Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/08/25
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
456 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
- A dynamic weather system will impact the Panhandles starting
tonight and persisting through much of Saturday. This will
result in accumulating snow for most, if not all, of the
Panhandles.
A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the
northwestern combined Panhandles from 6 PM this evening to 9 PM
Saturday.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the rest of
the combined Panhandles from 9 PM this evening through 12 AM
Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 248 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
As of 1 PM, a cold front has already made its way through the
Oklahoma Panhandle and into the northern Texas Panhandle, which is
around 4 hours ahead of guidance from even 12 hours ago. Meanwhile,
an impressive upper-level trough is spinning over Arizona. ALPW
imagery shows that mid-level moisture from the Pacific is making its
way into the Panhandles ahead of the trough, and moisture profiles
will continue to improve through the rest of the afternoon and
evening as the trough progresses eastward. Scattered rain showers
should begin this evening across the northwestern combined
Panhandles. Coverage of precipitation should increase in coverage
and, as cold air settles into the Panhandles, there will be a
transition to a rain/snow mix and then to snow. Given that the cold
front has progressed quicker than anticipated, won`t be surprised if
the transition to snow occurs quicker. By tomorrow`s sunrise, there
is a 70-95% chance that snow will be occurring across the
northwestern half of the combined Panhandles. Owing to modest
forcing in this portion of the event, the reasonable maximum snow
rates with 10:1 to 14:1 ratios look to remain around 1"/hour, but
around 0.2"/hour to 0.6"/hour looks most likely.
While snow continues across the northwestern half of the combined
Panhandles, the trough will be moving to the south of the Panhandles
as a potent jet streak rounds the base of the trough. A new area of
precipitation will develop in northwestern Texas owing to enhanced
upper-level divergence via the left exit region of the jet streak.
This activity will likely move into the eastern Texas Panhandles and
wrap into the central Texas Panhandle as the closed trough moves off
to the east. There is a question as to how how cool the Panhandles
will be at that time. The most recent RAP and HRRR runs switch
between rain and snow a few times which seems fairly unrealistic
given cloud cover, ongoing precipitation, and lack of warm air
advection. The current thinking is that there won`t be much
warming through the day... if at all. Therefore, currently
expecting that this new development will mostly be snow... with
the possible exception being the southeastern Texas Panhandle at
least initially.
While most, if not all guidance now have this development occurring,
the CAMs are more aggressive with the precipitation rates due to the
more intense forcing associated with the jet streak. The maximum
precipitation rates on the CAMs look to be around 0.2"/hour to
0.3"/hour... though 0.05"/hour to 0.1"/hour looks to be more common.
Despite lower snow ratios in the eastern and central Panhandles
compared to the northwest, the heaviest part of the band could
translate to snow rates of 1"/hour to 2"/hour. Among the CAMs, there
is currently around a 20-40% chance to exceed 4" of snow across the
central and eastern Texas Panhandle... though that probability is
being weighed down by the HRRR and ARW which seem unrealistically
warm resulting in rain being far more prominent. A Winter Storm
Warning may need to be considered later across the central and
eastern Texas Panhandle if trends continue.
Overall, still favoring the northwestern combined Panhandles to see
the most snow with the NBM giving a 30-60% chance to exceed 5".
Expecting snow to come to an end from northwest to southeast later
on Saturday as the sky clears also from northwest to southeast.
Given the fresh snowpack, clearing sky, and continued (albeit
modest) cold air advection, temperatures should drop at least into
the low-20s... won`t be surprised if there are lows in the teens
across the snowpack. There could be some re-freezing on roads as a
result.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
Temperatures will struggle to warm on Sunday due to the fresh
snowpack, clear sky, and weak winds. Have left the NBM alone for
now, but will need to lower Sunday`s highs once it becomes clear
where the snowpack ends up and how quickly it melts.
Warm and dry conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday as breezy
southwesterly winds materialize and help warm temperatures up into
the 60s and 70s.
