
impact on severe weather potential.
With that being said, in all model scenarios Indiana is within the
system`s warm sector with a potent south-southwest jet streak
overhead or nearby. Thermal profiles show steep lapse rates and
sufficient instability for thunderstorms. Models show sufficient
shear (over 50kt) for organized convection and potentially strong
thunderstorms. Hodographs are generally long and straight as surface
winds are mainly depicted to be out of the southwest. Based on
current information, wind and hail would be the primary hazards on
Sunday, with a lower threat for tornadoes. Tornadoes are still
possible, as near-surface buoyancy looks to be in place as well as
shear in the 0-1km layer. The tornado threat could increase should
the system evolve in such a way that leads to increased curvature in
the low-level hodographs. Stay tuned for updates as model consensus
increases and these finer-scale details become visible.
Temperatures are likely to be well-above average as long as we`re in
the system`s warm sector, before trending downward after its
attendant cold front passes through on Monday.
MONDAY ONWARD
A progressive synoptic-scale pattern looks to continue with another
trough modeled to arrive midweek. Even greater model uncertainty
exists regarding this system, but most guidance shows it to some
extent. Confidence is therefore higher for broad PoPs but that`s
about it. Yet another trough is depicted by ensemble guidance
arriving next weekend, but with still lower model agreement we`ll
just leave it at that. Overall, an active pattern looks to be upon
us with repeated weather systems passing through.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 713 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Impacts:
- Mainly VFR this TAF period.
- Showers with an isolated thunderstorm possible late tonight.
- Non-convective low level wind shear possible late tonight.
- Strong gusty winds late in the period into Friday afternoon.
Discussion:
Radar shows scattered light rain showers north and south of the TAF
sites, failing to impact any of them. VFR cigs remained across the
area, as a warm front was approaching from the southwest.
Overnight, a warm front along with strong isentropic lift is
expected to push north across the TAF sites. HRRR suggests a window
of mainly 04Z-11Z pushing showers and isolated storms across the TAF
sites. Thus have focused a VCSH period at that time. Forecast
soundings shows dry lower levels, thus mainly VFR cigs will be
expected with the precipitation.
As the front moves through the area late tonight, flow aloft will
strengthen and turn southwesterly before surface flow does so, and
this will lead to a period w/ fairly significant speed and
directional shear.
A strong pressure gradient amid southwest flow is expected on
Friday. This will lead to gusty winds, possibly reaching to around
35 knts on Friday afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1030 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop across
the region overnight. A few storms will produce pea to nickel
size hail.
- Friday will be warm and breezy with highs in the 70s and
southwesterly winds gusting 30 to 40 mph.
- Rain and/or thunderstorms possible at times over the weekend
with a substantial temperature gradient stalled across
northern Illinois. Some thunderstorms Sunday afternoon could
be severe and produce damaging winds, especially toward
central Illinois and Indiana.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Overall, the forecast appears to be in good shape. Warm
advection is intensifying this evening as strengthening
southwesterly winds in the 925-700 mb layer are beginning to cut
across tightly packed isentropes per recent model analyses.
Recent nighttime microphysics RGB imagery reveals that stratus
is expanding south and westward into southeast Iowa and central
Illinois. A few precipitation cores have also recently started
sprouting from deeper cloud cover off to our south and west.
Model guidance is only varying-degrees of marginally helpful
this evening. These types of regimes are usually exceedingly
difficult for guidance to handle, as intense isentropic upglide
interacts with relatively thin pockets of moisture with
building conditional instability. A small misdiagnosis here and
there of the RH fields is all that separates a model from
successfully producing (elevated) convection or nothing. In
this case, a quick glance at near-term RAP profiles (for
example) reveal it`s already doing a poor job handling the
expansive saturated layer around 4-6 kft per surface
observations from east central Iowa into west central Illinois.
Based on the sprouting isolated convection from near Cedar
Rapids to Lincoln, IL, general expectation is for scattered
showers and storms to develop to our southwest, and gradually
expand north and east overnight. With the bulk of the
WAA/upglide not slated to arrive until after 2 AM, it looks like
the highest precipitation coverage may hold off until the late
overnight and into the very early morning hours tomorrow.
