Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/15/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
635 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
- Critical fire weather conditions continue through this evening
and a Red Flag Warning is in effect until 9 PM.
- Damaging winds are occurring across the area and a High Wind
Warning is in effect through this evening.
- Widespread blowing dust is causing greatly reduced visibility
and Blowing Dust Advisories and Warnings are in effect for the
entire area.
- Additional chances for widespread elevated to critical fire
weather will arise early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
The latest H500 RAP analysis indicates the very strong low
pressure system is currently to the northeast of the Panhandles
across south central Kansas. To the south of this feature, very
strong low level winds are easily mixing down to the surface with
observed gusts so far today ranging from 70 to 85 mph across the
Panhandles. Sustained winds are also very strong as the surface
pressure gradient is tight over the area with sustained winds
upwards of 40 to 50 mph. These very strong winds will slowly start
to decrease late this afternoon as the low pressure system moves
off to the east/northeast.
Several key features will need to continue to be monitored for the
rest of this afternoon. One being blowing dust across much of the
Panhandles and another plume coming down from Colorado. Visibility
has been reduced down to a quarter mile or less at times due to
the blowing dust combined with the damaging winds. Blowing Dust
Warnings and Advisories have been issued and may need to be
expanded through this evening. The other concern is the extreme
fire weather conditions given the very strong winds. Thankfully,
relative humidity values have not bee as low as forecast, but
these high winds can easily spread fires. For any ongoing fires
across the north, they will need to keep a close eye on the
potential wind shift to out of the northwest, which is currently
occurring across the far western Oklahoma Panhandle. Damaging
wind gusts out of the northwest are possible behind the upper
level low given LLJ upwards of 45 to 55 kts. Just how far south
those strong winds will get is the question, but most guidance
keeps those strong winds across northern third of the Panhandles
through late this afternoon. Will be keeping a very close eye on
this potential as these very strong winds may get close to ongoing
wildfires.
Winds will greatly decrease beyond sunset across the region as the
low pressure system quickly moves away from the area. Northerly to
northwesterly winds are forecast by sunrise on Saturday and
temperatures will be below average with H850 temperatures forecast
to be below 10 Celsius all day.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Upper level troughing will move off to the east of the area by
Sunday afternoon as ridging develops across the western CONUS.
After a cool Saturday, temperatures will increase back into the
60s on Sunday and will continue to warm up into the 70s and 80s on
Monday and Tuesday. Another H500 trough will quickly move onshore
across the western US and will be centered over the Plains by
Wednesday. This feature will likely bring more breezy to gusty
winds and further fire weather conditions during those two days. A
cold front will quickly propel southward and bring a colder air
mass to the High Plains. Temperatures will decrease back to near
or below average to end the next work week.
Muscha
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
The weather system impacting the panhandles is currently moving to
the east out of the area. This is moving the dust that has
impacted panhandles out of the area improving all stations to VFR.
The winds will continue to weaken through the evening becoming
relatively weak by the overnight hours. Saturday will see gusty
north winds impact the northern panhandles including KGUY but
these should only reach into the 20s kt range. Light showers have
a low chance of occurring now through early Saturday morning. The
only item of note from these showers is they can produce muddy
rain due to the dust.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Widespread critical fire weather conditions are occurring today
due to very strong winds and low relative humidity values. Winds
today have been very strong, with sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph
with gusts up to 80 mph. These west winds will slowly start to
decrease late this afternoon. For the northern Panhandles, a
northwest shift in the winds is forecast so any ongoing fires may
shift direction should the high winds reach the fires. With the
low relative humidity values and the high winds, RFTI values have
ranged from 4 to 7 today. A Red Flag Warning is in effect through
9 PM this evening.
Muscha
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 37 57 31 65 / 10 10 0 0
Beaver OK 33 58 27 68 / 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 29 53 28 65 / 10 0 0 0
Borger TX 38 60 32 69 / 10 10 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 36 57 30 69 / 10 20 0 0
Canyon TX 36 56 30 67 / 10 20 0 0
Clarendon TX 40 58 33 67 / 10 10 0 0
Dalhart TX 30 54 27 66 / 10 10 0 0
Guymon OK 31 57 27 66 / 0 0 0 0
Hereford TX 34 55 28 67 / 10 20 0 0
Lipscomb TX 38 58 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
Pampa TX 38 57 32 66 / 0 10 0 0
Shamrock TX 40 60 32 67 / 10 10 0 0
Wellington TX 40 61 32 68 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.
Blowing Dust Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ009-010-
014>020.
OK...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.
Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...98
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
947 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will approach from the west Saturday and
push offshore Sunday evening. High pressure will prevail for
much of next week before another front impacts the area
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Some semblance of a "mini-wedge" has developed along the SC
coast with northeasterly low level flow driving a wedge of
marine stratus/fog down along the Charleston coast over the last
few hours. Unclear just how far south the marine stratus/fog
will advect, although recent guidance continues to suggest
further expansion down to the Savannah River is possible...as
well as expansion inland. Considering hoisting a marine DFA and
will have to monitor VSBY trends inland for potential inland DFA
later tonight.
Previous discussion...
Satellite images this afternoon showing one of the first (if
not the first) warmer season looking satellite pictures, with
scattered to broken cumulus near and inland from the sea breeze.
That sea breeze was found through most of the coastal corridor,
and will reach past much of the forecast area by sunset.
Despite this, there is still a cooler season phenomenon that
will occur, as an area of low stratus and fog will move across
parts of northern Charleston County. This activity is associated
with the backdoor cold front, that will stay north of I-26
early on, before advancing back north as a warm front through
the night.
The HRRR and RAP continue to indicate that a few showers could
form near and west of the US-301 corridor in Georgia this
evening. Given the lack of any instability and shear, plus only
so-so mid level lapse rates, we feel that this will not happen
with large scale subsidence. Late tonight there might be a few
showers trying to move ashore Charleston County, but this too
seems overdone, with very little in the way of any forcing.
The main issue for the night will be the expected development of
fog, resulting mainly from stratus build down, but also due to
radiation fog. Just about all guidance is showing the fog, given
a moistening of the boundary layer within a southeast to south
synoptic flow, and an impressive 3-6C inversion right off the
deck. We show patchy fog early tonight, first over the coastal
counties of South Carolina, then expand it south and west,
before increasing coverage to areas of fog late. Dense fog
remains a possibility, and later forecasts can address this
concern if necessary.
We went cooler than guidance on lows, expecting that actual min
temperatures will be at or near the dew points because of the
fog. So this equates to lows mainly in the lower and middle 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: Subtropical ridging will give way to falling heights as a
sharp southern stream shortwave propagates across the
Central/Southern Plains and the flow across the Southeast U.S.
becomes increasing cyclonic. Surface high pressure located well
offshore will move even farther away from the area as a cold front
enters the lower Mississippi Valley. Weak warm air advection along
the far western flanks of the Atlantic high could support a brief
shower or two across mainly the lower South Carolina coast into the
Charleston Tri-County late Saturday afternoon, but no meaningful
rainfall is expected. The development of a robust afternoon
resultant sea breeze appears likely with the shelf waters still
pretty chilly. Highs look to warm into the lower-mid 80s roughly
along and west of I-95, mid 70s to near 80 between I-95 and the
coast with mid 60s at the beaches. Winds will remain up Saturday
night as the pressure gradient between the high offshore and an
approaching cold front tightens and the pre-frontal low-level jet
strengthens. This will make for a rather warm night across the
region with lows only bottoming out in the lower-mid 60s, possibly a
tad warmer in spots. Warm air advection induced showers ahead of a
squall line could impact far interior areas adjacent to the CSRA and
east-central Georgia as well as mainly the lower South Carolina
coast just prior to daybreak Sunday. Pops were held 20-40% for now.
