Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/08/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1009 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers continue across northern Onondaga
and Oneida county this tonight.The lake effect snow will taper
off and end by the mid to late morning hours on Saturday. Another
low pressure system moves in Saturday evening into Sunday
morning bringing widespread snowfall to Central NY and a wintry
mix to Northeast PA. Lake effect snow showers redevelop heading
into Sunday night with seasonably cold temperatures expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
955 PM Update...
Cancelled the winter weather advisory for lake effect snow in
southern Oneida county. Large low level dew point depressions
and drier air is preventing the lake effect snow from reaching
that far inland into the Mohawk Valley region. Only expecting
another dusting to 1 inch overnight for the Rome/Utica area.
Will let the Lake Effect snow Warning continue for now, but the
same dry air mass is not allowing for much in the way of heavy
snow across northern Oneida county. Latest model guidance shows
some chance for a minor resurgence of the steadier lake effect
snow overnight across the NW corner of the county; where up to 4
inches of additional snow may fall.
00z HRRR and NAM model data is coming in for the Saturday
evening/night system. The HRRR is showing a mid level dry slot
getting up into the Twin Tiers, which would taper off the steady
snow and bring a period of freezing drizzle or light sleet
pellets. Meanwhile the 00z 3km NAM keeps this mix a bit further
south, confined to NE PA. There may still be an initial "thump"
of heavy snow in NE PA, perhaps including the Wyoming Valley
before that mid level dry slot and/or a small above freezing
layer at 750-800mb moves in. Further north, across the northern
Susquehanna region, northern Catskills and I-90 Corridor there
will be a good FGEN forced band of snow; with much higher snow
to liquid ratios on the order of 15-18:1 here. This may result
in some higher snow totals in this area, despite modest QPF
amounts in the 0.40 to 0.60 inch range.
720 PM Update...
Lake effect snow continues to steadily stream off of Lake
Ontario across far northern Onondaga county, and north-central
Oneida county. The intensity has waned over the past few hours,
but webcams in NW Oneida still show generally light ongoing
snowfall. Will keep the Lake Effect Snow Warning and advisory
going for now; but only expecting another 2-5 inches in northern
Oneida and 1 to 2 inches additional for southern Oneida through
Saturday morning. The rest of the forecast remains on track with
just minor edits based on the latest CAMs and NBM. Snow amounts
remain very similar for the Saturday night into early Sunday
morning period. No other significant changes at this time.
130 PM Update...
Lake effect snow bands off Lake Ontario remains the main weather
feature for this forecast period.
Much of the areas south of the Mohawk Valley has clear to
partly cloudy skies as high cirrus will stream over the area
through the afternoon and tonight. Gusty winds this morning have
weakened to 20-30kts across the area, and should diminish this
evening as a surface high works its way in from the west. Temps
tonight will be cold, falling into the low to mid teens thanks
to the high bringing light winds and locking in the colder
airmass from the north.
Lake effect snow will impact the Mohawk Valley into Northern
Oneida county this afternoon into tomorrow morning. Satellite
and radar returns show a strong upstream connection to the
northern Great Lakes starting late this morning. This extra
moisture riding over a decent fetch off Lake Ontario has allowed
moderate snow showers to develop and stream over Oneida and
northern Onondaga counties. This wide, cellular band will remain
over this area into the evening hours. It is expected to slowly
lift north as a surface high builds into the area this evening
from Ohio and moves across the NY/PA border. This will cause the
wind field to be more WSW vs the current WNW flow. Currently,
the Lake Effect Snow Warning for northern Oneida county and the
Winter Weather Advisory for southern Oneida county look on track
with timing and amounts. 6-9 inches of snow should fall across
central and western Northern Oneida county, while 1-5 inches is
expected across southern Oneida county. Here, the low end
numbers will be in the southern portion of the area while the
higher numbers will be to the north where the snow showers are
expected to reside the longest.
The snow should dissipate by mid morning as the center of the
high moves east of CNY, bringing southerly flow and cutting off
the wind field`s access to the lake. Temperatures will rise
into the mid 20s to low 30s Saturday afternoon as the southerly
flow should be able to advect in a slightly warmer airmass.
A brief quiet period will be present in the afternoon before
the next storm system moves into the region Saturday afternoon.
Light snow should move from west to east, entering our western
counties late in the afternoon. Up to 0.5 inches should fall
during this period before the bulk of the snow moves in later in
the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
345 PM update...
A quick moving system will bring a burst of snow to the region
Saturday night into Sunday morning. This low amplitude pattern along
with a surface low over the Ohio Valley and an upper level short
wave over the Great Lakes will track east into the region. Both
features will merge, placing the area in the left exit region of an
upper level jet streak. This along with some fgen will help to
enhance lift especially during the 0Z to 6Z period. Although it is
important to note that the best fgen will be east of our region.
Another important factor will be how quickly dry air surges into the
region from 6Z to 12Z, this could impact how much QPF we receive.
Otherwise models mostly agree on a somewhat colder solution
with only the GFS pushing warmer air into the Wyoming valley.
Looking at model soundings, most of the area should remain below
freezing through the upper levels with mostly snow expected.
