Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/18/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
951 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Windy conditions with very cold temperatures will
continue tonight with lake effect snowfall continuing into tomorrow
and Wednesday morning from the Capital Region and northern Taconics
west to northwest. The winds will gradually decrease Tuesday night
into Wednesday, as a surface high builds in from the west. Max
temperatures will run about 15 to 20 degrees below normal into the
mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 935 PM EST, Wind Advisories extended until
midnight EST, except for Berkshire County where High Wind
Warning remains in effect until Midnight.
Earlier strong winds gusts of 45-55 mph within portions of the
Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires. KALB had peak gust
to 44 KT at 634 PM EST, KAQW 46 KT at 652 PM EST, and KPSF 41
KT at 717 PM EST. We have therefore converted previous High Wind
Warning to a Wind Advisory lasting until midnight, with
previous Wind Advisory extended until midnight as well. High
Wind Warning remains in effect until midnight for Berkshire Co,
where some gusts up to 60 mph remain possible.
Initial data from KALY sounding suggests deep mixing ongoing to
~790 hPa allowing for gusts of up to 50 mph to persist (even
higher across the Berkshires) over the next few hours.
Winds are beginning to trend downward, and expect gusts to
decrease to under 40 mph around midnight.
Also, Lake Effect snowband has migrated north into central
Herkimer County/southwest Hamilton County extending east into
northern Saratoga County and into southern VT. As a weak
shortwave tracks eastward, the band should start settling back
southward through this evening, so areas across the Mohawk
Valley and extending into northern portions of the Capital
Region should receive additional snow showers later this
evening, with some embedded heavier bursts of snow possible
toward midnight in some of these areas. The band could shift
near or just south of I-90 after midnight.
Additional accumulations overnight of 3-6" are expected across
portions of central/southern Herkimer County, especially close
to the Oneida Co border, with 1-3 inches farther east into
Fulton/Montgomery Cos. Scattered accumulations of an inch or two
could extend east into the Capital/Saratoga region with 2-3
inches also possible across some upslope areas of southern VT.
Low temps still on track into the single digits below zero
across the SW Adirondacks, with single digits to lower teens
elsewhere. Combined with some wind, wind chills will drop to 20
to 25 below zero across portions of the SW Adirondacks, and 15
to 20 below across some higher terrain areas of the eastern
Catskills and Berkshires. Cold Weather Advisories are in effect
for these areas overnight through Tuesday morning.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
Key Messages:
- Strong winds continue into early this evening with maximum
wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph. Berkshire County was extended with
the High Wind Warning until midnight.
- Lake effect snow will continue through tonight with locally
heavy amounts especially for the west-central Mohawk Valley
and southwest Adirondacks. Near whiteout conditions at times
in the heavier lake effect bands.
- Bitter cold temperatures with increasing confidence in wind
chills or "feels like" temperatures -10 to -25 F overnight
especially for higher elevations. Cold Weather Advisories are
in place for several locations.
Discussion:
As of 425 pm EST...Intense Low pressure (around 962 hPa)
continues to be situated near the Gulf of St Lawrence based on
the latest RAP this hour. It will begin to occlude and fill
tonight and slightly rise in pressure. A strong sfc pressure
gradient continues across the forecast area late this afternoon
into tonight between the intense sfc low to the northeast and
high pressure over the central Canadian prairies and northern
Plains.
Radar and obs indicate a narrow (only a couple miles wide) but
intermittently very intense lake effect snow band impacting
locations north of the I-90 corridor in the Mohawk Valley
downstream into the northern Capital District, Saratoga Region
and Berkshires. The band lifted back northward and has impacted
the Thruway with near whiteout conditions and accidents. Caution
should be used on the roadways with all the blowing snow from
the gusty winds 40-60 mph. The strongest gusts have been at
North Adams (KAQW) gusting to 63 mph earlier this morning, the
Searsburg, VT gauge on RTE 9 gusted with 58 mph and the Albany
ASOS 52 mph, KPOU ASOS 51 mph and the NYS Mesonet site at
Chestertown 54 mph. The High Wind Warning and Wind Advisories
remain in place into this evening until 7 pm. We did include one
extension for Berkshire County until midnight in collab with
WFO BOX. Gusty winds tend to linger into the early evening
there with the strong sfc pressure gradient and deeper mixing.
We may need to replace some of the High Wind Warnings with Wind
Advisories or a Special Wx Statement for gusts 35-50 mph for
part of the night later. The gradient should slacken slightly
overnight for gusts mainly 30-45 mph from the west to northwest.
