Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/25/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1022 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered sprinkles or light rain showers may impact areas
near and east of the I-29 corridor through this evening, but
high confidence in rainfall amounts remaining under 0.10
inches. Low rain chances return Tuesday in portions of
southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa.
- Near to above normal temperatures persist through the week.
Expect high temperatures in the 70s to perhaps lower 80s by
Friday.
- Very high fire grassland fire danger develops with gusty
northwest winds Tuesday afternoon. Use caution to avoid
sparking an unintentional fire.
- The next chance for widespread, beneficial rain spreads in
Friday evening, lingering into Sunday. If you have outdoor
plans for this weekend, you will want to continue to monitor
the forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025
TONIGHT: Weak disturbances aloft continue to bring mid clouds and
occasional sprinkles or light rain sliding through the region this
afternoon and evening. Can`t rule out brief sprinkles or light rain
early this evening east of I-29. Timed low (<20%) rain chances to
near the HRRR runs which are handling current radar echos the best,
but chances are quite low thanks to a stout dry subcloud layer.
Expect weak cold air advection in northwest flow to bring a cool
night with overnight lows ranging from the upper 20s (north of I-90)
to mid 30s (Missouri River valley).
TUESDAY: A slightly stronger shortwave aloft slides through
Minnesota and Iowa Tuesday. Mid level saturation from warm air
advection should work to increase mid level cloud cover Tuesday
morning, but subcloud layer dry air should limit any rain to
sprinkles until afternoon to early evening. The slightly stronger
disturbance brings a bit better chance of rain, but high confidence
in amounts remaining under 0.10 inches, drier the further west you
go. Northwest gradient winds Tuesday should gust into the 20s and
even 30s, stronger further west.
Near and west of the I-29 corridor, the greater impact Tuesday will
be very high fire danger with increased sunshine and drier air
mixing down. High confidence in gusts exceeding 25 mph Tuesday
afternoon, but lower confidence in humidity values with the forecast
trending sunnier and slightly warmer today. Will need to monitor
temperature and dew point trends for near critical
conditions and potential upgrade to Red Flag Warning.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: A surface high builds southeast through
the Northern Plains Tuesday night, bringing one more chilly night
with temperatures dropping near to below the freezing mark.
Wednesday looks to be dry and uneventful. Warm air advection and
returning southerly flow bring lighter winds and stave off fire
danger concerns.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: Weak ridge riding disturbances in
northwest flow bring a low chance of rain, mostly south of I-90.
High confidence in a warming trend for the second half of the week,
with highs reach the 60s to 70s Thursday and even perhaps some 80s
by Friday.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: A strong Colorado Low ejects into the
Central Plains Saturday morning. Ahead of the wave, the inverted sfc
trough/warm front and broad warm air advection pose some threat of
periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.
At this point, the highest rain chances come late Friday night
through Saturday evening. Some potential for isolated strong to
severe storms even develops if the deep layer shear can catch
up to the unstable warm sector Friday night into early Saturday.
Ensembles favor a moderate chance (30-50%) of 0.10 inches of
rain or more across the region, focused more on TROWAL moisture
(Saturday afternoon and night) than convection. Fortunately,
system placement looks to be warm enough to keep the dominant
precipitation type as rain, but anyone with outdoor plans this
weekend will want to monitor the forecast for updates.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025
Sprinkles and light rain showers will come to an end east of I-29
over the next few hours. Otherwise conditions will remain VFR
through the period. The main concern will be northwest winds during
the day Tuesday, from roughly 16z to 23z, where gusts of 30 to
35 mph are likely. Additional rain showers will be possible in
mainly southwest MN on Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BP
AVIATION...08
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
800 PM MDT Mon Mar 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very low chance (~5%) of gusty to strong wind potential
(around 50 mph) with isolated virga showers this afternoon.
- Above normal temperatures expected through the week with
record highs temperatures possible Thursday and Friday (highs
25 - 30 degrees above normal), potentially even approaching
monthly record highs.
