Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/24/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
717 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 25 to 40 percent chance of rain Monday, highest
in north central South Dakota. At most, up to 0.05 inches of
rain will occur at any one location.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 717 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
The Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire. There are a few
gusts near 40mph still over mainly north central SD and just
downslope of the Prairie Coteau. Temperatures already near 30
degrees over and east of the Prairie Coteau will only drop a few
more degrees by daybreak Monday. Lows will be in the 20s to near
30 degrees (highest west of the MO River).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
An upper level trough currently centered just east of the region
will continue to track eastward tonight, leaving northwest flow in
its wake. This flow pattern will then be dominant through the near
term period, with some weak energy tracking across the area on
Monday.
At the surface, winds on the back side of a low pressure system now
tracking across Minnesota continue to gust in excess of 40 mph at
times this afternoon. Therefore, will let the current Wind Advisory
remain in effect through 00Z. High pressure will settle in over the
region this evening and into the overnight hours, with winds
becoming light. A boundary associated with low pressure over Montana
will reach the western and central CWA late tonight and Monday, and
in association with the upper level energy, may be the focus for
some light rain. Amounts look to be minimal, with any one location
likely seeing less than five hundredths of an inch. The boundary
will drift further to the east Monday night, but with no real upper
support left over the area, expect conditions to be dry.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 20s to the lower 30s.
High temperatures on Monday will be in the 50s. Lows Monday night
will be mainly in the 30s, with a few locations across south central
South Dakota likely only bottoming out in the lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Clusters are still consistent on a ridge to our west along with a
deep low over the Pacific Ocean on Tuesday, with the ridge moving
slightly east by Wednesday. By Thursday, the ridge`s axis will be
over the eastern Rockies/western Plains as this low over the Pacific
shifts more north, then northwest back out to sea and weakens into
Friday. The trough, from this low, will move in over the western
CONUS on Friday as the ridge shifts further east, creating more of a
-PNA pattern. Beyond this time gets a little messy between the
ensembles but overall trend is that this trough will split and shift
east/northeast and over the central CONUS through the weekend. At
the surface, a weak low will be departing the region, centered over
eastern MO/western IL by 12Z Tuesday, with a surface trough
extending northwest and through the eastern Dakotas. Rap indicates
weak northwest flow energy aloft along and east of the Coteau, some
omega, and 1000-500mb RH of 80%+ could lead to lingering ongoing
showers in this area. However ENS/GEPS/GEFS keep this band of precip
a bit further east. Latest NBM has 15-25 pops for this area with
little to no rainfall amounts. Otherwise, winds will increase a bit
Tuesday afternoon with gusts of 20-30kts. This will lead to elevated
fire danger through Tuesday evening. A high moves in behind it and
over the Northern Plains through Wednesday, keeping the area dry.
Early Friday morning, models are not too far off on the center of the
low, forecasted to be positioned over ~SD/NE border by 12Z Friday as
it elongates and a Colorado Low forms and deepens by Friday evening.
This system will then shift east across KS/NE and then northeast.
Through the weekend, as of now, ENS is a bit faster on the low`s
progression and track compared to GEFS with ENS being a bit deeper
of a low by 12Z Sunday than GEFS. It is hard at this time to give
any specifics being several days out but it does look like rain to
start Friday, changing to snow or a rain/snow mix by Sunday,
depending on how cold the temps get at night or during the day
(could stay as rain if warmer). Low confidence on exact setup for
now which is indicated by NBM as pops of 40-50% cover the entire CWA
Saturday through Sunday. NBM prob of 48hour QPF>0.25", ending Sunday
morning ranges from 45-60% highest over eastern SD into west central
MN. Prob of 1" of snow for the same time period is 30-45%, over
northeastern SD into west central MN, highest over the Coteau.
With the ridge to our west then overhead, temps will continue to
warm through the week with highs in the 50s and 60s Tuesday and
Wednesday and 60s/70s for the end of the week. Cooler air does
filter with/behind the system for next weekend, back in the 40s by
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 717 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
Mainly VFR conditions will continue, and winds gusting 25-35mph
initially will diminish to less than 10kts by around 06Z Monday.
Light rain and the potential for high end MVFR ceilings will
return to PIR from 13-21Z Monday.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...06
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...06
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
930 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Medium chances for rain on Monday, with possibly a little
light freezing rain on the leading edge Monday morning. Any
precipitation amounts are expected to be light.
- Low chances for light rain southwest and a light wintry mix
north central into the James River Valley Monday night.
- Gradual warming trend Monday through Thursday.
- Turning colder with widespread medium chances for rain and
snow Friday through Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
No major changes to the forecast were performed at the time of
this update. Weak reflectivities continue to be found over
portions of northwestern North Dakota though a dry near surface
layer, as indicated by dewpoint depressions generally from 10
to 20 degrees, suggest little to no precipitation is making it
to the ground. DOT cameras support this supposition, with virga
being evident. Otherwise, a deck of midlevel clouds has begin to
intrude from the west. Northwesterly winds have generally
diminished to less than 10 MPH.
UPDATE
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Popcorn convective showers continue to develop along an axis of
minor instability draped over western North Dakota at the time
of this evening update. While much of this falls as virga, a
few eye-witness reports in the northwest have reported liquid
precipitation reaching the ground, accompanied by gusty winds.
In terms of updates performed for this period, have tweaked the
sky grids to account for a slightly more aggressive push of
cloud cover into the west by blending in the latest satellite
observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
The main forecast problem in near term will be winds for the
remainder of this afternoon. Winds are stronger over southern
ND, compared to the north. However, the Wind Advisory isn`t
quite panning out. Bufkit RAP soundings do show the max gust
potential will probably be around 4-6 PM this afternoon, but
even then the potential would be probably just at or below
advisory criteria. Will monitor but think we will go ahead and
cancel the advisory with this issuance, not letting it go until
7 PM. There is also the potential for winds to mix out over
southwest ND to right around advisory criteria for a couple
hours late this afternoon. Not planning on an advisory here.
With max temperatures struggling to reach forecast highs,
afternoon dewpoints may not drop quite as low as thought, but
with the wind potential will keep the near critical fire weather
conditions going through 7 PM.
There are also some convective showers that have developed over
northeast Montana, with an eye on northwest ND. Added some
slight chance pops here to account for this.
The next system will move into the west late tonight into early
Monday morning. The main forecast issue here will be the
potential for light rain falling on sub-freezing surfaces. The
NBM had some spurious pop chances way ahead of the main
precipitation band between 06-12 UTC. This didn`t seem to match
up with short range guidance so utilized a blend of guidance for
pops late tonight into early Monday, then back to NBM with a
blend of the time lagged RAP and HRRR during the day Monday.