The lake effect will continue on a 280-290 degree low-level
trajectory and waver a bit. Another short-wave/sfc trough will
come through and may cause the band to shift slightly southward
again. Lake effect band/bands dip southward into the southern
Herkimer, southern Fulton and Montgomery Counties, where a Lake
Effect Snow Warning remains in effect. This area has been hit
hard today with lots of blowing snow. We could see an additional
3 to 7 inches of snow in the warning areas. The Advisory areas
of Hamilton, northern Herkimer, and northern Fulton Counties
will get 1 to 3 inches or so. The Capital Region, northern
Berkshires, southern Greens, northern Catskills and northern
Taconics an inch or two. Blowing snow continues across most the
winter head lines areas.
We expanded the Cold Weather Advisories for the Berkshires,
Schoharie and northern Fulton Counties with wind chills or feels
like temps of -15 to -20F from 11 pm tonight to 11 am tomorrow.
The Cold Weather Advisories also continues for the southern
Greens, southwest Adirondacks and the eastern Catskills for wind
chills or "feels like temps" of -15 to -25F. It will be frigid
with the blustery conditions. Low temps will be in the single
digits to lower teens with some below zero readings in the
Adirondack Park, southern Greens and high peaks of the
Catskills. Wind chills or "feels like temps" will be -5 to -25F
for the entire area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
- Lake effect snow will continue through Tuesday night with
locally heavy amounts for the western Mohawk Valley and
southwest Adirondacks.
- Windy conditions continue but not as windy as Monday, however
some Wind Advisories may be needed Tue pm.
- Bitter cold temps with increasing confidence of "feels like"
temperatures below -10 to -25 F again Tuesday night into Wed
morning especially for higher elevations.
Discussion:
The latest 3-km NAM and HRRR continue a multi-lake connection
for the western Mohawk Valley and northern Catskills perhaps
grazing the southwest Dacks. The low-level trajectory will
continue to be west to northwest around 290 degrees with the
inversion around 6 kft AGL upstream. We continue the Lake Effect
Snow Warnings for the far reaches of southern Herkimer,
southern Fulton and Montgomery Counties. An additional 2 to 6
inches is possible into the night time period bringing totals to
8 to 16 inches. Winter weather advisories continue for the
southwest Dacks. The sfc pressure gradient remains strong and if
we mix to about 2 kft AGL some 35-40 KT gusts will be possible
over the higher terrain and channeled down the Mohawk Valley
into the Capital Region. Expect west-northwest winds 15-25 mph
with some gusts 30-45 mph. We used the 75th percentile of the
NBM. We may need additional Wind Advisories for part of the
forecast area, but with the present head lines the approach of
taking one down and seeing if another one needed is better.
Cold Weather Advisories go until 11 am for most of the higher
terrain. It will be another very cold day with temps 15-20
degrees below normal. Highs will be in the teens to lower 20s in
the lower elevations and single digits to lower teens over the
hills and mtns.
The lake effect snow begins to weaken and lose any downstream
extension away from the western Mohawk Valley and southwest
Dacks. Additional accumulations Tue night into Wed morning
should be light on the order of 1-3 inches. The head lines may
need to be curtailed early as the low-level inversion lowers and
high pressure builds in. Lows will be zero to 10 below north of
the Capital District/Mohawk Valley and zero to 10 above to the
south. Additional Cold Weather Advisories may be needed for
higher terrain locations Tue night/Wed morning with wind chills
or "feels like temps" -10F to -25F.
High pressure builds in with dry and cold conditions Wed-Wed
night. Some partly to mostly sunny conditions are expected.
There will still be some wind with northwest winds 10-15 mph
with gusts 20-25 mph in the Capital Region and over the higher
terrain. Temps will still run well below normal in the teens to
lower/spotty mid 20s. Another cold night is expected Wed night,
but not as cold as previous nights with some high clouds
increasing from the south with a coastal low developing near the
Mid Atlantic corridor. Lows will be 5 below over the northern
zones to single digits to around 10F to the south.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
- Below normal temperatures through Friday, with a trend to more
seasonable temperatures next weekend.
- Coastal system for Thursday looks to remain south of region, with
just some snow showers/flurries possible associated with
passing upper level disturbance.
Discussion:
Confidence continues to increase that any steady snowfall associated
with coastal system remains south/east of region, as storm track
looks to remain farther off the coast. 13Z/NBM 24-hour probs for >3"
of snowfall are less than 10% across NW CT, with probs >1" generally
10-20% across mid Hudson Valley/NW CT, with a secondary area of 20-
30% across the eastern Catskills and Capital Region in association
with snow showers from the passing upper level trough late Thursday
into Thursday night.
Some scattered lake effect snow showers could affect the southern
Adirondacks Friday-Saturday, otherwise mainly dry until Monday, when
another coastal low could bring some snow or rain to portions of the
region.
