Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 03/01/25
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
431 PM MST Fri Feb 28 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 426 PM MST Fri Feb 28 2025
- Light rain and snow showers Saturday night and Sunday morning
across the higher terrain may briefly reduce visibility with
localized slick travel possible through high mountain passes.
- Strong west winds with low humidity across southern and eastern
areas Sunday afternoon may lead to rapid fire spread and areas
of blowing dust with low visibility and reduced air quality.
- Very strong west/southwest winds Monday will be followed by very
strong northwest winds Tuesday. Rapid fire spread may occur from
any new starts with areas of blowing dust, low visibility, and
reduced air quality. Light snow may also produce localized slick
travel across the northern mountains Monday night and Tuesday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 PM MST Fri Feb 28 2025
A spring-like weather pattern will impact the region through next
week with several bouts of strong winds, dangerous fire weather,
large temperatures swings, and perhaps even some rain and snow
near the high terrain. A preview will arrive Saturday with breezy
southwest winds, warm temperatures, and low humidity. Westerly
winds will be much stronger on Sunday with gusts of 45 to 55 mph
possible, especially for southern and eastern areas. Rapid fire
spread may occur from any new fire starts. It will also trend
cooler Sunday with a few rain and snow showers possible across
northern New Mexico. Monday will be warmer and very windy again
with low humidity and high fire danger. A few more rain and snow
showers may slide across northern NM Monday night. Potentially
damaging winds are then possible Tuesday with very dangerous fire
weather. Blowing dust and reduced air quality will occur with
each of these rounds of strong winds given the extended drought
developing over the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 205 PM MST Fri Feb 28 2025
It`s a very pleasant last day of meteorological winter across the
Land of Enchantment today with mostly clear skies, light winds, and
above normal temperatures. This will allow for near-optimal
radiational cooling tonight, leading to the development of strong
valley inversions.
A shortwave ridge will move overhead tomorrow out ahead of a Pacific
Low that will push into the Low desert of CA/AZ on Saturday
afternoon. Temperatures climb even further on Saturday due to the
ridging and a southerly breeze will be on the increase out ahead of
the Low. Winds will be strongest in SW NM near the AZ border, but
the Rio Grande Valley could get breezy as well since that area tends
to outperform guidance with a southerly wind direction. Winds will
remain strong through the night, even intensifying over the high
terrain south of I-40 as the upper-level jet max swings through.
Now, there is still uncertainty with regard to how deep this upper-
low will be so the main corridor of winds could still pass to the
south of the forecast area. While this Low won`t be the wettest
thing ever, there will be enough moisture near the center and along
the back-side to generate some showers, beginning Saturday night.
There is even a low chance of a quick burst of snow along the Cont.
Divide around sunrise Sunday with the passage of a Pacific cold
front, but impacts will be minor at most given the marginal
temperatures and brevity of snowfall.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM MST Fri Feb 28 2025
Noteworthy forecast changes have occurred for Sunday with regard to
the timing and placement of the H5 wave crossing NM. 12Z ensembles
with support from cluster analysis and variance trends are favoring
a more southerly, slightly faster track. This places the core of the
mid and upper level speed max farther south into southern NM Sunday
afternoon. While MET/MAVMOS guidance is much stronger, this latest
forecast decreases wind speeds Sunday and shifts the stronger core
in line with the LREF maximum across Lincoln and Chaves counties.
The NBM prob max wind gusts >50 mph is >90% along the Sacramento
Mts and nearby highlands of southwest Chaves County, while much
lower across much of eastern NM (where the MOS is much higher).
Blowing dust from southern NM may be significant for Lincoln and
Chaves counties. There is a secondary area of potential strong
west winds along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts
Sunday where mt waves amplify as the H5 low ejects eastward into
west TX. Max temps trended cooler as well which leads to higher
humidity for northern and western NM and less areal coverage of
critical fire weather.
Monday is very likely to be much windier than Sunday for a larger
area of NM as a deep upper level trough approaches from the Great
Basin. Flow aloft will back to the southwest while the H3 speed max
increases to near 150kt over southeast NM Monday. The latest NBM
prob max wind gusts >50 mph are above 70% for nearly all of the high
terrain and nearby highlands. Warmer temps are expected with a more
unstable airmass leading to larger areas of blowing dust. Any new
fire starts may spread rapidly just about anywhere. There is also
a chance (25-50%) for rain/snow across the northern and western
high terrain Monday night but QPF is very light at this time.
