Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/26/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1023 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showery weather will continue into Wednesday, and slightly
colder conditions will lead to minor snow accumulations. After a
couple of drier days to end the week, a pattern shift is
expected for the weekend in which more widespread wintry
and wet precipitation is expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1014 PM EDT Tuesday...Forecast is in good shape overall
with just some scattered light showers continuing, mainly tied
to higher terrain at this point. As we continue to lose diurnal
instability, will see coverage of showers further decrease
overnight, except just east of Lake Ontario where some lake
enhanced showers will continue.
Previous discussion...Numerous showers are filling up
radar late this afternoon associated with cyclonic flow on the
east side of a large upper level low. At 500 millibars, the
center of the low is still back over northern Michigan; the
eastward track of this system will control our weather as it
passes overhead during the day tomorrow and then exits into
eastern Maine tomorrow night. Low level dry air is helping to
limit precipitation amounts outside of hit and miss stronger
shower cores in the valleys. With surface temperatures warming
above freezing and the late March sun angle, we have seen little
impact with wet snowfall, with perhaps a few very high
elevation roads above 2000 feet seeing snow accumulations. There
should a lull in showers tonight as heights rise slightly ahead
of the core of the trough and we lose daytime instability.
Cloudy skies and southerly flow ahead of a surface cold front to
our northwest will help moderate temperatures, although cooling
low level profiles should offset this effect somewhat, such
that lows will be mainly in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
For tomorrow, the weak cold front to our west may become
stationary while the upper trough swings through. This setup
should promote ample instability, with HREF data suggesting an
average of 75 to 150 J/kg, to support some heavier snow
showers. Noting that dew points were a bit too low today in many
locations in much of this guidance, think that the HRRR
depiction, with CAPE on the higher end of the range, looks
reasonable. However, because the front does not appear to cross
the region, the precipitation will remain unorganized which will
limit potential for any snow squalls. Thermal profiles will be
a bit colder than today such that potential for accumulating
snow is greater, although still strongly elevationally
dependent, especially during the day with deeply mixed
conditions. A coating to an inch of snow will be common during
the day above 1500 feet elevation.
Tomorrow night as the trough moves to our east winds will turn
westerly, supporting a period of upslope snow, especially
towards midnight when best balance of colder low level air and
deep moisture overlap with blocked flow. Up to a few inches of
snow across the western slopes of the Greens can be expected
through daybreak Thursday as precipitation tapers off.
Seasonably cold conditions with sub-freezing temperatures
areawide will return in the overnight period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 321 PM EDT Tuesday...Brief ridging builds in for Thursday and
should scour out the clouds in most places. Temperatures will be
seasonable, with highs generally in the 40s. A weak shortwave digs
down into the region Thursday night and will bring a few snow
showers to the region. While temperatures will be above freezing in
many places during the event, steep lapse rates and evaporational
cooling mean everywhere should see snow. Temperatures in the higher
elevations will fall below freezing so light accumulations are
possible there, but temperatures in the broad valleys look to remain
above freezing so any accumulations look tough to come by.
Regardless, liquid amounts of the snow will only be a few hundreths
of an inch at most, so it will be very unimpressive. The most
precipitation will be farther north and at higher elevations.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 321 PM EDT Tuesday...A sharp temperature gradient will develop
across the region Friday night into Saturday as a low trying to move
north into the Great Lakes region runs into an arctic high building
south out of Canada. These elements will cause a front to be
stationed somewhere across the region, with model disagreement on
its exact positioning. It likely builds north a little Friday night,
before sinking back south a little on Saturday before rising north
into Quebec on Sunday. On the northern edge of the front, there will
likely be light snow while south of it will likely see freezing rain
and rain. The first round of moisture rides along it Friday night
and could put down a few inches of snow across northern areas, while
areas to the south look to see a change from snow to a wintry mess.
