Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/13/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
323 PM PDT Wed Mar 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Risk for very slippery road conditions will increase
tonight through Thursday morning as the potential for small hail
and low elevation heavy snow showers increase. A brief break is
anticipated Thursday evening before the next round of low
elevation snow arrives by Friday morning. Snow levels should rise
over the weekend as a moderate atmospheric river storm brings an
increase risk for heavy rain and strong winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Frontal boundary moving across the area today has
been producing widespread moderate to locally rainfall. As of 2
PM, 24 hour totals generally ranged from 0.50 to 1.0in with
higher amounts in the King Range (2.00-2.50) and 1.0 to 1.5
inches in Del Norte. Prime concern going into tonight and Thu
is lowering snow levels and potential for accumulations above
1500-2500 feet. Precip rates and coverage will fall off tonight
in the showery air mass regime after frontal passage, however
impacts will be much greater as snow levels plummet to 1500-2000
feet by early Thu. Thus we hoisted a winter weather advisory for
most all interior zones tonight/early Thu AM where just 1-2
inches could create slippery driving condition and impact travel
on major highways. Snow levels should rise up during the day on
Thursday and potential for localized intense precip rates should
diminish in the afternoon. HRRR is by far the most aggressive
with heavier precip rates compared to other CAMS in the HREF.
A winter storm warning remains in effect for Trinity County with
hefty accumulations of a foot or more likely above 3500 feet.
Snow accumulations for lower elevations are less certain for
Trinity tonight behind the frontal boundary in the showery air
mass. Westerly upslope flow into the coastal ranges of Del Norte
and Humboldt should support snow amounts sufficient for a winter
weather advisory with totals of 3-5 inches above 2000-2500 feet
by 11 AM Thu. This will have significant impact on travel over
Berry Summit on 299 as well as route 36 around Dinsmore. Confidence
is less for Del Norte on route 199 where an inch or two could
accumulate by 11 AM Thu.
Another hazard tonight into Thu is small hail with convective
storms. Impacts may be much greater considering how rapidly hail
accumulates in what may seem like safe driving conditions. We may
end up needing a winter weather advisory for coastal areas if the
hail accumulates, causing multiple pile ups. We will continue to
message this insidious hazard via social media outlets and a
weather story graphic on our webpage. Convective allowing models
continue to show simulate composite reflectivities over 40dBz and
we will need to monitor the activity for the possibility of
strong storms and perhaps waterspouts in the lee of Cape
Mendocino/around Shelter Cove.
After a brief break Thu evening, another storm with low snow levels
(1500-2500 feet) is forecast to arrive quickly late Thu night
into Friday morning. Snow levels will start out lower with this
next round of precip and impacts on major travel corridors and
populations will likely be greater even though overall snow
amounts will be lower compared to today`s storm.
We may see a break in the active and wet weather on Saturday as a
ridge pumps up over the area. An atmospheric river storm (AR1/AR2)
will likely bring another bout of moderate to heavy rain and
possibly hefty high mountain snow as well as strong winds toward
the latter portion of the weekend and early next week. Snow levels
should rise up over the weekend, however travel impacts above
4000-4500 feet are possible. There is still a great deal of variability
and spread with the timing and magnitude of winds with this next
storm and fine details are difficult to resolve multiple days out.
Stay tuned for updates. Another break in the wet and active
weather is forecast for Tuesday as a transient ridge builds. The
active flow pattern with periods of precip will probably continue
mid to late week next before more stout ridging aloft returns. DB
&&
.AVIATION...A cold front, developed into a frontal wave and
ushered in much rain today. Shortly after noonday, the frontal
wave began to move onto the North Coast. Therefore, airport
impacts became more substantial due to Cig/Vis lowering and rain
intensities becoming greater. A threatening flight hazard today
was LLWS, associated with a low level jet, ahead of the front. The
LLWS hazard diminished as the wave moved onshore. Surface winds
were less along the coast as the pressure gradient was more
relaxed around a low center off the Del Norte Coast...and
associated with the frontal wave. However, the gradient was
greater over the Mendocino Interior resulting in continue gusty
winds at UKI. As rain persisted today, embedded showers were
frequent along the North Coast. These showers, some heavy, will
bring a few periods of IFR conditions to the coastal terminals.
