Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/17/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
826 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Severe storms are possible this afternoon into this evening
with damaging winds as the primary threat. High pressure returns
early next week. Above average temps continue.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 830 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- A Tornado Watch is in effect for central VA, south central VA,
and interior northeast NC through 1 AM tonight.
- A slight risk of severe storms has been issued for the
majority of the area for the potential of severe storms with
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes through overnight
hours.
- A flood watch is in effect for parts of SE VA in anticipation
of heavy rainfall totals and possible flash flooding.
A deep upper level trough digs down to the Gulf with a jet streak of
100-150kt just west of the area. A surface low pressure system over
the Great Lakes is dragging a cold front through the area early
morning tomorrow. These features will bring the potential for severe
storms this afternoon into tonight. The main threat with these
storms will be possible damaging winds and an isolated tornado.
The first line of showers has begun making its way through the area,
but does not appear to be severe at this time. The lack of
instability has hindered storms partially from temperatures not
warming up from the SSE flow and previous warm front as thought.
However, CAMs continue on increasing instability with the second
line of storms this evening with around 300-400 J/kg at the surface.
Special 18z soundings from NWS Blacksburg and NWS Morehead City show
low levels of MU CAPE with higher amounts in Blacksburg`s area
(around 600 J/kg) with lower amounts towards the coast at Morehead
City (around 400 J/kg). Although the instability is low, some severe
storms are still possible. Shear remains to meet favorable
conditions for severe weather and tornadoes with the RAP showing 35-
40 kt SFC-1km shear in the piedmont with lower amounts towards the
bay/coast with the second line. SPC continues to include most of the
area, except the immediate coast area, in a slight risk (level 2 out
of 5) of severe weather with the primary threat being damaging winds
(15% probs) and an isolated tornado (5% probs).
With these storms and showers, heavy rain and training storms are
possible with expected rainfall totals 1-2 inches with localized
amounts up to 4 inches. CAMs models show training storms over SE VA
including Hampton Roads, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach receiving up to
4 inches of rain. PWATs are additionally favorable for high amounts
of rainfall. Flood watches have been introduced for the cities of
Chesapeake, Hampton, James City, Newport News, Norfolk, Suffolk, and
VA Beach, and the counties of Isle of Wight, Southampton, Surry,
Sussex, and York through the overnight hours. Urban, low-lying, and
poor drainage areas are more likely to see flash flooding.
Outside of convective wind gusts, a tight pressure gradient will
lead to increased synoptic winds. Wind gusts will be 30-40 mph
through the early morning hours, with the highest gusts in the SE of
the area. Overnight lows will range with the cooler air moving into
the area overnight. Temps will drop to the lower 50s towards the
piedmont and upper 50s towards the coast/Bay.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Drying out Monday with cooler temperatures. Above average
temperatures return Tuesday.
The upper level trough will push eastward with it lingering over the
east coast on Monday. Most of the rain will be pushed out with the
cold front by Monday morning but a few light showers may linger
towards the coast/Bay into Monday afternoon. Winds will be breezy
again with decent daytime mixing with gusts around 20-30 mph. Temps
will be cooler from the airmass behind the front with highs in
the upper 50s for most and NE NC in the lower 60s. Skies will be
clearing in the evening and overnight as temps drop to the mid 30s.
As the surface low moves further offshore Tuesday, high pressure
will begin to build in from the south bringing clear skies and
calmer winds. Highs on Tues will be in the low to mid 60s with lows
in the lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- Above average temperatures on Thursday trend to near to below
average on Friday behind a cold front.
- Showers are likely on Thursday, but rain amounts will be a few
tenths of an inch at most.
- Milder weather returns over the weekend.
An anomalously deep upper trough is progged to track over the ern
CONUS from Thursday through Thursday night. At the sfc, strong low
pressure (~988mb) tracks well to our NW...which will drag a cold
front through the FA during the day. While moisture return ahead of
the front will be meager (and there will likely be no sfc-based
instability in place)...a round of showers is possible with the
FROPA. The most likely timing for precip on Thursday is during the
aftn/evening. Still feel that it is uncertain how much rain will
come out of this system. However, global models are in better
agreement today than they were last night, and show 0.1-0.3" of QPF
east of I-95...with lesser amounts west. Looking to ensemble probs,
both the GEFS amd EPS have 40-80% probs of at least 0.1" of precip
(highest NE/lowest SW). Dry/cooler wx returns on Friday. Highs Thu
in the mid 60s-lower 70s dropping back into the 50s on Fri. A
warming trend is likely this weekend as ridging builds in aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 820 PM EDT Sunday...
VFR to MVFR CIGs with a gusts S wind as of 00z. Convection is
gradually becoming more vigorous, and should become more
widespread between now and 06z. Cigs should mainly be VFR or
MVFR through 03z, with MVFR cigs prevailing thereafter. Vsby
will occasionally fall to LIFR/IFR in heavy rain. The gusty S
wind (to 20-30 kt) will continue through this evening before
becoming SSW and decreasing a bit by 02-04z. In addition, brief
VRB wind gusts to 35-50kt are possible in tstms. The highest
severe threat will be from now to about 05z. Showers exit from
NW-SE early Mon AM as a cold front crosses the area. VFR
conditions return by Monday aftn with SCT-BKN SC. A NNW wind
will increase to 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt later Monday
morning into the aftn.
VFR conditions prevail Monday night through Wednesday. A cold
front crosses the region Thursday bringing a chc showers, with
only brief flight restrictions possible. High pressure and
prevailing VFR conditions return Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 259 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
- SCA Headlines prevail this afternoon into tonight all zones,
lingering through Tuesday on the Ocean.
- While the SCAs end in the Bay, Rivers, and Sound later
tonight, additional headlines will likely be needed later
Monday, and especially Monday night/early Tuesday.
Winds have quickly increased this afternoon ahead of an approaching
cold front. Marine-based observation sites are measuring sustained
winds between 15-25 kts, with occasional gusts to 30 kts. Seas
have rapidly built this afternoon, and will continue to build to
5-8 ft in the southern coastal waters, and up to 7-10 ft in the
northern coastal waters by tonight. Waves in the Bay/Rivers are
between 1-3 ft and are forecast to build to as high as 3-5 ft
in the Bay and 2-3 ft in the rivers/sound this evening. Strong
convection will move through the coastal waters this evening and
overnight. Wind gusts up to 50 kts are possible and will be
handled with Special Marine Warnings as they move into the
waters. Winds outside of convection will briefly diminish late
tonight, so will continue to have the SCAs expire for all but
the Ocean zones (seas remain elevated) between 05z-08z.
There will be a second round of elevated winds starting Monday
afternoon Monday. Guidance has kept a lingering area of low pressure
along the coast as the front slowly moves offshore. The gradient
between this area of low pressure and an area of high pressure
building in from southwest will extend the timeframe of elevated
winds, and with colder air expected Monday night, the highest winds
are anticipated during this timeframe. NNW winds of 15 to 20 kts
with gusts to 25 kts are expected on Monday afternoon, peaking
overnight at 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Winds will diminish by
Tuesday afternoon to 10 to 15 kts, but seas in the Ocean will linger
through at least Tuesday evening before briefly falling to sub-SCA
conditions. The aforementioned area of low pressure will slowly
slide further out into the North Atlantic and strengthen. This
strengthening low will start to produce easterly swells that bring
back SCA level seas to our ocean zones as early as Wednesday morning
despite the lowered winds. Another area of low pressure is progged
to move through the Plains into the Great Lakes region by late week,
and the gradient will tighten yet again ahead of this front,
bringing increasing southerlies by Thursday afternoon. Winds will
quickly shift to the northwest as the front moves through. SCA level
winds are possible in advance of this system, and are likely with
the CAA in its wake (with Gales even possible in some areas).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Monday for VAZ088>090-092-093-
095>098-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>634.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ635>638.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AC
NEAR TERM...AC/KMC/AJZ
SHORT TERM...AC/KMC
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...AJZ/ERI
MARINE...LKB/NB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
726 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through the area this evening,
which will bring rain showers, scattered thunderstorms and windy
conditions along with a chance for localized flooding. Showers
shift east by Monday afternoon, with temporarily cooler weather.
Warm temperatures return on Tuesday and Wednesday with plenty
of sunshine expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM Update...
Thunderstorms continue to weaken and have exited the watch area,
so the severe thunderstorm watch has been canceled a little
early. Some strong storms will still be possible over the next
hour for Otsego County.