With this guidance there is still a brief period of freezing
rain in western ND Monday morning on the leading edge of the
precipitation shield. Think for the most part the precip will be
rain, but can`t rule out a brief period of freezing precip
along the leading edge. Think the far west central into the far
southwest will probably we warm enough for all rain, but as you
get a bit farther east, from around Crosby and Stanley,
southeast to around Beulah and Glen Ullin, which are cool spots
anyway, temperatures may drop below freezing before precip
starts and you could have a period of freezing rain before temps
climb above freezing. East of this area, temps should have
begun to warm above freezing anyway. Precipitation amounts are
expected to be light. The southwest does look to have the
highest chances for some light qpf. The HREF shows medium to
high chances for at least a tenth of an inch QPF Monday morning
over the far west central into southwest ND. Probabilities drop
as you go farther east. Warm advection and layer moisture are
greatest over the southwest Monday morning. Envision a NW-SE
band of precip spreading west to east. As band pushes into
central ND, lower level moisture remains but mid level dry out
and you can see qpf lessening over south central ND. There is a
strong jet over this area, so think there may be at least some
qpf as the band pushes into south central ND. Late in the day
and Monday night, there`s another shortwave impulse dropping
through the mean northwest upper flow, and you can see precip
reinvigorating over north central ND into the James River
Valley. Here again we could see a wintry mix as temperatures
fall in the evening and precip type changes from rain to snow.
During that transition, a brief period of mixed precip,
including freezing rain could be possible. For the most part
though it seems like a transition from rain to snow. Currently
the NBM QPF shows around a tenth of an inch southwest and from
around the Turtle Mountains into the northern James River
Valley, with swath of little or no qpf from northwest ND into
the south central or from Crosby and Stanley southeast through
Garrison Bismarck and Ashley. Precip in eastern portions of
central ND looks to linger into Tuesday morning, before we begin
an warm and dry period Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.
The main concern for this period will be fire weather issues
each afternoon. Minimum humidities drop to around 20-25 percent
Tuesday afternoon over a good portion of southwest ND, and 25-30
percent over south central ND east of the Missouri River. Winds
are expected to be northwest sustained around 20-25 mph, so
something we will need to monitor. Humidities are not as low on
Wednesday (generally near 30 percent far south) and winds also
are not as strong as they transition to southerly early
Wednesday and are more in the 10 to 20 mph range Wednesday
afternoon. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week and we
could see some breezy southerly winds. Currently afternoon
humidities drop down to around 30 percent as there may be some
increasing moisture with the southerly winds, but if it would be
delayed somewhat, the overlap of stronger south winds and lower
humidity Thursday afternoon may be of more concern. We do see a
gradual warm-up from Monday through Thursday with daytime highs
climbing into the lower 40s north central to the upper 60s
southwest.
The latest 6-10 day temperature and precipitation outlook
continue to lean towards above normal precipitation with near to
below normal temperatures. the latest NBM ensemble guidance also
shows a trend towards cooler temperatures after Thursday, and
especially after Friday. However the ensemble spread is quite
large so confidence is low as to if we see a slight cooldown or
something more substantial. NBM ensemble qpf also shows an
uptick in precip Friday and through the weekend. Already, NBM
pops for Friday through Saturday are in the 30 to 60 percent
range, which is pretty good nearly a week out. NBM ensemble qpf
is generally low, but do show some low probabilities of some
higher qpf amounts. We are also seeing some low probabilities of
thunder over the far south central into the Jame River Valley in
the Friday evening timeframe. A cluster analysis for the
Saturday-Sunday timeframe shows a favoring of a couple waves
moving through the area rather than a quick moving open wave
favoring a drier solution, or a deeper and slower solution with
higher qpf over the area. Also, higher qpf looks to be favored
over southern and eastern portions of the CWA, rather than
northwest. We`re still a week out so we`ll see how things play
out as we go through the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
VRF ceilings and visibility can be found at all terminals to
begin the 00Z TAF period. Cloud cover is expected to increase
from west to east this evening overnight ahead of showers
moving in from eastern Montana. MVFR ceilings will develop
across the west by Monday morning, spreading eastward along with
chances for precipitation through the day. Mainly rain is
anticipated at this time, though there may be a brief window in
the early morning where freezing rain is possible. For this
update, have left all mentions of precipitation as -SHRA, though
will need to continue to monitor temperature trends. Gusty
northwest winds will continue to trend downward through the
evening, becoming light and south southwesterly overnight
through Monday morning, then northwesterly again Monday
afternoon through the end of the TAF period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Adam
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...Adam
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
637 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Key Messages:
- Overnight fog develops and carries through Monday morning
- Showers skirting the Crossroads overnight and into early Monday
AM.
- Slight chances of an isolated shower along the Rio Grande Monday
afternoon.
Southerly flow will continue to bring in the warm, humid airmass
into the Coastal Bend. With surface winds diminishing overnight,
forecast soundings points along the Coastal Bend show a shallow,
moist boundary layer capped by drier air aloft. This will allow
radiational and advection fog to surround most of South Texas in
periods of patchy fog. At this time, confidence is not high enough
to issue any headlines, but will have to see how the evening hi-
res models trend with respect to visibility. This all comes as a
surface cold front attempts to make it to the coast, but most CAMs
have the front stalling out just south of the I-10 corridor by
early Monday morning. Concurrently, positive vorticity advection
between 850 hPa and 500 hPa will enhance lift enough to sustain
showers across southeast Texas, with isolated thunderstorms
at times along coastal southeast TX, but it appears that enough
CIN would be in place across the Victoria Crossroads to limit
thunderstorm activity there. By sunrise on Monday, a pre- frontal
wind shift will switch surface winds E/ENE`ly, allowing drier air
to defuse the fog, along with further daytime heating to decouple
the boundary layer.
Monday afternoon, upslope flow along the Sierra Occidental in
Nuevo Leon and Coahuila, along with optimal daytime heating and
convection will allow a few storms to pop up in northeastern
Mexico in the afternoon. The latest run of the HRRR and FV3 are
latching on to this mode of discrete thunderstorms. The CAM
guidance then has these storms moving easterly and diminishing as
they move into lower CAPE values along the Rio Grande. At this
time, felt justified to include slight chances of thunderstorms,
as they move into South Texas, but main hazards, if any, would be
increased wind gusts associated with outflows given the drier
low-levels, should any rain evaporate before reaching the surface.
By Monday night, these weak thunderstorms will quickly shut off
with the loss of daytime heating.
Temps tonight will struggle to drop below 65 degrees, but warm
back up into the upper 80s/low 90s (70s along the coast) by Monday
afternoon. Lows Monday night/Tuesday morning drops back into the
low to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Key Messages:
- Medium to high (50-80%) rain chances towards the middle to latter
part of next week
- Marginal Risk of flash flooding (at least a 5% chance) on Thursday
The warm trend will continue through the extended forecast with
temperatures about 5-10 degrees above normal each day except for
Thursday, where rain cooled air should limit daytime highs to the
mid 70s to lower 80s. Models continue to show good agreement for an
upper level disturbance to move into the area towards the latter
half of the work week promoting our medium to high rain chances.
