Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/13/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
505 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread wind chills between 10 and 30 below zero are
expected through Thursday morning. Cold Weather Advisories
have been issued.
- Strong winds and the potential for travel impacts due to
blowing snow will return to the wind prone areas tonight and
may spread to adjacent zones Thursday afternoon. High Wind
Watches/Warnings have been issued.
- Heavy mountain snowfall returns in force Thursday night and
will continue into the weekend. The lower elevations will see
chances for snow Friday and Saturday. Winter Storm Watches
have been issued for the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025
Temperatures have slowly warmed over the course of the day, with
most locations finally above zero. Snow has also ended across the
area with a few lingering clouds. As the trough that brought the
snow pushes further eastward, lingering energy at the tail-end
with some jet energy could spark some afternoon snow showers.
The RAP shows a band of frontogenesis over southeast Wyoming
this afternoon. Co-located with this band is where the HRRR
shows snow showers developing. Although additional snow
accumulation is not expected with these showers, brief
visibility drops and drifting snow could cause travel impacts.
Snow showers will dissipate after the sun goes down as the
frontogenesis band weakens considerably.
With mostly clear skies expected overnight, efficient radiational
cooling is expected. Visible satellite shows an extensive area of
snow cover over the CWA as well which will help facilitate the
rapid cooling of temperatures once the sun sets. Still some
uncertainty as far as low temperatures go Wednesday night. The
ECMWF keeps the arctic front locked in place overnight, however,
the GFS starts to advect warmer 700 mb air aloft by Wednesday
evening. Regardless of this, it will still be cold overnight
with most locations seeing temperatures below zero; it is just
a matter of how far below zero temperatures fall. Winds will
also pick up overnight as yet another trough begins to push into
Wyoming. The combination of cold and wind will likely lead to
bitter cold wind chills. The previous shift issued a Cold
Weather Advisory for the Nebraska panhandle and along most of
the Interstate 80 corridor in Wyoming. With this forecast
package, decided to expand the Cold Weather Advisory to include
Goshen and central Carbon Counties. Based off temperatures and
wind, it looks like these locations could also see wind chills
20 below. It is worth mentioning that wind could potentially be
a limiting factor with wind chills overnight. Yes, winds will
add to the chill, however, downsloping winds could keep
overnight temperatures warmer than anticipated. This will in
turn lead to wind chills that may not hit Cold Weather Advisory
criteria. Cold Weather Advisories are in effect through 8 AM
Thursday morning, at which point temperatures will start to
quickly warm up.
As previously mentioned, winds will begin to pick up overnight as a
trough enters Wyoming. Although there will be little change in the
less than impressive MSLP gradients, 700 mb CAG-CPR height gradients
will increase ahead of the this trough. Elevated height gradients
above 50 meters will help increase wind speeds aloft later tonight.
750 mb wind speeds max out around 50 meters over the usual southeast
Wyoming wind prones. Decent subsidence could get these winds down to
the surface late tonight and during the morning hours tomorrow. High
Wind Watches were already in place from the previous shift for the
wind prones. Had the most confidence in upgrading Arlington due to
the height gradients and in-house guidance. Decided to leave the
High Wind Watches for the South Laramie Range and Bordeaux as is.
With the GFS and NAM showing a surface trough sitting directly over
the Laramie Range, it will be difficult, but not impossible to get
high winds. Subsidence is strong enough with high enough wind speeds
aloft, but it is possible this will not be enough. Even in-house
guidance is hesitant to throw out high winds for these locations.
Gusty winds with gusts over 45 MPH are still likely, but do not have
the confidence at this time to upgrade. The coming shifts will have
to keep watch to see if an upgrade is needed later tonight.
Another almost secondary high wind event looks possible late
Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning. With the trough axis
progged to move into the CWA during this time, winds aloft over
Carbon County will increase rapidly. 700 mb winds increase up
to 65 kts in southwest flow. High winds will be possible in
central Carbon County and the Muddy Gap zone in addition to
Arlington. Strong subsidence will also exist with this event
which could get these winds down to the surface. A High Wind
Watch is already in place for central Carbon County and Muddy
Gap. Decided to add Converse County to a High Wind Watch as well
for Thursday night. Strong subsidence and downsloping
southwesterlies could cause areas along Interstate 80 to gust
over 55 MPH. In-house guidance also is pinging these areas for
elevated to high winds.
This next trough will also bring ample moisture to the mountain
zones. Starting Thursday evening, the NAEFS shows IVT values in the
90th percentile across the CWA. Even PWATs are in the 90th
percentile for NAEFS climatology Thursday night as well. Given these
values, ample mountain snowfall is expected. Snow could start as
early as Thursday afternoon, but the heaviest rates are expected
Thursday night and Friday morning before mid-level moisture starts
to decrease Friday afternoon. Did issue a Winter Storm Watch for the
Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges. For most of the event, mid-level flow
will be west to southwest. This will lead to good orographic driven
snow accumulation for the Sierra Madre Range. As a result, the
Snowys will likely be shadowed and see lower snowfall totals at the
end of this event. The Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Thursday
evening to Friday evening as snowfall rates begin to decrease.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025
Active weather will continue through the long-term forecast period.