5 PM Update...
The MCS is holding together as it heads across our Northern CWA,
so expanded the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to Madison and Oneida
County. No other updates are needed at this time.
305 PM Update
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for western portions
of the forecast area, including the central southern tier of NY
and the western Finger Lakes; which is in effect until 7 PM this
evening. The atmosphere is destabilizing in this area and a
developing line of thunderstorms in western NY/PA is moving this
way. The line of storms will likely continue trekking east,
reaching the I-81 corridor by 5-6 PM this evening, then gradually
weakening as it reaches the Catskills/Mohawk Valley and Poconos
by 6-8 PM. The Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) was expanded with
the midday SPC outlook update...now reaching the I-81 corridor
with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) now covering most of the
rest of the CWA, except far eastern areas. The biggest concern
is still the potential for strong, gusty and isolated damaging
winds. There is now also an isolated tornado potential, with SPC
including a 2% chance for most of the Central NY and NE PA.
Other main concern are the strong synoptic winds late this
afternoon and evening, with 850mb winds reaching 50-75 kts
through the afternoon. KBGM VAD wind profile is showing this
currently, with 70kt winds 1km Above Ground Level (AGL) and
80-90 kt winds at 2km AGL as of 257 PM EDT. These are very
impressive low level winds. These strong winds are occasionally
mixing down to the surface, where gusts are currently between
40-55 mph now being realized over much of the CWA. The 18z HRRR
still showing the potential for these, and even stronger winds
50-60 mph mixing down to the surface for several hours this
afternoon and evening across most of the CWA. There is even the
potential of gravity waves to occasionally drag down very
strong gusts through 6-8 PM. Therefore, the wind advisory
remains in effect for the entire forecast area, and extended the
time until 6-8 PM EDT. Also getting numerous reports of trees
and powerlines down across the area already due to these strong
synoptic winds.
Severe thunderstorm, and strong wind potential is increasing as
again the latest model guidance is picking up on the clearing
and enhanced daytime heating and instability that is heading
this way. 12z NAM and 18z HRRR now show potentially 200-400
J/Kg of MLCAPE over at least the west-central half of the CWA
as a potential squall line of low topped convection moves east
this evening. Bulk effective shear is very strong, is 45-60 kts
which will aid in organizing this strong to severe line.
The timing shows the line reaching I-81 around 5-6 PM and
exiting east of the Catskills/Poconos by around 8-9 PM this
evening. Flood watch remains in effect for Oneida county, mainly
for rapid snow melt and some rainfall, up to about 1 inch as
well. We will monitor creeks and water levels very closely in
this area over the coming 24 hours or so.
The post frontal rain will linger well into the evening hours,
especially along and east of I-81 with another quarter inch or
so of rain expected. Winds turn NW overnight and 850 mb
temperatures dropping to around 0C by daybreak. Drizzle and
light showers will continue in the moist, cool upslope NW flow.
Overnight lows dip down into the 30s and lower 40s...but most of
the precip looks to remain rain. Monday will be colder, slightly
breezy and mainly cloudy. Lingering light rain and snow showers
will continue through the first half of the day as the 500mb
trough moves directly overhead. Temperatures do not recover
very much, with highs only in the upper 30s to 40s expected.
Weak high pressure builds in Monday night with clearing skies
and diminishing winds. Cool overnight lows in the 20s expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
115 PM update...
Main concerns in the short term are focused on the ridge of
higher pressure building in from the southwest and rapidly
warming air moving into the region.
Weather conditions will be generally quiet Tuesday and
Wednesday this week with no precipitation expected, but with
rising temperatures and dry weather conditions, there is an
increasing risk for enhanced fire weather conditions.
A cool/moist air mass in place Monday will be exiting to the
east/northeast on Tuesday as the northern edge of a relatively
low amplitude ridge expands from the Ohio Valley into the Mid
Atlantic and Northeast. As this occurs, 850mb temperatures will
rise from around +1 deg C Tuesday morning to about +7 deg C
Tuesday evening, and to around +12 C Wed afternoon. The initial
push of warm air and weak ridging on Tuesday will be re-
enforced and further emphasized on Wednesday as a deep trough
digs into the Central Plains and amplifies the ridge to the east
and pulls north an even warmer air mass.
The result of this pattern will be mostly sunny skies on
Tuesday with afternoon highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Low
dew points on Tuesday will drop RH values into the 25 to 30 pct
range. The clear skies on Tue night will allow temperatures to
fall into the 30s with recovery RH values into the 70-80 pct
range. Slightly warmer temperatures on Wed...well into the 60s
along with slightly higher dew points (into the mid 30s) will
produce another day with RH values bottoming out in the mid 30
pct range.
Light southerly winds on Tuesday will be replaced by strong
winds on Wednesday. Look for south/SE winds 15 to 20 mph and
gusts up to 30 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
115 PM update...
The warm air mass in place on Wednesday will linger Wed night
and the early part of Thu as a deepening trough of low pressure
rotates through the Ohio Valley into the East Coast. This system
will bring a period of persistent rain showers to the region,
mainly during the day Thursday, and as the cold air moves in on
the back side of the system, many of the rain showers will mix
with and potentially change to snow showers Thu evening. Surface
temperatures will fall from the upper 50s Thu morning into the
lower 40s by the early evening hours and eventually into the
upper 20s and lower 30s late Thu night.
The cold Canadian air will push in aggressively from the
northwest during the day Friday and act to produce lake enhanced
showers, mainly in the form of snow in the morning, but likely
a mix of snow and rain in the lower elevation areas Friday
afternoon. Snow accumulations will be very light to none. The
fast northwest flow (NW winds 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph)
should keep most of the snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario
and by late Friday evening the 850mb ridge axis is expected to
move in and allow the winds to back and most of the snow showers
to come to an end.
More seasonable temperatures will be felt on Saturday with
highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s. High pressure looks to
build in before the next round of showers Saturday night into
the latter part of the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mix of lower end VFR and MVFR conditions expected this evening.
A cold front will pass the region around midnight and winds
shift to the NW with CIGS and VSBYs dropping back to MVFR. IFR
will be likely at BGM and ITH late tonight through early Monday
morning. IFR conditions may also impact ELM and AVP for a few
hours tomorrow morning.
LLWS conditions are still expected at AVP until just before
midnight tonight.
Outlook...
Monday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...Occasional restrictions possible along with scattered
rain showers.
Friday...Restrictions possible with scattered snow and rain
showers.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected today, which may
result in isolated flash flooding across Central NY and
Northeast PA. Of larger concern is this rainfall occurring in
Oneida County, particularly across northern Oneida County where
there is still between 6-12 inches of liquid contained within
the very deep snowpack. Warm temperatures are also expected,
coupled with gusty southerly winds and higher humidity. Snow
pack temperatures have risen to 32 degrees and is saturated so
rain will run directly into rivers. The warm rain will also help
accelerate snowmelt during the rainfall. The combination of the
rain and snowmelt is likely to cause flooding in parts of
Oneida County Sunday into Monday. The Fish Creek watershed is of
particular concern for flooding; both east and west branches
and especially from the confluence down through where it empties
into Oneida Lake at Sylvan Beach. However, the tributaries of
the Mohawk River upstream of Delta Lake are also looking to be
of higher concern. There is significant snow-water equivalent
in the headwaters of the branches; a big portion of which will
get sent down the branches of the Mohawk along with runoff from
any rain.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Flood Watch through Monday evening for NYZ009-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJG/MJM
HYDROLOGY...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
916 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front continues to move through the area
overnight, producing a few lingering showers tonight. Then,
drier and cooler air returns for the first half of the work
week. A pair of weak cold fronts pass through on Thursday and
Saturday with limited moisture.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):
- Cold front moving through the area tonight, resulting in a few
lingering showers.
A majority of the shower and thunderstorm activity has moved out
of the area this evening. A strong cold front is currently
located just west of the Columbia and Augusta metro areas as can
be noted in the change in dew points for the areas west. For
example the dew point as of 9 pm at Columbia is 63F, while the
dew point at Newberry has dropped to 46F. Expect this front to
continue trekking east through the rest of the forecast area,
bringing that drier air along with it. As it moves through, a
few lingering showers are possible through midnight or so as
noted in the last few runs of the HRRR model. Don`t anticipate
any shower activity to be too strong as we head into tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
- Near to slightly below normal temperatures on Monday followed
by a warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday with dry conditions.
- Patchy frost possible Monday night, especially in normally
cold and sheltered locations.
