Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/03/25

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Bismarck ND

 848 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures again Monday before a midweek
  cooldown (highs in the 30s).

- Medium to high chances (40 to 80 percent) for rain and snow
  Monday night through Tuesday. Medium to high chances (50 to 80
  percent) for at least an inch of snow northwest and portions
  of the north central.

- Another warmup is then forecast to start at the very end of
  the week and last through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

Other than a few sporadic high clouds, clear skies and calm
conditions persist across the forecast area. Dewpoint
depressions have been significantly narrowing in the north,
although fog has not yet been observed in the CWA. However,
satellite imagery suggests fog is likely developing in parts of
southeastern Saskatchewan. As such, patchy fog development into
northwestern and north central ND remains favored this evening
and through the night.

UPDATE
Issued at 544 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

The forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

A beautiful Sunday afternoon continues across the northern
Plains with plenty of sunshine and only a few patches of wispy
high clouds. Temperatures have warmed quickly as snowpack is
almost completely gone for most locations. Areas across the
southwest have seen temperatures in the 50s with some sites
even in the lower 60s. Elsewhere, temperatures are mainly in
the 40s. We should have the potential to warm even more over the
next few hours.

An upper level ridge axis will approach the Montana/North Dakota
border tonight and deamplify as it crosses the state on Monday
morning. Light winds, patchy warm air advection, and a clear sky
may lead to some fog overnight. Several of the latest CAMs are
targeting the north for fog formation so a time-lagged RAP was
used as a first guess in the gridded forecast and kept mention
of it as patchy for now. Later in the day, expect one more
afternoon of above average high temperatures for most. A cold
front will enter the northwest early Monday and move southeast
across the state through the day. Thus, highs across the far
north may only be in the 30s on Monday behind the front, but
central and southern portions of the state will see one more day
of readings in the 40s and 50s.

Attention then turns to our next chance for precipitation
Monday night through Tuesday. As advertised the past few days, a
split flow regime is still favored to develop over western and
central North Dakota: a Colorado low will kick out into the
southern/central Plains well to our south and an open northern
stream wave will approach our doorstep from Montana and Canada.
With some influence from both of these systems, medium to high
precipitation chances (40 to 80 percent) will spread across most
of western and central North Dakota Monday night, tapering off
to the southeast late on Tuesday. The best chances will be
across the northwest and southeast.

Precipitation will start out as rain for most, changing to snow
from northwest to southeast. The northwest will see mainly snow
and the southeast will see mainly rain. The trend since
yesterday`s forecast package has been for the southern low to
trend even further south and for the northern stream wave to be
a touch stronger. Thus, NBM probabilities are now suggesting
some medium to high chances (50 to 80 percent) for an inch of
snow or greater across the northwest and into portions of the
north central. When the threshold is increased to two inches,
probabilities max out in the 20 to 40 percent range near the
Canadian border. An inch or two certainly seems possible across
the northwest and portions of the north central with lesser
amounts elsewhere. Some scattered snow showers may linger
through the day on Tuesday given the cyclonic flow aloft, but
most of the activity should be on the downward trend.

On a final note about Tuesday, we will see some modest pressure
rises and cold air advection moving into the region which could
make the day rather windy, especially across the south central
and southeast. Depending on how the forecast evolves, a wind
headline could eventually be needed for the James River Valley
and vicinity.

Our region will settle back into mean northwest flow aloft
through the rest of the week and weekend, promoting dry weather
and another warmup after the midweek cooldown. Highs Tuesday
through Thursday will mainly be in the 30s. The warmup then
commences on Friday and into the weekend when widespread highs
in the 40s and 50s are forecast to return.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

VFR ceilings are present across the state and expected through
the period for most locations with two main exceptions. First,
patchy fog is possible in northwestern and north central parts
of the state tonight. KMOT is the most likely terminal to be
impacted by this, but KXWA may see reduced visibility from fog
as well. Second, as the fog clears, MVFR/IFR ceilings may
persist over parts of the far northwest. Low level stratus may
then begin expanding further south and east Monday afternoon as
a winter weather system approaches.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...Telken




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

 842 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter storm to bring heavy snowfall and very windy conditions
  to the Front Range Mountains and eastern plains Monday night and
  Tuesday.

- Significant travel impacts possible across the North Central
  Mountains starting Monday afternoon and across the eastern
  plains late Monday night and Tuesday due to snow and strong
  winds.

- The next storm system is expected late Thursday and Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

Another quiet evening across the forecast area to end the weekend.
Satellite shows mid/high cloud cover across most of the high
country, which should spread into the plains overnight. Outside
some changes in cloud cover, little other weather of note is
expected through tomorrow morning, and only some minor grid edits
were made in this period.

We continue to watch trends in the early 00z guidance.
Unfortunately, we still appear to be pretty far from a consensus
at this point. The ECMWF and it`s ensemble continue to trend
drier/further southeast with the axis of heaviest QPF, while some
00z CAMs are much more bullish with snow potential across the
Palmer Divide and eastern plains. We will hope for better
agreement overnight, but these rapidly deepening storms often come
with a few day-of surprises.