Persistent west to northwest flow will allow several waves of energy
to pass through the central Rockies and high plains, each with the
opportunity for precipitation in the mountains and some light
precipitation east of I-25. After the passage of a trough axis on
Friday night, west-northwest flow will keep light to moderate snow
going in the mountains of southeast Wyoming on Saturday morning into
Saturday afternoon. The first of the aforementioned waves of energy
will move through on Saturday evening in the form of a weak
shortwave/vort max over the northern high plains. This system will
bring height falls and an enhanced shot of cold air on Friday
afternoon and evening, as well as briefly enhancing snow rates in
the mountains. East of the high terrain, forecast soundings show
increased saturation in the post-frontal boundary layer, in addition
to more favorable near-surface wind vectors. Some light snow showers
are possible east of I-25 as well as into the basins of southeast
Wyoming, mainly centered around the afternoon/early evening hours on
Saturday before this system rapidly departs eastward. Ensemble
guidance does not show much in the way of appreciable accumulations,
however a few areas such as Cheyenne and Laramie may pick up a quick
half-inch of snow.
Fast northwest flow and a fairly saturated mid and upper-level
sounding profile will continue throughout much of the Sunday to
early-next-week timeframe. At this stage, Sunday looks like the
driest day over our CWA in most ensemble guidance as we will be in-
between systems, but not necessarily in any form of ridging.
Therefore, expect cool temperatures to continue with partly sunny
skies. By Monday-Wednesday, a renewed stream of Pacific moisture
will traverse the central and northern Rockies eastward into the
high plains. This weather pattern favors westerly upslope and
mountain snows with this fairly long-duration event, however there
will be some opportunity for snow in the lower elevation basins as
well as in the high plains. The first opportunity for snow will come
on Sunday night into Monday morning, as weak frontogenesis develops
over the east-central counties of Wyoming into the Nebraska
panhandle. Another opportunity for snow will come on Tuesday through
the day as a frontal system drops south over the high plains,
associated with a broad trough moving east through the Rockies.
Forecast certainly with this second wave of moisture, colder air,
and possible upslope snow in the high plains is much less certain
due to a high degree of spread in ensemble guidance. Wind fields
range from favorable upslope to broad downslope depending on where
any surface low pressure systems form and how quickly the main vort
max ejects eastward. What is more certain is another period of high
winds in the Wyoming wind prone corridors which will last from
roughly Sunday evening through Monday ahead of this system as strong
gradients develop over the Wyoming higher terrain. Overall, forecast
confidence is moderate through the long term with temperatures
favoring near to below normal through the period, with above normal
precipitation in the higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 458 PM MST Wed Feb 12 2025
Northwest flow aloft tonight will become west on Thursday as the
coldest air retreats off to the east.
Wyoming TAFS...Ceilings will be near 3500 feet through 02Z, with
occasional light snow at Rawlins reducing visibilities to
4 miles and ceilings to 2500 feet, then clear skies will
prevail until 15Z, then scattered clouds from 12000 to
15000 feet will occur. Expect low level wind shear at Laramie
from 09Z to 15Z, and at Cheyenne from 06Z to 15Z. Winds will
gust to 35 knots at Rawlins, to 30 knots at Laramie after 09Z,
and to 25 knots at Cheyenne after 15Z Thursday.
Nebraska TAFS...Mostly clear skies will prevail, with scattered
clouds near 15000 feet after 15Z Thursday. Expect low level wind
shear at Scottsbluff from 12Z to 18Z.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
Thursday for WYZ108>110-113-115>119.
High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning
for WYZ101.
High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning
for WYZ104-109.
High Wind Watch from 11 PM MST this evening through Thursday
morning for WYZ106-116.
High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Friday
for WYZ110.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
afternoon for WYZ112-114.
NE...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
Thursday for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...RUBIN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
657 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025
...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025
Key Messages:
- A Flood Watch remains in effect for north Georgia and the
northern portions of the Atlanta metro from this afternoon until
Thursday morning. Moderate to heavy rain is currently falling across
the watch area. Another 1-3" of rain is expected to fall with
locally higher amounts of up to 4" possible where repeated rounds of
precipitation occur. TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN when encountering
flooded roadways.
- A few strong to severe storms may be possible overnight
Wednesday in primarily west central Georgia. Slight risk into metro
is very conditional, given wedge should make surface based
convection challenging. In west central Georgia, QLCS mode will be
possible, with main threats strong to severe winds and a tornado or
two.
Forecast:
Challenging forecast continues to unfold for tonight, with competing
effects of strong moisture return at the surface and stout wedge/CAD
that is being reinforced by rain and supported by surface high
pressure up till a cold front moves into the area tonight. The
impacts of this will be that an area around approximately
Heard/Coweta/Troup/Meriwether has pretty high uncertainty on
whether or not we can get enough surface based moisture return to
allow for surface based storms which could be severe and have all
hazards present. To the north, expect mostly rain and thunder, and
to the south, at least for west central Georgia, including the
Columbus metro, strong to severe storms will be possible.
The synoptic setup sees a potent upper level trough that is lifting
out of the desert SW into the southeast today. That trough is tapped
into some very deep subtropical moisture, with PWATs approaching or
even exceeding 1.25-1.5" over a wide area within the broad synoptic
lift driven by the system. That moisture is overrunning three
separate features - first, on old frontal boundary that is already
falling apart near the Gulf coast, second, a rain cooled air mass,
the boundary of which can currently be denoted by sharp line of
cumulus over south central Alabama, and third, strong wedge/CAD that
has set up over north and parts of central Georgia that is being
reinforced by both rain and surface high across NE CONUS.