The upper low axis will shift across the forecast area on
Monday with continued weak cold advection. Much drier air will
be filtering into the region and be aided by evolving
downsloping flow as the trough axis shifts east of the
mountains. Hi-res CAMS guidance suggest some possible isolated
showers developing across the Pee Dee region and eastern
Midlands with the passage of the upper trough axis but PWATs are
extremely limited with max values around 0.5 inches and MOS
guidance pops very low, therefore have decided to continue with
a dry forecast. Expect a mix of clouds and sun in the morning
with steep lapse rates resulting from 500mb temps around
-22C crossing the area but then clearing is expected through the
afternoon. Temperatures should be much cooler and below normal but
with downsloping flow somewhat offsetting any lingering cold
advection with highs expected in the lower to mid 60s.
Monday night should favor strong radiational cooling conditions
with clear skies and diminishing winds, although there is a bit
of a low level jet early in the evening. Expect lows to fall
into the upper 30s and possible mid 30s in some locations and
some patchy frost cannot be ruled out.
Tuesday features a warming trend with dry conditions as surface
high pressure becomes centered over the forecast area and upper
level ridging builds overhead yielding max temperatures back in
the 70s. The upper level ridge axis shifts east of the region
on Wednesday with the surface ridge also shifting offshore
allowing for a warm advection pattern to develop with
southwesterly flow developing at all levels. This should result
in even warmer high temperatures on Wednesday with deep mixing
under plenty of sunshine and max temperatures expected in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. The next storm system will approach late
Wednesday night as low pressure deepens and lifts into the
upper Midwest driving a cold front through the TN Valley but any
precipitation should remain west of the area through Wednesday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message(s):
- Low rain chances on Thursday and breezy associated with a
passing cold front
- Cooler and drier Friday then a warming trend over the weekend
The extended forecast period features some potentially active
weather early followed by another cool down and then another
weekend warm up.
Ensemble mean 500mb heights are anomalously low in the 10th
percentile with a system moving through the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys and crossing our area Thursday pushing a cold front
through the region. While overall moisture is somewhat limited
there is a band of PWATs over 1 inch (around 150% of normal)
just preceding the front which should be enough to support
scattered showers. Instability is quite low at this time. ECMWF
EFI is showing a signal for stronger winds on Thursday with the
front and strong cold advection Thursday into Thursday night.
Cooler but dry weather is expected on Friday with below normal
highs in the lower to mid 60s.
Ensembles show 500mb flow over the weekend becomes more zonal
with some possible troughing by Sunday over the MS Valley but
too much uncertainty to include any pops on Sunday. A warming
trend is expected over the weekend with temperatures rebounding
into the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hr forecast period.
The more widespread showers and storms have generally moved out
of the area to the north and east although a broken line of
showers may impact OGB through 04z or so. A cold front is very
slowly moving eastward across the forecast area and just west of
Columbia as of 00z. The front will shift east overnight with
southwesterly winds expected around 10 knots or less, supported
by a low level jet which should prevent fog/stratus concerns as
drier air filters into the region. Winds will shift to the west
behind the front and then shift more northwesterly and become
gusty after sunrise as an upper disturbance crosses the region.
Some low VFR cigs expected through the morning hours at
CAE/CUB/OGB but should remain north of AGS/DNL. Gusty winds
continue through the afternoon as skies clear.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR expected through Wednesday then
another front crosses the region on Thursday bringing scattered
showers and possible restrictions.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1119 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will push through Central Pennsylvania
tonight, then a ridge of high pressure will build in from the
Great Lakes early this week. Low pressure will track north of
the region late this week, with the trailing cold front coming
through Pennsylvania Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The threat of severe weather has essentially ended across the
Lower Susq Valley late this evening, as 03Z mesoanalysis shows
the marginal instability/shear parameters have shifted east of
the forecast area.
Fgen forcing beneath a jet streak right entrance region should
produce lingering showers across the eastern part of the
forecast area for much of the night. Latest HRRR indicates
additional rainfall of up to a quarter inch over Lancaster
County. Further west, nothing more than a few sprinkles are
anticipated with the arriving surface cold front.
By late tonight, thermal profiles become cold enough for a few
orographically-driven snow showers over the NW Mtns. No accums
are expected. See no reason to deviate from NBM min temps, which
range from the low 30s over the NW Mtns, to around 50F over the
Lower Susq Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A few orographic snow showers could linger until just after 12Z
Monday over the NW Mtns/Laurels Highlands. Likewise, a few rain
showers associated with the departing cold front could linger
over the eastern edge of the forecast area until around 14Z.
Surface ridging and dry air building in from the Grt Lks should
result in fair and seasonable weather the rest of Monday.
However, chilly air aloft under an upper level trough should
result in abundant stratocu. Model RH profiles support breaking
clouds from west to east during the late afternoon and early
evening, as the core of coolest air aloft exits the state.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Fair and warm weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday, as
upper level ridging builds over the East Coast and the surface
ridge slips east of PA. EPS mean 850mb temps peak around 10C Wed,
supportive of max temps potentially exceeding 70F over parts of
the area. Breezy/dry conditions could lead to an elevated risk
of fire spread Wed PM.
Medium range guidance supports the chance for a round of
showers with a cold front passage next Thursday. Latest ensemble
plumes indicate rainfall will not be very significant with this
fast-moving front (EPS plumes suggest 0.1 to 0.25 inches).
Blustery and colder conditions are likely behind the front
Thursday night into part of Friday, with scattered rain/snow
showers accompanying the upper trough passage, mainly over the N
and W Mtns.
Latest EPS and GEFS track a weakening shortwave across the
state next Saturday, which could be accompanied by scattered,
light rain showers. Low amplitude ridging behind this feature
currently looks to supply fair and seasonable weather next
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front still progressing across central Pennsylvania this
evening, with broad band of rain showers and a few gusty tstorms
in vicinity of MDT/LNS. Other bands of lighter showers sliding
in from the west associated with an upper trough which, after a
couple hour period of VFR conditions at each terminal will
bring widespread MVFR ceilings back in for the overnight into
the first half of Monday.
Outlook...
Mon...Windy and colder with clearing skies.
Tue...VFR with lighter winds.
Wed...VFR.
Thu...Showers overspreading the area from west to east.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Lambert/RXR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1031 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather persists through the first half of the week, producing
fire weather issues. A cold front moves across the area Thursday
with little fanfare, producing a quick bout of rain before things
dry out again Friday. Rain returns next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EST Sunday: The main cold front has pushed to the
eastern edge of the forecast area, while a secondary front is
pushing into the NC mountains from the west. Steep mid-level lapse
rates within a deep trough axis is allowing for numerous showers
to form in eastern TN and into the NC mountains. The latest HRRR
actually has some of that activity break containment and spread
across the NC Piedmont, but most other guidance shows little
precip east of the mountains. Based on how dry the low levels are
becoming, expect little to no measurable precip tonight outside the
mountains. Meanwhile, strong CAA and 850 mb flow veering to a better
NW upslope component should result in continued showers along the TN
line overnight. As the colder air moves in, elevation dependent snow
showers develop across the usual NW flow locations. A very light
accumulation is possible across the higher elevations such as the
Smokies and Roan and Beech Mountains. Winds turn NW but diminish
outside of the mountains, although an occasional low end gust will
be possible. Gusty NW winds continue through the night across the
mountains. Lows as much as 5 degrees below normal expected across
the mountains, near normal from the Upper Savannah River Valley,
through GSP to HKY, and up to 5 degrees above normal for CLT Metro.
NW flow showers end quickly after daybreak with mostly sunny skies
elsewhere. That said, some clouds may break containment and spread
SE across the area during the morning. Gusty N to NW winds continue
into the afternoon before high pressure moves in with a relaxing
pressure gradient. Highs around 5 degrees below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 104 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1) A warmup begins on Tuesday with temperatures climbing back to
at least normal, possibly warmer.
2) Fire weather will be a concern on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Not much change to the short term forecast today.
By Monday night, surface ridging will be maximized over the
western Carolinas on the northern periphery of a broad maritime
high pressure. A wide diurnal range appears likely Monday night and
Tuesday as radiative cooling overnight combined with the lingering
aftereffects of postfrontal CAA permits lows to drop into the 30s
Tuesday morning, before climbing back into the 70s Tuesday afternoon
amid increasing thicknesses aloft and a gradual switch to S winds.