- An active pattern is expected next weekend, including the
potential for rain and storms.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 746 PM MDT Mon Mar 24 2025
RAP and NAM both show an increase of mid level moisture as a
subtle shortwave moves towards the area. Have seen some echos
developing along the I-80 corridor and do think that these will
continue to move towards the northeast portion of the area in
the form of sprinkles at best as dew point depressions continue
to remain around 25 degrees. There has also been some other
hints at some additional sprinkles or showers developing off of
the Palmer Divide as there may be some hints of this potential
starting as cloud cover has really increased over the past 30-45
minutes. If these do form then sudden and sporadic wind gusts
of 45-55 mph may be possible with some of these as they decay as
mid level lapse rates are higher across that area around 7.5
C/km.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Mon Mar 24 2025
A weak shortwave coming down across the region in association with a
125kt northwest flow jet over the Northern/Central Plains has been
responsible for mainly high clouds across eastern Colorado/western
Nebraska/northwest Kansas. BUFKIT profiles show through the course
of the late afternoon/evening that these high clouds continue to
thicken, with some shallow mid-level instability up above the
freezing level (about 8-12kft thick). Dewpoint depressions at the
base of these inverted-V soundings are about 16-18C and currently
we`ve got temps in the upper 60s/low 70s with dewpoints around 30F.
Thus while the previous shift has some sprinkles, that would still
be a tall order. Additionally, still no returns upstream. That said,
the reasoning, and impacts are still valid with these dry
microbursts soundings expected through the evening.
Really not much to add for tonights weather with clearing and
slackening winds under weak surface high pressure. Weak mid level
cold advection would translate to a slightly cooler day Tuesday,
however less cloud cover for tomorrow should be enough to counteract
the 1-2C difference at 700mb so will go with a slight increase over
todays highs.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Mon Mar 24 2025
The current northwesterly flow pattern between a ridge over the
western CONUS and a trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio River
Valley will give way at the start of the period as the ridge shifts
east across the region. This will lead to temperatures warming to
near or potentially record values for Thursday and Friday and a lack
of precip for the end of the work week. The weather then will become
unsettled for Friday night and the weekend as a weakly amplified
trough sweeps through the area. At this time, measurable
precipitation is likely (50-80% chance) Friday night into Saturday,
but there is only a 10-30% chance of accumulations over 0.25".
The forecast period will start out with decreasing clouds on
Wednesday, with any isolated showers departing in the morning hours.
That clearing will help temps warm into the mid 70s and while winds
do gust to the 25-30mph range out of the south during the afternoon,
the RH values stay in the 20-30% range and above critical fire
weather values.
Expect really warm temperatures for Thursday and Friday, as the
upper ridge builds over the area and we`re in the warm sector of a
surface low taking shape near the WY/SD/ND border region. Current
deterministic NBM forecast of highs in the mid-upper 80s is sitting
around the 5th-10th percentile, with even the 50th percentile being
around or slightly above 90 degrees. Thus, expecting daily record
highs to occur at most/all climate sites on Thursday, and possibly
on Friday (records are a little higher on Fri). In addition, the
March record high temperature at Goodland (90 in 1907) also has the
potential to be broken. Friday`s temperatures may depend on where
the previously mentioned surface low and cold front lines up as they
sag southeast through the end of the week. Right now, it`s looking
like the low will be in northeast NE, with the front stretching
southwest into northeast CO. Do want to mention fire weather on
Friday, as the southwesterly winds ahead of the front do increase
through the day and gust to the 20-25kt range. RH values at
this time largely look to be above critical values (upper teens
to lower 20s), but will need to monitor the timing of the front
and the influence on the winds/RH.
Precipitation potential arrives this weekend, as the upper ridge
shifts to the east and a weak upper trough moves east out of the
central Rockies. Still a decent amount of variability in the
ensembles on the timing/location/intensity of a couple rounds of
shortwave energy rotating around the upper trough. That being said,
does look like some potential for precipitation (24hr probs of
measurable precip are 50-80% - greatest north) Friday night into
Saturday and then again sometime Saturday night into Sunday as the
next round of energy works through. That second round features lower
PoPs (~20%) at this time, due to the variety of tracks of that
energy as it moves into the central Plains and the loss of lower
level support as the low departs into the mid Mississippi Valley. As
mentioned above for Friday night into Saturday, NBM probs of 0.25"
of accumulation range from 10-20% south of I-70 to 30-40% in
southern NE. While there is the potential for thunder as the front
moves through, it`s really looking like the ingredients are offset
enough to limit chances to just very low end (5% or less)
probability of severe weather. The moisture return is limited, with
ML dewpoints potentially rising to around 50 Friday into Saturday
over the eastern CWA (keeping MLCAPE values at or below 1k J/kg).