Below normal temperatures continue through Friday, with daytime
highs mainly in the teens/20s and overnight lows in the single
digits/teens, except below zero across portions of the upper Hudson
Valley/southern Adirondacks. Gradual warming for Saturday through
Monday, with highs reaching the 20s/30s Saturday/Sunday, and mainly
30s Monday. Overnight lows in the single digits/teens Sunday
morning, and teens/20s by Monday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main impacts to aviation will be from Lake Effect Snowbands,
where areas of IFR Vsbys/Cigs will be possible overnight into
Tuesday. Current thinking is that current band in vicinity of
KGFL drops back southward toward KALB between 04Z-08Z/Tue with
possible intermittent IFR/LIFR conditions. The snowbands may
also occasionally extend to KPSF as well during that time. Areas
of blowing snow could also lead to occasional MVFR/IFR Vsbys,
especially at KPSF. Outside of any lake effect snow and/or areas
of blowing snow, VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday.
Strong west/northwest winds 15-30 KT with gusts of 40-45 KT
(mainly at KALB and KPSF) will decrease to 10-20 KT with gusts
up to 30 KT after midnight and persisting through Tuesday,
although some gusts up to 35-38 KT could occur Tuesday afternoon
at KALB and KPSF.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Thursday Night to Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for CTZ001-013.
NY...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ032-033-
042-047-058-063-082.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ032-
038>040.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ033-
082.
MA...High Wind Warning until midnight EST tonight for MAZ001-025.
Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for VTZ013>015.
Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ013-014.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
702 PM MST Mon Feb 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heavy mountain snow today, with snow squall potential in the
afternoon. Extremely difficult travel expected at times.
- Light snow and increasing cold today for plains.
- Bitter cold with flurries east of the mountains through
Wednesday. The coldest temperatures and best chance of
accumulating snow will be in the northeast corner of Colorado.
- Another system will bring more snow to the mountains Wednesday
night through Thursday with a chance of snow across the rest of
the area.
- Warming trend on the plains from Thursday into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 236 PM MST Mon Feb 17 2025
Snow continues in the mountains under a moist westerly flow
aloft. Lift from the jet and an unstable airmass (CAPE up to 300
J/kg) is producing a band of heavy snow across parts of Grand,
Gilpin, and southwest Boulder Counties where snowfall rates are
reaching 2-3 inches per hour. Latest HRRR and NAMNest model runs
show heavy snow bands reforming farther south over the I-70
corridor through Summit and Clear Creek Counties later this
afternoon (3-5PM). Travel on I- 70 is expected to become very
difficult around 3-4PM through the area. The snow bands decrease
and end this evening as the jet lift slides south and east of the
area. However, snow showers are expected to continue overnight
under a moist west-northwest flow aloft. These snow showers
continue into Tuesday with another 1 to 4 inches of snow expected.
East of the mountains, cold air has surged southwestward through
Denver with the foothills and Palmer Divide remaining above the
colder air. The banded snow showers are surviving moving off the
higher terrain, but not nearly as intense. However given the cold
temperatures, it won`t take much snow to make roads slippery. The
cold and clouds will linger through tonight and Tuesday. Lows to
range from the single digits below zero over far northeast
Colorado to the single digits above zero over the Denver Metro
area. Highs Tuesday struggle to climb above zero over far
northeast Colorado. For the Front Range, even though models favor
the 20s, would think the northeast winds keep advecting cooler air
in, with highs only in the teens. The southern foothills will
likely be the warmest locations staying above the very cold air
with highs in the 30s. We could see more snow showers Tuesday,
with the best chance late in the day over far northern Colorado as
a jet streak slides across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Monday/...
Issued at 236 PM MST Mon Feb 17 2025
We will see some subsidence set in behind the exiting shortwave
Tuesday evening. Cross sections show drier air aloft but ample
moisture remaining in the lower levels over the mountains and across
the plains. Increasing northwesterly flow aloft is expected through
the evening and overnight as a jet moves over Colorado, which will
help keep orographic snow showers going over the high country into
Wednesday morning. At the surface, persistent high pressure over
southern Canada will keep easterly flow in place across eastern
Colorado, which will continue to usher in cold arctic air. The
easterly upslope flow will persist across the plains overnight,
albeit weak and shallow. With the aid of the jet aloft, light snow
is expected Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning across the
plains, with totals generally below an inch expected, with up to a
few inches possible closer to the Wyoming/Nebraska borders. Models
do show periods of frontogenesis over southeastern Wyoming and
western Nebraska through Wednesday morning, if this pushes slightly
southward, this could lead to some locally heavier bands of snow
pushing into northern Colorado resulting in some heavier localized
amounts, but as of now, totals look to remain below any winter
highlight criteria. Chances for light snow will continue through
Wednesday morning.