Convection possibilities will be greater in the evening as
instability increases. VCTS is appropriate to be added to the
coastal TAFs tonight. /TA
&&
.MARINE...A strong frontal system passed through this waters this
morning and gale to strong gale criteria were met in all waters.
Winds have eased behind an area of low pressure which followed the
front, and the heightened steep, wind driven seas will continue to
slowly subside. The southerly winds became quite strong in the
southern zones today as the low moved ashore, and steep, hazardous
seas are expected in those zones into the late afternoon. Seas are
not likely to drop below 10 ft as a 14 second WNW swell builds to 10-
12 ft through Thursday. Winds turn northwest up to 20 kts tonight
behind the front. Winds will only briefly ease Thursday before
southerly winds increase again Thursday night into Friday with the
next strong frontal system. Gale strength winds are forecast, and
Gale Watches are up for all zones. As the steep wind driven
southerly waves subside, a steep westerly swell will then build in
Friday evening at around 12-14 ft at 12 seconds and may contribute
to a chaotic sea state. Southerly winds are then forecast to once
again increase Saturday through Sunday, and gale conditions with
potential steep and hazardous seas look likely again with that
frontal system. JJW
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM
PDT Thursday for CAZ102-105.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
evening for CAZ102-105-111-114.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ104>106.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM
PDT Thursday for CAZ104-106-110-111-113>115.
Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ107-
108.
Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
evening for CAZ107-108.
Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ109-110-
112-113-115.
Winter Storm Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
afternoon for CAZ110-115.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for PZZ450-
470.
Gale Warning until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ455-475.
&&
$$
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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
900 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
Deep layer shortwave in OK/TX will rapidly trek east tonight
spreading high clouds into the region. With a tightening pressure
gradient at the surface, south to southwest flow will persist at
times at 5-10kt, keeping temperatures on the mild side in the
lower to middle 50s for most areas. The exception will be the
eastern valleys where the sky remains clear and flow is light or
calm the longest. So in these areas, lows will be in the upper
40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
The wave will swing a negative tilted spoke of vorticity and
moisture in mid levels through Thursday morning into the midday
hours. This may generate some shower activity, and possibly a
storm or two, but the HRRR suggests the main area of thunderstorms
now in east TX (and handled by the HRRR rather well currently)
will push east through southern AR, central MS, into mainly
southern AL. While the ARW and others suggest a more solid band
further north into north AL. Another pocket of convection will
generate near the center of the low through northern MS eventually
reaching northwest AL during the afternoon hours. These storms
may produce hail as they generally glide east-southeast, mainly
into central AL during the evening hours. So overall, the greatest
risk of strong thunderstorms may be to our south on Thursday, but
our southwest counties may have a low potential for a strong
storm or two with hail potential. Given the clouds and
precipitation, high temperatures Thursday will be held into the
lower 70s in valley locations and upper 60s atop the higher
elevations.
Friday still looks to be a warm and breezy day as the long
predicted surface cyclone emerges in KS and southern NE. High
temperatures will easily climb into the upper 70s to around 80.
Southerly winds will gust at 20-25 mph at times. Dew points will
climb into the middle to upper 50s, although afternoon mixing may
dip them back into the lower 50s.
...Friday Night...
Not much change in thinking for Friday night. The EML will
overspread the lower MS valley entering the TN valley Friday
night. This will provide steep mid level lapse rates atop a
capping inversion. With the main upper trough axis and -divQ
field lifting well north east into the upper Midwest and Great
Lakes, QG forcing will be limited further south. However, many
models indicate isolated to scattered cellular development after
06Z, and especially after 09Z across MS spreading northeast into
AL and middle TN. With the deeply sheared environment and
favorable hodograph, and MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, supercells are
indeed the favored storm type.
...Saturday and Saturday Night...
On Saturday, a negatively stacked low pressure system will push
northeast towards the Great Lakes Region with a deep upper level
trough located across the southern Plains. A cold front
positioned to the south of the low will be draped down from the
Midwest into the MS River Valley. By Saturday morning, a sfc meso-
low is forecast to develop in central MS and lift to the
northeast. Showers and storms will develop ahead of this sfc
cyclone in an environment primed for severe storms.
