Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/16/25
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Billings MT
856 PM MDT Sat Mar 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds over the foothills west of Billings tonight through
Sunday, strongest Sunday afternoon.
- Very strong wind in the mountains, with locally damaging winds
possible in the higher foothills, Sunday night.
- Moderate to heavy mountain snow expected through Tuesday.
- Another round of rain/snow Monday through Tuesday over the lower
elevations. Best chance for impactful snow is over the
foothills.
&&
.UPDATE...
A weak wave moving through zonal flow was bringing isolated to
scattered rain and snow showers to portions of the area this
evening. Quick reductions in visibility and wind gusts into the
30s mph have accompanied some of the showers. Accumulations are
expected to be light outside of the mountains. Expect the showers
to gradually shift east into the overnight hours as the wave
moves through. Have adjusted PoPs and wind to current trends
through the remainder of the evening and overnight. The current
winter and wind highlites remain in good shape, and will make no
changes to them at this time. STP
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today through Monday night...
Zonal flow is in place across much of the area, ahead of an
approaching upper wave. The chance for precipitation will increase
through the afternoon in the western zones, especially the
mountains. South and west facing slopes of the Absaroka/Beartooths
and Crazy Mountains will see periods of heavy snowfall, beginning
tonight and lasting through Tuesday. A Winter Storm Warning is in
effect for the mountains until 6AM Wednesday with 1 to 2 feet of
snow possible. Not only will there be heavy snow, but there is a
significant risk for strong winds of 60-85 mph. The combination of
heavy snow and blowing snow will result in whiteout conditions
and make recreation in the high country extremely dangerous. Those
with travel plans between Gardiner and Cooke City should expect
travel conditions to become very difficult to impossible.
The chance for precipitation will spread across the area this
evening, from west to east bringing a low chance for a rain/snow
mix. Total accumulations from this disturbance are expected to be
less than a tenth of an inch across the plains.
The aforementioned upper wave will move through the region late
tonight, bringing a surface front and pressure falls with it. In
the wake of this wave passage, an upper trough moving over the
western U.S., will allow for a stream of Pacific moisture and very
strong winds to the region. Strong and gusty winds will begin
late tonight, first for Livingston and Nye, as well as the
Beartooth Foothills. A Wind Advisory will go into effect at 3AM
Sunday for the gaps with gusts of 60-70 mph. The next locations
impacted by strong winds will be the Melville Foothills and
Northern Sweet Grass. A High Wind Warning will go into effect for
these locations at 9AM Sunday, with gusts of 60-70 mph expected.
There is increasing confidence and indications for mountain wave
activity resulting in damaging winds in the Absaroka/Beartooth
mountains, Red Lodge and Beartooth Foothills, Bighorn and Pryor
Mountains, and Sheridan Foothills. The timing for these locations
varies, with the strongest 700mb winds over the Absaroka/Beartooths
starting Sunday afternoon. The latest HRRR run is picking up on
the mountain wave signals, with 80 knots over the mountains. With
a southwest orientation, these winds will quickly move down into
the foothills with strong downward motion. There is uncertainty
with the extent that winds will make it down into the Red Lodge
Foothills, as a result the High Wind Watch remains in effect from
3PM Sunday until 6AM Monday. As for the Sheridan Foothills,
Bighorn and Pryor Mountains, the risk for mountain wave activity
will begin late Sunday afternoon. As a result, the High Wind Watch
remains in effect from 6PM Sunday to 9AM Monday.
Another disturbance will move into the Northern Rockies Monday
bringing an end to the strongest winds. Breezy conditions will
remain across much of the area, with gusts in the 10s to 30s mph
through Monday. The chance for precipitation will again increase
Monday afternoon with the arrival of this system. Currently, there
is uncertainty of the extent of PoPs outside of the mountains,
with models continuing to trend downward in the chance for precip
and the extent of accumulations. For now, there is a low chance
(10-40%) for precipitation across much of the forecast area,
Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Precipitation type will be a
rain/snow mix. As for the foothills, the chance for at least 6
inches of snow is 25-50%.
High temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s to around 60 on
Sunday and in the 40s-50s Monday.
Matos
Tuesday through Saturday...
Trough splits as it moves through the region on Tuesday. This
will keep heaviest snowfall south of the forecast area into
Wyoming, but still bring several inches to zones along the MT/WY
border, especially in the higher elevations. Winds turn
northwesterly and become gusty in the afternoon across the western
half of the forecast area, kickstarting the drying process heading
into Tuesday night.
Ridge builds over the area for Wednesday into Thursday for mainly
dry and breezy conditions. Temperatures will get into the 50s
during this period. Another splitting trof will bring a chance for
precipitation Thursday night into Friday morning. More Pacific
moisture associated with a longwave trof arrives by Saturday
morning for yet another shot of mountain snow and a mix of
rain/snow for the lower elevations. Overall this pattern is
favoring western and southern zones for precipitation during the
extended period, with fairly dry conditions for the northeast.
Chambers
&&
.AVIATION...
In general VFR conditions will prevail into Sunday. A disturbance
crossing the area will bring isolated to scattered rain/snow
showers to the area this evening and into the overnight. Local
MVFR conditions are possible with the showers.
Disturbance exits the area around 09z taking precipitation
chances with it for most locations. Western mountains will
continue to see snowfall through Sunday on mainly west facing
slopes. Expect mountain obscuration for the Beartooth/Absaroka and
Crazy mountains through Sunday.
Winds will increase behind the disturbance tonight for the
western half of the forecast area, with gusts 20 to 30kts at
times. Further east will see surface inversion limit wind speeds
but low level wind shear will be likely including KMLS.
