Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/04/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
934 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area tonight gradually shifts further
offshore overnight, keeping dry weather in place. A strong cold
front approaches and crosses the area Wednesday, bringing
widespread showers and the potential for a few severe
thunderstorms. Dry weather returns to end the week as high
pressure settles south of the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 934 PM EST Monday...
Key Messages:
- One more cold night with lows in the upper 20s-lower 30s.
- Milder Tuesday with increasing clouds.
A quiet evening is ongoing across the forecast area. An expansive
area of high pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic Coast has led to
light winds and clear skies. These ideal radiational cooling
conditions have already helped temperatures drop into the lower to
mid 30s. Along the Eastern Shore, temperatures range from the upper
20s in the Maryland counties to the lower to mid 30s in the VA
counties. Temperatures are forecast to drop another few degrees
overnight into the upper 20s to lower 30s, so another chilly March
night is on tap for the forecast area. Winds will pick up some in
the early morning hours and a layer of upper level clouds will also
move in around the same time, so conditions will become less
favorable for radiational cooling and temperatures will level off.
High pressure will move further offshore overnight and into
tomorrow. An approaching strong mid-latitude low over the Plains
will move eastward during the day tomorrow, and the gradient between
the aforementioned high and this low will tighten. Southerly winds
will increase in magnitude by mid-morning, which will support decent
warm air advection across the region. Temperatures will quickly rise
into the lower to mid-60s (upper 50s on the Eastern Shore) despite
the increasing upper-level cloud cover expected due to moistening
aloft. Winds will peak tomorrow afternoon when the best mixing
occurs, with occasional to frequent gusts of 20-25 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM EST Monday...
Key Messages:
- A strong cold front brings breezy winds, widespread showers
and storms, and possibly severe storms Wednesday into
Wednesday night.
- Cooler and breezy Thursday.
There remains decent agreement among the latest guidance on the
synoptic evolution of the next storm system. A deep layer trough and
closed low over the Southwest CONUS and Intermountain West will
induce sfc cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies Tuesday. The low
quickly deepens to sub-990 mb Tuesday afternoon as is traverses
NE through the Plains and Midwest. The attendant cold front
also pushes eastward and will cross the OH Valley and Deep South
states Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Robust warm
advection continues into Tuesday night and lows will be quite
mild; in fact, temps may rise some after about 06z/1 AM
Wednesday. The sfc warm lift then lifts northward through the
region around sunrise Wednesday, with dew points increasing into
the upper 50s and potentially lower 60s by the late morning and
afternoon.
Expect light to moderate showers to increase in coverage across
western portions of the area later Wednesday morning as a region of
upper-level divergence and ascent translates eastward and a 50-70 kt
low-level jet develops. The cold front will lag further to the W
(closer to the spine of the Appalachians), before finally moving
through in the evening. Multiple rounds of showers and storms are
possible and PoPs remain 90-100% for most of the area, though it
will not be raining all day. The breaks in the precip will be
important in dictating if and where any severe potential develops.
The latest available CAMs (mainly the HRRR and 3 km NAM/NAMNest at
this point) both suggest an initial band/line of showers (and
possibly embedded tstms) traversing the CWA in the late morning and
early afternoon. There is uncertainty regarding how much available
instability there will be ahead of this line across the E/SE, with
mean SBCAPE very low. Thus, this initial batch of showers/storms may
not be totally surface-based...limiting the overall severe
potential. Nevertheless, modeled wind fields are very impressive and
bulk wind shear values will be strong to extreme, suggesting any
stronger storm could still mix down some elevated winds to the
surface. The other question surrounds potential destabilization
behind this initial batch and any redevelopment along and just ahead
of the actual cold front. The NAM is quite aggressive in
suggesting such destabilization as low-level lapse rates
increase in response to sfc heating and mid-level lapse rates
steepen due to mid-level cooling and drying. The ECMWF also has
increased its modeled CAPE in this later afternoon timeframe and
mean LREF/NBM CAPE is around 500 J/kg. Such values, combined
with strong low and deep-layer wind shear, are more than
favorable for strong-severe storms. Still, this scenario being
realized is still uncertain and is highly dependent on the
behavior of early-day convection. Any additional showers and
storms should progress eastward through the evening and shift
offshore closer to 06z/1 AM Thursday. SPC continues to highlight
the entire area in a slight risk for severe weather. The main
threats continue to be damaging wind gusts (given the very
strong wind fields aloft) and spin-up tornadoes (given favorable
low-level/0- 500m/0-1km shear and SRH).
Regarding temps, a mild day is expected Wednesday given the warm
advection and robust southerly flow. Highs range from the mid 60s N
to upper 60s and potentially lower 70s S. The higher end of the
temperature potential is dependent on any cloud breaks.
Additionally, gusty S winds of 30-40 mph are likely outside of any
convection, with locally higher gusts possible. While a Wind
Advisory looks unlikely as of now, this potential will be reassessed
in future updates. Drying out late Wednesday night as cooler air
filters in. Lows range from around 40 F W to the mid-upper 40s E.
Cooler Thursday behind the front with highs in the mid-upper 50s,
under mostly to partly sunny sky. Westerly/northwest winds will be
gusty due to cold/dry advection and a well-mixed boundary layer. The
current wind forecast has gusts of 25-30 mph, with 30-35 mph on the
Eastern Shore.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 PM EST Monday...
Key Messages:
- Cool/dry weather continues into Friday.
- The next chance for showers arrives this weekend as another
cold front moves through.
Cooler and drier conditions continue into Friday as the trough axis
shifts offshore and high pressure at the sfc settles south of the
area. This will also allow winds to slacken. Temperatures again
slowly moderate in the post-frontal environment with highs in
the upper 50 to around 60 F Friday. A weak low and shortwave
aloft likely slides near or north of the area Friday night into
early Saturday, bringing a chance for some light rain showers.
Given uncertainty and the light nature of any precip, will keep
PoPs at around 20% for now. The latest model guidance also
suggests a southern-stream low pressure system develops later
Saturday and moves in our general direction. The 12z GFS
amplifies this system much more and shows a large shield of
moderate-heavy precip Sunday (and a much stronger low), though
this model has displayed significant run-to-run variability. The
ECMWF and CMC keep the low, and much of its precip, suppressed
to our S. The later solution appears more likely at this time
and this is also supported by the ensemble guidance. Still, a
chance for rain/showers continues in the forecast and 30-40%
PoPs appear reasonable at this time (highest for SE VA and NE
NC). For temperatures, mid-upper 60s are expected Saturday,
cooling back into the 50s Sunday behind the associated cold
front. Overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 628 PM EST Monday...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light winds
overnight will give way to increasing southerlies by early tomorrow
morning. by mid to late-morning, gusts of 15-20 knots are possible
at most terminals aside from ECG. Upper-level clouds will move in
early tomorrow morning, then increase in coverage as the day
progresses.
Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions continue through the first part
of Tuesday night. A strong cold front approaches the area
Wednesday with widespread showers, gusty winds, and degraded
flying conditions. Prevailing CIGs primarily look to stay MVFR
or VFR, though reduced VSBY is likely in any shower or
thunderstorm. Additionally, widespread low-level wind shear of
40-60 kt also develops. Clearing out Thursday and Friday, with
gusty W-NW winds expected Thursday afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 335 PM EST Monday...
Key Messages:
- Sub-Advisory conditions expected through Tuesday evening
- Gale Watches in effect for all waters Wed morning through late
Wed night.
Sub-advisory marine conditions prevail this afternoon through
tomorrow as high pressure along the coast slides offshore. Latest
obs reflect onshore winds at 5-10kt, seas at 1-2ft, and waves of 1ft
or less. Overnight, winds shift to the SE and increase to 10-15kt
before sunrise. SSE winds then continue through the day Tues,
gradually increasing as the pressure gradient tightens between
departing high pressure and an incoming cold front. By Tues evening,
winds will be up to ~15kt. Seas increase to 3ft Tues evening, waves
1-2ft. Winds continue to increase through Tues night to ~20kt by
early Wed morning.