Tuesday may also be very windy in the wake of the H5 trough with
northwest wind gusts >50 mph again for central and eastern NM.
Temps are likely to trend cooler with slightly higher humidity.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 426 PM MST Fri Feb 28 2025
Trends continue from previous TAF set. Very high confidence in VFR
prevailing across all terminals for the next 24 hours. Winds will
be mainly light and terrain-driven through mid-afternoon Saturday
when the pressure gradient re-orients to drive modest southerly
breezes. Confidence still only low-to-medium on gusty drainage
winds developing at KSAF Saturday morning. Latest HRRR run
indicates only a short window from 15-18Z when northerly winds
could reach 10 knots, then a quick flip to the southerly flow
noted above.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM MST Fri Feb 28 2025
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
Light winds and above normal temperatures prevail around the region
today. Southerly winds will be on the increase tomorrow afternoon as
a Pacific Low moves inland into the desert southwest. It will be
very dry out west with 7-12% minimum afternoon RH, but winds are a
tad too weak for critical conditions so did not issue a Red Flag
Warning.
Southwest to west winds increase Sunday in eastern areas as the
center of the Low moves overhead. Models continue to trend slightly
slower and deeper with this Low so the corridor of strongest winds
has trended south and the magnitude of gusts has trended down as
well. That being said, there is low to moderate confidence in
critical fire weather conditions for the eastern plains and central
highlands so decided to not issue a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday.
Gusty winds are expected again on Monday as another trough deepens
over the Great Basin. This will create more widespread critical fire
weather conditions which may include almost the entire forecast area
outside of the northern mountains. Confidence is highest for south-
central and eastern areas where a Fire Weather Watch was issued.
The fire weather pattern will likely continue into Tuesday as gusty
northwest winds develop in the wake of an exiting low. Tuesday could
end up being the windiest day of the period thanks to strong lee-
cyclogenesis east of the Rockies. RH will likely be on the rise with
cooler temperatures Tuesday afternoon so that is something that
could limit the coverage of critical conditions.
Precipitation will favor the northern mountains Sunday through
Tuesday, but QPF amounts remain below 0.25" during this multi-day
period. Lower elevations shouldn`t expect much, with 0.1" at most.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 25 68 35 58 / 0 0 30 20
Dulce........................... 22 66 25 51 / 0 0 20 50
Cuba............................ 25 63 28 53 / 0 0 20 30
Gallup.......................... 16 70 24 57 / 0 0 30 10
El Morro........................ 29 65 26 53 / 0 0 40 10
Grants.......................... 19 67 26 56 / 0 0 30 10
Quemado......................... 27 67 27 56 / 0 0 20 10
Magdalena....................... 36 65 35 58 / 0 0 10 5
Datil........................... 31 65 29 55 / 0 0 10 5
Reserve......................... 21 71 23 62 / 0 0 20 5
Glenwood........................ 26 75 29 64 / 0 5 10 5
Chama........................... 24 59 25 43 / 0 0 20 50
Los Alamos...................... 35 60 35 50 / 0 0 20 30
Pecos........................... 29 62 33 51 / 0 0 20 20
Cerro/Questa.................... 29 60 31 48 / 0 0 10 20
Red River....................... 25 52 26 40 / 0 0 10 40
Angel Fire...................... 16 57 25 43 / 0 0 20 40
Taos............................ 21 63 28 51 / 0 0 5 20
Mora............................ 25 63 28 49 / 0 0 10 30
Espanola........................ 25 69 32 59 / 0 0 10 20
Santa Fe........................ 33 63 34 52 / 0 0 20 30
Santa Fe Airport................ 28 66 34 54 / 0 0 20 20
Albuquerque Foothills........... 40 68 39 57 / 0 0 20 20
Albuquerque Heights............. 35 70 38 60 / 0 0 10 10
Albuquerque Valley.............. 31 72 37 62 / 0 0 10 10
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 34 70 38 61 / 0 0 10 10
Belen........................... 26 72 35 65 / 0 0 10 10
Bernalillo...................... 30 71 37 61 / 0 0 10 20
Bosque Farms.................... 24 72 36 63 / 0 0 10 10
Corrales........................ 32 71 37 61 / 0 0 10 10
Los Lunas....................... 25 71 37 64 / 0 0 10 10
Placitas........................ 35 67 38 56 / 0 0 20 20
Rio Rancho...................... 34 70 37 61 / 0 0 10 10
Socorro......................... 35 74 38 67 / 0 0 5 5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 33 64 34 50 / 0 0 20 20