Will have to watch Thursday and Friday for elevated to critical fire
weather conditions as a potentially very dynamic weather system
moves into the central CONUS.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
Conditions will decrease to MVFR and then IFR overnight into
Saturday morning in snow and low cigs. First at DHT and GUY and
then at AMA. IFR conditions will then continue through the end of
the forecast. Northeast winds may be gusty at times tonight, but
will slowly decrease through the day on Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 32 36 24 57 / 80 100 50 0
Beaver OK 32 41 22 63 / 60 70 20 0
Boise City OK 28 40 21 58 / 90 90 10 0
Borger TX 35 38 25 60 / 80 100 40 0
Boys Ranch TX 33 35 23 60 / 90 100 30 0
Canyon TX 33 36 25 58 / 70 100 40 0
Clarendon TX 34 37 28 58 / 50 90 60 0
Dalhart TX 31 36 20 58 / 90 90 20 0
Guymon OK 32 37 21 61 / 80 90 10 0
Hereford TX 33 36 24 59 / 70 90 30 0
Lipscomb TX 33 39 25 59 / 50 90 40 0
Pampa TX 32 35 25 57 / 70 100 50 0
Shamrock TX 35 36 26 58 / 40 100 70 0
Wellington TX 34 37 28 59 / 40 90 70 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM CST Saturday for TXZ001-002-006-
007.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight CST
Saturday night for TXZ003>005-008>020-317.
OK...Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM CST Saturday for OKZ001.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight CST
Saturday night for OKZ002-003.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...15
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1015 PM EST Fri Mar 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail into Saturday. A cold front is
expected to move through the area Saturday night into Sunday as
low pressure develops along it and pulls away over the Atlantic
early next week. High pressure will return thereafter.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 10 PM, latest collection of surface observations indicated
temperatures generally around 50 degrees. Temperatures tonight
should remain nearly steady in the upper 40s, supported by
steady SW winds between 5 to 10 mph. In addition, mid and high
clouds may begin to increase from the west-southwest by late
tonight.
Tonight: The pattern aloft features a zonal flow, with a strong 150-
170 kt upper jet stretches from Texas to the Mid Atlantic region
through the night. At the surface, high pressure from the Atlantic
extends across Florida, while an upstream cold front reaches near
the Appalachians late. Ahead of the front a 30-40 kt low level jet
moves in, and with a some tightening of the pressure gradient, it`ll
keep the boundary layer well mixed. This along with a rise in dew
points, will prevent us from getting anywhere near as cold as it was
this morning. Lows will drop to the upper 40s to around 50F, with a
few middle 40s in typically cooler locations. Wildfires have started
to increase in coverage again over the Southeast, as the mid
week rainfall didn`t much to alleviate the Moderate Drought that
covers most of the forecast area. HRRR and RAP Smoke graphics
show no reductions in surface visibilities, but the sky could
appear hazy and/or smoky at times due to the fires.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As surface high pressure continues to slide further into the
Atlantic, a cold front located near the Blue Ridge Mountains
will approach the forecast area throughout the day, gradually dropping
across the forecast area from the northwest overnight. Breezy
conditions are expected out ahead of the front, with gusts
around 15-20 mph, but some locations could reach 25 mph at
times. The initial approach of the front looks to remain
largely dry with little moisture present. Additionally, a few
passing clouds are possible with mostly sunny skies expected.
Highs will jump into the mid to upper 70s across the area due to
WAA ahead of the front.
The forecast will becoming increasingly unsettled Saturday
night into Monday as cyclogenesis and eventual surface low
pressure forming along the Gulf Coast rapidly advects into the
area the deep moisture needed for rainfall. Increasing rain
chances will spread in across the entire forecast area from the
southwest Saturday night into early Sunday, especially after
midnight. Low pressure will continue to track east northeast
across the Gulf Coast and into southern Georgia riding along the
remnants of the now stalled front. Numerous to widespread
showers and a perhaps a few thunderstorms will continue through
the day Sunday into the overnight period. Moving in behind the
eastward moving low is a potent shortwave which will continue
chances for showers through Sunday night as it pushes the low
out into the Atlantic around Monday morning. Rainfall will begin
to taper off Monday morning into Monday afternoon. As for
temperatures, Sunday and Monday are expected to remain in the
upper 50s to lower 60s for highs, and mid 40s to lower 50s
Saturday night and Sunday night given the recent FROPA and
ongoing rain.
