Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/03/25
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
449 PM MST Sun Feb 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 437 PM MST Sun Feb 2 2025
- Record high temperatures are expected in many areas Monday and
Tuesday.
- Warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions will create elevated
fire weather concerns for portions of NM through the entire week,
particularly Wednesday and Friday afternoons over eastern NM.
- Snowmelt in the mountains may begin to create some runoff flow.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 PM MST Sun Feb 2 2025
Spring-like weather is in store this week with well above normal
temperatures, low humidity, breezy west winds, and periodic high
clouds. Record high temperatures are expected in many areas on
Monday and Tuesday. The downsides to the warmer weather will be
stronger winds and elevated wildfire risk Wednesday, Friday, and
Saturday. Snowpack in the mountains will also begin eroding. Far
northeast NM may see a weak cold front flirt with the area by mid
to late week where temperatures may remain a little closer to
normal. This front will attempt to surge southwest into more of
eastern NM by Sunday with cooler temperatures over a larger area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 223 PM MST Sun Feb 2 2025
Cirrus clouds are temporarily thinning out this afternoon, and
temperatures are soaring above climatology. Wind speeds in the
eastern half of NM are not yet as high as they were at this time
yesterday, but stronger flow aloft is mixing down to the surface as
the lee-side surface trough persists. The 700 mb flow is still
progged to increase more late this afternoon into the early evening
with speeds of 40-50 kt buffeting the Sangre de Cristos. A glance at
model cross sections reveals some tight omega couplets, and any
mountain wave activity would likely only impact the ridges to the
east slopes with the couplets shown to break up farther to the lee
(east) of the mountains. Gusty conditions (40-50 mph) will still
impact the east slopes through the overnight with speeds actually
reducing during the day Monday as the focus for gusts shifts toward
the central highlands. Gusts Monday afternoon in the central
highlands should be notably less than the past two days (20-30 mph).
Also of note, cirrus clouds will increase again late tonight and
more-so into the daytime Monday. Similar to last night, winds along
and east of the central mountain chain will remain high enough to
keep the boundary layer partially mixed, leading to milder overnight
temperatures, and the incoming cirrus will hamper radiational
cooling. Although the cirrus will turn thicker on Monday, they are
forecast to be at higher levels, closer to 200 mb which should lean
towards more translucency. All this to say, the cirrus will not
hamper daytime heating much, and record-breaking temperatures will
be common in many zones Monday. The cirrus would then thicken more
at 300mb Monday night, once again inhibiting radiational cooling and
keeping low temperatures mild and well above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM MST Sun Feb 2 2025
Another day of record high temperatures is in store Tuesday as very
dry west-southwest flow takes hold of the region. Thick cirrus in
the morning will clear from west to east and give way to max temps
near 25F above normal. Downslope flow into eastern NM will lead to
another day with highs in the 70s and 80s. The first 70F this season
at KABQ is expected, which would be the earliest 70F reading since
1963, the 6th earliest on record, and over a month earlier than the
average of March 9th.
A weak shortwave trough racing east across the central Rockies
Wednesday will force flow aloft more zonal over NM with very weak
cold air advection across the north and west. Highs will still be
10 to 20F above normal with a few more records likely, especially
eastern NM where even stronger downslope flow occurs. A few areas
along the Sangre de Cristo Mts may see wind gusts exceed 50 mph as
700-500mb flow nears 55kt. The boundary layer will likely stay
mixed Wednesday night along and east of the central mt chain where
min temps stay well above normal. Relatively weaker flow aloft on
Thursday will help taper winds but temps will remain well above
normal areawide with very low humidity and few more records.
The H5 gradient will strengthen over the southwest CONUS by Friday
as an unseasonably strong upper ridge over northern MX builds north
and an upper trough presses southward into the Great Basin. More
widespread breezy to locally windy conditions are expected over
the region Friday thru Sunday along with periods of thicker high
clouds. Temps will remain above normal with very low humidity once
again. Folks are encouraged to be mindful of fire safety as the
risk for wildfires will increase this week.
A cold front flirting with northeast NM by late in the week may
keep temps cooler around Clayton with northeast winds. This front
will attempt to surge southwest into more of eastern NM Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 437 PM MST Sun Feb 2 2025
Very high (> 90%) confidence in VFR persisting at all TAF sites
over the next 24 hours. Zonal (west-to-east) flow aloft has
induced modest lee-side surface troughing over eastern NM this
afternoon, leading to SE winds at KROW. Most sites will follow a
diurnal wind pattern, with the current lull in high cirrus
coverage re-materializing into the daytime hours on Monday. The
main caveat and potential hazard is stronger westerly winds around
40-50KT in northern NM across the ridgetops around 700mb/10,000
ft. MSL. Some model guidance is hinting at the development of LLWS
around KLVS later tonight through early tomorrow morning. However,
trends in RAP model soundings for KLVS show a downtick in the
winds near 2000 ft. AGL by the time surface winds decouple and
drop below 10 knots. Have opted not to include LLWS for now, due
to relatively low confidence (30%) in it developing prior to 06Z,
but will take a closer look before next TAF issuance.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 PM MST Sun Feb 2 2025
The stretch of dry and much warmer than normal weather will persist
this week with daily periods of breezy to windy conditions
developing each afternoon. In fact, temperatures will be so warm
that conditions will mimic those of March or early April. Relatively
stronger west winds in the upper levels along with a recurring a lee-
side surface trough over southeast CO and northeast NM will be the
culprits for repetitive rounds of breezy to windy conditions most
afternoons. With wind direction predominantly prevailing from the
west, warm and drier air will also be working into the Land of
Enchantment, and much of the eastern half of NM will observe
downslope winds that lead to compressional warming effects. Snowpack
is expected to quickly sublimate (disappear) on many of the ridges
and downslope (east slope) areas this week, stealing fuel moisture
while finer fuels also gain combustibility. Minimum humidity values
of 10 to 20 percent will be common each afternoon, keeping a
marginal to elevated threat for fire weather conditions,
particularly over much of the southwestern and eastern Fire Weather
Zones. On both Wednesday and Friday, the weather pattern will bring
increased potential for more widespread critical conditions, as wind
speeds will trend higher both days. The warmer temperatures and
stronger transport winds (winds at the top of the mixed layer), will
occasionally yield improved smoke ventilation rates each day this
week, but this will come with the risks of quicker fire spread due
to the gusty and dry conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 29 67 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 22 62 24 65 / 0 0 0 0
Cuba............................ 28 66 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 23 70 24 67 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 25 67 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 24 70 24 69 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 26 70 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 38 71 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
Datil........................... 31 70 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
Reserve......................... 23 73 25 71 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 33 76 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 26 58 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
Los Alamos...................... 36 62 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
Pecos........................... 36 66 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 32 59 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
Red River....................... 27 53 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
Angel Fire...................... 29 56 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
Taos............................ 24 59 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
Mora............................ 37 68 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
Espanola........................ 28 67 29 70 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe........................ 34 63 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 32 65 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 41 66 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 40 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 33 69 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 34 68 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
Belen........................... 29 70 31 72 / 0 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 34 68 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 28 70 30 72 / 0 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 33 69 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 27 70 30 72 / 0 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 39 66 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 34 67 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 36 75 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 38 65 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 37 66 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
Edgewood........................ 34 67 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 25 71 26 71 / 0 0 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 34 66 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
Mountainair..................... 35 70 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 34 71 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 39 73 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 41 71 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
Capulin......................... 36 68 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
Raton........................... 33 70 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
Springer........................ 31 76 29 72 / 0 0 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 36 73 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
Clayton......................... 43 79 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
Roy............................. 38 75 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 37 82 39 80 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 42 78 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 39 82 38 80 / 0 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 42 82 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
Portales........................ 40 83 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 36 80 35 79 / 0 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 39 82 41 82 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 44 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
Elk............................. 43 79 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...53-Schroeder
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
940 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread light snow and some patchy light freezing
drizzle will continue overnight, which will lead to slippery travel
conditions across the region. A brief warmup opens the week with
some rain or snow showers Monday afternoon and night ahead of a
cold frontal passage. The pattern remains busy through the week into
next weekend, as another system brings widespread precipitation
Wednesday into Thursday with snow, ice, and rain all possible.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:
- A clipper system will bring widespread light snow with some
patchy drizzle also possible overnight. Winter weather
advisories have been issued for western CT and MA (mainly for
the snow), and for southern Herkimer County (mainly for
freezing drizzle).
