Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/26/25
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
733 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers (30-60% coverage) late tonight into early
Wednesday A.M., with little accumulation; isolated thunder
possible.
- Breezy, above normal temperatures, and very dry conditions on
Friday will result in an elevated fire danger.
- Above normal temperatures will continue through the forecast
period, with temperatures remaining in the 40s and 50s. Friday
is geared to be the warmest day of the stretch, with many
potentially reaching the 60s!
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 733 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
The going forecast message continues with scattered showers after
10 PM moving from west to east. A fairly similar look of
satellite and radar from 24 hours ago with a strong short wave
upstream (eastern SD to central NE) translating eastward with
areas of semi-organized, high based showers ahead of it. Some
lightning strikes have been seen north of Omaha the last couple
hours too. Overall this should translate east and over our area
between 10 PM - 5 AM.
Both our 00Z sounding and OAX`s sampled considerable dryness in
the mid to lower troposphere, though OAX`s had markedly steep
lapse rates (8.5 C from 850-550 mb) and a pronounced warm
advection profile. As this wave translates east, short term
guidance does want to saturate a portion of that profile within
the steepest lapse rates, allowing for an uptick in shower
coverage across eastern IA and northwest IL within their
solutions. The pronounced dryness in the low-levels gives some
pause, but with the strength of the WAA pocket, have nudged up
PoPs some and also gone shower coverage wording in the forecast
vs "chance" with high enough confidence in at least some showers
in our area. As previous AFD mentioned, lightning is possible
on the edge of the 8.5 C/km lapse rates, mainly in eastern
IA/northeast MO, but too low of confidence to include in
forecast. While last night did have some wind gusts, low-level
lapse rates are not as favorable for that, so overall a low to
no impact event.
One other note, some locales in mainly northwest Illinois may
dip to freezing late this evening within the decoupled boundary
layer under clear skies, but temperatuers and wet bulb
temperatures should recover to above freezing prior to rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 223 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
A barrage of weak waves will pass through the area over the next 24-
48 hours. The first bout of energy is set to pass through late
tonight, then the next midday tomorrow, with the final passing
through early Thursday morning. The best moisture flux into the area
will be seen tonight, ahead of the initial wave, with west-
northwesterly flow kicking in behind it for the next two bouts of
energy. Thus, the better chance for any precipitation will be with
the first wave. Short term guidance keeps the second round passing
through dry, with some hinting at the chance for light precipitation
once again Thursday morning. Temperatures will be above
freezing throughout the area, keeping the precipitation type as
rain. Although, with this system being quite weak, we are
expecting overall accumulation to be low, with HREF favoring
below 0.10" of rain for those that see it. Rather than a
widespread light rain, this will largely be scattered showers.
Thus, some may remain dry through the night. There will be some
very low MUCAPE present, which may allow for some isolated
thunder as well tonight. These showers and isolated storms will
move into the area between 9pm-Midnight local time, and clear
most of the area by sunrise on Wednesday.
Tomorrow, we will remain dry through much of the area, as we will be
in a postfrontal airmass. Clouds will remain through much of the
day, as we are left with a scattered/broken deck of stratus as the
the next bout of energy passes through. Temperatures will remain
above normal once again, with most in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Those south of Interstate 80 will see temperatures approaching the
mid 50s. Tomorrow night, we will remain dry once again, with the
exception of the chance for widely isolated showers. Confidence
isn`t high on this, with the HRRR mainly highlighting the chance
Thursday AM. Thus, we are going to keep Wednesday night dry, with
temperatures hovering around 30 and decreasing clouds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
Weak wave passes through to our east Thursday morning, which may be
a focal point for light showers. We will be lacking moisture,
so confidence is low on the chance. Guidance continues to come
in dry, with the HRRR being the main one showing any signs of
precipitation. Thus, will opt for the dry forecast for the time
being. Otherwise, northwest flow will dominate through the
remainder of the week, leaving us dry and under cool advection.
Temperatures will trend slightly lower on Thursday as a result,
but remain well above seasonal norms, with Friday seeing the
potential for widespread 60s due to strong southwesterly LLVL
flow!
Friday will be the main concern during this time period. While the
temperatures are going to feel quite beautiful, other conditions
will come together to result in an elevated fire danger. A
strong wave will be passing north of the area, with a dry
frontal passage and gusty gradient winds resulting. NBM guidance
came in a little lower than desired, so we opted to up winds a
bit to account for mixing down of stronger winds, highlighted
well in model soundings. Winds will largely be westerly to
northwesterly through the day, with gusts upwards to 30-40 mph
or higher at times. Thus, with the combination of well above
normal temperatures, dry air, dry/dead vegetation, and gusty
winds, we will see an elevated fire danger.
Weekend and Beyond...
Northwest flow will remain the dominant pattern through the
weekend, keeping the area a bit cooler than previous days, yet
still above normal. Temperatures will largely be in the low-mid
40s, with mostly clear skies and lighter winds. Thus, it should
be a beautiful weekend ahead of us, even with the cooler
temperatures. Beyond the weekend, the upper level pattern goes
active once again. There remains much uncertainty of the track
and timing of systems, but the overall consensus brings
precipitation to the area by mid next week. Temperatures will
remain above normal as we head into the next work week as well.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
A quick-moving weather disturbance will pass over the area late
this evening and overnight, bringing with it the 2-3 hour chance
for some mainly VFR rain showers. The chances are highest north
of I-80 where coverage is expected to be highest but overall
impacts should be limited to none.
Light south-southeast winds through the night will turn westerly
behind the weather system early Wednesday morning. As these
increase, confidence is high in afternoon gusts of 20-25 kt and
sporadic to near 30 kt are possible. Confidence is also high in
MVFR ceilings for the I-80 corridor and north during the
afternoon, possibly starting as early as 14Z at CID and DBQ.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Friedlein
SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Friedlein
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
659 PM MST Tue Feb 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A 20 percent chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
this evening. An isolated wind gust to 55 mph and dry
lightning may accompany any thunderstorm that develops.
- Low probability (30 percent) for elevated to near critical
fire weather conditions Friday afternoon.