Ensemble model guidance shows a mean 750-1000 J/kg of CAPE with
some members indicating over 1500 J/kg Saturday morning. Despite some
potential morning convection, instability is forecast to increase
through the morning hours and into the afternoon. By around
lunchtime, low level wind fields begin to ramp up increasing to 70-80
kts at 850 mb with 0-1 km shear between 35-45 kts. This environment
would be favorable for supercells. Given the good overlap of
instability and shear, tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind gusts are
all possible.
Flash flooding may also become a concern given the potential for
multiple rounds of thunderstorms. The first round being the
supercells and the second the line of storms along the front. PWs
increase to around 1.5 inches which would indicate heavy rain
potential. Current forecast has between 2-3 inches areawide with
locally higher amounts in the most intense thunderstorms. Showers and
storms will clear the area around midnight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
With the powerful frontal system located along the East Coast on
Sunday a much needed tranquil period of weather is forecast for the
Tennessee Valley through the long term forecast period. Cooler and
drier conditions return on Sunday with highs in the low 60s. As we
start next week, the upper level trough axis pushes further off the
East Coast which will help usher in a longwave upper level ridge
into the central CONUS. Northwest flow continues on Monday resulting
in highs once again in the 60s, but sfc winds back to the southwest
by Tuesday and Wednesday. This results in temperatures increasing
into the low 70s as we head into the middle of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
VFR flight weather conditions are expected through 09-10Z before
ceilings of 020-025agl (MVFR) arrive. Scattered -SHRA and possibly
a few TSRA will occur from 14-20Z from west to east across north
AL and southern middle TN as a fast moving upper level low
pressure system pushes east through the region. A return to VFR
conditions is expected after 18Z-19Z.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17/GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...17
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
842 PM PDT Wed Mar 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...12/715 PM.
A strong storm will move across the area tonight with periods of
heavy rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds. Thursday will continue
to be unsettled with periodic showers, a chance of thunderstorms, periods
of heavy rain and lower elevation snow, but with some sunny
breaks as well. Light showers expected Friday then dry and warmer
over the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...12/835 PM.
***UPDATE***
The warm front did not really live up to advanced billing with
most of the area seeing mostly dry conditions. The foothills and
coastal slopes saw a little more rain. Over all about a tenth of
an inch fell across the flatter portions of the csts/vlys and a
third to locally 2 thirds of an inch across the coastal slopes of
VTA and SBA counties. Max temps were about 12 degrees under
normals today with cst/vly temps coming in a few degrees either
side of 60.
The main front is over the Central Coast and is living up to
expectations with heavy rainfall, waterspouts, downbursts and
strong straight line winds. No lightning has been observed yet,
but TSTMs are a possibility with this front as well.
Frontal timing by way of the latest HRRR shows it over SBA city
between 9 and 10pm, VTA county between 1030pm and 200am and LA
county between 200am and 600am.
Satellite shows plenty of convection under the upper low to the
west of SLO county and this bodes well for scattered convection
tomorrow.
Forecast was massaged with rain chances and clouds.
***From Previous Discussion***
This storm will pack quite a wallop despite it`s short duration
as a strong southerly low level jet will interact with a narrow
but potent frontal band with PW`s projected to be close to 1.2".
So the necessary ingredients will be in place to generate a 3 to 6
hour period of very heavy rain tonight, especially near and on
the south facing mountain slopes from Santa Barbara to LA County.
Hi res ensembles have been consistent showing a 60-80% chance of
rain rates reaching a half inch per hour somewhere in those
upslope areas and a 10-20% chance of hourly rates close to an inch
per hour. Sub-hourly rain rates may be just as or perhaps even
more important to monitor as it`s likely those will be exceeded as
well. Strong winds at times are expected, especially interior SLO
County.
Thunderstorms are possible as well, though the best chances for
those will likely be following the frontal passage Thursday as the
colder and more unstable air moves in. PW`s drop about 50% during
this phase of the storm but with the colder and more unstable air
present periods of very heavy rain, along with small hail, gusty
winds, and possibly even a waterspout or small tornado are all
possible through the day so the threat of flooding and debris
flows will continue through at least Thursday afternoon.
Snow levels will stay at or above 6000 feet for most of the night
but then will fall rapidly Thursday down to around 3000 feet.