Temperature differences between the warm Gulf air across southern GA
and the rain cooled and wedge airmass across central and north GA is
stark, with near 30 degree F differences noted at station as little
as 30 miles apart (Cordele to Perry), demonstrating some of the
impressive dynamics at play with this system.
Models are notably struggling with the CAD as expected. As an
example, each run of the HRRR this afternoon has had to slow the
northward progression of the Gulf air into central GA. This is a
well known bias, and is why temperatures have been lowered compared
to guidance for the past several forecast packages for today.
Satellite observations as well as ground stations seem to show that
the northward progression of Gulf air in at least west central
Georgia may have finally hit a bit of a more challenging wall that
it can`t quite seem to mix out as quickly. This is likely due to
encountered air that is rain cooled within the wedge. Erosion on the
east side of central Georgia will likely continue for a few more
counties, so enjoy going from the 50s and 60s to 70s and 80s in a
matter of an hour or two in those areas.
Moisture continues to be lifted isentropically over the top of cold
air, and with the high PWATs, is dumping rainfall quite efficiently
over north Georgia and metro Atlanta. MRMS estimates show widespread
1-3 inches of rain has already fallen, and radar estimates look as
though they may be a bit underdone compared to observations coming
in from some rain gauges. Expecting to see another 1-3" of rain
across the area tonight. This will lead to flooding concerns across
north Georgia and the metro. Several rivers are starting to see
quick rises with a few flood warnings already issued. This will
become more widespread overnight. Numerous river gages are forecast
to go Minor flood stage, and flood guidance continues to show the
possibility of seeing a few rivers into Moderate. The Flood Watch
continues until 7 am tomorrow morning. Please remember to use
caution if you encounter any flooding - do not attempt to cross
flooded roadways.
The final aspect to talk about is the severe potential tonight into
the early morning hours Thursday. As mentioned above, this is the
most challenging part of this storm. Still believe that the northern
end of the Slight/Marginal Risk from SPC is extremely conditional,
especially into the Atlanta metro. Experience and model bias says
that the hires is likely eroding the CAD too quickly as the cold
front moves into the area tonight with the main push of the
surface low to the north. This would eliminate the possibility of
surface based convection - and indeed, many of the models seem to
be slowly backing to the south with moisture return tonight. 17Z
HRRR only brings STP > 1 into areas around and just north of
Columbus, for instance. That said, the outlook in the areas can be
viewed as a worst case scenario, where IF erosion of the wedge is
more intense (and, this could be possible given the intensity of
the LLJ at > 60 kts creating some aggressive mixing) surface based
convection will be possible. As for the rest of the parameter
space in central Georgia (especially near Columbus), models show
STP values of around 1-2. Significant divergence aloft will be in
place along the right entrance region of a stout jet streak and
impressive shear profiles will be in place and enhanced by some
low level backing near the edge of the CAD/wedge. SRH values of
0-1 km are 200-300 m^2/s^2 (though caution needs to be used when
evaluating this to ensure parcels are indeed surface based). Some
streamwise vorticity enhancement will be possible for any surface
based storm that can find the "edge of the wedge". Cold front
pushing in is fairly potent, though convergence without the aid of
some of the backing due to the wedge front isn`t all that
impressive given a SW wind direction at the surface ahead of it.
Thinking any severe mode for Georgia will likely be QLCS in
variety. The main hazards would be strong to severe winds, and the
possibility of some tornado spin ups.
Front continues to push through the area tomorrow morning. Severe
threat should decrease quickly with eastward extent thanks to losing
upper level support. Colder air will begin to filter in behind the
front. In parts of north Georgia, we might actually see the sun for
the first time in what feels like ages. Temperatures tomorrow night
will return to more winter-like, with lows in the 20s, 30s, and
upper 40s across north and central Georgia by Friday morning. Enjoy
the respite from rain because more is coming - see below.
Lusk
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025
At a glance:
- Brief reprieve from rainfall on Friday
- Second round of heavy rain and yet another conditional severe
threat overnight Saturday into Sunday
As we kick off the extended range on Friday morning, a strong
(nearly 1040mb) surface high will move in across the Southeast,
shifting slowly eastward until its center is off the coast of the
Eastern Seaboard at the start of the weekend. Perhaps unsurprisingly
with such strong forcing at the surface, classic cold air damming is
progged to set up throughout the course of the day Friday -- with
characteristic U-shaped isobars banking up against the Appalachians.
The combination of high pressure at the surface and a swath of dry
air rounding the base of a broader trough present at the mid-levels
will support a fleeting period of dry weather on Friday. Highs in
the mid-50s to lower-70s and dewpoints in the 30s to 40s by the
afternoon will make for a pleasant end to the week...
...but don`t get too comfortable. A mid-level trough is progged to
dig across the Mountain West and into the ArkLaTex Saturday into
Sunday. Coincident with the strongest shortwave embedded within the
broader trough, resultant mass response supports the development of
a low pressure system at the surface. We`re expecting a final,
punctuating round of rainfall and conditional chances for severe
weather as the associated line of convection makes its way across
north and central Georgia overnight Saturday into Sunday.
Severe chances: Much like Wednesday/Thursday`s event, the brunt of
the favorable forcing overlap will occur late Saturday night/early
Sunday morning, making this a primarily nocturnal event (changes in
timing are possible, perhaps even likely as this event enters the
short term). We`re not yet in range of HiRes or intermediary
guidance, but global models suggest the presence of a 40-50kt low
level jet at 925 mb as the line is trekking southeastward. As has
been the case recently, we`ll be fighting against a lingering wedge
for areas along and east of the Atlanta Metro for thermodynamics.
