Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/25/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
902 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low to moderate light rain chances (20 to 40 percent) on
Tuesday. A little light freezing rain possible in some
locations Tuesday morning.
- Well above average temperatures continue through the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
For the late evening update, we introduced some patchy fog to
areas mainly north and east of the Missouri River. Relied
heavily on a time lagged RAP for areal placement. With
diminishing winds and plenty of snowmelt earlier this afternoon,
fog could end up a bit more widespread than currently
anticipated. Otherwise, just adjusted sky cover and winds
through the overnight with some of the latest guidance.
UPDATE
Issued at 548 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
Rain has moved out of the area to the southeast with some lower
clouds hanging around southern North Dakota. Winds have also
decreased significantly across the southwest, so we will let the
Wind Advisory expire on time at 00z. Clouds will diminish
through the night before increasing again Tuesday morning. No
major changes were needed for this update. Just blended in the
latest observations to the going forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
Current surface analysis places low/trough dropping through
eastern South Dakota, while high remains over the Rockies. Gusty
winds continue in the pressure gradient between the systems
over southwest North Dakota. Upper level analysis places
west/northwest flow over the area with a few weak waves noted in
the flow. One of the more notable ones in conjunction with the
surface low produced some light rain which passes from northwest
to south central North Dakota, and is now noted mainly over the
southern James RIver Valley.
For this afternoon into tonight, rain will continue its gradual
departure as the system slides off to the southeast. In addition,
winds will be on the decrease late this afternoon into this
evening, leading to a quiet night over the area.
Tuesday will see the next clipper push through the area, albeit
temperatures will still be notably above average. Low to
moderate chances for light rain will spread through the area,
with the potential for a little light freezing rain in the
morning over a few locations, though this would be very limited.
Winds may become a bit breezy, most notably over the southwest.
Quiet and very mild weather then continues for Wednesday and
Thursday with northwesterly flow aloft. Next chances for a
little light snow show up on Friday as a modest short wave and
its affiliated low drop through the upper Midwest, but for now
chances are just for our northeastern areas. This also will
bring somewhat cooler temperatures going into Saturday, though
still well above average, with a temperature rebound for Sunday
as an upper ridge tries to build back in.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
Some patchy MVFR ceilings may hang on across the southwest and
south central over the next hour or two before moving out of
the area. Another area of MVFR or low VFR ceilings may move into
the north Wednesday afternoon, potentially impacting KXWA and
KMOT. Additionally, expect low chances for some light rain at
KDIK mid to late Wednesday morning. Winds will generally be
light out of the west.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...ZH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
520 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
...Updated for 00z Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures for forecast to continue through the
weekend.
- A couple of storm systems look to bring chances (20-50%) of
light precipitation, in the form of rain, to our region
tonight and again Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
Shortwave moving southeast along the ridge this afternoon will
bring chances for precip this evening. Strong narrow moisture
advection is forecast to move into the area from the west at the
same time as the wave approaches. CAMs, especially the 12z HRRR
from today and yesterday has a discombobulated line of showers
and even storms. This activity should move through the area from
01z through 06z Tuesday. Do not seen any strong storms with
this, however lightning does seem possible. SPC has this area in
a 10% thunder risk, so added schc thunder timed to the arrival
of this wave. Overall light QPF and not all that impactful
precip is possible.
Tomorrow more of the same. Well above average temperatures with
lighter winds and some sunny skies. Highs in the 50s look likely.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
An active pattern is forecast through Friday before quiet
weather is expected over the upcoming weekend. Broad low
pressure is forecast to sit over southeastern Canada, northeast
US and Great Lakes with high pressure over the West Coast
through Friday. This places eastern Iowa, northwest
Illinois,and far northeast Missouri on the southern edge of
northwest flow aloft. There is a shortwave trough roughly every
24 hours Tuesday night through Friday night. The first shortwave
arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday and has the best chance of
bringing light rain to the area but this is only a 30 to 40
percent chance. Synoptic models have weak most unstable CAPE
across the Upper Midwest but model soundings do not show very
steep mid level lapse rates so left thunder out to the forecast
for Tuesday night. There is not much moisture for this storm
system to work with and any rainfall amounts will be very light
with any one location receiving a tenth of an inch or less if
rain does occur. At this time, the remainder of the systems are
forecast to pass to our north resulting in a dry forecast.
Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal Wednesday
through Friday. Friday may be the warmest day of the period with
high temperatures in the 50s area wide with the lower 60s
possible in far northeast Missouri.