Chambers/STP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/058 040/050 032/046 028/051 032/054 033/054 033/052
41/N 24/R 44/S 20/U 02/R 31/B 13/O
LVM 028/049 035/042 026/037 020/043 027/046 026/044 029/043
54/O 66/S 54/S 20/N 14/S 32/S 35/S
HDN 028/059 038/052 030/046 026/051 026/057 031/054 029/053
31/N 23/R 45/S 30/U 02/R 31/B 14/O
MLS 029/057 037/052 028/046 025/049 026/054 033/053 031/051
30/B 21/E 11/E 10/U 00/B 10/B 01/B
4BQ 028/057 039/054 032/044 026/047 025/053 032/049 029/051
30/B 01/B 53/S 10/U 00/B 21/B 02/R
BHK 022/053 032/051 024/042 018/045 020/051 026/049 025/051
20/B 11/B 21/E 00/U 00/B 11/B 01/B
SHR 023/055 037/053 026/038 019/043 020/050 025/048 024/048
11/B 13/R 87/S 31/U 01/B 31/B 14/O
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late
Sunday night FOR ZONE 56.
Wind Advisory in effect from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM MDT Monday
FOR ZONES 65-66.
Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 AM MDT Monday FOR
ZONES 67-68.
High Wind Watch in effect from Sunday evening through Monday
morning FOR ZONES 138-169-171.
High Wind Warning in effect from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM MDT
Monday FOR ZONES 141-172.
WY...High Wind Watch in effect from Sunday evening through Monday
morning FOR ZONES 198-199.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
933 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through the region Sunday with showers
and thunderstorms and gusty winds. Severe thunderstorms will be
possible. The front will move east of the area Sunday and drier
air will spread across SC/GA through the early week period with
seasonable temperatures. A weak cold front passes through on
Thursday with limited moisture.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):
- Strong cold front moving towards the region into Sunday
morning.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase from west to east
tonight into early Sunday morning.
- Severe threat increases late tonight and through Sunday
morning.
- Lake Wind Advisory now in effect until 8pm Sunday.
Moisture and low level winds continue to increase ahead of a
strong cold front this evening with a line of thunderstorms
entering central AL and into western GA. With this increasing
low level jet and gradient winds ahead of the front, a Lake Wind
Advisory is now in effect until 8pm Sunday where southeasterly
to then southerly winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30-40 mph
are expected outside of any convective gusts throughout Sunday
before diminishing. While we continue to expect to remain mostly
dry into the early overnight, rain chances increase from west
to east after 6-8z and into Sunday morning as the line of
showers and storms approaches. High res model guidance is still
displaying some uncertainty in timing of the line of convection
but with its current progress through AL, looking at the mean
HREF solution, and the most recent WoFS composite reflectivity
paintballs for the domain that just reaches near the western
CWA, current thinking is the line will move into the western
Midlands and CSRA between 8-11z, the Central Midlands between
10-13z, and the eastern Midlands between 12-15z.
Now for the impacts expected. The LLJ looks to increase upwards
of 55-60 kts with 500 mb flow increasing to 65-75 kts as the
upper trough pivots into the SE region toward daybreak. As this
LLJ continues to increase strong moisture advection continues
where dewpoints are expected to continue to raise into Sunday
morning to the low to mid 60s with temperatures in the mid to
upper 60s. With the kinematics in place, strong shear is
expected as forecasted soundings show impressive hodographs with
0-1km SR helicity upwards of 400-500 m2/s2 and effective shear
of 60-70 kts. There has also been a recent upwards trend in HRRR
deterministic runs of some surface based instability building
mainly in the eastern Midlands into Sunday morning, perhaps
leading to a slight uptick in the strength of the line. Bottom
line is, the severe potential with this line remains in place
with strong kinematics and at least some instability expected as
model consensus continues to show this. The main risk expected
continues to be a damaging wind threat but given the shear in
place and some instability, an isolated tornado and slight hail
risk will also be possible with this. The line is then expected
to continue across the FA Sunday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
-Little change in the severe weather thinking from previous forecast
for Sunday:
-Tornado threat remains elevated.
-Damaging winds possible.
-Gusty winds outside thunderstorms.
-Timing of severe weather appears to be the morning through the
early afternoon.
-Localized flooding possible, but lower threat.
- A strong cold front moves through bringing the threat of
strong to severe thunderstorms, gusty winds, and a localized
flash flood threat during the morning and early afternoon
hours.
- Rain chances end from west to east with clearing skies and
diminishing winds by early evening.
Deep and highly amplified upper trough in the Mid Mississippi Valley
with associated deep surface low in the Ohio Valley will be lifting
to the northeast. This will drive a strong cold front slowly through
the area during the day and possibly lead to severe weather in the
area. The SPC has put the region in a slight risk of severe
weather.
The front appears to set up just west of the area in the morning
then move slowly east given that its parallel to the upper
level flow. Overall synoptic forcing looks strong with upper
ridge along the coast and approaching trough to the west, flow
appears diffluent. Upper level 250mb jet around 125kts southwest
to northeast across the western Carolinas in the morning.
Central SC appears to be in the entrance region between 15z and
18z so this is the period of maximum upper level
divergence/lift. The low to mid level south-southwesterly winds
will be strengthening during the early morning and moisture
transport will increase. Dewpoints rising into the 60s.
Precipitable water increases quickly to around 1.65 inches. With
the increase in moisture and strong warm advection aided by
65kt 850mb jet streak, instability will be increasing with a
NBM/HREF high probability of CAPE > 500 J/kg with a noticeable
signal in the SC Piedmont (associated with the 850mb jet-streak
mid morning). The SR helicity 0-1 km helicity 400-500 m2/s2.
Another signal is in the east Midlands and coastal plain for
potential tornadoes with EHI index 1-2 in the afternoon. Several
model soundings HREF and global deterministic support a
scattered damaging wind threat/isolated tornado/slight hail
threat given the strong vertical wind shear and instability.
Storm mode expected to be supercell within an embedded line in
HSLC environment with a few discrete cells possible ahead of the
line. One factor to consider is the parent low is far removed
to the north, but still the consensus model data all show strong
vertical wind shear, favorable hodographs are at least some
instability.
With the storms likely moving quite fast from southwest to
northeast, threat for flash flooding appears relatively low even
though the front will be slow moving. QPF expected in the 0.5 to 1
inch range with locally higher amounts in a few storms. Maybe 1-2
inches max.