While it`s still too early to tell just how much rainfall we will
get, there are signs that moderate to heavy rain is possible which
could lead to minor flooding concerns. Therefore, the Weather
Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas under a
Marginal Risk of flash flooding (at least a 5% chance). The limiting
factor will be the extremely dry soils due to the lack of rainfall
the last few months. How much rainfall gets absorbed by the dry
soils will be the key factor in if run off is allowed to occur. Rain
chances are expected to taper off Friday evening setting up another
dry weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Tonight CIGs down to LIFR for eastern terminals and IFR for
western terminals. VSBYs reduced to MVFR across the region. This
is in response to an approaching/stalling weak cold front and
increasing low level moisture, expected to produce low ceilings
and fog overnight tonight. Fog should mix out by around 14Z as
winds back to the northeast. VFR ceilings expected to return by
17-19Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Moderate onshore flow (BF4) winds this afternoon become more light
to gentle (BF2/3) breezes. Monday morning, winds shift to be
more easterly and parallel to the short, while remaining light to
gentle, and returning more onshore by Monday night. Light to
gentle (BF 2-3) winds are expected Tuesday before increasing to
moderate (BF 4) levels Wednesday through the weekend. Rain chances
will increase Thursday and Friday with Thursday night expected to
be the rainiest time period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 67 83 64 84 / 10 10 0 0
Victoria 65 87 60 88 / 20 10 0 0
Laredo 68 90 64 94 / 10 10 10 0
Alice 66 88 62 89 / 10 10 0 0
Rockport 67 80 65 80 / 10 10 0 0
Cotulla 68 90 63 96 / 20 10 10 0
Kingsville 66 86 62 87 / 0 10 0 0
Navy Corpus 67 76 65 76 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AE/82
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...BF/80
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1055 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak wave of low pressure will track just south of
Pennsylvania tonight, then an upper level trough will remain
over the area through the middle of the week. The trough will be
replaced by a building upper level ridge along the East Coast by
late next week, then low pressure is likely to track west of
Pennsylvania through the Great Lakes late next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Regional radar loop at 03Z shows shield of overrunning
precipitation spreading into Central PA ahead of a negatively
tilted upper trough over the Grt Lks. Increasing isentropic lift
along the approaching 50kt low level jet will result in precip
overspreading the rest of the forecast area late this evening.
Linear extrapolation suggests precipitation reaches the eastern
part of the forecast area by around 05Z.
Unimpressive pwats indicate precipitation should be light, with
18Z mean EPS qpf ranging from <0.10 inches over much of the
forecast area, to around 0.20 inches over Lancaster County. As
for ptypes, model soundings support light rain over most of
Central PA. However, a mix of rain and wet snow appears likely
over the N Mtns, where a light snow accum of <1 inch is
possible, especially on the higher ridgetops.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The surface wave and bulk of the precip should shift east of the
forecast area by late Monday morning. Subsidence associated
with an arriving dry slot should result in breaking clouds
Monday with deep mixing leading to gusty WSW winds. Bufkit
soundings support afternoon wgusts of 30-35kts across the
western half of the forecast area, which is considerably higher
than NBM guidance. Mixing down 800mb temps yields expected
maxtemps Monday ranging from around 50F over the NW Mtns, to the
low 60s across the Lower Susq Valley.
Low level instability under the upper trough over the Eastern Grt
Lks should result in building clouds and scattered rain/snow
showers over the NW Mtns Monday PM into early Tue morning.
Upper level troughing will remain over PA Tuesday. However,
large scale subsidence behind an exiting shortwave should result
in fair and seasonably cool conditions. A clipper low is
progged to track south of PA Tuesday PM, which may bring a bit
of light precipitation to the area, mainly across the south.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface ridging and an associated low-pwat airmass building into
PA should support fair weather Wed night and Thursday. Light
wind, mostly clear skies and the dry air could result in a cold
Wed night, especially over the Laurel Highlands, where the
progged pressure gradient is weakest.
Most guidance tracks a moisture-starved shortwave north of the
region Thursday night, accompanied by the approach of a dying
cold front. While the best forcing passes north of PA, a few
light rain or snow showers appear possible north of I-80 Thu
night.
All medium range guidance indicates the upper trough will be
replaced by a building ridge along the East Coast late this
week, supporting a trend toward warmer weather late week into
next weekend. However, there is plenty of uncertainty regarding
how far the dying cold front gets Friday.
Some guidance indicates this boundary limps into Northern PA
Friday, then lifts north of the border for the weekend. In this
scenario, mostly sunny skies and 850mb temps of 10-12C south of
the front could support widespread highs in the 70s. Other
guidance indicates the front stalls out south of PA next
weekend, resulting in a much cooler and potentially rainy
scenario, with an easterly flow off of the Atlantic and
potential overrunning ahead of approaching low pressure over the
Midwest. The current weekend forecast reflects a middle ground
compromise between these solutions in regards to temps and POPs.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clouds will gradually thicken this evening with MVFR ceilings
first developing at BFD and JST in the 03Z-05Z timeframe as
light precipitation moves in. The 00Z TAF package has gradually
shifted forward onset timing +1 hour due to moisture increasing
in the lower levels; however, it remains fairly dry as of recent
observations. Current radar as of 0Z Monday does outline light
returns across western Pennsylvania; however, returns are likely
not reaching the ground due to dry air. Precipitation and lower
ceilings are generally expected to reach southeastern sites
(MDT/LNS) by 09Z, with recent guidance indicating chances of
showers ahead of this timeframe with minimal restrictions
expected. Precipitation will fall in the form of rain across
much of the area, though snow could mix in north of I-80 (BFD),
potentially dropping visibilities towards IFR restrictions with
lower (~20-30%) confidence in IFR prevailing.
HREF continues to highlight ceilings lowering to IFR at
IPT/MDT/LNS as Atlantic moisture is advected into the region via
southeasterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Recent
RAP RH cross-sections have slowly inched this way, matching
GLAMP/HREF guidance so increased confidence (~70% occurrence,
~50% timing) on IFR ceilings prevailing through 14Z Monday. A
period of LLWS is expected tonight at BFD/JST as winds at 2000ft
increase to 40-50 knots ahead of the cold front. LLWS is more
borderline at other sites; however, have outlined AOO/MDT/LNS
with LLWS as winds show some potential of winds right around
2000ft AGL; however, winds could shift slightly higher and
minimize LLWS concerns.
VFR conditions return area-wide Monday morning behind the
front, generally after 13-14Z across the western airfields
(BFD/JST/AOO/UNV) with low-level ceilings lingering until ~16Z
Monday based on consensus of GLAMP/RAP/HREF model guidance. Some
potential will remain for lower ceilings at BFD after 20Z with
scattered rain showers possible under westerly flow; however,
restrictions seem like a lower confidence solution at this time.
Wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots are expected during the morning
and into the afternoon.
Outlook...
Tue...Restrictions possible especially N/W with slight chc for
lingering rain and snow showers.
Wed...Restrictions possible especially N/W with slight chc of
rain and snow showers.
