Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/10/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
...Updated Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm Monday with afternoon temperatures near 80.
- Fire weather concerns Monday and Thursday that should be monitored
for potential future fire weather headlines.
- Ensembles/models show another wind event Friday with the next
opportunity for precipitation.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
Both current surface and RAP mesoanalysis has ridging moving over
the CWA with a surface high pressure regime overhead. Current
conditions are clear skies and light (5-15 mph) winds as a result.
Winds are currently out of the northwest, but are forecast to shift
to being out of the southwest during the evening. The warming trend
continues to be on track with a much warmer than normal Monday
expected. Ensembles have nearly all of the CWA at a >60% to see
highs reach or pass 80 degrees with downslope and some WAA from the
southwest. With the warm, dry air on Monday, RH values out west
reach below 10% via ensemble means. The hang-up on a fire weather
headline is the winds. Even after factoring in that guidance
underestimates winds across SW Kansas, it will still be a struggle
to see gusts at or above 25 mph. Even though criteria is not
expected to be reached, fire weather precautions should still be
taken especially with the very low RH values. If the wind forecast
increases significantly before tomorrow afternoon, a fire weather
headline will be needed.
Tuesday and Wednesday will continue the quiet and dry weather
stretch for SW Kansas. Ensembles have a shortwave trough pattern
over this period, but it is expected to have a minimal tangible
impact outside of a wind shift and cooler temperatures. Preceding a
deep low pressure system that ensembles expect will move into SW
Kansas early Friday, stronger winds Thursday will help culminate in
a significant fire weather risk. Ensembles have RH values at 10-20%
across the far western counties. Unlike Monday, winds should be
stronger with a tighter pressure gradient. While not overwhelming,
gusts up to 30 mph out of the southwest would be adequate for fire
weather criteria. A headline will be needed if Friday`s system
develops and moves as expected.
Lastly to round out the forecast period is the system expected for
Friday. Plenty of details this far out continue to be fuzzy
especially regarding precipitation. Over the past few long-ranged
ensemble runs, some trends have emerged with the backside
precipitation expected. Firstly, the area for potential
precipitation has expanded to include the far western counties with
the ECMWF and ensembles in lock step with each other. The GFS is not
far behind placing the precipitation slightly farther north.
Another notable trend is that what initially looked like could have
been a mixed precipitation event with an overnight transition has
pulled back and now is captured as nearly entirely rain. These
trends are worth monitoring as the week progresses.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period
with VFR/SKC and light winds. After 15z Mon, southwest winds
will increase modestly at all airports, gusting 25-28 kts.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
559 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will continue to run well above average through the
upcoming week. Several record highs are possible on Monday.
- The warm temperatures along with melting snow will elevate
flows on area rivers and streams and lead to an increased risk
for ice jams and minor flooding. The potential for widespread
rain late this week will add to the risk.
- A strong system arriving later in the week will bring our next
chances for widespread rainfall and a risk of thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
Short Term...Tonight through Monday Night
The latest RAP analysis and satellite radar imagery show low
pressure moving east across northern Ontario early this afternoon.
A relatively tight pressure gradient between this low and high
pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley is leading to gusty winds
across northern Wisconsin. Gusts from 25 to 30 mph have been
observed early this afternoon as temps approach or surpass 50
degrees at most locations. With the northern jet positioned north
of the Great Lakes, focus in this part of the forecast generally
revolves around temps and gusty winds.
Temperatures: After a mild afternoon, temperatures are expected to
fall into the middle 20s to lower 30s tonight. Temperatures this
cold are below the afternoon cross-over temps, which will lead to
favorable conditions for fog. Guidance is pointing to lower
visibilities over parts of north-central to far northeast WI late
tonight, where snow melt will aid in augmenting low level
moisture. Patchy fog will be possible, so will continue to
highlight in the HWO.
Unseasonably warm temperatures remain forecast for Monday.
Downsloped air off the Rockies will surge into the state via
breezy southwest winds. 925mb temperatures are forecast to rise
into the 10C to 13C range which would put highs in the middle to
upper 60s. Probabilities of 925 temps greater than 12C are in
excess of 80% over central and east-central WI (highs near 66
degrees). With gusty winds in the boundary layer and mixing in
excess of 900mb, think high temps on the high end of NBM guidance
is warranted so raised them a couple degrees. Several high temp
records therefore remain possible on Monday afternoon.