Although freezing rain and sleet will be possible over northeast
PA as the warm nose nudges in. Otherwise models begin to unzip
with dry air pushing in Sunday morning. A brief period of
freezing drizzle will linger into the early portion of Sunday
morning as conditions dry out over the DGZ, but remain saturated
through the lower levels. With differences in 850 mb
temperatures across the region, there will be a fairly decent
range in terms of snow ratios. There is still quite a bit of
variation in QPF, the NAM being the drier solution and the GFS
trending higher,overall blended the NBM with WPC.
In terms of headlines, went with advisories across the board as
confidence wasn`t high enough for a Winter Storm Warning. Snow
totals are borderline over central NY with amounts ranging 4 to 7
inches at most. All of northeast PA was also included in an advisory
with snow amounts ranging 2 to 5 inches along with ice accumulations
up to a tenth of an inch.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Northwest flow behind a departing system will keep clouds
around and produce some scattered lake effect snow showers.
Model soundings Sunday morning do show a fair amount of dry air
intrusion for a time which introduces some mention of freezing
drizzle. Any snowfall accumulation looks to be under an inch
with highs generally around 30. Winds become more westerly
Sunday night shifting the main axis of lake effect closer to
the NY Thruway with additional light accumulations of snow.
Temperatures look to be several degrees cooler Monday with the
renewed shot of arctic air. High pressure over the region may
give us a window with light winds and slightly lower cloud
cover. This should be our coldest night with single digits for
lows.
A very active and wintry pattern continues given the base state
of arctic cold shots (-EPO,WPO) and blocking (-AO,NAO)
countered by a -PNA which promotes a ridge over the southeast.
As a result, several low pressure systems look to track from the
Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states
from Tuesday till the end of next week. For the most part
several rounds of snow are expected. However, there is potential
for the system late Wednesday into Thursday to track far enough
north for a brief interval of rain or freezing rain. It is too
early to pinpoint snow accumulations given quite a bit of
ensemble variability is present. The strongest of the low
pressure systems departs by Friday with a return to northwest
flow and the potential for some light lake effect snowfall.
Generally teens for lows and 20`s/30`s for highs.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect snow will continue over RME through most of the
overnight hours. While conditions have improved there,
restrictions will likely bounce between IFR and VFR. By around
10z, the snow will come to an end but lake clouds will keep
ceilings low until after 18z Saturday. All other terminals are
VFR and will be for the majority of this TAF period. Snow will
move into the region late in the day on Saturday and that could
bring some restrictions to ELM and AVP, but there remains
uncertainty on the timing.
All terminals are no longer reporting gusts but some gusts will
remain possible over the next few hours. Otherwise, winds
become light and variable overnight and then settle out of the
southeast at around 5 to 10 kts Saturday afternoon.
Outlook...
Saturday evening and night...Restrictions likely (IFR or lower)
with steady snow and perhaps some wintry mix moving through the
area.
Sunday...Snow tapers off to scattered lake effect snow showers
and flurries; restrictions possible (especially NY terminals)
Monday...A few lake effect snow showers or flurries possible;
restrictions possible for CNY terminals. Mainly VFR at AVP.
Tuesday through Wednesday...Snow and associated restrictions
beginning late Tuesday.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ009.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
for NYZ046-057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...JTC/MJM
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BTL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
938 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow will continue along and south of Interstate 94 through
this evening, tapering off from west to east late tonight
into early Saturday morning.
- Dry conditions with below normal temperatures are expected
for the rest of the weekend.
- Arctic air returns next week, with dangerously cold wind
chills as low as 35 to 45 below zero at times.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
Snow continues to fall across the southern half of the state late
this evening. Snowfall rates implied from radar and surface
visibility have significantly decreased west of the river, and to a
lesser extent east of the river. SPC mesoanalysis still shows strong
700 mb frontogenesis over south central and southeast North Dakota,
but this should begin to wane over the next few hours. Lighter snow
is likely to continue until a deamplification of mid-level winds and
vorticity later tonight.
Confidence is increasing that extensive cloud cover will persist
through the night across most of the region. A more substantial
boost to overnight low temperatures was made with this update, with
single digits below zero now forecast across the north rather than
teens below.
UPDATE
Issued at 711 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
Mesoscale banding over south central North Dakota has become
less intense and more broad over the past hour or so, and has
now shifted out of southwest North Dakota. The transition of the
banding characteristics has likely resulted in a decrease of
snowfall rates for some areas (such as Bismarck/Mandan), but an
increase for others. RAP guidance continues to advertise several
more hours of mid level frontogenesis along and south of I-94
from Bismarck to Jamestown, with peak intensity around 8-9 PM
CST. No changes to the warning or advisory are needed at this
time.
In other forecast news, satellite imagery shows a large stratus
deck extending into southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and trends
would suggest a high probability that these clouds will mostly
remain over northern parts of the state through the night. If
this does happen, our low temperature forecast will be far too
cold. Even if there is clearing, we are skeptical of the
inherited forecast of lower to mid teens below given the nearest
teens below dewpoints are up in central Manitoba. For now, just
a slight bump in overnight temperatures was made across the
north until confidence in the clouds persisting is higher.
Because of this trend, there is also now less concern for wind
chills falling below advisory criteria levels of 30 below later
tonight.