Rainfall totals through the course of the event are still
uncertain as they largely depend on the track and strength of
the surface low. Currently we are forecasting about 1 to 2
inches most places, with locally higher amounts possible. The
current track of the low results in the greatest amounts (1 3/4"
to 2 1/4") falling across southeast Georgia, or in closer
proximity to the surface low, again this could change.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A dry forecast returns for Tuesday and Wednesday as surface high
pressure develops over the southeastern CONUS, with highs in the 70s
expected Tuesday through Thursday. The next chances for rain
look to occur late next week in association with a cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Prior to the 0Z TAFs, KCLX radar detected a wavy sea breeze just
inland of the radar site drifting inland. In the wake of the
sea breeze, winds across the terminals will remain steady from
the southwest between 5 to 10 kts. LLVL winds are forecast to
increase late tonight south of an approaching backdoor cold
front. Based on forecast soundings, the KCHS TAF will feature a
mention of LLWS from 8-14Z. By 14z Sat, the pressure gradient
will increase to around 4 mbs and mixing will rise between 3-5
kft, yielding gusts around 20 kts from mid-morning until the
early evening.
Extended Aviation Outlook: A storm system could result in flight
restrictions at the terminals Saturday night into Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
This evening and tonight: High pressure will be situated to the
south and southeast through the period, as a cold front drops
through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, approaching the Appalachians
late. The pressure gradient between these two features will tighten
a tad, while a 30-35 kt low level jet moves in. While mixing will be
tempered by weak warm advection, the HREF does show 70-90%
probabilities of 25 kt or more overnight. After coordination with
WFO ILM, we have raised a Small Craft Advisory on the Charleston
County ocean waters out 20 nm starting at 12 AM. The other Atlantic
waters will have some gusts near 25 kt at times, but not enough
coverage or frequent enough for the advisory. Seas will build about
2 feet through the night due to the increase in wind, reaching
as high as 3-5 feet, highest north and on the outer Georgia
waters.
Saturday through Wednesday: Gusty southwest winds will continue
Saturday out ahead of an approaching cold front. We maintain wind
gusts shy of Small Craft Advisory, in the lower 20s. A cold front
will drop southeastward through the region Saturday night into
Sunday. Then a surface low moving eastwards along the front to our
south will push offshore Monday, which could again raise wind speeds
to SCA criteria Monday. Northwest winds 25-30 kt are possible, with
the potential for gale force gusts in the outer Georgia waters. Seas
could peak near 5-8 ft beyond 10 nm. Conditions will improve Tuesday
through Wednesday as surface high pressure develops across the
Southeast U.S.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Despite the rainfall on Wednesday, fuels are still dry. Saturday,
the winds will be stronger, but RH levels are no lower than 40%
far inland. At this time these conditions do not meet the
criteria for the issuance of a Fire Danger Statement.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Saturday for AMZ350.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
520 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow accumulations up to 1 or 2 inches could create slippery
or slushy roads over far northern Wisconsin on Saturday morning
and lead to locally hazardous travel.
- River and stream levels will continue to run high due to recent
rain and snow melt runoff. Persistent daytime temperatures above
freezing will also lead to an increased potential for ice jams
and flooding on area rivers.
- Near normal temperatures through Saturday. Much above average
temperatures starting Sunday, lasting through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
Short Term...Tonight through Saturday Night
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold
front dropping south over far northern Wisconsin early this
afternoon. Cloud cover is increasing over far northern WI along
the front, but radar returns are spotty and observations are
generally void of precip. Will keep a mention of flurries in the
forecast for the rest of the afternoon across the far north. These
clouds should then continue to drop south across the region and
move into central part of the state by late afternoon, but no
wintry precip is expected.