Fire weather will be the biggest concern through the short term. A
significant dry layer as low as 950mb will remain in place on
Tuesday even as any postfrontal inversion erodes, allowing dry
air to mix down to the surface in many locations and supporting
critical RHs as low as 15-20% across much of the forecast area.
Despite flow becoming southerly and weakly warm advective late
Tuesday, synoptic forcing will be anemic and thus virtually no
moisture transport will take place through Wednesday. So, lows
Wednesday morning will be 12- 15 degrees warmer than on Tuesday,
but it`ll be just as dry Wednesday afternoon, and breezier as WAA
really picks up steam. So, fire weather could be an even bigger
issue Wednesday, especially since fuels will be getting drier by
this point.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1) A cooldown is expected Thursday and Friday, before a return to
warmer conditions over the weekend.
2) Rain is expected on Thursday and again on Saturday, though with
little impact currently expected.
3) Fire weather could be an issue on Friday.
Still looks like we can expect increasing clouds Wednesday night,
followed by rain on Thursday morning. Models are coming into better
agreement that as a cold front pushes across the eastern U.S.,
a narrow ribbon of rain will slide across the area from early
Wednesday morning through sometime Thursday...but QPF is also
still fairly tame, and none of the operational guidance depicts
any meaningful instability, so no thunder either.
Then on Friday it`s back to fire weather - southern stream high
pressure will build back into the area, and critical RHs should
develop again behind the front alongside breezy conditions.
Drying will be short lived, though, as we quickly wind up back in
a WAA regime ahead of the next system digging out of the Plains.
Expect this system to bring another round of rain to the area
beginning Saturday, but confidence is low on timing and whether
any instability will develop in the warm sector to promote thunder.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Cold front has just passed east of KCLT
in time for the 00z TAF. Expect the SW winds to become light and
lose gusts around start of TAF, except for a while longer at KAND
and KHKY. Mainly high-based stratocu or altocu expected across the
area tonight, except potential MVFR cigs from upslope clouds from
the NW at KAVL overnight. Winds will toggle to NW at all sites
overnight, as a secondary front passes by, then become gusty with
mixing Monday morning and continue thru the aftn. Skies should
largely clear out Monday aftn.
Outlook: Dry high pressure remains through Wednesday. A weak cold
front may bring scattered showers and associated restrictions on
Thursday. Dry high pressure returns Friday.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ARK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
814 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible across
western and north central Nebraska Monday afternoon into the
early evening hours.
- Very warm temperatures Monday with near record highs.
- A weather system will impact the central plains Tuesday into
Wednesday. Strong winds will accompany this system, however,
precipitation amounts and precipitation modes are still in
doubt.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 813 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Westerly winds have diminished and relative humidity values have
improved this evening which has allowd the Red Flag Warning to
expire. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Monday
afternoon due to low RH and strong winds.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
H5 analysis this morning had a trough of low pressure which
extended from Minnesota south into eastern Texas. Within this
trough, a strong shortwave trough extended from southern
Illinois south into western Mississippi. East of this trough,
ridging extended from Bermuda north into the Canadian Maritimes.
West of the trough, ridging was present from eastern Nevada,
north into the Idaho Panhandle. West of this ridge, a trough of
low pressure was present from the Gulf of Alaska south to
approximately 700 miles off the coast of northern California. At
the surface this afternoon, a warm front extended from eastern
South Dakota into central Nebraska. This boundary, served as a
wind shift line with westerly winds to the west and southerly
winds to the east of this feature. Skies were clear to mostly
clear this afternoon and 2 PM CT temperatures ranged from 50
degrees at O`Neill to 60 degrees at Ogallala.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Fire weather concerns and temperatures will be the main
forecast concerns over the first 36 hours of the forecast.
Ridging, currently over the western CONUS will transition east
over the next 24 hours, becoming anchored over the central and
northern Plains Monday afternoon. Surface low pressure will
develop overnight over northern South Dakota, leading to
westerly winds across the forecast area. Overnight lows will
bottom out in the lower to middle 30s with some readings near 40
in the north where winds may persist into the early morning
hours Monday. Surface low pressure will track southwestern
Minnesota Monday. Westerly winds will continue Monday with a
nice low level thermal ridge building into the area. With decent
mixing, downslope winds and H85 temps in the mid to upper
teens, highs should reach well into the mid to upper 70s with a
possible 80 degree reading in the south. This would be near a
record high for North Platte and Broken Bow with their daily
records of 82 and 83 respectively. The high res models, most
notably the 12z HRRR is indicating min RH around 10 percent
across the entire forecast area Monday afternoon. Wind gusts to
around 30 MPH appear likely along the SD/NE border per the HRRR
soln with 25 MPH gusts possible north of I-80. Further south,
winds are lighter and should remain below RFW criteria. With
this in mind, will hoist a fire weather watch for tomorrow late
morning into the early evening hours for areas north of
Interstate 80. A cold front will enter northern Nebraska Monday
night stalling across central or southern Nebraska on Tuesday.
Mid level lift will increase behind the front Monday night and
will mainly impact locations to the north of the forecast area.
However, some precipitation may develop along the Pine Ridge
late Monday night and have a slight chance mention of rain or
snow over far northern Sheridan County.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The cold front will slowly migrate south into northern Kansas
and southeast Nebraska on Tuesday. Mid level forcing will
continue across the northwestern forecast area where some light
accumulating snow will fall. Elsewhere, light rain will be
possible in the west Tuesday morning with the threat
transitioning east Tuesday afternoon. Forcing will then
strengthen Tuesday night as surface low pressure deepens along
the front. This feature will then track across northern Kansas
into southwestern Iowa by Wednesday morning. A nice area of
deformation precipitation will develop from south central
Nebraska/northern Kansas into southeastern and eastern Nebraska
Wednesday. Temperatures behind the front will be cold enough to
support snow. It will also be very windy across the area.
Already the EC and GEFS ensemble winds have a good threat for
gusts above 50 MPH (>70% across a large portion of the CWA) with
the strongest winds generally over the eastern third of the
state. The latest NAM soln has a core of 75 KT H85 winds
extending from west of Beatrice to Blair Nebraska Wednesday
morning. The GFS is more "subdued" at 65 KTS. This is also INVOF
the deformation band of snow Wednesday. No doubt if the winds
even approach these levels, the combination of wind and snow
will lead to blizzard conditions in eastern Nebraska. For
western and north central Nebraska, all models, with the
exception of the latest NAM12 soln, keep most snow east and
south of the forecast area, effectively bypassing the forecast
area with minimal accumulations. The is also supported by the
latest ensemble blend of models which has the highest QPF`s off
to the south and southeast of the forecast area. We will need to
monitor snow potential with this system closely as even a
limited amount of snow could cause significant visibility and
travel issues given the expected high winds. Behind the exiting
system, readings will rebound back into the 50s and 60s for the
end of the week. A couple of weak fast moving systems will bring
a limited threat for precipitation Friday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
VFR conditions with just some mid/high clouds expected over TAF
sites through Monday but there will be gusty winds and low
level wind shear to contend with.
Currently still seeing some gusty conditions but anticipate they
will slacken quickly as diurnal heating wanes and mixing
diminishes. Will indicate prevailing with no gusts though would
not be overly surprising for a gust or two through the first
hour of the valid period. Surface winds will become light early
tonight while winds aloft amplify considerably with low level
wind shear through late tonight and into Monday morning
especially at KVTN which will be closer to the axis of strong
westerly/southwesterly winds moving from southwest SD through
central NE with potential for a surface gusts from time to time
at KVTN. Low level wind shear will diminish with onset of rapid
heating and good mixing Monday morning with gusty winds reaching
the surface by mid morning. Expect westerly gusts will be around
35kt at KVTN but winds diminish quickly heading further to the
south so gusts are expected to remain below 25kt at KLBF. Gusty
conditions will continue through the afternoon before
diminishing quickly toward sunset.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for NEZ204-206-208-209.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Kulik
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...MBS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
634 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very dry and breezy conditions this afternoon.
- Next cold frontal passage expected Wednesday. With limited
moisture, precipitation chances remain very low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Wx map shows 1021 mb surface high pressure centered over North
Texas building southeast. Northwest winds around 15-20 mph with
gusts to 25-30 mph common this afternoon. Temperatures in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Very dry air continues to advect across
the area this afternoon, with dewpoints ranging through the 20s.
This is yielding afternoon relative humidity values in the 15-20%
range. NBM forecasted dewpoints have performed very poorly in
handling this dry air yesterday and again this afternoon. The
winner is the HRRR by a longshot, and was used exclusively for
this afternoon`s dewpoint and relative humidity forecasts.