Have gently boosted PoPs towards 70%, favoring the northern
terminus of the incoming elevated instability reservoir where
the best overlap of moisture, instability, and ascent from a
subtle perturbation drifting out of South Dakota look to
overlap (i.e. across roughly the northeast 2/3rds of our
forecast area)
Given the elevated nature of convection tonight, effective deep
layer shear values aren`t expected to be exceptionally large
given effective inflow bases near 1 km. Additionally, deep layer
shear is forecast to weaken a bit as instability builds. Still,
the shear/instability space looks sufficient to support a few
stronger cores with a threat for a few dime to perhaps a quarter-
sized hailstone late tonight/early Friday morning.
Finally, while this setup conceptually matches a few things we
look for ahead of heavy rain events, the lack of deeper
tropospheric moisture (PWATs peaking near an inch) and,
importantly, backed/westerly winds above 500 mb, it seems like
deeper cores should have a propensity to propagate eastward
enough to limit residence time of heavier rainfall over any one
location. So, while locally heavy rainfall is certainly
possible, not currently too concerned with the flash flood
threat.
Carlaw
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Through Friday night:
RAP-mesoanalysis data augmented by observations depict a broad
region of low surface pressure along the lee side of the Rocky
Mountains well to the west of a surface high pressure system
centered over the Carolinas. A broad warm frontal zone extends
eastward from the region of low pressure from the Dakotas
through the middle Mississippi River Valley. Showers and a few
thunderstorms continue to fester along the terminus of a remnant
low-level jet and within a region of persistent mid-level
frontogenesis acting upon the broad warm frontal zone, mainly
from northwestern MO into central IL. Our area hence remains
clouded over, leading to muted temperatures and light winds.
Tonight, the broad region of low pressure well to our west will
consolidate and shift eastward into the northern Plains. As this
occurs, low- to mid-level southwesterly flow will increase across
the mid-Mississippi River Valley, facilitating the northeastward
advection of a reservoir of steep mid-level lapse rates (an
elevated mixed layer, or EML) northeastward into the Great
Lakes. As the warm frontal zone sharpens and low-level jet
reintensifies overnight in our general region, isentropic
surfaces will become increasingly sloped allowing for efficient
upglide. While confidence in showers and storms developing is
hence high (>90% chance in our general region), exactly where
carries lower confidence (40-60% at any given point) owing to
differences amongst model suites and the rate at which the base
of the EML moistens. Global guidance such as the EPS/GEFS favors
the axis of showers and storms extending from southeastern Iowa
to central Indiana, while high-res guidance summarized by the
HREF favors the axis further to the north from eastern Iowa to
Lake Michigan. This is a fairly typical source of forecast
uncertainty with convection along a northeastward-advancing EML
plume and intensifying low-level jet, and can be prone to
sizable forecast errors in observed locations of storms.
Regardless of where storms do develop, modest convective-layer
shear of 20-25kt and relatively low freezing levels near 10kft
will support periodic instances of pea to nickel size hail, in
addition to healthy downpours and frequent lightning strikes.
(Note that HREF 48-hour PMM QPF supports a few swaths of >1"
rain somewhere in our general region overnight).
Showers and storms may linger beyond daybreak across
northeastern or eastern Illinois tomorrow morning until the
continued eastward- advancement of the surface low to our
northwest pulls the warm front into Wisconsin. Decreasing
cloudiness will allow for mixing heights to quickly build upward
into the remnant low-level jet, though a strengthening low-
level inversion may tend to limit the efficiency with which
winds can mix to the ground (e.g. WAA-driven winds). With that
said, forecast mixing profiles among HRRR/RAP/NAM3 data support
frequent gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Temperatures will also rocket
upward tomorrow, with 850mb temperatures north of +10C and at
least partial sunshine supporting highs well into the 70s. In
all, tomorrow will look and feel quite a bit different compared
to today.
Winds will remain breezy after sunset tomorrow night as
temperatures only gradually fall (offsetting immediate
decoupling). Overnight lows will fall toward the upper 50s.
Borchardt
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Saturday through Thursday:
A surface low will quickly track eastward across central
Wisconsin Friday night. An associated cold front is expected to
shift southward toward northern Illinois late Friday night and
Saturday, with continued notable model spread in the southward
extent of the front. The GEFS and related deterministic GFS have
trended much farther north and more inline with the EPS/CMCE,
which does increase confidence that the front will not surge
through the entire area during the day Saturday. But both
climatology and pattern recognition would suggest guidance may
be a bit farther north than what ultimately conspires. The
latest official forecast shows the front pushing over far
northeast Illinois during the morning, shifting southward to
near the I-80 corridor in the afternoon, then stalling during
the night. Max temps in the mid 70s are likely south of I-80 on
Saturday while temps in the 50s and 60s fall through the
afternoon. Behind the front, drizzle or fog is possible.