In the wake of a shortwave Friday night, surface high pressure
builds into the region with quiet weather expected through the
weekend. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to slightly
above normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
Predominantly VFR conditions during the period. Early on in the
TAF period some sprinkles or very light rain is possible with
no impacts to visibility or ceilings. Late this evening and
overnight (03z-09z) there is a chance for showers with a rumble
of thunder possible. Brief MVFR conditions are possible in the
showers. Winds will be light around 10 kt or less, but the
direction will fluctuate at times between S to NW with the
passage of a couple of weak wind shifts tonight and surface high
pressure building in on Tuesday.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...McClure
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
621 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of dense fog are likely tonight and tomorrow morning for
areas along and east of I-35.
- A warm and sunny week is on tap for much of the area, with highs
mostly in the 60s and 70s and a few readings in the low 80s.
- There is a low chance (20-30%) for showers east of I-35
Wednesday night. Rain chances then return Sunday into early
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No major changes were made to forecast with this evening`s update.
The biggest forecast storyline will be the development of fog and
low ceilings across East Texas this evening that will creep toward
the I-35 corridor overnight and early tomorrow morning. There will
likely be a sharp cutoff between dense fog and basically clear
skies, similar to today, and the current dense fog advisory still
outlines where we think that line will stall during tomorrow
morning`s commute. For additional forecast details, see the
discussion below.
Bonnette
Previous Discussion:
/Today through Tuesday Night/
After the widespread dense fog earlier this morning, visible
satellite imagery and surface observations show the fog is rapidly
dissipating this hour and have gone ahead and cancelled the Dense
Fog Advisory. Once the fog and associated low clouds are
completely gone in the next hour or so, will be a beautiful and
sunny late February day across North and Central Texas with highs
in upper 60s in our east to near 80 in our west. NBM high
temperatures for today appear too low and have bumped up highs
closer to the NBM50 for this afternoon. For tonight, another round
of widespread dense fog is likely along and east of I-35 per
latest models and CAMs, and have trended forecast towards the
HRRR for fog coverage tonight. Another dense fog advisory will
likely be needed for our eastern half, with the main question
once again how far west the fog will expand. Lows for tonight will
drop into the low to mid 40s areawide, which will be slightly
warmer than we saw this morning.
After the fog tomorrow morning, another unusually warm and sunny
late February day is expected with highs a few degrees above what
we saw today with low 70s in our east to low 80s in our west.
Guidance indicates yet another round of dense fog is possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across our eastern counties,
although it does not currently appear it will be as widespread as
we saw today or will see tonight. Low level moisture will also be
on the increase with dewpoints rising into the upper 40s to low
50s, and lows for Tuesday night look to be mainly in the low 50s.
Shamburger
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 215 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/
/Wednesday Onward/
Temperature wise, the end of February and beginning of March will
be pleasant with highs in the 60s and 70s Wednesday through early
next week. Brief rain chances return Wednesday night near/east of
I-35, then rain-free weather will finish out the week before
another system arrives late this weekend.
As mentioned in the short term discussion, increased low level
moisture is expected ahead of the arrival of a weak cold front,
with dewpoints in Central and East Texas getting into the low and
mid 50s Wednesday. An upper level shortwave exiting the Intermountain
West will send the cold front towards North Texas by late afternoon,
slowly making its way through the forecast area through the
evening and overnight hours. Moisture becomes more limited above
about 850 mb, but there will likely be sufficient low level
moisture to interact with the provided lift to generate a few
showers (20-30% PoPs) across the eastern half of the region.
Latest guidance shows instability is quite limited, with any
potential for thunder ~10% or less. Thursday will be quieter
behind the front with cooler and drier air filtering in. High
temperatures will only reach the mid and upper 60s Thursday, which
will be a temporary "cool down" before it gets back into the 70s
Friday onward.
A southern stream upper level low will approach the West Coast
early in the weekend and gradually transit the Desert Southwest.
Timing inconsistencies are still the largest discrepancy with
this system heading into next week, but the best chances (still
20-30%) for precipitation are focused later in the day on Sunday.
Looking beyond this system, there is another signal for additional
rain chances in the midweek.
Gordon
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
VFR and south flow will prevail through the evening. We`ll be
watching the ceiling and vis closely as another round of LIFR
stratus and fog is expected to develop across East Texas tonight.
The main question is how far west/northwest the low ceilings and
vis will be able to develop tonight before insolation tomorrow
morning starts to erode it from west to east.