The cold air will push its way south and west across the plains into
Wednesday morning. We still expect the coldest temperatures with
this air mass to be Wednesday morning. Hi-res guidance is starting
to show the cold airmass intruding as far west as the foothills now,
with the coldest temperatures still expected over the northeastern
plains, where a Cold Weather Advisory will remain through 11AM
Thursday morning. Have continued to trend temperatures towards the
coldest guidance with this forecast package, in doing so, western
Weld County and eastern Larimer County are now entering into Cold
Weather Advisory criteria, but want to give the hi-res models
another run to see if the criteria timing will increase into
Wednesday afternoon before issuing highlights. Just to note: the
record low temperature for Denver on February 19 (Wednesday) is -4F,
which was set in 2006. As of now, the forecasted low for Wednesday
is -3F, which gives us a solid shot at tying or breaking this record.
Temperatures will begin a warming trend Thursday morning as the
Canadian surface high shifts southeast and surface flow turns to the
SSE across Colorado`s eastern plains. Expect a significant warmup by
Thursday afternoon with high temperatures approaching the mid to
upper 20s along the urban corridor, remaining in the teens east of
Akron.
Deeper moisture will return as another shortwave drops south out of
the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night into Thursday. There are some
discrepancies with regards to strength and trajectory of this
next system, but another round of mountain snow is expected
Thursday. Even with the varying model solutions, cross sections do
show the deeper moisture pushing east onto the plains, and
although varying values, QG fields show increasing upwards motion
through Thursday. This leads to enough confidence for some slight
to chance PoPs across the plains into Friday for now.
Beyond Friday, warmer and drier conditions are expected through the
weekend, with potential to see some widespread 60s across the plains
by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 648 PM MST Mon Feb 17 2025
Another band of snow is expected to move across DIA from about
02Z-03Z. It could bring visibilities and ceilings down to 1/2SM S
FZFG VV002. Thta is if it doesn`t disintigrate before it gets to
DIA. We`ll see. Perhaps I will put that in TEMPO group. Still
not certain whether to leave BR in the TAF after that or not. Will
work on that.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Tuesday for COZ031-033-034.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Tuesday for COZ032.
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
Thursday for COZ042-044-046>049.
Extreme Cold Warning from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
Thursday for COZ050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM....Bonner
AVIATION.....rjk
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
517 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Throughout the short term, west-southwesterly flow aloft is
expected to hold over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
as a mid- upper level trough arriving over the West Coast digs
east- southeastward, passing through Texas Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Downstream of the trough, enhanced mid-upper level forcing
will be conducive to the development of an area of surface low
pressure on the leeside of the Rocky Mountains, which will dig
southeastward and intensify tonight into Tuesday, moving over
eastern Texas by Tuesday evening. In response, slightly enhanced
southerly low level (925/850 mb) flow ahead of the low pressure
will continue to support warm air advection across the County
Warning Area (CWA), via a southeasterly flow, influenced by a high
pressure spreading across the central and southeastern US from a
1045-1050 mb Arctic high centered over the upper Midwest. Lows
tonight are expected to drop into the upper 50s across the
Northern Ranchlands and low to mid 60s across the Rio Grande
Valley and beaches.
As mentioned above, warm air advection is expected to increase
tonight into tomorrow and deterministic guidance is in agreement
that a 30-35 knot low level jet is likely to form as the low
pressure tracks southeastward and intensifies. Have increased
maximum temperatures for Tuesday using a 50/50 blend of forecast
and HRRR as westerly 700 mb winds could lead to downsloping off of
the Sierra Madre as well as compressional heating, resulting in
low to mid 80s across inland portions of Deep South Texas and the
RGV east of I-69 C and mid to upper 80s for areas west of I-69C
along with temperatures in the 70 at the beaches. Have also
increased winds along portions of the RGV and Northern Ranchlands
as winds of 10-20 mph are possible Tuesday afternoon with gusts of
25-30 mph. As the trough and low pressure system continue to pull
away Tuesday night, northerly winds on the backside will aid in
sending the initial surge of high pressure and polar air southward
across the CWA early Wednesday morning with lows reaching into
the 40s and 50s, possibly low 40s across the Northern Ranchlands,
accompanied with breezy conditions by sunrise.
There continues to be a moderate risk for rip currents through
Tuesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Key message:
* A major cool down will occur Wednesday through Saturday behind an
Arctic cold front, but confidence for widespread or significant
freezing or wintry precip is very low (10%) and mainly applicable
to the Brush Country.
Loaded the NBM without significant adjustment. This run, with
respect to the Arctic air mass, seems similar to the run 24 hours
ago, with the coldest temperatures checking in Wednesday night to
Thursday morning (after the Wednesday cold front arrival). We will
realize Wednesday high temps at midnight, since Wednesday high temps
will not recover to the midnight values during the day. Used the
Dynamic Ensemble-based Scenarios for IDSS (DESI), to determine that
there is very low confidence of freezing temps spreading across the
RGV Thursday morning. Confidence is slightly higher (10%), though,
that the Brush Country could dip to freezing or or just below for a
few hours Thursday morning. That doesn`t mean it won`t be cold other
mornings. High temps in the lower 40s to lower 50s will occur on
other mornings and through the weekend as an Arctic air mass arrives
and spreads over the area. Look for highs in the 40s and 50s
Thursday through Saturday. Not until next Sunday will high temps
return to the 60s and 70s. The cool down will be a swing of around
30 degrees from Tuesday to Wednesday and going forward to the rest
of the week.