Meanwhile, a convectively-enhanced wave over eastern Texas will
shift across Indiana and result in a pocket of showers and
perhaps a few storms east of I-57 Saturday afternoon into the
evening.
Focus then turns to the potential for severe weather over at
least part of the forecast area on Sunday. Veering low-level
flow with only spotty upstream precip Saturday night should
allow the front to retreat northward as a warm front. A larger
surface low will then traverse along or near the warm front
somewhere across northern Illinois on Sunday. Like on Saturday,
the GEFS has trended much farther north with the warm front,
with much of the guidance now putting at least the southern half
of the CWA in the warm sector. Impressive mid to upper-level
dynamics, specifically with an incoming 70 knot mid-level jet
streak, over modest low-level moisture advection will support a
severe storm risk south of I-80, and potentially farther north
and west depending on if/where the warm front stalls due to the
influence of Lake Michigan. Shear vectors and somewhat
unidirectional low-level flow favor linear/bowing convective
segments with wind damage as the primary threat (large hail with
any more discrete cells). But again climatologically speaking,
both the storm mode (broken/bowing segments) in this area and
the potential for a stalled warm front does support a low end
tornado risk (particularly QLCS). Still a few days out to refine
these details, with frontal location being a significant factor
with how the forecast evolves this weekend.
As the main trough axis crosses the forecast area Sunday night,
a residual band of rain should mix with or even transition to
snow. There is a low (10%) chance of some minor slushy
accumulations late Sunday night into Monday morning, but overall
expectations are for little impact at this time. Drier and
colder conditions will follow through Tuesday with highs
generally in the 40s. Long-term ensemble guidance continues to
highlight another strong mid-latitude cyclone across the central
CONUS Wednesday into Thursday morning. Forecast uncertainty is
quite high locally as the associated warm front is favored to
settle across the western Great Lakes region. Any push into the
warm sector of this system will bring an increase in severe
storm potential.
Kluber
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Forecast concerns for the terminals...
- Rain showers with embedded thunderstorms expected late tonight
into Friday morning. A few storms could be strong with
instances of hail.
- MVFR ceilings to develop with the rain and persist through
Friday morning with IFR conditions possible with
thunderstorms.
- Gusty southwest winds Friday afternoon with gusts in excess
of 35 kts possible.
The earlier sprinkles have largely come to an end across the
area this evening, but an additional period of showers and
thunderstorms is expected late tonight into Friday morning. In
the meantime expect overcast VFR skies and light southeast winds
around 5-10 kts.
The next round of showers will begin to move into northern IL
and northwest IN around 05-06z ahead of a warm front with a more
robust line of showers and embedded thunderstorms arriving
around 08-09z. While the thunderstorms should only last a few
hours at any one location, the showers are expected to persist
through Friday morning before conditions improve for the
afternoon. Additionally, there is the potential for a few storms
to become strong to possibly severe with a threat for hail up
to an inch in diameter especially for areas south of VYS to RZL
line.
Ceilings will also be lowering to MVFR with the showers tonight
and persisting through early afternoon before skies scatter back
to VFR for the remainder of the period. Pockets of IFR ceilings,
and visibilities, are likely with any embedded thunderstorms but
should improve back to MVFR by daybreak Friday morning. Finally,
winds will increase Friday morning as directions shift from
southeasterly to southwesterly by mid-morning. Gusts during the
afternoon are expected to peak around 35 kts, but higher gusts
near 40 kts are possible. While the gusts are forecast to
subside Friday evening, localized 20-30 kt gusts may linger
through Friday night. Furthermore, there is also the potential
for some low-level wind shear to materialize Friday night if
gusts subside. Since the LLWS threat is lower confidence have
decided to forego a formal mention at this time.
Yack
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
A seasonably strong low pressure system will move from the
northern Plains toward the Great Lakes causing a surface warm
front to lift northward through the region on Friday. Behind
the front, southwesterly winds will increase quickly in
magnitude on Friday afternoon. Gale force gusts in excess of 35
kts are expected, and will then last into the evening hours,
although gales may become more intermittent with time,
particularly across the Indiana nearshore zones. A few gales
above 40 kts appear possible during the afternoon, particularly
across the Illinois nearshore. Since water temperatures remain
cold (leading to stability over the lake), the threat for gale
force winds will be within the first few miles of the lakeshore.