- Confidence in precipitation chances is slowly increasing
Sunday through early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM MST Tue Feb 25 2025
Rain showers have moved out of the area so will let the High
Wind Warning for Red Willow, Hitchcock, Decatur and Norton
counties expire on time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM MST Tue Feb 25 2025
Shortwave trough and associated surface cold front moves through
the area from northwest to southeast tonight. Environment will
be characterized by a few hundred joules of SBCAPE from late
this afternoon through early this evening, with MUCAPE lingering
a few hours afterwards. Inverted-V soundings suggest strong
winds possible near any thunderstorm that develops, with support
for that in the HRRR surface wind gust forecast. Little, if
any, precipitation likely to make it to the ground, but a few
dry lightning strikes will be possible. Precipitation/thunder
threat ends by 06z as front moves south and environment
stabilizes. Low Temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower
30s.
On Wednesday, a broad trough continues from the central plains
westward to the central Rockies. The cold pool aloft may promote
some convective development, but moisture appears lacking for
any precipitation as models are dry. Breezy northwest winds in
the morning will diminish in the afternoon. Highs will range
from the upper 40s in Colorado to the upper 50s in northwest
Kansas. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 20s.
Upper ridge starts rebuild from the west on Thursday with
temperatures climbing into the upper 50s to middle 60s. Winds
will be light out of the west with mostly sunny skies. Lows
Thursday night will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM MST Tue Feb 25 2025
Upper ridging continues for the area Friday and Saturday with
dry conditions and mild temperatures. Highs will be in the mid
to upper 60s on Friday and around 60 on Saturday behind a weak
cold front. May see some elevated fire weather conditions on
Friday with the warmer temperatures and humidity dropping into
the teens. Wind speeds will be strongest in Colorado with
northerly winds gusting to 30 mph there, and up to 25 mph in
northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Humidity recovers on
Saturday to around 25 percent and no fire weather hazards
expected.
Models have trended towards the northerly solution for the cut
off ejecting across the Rockies on Sunday. Both the
deterministic GFS and ECMWF have precipitation chances in the
area. Precipitation type is a bit problematic. There is a rather
large range in temperature forecasts for Sunday, with some
colder guidance suggesting highs only around 40, but warmer
guidance well into the 60s. If colder temperatures materialize,
cannot rule out some wet snow on Sunday, likely melting on
contact with the ground given antecedent warm conditions. The
precipitation chances continue into Sunday night with the
compact closed upper low wobbling through the area. Lows will be
in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
The area will be between systems on Monday with a lull in
precipitation chances. Highs will be in the upper 50s. Next
shortwave moves out of the Rockies Monday night and across the
area on Tuesday. Still some timing and track differences, but
precipitation chances are increasing. Unlike the previous
system, this one will tap into colder air, which may lead to
better chances of snow. Winds may also play a factor with the
NBM showing very windy conditions with a deep surface low in
western Kansas. Temperatures are still marginal however, with
colder guidance in the 30s for highs, and at this time range
much of the details will certainly change. So for now just have
rain/snow chances for Tuesday and cooler temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 420 PM MST Tue Feb 25 2025
KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A west
wind around 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the northwest at
similar speeds from 03z-04z. From 05z-09z, northerly winds
gusting to around 20kts are forecast. From 10z-14z, winds
subside to around 11kts from the northwest. After 15z, northwest
winds gusting up to 30kts are expected. There is a slim (15%)
chance for a shower or possible thunderstorm from taf issuance
through about 02z as a cold front moves through. At the moment,
will not include a shower or thunderstorm mention in the
forecast just yet. Should one develop, the primary hazard would
be gusty outflow wind gusts.
KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A west-
northwest wind gusting to around 20kts at taf issuance will veer
to the northwest with gusts up to 25kts through 04z as a cold
front moves through. From 05z-14z, winds will be from the
northwest around 10kts. After 15z, northwest winds increase with
gusts up to 30kts. Virga/showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
could impact the terminal from taf issuance through 0130z with
gusty outflow winds the primary hazard.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 138 AM MST Tue Feb 25 2025
Here are the record high temperatures for Tuesday, February 25:
Goodland KS 75F/1989+
Hill City KS 80F/1986
McCook NE 75F/2024
Burlington CO 75F/1917
____________________________
Colby KS 77F/1917
Tribune KS 78F/1986
Yuma CO 73F/2009+
A (+) denotes a record for multiple years
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...JN
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
847 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer than normal temperatures stick around through the end of
the week. Temperatures dip down to seasonal normals by the
weekend followed by another warm up early next week.
- A weather system will bring another chance (30-50%) for precipitation
tonight through Wednesday afternoon. Rain amounts look minimal.
- Breezy conditions will be common each afternoon through the end
of the week, with the strongest winds anticipated on Friday.
The NBM features a 30-50% chance for wind gusts in excess of 35
mph by Friday afternoon.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
Temps are falling quicker than forecast and getting lower than
overnight low forecast also. Will need to make some adjustments to
hourly temps and forecast low for overnight, given how dry the
lower layers are. The main area where temps are getting lower than
forecast is in the northeast, north of I-74 and east of I-57
toward Paris, IL. Skies should become partly to mostly cloudy by
morning with light winds, which is right in line with what is in
the current forecast. Update should be coming shortly.
Auten
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
Surface ridging is spilling east into the area this afternoon, which
should allow winds to become light by this evening. Temperatures as
of 2 pm range from the middle to upper 50s, with parts of southeast
Illinois touching 60 degrees. Water vapor imagery shows an upper
wave situated over southern Montana/northern Wyoming which is
forecast to slide southeast toward the Great lakes Region Wednesday.
A surface low will approach the Upper Mississippi Valley late
tonight, with CAMs depicting a wing of warm air advection showers
developing near/north of I-74 shortly after midnight then sliding
east into northern Indiana by daybreak. The pressure gradient will
tighten with the passing low, allowing wind gusts as high as 30 mph
to develop by late Wednesday morning. The surface low will spread
into Michiana by Wednesday afternoon, sending a cold front through
the area and shifting winds to the west-northwest. Additional
chances for rain showers are possible with FROPA on Wednesday, but
chances look minimal especially the further south you get due to
lack of moisture. Despite this, the 25.15Z RAP shows several hundred
J/kg of CAPE paired with steep mid-level lapse rates south of I-70
Wednesday afternoon, which could be enough to potentially support an
isolated storm or two.
The front pushes to our south by Wednesday evening, though cyclonic
upper flow will persist through much of Thursday. Temperatures will
be a little cooler on Thursday, but still a solid 5-10 degrees above
normal. Mid-level heights will fall to start the day, leading to
steepening lapse rates especially across the northern half of the
state. Forecast soundings show some potential for widely scattered
showers, but chances look to be less than 15%. Mid-level heights
will then quickly rise Thursday afternoon/evening as a brief spout
of upper ridging works eastward.
