Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/18/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1100 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits the area Monday night. High pressure builds
in Wednesday. A low pressure system approaches Thursday and
moves through the area Friday. Shortwave ridging will build
towards the area Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
11 PM Update...No major changes to the current forecast.
Observations show the cold front is now exiting the Downeast
coast while precipitation continues over much of Maine. Rain has
transitioned to snow in much of northern Aroostook county and
should continue before tapering off within the next few hours.
Meanwhile, rain continues farther south but should transition to
snow over the next couple hours before the precipitation exists
the area. Temperatures continue to drop so some slick conditions
are possible on untreated roads. Some light freezing rain cannot
be ruled out but it should not exceed a trace.
Previous Discussion...
Rest of the Afternoon...As of 2pm, the surface cold front runs
from Caribou SW to around Greenville, and is moving SE through
the area. Widespread light to locally moderate rain is
occurring, with the moderate rain over SE portions of the area
in Washington County. Still plenty of rain is present behind the
cold front thanks to moist SW flow aloft ahead of the
approaching upper trough, with moisture overrunning the low-
level cold air behind the front. Expect rain to change to snow
roughly around or just before sunset in the St John Valley.
However, there is still considerable uncertainty as to the
changeover timing. Colder air is spilling SE behind the front
through the Saguenay Fjord of Quebec and into far Northern
Maine, but some models such as the HiRes NSSL and HiRes ARW have
been way too aggressive at advecting in low-level cold air from
Saguenay, and have discounted the coldest models. Even throwing
out those outliers, there is still a fair amount of
disagreement. HRRR seems reasonable though and didn`t stray too
far from it for temperatures the rest of the afternoon and into
the evening. Fog threat ends behind the cold frontal passage.
Tonight...As mentioned above, colder air and the changeover
from rain to snow is a concern this evening as precipitation
behind the front. This does not look like a big event by any
stretch of the imagination, but totals over 1 inch or possible,
mainly in northern/eastern areas and especially at higher
elevations. To compound the challenge, some models keep enough
warm air aloft for a period of freezing rain, especially from
Houlton south into northern/central Washington County. Not
convinced of this, but did add in slight chance of freezing rain
atop the snow just in case. Do not have nearly enough
confidence to do any sort of advisory for freezing rain. Another
concern tonight is wet roads freezing for northern portions of
the area, as it is very unlikely most roads will have time to
dry before temperatures, and road temperatures, fall back below
freezing. Will highlight in SPS and in HWO. Precipitation tapers
off from NW to SE after midnight for all but far SE portions of
the area. Fog threat will wane through the evening thanks to
drier low-level air behind the cold front.
Tuesday...
Quiet day Tuesday with high pressure building in. Any remaining
precip over Eastern Washington County should end by noon.
Generally partly cloudy skies with high in the 40s, as air
behind this system isn`t exactly cold.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday night to Wednesday night...
A ridge of high pressure will build across the region Tuesday
night and move east of the area Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Dry conditions and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are
expected with above normal temperatures as highs reach into the
40s for most areas Wednesday, except around Bangor where
temperatures in the 50s are expected.
Thursday...
An upper level trough approaching from the west will enhance
southerly flow, leading to a breezier and warmer day with highs
ranging from the mid 40s with onshore flow along the coast, to
the upper 50s to around 60 across warmer portions of northern
Maine. Dry conditions are expected to continue with the best
forcing for showers still off to the west through Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday night to Friday early afternoon...
The southern stream shortwave trough over the Mid-Atlantic will
begin to cut off Thursday evening, resulting in slowing of the
eastward progress of precipitation and adding uncertainty to the
forecast. Dry weather is favored through the evening, with low
clouds and drizzle developing over upslope regions with
southerly flow continuing. Rain becomes likely late Thursday
night across western areas, and Friday for areas along the New
Brunswick border.
Friday Night...
Cold air arriving Friday afternoon will change
precipitation across northern Maine over to snow as the surface
low over the Gulf of Maine moves eastward over Nova Scotia.
Uncertainty remains significant with precipitation intensity.
Most deterministic guidance supports a more intense deformation
zone setting up across northern Maine, favoring more snow and an
earlier transition. Ensembles are less bullish with
considerable spread, but generally favor a minor event. Those
with travel interests Friday night across northern Maine should
monitor forecast trends over the next few days for further
updates.