A cold front will then moved through the region on Monday night,
which will result in gusty winds and much colder temps arriving
after midnight.
Gusty winds: Winds gusting from 25 to 35 mph will diminish at
sunset. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Lake Michigan
this afternoon. Then gusty southwest winds from 20 to 30 mph are
likely on Monday afternoon. Relative humidities are forecast to
fall to around 30% in the afternoon over central WI, but fine
fuels are still moist so concerns about fire weather are minimal
for the time being.
Long Term...Tuesday Through Sunday
Split flow will continue to be the predominate pattern across North
America during the upcoming week. While the northern stream will
generally be north of the region, a potent southern stream cyclone
will provide the greatest impacts over the next week.
Shortwave energy moving across the Lake Superior region will push a
cold front across the region late on Monday night or Tuesday
morning. A few light snow showers will be possible over far
northern WI closer to the strongest dynamics. Other than this small
chance of precip, the front is forecast to move through dry.
However, the front will bring gusty northwest winds as strong cold
advection steepen low level lapse rates. Gusts from 30 or possibly
35 mph will be possible right behind the front for a short period.
Temperatures cool down closer to normal on Tuesday which will likely
be the coldest day of the next week. After high pressure exits to
the east by Wednesday, warm advection returns as the upper flow
reorganizes. As a result, temperatures will start a warming trend
which will continue through the end of the work week.
The warmest day will occur on Friday when strong south flow will be
present. 925mb temps are forecast to warm into the lower or middle
teens by 7 pm Friday. Probabilities of 925mb temps greater than 13C
at this time range from 50-70% over central to east-central WI. If
mixing can occur to this height, temperatures ranging from the upper
60s to middle 70s will be possible. However, placement of the warm
front will be very important as east flow will occur north of the
front with onshore flow off a 36 degree Lake Michigan. Therefore
will remain conservative with temps over eastern WI. It would seem
that central WI will have the greatest potential of reaching 70
degrees.
Dynamics with this system are very impressive. Given the run-to-run
consistency, confidence is higher than normal for this time range of
the forecast that thunderstorms will be possible with this system.
CIPS Analogs and CSU Machine Learning forecasts depict a severe
threat most likely remaining south of the region. But given the
wind fields aloft, will need to monitor potential for strong winds
in any storms in subsequent forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 559 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
VFR conditions and some high clouds streaming in at times are
expected at the TAF sites through the period. Gusty westerly
surface winds will subside around or shortly after 00Z this
evening, with light winds overnight. Some gusty winds aloft will
bring a period of LLWS this evening as the atmosphere decouples
and winds just off the surface gust to 40 knots, then subside
once upper level winds subside.
South-southwest surface winds will become gusty again to 20 to 25
knots on Monday as the boundary layer mixes, with another period
of LLWS expected as winds just above the surface gusty to 35 to 40
knots Monday afternoon.
Lastly, patchy ground fog may develop over far northeast WI late
tonight for a short time, but only reduced visibilities at RHI to
MVFR.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....MPC
AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
622 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Spring-like warmth is expected through most of this week
(with a few exceptions for areas near the lakefront and on
Tuesday/Tuesday night behind a lake-enhanced cold front).
- A period of windy and stormy weather is expected late Friday
into Saturday. There is a chance that storms could be strong
to severe during this time frame.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
While today was an unseasonably mild day, tomorrow looks to be
even milder as abundant sunshine has another day to further warm
up the dry air mass that is in place over the region. The HRRR
and RAP had a pretty good handle on today`s temperatures, which
overperformed most other guidance by a few degrees, so have
leaned on those models again for tomorrow`s highs, which range
from the mid 60s to low 70s in our forecast grids. Tomorrow`s
daily high temperature records for Chicago and Rockford (both 70
degrees set in 1955) could be threatened if temperatures
tomorrow end up overperforming guidance a little more, but for
now, our forecast grids explicitly have highs falling just one
to two degrees shy of the 70 degree record for both cities.