For tonight, the center of the surface high will settle over the
area. Expect winds to diminish to light and variable this evening,
likely calm overnight. With the clear skies, excellent radiational
cooling expected with lows near 40/lower 40s north of I-10, mid to upper
40s further south.
For Monday, the surface high expected to shift east by late morning
into the afternoon hours, with light southeast winds returning.
Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s expected.
Monday night through Tuesday night, an upper level trough over the
Western U.S. will move east across the Midwest. This will generate
a surface low just east of the Rockies, gradually strengthening
Tuesday and Tuesday night. The flow off the Gulf will increase low
level dewpoints significantly, as well as southerly winds on
Tuesday. This will also yield a warming trend most noticeable
during the overnight periods.
08/DML
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Another upper level disturbance and cool front to bring low end
chances of showers by Wednesday afternoon, followed by cooler and
drier air Wednesday night through Friday. A warming trend expected
by the weekend.
08/DML
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025
VFR/SKC to prevail through the period. Gusty NW winds will
diminish by sunset, becoming light overnight as high pressure
moves over the region. Winds will become southerly 6-12 KT by
late Monday morning as the high shifts east.
24
&&
.MARINE...
Elevated northwest winds and seas, especially for the outer waters
east of Cameron, will continue this afternoon and diminish this
evening and overnight as surface high pressure settles over the
coastal waters. East to southeast winds are expected to return by
Monday afternoon as the surface high moves east. By Tuesday, a
surface low will form east of the Rockies, increasing southerly
winds over the coastal waters. This will be followed by another
cold front on Wednesday, bringing breezy and gusty offshore flow
to the coastal waters through Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions are expected for the next couple of days over the region.
Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will be in the 15-20% range
this afternoon, and 25-30% for Monday afternoon. Gusty northwest winds
will continue this afternoon, diminishing this evening and overnight
as the center of high pressure moves overhead. Extra caution should
be taken for any outdoor burning.
08/DML
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 41 74 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 46 73 54 74 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 44 74 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 50 74 58 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ472.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ475.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
449 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.
&&
.AVIATION...17/00Z TAFs...A front is bringing a band of moderate to
heavy precipitation over central and eastern portions of the area
this evening (from near the Cascades east) with showers moving into
the area behind this band. Strong, gusty winds will at Medford
(KMFR) and Klamath Falls will gradually lower early this evening
after 01Z. Areas further east in Lake and Modoc counties (including
Alturas), will continue to see strong winds through the evening.
Snow levels will lower on the backside of this band, with snow
expected to develop at Klamath Falls (KLMT) this evening. Scattered
showers filling in behind this band will increase late tonight and
Monday morning and may bring a period of rain and snow to areas west
of the Cascades, including Medford (KMFR) and Grants Pass areas.
Widespread MVFR conditions and local IFR conditions are expected to
continue into Monday morning, then transition to VFR with local MVFR
Monday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 309 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025/
SYNOPSIS...A strong atmospheric river is currently impacting
southern Oregon and northern California. This atmospheric river
will end tonight and a front will push through bringing snow
levels down. Unsettled weather returns midweek.
Key Points:
*Significant flooding is occurring along the coast and in Douglas
and Josephine Counties due to the excess rainfall.
*Rain will continue through 5 pm tonight for these areas, and 7 pm
for areas west of the Cascades. The front coming through again at
9 pm will bring new rain, but much lower rates to these areas
with lowering snow levels.
*Snow levels will lower to around 2000 feet by Monday morning and
could rise to around 3000 feet during the day with ongoing
showers.
*Heavy snow is still occurring in the southern Oregon Cascades
today and will continue this evening.
DISCUSSION...First and foremost, make sure you are taking
precautions to stay safe, and do not cross flooded roadways. This
system has been providing more twists than an M. Night Shyamalan
movie as precipitation has come in heavier than previously
thought. The biggest twist at this point is that the heavy
precipitation is causing snow levels to lower to valley floors at
Roseburg, Sutherlin, and Camas Mountain. Other areas where the
rain has been moderate has been rain.
At some point, the HRRR is showing a dry slot to create a break in
the rain, generally around 5 pm for the coast and the Umpqua in
Douglas County, and then by 7 pm for most areas west of the
Cascades. After the dry slot, a front will push through the area
tonight from the northwest with much colder weather, and snow
levels will drop from 5000 ft to around 2000 ft. At this point, we
may have some valley floor snow (20% chance), but accumulating
valley floor snow remains unlikely (10% or less).
Snow showers will continue through Monday with snow levels rising
to around 3000 feet to the day before dropping again in the
evening when the showers taper off. Light showers will continue at
the coast and in the Umpqua much of Tuesday morning and should
finally end by Tuesday evening.
The next system makes its way to the Pacific Northwest on
Wednesday, bringing light to moderate rain (much less than we`re
seeing now)with snow levels fluctuating between 3000 feet at
night and 4000 feet during the day. Winds may also be breezy in
their usual spots, like the Shasta Valley.
The unsettled weather will likely continue through the end of the
week with additional systems moving through. Still, none of these
systems appear to be as robust or wet as the one that is going
through our area now. Keep an eye to the forecast as things are
changing relatively rapidly. -Schaaf
MARINE...Updated 245 AM Saturday, March 16, 2025...Wind speeds are
expected to diminish this afternoon and turn to be from the west.
However, the very steep and hazardous seas will continue through the
early evening. Seas will gradually diminish, but will remain steep
through at least Monday afternoon. Active weather could return
midweek and bring further unsettled conditions starting Wednesday as
strong southerly winds build steep seas once again.
-Schaaf/Guerrero
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Monday for ORZ027>031.
Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ021>026.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ031.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
Monday for ORZ023-025.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ029-030.
CA...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Monday for CAZ080-082-083.
Flood Watch until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ080.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ081-084-
085.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
Monday for CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT this
afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-
376.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
959 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front slowly moves across the area tonight into
Monday, pushing offshore Monday evening. High pressure takes
over thereafter and remains into Wednesday. A fast moving
frontal system moves across the area Thursday into Thursday
night. High pressure begins to build back into the area on
Friday and should remain in control next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A line of convection across eastern PA and upstate NY along a
prefrontal trough will continue to weaken as it pushes east
towards the area this evening. Strong onshore flow will push
stable maritime air inland as the this convection pushes east.
The latest SPC mesoanalysis indicated no surface instability
over the area, which also gives confidence the line will
continue to weaken as it approaches.
The prefrontal trough and associated cold front will move into
the region tonight. There will still be showers and embedded
elevated thunder with the aforementioned weakening convective
line, but it appears a resurgence of showers will occur from
southwest to northeast across the area with strengthening low
level jet in combination with increasing upper divergence from a
an approaching jet streak to our northwest. This will likely
induce a weak wave of the frontal boundary, which will increase
convergence and lift overnight.
While shower activity will initially be limited early this
evening, moderate to locally heavy showers are expected to
increase in coverage late this evening into the overnight hours.
PWATs range anywhere from 1.3-1.6 inches supporting potential
for some locally heavy downpours. Still think a few rumbles of
thunder are possible, but elevated instability is minimal
overnight. HRRR has indicated a marginal MUCAPE even across
eastern Long Island overnight, so will mention slight chance of
thunder there as well. The heaviest rain may shift east of the
NYC metro by early Monday morning with a steadier stratiform
rain from the city on NW.
Peak rainfall rates from 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour seem most
likely although a few downpours could briefly be a bit
higher up to 1 inch per hour. The main concern tonight into
early Monday will be from minor urban and poor drainage
flooding. Eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut stand
the best shot at seeing a longer duration of heavier downpours,
so cannot completely rule out a localized instance of flash
flooding here. Rainfall totals around 1.5" to 2.50" are
forecast, highest across eastern portions of the area. Locally
higher amounts cannot be ruled out where the heaviest downpours
occur.
Following the exit of the line of rain with the surface trough
by Monday morning, periods of spotty showers could continue
across the area into Monday afternoon before the cold front
officially passes later on Monday, leading to drier air finally
advecting in under a NW wind by evening.
Southerly winds this evening into the first half of tonight
could gusts up to 30-35 mph, locally up to 40 mph. Winds will
subside overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes and low level
jet shifts east of the area. The inversion influence by the
onshore flow and slightly cooler boundary layer after sunset
should also help limit peak wind gusts to just below advisory
levels.