Tijeras......................... 34 65 36 53 / 0 0 20 20
Edgewood........................ 29 66 33 54 / 0 0 10 10
Moriarty/Estancia............... 19 67 31 57 / 0 0 10 10
Clines Corners.................. 27 62 34 52 / 0 0 10 10
Mountainair..................... 29 67 36 56 / 0 0 10 10
Gran Quivira.................... 28 66 36 57 / 0 0 10 5
Carrizozo....................... 37 69 42 61 / 0 0 10 5
Ruidoso......................... 36 64 41 53 / 0 0 10 5
Capulin......................... 25 61 33 54 / 0 0 0 20
Raton........................... 22 65 29 57 / 0 0 0 20
Springer........................ 19 67 29 58 / 0 0 5 20
Las Vegas....................... 24 62 31 54 / 0 0 10 10
Clayton......................... 31 66 36 62 / 0 0 0 30
Roy............................. 25 62 35 59 / 0 0 5 20
Conchas......................... 29 70 37 66 / 0 0 10 20
Santa Rosa...................... 31 67 36 62 / 0 0 10 10
Tucumcari....................... 28 70 39 67 / 0 0 10 30
Clovis.......................... 34 71 40 68 / 0 0 10 20
Portales........................ 32 72 41 69 / 0 0 10 20
Fort Sumner..................... 30 70 37 67 / 0 0 10 10
Roswell......................... 36 74 43 75 / 0 0 5 5
Picacho......................... 35 70 40 66 / 0 0 5 0
Elk............................. 36 71 40 64 / 0 0 5 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for NMZ106-109-124>126.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...53-Schroeder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
815 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered flurries across northwest and central North Dakota
this evening through tonight.
- High variance in forecast high temperatures on Saturday,
ranging from the mid 20s near the Turtle Mountains to near 50
in the far southwest.
- Temperatures around 10 to 20 degrees above average statewide
Sunday and Monday.
- Low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) for rain and snow
Monday night through Tuesday, with temperatures falling back
to near average.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025
Guidance is struggling mightily with the expansive low/mid
stratus covering northwest, central, and southeast North Dakota
this evening. The HRRR and RAP are at least depicting the
western half of these clouds, which does have lower ceilings
compared to the eastern half. But the more predominantly mid
level clouds from the Turtle Mountains through the James River
Valley are almost absent from all model guidance, aside from
some hints in the GFS. The mechanisms responsible for these
clouds appear to be a mid level jet streak riding over a low
level baroclinic zone. Also present is surface high pressure
expanding into northeast North Dakota, but the associated dry
northeasterly flow does not appear to be deterring the mid
level clouds. Major adjustments have been made to the sky cover
forecast, which now advertises a mostly cloudy sky across most
of western and central North Dakota through the night, and there
is now a much slower dissipating trend in cloud cover through
the day tomorrow.
Flurries are becoming more common along the Highway 83 corridor
north of Bismarck. Still have not seen visibility reduced below
9 miles, so confidence remains high in flurries vs. light snow.
Coverage of flurries was boosted to scattered for this update in
areas of higher confidence.
UPDATE
Issued at 555 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025
The Wind Advisory has been cancelled as winds are no longer
meeting criteria.
A few sites closer to the Canadian border are now reporting
snow at 9-10 mile visibility, and similar observations have
been noted upstream into southeast Saskatchewan. Given high
confidence that snowfall will not become any more intense than
this, have converted the 20 percent chance of light snow to an
isolated flurries mention in the forecast through the night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025
Cold front has pushed across the CWA and is now more of a
stalled boundary from northwestern to south central North
Dakota. Abundant cloud cover will be found along this stalled
boundary through tonight. There are limited indications a weak
wave aloft may seed this lower level moisture along this
boundary tonight. This could lead to a few isolated snow showers
along the boundary, although the chance of this is lower (less
than 25%) as a surface high will move start moving into the
region. For now added slight chance mention. Winds from this
front are also starting to diminish. There are still some areas
with sustained wind speeds at or near Wind Advisory criteria.