Southwesterly winds will turn breezier tomorrow afternoon as a
low pressure system tracks along the Minnesota/Ontario border
and Lake Superior, yielding a tighter surface pressure gradient
across the Midwest. This system`s trailing cold front will drop
southeastward across the Midwest late tomorrow into Tuesday,
likely reaching our forecast area Tuesday morning not
accompanied by any precipitation. With Tuesday morning`s lows
likely only falling into the 40s and still a good bit of
sunshine expected to be observed, a good chunk of our forecast
area should still see high temperatures climb into the 50s and
even low 60s (most likely in our southern counties). However,
lake enhancement to the cold air advection behind the front will
cause much colder air to charge inland from Lake Michigan with
temperatures quickly falling into the 30s during the late
morning and afternoon (quite possibly quicker/earlier than
presently depicted in our forecast grids).
After a seasonably cool Tuesday night, temperatures will start
to moderate again over the latter half of the week as the
surface pressure configuration/evolution generally favors winds
retaining a southerly component, promoting an extended period of
warm air advection. Above to well above normal temperatures are
thus expected Wednesday through at least Friday, when the
persistent warm air advection looks to culminate in widespread
70+ degree readings being observed during the daytime. Though
again, the influence of the still-cold Lake Michigan may still
be felt in locations closer to the lakeshore. This particularly
looks to be the case for the Illinois portion of the lakeshore
on Wednesday and again on Thursday, when onshore flow or the
development of a lake breeze will keep locations closer to the
lake several degrees cooler than locations farther inland.
There is also still some ensemble support for rain occurring
across mainly southeastern portions of our forecast area on
Thursday/Thursday night as a weakening shortwave trough passes
by to our south. The latest NBM came in with PoPs below 15%,
which is probably a bit too low based on the latest ensemble
runs, but with the strongest forcing likely to remain to our
south, opted to leave these be for now.
Aside from the unseasonable warmth, the other main forecast
item of note is the windy and likely stormy weather that is
expected to close out the week. For several consecutive days
now, ensemble and deterministic guidance has remained in
remarkable agreement on a deep, potent upper-level trough
ejecting into the Great Plains on Friday and quickly acquiring a
negative tilt as it pivots into the Midwest. There is likewise
strong ensemble agreement on the general idea of this trough
ejection spurring the development of a rapidly deepening surface
low that would track from the central High Plains into the
Upper Midwest Friday into Saturday. An anomalously deep surface
low like this developing east of the Rockies this time of year
almost always spells trouble in the form of severe weather for
somebody, and this case looks to be no different with both CSU
and NSSL experimental machine learning probabilities putting a
broad swath of the central and eastern CONUS under the gun for
potential severe weather Friday into Saturday. With the surface
low likely tracking to our northwest and with an anomalously
warm and moist air mass in place over the region, northern
Illinois and northwest Indiana would be among the areas at risk
for this potential severe weather, mainly late Friday, but also
potentially on Saturday as well depending on how quickly the
system evolves.
However, with this system still being 5-6 days out, there are
still unsurprisingly a lot of finer scale uncertainties that
need to be resolved over the coming days, particularly with
respect to timing and how far north the better quality Gulf
moisture will be able to protrude. The latest multi-model/multi-
ensemble consensus favors convection developing well to our
west/southwest and not arriving here until after sunset, when
any surface-based instability would likely begin to trend
downward, which could be one limiting factor the potential for
severe weather occurring in our area. The better quality
moisture and associated greater surface-based instability could
also get pinched off to our south, which would also tend to limit
the overall threat for severe weather here locally. That being
said, the overall forcing for ascent looks strong, and it looks
like there will be no shortage of low-level and deep-layer
shear given the strong kinematic fields in the vicinity of the
low, so it won`t take much instability for us to potentially
have a problem on our hands. For now, have just boosted our
thunder probabilities from the NBM initialization for late
Friday/early Saturday, but we`ll need to continue to closely
monitor trends in forecast guidance over the coming days to
better gauge the extent to which severe weather may end up being
a possibility here locally.
Otherwise, with the deep surface low compacting pressure
gradients across the region, Friday and Saturday both look like
they could be pretty windy days. If some of the deeper/more
aggressive model solutions verify, then we may eventually need
to hoist a wind headline for at least one of these days, but
that`s something that is still several days down the road.
Ogorek
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
Only aviation forecast concerns for the 00Z TAFs are somewhat
breezy southwest winds again Monday afternoon and Monday night,
with LLWS likely later Monday evening as a strong low level jet
develops. Otherwise, dry VFR conditions are expected through
the period.