Then the shear is really limited ahead of the front (<20kts) and
could be favorable in a very narrow corridor along the front. Even
then, it does look like most of the precipitation will be post
frontal and not in any area with favorable instability. That matches
up with the latest AI/ML probabilities from CSU/NSSL/NCAR, which are
generally around 5% and focused farther east with the higher
probabilities.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 451 PM MDT Mon Mar 24 2025
VFR conditions are currently forecasted for this TAF period.
Northerly winds are forecast to continue with a brief
continuation of the gusty winds at KMCK before waning. There is
a potential around 5-10% of gusty to windy virga/showers for
each terminal this evening. Due to low confidence of them
evening forming due to dry air in place will leave out of the
TAF for now but will keep a close eye as AMD may be needed. Deep
mixing is forecast to occur Tuesday afternoon bringing some
sporadic wind gusts of 20-25 knots.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...ABR
LONG TERM...ABR
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1047 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move off the coast this evening, and a
second front will cross the area late Tuesday. High pressure
builds into the region on Wednesday and will slowly push
off the coast ahead of a cold front on Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Lowered POP to slight chance given the flaky instability but
still forcing from the cold front itself available.
Nevertheless, some tweaking of the sky cover based on latest
near term high res models and sat loop trends. No appreciable
min temp changes other than tweaking hrly temp/dewpoints from
current trends and massaging them to the overall fcst. Still
slow diminishing and veering trend in the wind field over the
local waters, having already dropped below SCA thresholds by 7pm
this evening and continuing to lower. Weak CAA at best after
the CFP as the sfc pg further relaxes as well as the loss of the
LLJ. Seas to follow suit and subside, taking a bit longer S of
Cape Fear to Murrells Inlet.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers supported by modest mid level isentropic lift and
very small elevated instability are weakening as they approach
the coast. Mesonet rainfall totals so far have only amounted to
0.03" in Red Springs, NC; 0.09" in Chavistown, SC; and 0.11" a
few miles north of Bennettsville, SC. Odds for additional
measurable precip are less than 40 percent as these showers
move off the coast late this afternoon.
A second line of showers supported instability enhanced by
cooling mid level temps could develop along the surface cold
front later this evening. HRRR and NAMnest models suggest the
best coverage will exist across southeastern NC where forecast
PoPs after sunset are 30- 40 percent. Given deeper instability
associated with tonight`s showers a few spots may pick up more
significant rainfall than has been observed with round number
one. The cold front should sweep offshore after midnight with
dry air advecting in on light northerly winds. One unanswered
question is given the lack of a post-frontal wind surge, will
cool and humid air within a radiational inversion get scoured
out after the front goes through? If not, areas of fog could
develop as shown in the 12z NAMnest model across inland South
Carolina. No fog is currently in the forecast given the low
confidence in this scenario.
Light winds are expected Tuesday morning as high pressure
moves by to our south. Southerly winds will increase during the
afternoon in a combination of veering synoptic winds ahead of
low pressure developing to our north plus local seabreeze winds
near the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak short-wave trough and surface low will cross the Eastern
Carolinas at the beginning of the period. The trough will be
starved for moisture, but an 850 millibar low-level jet of 35
to 40 knots will quickly traverse the region before 06 UTC on
Wednesday. A surface high will be centered over the Tennessee
and North Carolina border by sunrise Thursday.
High temperatures in the lower 70s, except the upper 60s at the
beaches, are expected Wednesday. Low temperatures on Tuesday
night will be in the lower 40s inland and the mid-40s at the
beaches. Wednesday night`s lows will be a few degrees warmer.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure is expected to dominate the weather through the
weekend. High pressure centered over western Carolinas will
slowly shift overhead late Thursday and move off the coast late
Sunday. Dry weather is expected through Sunday morning, with
increasing precipitation chances ahead of a cold front that
will shift across the Carolinas on Monday.
Temperatures will dip after frontal passage on Wednesday but
will warm to above-normal temperatures by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Moderate to high confidence in VFR through 06Z except for the
coastal terminals where enough moisture and instability to
support showers along the cold front pushing across the area.
