Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/22/25

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Charleston SC

 938 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the south will prevail through Saturday, with
a cold front then poised to push through the area Monday. High
pressure will then prevail through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Mid evening update: Per trends, just some minor tweaks made to
forecast low temps and hourly temps.

Smoke plumes continue to be seen by the KCLX radar, and there
had been several hours of smoke at KLHW, but with no reductions
in visibility. The HRRR Smoke Graphics do not show any
reductions in visibility through tonight. But some smoke can be
noticed in parts of the sky before the sun sets.

Tonight: A zonal flow will prevail aloft, as a distant upstream
short wave trough swings through the Upper Midwest and into the
Ohio Valley. Some weak PVA ahead of that short wave will brush
our northern zones overnight, but given how dry the air mass
is, it will generate no weather locally. At the surface, high
pressure centered in the northeast Gulf will expand east into
the Atlantic, while a Piedmont trough remains in place to our
west-northwest.

Winds quickly decouple this evening, and remain light or calm
through most of the night, until maybe recoupling late in some
areas, as winds at 925 mb increase to 15-25 kt. This supports a
fast drop in temperatures early on, before their decline slows
overnight, maybe even climbing a bit toward morning in places
north and northwest that start to feel the low level jet. Actual
lows with excellent radiational cooling for much of the night
will allow minimums to get down to the upper 30s and lower 40s
over the vast majority of the area. The Charleston-North
Charleston metro, the Savannah-Tybee region, along the immediate
shores of Lake Moultrie, and the barrier islands will be
several degrees warmer.

We included mention of patchy frost far inland from about 5 to 8
AM Saturday. Certainly not enough coverage for any Frost
Advisory. Most of that frost may just be on rooftops or parked
vehicles.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: Aloft, a zonal flow will prevail across the Southeast
United States with some troughing displaced across the Northeast
States and modest ridging well offshore across the Atlantic. At the
sfc, a dry front will make way toward the region late, likely
passing across the region overnight with little to no impact in
regards to precip potential. The main issue will be during the day,
with a dry downsloping wind (deep westerly flow), sunny conditions
and some compressional heating supporting temps warming into the mid
70s before a late afternoon sea breeze attempts to shift inland.
Breezy afternoon winds (15-25 mph gusts) are possible at times as
low-lvl mixing taps into 25-30 kt wind fields a few thousand feet
off the sfc at a time when RH values approach the low-mid 20s. A
fire weather risk will be present across much of the area as a
result and therefore a Fire Danger Statement is now in place for the
entire area for late morning through afternoon hours (see fire
weather section below).

Overnight hours will remain quiet with a subtle wind shift from west
to north-northwest during the night with fropa. However, winds will
remain light and/or go calm during the second half the night as
strong radiational cooling continues under clear skies during the
night. Low temps should dip into the low-mid 40s inland to upper 40s
to lower 50s near the coast.

Sunday: Another dry and sunny day is in store as sfc high pressure
becomes centered just south of the area under a zonal flow aloft.
light southerly flow will develop across the Southeast United
States, supporting sfc temps a few degrees warmer than the previous
day, generally in the mid-upper 70s, although onshore winds will
likely limit highs to the upper 60s/around 70 near the beaches. Dry
conditions persist through the night, but remain noticeably more
mild than the previous night ahead of a front. In general, lows
should range in the low-mid 50s inland to upper 50s/around 60 near
the coast.

Monday: A cold front is expected to approach the region during the
morning, eventually passing across the local area during the
afternoon. Instability and shear remain modest with fropa, but the
feature likely brings the highest precip potential during the week.
At this time, scattered to numerous showers remain in the forecast.
A slight chance of thunderstorms has also been introduced, mainly
across Southeast Georgia where an axis of instability is maximized
during afternoon into early evening hours. High temps should peak in
the low-mid 70s, warmest near the coast where clouds and precip
impact areas later in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Outside of a few lingering showers along and southeast of I-95
Monday night, should see largely dry conditions return to the region
by daybreak Tuesday. Upper level flow then turns quasi-zonal,
keeping conditions dry for the remainder of the extended period.
Temperatures during this time will remain near/slightly above
normal, as highs rise into the 70s and lows fall into 40s/50s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00Z
Sunday. Winds will become a bit gusty late in the TAF period as
mixing heights climb during the warming of the day.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail at
CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through the weekend. Brief flight restrictions
are possible at all terminals on Monday due to showers and/or
possibly thunderstorms occurring with a passing cold front. VFR
conditions return Monday night, then persist through the middle of
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
This evening and tonight: A 1022-1023 mb high centered offshore
of the Florida Panhandle, will expand eastward into the
vicinity of Bermuda overnight, as an inland trough persists from
Georgia to Virginia. The gradient is fairly slack early on, but
does increase a tad late, and as low level winds increase
somewhat, there will be an associated increase in winds at the
surface. We start out with S or SW winds generally no more than
about 10 kt, before they veer more SW and WSW late as land
breeze influences start to take hold. Speeds will climb about 5
or 10 kt in the ocean, but hold about the same in Charleston
Harbor. Seas will average 2-3 feet throughout.