UPDATE
Issued at 441 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
Radar shows a narrow band of heavy snow persisting from around
Baker, MT to Bismarck and Steele. Upstream trends suggest little
to no change in the positioning or strength of the banding over
the next few hours, and 1 to 2 inch per hour rates are being
observed under the band at our office. The Winter Storm Warning
has been expanded north into Stark, Morton, Burleigh, and Kidder
Counties. Oliver County is also now under a Winter Weather
Advisory. The 4 counties that were added to the warning are now
expected to have a narrow corridor of 5 to 7 inches of total
snow accumulation, focused over southern parts of each of those
counties.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
Inverted surface trough combined with a frontal boundary and
upper level wave will continue snow to the southern half of
North Dakota today through much of tonight, and into Saturday
morning for some eastern areas. Low to mid level frontogenesis
appears to be peaking now through this evening, creating a
decent band of snow across the southern tier of counties in ND.
These counties have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning as
total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are now expected.
Meanwhile along the Interstate 94 corridor, snow looks to have
shifted far enough north for snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches
in these areas. Thus a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued
for counties along Interstate 94 for today into Saturday. If the
band further shifts more north then near 6 inches of snow are
possible in these areas. For now the warning remains in the
highest confidence areas. Winds look to be limited with this
system, although there is a brief window of blowing snow tonight
in central portions. Areas not in winter highlights could see at
least a slight chance of snow, although north of Highway 2
appears to be the cutoff for this slight chance. These northern
areas will start to feel the effects of a surface high and cold
northerly flow. Low temperatures in the north tonight will be in
the teens below zero, with single digits below zero south. Wind
chills along the Canadian Border tonight could be near Cold
Weather Advisory criteria especially Saturday morning. Given the
brevity of these colder wind chills will hold off on any cold
weather products at this time. Surface high moves in on Saturday
ending snow from west to east in the morning and bringing
clearing skies. Perhaps some breezy winds linger in eastern
portions through Saturday, although they look to be just low
enough to limit blowing snow impacts. Highs on Saturday will
generally be in the range of 5 to 15 degrees above zero. Surface
high is replaced by mainly dry northwest flow Saturday nigh
through Sunday. Some breezy winds may again be found on Sunday,
although look to be below advisory criteria. Cold temperatures
will continue to filter into the region with lows Saturday night
in the single digits below zero, and highs on Sunday again in
the 5 to 15 degree range. Generally light winds Saturday night
and Sunday morning should limit wind chill impacts.
Very cold temperatures then return Sunday night through much of
next week. Arctic front looks to push through Sunday night
through Monday. There could be some light snow with the passage
of this front, although NBM pops are mainly dry at this time.
The bigger concern will be the dangerously cold temperatures and
wind chills. These wind chills look to be Cold Weather Advisory
levels Sunday night through Monday (colder than 30 below).
Surface high behind the arctic front reinforces the cold air
Monday night through Tuesday. At this time this looks to be the
coldest day of the week, with air temperatures in the 20s below
zero and wind chills in the 40s below zero. Tuesday night could
see continued dangerous cold that lingers into Wednesday
morning. The rest of next week continues to look very cold with
the arctic airmass lingering across the state. Low temperatures
near 20 below zero could linger in the north with teens below
zero lingering in the south. High temperatures each day look to
remain in the single digits below zero north to the single
digits above zero south. Surface high should keep mainly dry
conditions through mid week, although moisture passing in
northwest flow aloft could bring periods of clouds at times.
Later in the week NBM returns chances for snow as warm air
advection aloft could return. This will be dependent on a
Pacific trough forming off the west coast which most clusters
have. This may not move far enough inland to bring significant
warming. This shows up in the NBM temperature trends and
spreads as only a slight warmup is being forecast by next
weekend. This is also being shown in the CPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14
day outlooks.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 937 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
Snow will continue to cause MVFR/IFR visibility along with MVFR
ceilings across southern North Dakota late this evening, with
conditions improving from west to east late tonight into early
Saturday morning. VFR conditions are otherwise likely to
prevail, but there is a small chance for low ceilings developing
across parts of western and central North Dakota during the day
Saturday. Winds will primarily be northeast to northwest around
5 to 10 kts.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for NDZ020-037.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Saturday for NDZ031-032.
Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Saturday for
NDZ033-040>045.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Saturday for NDZ034>036-
046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Hollan
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
559 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense fog likely (greater than 60% chance) tonight for much of
southwest Kansas, and a Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect
for all but the far western counties tonight through early
Saturday morning.
- Two storm system early next week will yield accumulating snow
across much of Kansas.
- The second of the two systems Tuesday Night into Wednesday
looks to be the more impactful system with more widespread 2"+
snow potential and very cold temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
There are several forecast challenges over the coming days and into
next week, including dense fog tonight and snow/cold early to mid
next week. This afternoon`s RAP analysis and water vapor imagery
revealed a largely zonal pattern across much of the CONUS. There was
an upper level jet streak moving across the Great Basin region east-
northeast toward the Northern Plains. The shortwave trough tied to
this jet streak was pushing east across Montana, which was where the
most unsettled weather was occurring re accumulating snow. The
surface wind field across our southwest Kansas region was slowly
responding to the increasing pressure falls with a southeasterly
wind becoming more uniform across Kansas into northern Oklahoma.
This is important because higher dewpoints were found just to our
south across northern Oklahoma which will slowly advect
northwestward this evening. The increased dewpoints will eventually
manifest as fog, likely dense, beginning late this evening most
likely.