A deep upper trough will swing through the Great Lakes Region late
this week into the weekend, resulting in a dip in temperatures
closer to seasonal normals for both Saturday and Sunday. A deepening
surface low associated with this system will send a pinched pressure
gradient through central Illinois on Friday. Strong southwest winds
will become common late Friday morning then shift to the west Friday
afternoon/evening. The NBM is suggesting a 30-50% chance for gusts
exceeding 35 mph by the afternoon with the 25.12Z LREF (EPS only)
advertising even higher probabilities of 40-70%. Forecast soundings
for this period display deep mixing with the top end of the momentum
transfer showing high end gusts amounts nearing 40 kts. In addition
to the winds, temperatures on Friday look to be the warmest of the
week with highs expected to be in the low 60s for most.
Temperatures climb back above normal by the start of the new week
with another brief period of upper ridging. Precipitation chances
become fuzzy in the long term with deterministic models offering
differing solutions. At this point there is at least a low chance
for precipitation by the start of the new week.
NMA
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Scattered
high cirrus will start all sites, then mid clouds around 8-10kft
will advect over the sites overnight. All HiRes models show some
precip affecting most of the sites overnight and into tomorrow
early morning. PIA and BMI will be closest to the main support for
the next system, so will have PROB30 overnight for each site. The
chance of precip at SPI, DEC, & CMI will be smaller, so going with
VCSH. Cigs will be around 8-10kft with the showers. The warm air
advection precip will push out by mid morning, but then late
morning another boundary will move in, resulting in VCSH for all
sites. This period of precip will be brief and be done by late
morning into around noon. Mid clouds around 12-15kft are expected
in the afternoon. Winds will be light and variable this evening,
then become south overnight, then southwest ahead of the boundary,
followed by westerly after the boundary and precip moves through.
Wind speeds will be 10kts of less overnight, but then increase
with gusts of 20-24kts in the morning and afternoon.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
935 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming trend continues with highs in the 50s to mid 60s tomorrow
- Rain chances return tomorrow and continue into Thursday
- Slight chance of thunder for South Central Indiana tomorrow
evening
- Breezy conditions at times late this week, particularly Friday,
when gusts of 35-40 MPH appear likely.
- Other than a cooldown around Sunday, temperatures will be near
normal to above normal Thursday into next week.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
A surface ridge over the area, very dry boundary layer, and mostly
clear skies per obs has allowed temperatures to quickly drop into
the 30s and 40s this evening. However, Hi-Res soundings and
satellite suggest mid and high clouds will start moving in overnight
in the fast WNW flow aloft. This should help limit diurnal cooling
late overnight. Look for temperatures to range from the low to mid
30s.
Quiet weather conditions are expected through the night due to
weak surface ridging, but there is a low chance light rain moves in
just before daybreak across NW counties as a low pressure system
approaches. A weak pressure gradient will keep winds light and
variable early tonight. A wind shift to southerly is then expected
late with flow increasing slightly ahead of the aforementioned
disturbance.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
A spring-like pattern continues this week for Central Indiana with
above normal temperatures and even a slight threat for a rumble of
thunder tomorrow evening.
This evening and tonight...
High pressure is the dominant weather influence across the region
today as the high is centered right over Missouri. Satellite imagery
shows clear skies over the majority of the Midwest as a very dry
airmass is currently in place. IND ACARs soundings today have
revealed low level temperatures a few degrees warmer than what the
RAP suggests; so have raised max temperatures for this
afternoon/evening into the lower 60s along and south of the I-70
corridor.
Surface high pressure slides eastward tonight over the state
resulting in winds dropping to near calm for a brief period.
Temperatures may fall quite fast right after sunset as conditions
will be pretty good for radiational cooling. Mid to high clouds
begin moving in around and after midnight ahead of the next weather
system approaching from the Northern Plains. These clouds may inhibit
temperatures from further falling during the latter part of the
night; however with such a dry airmass in place and light winds,
expect widespread mid 30s for overnight lows. Potential is there for
far eastern and northeastern portions of the forecast area to hit
the freezing mark as clouds may hold off a bit longer in those
areas.
Tomorrow...
A weak 1007mb area of low pressure dives into the southern Great
Lakes tomorrow placing much of Indiana within the warm sector ahead
of a trailing cold front. Winds turn southerly during the predawn
hours then increase during the afternoon as low level mixing help
bring down higher gusts from the 40kt LLJ toward the surface.
Despite an increase in cloud cover, strong warm air advection, steep
low level lapse rates, and low level mixing will aid in highs
ranging from the mid 60s across South Central Indiana to the upper
50s across North Central Indiana. While the system is largely
moisture starved, locations across North Central Indiana from
Lafayette to Kokomo to Muncie and points north likely will see
higher shower activity due to better forcing near the area of low
pressure, and consequently cooler highs.
Further south around the I-70 corridor and points south, dry low to
mid level air will likely prevent much shower or convective activity
until the time of FROPA during peak heating of the day when any
capping is broken. Guidance continues to show a drier trend for
tomorrow afternoon, so have gone ahead and lowered PoPs to around 30
for the southern 2/3 of the area. Across the far south, there may be
just enough instability to support an isolated lightning threat if
convection can get going right along the front. With the cap likely
breaking in this region, hi-res guidance is suggesting enough CAPE
to support the lightning threat in addition to dew points
potentially reaching 50 and low level shear of 20-30 kts. This
threat will likely be very isolated, so have only added a 15 percent
chance of thunder for far south central Indiana from 21-00z
tomorrow. Many areas may remain dry or receive a trace or less of
rainfall tomorrow. Those few areas that do get a heavier shower and
areas across the far north could get upwards of a tenth of an inch
or more of rainfall.
&&
.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
Showers along a cold front associated with weak surface low pressure
will be on their way out of the area on Wednesday evening, though
the broad upper trough accompanying the surface system will take
more time to exit the region.
A secondary shortwave will pass through the area on Thursday, with
steep lapse rates and enough lingering moisture to merit a slight
chance of showers or chance of sprinkles during the afternoon hours.
The aforementioned steep lapse rates will also promote breezy
conditions, with gusts of 25-30 MPH likely.
Another clipper-type system will pass through the Great Lakes Friday
into Saturday, though far enough north that the most likely impact
will be windy conditions, primarily Friday, owing to a potent
surface pressure gradient and deeply mixed PBL potentially tapping
into 40+ KT flow aloft. Gusts to 40 MPH are likely, with locally
higher gusts possible - if profiles continue to suggest deeper
mixing, will need to keep an eye on Friday for possible wind
headlines.