The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning for the
nearshore waters.
NWS Chicago
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 3 AM CDT Saturday for the IL
and IN nearshore waters.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1056 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to decrease in coverage through
this evening. There is still some potential for an isolated
severe thunderstorm this evening that could produce up to
quarter sized hail north of I-70.
- There will be several chances for showers and thunderstorms
Friday night into Sunday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible on Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Showers and thunderstorms continued along and north of I-70 in a
band of strong moisture convergence on the nose of a low level jet.
The RAP is showing this convergence gradually decreasing and moving
off to the northeast over the next few hours which should cause the
showers and thunderstorms to become less concentrated. There is a
warm front which has now moved to just south of the area of the
area of convection, roughly over central and southeast Missouri.
There will still be a chance (20-40%) for additional showers and
thunderstorms) outside of this band of showers and thunderstorms
along and north of the warm front. As the warm front lifts
northward this evening, and the LLJ increases in strength once
again, we should see additional thunderstorms develop late this
evening and overnight across northeast Missouri into west central
and south central Illinois. There still remains some potential for
an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with this activity,
with the main threat being large hail up to size of quarters.
There is a currently marked difference in temperatures across the
warm front with upper 40s and lower 50s where it is raining to the
middle 70s just southwest of the CWA. I still believe these warmer
temperatures will make it into central and southeast Missouri this
afternoon. Highs on Friday still look to be around 80 degrees
behind the warm front.
Still expect Friday to be a dry day as shortwave ridging moves
across the area. We will begin to see a chance (20-30%) of showers
move into the southeast half of the CWA by late Friday night ahead
of a southern stream system.
Britt
&&
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
We are still on track to have an active pattern over the weekend
with two systems of note. The first will be the aforementioned
southern wave which will bring likely PoPs (50-70%) over southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois on Saturday. The second will be a
more pronounced trough that will move into from the west. We will
be maintaining high PoPs on Sunday with the passage of this trough
and the attendant cold front (70-90%). It still appears that the
best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms will be on Sunday
when the LREF is showing joint probabilities of MUCAPE>500 and 0-
500mb shear >30 knots reaching 70-90%. It should still be stated
that this system is not expected to be as severe as what we saw
two weeks ago as the operational ECMWF/GFS mass fields are not
nearly as strong.
There will be another trough the middle of next week which will
bring a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area by
the middle of next week. The cluster analysis are all showing this
trough, but there is a spread in how quickly it will move through
the area.
Temperatures will fall behind the front over the weekend with
NBM/LREF both showing highs only in the 50s and 60s but rebounding
into the 70s by the middle of next week. The IQR spread is fairly
small with the cool down, but increases as we go through next week
given uncertainty with how quickly the next trough moves through.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
A band of scattered showers and thunderstorms is oriented roughly
north to south along the Mississippi River slowly moving eastward,
impacting KUIN, KSUS, KSTL, and KCPS currently. However, this
convection is expected to be departing KSUS, KSTL, and KCPS by the
beginning of the period, with impacts only expected at KUIN
through the first few hours of the period. Showers and
thunderstorms will be capable of brief heavy rainfall that will
reduce visibilities. Once convection clears the local terminals,
dry and VFR flight conditions are expected through the remainder
of the period.
Elmore
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
635 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
- Cooler, but still warm today with low chances for showers and a
few storms.
- Elevated-to-critical fire weather conditions are forecast to
develop area-wide Saturday and again by the middle of next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Widespread high cloud cover is currently indicated on satellite
across much of the area which is helping to keep a more stabilized
environment. High-res model SBCAPE is similar to yesterday,
averaging around 1000 J/kg but is mostly confined to the TX/NM
border along the southern South Plains. Moisture parameters remain
favorable overall with dewpoints in the mid 50s and PWATS ranging
from 0.75-1". Forcing is still lacking, with only some weak lift
north of an unorganized looking upper trough. Latest CAMs are also
unimpressive, with many of them showing any storms remaining
outside our area. HRRR is picking up on a line in eastern NM late
this evening likely due in part to the aforementioned instability,
however it falls apart before reaching our CWA. Some mentionable
PoPs have been retained for the southern South/Rolling Plains,
however confidence continues to diminish. If any storms do occur,
severe weather is not expected, however some could produce gusty
winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall. Lingering low-level
moisture may result in low stratus early Friday morning. Otherwise
south-southwesterly flow will return thereafter between a low moving
over the Dakotas and high pressure off the Atlantic coast. As such,
temperatures will again increase with highs reaching the low-to-mid
80s and skies will clear into the afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
With the exception of a few breezy days and a cold front, the
longterm forecast is relatively quiet. A ~995 surface low will
develop over southwestern Kansas Saturday morning ahead of an
approaching upper shortwave trough. While this will allow for breezy
conditions Saturday afternoon, winds should remain below advisory
level. The surface pressure gradient alone will be relatively broad
with MOS guidance showing sustained winds of 20 knots or less.