Low temperatures tonight will remain mild and well-above
average in the low to mid 50. Highs on Monday will continue
above normal in the mid-50s to near 60 with any colder air
arriving late and Monday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure takes over tomorrow night as an upper-level
trough centers itself over the area. Clouds will begin to clear
west to east due an exiting cold front. Much colder air will
fall in line behind the front tomorrow night. Low are expected
to drop into the 30s, with a few near or just below freezing in
the far interior. While much colder than the previous night,
these lows are are quite seasonal for this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:
* Dry conditions will prevail Tuesday into Thursday morning and then
again next weekend with temperatures mainly above average.
* Showers become likely late Thursday and Thursday night along a
fast moving frontal system.
* Breezy and cooler conditions briefly return Friday.
The modeling has remained relatively consistent over the last few
days with the overall pattern progression into next weekend.
The upper trough that slowly moves overhead on Monday will slide
offshore Tuesday morning. This is in response to a build upper
ridge. The upper low is still expected to get trapped beneath the
ridge over the western Atlantic into Wednesday. This will not
directly impact our weather, but could enhance subsidence with the
ridging aloft later Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper ridging pushes
offshore on Thursday ahead of the next upper level trough, which
likely lifts over the area Thursday night into Friday. The ensemble
means then indicate a mostly zonal flow for next weekend.
Surface high pressure will be in control Tuesday and Wednesday
before moving offshore on Thursday. The aforementioned upper trough
will send a fast moving frontal system across the area late Thursday
into Thursday night. The latest model consensus indicates most of
the daytime Thursday will be dry with just a chance of showers late
in the afternoon. The cold front sweeps across the area Thursday
night with the likelihood of showers. Low pressure may develop along
the front as it passes to our east and help add more lift and
moisture for the continuation of showers into early Friday morning.
Guidance has come into better agreement with this scenario, but
differ on the intensity of the low. The progressive pattern would
favor the low to quickly push off the New England coast Friday
morning. The NBM probabilities for greater than an inch of rain in a
12 or 24 hour period Thursday into Thursday night remain low and
under 10 percent, consistent with the speed of the system. The
potential of low pressure on the front may bring a possibility of
some wet snow flakes mixing in well inland as the system pulls away
and draws colder air southward.
Breezy and cooler conditions are expected on Friday under strong
cold advection and a W-NW flow. Temperatures look to remain in the
mid and upper 40s for highs which are slightly below average for
March 21st. Winds will likely gust 25-35 mph. The pressure gradient
should relax Friday night with high pressure returning for the
remainder of the weekend. Have kept the forecast dry next weekend
with a mainly zonal flow aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure and a cold front approach from the west into this
evening, with the cold front moving into the terminals late
tonight into Monday morning as a wave of low pressure develops
along the front. The frontal wave and cold front will move east
Monday afternoon.
Conditions still vary across the region, with LIFR cond closer
to the coast at KJFK/KISP/KGON/KHPN and MVFR elsewhere. Bands of
showers should start to fill in from the south, bringing several
hours of IFR vsby in moderate to locally heavy rain tonight
especially E of the NYC metros. S winds gusting to 25-30 kt and
LLWS (S flow 50-60 kt at FL020) will also continue through most
of tonight along with this activity.
Showers gradually taper off late tonight into Mon morning, but
conditions could remain IFR/LIFR as winds diminish and become
variable with slow passage of the front and wave of low
pressure. Improvement on Mon will be slow to occur, with MVFR
from late morning into early afternoon at the NYC metros hanging
on through the rest of the day. IFR cond may last at KBDR/KISP
into late afternoon and at KGON through the period.
As the cold front and frontal wave move into the region, winds
and gusts will diminish, and may for a time even become variable
less than 10 kt. Timing of these diminishing winds remains
somewhat uncertain. As the front passes east, winds shift to
the W and then NW-N, gusting to 20-25 kt late in the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Unscheduled AMD likely to address changes in flight categories
and timing of rain and wind shifts.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night: VFR at the NYC terminals and west, MVFR/IFR east
early in the evening, becoming VFR throughout. NW-N winds
G20-25kt.
Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: IFR/LIFR cigs possible in the morning mainly E of the
NYC metros. Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible. S winds
10-15 kt with G20-25 kt, winds shifting W during the evening.
Friday: VFR at the NYC terminals and west, MVFR/IFR east with
showers ending late in the day, becoming VFR throughout. NW
wind 15-20 kt with G20-30kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A strong cold front impacts the waters into Monday. There may be
some fog this evening, but visibilities should remain above 1
nm. Any fog will improve late this evening into the overnight
once showers become widespread.
S winds will continue to gust to 25-30 kt this evening on the
waters and then should increase tonight as a stronger low level
jet passes over the waters. While a strong inversion will be
in place, winds beneath may approach gales on the ocean and the
eastern Sound. For this reason a gale warning is in effect into
early Monday morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
elsewhere through tonight. SCA conditions will continue on the
ocean through Monday night due to elevated seas.
Winds on all waters should remain below SCA levels Tuesday through
much of Thursday. Ocean seas will remain elevated at or above 5 ft
during this period mainly due to lingering SE swells. The next chance
for SCA winds will be Thursday night behind a cold front passage.
There is also potential for gales on the waters on Friday under a
strong NW flow and cold advection over the warmer waters. Seas will
remain elevated to end the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall of 1.5-2.5 inches expected into early Monday, with the
higher amts across eastern Long Island and SE CT.
Nuisance flooding is the main concern.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ331-335-338-
345.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ332-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ340.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR/DS
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
519 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.UPDATE...A winter weather advisory was issued through 11 PM owing
to a much snowier situation than previously anticipated. Ongoing
ascent ahead of disturbance with its dry slot apparant on water
vapor has resulted in 1-3 inches near Bend late morning-early
afternoon. This window of moderate snow is anticipated to persist
through 7/8 PM based on satellite trends and hi-res guidance,
including the SPC HREF showing persistent snowfall early this
evening. Of note, the last six HRRR runs has shown good agreement
and handling of recent trends with forecasts supporting snow
tapering off beginning 3 UTC that further increased confidence to
issue the headline. Otherwise, much of the forecast looked on
track outside central OR with little adjustments made there.
Otherwise, no other changes. Winter Storm Warnings for the
Northern Blues Mountains of Oregon and the East Slopes of the
Oregon Cascades will remain until 11 PM PST this evening as well.
Additional snow accumulations for the Northern Blues above 4500
feet will be 2 to 4 inches, affecting primarily north of I-84
corridor, Highway 204 and north. Likewise with the East Slopes of
the Oregon Cascades. Make sure to slow down and use caution when
traveling in these areas. 80/97
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFs...Aviation concerns revolving around linger
winter weather in central OR where IFR flight categories continue
to prevail; elsewhere VFR conditions are expected to persist.
Latest satellite imagery shows best ascent ongoing and focused
across central OR ahead where robust radar returns are evident in
southwest OR. Dynamic cooling has resulted in changeover to snow
early today over central OR with KBDN and KRDM report 1/2SM snow
at times this afternoon. Current thinking based on trends and last
6 runs of the HRRR support light to moderate snow threat will
continue into 2-3 UTC before tapering off thereafter. Next concern
will be potential for fog there in the overnight hours, however,
confidence in the severity is low (30%) but thinking IFR-MVFR
categories cannot be ruled out. Improvement to VFR with higher
ceilings looks increasing possible 21 UTC onward at KBDN and KRDM.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions should prevail with with a decreasing
sky cover tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, increasing breezes
tomorrow afternoon with sustained winds generally 10-15 kts and
occasional gusts.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM PDT Sun Mar 16 2025/
SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...
Key Messages:
1. Significant Snowfall over the Cascades and Blues tonight.
*Winter Storm Warnings Active*
2. Lingering mountain snow and lower elevation rain Monday.
3. Breezy winds along the east slopes and foothills Monday.
Current radar and visible satellite imagery shows light to
moderate returns extending from the Oregon Cascades to the
northern Blue Mountains under overcast skies. This is in response
to a cold front slowly passing through the region today ahead of
the upper level trough and a reinforcing cold front that will pass
over the area on Monday. The Atmospheric River that has lead to
substantial snowfall across the Cascades and northern Blue
Mountains today will slowly drop to our south and dissipate
through this evening. Additional snow amounts of 3 to 8 inches
across the Oregon Cascades and 2 to 4 inches of snowfall over the
northern Blue Mountains above 4500 feet are anticipated through
this evening as a Winter Storm Warning is in effect until 11 PM
for both areas. Confidence in these snow amounts is high (80-90%)
as the NBM advertises an 80-90% chance of 6 inches or more
snowfall over the Oregon Cascades and a 75-85% chance of 2 or more
inches of snowfall across the northern Blue Mountains. Light
rainfall will also taper off through the evening and overnight
period across the Blue Mountain foothills and Central Oregon as
snow levels slowly drop to between 2000-3000 feet into Monday
morning as cold air advects into the area behind the cold front
that pushes to our southeast. This will relate to Monday morning
temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s over Central
Oregon and in the low to mid-30s over the Blue Mountain foothills
and Lower Columbia Basin. Rain amounts of 0.50-0.75" is
anticipated across Central Oregon, 0.25-0.50" over north-central
Oregon, and 0.10-0.20" along the Blue Mountain foothills this
evening.