Saturday...
Low pressure will pull away with breezy and cooler, more
seasonable conditions expected as shortwave ridging builds
across the area. Lingering isolated snow showers are possible,
mainly across upslope areas with NW flow like over the North
Woods.
Saturday Night to Sunday Night...
A weak shortwave on Sunday may bring a few snow showers or
flurries across northern Maine. Otherwise, seasonable
temperatures are expected Saturday night through Sunday night.
Early Next Week...
Surface and upper level ridging builds towards the area Monday
with dry conditions favored. Deterministic and ensemble
forecasts favor a vigorous shortwave approaching the area Monday
night into Tuesday with potential for accumulating snow across
northern Maine. This is still far out on day 8 of the forecast,
but is worth monitoring given the moderate to strong signal in
the deterministic and ensemble guidance for this time range.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL Tonight...With the cold front now past
northern terminals a mix of MVFR/IFR is expected with
precipitation persisting. Rain will mix with and change to snow
late this evening before precipitation ends first at FVE around
2z and at HUL around 8z. Winds NW and around 10 kts. VFR
conditions late tonight after the precipitation ends.
KBGR/KBHB Tonight...IFR conditions with rain should improve to
MVFR as the precipitation ends and the cold front moves out of
the area. Winds NW at 5-10 kts. Rain ends toward 6-10z,
possibly briefly mixing with snow before ending, with
improvement to VFR after the precipitation ends.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. N wind around 10 kt.
SHORT TERM:
Tuesday Night...VFR. Winds light and variable.
Wednesday-Wednesday Night...VFR. S-SE winds 5-15 kts.
Thursday-Thursday Night...VFR, becoming MVFR/IFR with low
ceilings in the afternoon at coastal airports. IFR ceilings
spread northward overnight with rain developing. S winds 10-15
kts with gusts to 25 kts. LLWS possible Thursday night.
Friday-Friday Night...MVFR/IFR with RA, changing to SN at northern
airports. SE winds rapidly shift NW Friday with speeds around
10 to 15 kts, gusting to 20 kts. Confidence in snowfall amounts,
intensity, and the resulting visibility is low.
Saturday: VFR with isolated snow showers possible across the
north. NNW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small craft advisory through Tuesday. Reduced
visibility due to areas of fog, with fog improving late
tonight/early Tuesday. Seas stay elevated through Tuesday.
Winds from the S, shifting to the N later tonight and remaining
N Tuesday.
SHORT TERM: Seas will remain at Small Craft Advisory levels
Tuesday night over all waters, decreasing below advisory levels
over the intracoastal waters on Wednesday. Winds and seas will
both be marginal for extension of the Small Craft Advisory
Thursday through Saturday. Winds and seas diminish below
advisory levels on Sunday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Significant snowpack loss has occurred over the past few days.
A few inches of snow water equivalent remains, mainly in
sheltered, wooded areas from the Central Highlands north.
Rainfall of 0.50 to 1.25 inches has also occurred. Significant
snowmelt continues into early this evening, but will slow down
later tonight as cooler, drier air moves in. The slower snowmelt
will persist into Wednesday, but will still be occurring as
daytime temperatures will easily be above freezing. An increased
period of snowmelt comes Thursday/Thursday night.
Thankfully, the natural flow under river ice is below normal
and river rises will remain gradual on the larger rivers, though
some smaller streams have risen faster. River ice will continue
to undergo weakening through thermal rot.
River ice is breaking up in many locations, leading to an
elevated risk for ice jam flooding through the next few days.
Rivers Downeast are increasingly becoming ice-free.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The ASOS in Caribou, KCAR, is down until further notice, and
current conditions will be unavailable. However, precipitation
and temperatures will be manually input into the daily climate
reports from a backup sensor.
Additionally, the AWOS in Presque Isle, KPQI, is scheduled to
be down for scheduled FAA maintenance during the day on
Wednesday.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Foisy/Melanson
Short Term...MStrauser
Long Term...Clark/MStrauser
Aviation...Foisy/Melanson/MStrauser
Marine...Foisy/Melanson/MStrauser
Hydrology...
