Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/27/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1044 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain chances for parts of the area tonight. Light
accumulations, if any.
- Warm temperatures for Friday, some locations flirting with
records. Cooler to below normal temperatures for next week.
- Widespread rain chances (70-90%) and possibly a few rumbles of
thunder late this week and this weekend. A transition to
snow/ice/wintry mix is possible Saturday night into Sunday,
especially north of I-94.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Tonights Rain Chances
Forecast looks on track for tonight. Early this afternoon,
regional radars are showing echoes over the Dakotas shifting
rapidly southeast toward the area. Surface observations are
showing sprinkles at best and generally 5-8kft cloud bases. This
is indicative of the fairly dry sub-cloud layer out there and
struggles to get lighter intensity showers to the surface. These
showers are stemming from frontogenetical forcing from
600-800mb in a nicely confluent wind flow at that level per the
latest RAP comparisons to radar. Also in play is a nice 700mb
warm advection signal. This forcing traverses the area in the
late evening and overnight from west to east providing lift for
showers. When this occurs, convective upright instability
[MUCAPE>100 J/Kg] remains over IA southwest of the area per RAP.
The challenge in the absence of better instability is the
degree of saturation and how much if any rain will occur outside
of sprinkles. Have kept most of the forecast as it was with a
60-70% max band of rain chances centered on about the Miss river
decreasing west and east to 40%. Areas north of I-94 should
remain dry. The forcing will shift southeast in the morning with
clearing skies again and highs near 60.
Warm Temperatures Friday, Cooler Next Week
Friday continues to look warm with some areas flirting with
record high temperatures as a warm front moves northward through
the region. Higher confidence in the high temperature forecast
exists south of I-90 while confidence decreases further north
owing to remaining variations in the northward extent of said
warm front. Regardless, above normal temperatures are expected
across much of the area on Friday. Please see the climate
section for more details.
Greater variability in the temperature forecast comes this
weekend as a mid-latitude cyclone moves through the region. The
speed of this system`s propagation will have a great impact on
the high and low temperatures, especially Saturday afternoon
into Sunday as the 24.06z GEFS/EPS indicate a roughly 10 degree
spread in the 25th-75th percentiles for both. This spread
decreases into early next week, but a cooling trend and below
normal temperatures are currently expected.
Widespread Rain And Winter Precipitation Chances This Weekend
As the aforementioned warm front moves northward through the
region Thursday night into Friday, chances for showers and
perhaps some storms increase (30-50%) along an area of 850hPa
warm air advection, 850hPa moisture transport, and 800-700hPa
frontogenesis associated with said front. Anything that develops
is expected to be elevated given low-level stability, but there
is the indication of a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE which
combined with mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km would be
supportive of thunderstorm development. Better storm chances
lie across northern Wisconsin Friday afternoon where greater
instability and stronger effective shear is able to develop.
To revisit this somewhat persistent topic, widespread rain is
expected across the Upper Midwest this weekend (70-90%),
generally from Friday night into Sunday. Some models do suggest
a bit of a lull during the day Saturday, mainly areas along and
south of I-90, before the main 500hPa trough and associated
surface wave propagate through the region.
Thankfully, ensemble guidance continues to show improving,
although still varied, agreement regarding the development of
this system and placement of the highest axis of QPF. The 24.06z
EPS/GEFS suggest 50-70% probabilities of 1/2" or greater QPF
along a line generally from Wausau to Sioux Falls, suggestive
that this may be where the axis of highest QPF ends up. While
amounts do remain uncertain, most ensembles depict means around
1/2"-3/4" with a 25th-75th spread of 1/4"-1 1/4", respectively.
Overall, confident everyone will see rain this weekend, but just
how much and where remains in question.