An strong cold front approaching along with a 40-50kt LLJ will lead
to elevated winds with the potential for gale-force gusts on Wed.
Sustained winds of 25-30kt are anticipated with gusts up to 35kt
over most local waters (to 40kt for northern coastal waters). As
such, a Gale Watch is in effect for all local waters starting Wed
morning into Wed night. Highest confidence is for coastal waters N
of Cape Charles where local wind probs approach 95% Wed afternoon.
Probs for the bay and southern waters peak at 45-60%. While both the
forecast and local probs are just under gale criteria for the rivers
and the Currituck sound, went ahead and included these bodies in the
Gale Watch since nearshore gusts have a habit of over-performing with
winds coming off the land where mixing is better. Did narrow the
time window for the watch, though. Convection is anticipated with
this system with the potential for a few severe storms, which could
lead to instances of winds in excess of 40kt. Seas build to 6-10ft
Wed with highest seas off the MD coast. Waves in the bay build to 3-
5ft, 2-3ft in the rivers. Winds become westerly behind the front
Thurs morning. While gusty winds are still expected, they will
likely be sub-gale (gusts to 25kt) through the afternoon. Another
round of gales will be possible Thurs night as winds turn to the NW,
but look to be contained to the upper bay and MD coastal waters.
Conditions gradually improve through the day Fri and winds turn back
to the S.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 400 PM EST Monday...
Key Messages:
- Remaining dry into Tuesday.
Dry weather continues into Tuesday with min RHs of around 30%.
Southerly winds will also be a little higher, with gusts up to
20 mph possible. These values fall shy of criteria for an IFD
SPS, so will refrain from issuing anything at this time. However,
extra caution should be taken to avoid fire ignitions given the
very dry conditions, and all residents should refer to any
local burn bans in place. Virginia residents are reminded that
open burning is prohibited before 4 pm each day through April
30th.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night
for ANZ630>632-634-638-650-652-654-656-658.
Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
for ANZ633-635>637.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW/NB
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW/NB
MARINE...AC
FIRE WEATHER...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
605 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 226 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
Key Messages:
* Unseasonably warm temperatures expected on Tuesday (80s and 90s);
minor HeatRisk for Brooks, Hidalgo, much of Cameron and Willacy,
western half of Inland Kenedy, and parts of Jim Hogg and Starr
Counties.
* Strong cold front to bring a substantial and drastic airmass
change on Tuesday
* Very low humidity values coupled with some breezy winds on
already dry soils will result in elevated to critical fire
weather on Tuesday.
* A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks,
Starr, and northern Hidalgo Counties
* A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for southern Hidalgo,
and Inland and Coastal Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron Counties
Fire weather concerns along with adverse to hazardous marine/beach
conditions will be in focus through the short term weather forecast
period, particularly on Tuesday.
Through tonight, mild to warm conditions will continue as the
forecast area remains squarely in the warm sector of a formidable and
strengthening mid-latitude cyclone now ejecting out of the central
Rockies into the central Plains. Overnight low temperatures will be
on the order of about 10F degrees above normal with values ranging
from the mid to upper 70s across parts of the Northern Ranchlands to
the lower 70s across mid-lower RGV. Mist/fog is not anticipated as
sfc winds out of the south-southeast are expected to remain
elevated.
During the day on Tuesday, ahead of a strong cold front, strong warm
air advection (WAA) bolstered by increased low level jet (LLJ) winds
just to our north and offshore, and less clouds will result in above
normal daytime high temperatures (by some 10-15F degrees) with
values making a run for the mid-upper 80s to lower 90s (warmest
along the Rio Grande Valley and west).
As highlighted earlier, a strong cold front associated with a potent
988 mb mid-latitude cyclone will indeed be one of our primary
drivers of our weather pattern over the next 24-48 hours,
specifically on Tuesday. Computer models continue to advertise an
anomalously strong cold front ejecting out of the southwestern U.S.
and sweeping across Deep South Texas on Tuesday. This cold front is
associated with a deepening 988 hpa sfc low pressure system that
will track across the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley
over the next 48 hours. A heightened risk for severe weather awaits
across the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley along
with a widespread area of elevated to critical fire weather
conditions New mexico into Texas that includes us here in Deep South
Texas.
This cold front will sweep through the region on Tuesday resulting
in a significant and drastic airmass change that will trigger
elevated to critical fire weather concerns as well as adverse to
hazardous marine/beach hazards on Tuesday. Amid the cool fropa,
cooler and notably drier air mass will take place. The NBM had
noticeably higher dewpoint values after the cold frontal passage
compared to the HRRR model. Decided to go with a blend of the NBM 10
percentile and HRRR to reflect a more realistic situation with what
will take place with the dewpoints on Tuesday.
With dewpoint values expected to drop into the single digits, and
relative humidity values expected to lower under 15-20% across much
of the area, on top of breezy sfc to near sfc winds, and dry
antecedent and cured soil conditions, we decided to upgrade a Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks,
Starr, and northern Hidalgo Counties. Meanwhile, have opted to go
with a Fire Danger Statement for southern Hidalgo, and Inland &
Coastal Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy Counties. The Storm Prediction
Center has a Critical Fire Weather Outlooked for our western zones
(i.e. Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, Brooks) and Elevated Fire Weather
concerns points east.
We urged everyone to exercise fire weather safety measures on
tomorrow. That includes no burning as a wildfire could spread
quickly upon ignition.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
Key Messages:
- Above normal high temperatures and near to slightly below normal
low temperatures prevail through early next week.
- Elevated fire weather concerns continue on Wednesday and return
once again over the weekend with the passage of another cold
front.
- Rain-free conditions and breezy wind gusts will persist through
the period.
A very dry airmass will be in place across Deep South Texas
Wednesday morning in wake of the passage of a Pacific cold front.
Relative humidity values Wednesday morning will range from 20-30
percent across the Northern Ranchlands to around 50-60 percent
along the Lower Texas beaches. However, these values will fall
into the 10-20 percent range along and west of US-281 and 20-30
percent along I-69 by the afternoon hours. In combination with
cured fuels and warm temperatures, this will yield elevated fire
weather concerns once again for Deep South Texas as conditions are
favorable for rapid fire starts. Fortunately, winds won`t be quite
as strong as Tuesday afternoon, which should limit the potential
for rapid fire spread. A Fire Danger Statement will likely be
issued for Wednesday for most of Deep South Texas, and outdoor
burning is not recommended.
Surface high pressure will be centered over the Southeastern US by
Thursday as ridging aloft prevails over the state, allowing for
the return of low level southerly flow. A tightening pressure
gradient associated with a developing surface low east of the
Rockies will result in breezy southerly winds Thursday and Friday.
As the surface low translates across the Plains, a cold front will
sweep across the state and reach Deep South Texas on Saturday.
This will once again drop afternoon relative humidity values and
result in elevated fire weather concerns this weekend as values
range from 15-30 percent across most of the region except for the
Lower Texas beaches.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
MVFR ceilings are generally expected tonight with gusty
southerly winds. A dry front arrives by tomorrow afternoon with
northerly winds and VFR ceilings.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 226 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
Tonight through Tuesday night...Deteriorating marine conditions are
expected to take place through tonight as seas elevate. Small Craft
Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions are in place currently. However,
Small Craft Advisory conditions will go into effect tonight and
persist into Tuesday.
Wednesday through next Monday...Adverse marine conditions will
persist through the weekend due to an enhanced pressure gradient.