Equipment...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
655 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Extreme fire weather risk Monday and Tuesday afternoons, with unseasonably
warm afternoon temperatures and strong southwest winds.
- An intense storm system will bring accumulating wet snow and intense
north winds, Tuesday night and early Wednesday with a High
Wind Watch in effect. Near blizzard conditions are most likely
along and north of K-96 early Wednesday.
- Dramatically colder with intense, potentially damaging,
northwest winds Wednesday. Upgrading the High Wind Watch to a
High wind warning is expected to be required.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025
Currently the southern half of the CWA is in a Red Flag Warning
until 8 PM. Most of the warning has already met the criteria with
relative humidities well below 10%. Winds have been a little lighter
than previously forecasted and are struggling to meet the 25 mph
threshold. Most of SW Kansas have reached 80 degrees and the rest of
SW Kansas is expected to reach at least 80 today. Into tomorrow
morning, another Red Flag Warning is in effect starting at 11 AM and
also ends at 8PM. Relative humidities are forecasted, and backed by
ensembles, to be similar to Monday with even stronger winds. While
this is happening, RAP mesoanalysis has a shortwave over the NW
CONUS that is forecasted to continue moving over the Rockies through
Tuesday supported by short ranged models/ensembles.
Ensembles continue to hold firm that the shortwave will quickly
deepen and strengthen to a closed low pressure system before
entering Kansas as it moves off the Rockies. Shortly after reaching
Kansas there is great agreement among models/ensembles that the
system will become negative titled and eject northeastward up out of
Kansas. Nearly every model/ensemble have the mid-level system over
NW Kansas by the start of Wednesday. It will be crucial to see how
this track holds up over the next couple days as it directly
influences the winter weather potential. Prior to that, a High Wind
Watch is in effect starting 7 PM CDT Tuesday. Northwest winds are
expected to be from 35-45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph. Winds will
continue to strengthen as the system does, especially behind the
cold front. Between radiational cooling and the cold front
generating significant CAA, a tremendous temperature drop is
expected over Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning of over 40
degrees. Wednesday will see the highest winds with gusts up to 70
mph supported by strong winds through the entire atmospheric column.
The entire forecast area is expected to see very strong winds until
the system exits with the High Wind Watch currently set to expire at
7 PM CDT Wednesday. With the high confidence for very strong winds,
it is expected that it will need to be upgraded to a High Wind
Warning within the next day. With the winds and blowing dust
potential, precautions should be taken especially those traveling.
The systems precipitation potential is the most uncertain and
potentially the most seriously impactful aspect. Ensembles have a
>75% chance for precipitation for virtually all of SW Kansas except
along the OK/KS border where it drops to 50%. Nearly every facet of
the precipitation forecast has uncertainty including how much will
fall, how far south will it stretch, and when will the rain shift to
snow. The onset will be warm enough for all of the initial
precipitation to fall as rain behind ensembles` frontogenesis band
at 850 mb pushing into SW Kansas very late Tuesday. As the
temperatures plummet, most of the rain is expected to switch to snow
over Wednesday morning except for the leading edge. Areas north of
Highway 56 have the best opportunity for snow. During this shift,
areas that received rain could freeze freeze creating some slick
surfaces especially with the very strong winds. Rainfall
accumulations are expected to be minimal (<0.25 in) with the light
rain moving quickly and shifting to snow. Snowfall amounts
forecasted have peeled back slightly with new guidance being closer
to the 1-3 inch range. Accumulations will be even less as it falls
as wet snow where much could melt on contact with the surface.
Caution should still be taken as places where snow does accumulate
could lay over frozen surfaces where rain/melted snow fell
previously. While the accumulations amounts are not too significant,
not much falling snow will be needed to drop visibilities to near
zero, especially with the very strong winds. The WPC continues to
have areas along and north of Highway 96 at a >50% for moderate
blowing snow impacts. If all of this realizes, blizzard conditions
will be met despite the relatively low snowfall amounts. Between the
high wind watch and the winter storm watch, there is high confidence
in both. The only pause in upgrading to a blizzard warning is the
uncertainty to the spatial extent of the snowy conditions. For
example, the RAP and ECMWF have meaningful snowfall as far south as
the southern row of Kansas` counties; the NAM has snow restricted to
the northern 6 zones while the GFS and HRRR are in between the two.