Even as the surface front may push to the south a little on
Saturday, warm air advection looks to continue aloft and keep
temperatures steady or rising. Therefore, even if surface
temperatures are able to stay below or fall below freezing, the
precipitation should transition from snow to freezing rain/rain
everywhere Saturday night into Sunday. During this time, the
precipitation axis looks to be very narrow and most areas should be
able to see a dry slot. As a stronger low builds to the west Sunday
into Sunday night, steadier precipitation will build into the region
and southerly flow should gradually scour out the cold air. However,
a relatively prolonged period of freezing rain is possible,
especially east of the Greens. A cold front comes through Monday and
brings an end to the precipitation. Relatively seasonable weather
looks to stay around early to mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Radar is showing scattered snow showers
with sfc vis dropping btwn 1 and 3 miles in the heavier
activity. This activity will persist for a few more hours,
especially across our mountain taf sites of SLK/EFK and MPV
where brief 10 to 15 minutes of IFR vis is possible from time to
time. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions in our valley taf sites
of PBG/BTV/RUT with MVFR cigs at MSS. Winds will continue from
the south/southwest at 5 to 10 knots. On Weds deeper moisture
and better instability will produce numerous convective snow
showers across our taf sites with sharp and brief reduction in
sfc vis into IFR/LIFR (0.50SM to 2SM) likely along with a quick
coat to an inch possible, especially at EFK/SLK and MPV. A few
snow pellets/graupel are likely within the stronger convective
elements. Activity should decrease in areal coverage toward
sunset with winds shifting to the northwest at 5 to 10 knots,
but localized stronger near precipitation.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible.
Likely SN, Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SN, Likely
RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SN,
Likely RA.
Sunday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA, Likely
SN.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Duell/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Taber
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
644 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Short Term...
Key Messages:
- Unseasonable warmth continues Wednesday
- Showers and storms make their likely return Wednesday afternoon
and continue through the evening.
- Severe weather possible (Marginal risk) across the Rio Grande
Plains and Winter Garden areas.
Looking at current visible satellite imagery we see a cumulus field
is starting to pop over Llano, Burnet and Williamson counties. This
is also the area likely to see storms if they form later this
afternoon from about 4/5pm until sunset around 8pm. This is similar
to what happened last night when a rogue storm popped up over
Kerrville. The recent run of the HRRR model is starting to latch
onto this as well. Decided to add mention of isolated T-storms(10-
20%) over these counties and with the cumulus field starting to
expand signals could be even higher that these counties may
experience isolated T-storms.
Now for Wednesday, once again we are looking at unseasonably warm
temperatures albeit slightly lower then todays (low to mid 90s)
compared to low to mid 80s we expect for tomorrow. Temperatures may
end u warmer or colder depending on where the cloud cover sets up
shop. In addition to the cloud cover, forcing by the approach of the
upper level trough will generate showers and storms over the Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande Plains by late afternoon. The current
thinking is these showers and thunderstorms will eventually continue
to move northeastward and eventually encompass all of the forecast
area.
Regarding precip amounts, models including Hi-res and Global
are absolutely all over the place. What this means is our confidence
for rain is high as the setup is very good with high PWATS,
excellent forcing due to the trough interaction, IVF transport and
abundant moisture. What we are less certain about is the location of
these storms, namely how far north these storms make it into our
area. The WPC has highlighted parts of our area under a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall for tomorrow as well. Basically from a
Del Rio to San Antonio to Cuero line on south. Areas here could
expect at least a couple inches of rain depending on what happens
with this complex. Some hi res models namely the NAM has a complex
moving out of the Rio Grande Plains and up through the I-35
Corridor. Whereas the Fv3 Hi-res model shows the complex moving west
to east and staying south of San antonio, affecting mainly the
Winter Garden and extreme southern Coastal Plains. Yet another third
Hi-res model shows the complex missing our entire area regarding the
heavier rain totals. Usually as we get closer to an event our
forecast confidence increases however models are struggling to latch
onto this system. We want to stress that it is still too soon to
nail down rainfall totals as this is a complicated system and things
likely can and will change as more hi-res model runs come in.
In addition to the heavy rainfall there will also be a possible
severe weather threat with these storms as well. This is highlighted
well as the SPC has the Rio Grande Plains and Winter Garden areas in
a marginal risk(level 1 of 5) for mainly damaging winds and large
hail. Moisture will be abundant across the area along with
vertically veering winds as one increases in height throughout the
atmosphere. this suggests a couple slow moving supercells could be
possible late wed afternoon/evening. However widespread severe
weather is not expected at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Key Messages:
- Heavy rain event on the making Thursday into Friday
Upper level short wave disturbance over northern Mexico to push
eastward on Thursday. The combination of the passage of the upper
level short wave in combination with increased Gulf moisture is
likely to result in heavy rain over a good portion of South Central
Texas. As of this forecast package, most deterministic models and
ensemble guidance are pointing to areas along and east of I-35
Corridor and Coastal Plains. Our confidence is medium to high as far
as a heavy rain event in the making. As far as local impacts, our
confidence is low to medium at this time. More details will come out
within the next day as hires models are integrated into the Thursday
and Friday time frame.