Largely dry weather is expected Thursday night into the weekend,
though some uncertainty will exist depending upon the track of the
aforementioned late week clipper. The next chance for precipitation
will come early next work week, though guidance differences are
major, which will largely cap PoPs at chance. Euro depicts a very
strong low pressure system developing and pivoting into the Great
Lakes, potentially putting a severe weather risk on the table
somewhere in the Ohio or Tennessee valleys, however the GFS is far,
far different and weaker with this system, shuttling it to the East
Coast before stronger development occurs. Will have to monitor as
the period goes on for convergence in solutions.
Temperatures will be up and down during the period, starting out
warm at the end of the work week, dropping back into the 30s and 40s
for the weekend, then climbing again early next week, though
obviously guidance differences will have a lot to say about that.
Made some adjustments early on, then trended more toward straight
NBM input with time given the inconsistencies.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 631 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR ceilings and or visibilities are possible in rain showers
after 18z Wednesday
- Winds will switch to the south and southwest after 10z Wednesday
and gust to near 25 knots after 15z.
Discussion:
A warm front will move through the terminals Wednesday morning
quickly followed by a cold front Wednesday afternoon. Scattered
showers with MVFR flying conditions at times will develop along and
ahead of the cold front. Otherwise, light northwest winds this
evening will shift to the south and southwest ahead of the cold
front with gusts to near 25 knots possible Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...MK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
843 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance of showers (40-50%) overnight/Wednesday morning with a
low chance (10%) for a thunderstorms. A few showers my linger
Wednesday afternoon/evening.
- Strong and gusty southwest winds are expected on Friday, with
gusts possibly reaching 40 to 45 mph or stronger from the late
morning through the mid afternoon.
- Temperatures will again warm to well above normal on Friday,
but then cool to below normal through the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
The forecast appears to be on track.
A recent hand surface analysis revealed an area of low pressure
along the Kansas/Nebraska/Iowa borders along a cold front
originating from a surface low passing through southern
Manitoba. Water vapor imagery depicts a slightly more chaotic
scene, with a broad upper-level trough evident across the
central US with embedded shortwaves within. Several areas of
disorganized showers extend along and ahead of the cold front
from the eastern Dakotas through northern Kansas, each
apparently tied to individual shortwaves embedded within the
trough aloft. At this point, the strongest embedded shortwave is
near the Iowa and Minnesota borders.
Over the next 3 to 6 hours, showers should increase in coverage
across Iowa as the parent shortwave translates eastward, and
move over northern Illinois and eventually northwestern Indiana
from about 3 AM to 9 AM. With steep mid-level lapse rates
accompanying the shortwave (~8.5 K/km above 850mb, per the 00Z
OAX RAOB), a strike of lightning or two and even an isolated
instance of pea size hail would not be surprising with the
showers. In all, tomorrow morning should not be a washout in
spite of the need for a rain jacket.
Curiously, 18Z and incoming 00Z guidance (most notably
including the HRRR and NAM) depict the development of a
mesoscale gravity wave across Iowa overnight as showers expand
in coverage. Such development of a gravity wave would likely
related to a pocket of dry low-level air beneath cloud/shower
bases as well as steep mid-level lapse rates to support
convective precipitation rates, altogether to afford efficient
development of a surface cold pool and associated meso-high.
Assuming a gravity wave does develop as depicted, a period of
gusty southerly winds may develop between the leading surface
mesohigh and synoptic low pressure couplet somewhere in the
general vicinity. HRRR guidance has been the most bullish
showing a gravity wave scenario, with run after run resolving
30-40 mph wind gusts between daybreak and noon tomorrow near and
south of I-80. At this point, forecast confidence in such an
event occurring is pretty darn low (given an apparent dependence
on how showers evolve upstream overnight). With that said, will
brief the incoming mid shift to keep an eye on pressure trends
across Iowa for signs of a developing gravity wave.
One other thing - mostly clear skies have allowed for
temperatures to fall quickly this evening with both Rockford
and Aurora already near the freezing mark. As showers arrive
overnight, there may very well be a brief period of icing before
temperatures rise into the mid 30s by daybreak. Forecast
confidence on the icing threat is quite low, but figured it was
worth a mention just in case.
Updated products (mainly cosmetic changes to the gridded
database) will be out soon.
Borchardt
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
Through Wednesday Night:
An area of low pressure will move southeast from the northern
Plains across the area overnight into Wednesday morning, bringing
a chance for showers. There does remain uncertainty for precip
coverage with many of the models suggesting coverage may remain
isolated. Opted to maintain current pops which are generally in
the 40-60% range and centered in the 09z-15z time period. Once
this morning activity moves east, the rest of the day may be
mainly precip free with a low chance for additional showers in
the late afternoon early evening, as the surface low moves east
of the area and winds shift around to the northwest. Slight
chance pops for this time period seem on track for now. As for
thunder chances overnight/Wednesday morning, opted to keep them
out of the forecast. While an isolated thunderstorm is possible,
coverage will be low and duration will likely be short with
instability rather meager. If trends later this evening suggest
a better lightning potential, slight chance t-storm mention can
be added with later forecasts.
West/northwest winds will steadily increase on the backside of
the departing low pressure Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
evening with gusts into the mid 20 mph range possible,
especially along/south of I-80, based on the current track of
the low. These winds will slowly diminish Wednesday night.
Low temps tonight may dip into the mid 30s this evening and then
become steady or slowly rise overnight, though lows in the upper
30s might be more common tonight. Highs on Wednesday will be a
bit tricky and dependent on the amount of sunshine and speed of
the colder air spreading in during the afternoon. High temps
around 50 north to perhaps upper 50s south look on track for
now. cms
Thursday through Tuesday:
A secondary cold front/trough passage on Thursday morning will
shift winds to breezy northwesterly and bring a more noteworthy
surge of cold air advection at 850 mb for the afternoon. The mild
start to the day and progged 925 mb temps at peak daytime mixing
will result in cooler but still above normal highs in the mid 40s
to near/around 50F, mildest south of I-80. While a few sprinkles
out of the cold advection strato-Cu can`t be ruled out on Thursday,
the latest ensemble PoPs were too low to warrant any changes from
the NBM`s dry forecast. A relatively cool interlude Thursday night
from weak surface ridging will then be followed by a windy and
unseasonably mild Friday.