Could see a brief period of MVFR but for now kept ceilings and
reduced vsby just above MVFR within a Prob30 group between
03z-06z. By and/or after 06Z, VFR conditions to dominate thru
the end of the fcst period as the cold front pushes off the
Carolina coasts and offshore, taking with it any residual low
to mid clouds. By daybreak, few cirrus possible leftover. Weak
sfc ridging from the Gulf will be overhead thru Tue midday than
sliding east off the Carolina coasts and offshore during Tue
afternoon. Gusty SW winds ahead of the cold front will diminish
to W to NW around 5 kt after the CFP tonight. The area terminals
will observe the backside of the high Tue aftn with S (Coastal
terminals) to SW (inland terminals) winds increasing to 10+ kt
as the aftn sfc pg tightens.
Extended Outlook...High confidence in VFR conditions through
the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Breezy southwest winds gusting as high as 34
knots at Mercer Pier at Wrightsville Beach and 27 knots at the
Frying Pan Shoals buoy should begin to decrease significantly
over the next few hours as light showers move across the area.
The pressure gradient appears weaker behind the mid level
impulse supporting the showers, and the atmosphere should lose
the potential to produce 25 kt winds shortly. We`ll leave the
Small Craft Advisory in effect although it may need to be
canceled an hour or two early.
A second line of showers may form along the actual surface
cold front that should approach the coast shortly after
midnight. Winds should shift to the north behind this front as
a weak area of high pressure develops across the Southeast for
Tuesday. Onshore winds will develop Tuesday afternoon as the
seabreeze circulation develops.
Tuesday night through Saturday,
A cold front will cross the coastal waters Tuesday evening, and
high pressure will ridge across the waters on Wednesday. This
high pressure will shift off the coast on Saturday. Southwest
winds of 10 to 15 knots on Tuesday will veer to the Northwest
on Wednesday and weaken. As the high pressure becomes
established winds will be light. Seas are expected to range
2 to 3 feet through the period.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...TRA/RH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025
- Well above normal temperatures are expected Tuesday through Wednesday.
- A weather system brings showers and thunderstorms to the region
beginning on Wednesday and lasting through Friday. There is
medium (40-60%) confidence in eastern portions of the area
receiving a quarter to a half an inch of rain during this
period.
- Dry weather, gusty winds, and well above normal temperatures
return by the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025
A pretty quiet and warm short-term ahead. Latest satellite imagery
and RAP analysis shows a weak mid-level disturbance near the region
extending into Baja California, alongside a mid-level ridge building
across the West Coast. The weak disturbance breaks down and the mid-
level ridge builds in near the region tonight which will set up a
warming trend throughout the short-term forecast period. Tonight,
low temperatures are forecasted to be around 10 degrees warmer than
last night, spanning from the mid 40s to 50s regionwide. Well above
normal temperatures continue into tomorrow as the mid-level ridge
hovers over the Rockies, providing downsloping winds and dry
conditions across the region. High temperatures are anticipated to
range from the mid 80s to lower 90s, with some locations along the
Rio Grande reaching near 100 degrees. There is medium (40-50%)
confidence in temperatures reaching 90 degrees on Tuesday for the
Midland/Odessa area. If this occurs, these temperatures will be two
weeks ahead of schedule of the average first 90F day. The mid-level
ridge is expected to continue further eastward heading into Tuesday
night. Tuesday night/Wednesday morning low temperatures remain warm
in the 50s to mid 60s areawide.
Lamberson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025
Our next weather system begins to influence the region by Wednesday
afternoon. A leading shortwave trough ahead of the larger trough
making landfall near Baja helps to initiate afternoon showers and
thunderstorms for portions of the area. The highest (40-60%)
confidence for precipitation remains focused south and west of the
Pecos River initially with the leading shortwave. Temperatures
continue their warm streak as large-scale ridging continues across
much of the southern Great Plains despite the increasing clouds.
Widespread afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s are
expected. The main trough quickly approaches the region on Thursday.
While shower and thunderstorm chances increase area-wide, the
greatest (60-80%) rain chances remain generally focused south of the
Pecos River. This is the result of these locations remaining closer
to the base of the trough as it swings across northern Mexico into
Central Texas by Thursday afternoon. The passing trough and rainfall
potential keep temperatures cooler as everyone struggles to climb
through the 70s. The trough begins to depart the area heading into
Thursday night and clears us to the east on Friday. A few showers
and thunderstorms may hang on across eastern portions of the area as
this occurs. There is medium (40-60%) confidence that many locations
south of I-20 can expect to see a quarter to half an inch of rain
with this weather system. A much need reprieve from the dry weather.