Small Craft Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions
are likely over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre as winds and seas
remain elevated, especially towards the end of the week as a cold
front approaches. Otherwise, expect rain-free conditions.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
Tuesday....A strong cold front is progged to move through Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Tuesday. This will result in a
significant and drastic airmass change, particularly with notably
drier air moving in. Dewpoint temperatures are expected to drop into
the single digits with relative humidity values expected to drop as
low as 15% of areas inland and 20% for the coastal counties.
Additionally, winds will be in acceptable thresholds across our
western zones. As a result, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for
Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Starr, and northern Hidalgo counties.
Meanwhile, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect for southern
Hidalgo, Inland and Coastal Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron Counties.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 71 89 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 68 90 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 71 91 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 67 90 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 78 58 69 / 0 0 0 0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 86 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 9 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ248>250-
252-353.
High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CST Tuesday through Tuesday
afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday
for GMZ170-175.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...56-Hallman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
511 PM MST Mon Mar 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A winter system is bringing blizzard, winter storm/advisory,
and high wind warnings to the region through Tuesday.
- A follow-up system will bring additional snow late Wednesday
through early Friday with winds not quite as strong.
- A return to mild and dry conditions is expected to start next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 111 PM MST Mon Mar 3 2025
A very difficult forecast as model guidance remains spread on
the expected precipitation for the region which leads to high
uncertainty, but there is at least moderate to high confidence
in expected winds leading to the issuance of blizzard warnings
for a few of our highest confidence zones while the remainder
of the region should see winter weather advisory criteria from
light snow alongside strong winds as well.
Tonight: Currently several showers/snow showers are ongoing
across Colorado and lifting into Wyoming alongside a few light
echoes in the Nebraska Panhandle. Mesoanalysis shows pockets of
MUCAPE of around 100-250 J/kg and alongside orographic
enhancement, a few of these are producing plenty of lightning.
High resolution guidance suggests the favorable instability will
continue to shift eastwards towards the Nebraska Panhandle as
activity begins to overspread into this region, so expect
isolated showers and thunderstorms to continue along the I-80
corridor through the evening hours. Then as our temperatures
drop with the southward descending cold airmass, expect this
activity to transition to snowfall later this evening and
overnight. This timing will be critical to snow accumulations as
the faster it happens, the more snow we will be able to
accumulate.
Early to late morning Tuesday: Low pressure will continue to
transition eastwards as cold air overspreads and brings the
ingredients for snowfall across the region. High uncertainty
begins due to low model confidence in where the heaviest snow
accumulations for our region will develop. Even high resolution
guidance such as the HRRR is flip-flopping between runs, with
areas from Laramie County to all along the Panhandle being
candidates for heavier band(s) of snowfall. The most consistent
guidance seems to be placing the strongest band across the
southern Nebraska Panhandle including Banner, Kimball, and
Cheyenne counties, including both high resolution guidance and
the NBM. This combined with the high certainty in strong
northerly winds gusting between 50-60 mph led to a Blizzard
warning being issued. Other candidates for blizzard level
criteria include the northern counties of the Panhandle
alongside eastern Laramie, but model confidence wanes
significantly for these areas. If the transition to snowfall can
occur fast enough and a moderate to heavy quick band of
snowfall can be produced, significantly reduced visibilities may
be possible for these locations as well. It will all depend on
the low and if the system continues to remain consolidated or if
the low elongates and pushes out favorable flow and moisture.
Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning: Products will begin to
expire moving into the afternoon and evening Tuesday as
precipitation should shift eastwards out of the region and winds
lessen Tuesday evening. With low pressure exiting a quick
transitory ridge will overtake the region and help to clear us
out, but moving into the long term this will be short lived as
we see our next system by Wednesday overnight into Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM MST Mon Mar 3 2025
Wednesday...Low amplitude transitory shortwave ridging aloft
prevails, producing a dry day with a decent warming trend. 700 mb
temperatures near -4 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures from
the lower 40s to lower 50s.
Thursday...As another negatively tilted shortwave trough aloft moves
over Wyoming and Colorado, the airmass becomes more saturated and
low level upslope easterly flow will help generate widespread light
snow, with the highest areal coverage over and near the mountains.
Cooler temperatures expected with all the precipitation coverage.
Friday...Decreasing chances for snowfall expected as a weak
shortwave ridge aloft builds overhead.
Saturday...Dry, breezy and warmer as the flow aloft becomes north
northwest and the low and mid level gradients strengthen. 700 mb
temperatures near -8 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures from
the upper 30s to upper 40s.
Sunday...The warming trend will continue as the flow aloft becomes
northwest and 500 mb heights rise about 80 meters. A drier airmass
and 700 mb temperatures near 0 Celsius will yield maximum
temperatures from the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Monday...Mild temperatures will continue as the flow aloft backs to
westerly and the airmass remains quite dry. With downslope west
winds and 700 mb temperatures near 2 Celsius, high temperatures will
be in the upper 40s west of I-25, with mid 50s to mid 60s east of I-
25.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 507 PM MST Mon Mar 3 2025
Deteriorating aviation conditions are expected through the
overnight. Currently, scattered rain showers are ongoing east of the
Laramie Range, with more stratiform snow west of the Laramie Range.
Rain will gradually transition to snow late night at western
Nebraska terminals. With the transition, CIGs will gradually drop
below VFR and visibility will also degrade below VFR. Wind will also
pick up overnight. Terminals east of the Laramie Range can expect to
see gusts over 40 kts tomorrow morning. Strong winds could lead to
areas of significantly reduced visibility due to blowing and
drifting snow.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ106>108-
116>119.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Tuesday for WYZ103.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for WYZ106-110-
115>119.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ112-114.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
Tuesday for NEZ002-003-021.
High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 5 PM MST Tuesday for NEZ002-003-
019-021-095-096.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Tuesday for NEZ019-095-
096.
Blizzard Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Tuesday
for NEZ020-054-055.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...SF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
536 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms Tuesday; Some Severe Storms Possible
- Dangerous Winds, Even Without Thunderstorms
- Light Snow, But Blizzard Conditions Likely With Winds
- Break Middle of Week, More Activity Friday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 434 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
H5 ridge axis is passing through the area with low-level flow
southerly, WAA has sent temperatures into the mid 60s across much of
the area. Cloud cover has arrived ahead of the strong trough that
will bring multiple weather hazards Tuesday through Wednesday.
The strong PV anomaly that has been advertised the past several days
sits over the Intermountain West with deep trough axis currently
centered near the Four Corners Region. The 120+ kt H3 jet streak is
starting to the round the base of the deep trough, and this will
likely be the source of it acquiring a negative tilt over the next 12
hours. As a result of this expected evolution, dCVA will remain very
strong across the Front Range and High Plains, allows a robust
surface cyclone to develop. We will see surface pressure falls start
late this evening and will continue through much of the afternoon
across the area. We already had one warm front pass through the area
this morning, a second warm front, with higher dewpoints this time
is expected to surge as this system propagates eastward through
tomorrow. This will provide a higher theta-e airmass during the
overnight hours through Tuesday later afternoon. Mid-level height
falls should start by late morning across the area, which will begin
to provide broad synoptic scale lift from eastern Kansas to the
middle Mississippi River Valley. The system will eventually become a
vertically stacked closed-low system, but expecting this cyclone to
deepen for most of its journey across the Central Plains. As a
result of this, a strong pressure gradient will result in very
strong winds. Through Tuesday afternoon, expecting gusts between 40
and 55MPH, and precipitation drag will bring down a lot of that
momentum. The center of the surface cyclone should exit our forecast
area around 7-9pm CST Tuesday Night, with very cold air coming in
behind, and pushing a strong cold front across the entire area. At
this time the system starts to become vertically stacked, and its
propagation may slow down a bit, but the vorticity max may still be
providing lift, which will continue snowfall heading into Wednesday
morning. In the next section, the rainfall and thunderstorm details
will be discussed, and the section after that will address the
snowfall, including the blizzard and near blizzard conditions.