Early evening surface map shows weak low pressure passing north
of Lake Superior, and an enhanced surface pressure gradient
across WI/LM/lower MI. Northern IL/IN terminals are along the
southern fringe of the stronger wind field, and expect a quick
drop off in winds with sunset. Light mainly southwest winds are
expected to persist through Monday morning, though there could
be a period of light/somewhat variable winds toward/around
sunrise. Southwest winds will become breezy again Monday
afternoon, though a bit lighter than the past few days.
This will change Monday evening however, as a stronger area of
low pressure moves into the northern Great Lakes region and
induces a strong 50-60 knot low level jet. Winds should decouple
and lose gusts with sunset then become breezy again from the
southwest by mid-evening or so, though with a low-level
inversion limiting surface winds/gusts somehwat. Above about
1500 feet AGL, those 50-60 kt winds will produce a period of
LLWS which persists into the predawn hours of Tuesday morning.
Ratzer
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Winthrop
Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1044 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire danger is expected across central and northeast
Missouri as well as west-central Illinois on Monday afternoon.
- A strong storm system will bring windy conditions with a high
chance (70-90%) of showers and thunderstorms between Friday
afternoon and Friday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
Clear conditions with mostly light winds are forecast again tonight
as a surface ridge axis gradually slides southward more into the mid
south and Ohio Valley. Some weak west/southwest return flow, mainly
in parts of central and northeast Missouri as well as west-central
Illinois, should help keep temperatures a bit more on the milder
side. Lows are forecast to be mostly in the mid to upper 30s across
the area. The one exception is in favored valleys across parts of
southeast Missouri where winds will be light/variable. This should
allow for the boundary layer to really decouple and at least
approach dewpoints (mid to upper 20s). Lows in these locations in
the low 30s are forecast, and given those dewpoints mentioned
immediately above, would not be surprised to see the coldest
locations bottoming out in the upper 20s.
The warmup will accelerate on Monday as strong low-level warm air
advection moves in from the west. The 850-hPa thermal ridge
approaches the Missouri-Iowa border by early evening, with
increasing southwesterly surface winds ahead of an approaching cold
front. Plentiful sunshine will also contribute to the warmup, with
most locations cresting the 70 degree mark. One negating factor
holding me back from going more aggressive with temperatures is the
lack of mixing. Model soundings show mixing to around 875 hPa, not
abnormally deep by any means for almost mid March. Even the
notoriously (too) well-mixed 12Z HRRR has the top of the boundary
layer at about 825 to 875 hPa.
Milder trends will continue Monday night due to increasing
southwesterly surface winds. Lows in the 40s are forecast, or about
15 degrees above normal for date.
Gosselin
&&
.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
(Tuesday - Thursday Night)
A cold front will move through much of the bi-state area on Tuesday
before stalling out Tuesday night. Confidence in the timing of this
frontal passage has increased somewhat compared to 24 hours ago,
with the likely location of the boundary bisecting the CWA from
southwest to northeast around 1800 UTC. As a result, there will be a
moderately strong temperature gradient from northwest to southeast
across the area, with highs in the low 60s in parts of northeast
Missouri to mid 70s in southeast Missouri. Surface winds veering
ahead of the front more to the west/southwest also should help
warm temperatures in east central and southeast Missouri as air
downslopes off of the Ozark Plateau.
Little change is expected in terms of temperatures through Thursday.
The air mass behind Tuesday`s front is Pacific in nature, and as
alluded to above, the front should stall out in southeast
Missouri/southwest Illinois Tuesday night. The boundary may push
back slightly northward as a warm front on Wednesday before washing
out entirely. Therefore, look for highs each day to be mostly in the
70s, with lows mostly in the 50s.
Predominantly dry weather is forecast through mid week, with the
only chance of rain showers confined to Wednesday night. Trends
that have been observed over the past 24-48 hours have largely
continued, with the track of the midlevel disturbance more toward
the mid south. Chances of rain showers are now mostly in the
15-25%, and mostly confined to portions of southeast Missouri and
southwest Illinois. If the shortwave keeps shifting south, PoPs
may need to be removed altogether.
(Friday - Next Sunday)
A strong mid/upper level trough is expected to eject out of the
desert southwest early Friday, inducing rapid leeside cyclogenesis
across the western Plains. WPC clusters of the 500-hPa height
pattern are in pretty good agreement with the track, though there
are some notable differences in timing and strength of the overall
storm system. Regardless, it appears increasingly likely (70-90%)
for a round of showers and thunderstorms to impact the area between
Friday afternoon and Friday night.