The severe weather risk with thunderstorms appears low at this
juncture. While instability will be sufficient for thunderstorms,
thunderstorm wind shear remains lacking. With that said, small hail
and strong winds can not be ruled out for now.
Upper-level ridging makes a quick return by the weekend pushing
temperatures back way above normal. It should remain warm and dry
with relatively quiet conditions. The only exception comes from a
passing weather system well north of the region, increasing wind
speeds for many portions of the area. This gusty west wind is not
anticipated to cause major hazardous weather for now. The warm and
dry weather carries over into next week.
-Chehak
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through this period. Light south-
southwesterly to westerly winds continue throughout most of this TAF
period except for CNM, INK, and FST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 52 91 57 84 / 0 0 0 10
Carlsbad 49 88 52 82 / 0 0 0 30
Dryden 55 91 61 82 / 0 0 0 30
Fort Stockton 54 91 62 84 / 0 0 0 30
Guadalupe Pass 54 80 56 74 / 0 0 0 40
Hobbs 48 87 51 81 / 0 0 0 20
Marfa 47 83 53 77 / 0 10 0 50
Midland Intl Airport 53 89 58 82 / 0 0 0 20
Odessa 55 89 59 82 / 0 0 0 20
Wink 49 90 57 84 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...55
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
416 PM MST Mon Mar 24 2025
.UPDATE...Updated 00z Aviation Discussion...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably strong high pressure will continue to build over the
region with recording breaking temperatures likely early this
week. Temperatures across the lower deserts will peak in the mid
to upper 90s Tuesday with some of the warmest locations
potentially reaching triple digits. A cooling trend during the
latter half of the week will push high temperatures back into the
eighties by Friday as dry conditions continue to prevail.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably warm, record-breaking temperatures will be the
primary weather story to start off the workweek as a strong ridge
of high pressure builds over the region. The latest RAP analysis
shows this upper level ridge building over the western CONUS,
promoting dry conditions and clear skies locally. Heights will
continue to rise today over the region as the ridge strengthens
and shifts eastward. Going through the rest of today and into
tomorrow, 500 mb heights will rise into the 99th climatological
percentile as these heights peak around 582-584 dm. Temperatures
will respond warming into the low to mid 90s today before peaking
Tuesday into the mid to upper 90s across the lower deserts. Some
of the warmest lower desert locales will have a shot at even
reaching the triple digits. Daily record highs are likely to be
challenged or broken today and tomorrow in Phoenix, Yuma, and El
Centro. These sites will also come within several degrees of their
monthly record highs as well, especially in Phoenix where the
all-time record high for March is 100 degrees. The latest NBM
shows upwards of a 60-70% chance of some of the warmest locations,
including Phoenix, reaching 100 degrees Tuesday. If Phoenix
reaches 100 degrees Tuesday, not only would it be the all-time
high for March but also the earliest 100 degree occurrence on
record, beating the current record of March 26, 1988 by one day.
Record warm lows are also likely over the next few days. Moderate
HeatRisk will expand across the area Tuesday, so folks,
particularly those sensitive to the heat, should exercise the
proper heat safety precautions.
Heading into the latter half of the week, a weak upper level trough
will start pushing into the region and northern Mexico late Tuesday
into early Wednesday, leading to gradual height falls. Temperatures
as a result will cool a few degrees Wednesday and Thursday but will
continue to run well above normal in the lower to mid 90s. A much
larger and colder Pacific upper level trough will also approach the
Northwestern U.S. coast at the same time before it eventually begins
to have some influence on our region by Friday. Ensemble guidance
continues to show this trough largely staying to our northwest late
this week into next weekend as it slowly weakens, but it will at
least bring a more noticeable cooling trend as highs dip into the
mid 80s Friday and into the lower 80s on Saturday. In addition to
the cooling trend, ensemble guidance indicate an increase in
breeziness across the region Friday, which combined with dry
conditions may lead to some elevated fire weather conditions. The
near normal temperatures for the end of the week may only last for a
day or two as models generally favor quasi-zonal flow and a slow
warming trend taking over across our region by early next week. Dry
conditions will continue to prevail through at least early next week
with only periods of higher level clouds at times across the
region.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2315Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns under generally clear skies are
expected throughout the TAF period. The overall wind pattern will
continue to exhibit the typical diurnal tendencies with light
speeds aob 7 kts. Extended periods of directional variability to
even calm conditions are likely, especially during diurnal
transitions.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong high pressure will persist across the region through the week
with temperatures reaching 10F-15F above normal during the first
half of the week. Minimum afternoon humidity levels will
consistently fall into the teens, and occasionally single digits
over lower elevations during the middle of the week. This will
follow mostly poor to fair overnight recovery between 20-40%.