Discussion:
Update as of 939 PM EST... The snow shield associated with the
surge of isentropic lift ahead of the warm front is surging to
the east to northeast across the forecast area. Many
observations of light to moderate snowfall (1/2SM to 1 SM). We
are noting a back edge over the western Adirondacks and the
western Mohawk Valley on the latest KENX radar. Some patchy
freezing drizzle has been noted upstream over w-central NY and
over sites like KBGM (UP...a mix of snow, sleet and freezing
drizzle). The latest 00Z 3-km HRRR shows some patchy freezing
drizzle mainly west of the Hudson River Valley and over the
western New England higher terrain. The pcpn freezing drizzle
may mix with a little snow as ice is lost in the clouds. The
main thrust of snow will continue another 2 to 3 hours over the
forecast area and the pcpn will dwindle with the better forcing.
We updated the PoPs, WX and temps trends. Still expecting 1-4"
and we will continue to monitor the freezing drizzle threat. We
will issue an SPS until 1 am for locations west of the Hudson
River Valley and Lake George. Temps continue to rise into the
teens and 20s.
Previous update:
Update as of 618 PM EST: Leading edge of warm advection pcpn
has reached the Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills, southwest
Dacks and the Capital Region, as the column continues to
saturate. 1 to 3 hundredths noted in the NYS mesonet
observations in the Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills with
some seen on the webcams. We will rapidly see the snow
overspread eastern NY and western New England over the next
couple of hours. Snow rates may increase to a half an inch/hour
with the isentropic lift strengthening. Some changes to PoPs and
snow timing prior to 06Z/MON with this update. Also continuing
of temps steady or slightly rising in the warm advection pattern
overnight, as temps rise thru the teens and 20s.
Previous Near Term:
As of 4:00 PM EST...Our region remains quite chilly this
afternoon, with temperatures mainly in the 10s and 20s. The main
focus through the near term will be a clipper system that is
expected to impact the region this evening and tonight.
Currently, surface high pressure and an upper ridge axis have
moved off to our east, with a fairly potent upper shortwave
tracking through the southern Great Lakes region. Surface low
pressure will track north of the Great Lakes this evening and
tonight. SFC analysis shows an inverted trough/weak wave of low
pressure along the system`s mid-level warm front, which is
approaching from the west as an upper shortwave tracks from the
southern Great Lakes into NY. Precip will have some dry air to
contend with initially, but snow should overspread the region
this evening, mainly form 4-8 pm from west to east. Snow will
taper off tonight around/shortly after midnight. Temperatures
will hold steady or slowly rise through much of tonight with
lows in the 10s to 20s.
Since this system is fairly progressive, snowfall amounts will
generally remain light, with a widespread 1-3" and some
isolated 2-5" amounts possible in the Berkshires and perhaps the
southern Greens. That being said, snow could fall moderate to
even locally heavy at times for a couple hours this evening,
especially around the I-90 corridor. The 850 mb LLJ increases to
45-50 kt, resulting in strong isentropic lift on the 275-285 K
theta surfaces, and there will be increasing moisture with
southerly flow around the back side of the departing high. Lift
generally looks to be maximized below the DGZ, but with a cold
atmosphere and strong lift the snow should still be light and
fluffy, with rations around 12-15:1. 12z HREF has probabilities
for 3/4" per hour snowfall rates over 60-70% along much of the
I-90 corridor and into the northern Berkshires. 1" per hour
snowfall rates are possible, although probabilities are lower
(20-30%). Given these expected accumulations and the fact that
advisory criteria is only 3" for Berkshire and Litchfield
Counties, we have issued a winter weather advisory for these
zones in collaboration with WFOs OKX and BOX.
As the snow is ending, model forecast soundings suggest that we
will lose cloud ice, although low-levels remain saturated. This
will likely lead to some pockets of freezing drizzle late
tonight into early tomorrow morning. Greatest likelihood looks
to for freezing drizzle looks to be across the western Mohawk
Valley, Catskills, and high terrain of western New England. Ice
accumulations will be light, on the order of a glaze to up to a
couple hundredths of an inch, with the main concern being
slippery travel conditions. Given the expected patchy freezing
drizzle, we have also issued a winter weather advisory for
southern Herkimer County. Have also wrapped this into the
advisory for western New England as well. We don`t have enough
areal coverage of icing to extend the advisory into the
Catskills or southern Greens, but will have to monitor trends
and upstream observations over the next several hours to see if
an expansion into these areas could be needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:
- Rain showers transitioning to snow showers expected tomorrow
afternoon and night, mainly in the high terrain. Some, light
freezing rain could also be possible at the onset across the
southern Adirondacks.
- Mainly dry and cold Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Discussion:
Monday morning, a few isolated patchy areas of light freezing
drizzle are possible across the terrain, but this should come to
an end rather quickly as temperatures rise above freezing.
Mainly dry conditions are then expected through the morning.
During this time, the previously mentioned surface low will be
tracking to our north, and its surface warm front will lift
northwards, putting most of our area in the warm sector. 850 mb
temperatures actually rise above freezing from around I-90
southwards, which combined with W/SW downslope flow off of the
Catskills well help temperatures climb into the 40s from the
Capital District southwards tomorrow afternoon into the evening.
Further north, closer to the warm front, it will remain cooler
with highs in the 30s.
In the late afternoon and evening, the system`s cold front
tracks southeastwards into our region, bringing an additional
round of precip. In some of the more sheltered areas of the
southern ADKs, some pockets of light freezing rain are possible
at the onset of precip, but all areas should eventually rise
above freezing with any precip falling as plain rain. As the
colder air works in, precip changes back over to snow showers
before ending. Greatest precip amounts look to occur over the
W/NW facing upslope areas north of the Capital District. For
valley areas from the Capital District southwards, precip will
dry up as the front approaches with the best upper forcing
remaining well to the north. All in all, a couple inches of
additional snowfall along with up to a light glaze of ice will
be possible across the southern ADKs and southern Greens, with
mostly rain elsewhere. Lows Monday night drop into the 10s for
the ADKs and 20s for most of the rest of the region, except for
the Mid Hudson Valley and I-84 corridor where lows will be in
the low 30s. With temperatures dropping below freezing, any
wet/slushy surfaces could become slippery.
Tuesday and Tuesday night...Behind the cold front, we will get
another good shot of cold air on Tuesday into Tuesday night.
850 mb temperatures will approach -20C in the ADKs, and with
W/NW low-level flow a few lake effect snow showers will be
possible across the western ADKs, western Mohawk Valley,
northern Catskills, with some upslope enhanced snow showers also
possible in southern VT. Any accumulations will be very light.