There is better agreement about widespread wind across the plains
Tuesday. With 700mb winds of 50-70kt in a cold air advection
regime we should see pretty widespread gusts of 50-60 mph. Like
the day shift, I did contemplate some High Wind Watches, but
decided to wait and let the night shift take a closer look and try
to capture all of our highlight updates at one time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Monday/...
Issued at 304 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

Quiet day today ahead of the incoming storm. We`re starting to see
some cloud development over the mountains, but that will probably
fade this evening before we see more significant moisture moving
into the mountains later tonight. A little wind will persist in
most areas, though the low lying cold spots could still cool off
pretty well. Forecast lows look pretty good, though we could see
the coldest spots drop to around 20 on the plains (Limon, between
Greeley/Fort Morgan) with a few single digits in places like
Fraser. Some low clouds are likely near the eastern border.

On Monday clouds will increase over the northern mountains in the
morning, then sag southward with showers breaking out in the
north. Models vary in the intensity of the showers, with some of
the more aggressive small scale models producing over half an inch
of QPF in Larimer county. We trimmed this back a bit, but the
scenario of foothills convection breaking out by mid to late
afternoon seems reasonable. It should be too warm for snow below
6,000 feet until evening, with the possible exception of the
Cheyenne Ridge area. Starting the Front Range Winter Storm Warning
at 3 PM looks about right. We added a Winter Weather Advisory for
the Rabbit Ears Pass area starting at 11 AM, as snowfall will be
earlier and lighter there but still probably impactful with the
snow/wind combination. Forecast temperatures look good for Monday,
with temperatures dropping from the low 60s into the 40s in the
afternoon from Denver northward.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 304 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

Monday night and Tuesday a potent spring storm system is expected to
impact portions of North Central and Northeastern Colorado. The
majority of the models are showing a closed 500 MB low tracking from
Southeastern CO. Monday evening into Western Kansas by Tuesday
morning. The storm will first impact the Northern Mountains during
the afternoon hours as ample QG lift, moisture and instability
combines with cold air advection and favorable northwesterly
orographic flow. Many of the models are focusing on the heaviest
snow from Rocky Mountain National Park northwest across the
Medicine Bow Range from mid afternoon through early morning
Tuesday with snowfall rates between 1 and 2 inches per hour
possible. These areas could see total snowfall amounts between 8
and 18 inches with lighter amounts across the remainder of the
high country. The heavy snow combined with strong winds gusting to
60 mph will lead to difficult and dangerous travel.

Now focusing further east across the plains, a strong pressure
gradient on the back side of low will produce strong northerly
winds (45 mph to 65 mph) across portions of the Northeastern
Plains Monday night and Tuesday. Further west, lighter
northwesterly winds are expected across the Front Range Urban
Corridor due to a downsloping flow. This type of scenario is a
favorable environment to produce a deformation zone on the back
side of the low with a heavy band of snow associated with it. At
this time, it`s difficult to know the exact location and
progression of the heavier band. However, confidence is highest
that the heavier snow, blizzard conditions and difficult travel
impacts will be from the Palmer Divide east and northeast into
Northern Lincoln and Southern Washington Counties.

Further north across the plains, there is still quite a bit of
uncertainty in snowfall amounts and travel impacts due to model
differences and a later change over from rain to snow. The model
ensembles are showing 1-2" of accumulation from this system,
while some of the deterministic solutions are showing up to 9
inches across our far northeastern Counties. Further west, the
downsloping flow may lead to little or no accumulation across the
northern Front Range Urban Corridor and adjacent plains. However,
the 18Z HRRR which is somewhat stronger and further north with the
upper low, brings the deformation zone further to the west. This
solution is suggesting 5- 10" of snow from Metro Denver into
Southwest Weld County and 6-12" across Northeastern Weld County.
This is the outlier, but not out of the realm of possibility;
especially, since it is March. This storm bears watching as minor
changes in the storm track could have a significant effect in
snowfall totals as well as travel impacts. Stay tuned.

Dry and warmer weather along with lighter winds are expected on
Wednesday as upper level high pressure rebuilds over the Rocky
Mountain Region.

A return to unsettled weather is expected on Thursday into Friday as
the next storm system moves across the forecast area. The mountains
should see another round of snow with this system with some rain and
snow possible across the lower elevations.

Dry and warmer weather is expected by next weekend as upper level
high pressure rebuilds over the state.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 434 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

VFR through tomorrow afternoon. Winds are very light at DEN/BJC
this afternoon, but should eventually turn towards a more typical
drainage flow.

There is more uncertainty in the wind forecast tomorrow, as a
storm system develops and a cold front drops into the region.
Winds should turn to some sort of north or northeast component,
then gradually back to the NW as we get towards 00z Tuesday.
Ceilings should also lower by the late afternoon with a return of
MVFR or lower cigs likely Monday night.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday
for COZ031.

Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon for COZ033-034.

Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
for COZ041-045>047-049.

Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
afternoon for COZ042-048-050-051.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Monday for COZ247.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hiris
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Hiris




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Cheyenne WY

 439 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter storm looking more likely Monday and Tuesday with
  accumulating snow and very windy conditions possible. A Winter
  Storm Watch is in effect for mainly the Interstate 80 corridor
  from the Snowy Range eastward to the southern Nebraska
  panhandle.

- Additional snowfall expected across all of southeast Wyoming
  and western Nebraska late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 217 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

A pattern change on Monday will lead to drastically different
weather conditions compared to the last few days. While the
weekend featured warm and dry conditions, Monday and Tuesday
will see the return of precipitation and cooler temperatures. A
potent upper-level trough will begin to push into the Rockies on
Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a closed upper-level low
with this system, indicative of a stronger and more organized
system. Mild temperatures will likely hang on during the day
Monday as cooler air aloft gradually infiltrates the CWA. Mid-
level moisture will also increase throughout the day as the
trough pushes eastward. Lift from this system, as well as decent
frontogenesis along the Interstate 80 corridor will likely lead
to the development of showers Monday afternoon. Model soundings
from the GFS also show instability along the Interstate 80
corridor. It is possible that this could lead to a few rumbles
of thunder, mainly in the Nebraska panhandle where CAPE values
are highest. Given the warm surface temperatures, showers will
start off as rain but likely transitions to snow and become
more stratiform during the evening hours.

Both GFS and ECMWF deterministic models show surface cyclogenesis
occurring in eastern Colorado Monday afternoon. While the
overall tracks of these models are relatively the same, initial
positioning of the surface low will likely impact snowfall
amounts. GEFS members show the surface low in east-central
Colorado while the ECMWF ensemble shows most members in
southeast Colorado. Both models track the surface low into
southern Kansas, however, the initial surface placement of the
GFS/GEFS will likely lead to higher snowfall totals for the CWA.

Snowfall forecast still remains uncertain at this time. While there
is fairly high confidence in the location of highest snowfall
totals, amounts still remain highly variable from model to model.
The highest snowfall totals will likely be along the Interstate 80
corridor from Laramie to Cheyenne, but south of the North Platte
River Valley. As the system tracks further east, areas west of the
Laramie Range will get into good north to northwest flow. This
direction is favorable for upslope in the Arlington zone as well as
Laramie. Decided to add both of these zones to the Winter Storm
Watch as a prolonged period of upslope flow as suggested by models
will be favorable for snow. Heading further east, snowfall amounts
become even trickier as they will likely be heavily influenced by
the placement of the surface low and when rain transitions to snow.
As the surface low tracks eastward and strengthens, ample moisture
from the Gulf will wrap around the backside of the low. The GFS, NBM
and even some Hi-Res guidance show pretty good QPF amounts with the
wrap around moisture. Northerly flow will provide good upslope
flow to enhance snowfall along the Cheyenne Ridge. Models also
show pretty good mid-level frontogenesis over the southern
Nebraska panhandle Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Models
also show a fairly saturated column below 400 mb between
Cheyenne and Sidney. Given these variables, moderate to heavy
snow could be possible Monday night. Snow is progged to taper
off Tuesday afternoon as the low pushes into eastern Kansas.
Winter Storm Watch areas east of the Laramie Range could see
snowfall totals between 3 and 7 inches. However, locally higher
amounts could be possible depending on where banded snow occurs
or if the positioning of the surface low changes. Hi-Res
guidance like the HRRR is rather aggressive with snowfall
amounts while synoptic models look a bit more conservative.
Ensemble guidance fall somewhere in the middle, with some
ensemble members showing the potential for Winter Storm Warning
criteria. Now that this system has begun to move onshore of the
west coast, observations will hopefully improve model certainty
with this system so that snowfall totals can be better ironed
out.

The other concern with this system will be strong winds. Very strong
winds are expected on the backside of this low thanks to a steep
MSLP gradient. Low-level winds could be as strong as 50 kts by late
Monday night. The strongest winds will likely be Tuesday morning
when downward omegas also look to be at their peak. This could lead
to the potential for high winds. The area most likely affected
by high winds will be along the Interstate 80 corridor between
Cheyenne and Sidney. This, of course, also leads to the concern
for blowing and drifting snow. Depending on snowfall amounts,
blowing snow could severely impact visibility. Luckily, there is
more time to get a few more model runs in before wind impacts
the forecast area. Because this system is not overly cold, a
heavier, wet snow could be possible which could limit some
blowing and drifting.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

A brief ridge with setup overhead on Wednesday as the system
responsible for the early-week snow moves out of the area.
Temperatures will warm under this ridge, though the exact extent of
warming will be heavily dependent on the locations that receive a
decent snowpack Monday into Tuesday. Went ahead and decreased
temperatures along I-80 from the Summit eastward to Cheyenne County
where there are the best chances for a decent snowpack.