The timing of severe weather potential appears to be in the morning
in the CSRA into the central Midlands and early afternoon in the
east Midlands. The convection could linger a little later in the
I-95 corridor in the afternoon. The front actually moves
through late in the afternoon and early evening with drier air
spreading east after 21z. A few lingering showers possible early
in the evening but in general, decreasing cloudiness. gusty
winds through the period even outside convection. Guidance
supports wind gusts 30-35 mph with a few higher gusts outside
convection in gradient flow. With the strong warm advection,
temps could be warm right ahead of the convection. Stayed close
to the NBM with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Cool night with
diminishing winds with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):
- Seasonably cool then warming by mid week.
- Low chance of rain during the period.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected on Monday as the upper
trough passes overhead. Skies become sunny and it may be breezy
at times in the afternoon with winds out of the northwest.
Daytime temperatures should be near or slightly below normal.
It`ll be chilly Monday night with below normal temperatures, but
the threat of widespread frost is currently low. Upper ridge
and surface high pressure move in Tuesday into Wednesday
resulting in a warming trend ahead of the next trough. This
trough will bring a weak cold front through on Thursday with a
low end threat for a few showers and near normal temperatures
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to around 06z then restrictions in
stratus expected through sunrise then lower restrictions with a
line of convection moving through the area.
Strong low pressure will lift northeastward into the Ohio
Valley overnight pushing a cold front into the region on Sunday.
Strong and increasing wind fields already resulting in gusty
southeasterly winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots.
Winds should increase later tonight as the front approaches and
pressure gradient increases along with strengthening low level
jet which will approach 60 knots after 09z. Winds should become
more southerly after 09z increasing to around 20 knots with
gusts over 30 knots. Strong low level moisture transport into
the region should result in MVFR stratus developing after 06z
and continuing through late morning to early afternoon Sunday.
Hi-res guidance is showing a line of convection moving through
the region impacting the terminals with IFR cigs/LIFR vsbys in
thunderstorms with possible severe wind gusts. Timing of the
main impacts looks to be 10-14z AGS/DNL, 11-15z CAE/CUB and
13-17 OGB where those lower restrictions will be in a tempo
group. As the convective line moves past the terminals, gusty
winds will continue but directions shift more southwesterly with
some lingering showers and MVFR cigs before VFR conditions
return by early afternoon.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR expected through the middle of next
week.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1019 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving northward across the Great Lakes will drag a
cold front east across the area on Sunday. High pressure builds
back in on Monday before departing to the east on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The next low pressure system impacts the region
Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NW Ohio has been pulled out of the marginal severe weather
threat as instability has diminished with stratiform rain and
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. A low end severe weather
threat remains for the remainder of the forecast area but not
expected to get going again until after 5 AM. A large swath of
rain can be seen on radar imagery extending from Central Ohio
all the way to the Gulf Coast. This rain will fill in across the
area tonight as low pressure tracks from Tennessee to Northwest
Ohio. A very strong low level jet is expected to materialize
with winds at 925mb of 50-55 knots and 70-75 knots at 850mb.
While the rain is expected to help stabilize the low levels, we
will also see the pressure gradient tighten up after midnight as
the low approaches and deepens. It seems there is sufficient
potential to see some gusts of 40-50 mph overnight, either as
showers arrive, in any heavier or convective rains, and in a
break that may follow the rain. Decided to expand the wind
advisory to the remainder of the forecast area through the
overnight period. High resolution models indicate the rain will
spread east overnight with some breaks developing closer to the
surface low. Limited instability of a few hundred joules of CAPE
may return and spread east ahead of the cold front between 10Z
and 18Z. 00Z HRRR suggests a broken line of convection may show
an intensifying trend as it tracks east towards Pennsylvania
during the late morning. Upper level jet support will encourage
intensification during this time frame. This supports the
marginal risk of severe weather across the eastern portion of
the area late tonight into Sunday.
Previous discussion...Active near term period continues as an
upper level trough digs east across the local area. Multiple
hazards remain on the table including strong synoptic winds,
widespread rainfall, and the potential for strong to severe
storms.
Synoptic Winds:
Various segments and end times in place as wind advisories are
in effect across the majority of the forecast area. Southerly
winds remain elevated between 25 and 30 MPH with gusts of 45 to
50 MPH this evening. There may be a brief lull in stronger wind
gusts between sunset and midnight tonight before the LLJ (~55
knots at 850mb) moves overhead. Biggest change to the forecast
with this package was extending the end time for the Wind
Advisory west of I- 71 through 8 AM Sunday. The Wind Advisory
for Summit, Portage, Trumbull, and Wayne Counties in Ohio
remains in effect through 8 PM tonight but may need to be
extended. Elsewhere along the lakeshore, Wind Advisories remain
in place through 11 AM Sunday for Cuyahoga County and through 2
PM Sunday for Lake County and points east. Winds will gradually
subside behind the cold front Sunday afternoon as they turn
westerly then northwesterly by the end of the near term forecast
period.
Rainfall:
There has been a lull in rain showers this afternoon behind the
line of showers and thunderstorms that pushed eastward this
morning. Some isolated thunderstorms west of I-75 this afternoon
have begun to initiate but are expected to gradually diminish
through this evening as instability decreases. As the isolated
thunderstorms weaken, rain showers will reenter the region this
evening from the southwest and spread eastward as surface low
pressure moves north into from the Tennessee Valley into the
Ohio Valley. Showers will exit to the east Sunday morning as a
dry slot enters from the west. Overall precipitation amounts in
the 0.50-1.00 inch range should be manageable and not warrant
any flooding concerns. Locally higher amounts between 1.00-1.25
inches are possible in central Ohio.