With the surface low departing to the northeast and high
pressure building in from the west, it will be quite breezy with
gusts up to 35 mph. This will make it feel even colder than the
actual temperatures, which will range from 10s in the ADKs to
30s in the valleys. Tuesday night, the surface high settles
overhead and winds diminish, which should allow for favorable
radiative cooling conditions. Have therefore gone below guidance
for overnight lows, with single digits for most areas and
negative single digits for the ADKs which will be closest to the
surface high. Any lake lingering lake effect/upslope snow
showers diminish Tuesday afternoon as the surface high builds
in.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
- High confidence in widespread precipitation Wednesday night and
Thursday region-wide, but low confidence in precipitation type and
resulting accumulations.
- Another storm system possible late next weekend.
Discussion:
A dry daytime Wednesday will give way to increasing chances of
precipitation across the region beginning Wednesday evening.
Confidence continues to increase that this will be a widespread
precip event, with impacts expected across the region Wednesday
night and Thursday. However, significant questions remain about
precip type.
The meteorological setup will feature a northern stream trough
tracking into the Great Lakes, with a separate shortwave out ahead
of it that will track off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The primary
surface low associated with the parent trough will likely track into
the Great Lakes region into southern Ontario and Quebec, while a
secondary coastal low may develop south of our region as the upper
shortwave emerges over the Atlantic. If and how quickly this
secondary low develops, as well as its strength and track, will
determine whether we see more in the way of wintry precip or more of
a mix to rain. At this time, all areas should see at least a brief
shot of snow at the onset. If the colder solution plays out, then we
could see the snow last longer before eventually changing to a
wintry mix for our southern areas. However, if the warmer solution
plays out with a stronger low tracking west of our region and a
weaker coastal low, then the initial snow would likely be quite
brief before transitioning to a mix and eventually rain. If this
warmer solution does indeed play out, then portions of our region,
especially along and north of I-90, would likely see a period of
freezing rain due to a retreating surface high to the east/northeast
and a cold antecedent airmass. While even the large-scale details
have a fairly wide range of possible outcomes, it looks like at
least the Thursday AM commute and possibly Thursday evening commute
could be slippery.
Precip will taper off Thursday night behind the system`s cold front,
which will bring another shot of cold air to the region along with
breezy conditions for Friday. While some lake effect snow may be
possible for western areas with the incoming cold air mass, most of
the region remains dry Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds
over the region. Friday night could end up quite chilly if the
surface high moves in early enough to support favorable radiational
cooling conditions.
There is yet another chance for precipitation again for the second
half of next weekend. The setup is not all that different from the
midweek system, so once again there are some significant questions
about what type of precip we could see and how much. These details
likely won`t be ironed out for several more days.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Light to moderate snow will overspread the terminals over the next 1-
2 hours, bringing MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities through
early Monday morning. Brief drops to LIFR visibilities will be
possible in heavier bursts of snow, and have included TEMPO groups
at KGFL/KALB/KPSF where confidence of this is high. Snow will
taper off from west to east around 06 UTC, with a brief period
of freezing drizzle possible where lower MVFR/IFR ceilings
linger (currently confidence is higher at KPSF). Once the system
exits, VFR conditions will return to KPOU for the remainder of
the period, with lingering high-end MVFR ceilings elsewhere
thanks to low-level moisture. The exception is KALB, where a
brief period of VFR conditions will possible from morning to
midday before MVFR conditions return late in the period. Light
and variable winds initially will increase to around 5-10 kts
out of the south Monday.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHSN...FZRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for NYZ038.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Main/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Main/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Speck
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
943 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving low will bring a period of snow and light
wintry mix to the area tonight. It warms up to above average
levels on Monday, under mainly cloudy skies. Temperatures fall
back to seasonal levels with just a few light snow showers or
flurries around for Tuesday and Wednesday. Watching a
potentially more impactful system, which looks to bring a wintry
mix changing to rain by Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
940 PM Update
The steady snow is racing east out of the forecast area at this
time. Behind this there will be areas of freezing drizzle, mixed
with light snow showers or sleet showers through the late
evening and early overnight hours. Updated the winter weather
advisories to reflected additional snow and ice amounts (very
light). May be able to cancel the advisories early if the
freezing drizzle is completely ending by 2-4 AM (instead of the
current 5 AM end time)...especially for west-central portions of
the CWA. Will keep a close eye on trends and precipitation
types heading into the overnight. Temperatures are currently in
the 20s areawide and now look to generally remain below freezing
through early to mid-morning Monday in most locations. Minor
tweaks to Monday`s forecast, but temperatures looks to rise well
into the 40s over the area by afternoon, under mostly cloudy
skies. Most of the rain showers hold off until late afternoon,
across the NY Thruway corridor and perhaps northern Susquehanna
region; precipitation type will be all rain through sunset.
720 PM Update
The steady moderate to locally heavy snow is racing east across
the forecast area at this time. Based on radar trends it looks
like the steady snow will end along and west of I-81 by 8-9 PM,
and then exit all of NE PA and the Catskills by around 10-11
PM...lingering longest up across the Mohawk Valley region until
perhaps midnight. Behind the steady snow there will be flurries,
scattered snow showers and some patchy freezing drizzle. This
system is moving through a bit faster than expected in previous
forecast, so it is possible the patchy freezing drizzle ends a
bit soon, and most of the area looks to be generally dry after
2-3 AM tonight/early Monday morning. Most of the snowfall
reports show that a half inch to around 2 inches has fallen in
the advisory area as of 7 PM...with up to another inch
expected...except possibly 2 inches more for parts of Chenango,
Madison, Otsego, Delaware, Oneida and Sullivan counties. The
Wyoming valley is seeing a short burst of light to moderate snow
with cold temperatures. This allowed for quick accumulation on
untreated area roadways. Still expecting snowfall totals to be
between 0.5 to 2 inches across Lackawanna and Luzerne counties,
with probabilities for any freezing rain low at this time.
Therefore, will not expand the advisories, and just keep the
mention in the HWO/SPS.
355 PM Update
Main concerns in the near term will be a quick period of moderate
snow impacting much of the forecast area this evening. Some light
freezing rain is also possible at the onset across the central
southern tier and northern tier of NE PA...however it should change
to snow within about an hour of starting. After the steady snow
moves out by late evening, there will be lingering low level
moisture. Forecast soundings from the HRRR show dry air in the ice
crystal growth zone, so it would not be surprising to see some
patchy freezing drizzle, mixed with flurries and or plain drizzle
after midnight. Upstream observations from western NY and NW PA are
showing visibilities as low as 1/4SM with brief heavy snow being
reported at KBUF in the past hour. Total snowfall should range from
1 to 4 inches over CNY and NE PA. The lowest amounts (1" or less)
are expected in the Susquehanna Valley of NE PA and the Chemung
Valley of CNY...with the higher end amounts (2-4") across the higher
elevations of the Susquehanna region, Catskills and Oneida county. A
winter weather advisory has been issued, and is in effect until 5 AM
early Monday morning for all of CNY, and the northern tier of NE PA;
this advisory if for a combination of snow (1-4") and a light glaze
of ice from freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
Temperatures are in the 20s currently and will slowly rise after
midnight into the upper 20s to mid-30s. Areas across the Finger
Lakes, Central Southern Tier and Syracuse metro will likely rise
above freezing before daybreak Monday.
The rest of Monday morning and early afternoon will feature mainly
cloudy skies with mild temperatures rising well into the 40s for
highs. A cold front approaches late in the day or evening and brings
a renewed chance for rain showers from north or south over the area.
As 850mb temperatures fall to around -10C by daybreak Tuesday, the
lingering rain showers will eventually mix with and change over to
scattered snow showers late at night. Overnight lows fall into the
20s and lower 30s late at night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 PM Update...