With the second warm front moving through with enhanced southerly
flow, isentropic ascent will be quite deep, bringing in lower cloud
decks. Most of the atmospheric column will saturate, which will result
in an expansive rain shield across our forecast area. Initial
showers move in after 07-08z, and rapidly expands after 11z-12z.
With 850mb winds near 45+ kts, this momentum likely will make it to
the surface with stronger shower activity, and perhaps could bring
down gusts above 50 kts. Some guidance has been depicting MUCAPE
values above 500 J/kg, and some CAMs go above 1000 J/kg, which could
be possible with the strong theta-e advection. Therefore, elevated
thunderstorms are possible within an expansive rain shield. While
downdrafts themselves are not likely to produce the severe wind
gusts, if there is any low-level jet present above 50kts, that could
make it down the surface as previously mentioned. Because most of
the morning activity will be a congealed cluster, not seeing much of
a signal for any hail, but would not expect anything larger than
quarters with morning convection, especially as the freezing level
continues to move upward with the WAA. As for rainfall totals, still
looking at a widespread 1.0 inches across most of the forecast area,
with an axis of 1 to 2 inches possible for Northern Missouri where
the warm front stalls and moisture may likely pool. Deterministic
HRRR has been consistent with producing between 1 to 2 inches for
areas north of Interstate 70, and HREF mean is also in this range.
The HREF probability matched mean field in HREF shows some maximum
closer to 3 inches possible, thinking this would be attributed if we
are able to get stronger convection to develop. Overall, this will
be strongly forced through the morning. There is potential during
the afternoon for a dry slot or some kind of sting jet like feature
to roll through ahead of the cold front, and cut across portions of
the warm-sector. If this materializes, the most favorable track
still appears to be along the southeastern portion of the forecast
area. This could also set the stage for further destabilization
heading into the middle and late afternoon hours if clearing allows
for strong insolation. After 20z, CAMs continue to depict a second
line of storms developing mainly along the cold front, moving
eastward at a decent speed given the strong steering flow available.
How strong the mid to late afternoon activity gets will depend on
how much destabilization occurs, which will be impacted by both the
stratiform precip from the morning and any potential clearing.
Currently HREF mean MUCAPE is only around 1000 J/kg, but there are
some CAMs that get closer to 1500 J/kg. The higher CAPE producing
models are clearing skies ahead of the cold front. With storm
motions near 50kts, along with winds at the top of the mixed layer
above 60 kts, it should be fairly easy for storms to produce severe
wind gusts. If there is enough destabilization, perhaps hail around
the size of a quarter could be achieved. However, it appears that
deep layer shear vectors (such as 0-6km values well above 55 kts)
are parallel to the cold front. Therefore, this leads to a linear
storm mode or some kind of MCS, and given the storm motions it may
be hard for cells to remain discrete for a long period of time.
Therefore, winds will be the primary threat. Yesterday, we discussed
low-end tornado potential given the higher SRH along the warm front
backing winds along the surface pressure trough. There is still
favorable kinematics, but given the fast storm motions and storm
mode that congeals fairly quickly, it will be very difficult for
this threat to materialize. Even if it does, the overall wind gusts
with this system will likely be a greater hazard then any type of
spin up as a result of vorticity stretching. After the cold front
moves through, colder air comes in behind this system, with gusty
winds and snow.
This dynamic system is expected to have a very strong TROWAL and
deformation zone associated with it, a classic feature for robust
dendrite development. Both coarser synoptic scale numerical model
guidance as well as CAM guidance depict very robust FGEN bands
developing in northwest Missouri, with some enhanced FGEN values
expanding down the I-29/I-49 corridor. Low EPV values also align
within this zone and in a saturated DGZ, lending itself to higher
potential for conditional symmetric instability (CSI) release. The
fast speed of the system will help to limit snowfall totals, but
given all of this forcing coming into favorable alignment, may see
an hour or two of snow ratios of 12:1 or even 13:1, despite thermal
profiles that typically would favor something under 10:1. There has
been an overall uptick in snowfall accumulations in most ensemble
suites, including the CAMs especially for northwestern Missouri.
Given the stronger forcing, it is appearing that 1 to 2 inches of
snow is possible for our northwest counties, with a few tenths of an
inch in our western area and may expand into central Missouri. HREF
mean value is generally favorable between 1 to 2 inches in our
northwest, with just under one inch elsewhere. Though, will mention
that with the 18z cycles, some solutions are depicting bands closer
to 4 inches, especially in northwest Missouri. Confidence was not
high enough to place a 4 inch band in the forecast for our
northwest, but will discuss it here since this synoptic setup could
easily support it if the moisture content is there. But with winds
just above surface above 60kts, many of the ice crystals may
fracture, there resulting in lower accumulations. Its a tough
balance between the robust FGEN and CSI, and the turbulent winds for
how dendrites develop and break apart as they fall toward the
boundary layer. In addition to banding snow, overall wind gusts will
not let up overnight, and we may see wind gusts as high as 60-70 MPH
in some spots. Although snowfall amounts are not overly impressive,
the rapid forcing with very strong winds will create near blizzard
conditions if not reach actual criteria, primarily for northwest
Missouri and northeast Kansas. The winds certainly will get there,
and thinking visibilities will drop toward 1/4 mile. This will make
for difficult travel. Gusty winds will start before the snowfall,
and will continue after the snowfall, therefore we have the
overlapping Wind Headlines and Winter Weather Headlines. For the
Blizzard Warning, this is the area where we are confident that
visibilities will drop to around 1/4 mile with the gusty winds and
snowfall. The surrounding Winter Weather Advisory is still expected
to have some snowfall with winds gusts above 60 MPH, but, the
snowfall banding potential is less confident, therefore less
confidence that visibility drops to 1/4 mile, but may still drop
below 1 mile overnight. So although the forecast may not look
drastically different between the Blizzard Warning and Winter
Weather Advisory, it is mainly confidence related in banding snow
and its impact on visibility. The 00z CAM guidance may help better
depict snow banding, and if this appears to expand, counties in
Winter Weather Advisory may need to be upgraded to a Blizzard
Warning. Once the forcing exits, pressure gradient remains strong,
and winds likely continue through Wednesday afternoon. We may be
able to downgrade the High Wind Warning by late Wednesday morning to
a Wind Advisory, especially if wind gusts are below 60 MPH.
After this system passes, expecting cooler temperatures but mostly
dry conditions. Another system is expected to arrive on Friday,
which could bring more accumulating precipitation to portions of the
area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
VFR conditions will start the TAF period with winds out of the south
gusting to around 20-25 mph through the evening. MVFR cigs
anticipated to develop overnight and worsen to IFR early Tuesday
morning. Rain showers and possible thunderstorms will keep
visibilities low late tomorrow morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...High Wind Warning from 9 PM Tuesday to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
MOZ001>005-011>014-020>022-028>030-037.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 AM CST
Wednesday for MOZ003-004-013-020.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
MOZ006>008-015>017-023>025-031>033-038>040-043>046-053-
054.
Blizzard Warning from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 AM CST Wednesday for
MOZ001-002-011-012.
KS...High Wind Warning from 9 PM Tuesday to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
KSZ025-057-102>105.
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 AM CST
Wednesday for KSZ025.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
KSZ060.
Blizzard Warning from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 AM CST Wednesday for
KSZ102.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Collier
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
506 PM MST Mon Mar 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Red Flag Warning Monday afternoon for Cheyenne county in
Colorado along with Wallace and Greeley counties in Kansas.
- Isolated strong to severe storms possible across northwest
portions of the area late Monday afternoon.