Wind profile differences along the outer edge of the wedge boundary
will serve to further locally enhance hodograph curvature. Dewpoints
look to be in the 60s outside of the wedge airmass, but it remains
to be seen if we materialize any surface-based instability. It won`t
take much with the forecast kinematics, and we`re currently sitting
on a very narrow corridor on the order of 50-100 J/kg SBCAPE. We`re
solidly within high-shear, low-CAPE season, and if trends continue,
it appears that we`ll be looking at primarily QLCS-type hazards
(isolated damaging wind gusts and the potential for a tornado within
any bulges, kinks, or breaks in the line of convection). The SPC has
outlined a 15% area in their Day 4 (7AM Saturday through 7AM Sunday)
Convective Outlook, and we`ll be keeping an eye on potential
upgrades and specific hazard probabilities over the next few days.
Precipitation/flooding chances: The rebound period between our
midweek rainfall and our weekend rainfall looks to be approximately
48 hours or so, and rivers are likely to remain at elevated stages
at the onset of this final round of precipitation. Given antecedent
conditions, it will not take much to reinvigorate chances for flash
flooding and river flooding. Highest NBM probabilities for an inch
or more rainfall over the 48-hour period ending 7AM Monday are once
again focused across locales in north Georgia: 76% for Atlanta, 81%
for Rome, 80% for Gainesville, 86% for Dalton, and 90% for Ellijay.
For 2 inches or greater over the same 48-hour period, 35-45%
probabilities for portions of far north Georgia. In general, blanket
totals of an additional 1-2" are possible CWA-wide late Saturday
through early Monday, with terrain-enhanced locally higher amounts
up to a reasonable worst case (90th percentile) of 3-3.5". A
Slight (level 2 out of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been
issued by WPC for portions of northwest Georgia coincident with
highest forecast rainfall totals.
Moving into Monday and beyond, yet another surface high moves in on
the heels of the precipitation (with dry, quasi-zonal flow at the
mid-levels), which will support another period of dry and relatively
tranquil weather through midweek. In general, expect highs in the
lower 50s to mid-60s through the long term. The exceptions will be
the warmest day over the next week -- Sunday -- which may see
highs in the 60s to mid-70s, and the "coldest" -- Monday -- with
highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Lows will follow a similar trend,
primarily in the upper-20s to mid-40s, aside from Sunday morning
(upper 40s to lower 60s) and Monday morning (teens to lower-30s).
96
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025
The heavier rain has shifted north of the TAF sites but low clouds
in the 004-007 range will persist for just about everyone (except
KCSG) until the next wave of precip moves across later tonight. As
the main front/convection moves across the area between ~04z and
10z, pockets of heavy rain will occur, driving vsby`s down while
maintaining low cigs. TS likely everywhere - even north of the
"wedge" as elevated instability exists - but the greatest risk for
TS will be south from KCSG to KMCN overnight. Convection quickly
moves east of the area after 12z with improving cigs as gusty NW
winds develop. All sites should see clear skies by late afternoon.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium to High on all elements.
DJN.83
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 39 64 32 54 / 90 50 0 0
Atlanta 42 59 33 55 / 100 30 0 0
Blairsville 42 52 23 51 / 100 10 0 0
Cartersville 42 56 27 55 / 100 10 0 0
Columbus 61 67 37 61 / 90 60 0 0
Gainesville 37 60 31 52 / 100 20 0 0
Macon 55 69 37 60 / 80 80 0 0
Rome 43 55 26 56 / 100 0 0 0
Peachtree City 46 61 30 57 / 90 30 0 0
Vidalia 63 72 45 61 / 20 90 10 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-030>035-041>048-052>057-066>068.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...DJN.83
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
913 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow will continue into the early overnight from northwest
Indiana into south central Lower Michigan, while a wintry mix
eventually changes to all snow across far northeast Indiana
and northwest Ohio. Hazardous travel conditions will likely
persist into the Thursday morning commute.
- The greatest total snow accumulations are expected from
northwest Indiana into southwest Lower Michigan while the
greater ice accumulations up to one quarter of an inch are
expected east of Interstate 69 and south of the Toll Road.
- There is the potential for another round of wintry
precipitation and hazardous travel late Friday through Sunday
and again Wednesday night/Thu.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025
Previous forecast thinking remains intact this evening, with no
major changes to messaging.
Surface obs/radar data indicate delineation of snow vs wintry
mix precip types extending roughly from just southeast of
Logansport to near Fort Wayne to near Wauseon Ohio. The
strongest axis of isentropic upglide will be exiting east to the
eastern Great Lakes over the next few hours, but this forcing is
being replaced by a fairly strong low-mid level frontogenesis
axis from south central Lower Michigan into west central
Indiana. Cross sections from near term guidance progs suggest
reduced instability atop this frontogenesis forcing, although
some indications of weak convective instability as opposed to
slantwise instability which would be more conducive for longer
sustained snowbands. From reports received so far, snow to
liquid ratios have been on low side in the 10-12:1 ballpark. A
special evening sounding from Valparaiso Univ depicts a very
deep layer up to 10k feet supportive of supercooled water
droplets that would be conducive for riming and lower ratios.
The DGZ from this sounding is also based very high (~ 4km).
These above factors still support snow to liquid ratios on the
low side, although may be higher for the shorter spurts of more
convectively driven cellular/small band features where vertical
motions are maximized. Based on some reports trickling in this
evening, it appears 2 to 4 inches of snow has fallen from far NW
Indiana into SW Lower Michigan, with a potential of an inch or
two additional before mid level dry slot becomes more dominant.