Thu...VFR with mainly dry conditions.
Fri...A few -SHRA possible west of UNV.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Martin
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Bauco
AVIATION...Bauco/NPB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
855 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Much more seasonal temperatures today as afternoon highs will
be in the low to mid 60s.
- Warming trend commences Monday, with Thursday and Friday
expected to be the warmest of the week.
- Little to no opportunities for precipitation exist through
Friday, although there is some hope for our eastern zones.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
The current forecast remains on track with highs in the 70s on
Monday. Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated west
of the Highway 83.
As of early this evening, high pressure is centered over
southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, while an
upper level trough extends from Iowa into northeast New Mexico.
Models moves this surface high southeast into Oklahoma
overnight, as a weak surface boundary over eastern Colorado
advances eastward across western Kansas. Meanwhile, the upper
trough will shift through the Central Plains. As this upper wave
passes...downslope flow and warming 850mb temperatures will
improve across southwest Kansas. SREF mean 850mb temperatures
indicated a 6C increase between 00z Monday and 00z Tuesday,
aligning well with the forecasted highs in the 70s.
West of Highway 83 on Monday, afternoon relative humidity values
are expected to drop to 15-20% as dry gusty west northwest
downslope winds develop. These gusty winds will decrease during
the afternoon and based on the latest short term models there is
a (4060% probability after 2 PM Monday) that wind gusts in this
area will be >20 mph. These conditions Monday afternoon will
result in elevated fire weather risk in these locations. Outdoor
burning is discouraged. East of Highway 83 slightly stronger
northwest winds are forecast as temperatures warm into the low
to mid 70s. Afternoon relative humidity in these locations will
range from 20-25%.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Midday water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
reveal a strong shortwave trough advancing eastward into the
upper Midwest amidst broader, weak longwave troughing across the
CONUS. At the surface, weak surface high pressure is building
into the central plains behind this morning`s cold front, and
the ongoing strong northerly winds will gradually diminish
through the afternoon as a result. Cold advection on the back of
the strong north winds has ushered in much more seasonal
temperatures, and afternoon highs will be close to normal in the
low to mid 60s. Overnight tonight, winds will decrease to light
and variable as the boundary layer decouples, and combine with
clear skies to facilitate strong radiational cooling supporting
Monday morning lows in the 30s.
Daytime Monday, short range ensembles are in agreement the
synoptic pattern will amplify as upper level ridging builds
over the western CONUS behind a longwave trough east of the
Rockies. This evolution generally signals a warming trend for
southwest KS, and that is indeed what guidance suggests as
850-mb temperatures are progged to increase into the 12-17
degrees C range which will translate to afternoon highs reaching
the low to mid 70s for most locations. The only exception
appears to be the Red Hills where temperatures will approach 80.
Tuesday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles
indicate the upper level ridging out west will take its sweet
time propagating eastward, and slowly flattening in the
process. In response, temperatures will not change appreciably
Tuesday and Wednesday. However, Thursday and Friday will be much
warmer as the upper level ridge axis moves overhead, with
afternoon highs in the 80s. This pattern also promotes generally
dry conditions, and this is reflected in NBM probability of QPF
> 0.01" at 5% or less for much of the area through Friday. The
only hope for any precipitation will exist on Thursday along
and east of US-183 as NBM probability of QPF > 0.01" increases
to near 25%.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
At 22z today an area of high pressure at the surface was
located over southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles.
Short term models move this high southeast into Oklahoma
overnight. Meanwhile a weak surface boundary over eastern
Colorado will move eastward across western Kansas as an upper
level trough crosses the Central Plains. Winds at less than
10knots overnight winds will become west northwest at 10 knots
or less between 09z and 15z Monday, increasing to 15 to near 20
knots between 15z and 18z. VFR conditions are expected, but VFR
ceilings between 6,000 and 12,000 feet AGL may occur ahead of
the upper wave from 06z to 15z Monday.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burgert
DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
522 PM MDT Sun Mar 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near critical to locally critical fire weather continues
through the rest of the afternoon. Another round of near
critical fire weather Monday afternoon along and north of
Highway 34.
- Very low chance (5-10%) of more gusty to strong wind potential
(around 50 mph) with sprinkles/virga this afternoon and
Monday afternoon.
- Above normal temperatures are expected to return this week
with record highs possible temperatures Thursday and Friday,
potentially approaching monthly record highs.
- An active pattern is expected next weekend, including the
potential for rain and storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sun Mar 23 2025
A relatively cooler day in wake of last night`s cold front. As
anticipated the stronger winds have moved east of the area this
morning leaving wind gusts of 25-30 mph favoring eastern and
northern counties for the rest of the afternoon. Still can`t
rule out an hour or two of locally critical fire weather
conditions but the threat for 3+ hours of critical conditions is
less than 5%. Late this afternoon and into the evening am
starting to see some evidence of a subtle shortwave within the
developing northwest flow. Both RAP and NAM are showing an
increase in mid level moisture starting around the 22Z time
frame into Yuma county which again may bring some virga or at
best sprinkles/light showers to portions of that county with the
potential spreading east overnight. The overall conditions
don`t look as good as yesterday with lower lapse rates of 7-7.5
c/km and no signals of any MUCAPE. There is however still
Corfidi downshear vectors around 70 knots and inverted v
soundings so think that some sporadic wind gusts of 40-50 mph
are possible with decaying showers/virga. Due to the weaker
signals and not overly impressive atmospheric conditions have
opted to include silent pops at this time.
Tonight, will see a surface trough move across the area leading to a
wind shift to the southwest. This wind shift will keep the area in a
climatological favored wind direction to keep temperatures from
falling to much so have nudged temperatures up a little bit
across the entire area generally in the low to mid 30s. If winds
were a little stronger I would have increased even more due to
the continued mixing, but with winds around 5-10 mph currently
forecast that does still potentially may lead to some locally
colder temperatures than forecast.
Monday, will see an amplifying ridge across the western CONUS. Did
nudge temperatures up a little bit as this looks to advect in warmer
temperatures from upstream as highs are currently forecast in the
70s area wide. A strengthening 850mb jet just ahead of a subtle
700mb shortwave is forecast to bring the potential for 30-35
mph winds to northern portions of the area. At this time,
despite the warmer temperatures RH values are forecast to
remain in the low 20s which will keep the fire weather potential
somewhat at bay but with the the prolonged breezy to gusty wind
pattern we have been in the past few days some fuels have more
than likely dried out again which does put the threat for fire
starts a little more elevated. There is actually a little bit of
moisture advection from the NW being brought into the area
which further increases my confidence that critical fire weather
will not be an issue for Monday. With the moisture advection
and the subtle 700mb shortwave there is again the potential for
some more shower development across the northern area. The
signal is a little bit stronger than today`s set up and with the
moisture there may be a little better chance of rainfall
reaching the surface. Inverted v soundings and very high
downshear Corfidi vectors remain in place which again may lead
to some gusty to strong wind potential with the showers. Again
will be introducing silent pops into the forecast as the overall
signal is not as strong as what was seen and occurred on
Saturday afternoon but will need to be something to keep an eye
on.