What we know this far for the upcoming rain event is that from
Thursday afternoon into the night period, there are moderate to high
probabilities for scattered to numerous and even widespread showers
and isolated thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain. Also,
stronger thunderstorms are likely capable of producing marginally
severe hail and wind.
The upper level short wave moves to the east on Friday with showers
and storms coming to an end from west to east starting Friday
morning. The dry weather continues on Friday evening into the
upcoming weekend. A warming trend awaits with highs in the mid to
upper 80s to lower 90s along the Rio Grande Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at all airports through this evening.
Southerly to southeasterly winds around 10 kts will bring in low
level moisture. This will eventually lead to low clouds forming
overnight. Initially ceilings will be MVFR and drop to IFR by around
sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will move into the region from
the west. Convection will start mid-afternoon at DRT and late
afternoon/early evening in San Antonio.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 63 86 62 72 / 10 10 30 90
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 61 86 62 71 / 0 10 30 90
New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 87 63 74 / 0 20 50 100
Burnet Muni Airport 61 86 62 70 / 20 10 30 90
Del Rio Intl Airport 67 84 65 79 / 0 50 80 90
Georgetown Muni Airport 62 85 62 71 / 20 0 30 90
Hondo Muni Airport 62 84 62 71 / 0 30 70 100
San Marcos Muni Airport 61 85 62 71 / 0 10 50 90
La Grange - Fayette Regional 62 86 64 73 / 0 0 30 90
San Antonio Intl Airport 64 85 64 71 / 0 20 60 100
Stinson Muni Airport 64 86 64 73 / 0 30 60 100
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...CJM
Long-Term...17
Aviation...05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
607 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
- Rain chances increase Wednesday afternoon and continue through
Thursday night. A few storms could be strong to severe,
producing gusty/damaging winds and hail, mainly south and east
of a Alpine to Garden City line.
- There is medium to high (50-70%) confidence for many locations
receiving at least a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain
during this period. Higher rainfall amounts will be possible
with stronger storms.
- Dry weather and well above normal temperatures return by the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis shows a mid-level
ridge across the region extending into the Great Basin, alongside a
negatively tilted shortwave trough near Baja California. The ridge
shifts eastward tonight with the shortwave gradually moving towards
the region. This will provide lift and moisture creating widespread
broken to overcast conditions beginning tonight lasting through the
rest of the short-term forecast period. Warm low temperatures are
anticipated reaching the lower 50s to mid 60s areawide.
The aforementioned trough also increases rain/storm chances and
instability for areas along and south of the I-10 corridor Wednesday
afternoon. The amount of instability will be dependent on the
positioning and timing of the trough coinciding with afternoon
daytime heating. CAMs and HREF have 800-1300 J/kg ML CAPE with
minimal wind shear across these areas. These values could be
overestimated given the persistent cloud coverage throughout the
afternoon. Areas north of the I-10 corridor will have less
instability. Overall, general thunderstorms are expected, with an
isolated strong thunderstorm being possible for the far southeast
portions of the forecast area. Rainfall amounts tomorrow are
generally expected to be around 0.05-0.1" south of I-10 with
localized amounts over 0.3" due to heavy downpours from the storms.
Heading into Wednesday night and Thursday morning, the mid-level
trough makes its way in northwestern Mexico, providing rain chances
to increase north of the I-10 corridor. A couple of rumbles of
thunder will be possible, though no severe storms are expected
during this timeframe. Similar rainfall amounts (0.02-0.1") are
forecasted for areas across southeastern New Mexico and the Permian
Basin. Low temperatures stay warm in the 50s to lower 60s, thanks to
the cloud coverage overnight. Rain and storm chances stick around
heading into the long-term period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
The first round of showers and thunderstorms will be exiting the
region early Thursday morning as the initial short wave trough moves
northeast. The second round is expected to develop across south and
western areas near the mountains by mid afternoon as the main upper
system begins to move over the region. This activity will persist
through the evening while shifting east through the evening. In the
end, areas across the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos (generally
south of I-20) have the best chances (90%) of getting at least 0.25
inch of rain, with at least a low chance (10%) of getting 1-1.5
inches total rainfall. These higher amounts would likely be
associated with stronger storms, and would result in some areas of
flooding of at least low lying areas. Rain chances are still decent
(60-80%) across southeastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin but
storms look to be more isolated in nature so it`s difficult to
pinpoint exactly what areas will receive rainfall. Otherwise, a
few of the stronger storms could be severe, mainly across southern
areas, potentially producing gusty/damaging wind and hail.