Meanwhile to the east, a wintry mix will continue and precip
rates associated with sleet/freezing rain will be augmented by
the eastward progressing 850-700 mb fgen axis. Best ice
accumulation potential appears to be in place through 06 or 07Z.
Have received reports of around one tenth of an inch of ice
accumulation across portions of NW Ohio through 02Z, with
another tenth to locally two tenths of an inch possible. This
may take total ice accretion near warning criteria across
portions of NW Ohio, but a few factors still support lower ice
to liquid ratios including relatively weak winds during time of
ice accumulation and sfc wet bulbs a little higher than would be
optimal for more efficient accretion. With really no change in
messaging at this point with general expectation of up to 0.25
inch ice accumulation, will stay the course for now with Winter
Weather advisories.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025
A PV hook approaches the area from the west during the afternoon
hours. Td depressions lower and reach 3 to 5 degrees this afternoon
and evening allowing precipitation to get underway. Some question on
how early this happens though with the RAP showing saturation around
18z where as the the NAM is closer to 21z. The later saturation
occurs, the higher the ceiling for road temperatures to get. This
plays a roll in when rain can begin accreting to roadways as
freezing rain. Indications are freezing rain begins between 20z and
3z this evening from northwest to southeast. Snow begins in the
northwest as early as early this afternoon and then begins pushing
southeastward. There still exists some uncertainty on where the
highest icing totals reside with one camp being from southern Henry
county southwestward to southeast Grant county and another camp
residing north of that. These totals reach around or just above 0.25
inch accretion of ice, but these will depend on that afternoon
window of how quickly accretion can get started. Models
indicate the better f-gen banding and perhaps some CSI towards
the 21z to 3z time where the stronger precipitation would
arrive. The HREF has a quick 21z to 00z timeframe when the
strongest snow pushes through just southwest of Lake MI. Gusty
winds around midday today are expected to relax some from around
25 mph once precipitation starts and any mixing layer that
might form collapses and then could reinvigorate early Thursday.
Given some of these uncertainties, had flirted with the idea of
an ice storm warning in the US-24 corridor, especially in NW
OH, but just don`t have enough confidence on where the thin
swath resides and if it even gets to 0.25 inch. Additionally,
could see some power outages due to the weight of the ice
accretion, especially if it does reach the 0.25 inch total, but
think the relaxing winds will help to limit that this afternoon.
Will also continue the winter weather advisories for areas
where snow is the main ptype, generally north of US-6, where 3
to 6 inches of snow is likely. Still think this is enough to
affect the evening commute in those northern areas where precip
starts early enough. Lake effect snow begins moving down the
tear drop of the lake to affect areas just adjacent during the
wee hours of the morning on Thursday. Residence time isn`t that
long and the low levels appear dry enough to limit
precipitation. Away from lake effect snow, could also see some
freezing drizzle work in as the DGZ begins to dry out after 03z
or so. This probably ends up with some light snow and moreso
just lake effect clouds. We will be colder on Thursday with
highs in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees and this may allow the
ice accretion to linger unless roads are treated.
Winds turn out of the south on Friday with surface high pressure now
to our east and this should shut off cloud cover and allow for
sunshine. Highs are not too far from where they end up on Thursday,
once again, in the mid 20s to low 30s. The area of warm advection at
the onset Friday night may be enough to set off snow if it gets
going early enough, warm air appears unencumbered enough to
potentially cause some mixing of sleet and freezing rain in the US-
30 corridor with a better chance of rain south of that. The
transition to the low pressure system being the main forcing takes
over Saturday night and a transition to lake effect snow happens on
Saturday. Given the path of the low pressure system to our south,
any initial rain is expected to change to snow, especially overnight
into Sunday with the deformation zone overhead and cool air wrapping
in. It may also occur earlier than that as the GFS shows a more
isothermal layer that may keep it snow. One issue that we`ve been
having all winter long has been getting systems to phase in time to
produce a good amount of snow in the area as opposed to just being
piecemeal and reducing output as a result. That may be an issue for
this storm too. So far, it looks like 2 to 5 inches of snow north of
US-30 Friday night into Saturday.
Yet another wave ejects off the Rockies for Monday night/Tuesday.
This one appears to dissipate before it arrives. It really lacks any
warm advection area. Still another wave may get its act together
between Tuesday night and Wednesday, but how wound up and phased it
gets is still question for that time period. Expect below normal
temperatures for the next work week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025
Strong isentropic upglide continues across northern Indiana
this evening which has supported widespread wintry mix across
the region. Over the next few hours, low/mid level frontal
forcing will strengthen which could provide a period of
prevailing snow at KFWA through 02Z or 03Z. Precip types should
remain predominately snow at KSBN. After 03Z, some effects from
upstream mid/upper level dry slot could cause precip at KFWA to
switch back to mainly freezing rain before low level cold
advection becomes strong enough to support ice nucleation and a
transition back to snow before precip ends overnight. Conditions
should waver between IFR/LIFR this evening into the early
overnight following the heavier bursts of snow/mixed
precipitation. By late tonight some lake enhancement of snow is
possible with another burst of snow showers expected at KSBN
some time in the 10-15Z window. Low levels above the inversion
should dry out later Thursday morning resulting in diminishment
to lake effect. In addition, some fog will be possible across NE
Indiana through around 06Z, but should diminish during the
overnight hours as low level cold advection becomes more
established.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Thursday for
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ078>081-
177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Marsili
DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Marsili
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
714 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 712 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
- Very cold day ahead tomorrow with high and low temperatures being
5-15 degrees below normal.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
Have cancelled the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory early.