As an upper-level trough moves across the Central Plains, it will
support an underlying cold front marching south into deep South
Texas and the RGV Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, arriving at
the coast/Brownsville around dawn Wednesday. Southeast portions of
the CWA will see limited rain chances (around 10%) Wednesday morning
as the front moves through the area. A relatively stable airmass and
dry air aloft will likely hinder the development of more widespread
precipitation.
As we move through the latter half of the week, a coastal trough and
weak overrunning pattern will set up. This will lead to increased
cloud cover and rain chances Thursday night through Saturday. A
short wave trough moving across Texas Saturday night will be
followed by upstream ridging and a drier northwest flow. A weak
surface cold front will move through Sunday morning, allowing the
coastal trough to fill and a bubble of high pressure to settle over
South Texas to finish out the long term.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
VFR conditions are expected to give way to MVFR ceilings near
daybreak Tuesday, with VFR ceilings likely returning by mid to
late Tuesday morning as southeasterly winds increase.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Tonight through Tuesday night...Light to moderate south-
southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (3-4 ft) seas are
expected to continue through through the majority of the period,
at least into Tuesday evening, as a high pressure holds steady
across the lower Texas coastal waters. In the late hours of
Tuesday night and into early Wednesday morning, a strong surge of
high pressure is expected to rush southward, bringing a sharp
increase in northerly winds with fresh to strong, possibly near
gale force, sustained winds and gale force gusts by sunrise on
Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories, or possibly a Gale Watch, are
likely to be issued. Additionally, there is a low to medium
(20-30%) chance over the coastal waters with the best chance over
the offshore (20-60 nm) Gulf waters.
Wednesday through Saturday night...
Key message:
* Marine conditions will turn hazardous Wednesday as a strong cold
front moves through. A few gusts to gale force will be possible.
A cold front will push across the waters early Wednesday morning
around dawn. Strong north winds and building seas will take over.
There is brief moderate confidence (30 to 40%) that we could see a
few gusts to gale force on Wednesday, but we will at least see
small craft advisory conditions. Have decided to hold off on a
gale watch this cycle pending better confidence. Conditions will
improve slowly from Wednesday night through Friday night, with
continuing moderate to fresh north to northeast winds. Seas on the
Gulf will remain elevated, meaning that we can probably expect
small craft advisory conditions on the Gulf from Wednesday
(assuming no gales) through the end of the long term marine
forecast period. Winds will should decrease below 20 knots on
Thursday, but Gulf seas will remain elevated into the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 64 84 52 65 / 0 10 0 10
HARLINGEN 61 84 47 61 / 0 10 0 10
MCALLEN 64 88 49 62 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 59 86 47 60 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 72 52 61 / 0 10 10 10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 63 79 49 63 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....54-BHM
AVIATION...56-Hallman
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
556 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Winter storm expected to impact region tonight through
tomorrow night.
- 4 (north) to 7 (south) inches is possible to likely for the
KC metro.
- Up to 9 inches possible well south of the KC metro from Linn
County KS to Henry County MO.
- Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills tonight through
Friday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Snow from this morning and earlier this afternoon across
northern Missouri has mostly come to an end, with only a few
flurries remaining. This produced snow totals on the order of 1
to 3 inches. We are currently in a lull period, but high
resolution guidance (18z HRRR and NAM Nest) suggests the
development of an east west oriented FGEN band of snow
developing in the general vicinity of the US Highway 36
corridor to Interstate 70 corridor by around 9 PM and continuing
into late tonight. This may drop a quick 1 to 2 inches of snow
in these locations before another lull period overnight tonight
into early tomorrow morning.
By late tonight, Accumulating snow should then re enter the
region from the west after 6 AM tomorrow morning, overspreading
the region from west to east through the remainder of the
morning hours. Snow should continue through the afternoon,
coming to an end from west to east by tomorrow night. The
primary forecast changes were a slight southward shift of the 5+
inch snow totals, and a tighter gradient on the northern edge.
Snow totals across the KC metro should range from 4 (north) to
6-7 inches (south). Up to 8 (and maybe even 9) inches will be
possible across our far southern counties (Linn KS, Bates and
Henry MO). Confidence with respect to snow totals is moderate.
Probabilistic guidance has trended downward on totals today
(and has been trending downward overall over the past couple
days), with the NBM only giving downtown KC a 50% chance for
snow to exceed 4" (and only a 27% chance to exceed 6").