Cancelled the advisory where winds have diminished, although it
will remain through late this afternoon in south central and
southeastern portions, mainly for sustained wind speeds. With
this mentioned surface high moving across the east lows tonight
will generally be in the single digits to teens east to the
lower to mid 20s west. Stalled boundary could linger then push
east on Saturday. This could linger some partly to mostly cloudy
skies along this boundary. Surface high should limit chances
for precipitation with this cloud cover, thus kept the forecast
dry for now although a few flurries are possible. Temperatures
along and east of this boundary will remain near to slightly
above normal, while temperatures in the west remain in the 40s
to lower 50s. Winds should also remain light and generally
southerly. Skies become mainly clear for Saturday night, with
light winds continuing. Lows Saturday night look to be in the
20s, with some teens northeast. A broad ridge the sets in for
Sunday brining a warm and mainly dry day. Look for highs in the
40s to mid 50s, with far northeastern areas in the upper 30s.
Sunday night remains dry and mild, with lows in the 20s.
Monday sees another mild day as the broad ridge transitions to a
large trough pattern. Monday night through Tuesday night, this
large trough pattern combined with a large surface low in the
central plains could bring about cooler, more normal like,
temperatures and the next chances for snow. Most clusters show
split flow with this system, and 60% of clusters keep the
precipitation to the south. The remaining 40% of clusters give a
broad chance of mainly light snow with the inverted surface
trough and passage of the split wave. NBM putting in 20 to 40%
chance for mainly snow and mainly on Tuesday as a result. A
general northwest flow pattern then sets up for mid to late
week. This pattern looks to support more near to slightly above
normal temperatures. Perhaps a weak wave or two brings at least
slight chances for light precipitation in this pattern,
however, confidence in timing and location with any weak wave
right now is low and a mainly dry forecast is currently
published.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 815 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025
MVFR ceilings are expected to continue across parts of western
and central North Dakota through Saturday morning. Some
terminals may see alternating periods of MVFR/VFR over this time
frame, while others remain consistently at MVFR. In addition,
KXWA is the only terminal with an IFR ceiling, and there is very
low confidence on how long it will remain this low there.
Scattered flurries are also expected across northwest and
central North Dakota tonight, but visibility is expected to
remain at VFR levels. All terminals are forecast to return to
prevailing VFR conditions Saturday afternoon. Northerly winds
will continue to diminish this evening, becoming light and
gradually turning to the east and south through Saturday
morning.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
841 PM MST Fri Feb 28 2025
.DISCUSSION...No updates tonight. Saturday will be the warmest
day in a while, with temps 5-10 degrees above normal. A Pacific
closed low is still on track to move inland Sunday, bringing a
20-40% chance of showers, mainly over the southern half of our
forecast area. Snow levels during the event will be roughly 5k
ft MSL, with close to an inch of snow possible in southern
highlands and more on ridges. Extended runs of high-res models
are split on precip mode, with the NAM-nest showing more
stratiform precip and the HRRR more convective.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. Light winds. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: variable
5-10kts.
KBOI...VFR. Clear. Light winds.
Sunday Outlook...Increasing clouds with 20 to 40 percent chance
of showers later Sunday with snow levels around 5500 feet MSL.
Best chance for showers looks to be south of Burns-Boise-
Stanley line Sunday afternoon into Monday. Low VFR/MVFR in
rain. MVFR/IFR and mountain obscurations in snow.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...To manage anticipated spring snowmelt and runoff,
Bully Creek, Agency Valley, and Warm Springs Reservoirs will
begin releasing water this weekend. As a result, the Malheur
River is expected to rise above flood stage, leading to minor
flooding throughout much of next week. The current forecast of
such releases suggest the river will remain below moderate flood
stage at this time. A Flood Warning is in effect through the
middle of next week with high flows expected for the river.
More precipitation is forecast for the Malheur Basin this
weekend however, amounts are expected to be very light (less
than 0.05") basin wide. Conditions will be closely monitored in
the coming days.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...Mostly clear skies
and mild temperatures will persist through Saturday as a steady
upper ridge remains over the northern Intermountain region.
Overnight temperatures will dip again tonight, especially in
snow-covered areas, with valleys dropping below freezing. By
Saturday afternoon, valley temperatures are expected to reach
the upper 50s to low 60s.
A Pacific upper trough near 150 W is on track to move onshore in
California late Saturday night, progressing east along 40 N
across Nevada and forming a closed low from Sunday into Monday.