An exiting wave introduces northwest flow over the area, and
with some help from moisture tapped from Lake Ontario, some
lighter lake effect snowfall is possible for Tuesday for the NYS
Thruway area through the early afternoon. Accumulations will
likely be 1 to 2 inches. High pressure begins to slide in from
the northwest Tuesday afternoon, cutting off the lake effect
snow. Conditions will remain dry through early Wednesday
morning.
The next system will start to bring snowfall over NE PA and the
Southern Tier later in the morning Wednesday, and spread
northward through the day.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 PM Update...
A front from the aforementioned system will push warmer air from
the south overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Although
model guidance shows some inconsistency, there is good agreement
between the ECMWF and Canadian, and the ECMWF has remained
rather consistent over the last few cycles. What it shows, and
as most models are starting to show, is a extensive mixed
precipitation event. As mentioned previously warm air begins
pushing in from the south overnight Wednesday and Thursday
morning, where current snowfall will begin to transition into
mixed precipitation, mainly freezing rain and snowfall. Chances
for mixed precipitation with the freezing rain component remain
through Thursday morning before starting to transition to a mix
of rain and freezing rain Thursday early afternoon, and then
fully transition to mainly rainfall by mid afternoon as
temperatures continue to surge upward. Deep warm air will allow
temperatures to top off in the low to mid 40s Thursday. Rainfall
continues through the rest of the day, and as temperatures begin
to fall again, there may be a mix of rain and snow mainly for
northern portions of Central NY Thursday evening.
As this system exits to the north and east Friday, northwest
flow becomes dominant, and colder air filters back in with some
lake effect snow in tow, which could persist through Friday
night. As we head towards the weekend, guidance differs in
possibilities. The next system, which is towards the end of the
long term period, looks to snow and mixed precipitation. Since
this is so far out, timing differs greatly. We`ll continue to
monitor guidance regarding the development of the potential next
system for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A quick-moving round of snow bringing IFR or worse visibility to
most terminals will be tapering off over the next 2-3 hours
with some lingering snow showers or flurries through 05-09Z.
There can also be some spotty freezing drizzle during this time.
Ceilings are expected to remain mainly MVFR/Fuel-Alt much of
the time through tomorrow afternoon and evening for the NY
terminals. There could be a small window for VFR conditions to
return late morning or early afternoon with ELM and ITH having
the best chance. Some rain showers are expected to move into RME
and SYR toward the end of the TAF period as a cold front
approaches.
AVP is expected to return to VFR conditions tomorrow morning and
remain VFR through the rest of the TAF.
Ahead of the approaching cold front, SWerly LLWS is expected to
develop at all terminals, generally between 20-23Z and persist
through the evening hours tomorrow night before dissipating.
Outlook...
Monday evening...scattered rain showers with associated
restrictions along with SWerly LLWS.
Late Monday night through Tuesday night...winds shift to the
northwest causing lake effect snow showers/intermittent
restrictions for NY terminals into Tuesday afternoon.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR for the daytime hours. Slight chance for
snow showers northeast PA and Twin Tiers (confidence moderate)
Wednesday night through Thursday...Larger system moves in with
uncertainty for precipitation types, but restrictions are
likely. (confidence moderate to high)
Friday...Lake effect snow showers likely in a northwest flow;
associated restrictions, especially SYR, ITH and RME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A significant portion of the North Branch Susquehanna, Upper
Delaware and Finger Lakes drainages are frozen with temperatures
since mid-January supportive of thickening river ice.
A minor thaw of about 12 hours is still expected for Monday
though dewpoints stay in the 30`s which would limit overall
melting. Minor ice issues can not be ruled out but look
unlikely.
Attention then turns to a low pressure system moving through
the Northeast on Thursday. This system has the potential to
usher in much milder air and higher dewpoints. In this scenario,
much of the area`s snow cover would likely be erased into
runoff. That combined with a decent rainfall is expected to
cause significant rises on area rivers resulting in at least a
moderate (50-60%) chance for ice jams and potential flooding.
The risk would be reduced should we continue to trend to a
cooler scenario and uncertainity remains high. We need to keep
a close eye on this.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for PAZ038>040.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...DK/MJM
HYDROLOGY...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
958 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periods of snow expected through Monday morning. New snowfall
will generally range from less than an inch north to a total
of 2 to 5 inches south, mainly along and south of Interstate
94. Some patchy blowing snow is also possible through Monday.
- Very cold wind chills as low as 35 below expected tonight
through Tuesday morning, especially across northern North
Dakota. Below average temperatures are forecast to remain
through the upcoming work week.
- Chances for accumulating snow (40 to 80%) will linger through
mid week, with additional chances later in the week
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2025
No significant updates this evening. No changes to the going
advisories. Made some minor adjustments to pops late this
evening into the early morning hours of Monday. Basically bumped
up pops this evening in the northwest. Light snow in Sydney MT
and Watford City ND, and based on the latest RAP, the northwest
may be in the exit region of a strong jet max. Some of the 00Z
guidance also pushed pops north a bit tonight in western ND.
Speaking of 00Z guidance, overall could not see making any
significant changes. Looking at just Bismarck, the qpf from the
HRRR dropped to around 0.11" at 00Z, compared to around 0.30"
at 18Z. The RAP was about the opposite and now is depicting over
0.30" qpf compared to around 0.15" at 18Z. In general, looking
at the various qpf solutions, they are a mix with some pushing
qpf farther north, while others still keep qpf mostly south of
the I-94 corridor. The 00Z SPC HREF shows a broad band of 2-4
inches over much of southwest and south central ND. This is very
similar to it`s previous run, seems reasonable and is similar
to our latest snow forecast. We`re sure there will be variations
with higher and lower amounts, but at this time we can`t see
adding any value by updating what`s currently in there. Perhaps
as we get closer to the overnight hours. The setup doesn`t look
real promising given the lack of isentropic ascent and low to
mid level northerly surface flow. However, the RAP is showing a
band of good 700mb fg forcing along the I-94 corridor with a
couple waves of Synoptic scale ascent. The strongest being in
the 06-09Z timeframe. We should also have some decent snow
ratios of around 20-1 over the swath of qpf. Will leave things
alone for now. Updated text products will be transmitted
shortly.
UPDATE
Issued at 534 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2025
Snow continues across much of southwest North Dakota, along and
south of I-94. Snow will slowly spread into northwest through
south central ND this evening and the north cental late this
evening into the overnight hours. Overall, few changes to the
going forecast at this time. Updated sky cover and pops based on
latest satellite and radar imagery, along with latest obs and
webcams. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2025
Currently, strong zonal flow aloft remains across the Northern
Plains, with a sfc ridge of high pressure extending from the Lee
of the Alberta Rockies to across northern and eastern North
Dakota. CAA in the wake of a cold front which moved through the
region last night maintains steady to falling temperatures,
currently ranging from around zero north to the teens south.
Strong upper level jet within zonal flow aloft will punch east
across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains
tonight, couple with mid level embedded waves. This forcing
coupled with overrunning flow will bring a swath of accumulating
snowfall to the northern South Dakota/southern North Dakota
region. Banded snow parameters have backed off a tad, but still
think there is a chance for some areas to see enhanced snowfall,
though the overlap and strength of low/mid level frontogensis
and Div Q is not very ideal. We are still seeing fairly high
probabilities of at least 1-2 inches of snow along and south of
I94, with some ensembles still hinting at a 20-30 percent chance
of 3 inches. Will continue to monitor and will message 2-5
inches in the Winter Weather Adv. product as we have been, and
also added Dunn and Mercer Counties. Limiting factor on how far
north the best accumulations will extend will be the
aforementioned sfc ridge, which while it does get displaced
farther north tonight, will still be a factor.