Regardless, with very cold temperatures, accumulating snow, and
breezy northeasterly winds, travel will likely be difficult
tomorrow within the winter storm warning area.
Aside from the snow, bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills
arrive tonight and continue through the week. For tomorrow,
highs should only reach the single digits, with lows tomorrow
night near to a few degrees below zero (record low at MCI is
possible). By Wednesday, the closed 500 mb low moves into
eastern Iowa, with a 1045 mb surface high building into the
Central Plains. This will yield significantly below normal
temperatures across much of the central CONUS. Record breaking
cold is expected for Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with
MCI forecast to drop to 11 below zero. This would break the
previous record of 3 below zero set back in 1936. Record
breaking cold is also likely for Thursday night/Friday morning.
Meanwhile, wind chills are likely to drop to 15 to 25 degrees
below zero tonight and tomorrow night. As such, a cold weather
advisory goes into effect at 9 pm tonight and continues through
6 pm Wednesday. The coldest wind chills will occur on Wednesday
night, with 20 to 30 degrees below zero. As of now, we have
elected to keep the extreme cold watch, but its possible at
least NW Missouri ends up in an extreme cold warning for
Wednesday night/Thursday morning with the cold weather advisory
continuing elsewhere.
Thankfully, a warming trend begins on Friday, and continues into
the weekend and early next week. Temperatures are likely to finally
rise above freezing on Saturday afternoon, with highs in the 50s
forecast by Monday. No precipitation is in the forecast after
snow comes to an end tomorrow night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Generally MVFR to IFR conditions expected through the period.
Light snow is restarting across NW MO. This band of -SN slowly
works its way southward over the next few hours. Through the
night, a larger winter system builds in from the south. Drier
air across far northern MO is expected to keep heavier snowfall
south of the MO River.
Snow remains through much of the period for MCI and terminals
south. Periods of heavy snowfall as well as some breaks in the
snowfall are anticipated causing large fluctuations in VIS.
Winds persist from the northeast with gusts to around ~15-20
knots at times.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Minimum Temperature Records | Coldest Maximum Temperatures
Kansas City Kansas City
02-18 -7|1903 02-18 11|1936
02-19 -3|1936 02-19 11|1929
02-20 2|1918 02-20 12|1918
02-21 0|1939 02-21 19|1963
St. Joseph St. Joseph
02-18 -16|1978 02-18 8|1936
02-19 -10|2015 02-19 10|1929
02-20 -1|1918 02-20 9|1918
02-21 1|1918 02-21 14|1963
Normal Low Temperatures | Normal High Temperatures
Kansas City Kansas City
02-18 24 02-18 45
02-19 25 02-19 45
02-20 25 02-20 45
02-21 25 02-21 46
St. Joseph St. Joseph
02-18 22 02-18 44
02-19 22 02-19 44
02-20 23 02-20 44
02-21 23 02-21 45
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for
MOZ011>013-020>022-030>033-039-040-046.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Wednesday for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054.
Extreme Cold Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
morning for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>032-037>039-
043-044.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ028-029-
037-038-043>045-053-054.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ025-
102.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Wednesday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
Extreme Cold Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
morning for KSZ025-057-102>105.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ057-060-
103>105.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Pesel
CLIMATE...CDB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
905 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Subzero wind chills again tonight and early Tuesday
- Accumulating snow is expected Tuesday night. The highest amounts
of an inch or two will be south of Bloomington.
- Temperatures will remain brutally cold through the week with
moderating temperatures starting this weekend.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
- Cloudy, very cold, with flurries possible Overnight.
Surface analysis late this evening shows a ridge or arctic high
pressure stretching from the northern plains, across IA to southern
Indiana and eastern KY. Cold, arctic air has settled across Central
Indiana with temperatures in the teens and dew points in the single
digits. A moderate pressure gradient remains across Central Indiana.
This was allowing for wind chill values from -2 to around 10 across
the forecast area. Water vapor across the area shows nearly zonal
flow across Central Indiana however this zonal flow was a part of a
very broad and elongated cyclonic circulation centered near the Gulf
of St. Lawrence that stretched westward across the Canadian
provinces to Alberta. Water vapor showed a stream of Pacific
moisture streaming across Baja California to Kansas and MO. Some of
that was resulting in snow showers or flurries across
Kansas/Missouri and even eastern IL.
Overnight, models continue to suggest the moderate pressure gradient
across the area will remain in place, allowing for winds around 10
mph while cold air advection continues. HRRR fails to pick up on the
ongoing flurries or suggest their progress across the area. At the
moment, it appears too dry within the lower levels as forecast
soundings through the night do not suggest saturation there at any
point. Thus feel the bulk of any precipitation will remain as
flurries or virga. Ceilings across the area are failing to be
present below 4-5,000 feet and in many cases are 80,000 to 120,000
feet, indicative of dry air. Thus will limit any precipitation
chances overnight, but keep the flurry mention.