Deep surface low pressure of about 990 mb or a bit less will shift
east-southeast across upper Michigan, spurring robust pressure
falls across our area (~10-15 mb/6 hours), peaking in the early
to mid afternoon. With relatively low dew points, prominent
mixing, and 925 mb temps approaching +10C, high temps will likely
reach well into the 50s to around 60F/low 60s, warmest generally
south of I-80. The pressure falls, stout southwesterly momentum
aloft (40-50 kt flow in 900-800 mb layer), and deep mixing should
compensate for the warm advection pattern to yield gusts into the
40-45 mph range, if not stronger. Recent forecast soundings and
ensemble probabilistic data suggest some potential for needing a
Wind Advisory in at least portions of our area, so we will message
a limited non-thunderstorm wind risk in the HWO.
Behind the cold front passage Friday afternoon, there may be an
uptick in west-northwest winds, though guidance varies on the
magnitude of this. We`ll also need to keep a close eye for
elevated fire weather conditions Friday afternoon, particularly
if winds perform or overperform and dew points under-perform,
resulting in lower than the current 35-45% minimum RH forecast. In
addition, 10-hour fuels may become sufficiently dry.
For the start of meteorological spring on late Friday night into
Saturday, we will temporarily return to a more winter-like air
mass, as troughing deepens into northeast North America. Below
normal highs (30s to around 40F) are expected Saturday-Sunday,
along with a chilly Saturday night (teens to lower 20s) with
surface high pressure overhead. We can`t rule out that some CAA
stratocumulus squeezes out flurries on Saturday.
On Monday and Tuesday, we`ll then quickly moderate back to above
normal, along with a return of rain/shower chances, particularly
on Tuesday. In the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, ensemble guidance
is hinting at an ejection of a stronger shortwave trough from the
Plains, which could result in a deep surface cyclone somewhere
over the region. The spectrum of plausible outcomes is quite
large, though in the event a deepening low tracks over the area,
we`ll have to monitor for the possibility of convection, some of
which may be organized.
Castro/Kluber
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
Forecast concerns for the terminals...
- Period of rain showers late tonight into Wednesday morning
- East-southeasterly winds Wednesday morning becoming westerly
Wednesday afternoon with gusts of 20-25 kts
- Lowering ceilings Wednesday afternoon followed by a chance for
light rain and/or drizzle Wednesday evening
Generally quiet weather is expected this evening as a surface
high continues to pivot through the area. Therefore, expect
gradually increasing VFR clouds this evening with light
northwest winds becoming easterly after 03z this evening. The
exception however; will be at ORD and MDW where a weak lake
breeze will move through the terminals within the next hour or
so resulting in the easterly wind shift sooner.
An shortwave disturbance will begin to pivot into the Great
Lakes after midnight and bring with it a period of rain showers.
Given the low-level dry air, it seems that showers will
initially begin as virga but should transition to rain by 08z at
RFD and after 09z at the Chicago area terminals. While the rain
may lead to some minor visibility reductions (around 6SM) no
major impacts are expected, though there is a low chance (<10%)
for an isolated rumble of thunder around daybreak Wednesday
morning as a plume of instability slides overhead.
The initial shortwave disturbance will begin to shift east of
the terminals Wednesday morning allowing the system`s dry slot
to pivot overhead and offer a break from the rain. During this
time the surface low is expected to move through the terminals
resulting in a period of variable winds and gradually lowering
ceilings. Wind directions ahead of the low should maintain a
mostly east-southeasterly component, but directions will become
westerly and eventually northwesterly around midday as the low
exits. Speed wise, winds should remain around 10-12 kts
Wednesday morning before increasing Wednesday afternoon where
gusts of 20-25 kts are expected.
Ceilings will gradually become MVFR as the surface low passes
through the terminals and look to remain as such through the
rest of the forecast period. Additionally, there is also a
potential for another period of precipitation Wednesday evening
as a secondary shortwave pivots overhead. Confidence on this
second period of precipitation is a bit lower, however; as
forecast soundings show the moisture depths to only be around
5000-7000 ft deep which means coverage and intensity may be
limited. That said, think that precipitation may be more in the
form of light rain and/or drizzle if it occurs. For now have
decided to handle the light rain/drizzle with a PROB30 at the
30-hour TAF sites since precipitation looks to get underway
around 00z Wednesday evening. So while the other TAF sites do
not have a formal mention for this potential, a consideration
will be made to add it with the 06z TAFs.
Yack
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/chicago
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
528 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 509 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
- Elevated fire weather conditions increase after Saturday, and
peak on Tuesday, especially west of the Pecos, as 20-ft winds
increase in critical relative humidity.
- High winds are possible Wednesday night/Thursday morning through
Guadalupe Pass.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 145 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
Heights decrease tonight into tomorrow as a shortwave trough begins
to flatten out the weak ridging over the region. Nevertheless,
overnight lows remain fairly warm tonight, with most locations
bottoming out in the 40s or even low 50s (especially in the terrain
or near the Rio Grande) as southerly winds persist.
The surface thermal ridge over the region (which was evident both
Monday and Tuesday) remains in place tomorrow, allowing much of the
area to top out in the upper 70s and low 80s Wednesday afternoon.
The exception will be the northern Permian Basin. A cold front will
enter this area by tomorrow morning (around 12-15Z, according to the
RAP and NAM models). The cold air advection associated with the
front will stymie diurnal warming here, keeping highs in the 60s and
low 70s. The front will continue to push south through the
afternoon, though it appears the coolest air will lag a bit behind
the northeasterly wind shift due to the stubborn thermal ridge.
Wednesday night`s minimum temperatures are expected to be a bit
cooler than Tuesday night`s. Most locations will see temperatures
drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s as cooler air continues to
push south. Increasing northeast winds behind the front lends
increasing confidence (50-70%) to strong gap winds occurring in the
Guadalupe Pass Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A High Wind
Watch remains in place for this area, though this will likely (60-
80% confidence) be upgraded to a warning in future forecast
packages. Meanwhile, just enough lift and moisture may exist in far
northwest Lea and Eddy Counties to allow for some light showers to
occur, though confidence in this is very low (< 15% chance).
Sprang
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
Despite upper-level ridging forecast to cover the western CONUS,
Thursday looks to be the coldest day this forecast as CAA continues
behind a cold front set to intrude upon the area Wednesday. High
post-frontal gap winds look to be ongoing Thursday morning, but
on the decrease. Despite skies scattering out in the afternoon,
highs will struggle, averaging ~ 5 F below normal.