Increased cloud cover and rain activity Thursday will result in
cooler temperatures and highs are expected to be in the 70s most
locations. Showers and thunderstorms chances will come to an end
early Friday morning with dry conditions to follow through the
weekend, and even early into next week. High temperatures in the
80s will be common Friday through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
VFR continues through the period.Gusty south winds will develop
at KFST this evening and last through much of the night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 59 84 57 73 / 0 10 40 80
Carlsbad 51 83 54 76 / 0 20 60 80
Dryden 61 81 60 75 / 0 40 80 90
Fort Stockton 62 84 58 77 / 0 40 60 90
Guadalupe Pass 56 76 53 70 / 0 40 60 70
Hobbs 53 82 52 73 / 0 20 50 80
Marfa 53 78 51 72 / 0 60 80 90
Midland Intl Airport 59 82 57 72 / 0 10 50 80
Odessa 60 82 57 73 / 0 10 50 80
Wink 57 85 57 78 / 0 30 60 80
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...29
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
654 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Potential is increasing for impactful winter weather Friday
through Sunday. The main hazards are freezing rain and
accumulating snow. Details remain uncertain but those with
travel plans should monitor the forecast and make backup plans
just in case.
- With daytime highs warming well above freezing toward the end
of the month, ice conditions on interior lakes and rivers are
becoming increasingly dangerous.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Afternoon WV imagery and RAP analysis show the mid level trough
centered over the Great Lakes with an embedded shortwave positioned
over MI and the Upper Great Lakes. This cyclonic flow alongside
850mb temps around -13C over the E has allowed for iso/sct LES snow
showers. Radar highlights a dominant LES band supported by low level
convergence parked over W Alger County. Given the persistence and
returns up to 30dBZ in this band, the Winter Weather Advisory was
extended to 2 PM EDT for additional accumulating snow and pockets of
low visibility within the strong LES band impacting any travel. RAP
analysis also indicates high pressure ridging W of Upper MI. This is
progged to shift E and expand drier air into the region, diminishing
lingering snow showers and clearing skies into tonight. Additional
accumulations up to 1" are possible through this evening. Otherwise,
decreasing cloud cover and weakening CAA brings highs this afternoon
mainly into the 30s.
Subsidence from high pressure overhead tonight paired with light and
variable winds and a drier airmass will bring temps tonight near to
slightly below normal. Lows are expected near 10F in the interior
with teens to low 20s by the Great Lakes. Areas which are able to
clear out quicker this evening may drop further into the single
digits in the interior W, closer to the MOS guidance.
High pressure ridging moves SE on Wed, but dry weather likely
continues through the day (~90% chance for no precip). Highs
are expected to be above normal in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Partly cloudy skies return as troughing approaches from the NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
A cold front moving down from northern Ontario over us starts the
extended period on Wednesday night. While this front may give us
some gusty winds from the northwest Thursday and some isolated
showers (of mainly snow or rain, but freezing rain cannot be
completely ruled out at this time), with the better forcing further
north and the lowest levels of the atmosphere remaining fairly dry,
expect any precipitation that is able to make it to the surface to
be rather light due to the evaporation in the dry lower levels. In
addition, with the partly cloudy skies overhead, expect the low
temperatures Wednesday night/Thursday morning to drop down into the
mid to possibly even lower 20s across the interior. Behind the cold
front on Thursday, we may see an isolated shower or two behind the
low. However, with high pressure moving in from the west and partly
cloudy skies, expect high temperatures to climb into the mid 30s
over the Keweenaw to around 50F in the south central.
The `main attraction` so to speak for the period is the wintry mix
(more like wintry mess) projected for the end of this week through
this weekend. A warm front developing over our area becomes
stationary as a Clipper digging down through the Northern Plains
weakens as it heads towards the Great Lakes. As it does so, a low
from Colorado begins lifting towards the Great Lakes region and
reinvigorates precipitation over the area through this weekend.