HRRR runs today have been quite aggressive in visibility falling to
1/4 mile by 03Z and after, along with other CAMs. The HREF
probabilities, thus, are quite high for dense fog with a growing
area of 50%+ probabilities 1/4 mile visibility, especially after 06Z
across the eastern half of the DDC CWA. We have issued a Dense Fog
Advisory for the above discussed reasoning from 9 PM CST tonight to
9 AM tomorrow morning. The dense fog is likely to erode fairly
quickly from northwest to southeast when the next cold front moves
south early Saturday morning. North winds behind the front will be
strong, and 5-8 mb/3h MSLP rises in the morning will support wind
gusts 35 to 45 mph at times, particularly in the 14-18Z time frame
Saturday morning. The pressure gradient will slowly relax in the
afternoon with winds tapering off to around 15 mph late in the
afternoon.
Looking ahead to early next week, the next forecast challenge will
be accumulating snow. Successive shortwave trough passages will lead
to enhanced 800-700mb frontogenesis, which will be the primary
forcing mechanism for ascent. The first of these disturbances will
arrive late Monday/Monday Night at the same time an arctic front
meets up with advancing gulf moisture from Texas. The global model
consensus for the best window of light accumulating snow with Wave
#1 is mid evening Monday through roughly mid morning Tuesday. Latest
100-member Grand Ensemble 75th percentile shows around 1/2 to 1"
snowfall focused mainly on the northeastern half of the DDC CWA. The
first wave will move east quickly on Tuesday, but will be followed
quickly be a slightly stronger Wave #2 Tuesday Night into Wednesday.
With Wave #2, 800-700mb frontogenesis will be stronger as the
thermal gradient will be stronger along with better convergence and
deformation in this layer as well. 700mb temperatures will be colder
as well, and this would loosely translate to higher snow-to-liquid
ratios of around 15:1. For Dodge City in particular, latest 25-75th
percentile QPF shows 0.07-0.31" range off the Grand Ensemble, and if
we use a conservative 12:1 SLR, that would result in 0.8-3.7"
snowfall. The upshot is that the 2nd system is likely to be the more
impactful for southwest Kansas with colder temperatures/wind chills
and more accumulating snow.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
Light upslope winds and a moist air mass will lead to fog
formation by 03-06z at KGCK and KDDC. Visibilities will likely
drop to 1/2 mile or less. There is uncertainty in how far east
the fog will develop so that KHYS may keep MVFR visibilities and
CIGS. North winds at 10-12 kts will develop after 06z and then
increase to 15 to 20 kts by 12z in the wake of a cold front. The
stronger winds will break up the fog by 10-11z at KGCK and
KDDC. With daytime heating by 14-15z, expect north winds to
increase to 20-25 kts along with VFR conditions.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Saturday
for KSZ030-031-043>046-062>066-075>081-085>090.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch
The main focus of this forecast discussion will be regarding the
freezing drizzle potential over central and southern Iowa and will
have a more brief discussion regarding the light snow for northern
Iowa. Monitoring a couple areas for moisture analysis this afternoon
for the freezing drizzle potential as there is a wide variety in the
initialized 0-1.5km moisture by the deterministic models. The first
is over the Missouri/eastern Kansas/eastern Oklahoma area where the
most robust models like the HRRR/RAP are over initializing this
moisture and with each RAP run, it backs off only to try to force
more moisture into the solution 3 hrs out. It is also over
initialized in moisture in the second area of focus over northwest
South Dakota. The 12 NAM moisture initialization was better and it
had a good solution regarding the moisture progression into Iowa,
though note the 18z solution is back to the over moist low levels
NAM bias. Then models such as the GFS tend to have too dry of
solutions of low level moisture.
This system is very different from the freezing drizzle event on
Wednesday though both have little to no ice introduction into the
saturated layer. The easterly flow from the high pressure to the
east is very pronounced and will impact the low level saturation and
in fact, several model solutions are keeping cloud bases AOA 1kft,
which is not favorable for drizzle formation. Also, reviewing areas
with condensation pressure deficits within that 0-1.5km layer, these
are sporadic and short duration when they do occur. In addition, the
low level isentropics levels (290K-300K) show near neutral flow and
then down glide (subsidence) after 12z. Due to these potential
negative factors for freezing drizzle production, do not have high
enough confidence in widespread and impactful freezing drizzle. Will
need to continue to monitor through tonight on how much moisture
does return and how that low level saturation process proceeds.
Obviously should the widespread moderate freezing drizzle indeed
develop, then some icing impacts are quite possible. Perhaps this
occurs within the moisture axis along the trough that will move
through in the morning. Again, that should be brief though if it did
occur due to the quick eastward progression.
Light snow is still expected over northern Iowa where deeper
saturation occurs and ice introduction should occur. That said,
there is event a wedge of dry air around 700 mb that could impact
the precipitation over northern Iowa that may limit the amount of
precipitation and perhaps there could be brief periods with a loss
of ice introduction and freezing drizzle potential. Still have 1-2
inches of snow in the forecast. Breezy conditions during the
afternoon around 25 mph could cause some minor blowing snow but with
no current snow cover, it should be limited.