- An impactful blizzard is forecast to begin tonight and last
through the day Tuesday. Have added Sherman, Rawlins and
Hitchcock counties to the Blizzard Warning. The remainder of
the area not in the Blizzard Warning is under a Winter Weather
Advisory due to the blowing snow concerns.
- Snowfall amounts are forecast around 3-5 inches in the Warning
but a band of much higher amounts is possible as well. The
greatest impacts will be in this band where power outages and
damage to trees is possible. Travel will become treacherous to
even impossible across the blizzard warning.
- The High Wind Warning has been expanded to include in the
entire forecast area with wind gusts up to 70 mph forecast.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 503 PM MST Mon Mar 3 2025
Added a mention of fog for this evening generally north of
Interstate 70 including all of southwest Nebraska. Models show
fog redeveloping in those areas which is confirmed by
observations just north and east of the forecast area.
Visibility may be reduced to as low as a quarter of a mile at
times, though increasing winds will keep it well mixed and work
against the lower visibilities.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 147 PM MST Mon Mar 3 2025
The well advertised low pressure system is starting to take shape as
dry air is pushing the stratus and fog out of the area. Starting
first will be the strong to potentially severe thunderstorm threat.
Am already starting to see some cumulus developing near the Palmer
Divide and do expect this to continue to be the trend through the
remainder of the afternoon. With the strong forcing in play do think
that some showers and/or storms will develop with potentially a low
topped supercell given very strong shear. Should this low topped
supercell occur then hail of quarter to half dollars would be
possible. The window isn`t very long for this potential from roughly
3pm-6pm MT. Should this occur Kit Carson, Yuma, western portions of
Cheyenne (KS), Sherman and Dundy counties would have the potential.
Am also watching for landspout potential along the warm front
draped across Yuma, Dundy and Cheyenne (KS). The surface
convergence zone has trended sightly back east again along with
increasing amounts of 0-3 CAPE and strong surface vorticity.
The Red Flag Warning for this afternoon remains on track with a
fairly defined dry line setting up and moving into western portions
of the area. As the dry line passes
Into tonight another arc of thunderstorms is forecast to develop a
little further to the east as the low pressure system quickly
deepens. Further to the west mainly rain a perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder will be possible as MUCAPE remains in place. The rain will
then quickly turn to snow west to east with some convective elements
in place due to MUCAPE remaining in place in the dendritic growth
zone as this will lead to very rapidly accumulating snowfall of
1-2 inch per hour rates and perhaps locally higher in spots. As
this occurs winds will gradually begin to ramp up as well
leading to blizzard conditions across eastern Colorado. The main
question is where will this area of very heavy snowfall
develop? Confidence is increasing in an eastward shift closer to
the Kansas/Colorado line and up into Dundy county towards the
Haigler area. The EFI and EFI Shift of Tails along with numerous
ensemble members are showing this along with the 15Z RAP and
18Z HRRR. Where this occurs will be looking at a substantial,
high impact and potentially crippling blizzard for those that
see the highest amounts as winds will continue to increase
throughout the day gusting 55-70 mph leading to drifts that may
be several feet deep. Significant impacts to trees and
power lines can be expected as this will a wetter snow which
may lead to power outages and downed trees not only due to the
weight of the snow but the additional stress due to the High
Winds. If traveling, be prepared now for road closures and don`t
driver around barricades as this may become a life threatening
situation if you become stranded. The potential area for these
impacts look to be across Sherman, Cheyenne (KS), Kit Carson and
Yuma counties. Have made some adjustments to the Blizzard
Warning by adding in Sherman county along with Rawlins and
Hitchcock counties due to the anticipated eastward shift. For
Rawlins and Hitchcock even if the higher snowfall amounts don`t
occur as far east blizzard conditions will still occur but with
overall lesser impacts due to lower amounts of snow although
traveling will still be treacherous given the potential for
whiteout conditions. Have changed the remainder of the Winter
Storm Watch to an Winter Weather Advisory due to the blowing
snow concerns and have expanded it further east as well as
periodic whiteout conditions will still be present given the
lack of accumulating snowfall.
As for timing, rain is forecast to transition to snow across
eastern Colorado between midnight and 3am MT with an eventual
changeover towards the stateline around sunrise. Snow will
gradually wane in intensity and coverage throughout the
afternoon before being completely out of the area after 5pm MT.
Even after snow ends, wind will still be blowing very hard still
leading to blowing and drifting snow and potentially still
blizzard conditions where the highest amounts end up at. For the
High Winds have converted the remainder of the High Wind Watch
to a High Wind Warning due to high confidence of 60 mph winds
occurring. It is appearing that due to the track of the low
locales from roughly along and north of an Oakley to Wray line
may not see continuous gusts in excess of 60 mph but the
stronger gusts may be more sporadic in nature never the less
winds will still be very strong around 50-55 mph continuously.
The potential for continuous 60-70 mph winds is favored south of
Interstate 70 where greater impacts due to the wind may occur.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MST Mon Mar 3 2025
Not much change has been seen for the extended period. Mid level
ridging still continues to remain in place on Wednesday leading to a
day of calmer conditions for the area. High temperatures in the 40s
are currently forecast but with the potential for a snow pack some
locales may need to be lowered in future forecasts. Continuing to
watch the potential for another system to move across the area late
week with increasing rain and snow chances as as well along with
breezy winds. With the current forecasted track of the low
winds do look to become breezy again gusting 30-40 mph. The
current track of the system looks to keep the better
precipitation chances across Nebraska but there is some
potential it may sag a little south as well. Will also need to
keep an eye on some fire weather potential as well as warm
temperatures will work up into the area. This combined with the
winds may lead to some near critical to critical fire concerns.
An eventual warming trend will then commence into the weekend
along with some more potential fire weather concerns during the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM MST Mon Mar 3 2025
Stratus and some fog has been pesky to exit KMCK thus far but
with drier air pushing in do think it will finally occur around
the start of this TAF period. Watching for the potential for an
arc of thunderstorms to develop as an intense low begins to
deepen so will continue the PROB30 for each terminal. This
threat looks to end but will see rain and snow chances increase
again around 12Z for KGLD and 15Z for KMCK. Winds will also
begin to increase during the this time leading to near blizzard
to blizzard conditions for each terminal throughout the day.
Winds will continue to increase gusting 45-55 knots at times.
Once the snow and blowing snow begins IFR to LIFR conditions
will be possible for each terminal through the end of this
period.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Blizzard Warning from 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ to 11 PM MST
/midnight CST/ Tuesday for KSZ001-002-013.
High Wind Warning from 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ to 11 PM MST
/midnight CST/ Tuesday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-
042.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for KSZ027-041.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ to 11 PM MST
/midnight CST/ Tuesday for KSZ003-004-014>016-027>029-041-
042.
CO...Blizzard Warning from 2 AM to 11 PM MST Tuesday for COZ090-091.
High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 11 PM MST Tuesday for
COZ090>092.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for COZ254.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM MST Tuesday for
COZ092.
NE...Blizzard Warning from 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ to 11 PM MST
/midnight CST/ Tuesday for NEZ079-080.
High Wind Warning from 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ to 11 PM MST
/midnight CST/ Tuesday for NEZ079>081.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to midnight CST
Tuesday night for NEZ081.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
619 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures continue to warm over the next few days as high
pressure moves off the Eastern Seaboard. Low pressure then moves
through the Northeast Wednesday and Thursday. Warm
temperatures, rain, and gusty winds are all expected Wednesday
into Thursday. Cooler conditions gradually return late week and
through the weekend as conditions remain unsettled.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
615 PM Update... Minor changes to reflect latest observational
trends. Satellite imagery early this evening shows some high
altitude cirrus streaming from northwest to southeast over much
of the region. These clouds may limit cooling a little but
temperatures are still expected to fall quickly through around
midnight before mid-level clouds arrive, as seen on the latest
HREF.