Regardless of the extent of the winter storm, the entirety of SW
Kansas should take precautions especially those with expected travel.
Highs on Wednesday will work to fight back up to the 50s after the
system exits and the northwest winds weaken significantly. With
continued CAA on Wednesday, lows Thursday morning are forecasted to
be in the 20s. On Thursday, southwesterly winds return with some
downslope winds sharply warming into the 60s where ensemble means
currently reside. Friday is expected to host a subtle shortwave
trough to the north of the forecast area by models/ensembles. Little
tangible impact is expected to be felt outside of a sharp wind shift
and some CAA as the system`s precipitation potential remains near
0. Yet another shortwave is depicted by ensembles Sunday, but
uncertainty remains fairly high this far out.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025
An upper level storm system will approach the plains during the
period. South to southwest winds at 10 to 15 kts will increase
to 20-25 kts by 18-21z as stronger mid level winds mix to the
surface with daytime heating. VFR conditions are forecast; but
blowing dust could reduce visibilities to 2-3 miles or less at
KLBL between 20-00z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025
A Red Flag Warning is currently in effect until 8 PM CDT Monday
for the southern two rows of counties including Hamilton and
Kearny. Relative humidities are expected as low as 5% with most
of the Warning already having reached below 10%. Sustained
southwest winds remain just shy of criteria at 15-20 mph, but
the southwestern counties have consistently gusted above 25 mph.
Another Red Flag Warning is in place for the entire CWA
starting at 11 AM CDT and ending at 8 PM CDT. Widespread 8-15%
relatives humidities are expected to carry over from Monday with
the transport of dry air from the southwest. Winds will be more
significant on Tuesday from the southwest with a developing
system moving off the Rockies. Sustained winds are expected up
to 40 mph with gusts potentially reaching 50 mph during the
duration of the Warning. Later on Tuesday, after the Warning, a
sharp wind shift out of the northwest is expected with a frontal
passage as winds continue to strengthen.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening
for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.
Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon for KSZ030-031-043>046.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ061-062-074>078-080-081-084>090.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Finch
FIRE WEATHER...KBJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
937 PM MDT Mon Mar 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast Tuesday as the
Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
along with expansion of the area. SW winds gusting to 50 to 55
mph are forecast along with a wind shift to the NW later in
the day.
- High Wind Watch remains in effect for the entire area Tuesday
evening through Wednesday afternoon.
- Winter Storm Watch remains in effect with the addition of
Hitchcock county. Blizzard conditions remain forecasted into
the day Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon Mar 17 2025
Upper level cirrus across the Rockies is ongoing which has tempered
winds overall some allowing for not consistent mixing of winds down
to the surface to occur. The Red Flag Warning for portions of
the area remains where more consistent wind gusts of 25-30 mph
are occurring. As mentioned in the update, winds across Yuma
county were a little more marginal but due to the potential for
wind gusts of 30- 40 mph if full mixing did occur would lead to
the fire weather potential for which the warning was issued for.
Typically, I would not have issued given what the low level
winds looked like, but given the potential for breezy to gusty
winds if the fully mixing would have panned out would have lead
to the potential for quickly spreading fires. Overnight winds
are forecast to remain mainly southerly helping keep
temperatures above the mid 30s for lows across the entire area.
Tuesday, will be the start of a potential high impact, multi hazard
day. A developing surface low across eastern Colorado will
essentially remain in place throughout the day leading to a
continued fetch of southwesterly winds promoting warmer and dry
conditions for much of the area. A developing 850mb jet through the
afternoon will lead to wind gusts up to 50 mph and perhaps even
stronger if winds are able to tap into the 700mb flow, which was
seen via the 12Z run of the HRRR. A wind shift to the NW is also
forecast during the late afternoon and into the evening hours. All
of this combined will lead to a concerning fire weather setup along
with the extreme grassland fire danger for areas along and south of
Interstate 70. Perhaps the only thing keeping the fire day from
being any worse is that the ERC (Energy Release Component) is
in the 50th to 70th percentile with the higher amounts across
Cheyenne, Greeley, Wichita an Wallace counties. Any fire that
develops will burn furiously. There is also the potential for
blowing along and south of Interstate 70. There is concern for
plumes of dust originating from southeast Colorado and may be
advected into the area with the favored area being Cheyenne
(CO), Wallace, Greeley and Wichita counties. However confidence
is low in how long the dust can remain "capped" due to higher
2.2.5 lapse rates being around 8 C/KM which would allow dust to
diffuse into the air, which would lead to more of an air quality
issue. There is the potential should any dust develop for
localized brownout conditions especially next to open fields or
any other source regions.