Winds have decreased significantly early this evening and
therefore the threat has ended.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 227 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
Current upper-level water vapor imagery and latest RAP analysis
depicts a longwave trough extending across the northern half of the
US/far southern Canada to northwestern Mexico. Coinciding with this
trough, a Gulf low pressure system will move across portions of the
Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley today, supplying a
cold front arriving in the region early this evening. High winds
across the Guadalupe are anticipated to decrease after 03Z (8 PM
MST/9 PM CST) tonight. Low temperatures are expected to drop into
the upper teens to mid 20s across the Permian Basin and southeast
New Mexico, along with upper 20s to upper 30s elsewhere. Patchy
drizzle may also form over the Guadalupes to the Davis Mountains
tomorrow morning as models have resolved sufficient low-level
(850mb) moisture profiles across these areas.
Another cloudy day is in store tomorrow especially over west Texas
with colder temperatures and breezy northeasterly to easterly winds.
High pressure begins to build in as the front stalls over the Sierra
Madre Mountains. Cold air advection behind the front will hold high
temperatures generally ranging from the lower 40s to mid 50s
regionwide. Areas along the Presidio to Rio Grande valleys reach the
mid to upper 60s. Temperatures heading into Thursday night/Friday
morning are anticipated to be a bit warmer than the previous
morning. Lows ranging from the upper 20s to upper 30s areawide which
is near to slightly below normal for this time of year.
Lamberson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
The next mid-level trough deepening over the Four Corners region
and southern Rockies Friday and Friday night will translate
eastward across the southern Plains on Saturday. An associated
surface low pressure system will deepen over the vicinity of
southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas Friday afternoon,
with the lee surface trough axis extending southward across
eastern New Mexico and into west and southwest Texas. The
resultant pressure gradient will bring breezy southerly to
southwesterly winds to much of our forecast area on Friday, with
winds potentially approaching high wind warning thresholds in the
Guadalupe Mountains by Friday afternoon. High temperatures are
forecast to trend much warmer in the 60s and 70s across most of
our region, except for readings in the lower to mid 80s along the
Rio Grande. The mid-level trough axis will move across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico on Saturday, while the surface low
pressure system quickly lifts eastward toward the mid-
Mississippi Valley region by Saturday afternoon. Westerly winds
will increase across most of our forecast area during the day
Saturday, with a continued potential for winds near warning
thresholds in the Guadalupe Mountains. Highs on Saturday should be
mild with the westerly winds in place, and highs should range in
the 60s and 70s over much of the area, except 50s in the mountains
and readings in the lower to mid 80s along the Rio Grande. A cold
front is forecast to move into our area Saturday night, bringing
colder morning lows in the 20s over the Permian Basin, and 30s and
40s over the rest of the forecast area. The boundary should be
stalled along the mountains on Sunday, with highs only reaching
into the upper 40s to upper 50s east of the boundary, and in the
60s to near 70 west of the boundary.
Dry zonal to northwesterly flow aloft looks to prevail Monday and
Tuesday, with surface troughing leading to warmer temperatures
over our region. Yet another cold front should push through our
forecast area by Tuesday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 449 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
VFR conditions with gusty westerly winds continue for western
terminals. Eastern terminals maintain an easterly wind. Wind
speeds quickly decrease after sunset as a cold front slides back
southwest through the area. Easterly winds overspread all
terminals with largely VFR conditions. An MVFR to IFR ceiling
cloud deck is maintained just to the northeast of MAF and HOB
currently. There is medium confidence that these lower MVFR to
IFR ceilings move into these terminals within the next few hours.
These lower ceilings last through sunrise before clearing by mid-
morning. Other terminals may be impacted as well, but confidence
is low for these remaining sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 23 42 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 31 49 31 73 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 38 50 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 33 50 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 35 49 36 65 / 0 10 0 0
Hobbs 22 46 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 39 59 31 72 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 24 45 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 25 45 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 29 50 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...91
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
405 PM PST Wed Feb 12 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM PST Wed Feb 12 2025
Potentially major impacts from a strong storm system incoming
tonight and lasting into Thursday. Local flooding and widespread
damaging winds are the main threats through Thursday morning.
Slight chance for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Drier
conditions on Friday into the weekend. Potential showers for the
North Bay on Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM PST Wed Feb 12 2025
KEY POINTS
* Flood Watch in effect 10 PM Wed to 10 PM Sat (area-wide)
* High Wind Warning (coastal) and Wind Advisory (inland) in
effect from 10 PM Wed to 10 AM Fri (coastal)
* Widespread shallow landslides possible Thursday morning
* Downed trees and power outages likely
* Highest impact areas include Santa Cruz Mtns and Big Sur Coast
* High Surf Warning in effect 3 PM Thu to 3 AM Sat
METEOROLOGY:
Major winter storm still on track to impact the region beginning
tonight. Beautiful visible satellite representation of the storm
currently centered about 1,000 miles to our northwest. One can
clearly make out features such as the nearly stationary warm front
draped along the CA coast, as well as the intense surface cold
front wrapping into the storm from the south and west. The storm
will continue translating southeastward guided by an intense 170
kt jet streak aloft. Latest advanced scatterometer pass over the
storm from about 1 PM today shows estimated sustained surface
winds of 40-45 kts, which is in line with latest forecast wind
intensities. Current surface pressure has been analyzed at 986 mb
as of 1 PM this afternoon. Expecting these winds to hold or
slightly increase their intensity as the storm nears the CA coast
and deepens to around 981 mb by late tonight. As the storm nears
the coast tonight, rainfall will likely start out as a gradual
warm frontal overrunning in which rain will be widespread, but
only light to moderate in intensity, lacking the robust cold
frontal processes and enhanced upslope moisture transport.