Attention then turns to the second system this week as a strong,
upper-level trough slowly pushes onshore into the west coast. This
trough will slowly tilt into a more positive tilt orientation as it
moves further inland by Thursday evening. The trough will slowly
move overhead and will not begin to clear out of the region until
Saturday afternoon, leading to a longer period of time with better
forcing aloft. Strong 500mb cyclonic vorticity advection will be
present along the eastern flank of the trough, with multiple lobes
of vorticity moving overhead behind the leading edge. Unlike the
system earlier this week, this system is expected to be more of an
open wave, rather than closed low, which changes impacts some. With
an open wave pattern, the system should move through quicker and
reduce the total amount of accumulation expected with the system.
However, the open waves also enables disturbances to eject out ahead
of the main system and cause a longer duration of snowfall and
accumulation. Additionally, the GFS suggests a plume of moisture
becoming wrapped in this system and increases the overall moisture
of the system as a whole. The ECMWF is generally in agreement with
this as well, but appears to have even more moisture wrapped into
this system than the GFS. Southwesterly flow develops at 700mb ahead
of the system, favoring an earlier start time for snow accumulation
in the Sierra Madres and Snowies as moist, upslope flow develops
Thursday afternoon. The 700mb is slightly more difficult to pick
out, as a closed low exists just west of Wyoming Thursday afternoon,
but is interrupted as it moves over the higher terrain of western
and central Wyoming before re-developing into a closed low over
central Nebraska. Additionally, the ECMWF and GFS have different
placements of this low, with the GFS keeping it over west central
Nebraska and the ECMWF pushes it further east of southeastern
Nebraska. Similarly, at the surface the GFS suggests the development
of a surface low over central Colorado in a favorable location for
the CWA to receive some decent snow. The ECMWF is different in that
it suggests the low will develop over far southeastern Colorado into
far southwestern Kansas Thursday evening. The ECMWF is also much
stronger the the GFS, with a 989mb surface low at 00Z Friday
compared to the 993mb surface low in the GFS. Both long range models
suggest a decent amount of snow for the region, but the ECMWF
suggests more than the GFS, likely due to the stronger surface low
and maybe slightly better placement to get ample moisture being
drawn up from the Gulf. Both the ECMWF and GFS keep snow in the area
until late Friday night into early Saturday morning as the system
moves off to the east. Ample moist isentropic upglide is expected to
be present across much of the CWA combined with the development of a
weak TROWAL and strong frontogenesis near the surface, further
increasing confidence on impactful snow accumulation with this
system. Winds should be calmer with this system than the early week
system, but the potential for greater snowfall totals is present due
to the longer duration of snow ahead of, during, and after the
system moves out of the area.

Exact snow totals at this time are hard to discern, but the NAEFS
mean precipitable water is in the 90th percentile 12Z Thursday
through 00Z Friday, when the bulk of the forcing is present.
Additionally, 90th percentile Mean Integrated Water Vapor Transport
is present ahead of and during the system, suggesting strong
moisture advection into the region, favoring more snow accumulation.
With all the best ascent being colocated in both time and space,
impactful to significant snowfall is becoming more likely with this
winter storm. Exact amounts will continue to be worked on as
confidence grows and long range models come into better agreement on
storm position. The ensembles of the GFS and ECMWF all suggest
decent snow accumulation, despite the deterministic appearing likely
too low on storm total accumulation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 437 PM MST Sun Mar 2 2025

VFR conditions and generally light but occasionally variable winds
into Monday morning. However, a powerful storm system
approaching will begin to cause problems towards the end of the
TAF period. Expect gradually decreasing CIGs through the day
along with increasing winds. Rain and snow showers will develop
mid afternoon, which are captured with PROB30 groups at this
time. In addition, a few rumbles of thunder could be observed
near KSNY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     afternoon for WYZ116>119.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning
     for WYZ110.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening
     for WYZ112-114.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     morning for WYZ115.
NE...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     afternoon for NEZ020-054.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for NEZ055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...MN




Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation

National Weather Service Lincoln IL

 507 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong storm system will bring a 50-70% chance for wind gusts
  over 45 mph on Wednesday. This would result in difficult travel
  conditions for high profile vehicles.

- The same system will bring widespread rain and a few thunderstorms
  on Tuesday. The potential for severe weather is low (less than
  5%).

- Wednesday, rain may briefly change over to snow. While little
  accumulation is expected (less than a 15% chance for more than
  1"), heavier snow showers could combine with strong winds
  Wednesday afternoon to cause brief visibility reductions.

- There is a 40-50% chance for precipitation Friday into Saturday.
  This will most likely fall as rain, but there is a small
  (15-25%) chance for snow mainly north of a Beardstown to Paxton
  line.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

Under the influence of subsidence in the eastern periphery of a high
pressure ridge expanding into the region from the Great Plains,
mostly clear skies and light winds have fostered radiational warming
and brought our temperatures into the low to mid 40s - still a
little below normal for early March, but certainly less
uncomfortable than yesterday. A weak shortwave will bring increased
cloud cover overnight tonight, but, given the dry low level airmass
in place evident by the PW of 0.10" on our 12z raob and current
surface dewpoints in the single digits, thinking is that precip will
have a hard time reaching the ground. Given morning temps slated to
drop into the upper 20s to low 30s, any precip that manages to eat
its way through that dry layer could freeze, mainly on elevated
surfaces; however, the chance for such freezing rain is only
around 10%.