Saturday through Monday: A weak front should shift across local
waters Saturday night with modest enhancement to low-lvl wind fields
occurring prior to its arrival potentially leading to a marginal
Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts across nearshore coastal
waters off the Charleston County Coast. Given the duration and
coverage of the event, have held off on any headline issuance.
Conditions are then expected to remain quiet across local waters
Sunday into early Monday with high pressure dominating the weather
pattern. However, a cold front is expected to shift across local
waters Monday afternoon with the potential of another round of wind
gusts near 25 kt across nearshore SC waters off the Charleston
County Coast. A Small Craft Advisory could eventually be needed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry westerly wind, sunny skies, and compressional heating well
ahead of a front approaching from the northwest late day, will
likely lead to relative humidity values dipping into the 20-25%
range while sfc winds gust as high as 15-25 mph during the
afternoon. These factors along with dry fuels will lead to an
enhanced fire danger, resulting in a Fire Danger Statement for the
entire area from 11 AM to 7 PM Saturday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Cleveland OH

 954 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front drops southeast across the area Saturday morning.
After brief high pressure Saturday night, low pressure tracks
into the northern Great Lakes on Sunday with an accompanying
cold front crossing the local area Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
930 pm update...
As we mentioned in the previous quick forecast check up earlier
this evening, we would take another look at the POPs for the
rest of Saturday morning through tomorrow evening. We also took
a look at the new 00z HRRR that just came in through Saturday
afternoon. The hourly POPs were lowered downward overall from
what was previous advertised as well as shorten up a little as
in length of time with a quicker decrease during the midday. We
have most of the POPs and precip chances ended by early to mid
afternoon. over the Snowbelt areas. But we are still thinking
there will be quick couple hours between 12z and 18z where we
could see some "bursty" rain showers, mixing with some graupel
or wet snow as the colder air rushes, especially aloft during
the late morning hours. We are not expecting the lake effect to
do much of anything as the 850 mb temps will be warmer than -10C
and that we will be a very short time window as well.

730 pm update...
For this early evening update, we made a few minor adjustments
to the hourly POPs from the 06z through 12z timeframe late
tonight into early Saturday morning. The previous POPs were a
touch aggressive and we adjusted them slightly lowers into the
slight to chance range (20% to 50%). Regarding the POPs after
12z through midday Saturday, we want to wait and get a quick
look at the latest 00z runs of the HRRR and 4km WRF in the next
hour or so before we make any other adjustments if needed later
for that timeframe. But some guidance 18z guidance was
indicating that the POPs we have after 12z may also be a little
aggressive. Again, we will have those updated if needed by 0130z
or 930 pm EDT here shortly. Otherwise, the rest of the near
term forecast through tomorrow night looks on track at this
time.

Previous discussion..
Water vapor imagery reveals a complex trough digging over the
central U.S., with one shortwave/vort max currently over eastern
NE and pushing east into IA. Another shortwave (with a strong
accompanying cold front and airmass change) is dropping
southeast into the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes. These
features will bring a brief period of unsettled weather on
Saturday, followed by another quick hit of seasonably chilly air
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.


Clouds will gradually thicken and lower overnight tonight, with
brisk southwest winds struggling to decouple and helping to keep
temperatures much milder than last night. Have lows ranging from
the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Both of the aforementioned shortwaves and strong cold front will
work across the area rather quickly Saturday morning, with high
pressure quickly building in from the west late Saturday into
Saturday night. There will be a few things to focus on for
precip potential/POPs late tonight through Saturday afternoon.
An initial wave of mid-level warm air advection/isentropic lift
will lift east-northeast across our area after midnight. Dry
low-levels and the rather weak nature of the lift makes it very
questionable if any measurable rain accompanies this feature
between about 12 AM and 5 AM tonight. There will be another push
of better lift (with more saturated low-levels) from west to
east after 4 or 5 AM with the lead shortwave coming east out of
the central U.S., with greater potential for scattered showers.
This will be quickly followed by the shortwave and strong cold
front dropping southeast out of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
after roughly 8 AM, with numerous to widespread showers likely
to accompany this feature, particularly from Sandusky-Mount
Gilead points east. Synoptic lift quickly exits to the east-
southeast Saturday afternoon, though lingering low-level
cyclonic flow and 850mb temperatures cratering to -10 to -13C
over Lake Erie could allow some lake enhanced precip to continue
through early Saturday evening before ridging and much drier
air really start pressing in. Dry weather and clearing skies are
then expected for the rest of Saturday night.

The forcing and moisture align best across Northeast OH and
Northwest PA on Saturday, with much lower confidence in precip
out west towards the I-75 corridor. Have categorical (80-100%)
POPs in from Lorain-Wooster points east, with likely (60-70%)
POPs as far west as Sandusky-Mt Gilead, dropping off to 30%
along I-75. QPF amounts are under 0.25" (and for a large
majority under 0.10"), highest across the higher terrain of
Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Precip will initially fall in the
form of rain, though strong cold air advection will allow it to
mix with/change to a bit of snow before ending across parts of
Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Not looking for more than a
slushy coating on non-paved surface at most. Mid-level lapse
rates steepen to around 8C/km Saturday morning as a -30C 500mb
cold pool moves overhead, which could allow for a little bit of
upright instability to develop. This could allow some showers
(especially along the cold front) to have a bit of a convective
component Saturday morning, perhaps producing a bit of graupel
or very small hail. Did not add thunder to the forecast, but a
stray rumble wouldn`t be the most shocking thing ever along or
just ahead of the cold front from extreme eastern OH into PA. A
brief push of wind gusts over 30 MPH is likely just behind the
cold front Saturday morning and early afternoon.