The very strong dynamics with this system look like a given, with
extremely diffluent flow aloft to the east/southeast of the closed
mid/upper level low moving into the Upper Midwest. Convection likely
will initiate sometime Friday afternoon along a prefrontal trough.
Given the strong dynamics/synoptic scale forcing in play, any storms
that do form likely will quickly evolve into a line. The amount of
instability is still a source of uncertainty, with concerns on when
the storm occludes still an open question. A faster occlusion to our
west, as alluded to yesterday, could "pinch off" the richer moisture
(dewpoints near 60F) to the south. However, it may not take much in
the way of instability given the strong dynamics in play. Joint
probabilities from the LREF early Friday evening for at least 500
J/kg of CAPE and 50+ knots of deep-layer shear range from 40-60%.
These probabilities have also been climbing steadily over the past
couple of days now. This potential event is still 5 days away, but
trends are pointing toward at least the chance of organized strong-
severe convection within the CWA.
Gosselin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
A clear sky continues across the region with VFR conditions
continuing through Monday. Winds are light overnight, but increase
a bit on Monday, especially farther to the northwest. Winds
diminish a bit Monday evening, but not fully. In fact, increasing
winds aloft to the north may lead to low level wind shear at
Quincy by Tuesday morning.
An ongoing issue with the normal dissemination of observations
from CPS continues. While conditions are expected to remain VFR,
the AMD NOT SKED remark has been maintained until normal
observations return.
Kimble
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
- A warming trend continues through Tuesday. Elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions are expected both Monday and
Tuesday due to warm temperatures and dry conditions.
- Two storm systems will swing in this week. The first system will
occur Wednesday bringing breezy winds and critical to near
critical fire weather conditions. A stronger system on Friday
brings strong winds and higher fire weather concerns.
- Cooler temperatures are expected behind Friday`s cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
Latest upper-level water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows the
trough that swung through the region yesterday across northeast
Texas moving into the Lower Mississippi Valley. An upper-level ridge
is positioned over the Desert Southwest moving eastward, which is
going to provide warmer temperatures and continued dry weather
conditions throughout the short-term forecast period. Tonight`s low
temperatures are expected to be similar compared to the lows this
morning being in the lower 30s to lower 40s due to sufficient
radiational cooling. Very light southwesterly winds are also
anticipated tonight into tomorrow morning as a ridge of surface high
pressure places itself near the region.
Temperatures climb back into the 70s tomorrow with the exception for
some areas in the Guadalupe Mountains (mid 60s) and along the Rio
Grande (mid 80s). Southwesterly winds begin to increase by the early
afternoon hours, thanks to daytime mixing. A dry air mass coinciding
with increased winds will promote the potential for elevated fire
weather conditions over portions of the higher terrain, the Permian
Basin, and southeastern New Mexico. The upper-level ridge is
expected to be over the region by tomorrow night, supplying
warmer low temperatures in the mid 30s to upper 40s.
Lamberson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
A warmer than typical day for this time of year is in store Tuesday.
High temperatures are forecasted to generally be in the upper 70s to
mid 80s regionwide as the upper-level ridge continues to gradually
move eastward. Elevated fire weather conditions resume for
similar areas from Monday, with near critical concerns across the
Guadalupe Mountains. These concerns are expected to worsen
areawide as the week progresses.
The weather pattern gets more interesting heading into Tuesday night
and Wednesday lasting through much of the long-term period. An upper-
level trough will approach the region from the Desert Southwest
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will push a Pacific front
through the region on Wednesday, providing breezy to strong westerly
winds and subtle cooler temperatures. High temperatures are
forecasted to be in the 70s across southeastern New Mexico, the
Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos, while areas along the Presidio and
Rio Grande valleys being in the low to mid 80s. Ensemble guidance
has been in agreement with sustained winds reaching High Wind
Warning criteria, however, there is quite a bit of spread and
uncertainty on the magnitude of these winds. Widespread near
critical fire weather concerns will be another hazard to consider.
The trough is expected to move out of the region rather quickly,
providing another ridge to build in briefly by Wednesday night. The
ridge will warm temperatures back up in the upper 70s to 80s and
keep winds fairly light on Thursday, besides the higher terrain
areas.