While confidence is somewhat high now for precipitation for Friday
at least, nailing down the precipitation types late this week and
the precipitation chances for this weekend still remain fairly low
as the dying Clipper low phasing with the Colorado low is not
something that model guidance can predict with great accuracy; given
this, and it being so far out in time, we could see significant
shifts in precipitation amounts and types over the next few days.
While I have extremely low confidence (<10%) on `apocalyptic` sleet
and freezing rain amounts with the warm front (1+ inch amounts), the
fact that the deterministic GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all show high
amounts of freezing rain and sleet late this week into this weekend
(0.25 inches up to 0.50 inches) does make me concerned for
significant to outright dangerous winter weather impacts. In
addition, it does seem that the axis of precipitation has trended
ever so slightly further south. What this (hopefully) means is that
we see more snowfall and less freezing rain, sleet, and rain (which
will freeze once surface temperatures drop below freezing). With
temperatures being fairly marginal aloft, this would make the
snowfall, should it occur, quite wet. Also, in the latest 00z
European ensemble run, even though the EFI is less than 0.5, it is
already giving a Shift-to-Tails to 0 to 1; in other words, while not
all of the ensemble members are giving a notable snowfall forecast,
for those that do, they are predicting an anomalous/unseasonable
snowfall event where several inches accumulate in at least 10% of
the ensemble model runs.
Bottom line: Keep your eyes posted on the forecast. If you have
travel plans late this week through this weekend, I`d suggest you
make some backup plans just in case.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 654 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Northwest to north-northwest winds of 20 to 25 knots over the
eastern lake the rest of this afternoon weaken to 20 knots or less
tonight as high pressure ridging moves through the region. The light
winds continue until a cold front passes over the lake Wednesday
night and brings northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots across the lake
into Thursday, with a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots possible
(20% chance according to the HREF). High pressure moving back in
Thursday brings winds back down to 20 knots or less again by
Thursday evening. As a Clipper low digs from the Northern Plains
towards the Great Lakes (and dying as it does so) Thursday into this
weekend, expect easterly winds to pick up to 20 to 25 knots over the
western half of the lake late Thursday night/early Friday morning.
The winds increase to east to northeasterly winds of 25 knots over
the east to gales of 35 knots in the west by late Friday, with
northeast gales up to 40 knots possible over the western half of the
lake Friday night into Saturday (30% chance according to LREF). As a
low lifting from Colorado phases with the dying Clipper and moves
through the Upper Great Lakes Sunday, expect the strong northeast
winds of around 25 to 30 knots (or greater) to continue over Lake
Superior through the day. As the Clipper and Colorado lows move into
the area Friday through Sunday, a wintry mix of precipitation is
possible across the lake.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Jablonski
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TAP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1003 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the northwest tonight through
Thursday before shifting offshore by early Friday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 PM Tuesday...
Local radar imagery and surface observations show an elongated area
of low pressure is extended along a front evident as a radar fine-
line off the KRAX radar. Light rain is mainly confined along the
front with anafrontal rain extending northward into southeast VA,
but is becoming more diffuse as low-level WAA shifts into the
Coastal Plain and becomes further displaced from the front. Several
gusts of 20 to 25 mph have been noted behind the front and point
soundings from the RAP indicate may continue to an hour to two post
fropa.
As this front pushes south of the region late tonight, light and
steady pressure rises may keep open areas lightly stirred with winds
out of the north to northwest with pockets of calm probable mainly
after midnight. Overnight lows will settle in the low/mid 40s with
upper 30s expected in the northern Piedmont and Coastal Plain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 PM Tuesday...
Despite the passage of a weak front/trough this evening, cyclonic
flow will remain in place on Wednesday. Post-frontal northwesterly
winds are expected to pick up from mid morning onward, with
occasional gusts in the 20-30 mph range (strongest gusts across the
western Piedmont, lesser values to the east). Humidities will once
again fall into the 20-30 percent range, and once again fire weather
concerns will be the main story. See Fire Weather section below for
more details.
A trailing shortwave trough embedded within the flow will traverse
the area Wednesday afternoon. NBM, and at least 1 member of the 12Z
HREF, are suggesting some sprinkles/virga coincident with the
arrival of this trough. Given just how dry the BL will be, it`s hard
to buy into the idea of substantially increasing PoPs, but some 5-10
percent values seem warranted for areas mainly south of Raleigh. If
anything, this wave and subsequent attempt at precipitation into an
extremely dry and well mixed BL will likely result in evaporational
cooling and enhanced breeziness across south-central NC tomorrow
afternoon. Any precip/virga and associated breeziness should
diminish quickly after sunset.