Morning highs on Saturday should reach the low to mid 40s, with
very strong cold air advection causing falling temperatures late
in the morning through the afternoon. Lows Saturday night should
get well into the 20s for much of the area, with a few 10s even
possible in the higher terrain east of I-79 in Northwest PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The next low pressure system with a digging upper low into the Great
Lakes arrives Sunday, looking more and more like it will have a warm
front and a very brief residence time in a  modest warm sector prior
to cold frontal passage. POPs reintroduced after 15Z over the far
southwestern zones over the CWA. Showers at first but in the far
eastern zones possibly a rain/snow mix at the onset, temperatures a
touch warmer Sunday than Saturday back towards the 50F mark in some
places, and then the trailing cold front tracks through 00Z Monday
into early Monday night. This will be another system making an
expeditious exit, but the trailing upper low through the Great Lakes
region will sling low level moisture back into the CWA from the
north with rain showers late Monday and transitioning to rain/snow
showers early Monday night. No accumulation expected, but
temperatures down to around freezing or just below.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deep 500mb trough now over the Great Lakes region. 700mb trough axis
tracks down into the Ohio Valley with weak cyclogenesis along with
the tail end of another weak cold front moving into Lake Erie from
the north. Bulk of the POPs from the feature to the south should
remain south of our CWA border, and not much moisture to work with
or low level f-gen from the cold front, so the slight chance POPs
are not expected to produce much Tuesday into Tuesday night if
anything at all. Chilly high pressure for the middle to the end of
the week before a Friday warm front arrives with perhaps some
warming into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The main message for potential weather impacts to aviation for
this TAF update will be a couple items to be aware of. Gusty
winds will increase tonight and tomorrow with a fast moving cold
front. There may some non-convective low level winds this
evening through the predawn hours of Saturday morning. The
potential of that non-thunderstorm LLWS is relatively marginal
and would generally be from 02z to 10z tonight due to a
strengthening low level jet and wind Field from this vigorous,
fast moving weather system.

VFR conditions are being observed across the region this evening
and will continue through most of the overnight. High and mid
level clouds are increasing and will slowly lower as the night
goes along. MVFR ceilings will eventually arrive for NWOH before
12z. The MVFR ceilings will continue to move in from west to
east across the rest of NEOH and NWPA around 12z or shortly
after as a fast moving cold front sweeps through northern Ohio
and NWPA. The MVFR ceilings will be around after daybreak Saturday
morning through midday with a gradual improvement to VFR
ceilings above 3000 feet by 18z for much of the area. MVFR may
lingering a little longer into the mid afternoon around the
Snowbelt areas of NEOH and NWPA through the mid afternoon or 21z
before the lake effect stratus deck starts to scattered out
during the late afternoon and towards the end of this TAF
period. Winds will start out from the south to southwesterly
tonight 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots overnight.
Winds will become westerly and northwesterly behind the cold
front early Saturday morning and continue through the end of the
period. Winds will remain 12 to 18 knots with gusts 25 to 30
knots likely during the day on Saturday. The winds will decrease
at the end of this 24 hours TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in widespread rain late Sunday into
Monday. Non-VFR is possible in lingering rain and/or snow
showers Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds increase to 15-25kts tonight, turning northwesterly
as a cold front comes through 15-25kts and a Small Craft Advisory
now in effect for much of Saturday.  Winds become variable Saturday
night, then southeasterly 10-15kts Sunday with another cold front
coming through  Sunday night. Wave heights less than 2ft early
Sunday will increase away from shore Sunday afternoon, then approach
Small Craft Advisory again Sunday night in the wake of the next cold
front with wave heights back to 3-5ft.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ144>147.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 9 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...77/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...77
MARINE...26




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Des Moines IA

 640 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for gusty winds in weak convection south and east
  late this afternoon and early evening

- No significant large scale systems through the period, but an
  active pattern nonetheless with precip chances every few days

- Increased rain chances Sat night into Sun with gusty west
  winds (gusts 45 mph possible) west Sun afternoon

- Seasonal temps into next week, but warming by the end of the
  next work week,

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Fairly typical late March weather will be in place through the
period with varied degrees of northwest flow aloft into next
week. An upper trough and noted PV anomaly was approaching the
Siouxland area this afternoon with high based convection
beginning to develop within the upper low cores steep mid level
lapse rates. Mid level kinematic forcing will continue to
enhance vertical motion through the afternoon ahead of the wave,
and once that forcing area exits the northwest IA snow pack
several hundred low CINH MLCAPEs will develop to the east with
weak convection maturing somewhat. Forecast soundings suggest
steep lapse rates through the entire column southeast. With
LFCs/LCLs both above the freezing level, small hail production
may be enhanced with sublimation cooling below the high bases
and enhancing gusty wind potential. 12Z HREF output shows
multiple model cores with winds >=30kts over southeast sections,
and recent HRRR runs have been consistent with 45-55kt gusts in
small clusters exiting our forecast area into eastern IA
through the early evening hours. Thus a few strong to briefly
severe storms will be possible, mainly due to the strong wind
potential.

Any precip should quickly exit eastern sections early this
evening as subsidence behind the upper trough advances. Skies
should clear with surface high pressure settling into the MO
Valley from the northern Plains. With the heart of the surface
ridge right over the snow pack, temperatures may plummet there
with light winds and clear skies. Have lowered min temps there,
lows into the teens north, but even cooler readings are
possible. Temperatures should rebound again tomorrow however
with return flow beginning and the current ND/MN cold front
advancing no farther south than a glancing blow into the Upper
MS Valley.