Strong to severe storms:
The SPC has pushed its SWODY2 Marginal Risk west to cover the
eastern half of the forecast area tomorrow. We may have a brief
window to destabilize early Sunday afternoon as the
aforementioned rain showers exit to the east and the dry slot
builds overhead ahead of the cold front. Latest hi-res guidance
shows a line of showers and thunderstorms redeveloping along a
cold front east of I-71 along a narrow band of ~500 J/kg of
MLCAPE and 50+ knots of deep layer shear. Primary threat in any
strong to severe storm that develops will be damaging winds,
though small hail and a brief tornado can`t be ruled out given
the strong deep layer shear.
Temperatures:
Warm overnight lows settle in the mid to upper 50s for most. As
the cold front enters from the west overnight, lows along the
I-75 corridor may dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s. High
temperatures will be dependent on the timing of the frontal
passage. Highs across the western half of the forecast area will
struggle to reach 50 degrees whereas highs east of I-71 will be
achieved early in the day as they rise into the upper 50s. Much
colder by Sunday night behind the cold front as overnight lows dip
into the upper 20s. Some lingering moisture and northwest flow
over a mostly ice free lake may lead to some light lake effect
snow showers across the Snowbelt Sunday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
By Monday, high pressure will begin to build over the area, allowing
for all showers to depart to the east and dry conditions to persist
through the entire short term period. Ahead of another low pressure
system developing in the lee of the Rockies, an increased gradient
and resultant strong LLJ will push north on the leading edge of the
trough, resulting in the potential for breezy conditions on Tuesday,
especially across western counties and those along the lakeshore.
Highs on Monday will be a bit cooler, climbing into the 40s, before
warm temperatures return with southwest WAA on Tuesday with
temperatures climbing into the 60s. Monday lows will drop into the
mid 30s across western counties and into the mid to upper 20s for
the eastern counties. By Tuesday night, the overnight lows will
return to mild with temperatures only falling into the mid 40s to
low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next impactful system will move into the Midwest/western Great
Lakes region beginning on Wednesday. This system looks to follow a
very similar path as the current low impacting the region as it is
expected to track northeast through the region and into the
Northeast. A deepening trough will allow for a strong vort max and a
strong upper level jet to enhance support for any shower and
thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm potential remains uncertain
given the onset timing of precipitation possibly being in a less
diurnally favorable environment, but cannot rule out a few rumbles
across the area. Wednesday night into Thursday, a cold front will
move east across the area, resulting in a lingering surface trough
over the area and the potential for a period of chillier air. Models
suggest 850mb temperatures of -10 to -12C late Thursday into Friday
morning, which may be cool enough to develop some lake effect snow
showers into Friday morning. Given the warm antecedent conditions
and rather narrow period where moisture will also be present, not
expecting much in regards to accumulations. By Friday afternoon, it
looks like the potential for snow decreases as drier air builds over
the area. Will need to continue to monitor as there is quite a bit
of divergence in model agreement that far out.
The long term period will start out warm in the 60s to low 70s
before cooling with highs only reaching into the 40s for the
remainder of the period. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend
beginning Wednesday night in the upper 30s to low 40s before cooling
into the 20s for the remainder of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Rain will expand across the area this evening ahead of low
pressure tracking north from Tennessee. A swath of rain extends
from Central Ohio all the way to the Gulf Coast. Condition are
starting off VFR but are expected to lower to MVFR in rain. This
rain will expand north and shift east overnight. A very strong
low level jet will return after midnight with wind speeds of
50-55 knots at 2500 feet and 70-75 knots around 5K feet. While
the rain is expected to help stabilize the low levels, we will
also see the pressure gradient tighten up after midnight with
deepening low pressure approaching. Winds will drop off for a
period of time this evening then increase after 04-06Z with
gusts of 35-45 knots possible. Its hard to say if peak winds
will occur as rain arrives, in heavier convectively driven
showers, or after the rain ends ahead of the cold front. With
gusty winds expected, did not include low level wind sheer in
the forecast but may need to add it if windows develop where
stronger wind gusts are not mixing down to the surface. It is
not out of the question for winds to gust as high as 50 knots if
heavier showers develop. Some high resolution models indicate
minimal instability between 10-18Z ahead of the cold front with
a line of showers. This could be a solid window of stronger wind
gusts if the showers or thunderstorms materialize. Did not add
thunder to any terminals with confidence too low at this time
but may need to add it for the Sunday morning window.
Conditions will remain MVFR during the day on Sunday with
showers ending from west to east. Winds will shift to the west
southwest with gust of 30 knots in the west and as high as 40
knots in the east during the morning.
Outlook...Non-VFR will continue into Sunday night at some
locations.
&&
.MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist through Sunday
evening as a strong low pressure system moves northeast through the
western Great Lakes region and into Ontario. Strong southerly winds
today of 20-25 knots, gusting up to 35 knots will persist through
tonight before gradually becoming west-northwest on Sunday as a cold
front moves east. Waves will be limited today with the offshore
flow, however once the winds turn onshore tomorrow, waves will build
to 3-5 feet, especially across the central basin. As a result, a
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday evening for
the entire southern lakeshore of Lake Erie.
Late on Sunday, high pressure begins to build over the area and will
influence the weather for the start of the week, allowing for
generally quiet marine conditions through Tuesday. On Wednesday,
another strong low pressure system will begin to impact Lake Erie,
which will likely persist through Friday and require additional
marine headlines.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ003-006>010-017>020-
027>031-036>038-047.
Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ011-021>023-032-
033.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for OHZ012>014-089.
PA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ142>144.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LEZ145>148.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...10/13
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...10
MARINE...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1046 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* A cold front will push across Central PA Sunday afternoon,
producing a soaking rain and perhaps some stronger
thunderstorms.
* One cooler day on Monday will be followed by a warm up as
ridging moves in from the west and settles overhead for mid-
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Late evening satellite imagery shows a persistent marine
stratus deck covering much of Central PA. Model guidance
indicates any breaks in the cloud cover will fill in overnight
ahead of an approaching warm front. Increasing low level
moisture ahead of this boundary, will likely result in a bit of
late night drizzle, mainly where the southeast flow is forced to
ascend the higher elevations of the Central Mtns. Ridgetop fog
is already noted over Schuylkill County this evening and expect
similar conditions to develop later tonight over the ridgetops
of Central PA.