West to southwest surface winds will create dry conditions,
however, with dewpoints dropping into the low 20s/teens Saturday
and as low as the single digits Sunday. A cold front will begin to
push into the FA Sunday afternoon as the upper trough pushes east
of the region. This will coll temps from the 80s/90s Saturday to
the 70s/80s Sunday. More of a cool down is expected Monday,
60s/70s, as surface winds shift to a more easterly direction. A
quick return to the 80s in expected Tuesday as surface winds
return to the south in the morning then west by the afternoon as a
dryline moves into the region. Models diverge on the upper and
surface pattern late Tuesday and beyond. The GFS keeps mostly
zonal flow under an upper ridge. The ECMWF keeps upper flow mostly
out of the southwest due to upper troughing across across the
Rockies.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Stronger wind speeds will continue to diminish as we near sunset
this evening. Meanwhile, CAMs continue to hint at the likelihood
of MVFR to IFR CIGs impacting all terminals after or right around
midnight tonight. Additionally, KPVW and KLBB could see patchy fog
development mix in with these low-clouds but should quickly exit
around daybreak.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...12
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
600 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 558 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
- Rain chances return this afternoon and continue into tonight. A storm
or two could be strong to severe, producing damaging winds and
hail, mainly south of the I-10 corridor.
- High winds will be possible, mainly in the mountains, Saturday afternoon
through Sunday night, and Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons next
week.
- Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Saturday and
and again next week after Monday, mainly for Southeast New
Mexico and the higher terrain of West Texas into Permian Basin.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper trough moving through
Chihuahua, under a broad ridge covering the CONUS. At the surface,
return flow continues to advect Gulf moisture into the area,
w/dewpoints in the 50s most locations. All of this is setting up
for a potentially busy afternoon across West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico. The 12Z KMAF RAOB came in w/very little shear, and the
track of the trough suggest better deep-layer bulk shear will
stay in Mexico this afternoon/evening. However, mid-level lapse
rates suggest a hail threat will be in place if anything gets
going, especially northwest. The NBM continues to be wildly
aggressive on POPs, but generally in line w/the HRRR and other
CAMs, keeping the best chances along/west of the Pecos. Latest
HRRR puts initiation in the Davis Mtns 18-19Z. The only fly in the
ointment is a batch of high/debris clouds over the region, which
is keeping things capped at the moment. This may ruin rain chances
for most, if not all, of the area.
Models forecast a weak LLJ (~ 25+kt) overnight, so convection
will be diminishing by late evening, and tapering off to the east
as the trough moves through. The LLJ will combine w/mostly cloudy
skies to keep overnight minimums around 10 F above normal. Patchy
fog will be possible, mainly over the Permian Basin/lower Trans
Pecos.
Friday, subsidence on the backside of the trough will result in a
jump in thicknesses, leading highs to recover to the 80s most
locations. Isolated convection will be possible during the
afternoon over the lower Trans Pecos.