Recent model runs indicate a more southerly track, moving across
central California into southern Nevada and Utah by Sunday
night. This trajectory will limit precipitation amounts, with
the highest likelihood (35%) of up to 0.25 inches of
liquidequating to around one inch of new snowabove 5500 feet
MSL in southeastern Oregon and southwest Idaho, mainly south of
the Snake River Valley. Northerly winds will increase along the
Nevada border on Sunday as the low passes south, but speeds are
expected to remain below advisory levels. Temperatures will
remain near normal Saturday into Sunday.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...The departing upper-level
trough will continue to produce showers across the area Monday,
with snow levels lowering to around 4000 feet. A brief break in
precipitation is expected Tuesday before another large-scale
trough brings widespread light precipitation Wednesday through
Friday. This marks a significant shift from previous forecasts,
resulting in low confidence in the pattern change. Temperatures
will remain near or slightly below normal throughout the period,
with light rain or snow possible above 4500 feet from Wednesday
through Friday.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/Boise
Interact with us via social media:
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www.x.com/NWSBoise
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION.....JM
HYDROLOGY...JM
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JDS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
952 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
...Evening Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
Forecast remains on track this evening. Expecting clear skies and
lows in the 40s. Did make some tweaks to forecast dewpoints using
NBM10 and HRRR guidance for tomorrow afternoon to capture the
potential for mixing to as much as 6-7kft -- this evening`s 00Z
sounding showed a mixed layer to 5500ft, and the dry front has not
yet arrived to further bolster drying gusts. See Fire Weather
discussion below for more details.
96
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
High pressure center currently across the northern Gulf will move
eastward overnight as a dry cold front pushes east. The front will
move through tomorrow, with no precipitation expected. Winds will
shift more to the northwest with frequent gusts to between 20 and 25
mph. Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal for
tonight and tomorrow. However, slightly below normal temps are
expected for Saturday night behind the dry front.
Main forecast impacts are fire weather related which are discussed
in detail below.
NListemaa
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
Key Messages:
-High fire danger conditions are looking increasingly likely Sunday
and Monday with very dry fuels and low relative humidity values.
-The next chance of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated to be
late Tuesday into Wednesday.
As the long term period begins on Sunday morning, the axis of a deep
upper trough will be roughly centered over the Atlantic Coast, with
northwesterly flow on the back side of the trough overspreading the
entire eastern CONUS. A surface high pressure will meanwhile be
centered just to the north of Georgia and will gradually progress
eastward. A cool and very dry continental airmass will be in place
across the forecast area behind a frontal boundary passing through
on Saturday. Low temperatures on Sunday will begin in the mid 20s to
low 30s in north Georgia and mid to upper 30s in central Georgia.
Afternoon highs will range from the upper 40s across far north
Georgia to the low 60s in south-central Georgia. Warming
temperatures are expected on Monday with the continued influence of
the surface high, and the trough moving away from the region and
being replaced by upper ridging. After another cold morning in the
upper 20s to low 30s across the majority of the area, highs on
Monday are forecast to be in the upper 50s to low 60s in north
Georgia and mid 60s in central Georgia.
Considering strong subsidence of dry air underneath the high, the
10th percentile of NBM has been favored for dewpoints Sunday into
Monday. As such, minimum RH values are expected to range from 20-25
percent for several hours each afternoon, which will likely warrant
Fire Danger Statements both days given very dry fuels. At this time,
winds are forecast to be 5-10 mph each day, from N/NW on Sunday and
SE on Monday, which should keep the area outside of Red Flag
criteria. A Fire Weather portion of the AFD has been included below.
The surface high pressure will begin to move eastward off the
eastern seaboard late Monday into Tuesday, at which point advection
of warm and moist air will begin with southerly low level flow. A
more significant shortwave will then dig over the Central Plains on
Tuesday. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over Kansas by
Tuesday morning, then lift northeast towards the southern Great
Lakes by Wednesday morning. A cold front extending from this low
will advance towards north Georgia by Tuesday night. The amount of
instability is uncertain, particularly as the frontal precipitation
is expected to arrive late Tuesday night. Dynamic energy will be
stronger in the norther during the overnight hours, and this may
make up for the lack of thermodynamic energy. As the front
progresses SE, there will be a tradeoff as instability increases
during the day, but dynamic energy will be waning as the parent low
moves away to the northeast. At least isolated thunderstorms are
expected ahead of the front, and some of these thunderstorms may be
strong. At this time, damaging wind gusts appear that it will be the
greatest threat. The timing and storm mode will be further refined
as we get closer to the event. Storm total rainfall amounts are
forecast to range from 1 inch to the north of I-20 to less than a
0.5 inch to the south of a line from Columbus and Macon. Locally
higher amounts may be possible in the higher elevations of far
northeast Georgia.
