Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/24/25

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Binghamton NY

 647 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet and seasonably mild weather expected tonight into Monday
across the region. A weak low pressure system brings a mix of
rain and some wet snow showers to the region late Monday night
into Tuesday. Another dry and mild day expected Wednesday,
before yet another weather system brings scattered rain showers
on Thursday. Turning cooler with a chance for snow showers to
end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
6 PM Update...

Removed any mention of snow showers for tonight. There may be a
flurry north of NYS Thruway, but it will not amount to not even
a dusting for accumulation.

250 PM Update

Quiet weather with no major concerns for this near term period.
This evening and tonight will feature mainly cloudy skies,
with perhaps a stray flurry across north-central NY. Clouds
eventually decrease from south to north late at night. It will
chilly, even as winds turn southerly, with lows in the upper 10s
to mid-20s...which is close to average for this time of year.

Monday will feature partly sunny skies, increasing southerly
winds and very mild temperatures. High will be 5 to perhaps 10
degrees above average; reaching the low to mid 40s for most
locations...with upper 40s in the Wyoming Valley. South winds do
reach 10-20 mph with occasional gusts to around 30 mph in the afternoon.

A weak front pushes through Monday evening into Monday night.
Dry air in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere should hold
any precipitation off until the overnight hours. There remains
uncertainty in the latest model guidance on exactly where and
when an area of precipitation will break out over the region.

Did stray from the NBM for PoPs in the 1AM to 7 AM timeframe
Tuesday, as there are indications in the latest 12z CAMS/deterministic
and 18z HRRR guidance that a rain/snow mix will develop in
parts of NE PA and the NY Southern Tier during the predawn
hours early Tuesday morning. With the inherent uncertainty,
capped PoPs in the lower end chance range at this time. However,
if the trends in the latest guidance continue there could very
well be steady rain, and some high elevation wet snow developing
between about 2-7 AM early Tuesday morning from the Binghamton
area south into NE PA.

QPF amounts look light in the latest guidance; less than a
tenth of an inch before sunrise. Overnight lows are on the mild
side, between 30-37F over the region...so if any snow does occur
accumulations should be light and confined to the higher
elevations where the cooler readings are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...

Warmer weather continues Tuesday despite a shortwave passage
from overnight thanks to zonal flow and weak cold air advection.
850 mb temperatures only get down to around -6C to -8C Tuesday
afternoon and with Lake Ontario surface temperatures down around
2C it is unlikely there will be enough of a temperature
difference to generate lake effect snow and if it does, it will
be weak and short lived Tuesday night.

Another shortwave approaches Wednesday into Wednesday night
with a warm front lifting through PA into NY. Highs on Wednesday
may push into the low 50s in NEPA in the river valleys though
thicker cloud cover and warm air arriving later in the day in NY
will keep it a bit cooler. Rain moves in Wednesday night as the
trough moves through. Temperatures cool into the upper 30s and
low 40s during the rain which should limit snow melt. QPF
amounts are variable given differences in the track of the
surface low but could be as much as a half inch of rain in the
heaviest band.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM Update...

The long range continues to be unsettled with frequent
shortwave troughs moving through. A deeper trough digs into the
central US at the end of the week though trends the last day or
so in the ensembles is towards a broader and flatter trough.
This has trended towards a weaker surface low tracking more
south. This has been the trend of this winter so precipitation
types have trended more towards snow especially for the Southern
Tier and northward. Though given how many other storms have
trended through this winter this may trend entirely south of the
region by the time we get to Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across all terminals tonight. Low level
moisture is lacking compared to previous model runs so could
bases are forecast to remain at VFR. A warm front moves into the
SYR/RME area in the afternoon, bringing some LLWS out of the SW
at 40-45kts up to FL020.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon: VFR expected (high confidence)

Monday night: VFR becoming MVFR overnight (moderate to high
confidence)

Tuesday...Scattered rain/snow showers along with associated
restrictions. (moderate confidence)

Wednesday...Dry weather expected. Lingering morning CIG
restrictions possible but becoming VFR through the day
(moderate confidence)

Thursday...Chance for showers and associated restrictions
(moderate confidence)

Friday...Scattered snow showers and associated restriction
(moderate to high confidence)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...JTC




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

 806 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds will increase over the mountain ridges and east slopes of
  the Front Range tonight. Gusts of 40 to 60 mph will be common,
  with gusts up to 75 mph above timberline and in some of the most
  wind prone foothills locations.

- Above normal temperatures expected through most of next week.

- Gusty mountain winds Monday, spreading into the plains Tuesday
  and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

Shortwave trough will travel over the top of the ridging that`s been
over the region tonight and early Monday. This will increase the
west-northwest flow aloft and bring windy conditions to the Front
Range Mountains and foothills tonight. The typical windy locations,
especially above timberline, could see gusts to 75 mph. Best
chance for the strongest winds looks to be towards sunrise Monday
morning when we see weak subsidence. For areas in and near the
lower foothills where winds will persist through the night,
expect mild temperatures with lows in the 40s. Bumped up
overnight lows in these areas, otherwise no other changes are
planned to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Monday/...
Issued at 258 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

A weak shortwave will move across Colorado tonight. Winds have
just begun to increase above timberline with a little wave
amplification. The wave should peak after midnight and then break
down towards dawn, transitioning into mixing of the stronger winds
aloft down to the plains and valleys. The winds should then
gradually diminish Monday afternoon as the flow decreases. There`s
a chance (50%) of 75 mph gusts above timberline and in the higher
wave hot spots, but the chance of high winds down into the lower
to mid foothills looks much lower (20%). If that happens, it
should be a marginal event and only for a few hours. However, 40
to 60 mph gusts should be pretty common in exposed areas. Some of
that wind will come off the foothills in the usual spots
overnight, but the eastward spread will have to wait until the
wave breaks down and there`s some mixing, probably in the middle
of the day or maybe even the afternoon for areas east of I-25.