Tuesday night, the cold front is currently forecast to move into the
area around 6-8pm MT. Cold fronts do occasionally have the
tendency to move quicker than guidance suggests so will need to
keep a close eye on that. If that does occur then the potential
for a haboob will increase. At this time am thinking this is
around a 10% chance. Behind the front winds are forecast to
increase rapidly as both GFS and NAM both show 11-15mb pressure
rises along with a very quickly developing and strong wind
field. GFS is the most aggressive with wind gusts of 50-55
knots near the surface and winds around 70 knots around the
775-725mb range. Have issued a High Wind Watch for the entire
area due to this, currently messaging 65 mph wind gusts. If the
GFS is correct wind gusts exceeding 70 mph is possible.
Typically a overnight high wind event does struggle to pan out
but do think the pressure rises will be enough to overcome this.
precipitation is also forecasted to increase behind the front
as well with rain initially before changing over to all snow
through the night as cold air advection increases. The
combination of the wind and the snow is forecast to lead to near
blizzard to blizzard conditions for most of the area. The Watch
area remains the same but have added Hitchcock county into the
watch as well. I am continuing to watch the potential for
convective snow across the east, as the RAP and NAM both show
around 200 j/kg of MUCAPE roughly along and east of Highway 83.
Current forecast is around 1-3 inches across the area, but at
this time currently have low confidence due to the the warm
surface temperatures, if the rain will melt the snow, have
precip type issues and if the convective band will occur or not.
At this time am thinking the most likely, definition of a
blizzard conditions will occur across the east due to the better
potential for accumulating snow and the potential for
additional re-lofting of snow. The combination of the strong
winds and snow will also add additional stress to trees and
power lines may lead to power outage issues. The snow is
forecast to end west to east through the morning hours before
being completely out of the area by the early afternoon hours
but the wind is forecast to continue however.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon Mar 17 2025
Thursday, mid level ridging moves across the area. Breezy southwest
winds are forecast to continue as a surface trough moves across the
area. Another day of critical fire weather conditions does remain
possible for southern and western portions of the area at this
time.
Friday, is forecast to see another quickly developing surface low
develop on top of the area. Increasing wind fields through the day
is forecast to lead to another day of gusty winds potentially
approaching 55 mph. Some very subtle moisture advection looks
to occur across the area which may lead to some rain and snow
chances currently favored along and north of Interstate 70 at
this time.
The active pattern is then forecast to continue as yet another low
pressure system and cold front move across the area. At this time,
it is to soon to identify the exact details and where of potential
hazards. This one does seem to have a little more moisture ahead of
the front so may need to keep an eye on thunderstorm potential.
The current forecast temperatures are currently forecast to be a
little more seasonable with highs in the 50s and 60s currently for
the entire area. A potential more tranquil pattern may emerge next
week with signals of a ridge developing.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 936 PM MDT Mon Mar 17 2025
For KGLD, VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. 6sm
in blowing dust also possible from 20z-01z. Winds, southwest
10-20kts through 20z, then increasing to around 25-35kts. By
01z Wednesday, as a front moves through the area, winds go west
20-30kts shifting northwest by 02z, then north from 04z onward
30-40kts.
For KMCK, VFR conditions expected through much of the forecast
period. MVFR ceilings possible from 05z Wednesday onward. Winds,
light/variable through 20z, then becoming southwest 10-15kts.
Gusts to 25kts from 22z-00z. By 00z Wednesday, winds shift
westerly due to a front pushing into the area around 15-30kts.
By 03z, north-northeast around 25-35kts. LLWS 06z-20z Tuesday
200@35kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM MDT /9 PM
CDT/ Tuesday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
for COZ090>092.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ253-254.
Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning for COZ091-092.
NE...High Wind Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
for NEZ079>081.
Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon for NEZ080-081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...JN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 551 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025
- Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are expected across
the region today and Tuesday.