Given the cloud cover and expected winds, models show wind chill
values near -10 across the Kokomo and Lafayette areas, with single
digits at most other locations. Given this ongoing Cold Weather
advisory seems on the mark, with single digit lows at most spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 235 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
A baroclinic zone set up to the southwest of the area along with
cold surface high pressure will be the influences in
the weather across central Indiana during the short term.
Clouds will continue to increase across central Indiana for the
remainder of the afternoon as moisture aligns with the baroclinic
zone. Isentropic forcing to the west along this zone will generate
some light snow across Illinois, but this should have a hard time
making it into central Indiana as it moves away from forcing and
encounters very dry low levels.
Will add some flurries to portions of the western forecast area
later this afternoon as some flakes may survive the dry low levels.
Similar conditions will persist tonight into early Tuesday, but
some isentropic forcing will be close to or even in the southwestern
portions of the area. Short term models are more bullish with snow
coverage, dropping a few tenths of snow across the southern forecast
area. Other models have little if any accumulating snow.
With the surface high still bringing in very dry low level air, the
snow will still have to fight to reach the ground. Will keep PoPs
low for now and confined to the southwest third or so of the area
(with flurries extending farther northeast from there). Will leave
out any accumulation for now.
Will have to watch though, because if more of the snow reaches the
ground, given it`s fluffy nature in the cold airmass, accumulations
up to around a half inch could occur quickly (which could have an
impact on morning drivers in the southwest).
The baroclinic zone will get pushed southwest some for the
remainder of Tuesday, and the cold high pressure will remain
dominant at the surface. Will keep some low PoPs going in the
southwest. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy.
Looking at temperatures, even with clouds around readings will still
fall back into the low single digits above zero north to around 10
far south. With the center of the surface high well north, winds
will still be up, pushing wind chills to near Cold Advisory numbers
(-10). However, for now, looks like if those numbers are reached it
won`t be for long enough for an Advisory to be issued. Will continue
with a SPS for cold.
With the cold start and plentiful clouds around, highs on Tuesday
will be in the teens most areas.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 235 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Tuesday Night through Wednesday...
An upper low will close off over the upper Midwest Tuesday night as
a lead short wave is ejected around the base of the low and into the
Ohio Valley. This synoptic forcing along with a 140 knot upper jet
nearby and deep moisture through a deep dendritic growth zone per Hi-
Res soundings will support at least some light snow accumulation and
mainly over areas well south of I-70. Snow ratios of 16-20:1 could
result in higher than anticipated amounts for now will roll with
near WPC amounts of an inch or two south of Bloomington and much
lesser amounts further north.
The system will move to the east on Wednesday which should any
accumulating snow. Meanwhile, cold advection around a 1050 millibar
Arctic high over the Dakotas will continue to filter in the brutally
cold temperatures with overnight lows mostly in the single digits
and wind chills as cold as a degree or two below zero over northern
sections.
Wednesday Night through Monday...
The cold advection will continue through late week as the Arctic
high plunges south into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Friday. The
coldest temperatures and lowest wind chills look to be Wednesday
night with lows in the single digits and wind chills to 10 or more
degrees below zero over the Upper Wabash Valley, where some clearing
is possible per model soundings. Could see a few snow showers or
flurries Wednesday night as the Upper Midwest closed low moves
through but with moisture lacking, only expect another dusting or so.
The weekend will see moderating temperatures as the high moves to
the south. Temperatures will likely return to above normal in the
upper 30s to lower 40s by Sunday and even warmer next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025
Impacts:
- Mainly VFR this TAF period
Discussion:
nearly zonal flow aloft along with cold high pressure in place at
the surface will allow for mainly VFR conditions this period. Models
indicate a few weak upper level disturbances passing within the
flow. This will bring continued cloud cover across the TAF sites,
most of which should be VFR.
Forecast soundings continue to show very dry air within the lower
levels. Some of these clouds may be capable of producing some snow
showers or flurries, but given the dry air at the surface, this
should be limited for virga or only trace amounts Thus have used
VCSH mention at HUF/IND and BMG as some of this moisture and
forcing passes across southern Indiana.
Clouds and VFR ceilings are expected to continue on Tuesday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for INZ021-028>031-
035>041-043>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...Puma
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
907 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 907 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
- A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the Interstate 40
corridor from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. 3 to
5 inches of snow are expected along and north of a line from
Wynne AR to Jackson TN to Camden, TN. A mixture of sleet and
light freezing rain may accompany the snow along and south of
this line, including the Memphis metro.
- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for areas roughly
south of Interstate 40 Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning. A light mixture of freezing rain, sleet and snow is
expected to cause slippery roads.