The wind will help temperatures stay up tonight, near or above
freezing in most places and with lots of 20s in the mountains.
Temperatures should be the same or a little warmer tomorrow, the
current forecast looks good though it could be even slightly
warmer.

Models continue to overdo the amount of low level moisture, though
there is some increase with showers upstream in northern Utah and
Nevada. This may clip the northern most mountains, but significant
accumulations should be limited to backcountry areas with little
or no impact further south.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 258 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

The main story Monday night into Tuesday will be the wind.
Cross-barrier flow near 40-50kt will support a few wind gusts up
to around 60 mph in the wind prone spots, with some brief mountain
wave enhancement possible. Winds are expected to become more
widespread across the plains Tuesday as a shortwave trough
approaches the the overall pressure gradient strengthens. We`ll
end up warm but pretty windy across the plains with most guidance
suggesting highs in the mid to upper 60s. Guidance still tries to
move in a fairly strong cold front Tuesday evening... which could
have an impact on the MaxT forecast, especially closer to the
WY border.

Over the mountains, there should be a modest increase in
moisture embedded in the west/northwesterly flow, allowing for
light orographic snow showers to develop during the day Tuesday,
continuing into Tuesday night. Enough moisture will linger
Tuesday night into Wednesday for a continued chance of light snow,
mainly across the higher mountains. Any additional accumulation
looks light in this period.

Wednesday will be the one "cool" day of the week, though
temperatures across the plains will likely still reach the
mid/upper 40s. Models are starting to pick up on a secondary
shortwave diving into Colorado during the day, which could lead to
an increase in PoPs over the mountains, but the plains should
remain dry.

Ridging is then expected to build in for the latter half of the
week, with a return to above normal or well above normal
temperatures as we approach next weekend. There`s good agreement
across the deterministic and ensemble suite of guidance in this
period. Uncertainty increases a bit towards next weekend as a Rex
Block attempts to develop. For now our forecast favors the warmer
side of guidance but we`ll see if any definitive trends emerge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 806 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

High clouds and some winds have kept the Denver area mild and has
slowed the development of the southwest drainage winds. Pushed
back the timing of these southwest winds to 05Z. Southwest winds
are expected to prevail most/all of the night then. There will be
a chance for a push of stronger west winds overnight. Depending
on the location of this push, winds could end up westerly,
northwesterly, or southwesterly. The difficult wind forecast
continues into Monday afternoon, where the general wind pattern
will be west- northwest. However, winds could turn anti- cyclonic
and end up a northeast or even a southeast direction (per the HRRR
model), after 18Z Monday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meier
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...Hiris
AVIATION...Meier




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Cleveland OH

 1010 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits tonight with southwesterly winds taking hold
Monday. A weak disturbance brings a few showers Monday night
into early Tuesday, followed by high pressure once again. The
next low pressure system arrives Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
9:30 PM Update...

A mid/upper shortwave over northern Ohio will move east of the
region after 06Z. Precip continues to remain aloft due to low-
level dry air, so kept the forecast the same overnight. Much
milder conditions are expected with lows in the upper 20s to
around 30.

6:30 PM Update...

Kept the forecast dry this evening despite a large area of light
radar returns showing up over Lake Erie and northern Ohio
associated with a mid/upper shortwave moving across the
southern Great Lakes. NAM and RAP BUFKIT forecast soundings
show mid-level moisture with the shortwave leading to the
overcast skies, but abundant dry air remains in place. This will
prevent anything from reaching the ground.

Original Discussion...

Weak upper level trough currently traversing the lower Great Lakes
with light precipitation (snow across central MI), moving east
southeastward. The southern edge of this trough axis will clip our
CWA, but will keep the forecast dry. Low levels of the atmosphere
are decidedly dry, and likely not enough precipitation falling out
of the mid levels to achieve any sort of saturation in this dry
layer. Showing a non-precipitation rise in POPs to show the feature,
but again, keeping the forecast dry this afternoon and evening.
Trough exits, and clearing commences in low level warm air advection
tonight, only to have high level cloud cover return Monday through
the day. This is due in part to the upper level jet entrance region
to the north of the CWA and the PVA in the 500mb flow to the south
and southwest of our forecast area. After 00Z Tuesday, and elevated
cold front will push into the CWA. There is a surface cold front
with this but it is situated back upstream, and will not be a factor
in our CWA before 12Z Tuesday. This is an elevated cold front that
will undergo strengthening 03-09Z Tuesday as it moves into the CWA.
F-gen in the low/mid levels peaks around 09Z, and ramp up the POPs
in the southeastern zones during this time frame. Not going to be a
high QPF feature, and should be all rain with temperatures holding
on in the mid, perhaps upper 30s by 12Z Tuesday. Temperatures will
continue their climb Monday with better pronounced southwesterly
flow and cold air advection with widespread low to mid 40s
prevailing. Increasing dewpoints and winds should aid in the
snow melting process.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Above-average temperatures are expected for the short term period
with highs in the mid to upper 40s on Tuesday, further increasing
into the low to mid-50s by Wednesday. Lingering light rain showers
are possible behind a surface trough Tuesday morning, though dry
weather is favored for much of the day.