Colder air will follow the system for Sunday and into much of next
week. Next week still looks more active which could result in a few
rounds of light snow especially over central and southern Iowa.
Arctic high pressure will be situated north of Iowa during much of
this period and the dry air originating from this high could have a
big impact on precipitation chances during the period.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
VFR conditions continue through the evening hours but ceilings
will start to drop overnight and continue to lower to at least
MVFR into Saturday morning. Some IFR possible at times during
precipitation which will be in the form of mainly snow in
northern Iowa near KMCW, and a mix of freezing drizzle and snow
towards KFOD and KALO prior to the start of snow or after with
loss of ice introduction. Further south, freezing drizzle
remains the main precipitation type for KDSM and KOTM, though
some uncertainty remains with freezing drizzle timing and
impacts especially so left with Prob30 groups at this time.
Edits may certainly be needed in impacts/timing at all sites as
precipitation develops, especially to visibilities which also
remain more uncertain. Precipitation ends around midday into
early afternoon with overall aviation conditions improving
through the later afternoon into evening hours Saturday.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...05
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
536 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 222 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
Key Messages:
- Patchy dense fog Saturday and Sunday morning
- Unseasonably warm, near record to record high temperatures Saturday
Dew points this morning across our area were few degrees higher than
yesterday, resulting in slightly more widespread and persistent
morning and early afternoon cloud cover. While this has slightly
delayed warming and should keep temperatures below daily records
today, daytime highs will still rise into the 80s regionwide with
clouds currently clearing, reaching the 90s in Dimmit County. Daily
record highs for today and tomorrow are provided in the Climate
section below for reference.
There won`t be any changes to the broader weather pattern in the
short-term, so Saturday will play out very similarly. Dew points
remain elevated, so overnight lows will once again be mild in the
low- to mid-60s. Low stratus and patchy to areas of fog should
redevelop overnight and spread across the region from the southeast,
with higher probabilities for dense fog over the southern Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande Plains.
Dew points Saturday will be a few degrees lower than today, so
expect morning clouds to break a little faster Saturday outside of
some residual cumulus persisting over the Balcones Escarpment. This
will set up more substantial warming to near- or record-breaking
highs in the upper-80s to low-90s for most of our area. Saturday
night, a shallow cold front will approach our region from the north,
though the gentle slope of the front and stable air aloft will
likely preclude any rainfall ahead of the front. The front should
reach the Burnet, Williamson, and Llano counties by sunrise Sunday.
These locations may be able to dip into the 50s, but conditions
elsewhere Saturday night will once again be damp and mild with lows
in the 60s, patchy fog, and low clouds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
Key Messages:
- Cold front to bring colder temperatures across the Hill Country and
Austin metro area on Sunday, still unseasonably warm Sunday south
of the front along the Rio Grande and Coastal Plains
- Rain chances return late Monday night through Wednesday
- High uncertainty in temperature forecast Monday through Wednesday
We are now into the hi-resolution model range for Sunday, which
typically handle the southward extent of shallow cold fronts better
than the global models. With that said, the HREF members have the
front at least into the far northern CWA pre-dawn Sunday, with the
3KM NAM and 18Z HRRR to the I-10 corridor by noon. This creates a
tricky temperature forecast, with a very large high temperature
spread across the CWA, as well as a bust potential. We have trended
the forecast for Sunday significantly colder across the Hill Country
and into the Austin metro area, where confidence is a higher that
the front will be through this region in the morning. There is still
room to go lower across these northern areas, with high temperatures
potentially only in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Across the southwest
CWA, along the Rio Grande and across the Winter Garden region south
of the cold front, high temperatures in the 80s are forecast
The position of the shallow cold front gets even trickier on Monday
across southern areas, and then Tuesday as a disturbance aloft
approaches the area. Low chances (20%) for light rain and isolated
showers are forecast Monday near and just north of the front. Better
chances for showers (30-50%) and isolated thunderstorms are forecast
late Monday night through Tuesday with the aforementioned disturbance.
The upper level pattern becomes more amplified for the latter half of
the week, allowing for a slightly stronger cold front to push through
the area. There is low confidence on when this front moves through
the area, ranging anywhere from Tuesday night to Wednesday night.
This makes the Wednesday temperature and PoP forecast low
confidence.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
Persistence type weather continues with hot afternoons setting up for
another VFR evening, at least early on. Cigs tonight are forecast to
arrive slightly earlier to pick up on the hint that the stratus clouds
were slower to erode today. The continued warming trend is helping
with keeping fog to a minimum, so will keep the VSBY up tonight to
reflect a continuation of last night.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 222 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
02/07 02/08
AUS 88/2017 86/2017
ATT 86/2017 87/2017
SAT 86/2017 88/2017
DRT 93/1937 90/2017
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 67 86 62 64 / 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 87 63 67 / 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 87 65 73 / 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 64 85 55 59 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 64 89 63 81 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 66 86 55 61 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 62 87 62 76 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 64 87 64 72 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 66 86 66 74 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 65 87 65 75 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 65 88 65 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...18
Long-Term...76
Aviation...Tran
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
235 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another night of freezing fog, perhaps dense is forecast
tonight mainly along and east of Highway 83.
- Breezy northerly winds gusting 40 to 50 mph during the morning
hours Saturday before slowly decreasing through the
afternoon.