The upper level trough axis will slide over the area Monday
morning as a weak cold front also pushes through associated with
flow aloft shifting from the northwest. This will increase
mountain snow and lower elevation rain chances through the morning
before becoming more confined along the Cascade and Blue Mountains
through the remainder of the day. An additional 3-6 inches of
snowfall is expected over the Oregon Cascades and northern Blue
Mountains above 4000 feet Monday, with an additional 1-4 inches
across the Washington Cascades above 4500 feet. Confidence in
these snow totals is best (85%) over the Oregon Cascades as the
NBM suggests an 80-90% chance of 4 inches of snow or more, and
more marginal (50%) across the northern Blue Mountains as the NBM
highlights a 40-60% chance of 4 inches of snow or more on Monday.
Snow levels will hover between 2000-3000 feet as lower elevations
will receive 0.05-0.15" along the Blue Mountain foothills, and
0.01-0.05" through Central Oregon, Gorge, and the Lower Columbia
Basin.
The weak cold front passing on Monday will attribute to breezy
west-northwest winds across the east slopes of the Washington
Cascades, Simcoe Highlands, Kittitas Valley, and the Southern Blue
Mountain foothills. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to
35 mph will be possible, peaking between 5 PM Monday and 2 AM
Tuesday. Confidence in these wind values is high (80-90%) as the
NBM shows a 85-95% chance of gusts reaching 35 mph or greater
Monday, with a 35-45% chance of gusts reaching advisory-level (45
mph or greater). High temperatures will stay consistent through
the period in the mid-40s across Central Oregon and in the low to
mid-50s over the Blue Mountain foothills and Lower Columbia Basin
each day, which is 2-5 degrees cooler than normal. Morning low
temperatures will drop slightly by 1-3 degrees between Monday and
Tuesday morning as an upper level ridge moves over the region
Tuesday to provide drier conditions over our mountain zones
through the afternoon. 75
LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
Bottom Line Up Front
1. Wet and unsettled weather
2. Daytime breezy conditions
The long term will consist of unsettled wet weather. We will begin
the period with a very brief upper level ridge that will be quickly
overtaken by the first upper level low in the long term Wednesday
night and persisting through Friday. Yet another upper level trough
will follow on the first systems heels bringing more precipitation
to the area through Saturday. A shortwave will then makes its way
across the region Sunday bringing precipitation primarily to the
mountains. We are in for a long wet wave train through the long term.
Models are in relatively firm agreement with the onslaught of
systems that will beginning Wednesday night and continually impacting
the PacNW through Sunday. Looking at the raw ensembles, 24 hour snow
accumulation probabilities for 4-5 inches Wednesday through Thursday
night, 40-60% probabilities for the upper slopes of the WA Cascades,
5-8 inches at 70-90% probabilities for the OR Cascades and lastly, 3-
5 inches at 60-70% for the Blues of OR & WA all above 3000 feet.
Moving to Friday through Saturday night we have 35-50% probabilities
of 7+ inches of snow along the upper slopes of the WA Cascades, 60-
70% for 8+ inches for the OR Cascades and 40-60% for 7+ inches in
the Blues of WA & OR. The upper level systems shift a bit Sunday
allowing for a bit of a reprieve from all the snowfall leaving the
mountains with less than 20% probabilities for an additions 2 inches
of snow. Moving on to the lower elevations under 3000 feet, 24 hour
rainfall accumulations show there to be 30% probabilities of 0.05
inches of precipitation through the Basin, 40-50% probabilities
along the foothills of the Blue mountains of OR and WA, 40-50% for
central and north central OR and the Gorge Wednesday through
Thursday. Probabilities increase Friday to 40-60% across all areas
before tapering of back to 40-60% probabilities Sunday. Its going
to be a wet week.
Lastly each system will bring a slight tightening of the pressure
gradients as each front passes over the region. Daytime sustained
winds will be the typical spring flow with 60-80% of the raw
ensembles showing gusts to 20-25 mph, especially in our wind prone
areas such as the Simcoe Highlands, the Gorge and the foothills of
the southern Blues. However, Wednesday, surface models at the
surface do show a tightening of the gradients between Baker and
Meacham which will lead to elevated winds through the Grande Ronde
Valley. While the gradient change isn`t strong, it is elevated to
near 4 mb in change and will lead to some gusty winds along the
corridor through the valley. 50-70% of the raw ensembles are already
picking up on gusts above 40 mph through the area. Bennese/90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 34 50 33 51 / 40 50 20 20
ALW 36 49 33 49 / 40 50 40 30
PSC 34 56 34 56 / 10 10 10 0
YKM 29 53 29 53 / 0 10 0 0
HRI 35 55 34 55 / 30 40 10 10
ELN 29 49 29 50 / 0 10 10 0
RDM 28 44 25 46 / 80 50 20 10
LGD 30 44 29 42 / 70 60 40 40
GCD 29 43 27 41 / 90 60 50 50
DLS 36 52 36 54 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ502-509.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ511.
WA...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....90
AVIATION...80
UPDATE...80/97
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
930 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A powerful storm system will push east and offshore overnight.
Behind this system, high pressure will build into the Southeast
states Monday through Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 PM Sunday...
The threat for strong prefrontal storms continues over much of the
forecast area, as the cold front remains just W of the CWA with
dewpoints still in the upper 50s to upper 60s over much of the area.
Deep layer bulk shear remains high, 80-90 kts, over the W half of NC
out ahead of the incoming mid level trough, although the better low
level shear and SRH has shifted E of I-95 where low level flow has a
more SSE component yielding curved hodographs and where a low-end
tornado threat persists. Further W, over most of our area,
hodographs are long and linear with roughly unidirectional vertical
shear, and as a result we`ve seen more of a hail and straight line
wind threat recently. After a robust left-mover that dropped large
hail in the Triad earlier, the more recent storms have been a bit
weaker, with the better SPC and STP having shifted E of the CWA. But
given the surface dewpoints still elevated, with high shear and
residual 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in portions of the E Piedmont and
Sandhills that have been less worked-over than areas to the W and E
in the last several hours, storms may remain quite strong for
another few hours, until the front shifts E through central NC, most
likely between now and 08z. Will keep high pops until then, ending
them W to E into the overnight hours. Temps have been running warmer
than the forecast pace, but still think we`ll have predawn lows in
the mid-upper 40s W and 50s central/E as the cooler air arrives
behind the front. -GIH
Previous discussion from 321 PM: Lack of instability has really
hampered hazards thus far today. Other than a few stronger gusts at
KINT/KGSO, the stronger gradient winds aloft have struggled to mix
down to the sfc. Expect gusts of 20 to 30 mph (perhaps a few
isolated stronger gusts along and east of I-95) to continue the next
several hours before winding down from west to east through early
tonight. Winds will remain stirred overnight, but an uptick in post-
frontal gustiness will likely hold off till after sunrise.
In addition to a lack of strong gradient gusts, storm-induced gusts
have also not produced much damage thus far. There remains some
uncertainty wrt to severe threats this afternoon, but given the
strong shear in place, still can`t rule out any stronger damaging
wind gusts with any deeper convection. Expecting some additional
coverage to continue to blossom along and east of US-1 over the next
several hours, followed by an additional line of showers/storms
moving in from the west along the actual cold front later this
evening. The tornadic parameters for the remainder of this event are
most concerning for those east of US-1 the next several hours.
However, with time, hodographs straighten out in this vicinity and
the tornado threat should shift towards the coast.