As for temperatures, look for highs ranging from near 60 in the
north, to the upper 60s in the south. Once winds calm down, expect
temps to drop considerably after sunset with spots north and west of
I-85 falling into the lower 30s. As the frost/freeze season has been
restarted this spring across central NC, frost headlines may be
needed for early Thursday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...
Thursday through Saturday: Aloft, a longwave trough will gradually
shift ewd out over the Atlantic, with nwly flow over central NC as
the sub-tropical ridge shifts ewd toward the region through Thu
night. As the ridge progresses ewd into the region Fri/Fri night, a
potent s/w will track ewd across the srn Plains/lwr MS Valley. The
s/w will then lift newd across the Deep South/TN Valley through Sat.
At the surface, high pressure over the srn Appalachians will slide
ewd across the Carolinas/VA and off the Carolina coast on Thu. The
high will slowly migrate ewd but remain off the Carolina coast Thu
night-Sat, with increasing sly return flow advecting warm, moist air
into the area. Expect generally dry weather to prevail Thu-Sat, with
moderating temperatures and increasing low-level moisture.
Saturday night through Tuesday: Aloft, the s/w will continue lifting
newd across the region Sat night and Sun. Another potent s/w, which
should move inland over nrn CA Fri night, will move across the
Plains Sun/Sun night, across the MS Valley Sun night/Mon, then lift
quickly newd across the OH Valley and Northeast US Mon/Mon night. At
the surface, a low pressure system will develop over the cntl Plains
Sat night, then progress ewd across the Midwest Sun/Sun night. The
low should continue ewd across the OH Valley and Northeast/mid-
Atlantic Mon/Mon night. The attendant cold front should move ewd
across the TN Valley/Deep South on Mon, then continue ewd across the
Appalachians and mid-Atlantic Mon night. However, there are some
continued differences between the medium-range model guidance on the
track and timing of the low and subsequently the passage of the
attendant cold front and where it will settle to or stall Mon
night/Tue. Chances for showers/storms will increase Sat night and
persist through Sun and possibly into Sun night. A brief lull in
convective activity is expected Sun night, with another round of
showers/storms moving across the area Mon/Mon night. The weather for
Tue will depend on the progression of the cold front through and
south of the area, but some additional rain on Tue cannot be ruled
out at this time. Above to well above normal temperatures are
expected Sat night-Mon night, warmest Sun night (lows mid 50s to low
60s)/Mon (highs upper 70s to low/mid 80s). All of central NC is
currently in a Day 7 15% area from the SPC for Mon/Mon night, so
will be keeping a close eye on how the forecast evolves and the
potential for some strong to severe storms across the area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 810 PM Tuesday...
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours across central
NC. A cold front currently stretches across the northern Piedmont
and northern Coastal Plain, with associated light showers moving
east across these areas. These showers could briefly reduce
visibilities at RDU and RWI but they should stay VFR, as nothing sub-
VFR has been observed up to this point. Similarly, associated
ceilings will stay VFR, in the 8-10 kft range, as low levels are too
dry. Any showers should stay north of FAY, and they have already
moved east of INT/GSO. Winds are beginning to lessen somewhat, but
still can`t rule out a gust in the 20-30 kt range with the showers,
as well as along and immediately behind the frontal passage.
Skies will clear behind the front and winds will shift from S to
N/NW, decreasing through the night to around 7 kts or less. A NW low-
level jet of 30-40 kts may result in marginal low-level wind shear
across central NC late tonight and early Wednesday morning, but
given there should still be some stirring at the surface, confidence
is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Deep mixing
will then result in NW winds gusting in the 15-25 kt range again
from late morning into the afternoon on Wednesday, subsiding by
sunset.
Outlook: Expect dry weather and VFR conditions through much of the
outlook period. After one day of light winds on Thursday, expect
S/SW flow to increase again from Friday into the weekend. The next
chance for showers/storms and sub-VFR conditions appears to be
Sunday into Monday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1000 PM Tuesday...
...INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL BE EFFECT FROM 12 PM UNTIL 9 PM
WEDNESDAY...
Northwest winds will increase through the morning hours and prompt
downslope drying with deep mixing heights and large dew point
depressions. By the afternoon hours, the combination of relative
humidity dropping below 25 percent, winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts
around 25 mph, and dry fuels will likely result in adverse fire
behavior across central NC. The strongest winds and driest
conditions are expected across the western Carolinas into portions
of the Piedmont.