Focus then turns to the Canadian prairies where the next clipper
is digging southeast. Focus of this forecast mainly revolves
around snowfall potential as this clipper moves across the region
on Saturday.
The cold front will rapidly slide into southern Wisconsin by late
evening. Clouds along the front will likely depart by this time
leaving a period of good radiational cooling conditions in place
for several hours into the overnight hours. As a result, dropped
minimum temperatures tonight a few degrees in the cold spots where
snowpack still exists.
Cloud bases will lower rapidly late tonight into Saturday morning
as warm advection increases with the approaching clipper. QG
forcing to go along with mid-level fgen in the warm advection zone
will lead to a swath of light snow spreading from northwest to
southeast over the course of the morning. While most of the snow
should fall north of the HWY 29 corridor, QPF and snow amounts
have increased in this forecast cycle, and now show 1-2 inches
generally north of a Rhinelander to Sister Bay line. With the
arrival of snow during the daytime hours, expect impacts to be
relatively minor, as warming temps near freezing and a higher sun
angle should keep roads slushy to wet where the highest snow is
forecast. A short period of slippery roads is possible right after
the snow starts, so will add a mention to the HWO.
Highs on Saturday will range from the middle 30s to middle 40s.
Skies will partially clear on Saturday night, but winds and clouds
should keep temps mild and near normal.
Long Term...Sunday Through Friday
Focus of this forecast mainly revolves around low impact precip
chances and seasonably warm temperatures over the next week.
Precip chances: Split flow will be the predominate pattern across
North American over the next week. Periodic northern stream
shortwaves will each push moisture-starved cold fronts across the
region, but little precipitation is expected with each front.
The first of these front slides across the region on Monday night.
Low pressure will be passing north of Lake Superior where the best
forcing and moisture is expected to reside. Therefore, most of the
area is forecast to remain dry, except for far north-central WI
where light snow showers could develop for a short time in the cold
advection regime. No significant accumulations are expected.
Another weak front could come through on Wednesday or Wednesday
night, but confidence is lower with this possibility. Light precip
chances will therefore remain low.
Temperatures: Above normal temperatures are forecast for much of
the week. Monday looks to be the warmest day with highs in the 50s
to near 60 away from Lake Michigan. These forecast temps are shy of
records by 4-5 degrees, but something to monitor if temps trend
warmer.
Otherwise, temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to the lower 50s
are expected most days across the region. Another warm up is
expected late next week ahead of a strong cyclone.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
A cold front will continue pushing through the region early this
evening; however, other than a wind shift the impact across the
TAF sites should be de minimis. A period of clearing skies will
occur late this evening through the overnight hours before mid-
level clouds arrive from the northwest early Saturday morning
(08-10Z). Cloud bases will continue to lower Saturday morning as
the next clipper moves into the region.
Confidence is increasing that light snow will develop over
northern WI after about 12Z Saturday. Kept prob30 and tempo
groups into this forecast, which indicate the most favorable
timing, though this timing may shift slightly. The snow should
only last 2-4 hours at most locations and accumulations are
expected north of a KAUW to KGRB line. 1-2 inches of accumulations
and MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible north of HWY 8,
including KRHI. VFR conditions and clearing skies are then
expected behind the departing clipper system late Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....MPC/MPC
AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
619 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 538 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
- Scattered showers will move through the Mid-South Saturday into
Sunday morning, with the highest chances (60-80%) occurring
across north MS. Total rainfall amounts will be less than one-
half inch.
- Dry conditions will return by Sunday evening and last through
the first half of next week before rain chances increase again
Wednesday and Thursday.
- Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible by next
Friday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
Latest surface analysis places a surface low near St. Louis with
a trailing cold front extending back into Kansas and the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. GOES-16 satellite trends show a plume of
upper-level moisture located across the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley while low stratus has been persistent across
the Mid-South today. This has resulted in cloudy skies across most
of the area. Temperatures as of 2 PM CST range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s north of I-40, and 60s south.
The aforementioned cold front will move across the Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight. A few sprinkles or perhaps a rain
shower are possible mainly over north Mississippi. Confidence
remains low overall with rain chances tonight due to the amount of
low to mid-level dry air present.
Short-term models indicate an upper-level low over Arizona will
move east across the Southern Plains on Saturday, and into the
Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday night into Sunday. This will
result in a return of rain showers by Saturday evening and
continuing into Sunday. Some marginal elevated instability may be
present over north Mississippi Saturday night to produce an
isolated thunderstorm but overall confidence in coverage and
occurrence remains very low.
High pressure will build in behind the low with temperatures
rising back into the 70s by Tuesday. Another upper-level low will
move across the region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing
yet another potential for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or
two. Overall rainfall amounts may average between one-quarter to
one-half inch.
Long-term operational and ensemble models indicate a stronger
upper-level low deepening over the Central Plains Friday and move
northeast into the Upper Midwest by Friday night. Increasing
instability and favorable kinematics may be conducive perhaps for
some strong to severe thunderstorms along with a potential for
heavy rainfall. However, differences still remain with the timing
and placement of an associated shortwave trough that will rotate
through the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys. This will
continue to be monitored over the next several days in subsequent
model runs.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
VFR conds are returning across the area. HRRR is indicating
perhaps a very short lived MVFR deck moving through with the cold
front. A post-frontal MVFR deck is expected to slide into JBR,
MKL and MEM for a few hours Saturday morning. SW winds will veer N
overnight then NE on Saturday with speeds around 10 kts along
with occasional gusts.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...SJM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
850 PM EST Fri Mar 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance crosses our area overnight into early Saturday
morning. Another weak low tracks well to our north Sunday night
into Monday, followed by a stronger low Monday night into Tuesday
pulling a warm front north of our area. An associated cold front
will then settle into portions of our area Tuesday night and Wednesday
before going back northward as a warm front. A cold front from the
west should then move through late Thursday into Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The winds are expected to continue to diminish into the evening.
The Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire.
Not much has changed from earlier with the weak disturbance now across
wrn/cntrl PA. Most precip has remained across these areas with plenty
of dry air across ern PA. We`ll continue with the low chance or slight
chance pops for the next 4 to 6 hours as some dynamics will work thru
the area and the latest HRRR and NAM12 show some light scattered showers
possible. Any QPF would be a few hundredths at most. It could fall
as snow for the N/W areas. Lows were adjusted slightly to keep pace
with current trends.
In the wake of the cold front associated with the departing low, temperatures
will be a tad cooler Saturday with highs in the low 40s to low 50s,
right around climo for this time of the year. That said, it will be
the dry air and gusty winds that will be the main concern. Northwest
winds look to gust up to 25-35 mph during the afternoon with dew points
falling into the teens to single digits in some locations. This will
be cause for increased fire weather concerns as a result. See the
Fire Weather section below for more details.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A warming trend will commence on Sunday and Monday.
The influence of an upper-level trough across eastern Canada will
gradually lift more toward the northeast and therefore the flow
aloft becomes less cyclonic with time. There will still be
northwesterly flow aloft however and this will steer a fairly strong
shortwave across New England. This feature may toss more cloudiness
for a time mostly across our northern areas later Sunday into
Monday. It appears though that with the forcing for ascent well
north of our area and dry air, we should remain precipitation free
despite some increased cloudiness for a time. As this occurs, a
potentially strong shortwave trough sliding across the Gulf coast
states and then off the Southeast U.S. coast Monday night will
support surface low pressure. These features are currently forecast
to slide well to our south, although some high level cloudiness
could get pulled far enough northward for a time into parts of
our area late in the weekend into early next week.