Model 2m temp plumes support slowly rising temperatures
overnight associated with the arriving warm front. Expect
daybreak readings to be mostly in the mid to upper 50s.
The approach of a powerful low level jet, combined with a
weakening inversion, should result in increasingly gusty SSE
winds late tonight. This is especially so over the N and W Mtns,
where the HREF and latest HRRR support wind gusts of 35kts+ on
the leeward (northwest) sides of ridges by dawn.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
By Sunday morning, a potent wind field will overspread
Pennsylvania with more than sufficient wind shear to support
severe weather, but instability will be the main hindrance to
the occurrence of damaging winds. CAMS suggest there will be
multiple rounds of showers for most, with the first round
accompanying the passage of the low level jet and plume of Gulf
moisture, then another round of convection likely accompanying
the cold front itself Sunday evening.
The following summary of Sunday`s hazards represents our latest
thinking for an event that poses a conditional threat of strong
to damaging winds.
NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS: Most guidance brings 60-70KT SSW winds as
close as 2-3kft aloft, so it won`t take much to tap into. That
being said, antecedent stability likely prevents surface winds
outside of convection from getting too strong. Perhaps the mtn
tops could have 40+MPH gusts outside of any convection or decent
mixing. But, many other places are progged to be too stable to
get high gusts unless there is mixing due to deep
convection/thunderstorms. Winds remain southeasterly this
evening, gradually veer to southerly Sunday ahead of the front,
and quickly veer to the west in the wake of the front Sunday
night. The strongest gradient wind events around here tend to
be in westerly flow downwind of the Laurels, but prefrontal
southerlies appear to be the primary concern in this case and
generally sub-Advisory (44mph) gusts are expected outside of
convective showers/storms.
CONVECTIVE HAZARDS: The latest SPC outlook for Sunday keeps a
Marginal Risk across the region, but has introduced a 2% tornado
threat for much of Central PA. At the start of the day,
southeast surface winds will enhance the low-level shear
profile making it more than sufficient for damaging wind &
tornadoes IF any showers/storms can get sufficiently tall. Much
of the guidance has only a few hundred J/kg of pre-frontal CAPE
Sunday afternoon, and the persistence of clouds the last few
days does not lead to much confidence in the realization of
sufficient stability for a widespread threat. Nonetheless,
decent large scale forcing will support a couple rounds of
low-topped convection that may not produce much lightning and
an isolated damaging wind gusts and/or brief tornado cannot be
ruled out. The cold front and associated convection should exit
the region Sunday evening, but some SHRA may linger in eastern
PA and perhaps the Laurels as winds gradually taper off.
FLOODING: PWATs with this system will be between 1 and 1.5
inches, which is in the >99th percentile for this time of year
and indicates these showers will be efficient rainmakers. Latest
ensemble mean qpf supports a widespread 0.75 to 1 inch of
beneficial rain across Central PA Sunday with little risk of
flooding. However, orographic enhancement associated with a
pre-frontal southerly flow is likely to result in somewhat
higher rain totals across the mtns north of I-80, where flash
flood guidance is a bit lower (~1"/3hrs), so can`t rule out some
minor flooding issues in this region Sunday PM.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fair and closer to seasonable weather appears likely Monday, as
surface ridging builds southeast into PA. However, relatively
cool air aloft should produce a decent amount of stratocu. Dry
and warm conditions are then expected Tue and Wed, as upper
level ridging builds over the East Coast and the surface ridge
slips east of PA. EPS mean 850mb temps peak around 10C Wed,
supportive of max temps potentially exceeding 70F over parts of
the area. The combination of winds and dry conditions could
lead to an elevated risk of fire spread by Wed PM.
Medium range guidance supports the chance for a round of
showers with a cold front passage next Thursday. Latest ensemble
plumes indicate rainfall will not be very significant with this
fast-moving front.
Blustery and colder conditions are likely behind the front
Thursday night into part of Friday, with scattered rain/snow
showers accompanying the upper trough passage, mainly over the N
and W Mtns.
Latest EPS and GEFS track a weakening shortwave across the state
next Saturday, which could be accompanied by scattered, light
rain showers.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low CIGS and visibility values likely to persist into Sunday,
before the cold front moves east of the area late in the day.
LLWS will prevail across the airspace into Sunday with very
strong winds at aloft.
Outlook...
Mon...Windy and colder with clearing skies.
Tue...VFR with lighter winds.
Wed...VFR.
Thu...Showers overspreading the area from west to east.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Martin/Gartner
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1100 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A dynamic storm system is bringing multiple rounds of showers,
and some thunderstorms into Sunday.
- There is an Slight Risk of severe storms for most of eastern KY
for this into early Sunday morning.
- Strong to damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall are the
primary risks with thunderstorms overnight.
- In addition to the damaging wind gust potential from
thunderstorms, occasional non-thunderstorm wind gusts in excess
of 40 mph are possible through the rest of the night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2025
The worst of the convection for this round is behind us but we
will be watching for more strength in the cells that precede the
system`s cold front later tonight into dawn. This is evident a
concern per the latest HRRR and SSCRAM guidance focusing on UD
helicity and severe wind chances moving in west to east between 6
and 9 am. For that reason, SPC has kept most of the area in a
slight risk for severe weather with damaging wind gusts the main
concern. Have updated the forecast for the PoPs and thunder threat
through the rest of the night. We will be keeping the Wind
Advisory and Flood Watch going, as well. Strong wind gusts
continue to affect at least the higher terrain, outside of the
current convection, and will likely be brought down effectively
with any decent shower or thunderstorm development later tonight.