Progressing further after midnight tonight, the warm front moves
ashore and the cold front enters the North Bay, moving quickly
down the coast through the early morning hours. This will be the
period in which the heaviest rainfall rates will occur...on the
order of 1.0 to 1.5 in/hr, especially in the Santa Cruz Mtns and
Big Sur coast. In addition to the intense rainfall rates, damaging
winds will be a factor through the morning hours as well. Once
the mid-level trough axis comes ashore around midnight, the strong
mid-to-upper level flow begins to impinge on the CA coast. 850 mb
flow out of the southwest at 50 to 60 kts spreads across the
region from north to south from about midnight in the North Bay to
11 AM along the Big Sur coast. This will likely result in surface
wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph across the area, with coastal areas
and higher elevations seeing gusts in the 60 to 70 mph range.
Isolated areas along the coast and coastal mountain ridgetops may
end up seeing gusts closer to 80 mph as the more intense winds mix
down with the passage of the cold front. Behind the cold front,
the environment remains supportive for thunderstorms well into the
afternoon. Immediately after the cold frontal passage, any
thunderstorms that initiate will likely be over powered by robust
speed shear and limited instability. There will also be a bit of
dry air mixing into the storm top level per RAP forecast soundings
along the coast, so there is some limited downburst potential
with a few storms that are able to stay intact along the coast.
Beyond the morning hours, instability increases a bit as the
surface warms slightly, and speed shear decreases a bit as well
as the upper level jet start to move out of the region. This will
likely provide a window of time where storm ingredients are better
suited to lead to more prolonged updrafts and better potential
for rotation should any storm deviate to the right of the mean
storm motion. For more details on the severe threat, see
spc.noaa.gov, which places us in a general risk for thunderstorms
for Thursday.
IMPACTS:
General flooding impacts will begin in the North Bay as early as
tonight and spread across the rest of the region shortly after
midnight. It may appear as a slow start for those areas that start
to see rainfall first, as it will mostly be associated with a
warm/stationary front, thus not terribly heavy. However, after
midnight, rainfall rates are expected to increase substantially
with the passage of the main cold front. This will exacerbate
flooding concerns, especially in the Santa Cruz Mtns and Big Sur
coast. By the time the cold front moves through, soils will be
nearly saturated in the Santa Cruz Mtns, so we do expect to see
issues with quick runoff and shallow landsliding. Not only will
this alone be an issue, but winds are expected to gust up to 60
mph (as high as 80 mph along the ridge of the SC Mtns). Combining
the high winds with saturated soils is a recipe for downed trees
and power lines, leading to potential structure damage and power
outages. The Flood Watch has been expanded to cover the entire
region, and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind
Warning for coastal areas, and a Wind Advisory for inland areas.
We will likely see notable rises on many major rivers, but the
Russian River at Guerneville and the San Lorenzo River have the
highest chances of going into flood stage. The San Lorenzo perhaps
being one of the more worrisome ones given how flashy the terrain
is known to be in that region. Other coastal areas outside of the
Santa Cruz Mtns may not see the same degree of shallow landsliding,
but nonetheless will still have impacts due to downed trees and
powerlines, especially areas near the Marin headlands, Big
Sur/Carmel coast, and Monterey Peninsula. The commute Thursday
morning will undoubtedly be nasty and downright dangerous in some
cases (thinking Hwy 17 in particular). When all is said and done,
the North Bay will likely end up with 2 to 4 inches, and the Bay
Area will see a range of 1.5 to 3 inches depending on if you`re in
the South Bay rain shadow or not. The Santa Cruz Mtns and Big Sur
coast will be the winners with 4 to 7 inches, locally up to 8-10.
Despite some locations seeing some of the lower end of rainfall
amounts, wind is still expected to pose a threat to life and
property through Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM PST Wed Feb 12 2025
Shower activity will be coming to an end Friday morning with dry
conditions into Saturday. Medium range ensemble guidance is showing
the potential for another much weaker storm system on Sunday that
would brush the North Bay, but the upcoming storm system this
Thursday morning is the only majorly impactful period that we see in
the 7 day forecast period. There will likely be a lull in storm
activity along the West Coast through next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 404 PM PST Wed Feb 12 2025
A mixed bag of MVFR and VFR conditions as the storm system continues
to move into our area. Some vicinity showers will occur until
tonight where the heavier bands of rain will move over the terminals
creating reduced visibility and low ceilings. CIGs and VIS may drop
to IFR if rain intensifies overnight. There is a chance for low
level wind shear/upper air turbulence across most terminals
overnight into early Thursday morning. Rain will start to diminish
towards Thursday morning but expect MVFR to prevail through the TAF
period for all terminals. Winds will start to build into strong
gusty southerly winds overnight and prevail through the rest of the
TAF period.
Vicinity of SFO...MVFR with light westerly winds. These winds will
turn to southerly direction shortly after 00Z and will build to
strong and gusty winds with a chance for AWW speeds near 10-11Z.