Previously...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather expected
Clear skies continue into the first part of tonight which
likely cause some locations to decouple and radiate early on in
the night. I blended in some cooler MOS guidance to account for
this and, with temperatures only reaching the 20s today, the
window looks to stay open long enough to drop most of the area
into the single digits area wide. Southern New Hampshire and the
immediate coast may only drop into the mid to upper teens.
Latest RAP analysis shows a 500 mb trough offshore, with visible
satellite showing clouds approaching the area from the
northwest. It is these clouds, plus the beginning of the warm
advection return flow that will help to level temperatures off
around the midnight hour. Forcing from the warm advection may
squeeze out some snow flakes in the mountains, but with minimal
low level moisture these would be very light.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Impacts and Key Messages:
* No significant weather expected
Brief ridging looks to make for a mostly sunny morning, before
the thicker clouds associated with the approaching system move
in. Continued southerly flow and a mostly sunny day should help
high temperatures climb into the low to mid-40s south of the
mountains. The mountains will be the first to see clouds and
precipitation in the form of snow showers early on the afternoon
so those locations likely top out in the mid to upper 30s.
Skies will be mostly cloudy areawide by Tuesday night. In the
mountains temperatures aloft stay cool enough to support light
snow for most of the night with accumulations only in the range
of 0.5- 1.5". Heading toward Wednesday morning warmer air begins
to move in aloft and a brief period of freezing rain may mix
in, but again with very light QPF this likely won`t be of
significance before the low levels warm as well. The Mid Coast
may also see some light plain rain showers Tuesday night ahead
of the main system, as flow turns onshore there and saturates
the column. The bulk of the system begins to move in around
sunrise Wedensday, but that will be covered in the Long Term
section. Low temperatures will range from the upper 20s north to
the low 30s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overview...
Low pressure moves through the Great Lakes and Saint Lawrence
Valley Wednesday through Thursday. A trough then lingers across
the Northeast through the weekend as high pressure gradually
noses in from the west at the surface through early next week.
Details...
Low pressure moves through the Great Lakes during the day on
Wednesday. Light showers are likely through the morning,
especially across northern areas, with some pockets of light
freezing rain across the northern valleys possible through mid
morning. The steady rain then moves in during the afternoon,
gradually expanding from west to east. The steadiest rain moves
through during the overnight hours on Wednesday, with more
scattered showers and shorter periods of rain likely through the
day on Thursday. Overall rainfall amounts generally look to be
in the 0.75-1.25 inch range, with some locally higher amounts
across the higher terrain.
The low tracks through the Saint Lawrence on Thursday, with a
cold front passing through late in the day. Much of Thursday
will be spent in the warm sector of the system, with highs
ranging from the low 40s across the north where the cold front
moves through earlier, to the mid 50s across southeast New
Hampshire where a few breaks of sunshine are possible through
the day.
With the cold deep snow pack across most of the region, the
majority of the snowpack is expected to survive the event.
Southern and coastal locations are likely to the most snowpack
loss, but also see less rainfall. The higher terrain is likely
see more rainfall, but less snowpack loss. So areal flooding is
still not expected, but river rises, ice break up, and ice jams
remain possible. With the warm temperatures on Thursday, the
possible ice movement and ice jams would most likely occur on
Thursday if they were to come to fruition.
The low continues to deepen across the Canadian Maritimes on
Friday, bringing a deepening trough across the Northeast. Gusty
winds are likely to follow the system during the day on Friday.
Weak disturbances transit through the trough through the
weekend, bringing occasional rain and snow showers, mainly to
northern locations. Relatively cooler air returns during this
timeframe, but a cool airmass is not expected as temps mostly
return to near normal into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR will prevail through Tuesday morning. HIE may
see some MVFR ceilings as some thicker clouds pass through the
mountains tonight. Tuesday afternoon is when ceilings will lower
in response to an approaching system. MVFR ceilings are likely
at HIE, with IFR visibilities possible in snow showers.
Elsewhere, ceilings and visibilities will remain VFR in rain
showers through Tuesday night. Wind gusts remain generally below
15kts with some gusts toward 20kts possible at coastal
terminals during the day Tuesday.
Long Term...IFR to LIFR conditions are likely at all terminals
Wednesday through Wednesday night with low ceilings, fog, and
periods of rain. Gradual improvement is expected on Thursday
with scattered showers, with southern terminals most likely to
return to MVFR and VFR conditions. VFR then returns Thursday
night, with MVFR ceilings more likely at HIE with upslope
conditions. Northwesterly wind gusts of around 30- 35kt are
likely on Friday, with VFR likely at most terminals, and MVFR
more likely at HIE. Mainly VFR with brief periods of MVFR
prevail through the weekend, with westerly wind gusts around
25kt on Saturday
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...High pressure moves over the waters tonight
keeping conditions somewhat tranquil. Southwesterly wind gusts
and seas then ramp up above SCA criteria during the day Tuesday
as a system approaches the area. They may then fall below SCA
criteria for a bit heading into Wednesday.
Long Term...A deepening low pressure system tracks west of the waters Wednesday
through Thursday. Southerly gales are possible with this system
Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Westerly gales are then
possible on Friday as the low deepens across Atlantic Canada. The
low then only slowly moves away through the weekend.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday
for ANZ150-152-154.
Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Baron
LONG TERM...Clair
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
722 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Partly Cloudy tonight. Chances for rain in the Wabash Valley late
overnight
- Rain Arriving on Tuesday, a few rumbles of thunder possible,
lasting through late Wednesday
- Snow may mix in Wednesday night with additional precipitation
towards the weekend
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 722 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
The mid clouds have for the moment moved off to far northeastern
parts of central Indiana allowing temperatures to drop rather
quickly despite the SSE winds at 5 to 10 knots. Thus, had to lower
temperatures several degrees the next few hours and lower early
overnight low temperatures to the middle 30s to lower 40s. After
that, more thick mid and high clouds will move in from the west,
associated with the lees Rockies cyclogenesis. This should result in
the temperatures from dropping much and perhaps even rising toward
daybreak as winds start to gradually pick up.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 338 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
Synopsis:
Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure over the
Middle Atlantic States. This feature was in control of the weather
across the east Coast. Low pressure was found over the Rockies.
These systems were resulting in a warmer, southerly flow of air
across Central Indiana with a moderate pressure gradient across the
state. Moisture return and isentropic lift were occurring, and this
was resulting in a mid level cloud deck in place across much of the
state as seen on GOES16. The upper level pattern shows strong
ridging in place over the plains states and northwest flow was in
place streaming across IL and Indiana.
Tonight -
Models for late this afternoon and early evening suggest that the
cloud deck across Indiana will drift east, leading to more partly
cloudy sky coverage as seen upstream over MO and IL for the evening
and much of the overnight hours. Forecast soundings through the
evening and early overnight period show dry column, with some
saturation arriving aloft toward 12Z. Meanwhile, the surface low
will advance to the plains overnight and begin to further influence
our weather as isentropic lift continues across the area overnight
and into Tuesday. Best moisture really is not suggested to arrive
until after 12Z. However it will be arriving close enough to the
that time for low pops needed along the Wabash. Will go without pops
or with minimal pops late across most of the forecast area. Given
the warm air advection and increasing cloud cover overnight, will
trend lows higher than the 50th percentile, which should mainly be
in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Tuesday -
Models show isentropic lift continuing through the day across
Central Indiana with the best moisture remaining in the Wabash
Valley through the day, before pushing east to most of Central
Indiana by late afternoon and Tuesday evening. The upper pattern
suggests favorable lift arriving across the area as a strong upper
low and deep trough pushes over KS and OK. Diffluent flow aloft
ahead of the low will be in place across Central Indiana, as the low
will push toward Indiana through day. Forecast soundings show best
moisture arrival late in the day, trending toward saturation after
00Z Tuesday. Pwats approach 0.75 in the afternoon and nudge over
1.00 inches after 00Z. Thus confidence for precipitation is high,
but best chances will be across the western parts of the forecast
area in the 18Z-24Z time range while the rest of the area has best
chances around 00Z Wednesday and thereafter. Thus will use highest
pops at that time. However, through the day HRRR suggests spotty
showers ahead of the main moisture area. Thus lower pops through the
day will be needed at most locations to account for these possible
light scattered showers. Again with the warm air advection pattern,
expect highs to be above the 50th percentile, in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 338 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
The focus of the long term is a sub-990mb low pressure system moving
through the region at the start of the period. The surface low
itself is expected to track through northern Indiana. While rain and
scattered thunderstorms will likely start prior to the beginning of
the long term, a bulk of the showers and storms will arrive Tuesday
night with the arrival of the front. As the system progresses, and
depending on the exact track of the low, the dry slot could arrive
early Wednesday morning bringing a break in the rain before more
rain near the center of the low arrives shortly afterwards. Lighter
rain will continue through the day Wednesday before coming to an end
Wednesday night as the low lifts to the NE. A transition to snow
will be possible as the precip ends, but at most a few tenths of
accumulation is expected at this time.