Cold weather headlines also remain valid for tonight through
Tuesday morning, with wind chill temperatures forecast as low as
35 below. Coldest period will be tonight/Mon AM when we expect
the stronger winds vs. Mon night.
Continued active zonal flow and upper level jet dynamics near
our region will persist across the Northern Plains through much
of this coming week. This pattern will support continue below
normal temperatures and periods of light accumulating snow
chances through the week. Additional cold weather headlines are
also likely, especially for the Wed night/Thu morning period
when a reinforced shot of colder air and wind is possible.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CST Sun Feb 2 2025
Snow, currently over southwest North Dakota, will spread east
and north tonight, then taper from west to east on Monday.
VFR conditions are expected most areas initially as snow begins,
with ceilings and visibilities gradually lowering to MVFR. Some
IFR visibilities in heavier bands of snow are expected. IFR
ceilings are possible at times but probabilities IFR ceilings
are generally around 20-40 percent via the NBM across the
southern TAF sites, and even lower north. Snow will end from
west to east late tonight through Monday morning, but generally
MVFR ceilings are forecast to remain through a good part of the
day on Monday across the forecast area. North to northeast
winds 10 to 20 knots will gradually shift to the north by Monday
morning and northwest by Monday afternoon. Winds could be gusty
at times overnight tonight through Monday afternoon.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021>023-025.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday for
NDZ018>020-031>037-040>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...TWH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
916 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
We`ve got an active week of weather ahead as a series of frontal
systems will yield periods of light snow tonight and again Monday
night. Periods of snow Monday night will transition to mostly
rain with warm advection riding ahead of a cold front. High
pressure will build into the region Tuesday and Wednesday before
our next complex system arrives Thursday with a chance for all
precipitation types across the region. An unsettled pattern
looks to continue by weeks end.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 901 PM EST Sunday...Quick update to taper snow off quicker
from west to east acrs our cwa based on latest radar trends and
associated well defined dry slot on GOES-16 mid lvl water vapor
imagery already approaching the SLV. In addition, did make some
minor tweaks to lower qpf and snowfall, but general idea of 1 to
3 inches tonight looks reasonable. Based on upstream obs acrs
western NY and parts of Michigan and latest HRRR sounding data
have gone ahead and added freezing drizzle to the grids aft
midnight acrs northern NY and into the higher trrn of
central/southern Greens. A light glaze is possible and we may
need an sps to highlight potential during the morning commute on
Monday morning.
Have taken a quick look at the 00z NAM/HRRR and feel some
headlines will be needed across most of northern NY into central
and northern VT late Monday into Monday night associated with
another round of light to moderate snowfall. Latest 00z NAM
shows an impressive band of favorable 850 to 700mb fgen forcing,
along with good deep moisture advection associated with robust
250mb jet, supporting pw values (0.60 to 0.75) of 2 to 3 std
above normal. In addition, have noted HREF probability of hourly
snowfall rates >1.0" is in the 60 to 70% range acrs northern NY
into parts of northern VT on Monday evening. Locally here in
the CPV thinking precip could start as a cold rain with temps
in the mid 30s, but as the higher precip rates arrive and winds
shift to the northwest precip should quickly changes to a heavy
wet snow, with rapid accumulation possible and travel quickly
becoming hazardous with snow covered and slippery roads and sfc
vis below 1SM. Snow ratios wl initially be in the 8 to 1 range,
but as cooler air aloft advects into the area, they should
improve to 10/12 to 1 as northerly winds develop. QFP looks to
be in the 0.35 to 0.65 range with localized amounts of 0.70 to
0.90 acrs the northern Dacks/northern Greens with a highly
elevational dependent snowfall of 1 to 5 inches
northern/central CPV to 2 to 6 inches SLV to 4 to 8 inches
northern Dacks and central/northern Greens by Tuesday morning.
Previous discussion...Light to moderate snow showers will move
in this evening from west to east as a warm front slides across
the area. Moderate snow is more likley across the Greens and
eastern Vermont were more moisture convergence is expected late
tonight into tomorrow morning. Snow showers will taper off by
sunrise Monday. Snow accumulations will be generally light with
1-3 inches of fluffy snow expected, locally higher across the
Adirondacks and Greens. Lows tonight will not be as cold as
previous nights with values in the mid to upper teens for most
of the area.
A dry slot will clear the region of precipitation during the day
on Monday before a cold front sweeps across the North Country
Monday afternoon. The low position still remains uncertain and
holds the precipitation types expected Monday night in
question. Models have trended towards the cooler side with less
time above freezing and more snow than rain. The Nam3km shows
rain initially with a quick shift to snow overnight, whereas the
HRRR brings the low track over the Canadian border allowing for
more warm advection into the region and a longer period of rain
for the valleys. Regardless of precipitation type, any rain
that does fall could lead to slick roads as pavement
temperatures are expected to be at or below freezing with little
sunshine during the day Monday to warm them. As the cold front
passes through, cold air on the backside will switch the
precipitation to all snow for the whole region by early Tuesday
morning. Northwesterly flow along the northern Adirondacks and
Green Mountains will help to squeeze any remaining moisture
resulting in some additional upslope snow accumulations during
the day on Tuesday. Snow accumulations Monday evening through
Tuesday are forecasted to be 1-3 inches, locally 2-4 inches in
the mountains. High pressure and more calm conditions look to
build in by Tuesday evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EST Sunday...Flow will become strongly unblocked by late
morning with gusty northwesterly winds and inversion height above
the mountain summits. Based on momentum transfer and modeled mixing
depths along with unidirectional northwesterly flow, have increased
forecast wind gusts during the daytime hours. Sustained winds of 15
to 20 MPH with maximum gusts will probably tend to be 35 to 42 MPH
along and east of the Adirondacks and Greens, with somewhat lighter
winds in the central/southern Champlain Valleys and west of the
Adirondacks. While dry air aloft will punch into the region, there
should be lingering light snow showers trending towards flurries
throughout the day. Clouds and flurries should primarily remain in
the typical spots across northeastern Vermont and northern
Adirondacks with favorable snow growth temperatures within the low
clouds. The multi- model ensemble QPF blend shows very light
precipitation amounts (no more than a few hundreths of an inch of
liquid is likely) in these areas. However, with a high fluff factor
of snow ratios exceeding 20:1, localized snowfall amounts exceeding
an inch are possible.
As modified Arctic air builds into the region and skies continue to
clear, a cold night is expected Tuesday night. Unlike this morning,
high pressure will still be to our west which will not promote ideal
radiational cooling. This high will also be weakening rather than
strengthening as it moves into the area, indicative of weaker
sinking motions and density differences that can promote cold air
drainage from higher elevations. Still, temperatures look seasonably
cold with lows potentially several degrees below normal ranging from
5 below to 5 above for most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 PM EST Sunday...Confidence in dry conditions on Wednesday
is high with probability of precipitation just about zero with high
pressure cresting overhead. Seasonable temperatures can be expected
as winds shift southerly or southeasterly and remain light. Then it
is increasingly likely that snow will arrive Thursday morning,
potentially impacting the morning commute. However, precipitation
types later in the day are uncertain. Precipitation amounts broadly
look to range from 0.25" to 0.5" over a fairly short period of time
(within 12 hours), with winter weather headlines probable if trends
continue. Suspect a scenario with greater snowfall amounts could
occur if a deepening secondary low develops to our south/east, which
has low predictability at this time.