As the heights rise and the flow aloft becomes more and more from
the Midwest and Plains, milder air will advect into our area. This
should result in daytime temperatures peaking a little above average
Sunday then about 10 degrees above average for much of the area
Monday. There will still be a tightened pressure gradient in place
Sunday and this will unfortunately keep the winds elevated once
again. The wind on Sunday however is not expected to be as strong as
previous days as the overall flow within the mixing layer decreases
some. But still a notable breeze combined with a rather dry air mass
will result in a cooler feel to the air especially on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Summary...A much warmer pattern, although some cooling should
take place late in the week.
Synoptic Overview...A more zonal flow in place across our region
will get interrupted some a few times as troughs slide across
eastern Canada and New England. There may also be a couple of
shortwave troughs passing by well to our south. Low pressure
tracking well to our north should pull a warm front to our north
Tuesday, then an associated cold front may settle into parts of our
region Tuesday night and Wednesday. The front should then reverse
course as a warm front Wednesday night as the low tracks to our
west. As the low continues to track to our north during Thursday, a
cold front moves through by Friday as high pressure builds in
from the north.
For Tuesday and Wednesday...While a more zonal flow aloft resides
over our region, an upper-level trough is forecast to slide across
eastern Canada. This trough will take surface low pressure with it,
however an associated cold front will settle into at least a portion
of our area Tuesday night and Wednesday. The front itself looks to
be on the weaker side therefore we should not have much in the way
of an air mass change assuming the front does not go much farther
south. A possible fly in the ointment though is that some guidance
shows stronger high pressure sliding across southeastern Canada. If
this ends up having a stronger southern push, then the low-level
flow will be more onshore and therefore cooler air from the chilly
ocean. Additional energy though moving into the Plains will help
organize surface low pressure, which will track northeastward. This
low will push the aforementioned front back to the north as a warm
front later Wednesday. The warmth of the air mass will peak prior to
a cold front approaching from the west. The low-level flow however
looks to be light enough at this point, which should favor a marine
influence and therefore keeping temperatures several degrees cooler
along the coastal areas.
For Thursday and Friday...The upper-level energy may split with the
parent trough sliding across southeastern Canada and New England,
which takes surface low pressure with it. Another piece of energy
slides off the Southeast U.S. coast. We therefore just get left with
a cold front crossing the area later Thursday. This setup may result
in not much in the way of precipitation chances, however will
continue with some slight chance to low-end chance PoPs for Thursday
into early Friday. Surface high pressure is then currently forecast
to build into our area from the north, resulting in a cooler air
mass but still above average. It may very well be noticeably cooler
along the coast as the low-level wind may end up being out of the
northeast or east.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Overnight...Mainly VFR. Brief sub-VFR conditions possible with
light rain or snow showers. West wind around 5-10 kt. Moderate
confidence.
Saturday...VFR. Northwest winds increasing to around 15 knots with
gusts 20-25 knots in the afternoon. High confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday night...VFR. West-northwest winds quickly drop below 10
knots during the evening.
Sunday...VFR. Southwest to west wind gusts of 20-25 knots for a time
during the day.
Monday through Wednesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
West to Southwest winds will continue diminishing overnight with
the final SCA flag coming down after midnight. Seas 3 to 5
feet will diminish through tonight, eventually falling below SCA
levels.
Winds and seas will likely stay below SCA criteria for the first
part of Saturday before northwest winds ramp back up in the afternoon.
A few gusts of 20-25 knots are possible. Seas look to stay 3 to
4 feet, but a few 5 foot waves are possible further offshore.
Outlook...
Saturday night... West-northwest winds may gust gust to 25 knots to
start Saturday evening, otherwise the conditions should be below
Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Sunday through Wednesday...The conditions are anticipated to be
below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An SPS was issued during the late afternoon Friday for the
increasing fire spread danger for Saturday as dry and gusty
conditions will continue into Saturday.