Concern is increasing regarding a wintry mix and/or icing
potential Saturday night into Sunday for areas in the vicinity
and just north of the warm front, especially for areas north of
Hwy 29. Warm air advection ahead of the surface warm front with
cooler air underneath leads to a good set-up for
freezing/refreezing hydrometeors and thus freezing precipitation
potential. The 26.00z LREF and 26.13z NBM have begun to show
better probabilities regarding ice accumulations, both
suggesting 30-50% for greater than or equal to 0.1" in 24 hours,
primarily across northern Wisconsin. Uncertainty remains
regarding the ultimate placement of the warm front during this
time frame and thus the precipitation type and impacts to our
area, but the increasing signal for this messy scenario has
begun to pique our interest.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
A few spotty showers may occur over the next 6 hours, but
operational visibility and ceiling reductions have yet to occur
with this activity either in our region or upstream so, while
spotty light rain could very well occur, have kept things VFR
and free of any flavor of MVFR mention. Moving ahead to this
afternoon and evening, while statistical guidance suggests MVFR
ceilings will hold off until after 06z, multiple individual
models strongly suggest these will spread north across the area
after 21z. Have therefore introduced new MVFR mentions at both
RST/LSE this afternoon with this continuing through the end of
the period. As for winds, these should generally be out of the
southeast after light and variable conditions occur overnight
tonight.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Unusual warmth will bring the possibility of breaking these records:
Fri March 28 Temperature Records
LSE High 80F/1986
LSE Warm Low 52F/1879
RST High 76F/1946
RST Warm Low 49F/1977
Sat March 29 Temperature Records
RST Warm Low 45F/1976
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Baumgardt/Falkinham
AVIATION...Ferguson
CLIMATE...Baumgardt
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
941 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain will end across central North Dakota early this
evening.
- Well above normal temperatures and windy conditions for most
areas on Thursday, with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s.
- There is a 40 to 60 percent chance for light freezing rain
across northern North Dakota Thursday night through Friday
morning.
- Temperatures will transition to below normal for the weekend,
with highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s.
- There are medium chances for at least 1 inch of snow in
southwest North Dakota this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
For the late evening update we adjusted the area of fog slightly
based on latest guidance. Otherwise no significant changes. RAP
and HRRR guidance continue to show an area of low stratus/fog
later tonight into Thursday morning. Not convinced this will
happen, but with some patchy fog already in the forecast, see no
reason to pull it. We did shift is slightly to the east based on
HRRR/RAP placement. There isn`t a good area of low level
convergence noted in the latest surface analysis, or short term
guidance. Surface gradient also picks up later tonight, which
isn`t a good sign for radiation fog. There is an area of higher
dewpoints and lower T/Td spreads situated from around Minot to
Jamestown, kind of where there was some light stratiform rain
earlier today. This may be a focus area. GFS Lamp guidance
suggests that there could be some low stratus/fog in this area.
Bufkit forecast soundings also support some fog potential. Long
story short. Will stick with some patchy fog possible, shifted
slightly east from the previous forecast. Overall, little
changes were needed.
UPDATE
Issued at 554 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Rain showers continue to track southeast and are expected to
exit the forecast area by early this evening. Otherwise expect
decreasing clouds this evening. Made some minor adjustments to
sky cover and pops through the evening hours. No other changes
at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
An upper level jet axis embedded in northwest flow aloft is analyzed
from southern Saskatchewan to southern Minnesota this afternoon.
Parallel to the southwest of the jet axis lies two areas of light
precipitation: stratiform rain generated by 700 mb frontogenesis
from north central to southeast North Dakota and convective rain
showers associated with 850 mb frontogenesis trailing the stratiform
rain, now exiting south central North Dakota. To the west of the
rain and associated cloud cover, temperatures have risen into the
50s and 60s in southwest North Dakota. But under the rain and
clouds, afternoon temperatures have been mostly held in the 40s.
Chances for rain will quickly diminish from northwest to southeast
this evening. Mostly quiet weather is expected tonight, but models
are suggesting that an easterly surface flow pointing into a
baroclinic zone could generate some fog along the sloping terrain
from northwest to south central North Dakota, although this could
also just manifest as low stratus. Overnight lows are forecast in
the lower 20s to lower 30s.
An upper level ridge axis will shift into the Northern High Plains
on Thursday, inducing surface to low level south-southeast return
flow. The underlying thermal ridge axis is forecast to approach the
ND/MT border near peak diurnal heating, which could allow high
temperatures to approach 70 from around Beach to Bowman. But
widespread 60s are still anticipated along and to the southwest of
the Missouri River Valley, with 50s through the Souris and James
River Basins and 40s near the Turtle Mountains where stronger low
level warm air advection will fail to reach. Windy conditions are
expected Thursday afternoon, with sustained speeds around 20 to 30
mph and gusts near 40 mph. The strongest winds are expected in
northwest parts of the state.