King
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
VFR conds exp thru the TAF pd. Primarily SKC, with occasional
periods of FEW-SCT at 20-25kft. Winds will be W to NW at 6-8kts
overnight, increasing to 9-15kts sustained with gusts to 20-25kts
by 14-15Z.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence all elements.
96
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 935 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
The Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, in
effect from 11AM until 8PM tomorrow (Saturday) for all of north
and central Georgia. Owing to the passage of a dry cold front
throughout the day tomorrow, expect gusty winds -- sustained at
15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph or higher -- to develop by mid-
morning. Fine dry fuels plummeted to just 4 to 6 percent moisture
this afternoon, and with no wetting rains in the forecast, expect
them to be as dry or drier tomorrow afternoon. Relative humidity
tends to overperform in these regimes, and we`re currently
forecasting minimum values between 20 to 26 percent effectively areawide,
though we may see some locales drop into the teens depending on
how efficient mixing is as the front passes.
96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 45 70 33 55 / 0 0 0 0
Atlanta 48 68 34 54 / 0 0 0 0
Blairsville 41 58 23 49 / 0 0 0 0
Cartersville 44 65 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 44 74 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
Gainesville 46 66 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
Macon 45 75 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
Rome 44 64 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
Peachtree City 44 70 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
Vidalia 48 77 42 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EST Saturday for GAZ001>009-
011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-
102>113.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...96
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
707 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wind gusts to between 30 and 45 mph will still be possible
this evening as a cold front moves through up to around 4z.
- Brief snow showers possible Saturday morning with less than 1
inch accumulation expected down wind of Lake MI, then dry
through Monday morning. Colder for the weekend with highs in
the 30s.
- Mild with chances for rain/snow midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
A strong low pressure system centered over the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan will deepen as it races eastward today. A tightening
pressure gradient across the Midwest has resulted in a windy
day today, especially ahead of the system`s attendant trough and
cold front. The trough is currently moving through Illinois,
with the cold front draped further back across Iowa and
Wisconsin. Southwest winds will be sustained this afternoon at
20 to 30 mph, with wind gusts as high as 45 to 55 mph
(especially south of US 30). WAA is helping to boost
temperatures into the 50s to near 60 this afternoon, albeit it
may not be the best day to be outside with the strong winds. The
Wind Advisory has been extended until 7 PM EST across the
entire area. Winds will remain elevated this evening and
overnight even after the cold front has passed through late this
evening, with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph through Saturday
morning. As temperatures plummet into the mid 20s overnight and
post-frontal winds switch to the northwest, a brief period of
snow showers will be possible late Friday into early Saturday
morning (favored especially by the HRRR and Canadian) despite
weakening lift and moisture as the main system departs. The
best chances for snow showers will be in northwest Indiana and
southwest Lower Michigan where up to 1" of accumulation is
possible. It will be dry Saturday afternoon through Monday
morning, as high pressure builds across the upper Midwest and
Ohio River Valley. Temperatures will be seasonably cold with
highs in the 30s both days this weekend.
A more active weather pattern is ahead for the first week of March
with chances for rain/snow. A period of scattered showers is
possible Monday and Tuesday before a larger system arrives midweek.
Mid and long range model guidance has been showing a strong low
pressure system moving through the Great Lakes around midweek, but
uncertainties in rain/snow amounts and track of the system remain.
Heavy rain is possible midweek in the warm sector, with a changeover
to snow as colder air wraps around the backside of the system. Windy
conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be
mild (into the 50s) again by midweek before becoming seasonable
again late in the week and into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 703 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
A low pressure system departs east this evening and the low level
jet weakens some as the pressure gradient relaxes, but wind gusts
are expected to be around 25 kts even through the overnight and into
Saturday as the temp gradient and good lapse rates still remain.