A low pressure system will sweep east through the Lower Great Lakes
Wednesday into Thursday associated with a sharp upper-
level trough. Primarily rain is expected with this system Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, with total amounts trending slightly
higher than previous model runs - generally around a quarter of an
inch with isolated higher amounts near a half-inch possible.
Anticipate much of the current snowpack to have melted by the time
this system arrives, but may still need to monitor area rivers for a
low-end flood potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the most part, seasonable temperatures are favored for the long
term period with daily highs in the low to mid-40s. A brief shot of
cold air on Sunday will usher in below average temperatures  in the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

An active upper-level pattern will develop for the long term
period, with a troughing regime favored across the Eastern CONUS.
Lingering surface troughing may result in light precipitation
Thursday, with confidence increasing in lake-enhanced rain and/or
snow across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Thursday
evening and overnight as the upper-level trough axis swings through.
A stronger clipper system will move east through the Central Great
Lakes Friday night into Saturday, though confidence is low on
precipitation coverage, particularly across the Lower Great Lakes. A
brief shot of colder air will arrive behind this system, dropping
temperatures back to below average in the 20s and 30s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A weak mid/upper shortwave over the southern Great Lakes will
move east this evening, with any precip aloft not reaching the
ground due to abundant low-level dry air. This will keep
conditions VFR with a broken to overcast 5 to 10 thousand food
cloud deck. The cloud deck will lift tonight and Monday to
mainly 20 to 25 thousand feet, but another strong upper jet on
the southern flank of a shortwave crossing the northern Great
Lakes will bring some 5 to 10 thousand foot cigs back to KERI
and possibly KCLE and KYNG in the late afternoon and evening.
Again, conditions will stay dry and VFR.

S to SW winds will decrease to 5-10 knots tonight, but an
increasing pressure gradient will lead to SW winds increasing to
15-20 knots by Monday afternoon, with gusts of 25-35 knots at
times, especially west of I-71 and near the lakeshore.

Outlook...Periodic rain showers with non-VFR possible Monday
night through Tuesday and again Wednesday through Thursday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie is primarily ice-covered and thus Small Craft Advisory
issuance remains suspended until further notice. No additional
marine headlines are expected through the upcoming week. South to
southwest winds may peak in the 20 to 25 knot range with
occasional gusts up to 30 knots on Monday. Significant breaks or
shifts in the ice across Lake Erie are possible and will need to be
monitored. Otherwise, winds are expected to generally range
in the 10 to 15 knot range through the rest of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/26
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Kahn




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Des Moines IA

 524 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak system Monday evening (40 to 50% chance rain over the
  north northeast) and continued mild.
- Tuesday night system with light rain chances 40 to 50%.
- Warming again through Friday then slightly cooler Sat/Sun

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

.Short Term /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Confidence: High

Generally zonal flow over much of the nation this morning with a few
minor waves within the stream.  After a few reports of 3sm to 5sm
fog around sunrise, conditions have improved quickly. 12z H850
analysis shows +6C already well into the region with modest 10 to 15
kt flow aloft.  A warm front at the surface extends north across the
Northern Plains then southeast into MN and WI with light south winds
over Iowa. We will continue to see light south southwest flow today
through afternoon. Similar to yesterday, we continue to warm most
quickly over areas with lesser snow cover. Estherville has been
running nearly 8 degrees warmer than central to southern Iowa
little if any snow visible on satellite there. Looking at the
general set up over the next 3 to 5 days, we have one weak wave
moving over Iowa today and the next upstream wave over MT this
morning. A broad H500 wave near the Gulf is pulling some
moisture north into the Gulf States, but the better moisture
transport will remain focused in that area. Our main moisture
source both for Monday and Wednesday will be the Pacific
Northwest. In most cases, Pacific Northwest moisture which
manages to track into Iowa is usually somewhat limited. With
that said, a quick look at the 12z HREF ensemble suggests that
little if any rain will occur in our area, but the chance of at
least a hundredth has now increased to around 50 to 60%
northeast. Individual HRRR model runs are painting out some
showers over Iowa with trends increasing for a farther south
occurrence. Soundings also suggest some weak stability aloft,
which may enhance the shower activity as it moves southeast
during the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow. Mid level lapse
rates of 7 to 8C are forecast with the passage of the wave.
Rainfall amounts would be on the order of a tenth or under with
this event. After highs today expected to reach the 40s and 50s
with the warmest northwest where snow cover is lacking, lows
tonight will fall back to the 20s to lower 30s. We are likely to
again see some light fog/haze over the area by early Monday
morning. Depending on bridge/road temperatures, there is still a
small risk of some frost formation. Again most roads with
lingering salt from the previous events will likely only see
moistened surfaces rather than frosty surfaces. Though our
temperatures aloft will peak by 18z Monday, better mixing will
help to warm afternoon highs into the 40s to 50s for much of the
region, with the cooler areas in the northeast and where some
residual snow cover continues. Lows tomorrow night should fall
back to the upper 20s to lower 30s.

.Long Term /Tuesday through Sunday/...