Tuesday is forecast to be a similar pattern to Monday however with a
slight eastward trend of the western ridge promoting drier air
in the mid levels. This is forecast to lead to a more quiet day
with lighter winds around 10-15 mph gusting to around 20 mph
perhaps a little higher if enough mixing up into the 700mb range
where a 30 knot jet remains and high temperatures again in the
70s. Overall not much to talk about for Tuesday at this time
which will be a nice change of pace.
Wednesday is then forecast to see some moisture advection return to
the area during the day as a surface trough moves through the
area allowing winds to become more southerly and some hints at a
potentially developing system across the western CONUS. High
temperatures are again forecast in the 70s across the area.
There are some signals at a potential shortwave moving off of
the Rockies during the afternoon which if timing can align just
right would interact with the ongoing moisture advection that
may lead to some shower and thunderstorm potential. NAM
soundings would support a strong to perhaps marginal severe
threat assuming that atmospheric profile is correct with hail up
to quarter size possible given near 30 knots of shear 800-1000
j/kg of MUCAPE and unstable lapse rates. At this time, the
threat looks to be conditional and rather low end so will not
include in the forecast at this time but it may be a potential
target of opportunity to keep an eye on over the next few shifts
especially if the timing of the all features lines up.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Thursday...during the morning hours, there will be a chance for some
stratus clouds and fog generally east of Highway 27 due to a
saturated boundary layer moving in from the southeast. There is also
some weak elevated instability through the afternoon but with little
to no moisture available from 850-500mb, no precipitation is
expected. Overnight, dry weather remains in the forecast. High
temperatures rise into the upper 70s to middle 80s with record/near
record highs possible. Low temperatures will be above normal for
late March in the middle 40s to middle 50s.
Friday...GFS/ECMWF ensemble forecasts show the forecast area under
southwest flow aloft. GFS/GFS ensemble also show breezy southerly
winds developing during the day with a potential dryline generally
in the Highway 27 to Highway 25 range. There is some surface based
instability, mainly along/east of the dryline and there is (per GFS
model) increasing 700-500mb moisture moving in from the northwest.
This scenario may support later forecasts introducing some
shower/thunderstorm chances to the forecast. Overnight, GFS showing
some weak elevated instability with modestly unstable 700-500mb
lapse rates. This would support NBM forecasts of 20%-40% chances for
rain showers generally along/north of Interstate 70 as a cold front
moves through with better mid level moisture moving overhead from
the southwest. Given some weak instability, a few thunderstorms
possible. High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 70s to
lower 80s with low temperatures in the 40 to 50 degree range.
Saturday...it looks to be quite a bit cooler compared to Friday but
still above normal for late March with high temperatures in the
upper 50s to lower 70s. This is in response to a cold frontal
passage earlier in the morning. This cold front will also produce
some breezy to perhaps windy conditions with winds gusting up to 40
mph. There appears to be an approaching upper trough axis that when
combined with sufficient post frontal low level moisture, support
NBM chances for showers in the 20%-50% range, highest north of I-70.
Overnight, rain shower chances continue in the 20%-40% range as the
quick moving upper trough moves through. With low temperatures
forecast to be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, we`ll need to watch
for the possibility of some light snow.
Sunday...GFS/ECMWF/GEFS models show broad upper level ridging
approaching from the west. There is currently a 20% chance for light
rain showers mainly along/north of Interstate 70 during the day,
likely related to the favorable moisture setup on the backside of
the exiting upper trough. High temperatures are forecast to be in
the middle 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 518 PM MDT Sun Mar 23 2025
VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Breezy winds will quickly
become light by or shortly after 0z. Light winds will become
more from the southwest then west by 12z. After 15z northwest
winds will be breezy to windy, with the stronger winds expected
for KMCK.
Meanwhile, confidence is quite low for downburst winds to occur
at either site with any weak shower that may move through over
the next two hours.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...JTL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
This new week looks to be bracketed by a couple opportunities for
showers and storms. The first will come from the northwest on an
incoming front, then at the end of the week, Thursday into Friday,
a slug of rain looks to move in from the southwest. Here are some
of the high notes of today`s forecast:
- Confidence is growing in a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms moving into the area tonight after 10 PM. Though
this line will be gradually weakening, there is a slight risk of
severe weather (threat level 2 of 5) north of
Brenham/Huntsville/Onalaska, and a marginal risk of severe
weather (threat level 1 of 5) south of there to roughly the
northern border of Harris County. Large hail is the primary
hazard of concern, and damaging wind gusts are a secondary
hazard.
- Expect little to no cooler air behind the front, and highs for
most of the area on Tuesday and Wednesday look to rise up into
the upper 80s, while some isolated hot spots look to snag a 90
degree high.
- The next episode of showers and storms comes Thursday into
Friday. Locally heavy rain appears to be possible with this
batch of rain, and there is a marginal risk of excessive rain
(threat level 1 of 4) focused on the overnight hours of Thursday
into early Friday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Cloud bases are finally rising, and some cracks in the morning
overcast are beginning to let some more sun in, allowing
temperatures to begin to creep just over 80 degrees across
Southeast Texas this afternoon. At the coast, high moisture and
subtly rising air off the Gulf is fueling a number of quick-
moving, light showers, including right here at the office in
League City!
What we have not seen is a more significant breaking of the cap in
place over the area, keeping afternoon activity under wraps
outside of those coastal streamers. This is not really a
surprise; though we`d advertised an outside chance at an isolated
shower or even a thunderstorm this afternoon, the better odds have
been, and now increasingly appear to be on a line of storms
developing along an incoming front.
Yesterday, I noted that the deterministic HRRR was dead along
this front as it moved through Southeast Texas, with virtually no
rain, much less any storms. Yet at the same time, ensemble
environmental data suggested that the cap was strong but beatable,
and a broken line of storms with a lower-end, conditional severe
threat up near the northern border of our forecast area. Well, lo
and behold, HRRR runs have begun to indicate more activity along
the front as it enters our area, and it is beginning to more
resemble the conceptual model we had yesterday! Indeed, if
anything, the cap looks to erode even more than expected well
inland, and we could have a decently stout line on our doorstop
just before midnight.
In keeping with this, the most recent SPC update to their Day 1
severe outlook extends a narrow corridor of the slight risk right
along our northern border. Places like Caldwell, Bryan/College
Station, Madisonville, and Crockett are in this strip. Places like
Brenham, Huntsville, Livingston, and Conroe are in a marginal risk
area just south of it. While the situation does increase
confidence in this smattering of storms, we do also see the trend
continuing of the cap holding stronger closer to the coast. So
expect this line to be weakening through the overnight hours, and
by the time if pushes into the Houston metro after midnight, it
will be fizzling out.