There may be some light accumulations on some of the lower
mountain passes including the Grapevine on Interstate 5, highway
14 and 33, as well as possibly Highway 154 over San Marcos Pass,
and some of the Santa Lucias. Up to 1 to 2 feet of snow expected
above 6000 feet with lighter amounts below that.
Showers are expected to decrease late in the day and evening
Thursday. However, another area of showers is expected to move
through Friday into early Saturday. Additional amounts are
expected to from around a half inch north of Pt Conception to
around a quarter inch or less south.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...12/211 PM.
A weak high pressure ridge will bring a return to dry and warmer
weather late Saturday into Sunday. Another system will arrive late
Sunday night into Monday with another round of mostly light
showers with little to no impacts. Still some uncertainty with
this one as some of the ensemble solutions keep most of the
precipitation north of Pt Conception. The rest of the week looks
dry and slightly warmer. Some gusty northerly winds possible
Tuesday and Wednesday, with small chances of a weak Santa Ana.
&&
.AVIATION...12/2309Z.
At 2255Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.
Overall, low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF package. Potent
cold front will sweep across all sites from 00Z-12Z, bringing
moderate to heavy rainfall and CIG/VSBY restrictions. However, low
confidence in exact flight categories with front (could range
from MVFR to LIFR) and only moderate confidence in timing of
rain/flight category changes (+/- 2 hours of current forecasts).
After 12Z, precipitation will turn showery and flight categories
will improve to MVFR/VFR levels, but confidence in timing of
category changes will remain low. Also, gusty westerly winds can
be expected Thursday morning through the afternoon behind the
frontal passage.
There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms for all sites through
the TAF period. Any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of
brief heavy rain, small hail, gusty and erratic winds and frequent
lightning.
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. High confidence in
cold front passage overnight, but low confidence in flight
categories associated with front and moderate confidence in timing
of frontal passage/flight category changes (could be +/- 2 hours
of current forecasts). Moderate confidence in southeasterly winds
10-15 knots through 11Z, then switch to gusty westerly winds
after 11Z behind front as flight categories improve. There is a
10-20% chance of thunderstorms through the period.
KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. High confidence in
cold front passage overnight, but low confidence in flight
categories associated with front and moderate confidence in timing
of frontal passage/flight category changes (could be +/- 2 hours
of current forecasts). There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms
through the period.
&&
.MARINE...12/800pm.
Hazardous sea conditions will continue through Friday. Stay in safe harbor.
Wait for the weekend with improved conditions.
Very confused seas will continue through Thursday, with both
long period northwest to west swell and short period southwest
swell along with southerly wind waves.
A moderate to strong cold front currently moving into the western
Santa Barbara channel will move through the area from through the
rest of the waters overnight. overnight hours. All areas will see
at least a few hours of high end Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
south winds today, with low end Gale Force winds expected north
of Point Conception. For the waters south of Point Conception,
there is a 40-50% chance of brief Gale Force winds as the front
passes through the region, but winds will be localized and short
lived, thus a Gale Warning will not be issued at the moment. Rain
will be heavy at times, with a chance of thunderstorms (through
Thursday afternoon) and associated hazards like locally strong
winds, lightning, and waterspouts.
Post-frontal west to northwest winds will quickly form later
tonight into Thursday, with a 40-60% chance of reaching Gale Force
south of Point Conception. Best chances in zones PZZ650/655
especially for the nearshore waters from Point Mugu to Santa
Monica, and the San Pedro Channel.
Another storm will move through the area on Friday, with another
round of gusty south winds and post frontal west to northwest
winds. Winds should be weaker than today/Thursday, but SCA-levels
are likely over most waters.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM PDT this evening
for zones 38-340>343-346>349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday afternoon for
zones 87-88-349>352-354>358-362-366>375-378>380-548. (See LAXFFALOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Friday for zones
340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
High Wind Warning remains in effect until 2 AM PDT Thursday
for zones 344-345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 5 AM PDT
Saturday for zones 353-376>382. (See LAXWSWLOX).
High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 AM Thursday to 3 PM PDT
Friday for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 AM PDT Thursday for
zones 369-370-375. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory now in effect until midnight PDT tonight for
zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory now in effect from midnight tonight to 6 AM PDT
Thursday for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PDT Thursday for
zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Watch in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for zones 650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Thursday for
zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...Phillips/Lewis/Black
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox
forecast discussion will be broken up by day.