Sunday: A well-defined pre-frontal QLCS/squall line moving east
across the Deep South will be ongoing early Sunday morning as a
potent upper trough digs across the lower Mississippi Valley. The
squall line will likely maintain its strength through Saturday night
as it approaches the far western areas by mid-morning despite meager
instability coming out of the diurnal minimum. Model cross sections
show a corridor of strong, deep-layered UVVs induced by increasing
DCVA ahead of the upper trough spreading east across Southeast South
Carolina and Southeast Georgia through the day as the slope of the
upper trough tries to become more negatively oriented. This will
allow the QLCS to impact much of the area as it progresses east and
eventually offshore.
The timing of the QLCS, likely tied to influences by the degree of
sharpness of the digging trough and squall line induced mesoscale
processes, will be critical to how much diurnal instability can
develop over the area as temperatures warm through the 70s. A slower
moving line means more instability and a greater risk/coverage of
severe tstms while a more progressive line could yield less
instability and more isolated severe activity. Complicating matters
is a broad, southerly flow off the colder, more stable shelf waters
could also play a factor in the amount of instability, especially
east of I-95 to the coast. However, given the degree of shear and
forcing noted, even marginal mixed-layer instability should be
sufficient to support at least an an isolated risk for damaging
winds in excess of 60 mph along with an isolated embedded QLCS
tornado or two. There are still uncertainties on QLCS/squall line
timing, so the SPC WFO Day 3 Outlook guidance highlighting a slight
risk for the entire area looks warranted given the kinematic and
marginal thermodynamic environment. Pops near 100% were maintained
with highs topping out in the lower-mid 70s. Outside of the squall
line, breezy conditions are expected with gusts approaching 30-35
mph at times, which is just shy of the 40 mph gust criteria for a
Wind Advisory. Winds could get close to Lake Wind Advisory criteria
on Lake Moultrie, but the cold lake temperatures will tend to limit
winds a bit, especially on the open lake waters.
The QLCS/squall line should offshore by early evening with dry
conditions prevailing even until the cold front clears the coast
after midnight. Lows will fall into the mid-upper 40s well inland to
the lower-mid 50s at the beaches.
Monday: It will be dry and cooler for Monday as high pressure builds
into the region. Highs will warm into the mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There are very few concerns for the extended period. An upper trough
will dig across the eastern CONUS in the Thursday to Friday time
frame, which may push a cold front through the area. The degree of
moisture return ahead of the front is questionable with marginal
dewpoints in the 50s occurring prior to FROPA. Pops were limited to
20-30% for now aligned with the 14/13z NBM. Otherwise, temperatures
will be at or above normal for much of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI: Batch of marine stratus/fog has managed to work down
the Charleston coast and spread into KJZI/KCHS terminals very
quickly this evening leading to IFR conditions. Strong
indications in guidance that stratus/fog will remain an issue
through the balance of the night...with IFR-MVFR conditions
likely to prevail. VFR conditions return after 14Z Saturday
morning with daytime heating and development of gustier winds.
KSAV: VFR conditions are looking to hold this evening. However,
marine stratus/fog could eventually spread into the terminal
during the overnight hours and 00Z forecasts will have MVFR
conditions after 08Z. VFR conditions return after 15Z Saturday
morning with daytime heating and development of gustier winds.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions in showers/tstms are
likely Sunday as a squall line moves through. Gusty winds outside of
tstms are also likely both Sunday and possibly lingering into
Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Wedge of marine stratus/fog has expanded down the Charleston
County coast and nearshore areas over the last few hours. Marine
webcams and pilot boat dispatch reports 1 mile or less vsby
across Charleston Harbor and out to buoy 7 or so. Per guidance,
stratus/fog is likely to persist through much of the night into
Saturday morning. Thus a marine Dense Fog Advisory has been
issued through 9 am Saturday morning.
Previous discussion...
This evening and tonight: No concerns regarding winds or seas,
with conditions far below any advisory thresholds. There will be
some gusts of 15-20 kt in Charleston Harbor and along some
immediate coastal sections due to the sea breeze into this
evening. But winds drop to around 10 kt or less all waters
thereafter. Seas are just 1 or 2 feet throughout.
The main concern will be the potential for fog, resulting mainly
from the formation and build down of stratocumulus and stratus.
Guidance was overdone regarding the potential of fog last
night, so that does create some hesitation into how much there
will be tonight. We already have an area of low stratus and fog
on the northern Charleston County waters that is moving south
and southwest, and as a result a Marine Weather Statement is in
effect. It looks like that area will only go so far south,
maybe to near Charleston Harbor this evening, if it holds
together. But within a moist southeast and south synoptic flow,
additional low clouds will form, and lower through the night.
This will expand into at least patchy fog. This will include
all marine waters except the outer Georgia waters. Dense fog
can`t be ruled out, and we`ll need to maintain a close weather
watch for any possible closures of Charleston Harbor and the
Port of Savannah/Savannah River to marine navigation.
Saturday through Wednesday: Southerly winds will begin to increase
Saturday and peak Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front
approaches. The combination of strong low-level jetting and a
tightening pressure gradient will support winds 20-25 kt with gusts
to 30 kt, especially early Sunday morning through the passage of a
squall line Sunday late Sunday afternoon. Seas will build 5-8 ft,
except 6-10 ft over the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore and
Georgia offshore legs. Winds will turn offshore Sunday night as a
cold front shifts offshore, although post frontal winds do not look
overly strong, maybe 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt at best. Quiet
conditions will prevail Tuesday into Wednesday.
Small Craft Advisories are set to begin Saturday evening and
continue into Sunday night for a combination of winds, except into
Monday morning over the Georgia offshore waters, for a combination
of winds and seas. A Small Craft Advisory may also be needed for
Charleston Harbor at some point.
High Surf: As southerly winds increase and sea build, breakers in
the surf zone my exceed 5 ft for the areas for mainly the Charleston
County beaches and Edisto Beach late Saturday night into Sunday. In
addition to high surf, beach erosion could occur. A High Surf
Advisory may be needed.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ330-350.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EDT Monday for
AMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 3 AM EDT Monday for
AMZ352.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to midnight EDT Sunday
night for AMZ354.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EDT Monday for
AMZ374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
510 PM MDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow in the mountains and snow showers in the Nebraska
Panhandle will come to an end this afternoon and evening.
- Widespread strong winds will continue through the evening
hours along the I-80 corridor and most of the High Plains and
NE Panhandle.
- Another round of high winds and warming temperatures is
increasingly likely for Sunday into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 111 PM MDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Current observations from across the area show snow along the
Interstate 80 corridor in Wyoming, and rain in parts of the Nebraska
panhandle. As the afternoon progresses rain will gradually
transition to snow as the cold front pushes further eastward.