The front looks to reach the coast a little after dawn, and may
not make it much farther than that before it stalls and washes
out. Onshore flow than begins to re-establish itself, and by late
Monday evening, we`re expecting to be back to southeasterly winds
across Southeast Texas. With only 7-24 hours without onshore
winds, it should be no surprise that the northernmost reaches of
our area are the only ones to see dewpoints fall below 60 degrees,
and even they`ll be back into the 60s Tuesday morning. As a
result, there will be no real cooling off behind the front. Near
the coast, there just simply won`t be any cooling off at all, with
Monday night lows ranging from the mid 50s up north to the
middle/upper 60s at the Gulf. This sets us up for a very warm
day Tuesday when full sun comes back, and highs in the upper 80s
for all but a narrow strip along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
The synoptic pattern, with high pressure to our E/SE, will favor a
warm but otherwise inactive start to the extended period. Steady
onshore flow should provide us with a warm and humid day on Tuesday,
with diminishing cloud cover contributing to highs in the upper 80s
for most inland locations and the lower 80s closer to the coast. Dew
points will prove for sticky conditions, but won`t quite be high
enough yet to produce elevated heat index values that would be a
cause for significant heat risk concern. Still, this will be one of
the warmest days so far this year and with this being the beginning
of the warmer season for SE TX it may be worth taking some heat
precautions if spending time outdoors in the afternoon. Another warm
and humid day is expected on Wednesday as highs reach the mid 80s,
but increasing low-level cloud cover will prevent temperatures from
reaching as high as seen on Tuesday. Look for overnight lows to sit
in the 60s through Wednesday night.
Our next chance at significant rainfall will begin to develop on
Thursday as an amplified midlevel trough swings into the Four
Corners region. With deep moisture in place across the area (PW of
around 1.5 in), the approaching trough should provide ample lift to
initiate widespread showers and storms across the area that will
prevail overnight on Thursday and throughout the day on Friday.
Latest global models have indicated a broad swath of moderate
rainfall impacting the area, with total rainfall amounts through
Friday of around 2 inches. WPC maintains a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall, which will be mitigated by relatively dry soils
in place. However, with little indication as to how the mesoscale
setup of the event will play out, some locally higher amounts cannot
be ruled out. Rainfall should taper off on Saturday as the trough
ejects eastward, with warm and humid conditions returning to the
forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
The main focus tonight will be the returning of low ceilings and
increasing chances of showers and storms ahead/along of an
approaching FROPA. Light off/on showers can be expected early this
evening before a broken line of storms moves in. Continued with
TEMPO and PROB30 at most terminals; however, confidence in timing
and occurrence is still moderate due to model inconsistencies. As
of now, the best window for TSRA will be between 03-06Z across our
northern terminals and 05-09Z across our southern/coastal
terminals, including IAH. IFR to LIFR conditions due to low clouds
and fog can be expected after the front, slowly improving to MVFR
after 12-15Z and VFR by the afternoon. Winds will generally
remain from the SSE to SSW ahead of the front, transitioning to
the NNE and/or light and variable after the frontal passage.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Steady onshore flow, along with the potential for light showers,
will prevail overnight ahead of an approaching cold front overnight.
Some patchy fog may also be possible overnight as the boundary
approaches. As the front reaches the coast early Monday morning,
scattered showers and storms will accompany its passage along with a
brief shift to easterly winds. Onshore flow returns by late Monday,
with wind speeds approaching caution/potentially advisory thresholds
on Thursday as out next storm system moves into the area. Widespread
rainfall is expected between from Thursday and through Friday, with
wave heights reaching 5-7 feet offshore.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 60 83 62 88 / 60 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 66 83 63 88 / 40 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 74 64 79 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 PM CDT this evening
for GMZ330-335.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Cady
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
730 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A low pressure system crosses the area tonight, bringing a
round of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
- Near-normal temperatures are expected for much of the work week,
but a significant warming trend is expected by next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 430 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2025
Late this afternoon, a shortwave ridge has shifted east of the
area from the Carolinas to the upper OH Valley to eastern Great
Lakes region while another ridge extended from the eastern Pacific
into parts of the southwestern Conus. In between, the axis of an
upper trough extended from Canada into parts of the Northern
Plains/Upper MS Valley south into the Central Conus to the
vicinity of the Ozarks to the Arklatex vicinity. A lead shortwave
was moving from the mid MS Valley into the Lower OH Valley and TN
Valley. At the surface, an area of low pressure was near the
confluence of the OH and MS Rivers with a frontal zone east
northeast across the Commonwealth and across northern sections of
the CWA just south of the Interstate 64 corridor and then on east
across the Appalachians to the Carolinas, while another area of
low pressure was over the Upper MS Valley and nearing the western
Great Lakes region with its associated cold front south to near
the first area of low pressure and into the mid MS Valley to
eastern OK. After a very dry start to the day, especially in the
east and southeast, moisture has been gradually increasing from
west to east as the afternoon progresses with dewpoints trending
into the 30s to low or mid 40s. A few dewpoints in the upper 20s
lingered near the WV border at this time. PW has gradually climbed
to near the 0.5 inches in Pike County to 0.8 to 0.85 in the more
western and northwestern locations with rain reaching the ground.
With a bit of an inverted V profile, winds have been a bit gusty
as the showers arrive over the southern half of the area, into the
25 to 40 mph range.
Moisture will continue to increase into the evening hours as the
initial shortwave as well as the main 500 mb trough axis
approaches with PW per the 12Z HREF Mean reaching into the 0.9 to
1.1 inch range. The two frontal zones should more or less merge
upstream of the area over the next few hours with the primary sfc
low tracking into the Great Lakes and the boundary lifting north
of the CWA as a warm front this evening. The trailing cold front
meanwhile will work into the Commonwealth. The initial shortwave
departs to the northeast this evening while the main 500 mb trough
axis approaches from the west. The cold front should near eastern
KY toward midnight and move southeast of the area through dawn
sweeping deeper moisture to the south and west while the 500 mb
trough axis continues to approach. The 500 mb trough axis should
move only slowly east and reach eastern KY on Monday evening and
then remain in relatively the same location as additional
shortwaves move into the trough after rounding the upper ridging
that builds into the western Conus. At the surface a ridge of high
pressure will build from AR and the Southern Plains into the TN
and OH Valley on Monday and then into eastern KY for Monday night.
Through this evening, enough moisture may advect into the
southwestern portions of the area for MLCAPE to climb toward or in
excess of 100 J/kg near the Lake Cumberland area. MUCAPE values
per the RAP may reach 100 to 200 J/kg briefly this evening across
the western half of the CWA. Some slight chances for thunder
continue to be included in these areas. Any thunderstorms or
showers will bring some gusty winds, perhaps to near the 40 mph in
a few spots per several HRRR runs as they pass. Given the showery
nature of the precipitation tonight as the cold front approaches,
rainfall amounts should be variable as depicted in the convective
allowing models and hinted at in 12Z HREF LPMM QPF. Some locations
immediately downwind of Pine Mountain from Perry County to
Letcher county an perhaps into Pike County may not get as much as
a quarter of an inch while some locations that pick up heavier
showers or a storm or two may get three quarters of an inch or
more. Some local minimums in rainfall area likely in between where
the stronger showers and any storms pass. Shower chances diminish
as the boundary moves across the region during the overnight
hours with a decrease in clouds late into Monday morning.