Late Tonight into Thursday - a stout shortwave trough will dig
across the ArkLaTex region. The most recent CAMs depict showers
and thunderstorms developing over east central Texas this
evening, eventually congealing into a bowing line segment. The
best severe parameters exist over central Mississippi overnight,
with the Mid-South centered underneath the upper level low.
Locally, storms will be hindered by decreasing shear and lapse
rates. Therefore, expect any storms tonight to become outflow
dominate, posing a low (5%) severe storm risk. The greater chances
for severe storm development occur Thursday morning as daytime
heating quickly allows for SBCAPE values to increase to about 400
J/kg by mid-morning. The 18Z HRRR depicts a secondary line of
storms developing over north MS after sunrise, trekking southeast
into Alabama. The greatest threat with these storms will be
damaging winds and hail.
Friday - A rather concerning synoptic pattern emerges on Friday
as a strong, negatively tilted trough ejects from the Rockies. At
the surface, dewpoints begin increasing to the upper 50s and low
60s by midday. The exact northward extend of moisture availability
remains uncertain due to a southerly shift in 60s dewpoints on
the GFS and ECMWF. Regardless, guidance continues to depict a line
of storms developing over the Midwest, pushing eastward into the
evening. The greatest uncertainty with this line lies in the
southerly portion, as storms may struggle to overcome a capping
inversion. Both the GFS and ECMWF develop a cap by Friday morning.
However, each solution varies widely in airmass modification
throughout the day. In fact, the ECMWF remains the more bullish of
the two as it favors a southern extent QLCS that moves through an
environment comprised of 700-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and bulk shear
on the order of 65 kts. On the other hand, the GFS struggles to
initialize storms this far south and favors a more persistent cap.
Despite model differences, it is important to note that any
storms that do move into the area will likely experience
significant upscale growth, posing a damaging wind and tornado
threat into the overnight hours.
Saturday - Quickly on the heels of Friday`s trough, a secondary
trough emerges over the Gulf Coast Region on Saturday. Moisture
availability will surge over north MS on Saturday, with many
solutions depicting mid 60s dewpoints in place by midday. In
addition, severe parameters become even more conducive for severe
storm development as lapse rates exceed 7.0 C/km, SBCAPE rises above
1500 J/kg and bulk shear nears 60 kts. One thing to watch on
Saturday is the potential for a contaminated warm sector as large
areas of convection kick off in the morning. In fact, both the GFS
and ECMWF depict the best severe parameters waning by midday due
to multiple rounds of convection in the early morning. However,
areas in northeast MS appear to quickly recover after the morning
convection. Looping hodographs suggest potential supercell
development in the afternoon and evening. As such, the Storm
Prediction Center continues to keep extreme northeast MS in a 30%
(equivalent to an Enhanced Risk) area on their Day 4 outlook. All
severe weather hazards are at play for northeast MS on Saturday.
As we move into this active pattern, we suggest you ensure you
have multiple ways to receive warnings. Check your weather radio
batteries and monitor the forecast for changes.
ANS
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
VFR conditions will remain across the airspace through much of the
TAF period. The biggest question this issuance remains timing and
intensity of convection tomorrow morning with the movement of an
upper low. Previous PROB30s were changed to TEMPOs at MEM and TUP
as subsequent CAM runs have aligned decently on timing and
placement of the upper low. As thunderstorms move across
terminals, a brief drop to MVFR will likely occur. Wind gusts, up
to 20 kts, will drop in and out this evening, ahead of convection.
Otherwise, south winds will be predominately sub 10 kts.
AEH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AEH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
856 PM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build from the southern states to near Bermuda
ahead of a moisture-starved mid and upper-level disturbance that
will move across the Carolinas Thursday and Thursday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...
Sunny and dry through tonight. Temperatures this afternoon are well
into the mid to upper 70s, a few warmer spots could see 80 degrees.
High pressure remains over the area as a weak upper level short wave
shifts across the TN/OH valley this afternoon and evening. A few
high clouds will move in and out of the area late this afternoon and
early evening. RH values still expected to drop into the upper teens
to low 20s this afternoon across much of the western Piedmont and
portions of the Sandhills. The IFD statement will continue through
at least 8pm this evening. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper
40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM Wednesday...