Confidence: Medium to High

The next system is slated to arrive by Tuesday evening and nearly be
out of our forecast area by sunrise Wednesday. Tuesday will see
another day of rapid warming for most of the region with the
exception of the northeast where cooler air from overnight will
linger into the afternoon. Highs will be similar to Monday with
highs in the upper 40s/lower 50s northeast to the mid to upper 50s
central to southwest. As the Pac Northwest system arrives Tuesday
evening, a combination of moisture from the northwest and southern
stream will enhance shower development with the bulk of it east of
Iowa. Some uncertainty remains on the coverage of current PoPs. We
may need to trim back on the coverage in the next couple of
packages. With a mild start to the day Wednesday, afternoon highs
will again reach the upper 40s/lower 50s over the area. The
remainder of Thursday through Friday will be dry with another round
of adiabatic warming arriving Friday. With next to no snow left by
then, mixing will help warm afternoon highs back at least into the
50s most areas. The ensemble guidance in the EC/GFS suite are
similar in keeping the main energy tracking well north of Iowa which
would suggest another very mild late February day. The deterministic
models are diverging with the EC farther north and more similar to
its ensemble mean while the GFS is digging the low more quickly into
Iowa by early afternoon and essentially ending the warming faster.
In either case, we will remain well above normal - some 10 to 15
degrees in most areas as we round out the week. Model solutions are
still struggling with the potential weekend cool down. In the past
24 hours the GFS deterministic H500 flow has now buckled enough to
bring Iowa 10C below H850 temperatures by 00z Sunday. The Euro had
shown that 24 hours earlier then the GFS, only to back off again
with yesterdays 12z run. Looking at the ensemble guidance of both
models today suggests a glancing blow of cold occurring within the
average solution for both model suites. This would tend to deflate
highs back to the 30s northeast/50 possible southwest for Saturday
with another return of warm air advection on Sunday; raising highs
back to a more spring-like range of 45 to 55 across the area. There
remains no indication of any amplification of waves at least through
the end of our current forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. LLWS of
35-45KT is expected overnight, approximately between 04Z and 12Z
depending on the site, otherwise no aviation weather impacts are
anticipated.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...REV
AVIATION...Lee




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Green Bay WI

 827 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

New Information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 812 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Was considering the possibility of issuing a Winter Weather
Advisory for light freezing rain/icing over far northern WI
overnight. After coordination with MQT, will continue to handle
the situation with a Special Weather Statement. Forcing will not
be an issue, with WAA on the nose of a 55 kt LLJ, LFQ of an upper
jet and short-wave energy impacting the region. However, deep
saturation is lacking, the forcing moves through quickly, and
some locations will have air temperatures above freezing. Fairly
confident that at least sprinkles will developin N WI, with
spotty icing occurring on pavement that has cooled to, or
slightly below, freezing. It is a bit disconcerting to see
precipitation already occurring as far south as WC/SW MN, but the
HRRR shows most of this dissipating before reaching central WI.
Thus, will continue to focus most of the threat of freezing rain
and icing over far northern WI, where deeper saturation is more
likely.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A wintry mix of light rain and light freezing rain could make
  roads, bridges and sidewalks slippery north of a Tomahawk to
  Sturgeon Bay line late tonight. Probabilities of measurable
  precipitation (0.01 inch) range from 60% across Vilas County,
  down to around 10% from Rhinelander eastward to far northern
  Door County.

- Wintry precipitation is expected at times Tuesday night through
  Wednesday. Main impacts will come from any potential icing
  creating slippery roads, bridges, and sidewalk.

- Above normal temperatures expected much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Short Term...Tonight and Monday

The first upper level disturbance moved east of the area this
afternoon. Skies were beginning to clear across central and
north-central Wisconsin as of mid afternoon with cloudy skies
across the east. Temperatures were in the 30s, except for where
skies cleared across north-central Wisconsin where readings
warmed into the lower 40s.

For tonight, the next 500mb trough is expected to swing across the
area tonight. This feature will bring another chance of
precipitation to far northern Wisconsin from late evening to
several hours before sunrise on Monday. Several issues to contend
with with this system including amount of warm aloft, the amount
of dry air in the low levels, and the very cold ground where
subsurface temperatures are well below freezing. Also, confidence
in model QPF is low based on what happened this morning with
little or no qpf while we had a few hours of light snow. Also,
bufkit soundings across the north indicated a brief period of
saturation to allow precipitation to reach the ground. Bufkit
soundings indicated a warm layer off the surface to support
precipitation type mainly in the form of rain. Air temperatures
across the north will be hovering at or a few degrees above
freezing. Lastly, pavement temperatures warmed well above freezing
this afternoon are expected to cool from below tonight, due to
very cold subsurface temperatures well below freezing which could
result in icy conditions on roads, bridges and sidewalks. Overall,
do expect some light icing over the far north, but confidence was
not high enough to issue a Winter Weather Advisory. For tonight,
lows will likely occur this evening, then remain steady or slowly
rise overnight due to increasing southwest winds.

On Monday, skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with mild
readings expected. Highs should top out in the 40s. Westerly winds
will gradually subside during the afternoon.

Long Term...Monday Night Through Sunday

Unsettled pattern setting up for much of the week as a parade of
low pressure systems/shortwaves will track across the region. Each
will bring its own p-type/amount/track issues as models still not
in great agreement. Temps are forecast to be above normal much of
the week, with a cool down sometime next weekend.