The next system of interest is currently off the Pacific NW and
is expected to reach the northern and central Plains late
Saturday. This system will be more mature with both
thermodynamic and kinematic contributions, but with insufficient
recovery time to get much in the way of moisture return,
limiting instability. Only token thunder may occur early Sunday
morning, and elevated rooted around 1km. Thus much of the precip
will likely be light rain Sat night, and lingering wrap around
light rain north into Sunday. The biggest sensible weather
reflection of the system will likely be strong gusty winds in
the trailing cyclonic flow with soundings noting the potential
for gusts 40+kts northwest by the afternoon.

The next warm section surge will re-introduce minor precip
chances Monday night into Tuesday, but more appreciable precip
chances may re-enter the forecast late in the next work week.
Deterministic solutions are in good agreement with upper level
ridging heading into Friday, but they diverge quite a bit with
the following system to end the week decreasing confidence. A
quick look at the 00Z grand ensemble cluster would lean in the
GEFS camp with a system and frontal introduction Fri night. CSU
and NSSL GEFS based and NCAR ECMWF based ML/AI pages all suggest
at least pseudo marginal risk severe weather probabilities
through this period so the thunder mention may need to be
increased in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Showers and spotty thunderstorms continue across the eastern
half of the state into the evening, and are expected to remain
over the next few hours, which may bring some gusty winds, brief
visibility reductions and lowered ceilings before moving
eastward. Cloud cover will decrease otherwise through the
evening, turning clear through the overnight and much of the
morning before clouds return Saturday afternoon. Northwest winds
will decrease this evening, shifting southeasterly through
Saturday morning before turning breezy once again through the
day, with gusts up to 20-25 knots after 21-00z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Small
AVIATION...Bury




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Huntsville AL

 1053 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

The area of high clouds that moved quickly across northern Alabama
and southern middle Tennessee earlier during the late afternoon
hours is currently moving through NE Tennessee. Clear skies are in
place across the area and winds have become calm.

Dry air can be seen in area observations with dewpoints in the
upper 20s to lower 30s in most locations. These dewpoints will
start to increase around 10 PM into Saturday morning along with
winds, as an upper level trough axis moves quickly east across
northern Tennessee and Kentucky. Though some thin scattered high
clouds could develop overnight, more significant cloud cover
should stay near the upper level trough axis well to our north.
Temperatures are currently in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees
currently. They should drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s over
the next few hours before winds begin picking up to an
intensifyinglow level jet ahead of the upper level trough axis.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Abundant sunshine is expected today and guidance warms 925 mb
temperatures into the 10 to 12 degree range. This could push highs
into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. Model soundings do show
some very dry air that could be reached as temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 60s residing between 850 and 700 mb. Thus, went
ahead and lowered afternoon dewpoints close to HRRR values into
the upper teens to lower 20s in the afternoon. Again KBDI values
are less than 300, but winds will be a bit stronger between 5 and
10 mph with gusts to around 15 mph.

Southerly low level winds pick up late tonight into Sunday morning
ahead of the next storm system to affect the area. Southerly low
level winds between 25 and 35 mph will continue into the day on
Sunday as a cold front pushes southeast into the Ohio valley into
western Tennessee and eastern Arkansas. Models show a fairly
strong cap (temperatures inversion) developing around 700 mb
during the afternoon hours over northern Alabama and southern
middle Tennessee. Forcing over the area ahead of this front
doesn`t really increase much until very late in the afternoon
close to 7 PM. Given the weak lift and strong cap in place, not
sure we will see any convection development until around and after
7 PM in NW Alabama. Much stronger forcing at 700 mb moves into NW
Alabama and southern middle Tennessee between 00Z and 03Z. Very
steep lapse rates are in place in guidance between 7 and 8.5
degrees. MUCAPE and SBCAPE is not quite as impressive as the last
few days in models. However, MUCAPE between 300 and 700 J/KG is
shown in some models still. Given the steep lapse rates and strong
forcing, couldn`t rule out some large hail around 1 inch in
diameter. However, it still looks like the main threat for severe
weather will be damaging winds from any severe thunderstorms,
possibly more between 8 PM and 1 AM. Not sure how much surface
based or elevated instability will linger past the overnight
hours. Overall confidence in severe storms is not as high in the
afternoon hours.

It does looks like heavy rainfall will expand eastward during the
evening into the overnight hours on Sunday, as forcing around 700
mb and just ahead of the main frontal boundary increases even
more. A good 1 to 2 inches of rainfall looks possible in some
areas, but again severe storms potential looks more marginal the
further southeast you go from NW AL and southern middle Tennessee.
A few lingering showers could hold on into the early morning
hours in southern DeKalb and Cullman counties, but should be very
light. Cooler air will briefly move into the area Monday. However,
this will be a glancing blow of colder air. Highs with abundant
sunshine should still climb into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.
Monday night looks the coolest with lows dropping into the lower
to mid 40s.

Highs on Tuesday should rebound a bit ahead of another approaching
cold front with a decent amount of sunshine expected. Highs
should reach the 70 to 75 degrees again. Cold air advection behind
this front will keep highs a bit colder on Wednesday, only
reaching the lower to mid 60s. Not many clouds are expected with
this front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Even colder air to settle into the area Wednesday night. Lows
should drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s. A more substantial
warming trend is expected towards the end of next week, as strong
upper level ridging builds over the southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast. Mid and high clouds
will move through this evening (all above 200agl). LLWS will
develop this evening ahead of an approaching weak cold front with
southwest winds at 020agl around 40kt. Winds will shift to the
northwest at 5-10kt by 13-14Z behind the weak cold front.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...17




Area Forecast Discussion...Updated

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 747 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A fast-moving frontal boundary will trigger a few gusty showers
  across central Illinois this evening. Guidance suggests a 40-60%
  chance of wind gusts greater than 40mph with the showers.