Flow aloft will turn southwesterly Thursday night as the upper ridge
axis continues to shift eastward. In addition, surface cyclogenesis
is forecast over the western Dakotas. This regime of broad synoptic
scale lift could generate some light precipitation at the nose of
the low level jet across northern parts of the state Thursday night
into Friday morning, although a dry low level layer of air could be
a limiting factor. It is also possible that most of this
precipitation could fall north of the Canadian border. There is high
confidence that any precipitation falling on the US side of the
border during this time period will fall as liquid on account of
above freezing temperatures aloft, resulting in a risk of freezing
rain as early morning low temperatures are forecast in the mid 20s
to lower 30s. The probability of 0.01" QPF is low, but increases
greatly just north of the border, and even trace amounts of ice
could cause impacts. We will continue to message a 40 to 60 percent
chance of light freezing rain across the north Thursday night
through Friday morning, with those specific probabilities derived
from the NBM calculated chance of measurable precipitation.
A mid level shortwave paired with a cold front slowly moving down
from Canada gradually shifts precipitation chances farther south
through the day Friday. There is forecast uncertainty on the timing
of colder air both at the surface and aloft. This could maintain
mixed precipitation types through the afternoon, although NBM
probabilities favor more of a traditional rain-to-snow transition.
This is also the cause for a larger spread in the NBM maximum
temperature distribution on Friday, with median values generally in
the 30s north to 50s south.
A series of shortwaves ejecting off the Rockies this weekend are
projected by deterministic models, and this signal is also present
in ensemble mean vorticity fields. This keeps low to medium chances
for mostly snow across southern North Dakota through most of the
weekend. The highest snow probabilities are in southwest North
Dakota where there is a 40 to 60 percent chance of at least 1 inch
of accumulation. The latest NBM run brought a 30 percent chance of
snow as far north as Williston to Bismarck Saturday evening, but the
positioning of surface high pressure over Canada and its inherent
dry-air advection leaves us pessimistic about the prospects of
precipitation this weekend outside of the southwest. There is higher
forecast confidence in below normal temperatures this weekend, with
highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s and lows in the mid teens to
lower 20s.
For the first week of April, ensembles tend to favor a gradual
warming trend and active flow pattern. But there is a large degree
of spread that is evident in NBM temperature distributions, cluster
analyses, and mean height/vorticity fields.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 554 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
VFR conditions to begin the 00Z TAF forecast. A band of low VFR
clouds with isolated to scattered showers extending from near
Minot southeast through Jamestown and into southeast ND,
continues to track southeast. Generally partly cloudy skies this
evening. Later tonight, high pressure strengthens over southern
Manitoba with deepening low pressure over the lee of the
Northern Rockies. This should produce an easterly flow over the
forecast areas, more northeast in central ND and southeast over
western ND. There could be an area of low stratus and/or fog
develop later tonight into early Thursday from portions of
northwest into central ND. Cams have been hinting at this for a
while and was mentioned earlier. Uncertainty is still pretty
high so will keep the mention of a low MVFR ceiling only at
Minot. With pretty steady winds, a stratus layer seems more
reasonable than fog at this time but can`t completely rule out
some patchy fog. Easterly surface winds continue through the
period and increase to around 15-25kts Thursday afternoon.
Except for the possible area of low stratus late tonight into
Thursday morning, VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z
TAF period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...Hollan
AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
651 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Freezing drizzle or light freezing rain could bring icy travel
to north- central and far northeast Wisconsin from late Thursday
night through Friday morning.
- There is a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms across the region
from late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Some of the
stronger storms could produce small hail.
- A wintry mix consisting of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow
will impact the region from Friday night through Sunday night.
Areas north and west of the Fox Valley have the highest chance
of impactful snow and ice accumulations.
- There is a 30-60% chance of precipitation totals over an inch
through Sunday night. The widespread precipitation could lead to
fast flows and minor flooding along the shorelines of area
rivers and streams.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Short Term...Tonight and Thursday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high
pressure stretching across the central Mississippi Valley and into
the Great Lakes. Weak mid-level warm advection is generating areas
of clouds between 6000-9000 ft across Wisconsin, but otherwise,
quiet weather continues. Looking upstream, stronger warm advection
is occurring over the Plains where frontogenesis in the mid-levels
is producing light rain into northwest North Dakota. As this warm
advection moves towards the northern Mississippi Valley late
tonight and into the western Great Lakes on Thursday night, light
precip and potential impacts are the main forecast concerns.
Scattered to broken areas of clouds will continue to move across
the region through this evening but the weather will remain
quiet. By late tonight, clouds become more widespread again as a
moisture-starved cold front moves into far northern WI and warm
advection increases over southern Wisconsin. Models continue to
point towards a band of light rain developing in the warm
advection zone from west-central WI to southeast WI from about 4
am to noon Thursday. The northern edge of this light precip could
graze central and east-central WI. Temperatures look to be in the
middle 30s, but forecast soundings indicate there is a deep enough
above freezing layer for precip to fall as mainly rain. Therefore
no impacts are expected.
Clouds depart for a time on Thursday afternoon and Thursday
evening, before moisture returns northward late on Thursday night.
This moisture then gradually deepens after midnight from south to
north. Saturation depths look to become sufficient for drizzle
from central to east-central Wisconsin after about 3-4 am, and
across northern WI in the 6-8 am timeframe. There appears to be a
small window for minor ice accumulations before road temps warm
into the 40s by 9-10 am across the far north.
Long Term...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
The forecast gets considerably more complicated for the rest of
Friday and through the weekend. As a weak shortwave impulse moves
east across the northern Plains, a warm front will lift north into
central Wisconsin on Friday afternoon and evening before a cold
front surges south across the area in the wake of a surface wave.
Light precip will likely occur for much of Friday north of the
warm front while the heaviest precip will occur in an axis from
the Arrowhead of Minnesota to the north shore of the Upper
Peninsula. Some thunderstorms will be possible at times on Friday
afternoon and evening with the approaching surface wave thanks to
strong fgen along a very impressive baroclinic zone, most unstable
capes up to 1000 j/kg and mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-9.0 C/km.
Potential for hail will be a concern with any storms.
One of the primary uncertainties on Friday revolves around how
quickly surface temperatures warm through the day. While the
deterministic NAM/GFS show temperatures remain below freezing all
day along the Upper Peninsula border, probabilities show a rapid
decrease in chances of freezing rain (changing to rain) in the
10am-1pm Friday timeframe. Easterly flow at the surface (off Lake
Michigan) rather than northeasterly trajectories makes me think
that probabilities are on the right track in terms of precip
types.
Once the low passes to the east, probabilities increase for
freezing rain and snow late on Friday night into Saturday morning.
Probabilities of 6 hourly ice accumulations greater than a 0.10"
inches increase to about 50-60% over far northeast WI by 7 am
Saturday morning.
Another period of concern is Saturday night into Sunday when low
pressure tracks along the tight thermal gradient over the southern
Great Lakes. The ensemble means generate a widespread 0.50" to
0.75" of qpf within strong mid-level frontogenesis and upper level
divergence. With the 850mb freezing line bisecting northern
Wisconsin from southwest to northeast and northeast wind
trajectories north of the low track, uncertainty is very large
regarding potential snow amounts (0-10") and freezing rain amounts
(0.00-0.60") across the forecast area. Therefore, the greatest
impacts are poised to occur during this period but confidence is
too low to mention anything specific.
Below normal temperatures will follow this potent system on Monday
and Tuesday. Then another wintry system could impact the region
around midweek.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
VFR conditions through Thursday evening. No significant impacts
from winds or visibility are expected.
Scattered to broken mid clouds (080-120) tonight into Thursday.
Less clouds north-central later tonight into Thursday with a few
high clouds. A narrow band of light rain will try to clip areas
south of a ISW to OSH line 10z-16z Thursday, but latest indications
point to rain missing our area to the south.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....MPC/MPC
AVIATION.......JLA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
911 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An isolated shower possible, mild with highs in the 50s
- Near normal temperatures through Thursday, unseasonably warm
Friday-Sunday with highs into the 70s then turning cooler early next
week
- Wet and unsettled pattern developing with periodic rain and storm
chances Thursday through Monday
- Strong to severe storms possible Sunday afternoon and evening
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Surface analysis late this evening shows a large area of high
pressure stretching from KY and TN across Indiana to the Great
Lakes. Northwest flow was in place aloft. GOES16 shows a leaf of mid
and high cloud within upper flow over WI and MN, aiming at Indiana.