- Strong winds return to west Texas and southeast New Mexico
Tuesday afternoon. A High Wind Warning is in effect for
southeastern New Mexico into the Davis Mountains, and a Wind
Advisory is in effect tomorrow from the Permian Basin to the Big
Bend.
- No precipitation chances through the extended, with episodic
increased fire weather whenever gusty winds are present.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025
Current satellite and latest RAP analysis shows a mid-level ridge
over the region with a trough off the California coast. The ridge
will provide warmer temperatures and critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon. Tonight, the warming trend continues
with lows reaching the mid 40s to 50s regionwide. Temperatures
across the northern half of the forecast area have the potential
of being warmer tonight/tomorrow morning due to modest cloud
coverage and breezy southerly winds, which will moderate our
typical temperature fluctuation.
Things get interesting tomorrow as another mid-level trough
approaches the region, along with lee cyclogenesis occurring
across northeastern Colorado. This will supply another round of
hazardous winds and fire weather conditions across the area. High
Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been issued beginning as
early as overnight tonight lasting through early Wednesday
morning. Another hazard to consider with these strong winds is
blowing dust. Compared to last Friday, this event is anticipated
to not be as significant. The greater concentration of the blowing
dust will be confined to the higher terrain and across southeast
New Mexico. Areas eastward still has the potential in seeing
reduced visibilities, however, it will not be as concentrated due
to the higher winds being off to the west. Critical to extreme
fire weather conditions are also expected areawide. Temperature
wise, it is going to be a very warm day with highs expected to
range from the mid 70s to lower 90s tomorrow afternoon. The
aforementioned system pushes a cold front into the region by
tomorrow night, dropping low temperatures to the mid 30s to mid
40s with breezy conditions.
Lamberson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025
Zonal upper level flow continues across the United States the
remainder of the week as a series of upper troughs moves across
the upper Midwest. Fortunately the systems will remain farther
north than we have seen recently preventing strong winds from
developing, and hopefully also reducing blowing dust. Any
cold fronts associated with the troughs will either not make it
into our CWA, or will be so modified as to not affect temperatures
much if at all. Therefore the temperature forecast is for a
gradual warming trend into the weekend with highs reaching the
upper 70s to 80s by Sunday. There will be no chance for rainfall.
Hennig
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025
VFR conditions continue through tonight through the morning
hours. Breezy southerly winds are occurring at most terminals
currently, these winds will weaken slightly tonight. MAF and FST
may maintain elevated winds through the overnight hours. A strong
weather system impacts the region by Tuesday afternoon. Very
strong southwest winds are anticipated for the area. The strongest
winds will be focused across the westernmost TAF sites. Blowing
dust will be a concern with these winds, but the level of
visibility reductions remains uncertain. At least light
visibility reductions to low-end VFR and high-end MVFR can be
expected for most terminals through portions of Tuesday
afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025
Upper level clouds have kept the winds down a little lower than
expected this afternoon though some breaks are helping winds
increase above 20 mph the past hour or two. Winds will be stronger
tomorrow as an upper trough reaches the area with strong winds
expected from southeastern New Mexico to the Big Bend and very
windy conditions expected elsewhere. Combined with RHs in the
single digits and very high ERC values fire weather conditions
will become critical to extreme. A cold front will bring a slight
wind shift late in the afternoon from the southwest to a westerly
or northwesterly direction. Winds diminish Wednesday as the upper
trough exits the region though breezy conditions will keep the
fire threat elevated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 54 90 46 64 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 51 80 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 51 92 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 57 88 47 67 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 56 67 37 56 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 47 79 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 47 80 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 53 88 45 62 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 53 85 45 62 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 48 88 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
Andrews-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-
Scurry-Terrell-Upton.
High Wind Warning from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Tuesday to 7 AM CDT
/6 AM MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-
Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-
Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
High Wind Warning from noon Tuesday to 1 AM CDT Wednesday for
Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
Loving-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.
Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to 4 AM CDT Wednesday for
Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
Basin-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Lower
Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-
Upton-Ward-Winkler.
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
Mountains.
High Wind Warning from 3 AM Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Wednesday for
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
Guadalupe Mountains.
High Wind Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to midnight MDT Tuesday
night for Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea-
Southern Lea.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...91