Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/09/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
504 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming Sunday and Monday with Monday potentially seeing highs
in the 80s.
- A dry stretch for most of the week until the next notable system
approaches around Friday.
- Fire weather concerns Monday and Thursday that should be
monitored for future fire weather headlines.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025
Current RAP mesoanalysis has a deep low pressure system moving into
Texas from New Mexico. Small amounts of remaining precipitation is
dissolving along the KS/OK border with dry weather prevailing once it
has completely eroded. Some areas in the northern zones have already
reached the 50s where most of the CWA is expected to see highs reach
today. Quiet weather will be present for the rest of the day with
light winds (<10 mph) and mostly clear skies.
Into Sunday, as the low pressure system`s influence loosens on SW
Kansas, weak ridging is expected to move in from over the Rockies
via ensembles. This pattern will help keep winds fairly light (<10
mph) and clear skies. It will also lead off a dry stretch that lasts
the majority of the week. The clear skies and subtle downslope will
help push highs Sunday well into the 60s for SW Kansas. Highs will
continue to steeply rise into Monday with stronger downslope with
plenty of WAA with the SW winds. Some fire weather concerns are
present Monday with the rapidly warming dry air bringing forecasted
relative humidities down to 10% across the W/NW portions of the CWA.
Lighter winds (<20 mph) currently have the risk level below
significant as of the current forecast, but stronger winds could
push criteria into a fire weather watch/red flag warning criteria
and should be monitored in updated forecasts.
Through the week, ensembles depict the weak ridging breaking down
and shifting to a zonal flow pattern until later in the week. A
brief interruption of this flow is expected by ensembles on
Tuesday/Wednesday with a low-level shortwave. The impact of the
shortwave will be minimal on SW Kansas outside of a wind shift and
some CAA to push highs down after a much warmer than normal Monday.
Thursday will be another day to watch regarding fire weather risk.
With an approaching system in the late week, winds will increase
with ensembles having winds up to 30 mph with minimum relative
humidities around 15%. Once the associated system is better
resolved, the fire weather risk will be more fleshed out.
Moving into Friday a deep trough is shown by long-ranged ensembles
to move into the CWA. Preliminary runs keep the majority of the
precipitation to the northern zones with the caveat that it is
relatively early to make proclamations regarding the precipitation.
It will be worth watching the temperatures especially into the
overnight for a shift in precipitation type through the duration of
the event. Outside of the fire weather risk potential, this system
is the headlining focus of the forecast for the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 503 PM CST Sat Mar 8 2025
Clouds will gradually decrease from north to south through 06z
Sunday as upper low, located over the Panhandle of Texas, moves
southeast towards Dallas. At the surface an area of high
pressure extending from the Panhandle of Oklahoma into eastern
Kansas will gradually slide south. This will keep the winds
across western Kansas northerly over the next 24 hours at
10 knots or less.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
642 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Warming trend begins Sunday and continues into next week. Highs in
the 60s on Monday, low 70s on Tuesday, and mid 70s on Wednesday.
* Increasing risk for gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain next
weekend as a strong low pressure system is expected to track
through the central US.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
RAP 500 MB analysis and water vapor imagery sow a relatively zonal
flow pattern across the eastern third of the CONUS with a positively
tilted UL trough over the southwest. Relatively dry with a little
moisture working into the Ohio River Valley as of the early
afternoon, however mostly clear skies with a few passing high level
clouds across the area were observed. Temperatures ranged from 46
at Huntingburg, IN to 55 at Bowling Green KY.
NNW flow aloft, and high pressure at the surface, will keep cool air
from the north advecting into the area. While temps the low to mid
30s (which is near to slightly below normal for early March) are
expected, incoming cloud cover spreading across the region from the
incoming trough of low pressure could keep low temps a bit on the
warmer side.
The trough of low pressure over the southwest is expected to stay
south of the forecast area tonight into Sunday as high pressure
remains in control. Morning clouds will become more scattered
through the day as the storm system moves across the southeast.
Highs near 60 on Sunday will be near to slightly above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
==== Sunday Night - Wednesday =====
Dry and quiet weather will be ongoing Sunday night, with slightly
more cloud cover across the south. This will be due to an upper low
crossing the Deep South, though we remain dry as all the forcing and
moisture stays across the Gulf states. Winds overnight will be light
and variable, and combined with mostly clear skycover, should help
radiate temps down into the lower 30s, which would end up being a
few degrees below normals.