Some ongoing minor flood concerns continue through the area with
1 to 2 inches more rain possible into Sunday afternoon. Otherwise,
under cloudy skies, temperatures are relatively mild in the mid
and upper 50s for most of the area, but in the mid to upper 60s
in the far east - out ahead of most of the rain. Dewpoints,
meanwhile, are running in the mid 50s west to around 50 degrees in
the far east. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO, FFA, NPW,
and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2025
The afternoon surface analysis shows a strong surface cyclone has
progressed northward into Ontario, with an attendant cold front
sprawled southward into the Midwest. Mean while a mid-level trough
is noted and will push east becoming more negatively tilted as it
does so. Ample lift is noted in the upper levels as the jet streak
structure takes on coupled jet structure. This will lead to a
deepening of the 925mb low this afternoon and evening and increasing
the jet as it does so. This afternoon radar shows a band of
convective precipitation progressing northward and this is tied to
some noted 700mb frontogenesis. The warm sector is trying to make a
push northward this afternoon into the Cumberland Valley. However,
the large amount of divergence noted in the upper levels is leading
to ample convection forming in these areas. Even so there will be a
narrow window where perhaps enough instability will push northward
leading to at least a conditional threat of severe thunderstorms
given the strong kinematic environment in place, with effective
shear values climbing into the 40 to 60 knots range. Overall the
main treats remains strong severe wind gusts and even isolated
tornado threat. Again the main area of concern would be mainly along
and south of KY 80/Hal Roger Parkway. The next threat of concern
this evening into tonight is Flash Flooding. There has been some
priming today in parts of the Cumberland Valley/Lake Cumberland
regions. Given the ample convection forming in the warm sector and
additional line of convection tonight could lead to some Flash
Flooding potential. This as low level jet increases and aids in
surging moisture transport poleward. The PWAT values will also be
running in the 2-3 standard deviations above normal. Given these
trends will lean toward adding Bell County to the Flood Watch.
This line of convection will push east through the night as the
first boundary moves across Kentucky. Sunday the main cold front is
slated to push across Kentucky. This will bring in renewed
convection that forms along this boundary amid modest CAPE and ample
effective shear of 30-40 knots. That said, Some of these
thunderstorms could get on the stronger side if there is enough
moisture in place. The main threat would be strong wind gusts, but
mid-level lapse rates will be strong enough to support at least some
marginally severe hail if you can get a strong enough updraft. This
will push most of the active weather east Sunday night but could be
some upslope potential as we go into the night. There is a chance of
even some flurries in the higher terrain near the VA border, as
we cool into the lower 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 418 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
The long term forecast period opens within a regime of NW flow on
the backside of the longwave trough responsible for this weekend`s
active weather. This NW flow will advect a cooler and drier airmass
into the region, leading to a gradual clearing trend in the skies.
Afternoon temperatures will warm up into the low 50s, especially
where the sun peeks out in the west. Further to the east, cloud
cover may work to mitigate diurnal warming, especially in high-
terrain locations near the Virginia state line. There, orographic
lift may yield some sprinkles/flurries, but no significant
accumulations are expected.
By Monday night, midlevel ridging and its associated surface high
will begin to exert their influence over the forecast area. Expect
the resultant clear conditions to continue into Tuesday, with ridge-
valley temperature splits overnight. AM lows near freezing in the
valleys and closer to 40 on the ridgetops will warm up to near 70
area-wide on Tuesday afternoon. While efficient diurnal warming and
mixing processes may drop afternoon relative humidity minimums to
fire weather thresholds, this weekend`s wetness may limit the fuels
component. Thus, the fire weather risk looks more localized compared
to what we observed this past weeks. Nevertheless, observational
trends will need to be watched closely on Tuesday.
Southwesterly return flow on the backside of the eastward-
propagating ridging features will moisten the atmosphere on
Wednesday out ahead of the next mid-latitude cyclone`s approach
later that evening. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 70s,
but cloud coverage is expected to increase. Rain chances increase
from west to east overnight ahead of the system`s cold front, then
wind down on Thursday as it sweeps through. As cold air advection
kicks in, a changeover to light snow in far eastern portions of the
forecast cannot be ruled out on Thursday evening. No significant
accumulations are expected, and flow shifts back towards the WSW on
Friday as another ridge builds into the Commonwealth.
Overall, the progressive nature of this pattern reduces the
likelihood of significant impacts. With that being said, nuisance
precipitation chances return to the forecast on Wednesday evening
and continue into Thursday. Monday, Tuesday, and Friday will feature
quieter weather.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2025
Widespread light to moderate rainfall is overspreading all TAF
sites. A thin line of convection is currently noted from KIOB
south to KLOZ. Some lightning is being observed with this line,
so TSRA has been added in TEMPO groups, but we are not expecting
widespread thunderstorms. Recent obs also show a brief wind shift
to gusty west-northwesterly behind the line of convection, which
should then shift back to southerly after a couple hours. Have
included this shift in the immediate TEMPO group.
The widespread rain (along with 50 kt southerly LLWS) is expected
to continue through 12Z or so, before tapering off to more
scattered and isolated in coverage. There is then medium
confidence in a broken line of scattered showers and thunderstorms
moving through the area between 17-23 Z (potentially earlier).
Main uncertainty is in the timing, though we are pretty confident
in a line developing and moving through.
Otherwise, expect cigs to vary through the period as varying
intensities of rainfall and cloud coverage occur. Confidence is
increasing, however, for widespread MVFR cigs to overspread the
area toward the end of the TAF period as the system fully exits
the area. Winds will be moderate, slowly shifting from southerly
to northwesterly by the end of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>087-108-111-114-116.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GUEST
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
808 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected
Sunday and Monday.
- A storm system mid week next week will lead to gusty winds,
colder temperatures and the threat for rain or accumulating
snow. Forecast details and forecast confidence are low at this
time.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
With diminishing winds and rising humidity, Red Flag conditions
are no longer expected across central or western Nebraska, so
the Red Flag Warning has been allowed to expire. The remainder
of the forecast is tracking well so no changes needed at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Over the next 36 hours dry and warm air will push into the high
plains resulting in critical or near critical fire weather
conditions Sunday afternoon. More about that in the fire weather
section below. For tonight, high pressure will build south into
western and central Nebraska before exiting east by 12z Sunday.