Friday night looks uneventful, except for a 40+kt LLJ that is
forecast to develop during the evening, before winds veer to SW-W
with the approach of the next trough. This will keep overnight
lows ~ 10-15 F above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
A much quieter, warmer, and drier period into next week is in
store as deterministic and ensemble models show quasi-zonal
ridging building back over the Central CONUS this weekend into
next week. Models then show 500 mb geopotential heights above 5760
meters and 1000-500 mb above 560 decameters developing over W TX
with moderate 40 to 50 knot southwest winds at 500 mb next week,
lighter winds below 30 knots in the lower troposphere, and
troughing over the Western CONUS remaining north of the Pacific SW
into Desert SW. This mid to upper tropospheric air pattern keeps
storm systems and any associated rainfall away from the area, but
also keeps winds relatively light. With drought conditions still
present, this quickly dries out soils enough for most heating to
go into heating the soil directly rather than evaporating any
existing soil moisture. With ridging in place apart from weak cold
front passages later this weekend and again mid to late week,
highs climb 5 to 10 degrees above average ahead of cold fronts and
fall near to 5 degrees above average behind cold fronts. On days
with warmer temperatures, lows only fall to 10 degrees above
average, while on cooler days, lows fall 5 to 10 degrees above
average as warmer highs prevent highs from decreasing as much
compared to days with cooler highs. Drier air is advected into the
area starting Saturday, as southeasterly humid near surface flow
shifts to southerly and then southwesterly, advecting in dew point
temperatures in the mid to upper 20s into central and eastern
Stockton Plateau through the day. Highs Saturday feature mid to
upper 80s, lower to mid 90s portions of Stockton Plateau into
southern Rio Grande basins, and mid to upper 70s for higher
elevations and northern Lea County. Lows Saturday night range from
upper 40s to mid to upper 50s. WPC surface analysis depicts a
series of cold fronts moving into the CWA Sunday as weakness in
ridging allows slightly cooler air to move in from the north.
Highs and lows Sunday have trended lower with a larger extent of
highs below 85 F and lows below 50F than in previous runs over SE
NM plains into northern and central Permian Basin. These trends
suggest models are picking up on an earlier and stronger series of
cold front passages. For Sunday, southwesterly winds shift to
northerly/northeasterly behind the first front, but dew point
temperatures stay below 30F, attesting to the dry air still
present over the TX PH into W OK. Highs Sunday are forecast to be
at least 5 degrees cooler north of I-10, with lows cooling off
into the mid to upper 40s for northern SE NM plains into northern
and central Permian Basin as well as basins of Culberson County
and higher elevations of western Eddy County into Davis Mountain
foothills Sunday night, and lower to mid 50s, lower 60s southern
Rio Grande basins.
Another weak cold front moves down from the Central Great Plains
on Monday, which is still looking like the coolest day of the
forecast, at least for Lea County and Permian Basin, where highs
stay in the mid to upper 70s as well as in higher elevations of W
TX into western Eddy County, with lower to mid 80s and above
elsewhere, lower to mid 90 F readings in Big Bend. As on Sunday,
highs Monday have trended lower than previous runs, suggesting a
stronger cold front than the previous runs. Winds veer to
southerly by late Monday into Tuesday, with WAA allowing lows to
again warm up, and mid to upper 40s hang around in usual cooler
spots while lows mid 50s to lower 60s are indicated elsewhere. The
first day of April begins the start of warm weather for the CWA,
with widespread mid to upper 80s to lower to mid 90s, higher 70s
for highest elevations. Weak cold fronts Wednesday and Thursday
drop highs and lows a few degrees northeast and west of Pecos
River back into the mid 70s to mid 80s range from the mid 80s to
mid 90s range, with lows by Wednesday night again featuring 40s
down into the Permian Basin like on Sunday night. Ensembles depict
a 40% to 50% probability of highs above 90F for most of the
Permian Basin and Rio Grande basins on Tuesday, 30% to 40%
probabilities for highs above 85F Davis Mountain foothills into
Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM plains Monday, Wednesday, and next
Thursday, a 40% to 50% probability of lows above 60F for the
region northeast of Davis Mountains on warmer nights such as
Tuesday and Thursday nights, 10% to 30% probability of lows above
60F for the region northeast of Davis Mountains on cooler nights
such as Sunday night and Wednesday night. Dew point temperatures
remain below 40F areawide in NBM and ensembles, with a low (10% to
30%) probability of dew point temperatures at or above 45F even
for more humid regions such as southeast Permian Basin into
Terrell County except Monday night into Tuesday, which is also
forecast to be the warmest period in the extended. Therefore,
expect conditions to not only feel warm but also dry into next
week, which results in renewed fire weather risk, as described in
more detail in the Fire Weather Discussion.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
VFR continues as TS remain away from terminals this evening. MVFR
cigs and visibilities are expected to develop overnight before
diminishing after sunrise.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Rainfall totals today, especially over SE NM into Permian Basin
and southwest of Lower Trans Pecos into Davis Mountains, will
determine severity of fire weather risk tomorrow into this weekend