For Monday through Wednesday, the upper flow pattern will become
more zonal, with sfc high pressure spread across the region. Expect
plenty of sunshine and comfortable temps for next week. Temperatures
will warm through the week, but more info on that is listed below.
===== Wednesday Night - Weekend =====
An upper low will likely come ashore over Southern California on
Tuesday, which will then cross the southern half of the US by the
mid-week. We`ll get a meager moisture axis up into the lower Ohio
Valley, which could be enough for isolated to scattered light
showers Wednesday night and into Thursday, but certainly not a
soaking rain event. As mentioned in the previous discussion,
guidance continues to suggest weakening of this mid-week wave, and
could end up with very limited areas that actually get measurable
precip.
A second upper trough will come ashore over the Pacific Coast on
Thursday, which will be much more amplified. This system will
continue deepening as it tracks across the central US, potentially
bringing a significant low pressure system across the Plains. Friday
is expected to be dry and very warm, with strengthening WAA pattern
due to deep SW flow.
For Saturday, a large warm conveyor belt LLJ will spread out ahead
of the low, possibly exceeding 65kts in the 850mb layer over the
forecast area. Combined with a very tight pressure gradient due to
how deep the sfc low is expected to be, gusty southwest winds will
be something to watch for next weekend. Moderate to heavy rain and
thunderstorms will be something to also keep eyes on, though some
timing difference between the global solutions will need to be
sorted out in the coming days. The CPC experimental 8-14 day heavy
rain probabilities continue to highlight portions of Tennessee and
Kentucky with a high risk (>60%) for heavy rain. While soundings do
not show much instability at this time, the profiles are well-
saturated, and highly sheared, resulting in curved hodographs. The
NAEFS ESAT does indicate some lower probabilities of extreme wind
probs for Saturday. We are just beyond the scope of the EFI at this
time too, so we`ll get better details in the coming days.
===== Well Above Normal Temperatures Next Week =====
WAA will increase throughout the week, leading to daily temperatures
well above normal. Normal highs for this time of year are around the
mid-50s. We`ll see temps climb into the 70s for Tuesday-Friday,
possibly reaching the upper-70s by Friday.
Normal morning lows for this time of year are in the upper 30s.
We`ll see morning lows in the 40s, possibly upper-40s and low-50s
for the end of the week.
Records currently do not appear to be in jeopardy, but will be
something to keep an eye on for March 14.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
VFR conditions through the valid TAF period, with cirrus ceilings
later tonight into Sunday morning. Winds continue to relax, and will
initialize with a light NW breeze. Will go calm later this evening
as the sfc high settles over Kentucky, with a light westerly breeze
once daytime mixing commences on Sunday.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MCK
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...RAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
945 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys builds east
tonight, and off the Mid Atlantic coast on Sunday. A series of
weak lows will then pass north of the area Sunday into Sunday
night. A much stronger area of low pressure will then pass well
to the south Monday into Monday night. An associated cold front
moves across late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High
pressure generally remains in control through the remainder of
the week. A developing frontal system begins to approach next
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Minor adjustments were made to temperatures, dewpoints, winds
and cloud coverage to better match observed trends. Clear sky
conditions with decreasing temperatures this evening. Forecast
overall remains on track. RH levels will be on a rising trend.
An upper trough across eastern Canada and into the Northeast
will steer a few more shortwaves across the area through the
weekend before lifting out. At the same time, low pressure
weakens over the Canadian Maritimes and weak high pressure
builds east from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys tonight. This
will result in a colder night with gradually diminishing winds
into morning. Under clear skies, lows will range from the mid
20s inland to around freezing across the NYC metro. This is a
bit below normal, but will feel even colder in the WNW flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A series of weak lows will pass to the north across eastern
Canada Sunday into Sunday night, while high pressure passes to
the south. This will cause winds to back around to the SW and
once again become gusty at 25 to 30 mph. A shortwave passing
through along with weak warm advection will allow for an
increase in clouds with the chance of a brief shower and/or
flurry during the late morning. However, with highs getting to
near 50, this will be in the form of sprinkles in the afternoon.
Chances are only 20 percent and with a deep-layered west flow
it will be hard to get much. The HRRR is the most aggressive of
the CAMs, which shows some weak reflectivity returns cellular
in nature. Lapse rates are steep with little if any CAPE.