Big picture, a front and associated low pressure system over in the
central US will be pushed eastward Wednesday night, while a stronger
upper level trough digs farther north and west across the Rockies.
Both systems will approach our area Thursday morning, one heading
towards the western Great Lakes and the other towards the
northeastern US. In response to large scale lift and abundant
moisture, widespread precipitation is looking like a lock for this
timeframe once the falling hydrometeors saturate the dry air
initially in place. All precipitation should be snow at the onset
before warming can bring any of the low level air above freezing.
With the trailing low pressure area in play, southerly flow is
assured and will lead to warming during the day on Thursday.
As such, surface temperatures will gradually warm and many places
could have a changeover to freezing rain before going to plain rain.
Probability of this happening based on the NBM looks reasonable
based on global ensemble data at this time, with chances of freezing
rain accumulation ranging from less than 25% in northeastern New
York through northern Vermont to as high as 40-60% in southern
portions of our Adirondack region eastward into south central
Vermont. It looks like if there is freezing rain it would tend to be
transient precipitation types trending towards plain rain given the
southerly flow/lack of cold air damming, which should reduce threat
of an ice storm or substantial ice accumulation.
Looking at ensemble storm tracks, which have been quite variable, no
significant changes are noted in the latest data with ENS tracks
largely west and deeper with the primarily low than GEFS/GEPS. GEFS
in particular tend to have a flatter upper air pattern with lower
heights than the ensemble mean, as the deterministic run has been
showing. Regardless, the general idea is the primary low pressure
area will track towards the St. Lawrence Valley and draw warmer air
aloft on its eastern flank. This warmer air is more likely to cause
a precipitation change from snow to freezing rain and rain as one
goes south. Agree with the previous forecaster that a flatter
scenario with deamplified flow suggests something closer to the GFS
with colder profiles and a weakening lead system is more likely than
one that has a deepening low phasing the two systems as the
deterministic ECMWF continues to depict.
Given the potential for surface temperatures in the valleys to warm
above freezing by Thursday evening and passage of a cold front
overnight, icy travel may develop for the Friday morning commute.
That being said, another round of gusty winds and upslope snow
Friday morning could also produce hazardous conditions. The weather
pattern largely looks like a rinse and repeat for Friday night into
Saturday as cold high pressure moves across the region and then
passes to our east by Saturday night.
The upper air pattern, with at least partial phasing of northern and
southern stream systems, looks more conducive to a stronger low
pressure system passing to our south on Sunday with widespread snow.
The potential snowstorm has more model consistency as recently
highlighted in the Climate Prediction Center`s Week 2 hazards
outlook of 40-50% chance for snowfall greater than 4 inches in our
region, as well as the latest ensemble clusters in which three of
the four show a few to several several inches of snow. Heaviest
amounts, per cluster mean snowfall, tend to be in southern and
eastern portions of our forecast area, but overall all of Vermont
and northern New York look favored to be impacted. As such, snow is
likely after midnight Saturday into the day before quickly exiting
to our east, with another round of upslope snow possible by Sunday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...A band of light snow with embedded heavier
elements will track quickly from southwest to northeast acrs our
taf sites over the next 1 to 3 hours. Vis will quickly drop to
IFR (1-2SM) with localized LIFR (1/2SM) in moderate snow
possible, before precip exits from west to east by 06z. Highest
confidence of IFR or lower is between 01z-04z, before back edge
quickly moves into our taf sites. Localized wind gusts of 10 to
20 knots from the south/southeast is possible after warm
frontal precipitation lifts acrs our region, except northeast
becoming southwest at MSS. Have noted plenty of low clouds with
IFR cigs upstream and feel some IFR cigs are possible after 06z
at SLK/MSS, given upstream trends, which would prevail into the
mid morning hours. Additional mix of rain/snow overspreads
northern NY taf sites btwn 18-21z and all of our tafs btwn
21-00z on Monday. Areas of wind shear also a threat, given the
developing southwest low level jet of 35 to 45 knots.
Outlook...
Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SN, Chance RA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SN, Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN,
Chance RA, Slight chance FZRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig/Taber
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Taber
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
910 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of dense fog possible late tonight and towards daybreak
over much of the southeast. Then, well above normal temperatures
and mainly dry weather are likely for much of next week. An
upper disturbance passing by Wednesday into Thursday may bring
some rain showers mainly to the northern Midlands.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):
- Coastal boundary moves inland tonight, with widespread dense
fog development late tonight.
Mostly clear skies early tonight, with light winds in place.
Later tonight a coastal boundary will be moving inland, bringing
additional low-level/surface moisture across the majority of the
cwa. Very dry air being shown by model soundings over top of the
surface moisture, with it indicating the trend towards fog. In
addition, several runs of the hrrr this evening continue to
show widespread dense fog development late tonight, peaking in
areal and lowest visibility coverage right around daybreak. Have
elected to go ahead and expand the dense fog advisory to include
the entire forecast area based on model trends. Temperatures
tonight will fall into the lower 40s, with some upper 30s
possible in the far north and west, although those may be
tempered slightly once the fog forms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Continuing dry weather with warmer temperatures and dry
frontal passage.
Monday and Monday night: The surface high pressure in New
England will now be out over the Atlantic Monday and we start to
see light winds turn out of the southwest. Mainly zonal flow
takes over aloft with an upper ridge starting to build across
the western and central US with a weak shortwave passing to our
north, likely aiding in ending any lingering wedge-like
conditions across the northern Midlands mainly. Skies are
expected to become mostly clear into the afternoon, though some
patchy fog or low stratus may linger through the morning as we
keep shallow low level moisture and light to calm winds. Dense
fog may linger until around 9am. With the expected mostly clear
skies and return of southwesterly winds at the surface, expect
highs to reach into the upper 60s to low 70s during the
afternoon. For the evening and overnight, mostly clear skies
continue with light winds, allowing temperatures to fall into
the mid to high 40s under strong radiational cooling conditions.
Tuesday and Tuesday night: Upper ridging continues to build
Tuesday, with a dry front likely passing by the late morning and
surface high pressure building in from the Gulf coast. Winds
start light out of the southwest before turning out of the west
to northwest behind this front and remain light the remainder of
the day. Mostly clear skies are expected to continue with this
upper ridging and surface high pressure, allowing our warm spell
to begin Tuesday afternoon with highs likely reaching into the
upper 70s for most and the mid 70s across northern spots. Upper
ridging begins to flatten out into the evening and overnight and
a shortwave begins to approach the region from the west as
moisture begins to increase ahead of this, likely aiding in
bringing in more cloud cover into Wednesday. Overnight
temperatures are expected to fall into the high 40s to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message(s):
- Temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal through at least the
middle of the week.
- Slight rain shower chances starting Thursday and into the
weekend, especially in the northern midlands.
Fairly good agreement among medium range models remains into
the extended period with mainly zonal flow expected aloft and
continuing above normal temperatures through Friday with a
series of weak shortwaves expected to pass through the region
starting Wednesday afternoon and into the weekend. A complex
front looks to set up across northern SC, and southern NC
starting Wednesday afternoon with surging moisture expected as
PWATs near 200 percent normal move in with increasing
southwesterly flow. This front is expected to begin lifting
north throughout Wednesday and into Thursday where guidance
continues to agree the first weak shortwave looks to pass just
to our north. This brings a slight chance of rain showers mainly
to the northern Midlands starting late Wednesday and into
Thursday as this area will be closer to the better forcing and
deeper moisture. Thursday brings slight chances for rain showers
mainly in the afternoon and evening as another shortwave likely
passes, with continuing high PWATs across the region. A cold
front will also look to approach the forecast area during the
afternoon and evening hours. The highest rain shower chances
will remain toward the northern Midlands but forcing may extend
further south, allowing slight rain shower chances to reach into
the central Midlands as well. Ensemble and deterministic
guidance has been trending upwards in the last couple runs for
some instability and thus a chance of thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon and evening, but confidence at this time remains
fairly low in this mainly due to the main shortwave passing
earlier Thursday.