- There remains greater than normal uncertainty on snow amounts
along and south of the Interstate 40 corridor, due the
presence of mixed winter precipitation Tuesday evening and the
potential for banded snow after midnight Tuesday night.
- Record cold temperatures are forecast for the mid to late
portion of this week behind the passage of a strong Arctic cold
front Tuesday night. A sizable portion of the Midsouth will
remain below freezing for 72 hours or more. Wind chills will
drop to the single digits over the Midsouth Wednesday morning.
Colder wind chills are forecast Thursday morning, dropping
below zero over West Tennessee, eastern Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Surface analysis places a 1043 mb surface high over South Dakota
this evening. Meanwhile, a surface low is located over portions of
northeast New Mexico. GOES-16 satellite trends show some mid and
high clouds beginning to spread across the Mid-South.
Temperatures as of 8 PM CST are in the 30s areawide. Increasing
clouds are expected for the remainder of the night with lows in
the middle to upper 20s north of I-40 and upper 20s to lower 30s
elsewhere. Current forecast remains in excellent shape overall and
no updates are necessary at this time.
00Z model data is slowly beginning to arrive and we`ll be further
assessing the winter weather potential for later Tuesday into
Tuesday night for the Mid-South. The 00Z NAM thus far is still the
warmer solution indicating a potential for some mixed
precipitation at the onset along and south of the I-40 corridor and
gradually transitioning to snow towards Wednesday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
A complex winter weather pattern is setting up for the Midsouth.
A deepening northern branch trough will move east-southeast from
the Great Plains into the MS River Valley. This system appears
bimodal in medium range guidance, with a distinct wave lifting
eastward across southern LA/MS, and banded baroclinic leaf setting
up over the Midsouth and Lower OH River Valley. Strong midlevel
frontogenesis will develop from the central plains into the lower
OH River Valley, aided by the right entrance region of a 150kt
upper jet streak. The strong frontogenetic forcing and lift will
occur in the -12 to -18C dendritic growth zone. Frontogenesis
will slowly weaken through the night, as it drops southeast
through the Midsouth.
As expected, WPC HREFv3 Snowband Probability Tracker shows a
potential for east-west bands of locally higher snow amounts
along and north of I-40. In addition, an HRRR component indicates
banding potential further south, between upper jet cores over
northeast MS. Further complicating the guidance picture, the last
couple runs of the NBM has shown a decrease in projected snow
amounts across the board, about the time CAMs joined in input.
NBM deterministic forecast for Millington has decreased to 0.9
inches, while the LREF remains steady around Winter Storm Warning
criteria of 3 inches. Official snow forecast grids are higher than
the deterministic NBM and winter weather headlines are heavily
based on LREF input. Additional weight has been given to the
potential impacts of sleet and light freezing rain. So while not
all of Shelby County is forecast to receive 3 inches, there is a
3 inch potential across the northern part of the county, and
perhaps some impactful mixture of sleet and lesser snow amounts
across the southern part of the metro.
Once the winter precip ends early Wednesday, we will be left with
Arctic cold. Temperatures this morning had dropped to around -45F
over central Saskatchewan, indicative of the Arctic airmass
strength. GFS and ECMWF project the central pressure of this
Arctic high to reach 1053mb as it enters the Dakotas on Tuesday.
The Arctic high will drop nearly southward through the Great
Plains Wednesday and Thursday and settle into the OH River Valley
on Friday. Across the Midsouth, Wednesday morning minimum wind
chills will prevail in the single digits, likely necessitating a
Cold Weather Advisory issuance tonight. Thursday morning`s wind
chills will be as much as 5 degrees colder, perhaps nearing
Extreme Cold Warning Criteria.
Despite low amplitude ridging aloft, Friday`s Temperatures will
average 15 to 25 degrees below normal. This will set us up for one
more cold night Friday night, as we remain under the western
periphery of the departing Arctic surface high pressure. Medium
range guidance shows a potential upper trough passage over the
weekend, though timing, placement and strength of this feature
remains in question.
Looking beyond the seven day forecast for good news, NBM shows
high temps in the 60s, lows in the 40s early next week.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025
Tough TAFs this issuance. Northeast winds will begin to gust up to
30 kts at JBR around 13Z and spread southeast through the TAF
period ahead of an upper low. This upper low will also lower cigs
from VFR to MVFR around this same timeframe. Biggest question
this issuance is when precip will transition from -RAPL to -SN.
Best timing matching up with the upper low movement, sounding
data, and guidance looks like 23Z at JBR and 03Z at MEM. A
lowering to IFR will be possible with this wintry precip movement.
However, confidence was higher with prevailing MVFR at this time.
AEH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday for
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday
for ARZ049-058.
MO...Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday for
MOZ113-115.
MS...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday
for MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday for
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>052-088.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to noon CST Wednesday
for TNZ053>055-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJC
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AEH