Looking ahead, winds will be noticeably lighter on Thursday, before
picking up again Friday into the weekend. Humidities will still fall
into the 20-30 percent range during the afternoon on Thursday, but
gradual recovery is expected Friday into the weekend.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield/Swiggett
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Danco
FIRE WEATHER...Swiggett/Leins
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
913 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Our area 9pm temps have gone up in a few spots and down in most
for now, but the skies are filling fast with cirrus blow off from
thunderstorms in N TX and S OK and some mid and low too. The NW
winds aloft are deep from just below H500 on up through the
sensible atmosphere with 95KT on our sounding up at 40kft. The
clouds arriving will actually work in the warmer guidance NBM
number`s favor, despite many sites calm and still sporting dew
points in the 50 to 60 range over the area right now. The HRRR and
NBM work to increase those dew point values overnight, so for
this update sky was the main focus with mostly cloudy skies on
the way and rain not too far behind after midnight. /24/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
A surface boundary remains stalled this afternoon along the I-30
corridor with attention turning towards late evening and overnight
convective initiation along the boundary. South of this boundary, a
warm afternoon continues across the Four State Region, as many area
climate sites have climbed as much as 10 deg F since the mid morning
update. Expect for a few more hours of warming ahead of sunset, with
temperatures falling off into the overnight.
Overnight, and as previously mentioned, hi-res CAMs suggest
thunderstorm development along the boundary axis across southern
Oklahoma as supportive WAA advances northward, with the convective
mode extending east into northeast Texas and southeastern Oklahoma
through early Wednesday AM. Confidence is highest in gusty winds
being the primary focus with developing thunderstorms. A local
hail threat does exist, but it is worth noting that lapse rates
across the northern zones are marginal. There remains some
uncertainty surrounding the southward extent of the convection
into Wednesday as the boundary sags south towards the I-20
corridor. That being said, Wednesday maxT`s do account for some
convective and frontal influence as temperatures from the I-20
corridor and north settle in the 70`s, while communities south of
the boundary return to the 80`s.
KNAPP
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
The long term period advertises daily rain chances across the D3-7
forecast. Sub-tropical shortwave influence working across Mexico
will advect mid-level energy across the local area late Thursday,
into Friday. The rather slow eastward progression of the mid-level
feature will allow for rain chances to prevail through the end of
the week, heading into the weekend. Global solutions do suggest
that much of the rain should be displaced east of the FA come
Saturday afternoon, but with a lifting warm front and a very
saturated airmass in advance of a robust frontal passage late
Sunday, Saturday should be on the humid side.
As mentioned, all of this falls in advance of a robust surface cold
front that will work south and east late Sunday afternoon, into
Sunday night/early Monday AM. The Storm Prediction Center continues
to highlight a broad region of the CONUS, including much of the
Ark-La-Tex, in a 15 percent Slight Risk. This falls in line with
the latest ML output suggesting the same solution. Currently,
questions do surround local forcing strength, timing and the
southward extend of the severe potential. That being said, whether
storms do develop locally or not, conducive parameters will be in
place during the advertised period such that if storms were to
develop, they may quickly become severe with all modes possible.
For now, it is worth monitoring the forecast as this far out,
changes are to be expected. Beyond the weekend, and heading into
next week, the influence of the passing cold front looks to
support highs in the 70`s to finish out the long term period.
KNAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 26/00Z TAF
period. While AC cigs will linger tonight over SE OK/SW AR, these
cigs should gradually fill as they spread SE into portions of
NCntrl/NE LA overnight. In addition, AC and cirrus cigs will also
begin to increase across E TX this evening, as widely scattered
convection continues to develop across portions of N TX, with
coverage increasing mainly N of the DFW Metroplex along the Middle
Red River Valley after 06Z Wednesday. This convection should
gradually spread SE into portions of extreme SE OK/NE TX/extreme
SW AR overnight, possibly affecting the TXK/ELD terminals between
09-12Z. The I-20 terminals between TYR and MLU may be affected
by/after 12Z, and persist through much of the morning before
diminishing some during the afternoon. Embedded TSRA will be
possible, but given the intermittent nature of this deeper
convection, have omitted VCTS mention in the TAFs attm and
maintained VCSH, although some tempo thunder mention may be
included in later forecasts. The resultant convection should lower
cigs between 7-10kft overnight tonight through Wednesday morning,
before some minor improvement is expected for the afternoon. In
addition, some slight vsby reductions can not be ruled out
especially over portions of NE TX, but N and W of the TYR/GGG/TXK
terminals. Farther S away from the convection, a scattered cu
field should develop by midday over portions of Deep E TX and
Cntrl LA. Lt/Vrb winds tonight will become ENE around 5kts by mid
to late morning Wednesday. /15/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Spotter activation may be needed late tonight over portions of
Northeast Texas for isolated strong thunderstorms that may
develop and move into these areas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 61 78 60 81 / 20 40 0 10
MLU 57 74 57 81 / 10 40 0 0
DEQ 54 74 53 80 / 50 50 10 10
TXK 57 73 57 81 / 40 50 10 10
ELD 54 72 54 81 / 20 50 0 0
TYR 61 81 61 77 / 20 30 0 30
GGG 59 78 58 79 / 20 30 0 20
LFK 60 84 61 77 / 0 10 0 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...15
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
605 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances develop late Wednesday and will continue through
Friday. There is a low chance of severe weather for the northern
Edwards Plateau Thursday afternoon and evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
A cumulus field was developing from Mason to Coleman to Baird and
eastward this afternoon. Will add an isolated thunderstorm to
those areas through sunset due to daytime heating.
Otherwise low level moisture will continue to move north into the
region overnight, with low cloudiness developing along the I-10
corridor Wednesday morning. An upper trough will approach the
region from the southwest late in the afternoon. Isolated
showers/thunderstorm develop in the HRRR and NAM NEST
models...mainly along I-10 north to San Angelo. GFS MUCAPES do get
into the 1000-1500 J/KG range in the late afternoon, so a strong
storm or even an isolated severe storm is possible, mainly over
southern sections, including Crockett and Sutton counties.
The best chance of rain will hold off until Wednesday night and
Thursday, however. It would be slightly cooler Wednesday with
highs in the mid 80s with increasing cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Rain chances continue to look favorable for the Wednesday night
into Thursday night time-frame. An upper level trough will make
its way through Texas slowly from Wednesday through Saturday.
Ahead of the main low, a lead shortwave will move across west
central Texas Wednesday night, which will bring a chance for
showers and thunderstorms, mainly south and west of a Brownwood to
Abilene line. The main upper trough will move across the area
during the day Thursday. With plenty of moisture, precipitable
waters averaging around 1 inch, and cool temperatures aloft,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected to develop
across much of the area. Most areas should see precipitation at
some point between early Thursday morning and late Thursday night.
Although there will likely be some brief heavy downpours, we are
not expecting widespread heavy rainfall at this time. The other
concern for Thursday will be the chance for some of the storms to
become strong to severe, mainly across the northern Edwards
Plateau, with surface based CAPE values between 500 J/kg and 1000
J/kg. The main concerns will be hail up to an inch, and wind gusts
approaching 60 mph. Expect the precipitation to move out of the
area by the end of the day Friday, with warmer temperatures.
Temperatures will be cooler Thursday (highs in the 70s) with
mostly cloudy skies and potential rainfall.
Expect dry weather Saturday through Monday, with highs in the 80s
to near 90 degrees on Saturday and Sunday. A cold front is still
expected to move through the area Sunday evening, bringing cooler
temperatures Monday, with highs mainly in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
VFR conditions should remain across West Central Texas terminals
through most of tonight, but MVFR cigs are likely to make run
towards the southern terminals after sunrise Wednesday morning.
Have included a mention of cigs in the 1k-2k range for a few hours
tomorrow morning at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. South winds tonight
should become a little more southeast during the day on Wednesday
with a few gusts near 20 knots across the area.
Will monitor chances for showers and storms tomorrow as well.
High resolution models are having their difference by late
Wednesday afternoon with the extent of convection. Too early to
add into the terminal forecast but will be monitored closely.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 62 86 61 73 / 10 10 20 70
San Angelo 59 86 58 71 / 0 10 40 90
Junction 56 85 57 70 / 0 20 60 90
Brownwood 58 86 59 72 / 20 10 20 80
Sweetwater 61 86 60 74 / 0 10 30 80
Ozona 59 81 59 70 / 0 30 70 90
Brady 59 84 60 68 / 20 10 40 90
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07