Winds will be light from the north and northwest later tonight.
With the light winds, dry air and clear skies in place, went
ahead and lowered lows a couple of degrees from the inherited
forecast. This led to lows around 20 tonight. Cooler but not to
the degree the latest MET guidance would suggest as it had a low
of 11 for North Platte and Valentine. On Sunday, winds will
shift around to the west as surface low pressure deepens to the
north of the forecast area. The westerly winds will push very
dry air into the region from the west leading to afternoon RH
around 15 percent. Winds are more of a question mark for Sunday.
The GFS bufkit soundings indicate good mixing potential above
h850 Sunday afternoon with periodic gusts above 30 MPH Sunday
afternoon. The 12z HRRR also supports this increased wind threat
and extends this east to all but the far eastern forecast area.
The NAM is most subdued with its winds Sunday afternoon and may
be a by product of the very cold start and cooler afternoon
temperatures Sunday. That being said, will favor the warmer
temperatures in the MAV and NBM guidance which will lead to
highs in the lower 60s. These warmer temperatures also favor
greater mixing and wind potential Sunday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Low amplitude ridging will transition quickly across the
central plains on Monday, leading to the development of a low
level thermal ridge which extends north from the southern plains
as far north as southern South Dakota. H85 temps will approach
17C in the southwestern forecast area Monday afternoon. This
should equate to highs well into the mid to upper 70s across the
forecast area. With the approach of a frontal boundary later
Monday night, wouldn`t be surprised if we top 80 for Monday,
which is above the NBM deterministic high of 79 for North
Platte. FYI, the record high for North Platte on Monday is 82
degrees. A mid level trough will deepen across the southwestern
CONUS Monday night. As this feature approaches the Four Corners
Tuesday morning, surface low pressure will slide east across the
central plains, forcing a cold front through the forecast area
Tuesday. Well behind the front, there will be an increased
threat for precipitation, initially over the northern forecast
area, then south over southern Nebraska into Iowa. Forcing with
this post frontal lift appears to bypass most of the forecast
area Tuesday into Tuesday night, so ATTM, winter impacts appear
minimal. With forcing generally favored during the day across
the forecast area, the bulk of any precipitation should fall as
rain with a better threat for snow east of the area. Will need
to continue to monitor the timing of this forcing closely over
the next 24 to 36 hours as this will play heavily toward any
winter impacts Tuesday night into Wednesday across the area. Low
amplitude ridging will build back into the central plains
Thursday. This ridging will be followed by another quick moving
shortwave trough Friday into Friday night. Highs Thursday and
Friday will be in the mid to upper 50s which is at the lower end
of the NBM ensembles, of which, the mean is in the lower to
middle 60s. That being said, if this trend continues, forecast
high temperatures for Thursday and Friday have a good chance to
increase with subsequent forecast packages.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Strong northwest winds will slowly diminish over the next few hours
becoming calm overnight. A return to strong gusts are expected on
Sunday afternoon. Westerly gusts up to 25 knots will be possible
through 00Z Monday. Otherwise, ceilings remain in VFR for the
duration of the TAF period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Two more days with potential for critical fire weather conditions
across central and western Nebraska. On Sunday, widespread
minimum RH of 10 to 20 percent is likely across the area. Winds on
the other hand are less certain, especially over the eastern half
of the forecast area. Probabilistic guidance shows an 80 percent
chance for wind gusts at or above 30mph especially both west of
Hwy 83 and north of I-8 Sunday afternoon. Wind potential
diminishes heading further to the east.
Highs Monday will reach into the mid to upper 70s, favoring min
RH at or under 15 percent. Winds Monday are uncertain and will
hinge on the location of a surface trough. A cold front will pass
through the area Monday night with cooler readings and potential
for wetting precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for NEZ204-206-209-210-219.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MBS
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Kulik
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1054 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1049 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Updated forecast to decrease severe chances and end Tornado Watch
for northern areas. Convection has decreased with mainly showers
over the area at this time. Instability has decreased but still
high shear with strong low level southeast flow ahead of deep
upper trough. Locally heavy rainfall possible for the next several
hours so Flood Watch continues as well as Wind Advisory and High
Wind Warning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Updated forecast to freshen up wording. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are moving northeast across the southern valley and
southern plateau at this hour. Heavy rainfall is occurring with
these storms with their slow eastern movement.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Key messages:
1. Significant severe weather event expected for our forecast area
this evening into the overnight hours. Damaging winds will be the
primary hazard, along with the possibility of tornadoes.
2. Flooding will be a concern tonight, with the most likely area
for flooding being the Cumberland Plateau and Southern TN Valley.
3. High winds in the mountains will persist through tonight,
coupled with very dry fuels, so fire danger levels will remain
elevated and a Red Flag Warning is in effect through this evening.
4. Strong winds expected area-wide today and tonight. A High Wind
Warning is in effect for the East Tennessee mountains and
foothills. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the rest of the
region.
Discussion:
Satellite and obs show partial clearing is occurring across much
of the area. This is not good news for the expected evening
storms. The morning rain has led to dewpoints in the lower to mid
60s across much of the southern and central TN Valley and
Cumberland Plateau. There is a notable dewpoint gradient running
N-S from around LNP to Newport, likely due to downslope drying to
the east of that line where dewpoints are in the upper 40s. Areas
west of this line are developing ample instability to maintain
thunderstorms that are approaching from the west.
The HRRR appears to have a good handle on the location of ongoing
storms in Middle/West TN and the MS/AL border. It shows these
storms reach our Plateau counties between 22-23Z. The convective
mode will be mainly linear with damaging wind gusts and embedded
cells capable of producing tornadoes. While the southern Plateau
and TN Valley will have the highest tornado potential due to
backed surface winds, the threat cannot be ruled out farther north
as well up to the aforementioned boundary. Bottom line is that
everyone in East TN should stay weather aware tonight, have
multiple ways to receive warnings, and act quickly when a warning
is issued.