and next week. If wetting rains fall in these regions today, only
RFD conditions may be warranted today and this weekend. However,
if wetting rains do not fall over these regions today, Fire
Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings may be needed given ERCs
above the 75th percentile everywhere, apart from the Big Bend
where wetting rains fell recently. Scattered to broken high clouds
are hindering convective initiation so far this afternoon, but
will leave it to next shift to decide on how high fire weather
conditions rise this week, since wetting rains are still possible
over the area today until this evening. Low fire weather
conditions today occur as cooler than average temperatures, clouds
and rain chances, and light southeast winds persist for the area,
keeping min RH above critical. RFTIs increase to 4 to 6 from
Sacramento Foothills into Guadalupes Friday, and then expand
across all of SE NM and northern Permian Basin as well as Davis
Mountains foothills Saturday as min RH below critical 15%, poor
overnight recovery, and above average temperatures make a return
and present at least elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions for most of the area. Sunday into Monday sees a
reduction in fire weather risk as result of cooler temperatures
Monday with a series of weak cold fronts temporarily reducing
RFTIs, despite min RH staying below critical. Due to recent
wetting rains over the Big Bend, RFTIs throughout the period will
be lower in that region, with only elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions and RFD criteria being forecast on higher fire
weather risk days at this time for that region. Despite ongoing
dry conditions and ERCs still at least up to the 75th percentile
for most of the area, light 20-ft winds below 20 mph outside of
higher elevations and surroundings foothills and plains limits
magnitude and extent of higher fire weather conditions to those
regions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 56 84 58 89 / 20 0 0 0
Carlsbad 51 87 56 83 / 30 0 0 0
Dryden 58 85 56 91 / 70 20 0 0
Fort Stockton 54 87 58 90 / 40 10 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 52 78 54 74 / 40 0 0 0
Hobbs 51 84 52 82 / 10 0 0 0
Marfa 48 80 50 80 / 60 10 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 56 84 57 86 / 10 0 0 0
Odessa 56 84 57 86 / 10 0 0 0
Wink 53 88 53 89 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
656 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A series of winter storm systems are slated to bring impactful
winter precipitation in the form of sleet, snow, and freezing
rain Friday through Sunday.
- Freezing rain accumulations of 0.01-0.50" are expected Friday
morning through Saturday morning. Be prepared for potential
travel delays and power outages.
- Northeast gales of 35 to 40 knots are expected over the
western half of Lake Superior Friday afternoon through
Saturday.
- A secondary system could bring heavy, wet snow Saturday night
through Sunday, in addition to sleet, freezing rain, and rain.
However, confidence is low on where the axis of heaviest
precipitation will be.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Afternoon RAP analysis has mid level troughing over NE Ontario and
sfc high pressure building over N Manitoba and Ontario. The
associated low has made it to far E Hudson Bay around 1006mb and the
cold front has made landfall over the N half of Upper MI. Some mid
to low level clouds have developed over the E, particularly near
Lake Superior where the lake breeze has aided in development. This
also meant high temps in those areas were achieved early today and
temps now reside in the 30s. Outside that influence, temps have
warmed into the 40s with some low to mid 50s in the S central. With
lack luster moisture, no precip is anticipated as this cold front
leaves the CWA. That said, NE upslope flow may result in some
nuisance -sn/dz/flurries over Marquette County this afternoon (~15%
chance). That said, no accumulations or impacts are expected.
Dry weather otherwise continues into tonight as the high pressure
ridging moves overhead and shifts to the E. Attention then turns to
an approaching system from the N Rockies bringing a wintry mix that
continues into the weekend. A strong baroclinic zone sets up over
the UP with strengthening WAA aloft out ahead of this deepening low.
With moisture increasing late tonight, f-gen to the N looks to kick
off some -sn over the Keweenaw, N central highlands and E half. As
PoPs begin to expand over the remainder of the UP toward sunrise, a
warm nose aloft begins to introduce -fzra/ra to the mix. This could
create some slick conditions ahead of the Fri morning commute, but
the main impacts are anticipated later in the fcst. Otherwise, lows
are mainly expected in the 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025
The first round of the expected winter weather/ice storm develops
over us Friday as the warm front of a Clipper phases with a weak
shortwave lifting into the Great Lakes region. With antecedent dry
air having to be overcome, expect precipitation rates to be fairly
light during the morning. Yet even still, expect a strong negative
layer below a strong positive layer across most of the area Friday
morning, with profiles saturating up to 5 kft. With forcing being
strong in the low levels, we could see up to a tenth of an inch of
ice accumulate across the area Friday morning as temperatures
progressively warm throughout the day. It does look like that
freezing rain will be limited to the higher elevations of Marquette
& Baraga counties and the Keweenaw by Friday afternoon as
temperatures across most of the area warm to or just above freezing,
allowing the transition to rainfall across most of the U.P..