- 20%-30% chance for light snow showers along/north of the
KS/NE border Saturday night-Sunday morning with little if any
accumulation expected.
- Increasing chances for much colder temperatures and light
snowfall Monday night through Wednesday.
- Dangerously cold wind chills below zero Monday night, Tuesday
night and Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1252 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025
One area of fog and stratus erodes and the next round moves in. The
eroding fog and stratus across eastern Colorado does look to impact
the high temperatures across the western portion of the area so have
lowered high temperatures. Further to the east the next round of
stratus is moving in which is considerably early according to
guidance. This will be the main focus through the evening will be to
see how dewpoint depressions react as the sun sets as the
current expectation is that there will be a struggle for
temperatures to fall to much as we already have the low stratus
in place. There will again be some weak moisture advection with
dew points rising into the mid to upper 20s. There was some
consideration given to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for Gove,
Graham and Sheridan counties this evening but with the concern
about the dew point depression my confidence in a long duration
dense fog event is only around 30% at this time. I do think
there will be periods of dense fog (50%) in the counties that
was considered but again given the concerns about how long and
the coverage should it develop, opted to hold off on headlines
at this time.
A cold front is forecast to move through the area overnight which
will shunt any fog and stratus out of the area. As cold fronts
typically do have the tendency to move through a little quicker
than what guidance suggests was another reason to hold off of
the Advisory. The front is forecast to be a dry front but the
main story with this does appear to be the wind. Very strong
pressure rises ranging from 7 to 11mb over three hours is seen
via the GFS, NAM and RAP so have increased the wind gust
potential with this to around the 40 to 50 mph range. The front
looks to move through around 2-4am MT and is currently situated
across central South Dakota at this time. The windiest
conditions look to occur along and south of a Norton to Cheyenne
Wells line around mid morning and then will decline through the
remainder of the day. During the day Saturday I did add in a
couple areas of flurries as well as there does appear to be some
subtle lift, weak mid level moisture and ice in the clouds. Not
anticipating anything like what occurred earlier in the week
with an unanticipated couple tenths of snow accumulation as
there doesn`t appear to be any surface based CAPE present to
support this and there is drier air at the surface as well which
makes me think that flurries would be the most likely outcome.
High temperatures were also nudged down a few more degrees due
to the better signal for cloud cover and continued cold air
advection into the area.
Saturday night, a slightly better potential for light snow remains
for northern portions of the area. I continue to see a dry layer
near the surface which is keeping me from going higher on pops. Due
to the higher elevation across the northwest portions of the area
this may be enough to overcome some of those concerns so am leaving
those areas in a 25-30% chance and rapidly declining the
further south you go. At this time light accumulation less than
a half inch is currently forecast with minimal if any impacts
currently seen.
Sunday will continue to see southeast flow across the area keeping
cloudy skies in place for the majority of the day before ending west
to east as some drier air associated with some subtle surface
troughing moves in. High temperatures are currently forecast in the
upper 30s to low 40s but if the cloud cover can linger longer than
currently forecast then high temperatures may be to warm as 850mb
temperatures remain around -1C.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025
Focus continues to be on the Arctic air and light snow which
will impact the area Monday night through Thursday morning.
After highs in the 30s Monday afternoon, temperatures will fall
into the single digits behind the Arctic front Monday night.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be the coldest days of the period with
highs in the teens and lows in the single digits above/below
zero. Wind chills will generally be in the 10 to 15 below range
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings, with a low probability
(around 20%) of meeting wind chill criteria (15 below) for an
advisory. The Arctic air will try to move out Thursday and
Friday with temperatures closer to normal, though model spread
remains quite high both days with regards to temperatures.
Snow chances begin Monday afternoon across southwest Nebraska
and Monday evening in the rest of the area. There appears to be
two general rounds of snow. The first Monday night through
Tuesday morning with the front and a northern stream shortwave,
then the second Tuesday night through much of Wednesday with a
second shortwave moving across the Rockies. May see a brief
break between the systems Tuesday afternoon. Each system has the
potential to bring a few inches of light snow, with the second
round perhaps slightly more than the first with better dynamics
from a stronger shortwave which moves directly over the area.
Total amounts across the area from both systems currently run in
the 3-6 inch range (model average) with impacts mitigated
somewhat by the extended time frame in which it falls. Still not
seeing much in the way of wind with this event. Snow begins to
wind down Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Thursday
appears dry at this time.
There could be another system sneaking in Friday night with
another round of light snow. Models generally show less than
one inch with it, but there is considerable spread, so
confidence is low at this time on any potential impacts.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025
Stratus this afternoon eroded before making it to the KMCK
terminal but with it still lingering a county east and county
south will maintain a FEW025. For KMCK through the evening
confidence has increased a little regarding IFR visibilities
and ceilings impacting the terminal. The question will be how
long will it last as a cold front moves across the area
overnight. If the fog can persist then dense fog is possible
along with some icing due to freezing fog. KGLD at this time is
not forecasted to see any fog or stratus concerns at this time.
As the cold front sweeps through winds will become northerly and
breezy to gusty. Confidence has also increased in stronger wind
potential with the stronger winds currently favoring KGLD where
gusts around 40 knots is possible. Winds will persist through
the morning Saturday before slowly waning. A period of flurries
or light snow is possible through the morning hours (mainly
after 14Z) for KGLD but not anticipating and flight category
impacts. Confidence in the flurries or light snow is around 10%
at this time.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
652 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Narrow Winter Storm Warning issued across central Minnesota
into northwest Wisconsin.