So far, the gradient winds have been slow to materialize in the
TN Valley. Winds in the mountains have been under High Wind
Warning criteria since sunrise, but we are still expecting winds
to increase everywhere as the LLJ picks up near sunset and the
strengthening surface low tracks from the lower MS Valley into
West TN and KY. No changes will be made to the current Wind
Advisory and High Wind Warning. The lack of rain so far in the
mountains along with the expected winds will continue RFW
conditions until the rain arrives around midnight.
Flooding will be a concern overnight. The morning rainfall
produced from 1 to 2.5 inches in the western half of the area,
priming the pump for additional flooding problems tonight, when an
additional 1-3 inches of rain will be possible in those same
areas. Flash flood guidance west of I-75 is only 1 inch, with
3-hour being only about 1.25 inches. Based on this, the FA.A will
add a few counties to the east, and include Knoxville.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Key Messages:
1. Cooler temperatures Sunday into Monday and especially Monday
morning with lows generally in the 30s.
2. Increasing temperature trend and dry the first half of next week,
with the next cold front not expected until Thursday timeframe.
3. Cooler end to the work week and weekend.
Discussion:
The upper trough will cross our area on Sunday. Under the trough,
steep lapse rates will keep scattered showers going through the
afternoon hours. A secondary cold front will cross the area late
in the day, bringing colder temperatures Sunday night with lows in
the 30s. On Sunday night, the precipitation will be exiting the
region, but there is a possibility that the peaks of the mountains
get a dusting of snow before sunrise Monday morning. Daytime on
Monday won`t see temperatures rebound much with all areas expected
to be below seasonal normals.
However, this cold spell won`t last for very long after another
night of cold temperatures Monday night/Tuesday morning, as things
quickly warm up Tuesday heating back up into the 60`s/70`s with
strong ridging and surface high pressure working in tandem with the
very sunny skies. This set up stays in place for Wednesday and then
the temperature roller coaster takes another drop off for the back
half of the week with a quick moving system moving through the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes Region. The timing/location/strength of this late
week system at this time are indicating that it should be overall
much weaker than the this previous weekend system as most of the
synoptic forcing looks like it could be pulling out to the north as
it moves near the eastern Tennessee Valley.
Of higher confidence is the cooler temperatures behind the main
front with a chilly end to the week and most of the weekend with
temperatures looking to remain at or below seasonal normals for
multiple days. Taking a peak just beyond the end of the forecast we
could be in for another round on the temperature roller coaster with
very warm and chilly days looking possible.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will affect CHA next several hours and
will be moving into TYS shortly and TRI in a few hours. Strong
gusty winds will continue from the southeast to south and then
shift to the west southwest later tonight with gusts to about 35
knots. VFR ceilings except in thunderstorms so could drop below
3000 feet. Visibilities will drop to MVFR in thunderstorms through
the evening. After midnight behind the thunderstorms expect
ceilings to drop to MVFR. Ceilings will become VFR again by around
12Z. Gusty southwest winds Sunday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 68 35 60 / 100 40 20 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 68 34 56 / 100 60 40 10
Oak Ridge, TN 56 66 34 57 / 100 60 30 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 68 36 53 / 90 40 50 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Cherokee-Clay.
TN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday for Anderson-
Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-
Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-
McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest
Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-
Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sullivan-Union-Washington TN-
West Polk.
Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday for Anderson-
Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-East Polk-Hamilton-Knox-
Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-Northwest Blount-
Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Southeast
Monroe-Union-West Polk.
High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Johnson-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Johnson-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.
VA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
Washington VA-Wise.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TD
LONG TERM....DGS
AVIATION...TD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
456 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms will quickly taper
off to scattered showers this evening that will continue into
Sunday morning. Rain may briefly mix with or end as wet snow
across the NW counties.
- Very dry conditions expected across Mark Twain on Sunday with
RH values mixing down to 20% in the afternoon. Wind gusts
between 20-25 mph are expected across the entire region.
- There is a 40-60% chance of rain Wednesday into Wednesday
night with rainfall amounts between 0.10-0.25 inches.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 454 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
A highly amplified deep H5 trough is digging along the Gulf
coast this afternoon that has been responsible for bringing
widespread severe weather across a large portion of the CONUS
this weekend. In the wake of a cold front this evening, the
main concern for the rest of today will be heavy rainfall and
elevated flooding concerns with embedded thunderstorms across
the Kentucky Pennyrile. Rain tapers off to scattered rain
showers tonight and continues into Sunday morning. Some of the
CAMS including the HRRR and NAMNest indicate there may be enough
forcing to dynamically cool the column, allowing for rain
showers to mix with or end as some wet snow around 12-15z Sunday
across the NW counties due to an H7 embedded shortwave. No
accumulation is expected.
With that said, a cool down on Sunday will lead to highs only in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. The pressure gradient tightens
leading to breezy conditions with NW winds between 10-16 mph and
gusts 20-25 mph. Due to robust mixing in the boundary layer,
there will be very dry conditions across Mark Twain with RH
values plummeting to near 20% in the afternoon. A ridge of high
pressure then begins to build in Sunday night allowing for the
boundary layer to quickly decouple. Leaned colder on
temperatures Sunday night closer to MOS guidance as radiational
cooling should allow for lows to fall near to slightly below
freezing across much of the FA.
Temperatures quickly rebound next week as southerly return flow
on Monday allows highs to trend back into the 60s and 70s
through mid week. An H5 shortwave with a trailing cold front
moves through Wednesday into Wednesday night, but the moisture
looks fairly meager. QPF between a 0.10-0.25 inches is progged
at most. More seasonable conditions return after fropa on
Thursday before the aformentioned pattern repeats heading into
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 454 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025
A cold front makes passage tonight. It will shift winds to the
west and northwest, including some gustiness. Restricted bases
remain possible as it moves thru, including thru tmrw as the
parent low pressure system responsible pulls out. Showers may
linger til then as well, particularly north and east.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$