There is also a thin layer of higher moisture and that will help
keep CIGs around 3500 to 4500 ft through the night. As such,
wouldn`t be surprised to see a stray MVFR CIG between 10 and 15z and
these could bring rain probably changing to snow showers tonight at
SBN. Given uncertainty with the location of snow showers, have gone
with tempo MVFR conditions later tonight early Saturday. Winds look
to stay out of the northwest through the period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Roller
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
643 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Travel conditions will deteriorate quickly this afternoon and
evening, especially over the counties bordering Lake Superior,
as snow and strong winds develop.
- The snow, combined with quickly falling temperatures, could
lead to icy roads developing this evening. Visibility will be
reduced in snow and blowing snow. Additional snowfall totals
this afternoon through tonight range from around 2 inches
near the lakeshore to near 8 inches in the higher terrain of
the north-central and western UP.
- Winds gusting to 40-55 mph, strongest over the Keweenaw,
central, and eastern UP, could lead to a few downed tree limbs
and power outages.
- Lake effect snow diminishes Saturday and Saturday night with
mostly dry conditions and a warming trend into at least early
next week. Widespread above freezing temperatures expected
for Monday and Tuesday.
- Strong low pressure system will bring strong winds, rain and
wet, heavy snow to the Great Lakes Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Exactly how much and who will see rain vs snow
will depend on the track of the storm, which is uncertain at
this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 319 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows the strong shortwave
trough/dry slot having pushed east of the UP. As a result, most
areas have seen little to no impactful snowfall for most of the day,
aside from perhaps northern Luce County. RAP analysis shows a 989 mb
surface low just north of Grand Island. Colder air is already
pouring into the western UP as winds shift northerly, with temps
falling below freezing and into the 20s. The observed track of the
low, displaced slightly north of previous expectations, is leading
to a slight downturn in forecast snowfall amounts. However, the main
impact will be the combination of lake effect snowfall, increasing
winds, and plummeting temperatures this afternoon and evening. Lake
enhanced snow will increase through mid-afternoon as some brief
deeper forcing associated with deformation on the back of the low,
but it will quickly transition to lake effect, maximized over the
higher terrain. While inversion heights are not too high (less than
5kft), there will be good low-level instability, so some moderate
(0.5-0.75 inch/hr) rates will likely be realized. Meanwhile,
temperatures will continue plummeting into the lower 20s and teens,
which raises concern for flash freeze/icy conditions developing on
area roadways.
As far as the wind, 21 mb/6hr pressure rises continue to be forecast
by short-range models, leading to high confidence in windy
conditions as winds shift northwesterly to northerly this evening.
There will be a brief period where mixing into a 45-50 kt layer
could occur, and consideration was given to a High Wind Warning for
the Keweenaw and Lake Superior shoreline counties from Marquette
eastward. Elected to maintain the wind advisory as this magnitude of
winds should be rather brief, but we should continue to see frequent
45-55 mph gusts this evening into the early overnight hours. The
wind will add to the travel difficulties with blowing and drifting
snow reducing visibility.
Drier air will lead to a rather quick downturn in lake effect snow
after 06Z, although there could continue to be some light
accumulation in the north wind belts. Lows tonight mainly in the
single digits with wind chills falling into the negative single
digits and negative teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
Saturday will begin with today`s outgoing clipper on the forward
edge of deep troughing pushing through the lower Great Lakes. At the
surface, this clipper looks to be just north of New York. Upstream,
surface ridging will begin pressing into our forecast area ahead of
mid-upper level ridging extending through the Rockies. As this
feature migrates eastward, expecting improving conditions and a
mostly dry weekend and early next week. Pattern changes next week
though as a surface low develops in the lee of the Rockies ahead of
a deep trough moving through the Rockies. Guidance continues to
suggest this feature will lift into the Great Lakes by the middle of
next week. Solutions for the system currently include a mix of rain
and snow, heavy wet snow, and mostly dry.
Ridge axis will reach the western UP by Saturday evening and press
into southern Ontario Sunday morning. The effect this will have is a
diminishing trend to lake effect snow showers, decreasing winds, and
clearing skies from west to east. Increasing subsidence and mid-
level dry air will result in lowering inversion heights from around
6k feet in the morning to ~3k in the afternoon, with an inverted v
signature developing in the low levels by afternoon. Additional snow
accumulations downwind of Lake Superior through the day will amount
to an inch or two in the favored northwest wind snowbelts, mainly
over eastern Upper Michigan. Bulk of this would be expected in the
morning. Daytime highs should top out mostly in the teens. Saturday
night for everyone outside the east can expect mostly clear skies.