Fortunately, this colder weather will be ephemeral as surface winds
veer back to return flow Thursday night, increasing thicknesses
Friday and resuming the warmup. This will increase through
Saturday, which looks to be the warmest day in the extended as
westerly downslope flow in the west and return flow in the east
increase ahead of an incoming trough. Highs Saturday afternoon
should rebound to a pleasant ~ 10 F above normal.
The aforementioned trough will move through the region Saturday
night, and may kick off a few showers east over the Pecos. Sadly,
QPF looks negligible.
Sunday looks to be 3-4 F cooler than Saturday as a secondary trough
makes landfall on the west coast. Leeside troughing on the Front
Range may induce a few hours of high winds in the Guadalupes.
Monday, as the trough approaches the area, these winds could
redevelop, setting up a mountain wave signature and a long-fused
high wind event through Tuesday. In this pattern, highs
Monday/Tuesday look to bump along a few degrees above normal.
Unfortunately, with all this westerly flow keeping better moisture
to the east, grids stay dry after Sunday morning. This will result
in elevated fire wx most days west of the Pecos, but this doesn`t
look too concerning until the end of the forecast period, when CIPS
analogs highlight Tuesday for consideration as westerly 20-ft
winds increases over critical RH. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Light winds
are generally from the south to southwest currently. Winds
gradually become more southwesterly and westerly tonight. A cold
front enters the region from the north early tomorrow morning,
slowly moving south through all TAF sites into the late morning
and early afternoon. Elevated wind speeds with a north to
northeast wind shift is expected behind this cold front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 46 74 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 44 73 39 62 / 0 0 10 10
Dryden 48 85 49 68 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Stockton 51 82 44 65 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 50 71 38 54 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 43 69 38 61 / 0 0 10 0
Marfa 45 79 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 46 75 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 47 75 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 42 78 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...91
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
649 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near- to well-above normal temperatures persist through early
next week.
- Light rain showers likely tonight. Amounts of a tenth of an
inch or less are expected.
- Strong winds Friday with gusts of 50 mph possible.
- A larger storm system over the central U.S. may impact the
Upper Midwest Tuesday-Wednesday. Confidence is quite low at
this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
It`s another mild day with temperatures climbing into the mid
40s to mid 50s. Patches of dense fog from this morning across
central MN have burned off and temperatures have recovered
quickly. Mid to high level clouds are beginning to increase,
with even a few fair wx cu near the MN River. The increasing
cloud cover is associated with a disturbance over SD which will
continue to head east tonight. Clusters of showers will develop
to the north and east of the system this evening. Showers will
end after the system passes through overnight. Amounts will be
light, less than a tenth of an inch. Lower stratus and some fog may
develop late tonight or Wednesday morning, particularly across
west central MN. Clouds will break up Wednesday afternoon, but
another disturbance will pass across Lake Superior Wednesday
night and cyclonic flow will bring increased cloud cover again.
A few snow showers are possible in parts of WI, but if they do
develop, we are not expecting much, or any, accumulation.
A much stronger clipper system will track from central Alberta
to the U.P. of Michigan by Friday evening. Warmer air will
advance north ahead of it and most of the area will rise to near
40 by early Friday morning. Daytime highs will depend on the
timing of the cold front sometime Friday morning, with CAA
overtaking by afternoon. A strong pressure gradient and pressure
rises in the afternoon will bring strengthening winds. Forecast
soundings from the NAM and GFS indicate max winds of 35 to 55
kts within the mixed layer depending on the time, location,
model, and mixing depth. EPS probability of wind gusts greater
than 34 kts exceeds 90 percent Friday afternoon across central
and southern MN into parts of western WI. Finally, a large 850
mb jet streak of 45-55 kts will dive across by late Friday
morning. Therefore, confidence is high we`ll need a Wind
Advisory for wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph. The jet streak and
system exit to the east by Friday evening. Combined with a
cooling of the boundary layer, gusts should subside fairly
quickly after sunset. Precipitation will be confined to northern
MN into MI, but cannot rule out a rain or snow shower near
Ladysmith. Otherwise, another dry clipper for our neck of the
woods.
A brief cool down will follow for Saturday, but that trough will
kick out Sunday and another mild airmass will overtake the
region early next week. Models still indicate a synoptic scale
system developing across the central U.S. Monday night into
Tuesday. There remains a large spread of possible solutions as
to where the system tracks and how much cold air can be tapped
into.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
Precipitation is moving in on radar, but there`s an awful lot of
dry air to overcome. We`re a little skeptic of how much low
clouds there will be in the wake of the wave given how dry the
low levels of the atmosphere currently are. RAP soundings show
pretty limited low cloud potential in MN by 18z Wednesday, so
have TAFs that are a bit more optimistic than the LAV. In WI,
this is the one location where the RAP would say MVFR stratus
could hang around much of the day, so was more pessimistic at
RNH/EAU
KMSP...There will be on/off rain chances between 4z and 12z. The
duration of rain we see during this period will be key in
determining just how much cloud cover we see going into
Wednesday. Continued to favor more of the drier RAP solution for
Wednesday
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...Chc MVFR cig. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 20-30G40kts bcmg NW.
SAT...VFR. Wind NNW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...MPG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
654 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A wintry mix of wet snow and rain late tonight into Wednesday
morning is possible (20-40% chance) for areas along the state line
and south-central.
- Weak clipper system and flow lake effect will bring 1-4 inches of
snow to the NW wind belts Thursday/Thursday night.
- A stronger clipper system is expected to bring a swath of
accumulating snow Friday with lake effect snow following Friday
night. Probability of exceeding 4 inches Friday/Friday night is 30-
50%, 8 inches 0-20%, highest north and east.
- Snow combined with windy conditions could lead to significantly
reduced visibility and difficult travel conditions along the Lake
Superior shoreline and particularly the Keweenaw Friday and Friday
night.
- Snow ends for the weekend with colder than normal temps returning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
Northwest flow aloft is evident per RAP analysis and GOES Water
Vapor imagery. Within this flow, a couple waves can be observed,
with the two of note organizing in western North Dakota and another
further north in Alberta/Saskatchewan. Downstream into the Upper
Great Lakes, lingering cloud cover has been observed, as has precip
associated with this morning`s shortwave. Temperatures under the
cloud canopy have mostly remained in the 30s above freezing save for
parts of Menominee County which has largely been in the low 40s so
far today. For the remainder of afternoon, some additional light
precip, mainly snow or rain will be possible across north-
central/Keweenaw. Additionally, some warming is possible, but
temperatures appear to more or less, remain as is before sunset.