Lower level winds were from the west as the surface high was
drifting east, but dew points across the area remained very dry, in
the upper 20s and lower 30s. Radar imagery that has shown echos that
were present earlier and only producing some trace amounts of rain
have decreased in coverage and pushed east.
Models suggest the surface high will continue to drift southeast
overnight, while the mid and high clouds upstream invade through the
night. Forecast soundings show the arrival of these clouds via mid
level saturation, but dry air remains within the lower levels. Warm
air advection is in play overnight along with the arrival of the
high clouds. These features will prevent max radiational cooling.
Thus the ongoing low temps in the middle to upper 30s will be on
target along with the skies becoming mostly cloudy overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Northwesterly flow continues aloft with occasional upper-level waves
passing through. These waves, in conjunction with an approaching
warm front from the southwest, will lead to scattered showers and
possibly thunderstorms at times through Thursday night.
Isolated showers this morning have already exited the area, and we
remain between upper waves. Enough shallow instability exists for a
few widely scattered showers this afternoon as the cumulus field
matures. Any activity that develops should diminish around sunset.
Rain chances increase further late tonight as the warm front nears.
Guidance tends to initiate showers and storms upstream during the
overnight hours tonight and also Thursday night. This appears to be
coincident with the development of a nocturnal low-level jet, which
will aid lift and moisture transport. Upstream activity then drifts
south and east with time bringing scattered showers into most of our
area through the remainder of the forecast period.
As for temperatures, we`ll likely be warmer tonight compared to last
night due to the presence of cloud cover. Still, lows should drop
into the 30s at times with possible frost.
Highs on Thursday may be lower than today, however, also due to
cloud cover and scattered rain showers. Most locations should climb
into the low to mid 50s, though some members of guidance hint at a
few spots not even reaching 50.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Thursday Night Through Saturday.
The shift to a more active pattern continues into Thursday night
with the next round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms.
There looks to be a brief break during the early overnight after the
evening round of storms with the next round late Thursday night into
early Friday. The near surface will be nearly isothermal with a
nearly saturated sounding which would limit the instability and
limit the severe wind threat. There may be a narrow swath of
precipitation of an inch or more, but there remains a fair amount of
model spread as to where this swath would occur. The warmest day of
the period is expected for Friday with highs in the mid 70s as
precipitation comes to an end while strong southerly flow advects
much warmer than normal air into the area. Dry conditions should
continue into Friday night with the next round of showers and storms
late Saturday into Saturday night. Another warm day is expected for
Saturday but with increasing clouds, only expect highs to top out
around 70. Total QPF with this low pressure system may be as high as
an inch but exact details are fairly uncertain.
Sunday Through Wednesday.
A much stronger synoptically driven low pressure system is expected
late Sunday into Sunday night with the potential for strong to
severe storms to impact central Indiana with higher confidence in
impacts across the Ohio Valley in general. Global models and their
associated ensembles show decent agreement in the broader trough and
associated cold front with differences on both the strength and
timing of the low pressure system. Thus there is high confidence in
precipitation with lower confidence in timing and intensity of the
associated thunderstorms. Colder air will move in behind the exiting
low Sunday night with sub-freezing temperatures likely for at least
part of the forecast area Monday night. Dry weather with northerly
surface flow will then continue through Tuesday with a shift to
easterly flow towards Wednesday as rain chances begin to increase
although the overall synoptic pattern is highly uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 703 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR is expected this period.
Discussion:
Surface high pressure over Indiana is expected to push east to the
Carolinas tonight and Thursday. The high will allow for light winds
across the TAF sites tonight with southerly flow developing on
Thursday.
GOES16 shows mid level clouds upstream of Indiana. These should
arrive overnight, leading to VFR Cigs. Forecast soundings show this
mid level saturation persisting through much of the overnight hours
and into Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, HRRR suggests scattered
shower development within the NW flow aloft. For now, have included
a VCSH mention for this as lower level organization is weak and
instability appears limited.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
606 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
- Rain chances increase this afternoon and continue through Friday
morning. A few storms could be strong to severe, producing
gusty/damaging winds and hail, mainly in West Texas west of the
Pecos.