More weak shortwaves are expected to continue moving into the
region through the end of the period but the exact placement and
timing of them are hard to pin down at this time. Due to this
and the expectation of continuing moisture returns in the
region, slight chances for rain showers continue toward the end
of the period, before a strong cold front approaches at the
start of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR-LIFR restrictions likely Monday morning.
Light winds will continue Sunday evening and into the early
overnight period with only some scattered strato-cu. Widespread
lowering vsby and cigs will then push in from the east after
07z for all TAF sites as a wave of increasing moisture
approaches. IFR-LIFR cigs and vsby are likely at OGB after 08z,
and after 09-10z for CAE, CUB, DNL, and AGS. Winds above the
surface layer will stay weak throughout the overnight period and
into Monday morning, so this will be a classic fog event as
opposed to a hybrid fog-stratus. Confidence is a bit lower
sub-1/4 mile fog at CAE, CUB, AGS, and DNL so went with a tempo
for 1/4 mile and VV002 at those sites around daybreak;
confidence is high at OGB. IFR-LIFR conditions are likely
continue through 15-16z with a quick improvement to VFR by late
morning- early afternoon.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions
expected.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
405 PM MST Sun Feb 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above to much above normal temperatures for most of the area
today and Monday.
- Near critical to locally critical fire conditions today along
and west of Kansas Highway 25 as south winds gust 30-40 mph.
Low confidence (10%) in critical conditions lasting 3+ hours.
- Cooler but closer to normal temperatures for most Tuesday
before above average temperatures return.
- Dry conditions are expected to continue through the workweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 PM MST Sun Feb 2 2025
1730Z Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicated low amplitude
short wave ridging across the High Plains with troughs noted over
the Pacific Northwest and near the Great Lakes. At the surface, lee
trough present across eastern Colorado with area of strong southerly
winds along the KS/CO border.
Main concerns in the short term will be temperatures and fog
potential as cold front approaches region.
Tonight...Relatively tranquil weather is expected tonight as H5
ridge flattens resulting in more zonal flow and increasing high
clouds. Cold front will slowly drift to the south across Nebraska
through the overnight hours and approaching the CWA by 12Z. While
timing of this front will have a large impact on sensible weather on
Monday, overnight impacts will be minimal with overnight lows
remaining above normal in most locations.
Monday to Monday Night...Forecast concerns turn to the timing of
strong cold front into the area. Front is currently located near the
SD to NE border with a much colder airmass observed behind it.
Models have generally come to a consensus on the position of the
front, with southern CWA likely seeing well above normal
temperatures. Regardless of the specific high temperatures, think
the warm temperatures will be short lived as temperatures fall
rapidly through the afternoon. Cold airmass will continue to slide
over the area through the overnight hours with winds decreasing and
becoming easterly. Low level warm air advection and upslope flow
will promote development of a large stratus deck behind the front.
Think boundary layer will remain rather dry throughout this period
so do not think there will be a threat for fog or freezing drizzle
initially. Expect cloud cover to keep temperatures from totally
bottoming out Monday night, although temperatures falling into the
lower teens looks likely.
Tuesday-Tuesday Night...Cold and cloudy conditions will prevail as
sfc high remains entrenched over the CWA. With overcast conditions
and persistent easterly flow, expect to see temperatures slow to
warm with temperatures around 30 degrees cooler than on Monday. Low
level flow will increase through the afternoon and through the
evening. This will bring another round of strong warm air advection
over the top of cold airmass, increasing overall forcing across much
of the area. Near sfc dry air still lowers confidence that
precipitation or fog could form in this setup, but with the
persistent and long duration of the forcing think there is at least
a small chance that precipitation will develop. With the low level
temperature profile remaining above -10C but well below 0C there
will be at least a small threat of freezing drizzle or patchy
freezing fog.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM MST Sun Feb 2 2025
A predominantly dry period is in store for the latter half of the
week with our next chance for light snow over the upcoming weekend.
On Wednesday the Tri-State area will under nearly zonal flow aloft
with a shortwave disturbance moving over the area helping to push
away the cold air mass moving in with Monday`s frontal passage.
Timing has jumped up a bit with the disturbance moving through
beginning in the morning hours. This has led to guidance warming a
bit more. Given some uncertainty for how long it takes for the
airmass to move out, we still see a 35-50 degree spread across the
Tri-State area for high temperatures in the Long-Range Ensemble
Forecast. Current forecast has highs ranging from the low to mid 40s
in the northeast to the mid to upper 60s in the southwest. Overnight
lows continue to have better consistency with temperatures in
the upper teens to mid 20s.
Once the shortwave exits the region, zonal flow will remain while
high pressure near the surface sits over New Mexico and Arizona.
With the high southwest of the area, temperatures will warm up
Thursday and Friday with highs in the 40s and in the upper 40s to
50s respectively. The concern for fire weather conditions remains
low as elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible due to
winds gusting to 30 mph over East-Central Colorado. The dry fuels
and potential for warmer temperatures and lower humidity values is a
concern for fire growth, but we have better confidence that we will
not have any critical fire weather days during the period.
Beginning late Friday another shortwave and mid-layer trough will
move over the Great Plains bringing in some moisture from the
Northwest CONUS. With this another cold front will move through
the area providing some lift than could bring some powdery snow
overnight Friday into Saturday for the northwest corner of the
area. Another round could occur Saturday evening into Sunday
morning. Little to no accumulation is expected given the limited
amount of moisture to work with. Cooler temperatures return
over the weekend with highs in the 40s to 50s on Saturday and
potentially the upper 30s to lower 40s on Sunday. Overnight lows
are forecast to be in the teens both nights.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 405 PM MST Sun Feb 2 2025
KGLD...VFR conditions will continue through the taf period. A
southerly wind around 12kts at taf issuance will fall to around
11kts from 01z-04z, veering to the southwest around 10kts from
05z-15z. From 16z-19z, winds continue to veer to the northwest
then north at speeds up to 10kts. After 20z, east to
east-southeast winds around 12kts with some gusts to 20kts are
forecast as a cold front backs into the area.
KMCK...VFR conditions will continue through the taf period. A
southerly wind around 11kts at taf issuance will become light
and variable from 05z-09z. From 10z-16z, west winds up to 10kts
veer to the northwest then northeast at similar speeds. After
17z, northeast winds gusting up to 20kts are forecast as a cold
front backs into the area.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...99
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
716 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A stationary front looks to bring at least a few inches of
snowfall over Menominee County late tonight through Monday morning.
This could create slick roads and significantly reduced visibilities
for the Monday morning commute. Therefore, a Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued.
- Light lake effect snow persists most of the week, but we continue
to monitor the potential for a midweek system to bring a few inches
of snow late Wed-Thurs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 438 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
Latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows a vigorous
shortwave and developing closed low moving east through northern
Ontario. A cold front associated with this feature will be moving
through Upper Mi tonight increasing mixing and gustiness of winds
later this evening into the overnight.