Precipitation: The first shortwave will arrive Monday night into
early Tuesday. Models continue to advertise limited moisture/lift,
with most guidance struggling to produce any measurable precip.
Have lowered PoPs slightly and edged them southward, mainly along
and south of Hwy 29. P-type looks to be mainly rain for the
evening, then temps cool enough to bring in some mixed precip.
Mid-level moisture will be lacking much of the time, so some
drizzle or freezing drizzle can`t be ruled out, but low-level
saturation/depth of saturation looks to be lacking, so will not
include. As flow turns a little more northwesterly, some lake
effect snow showers and flurries will be possible over north
central WI Monday night into early Tuesday. The next shortwave and
low pressure system will arrive on Wednesday. Probabilities
continue to inch upward with greater than 0.1" of QPF in the
50-60% range now (approaching 40% for 0.2"+). Operational Canadian
shows a heavy band of 0.6"+ of QPF and would bring a more
significant winter event. But p-type will be an issue as critical
thicknesses are grouped near the Fox Valley, with a slight shift
of the system or depth of warm air aloft will make a big difference
if we get rain, snow or freezing rain. Have added a snow/freezing
rain mix mainly along and south of Hwy 29, along with increasing
PoPs, with snow over the north for the predawn hours on Wednesday,
with a rain/snow mix later in the day. Some light northwest flow
snow showers and flurries will continue on the back side of this
system into parts of Thursday, especially northern WI. The most
potent system (clipper) is forecast to dive into the Great Lakes
late in the week. Quite a bit of model spread regarding its track
and timing, so will need to give models some time to start
pinning down the details, but a healthy swath of snow is likely
to set up on the northern side of the system, along with some lake
effect behind it.

Each precip event may lead to slippery roads, bridges, and
sidewalks as ground surfaces will likely remain below freezing
given the recent cold stretch.

Temperatures: The westerly flow over the northern CONUS will allow
for modified Pacific air into the Great Lakes, keeping temps at or
above normal all week, with highs mainly in the mid 30s and 40s.
Ensemble temp spreads remain quite large (10-15 degrees) at the
end of the week and next weekend, especially on Friday due to
timing difference with the potent clipper system. But a shot of
colder air is expected behind the system, dropping temps back to
or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 539 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

The main aviation concerns are LLWS later this evening through
Monday, and potential for light freezing rain and MVFR ceilings
over far northern WI late tonight.

Stratocumulus clouds with bases from 4-6K ft AGL will continue to
shift east early this evening as high clouds thicken across the
region. A Canadian low pressure system will pass well north of the
region later tonight. This system is moisture-starved, but lift
may be strong enough to produce a few hour period of light rain or
freezing rain across far northern WI between 06z-12z/Monday. A
strong low-level jet (up to 55 kts) will generate strong LLWS
across the region, starting in the late evening and continuing
through most of Monday. Have attempted to highlight the period of
strongest LLWS in the TAFs. While flight condiitons should remain
VFR for most of the TAF period, there is potential for MVFR
ceilings in far northern WI overnight into early Monday, and again
later Monday afternoon.

S-SW surface winds will increase and become gusty later this
evening, then veer west and remain gusty late tonight into early
Monday. The winds should subside by sunset.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.........Kieckbusch
DISCUSSION.....Eckberg/Bersch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL

 519 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures expected through the upcoming work
  week.

- There`s a chance for a few (rain) showers Monday night and
  again Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Through Monday Night:

As an upper level wave exits to the east, cloud cover will
decrease this afternoon and evening. However, mid to upper level
clouds will increase once again overnight as the next upper
wave moves down toward the Great Lakes. Winds will remain out of
the south and become breezy tomorrow morning. Despite the cloud
cover, these wind should provide enough warm air advection to
drive afternoon high temperatures into the upper 40s north of
I-88, and into the 50s to the south. There is still some
uncertainty on exact high temperatures given how models have
been struggling with snow pack and its impact on temperatures.
The HRRR and RAP have consistently been bringing the southern
part of the CWA into the low 60s. And while the forecast did not
bite on that entirely, temperatures were blended warmer than
much of the other cooler guidance.

A strong upper level jet streak will move down over northern
Illinois Monday night. With colder temperatures aloft, models
have been consistently showing fairly robust large scale
forcing, but one of the big concerns is the amount of moisture
(or lack there of) associated the wave. If enough saturation
occurs, scattered rain showers are possible Monday evening and
through the overnight. But given the amount of dry air seen in
model soundings, PoPs were tempered slightly down to the 20 to
30 percent range. One positive is, thermal profiles remain warm
enough that frozen precip is not expected with this wave.

DK

Tuesday through Sunday:

No change in thinking from the previous shift. Certainly room
for temps to overperform on several of the days this week as
guidance (too slowly) sheds the lingering effects of a quickly
melting snow pack, but for now didn`t adjust NBM temps upward.
Temperature trends over the next 24 hours will be very telling
and may lend to increased confidence to adjust NBM temps upward.

- Izzi

Previous discussion from 145 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025 follows...

Activity looks to largely shift east of the region through
Tuesday morning. While the NAM, in typical fashion, holds onto
a widespread low stratus deck through the day, this signal is
not evident in the rest of the guidance suite. Expecting clouds
to generally scatter out, which will allow temperatures to warm
at least into the 50s south of I-80. Depending on how much
insolation returns, highs may need to be boosted further.
Additionally, with the surface pressure gradient relaxing and a
nearly 15-20 degree temperature delta between the land and lake,
a weak lake breeze may try to meander inland during the
afternoon.

The next disturbance will arrive very late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. There has been, and continues to be, a large amount
of variability both in individual run-to-run output and across
individual ensemble suites, which lowers overall forecast
confidence during this period. Guidance suggests deeper moisture
will be available (PWATs possibly pushing past three quarters
of an inch), and jet forcing additionally looks a bit more
formidable than Monday night`s system. PoPs have been increased
a bit with this forecast package. Finally, given recent trends,
the threat for wintry precipitation with this system continue to
diminish and have pulled all mention of frozen precip from the
grids. Can`t entirely rule out a brief flip to a little snow as
the main surface low departs and winds turn northerly, but
latest soundings suggest dry air will effectively shut precip
off before the columns cools sufficiently to support a
changeover.

The active pattern will continue upstairs through the rest of the
week and into the weekend. Guidance is in reasonably good
agreement depicting an intense shortwave pivoting into the
Upper Great Lakes region on Friday, dragging an associated
sub-1000 mb surface low with it along the International Border.
Currently, we look too far removed from this system for precip
chances, but gusty southwesterly winds within an expansive low-
level thermal axis may once again help boost high temperatures
into the 40s and 50s. A strong cold front is then slated to
deliver a (temporary) surge of colder air to the region over the
weekend.

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Forecast concerns for the terminals...

- Low-level wind shear potential tonight into Monday morning

- Breezy west-southwest winds on Monday

- 20-30% chance for rain showers Monday evening


Generally quiet weather is expected this evening as a surface
high continues exit the area. Therefore, expect SCT to BKN VFR
skies and southwest winds around 10 kts. While the VFR skies
will persist overnight, a stout 45 kt low-level jet is expected
to develop overhead after midnight and linger into Monday
morning. Since winds should remain decoupled tonight, there is
a threat for low-level wind shear between 1500 and 2000 ft due
to the jet. The wind shear threat will diminish as winds
increase Monday morning with gusts in the lower 20 kt range
expected through Monday afternoon.

Finally, a shortwave disturbance is expected to pivot across
northern IL late Monday afternoon and evening which could bring
a chance for some light rain showers (20-30% chance). While
low-level moisture continues to look like the limiting factor,
sufficient mid-level moisture is forecast to be in place as the
wave arrives so think at least a few scattered showers/virga
should materialize. For now have introduced PROB30s at ORD and
MDW for this potential, but have maintained dry forecasts at the
other sites since showers look hold off until the very end of
the 24-hour TAF period. Regardless, impacts from the showers
look to be minimal and the showers should taper after 06z Monday
night.

Yack

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to noon CST Monday for the IL
     nearshore waters.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/chicago




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Marquette MI

 537 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mix of light rain, light freezing and and light snow will
  spread across the area tonight. Freezing rain potential is
  greatest from Marquette/Delta counties to Luce County, where
  there is a 40-80% chance of a light glaze of ice. Untreated
  roads will become slippery in spots.

- Widespread precipitation returns to the region Wednesday,
  with rain and snow expected.

- Further clipper lows remain possible late in the week, but
  the highest potential for more widespread precipitation comes
  late Friday into Saturday.

- Warmer than normal through the first half of this week with
  highs likely above freezing. A colder pattern shapes up over
  weekend with at least a 40% chance of single digit lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 406 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show that flow has deamplified
some since yesterday as vigorous shortwave trof moving out across
the Prairie Provinces is forcing rising heights downstream where
troffing has existed. Weak shortwave that passed across the western
Great Lakes today brought widespread -sn to much of the fcst area.
Snow accumulations were around a half inch or less. That -sn has
recently exited the fcst area. Temps have risen into the 30s F
across the board, but readings are now into the lwr 40s F over the
far w where clouds have cleared out.

Aforementioned vigorous shortwave trof will reach the Upper Great
Lakes Mon morning. At the sfc, this wave will support a deep low
pres that tracks from Saskatchewan this aftn to northern Ontario by
Mon morning. The low deepens from 985mb to 979mb. In response to the
wave, healthy deep layer forcing per q-vectors and strong
waa/isentropic ascent will overspread the area tonight from w to e.
However, pcpn development will be limited by low-level dry air that
needs to be overcome. Saturation of the column will be more likely
deeper into the retreating colder air where saturation is easier to
achieve. So, fcst reflects highest pcpn probability from the
Keweenaw across the n central into the eastern fcst area. Ptype is
an issue with fcst soundings showing varying depths of above
freezing layers, complicated by saturation potential and resulting
cooling of those layers as that occurs. Sfc temps also come into
play. HREF indicates highest potential of a light glaze of ice in
eastern Marquette County, much of Delta/Alger counties, and western
Schoolcraft County. Flow off of the frozen Bay of Green Bay may work
to hold sfc temps at or just below freezing longer in at least
portions of that area. Probability of light icing is as high as
around 80 percent in that area, but probability of at least 0.05
inch of ice accumulation is only 20-50pct. Ptype is expected to be
just -ra over western Upper MI. Pcpn should enter western Upper MI
late evening/closer to midnight and will reach the e around 07z or
so. Pcpn will likely be done by 12z Mon, except for the far eastern
fcst area. The wintry mix combination could impact the morning
commute on Mon with some slippery road conditions even though temps
will be pushing just above freezing by 12z. Opted to issue a winter
wx advy 06z-12z for Marquette County, Delta County, Schoolcraft
County and Luce County for the light glaze potential. A strong low-
level jet of ~50kt translates across the area tonight. Stability per
fcst soundings will work against that wind getting down to the sfc,
but strong pres falls of 7-9mb/3hrs shifting across Lake Superior
and northern Ontario will align with the gradient wind for a time,
increasing the potential for a few hrs of gusty winds. Best
potential would be in the high terrain down to Lake Superior. Gusts
to 30-35mph, maybe locally 40mph, are possible in that area. Expect
min temps in the upper 20s to mid 30s F, warmest w. Lows will occur
in the evening with temps then slowly rising.

On Mon, last of the pcpn (mainly just rain at this point) will exit
the eastern fcst area in the morning. Will be a breezy day with
gusts into the 20-30mph range, particularly in the aftn. Keweenaw
may see gusts 35-40mph, but fcst soundings are fairly stable there,
so gusts may be held in check on Mon. A fair amount of stratocu may
be around during the day, but the downslope nature of the westerly
winds in the central U.P. will allow for more sun. Temps will surge
toward 50F s central due to the solar insolation and downsloping
winds. Otherwise, expect highs in generally in the upper 30s to lwr
40s F for much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 420 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

The extended forecast remains fairly active as WNW to NW flow
results in a surplus of shortwaves tracking over the Great Lakes.
The remainder of the work week is expected to be warmer than normal
with a mild airmass wavering overhead. This leaves plenty of chances
for above freezing temps and a few spots reaching into the low 40s
near WI and in the S Central. Lows through Thursday morning
will be in the 20s to low 30s, but eventually a more NW flow
will help cooler air descend through bringing temps closer to
normal for next weekend.

Deeper mid level troughing to the N brings the sfc low over E Hudson
Bay NE over Quebec through Monday night and Tuesday. Meanwhile,
shortwaves over the Great Lakes continue SE and a sfc trough trails
over the UP and cold front approaches from the N. This provides
enough lift to keep slight chance PoPs for a wintry mix of light
snow/flurries and drizzle/freezing drizzle through Tuesday morning;
WNW upslope flow yields chance PoPs in high terrain areas of W Upper
MI. PoPs gradually diminish as the front weakens, but struggles to
lift away from the area. Impacts are not expected given QPF in most
areas will struggle to reach 0.01"/6hr, peaking 6hr QPF at 0.04" in
the N Central Highlands Monday night. The dry but cloudy period
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night supported by weak sfc
ridging passing overhead ends on Wednesday with the next passing
system.

A shortwave travels mainly to the S bringing some additional rain
and snow chances to the UP. The NAM has consistently been an
outlier, keeping the forcing in the low levels too far N. This
results in higher QPF compared to the vast majority of other medium
range guidance. Best dynamic support and WAA remains over WI, but
the S Central could see up to 0.1-0.2" of QPF with this clipper
system depending on any N shifts in track. With the mild airmass in
place, SLRs are anticipated around 10:1. Also, temps eclipsing the
freezing mark near WI and in the S Central increase rain/snow mix
chances in the afternoon and evening. A further S track would
provide a cooler airmass and less rain chances...but also further
lower snow accumulations. Nonetheless, no major impacts are expected
and total snow accumulations mainly should hold below 1".

Anther shortwave and accompanying cold front re-invigorates PoPs
from the NW. The trailing colder airmass brings back a brief period
of lake enhanced to LES showers on Thursday. This also could bring a
period of gusty NW winds up to 25-35mph, strongest winds over the
east and near Lake Superior. The PoPs continue into the weekend as
flow shifts more NW. A deeper trough and stronger clipper system are
projected to track over the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. Spread
in ensemble guidance is still significant, but some light to
moderate snow is possible depending on the track. With 850mb
temps dropping down to -15C to -19C behind the system, some
light LES showers are likely the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

A deep low pres will track e across northern Ontario late tonight
and Mon morning. This low will bring increasing winds and a period
of pcpn to the area tonight. The much stronger increase in winds
above sfc based stable layer will result in LLWS tonight at
IWD/SAW.

At IWD, VFR will continue until late Monday afternoon when MVFR
clouds comes in. Developing pcpn will mostly occur to the n and ne
of IWD tonight, so only a prob30 for -ra was included late evening
into the overnight. SW to W winds will become gusty to around 25kt
at IWD late tonight thru Mon morning. As CMX, VFR will occur this
evening at CMX, then MVFR will return with a period of -ra. VFR will
return Monday morning. W winds will become sustained at 20-25kt Mon
morning with gusts 30-35kt. At SAW, VFR will be brief this evening.
MVFR will return overnight along with a period of -fzra. MVFR cigs
at SAW will then scatter out to VFR Mon morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 420 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

South winds ramp up through tonight to gales to 35 kts over the east
half around midnight and late tonight over the west half as a strong
low passes over far northern Ontario. Winds across the lake begin to
back west into Monday morning, settling back to 20-30 kts over the
west half around 10 AM EST. The east half settles to 20-30 kts by
Monday evening. There is a 15-25% chance for gales up to 40 kts.
West winds over the west half of the lake fall below 20 kts Monday
night with the east half maintaining around 15-25 kts through Monday
night as they veer north to northwest. Light and variable winds
mainly below 10 kts are expected on Tuesday. Winds become south
Tuesday night and west on Wednesday, likely holding 15 kts or less.
A cold front dropping south over the lake on Thursday brings
northwest winds of 20-30 kts back to the lake. The next chances for
gales and freezing spray arrive Friday into Saturday with a possible
clipper low pressure system. Peak wave heights are expected Monday
morning up to 10-12 ft over the north central and northeastern
portions of the lake.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Monday for
     MIZ005>007-013-014-085.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for LSZ263-264.

  Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for LSZ266-267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...07
MARINE...Jablonski




Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Francisco CA

 414 PM PST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1258 PM PST Sun Feb 23 2025

Light showers ending early this afternoon over the North Bay with
chances again on Monday. Mild to warm and quiet conditions persist
with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals by
midweek. Next chance for widespread rain potentially next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1258 PM PST Sun Feb 23 2025

High pressure remains over the southern half our region while the
North Bay is being impacted by a pair of weather systems. The one
today will begin to taper off by late this afternoon with trace to
a few hundredths of an inch expected across the North Bay and maybe
as far south as San Francisco and Oakland. Temperatures this
afternoon will warm into the low-to-upper 60s across the North Bay
and San Francisco Bay Area with upper 60s to near 80 degrees across
the Central Coast. If the North Bay and San Francisco Bay Area stay
under cloud cover, temperatures may be a few degrees cooler.

Low level clouds are expected to increase in coverage tonight,
keeping temperature up by some 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages.
Monday will see another system pass through the region, again mainly
impacting the North Bay and potentially the San Francisco Bay Area
in the afternoon and into the early evening. Again, with this
passing system we are not expecting much more than trace amounts to
a few hundredths of an inch. In the coastal ranges of the North Bay,
we may pick up to around 0.15". The Central Coast is expected to
remain dry both today and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1258 PM PST Sun Feb 23 2025

Unseasonably warm conditions will persist through midweek with
mostly zonal flow across the region. Thus, any deeper moisture tap
will remain well to our north through midweek. High pressure will
build in from the Pacific on Wednesday, which is forecast to be our
warmest day of the week when temperatures reach 10 to 15 degrees
above average.

The ridge doesn`t last for too long, as conditions become more
unsettled by Thursday. This will be the result of a cut off low
developing out over the eastern Pacific by Thursday and will move
towards southern California through Saturday. While we have rain
chances in the forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday, we do not
expect very much rainfall. It isn`t until Saturday when we have
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) in the grids. This is
when we have a greater probability of seeing widespread rainfall.
However, amounts are generally light at this time. There is still
much more to be ironed out in the days to come. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 414 PM PST Sun Feb 23 2025

Mixture of high and low level clouds across the Bay Area and Central
Coast. VFR conditions persist through the remainder of the evening
but MVFR to IFR-LIFR conditions are expected overnight. Current
thinking is that MVFR-IFR CIGs will develop between 05-10Z across
the region with patchy/temporary lowered CIGs possible prior to that
timing. NBM guidance places a higher confidence in lowered CIGs
persisting after 10Z for much of the region. Fog is possible at STS
overnight but again remains dependent on overnight cloud cover/how
deep it is and how much radiational cooling is able to occur.
Probabilistic guidance shows CIGs improving by the 16Z-18Z timeframe
but coastal airports (HAF) may see CIGs persist through 20Z. Winds
remain light and variable overnight but moderate west to northwest
flow is set to return tomorrow during the day. CIGs start to lower
again at the end of this TAF period with precipitation chances
increasing across the North Bay Monday afternoon into the evening.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR becoming MVFR overnight. Probabilistic
guidance is leaning towards IFR-LIFR CIGs overnight but there is
some disagreement between ensemble model guidance. Main difference
from previous TAF was to bump up arrival time of stratus to 07Z from
10Z. Probabilistic guidance and ensemble guidance are both in
agreement of an earlier arrival time. A few models do suggest an
arrival time as early as 03Z so will continue to monitor satellite
and update as needed. Moderate west to northwest winds are expected
during the day today and again tomorrow. Ceilings will start to
lower at the end of the TAF period with potential for MVFR CIGs to
develop.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR becoming borderline MVFR-IFR overnight.
Ensemble guidance indicates some potential for LIFR-IFR CIGs
overnight but confidence remains low with current thinking similar
to that of the CONSSHort model. Both the NBM and HRRR show potential
for LIFR CIGs (down to 200 to 300 feet) from 06Z to 15-16Z at MRY
and SNS tonight. For now, continuing to lean towards MVFR CIGs given
lack of agreement in models but will monitor and update as needed.
Moderate northwest winds continue through this evening and will
return again during the day tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 414 PM PST Sun Feb 23 2025

Showers are dissipating. Winds and seas remain relatively calm
through early monday. Another chance for light rain in the
northern waters Monday as a weak upper level disturbance moves
through the region. Moderate northwesterly swell returns to the
coastal waters by Tuesday, bringing waves between 10 to 14 feet at
about 14 seconds, leading to rough seas and hazardous conditions
for small craft.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 3 PM PST Tuesday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Murdock

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Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

 447 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures persist through the week.

- Precipitation chances remain small, less than 25%, focused on
  some light rain potential Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Early afternoon temperature have reached the lower and middle 50s
with the remaining snow field diminishing. A moderate westerly low-
level jet tonight responding to an upper wave over the northern
Plains will continue to bring warmer air into the area Monday. Given
some models still having widespread snow on the ground at 0Z
tonight, have leaned on the MOS/NBM 75% guidance for highs despite
increasing high cloud. A weak boundary slides through Monday night
as a weak upper wave passes just to the north but temperature fields
still showing some minor afternoon warming for even warmer highs.
Precipitation chances remain modest Tuesday night into Wednesday but
could see a brief shower nearly anywhere in these periods. There
appears to be two waves during this time with decent mid-level
moisture and some weak elevated instability. 850 mb temps drop
considerably Wednesday afternoon though mixing looks better and
should still support highs in the 50s. Ensemble RH and wind progs
Wednesday suggest the potential for concerning fire weather
conditions is low but should be monitored. Friday could present
another dry and breezy day but specifics are far from certain. Zonal
flow into the weekend keeps temperatures mild. An upper wave
undercutting the western CONUS ridge now looks more likely to move
across the southern Plains late in the weekend, keeping the local
area dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 447 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the forecast
period. RAP forecast soundings show good mixing at the top of
the boundary layer preventing it from saturating. Also cross
over temps look to be a few degrees from the forecast lows. The
mixing could pose a LLWS problem with a 30KT wind near the top
of the inversion. But the window for LLWS is only an hour or
two long prior to 12Z. Will opt to keep windshear out for now
given the marginal potential and evaluate the 00Z guidance this
evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Wolters