Besides precipitation, observations also show strong wind gusts
across the eastern half of the CWA. High Wind Watches and
Warnings are in place through this evening. Models, including
the GFS and HRRR have trended winds downward this afternoon,
likely due to the progressive nature of this system with only a
briefly strong MSLP gradient. Widespread subsidence also does
not occur with the strongest winds aloft, limiting the potential
for high winds. For these reasons, did not have the confidence
to upgrade most of the remaining High Wind Watches. Winter
Weather Advisories also look on track to expire on time this
afternoon as Hi-Res guidance shows snow tapering off this
afternoon. Lingering snow showers will be possible this evening
across the CWA, however no additional accumulation is expected.
Strong winds will also taper off later this evening.
Heading into Saturday, the upper-level trough will still be solidly
locked over the center of the country, leading to seasonable cool,
but below average high temperatures. 700 mb temperatures will fall
to around -12C, but luckily the mid-March sun angle will keep
temperatures during the day from getting too cold. Highs will be in
the 30s and 40s across area with breezy conditions. Some lingering
snow showers can be expected during the day Saturday in the
mountains due to good mid-level moisture and orographic lift. A few
inches of new snowfall could be possible.
As the backside of the trough pushes into the CWA Saturday night,
winds will begin to increase as MSLP gradients tighten. 700 mb CAG-
CPR gradients will also increase above 50 meters late Saturday
night, causing winds aloft to increase. Winds aloft will
strengthen throughout the day, with 700 mb winds maxing out at
70 kts over the Laramie Range by late Sunday afternoon! Strong
subsidence is also present which will help get these winds down
to the surface. High winds will be likely for at least the wind
prones late Saturday night and through the day Sunday. At this
time, decided to hold off on any headlines since active High
Wind Watches and Warnings are already in effect. Besides wind,
much warmer temperatures are expected Sunday as upper-level
ridging moves into the Rockies, ushering in warmer air aloft.
With help from downsloping winds, areas east of the Laramie
Range could see highs in the 50s and 60s, while those to the
west see highs in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM MDT Fri Mar 14 2025
A high wind event will likely be ongoing on Sunday evening
lasting through most of the day on Monday throughout much of
southeast Wyoming and possibly extending as far east as the
Nebraska Panhandle. This event will be driven by a strong
gradient between a ridge of high pressure over the southwestern
CONUS and a trough sagging through the northwest. Aloft, a
potent jet riding up and over the ridge will enhance mid level
flow, all while over a favorable downsloping pattern over the
Laramie Range and front range corridor. Wind gusts upward of
50-60 knots are likely with these kinds of setups, as
highlighted by local in-house guidance recognizing patterns from
past events. Mild weather will also accompany this high wind
event, with lows well above average on Sunday night and around
15+ degrees above average for Monday afternoon. In fact, many
areas of the NE panhandle could take a run at the low 70s, with
low to mid 60s along the I-25 corridor in southeast Wyoming.
Attention then turns to our next weather-maker, a storm system
that will bring a sharp decrease in temperatures on Tuesday and
a chance for winter weather on Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday. A shortwave trough will swing through the Pacific
Northwest coast on Monday and quickly move east through the
northern Rockies. Ensemble forecast guidance is in good
agreement showing a potent cold continental airmass
accelerating southward behind this system, resulting in a cold
front reaching the I-25 corridor near Douglass by sunrise on
Tuesday. This front will quickly dive south and eastward,
crossing through Cheyenne by noon and east of Sidney by early
afternoon. Behind this front, much colder air along with east to
northeasterly surface flow is progged by nearly all ensemble
guidance. With regard to precipitation, less confidence is
present in terms of the available moisture behind the anafront.
The ECMWF/ECMWF EPS has consistently been a bit more bullish
with moisture than the GEFS, and that trend continues today.
However, all ensemble guidance has continued to trend downward
with regard to precipitation, and most locations outside of the
mountains look to see less than 0.5" of QPF from this event.
Generally speaking, a 1-3, possibly higher, snowfall event is
still possible east of the Laramie Range. In the mountains,
6-12" looks to be a broad early call. Either way, a change to
below-normal temperatures looks like a high-confidence forecast
from Tuesday afternoon onward through the rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 507 PM MDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Very windy across all terminals this afternoon and evening.
Winds begin to decrease in the next 3 to 5 hours for Wyoming
terminals and the next 6 to 8 hours for the Nebraska terminals.
Mostly cloudy skies remain, but all sites are expected to
continue in VFR conditions. KRWL may see some residual snow
showers that could drop ceilings into the MVFR category, with
KAIA potentially seeing some rain showers dropping ceilings into
MVFR category. All sites return to VFR conditions for the
overnight hours, but cloudy skies remain.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ102-115-
118-119.
High Wind Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ101-106>108.
High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for WYZ110-116-
117.
NE...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ002-019-
054-055-095.
High Wind Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ003-020-021-
096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...AM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
956 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm temperatures continue through the weekend, and another
round of widely scattered showers takes place over the mountains
today. More widespread showers and thunderstorms develop across
the mountains Saturday. A powerful storm system brings widespread
severe weather to the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, with
damaging winds and tornadoes possible. Drier and cooler weather
returns Monday, and temperatures slowly warm up through next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 935 PM EDT Friday: Forecast remains on track this
evening. Increasing clouds seen on the nighttime RGB imagery along
the escarpment and expanding into the mountains within a moistening
low-level SELY flow. Most of the Piedmont remains mostly clear with
stratocu dissipating. But low stratus can be seen expanding across
the Pee Dee region toward the northwest. That moisture should work
into the area overnight.
Otherwise...Upper ridge moves east tonight as a deep upper
trough approaches from the west through Saturday. Surface high
pressure moves east of the area tonight with deep S to SW flow
developing Saturday as a low pressure system approaches from the
west. Occasionally gusty S to SE wind continues into the evening
then diminishes for all but the ridges overnight. Low clouds develop
overnight and continue through at least Saturday morning, possibly
into early afternoon before lifting. They likely linger longest
along and near the Blue Ridge. Isolated showers develop in the
upslope flow along the Blue Ridge this evening becoming scattered
overnight and spreading west across the mountains through the
day in the moist southerly flow. Any severe storms or significant
heavy rainfall holds off until after this period. Gusty S to SW
winds develop across the area Saturday, with very windy conditions
possible at the highest elevations. Lows tonight will be around 15
degrees above normal. Highs Saturday are expected to be 10 to 15
degrees above normal, but could be lower if clouds linger longer
than expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 211 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages
1) A powerful storm system will impact the forecast area from
Saturday night through Sunday morning, producing widespread
thunderstorms, many of which will become severe.
2) Damaging winds and several tornadoes are likely with this system.
3) Prepare for severe weather - secure outdoor items, prep and
emergency kit, have multiple ways to get critical warnings,
and plan where to seek shelter if your home is in the path of a
tornado or severe thunderstorm.
By Saturday evening, a robust z500 trough axis will be centered
over the southern Great Plains, driving a strong cold front across
central Louisiana and into the Deep South. Ahead of this front,
the 12z suite of operational guidance continues to depict a 55-65kt
LLJ, which will funnel a continuous stream of Gulf moisture into
the prefrontal environment...allowing QLCS activity to proceed
intact all the way across Alabama and Georgia...showing no signs
of deterioration as it approaches our forecast area.
One big question mark still remains regarding the onset of
convection Saturday night. This morning is the first time
we`ve had a full collection of high-res CAM sources to look at,
and there`s still some question over the possibility of some
warm-sector convective initiation over the western Upstate late
Saturday evening - around or after sunset - as the first waves
of strong synoptic forcing begin. Successive runs of the HRRR
and RAP keep hinting at this possibility - and if it pans out,
these storms will develop in a weakly-unstable but highly-sheared
environment with 0-1km on the order of 250+ m2/s2...more than
enough to expect mini-supercells posing a tornadic risk. The 12z
high-res windows and the NAMnest are much less jazzed about this
idea...and with all the ingredients necessary it may wind up being
a waiting game to see whether this activity materializes.
Whatever the case may be Saturday evening, confidence becomes
much higher toward midnight and thereafter that a well-organized
QLCS will advance out of north Georgia and the Tennessee Valley.
By the time it arrives in the western Carolinas, it`ll have
propagated well downstream of its parent frontal circulation,
which may still be located as far west as the MS-AL state line.
It`s typical in these strong WAA situations for the boundary
layer to remain well-mixed even at night...and so guidance sources
paint a deceptively stable- looking picture of the atmosphere with
sbCAPE forecasts...but MLCAPE, which in this case may be a much
better metric...surges to 300-400 J/kg over much of the region
as the system arrives. The aforementioned LLJ should still be
intact at this time, and this combined with the advancing upper
trough will provide extensive shear. 0-3km shear vectors will
be oriented a solid 60 degrees relative to the advancing QLCS,
which will support a mixture of continued linear-mode convection
alongside discrete cells ahead of the main line. 0-1km SRH,
meanwhile, could attain values in excess of 200 m2/s2 even as
the LLJ starts to deteriorate. All that to say, any discrete
convection will likely be supercellular in nature, posing a risk
of tornadogenesis; on top of this, we`re likely to see embedded
rotation within the trailing QLCS. The primary/most widespread
threat remains damaging winds, which could occur anywhere along
the QLCS, but tornadoes remain a close second.
Improving clarity, too, on QPF...with the eastern half of the
forecast area seeing an overall reduction in expected rainfall
(to less than an inch for the I-77 corridor) but the high terrain
in particular seeing an increase now that the high-res guidance
has become available. The 12z HREF estimates of 3-4 inches in 6
hours, and over 5 in 12 hours, are in line with multiple rounds of
convection affecting favored upslope zones, particularly across
the Smokies and Balsams. Concern remains moderate regarding
flood impacts, with the latest HEFS ensemble river forecasts still
depicting mainly action stage rises at worst (with the exception
of sites in the Smokies, which simply receive so much QPF that
action to minor stage flooding isn`t out of the question).
And, with storms looking to move so quickly in a highly-sheared
environment, most zones will steer clear of even localized flash
flooding...except for isolated locations where multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall take place. That`s to say, localized hydro issues
can`t be ruled out, but aren`t expected to pose a major issue.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 219 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) A second round of thunder is possible Sunday afternoon.
2) Clear and dry conditions will persist for the first half of
the week.
3) Rain will return Thursday and Friday.
The fun doesn`t end Sunday morning. The general thinking remains
that the main QLCS will exit GSP`s forecast area to the east by a
few hours after daybreak Sunday...but most of the CAMs have slowed
down the progression of the trailing frontal boundary as it becomes
ever more distant from its parent low. In fact, the 12z HRRR and
NAMnest slow it down so much that it`s still meandering across the
I-77 corridor on Sunday afternoon...late enough that the atmosphere
manages to destabilize again over the far eastern fringe of the
forecast area, producing yet another round of thunderstorms!
It`s unclear whether this will actually happen - this is wholly
dependent on the evolution of the main system Saturday night,
how much it saps the atmosphere of its energy, and how the timing
of both the squall line and the trailing frontal boundary set up.
But if it does, more aggressive models like the RDPS once again
depict some 100-250 J/kg sbCAPE (though with significantly
less-pronounced shear/SRH) supportive of at least a few strong -
maybe even some severe - storms in this mess. But, the key here
is that confidence is extremely low.
The remainder of the forecast looks quiet enough that it can be
quickly summarized in far fewer paragraphs than it took to describe
Saturday and Sunday; with the passage of the front to our east,
expansive maritime high pressure will arrive, ushering in drier and
quieter weather for the bulk of the new workweek. Temperatures will
fall toward normal on Monday behind the front, then slowly creep
warmer each day through Wednesday as the high maintains control
of the pattern. By Wednesday night, the next chance of rain
should arrive in the form of another fairly robust cold front.
At this point, the most likely solution among long-range ensembles
still appears to have the frontal circulation break down as it
approaches the forecast area, resulting in fairly weak moisture
flux and little to no instability...so concern remains low for
any severe threat at this time...and the front may only amount to
a wetting rain and cooler temps on Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR is forecast thru this evening, with FEW
to SCT VFR stratocu under some cirrus. Moisture trapped under a low
level inversion will lead to MVFR cigs late tonight through Saturday
morning. Some guidance shows widespread IFR cigs developing around
daybreak across the NC foothills and Piedmont, but there is still
a lot of uncertainty. Cigs should lift and scatter to VFR by early
aftn. Scattered showers expected to develop near the Blue Ridge
Escarpment and spread westward across the mountains through the
day Saturday, so will include a PROB30 for SHRA at KAVL. Probs
elsewhere are too low thru 00z Sun. S to SE winds expected thru
the period at all sites, becoming gusty in the aftn.
Outlook: A strong frontal system is expected to bring showers
and thunderstorms, and associated restrictions, Saturday night
and Sunday morning. Dry high pressure returns by late Sunday and
remains through Wednesday.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ARK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
908 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm conditions will continue today as a warm front
passes to the north. A strong weather system will move through the
region this weekend, bringing gusty winds, widespread showers and
some thunderstorms, and an increased potential for flooding due to
heavy rainfall. High pressure will build into the region early next
week, bringing another extended period of dry weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Focus for the evening update was on wind gust evolution through the
late evening hours. While pressure gradient is tightening to our
west, mostly clear skies have allowed some decoupling of the boundary
layer. Therefore, latest plan view of wind gust observations is
showing a lack of gusts for pretty much our entire CWA. Have
portrayed this in the grids by nudging down the wind fields for the
first two to three hours before blending in with the stronger gusts
beginning after midnight as the first disturbance draws nearer.
Based on decent initialization, have primarily used the time-lapsed
HRRR to time the approaching line of convection currently nearing the
Mississippi River. Arrival into our western counties continues to
track near or after 5-6AM. There remains general agreement that the
storms will be rapidly decreasing in intensity as they move east into
our CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As the area of showers moves east and continues to decay over the
eastern 1/3 of CWA, a break in-between systems will be found,
possibly lasting into the afternoon hours but still with a good bit
of uncertainty. A surface low will track nne during the afternoon.
Towards 21Z, rain is expected to have overspread the southern 1/2 of
CWA and rapidly expand to cover the entire CWA towards 00Z, lasting
for the rest of the overnight hours. Rainfall during this time will
be generally moderate with heavier amounts found underneath training
maxima and the embedded thunderstorms. A solid 1-2" is expected with
higher rainfall totals likely. As of now, the best threat exists in
the eastern sections of our northern KY counties, where a flood watch
has been hoisted covering 12Z Sat through 12Z Sun. The threat of
severe thunderstorms is decreasing through time in favor of a heavy
rainfall event.