Focus tonight shifts to the two upstream waves that are expected to
continue organizing and press southeastward. For the southern low,
hourly CAM and 12z medium range guidance has depicted a southward
trend in the position of this system. The growing consensus is
for the low to press as far south as Iowa while its precip
shield along its northern flank extends into northern Wisconsin
late tonight and Wednesday morning. There are still some
outliers, suggesting precip could extend north over the
stateline for the morning commute. Subfreezing temperatures are
expected overnight as is an airmass cold enough for any precip
to fall as snow. If precip does extend into the forecast area
late tonight/early Wednesday, there could be some hazardous road
conditions for the morning commute due to the combination of
daytime snowmelt refreezing and light, wet snow on top.
There is also a southward trend to the second wave as well, which
guidance now suggests will move near Thunder Bay Wednesday morning,
then track along Lake Superior`s northern lakeshore through the day.
Recent CAM guidance, namely the HRRR and RAP, suggest the low`s cold
front could press into the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon. The
airmass ahead of the front looks to support ~-2 to -4C 850mb temps,
and model soundings suggest high DGZ positioning and shallow above
freezing layers near the surface. This suggests ptype associated
with any scattered showers that develop should fall mainly as wet
snow with rain mixing in. Daytime highs on Wednesday should climb
into the upper 30s to low 40s. Dewpoints will climb above freezing,
so some additional snow melt is expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
Upper air pattern to end the week, on average, will be characterized
by a deep cutoff low near northern Quebec and ridging over much of
the northwestern quadrant of the CONUS and southwestern Alaska. A
couple of shortwave troughs will ride the interface between these
features to bring us sensible weather Thursday and Friday. Following
the latter system, a deeper trough will carve out over the Great
Lakes connecting with the northern Quebec low. Ridging builds back
in over the Great Lakes for early next week, with a trough emerging
off the Plains for the middle of the week.
Will have to watch for some nuisance patches of dz/fzdz Wednesday
night as low-level moisture lingers before deeper moisture arrives
coincident with the clipper. Thursday will be one more seasonably
mild day as it will take some time for the warm airmass to be
displaced. Chance PoPs over most of the region with likelies in the
NW wind belts as lake effect processes commence with 850 mb temps
falling below -10C by later in the day. Marginal thermodynamics and
limited LES period should limit accums to 1-4" here. LES should wrap
up fairly quickly early Thursday night as brief surface ridging
builds in.
The next clipper is hot on its heels with isentropic lift precip
possibly breaking out as early as late Thursday night. This is a
compact and vigorous system and models are still struggling with the
placement of the attendant surface features. The track of the low
will ultimately determine impacts over the local area, with a swath
of moderate to possibly heavy snow likely just north of the track.
Notably, the 12Z ECMWF/EPS mean, which had been relatively
consistent with a track mainly north of the UP, has shifted south
such that it bisects the UP from NW to SE. GEFS/GEPS have a more
favorable track for accumulating snow keeping the low center along
or just south of the state line. Some rain is possible south of the
low track, and would be most likely Friday near the WI border
counties. Multi-model means have the low in the mid to low 990s,
reflecting the potential strength of the low. No matter which track
ultimately verifies, lake effect snow will follow the system Friday
night in the northeast to northwest wind belts with strong cold
advection bringing 850 mb temps down to -20C. Between the system
snow and LES, there`s currently about a 30-50% chance of > 4"
(advisory level), and 0-20% of greater than 8" (warning level),
highest north and east (based off the NBM). Visibilities could be
significantly reduced especially late Friday into Friday night in
snow and blowing snow over the Lake Superior shorelines and Keweenaw
with a 40-60% chance of gusts exceeding 35 mph. Will heighten
wording in key messages/HWO for now.
Aside from some lingering LES Saturday, expect a mainly quiet and
seasonably cold weekend as the aforementioned trough deepens over
the Great Lakes. This trough shifts east by Monday with return flow
quickly boosting highs back above normal. Deterministic models and
ensembles continue to highlight the Tuesday/Wednesday period for
troughing to potentially lift from the Rockies into the Great Lakes,
potentially resulting in an impactful weather system. Confidence is
quite low at this time, with the probability of a warning-level
winter storm impacting the UP currently around 10-20%. Cluster
analysis shows that this scenario is tied to a more amplified ridge
shifting from the central to eastern US, allowing the approaching
trough to amplify as it lifts into the Great Lakes. Interested
parties should continue to monitor this time frame.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 654 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
VFR conditions will continue at all sites until late Wed afternoon
when a possibility of rain and snow moves through and moves in MVFR
cigs. SAW will briefly have some IFR cigs early this evening with
some upslope flow off Lake Superior.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
Winds should remain below 20 kt through Wednesday night. The first
in a pair of clippers arrives Thursday, with NW winds increasing to
near 30 kt late Thursday. There is a 30-50% chance for winds to
briefly hit gale force. A stronger system is expected Friday into
Friday night. There is about a 60% chance of seeing SE gales ahead
of the system on Friday, and 80% as winds turn northerly behind the
system Friday night (up to 40 kt). Moderate to heavy freezing spray
is also expected. Winds gradually diminish Saturday, becoming less
than 20 kt Saturday night.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...07
MARINE...Thompson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1030 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather into Wednesday. Spring like afternoon Wednesday.
Showers expected with a cold front Wednesday night into
Thursday. Upslope snow Thursday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1027 PM Tuesday...
Lowered Wednesday`s high temperatures a few degrees as models
are starting to get more aggressive with cloud cover tomorrow
afternoon, albeit scattered cloud cover. Broken to overcast
skies look to move in early Wednesday evening ahead of our next
rainfall.
As of 816 PM Tuesday...
Inverted trough overhead will allow for some low-level clouds to
across the northeastern mountains overnight. As the sun has set,
most of the area is decoupling and temperatures are starting to
drop swiftly. Thinking some patchy river valley fog is possible
early in the morning as dew point depressions are filled.
Allowed some into the forecast just before sunrise to slightly
after, but not expecting any fog to be very dense or
restrictive.
Did raise high temperatures and lower dew points by about 3-5
degrees each across the area for tomorrow. Guidance is trending
upward and a warm front is projected to bring decent
southwesterly flow to the area tomorrow afternoon. RH values
will likely be in the 30s and upper 20s across the area during
peak heating tomorrow afternoon. Pair these dew points with
breezy, dry southwest flow and elevated fire danger will exist.