For Saturday, wind gusts 25 to 30 mph possible with minRH values
generally 25 to 30 percent. If the mixing layer is slightly deeper
than what we are currently forecasting on Saturday, RH values could
go even lower.
The one factor working in our favor to limit the fire spread
threat is the widespread rainfall (0.75-2.00 inches) the area
received on Wednesday.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Gorse
NEAR TERM...MJL/po
SHORT TERM...Gorse
LONG TERM...Gorse
AVIATION...Gorse/MJL/po
MARINE...Gorse/MJL
FIRE WEATHER.../po
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
553 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer temperatures today, then much cooler on Saturday.
- Marginal chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms
tonight mainly east of a Robert Lee to Brady line.
- Frost and possible light freezes for Sunday and Monday mornings.
- Increased potential for elevated to critical fire weather
conditions Saturday and again for next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
Mostly sunny skies and breezy westerly winds have allowed
temperatures to climb into the 80s across all of west central
Texas. Changes are on the way tonight, however, in the form of an
upper level system and associated cold frontal boundary.
An upper level low currently spinning over Arizona is forecast to
progress eastward across New Mexico Saturday morning and emerge
into the southern Texas Panhandle by Saturday afternoon. Ahead of
this feature, a shortwave trough is progged to move across our
area overnight. A surface low is also forecast to develop
overnight in the vicinity of the northern Edwards Plateau/Concho
Valley. High res models continue to develop scattered showers and
thunderstorms mainly across the Big Country/Heartland near the
surface low/triple point intersection. Most of this activity will
remain elevated. However, given the steep lapse rates aloft,
MUCAPE values of around 1000 J/KG, and abundant deep layer shear
large hail will be possible with the strongest storms.
The other challenge in the short term will be the temperature
forecast for tomorrow. High res guidance holds highs in the Big
Country in the upper 30s/lower 40s behind the front- owing to
cold air advection, abundant cloud cover, and periods of light
rain and showers continuing into the afternoon. Temperatures
will be warmest across the northern Edwards Plateau and northwest
Hill Country ahead of the front. Have under cut the model blend
for tomorrow given the trends in the HRRR and RAP- going with
highs in the mid 40s in the Big Country, 50s across the Concho
Valley and Heartland, and upper 60s along the I-10 corridor.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
...Fire Weather Concerns will continue through next week...
Isolated to scattered showers are expected to linger into Saturday
night, mainly across portions of the Big Country and northern
Heartland, as the upper level low and associated upper-level
trough tracks through West Central Texas Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning. The much cooler high temperatures behind
the cold front Saturday will translate into much cooler overnight
lows dipping into the 30s overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.
Cold advection kicks in following the system and will make for a
colder conditions Sunday morning and Monday morning, with lows in
the 30s allowing for the possibility for frost or light freezes
areawide.
Once the cooler air clears from the area and we begin the warming
and drying trend from Tuesday into Friday next week, the next
round of impactful weather will start on Wednesday. With models
showing strong winds, warm temperatures, and very low RH values
potentially in the single digits to around 15 percent, Wednesday
through Friday will see elevated to critical fire weather
conditions across much of the area. We will continue to monitor
this potentially hazardous situation closely through the weekend
and into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025
A cold front will drop south across the area overnight into early
Saturday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible along
the front overnight, primarily at KABI. Will include a PROB30
group for TS to account of this potential. Otherwise, stratus
will develop behind the front from KBBD north to KABI, where MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop after 12Z. Stratus is expected to
linger through the afternoon hours at KABI and scattering out to
VFR at KBBD by mid morning. Expect gusty north winds behind the
front into the afternoon hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 42 47 34 60 / 40 40 10 0
San Angelo 46 58 35 63 / 20 10 0 0
Junction 50 68 34 63 / 10 0 0 0
Brownwood 46 57 35 60 / 60 30 0 0
Sweetwater 42 47 34 61 / 30 20 0 0
Ozona 49 64 34 63 / 10 0 0 0
Brady 51 61 37 60 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...24