A mid/upper level trough will move across the region Thursday with
increased moisture in the atmosphere. However, Thursday is expected
to be dry. We will see some mid to high clouds move across the
region mid morning through early evening which will result in
slightly cooler temperatures than Wednesday. Highs will range from
low 70s near the VA/NC border to mid upper 70s elsewhere. Lows will
be similar to Wednesday nights, ranging from the mid/upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
As of 315 PM Wednesday...
* A strong cold front will bring strong winds and a threat for
severe storms/squall line Sunday...
* Unseasonably warm through much of the period...
Friday: In the wake of the exiting low-amplitude/sheared shortwave
trough, shortwave ridging will briefly build over the SE US Friday.
The stalled sfc front across the area will quickly retreat north as
a warm front during the day. Due to the dry stable air in place, dry
conditions should persist with a continuation of warm/mild
temperatures. Highs ranging from lower/mid 70s north to upper
70s/near 80 south.
Saturday: The eastward advancement of the strong upper trough into
the Central US and MS Valley will kick the mid/upper level offshore
early in the day. Strengthening southerly flow and associated
moisture transport between offshore Bermuda high pressure and the
upstream trough/cold front will result in some weak buoyancy and
chance of some diurnally driven isolated to widely scattered shower
activity. Otherwise, becoming breezy and a few degrees warmer than
Friday. Highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Saturday night and Sunday: A strong upper trough will advance east
into the region late Sunday and into the day on Monday. Strong deep-
layer southwesterly flow ahead of the trough, highlighted by a 100kt
H5 jet and a 60-70 kt wind maximum at H8, will precede the passage
of a cold front that will cross the area Sunday night. Even outside
of any storms, these strong background flow will result in gusts of
30-40 mph at times late Saturday and Sunday.
Weak destabilization is possible across the area as BL dewpoints
increase into the lower/mid 60s. Convective onset/timing will likely
play a critical role in how the lead convective line evolves as it
moves east through the area with an earlier onset likely to temper
or restrict severe chances to eastern portions of the forecast area.
Given, strong, cyclonic curved hodographs, swaths of strong to
severe gusts and supercell capable of producing tornadoes is
possible. Additionally, the development of a secondary band of
showers/storms is possible along the actual cold front as it moves
east through the area Sunday evening/night. There remains timing
discrepancies in the termination of PoPs across the area, with some
of the slower solutions keeping precip across eastern NC into the
day on Monday.
Storm total rainfall of 1-2 inches could lead to some
isolated/localized instances of minor flooding, mainly in urban/poor
drainage environments.
Monday through Wednesday: A period of of light ana-frontal rain
could linger across eastern NC early Monday . Otherwise, drying out
behind the exiting trough. Temperatures will cool down briefly to
near normal Monday/Monday night only to quickly return to well-above
normal readings(75-80 F) by mid week as the next trough/cold front
approaches from the west. Rain chances could return as early as
Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 830 PM Wednesday...
High pressure and a related dry, continental air mass over the South
Atlantic states will favor VFR weather conditions in cntl NC through
Thu.
However, there were multiple pilot reports of smoke and/or haze, and
restrictions to visibility at flight levels between 3000-8000 ft AGL
Wed afternoon, around a wildfire ("Falls Dam") centered about 20
miles southwest of HBI, or about 10 miles southeast of VUJ. A
combination of smoke from that fire and others over the Southeast,
including from a few prescribed/controlled burns over the NC
Sandhills, may marginally restrict surface visibility at RDU tonight
based on extrapolation of those plumes from late afternoon visible
satellite imagery and also recent HRRR model forecasts of surface
smoke.
A weakening and moisture-starved mid and upper-level disturbance will
result in an increase in mid/upr-level moisture and clouds on Thu,
but associated ceilings should remain at or above 15 thousand ft.
Outlook: An area of IFR stratus will develop behind a backdoor cold
front from sern and srn VA swwd into nrn NC Fri morning; and these
clouds and ceilings may reach RWI, INT, and GSO before lifting to
VFR with daytime heating through midday Fri. Swly flow will then
strengthen and transport moisture into the Carolinas by this
weekend, with an associated chance of IFR-MVFR stratus Sat morning
and light showers Sat afternoon. A better chance of MVFR ceilings
will result Sat night-Sun morning, followed by the passage of a band
of showers/storms along a passing cold front on Sun. Very strong and
gusty swly surface winds will also result especially ahead of the
cold front this weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 855 PM Wednesday...
NCFS has requested and coordinated with NWS Forecast Offices another
day of Increased Fire Danger for a large part of NC for Thursday.
A continued very dry and warm, continental air mass will favor
minimum relatively humidity values mostly between 20-30 percent Thu
afternoon. RH will be slightly higher over the nrn Coastal Plain and
far northeast Piedmont, where the proximity of a backdoor front will
favor RH values between 30-40 percent. Surface winds will be mainly
light swly and mitigate an otherwise greater threat of fire danger,
with highest speed between 10-15 mph likely over the Sandhills and
srn and cntl Coastal Plain.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...MWS
FIRE WEATHER...MWS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
933 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
In this update, Severe Thunderstorm Watch #29 has been trimmed
back to Deep East Texas into Louisiana to account for the latest
position of the convective cluster. Large hail and damaging winds
remain as a hazard that these storms are capable of producing,
although the latest environmental trends suggest that storm
intensity has peaked. Plentiful lightning hazards will also remain
with this cluster as strikes have occurred 10 to 20 miles ahead of
the heaviest precipitation, so remain cautious/aware with any
nighttime travel. /16/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
Well mixed upper 70s and lower 80s at 3pm across our Four-State
area. The SW winds have not dried the air much with mid to upper
50 dew points areawide. Skies are mostly sunny everywhere except
deep east TX and Toledo Bend Country of LA with some stratocu
streeting. Just the last hour or two we see some midlevel
gathering of moisture from Tyler to Terrel on a lead push with
more clouds concentrated around the short wave and TCUs over
Abilene now. The HRRR has continued to trend farther south with
development in the coming hours. The SPC alerted us to this with
the midday day one update extending the Slight Risk down over
more of our TX counties. And accordingly, we have a mention of
severe with the current MCD extending into our TX counties and the
expectation to move eastward this evening into S AR.
The convective development will be quick as heating peaks with
the same severe expectations of mostly large hail as the dominant
threat with a quarter inch of rain for some. The upper level
feature will see a surface reflection a low forming late this
afternoon over our western most fringe of counties. Moisture will
be most useful here with a notable drop in coverage over our I-30
from the past several runs with this system. Skies will become
fair in the wake overnight with lows back in the 50s just about
areawide by daybreak. We will be keeping the S/SW winds into the
long term, so highs too will be back in the low to mid 80s for
Thursday afternoon. Overnight under fair skies to partly cloudy
skies, our lows will range again in the mid to upper 50s. The moon
will be full this second short term night at 1:55 am with a
totally eclipsed "Worm" blood moon, appearing reddish for those
interested as the sun`s light picks up on dust in the earth`s
atmosphere. This full moon is a big cue for the Spring fish spawn
as we put on bow on whats left of Winter. /24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
Friday afternoon will see more sunshine, but morning low clouds
that may hone off a couple of degrees for the high temps which
will be nice as will the start of the weekend. We will have more
low clouds and eventually some rain clouds ahead of our next week
cool front. The core upper low in the pattern will push off the
front range and explode out over the plains, occluding Friday
night. This will end up giving a minor push on Friday with limited
moisture and then again Saturday`s daytime heating will develop
more thunderstorms, mainly east of I-49 during the afternoon. The
SPC has continued their day 3 with a Slight Risk for S AR and NE
and central LA. So, good news for more of us as the event energy
is split between two days of heating so to speak. The rest of the
weekend looks very nice with NW winds and a 1022mb surface high
drifting overhead into the next week. We will see winds back to SW
for Monday with more warm temps to start the week and another
chance to get wet overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. /24/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
For the 13/00Z TAFs, incoming thunderstorms from the west will
begin to impact KTYR and KLFK within an hour or so. From there,
storms will track quickly east, impacting KSHV and KMLU through
the evening. Impacts to KTXK and KELD are less certain, but not
being ruled out at this time. These impacts are reflected in
TEMPO groups. Storms will bring large hail, torrential rainfall
and damaging wind gusts. Locally higher gusts than depicted in
groups may be possible. Storms will come to an end through the
evening, with VFR conditions to follow, then lower VFR CIGs
becoming MVFR towards daybreak, rebounding quickly into the late
morning and afternoon tomorrow. Prevailing southerly winds will
become westerly behind the frontal passage before becoming
southerly again tomorrow, at sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts with
gusts of up to 20 kts possible.