- There is medium to high (50-70%) confidence for many locations
receiving at least a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain
during this period. Higher rainfall amounts will be possible
with stronger storms.
- High winds will be possible, mainly in the mountains, Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night, and Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Saturday, but
this is conditional and dependent on rainfall (or lack thereof)
over the next couple of days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Mid to high level clouds streaming west to east earlier this morning
have scattered out into continued broken high cloud cover, with
isolated cumulus and reflectivity over elevated higher terrain
apparent on VIS/Water Vapor RGB Satellite imagery and radar. The sub-
tropical cirrus plume is associated with moisture ahead of an upper
level, positively titled open wave in the mid-troposphere extending
from Desert SW into Baja CA, depicted in both deterministic and
ensemble forecast runs. WPC Surface Analysis depicts a weak quasi-
stationary front farther north and east of the CWA stretching from
the TX PH into Central Oklahoma, with a retrograding dryline over W
TX. This dryline is forecast to retrograde farther today and develop
into a lee troughing feature, as dew point temperatures in the 40s
and 50s F advect westward into Eddy County Plains and west and
southwest of the Davis Mountains under sustained southeasterly near
surface flow east of the feature, and southwesterly near surface
winds west of it. Forcing at the surface will be weak, so the main
forcing will be farther aloft, with convective initiation itself
initiating largely from heating of elevated terrain. Shear in
deterministic models increases throughout today, mainly as a result
of high winds above 50 knots in the upper troposphere with the
approaching aforementioned short wave, as ensembles show 0 to 500 mb
shear below 25 knots, and deterministic forecast soundings show
winds below 30 knots well up to the 500 mb level, while depicting
shear from 200 to 850 mb in the 60 to 80 knot range. Instability in
forecast soundings and ensembles for today is in the 500 J/kg to
1000 J/kg range. All of these factors will be sufficient for a
damaging wind and hail risk in the strongest storms, but the SPC has
outlined most of the area in a general thunderstorm risk, with a
marginal farther south and east of the CWA over S TX closer to the
greatest lift, shear, and moisture associated with a mid to upper
level disturbance that will be traversing that region. CAMs show
showers and storms initiating over Davis Mountains and remaining
mainly southwest of Pecos River and Permian Basin today. Highest
rain chances 40% to 60% this afternoon through evening are from the
Stockton Plateau into Terrell County, with another 40% to 60% chance
of rain indicated over Eddy County Plains into Upper Trans Pecos
late this evening. However, nonzero PoPs are present everywhere
across the forecast area today, with lowest PoPs below 15% to 20%
over Western Low Rolling Plains. PWATs above 90th percentile
climatology in the 0.80 to 1.10 inch range will allow for efficient
precipitation processes and resultant heavy downpours where stronger
showers and storms occur.
With scattered to overcast cloud cover for most of the area today
limiting diurnal heating from direct solar radiation, highs only
come out 5 to 10 degrees above average, mid 70s higher elevations to
lower to mid 80s elsewhere in NBM and coarse-res deterministic and
ensemble models, while high-res deterministic models such as the NAM
and HRRR show highs in the mid to upper 80s across portions of SE NM
plains into western Permian Basin and Big Bend. All ensembles depict
zero probability of highs above 89F today even over the Big Bend.
Tonight, humid southeast near surface winds east of lee troughing
and rain chances persist, with highest chances 40% to 60% from
Presidio Valley into the Davis Mountains as well as Upper Trans
Pecos into SE NM plains, and tapering off below 40% range northeast
of this region. With widespread cloud cover limiting diurnal
heating, lows in NBM only fall into lower 50s to lower 60s range
tonight in NBM, about 15 degrees above average. A 10% to 30% chance
of lows falling into the lower to mid 40s F is present over Davis
Mountains and surrounding foothills.
Tomorrow, showers and storms remain in the forecast. A higher severe
risk is present, with SPC outlining Terrell County into Stockton
Plateau and Upper Trans Pecos into SE NM plains in a marginal risk
and Terrell County in a slight risk. While the risk will remain
primarily damaging wind and hail, a chance of tornadoes is also
indicated over Terrell County. Ensembles show higher CAPE in the 750
J/kg to 1100 J/kg range as well as 0 to 500 mb shear up to 30 knots.