A wind advisory over the western two thirds of our area remains in
effect for Saturday given the continued tight surface pressure
gradient.
Highs will be uniformly near 70, and overnight lows will range from
the lower 40s in the northwest to the upper 50s in the southeast as a
cold front approaches from the west.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday, we expect our weather maker that impacted eastern CONUS to
begin to move up and off shore. Sunday morning showers will start to
tapper off, but a final round of scattered showers is expected
through the early afternoon. Along and south of I71, temperatures
are expected to rebound near 60 degrees, and the upper 50s north of
the I71 corridor. As the afternoon/evening progresses sunday, and
our large weather maker moves off shore, temperatures will start to
drop back into a more seasonable range in the low to mid 40s for the
whole forecast area as a weak cold front moves through. Sunday
night, into monday morning, lows will drop back down at or below
freezing for the entire forecast area North of the Ohio River, and
at or above freezing at or south of the Ohio River.
Monday, clouds will clear out of the area with plenty of sunshine.
Temperatures will also rebound nicely for the entire forecast area,
upper 50s in the Cincinnati metro area, and low to mid 50s for the
rest of the forecast area. Monday night into tuesday morning, lows
will drop back to the upper 30s for the far eastern part of the area
and low 40s for the central and western part of the forecast area.
Tuesday, a weak surface low is going to begin to move off to the
northeast around the Iowa/Illinois boarder. This will bring some
gusty winds up to 20MPH to the area, as well as increased cloud
cover, especially in the northwest portion of the forecast area.
Highs will rebound nicely throughout tuesday with highs for the
entire area expected to reach the upper 60s, maybe an isolated 70
degree reading near the Ohio River around Cincinnati. Tuesday night,
lows will dip back into the low 50s for the whole area and wind
gusts will persist.
Wednesday, a stronger surface low will track over the same areas,the
Iowa/Illinois boarder. This stronger surface low will aid in
increasing the areas wind gusts throughout the day with peak gusts
around 20-25 MPH. Temperatures will rebound near 70 degrees for the
northwest part of the area and in the mid to upper 70s for the
southern and southeast part of the area. Wednesday night into
thursday, lows will dip back into the mid 30s in the northwest part
of the area and 40s in the southwest part of the area.
Thursday, that stronger low pressure is going to continue to move
off to the northeast. This will bring us another chance of
precipitation and maybe a chance of light rain/snow mix. That
precipitation will move out of the area by the late evening. Wind
gusts will continue to increase slightly throughout the day, more in
the northern part of the forecast area with winds gusts between 25-
30 MPH expected through the area. With that system moving through, a
weaker cold front will push across the entire area dropping lows
near or just below 30 degrees.
Friday, will be on the cooler side with the entire area staying in
the low 50s to upper 40s. Sky`s will remain partly cloudy in the wake
of the weaker low and wind gusts will begin to die down back to 10-
15 MPH for the whole area.
All in all, more of the nice weather for the first half of next
work week, before becoming more seasonable in the second half.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong system approaching the region during the TAF period will bring
very gusty southerly winds through 30 hours, with increasing gusts
late tonight associated with a strong low-level jet (and accompanying
low level wind shear). Next, guidance has continued to indicate a
decaying line of showers and thunderstorms transitioning through the
terminals roughly between 09Z and 15Z.
Beyond this initial convection, a decrease or gap in shower coverage
should be noted from late morning into the early afternoon hours.
However, during this time, strong mixing will have the potential to
bring down gusts occasionally exceeding 40 knots.
Another disturbance ahead of a strong cold front will bring a
significant increase in showers starting in the mid to late
afternoon. While there could be a severe storm or two embedded in
this convection, the main concern is for periods of very heavy rain.
This will cause temporary aviation impacts due to low visibilities.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions with showers, thunderstorms, and 35kt gusts
likely into Saturday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>055-060>063-070>072-077>080.
KY...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>098.
Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT Saturday through Sunday morning for
KYZ094>100.
IN...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Campbell/McGinnis
AVIATION...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High winds expect across all of western and north central
Nebraska through Saturday afternoon
- Light precipitation is possible this afternoon through the overnight,
with the potential of an isolated thunderstorm in the
afternoon
- A brief period of snowfall may be possible overnight for
portions of northwest Nebraska and far north central Nebraska
- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Saturday
through Monday
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
The greatest concern in the short term is the strong
winds, precipitation chances and snow potential. As for
precipitation potential this afternoon and evening, confidence is
low in wetting rain or thunderstorms, with bufkit soundings
showing the lowest levels fairly dry and have been seeing a lot
of virga with the current radar echos as moisture return has
been lacking. Do feel there will be some saturation in the
lowest levels and eventually precipitation will make it to the
ground where it has been struggling, but qpf will remain light
and only expect a few hundreths. Where thunderstorms may be
possible will generally be along and east of HWY 83. Since
precipitation is expected to be light the storm mode for
thunderstorms will be Low Precip thunderstorms, thus this does
increase the chances of dry lightning in the area. This will be
a concern for fire starts combined with the strong northwest
winds. At this time dry lightning if it does occur is expected
to be isolated but can`t be ruled out.
As for the snow potential, probabilistic models continue to show
less confidence in accumulating snowfall above 1 inch, with
probabilistic percentages generally less than 50% for most
areas across the northwest Sandhills into north central Nebraska
seeing less than half an inch, with the exception being
generally along and north of HWY 20. Areas along and north of
HWY 20 could see greater than half an inch, but generally less
than 1 inch expected. There may however be impacts from the
snowfall even though amounts are expected to be low, as strong
northwest winds could create brief periods of blowing snow as
the snow is falling along with visibility reductions.
As for winds, very strong winds will continue to persist through
Saturday afternoon across all of western and north central Nebraska.
HRRR bufkit seemed to have the best handle on the winds and trended
a little more to the HRRR, upping winds just slightly across
southern portions of the CWA. Wind gust in excess of 50 mph is
expected. Along with brief periods of blowing snow potential along
and north of HWY 20, there is also the possibility of patchy blowing
dust across southwest Nebraska.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Weak ridging is expected early in the weak and will see
temperatures return to the 60s to mid 70s Sunday and Monday. A trof
will move into the region by Tuesday and will see temperatures cool
with a return of the 40s by Wednesday. Will need to continue to
monitor this system as this could potentially be another strong
system that impacts the area with precipitation chances. Depending
on the timing of the system, precipitation may be in the form of
rain or snow, but precipitation type still remains uncertain at this
time.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
An strong low pressure system will bring strong winds and
precipitation to the region through Saturday. Light rain is already
falling across portions of north central Nebraska which will
transition over to snow across northern Nebraska tonight.