Flooding wise, the HREF LPMM field and some recent HRRR runs are
showing the potential for isolated QPF of 3 to 5 inches in the
Coastal Plain. However, given the high FFG in these areas, it could
be challenging to generate more than isolated flash flooding in
urban areas. Additionally, the 12Z HREF probabilities for exceeding
3hrly FFG are quite low (10 to 20%). As such, decided to just
highlight isolated flash flooding potential this afternoon and
evening primarily for urban areas along and east of US-1.
The evening line of showers/storms will generally weaken with
eastward extent/time this evening/early overnight. However, given
instability has already increased in our western areas, can`t rule
out a stronger storm further west as well. The threat would largely
be damaging wind gusts/hail with any stronger cells out west this
evening. Given that the PWAT field will largely remain anomalous
through early to mid Monday morning, lingering showers will be
possible through sunrise.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...
The main moisture axis associated with Sunday`s storms will have
moved mostly east of our area by Monday morning. Some lingering
showers may be possible early Monday in the far east, but should
quickly dissipate/exit as flow aloft turns nwly and much drier air
spills in. For the rest of Monday, expect a decent deck of stratocu
to expand east across central NC before dissipating Monday night.
Additionally, forecast soundings indicate good post-frontal mixing
potential from mid morning through about sunset when we can expect
gusts of 15 to 25 mph at times.
Chilly daytime highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected.
Overnight lows will dip into the lower to mid 30s.
&&.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...
Upper pattern through the extended: Behind the exiting short-wave,
nwly flow aloft will dominate much of Tuesday. Mid-level ridging
will briefly amplify up the eastern seaboard on Wednesday. Beyond
Wednesday flow turns swly upstream of an approaching upper trough
poised to move across our area later this week.
Precipitation: Tuesday through Wednesday will remain dry given low
PWAT and wnwly flow aloft. By Thursday, as the flow turns more swly,
we`ll start to see some anomalous PWAT move into our area. Ensembles
generally suggest decent probabilities for measurable rain with this
system Thursday into Friday. However, despite decent upper forcing,
ensembles are not super impressed with QPF potential (the 95th
percentile generally only spits out a few tenths to maybe a half
inch). Also, as of now, severe weather parameters appear limited
with this system as well. Dry weather will return Friday with nwly
flow aloft. Models are hinting at perhaps another weak short-wave
possibly generating precipitation Saturday into Sunday as well. Will
carry low POPs during this period.
Temperatures: Except for Wednesday afternoon when ridging aloft
peaks and high temps reach the mid to upper 70s, the extended period
should be relatively cool with highs generally near 70. A post-
frontal cooler day may be possible on Friday with current highs
forecast in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM Sunday...
Below normal confidence in the flight categories for this set of
TAFs. As of 23Z, there is an area of scattered showers across the
eastern half of the forecast area, and a small area of thunderstorms
across southwestern portions of the forecast area that are expected
to expand in coverage and eventually move through RDU/RWI/FAY. A
small area of thunderstorms near INT has moved to the north, and INT
may remain dry through the night. A strong thunderstorm will move
through GSO between now and 01Z, but conditions should be dry after
that. However, have added a 3-5 hour period of prevailing showers
and vicinity thunderstorms at the other 3 TAF sites. MVFR conditions
are likely as the showers move through. Once the rain comes to an
end, a secondary cold front will bring drier air and allow the wind
to veer from the south to the northwest. Gusts up to 25 kt will
develop after sunrise Monday. An isolated shower will also be
possible in RWI Monday morning, but confidence is not high enough to
include in the forecast at this time.
Looking beyond 00Z Tue, VFR conditions will hold through at least
Wed under high pressure. Low level wind shear is possible Wed night,
and clouds will increase ahead of the next system, which may bring
light rain chances Thu, but the risk of sub-VFR conditions will be
low. Gusty winds are likely to return Thu aftn-Fri with VFR
conditions prevailing. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Green/Hartfield
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
933 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
...New UPDATE, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
No major changes to tonight`s forecast were required. Late
evening surface analysis shows NW winds across SE AL & the FL
Panhandle and SW winds predominantly east of the Apalachicola
River. These observations suggests that the reinforcing cold front
is serving as the boundary between this wind directional
"gradient". Expect a surge in NW breezes as this front continues
its eastward push later tonight into early tomorrow morning. A
blend using the latest HRRR with the inherited forecast was used
for inland winds to account. The boundary layer will be way too
churned up to support radiational cooling despite clear skies, so
temperatures must rely on cool-air advection.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
A second, dry cold front is moseying through the region late this
afternoon. This will turn winds more out of the northwest tonight
and Monday as cooler, drier air filters into the region. Below
normal temperatures are expected through the period with lows in the
lower to middle 40s tonight and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Monday afternoon.
Aloft, the longwave H5 trough axis pivots through the region tonight
into Monday morning. At the surface, an area of high pressure
trudges on in from the west and settles over the northern Gulf Coast
during the day Monday. Monday morning will be a bit breezy thanks to
a 925mb northwesterly jet moving along the northern Gulf coast; some
of that mixes down to the surface and will cause winds to gust to 20
to 25 mph at times in the morning. The low-level jet weakens by the
afternoon with winds diminishing to less than 10 mph by the middle
of the afternoon. All those things combine to give us ample sunshine
and temperatures Monday afternoon hanging around 70 degrees, give or
take a few degrees depending on your location.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Upper heights will rebound, and a 500 mb ridge axis will pass east
across the region on Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a surface high
pressure center will pass directly across the service area on
Monday night and Tuesday morning. Given a dry air mass and large-
scale subsidence, look for clear skies and light winds.
In fact, presence of the high pressure center will support ideal
radiational cooling on Monday night. Lows on Tuesday morning will
bottom out in the upper 30s and lower 40s. The colder pockets will
have potential for light frost, and a Frost Advisory may
eventually be needed for a few counties.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The next cold front will push across the region on Wed night and
early Thursday. The time period of southerly return flow in
advance of this front will be short-lived, and moisture return
will not be that impressive. PW values will briefly spike into the
1-1.2 inch range, which is not enough to support deep moist
convection. CAPE will barely budge upward from the x-axis. As
such, only a few weak low-topped showers are expected with this
frontal passage.
Another cool and dry air mass will arrive behind the midweek
front, and the next surface high pressure center will pass
directly across the region on Friday.
A modest return of southerly flow will return next Sunday, as a
weak cold front limps south through Alabama and Georgia.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Mostly clear skies will make for continued VFR conds this TAF
cycle with elevated NW winds. A reinforcing front passing thru the
terminals tonight brings a nocturnal surge, especially at DHN/ABY
via gusts in the 20-25-kt range. Winds temporarily slacken during
the early-morning hrs before becoming breezy late morning into the
aftn. All sites are poised to experience sustained northwesterlies
around 15 kts (frequent gusts near 25 kts) during that time.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 923 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Offshore buoys were reporting sustained west to NW winds 12-15
kts with gusts in excess of 20 kts, 5-ft seas, and a dominant
period of 8 seconds late this evening. A reinforcing cold front is
crossing the western waters as of about 0130Z and cause a surge of
NW breezes approaching gale force later tonight. A blend of the
latest CAMs & HRRR with the inherited forecast was used over the
marine zones through 17Z to increase the sustained winds. A high-
end Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until late Monday
afternoon.
CWF Synopsis: A dry secondary cold front will cross the waters
this evening, followed by a turn to strong or near-gale northwest
breezes. Winds will decrease starting midday Monday, and a high
pressure center will pass across the waters on Tuesday. The next
cold front will cross the waters on Wednesday night. High pressure
will pass by just to the north on Friday and Friday night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
A cold front is in the process of clearing the region this
afternoon. Breezy westerly to northwesterly winds are anticipated in
the wake of the cold front before the winds slowly diminish later
Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Transport winds are forecast
to be the gustiest in the morning at 25-30 mph before subsiding in
the afternoon. Surface high pressure builds over the area Monday
afternoon, providing the region with ample sunshine and drier
conditions. MinRH dropping to critically low levels between 15 to 25
percent across the region Monday afternoon. Mixing heights will
generally be between 3.5-4k feet.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
Flood Warnings are in effect for the Aucilla River at Lamont, and
for the Withlacoochee near Valdosta Skipper Bridge. Minor flooding
is either occurring, or is forecast over the next couple of days.
No additional flooding is expected for the next 7 days. Rainfall
this week will be light.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 45 67 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 47 68 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 42 66 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 44 66 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 46 66 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 46 67 37 76 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 47 66 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ108-112-114-
115.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ Monday for FLZ108-
112-114.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ730-
750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
&&
$$
UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Haner/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Haner