Highest instability and shear is still forecast to remain farther
south and east across S TX where the greater severe risk will be
located. PWAT remaining above climatology will again allow for heavy
downpours. PoPs 40% to 50% are indicated over most of W TX by mid
afternoon through evening, then PoPs begin to trail off into the
evening from northwest to southeast into the 30% to 50% range from
Davis Mountains into Permian Basin and points southeast as upper air
forcing moves away to the east and less humid air moves in. As the
rainfall event winds down, storm total rain everywhere is forecast
be at least a few hundredths of an inch of rain in NBM grids, with
ensembles showing mean accumulation of 0.30 to 0.75 inches, spread
up to 0.50 inches, and both NBM and ensembles showing highest
accumulations over Brewster County into southern Stockton Plateau,
and amounts above 0.25 inches in more humid air southeast of Davis
Mountains into Upper Trans Pecos and Eddy County Plains. This will
not be sufficient to reduce ongoing drought conditions, but will
help to reduce fire risk and presence of drier, looser topsoil in
the short term. Scattered to numerous showers and storms and ensuing
cloud cover will limit diurnal heating even more tomorrow, with
highs only rising into the mid 60s to mid 70s, near to 5 degrees
below average. Tomorrow night, drier air with less cloud cover
allows more radiational cooling, with temperatures falling lower
into the mid 40s to lower to mid 50s F range in NBM, and more
generally in the 50s areawide in higher-res models, still up to 10
degrees above average for this time of year. A 10% to 30% chance of
lows falling into the lower to mid 40s F is present over Davis
Mountains and surrounding foothills. Even with decreasing cloud
cover and rain chances, dew point temperatures stay above 40F as
light southeasterly winds persist for a while longer. However, drier
conditions are on the way. More on that in the long term
discussion.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
Friday, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are forecast to be under
dry, northwest flow aloft on the backside of the exiting trough.
Subsidence and increasing thicknesses will result in a modest
temperature recovery, with highs averaging ~ 10 F above normal.
Meanwhile, the next trough is set to make landfall on the west coast
Friday night. Leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of this
feature will induce increasing westerly flow across the higher
terrain and Southeast New Mexico, with downslope warming adding a
degree or so to Friday`s highs. High winds look to develop in the
mountains, complimented by BLDU. These unseasonably warm
temperatures will leave single-digit relative humidity over most of
the area Saturday afternoon, with CIPS SGPWO guidance suggesting
this could be a critical fire wx day. That said, most all of this
will depend on how much QPF transpires over the next 48 hours. NASA
soil moisture products indicate West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
are the driest parts of the entire country at the moment and, with
QPF decreasing with each forecast, chances are increasing that at
least some part of the area (west of the Pecos?) will be in critical
fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon.
High winds in the mountains may continue into Sunday as a Pac front
pushes through shaving 2-3 F off Saturday`s highs, but keeping
temperatures above normal. Monday, models backdoor a weak front
into the area, but it doesn`t look to make it to the Pecos attm,
w/the net result bringing highs in the Permian Basin/Western Low
Rolling Plains down to around climatology. This cool spell looks to
be brief, as temperatures rebound Tuesday/Wednesday to the 80s/90s
most locations...around 10 F above normal, as another trough approaches.
High winds may redevelop in the mountains Tuesday night and
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025
VFR continues at the terminals. SHRA has developed west of KFST
but is not moving much at this time. Will monitor and amend if
needed. Elsewhere, the chance of a storm is low this evening
(<30%). MVFR cigs will develop across all terminals overnight and
could last much of the day Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 57 70 53 85 / 30 70 50 10
Carlsbad 54 75 49 87 / 70 50 40 0
Dryden 60 73 55 87 / 70 70 60 10
Fort Stockton 58 74 54 89 / 60 70 50 10
Guadalupe Pass 54 70 52 77 / 60 50 30 0
Hobbs 53 72 49 84 / 40 70 40 0
Marfa 52 72 47 82 / 70 60 50 0
Midland Intl Airport 57 69 52 85 / 40 70 50 10
Odessa 57 70 53 84 / 40 70 50 0
Wink 57 73 52 90 / 50 60 40 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...29