Accumulations will be light, but some reductions in visibility as
well as blowing snow will be possible. Strong northwest winds with
gusts up to 50 knots will continue into the overnight as well. Winds
will slowly diminish on Saturday, but gusts over 25 knots will
continue through 00Z Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
A fire weather watch has been issued Saturday for
portions of west central Nebraska, for fire weather zones 219 and
209. Min RH values will be in the mid to upper teens Saturday
afternoon with strong northwest winds sustained at 25 to 35 mph and
gust up to 50 mph in the afternoon. Additional fire weather
concerns are expected Sunday and Monday with low min RH and
breezy winds possible will see elevated to near critical.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday for
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NEZ209-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Kulik
FIRE WEATHER...Gomez
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
656 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 639 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
- A couple rounds of significant severe weather will affect the
Mid-South over the next 30 hours or so. The first round will
occur late tonight as a strong surface low approaches the region
from the northwest. All hazards are possible including damaging
winds, tornadoes, and large hail. A couple of tornadoes could be
strong and long-tracked.
- Another round of severe weather is expected Saturday across
north Mississippi and west Tennessee. All severe hazards are
expected alongside the threat of flash flooding. Storms will
form by late morning and persist through the evening.
- Dry weather returns to the Mid-South for Sunday through Tuesday.
Temperatures will cool on Sunday before warming back into the
low to mid 70s by Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
A weakening line of showers and isolated thunderstorms has moved
into eastern Arkansas over the past hour. This activity was
anchored on a leading shortwave, embedded in the main upper low.
Significant mixing of the boundary layer has occurred this
afternoon, due to a strong low level jet. Dewpoint temperatures
have mixed down into the low to mid 50s with some locations across
northeast Mississippi down into the low to mid 40s. This has kept
the Mid- South capped and instability below 500 J/kg of MLCAPE.
Wind gusts have been hitting wind advisory criteria all afternoon,
with several 40 mph gusts observed over northeast Arkansas.
The moisture field is expected to undergo quite a bit of
moistening this evening, as dewpoints climb into the low to mid 60s
by about 6PM. This coupled with increasing height falls and a
mid-level 80 knot jet, will support severe thunderstorms. The
mode appears to be mixed mode before midnight and could transition
into a broken QLCS across our northern counties with multi-
clusters and supercells down to our south. Nonetheless, a messy
convective regime is anticipated with all hazards possible
including a long-tracked tornado or two.
The latest 18Z HRRR is now resolving the weakening showers over
eastern Arkansas and suggests that new storms will form along the
Mississippi River around 7PM, with another line of storms moving
into northeast Arkansas around 10 or 11PM. The question remains as
to how strong or severe the storms will be early near the
Mississippi River. The better confidence is currently in the
second round later as the instability will be higher, as will the
shear. Nonetheless, large looping hodographs, MLCAPE between 800
and 1500 J/kg, 60 knots of bulk shear, and 0-1 km SRH values
between 175 and 250 m2/s2 will support an all hazards threat.
Severe weather parameters appear to be well-balanced and favorable
to support a long-tracked tornado or two late tonight. Folks
should make their severe weather plans before they go to bed
tonight.
The first round of convection may not end or completely push east
of the Tennessee River as previously alluded to, as several
moving parts will be in play. The main upper low will lift into
the Great Lakes Region by early Saturday morning and may orphan
the convection over west Tennessee as the cold front stalls just
to the west of the Mississippi River. Simultaneously, a neutrally-
tilted longwave trough will dig across the Southern Plains and
push a 100 knot mid-level jet into the region. This will place
central and north central Mississippi beneath the left exit region
of the jet with widespread lift and diffluence available. There
is still some uncertainty as to how far west the threat will be
early Saturday and will largely depend on the location of the cold
front and track of the second surface low. Right now, the severe
threat appears to be as far west as the Mississippi River and over
the majority of west Tennessee and north Mississippi.
The highest confidence for a reloaded atmosphere and significant
severe thunderstorms will be over northeast Mississippi and into
portions of west Tennessee near the Tennessee River. This area is
progged to see as much as 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE build by 18Z with a
surface low tracking along a stalled front near the Mississippi
River. Winds will be sufficiently backed and upper level forcing
will be subtle enough to support discrete supercells. Storm mode
appears to remain rather discrete through late afternoon as
evidenced by several model soundings and deterministic hi-res
guidance. All hazards will be in play and strong long-tracked
tornadoes are anticipated. Additionally, storm motion will be SSW
to NNE, which suggests there could be training of storms from late
morning through early afternoon, along and east of the
Mississippi River. A moderate risk of excessive rainfall was
collaborated today and a flood watch was issued for a large
portion of north Mississippi and west Tennessee. Rainfall totals
will range from 2 to 5 inches with isolated higher amounts. This
will fall on top of the convection that happens overnight, which
could exacerbate the threat.
Storms will finally push east of the Tennessee River around
sundown on Saturday, ending the threat of severe weather.
Below normal temperatures are expected on Sunday as temperatures
struggle to climb out of the 50s areawide. A cold night is on tap
for Sunday as temperatures drop into the 30s. Dry conditions and
moderating temperatures are expected through midweek. Another
shortwave will move into the region by Wednesday with showers and
thunderstorms possible. Models are in general agreement on timing
and low instability right now, but that could change. The pattern
looks to remain active through the long term forecast.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
A few long-shadow convective towers were evident on GOES visible
imagery over east central AR, down to the Arklamiss at 2345Z.
This activity will become better organized over the next 1-2
hours and lift northeast into the MEM TRACON. There will likely
be several continuous hours of TSRA in and around MEM through
06Z. Thereafter, TSRA be more scattered, but given increased
moisture and 50-60KT storm movement, TSRA chances will remain
sufficient to carry prevailing TSRA through 10Z.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
036-048.
MO...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.
MS...Flood Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night
for MSZ003>006-009-013>017-021>024.
TN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>003-019-020-
048>051-088-089.
Flood Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night
for TNZ004-021-022-052>055-090>092.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
756 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer than normal temperatures are expected into the
weekend. This will lead to melting snowpack and increasingly
dangerous ice conditions on lakes and rivers.
- Strong winds possibly greater than 45 mph are looking to develop
across the south/southeast wind downslope areas tonight.
- Widespread rain chances this weekend before changing over to
light lake effect snow Sunday. Heavy snow is not expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Afternoon RAP analysis shows deep 978mb low pressure centered over
western KS with a strong 50-60kt LLJ core over the Southern Plains.
Strong southerly flow is present over the Midwest and Great Lakes
out ahead of this system, with 850mb winds currently up to 30-45kts.
This continues to pump warm air into the region, with temperatures
across the UP currently ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Morning/early afternoon thunderstorms and cloud cover have limited
temperatures somewhat, but as skies continue to clear from west to
east courtesy of the drier air working in behind this initial batch
of showers, temperatures should be able to peak in the 50s to lower
60s (warmest near the WI border and in the southerly downsloping
areas).
Meanwhile, SSE winds at the surface remain elevated for the rest of
the day, particularly in the higher elevation and in the favorable
downsloping spots nearer to Superior. With a steep inversion still
apparent in soundings, we may not be able to tap into those strong
40+kt winds aloft for the most part, but gusts to 20-30mph will be
more common.
Into tonight, the low tracks through the Upper Midwest while
potentially weakening ever so slightly; it should be over eastern MN
at around 980mb by 12Z Saturday. Ahead of it, the inversion weakens
while winds aloft increase to as high as 45-60kts. With a better
mixing potential, gusts around 20-30mph remain common with stronger
gusts in excess of 40mph looking more likely in the SSE downsloping
areas of the north-central and perhaps the western UP. Will go ahead
with a wind advisory for Marquette and Baraga counties as wind gusts
may reach 45mph for several hours tonight. HREF continue to show
>80% probability for advisory level gusts in the northern portions
of those counties tonight, best potential from Marquette to Big Bay,
nearer to Lake Superior.