These warmer temperatures and fairly light winds cease heading into
Friday as a stronger Pacific front and upper-level trough makes
their way into the forecast area again. Deterministic and ensemble
guidance is hinting at a wind event across the region. Along with
that, the European Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails outputs
a 93rd and 96th percentile for both the sustained winds and wind
gusts during this timeframe. These percentiles signal a very unusual
to significant wind event forecasted to occur based on model
climatology. Fire weather concerns increase to critical due to the
prolonged dry conditions and strong winds forecasted for the entire
region. Temperatures are anticipated to drop slightly below normal
on Friday upon the frontal passage. Saturday looks to be slightly
warmer, though there is uncertainty due to the timing of when the
trough moves out of the area. Based on this uncertainty, the
stronger winds could prevail heading into Saturday morning as well,
though winds will not be as strong given the position of the trough
axis. No precipitation is expected for most of the region with
either of the aforementioned systems. There are low (10-20%) chances
of precipitation over the far western forecast zones Thursday night
into Friday morning. If any precipitation occurs, it will be light
accumulations (trace to 0.01").
Lamberson
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
VFR conditions and light winds will continue the next 24 hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 33 76 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 33 74 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 40 76 43 84 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 38 77 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 37 65 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 34 73 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 30 68 37 76 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 35 73 42 80 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 37 72 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 33 75 39 82 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
611 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Record heat Monday, with anomalies ~30 degrees above normal.
Elevated fire weather conditions with dry air and gusty winds.
- Dry conditions expected through midweek with highs in the 60s
and 70s by late week.
- A powerful storm system will impact the region Friday and
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
Temperatures are on the climb again with only thin, cirrus
clouds to filter the sun. The extent of the snow footprint on
satellite continues to shrink this afternoon, with only the
areas who received 7"+ still holding onto 1-3". If our first
post-7pm sunset is not enough to knock out the remaining
snowpack this evening, overnight lows generally above freezing
should be enough to be the final nail in the coffin. And
whatever is left by tomorrow morning will receive a metaphorical
flamethrower.
Another round of record highs looks increasingly certain
tomorrow. Latest 925 hPa temperatures are forecast to peak
+15C to +17C across Minnesota. RAP and HRRR soundings suggest we
should be able to mix up to that level, if not even slightly
higher, yielding highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Not only
would this result in anomalies of 25F to 30F above normal, but
it would also be almost 5F above the daily records (see climate
section). Also of note, there is a concern for elevated fire
weather conditions due to the increased mixing (stronger winds
and lower dewpoints). Favorably, these two components should be
largely offset with the strong CAA winds arriving late afternoon
through early tomorrow morning. This will allow temperatures to
decrease enough to drive RH values well above critical
threshold. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of
west-central MN tomorrow afternoon, when the increasing wind
overlaps the low RH values. An SPS for elevated fire weather
conditions also extends into central and southwest MN where
confidence is higher that a Warning will not be needed.
Temperatures will plummet an impressive 40-50F behind the strong
frontal passage, bottoming out in the upper teens and low 20s
Tuesday morning. The Canadian high slides east during the day
Tuesday, allowing temperatures to gradually rebound under weak
southeasterly flow through mid-week.
By Thursday, an upper level trough is progged to bring
widespread precipitation across the West Coast. Thursday night
into Friday, associated lee cyclogenesis results in a powerful
storm system over the Plains with increased northerly flow of
moisture and anomalously warm temperatures across the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Mean PWATs across ensemble guidance range
from ~0.7" to 0.9" (roughly the 95th percentile compared to
climatology for mid March). There continues to be strong
agreement in a deepening surface low around 975-980 hPa that
tracks into SW MN by Friday evening. The combination of CAPE
values around 750-1000 J/kg and steep mid-level lapse rates of
7-8.5 C/km, certainly favors the development of some
thunderstorms with potential for lower-end severe hazards. As
surface flow wraps around the low, parameters for convective
development will be slightly favored across SE MN and western
WI. This is highlighted well by the CSU-MLP day 6 severe
probability forecast. By Saturday morning, the mean track takes
the low right over the Twin Cities metro. This could really cut
down on QPF values on Saturday as drier air wraps around in on
the south side of the low. As the low occludes over Lake
Superior, scattered wrap-around rain/snow showers are possible
late Saturday into Sunday. Much cooler air will funnel in behind
this system, with highs hovering right around freezing on
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
Light west winds this evening becoming southwest overnight.