If we get the afternoon breaks in cloud cover advertised by the
HREF, temperatures tomorrow will warm into the 50s as the ridge
expands into the Midwest and low level southerly flow strengthens.
Our 562+ decameter (LREF mean) 500mb heights will be cut short,
though, by a strong incoming trough which will bring the area rain,
a couple thunderstorms, and stiff south winds on Tuesday. The
surface low associated with this system will undergo rapid
cyclogenesis in the Great Plains under the left exit region of the
upper jet where differential cyclonic vorticity advection is
maximized, but by the time it approaches central IL Tuesday night
into Wednesday it will be occluding/occluded. This suggests the
stronger surge of surface Gulf moisture resulting in 60+ degF
dewpoints will be confined to the Southern Plains and Deep South,
limiting instability and hence severe potential for us despite the
strong kinematic profiles. Nonetheless, we could certainly have a
rumble of thunder mid Tuesday morning into the early-mid afternoon
(highest chances would be west) on the nose of the LLJ and where
the RAP depicts 700-500mb lapse rates > 7 degC/km. Another
opportunity might be with the occluded front Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, but with only a couple hundred J/kg of (elevated)
MUCAPE it`s not looking particularly likely.

As far as flooding potential goes, it seems pretty low given 6h FFG
is 2.5-2.75" for which NBM has less than 10% chances for any part of
the CWA. Still, we`ll have to keep an eye on this, as the
probabilities have come up a smidgen across our northwest where
frontogenetic forcing behind the low will be maximized... and
often the global models don`t resolve meso- and smaller- scale
processes driving higher end precip potential particularly well.
The CAMs will start to cover much/most of the precip associated
with this event tonight into tomorrow, giving us a better idea of
what we can expect.

The greatest concern with this system will be the potential for
strong winds. While global models have backed off a tiny bit on the
depth of this low, the LREF maintains 50-70% chances for MSLP less
than 985mb, highest across our west. The tight gradient associated
with this low will result in a strong wind field leading to two
opportunities for strong surface gusts: the first is late Tuesday
when 850mb winds reach 60-70 kt (highest across our east) with the
LLJ, and the second is on Wednesday in close proximity to the
departing surface low. Forecast soundings would certainly suggest
the better potential is on Wednesday, when BUFKIT mixing techniques
suggest gusts will max out anywhere between 40 and 50+ kt - highest
across the west. NBM continues to indicate a 50-70% chance for wind
gusts reaching advisory criteria (45 mph) and 10-15% chance for
hitting warning criteria (58 mph). (Based on forecast soundings
and past experience with cold advection regimes resulting in winds
verifying on the high end of ensemble guidance, we wouldn`t be
surprised if these probabilities come up.) For reference, Wind
Advisory conditions typically result in few, if any, impacts
mainly in the way of difficult driving conditions for high profile
vehicles, while High Wind Warning conditions often result in some
tree damage and isolated power outages.

Right behind the low, 850mb temps sharply drop into the -8 to -10
degC range if you believe the global deterministic models, and lapse
rates become steep right up into the DGZ, which could result in a
few rain/snow showers which, combined with the gusty winds, could
cause visibility reductions. However, the chance for accumulations
more than 1 inch is low; LREF Grand Ensemble (GE) only gives
around a 5-15% chance.

Another wave is expected to move west to east from the Central
Plains, through the Ohio Valley, and into the Mid-Atlantic Region
between Thursday night and Saturday, giving us another shot at
precip Friday into Friday night. Precip along the baroclinic zone
would most likely fall as liquid (i.e., rain) for most/all of our
area, though it`ll ultimately depend on the strength (dictates
WAA) and precise track of the surface low, which according to the
LREF GE could be anywhere from KY to northern IL. For what it`s
worth, NBM probabilities for measurable snow run from less than 5%
south of I-70 to roughly 30% in Galesburg.

Bumgardner

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 507 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

VFR conditions to prevail through the period, with ceilings
lowering to around 7000 feet by daybreak and lasting into midday
Monday. Light and variable winds in the evening will trend more
southerly overnight and gradually increase, and will mainly be
10-15 knots most of the daytime hours Monday. Gusts 20-25 knots
are expected to develop by mid morning and persist through the
afternoon.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service North Platte NE

 557 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible across southwestern Nebraska Monday
  morning.

- Dangerous and potentially life threatening travel is expected
  early Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Northerly winds
  30 to 40 mph with gusts over 60 mph possible combined with
  falling snow may cause blizzard conditions to develop across
  much of western and north central Nebraska.

- Another round of snow is expected Thursday into Friday. Timing
  and exact amounts remain uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

Tonight, a deep upper trough will move into the Great Basin
with a closed low to move into western Utah by daybreak.
Southerly winds overnight will bring an increase in low level
moisture and dewpoints rising into the upper 30s to near 40.
Stratus will move into southwest and central late tonight, with
fog possible toward daybreak across southwest Nebraska as
indicated by the latest HRRR and RAP13. Lows tonight not as cold
from the low 30s west to the upper 30s southwest and east.