- A stronger storm system will spread rain back into the area
  Saturday night into Sunday. Storm total rainfall will generally
  range from 0.25 to 0.50...with amounts approaching 1 inch south
  of I-70.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

A cold front was pushing through far eastern IA and northeast MO at
00z, associated with a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
45-55 mph wind gusts have been common with the convection, and the
HRRR has been consistently showing similar gusts as the system
crosses central IL this evening, even as the overall coverage and
intensity of precip gradually decreases. This in large part will
be due to a very dry sub-cloud layer (inverted-v) noted on 00z ILX
sounding, favorable for evaporative cooling and increased velocity
of descending air parcels. So, a short period of strong/gusty
west-northwest winds can be expected for much of the area north of
I-70 this evening, primarily between about 830 pm to midnight,
from west to east across central IL. Will plan to handle this
activity with convective Special Weather Statements (SPS).

25

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front dropping southward out
of the Northern Plains...while a tightening pressure gradient
ahead of the boundary produces strong/gusty southerly winds across
central Illinois. Gusts have routinely been above 30mph with an
occasional report over 40mph, but have generally been slightly
lower than previously forecast. Breezy conditions will continue
through the remainder of the afternoon, with gusts temporarily
dropping to less than 30mph toward sunset. As the front pushes
into the area from the northwest, CAMs have been consistently
showing widely scattered convective development. Forecast
soundings indicate steep mid-level lapse rates, but only meager
instability with NAM and HRRR MUCAPE values of only 100-200J/kg.
Despite the lack of instability, think forcing along the front
combined with the steep lapse rates will be enough to trigger
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. While severe weather
is not expected, the showers may produce a period of gusty winds
as evidenced from a pronounced dry sub-cloud layer. HRRR is
showing a band of 45-50kt wind gusts associated with the showers,
but think this may be a bit overdone due to its known nocturnal
overmixing bias. Nonetheless think the showers will result in an
uptick in wind gusts to 40-45mph across the Illinois River Valley
after 02z/9pm, then further east toward I-55 by around 04z/11pm.
Once the showers pass and/or dissipate overnight, gusty W/NW winds
will persist through the remainder of the night as CAA brings
temperatures back down into the lower to middle 30s across much of
the area by dawn Saturday.  High pressure will build into the
Midwest on Saturday, providing dry weather, lighter winds, and
seasonable high temperatures in the lower to middle 50s.

Barnes

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

After the brief period of quiet weather on Saturday, the next
storm system embedded within the fast west-to-east zonal flow
pattern will quickly come into the picture Saturday night into
Sunday. Surface low pressure is progged to track well northwest of
Illinois across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with a
trailing cold front swinging into the KILX CWA Sunday afternoon.
While deep-layer wind shear will become quite strong (0-6km reaching
60-80kt), instability will once again be lacking (MLCAPEs only
200-400J/kg). A southern stream short-wave trough will provide
enhanced lift along the front and a better chance for widespread
convection further south from eastern Texas across Arkansas into
the Tennessee River Valley. Will need to keep an eye on the
northern extent of this enhanced activity, but think any
significant severe weather threat will remain south of central
Illinois. Storm total rainfall with this system will mostly be in
the 0.25 to 0.50 range, but may approach 1 inch south of I-70
where thunderstorms may be a bit more numerous.

Once the Sunday system departs, the zonal flow pattern will
provide rain chances every couple of days and near normal
temperatures through next week. At this time, it appears the best
rain chances will materialize Monday night into Tuesday...then
again Thursday into Friday. These periods will be fine-tuned with
later forecasts as the timing of individual waves within the fast
flow becomes better defined.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

A thin/broken line of showers and storms moving into eastern IA,
associated with a cold front, will track across the central IL
terminals this evening. Coverage is expected to be around 30-50%,
so added a TEMPO group for a narrow window of storms with gusty
winds up to 45 kt. Outside of storms, VFR conditions will prevail
for the remainder of the TAF period. Southwest winds gusting near
30 kt late this afternoon, will veer west with the approach of the
front, then northwest behind the front late this evening. 25+ kt
gusts will continue overnight then diminish toward sunrise with
10-14 kt northwest winds common into Sat afternoon.

25

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Jackson KY

 1021 PM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dry cold front will cross the area Saturday morning.

- Gusty winds, drying fuels, and humidity dropping below 30
  percent in most locations will result in an increased risk of
  wildfires on Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Another system crosses the area to end the weekend and should
  bring a round of showers and a few thunderstorms producing
  measurable rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2025

The forecast remains largely on track, with minor changes limited
to hourly temperature trends and Sky grids.