Winds will shift back to the west than near the end of the
period northwest. As this shift occurs speeds will increase with
gusts up to around 30 knots. VFR high clouds expected for the
period.
KMSP...No additional concerns.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025
Record and Forecast Highs for Monday...
Monday 3/10:
| Forecast | Record | Year of Record
----------------------------------------
MSP | 68 | 66 | 2015, 2012
STC | 71 | 61 | 2015
EAU | 68 | 64 | 2012
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-
Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...NDC
CLIMATE...WFO MPX
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
524 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions Monday
- Gusty/strong northwest winds Monday
- Mild and dry through Thursday
- Strong storm possible for the end of the week, but impacts
unsurprisingly continue to oscillate
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025
19z surface analysis had low over southern AB with lee trough
into WY. Water vapour matinee had upper ridge poking into the
northern Plains with cirrus spilling over it into the CWA. Day
snow/fog RGB depicted snowcover over a good chunk of northeastern
WY and then along the SD/NE border, which is shrinking on the
edges courtesy of temperatures in 60s outside of the snowcover.
40s in snowcover. Short term attention focused on upper trough
crashing into BC per water vapour.
Tonight/Monday, shortwave trough zips across southern Canada
breaking down upper ridge and pushing surface low southeast.
Trailing cold front develops, which will zip through the CWA
Monday afternoon. Westerly flow strengthens ahead of the front,
promoting continued dry/mild conditions. Behind the front, 850mb
winds ~40kts and 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises will bring gusty
northwest winds Monday afternoon. Best forecast pressure rises
northeast of the CWA. Bufkit forecast soundings suggest a high end
wind advisory most spots, although northwest SD may briefly gust
around 50kts. HRRR/NBM probabilities of 50kt gusts is less than
50%, so will continue the High Wind Watch. Temperatures will be
near guidance.
Tuesday through Thursday, mild/dry weather continues per
west/southwest flow aloft. Vigorous upper trough crashes into the
Rockies Thursday. Most guidance spins up vigorous upper/surface
low Friday over the central Plains, moving into the upper
Midwest. Important differences remain in the track of the storm
(especially Friday) as well as strength of the upper low. Major
differences in impacts as a result over the CWA. We are still in
the watching/waiting mode, meticulously pouring over each set of
ensemble guidance. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued At 522 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025
VFR conditions will prevail across the terminal locations through
the valid fcst period. Winds could increase at the GCC terminal
aft 03z Monday and at the RAP terminal aft 18z Monday. Wind gusts
could range from 25-35 kts at times.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 159 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025
Dry conditions and above average temperatures are expected
through Thursday. Warm and dry weather Monday will drop relative
humidities to as low as 13-20 percent. Gusty westerly winds Monday
are expected ahead of a dry cold front, which moves through
Monday afternoon shifting winds to the northwest at 25-35 mph with
gusts around 55 mph. The strongest winds are expected across
northwest South Dakota. A Red Flag Warning has been issued to
account. Dry weather and light to moderate winds will persist
through midweek, continuing elevated fire weather conditions.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Monday for SDZ323>325-
327>332.
High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
SDZ001-002-012>014-078.
WY...&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...Hintz
FIRE WEATHER...Helgeson
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
711 PM PDT Sun Mar 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather expected through Monday. A weak weather
system will bring spotty shower chances to areas south of
Interstate 40 on Tuesday. A stronger system will bring strong
gusty winds to the area Wednesday and Thursday along with
widespread rain and heavy mountain snow, along with a drop in
temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...A quiet evening is underway, with light winds and clear
skies across the region. Latest water vapor imagery and 500 hPa
RUC analysis indicates a high-amplitude ridge slowly translating
eastward, its axis extending from roughly the Gulf of California
north- northeastward across the Desert Southwest and Four Corners
Region. This ridge is responsible for the quiescent weekend we`ve
had, and will continue its gradual eastward progression ahead of
the next trough to impact the region which is currently still
churning off of the California coast. Midlevel moisture ahead of
this system is already making its way inland, routed across
northern California and the Pacific Northwest into the northern
Rockies around the aforementioned ridge. However, impacts from
this system including increased cloud cover and low-order PoPs
across southern areas are not expected until later on Monday into
Tuesday, thus, the quiet pattern will continue until then. The
forecast tonight for clear skies, light winds, and lows in the 30s
and 40s for most remains on track, with no updates warranted this
evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...435 PM PDT Sun Mar 9 2025...