With the sfc high across the area, a general minimum in cloud
cover is anticipated on Monday evening and may allow for the
eastern valleys in particular to decouple and drop off toward the
mid and upper 30s before clouds increase late ahead of the next
approaching shortwave. Moisture will increase again late on Monday
night and showers may encroach on eastern KY, especially west of
a Sandy Hook to Jackson to London to Monticello line.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2025
The period begins with the cyclonic flow setup across the eastern
half the CONUS on Tuesday. A mid-level wave will move through the
flow and provide a little mid-level omega. This will be enough lift
for some showers to develop across the region and mainly this would
be north and east of the Hal Rogers and highway 80 regions. The
issue is most of the ensembles and deterministic solutions suggest
PWATs will struggle to climb to around 0.5 inches. Especially areas
north of the Hal Rogers which is where the better lift will reside.
There remains a little uncertainty on the exacts in the synoptic
scale pattern for Tuesday night into Wednesday in the ensembles and
deterministic. However, given the west to northwest flow would be
reasonable to see at least some orographically lifted showers
Wednesday. Overall we are looking at chance PoPs in the 20-30
percent chance range and once again this will be mainly along and
northeast of the Hal Rogers and Highway 80. Overall both Tuesday and
Wednesday will be near to slight below normal afternoon highs with
values in the upper 50s to near 60.
Wednesday night, there is decent agreement that surface high
pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley and skies will clear.
Given the slightly diurnally limited day Wednesday and clearing
skies overnight lows Wednesday will be the upper 20s to lower 30s in
the valleys and low to mid 30s on the ridges. This will lead to at
least some frost potential Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Surface high pressure will move off to the east by the end of the
week. This will lead to return flow out of the south and eventually
a warm front. Overall weather will be dry Thursday and highs will
creep back up above normal into the lower 60s. The warm front
lifting northward Thursday night into Friday could spark a few rain
showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder. We get into the warm sector
by next weekend and this will lead to mostly dry weather Friday
night into Saturday. That said, afternoon highs on Saturday will top
out near 80s degrees. Then a stronger storm system starts to show up
by the end of the weekend. However, the ensembles and deterministic
guidance also diverge on the synoptic pattern by this time, with
spacial and temporal differences. Overall however it does look like
a cold front will approach the Ohio Valley by Sunday. This would
lead to a better chance of showers and thunderstorms to end the
period. It is too early to expect much predictability severe weather
wise, but areas west of I-75 have the greatest chance (at around 30
percent) of seeing around 500 J/kg and bulk shear greater than 30
knots. This will have to be monitored over the next week to see how
this system develops synoptically.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2025
Terminals are VFR with this TAF issuance; however, increasing
shower activity is developing across the area and terminals are
forecast to fall into MVFR over the next couple of hours. Once in
MVFR, terminals will stay there through cold frontal passage
before gradually improving to VFR and staying VFR after
12Z/Monday. Also with the shower activity, south to southwesterly
winds sustained around 10 to 15 knots with gusts from 20 to 25
knots will persist through the rest of the evening before
slackening off overnight; however, those winds are expected to
increase out of the west toward 17Z/Monday with sustained winds
around 10 to 15 knots and gusts 20 to 25 knots.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...VORST
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
217 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain will sweep across the area this afternoon.
- Westerly winds will increase quickly along and behind a cold
front this evening with gusts of 40 to 50 mph.
- Chance (30-40%) for showers Tuesday into Tuesday night. A
little slushy/wet snow may mix in, but no impacts are
expected.
- Trending toward warmer through the end of the week with
increasing chances for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms
towards next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Through Monday:
A recent surface analysis revealed a 1000mb surface low
centered along the Minnesota and Wisconsin borders, north of a
secondary area of low pressure developing over far northeastern
Iowa. Both lows are sitting atop a cold front, which stretches
through Central Iowa and north-central Missouri. A solid band of
rain is currently crossing the Mississippi River ahead of the
cold front and along the nose of strong "slabwise" DCVA
associated with the parent upper-level trough approaching the
Lower Great Lakes.
Through the afternoon, the solid band of rain ahead of the cold
front will sweep across our area leading to a 2 to 4 hour period
of steady rain areawide. Right behind the back edge of the slug
of rain, a narrow ribbon of 100-150 J/kg of 0-3km CAPE ahead of
the cold front will encourage a similarly-shaped narrow band of
low-topped showers. With 925mb flow poised to rapidly increase
right behind the front, it won`t take much for a shower to
efficiently mix a 45 to locally 55 mph wind gust particularly
south of I-80 where low-level lapse rates will be modestly
steeper.
This evening, westerly wind gusts will rapidly increase as cold-
air advection (which encourages sinking air) works in tandem
with the tightening low-level pressure gradient (along the
backside of the secondary low lifting toward Lake Michigan).
With RAP 925mb (850mb) flow poised to rocket toward 45kt (50kt)
after 00Z/7 PM across our entire area, as well as several
observations of 45 mph wind gusts across southern Iowa behind
the front (further south and earlier than previously
forecasted), felt the course of least regret was to expand the
inherited Wind Advisory initially just along and north of I-80
to cover our entire area. The peak in the wind gusts of 45 to
locally 55 mph looks to be from 7 PM to 11 PM, after which gusts
should only gradually ease into the 35 to 45 mph range through
the remainder of the overnight hours (the surface low will stall
in northern Lower Michigan overnight). Where wind gusts are
strongest, a few downed tree limbs and even a localized power
outage may result.
Tomorrow, the surface low will slowly meander into southern
Ontario. With our area remaining within the packed low-level
pressure gradient behind the low, west to northwest winds will
remain blustery tomorrow with frequent gusts of 35 to 40 mph.
When combined with morning temperatures near the freezing mark,
wind chills at daybreak will be in the upper teens to lower 20s
(brrr!). Gradually scattering stratus should allow for an
opportunity to see the sun before the day is over and help boost
afternoon highs into the mid 40s (lakeside) to around 50
(central Illinois).
Borchardt
Monday Night through Sunday:
A low to mid-level baroclinic zone will be oriented from across
central Iowa through downstate/central Illinois in the wake of
Monday`s departing storm system. This thermal gradient looks to
remain relatively quasistationary into Tuesday as a series of
sheared and lower-amplitude disturbances shuttle southeast along
it. While some modest north/south placement differences exist
in the medium range guidance, some signal exists for attendant
f-gen forcing to squeeze out a narrow axis of precipitation on
the cold side of the baroclinic zone.