UPDATE Issued at 717 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2025

Minor update sent out to the grids for Sky cover. Otherwise, the
forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 440 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2025

Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge extended from near the
FL peninsula into the southeast and the Southern Appalachians to
eastern Great Lakes while a shortwave trough extended south from
Ontario to the upper MS Valley to the vicinity of the Ozarks to
Arklatex regions. West of that system an upper level ridge
extended across portions of the western Conus/Rockies with a
trough upstream of that entering the western Conus. At surface, An
area of low pressure was over the northern Great Lakes vicinity
with a wavy frontal zone extending back to the Southern
Appalachians while another frontal zone was just northwest of this
area extended from a surface low in the James Bay vicinity to the
upper MS valley to the Dakotas to Alberta. Meanwhile a surface
ridge of high pressure extended from the eastern Gulf into the
southeastern states/Southern Appalachians. Another sfc high was
centered in the Plains near the KS/OK with another sfc high
centered near the Alberta and Saskatchewan border. Locally, under
southwest flow dewpoints were mainly in the 20s, with some upper
teens in the southeast where less rain was received on Thursday.
Under the southwest flow and following the lighter precipitation
on Thursday, rh has not fallen off quite as much as would be
expected with PW in the 0.1 to 0.2 inch range and below the 10th
percentile for this time of year.

Tonight and Saturday, the axis of the upper level ridge will shift
east to the eastern seaboard late this evening and into the
overnight, reaching the western Atlantic by sunrise on Saturday.
Meanwhile, the 500 mb trough axis will rotate east across portions
of Ontario to near the Quebec border to the Lake Huron Vicinity
and the Lower OH Valley, crossing eastern KY late tonight. This
will push the first dry and weakening front to the eastern Great
Lakes to Central KY to TX by dawn on Saturday while the next
front upstream should reach Ontario to the mid MS Valley. The
combined dry front should cross eastern KY through midday on
Saturday with high pressure building in at the surface and aloft
in its wake. Shortwave upper ridging should reach the MS Valley
on Saturday evening the the axis of this ridge crossing eastern
KY on Saturday night. Meanwhile the trough that is currently
working into the western Conus will have moved east quickly
reaching the Plains Saturday evening and into the Central Conus
on Saturday night, approaching the MS Valley late. The associated
sfc low should reach MS to end the period with a frontal zone
south and southwest to OK and the TX panhandle vicinity and a warm
front, the return of the Saturday boundary into parts of the TN
Valley.

Before the dry front nears tonight, the dry airmass and sfc high
pressure departing should promote some decoupling valley locations
and a drop in temperatures toward the mid 30s for some of the more
sheltered locations in particular. As the pressure gradient
increases overnight, mixiness will increase and temperatures in
these sheltered valleys should increase at least somewhat. Near
and behind the boundary on Saturday, opted to go above both the
NBM deterministic wind and wind gusts speeds and lean toward the
higher NBM percentiles and Consshort and HRRR numbers. This gets
gusts into ranges suggested by BUFKIT momentum transfer. For
Saturday night, high pressure will slide east across the area and
this should allow for valleys to decouple, especially in the east
and readings there could fall below freezing and at least some
frost will be possible. Clouds will increase mainly at the mid and
high levels for Saturday night, with some low clouds possibly
encroaching on more western locations.

With fairly low rh at present and below 30 percent and in some
cases nearer to 20 percent gusts in some cases of at least 10 to
15 mph, increased fire danger into the evening was mentioned in
the HWO. RH should again fall to near or below 30 percent on
saturday while wind gusts will be stronger, getting into the 20
to 30 mph range, increased fire danger was also mentioned for
Saturday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2025

The forecast period begins with a surface low diving out of southern
Canada into the Upper Plains. As this system tracks into the Great
Lakes, a trailing cold front will approach the Commonwealth and be
on the doorstep of the CWA by Sunday morning. Through the day
Sunday, increasing PoP chances are expected with thunderstorms
developing late Sunday afternoon and continuing through very early
Monday morning. The SPC has the far southwestern portion (Wayne
County) of the CWA under a Day 3 Marginal Risk for this cold front
and the potential severe weather associated with this front. The CWA
has seen the severe threat continue to shift southwest with the last
couple of daily SPC updates and no reason not to see that trend
continue as instability will be lacking with this boundary and the
severe weather risk appears really limited. However, can`t rule out
a thunderstorm pushing severe limits. Once the front crosses through
the region early Monday afternoon, showers will taper off from west
to east as surface high pressure builds in from the west. More
seasonal temperatures will build back into the region beginning
Monday and continuing through the end of the forecast period. Also,

Models have come into a little better agreement with a clipper
system approaching the area for Tuesday. The GFS has jumped on board
with the trend and now the forecast is 30%-40% PoP for Tuesday
afternoon, 30%-40% overnight Tuesday and decreasing PoP for
Wednesday as high pressure returns to the forecast area. Once the
system exits late Wednesday, surface high pressure leading clear
skies and post-frontal CAA will build into the area allowing for
colder temperatures and the potential for widespread frost late
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Surface high pressure
remains in place through the day Thursday before a warm front lifts
into the region bringing warmer temperatures and increased rain
chances for Friday.

Overall the period will be highlighted by several passing systems
that`ll bring chances of rain and thunderstorms and a return to more
seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT FRI MAR 21 2025

VFR was observed and issuance time and is expected to prevail
through the period as high pressure slides east and a dry cold
front crosses eastern KY late tonight. As the front approaches,
winds aloft will increase sufficiently for southwesterly LLWS
between around 03z to 11z. A generally southwest wind is expected
at 5 to 8 kts this evening, gradually increasing with some weak
mixing as winds within the low-level jet increase overnight. As
frontal passage occurs by 12z, winds will become westerly and
remain westerly through the afternoon with speeds increasing to
10 to 15 kts with gusts as high as 20 to 25 kts through Saturday
afternoon, with some potential reductions in winds and wind gusts
and a directional shift to more west-northwesterly after 22z
Saturday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

 1006 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Knox, Antelope, and Pierce
  counties from 1pm to 8pm Saturday for low RH values and strong
  wind gusts. Scattered rain chances (15-30%) return to forecast
  area Saturday evening.