/26/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 0931 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
Spotter activation will remain necessary tonight across portions
of Deep East Texas and Northwest Louisiana.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 60 85 59 84 / 30 0 0 20
MLU 62 83 56 81 / 30 0 0 20
DEQ 51 82 53 79 / 30 0 0 20
TXK 57 83 59 83 / 30 0 0 20
ELD 57 82 55 81 / 30 0 0 20
TYR 56 84 59 81 / 20 0 0 10
GGG 56 85 59 84 / 30 0 0 10
LFK 58 86 58 84 / 40 0 0 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...26
previous forecast discussion remains on track. A potent upper
level low will eject out of the Four Corners region and emerge
into the southern/central Plains on Friday. Attendant surface low
will deepen to ~976 mb over eastern Colorado/western Kansas.
Strong westerly winds at the mid levels (50-60 knots at 850 mb)
will translate to 30-40 mph winds at the surface. There is also a
high probability (greater than 70%) of winds gusts exceeding 50
mph across the Big Country and Concho Valley. These winds combined
with very dry conditions will lead to critical fire weather
conditions (see the fire weather discussion for further details).
Upper level trough axis moves across the area on Saturday. Winds
will not be nearly as strong as what is expected on Friday but
will still be breezy out of the west-northwest in the afternoon.
Afternoon highs will be in the 60s as a slightly cooler airmass
settles into the region. Sunday will be quite pleasant with highs
in the 70s and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Warmer
and breezy conditions are expected for the beginning of next week
as southerly flow resumes. Rain chances very remain low.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
VFR conditions continue across West Central Texas terminals
through Thursday afternoon. Some blowing dust will drop visibility
some through mid evening before it settles out as the wind speed
decreases. Wind speeds will decrease rapidly after sunset at most
locations, with some gusty winds near 20 knots returning by
Thursday afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
Critical to near critical fire weather conditions will continue
through this evening to around 7 PM, so will leave the Red Flag
Warning that has been issued in effect for the rest of this
afternoon. Winds will quickly diminish to 10 MPH or less this
evening, and remain less than 20 knots through Thursday. We may
need an RFD for Thursday, but critical fire weather conditions are
not expected.
A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Friday for the entire
area for strong west winds and RH`s of 10% to 20%. A strong upper
level low will move from northeastern New Mexico into eastern
Kansas by Friday afternoon. West to southwest winds of 40 to 50
knots are expected at 850mb, 60 to 75 knots at 700mb, and 75 to
100+ knots at 500mb. At the surface, a deep surface low of less
than 980mb will develop over western Kansas and move eastward
throughout the day. This will create a tightened north to south
surface pressure gradient to develop in our area, and increased
westerly surface winds. With wind directions aligned well from the
surface through the mid/upper levels, west winds of at least 30
to 40 MPH, with gusts up to around 60 MPH, and widespread blowing
dust will develop by late Friday morning, especially north of
Interstate 10. Although temperatures will be cooler, RH`s will
still be able to fall well below 20%, as much drier air will move
in with the west winds. A High Wind Warning may also be needed for
parts of the area, mainly north of Interstate 10.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Saturday,
mainly south of a Sterling City to Brownwood line. Northwest winds
of 20 to 30 MPH, with gusts to 40+ MPH will develop in the wake of
Friday`s Pacific cold front on Saturday. Although temperatures
will likely only warm into the 60s, dewpoint values will be in the
teens, allowing RH values to drop into the 15% to 20%. These
winds, and low RH`s will combine with several days of drying which
will also aid in the potential for hazardous fire weather
conditions.
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to
persist through next Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 51 84 59 72 / 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 50 85 57 72 / 0 0 0 0
Junction 48 88 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
Brownwood 48 86 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
Sweetwater 51 82 55 69 / 0 0 0 0
Ozona 50 83 57 73 / 0 0 0 0
Brady 53 86 62 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-
Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-
Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-
Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-
Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.
High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-
Nolan-Runnels-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-
Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-
Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom
Green.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...07