On Monday, surface low pressure will deepen significantly by
late afternoon across east central Colorado to near 986mb as a
closed low moves into southern Colorado. Diffluent flow aloft
downstream across Nebraska will bring cloudy skies and moisture
advection. Morning fog across southwestern Nebraska should lift
by midday. With stratus expected over much of the area, highs
will be limited to the mid to upper 50s as dewpoints climb into
the low to mid 40s. a chance for light rain by late afternoon
across the southeast panhandle and far southwest.

Monday night, an elongated, north south oriented upper low will
move into western Kansas overnight. Surface low pressure will
drop southeastward into west central Kansas and may remain as
deep as 986mb as forecast by the GFS. Convergence at the
surface and aloft will increase on the northwestern periphery of
the closed low across northeast Colorado and western Nebraska.
Showers and a few thunderstorms with likely to categorical POPs
across the western two thirds of the area. Winds will back to
the northeast and north and become windy across the western
Sandhills late. Temperatures near the surface and aloft cool
sufficiently for light snow accumulations up to an inch across
the northwest Sandhills toward daybreak.

Tuesday, as the closed low moves across Kansas, very strong
northerly winds will impact western and north central Nebraska.
Sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph are
possible. Categorical POPs through the day, with a rain snow
line to move east through the day. Uncertainty still exists on
the location and how soon the rain changes over to snow. Cold
air advection drop south and east quickly during the morning,
with the rain/snow line expected to reach a North Platte through
Ainsworth line by mid morning. The GFS and ECMWF each develop a
strong deformation band, with the GFS further wet with the
location. Uncertainty remains where this deformation develops.
NBM probabilities of greater than 3 inches has increase to 25 to
45 percent for areas mainly west of Highway 83. The northerly
wind gusts, combined with falling snow would likely lead to
whiteout conditions and blizzard conditions possible. SLRs do
look to remain rather low during the morning, (6-9:1) suggesting
a heavy, wet snow. This threat persists into Tuesday evening,
before the system begins to quickly pull away from the area
Tuesday night. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from early
Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

Shortwave ridging quickly translates across the area Wednesday.
An upper trough again looks to eject into the Plains Thursday
into Friday with a chance for snow or rain/snow. The ECMWF
continues to bring an early timing from Thursday afternoon into
Friday morning, while the GFS is late Thursday night through
Friday. Confidence is low with this system, though at least a
50 to 60 percent chance of precipitation does look to exist
across much of the area. Colder air will also linger Wednesday
through Friday with high in the mid 30s to low 40s. Saturday
and Sunday looks dry and warmer as upper ridging return to the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

As low-level moisture works northward tonight low ceilings will
spread into southwest and central Nebraska. IFR with possible
fog will impact this area from around sunrise through noontime
Monday. Ceilings will likely lift some Monday afternoon. South
to southeast winds at 5-15 kts are expected through the period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through late Tuesday
night for NEZ004-022>024-035-036-056>058-069-094.
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
night for NEZ005>010-025>029-037-038-059-070-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Taylor




Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation

National Weather Service Saint Louis MO

 955 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong low pressure system will bring widespread rain up to 1.00
  inches, along with a few thunderstorms, on Tuesday.

- A conditional threat for severe thunderstorms exists Tuesday, particularly
  south of the I-70 (MO)/I-64 (IL) corridor. While the
  probability for severe weather is low (30% or less), if they can
  develop there would be a threat for locally-significant
  impacts.

- Behind this system, strong winds with gusts potentially up to
  50mph are forecast on Wednesday. Particular concern exists in
  northern Missouri and west-central Illinois.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

Surface high pressure kept winds light out of the southeast
generally today, but is gradually drifting east into the Ohio
River Valley and placing the region in warmer, southerly return
flow. Aloft, mid-level water vapor imagery shows a closed
shortwave tracking through the southern Plains amidst more
amplified ridging. This wave is forcing a small area of convection
in western Oklahoma at this hour, and while it will approach the
Mid-Mississippi Valley, its trajectory will cause it to miss us
and keep any associated impacts across the southern Ozark Plateau
at the worst. Latest CAMs do show a weak ripple in the mid-level
flow that would occur near the nose of a low-level jet overnight
across Iowa. With this feature becoming more prominent in the
available guidance, 15-20% PoPs were added across far northeast
Missouri and west-central Illinois to account for the chance for
light rain tonight.

A stronger, more amplified upper-level wave will track over the
Rockies tonight, with strong diffluent flow and impressive jet-level
dynamics on its leading edge. This strong forcing will quickly
trigger surface cyclogenesis on the Front Range, tightening the
surface pressure gradient across the central CONUS. Temperatures
tonight will be 10-15 degrees warmer than last night amidst the
slightly stronger southerly winds and weaker radiative cooling
effects. A seasonably warm day is on tap for the start to the work
week, with gusts gradually strengthening to 20-25mph during the
afternoon as the surface low in the west deepens.