.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.
Calm weather with seasonable temperatures will continue through
Monday as a ridge builds across the area before shifting eastward
ahead of an approaching Pacific low pressure system. This first
incoming low is currently several hundred miles off the
California coastline and will continue to creep eastward in the
coming 48 hours, tracking mainly south of our area. Despite the
favorable oceanic trajectory to bring moisture into the deserts,
most of the moisture will be focused into the Sonoran Desert and
southern Arizona, with only very spotty and light showers brushing
our southern zones, mainly south of I-40. A modest decrease in
temperatures is expected areawide as the wave moves through
Tuesday along with some breezier conditions and increase cloud
cover, but otherwise little weather of interest for most of our
region.
A stronger storm system will follow on its heels Wednesday into
Thursday, featuring a favorable moisture tap for widespread rain
and mountain snow, widespread gusty winds, and colder
temperatures. Overall, little has changed in the overall
expectations with this storm, and confidence continues to
increase in regards to winter impacts in our higher terrain. In
collaboration with our neighboring Reno and Hanford NWS offices,
issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Sierra where probabilities
remain high for 1-2 feet of snow above 8000 feet Wednesday into
Thursday. Also included the White Mountains of Inyo County where
spillover precipitation could result in 6 to 10 inches of snow
impacting Westgard Pass.
Outside of the Sierra, expecting a atmospheric river type storm
system to move through late Wednesday into Thursday, spreading at
least light precipitation across most of the Mojave Desert.
Precipitation forecasts will be susceptible to the usual limiting
factors including rainshadow influences and a fairly rapid
progression of the moisture plume through the area, but ensemble
means continue to support widespread measurable precipitation,
with means in the Las Vegas Valley of between 0.10-0.30. In the
higher elevations, another round of heavy snow is expected in the
Spring Mountains and Sheep Range, with rather intense snowfall
rates possible as the front moves through Thursday morning when
snowfall rates may exceed 1-2 inches per hour above 7000 feet.
Went ahead and issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Spring
Mountains and Sheep Range as well.
Further north, winter impacts are also expected in the Southern
Great Basin, especially elevations above 5000 feet in Lincoln
County and Esmeralda counties which observed heavy snow just last
week. Uncertainties in snowfall amounts and snow levels limit
confidence to issue a winter headline up there at this time, but
trends will continue to be monitored as the event draws closer.
Outside of the precipitation, strong and progressive trough
featuring a strong thermal gradient will naturally include a wind
element, and gusty winds will return to much of the region with
this system. Wind headlines may be needed down the road,
especially for the Western Mojave Desert Thursday.
The midweek storm will exit stage right by Friday with improving
conditions expected over the weekend. However, active weather
pattern looks to continue into mid-March, with additional weather
systems hinted at by ensemble guidance by the following week. The
Climate Prediction Centers official forecast continues to favor
below normal temperatures and wetter than normal conditions
through the 6-10 day period.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Light
winds of less than 8 knots following typical diurnal directional
trends will continue through tomorrow. The only concern is a chance
(40 to 50 percent) of an easterly gust over 10 knots after 18Z
tomorrow, but any that occur should be short-lived. VFR conditions
will prevail through the TAF period with mainly clear skies through
daybreak, then FEW to SCT clouds with bases AOA 15kft AGL afterward.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Conditions at Las Vegas
Valley area TAF sites will be similar to what is described above for
Harry Reid. Elsewhere, Gusty southerly winds in the Owens Valley
will persist through sunset before decreasing. Winds will become
light and variable overnight, but the southerly winds will return
tomorrow, albeit at lower speeds. Elsewhere across the western
Mojave Desert and Colorado River valley, winds will tend to follow
typical diurnal directional trends through tomorrow, with speeds
remaining less than 10 knots. VFR conditions will prevail through
the TAF period at all sites with mainly clear skies through
daybreak, followed by FEW to SCT clouds with bases AOA 15kft AGL
increasing from west to east after that.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Phillipson
DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Planz
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