Continued moisture between 2-4k feet will continue mostly cloudy
skies in the east though, perhaps with pockets of light snow or
flurries. Overnight lows are expected to be near 10F by Lake
Superior and single digits elsewhere, perhaps below zero in the
interior west/Michigamme Highlands.
Mostly dry conditions, save for pockets of light snow or flurries in
the east Sunday, will continue through at least Monday night across
Upper Michigan as winds shift to light, southerly flow and warm air
advection at 850mb begins. Temperatures will trend higher each day
and night into next week. Daytime highs Sunday look to top out in
the mid-upper 20s east/Keweenaw and low 30s south and west. Above
freezing temps Monday and Tuesday may breach into the 40s. Overnight
lows in the period look to be below freezing, although there`s less
certainty for Monday and Tuesday night.
Upstream on Tuesday, increasing upper level divergence tied to left
exit region of a 120-150kt jet streak ahead of a deep mid-upper
level trough pressing east through the Rockies will result in a
deepening surface low in the eastern Colorado/western
Kansas/Oklahoma panhandle region. The system is expected to take on
a negative tilt Tuesday evening, enabling a strong 50-75kt 925-850mb
low level jet to surge a warm and moist airmass northward ahead of
the low as it lifts northeastward into the Great Lakes. Leading
shortwave and wave of light rain, could build into the forecast area
from the south Tuesday. Afterwards though, there`s more uncertainty
given everything will depend on the track of the system. Right now,
rather loose surface low clustering is noted among the GEFS, GEPS,
and EPS membership, but ensemble means largely focus the track
through Illinois and Lower Michigan Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Given the available moisture, robust forcing, and favorable cyclonic
flow, the track of the surface low will dictate whether
precipitation makes it into our forecast area Wednesday and if it
does, whether it will fall as rain, snow, or a mix. For example, if
the surface low tracks through central or northern Lower Michigan,
heavy, wet snow would be favored for central and eastern Upper
Michigan should the cold air stick around. However, this track also
favors rain or a mix of rain and snow if enough warm air pulls north
ahead of the system. If the low tracks to near the Straits or
further north, then warm air would likely allow for rain in the east
with maybe a mix of rain and snow, or heavy wet snow for western
Upper Michigan. In contrast to this, if the low ends up far enough
south and moves through southern Lower, a majority of the forecast
area may remain dry. This same uncertainty is reflected in snow
probabilities of the NBM, LREF, and each deterministic solution`s
ensemble counter part. At this point, the range of probability for
greater than 6 inches of snow across our forecast area Wednesday
spans 0-70%, with the higher probabilities focused on the Michigamme
Highlands. At this point, given the uncertainty and that there
hasn`t been a clear trend run to run, confidence is low (<25%) on
the outcome. At this point, recommend those with travel plans
anywhere in the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday to keep an eye
on the forecast for updates.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
A strong clipper system will continue to track across Lake Superior
this evening, bringing high winds and low visibilities due to snow
and blowing snow. LIFR will persist this evening at all terminals,
with conditions below airport minimums expected to continue at CMX
through at least 02Z. Conditions will slowly improve late tonight
into Saturday morning as lake effect snow tapers off.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025
Strong clipper system moving through Lake Superior right now is
supporting gales, potentially mixed with storm force winds.
Strongest winds are expected on the low`s western flank and out of
the north. These will decrease through the night as the low exits
east, but still remain above 20kts through at least Saturday
evening. Heavy freeing spray is also expected into Saturday
afternoon and evening. High pressure will dominate the Upper Great
Lakes through Tuesday. At that point, a strong low pressure is
expected to lift northeast into the Great Lakes. There is still a
good bit of uncertainty in the track, and thus magnitude of the
winds and waves Wednesday. At this point, the track favors Gales,
but these very well could be higher.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for
MIZ001.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for MIZ001-003-005>007-
013-014-085.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for MIZ001-006-
007-085.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday
for MIZ002>005-009-084.
Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for MIZ005-
006.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
MIZ014.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday for
LSZ240>242-245>248-263-265.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for LSZ162.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/
Saturday for LSZ162.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/
Saturday for LSZ240>242-263.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for LSZ243-244-249>251-
264-266-267.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST Saturday for
LSZ243-244-249>251-264-266-267.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for
LSZ245>248-265.
Lake Michigan...
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Thompson
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...JTP