- 25-35 mph northwest winds return for Sunday, with gusts up to
  45 mph. This will lead to very high fire danger.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Saturday Night/

Our remaining snowpack from Wednesday`s storm system continues to
erode quickly today as evident from GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase imagery.
RAP objective analysis shows a 500 mb shortwave draped across our
forecast area this afternoon associated with a closed upper level
low across northern Ontario. At the sfc, a front extending from the
associate Ontario sfc low has pushed through the forecast area this
afternoon, resulting in some gusty northwest winds behind the front.
Expect gusts to range from 25 to 35 mph as we continue into the
afternoon hours. These winds in combination with low relative
humidity values in areas outside of the current snow pack (southeast
and northeast Nebraska), will lead to very high fire danger. People
in these areas should avoid burning. Some forcing is evident with
the aforementioned shortwave as a few scattered rain showers
are developing this afternoon, mainly across northern portions
of our forecast area. Expect this activity to move to the east
southeast tonight, but any accumulations from these showers
should remain light. Gusty winds will subside later tonight with
RH values also recovering to above 50%. Lows tonight will reach
the mid 20s to low 30s.

Saturday will see southerly flow return ahead of another shortwave
ejecting from the Wyoming/Colorado area. This shortwave will induce
a sfc low over South Dakota which will track east during the daytime
hours Saturday. Ahead of this feature, gusty southerly winds are
likely, given RAP BUFKIT soundings show decent mixing occurring up
into a 30kt 850 mb LLJ. The combination of drier air mixing down
with gusty 30-35 mph winds across northeast Nebraska will lead to
very high fire danger. In collaboration with neighboring offices,
have decided to issue a Red Flag Warning for Knox, Pierce, and
Antelope counties from 1 pm to 8 pm Saturday evening. Burning is
discouraged in these areas. High fire danger is also possible across
far southeast portions of Nebraska, despite technically not
meeting Red Flag Warning criteria there. Winds will decrease
slightly by the night time hours but remain breezy. The sfc
feature in South Dakota will drag along a cold front through the
area Saturday evening. This will result in chances for a few
scattered showers, but a dry layer evident in some soundings
across the area may hamper these chances. Currently have left
chances at 15-25% across most of the area, except for northern
portions of the CWA where some areas have a 30% chance given the
dry air is overcome enough to result in rain. Highs Saturday
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, while lows will be in the
upper 30s to low 40s.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/

By Sunday, expect to see windy conditions behind the front. BUFKIT
soundings show ample mixing into a 30-40 kt LLJ. This will result in
sustained northwest winds from 25 to 35 mph during the daytime
hours, with gusts up to 45 mph across the far north. GEFS and EPS
ensembles clearly highlight these gusty winds, with the EPS being
noticeably more aggressive as some members show gusts at times
reaching 50 mph. Will need to continue to monitor the latest trends
to determine if a Wind Advisory will be needed for Sunday. The
strength of these winds and low RHs may also result in very high
fire danger for portions of the forecast area, and may warrant a Red
Flag Warning depending on how trends play out as we get closer to
Sunday. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 50s to low 60s across the
area with minimal cloud cover expected.

Northwest flow aloft will dominate the upper air pattern through at
least the midweek timeframe. Within this flow, a few shortwaves are
evident, notably on Monday evening and Tuesday. NBM PoPs show
anywhere from 15-20% chances for rain across our far northern areas
Monday evening, while Tuesday evening currently has the wave farther
east from our area keeping us generally dry into Wednesday.
Temperatures will be on a warming trend from Sunday through Thursday
as hinted at by the NBM, given a 1000-500 mb thermal ridge begins
developing across the western CONUS and eventually tracks eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1006 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

VFR conditions favored through the period with passing mid level
clouds. Expect a brief period of northwesterly winds at the
start of the period at OMA and LNK, but all 3 TAF sites will
largely see southerly winds with gusts of 20-30 kts by mid-day
Saturday. Also expect some low level wind shear toward the end
of the period with winds around 2000 ft out of the southwest at
45-55 kts. Finally, still need to keep an eye on potential fog
development near any remaining snowpack tonight, but latest
guidance has trended toward lower chances of this happening.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ011-016-
     017.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...CA




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning in effect across the entire area until 7 PM.
  Gusty south to southwest winds of 35 to 45 mph and minimum
  relative humidity values around 20 to 25%.

- Elevated fire danger persists through the weekend into early
  next week.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms likely (50-90%) Saturday night
  into Sunday morning. There is a low chance (5%) for an
  isolated strong to severe thunderstorm capable of producing
  hail up to the size of ping pongs along and north of Highway
  60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Current water vapor imagery paired with RAP analysis depicts a
mid-level shortwave across the northern Plains with a subtle
upper-level shortwave trough currently traversing Missouri. Very
little impact to the surface is attributed to the subtle upper-
level wave. However, the shortwave across the northern Plains is
forcing a deepening low-pressure system moving across MN/WI. An
attendant surface cold front extends south through the central
Plains. The associated mass response into the low pressure
system is increasing southerly winds across our area. Joplin is
observing wind gusts right around just above 45 mph and
Springfield is gusting between 30 and 40 mph. Joplin and areas
around the I-49 corridor are intermittently hitting Wind
Advisory criteria, but we are not expecting persistence of
these conditions to issue a short-fused advisory at this point
in time. Nevertheless, expect intermittent gusts up to 45 mph
are through the late afternoon hours. These gusts paired with
observed relative humidities below 25% are verifying a Red Flag
Warning in effect for the entire area until 7 PM. High
temperatures are on track to each the middle to upper 60s today.