Meanwhile, with strengthening midlevel frontogenesis on the nose of
the LLJ, another batch of showers looks to move through from around
06-12Z. With a few to several hundred j/kg elevated instability
(depending on your model of choice), thunder will be possible. Would
not be surprised if some stronger gusts mixed down with such strong
winds aloft. Otherwise, widespread, heavy rain is not looking
likely, with the heaviest amounts of a tenth to quarter-inch
expected in the eastern half of the UP.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Upper air pattern has a closed 500 mb low in western Wisconsin and
negative tilted trough in the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat which heads
northeast to north of Lake Superior by 00z Sun. Trough axis moves
across the area on Sun and then moves to the eastern U.S. 12z Mon.
Another trough then comes onshore on the west coast 00z Tue. Added
in some thunder into grids as what looks like a dry slot and similar
situation to today with some instability aloft in the area for
Saturday. Cold air starts to come in on Saturday night, but deep
moisture moves out, so heavy snow is not expected. Does looks like
with a warm front to the south on Monday that there could be some
low chance pops. Overall, did not make too many changes to the
going forecast.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the
Rockies 12z Tue with a flat ridge over the Plains and Gulf Coast 12z
Tue. Troughing moves into the Plains 12z Wed and into the eastern
U.S. 12z Thu. Another shortwave is poised then to move into the
Plains 12z Fri. Temperatures go from above normal on Tue to below
normal on Thu and near normal on Fri. Will have to watch the storm
Tue-Thu as this one will have colder air over the area and we are
not in the warm sector for this one. This storm could produce some
high winds and heavy snowfall over the area. Track of sfc low goes
front north of St. Joseph, Missouri 12z Wed to near Cheboygan, MI
12z Thu according to the manual sfc progs map. This would be a
perfect track for heavy snow over our area. Something to watch
indeed.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 756 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Main aviation threats are persistent low-level wind shear conditions
through at least midday Saturday, potential for brief downpours late
tonight, gusty southerly winds to 20-30kt, and possible low MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsby Saturday afternoon. A strong southerly low-level jet of 40-
50 kt will be in place through the night to around midday Saturday
as a strong spring storm approaches from the south. This jet will
conspire with a low-level inversion to result in LLWS conditions,
although the inversion may mix out at times resulting in wind gusts
at the surface reaching 20-30 kt. There is about a 20% chance for
higher gusts to 40 kt Saturday afternoon at SAW if clearing occurs
allowing for deeper mixing than indicated.
As far as precipitation, a weakening complex of showers and
thunderstorms will approach from the south late tonight, reaching
the terminals roughly 06-12Z. This is not expected to be long-lived
due to an encroaching dry slot, but brief heavy downpours are
possible, and brief IFR vsby cannot be ruled out in showers. The
chance for thunderstorms is less than 30% so TS mention was not
included in the TAFs at this time. Ahead of these showers, VFR
conditions prevail.
Showers and lower cigs will spread back in Saturday afternoon with
MVFR conditions prevailing (and about a 10-30% chance of IFR cigs).
SAW could see lower MVFR conditions earlier in the morning hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Southeast to east winds of 20 to 30 knots are expected to continue
tonight as a low deepens and heads northeast towards Minnesota
tonight. This low looks to possibly bring some thunderstorms tonight
through Saturday. West to southwest gales 35 to 40 knots are
expected to develop tonight with the wind becoming northwest late.
The wind diminishes to 20 to 30 knots on Sunday. As high pressure
moves back in from the west Sunday evening, expect the winds to
quickly dwindle, becoming light at 20 knots or less by early Monday
morning as another Clipper approaches from the west. The winds look
to remain light over Lake Superior until the middle of next week
when a strong Colorado low lifts towards the Great Lakes region.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
MIZ004-005.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday to 5 AM EDT /4
AM CDT/ Sunday for LSZ162-240>244-263-264.
Gale Warning from 8 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
LSZ245>251-265>267.
Lake Michigan...
Gale Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Thompson
MARINE...07
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1055 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1049 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
- Strong to severe thunderstorms bring chances for damaging
winds, large hail, flooding, and tornadoes late tonight through
early Saturday morning, and again, Saturday afternoon through
the evening.
- Gusty non-thunderstorm winds between 35 to 40 mph through
Saturday evening.
- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will bring locally heavy
rain increasing the risk for flooding in urban, low-lying, and
poor drainage areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1110 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Forecast remains on track for strong to severe thunderstorms late
tonight through Saturday morning and again Saturday afternoon
through the evening. Now is the time make preparations by
securing any loose objects outside, reviewing your shelter
locations, preparing your emergency kit, charging devices, and
ensuring you have more than one way to receive warnings. As
always, please stay up to date with the latest forecasts and
spread the message to your friends and family.
Main storm mode looks to be a QLCS or linear system moving in
after midnight tonight. There is the potential for semi-discrete
supercells with stronger upper-level flow and deep-layer shear.
In general, all modes of severe weather possible. A mid-level
shortwave trough continues to strengthen as it lifts NE. Winds
will be on the increase this afternoon into tonight. Gusts between
40 to 50 mph are possible after midnight as the low level jet
strengthens overhead and winds mix down to the surface. A Wind
Advisory has been issued for tonight into early Saturday morning.
Remember, these will be non-thunderstorm winds so any winds
related to surrounding thunderstorms will be higher.
Satellite imagery shows storms firing off over AR and MO and
moving E ahead of an advancing dryline. These storms will
continue to expand and move E as the mid-level jet brings
additional moisture up into the MS Valley. Storm relative
helicities rapidly increasing in tandem with the southerly LLJ
cranking up over 60 kts tonight, increasing the risk for
tornadoes. That said, one con to the severe weather setup is the
presence of an elevated area of CIN (aka the cap) overnight. This
would obviously limit storms severity. Mostly likely scenario
though looks like the LLJ kicks in and we have enough forcing to
overcome the cap. As you move E of I-65, most convection looks to
outrun the low-level moisture possibly decreasing storm activity,
but there still looks to be a lot of shear in place that could
keep storms severe in nature going into Saturday morning.
Models have definitely trended up with rainfall over Middle TN.
Right now, looking at storm total amounts between 2 to 5 inches
through Sunday with isolated higher amounts possible. Greatest
impacts would be heavy rain over short periods leading to flash
flooding of urban areas and poor drainage areas. A broad Flood
Watch has been issued to cover these concerns.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1110 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Latest timing suggests that most storm activity will be moved out
of the area come Saturday night. Some lingering showers and
thunderstorms look possible in the evening and overnight. By
Sunday, some relief arrives with high pressure building over. A
cold front moves through Sunday causing overnight temperatures to
reach freezing and only warm into the 50s and 60s come Monday.
Warm weather returns Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the mid
70s. Fire weather concerns return mid next week as warm, dry, and
breezy conditions return. Next chance of rain arrives Wednesday
night as an upper trough moves E across the plains and an
associated surface low develops and brings a cold front across
Middle TN.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Based much of the TAFs on the latest HRRR model runs. VFR
conditions at the beginning of the TAF will deteriorate to
MVFR/IFR from 08-12Z as SHRA/TSRA move across airports.