- Accumulating snow late this eveningthrough Saturday morning
and early afternoon.
- Widespread snow amounts around 3 to 5 across central Minnesota
and western Wisconsin. Pockets of higher amounts (6+) are
possible, especially across western Wisconsin.
- Well below normal temperatures will move in behind the
Saturday system, with sub-zero lows Sunday night and even
colder lows (negative teens to 20s) Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
We decided to upgrade a narrow swath of our area into a Winter
Storm Warning. This follows near where the HRRR is showing storm
total QPF near 0.4", which when converting to snow with an
expected ratio of 16 or 17 to 1 pushed snow totals up into the
6-7" range over about a 20-30 mile wide west-east oriented band.
This enhanced snowfall is being largely aided by the appetizer
of snowfall we`ve seen develop over central MN within a strong
zone of h7-h6 fgen. With the main entree still back over
southern NoDak (where the SPC issued an MCD for heavy snowfall),
we felt comfortable enough to squeeze a very narrow extension
of the Winter Storm Warning out of the south end of the Grand
Forks NWS coverage area across the northern boundary of ours.
This may not be the only headline update needed though. We`ll
see what the 00z HRRR does, but right now, there is little
difference in our snow forecast between Mankato and Albert Lea
and Fairmont, so we may be looking to add the I-90 corridor into
the advisory as well since there is currently little difference
in the forecast for the I-90 corridor and the advisory off to
its north.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
The forecast has not changed much over the last 12 hours, with
accumulating snow moving into western Minnesota by this evening.
A deepening surface low to the south will provide weak warm air
advection at the same time high pressure moves south from
Canada. This setupwill lead to a frontogenetically-driven snow
event for the Upper Midwest. As is often the case with fgen
driven snow, there will be bands of higher QPF/snow amounts.
Determining exactlywhere those bands will set up can be
difficult, but a general consensus between the models indicates
it will be just north of the Twin Cities Metro (but south of
Duluth). From a timing perspective, light snow will begin in
western Minnesota as early as 7-8PM, but the more intense snow
wont start for a few hours after that. The Metro area likely
wont see much snow accumulate prior to midnight, but the rates
will peak shortly after in the 2-7AM timeframe. Western
Wisconsin likely wont see anything until after midnight,but
things will linger slightly longer into the early afternoon
hours on Saturday. All-in-all, this event will take place when
the vast majority of people are sleeping, which is good from an
impact point-of-view. Areas in western Wisconsin may see more
travel impacts due to the later arrival and shift into more of
the daylight hours.
As mentioned above, there will be a band of higher QPF in
central/eastern MN and western WI. Guidance continues to
indicate 0.3 to 0.4 QPF will fall within this band, tapering to
0.25 in the Metro, and quickly dropping to 0.15 or less for the
far southern portion of Minnesota (Mankato and south). This will
be a more light and fluffy snow, with snow to liquid ratios
slightly above the climatologicalnorm in the 14-18:1 range. The
lower ratios will be in areas just south of the Metro as weaker
forcing and drier air will inhibit anything higher. Equating
this to snow amounts, 3 to 5 can be expected for most across our
forecast area, with lesser to the south.Again with the fgen
banding, the location of the band will be where we see the
highest ratios and snow rates. These locations are also most
likely to see 6+ of snow. Although QPF amounts have
noticeablydropped since forecasting for this event began,
whether or not a specific location sees 5 or 6 wont make a
difference in terms of impacts. The biggest takeaway should be
that it will snow and it will need to be plowed for the majority
of southern and central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Taking
a look at current Winter Weather headlines, we have expanded
the Winter Weather Advisory to cover our entire area, minus the
southernmost tier of counties in Minnesota (along I-90). This
advisory is mostly due to expected snow amounts and associated
travel impacts. There is a limited potential for blowing snow in
SW MN, but nothing major due to lower snow amounts and a short
time frame of concern.
Looking to Sunday and beyond, things will get cold. Canadian
high pressure will settle in behind the departing low, dropping
high temperatures into the single digits with even colder
apparent temps. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday night lows will
be the coldest of the week, with wind chills in the negative 20s
in western Minnesota. Western Wisconsin will be roughly 10 to
15 degrees warmer, but still below zero. Looking into longer
term chances at any more weather makers, there is decent
agreement between ensembles for a few systems over the next two
weeks, but none of which are looking significant. This means our
pattern of a light dusting to half inch here and there will
continue beyond this weekends system.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 554 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025
Forcing along a band of 700-600 mb fgen has resulted in a
narrow, east-west band of snow to setup across central MN. It
started out in AXN and STC, though it may nudge north of STC
shortly. This band has also resulted in moving up the mention of
snow at RNH. For all other terminals, this band remain north of
them and as a result, delayed some the start of snow at RWF,
MKT, & MSP. Behind the snow, winds will increase out of the NW,
but not enough to create BLSN. Other bit of uncertainty at this
point behind the snow is how quickly will MVFR cigs clear out,
though that is more of an issue for the 6z TAF period.