Red Flag Warning in effect for the entire area until 7 PM:

Observed fuels are currently between 6-10%. Additionally,
observed relative humidities are between 19-26% as of 2 PM. With
a couple more hours of daytime mixing, we could see some further
dropping of RHs to the 15-20% range in some places. This will
continue to produce Red Flag conditions until 7 PM. Some fires
and hot spots have been noted today, though it is a bit
difficult to detect these with cloud cover obscuring satellite
view to the ground. Nevertheless, fires have been reported and
any burning is strongly discouraged, as has been the story this
past week.

After the Red Flag expires, lows will drop into the middle to
upper 30s tonight.


Elevated fire danger persists through the weekend:

Relatively dry air, slightly warmer temperatures in the upper
60s to lower 70s, and modest winds will continue Elevated Fire
Danger through at least Tuesday. See the Fire Weather section at
the bottom of this discussion for more details on each day.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Showers and a few thunderstorms likely late Saturday night:

Another trough is progged to dive into the northern Plains
Saturday night, finally advecting in some appreciable moisture
across the Ozarks. The westerly flow at the base of the trough
will advect an elevated mixed layer eastward on top of the
low-level moisture. This will create a setup for elevated
instability Saturday night. A 40-60 kt low-level jet ahead of
the system will kick-start strong warm air advection (keeping
low temperatures in the 50s) and initiate elevated showers and
thunderstorms across southern Missouri (60-90% chance).


Low chance for severe thunderstorms capable of large hail:

Individual CAM soundings show skinny instability profiles
across Missouri. This would normally decrease confidence on
amount of instability for severe weather, however, analysis of
HREF mean and member soundings show pretty good agreement in
500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE despite the skinny profiles. This gives
good confidence that enough elevated instability should be
present for thunderstorms Saturday night.

Southerly surface flow beneath 40-60 kts of westerly 500 mb flow
will promote large curved hodographs with 50-60 kts of 0-6 km
bulk shear. Since storms will be elevated above 1 km or so,
lopping off the lowest 1 km of the hodograph still gives 50-60
kts of effective bulk shear with generally straight hodographs.
This will be enough for elevated splitting supercells if
instability can be realized. Furthermore, HREF hodographs do
show backing above the inflow layer, which may even favor left-
moving supercells. Either way, any elevated supercell that can
develop will be capable of producing hail up to the size of ping
pongs, possibly even gold balls. Winds are less of a concern
with a nocturnal inversion, though they can`t be ruled out. The
large hail parameter ahead of the system has values of 4-6 along
and north of Highway 60, which research suggests max hail size
of ping pongs to golf balls. This is mainly driven by 7-8 C/km
mid-level lapse rates within the EML. RAP forecast decreases
these through the night, but if they can stay somewhat steady,
hail size may be slightly increased.

All that being said, coverage of any potential severe
thunderstorms will be low, as the Storm Prediction Center has a
Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for areas along and north of Highway 60
(5% chance of isolated large hail).


Area Forecast for rest of the week:

After the system moves through, the trough will stall out over
the northeast CONUS, allowing northwesterly flow to dominate
over our region. The cold front from the system will also keep
moisture locked away in the Gulf for much of the week, keeping
our area within a dry airmass through at least Tuesday. See the
Fire Weather section for more details on these concerns.

Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the middle 60s to lower 70s
with lows in the upper 30s Sunday night and middle to upper 40s
Monday night. A warming trend through the week then commences as
broad and amplified upper-level ridge slowly translates into the
region. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s,
and slowly warm up to the lower 80s by Friday. Lows will be in
the 40s Tuesday night, rising to the middle 50s Thursday and
Friday night. Confidence is pretty high in these temperatures
and the warming trend as NBM spreads are low and the ridge looks
to be pretty pronounced in most global models.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

Only high clouds will lead to prevailing VFR conditions through
the entire TAF period. Main concern is gusty southwesterly
winds today. JLN has already gusted to 37 kts and SGF has gusted
to 35 kts. Gusts up to 40 kts are expected to continue until
23-01Z. After that time, winds will diminish and gradually shift
to NW`ly, before quickly shifting back to SE`ly before the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025

It`s a broken record of dry weather and windy conditions through
at least Tuesday. The good news is that winds will stay modest
after today, but will still be enough for at least Elevated Fire
Weather concerns. At the moment, they do not look strong enough
for Red Flag Warnings, but as high resolution guidance comes
into range, this could change with subsequent forecasts. Below
are some fire weather parameters through Tuesday:

Sunday:

High Temperatures: 65-75 F
Minimum Relative Humidity: 25-35%
Sustained Winds: NW 15-20 mph
Wind Gusts: 20-30 mph

Monday:

High Temperatures: 62-70 F
Minimum Relative Humidity: 20-25%
Sustained Winds: WNW 8-12 mph
Wind Gusts: 15-20 mph

Tuesday:

High Temperatures: 67-75 F Minimum
Relative Humidity: 25-35%
Sustained Winds: NW 15-20 mph
Wind Gusts: 20-30 mph

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price
FIRE WEATHER...Price