We did not change the 00Z TAFs much from the 18Zs, particularly at
the DFW, AFW, FTW, and ACT terminals. As it stands now, there is a
40% chance of LIFR ceilings or the visibility falling below 1 SM
at the DFW airport so we did not include those in the TAFs yet. At
DAL and GKY, we lowered the visibility and introduced an LIFR
ceiling since we have higher confidence (roughly 60-70%) of the
fog/stratus moving in from the SE. We did shift the timing back at
all terminals to better coincide with the most-likely timeframe
for ceiling/vis restrictions, but reasonable timing uncertainty of
a couple hours (more on the onset versus dissipation) does exist.
Conditions should improve rapidly at the TAF sites between 14-16Z
with VFR and south flow prevailing after.
Bonnette
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 47 75 53 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 20
Waco 46 77 52 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 10
Paris 43 73 49 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 30
Denton 45 74 52 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 20
McKinney 46 73 52 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 20
Dallas 47 75 53 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 20
Terrell 45 74 51 71 47 / 0 0 0 0 30
Corsicana 47 75 52 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 20
Temple 46 78 52 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 10
Mineral Wells 43 78 50 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ092>095-
103>107-119>123-134-135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
639 PM MST Mon Feb 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures expected the next 7 days, with
tomorrow the warmest day of the period.
- 15 to 20 percent chance of showers tomorrow evening; an
isolated thunderstorm is also possible.
- Windy conditions are forecast Tuesday night and through the
day Wednesday with gusts up to 25 to 35 mph at times. Some
localized 40+ mph are possible in the northwest.
- Potential for briefly critical fire weather conditions on
Friday in Colorado.
- Low confidence in precipitation chances returning Sunday
through early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM MST Mon Feb 24 2025
Added in some sprinkles for this evening across eastern Colorado and
into extreme northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. A subtle
shortwave embedded within the flow will provide the lift for this
along with an increase in 700-500mb moisture. With semi dry low
levels in place and weak lift would be surprised if there would
enough lift to result in anything more noticeable than
sprinkles.
For Tuesday afternoon/evening did add in a slight chance of thunder
wording to locales from roughly the Idalia, Colorado vicinity up
towards McCook, Nebraska. Surprisingly pretty decent signal among
numerous guidance in 500-1000 j/kg of MUCAPE being present. I was a
little skeptical at first as this was confined to roughly the area
of snowpack but with closer looking models actually had the snow
pack gone by the time the dew points increased during the afternoon.
This suggests to me that they are picking up on a moistened
boundary layer from the recent significant melting. The same
guidance that is showing this for Tuesday nailed down the
slightly higher dew points for today from yesterdays run as well
which increased my confidence as well. All of this is right
ahead of a cold front which based on recent runs of the RAP has
been speeding up in passage. Soundings do show a slight capping
inversion but if the front continues to speed up and the MUCAPE
is actually realized then some thunderstorm potential would be
in play around 3-6pm MT time frame Tuesday as the front would
supply the extra needed lift for this to occur. Convective
temperatures may also be met as well which further increases my
confidence in adding in the thunder wording even if the front is
a little slower to arrive. Severe weather however appears
unlikely with this due to the limited instability but some gusty
winds around 50 mph and small hail may be possible with the
strongest storms should they develop.
I also did increase winds behind the front as well as there is good
consensus as well between guidance of a 6-9 mb pressure rise
that should be able to mix down some of the wind of 35-45 knot
850 mb jet that will be across the area. Trended the wind
forecast towards the mean wind gust that was shown in the 12Z
HREF. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph at this time are forecast and does
run in line with the strength of the 850mb jet as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MST Mon Feb 24 2025
Upper ridge remains in control today and tomorrow with dry
conditions and much above normal temperatures. Lows will be
in the lower 30s and highs on Tuesday in the lower 70s, though
about 5-10 degrees cooler in snowpacked areas near the Colorado
and Kansas border. Tuesday will see breezy southwest winds, not
as strong as today, but still gusting over 20 mph at times.
Shortwave trough will top the ridge and dig into the central
plains Tuesday night, bring a chance for widely scattered light
rain showers. Precipitation amounts, if any, will only be a few
hundredths here and there. Might see and isolated rain/snow
shower linger into the overnight in southeast areas, but no
impacts are expected. Lows will be in the upper 20s to lower
30s.
Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday behind the associated
cold front. Highs will be in the 50s and lows Wednesday night in
the 20s with mostly sunny skies. Wednesday will be another
breezy to windy day with north winds gusting 30 to 40 mph in the
afternoon, highest in Colorado, rapidly diminishing late
Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will begin to rebound on
Thursday with the western ridge rebuilding. Highs will be in
the lower 60s and lows Thursday night mainly in the 30s. Will
see less wind on Thursday with gusts in the 20-25 mph range,
which should mitigate any fire weather concerns as afternoon
relative humidity drops into the mid and upper teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MST Mon Feb 24 2025
Will be tracking a closed low undercutting the western ridge
this period. It will move into the desert southwest on Friday,
Four Corners on Saturday and Texas panhandle on Sunday. GFS is s
slightly further north compared to the ECMWF, which would bring
a chance for rain showers on Sunday, while the ECMWF track
would keep the area dry. Model blends are dry for now. There is
a second system early next week behind the closed low, but
track and timing with that one is even less certain, but it
could also bring a chance for what looks to be mainly rain with
warm temperatures.