The upper level ridge axis passes to our east by the late afternoon,
placing the region in the strong diffluence mentioned earlier by
midnight Tuesday. With this lift and waves of PVA adding additional
forcing, a plume of stronger mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE
ranging from 500-1000 J/kg will advect into the region. Amidst 50-
60kts of deep-layer shear, this environment poses a threat for at
least isolated strong to marginally-severe thunderstorms from 3
AM to shortly after sunrise Tuesday. With very meager boundary
layer instability or moisture, the dominant threat would be large
hail. That said, if the strength of this initial lift is
overestimated, little to no convection will occur overnight. As
such, PoPs are limited to as high as 40% (particularly in northern
Missouri and west-central Illinois, where the favorable
environment maximizes).

MRB

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

By later Tuesday morning, most deterministic guidance paints strong
moist isentropic ascent in advance of the rapidly-deepening surface
low, which will be tracking into the central Plains by then. The
cyclone will be drawing low-level moisture poleward from the Gulf in
a seemingly-narrow corridor directly along and ahead of what appears
to be an occluded front. Aloft, a closed low is uniformly modeled in
the deterministic and ensemble envelope, further solidifying the
likelihood that the surface low would be occluded at this point. The
impressive forcing and lift, coupled with anomalous integrated water
vapor transport, will lead to widespread showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms through the day on Tuesday. Sustained gradient winds
will strengthen to the 25-30mph range, with gusts approaching 40mph
(especially where stronger showers or thunderstorms can mix winds
down aloft).

Everyone in the region has a 90-100% chance of seeing at least some
rain Tuesday, with two maxima in the totals still evident. The first
is across northern Missouri and west-central Illinois, where the
more impressive forcing and ascent will be. The second is over
southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois, where forcing may be
slightly weaker but compensated for by more appreciable moisture.
There is high likelihood (80-90%) of at least 0.50 inches of rain in
these two areas, with a reasonable worst-case scenario of 1.00
inches for some. With the relatively lower rain totals, lower than
previously forecast, and quick-moving synoptic system, flooding
impacts beyond isolated, nuisance ponding are not forecast.

On the subject of the severe weather potential during the afternoon
and evening - the overall potential in the immediate region is
largely the same as it was from the last forecast. The biggest
limiting factor is the northern extent of the low-level
moisture/instability. With abundant cloud cover and ongoing
stratiform rain through the day in the warm sector, it will be
fairly difficult to develop any instability. Further still, if the
cyclone is occluded, the warm sector will be further removed to our
south and low level instability will be at a premium. All of that
being said, the basic components of severe thunderstorms (shear,
lift, instability, moisture) are compensatory - even marginal
instability and moisture in this impressive kinematic parameter
space could yield severe thunderstorms featuring all hazards. The
best potential for this would be south of I-70 in Missouri and
I-64 in Illinois during the afternoon and early evening, where the
RAP and a few other deterministic sources have a narrow plume of
500 J/kg of MLCAPE that is weakly capped.

Winds on the warm side of the cyclone will not be overly impressive
despite the tightening surface pressure gradient, but that changes
when they system rapidly departs Wednesday. The synoptic setup
almost mirrors our local strong wind climatology developed at Saint
Louis University - a deepening surface low tracking northeast into
the Great Lakes with strong cold air advection and low 2 PVU
heights. The ensemble envelope also highlights the region for
potentially seeing record-low MSLP and record-high 850mb winds
(compared with model climatology) on Wednesday, particularly in
northern Missouri and west-central Illinois. Current wind speeds and
gusts exceed Wind Advisory criteria, and if the expected pattern
evolution remains largely unchanged, an Advisory or perhaps our
first High Wind Warning since March 31, 2023 will be needed.

Winds slacken off by early Thursday morning with surface high
pressure quickly building in from the west. The seasonably-cool
temperatures we`ll see Wednesday (mid-40s to low 50s) will begin to
rebound by then. While several other mid-level waves are evident in
the ensemble guidance Friday into Saturday that would bring at least
some threat for rain to the region, none suggest anything as
kinematically impressive or organized as the mid-week system.

MRB

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 954 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

Dry and VFR conditions will continue. Winds will continue from the
southeast, picking up in strength tomorrow morning and gusting
into the upper teens to low 20s.

Delia

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

 910 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 908 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

 - Patchy fog possible tonight ahead of another windy and dusty
   Monday.

 - Critical fire weather conditions are forecast to develop
   Monday, and a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for the
   entire South Plains area.