KMSP...Still anticipating about 3" of snow at MSP. Arrival of
snowfall is starting to creep back an hour or two, likely
starting between 8z and 10z. The heaviest snow, with snow rates
around 0.5" per hour, will come between 12z and 17z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts becoming W.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR cigs. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST Saturday for Benton-
Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Sherburne-
Stearns-Todd.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST Saturday for Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Meeker-Pope-Redwood-Renville-
Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Saturday for Chisago.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
Saturday for Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Dakota-Goodhue-
Hennepin-Le Sueur-McLeod-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-
Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright.
WI...Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Saturday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Polk-Rusk.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST
Saturday for Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
931 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Potent, moisture-laden systems will impact the area Saturday,
and early to mid next week, each with heavy rain, and mixed
wintry precipitation.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 930 PM Friday...
Have updated the forecast by inserting some chances for
precipitation along the southern coal fields and southeastern
WV to account for incoming light showers from the west. The
rest of the forecast is on track.
As of 545 PM Friday...
Quiet weather persists until the overnight. The forecast is on
track with only minor changes to certain parameters such as
winds. Will re-evaluate later to see if anything has to be
updated or not.
As of 200 PM Friday...
A high pressure system will provide dry weather this evening before
sliding off to the northeast.
A system will then push precipitation into the area late tonight
into Saturday. With the high providing a light northeast flow
over the lowlands and a southeast flow over the mountains, there
is some concern that precipitation could start as freezing rain
or snow, before turning over to rain. In the lowlands this
transition will be quick with a couple hours difference in the
precipitation or rising temperatures making a difference.
Confidence is not high enough at the moment to issue an advisory
for the lowlands, but if any problems should occur, it would be
generally be north of the I-64 corridor. For the southeast
upslope counties where the colder air normally gets trapped,
confidence is high enough in freezing rain for Pocahontas and
eastern Randolph counties, so have issued a Winter Weather
Advisory there. This situation will need to be monitored closely
as additional counties could be added tonight.
Another concern is with flooding. While many models are not as
excited as the last event and convection should be more limited,
the 12Z HRRR, 12Z meso NAM, and the FV3 models are concerning.
The 12Z HRRR shows a 2 inch band over the southern West Virginia
coal fields into the southern and central mountains. The FV3
shows 1 to 1.5 inch amounts in the same area. The meso NAM is
similar to the FV3 in that area, with a 2.3 inch bullseye over
the northern West Virginia mountains. With only one day of
recovery and many streams still running about half bankfull,
decided to go with a Flood Watch for Saturday into Saturday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 151 PM Friday...
A cold front will cross the region early Sunday morning, and
precipitation should end for most areas by daybreak with dry weather
returning for the rest of Sunday. The Flood Watch will expire at
09Z Sunday with any threat of heavy rain diminishing.
Temperatures should end up close to normal for early February
with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
A weak mid-level disturbance may bring isolated rain/snow showers
late Sunday night into Monday morning across southwest Virginia and
far southern West Virginia. Slight chance PoPs have been added.
The rest of Monday should be largely dry with seasonable
temperatures. The next significant system will arrive late Monday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 151 PM Friday...
The next significant system arrives Monday night, lasting through
Tuesday, with many questions still remaining. Precipitation type is
still highly uncertain, as there is still plenty of
disagreement between models. The GFS has been hinting at a
potential significant accumulating snow event for much of the
region, even across the lowlands. However, several other models,
including the ECMWF, keep this event as mostly rain across the
lowlands with some snow in the mountains. The key in determining
precipitation type will be the track of low pressure. A surge
of low-level warm air, like the ECMWF shows, would keep the
precipitation type as predominately rain across the lower
elevations. Even if precipitation does remain as mostly snow
across the lower elevations, surface temperatures only look
marginally cold at best. This would yield lower snow ratios and
some melting on contact with pavement. Again, many questions
remain, so stay tuned.
This system will exit the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Models show another potent system approaching from the
southwest Thursday, which at this time, looks to be mainly in the
form of rain across the lower elevations and a rain/snow mix in the
higher elevations.
Given our saturated soils from yesterday`s rainfall and some rivers,
creeks and streams running higher than normal, we will be watching
next week closely to see if there could be additional flooding
problems.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 PM Friday...
VFR conditions expected until the overnight hours when mainly
rain enters the area from west to east affecting the western
sites first. There should be minor VIS restrictions down to
MVFR and CIGs will eventually go down to MVFR with some possible
IFR at PKB. For the eastern sites, restrictions to VIS will be
slightly lower due to heavier rain and especially at EKN with snow
to start off. The rain will persist into tomorrow with MVFR
CIGs dominating. Winds will rotate out of the northeast to the
southeast by tomorrow afternoon.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions late
tonight and Saturday could vary. Freezing rain or snow is
possible at the onset of precipitation, mainly over southeast
Ohio and northern West Virginia.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EST 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible Saturday evening into early next week
with intermittent precipitation.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from 3 AM EST Saturday through late Saturday night
for WVZ005-006-013>016-018-024>030-033-034-039-040-
515>526.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for
WVZ523-524-526.
OH...None.
KY...Flood Watch from 3 AM EST Saturday through late Saturday night
for KYZ105.
VA...Flood Watch from 3 AM EST Saturday through late Saturday night
for VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY/JZ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JZ