There is a low probability for critical fire weather conditions
on Friday. The most favorable area for the combination of low
humidity and gusty north winds will be in Colorado, but both
parameters are marginal at this time. Winds turn south over the
weekend which will increase humidity, so no further fire weather
concerns are anticipated.
Very little variation of temperatures is expected through the
long term period with no fronts of note forecast. Highs will be
in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 20s and 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM MST Mon Feb 24 2025
VFR conditions are forecast for each terminal for this TAF
period. Winds are forecast to lighten around 06 knots for the
start of the period. Winds are then forecast to become WSW
again around mid evening and remain that way through the
remainder of the period. Winds are forecast to be come breezy to
gusty during the afternoon hours Tuesday with gusts around
20-25 knots. Forecast soundings also do suggest a window for
some gusts around 30 knots for KMCK. Am watching for some light
rain showers towards the end or just after the end of this
period, will monitor through the evening and introduce into the
TAF if needed for the 06Z issuance.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
900 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain tonight, highest coverage across north central Indiana
- Warming trend continues with highs in the 50s to low 60s through
Wednesday
- Rain chances return Wednesday into Wednesday night
- Near to above normal temperatures in the 40s and 50s continue into
next weekend
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
- Light Rain chances overnight
Surface analysis late this evening shows a weak surface trough in
place from NW Indiana to Central Illinois and Central MO. This
trough was located within the westerly flow that was across Central
Indiana due to strong high pressure over the southeastern states and
deep low pressure in place entering Quebec. Radar shows an area of
light showers over southern WI/NW Illinois/ and eastern IA, pushing
southeast quickly within the flow aloft. Temperatures across Central
Indiana were in the 40s and dew points were mainly in the 30s, with
southwesterly winds.
The last few HRRR runs continue to suggest the rain to the northwest
will propagate southeast and pass across Central Indiana overnight.
Each progressive run suggests a slight trend of less areal coverage
and weaker intensity and organization. Given this weak wave, this is
not surprising. However enough confidence remains to suggest minimal
measurable amounts as this forcing quickly passes overnight. Thus
high confidence for minimal rain amount, mainly northeast of a HUF-
Bedford line. Expect to use high pops for a short duration timed
with HRRR. Minimal temperature advection in the wake of the wave
should allow temps to only fall to the middle 30s for lows. Overall,
ongoing forecast handles that well.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
Tonight.
Quiet weather is expected for much of the overnight with wind gusts
expected to gradually taper down after sunset as the near surface
lapse rates relax. A weak upper level shortwave will bring isolated
to scattered showers to north central Indiana during the overnight
hours but with much of the precipitation falling from a mid-level
stratus deck, total precipitation will be minimal. Very little
forcing is noted with this system as much of the lift is actually
below the cloud deck. Temperatures will remain mild with overnight
lows in the mid 30s.
Tuesday.
Another quiet day is expected for tomorrow with skies clearing
through the day. This clearing plus continued southwesterly flow
will allow for another seasonably warm day with highs in the mid to
upper 50s. Afternoon dewpoints are likely to end up on the lower end
of guidance with mixing up to around 4kft. Afternoon RH values
should remain in the 40-50 percent range though which combined with
the wet ground will keep any fire weather risk minimal.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 248 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
A progressive and mild pattern continues into the long term for
Central Indiana featuring brief light rain chances and temperatures
remaining at to slightly above average for this time of year.
Wednesday through Thursday...
The period begins with a warm and breezy day as the region will be
in the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system to the
north. A trailing cold front will be along the Mississippi River
during the morning, tracking eastward into Indiana by the evening.
Moisture advection ahead of the front is somewhat weak; however a 35-
40 kt low level jet will pump in sufficient moisture for increasing
clouds through the day. Despite cloudy skies, enough boundary layer
heating should take place to break the low level inversion by the
afternoon with deeper mixing likely into the low level jet. Gusts
over 25-30 mph are possible during the afternoon and evening hours.
Expecting temperatures near to just above guidance in this type of
set up with highs in the 50s to low 60s likely!