Wind will also be a focus with this deep system as gusts of 25 to 35
mph, with a few higher gusts possible at times, is expected from
before Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Outside of a few
stronger cells that could mix down some of the higher wind from the
70 kt LLJ aloft, otherwise the potential for severe weather should
stay to the SW of the forecast area.
The remainder of the period will waffle between near normal to
slightly above normal temperatures as the synoptic pattern shifts
between ridging and a few upper short waves. One of the these waves
will bring another chance of precipitation for the end of the week
that could see some snow mix in. Otherwise, quiet weather is in the
forecast for the rest of the long term.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 619 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
Impacts:
- Non-convective low level wind shear possible 04z-14z
- Winds 140-170 degrees to 15 knots with gusts to near 30 knots
after 19z Tuesday
- Rain moving in 08z-13z with brief MVFR conditions possible
at times but a better chance for MVFR and worse after 01z
Wednesday
Discussion:
Mostly mid clouds and rain will be moving in overnight into Tuesday.
Brief MVFR flying conditions will be possible as the day goes on but
better chance for deteriorating flying conditions will hold off
until Tuesday night.
Non-convective low level wind shear is possible overnight and
Tuesday morning, starting off first at KLAF.
Winds will be south less than 10 knots but then increase and
becoming gusty on Tuesday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
844 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Sfc analysis shows the inverted trough near the coast with
northeasterly flow along the coast and more easterly flow well
inland. Skies are clearing up a bit as an upper level trough
swings through the area taking most of the mid and high clouds
with it. However, low level flow will continue to veer setting up
a veering profile for the development of low level clouds, with
some stratus and stratocumulus clouds forming later tonight.
Overall, partly cloudy skies but some mostly cloudy skies may be
more prevalent along the coast. Over the marine waters, latest
HRRR model runs show little in the way of shower activity later
tonight as the coastal trough attempts to generate some showers.
Some other guidance favors scattered showers, but will keep the
isolated showers mainly confined over the coastal waters tonight,
but they may affect the coastal counties by from about 5AM Tue
morning through about 1 pm. Otherwise, will maintain a mention of
patchy fog tonight for the inland areas where a decent radiational
inversion forms late tonight. Lows expected from 45-50 for
southeast GA, to upper 40s to lower 50s for northeast FL, and mid
50s for the coastal areas.
For the marine zones, current forecast was on track. Some minor
changes that are expected are to move up the start time of the
small craft advisory for Tuesday, extending it into offshore GA
waters, and bumping up seas slightly. A gale watch may be needed
late Tuesday night, for gale force wind gusts, ahead of the next
cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 133 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
A mild night with increasing low clouds and a low (< 10%) of a
coastal shower as the coastal trough over the local Atlantic
waters morphs into a lifting warm front. Coastal cloudiness will
limit fog formation as winds transition to ESE through the night
trailing the lifting warm front. The best fog potential will be
across inland SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley where less low
level clouds are expected, but boundary layer winds and high
clouds will be increasing through the night, which favors more of
low stratus. At this time, advertised only inland patchy fog at
this time. Mild low temperatures will trend warmer than the
previous nights with lows in the mid 40s across inland SE GA to
the low/mid 50s along the Atlantic coast and much of NE FL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 133 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
Tuesday will be mild and mostly dry ahead of an incoming strong
cold front, firing up showers and storms beginning early Wednesday
morning for inland southeast Georgia. Currently, the Storm
Prediction Center has northeast Florida and southeast Georgia in a
Marginal (1/5) Risk for severe thunderstorms, with areas roughly
north of Waycross under a Slight (2/5) Risk, primary threats are
damaging wind gusts 50-70mph and isolated tornadoes. Outside and
ahead of storms, gusty southwesterly winds will be in place,
helping raise dewpoints into the 60s and high temperatures in the
mid 70s to lower 80s. By the early evening, storms should be
offshore and/or south of northeast Florida. Winds to shift
northwesterly helping drop temperatures into the 40s area-wide
overnight. To summarize, it looks like the severe threat will be
over southeast Georgia in the morning, with the threat shifting
towards north central/NE FL coast in the afternoon where the
surface has a change to heat up and destabilize.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 133 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
Thursday and Friday will be dry and a bit cooler following the
frontal passage on Wednesday. Highs Thursday will be in the 60s
area-wide, warming up to the low 70s on Friday inland, with cooler
temps near the coast. Temperatures Thursday night will be chilly,
dipping into the upper 30s for inland SE GA and portions of inland
NE FL, at this time lows are expected to remain above freezing and
there are no frost concerns. Rain chances return Saturday and
Sunday as another cold front makes its way through the area,
details on timing and impacts are still uncertain. Saturday will
be more mild with highs in the 70s to low 80s, with cooler temps
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
Multilayered clouds expected to continue tonight and into Tuesday
as a weak warm front lifts up over the area. Some isolated shower
activity expected over the coastal waters late tonight and into
Tuesday, mainly affecting SSI and possibly CRG and SGJ. Primarily
VFR cigs, but there is a chance, fairly low for most of the TAFs,
of about 20 to 30 percent of bases to about 1-2 kft, and even
some low stratus of about 500-1000 ft possible Tuesday morning.
Kept a mention of MVFR vsby for VQQ late tonight and some MVFR
possible for GNV after 08z for mist, and then possible MVFR cigs
mid morning. Rest of the TAFs again mainly VFR cigs tonight and
Tuesday but may be adjusted given that there remains a chance of
MVFR cigs for Tuesday from about 7 AM to noon. Northeasterly
winds of 5-10 kt this evening will lighten, and then by mid morning
increasing to 8-12 kt from easterly direction and then further
increases after 15z to southeasterly 15G25KT.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 133 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
Southerly winds increase tonight into Tuesday as a warm front
lifts northward over the waters with a chance of showers. Winds
and seas increase to Small Craft levels over the outer waters
Tuesday ahead of an approaching storm system. A squall line of
strong thunderstorms will cross the waters Wednesday ahead of the
cold front, with gusts to gale force possible outside of
thunderstorm activity, and a Gale Watch may be needed Tuesday
night through Wednesday. Storms move south of the waters by
Wednesday evening and the cold front moves south of the local
waters Thursday night. Small craft conditions continue through
Thursday, then winds and seas begin to relax late Thursday into
Friday as high pressure builds over the local waters from the
west. Winds begin to increase Friday night into Saturday as the
high shift south of the region and the next cold front approaches
from the west.
Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today, high rip current
risk for NE FL beaches Tuesday as SE winds increase ahead of the
approaching front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025
Dispersion will be good to high on Tuesday across northeast Florida
and southeast Georgia as southeasterly winds increase and dry
conditions will continue. Wednesday, winds will shift to
southwesterly ahead of an incoming cold front that will start
showers and storms in the early morning over southeast Georgia,
progressing southeastward throughout the day. Dispersion will be
very high on Wednesday and overnight, especially over southeast
Georgia. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday, with
gusty winds and isolated tornadoes as the primary threats. Behind
the front, winds will shift northerly and drier air will move in.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 47 74 60 76 / 0 10 30 90
SSI 54 69 61 74 / 10 20 0 100
JAX 52 74 62 79 / 10 10 0 100
SGJ 58 75 63 78 / 10 10 0 100
GNV 52 77 61 78 / 10 10 0 100
OCF 55 78 63 80 / 10 10 0 90
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ470-
472-474.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
847 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
- Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected after
midnight tonight into Tuesday. A few severe storms may
develop, with damaging wind, tornadoes, and large hail all
possible.
- Fire weather concerns will increase Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday for portions of the area as dry and windy
conditions move in behind a cold front. Wind gusts to 45 mph
may occur.
- Late Tuesday night a period of snow or rain/snow mix develops
across far northwest Arkansas. Any accumulation will be minor
and short lived.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
Latest surface analysis indicates the cold front is on the move
and is approaching the state line between the TX Panhandle and
western OK. Just to the east of the front, a northwestward surge
of near 60 dewpoints is occurring across western OK, and it will
be within the next couple hours that we should see storms firing
on the front as it slams into this moisture. With deep layer shear
fairly parallel to the front, storms should quickly congeal into
a line and march east across OK thru the night. Storms likely move
into NE OK to the north and west of Tulsa by 2 or 3 am, and will
pose an elevated severe risk, with damaging winds the main threat
along with a limited QLCS tornado threat. Storms across northern
OK will likely outpace or pinch off the narrow near surface
instability axis, so there is some uncertainty as to the level of
severe threat into NE OK. What is likely to be the most impactful
weather of the event will get going farther south down or just
ahead of the front across northern TX around 2 or 3 am. Here,
forcing for ascent will be aided by a well-defined PV max
approaching EPZ rotating around the basal portion of the larger
scale trough. For the past day or so, CAMs have indicated a
corridor of higher severe potential from north TX up into
southeast OK and the 00Z HRRR follows this, likely aided/forced by
the aforementioned PV/mid lvl jet max. These storms will likely
not make it to SE OK until around 6 am in the morning, also posing
an elevated severe wind threat and limited QLCS tornado threat,
especially close to the Red River. The 00Z HRRR suggests that
these storms will weaken by the time they reach the AR border
Tuesday morning, as they too outpace or pinch off the near surface
instability axis. PoPs and thunder probs have been updated and
text products sent.
Lacy
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 134 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
Thick low cloud cover will persist through the short term period.
Gusty southerly winds will strengthen into this evening as the next
storm system approaches. In fact, the already elevated 850 hPa winds
will strength to 60-70 kts overnight, which is quite impressive.
As a result, gusts of 30-40 mph are expected this evening through
the passage of the dry line Tuesday morning. A Wind Advisory was
considered, but held off for now given the borderline nature of
wind speeds. Temperatures will remain nearly steady overnight in
the upper 50s to low 60s with dewpoints climbing near near 60 F as
well.
In terms of the storm potential, a few storms may develop near or
just after midnight as a subtle feature lifts north into the area.
Most CAM guidance is showing this activity in far eastern OK and
northwest AR. It is not expected to become severe. In regards to the
main event, most guidance is in pretty good agreement at this point.
A line of thunderstorms will develop to the west of the area,
entering northeast OK around 9-10Z. Some of these storms will likely
become severe by the time they move into the area or shortly after.
Good instability of 1000-2000 J/Kg of MUCAPE, 50+ kts of effective
wind shear, and SRH exceeding 200 m2/s2 will potentially support all
severe hazard types. With that said, as the storms will be growing
upscale into a line, wind will probably be the dominant threat. 0-3
km shear of 40-45 kts will mostly be parallel with the line so
widespread QLCS activity is unlikely. However, if any segments can
become better oriented (more NW-SE) there is sufficient low level
shear to support QLCS tornadoes. Any semi discrete cells may also
produce low-end severe hail. The line of storms will pass through
Tulsa around 11-13Z, and through northwest AR around 14-16Z.
Total rainfall for this period will range from 0.5" to 2".
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 134 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
Conditions may quiet down for a few hours after the
front and associated convection moves through, with mild, dry,
and breezy conditions setting in. Assuming sufficient rainfall has
occurred, this should keep fire weather conditions mostly in
line, especially considering RH is not forecast to drop as low as
guidance has been indicating the last few days (now 30-40%). Even
so, some pockets of elevated fire weather potential are expected,
especially further south and west. By mid afternoon the core of
the anomalously deep trough will move squarely overhead. This will
rapidly steepen mid level lapse rates. Additional shower and
thunderstorm activity will develop, with marginally severe hail
possible in the stronger storms.
Then, during the evening, the colder air will arrive at the surface.
Due to the strong winds aloft and tight pressure gradient, wind
speeds will rapidly increase, with gusts of 40-45 mph expected
for much of the area, strongest in the north. A Wind Advisory is
in effect for the entire area from 18Z Tuesday to 18Z Wednesday.
At the same time, moisture will wrap around to the back side of
the storm. This will introduce at least a slight chance of
showers for most locations north of I-40. The coldest temperatures
and most persistent precipitation will occur in northwest AR,
where rain may change to snow for a time. Little or no
accumulation is expected, and any that does occur will melt
quickly. Precipitation will clear out by Wednesday morning, but
gusty winds will persist into Wednesday evening before
diminishing.
High pressure slides south of the area by Thursday but another
trough will already be moving into the west. This will result in
southerly flow once again, with relatively cool conditions
Wednesday moderating to well above normal temperatures by Friday.
The next cold front will move through Friday or Saturday,
bringing a return of cooler weather. Rain chances are uncertain,
with about 20-30% of guidance showing rainfall. Dry weather will
resume next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025
Currently regional surface obs show a mixture of VFR/MVFR
conditions. These conditions will gradually deteriorate through
the evening. Anticipate MVFR cigs trending to IFR and/or LIFR
ahead of an approaching convective squall line of thunderstorms
that will be moving across eastern OK and northwest AR from west
to east between 09-16Z. Latest guidance shows the Oklahoma
terminals will be impacted by the squall line between 09-14Z and
generally between 12-16Z for the Arkansas terminals. Primary
concern with the thunderstorms moving through will be damaging
wind gusts, but small hail will also be possible. Light to
moderate rain and periodic thunderstorms may linger beyond these
times. Much of the precipitation will end west to east between
16-18Z. However, wrap- around moisture, wrapping around the
departing upper level low may cause additional precipitation
during the mid-late afternoon hours, especially for the northwest
Arkansas terminals. Southerly winds are forecast to stay gusty
through much of the period, with gusts in excess of 25 knots at
times. Winds gradually turn more southwesterly or westerly mid-
late afternoon as a secondary frontal boundary pushes through the
area.
Mejia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 55 67 34 52 / 100 100 60 0
FSM 56 69 38 53 / 60 100 50 0
MLC 58 68 37 54 / 90 100 20 0
BVO 53 66 32 51 / 100 100 60 0
FYV 54 66 32 48 / 60 100 70 0
BYV 54 62 33 44 / 40 100 80 0
MKO 56 66 35 51 / 90 100 50 0
MIO 55 64 32 46 / 70 100 90 0
F10 56 65 35 52 / 100 100 30 0
HHW 58 66 38 55 / 80 100 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday for OKZ049-
053>076.
AR...Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday for ARZ001-
002-010-011-019-020-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...67