One caveat is that cloud cover ahead of the warm front may
hinder high temperatures from reaching what they are projected,
which would mitigate fire weather concerns. HRRR and NAM3k show
60-80% cloud cover across the forecast by 3 PM.
As of 100 PM Tuesday...
Very few clouds left across the sky with some more coming into
the area during the overnight hours. This may suppress some
radiational cooling along with some elevated surface wind,
however if places do decouple there may be some patchy fog,
especially in the river valleys. There will still be enough
cooling to drop temperatures down to the low to mid 30s across
the entire area even along the mountains. Even though clouds
fill in overnight there will not be any precipitation in the
near term although chances do enter the area by tomorrow
evening. Daytime temperatures tomorrow will soar up toward what
they were today, maybe slightly higher although cloud coverage
will play a big role in determining whether or not there is more
sunshine by the afternoon. Winds will stay somewhat elevated
and we are in a general risk for thunderstorms tomorrow evening
ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the area in the next
period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...
Rain associated with the front will start to push into our SE
Ohio counties later Wednesday evening, and spread east across
the rest of the CWA through the overnight hours. While we can`t
entirely rule out any stronger cells along the front having a
bit of lightning, the overnight passage of the front will work
against that possibility. Precip potential shifts to the
mountains Thursday morning, with clearing forecast for the
western part of the CWA. Precip with the front will generally be
a third of an inch or less for most of the area.
During the later afternoon hours, the lagging upper-level
trough approaching from the west will start to move over the
region, and more showers will develop with that passage. The
bulk of this will fall Thursday night, but upslope showers may
linger in and near the mountains through Friday morning before
some low- level dry air arrives and shifting winds cut off the
upslope component. Cold low-level air filtering in behind the
front and dropping heights aloft will promote a change to snow
showers Thursday evening and night, especially in the higher
terrain, though the tail end of low-elevation precip could also
be some snow showers or flurries. Right now, the forecast is
showing 1-4 inches of snow for the high elevation zones of
Pocahontas, Webster, and Randolph counties, with 1.5 inches or
less for the surrounding lower elevation zones, and likely
little to no accumulating snow below 2000 feet.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...
Models show another cold front pushing through on Saturday.
Looking at the bulk of deterministic and ensemble guidance, this
front still appears likely to be moisture-starved, so any
precipitation should be light, with best chances for measurable
precip in the northern part of the CWA and higher elevations.
Colder air will move into the area behind the front Saturday
night into Sunday, and this does look a bit more on the robust
side, with Saturday low-elevation highs in the low to mid-50s
yielding to Sunday high temps from the mid-30s to lower 40s.
While most of Sunday into Monday should be dry under high
pressure, the models start to have serious strength, timing, and
placement differences with the next system for Tuesday or
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 652 PM Tuesday...
VFR conditions expected through most of the period as afternoon mid-
level clouds lift and scatter out. Westerly winds will be breezy
until they become light to calm across the lowlands by about
~03z. A trough overhead could allow for some lower clouds to
form across the mountains overnight with some MVFR conditions
possible at BKW and EKN.
Elsewhere, patchy valley fog is possible later on overnight as
locations decouple. MVFR restrictions are possible with more
dense areas of fog. VFR returns ~13z Wednesday with breezy
SW`rly winds picking up. A front will then bring rain and lower
ceilings Wednesday night.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR possible at BKW and EKN.
Restrictions due to fog formation may vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 02/26/25
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EST 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M H H
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible at times in precipitation Wednesday
night through Friday morning.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
SVC AUTOMATED WX BROADCAST SYSTEM NOT AVAILABLE AT KEKN, THEREFORE
NO OBS ARE TRANSMITTING AT THIS TIME. A NOTAM HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE MISSING OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ/LTC
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...LTC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
931 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Early spring weather continues this afternoon, followed by a
weak cold front and possible light rain showers overnight.
- Above normal temperatures are on tap for the remainder of the
week with highs generally in the low 60s. Friday is the
warmest afternoon as highs once again reach the low 70s.
- Rain chances return early next week.
&&
.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 931 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
Models are showing a corridor of downdraft CAPE over 1000 J/kg
just ahead of the surface front. This combined with some
evaporative cooling as rain falls through the dry low levels
may allow for some sporadic wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph at the
surface. The last couple runs of the HRRR keep wind gusts below
severe levels and the downdraft CAPE is progged to weaken as the
evening progresses. So will need to keep an eye on the leading
edge of the shower activity for some limited gusty winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
Active northerly troughing pattern aloft persists this week with a
shortwave trough progged to traverse the northern plains this
evening. A stronger upper trough upstream trails southeast into the
central plains by tomorrow, behind a weak cold front sweeping
southeast overnight. Winds around 10 to 15 mph sustained shift to
the northwest on Wednesday morning, increasing from 15 to 20 mph
tomorrow afternoon as the secondary wave passes through. Most
probable area for measurable rainfall this evening (less than a
tenth of an inch)is far north near the Nebraska border. Forecast
soundings show an abundant amount of dry air below 12 kft so any
light showers exhibited by the RAP, NAMNest and HRRR are not likely
to reach the surface.
Gusty northwest winds are to follow on Wednesday behind the front
with speeds from 15 to 20 mph. Highs are somewhat cooler, albeit
still above normal, around 60 degrees as skies become clear by mid
day. Quieter weather returns for the remaining work week as dry
northwest flow aloft resumes through Friday. An upper trough over
the Great Lakes region pushes another weak, dry cold front through
late Friday. Thermal ridging coming off the higher terrain increases
h85 temps to near 12C, mixing to the sfc with highs in the low 70s
in vicinity of the frontal boundary.
For the weekend, a closed upper low is in similar agreement between
ensembles of entering off the CO Rockies on Sunday, lifting a swath
of QPF in the form of light rain into the central plains by Sunday
evening. Amounts are too uncertain to pinpoint at this time, however
based on the low and mid level westerly winds, there does not appear
to be substantial cold air in its wake to warrant any concern for
freezing precip or below normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 439 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025
VFR conditions are forecast to persist. Shortwave energy passing
by overnight is expected to increase mid level clouds, but dry
air below 700MB is expected to limit precip to some sprinkles.
Forecast soundings show an increasing low level jet ahead of the
wave. Turbulent mixing may limit LLWS chances. If sfc winds
decouple, will add some wind shear into the forecast ahead of
a surface front expected to push south of the terminals before
12Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Wolters
DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Wolters