Guidance brings precipitation along and just ahead of the cold front
into the area from the late afternoon to late evening hours. Expect
scattered to numerous showers during this time with rainfall amounts
largely staying under a third of an inch.
Cloudy and damp conditions are expected to persist into Thursday
with lingering low-level moisture and another embedded wave moving
through. In addition, cold air advection will promote steepening
lapse rates during the day providing forcing for additional light
showers. Steep low level lapse rates again will promote gusts mixing
down to the surface at times, but not as strong as on Wednesday.
Gusts to 20-25 mph and highs likely in the 40s may keep feels like
temperatures in the 30s much of the day.
Friday into Next Weekend...
Additional systems are expected to pass through the region every few
days in this type of pattern bringing light rain chances and
resulting in moderate temperature swings in front of and behind
frontal boundaries.
Another moisture starved system passing north of Indiana within the
Great Lakes on Friday bringing another round of above normal
temperatures. Most of the moisture associated with this low stays to
the north leaving mainly dry and sunny conditions locally with highs
reaching the 50s.
Longer range guidance has been consistent with a brief shot of
colder weather arriving for next weekend; however recent models have
backed off on the strength and southward progression of the core of
the cold airmass. Keeping highs largely in the 40s with lows in the
20s for the weekend, right around average for this time of year and
will fine tune temperatures as the weekend approaches. High pressure
and dry air should lead to ample sunshine despite a colder
airmass...and with an increasing sun angle as March approaches,
temperatures should be able to rebound in the afternoon hours
despite colder morning lows.
A progressive pattern continues into the following week with the
potentially for stronger system to develop in the Central US. Within
this pattern, above normal temperatures should return by the
beginning of that week with a period of below normal temperatures
behind that next system.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 540 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
Impacts:
- None; Mainly VFR expected
- Brief light rain possible 05Z-10Z
Discussion:
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Small chances for
MVFR conditions are present during a brief window tonight where
light rain may cause MVFR vsbys.
A quick moving upper wave is expected to push across Central Indiana
overnight, spreading light rain showers across IND/LAF and BMG. Rain
is less likely at HUF. Cigs upstream remain well above MVFR, thus
have included only VFR cigs at this time.
In the wake of the quick moving wave on Tuesday morning, VFR
conditions will continue.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
645 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 645 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
- Areas of dense fog far SE OK tonight. Temperatures well above
normal Tuesday; above normal temperatures expected all week.
- Weak cold front on Wednesday with a chance for a few light
showers or sprinkles and slightly cooler temperatures.
- Late weekend storm system is the next chance for more
widespread precipitation.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
The HRRR did an excellent job forecasting the dense fog coverage
last night into this morning, so will lean heavily on this short-
term hi-res model for the fog forecast tonight. Trends in the
afternoon into early evening data have been toward less fog
coverage. That said, the current dense fog advisory covers the
most likely area to see dense fog toward daybreak Tuesday, far
southeast Oklahoma. Thus, will not make any changes to the going
headline, and will shrink the coverage area of fog in the grids.
No other changes needed to the forecast at this time. Updated
products out shortly.
Lacy
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
Majority of guidance favors areas of fog developing tonight and
primarily southeast of Interstate 44. Dense fog appears most
probable across SE OK where an advisory has been posted. This may
be expanded as trends are followed through the evening. Otherwise,
a quiet night expected with temps near seasonal normals.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
Temps well above normal continue on Tuesday with widespread low to
mid 70s during the afternoon. The next cold front passes late Tues
night through Wednesday. Cooler temps and gusty northerly winds
will follow the frontal passage. A few light showers may be noted
early the day with an increase in precip coverage along the
frontal zone as it exits SE OK / western AR. Any measurable
amounts will remain light.
A brief and minor cool down expected for Thursday before temps
well above normal return for Friday into the weekend. Timing of
the next storm system remains in generally good agreement with
increasing rain chances Sunday into Monday. Strength and track of
the system is more uncertain which keeps precip chances fairly low
at this time. The pattern for early to mid next week is trending
more active and unsettled across the southern tier states.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period for all
terminals. Areas of high clouds are expected at times, especially
by Monday evening. Patchy low clouds and fog may develop near KMLC
Monday morning, but at this time is expected to mostly remain
south of the area. Winds will become light and variable overnight,
favoring the south to southeast for most areas Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 38 73 45 61 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 41 73 46 69 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 41 75 49 66 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 33 73 40 61 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 39 74 47 66 / 0 0 0 20
BYV 40 71 47 63 / 0 0 0 20
MKO 39 72 46 64 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 35 70 44 60 / 0 0 0 20
F10 40 73 47 64 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 40 73 47 68 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM CST Tuesday for OKZ049-053.
AR...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06