Whatever does develop will be low-topped (less than 10 kft).
Any rainfall likely not much more than a trace.
For Sunday night, skies clear back out with another weak low
passing to the north with weak high pressure to the south. A
diminishing WSW flow and continued warm advection will result in
a warmer night with lows in the lower to mid 30s.
For Monday, weak high pressure builds over the area with a
deepening southern branch low passing well to the south. High
will get into the 50s and even the lower 60s inland.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key points are a continuance of mainly dry conditions along
with generally above normal temperatures on average for the long
term. Potential changes for next Saturday with a developing
frontal system approaching from the west. Possible
precipitation, mainly in the form of rain showers Thursday and
Thursday night with a higher chance of rain showers next
Saturday.
Jet levels at 250 mb, the local region appears to be in between the
northern and southern jet branches for the entire long term forecast
period from the consensus of numerical weather prediction model
forecasts. Height orientation at 250mb appears mainly zonal until
next Saturday when more SW to NE height orientation appears ahead of
a large trough and a strong meridional jet streak approaching
from the west.
Looking at the mid levels at 500mb, numerical weather model
prediction height forecasts do not present any significant deviation
from zonal flow for much of the long term period. It is not until
next Saturday for any significant deviation from zonal flow, that
being of the SW flow ahead of a large trough.
At the surface, for Monday night into Tuesday, the consensus of
numerical weather model predictions show the local region to be in
between two low pressure areas, one in SE Canada and one moving off
the SE US coast. These lows move farther away Tuesday night through
Wednesday, to the northeast and southeast of the area respectively.
Meanwhile, low in SE Canada with trailing cold front will have this
front move across late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High
pressure then builds into the area from the north for Wednesday and
Wednesday night. High pressure shifts east of the region Thursday
into start of next weekend, getting eventually into Canadian
Maritimes and Northern Atlantic. Possible inverted trough and
easterly low level flow could result in a few showers, mainly
rain showers, Thursday and Thursday night. A complex developing
frontal system begins to approach from the west next Saturday,
which is when there is a relatively higher chance of rain
showers in the forecast. Southerly flow ahead of trough is
forecast to lead to a warmer trend in temperatures Friday into
Saturday of next week.
Surface winds overall present more onshore and southerly flow during
the long term. Airmass overall exhibits above normal temperatures on
average.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds south of the area into Sunday. A surface
trough moves across late Sunday.
VFR thru the TAF period. NW flow is gradually diminishing this
evening with gusts still 20-30 kt through 6Z while backing a
bit to the W. W/SW wind then increases after 14Z Sunday with
gusts back up to 30 kt possible. Winds veer to the WNW late
Sunday behind the trough as speeds diminish late afternoon into
the evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Peak gusts on Sunday may be slightly higher than forecast in the
17-22Z timeframe.
.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: VFR. Decreasing winds after 22-00Z.
Monday: VFR with W/VRB flow.
Tuesday: VFR with S flow.
Wednesday: VFR with N flow.
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible with E flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
WNW winds will gradually diminish tonight with a lull in the
winds before increasing from the WSW late Sunday morning. Have
extended SCA on the ocean due to the break only being a matter
of a few hours. However, the non-oceans waters will come down
late tonight. Another brief SCA is possible for these waters
Sunday afternoon. Confidence is lower than on the ocean waters.
Sub-SCA conditions are then forecast Sunday into Monday with
weak high pressure over the area.
For marine long term, wind gusts are forecast to remain below SCA
thresholds through Thursday night. However, there will be a chance
for higher peak wind gusts reaching into SCA range late Tuesday
through early Wednesday with a cold frontal passage. For Tuesday
night through Thursday night, seas are forecast to be at SCA levels
on the ocean. Otherwise, seas forecast in the long term are below
SCA for Monday night and Tuesday on the ocean and for all time
periods in the long term for non-ocean zones.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusts gradually lowering and RH levels on a rising trend with
conditions becoming less favorable for brush fire spread tonight.
Sunday will feature slightly higher minimum RH (30 to 40 percent)
values with gusty WSW flow. Gusts up to 30 mph are expected by
afternoon. Fine fuel moisture will change little. However, land
partners at this time would prefer us holding off on the
issuance of a Special Weather Statement due to the higher RH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...DW/MW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JM/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW