Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/22/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
556 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A light wintry mix will be possible at times from Sunday night
through Wednesday. Best chances for wintry precipitation will be
on Sunday night, when there is a 40-60% chance of a wintry mix.
- Temperatures warm this weekend through early next week. Highs
ranging from the middle 30s to the lower 40s will be possible
from Sunday through Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
Short Term...Tonight and Saturday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high
pressure centered across the central and southern Mississippi
Valley early this afternoon. The leading edge of more mild,
Pacific air is shifting east across the northern Plains, but it
appears that much of this warming is occurring above the boundary
layer as evident by surface obs showing temps in the teens and 20s
over North Dakota. Looking further aloft, several shortwaves are
tracking towards the northern Great Lakes within fast northwest
flow. Cloud bases are generally above 10 kft with these
shortwaves. Forecast concerns generally revolve around cloud cover
and temps.
Shortwave energy will be tracking southeast across the region at
times through Saturday night. Saturation will be more robust
across the Lake Superior region where there will be a chance of
light snow on Saturday.
Mid and high clouds will be passing across northern Wisconsin at
times through Saturday night. The GFS shows more boundary layer
moisture and saturation on Saturday that could lead to the
development of low clouds. Dewpoint depressions look relatively
high upstream and return flow will originate out of a very dry arctic
airmass. So think the probability of low stratus forming is
relatively low.
Temperatures will continue the warming trend with highs on
Saturday ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Low temperatures
will be near normal tonight and Saturday night.
Long Term...Saturday Night Through Friday
The latest ensemble means indicate that split flow will be the
predominate pattern which will remain rather progressive across
North America. Medium range models show fairly good agreement on
the large scale pattern through much of next week, though still
considerable variability in the details of individual systems. The
primary focus of this forecast is to assess the impact potential
for wintry systems from Sunday night through next Wednesday.
Sunday Night and Monday: Shortwave energy will be pushing a
surface low across northern Ontario during this period. Warm
advection aloft will be occurring south of the low track and
across northern Wisconsin. Moisture is rather disjointed, with mid
and high moisture out ahead of the lower moisture. But there
appears to be a short few hour window where there will be
sufficient saturation for light precip. Highest chances will occur
across northern WI where there is a 30-45% chance of measurable
precip.
Thermal profiles will be warming by Sunday night with the critical
thicknesses lifting into northern WI. Time of the day combined
with the cold ground leads to concerns for light icing to take
place, even further south than the critical thickness lines.
Confidence is low enough to exclude from the HWO, so will pass
concerns along to the next shift. This light precip is projected
to exit the area by the start of the Monday morning commute.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Another fast moving shortwave is forecast
to move across the area during the Monday night period. Thermal
profiles will be slightly cooler by this point, but precip type
will continue to be a concern, particularly over central and
east-central WI.
A stronger system could impact the region on Wednesday. Early
indications suggest the boundary layer will be warmer by this
point and could be looking at more of a rain/snow scenario as
opposed to a wintry mix of sleet/freezing rain.
Temperatures: Will range from 5 to 10 degrees above normal from
Sunday through Wednesday before falling back to near normal by
next Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 555 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
VFR conditions are expected to continue through this TAF period.
While mid to high clouds are expected to move over the region this
evening through tonight, some cloud bases will lower to as low as
4500-6000 ft AGL Saturday morning. Some models continue to show
these ceilings dropping to MVFR, but confidence is still not high
enough to include in this TAF issuance due to high dewpoint
depressions upstream.
LLWS is expected to develop across all TAF sites from west to east
this evening before subsiding early Saturday morning.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....MPC/MPC
AVIATION.......Kruk
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
511 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 507 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
- Much warmer weather this weekend through next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 145 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
Deterministic and ensemble guidance depicts a positively tilted
short wave trough developing to the northeast from SE AZ/SW NM into
TX/OK PH - north of the area - through the beginning of this
weekend. Given farther proximity of higher moisture, lift, and
dynamics associated with the trough, minimal impacts are expected
for the CWA. However, the short wave will reinforce troughing and
slow down pace of the slowly easing longer wave troughing pattern
over the Southern Great Plains into Saturday, before ridging in
geopotential heights begins to build and expand from the Pacific SW
into Desert SW. The main effect of these developments aloft will be
a delay to a more sharply warming trend in temperatures until Sunday.
Coarser and higher-res models are in fairly good agreement regarding
highs today and Saturday, but have more spread for lows tonight and
Saturated night. GFS has warmer lows than CMC and ICON, and NBM has
trended colder in most recent runs for Friday night and Saturday
night, closer to the CMC and ICON. Higher-res models such as the NAM
3km, FV3 Hi-Res, WRF-ARW/ARW2 allow for pockets of below freezing
temperatures to again develop tomorrow night, while coarser-res
models like the GFS preclude development of these below freezing
temperatures for Saturday night. For now, went with NBM for highs
and lows. The bigger uncertainty will be development of freezing
fog. This is most likely Friday night from Terrell County into
eastern Stockton Plateau and Permian Basin, but currently only
patchy coverage is indicated. We will continue to monitor trends.
One factor that in favor of mist and fog formation Saturday morning
is RH above 85% northeast of a Culberson County to northern Brewster
County line Friday night, due to low temperature dew point spreads
less than 5F in these regions. RAP is farthest northwest with extent
of low clouds and visibilities, with regions of mist and fog
indicated in Fort Stockton Saturday morning. Another factor is light
and variable winds for most of the area as any major disturbances
mixing higher wind speeds aloft down to the ground will remain north
of the area. Grids indicate 5%-10% of rain showers over Western Low
Rolling Plains Sunday morning in most recent runs, but we are not
expecting any accumulation at this time. Wind chills Friday night
and Saturday night remain above the single digits everywhere, so no
cold weather advisories are anticipated given that we are well past
the first winter freeze.
Other than these uncertainties, the general outlook is for a warming
trend today into tomorrow, with the warming trend more distinct for
lows than highs. While winds will generally by southeasterly veering
to southerly, WAA will be weak due to light wind speeds and time
needed for recovery of the warmer and more humid boundary layer to
the south and east of the CWA, following this week`s cold air
outbreak. Today highs 20 to 25 degrees below average northeast,
east, and southeast of Davis Mountains, and 5 to 15 degrees below
average southwest of Davis Mountains today, with upper 30s to lower
40s SE NM plains into most of Permian Basin, mid to upper 40s
southwest of this region and northeast and east of Davis Mountains,
and mid to upper 50s southwest of Davis Mountains,lower to upper 60s
from Presidio Valley into Big Bend. VIS/IR Satellite imagery shows
scattered to broken high clouds over the CWA and this is expected to
persist until the short wave passes to the east and subsidence
follows in its wake Sunday. Lows 5 to 10 degrees below average, 10
to 12 degrees below average SE NM plains into Permian Basin tonight
will translate to below freezing temperatures in the lower to mid
20s, teens in northern SE NM plains into northern Permian Basin, and
near freezing lows along the Rio Grande into eastern Terrell County.
There is a 30% chance of lows only falling into the mid 30s in
Presidio Valley. Saturday, highs 10 to 15 degrees below average
northeast, east, and southeast of Davis Mountains, and near average
southwest of Davis Mountains translate to lower to mid 50s northeast
of Davis Mountains, and lower to mid 60s southwest of Davis
Mountains. Even in warmest spots of Presidio Valley, highs may still
struggle to reach 70. Saturday night, lows near to 5 degrees below
average are forecast, lower to mid 30s northeast, east, and
southeast of Davis Mountains with exception to upper 20s along Pecos
River and northern Lea County into northwest Permian Basin with
lighter drainage winds, and mid 30s to lower 40s southwest of Davis
Mountains. There is still a high chance lows fall below 40F in the
Presidio Valley, so chilly conditions will be the story from today
into Saturday night. It will be a different story later this
weekend into next week. See more in the long term discussion.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
Sunday, modest upper-level ridging is forecast over the western
CONUS, putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry,
northwest flow aloft. This will result in continued increasing
thicknesses, which along with sunny skies and westerly downslope
warming will contribute to a warming trend already in the process.
Temperatures will climb above normal for the first time in about a
week as highs top out ~ 5-7 F over climatology.
Thicknesses continue their upward trend Monday as the ridge
continues building into the region. Despite a trough approaching
the west coast and attenuating the ridge somewhat, Monday looks to
be our warmest day this forecast as highs plateau a pleasant ~ 12-15
F above normal.
Unfortunately, a cold front is forecast to intrude upon the area
late Monday afternoon or night to take temperatures down slightly
Tuesday afternoon, and down further Wednesday/Thursday. Fortunately,
the worst this front looks to do will be on Thursday, when highs tap
out at or just above normal. A slight warmup resumes Friday.
Unfortunately, this pattern is drier than a moth sandwich, and long-
term grids stay dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
VFR conditions prevail over all sites through the period. Winds
remain light, generally out of the southeast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 24 54 29 71 / 0 0 10 0
Carlsbad 21 53 27 72 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 26 51 30 75 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 25 57 33 74 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 26 53 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 21 53 28 69 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 27 63 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 25 53 29 70 / 0 0 10 0
Odessa 25 54 30 70 / 0 0 10 0
Wink 25 55 28 74 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...13
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
703 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very low chances for precipitation this weekend (20% or less) with
perhaps better chances for mixed precipitation Sunday night into
Monday, although model uncertainty is great.
- Looking milder this weekend into the first half of next week with
periods of above freezing temperatures likely. Models then trend to
near or below normal for the end of next week (Thursday-Friday).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 237 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show nw flow into the Great
Lakes region this aftn. A well-defined shortwave embedded in this
flow is just n of the MN/ON border. WAA/isentropic ascent in
response to this feature strengthens with height and maximizes and
is strong at around 500mb which is roughly the base of the
widespread high cloudiness that has spread across Upper MI today.
Despite the vigorous nature of the shortwave and fairly strong
forcing per deep layer q-vectors, the lack of moisture at low-levels
is preventing any pcpn development. Only some mid-level cloudiness
around 7kft is noted in ne MN where deep layer forcing is currently
maximized. Temps this aftn have risen into the 20s F across the
board despite the fairly thick cloud high cloudiness.
Aforementioned upstream shortwave will begin weakening as it tracks
across Lake Superior/Upper MI this evening. Low-level air mass will
remain too dry to support any pcpn development. However, late in the
night, weak sfc trof moving over the lake and the resulting
convergence underneath 850mb temps of -10C might be sufficient for
-shsn to develop into Keweenaw County right along the convergence
zone. Only a 15-30pct chc of pcpn is warranted. With cloudiness
thinning out, a wide range of temps is possible tonight, dependent
on where winds fully decouple. Traditional interior cold spots that
normally decouple should see temps fall toward 5F above. Temps will
range up to 15F or so, mainly w to n central high terrain down to
Lake Superior as winds will remain stirring and may be gusty.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
Upper air pattern consists of a shortwave in the desert sw, a
shortwave in the mid Mississippi Valley and one in New England 12z
Sat. Ridging builds into the western U.S. 12z Sun. A shortwave near
Lake Winnipeg 00z Mon passes north of the upper Great Lakes Mon
morning. Area gets sideswiped with some lake effect pcpn in west
wind lake effect snow showers across the far north and east on
Saturday into Saturday night and then Sunday looks dry. There is a
chance for some mixed light pcpn Sunday night with some freezing
rain, snow and rain possible.
In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a broad 500 mb ridge across
Mexico, a trough in the lower Great Lakes and another in the Pacific
NW 12z Tue. A shortwave will move into the upper Great Lakes 12z
Wed. By 12z Thu, a strong ridge is in the western U.S. Upper air
pattern amplifies 12z Fri with the strong ridge in the western U.S.
and a deep trough in the east. Temperatures go from above normal on
Tue and Wed to below normal Thu and near normal on Fri. More mixed
pcpn is possible Monday night and again for Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 701 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
VFR conditions at IWD and SAW for the duration of TAF period. At
CMX, though, expect a period of MVFR tomorrow morning under lake
stratocu. Meanwhile, strong west-southwesterly winds will gust
to 20-25 kts at SAW and to 25-30 kts at CMX starting tonight.
Confidence remains too low for mention of LLWS threat at this
time, but will continue to monitor.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
Southwest gales to 35 knots are expected tonight across the west
half of Lake Superior and gale warning still looks good. West winds
of 20 to 30 knots are expected on Saturday before winds diminish
below 20 kt Saturday night into Sunday as a weak trough pushes in
from the north. Southerly winds increase slightly to 20-25 kt Sun
night ahead of the next approaching clipper system, highest over the
east half. After that though, winds generally remain 20 kt or less
Monday into Wednesday under weak high pressure.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for LSZ263-264.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...07