 - Strong winds are forecast to affect the entire region Monday
   and Tuesday, resulting in areas of blowing dust and another
   bout of fire weather conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

Patchy fog before midnight based on current trends observed
across the extreme southeast Texas Panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 126 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

After yesterday`s quiet opening to March, today was unfortunately
more typical for March in West TX as the region contends with strong
winds, blowing dust, a sharp dryline, deep convection, and even
critical fire weather. The 1 PM surface map featured a surface low
just east of Hereford with a warm front draped ESE to Childress, a
dryline arcing south to Plainview, Spur and Rotan, and a cold front
from Friona to Morton ahead of a 15-25 degree jump in dewpoints. A
dryline bulge around White River Lake was likely responsible for the
nearby surprise convective initiation just before noon. This
convection and additional storms farther south near Rotan bear watch
in the coming hours as they interact with improving SBCAPE of 500-
1000 J/kg and backed surface flow along the warm front farther north
where a brief tornado is possible given favorable 0-1 km shear (30-
35 knots) and 0-1 km SRHs around 200. CAMs have greatly underdone
this activity, yet we expect these storms to exit our eastern zones
by 3-4 PM.

One bit of good news is that the blowing dust and critical fire
weather should taper from W-E in the coming hours as the cold front
and higher RHs on lighter WNW winds spreads southeast. As the
surface low departs along the Red River this evening, richer
wraparound moisture is progged to spill SSW over much of the
forecast area overnight complete with stratus and fog for our N-NE
zones. Latest HRRR runs have been more bullish with this fog making
it into Lubbock, but this is not supported well by ensembles yet so
have opted to exclude this for now. This shallow moist layer will
wash out on Monday morning as winds veer SW in response to a
sharpening lee trough downstream of a vigorous upper low moving over
the Four Corners by late afternoon. Even with the distance between
us and the low, wind fields ramp up through the day with advisory
level winds appearing likely for areas near the TX-NM border along
with patchy blowing dust over much of the Caprock. Models and
ensembles are still at odds with the intensity of a H7 wind max from
the TX Panhandle southwest to El Paso, so confidence in high winds
for our western counties is too low to justify a High Wind Watch. A
fair amount of high clouds within a 130+ knot upper jet may keep a
lid on deep mixing and ultimately any high winds. NBM temps were
tweaked higher tonight given increasing dewpoints, but look spot on
for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 126 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

An upper level trough and associated area of low pressure will
transverse through the region at the start of the long term period
swinging a Pacific front through the FA early Tuesday morning. This
will allow winds to shift out of the west-northwest around daybreak
where they are expected to increase in speed. A notable H7 to H8
wind maxima, around 40 to 60 knots, is expected to track down the
backside of an deepening departing surface low. Pressure gradient
rises of at least 2-3mb every 3 hours can be expected with MOS winds
reflecting wind speeds just shy of High Wind criteria with wind
speeds around 30 to 35 knots, with localized areas of wind speeds
greater than 35 knots. At this time, there is about an 50%
probability that wind speeds of 35 mph are expected and a 20%
probability of wind speeds of 40 mph. Regardless on if wind speeds
reach High Wind criteria, areas of blowing dust can be expected
which may lead to reduced visibilities. In terms of temperatures,
area are expected to be nearly 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to
Monday with daytime highs in the 60s to near 70 degrees thanks to
the cooler airmass in place. Post frontal air is expected to be
drier with dewpoints mainly below the 20th percentile, except for
the possibility of some wrap around moisture clipping portions of our
northwest counties. Therefore maintained a slight chance for showers
Tuesday morning. Otherwise, dry and windy conditions are the main
theme for Tuesday which will also lead to yet another day of
critical to extremely critical fire weather concerns with drying
fuels, minimum RH values below 20 percent, and windy conditions.

As the system quickly exits to the east Tuesday evening, upper level
ridging will begin to move overhead leading to relatively quiet
conditions on Wednesday as cooler conditions continue and winds
remain generally less than 15 mph. Southerly winds will redevelop
overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, as a surface low ahead of
the next upper level trough positions itself across the Rockies
influencing breezy southerly winds across the FA. Wind speeds of 20
to 25 mph can be expected on the Caprock and wind speeds of 15 to 20
mph Off the Caprock. These breezy winds and the continuation of ERC
values around the 70th to 95th percentile, and low Rh values will
lead to critical fire weather concerns across the southern half of
the FA. These conditions are expected to continue into Friday as the
upper level system moves closer to the region from the west. Models
diverge with the exact positioning of the upper level trough on
Saturday with the ECMWF displaying a more southern and slower track
as it sets up over the FA Saturday afternoon, while other models are
quicker with a more northern track moving across the Texas Panhandle
Saturday morning. With ensembles in better agreement with the
northern track of the system will go ahead and maintain a dry
forecast. Regardless, this system looks to bring cooler temperatures
with highs back in the 50s and 60s to start the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

Fog will build into the Childress and Plainview regions late at
night. Conditions are expected to improve around or shortly after
sunrise. Lubbock is expected to remain VFR. Tomorrow, windy
conditions will return to the area.

ANB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025

Critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon, primarily
over the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains where the
strongest WSW winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph are found
along with RHs in the teens. A cold front over the northwest South
Plains will spread southeast in the coming hours and bring higher
RHs along with weaker, but still breezy, WNW winds. Following strong
RH recoveries tonight especially in the far southern TX Panhandle,
much drier southwest winds develop tomorrow with speeds of 20 to 30
mph by the afternoon - highest near the TX-NM border. This will fuel
widespread critical fire weather conditions area wide.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...26