It`s still difficult to say if that will occur over our forecast
area or off to the south, but the ensemble signal continues to
justify chance PoPs across much of the forecast area on Tuesday.
Thermal profiles currently look like they`d support
predominantly a cold rain, although the presence of stronger
ascent and associated dynamic cooling could end up supporting a
changeover/mix to a wet and slushy snow in spots. Additionally,
skies could remain fairly clear Monday evening, allowing
temperatures to drop swiftly with dewpoint still in the mid 20s.
For now, have just added a slight chance of a little snow for
now. Even if heavier snow rates were to materialize, surface
temperatures still look like they`d relegate any slushy
accumulations to grassy and elevated surfaces.
Precipitation chances (showers) will continue through Tuesday
afternoon and into the evening as another fast-moving wave
arrives. High pressure then looks set to briefly build overhead
on Wednesday yielding near seasonable temperatures with just
some northwesterly breezes and diurnally-building cumulus.
Intensifying low-level south to southwesterly flow ahead of a
lower amplitude (but robust) shortwave traversing the Trans-
Pecos Region will encourage the next bout of warm advection
across the central CONUS on Thursday. At the same time, broad
surface troughing will develop across the High Plains,
facilitating sharpening boundaries to our south and west. The
aforementioned burgeoning warm advection may foster the
development of scattered showers and even some elevated
thunderstorms Thursday evening into Friday morning as the
eastern fringes of an expansive EML begin to surge eastward.
A notable, negatively-tilting shortwave is forecast to eject out
across the plains during the Friday - Saturday timeframe,
although sizable timing, intensity, and placement differences
exist across the guidance suite. Regardless, the signal for
another storm system developing in the region is high into the
upcoming weekend, along with a commensurate increase in
precipitation chances.
Carlaw
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
VFR conditions at the Chicago terminals will deteriorate over
the next 2 to 3 hours, with IFR ceilings and low-end MVFR
visibility expected with a band of rain shifting across the area
by around 20Z. SSE winds gusting to around 25 knots through
mid-afternoon will slowly veer SSW as the band of rain moves
overhead. The main band of rain will exit to the east by 22-23Z,
but another corridor of low- topped convection (without TS) is
expected across the Chicago metro late this afternoon into early
evening. While the line of SHRA is expected to be scattered to
broken, the SHRA could produce brief gusts over 30 knots.
Shortly after the SHRA early this evening, west winds will gust
in excess of 40 knots for several hours before settling in the
30 to 35 knot range overnight into Monday morning. SCT to BKN
MVFR stratocumulus is expected during this time. Ceilings will
scatter and lift into VFR levels by Monday afternoon as WNW
gusts diminish to under 30 knots.
Kluber
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
A deepening low pressure system will move through the Upper
Great Lakes this evening and stall near the Mackinac Straits
tonight into Monday morning. The cold front of the system will
sweep across the region this evening, ushering in westerly gale
force winds to 45 kt. A storm force gust to 50 kt cannot be
ruled out, particularly on high platform observing platforms.
Gale force speeds/gusts will ease gradually tonight toward 35 kt
but persist through Monday afternoon. West-northwesterly winds
will then steadily diminish through Monday evening and may even
turn light northerly prior to sunset along portions of the
Indiana nearshore.
A Gale Warning is in effect for the nearshore waters from Winthrop
Harbor IL to Michigan City IN from 7 PM CDT this evening through
3 PM CDT on Monday.
NWS Chicago
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ003-ILZ004-
ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ019.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight CDT tonight
for ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-
ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108.
IN...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight CDT tonight
for INZ001-INZ002.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the IL
and IN nearshore waters.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM CDT Monday for the
IL and IN nearshore waters.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1024 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Cleared some of SVR watch #63 across the northern fridge of
previously included Counties and Parishes. We may end up adding
some time to the expiration time for a few LA Parishes, as the
HRRR finally clears our southern tier around 09Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 958 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
The cold front continues to make good progress into the ArkLaTex
stretching from Tyler to Longview and Marshall and is currently
knocking on the door in the SHV/BO metro area. The boundary has
cleared our south AR Counties with just light north winds at this
time. The line of thunderstorms, some severe, stretches from
Jacksonville TX to Tatum and then across southern Caddo and
Bossier Parishes with a big uptick intensity with those severe
storms along I-20 for Bienville and Lincoln and Union Parishes.
Lower 60 degree air temps are moving across our I-30 corridor and
displacing the muggy 70s. Dew points are falling into the 30s at
Mount Pleasant and DeQueen. No other changes to the overnight at
this time. /24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
A more dynamic weather pattern is expected to take control of the
ArkLaTex region through the upcoming week as a series of upper-
level shortwaves interact with a moist Gulf airmass and periodic
frontal boundaries. While we will initially be quiet for Tuesday,
it will transition to more active weather conditions by midweek
with showers, thunderstorms, and some low-end strong to severe
thunderstorms possible. Tuesday will start with high pressure to
our west and a large trough to our east, leaving us under
northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will be fairly warm on Tuesday
with highs ranging from the lower to mid 80s. Clouds begin to
increase heading into Tuesday night as a weak shortwave trough
begins to move in from the west. As we move into Wednesday
morning, this shortwave will nudge a subtle surface trough into
northeast Texas, allowing for the development of some showers and
thunderstorms. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid 70s to
lower 80s.
A rogue thunderstorms or two may linger into the early overnight
hours Wednesday night, but will quickly come to an end should
anything still be ongoing. Lows will range from the mid 50s to
around 60 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. The rest of the week
and into the weekend will continue to see unstable conditions with
chances of showers and thunderstorms from Thursday afternoon
through Saturday with temperatures remaining slightly above
seasonable normals. /33/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Mostly VFR conditions will continue through the 24/00Z TAF period.
Scattered convection has begun to develop across portions of Srn AR/N LA
and Deep E TX, along and ahead of a cold front that extends from a JDD, to
just S of an ATA to near ADF as of 2330Z. This convection will effect all
but the TXK terminal this evening, as the front continues to progress
SE through the region this evening/overnight. Brief MVFR cigs, reduced
vsbys, hail, and wind gusts in excess of 35 kts will be possible in/near
the convection, before they shift S of the LFK/MLU terminals by/shortly
after 06Z. 6-9kft cigs behind the front will also gradually scatter out
from NW to SE tonight, with cirrus cigs scattering out as well by/after
daybreak. WSW winds 5-10kts ahead of the front this evening, will become
NNE 4-8kts with the fropa. Winds will gradually veer more ESE 4-7kts
after 18Z. /15/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025
Spotter activation continues past midnight for an hour or few
along and south of I-20.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 54 78 56 87 / 70 0 0 0
MLU 55 74 53 84 / 90 0 0 0
DEQ 44 76 47 86 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 49 78 53 88 / 20 0 0 0
ELD 48 77 51 87 / 70 0 0 0
TYR 53 78 57 88 / 40 0 0 0
GGG 52 78 55 87 / 60 0 0 0
LFK 58 80 59 87 / 80 10 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...15