Speaking of the Keweenaw, with the warm nose not being as strong
further north, snowfall and sleet have a better chance of mixing
into the precipitation throughout the day; currently, the forecast
calls for northern Houghton and Keweenaw counties receiving up to a
quarter inch of ice and up to 4 inches of sleet/snowfall Friday
morning through Friday night. Thus, I`ve put them under a Winter
Storm Warning for the multiple precipitation types and associated
hazards expected. As for the rest of the U.P., colder temperatures
overspread the region Friday night, possibly allowing significant
ice amounts to accrete across most of the rest of Upper Michigan.
Precipitation rates look to be highest during the evening hours,
when we could see convective showers and thunderstorms. Indeed some
marginally severe hail is not out of the question as the mid level
lapse rates get to 7-8C/km, the HRRR has MUCAPEs over 1000J/kg in
spots, and the 0-6 km bulk shear is expected to be around 70 knots
(granted, most of it is between the inversion in the lower levels
and the free atmosphere in the mid to upper levels). Thus, while not
expected, it is technically within the realm of possibility for us
to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for hail with freezing rain
being the main p-type (didn`t have this on my personal list for
things I`d experience in my career!). As the thunderstorm threat
dies down and the band of precipitation heads southeastwards later
Friday night, we could see the transition over to light sleet and
light snow late in the northern U.P. before the system wintry mix
ends Saturday morning. Overall, while we could see up to a tenth of
an inch of ice across most of the area Friday morning (exceptions
are the far west and southern Menominee County near the city), we
could expect to see another tenth to half inch of ice accumulate
Friday night across the area before the the system precipitation
ends Saturday morning. Thus, Baraga and Marquette counties are now
under and Ice Storm Warning, whereas the counties bordering
Wisconsin, Ontonagon, and southern Houghton counties are only under
a Winter Weather Advisory as ice accumulations are projected to
greatest in the north and east. As for the eastern counties, at the
neighboring office`s request, we kept Delta/Alger eastward under a
Winter Storm Watch.
As we experience a general lull in the precipitation Saturday, we
could see some upslope snow/freezing drizzle/sleet showers over the
highlands of Marquette and Baraga counties throughout the day as
northeasterly flow continues across Upper Michigan. As the second
system, a low lifting from Colorado, lifts towards the Upper Great
Lakes late Saturday, expect wintry precipitation to return across
the area.
While confidence remains low on the track of the Colorado low at
this time, with the models trending further northwest with the
track, the axis of heaviest snowfall has shifted from the interior
west and north central to far west and Keweenaw. This would in turn
bring additional sleet, freezing rain, and rain into the central and
eastern U.P. in comparison to the previous forecast. The event looks
to continue until Sunday night/Monday as high pressure builds in
from the north. This second round could bring additional significant
wet snowfall and ice to the area; additional power outages and
disruptions to travel are probable given the lack of a `break` in-
between the winter weather events.
Another system could impact us during the middle of next week. Keep
your eyes on this, as more snow and ice could be seen across the
area with this system.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025
VFR conditions prevail into tonight. The next system approaching
from the west deteriorates conditions at all TAF sites to IFR by
Friday afternoon and introduces a wintry mix of precipitation that
impacts much of the coming weekend. Further deterioration down to
LIFR is possible later on Friday with ice accumulations at all sites.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025
Weak high pressure building in from the west this afternoon will
weaken winds to 20 knots or less this evening ahead a Clipper low
coming in from the Northern Plains tonight through Friday. As this
low approaches, expect east to northeast winds to increase,
eventually becoming northeast gales of 35 to 40 knots over the
western half of the lake Friday afternoon into Saturday. While gales
look to weaken late Friday night into Saturday, northeast gales up
to 35 knots are still possible Saturday into Sunday. Expect the
winds to slowly back to the north and eventually the northwest
throughout the weekend into Monday, with the winds looking to
eventually become 20 knots or less again late Monday night. Keep an
eye out on the wintry mix of precipitation types late tonight
through Sunday night!
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
MIZ001-003.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday to 8
PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for MIZ002-009.
Ice Storm Warning from 8 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
MIZ004-005.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening
for MIZ006-007-013-014-085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday to 8
PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for MIZ010>012-084.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Friday to 2 AM EDT /1 AM
CDT/ Sunday for LSZ162-263-264.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TAP