Improvement back to MVFR/VFR is expected by late morning/early
afternoon, but additional SHRA/TSRA with MVFR/IFR vis/cigs and
gusts up to 40 knots will impact airports Saturday late
afternoon/evening. Gusty south winds up to 30 knots will continue
through Saturday afternoon before subsiding and becoming
southwesterly Saturday evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 64 72 53 62 / 80 100 100 50
Clarksville 64 72 48 57 / 90 100 100 30
Crossville 56 67 52 62 / 50 90 100 70
Columbia 61 70 51 61 / 80 100 100 40
Cookeville 59 68 52 60 / 60 90 100 70
Jamestown 57 68 52 62 / 50 90 100 70
Lawrenceburg 61 70 52 62 / 80 100 100 40
Murfreesboro 61 71 52 62 / 70 100 100 50
Waverly 61 69 47 56 / 90 100 100 30
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CDT Saturday night for TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Saturday through late Saturday night
for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Shamburger
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
629 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 4 AM for gusts of
40-50 mph.
- All modes of significant severe weather are expected with tonight`s
storms, large hail (2+ inches), damaging winds of 70-80+ mph,
and significant tornadoes (EF2+).
- Saturday maintains a severe threat during the morning into the
early afternoon. All modes of severe remain possible. This is
mainly across western KY and southwest IN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
A strong, negatively tilted 500mb trof will move through the upper
midwest this evening and tonight. A strong 978-976mb sfc low will
track through eastern NE into MN this evening and tonight. We are
warm sectored today throughout the day w/a dry line to our west.
Windy conditions today ahead of this system with gusts of 40-50 mph.
A Wind Advisory is in effect through 4am.
Very concerning situation unfolding tonight with all modes of
significant severe possible. Models are setting up further west and
timing has slowed a little. Dew points are still forecast to surge
northward from southern AR over the next several hours and have a 70-
90% chance of reaching or exceeding 60 degrees. SBCAPE is still
around 1,000-2,000 J/kg. 0-1 km SRH is rather high at around 300+
m2/s2, and 0-3 km SRH is 600+ m2/s2. STP in the HRRR is 7-8. Bulk
shear is 60+ kts. Mid level lapse rates are still rather steep at
7.5-8 degC. Models are still showing a broken line of storms moving
through which means both linear dynamics and supercells are
possible. All hazards are possible wtih 70-80+ mph damaging winds,
large hail (2+ inches), and significant tornadoes (EF2+) some of
which could be long track. These storms will also be moving rather
quickly at around 60-70 mph. Storms are expected to weaken some as
they move further east late tonight as dewpoints drop off and
instability decreases.
How tonight evolves will determine how tomorrow plays out. A
secondary system comes up from the south tomorrow and brings storms
to eastern portions of the area (mainly the KY pennyrile and
southwest IN). The best instability is in the morning to early
afternoon with about 1,000-1,500 J/kg of MUCAPE which is when we
could see severe storms (SPC slight risk). There is also the
possibility for training storms. Some areas could see 1-2" of rain
with flash flooding possible and we are in a slight (level 2 of 4)
for the excessive rainfall outlook.
Behind the cold front with this system highs will fall back into the
50s for Sunday. Upper level ridging builds in early next week and
temperatures then moderate back into the 60s and 70s. Another trof
and sfc low come through on Wednesday bringing more storms to the
area along with a cold front Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
A strong storm system is on track to bring widespread severe
weather tonight across the region. Damaging winds, large hail,
and tornadoes will be possible, with the greatest risk across
the western terminals. Intermittent MVFR cigs and IFR/MVFR vsby
reductions will be possible during thunderstorms. There is some
uncertainly if discrete supercells will develop on the onset
ahead of a squall line that will move from west to east between
03-11z. Winds will be south between 15-25 kts with gusts around
30 kts outside of thunderstorms.
Storms clear out Saturday morning before additional showers and
thunderstorms develop into the afternoon. There is uncertainty
in how far east a frontal boundary will progress, but the
greatest risk for additional thunderstorms that can turn strong
to severe will be across KEVV/KOWB. Additional MVFR cigs and
vsby reductions will be possible during thunderstorms before the
aformentioned storm system begins to clear out towards the end
of the TAF period. Winds will be south between 5-15 kts with
gusts around 20 kts in the morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
IN...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT /5 AM EDT/ Saturday for INZ081-
082-085>088.
KY...Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...DW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
613 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High Winds, Thunderstorms, and Fire Danger will persist
through this afternoon.
- Elevated fire danger is forecast for Saturday through Monday.
- There is a 30% to 60% chance for rain and snow late Tuesday
night and Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
19Z water vapor imagery showed the the upper low over south central
KS with the surface low across northwest KS. Surface obs showed low
level moisture return was confined to far eastern KS and the CU
field on satellite seems to highlight this moisture return. Of note
is the suppression of CU within the band of dust lofted by the
strong winds.
There is little change to the forecast. Strong winds look to impact
eastern KS through the afternoon and dewpoints in the teens across
south central KS look to rotate through east central KS causing very
low RH values as the winds are at their strongest. So the wind
advisory, high wind warning and red flag warning continue unchanged.
The risk for severe weather looks to lift north of the area by 5pm
as the dry slot works its way into eastern KS. And winds should
gradually diminish this evening as the boundary layer begins to cool
and mixing becomes less intense. There is some concern for winds to
remain strong across north central KS this evening where there is no
advisory. Sustained speeds are forecast to be 20 to 30 MPH and gusts
of 45 MPH. But the HRRR and RAP suggest this will be short lived
with forecast soundings suggesting the stronger gusts may only make
it to the surface for an hour or so between 12 and 3am. So will hold
off on issuing a new wind advisory at this time.
The upper trough is progged to remain over the area through the day
Saturday with a strong pressure gradient keeping gusty northwest
winds in place. However dry air moving in should preclude any precip
chances. Winds finally calm by Sunday with cool temps as surface
high pressure weakens. The next system is progged to impact at least
north central and northeast KS Tuesday night and Wednesday. The
operational models are in reasonable agreement with a low pressure
system and potential TROWAL on the back side of the low on
Wednesday. The NBM has some 30 to 60 percent chance POPs which seems
reasonable based off the operational models. There is still some
spread from the 00Z ensembles in temps to get to excited about snow
amounts at this time. But operational solutions with 850MB temps
falling well below freezing on the back side, certainly raises the
antenna for some winter hazards on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
MVFR visibilities for the blowing dust, perhaps also mixed with
smoke at times through at least 04Z before veering to the west
and gradually northwest as the fropa sweeps across terminals.
Behind the fropa, VFR returns with west winds veering to the
northwest, increasing from 15 to 25 kts sustained, gusting to
around 30 kts for the remainder of the forecast period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thur Mar 13 2025
Fire weather will be a problem for several days after today`s red
flag warning. Gusty northwest winds and dry air moving in Saturday
afternoon could create red flag conditions for north central Kansas.
Then warming temperatures and limited moisture for Sunday and Monday
are expected to cause elevated fire danger. Although winds are
forecast to be much weaker than today.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Prieto
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters
CLIMATE...Wolters