Overall light winds will continue through much of this week with
the typical seasonal afternoon upslope gustiness. There may be an
increase in breezy conditions by the end of the week with some
elevated fire weather conditions possible by Friday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures this week:
Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro
---- ------- ---- ---------
Mar 24 94 in 1990 96 in 2008 93 in 1988
Mar 25 96 in 2022 99 in 1896 94 in 2022
Mar 26 100 in 1988 99 in 1988 98 in 1988
Mar 27 98 in 1986 100 in 1986 99 in 1988
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Smith/Kuhlman
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Smith/Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Kuhlman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated to localized significant fire danger this afternoon
across portions of southeast KS into southwest MO. Minimum
relative humidity values around 20 to 30%, with southwest
wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph. Elevated fire danger persists
through Tuesday.
- High confidence in above normal temperatures through the week,
with temperatures approaching 10 to 15 degrees above normal
by late week. Highs in the 70s to near 80.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances (40-70%) return late week into
the weekend. There is still a good deal of uncertainty, but
confidence is increasing in severe weather occuring somewhere
across the central Plains late this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025
Satellite data paired with RAP analysis shows that the large-
scale pattern has become relatively steady-state and consistent
through the depth of the atmosphere. This consists of a longwave
over the CONUS with troughing over the NE and ridging of the SW.
The exit region of a NW-SE oriented jet streak is pushing across
central MO, providing lift for some light sprinkles. Radar is
picking up on light echoes aloft toward central MO, but observed
and model soundings depict dry air near the surface. Therefore,
not much precipitation is expected to reach the ground, though
some sprinkles could occur in areas that receive persistent
virga (mainly toward central MO).
Elevated to significant fire danger this afternoon:
Observed relative humidities are in the 20-30% range across the
region as temperatures warm into the 60s and lower 70s behind
an exiting cold front that brought in drier air. Some areas,
including those closer to the southern border, have RHs in the
teens as temperatures are warmer in this region. For the most
part, winds are light to modest out of the southwest. However,
observations in southern Kansas show sustained winds between
15-25 mph south of a subtle surface pressure trough. These winds
will translate into southeast Kansas during the afternoon, which
could elevate conditions to Red Flag criteria.
Elevated fire danger persists through Tuesday:
Winds pick up a bit Tuesday and shift to out of the northwest at
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. Relative humidities
will once again hove in the 20-30% range as highs reach the
upper 60s and lower 70s. This will bring elevated fire weather
danger once again. As with today, if winds pick up a tad and RHs
drop a bit, a short-fused Red Flag Warning may be needed.
Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025
High confidence in above normal temperatures through the week:
As the large-scale ridging slowly jogs eastward, the Gulf will
open up and southerly surface winds will bring in warmer and
more moist air. NBM spreads are pretty small, showing high
confidence in highs warming into the middle and upper 70s
Thursday through Saturday. The NBM deterministic is starting to
catch up with our previous forecast thoughts in that high
temperatures could reach the 80s. The deterministic is inching
closer to the 25th to 50th percentile with each subsequent
forecast, increasing confidence that temperatures will be well
above normal late this week. The Extreme Forecast Index
continues to agree with values at 0.8-0.9.
Shower and thunderstorm chances return late week:
As noted in previous AFDs, a subtle shortwave will undercut the
large ridge and tap into a more broad open warm sector with
moisture and warmer temperatures. This will bring multiple
chances for showers and thunderstorms late this week. There are
daily chances Thursday through Sunday. This is partly due to
multiple warm fronts lifting through the area, but also due to
uncertainty in timing, shape, and intensity of the subtle wave
this far out.
Potential for severe thunderstorms sometime late this week:
With a broad warm sector with deterministic models reaching 60
F dewpoints Saturday, instability will be plentiful for severe
storms. The SPC has issued a broad Day 6 and 7 15% outlook for
our area (Saturday and Sunday). The broad area is also partly
due to the large warm sector, but also differences in models. We
will hone in on details as we get closer to the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Expect
breezy NW winds on Tuesday, with gusts at each site.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Titus