LLWS/turbulence is possible as well with speeds up to 50-55 knots
at 2000 feet near 10-11Z. High confidence that winds will overall
remain strong and gusty through the remainder of the TAF period.
As the rain becomes heavier, CIGs/VIS may drop to IFR conditions
overnight.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR/MVFR conditions. Higher confidence that
MVFR conditions will prevail after 06Z through the remainder of the
TAF period. Southerly winds will build to strong and gusty with a
chance of LLWS between 12-16Z.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 330 PM PST Wed Feb 12 2025
Winds are increasing widespread gale conditions with isolated
storm force gusts possible. Moderate period westerly swell will
build through Friday morning with very rough to high seas
expected. Light rain showers will continue through the day ahead
of moderate to heavy rainfall that is expected Wednesday night
through Friday morning with a slight chance for thunderstorms
Thursday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1101 PM PST Tue Feb 11 2025
A High Surf Warning is in effect from 3 PM Thursday through 3 AM
Saturday for all Pacific Coast beaches. Westerly swell with a period
up to 15 seconds will build through Friday. As a result, west-facing
beaches will see dangerously large breaking waves of 20 to 30 feet
and up to 45 feet peak waves, non-west facing beaches will see
dangerously large breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet and up to 30 feet
peak waves. Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-
threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other
waterside infrastructure, keep pets on a leash and away from the
water, and never turn your back on the ocean!
Sarment
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch from 10 PM PST this evening through Saturday evening
for CAZ006-502>506-508>510-512>518-528>530.
High Wind Warning from 3 AM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday for
CAZ006-502-503-505-509-512-529-530.
High Surf Warning from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PST Saturday for
CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
Wind Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 10 AM PST Friday for CAZ504-
506-508-510-513>518-528.
PZ...Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM PST Friday for Mry
Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.
Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10
nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
Blancas 0-10 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt
to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes
to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...Murdock
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Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
912 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
- Cold temperatures and wind chill values are expected to meet
cold weather advisory criteria in parts of NE OK and far NW AR
late tonight into Thursday morning.
- Another storm system will bring additional precipitation Friday
night into Saturday, most of which should be liquid. Some wrap-
around snow could graze the KS and MO border areas late
Saturday, with low chances for minor impacts.
- The active pattern continues as yet another storm system during
the early to middle part of next week could bring more
impactful wintry weather.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
Main change to this afternoon`s forecast package was adding
Washington (OK), Nowata, Craig, and Ottawa counties to the Cold
Weather Advisory tonight. Temperatures are falling fast along I-44
and west of Highway 75 in OK as cloud cover tries to clear out.
Latest surface observations show temperatures in this region are
already in the teens or lower 20s. Cloud cover is not expected to
completely go away, but may thin out for some, especially
western/northwestern portions of the forecast area. This is where
ambient air temperatures may fall to single digits early Thursday
morning, particularly across Osage, Pawnee, Washington and Nowata
counties. Elsewhere, temperatures will still be quite cold and
will fall into the teens and lower 20s.
Winds are forecast to continue to blow out of the
north/northwest around 10-15 mph through the overnight hours as
high pressure drifts south into the Central Plains by early
tomorrow morning. These wind speeds will cause some bitterly cold
wind chill (apparent) temperatures. Minimum wind chill values will
vary north to south across the forecast area, ranging from -5F
near the OK/KS border to around +10F in far southeast OK and the
Arkansas River Valley. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect
from midnight tonight until 9 AM tomorrow morning for portions of
northeast OK as well as Benton County, AR.
Mejia
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thru Thursday morning)
Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
A band of light snow or flurries continues east across NE OK and
may move into NW AR before eventually dissipating this afternoon.
This is occurring along an advancing H85 cold front. Little to no
additional accumulation is expected, and the advisory was allowed
to expire as impactful winter weather is no longer expected.
Colder air continues to filter into the area as high pressure to
the northwest of the region gradually builds in this direction.
Overnight into Thursday morning, forecast wind chills are expected
to meet cold weather advisory criteria over portions of NE OK.
Lacy
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
After a cold day on Thursday, south winds and warmer weather will
return for Friday into Saturday ahead of the next storm system and
associated cold front. Rain and thunder chances will increase
Friday night into Saturday. Some wrap-around snow could graze the
KS and MO border areas late Saturday, with low chances for minor
impacts. Another push of cold air will follow in the wake of this
system over much of the nation east of the Rockies as a piece of
the polar vortex drops down as far south as the Great Lakes and
Northeast. After another cold day Sunday, temps rebound Monday
ahead of yet another storm system Tuesday and Wednesday. This
system could bring another round of impactful wintry weather. The
active February weather pattern will continue.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025
Low clouds starting to clear across northeast Oklahoma as drier air/
surface high pressure continues to build into the region. IFR ceilings,
with the potential for a period of LIFR conditions, are forecast
to persist overnight at NW AR TAF sites before clearing by mid to
late morning Thursday. This is more in line with the more pessimistic
HRRR solution compared to the latest MOS guidance. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions expected with light east winds into Thursday afternoon
as high pressure quickly shifts east.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 12 32 21 48 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 21 39 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 17 36 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 8 30 18 47 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 14 33 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 14 31 22 47 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 15 34 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 11 29 18 46 / 0 0 0 0
F10 15 34 23 49 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 22 41 30 50 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
for OKZ054>064-066-067-070.
AR...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
for ARZ001.
&&
$$
UPDATE...67
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12