The pressure gradient on the southern periphery of the Ontario low
will be tightening across the area tonight, particularly over Lake
Superior and the Keweenaw Peninsula. This will lead to gusty
westerly winds with low-end gale gusts possible for a short period
over northern Lake Superior and west gusts 35-40 mph across the
Keweenaw this evening.
The other weather concern will be later tonight as forcing in the
left exit region of an upper level jet max of 130-150 kts nosing in
from the Northern Plains will induce an increased fgen response into
south central portions of Upper Michigan later tonight into Monday
morning. The fgen will likely lead to a band of heavier snowfall
into south central Upper Mi later tonight into Mon morning, and the
latest HREF Grand Ensemble probabilities seem to target far southern
Menominee County for the best chance of advisory criteria snowfall.
As a result, have kept the Winter Weather Advisory in effect for
Menominee County late tonight into Monday morning from 06Z-18Z for 2
to 5 inches of total accumulation, mentioning in the WSW statement
that the greatest snowfall totals will likely be south of US-2. The
midnight shift will likely want to keep a close eye on where the
fgen snow band exactly develops as there is some uncertainty on
details among the various high-res models, and given the timing of
the heavier snow expected to occur during the Monday morning commute
they may need to potentially add maybe Dickinson or Delta
counties into a headline as well.
Expect min temps tonight ranging from the mid to upper teens west to
lower to mid 20s central and east under mostly cloudy skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
The first half of the extended period is dominated by quasi-zonal
flow in the mid and upper levels as a shortwave pivots through the
region followed by weak lake effect snow behind it into the mid
week. As we move into the latter half of the week, a cut-off low
over the Pacific Northwest moves over the Northern Rockies and heads
towards the Upper Great Lakes, possibly even phasing with a low
lifting from the Colorado Rockies towards the Great Lakes region. At
this time, while significant lake effect is still not expected over
the course of this week, we could see a few inches more inches of
snow fall over Menominee County into Monday and possibly a few
inches more over the entire U.P. come late Wednesday through
Thursday. Additional forecast details follow in the rest of the
discussion.
The work week starts off with ongoing light snow Monday morning
courtesy of a stationary front directed from the Dakotas into the
Great Lakes. Additional light snow totals below an inch are looking
likely for most of the UP. However, with the model guidance showing
strong fgen and at least modest Q Divergence over the south
central/Menominee County late tonight through Monday morning, we
could see another 2 to 4 inches down there until noon CST. With the
HREF showing mean snowfall rates up to 1" per hour at times Monday
morning, will let the Winter Weather Advisory for Menominee County
stand given that this could be impactful to the Monday morning
commute (the heaviest snowfall is currently expected to fall around
then). Will note, though, that with some of the latest hi-res
guidance showing 6-hourly QPF upwards (and even in excess of) a
quarter-inch in Menominee county by noon, it isn`t out of the
question that we flirt with some warning-level snowfall amounts in
Menominee county - with a round a 30-40% chance of this occurring
per ensemble probabilities.
The system snowfall moves out of the U.P. by Monday afternoon as the
shortwave low continues to race towards the St. Lawrence Seaway.
Light lake effect snowfall picks up behind the shortwave late Monday
over the northwest wind snow belts. While medium range guidance is
hinting at some remnant troughing over the region, high pressure
ridging pushing in from the Canadian Prairies late Monday into
Wednesday will significantly limit lake effect snowfall totals, even
with delta-Ts ranging from the mid teens to around 20 C. Expect only
a couple of fluffy inches at most over the northwest wind snow belts
each day early this week thanks to the high pressure ridging. In
addition, expect the high temperatures to drop from around to above
normal Monday (20s to low 30s) to below normal Tuesday (mid teens to
low 20s). However, with winds being fairly light through Wednesday,
wind chills problems are not expected, even as lows drop down close
to zero in the interior west Monday and Tuesday nights.
Our attention then turns to a cut-off low lifting over the Northern
Rockies and through the Northern Plains by midweek as it heads
towards the Upper Great Lakes. As of now, it seems like the low
moving over the Northern Plains will begin phasing with a second
shortwave low lifting from the Colorado Rockies towards southern
Ontario just right before both lows reach the western Great Lakes.
This will allow for more liquid to reach Upper Michigan late
Wednesday into Thursday, with moisture from the Gulf being forced up
with some ascent caused by the right entrance region of a departing
jet streak and later the left exit region of an incoming jet streak
at 300 mb. While some of the moisture will be `wrung out` by the
more southerly shortwave low, this system would bring at least a few
inches of snowfall across the area late Wednesday through Thursday,
should the European solution hold fast. However, given that guidance
struggles significantly with phasing lows and this is a few days out
still, my confidence in this solution occurring is still rather low
at this time (but it is rising). Will note that the Euro remains the
outlier among the guidance for earlier phasing (basically right over
the Great Lakes) and a deeper low. Lake effect snow does look to
return behind this system over most likely the northwest wind snow
belts as delta-Ts drop into the upper teens to around 20 C; better
lake effect snowfall is expected late Thursday through Thursday
night as troughing remains across the region. However, ridging
possibly building in as early as Friday could weaken the lake effect
as we head into the weekend. We may see another system move through
sometime this weekend, but confidence in this occurring is very low,
with models flip-flopping on this tracking far northward enough to
impact the UP at all. Looking at the expected flow at the end of the
extended period and beyond, it does look like below normal
temperatures are expected to continue across the U.P. this upcoming
weekend into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 716 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
MVFR cigs will continue to linger into tonight at all TAF sites, but
drier air in the wake of a cold front should help them to improve to
VFR overnight. Cold advection, however, could be sufficient enough
to support snow shower re-development Monday morning. For now, will
cover possibility for snow and MVFR conditions under PROB30 groups.
Other impacts include post frontal westerly winds gusting up to 30
kts at CMX through Monday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 150 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
Winds generally out of the south to southeast this afternoon back to
the southwest, then eventually west this evening into tonight with a
passing cold front. Winds will generally be up to 20-30kts, but a
few gale force gusts to 35 knots are possible. As a weak shortwave
ridge builds over the region this evening, expect the winds to
progressively weaken to 20-25 knots from the northwest by Monday
morning. By late tonight, a stationary front is expected to set up
over the southern half of the U.P.. As this front leaves to the east
Monday afternoon, winds increase to around 20 to 30 knots Monday
evening through the night. Expect high pressure ridging building in
from the Canadian Prairies to weaken winds back down to around 20
knots or less Tuesday, and for the light winds to continue through
Wednesday as a low moving through the Northern Plains phases with a
low lifting from the Colorado Rockies over the Great Lakes region.
However, expect winds to pick up from the west and northwest to at
least 20 to 30 knots behind the now phased low Thursday; there is a
50 to 80% chance of gales to 34 knots across the lake Thursday and
Thursday evening according to the European ensemble.
In addition to the winds, some freezing spray is expected tonight to
Tuesday behind the Clipper low and stationary front. Freezing spray
could possibly return behind the phased low Thursday into Friday.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST
Monday for MIZ012.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Voss
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...LC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1004 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
Overall, there is fairly minimal change with the evening update.
Temperatures have been varied this evening based on the presence
(or absence) of wind. These values were still updated based on
the latest model guidance. Winds have persisted across the
majority of stations due to the MSLP gradient. This has led to a
slight increase in overnight lows and lesser confidence in morning
fog development, which is most likely around river valleys.
Otherwise, the forecast was kept largely the same.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
Key Messages:
1. Valley and river fog possible tonight and Monday morning.
2. Warm and mostly sunny for Monday.
Discussion:
The current pattern of surface high pressure to our east, low
pressure to our NW, and a nearly zonal flow aloft will remain fairly
steady-state through Monday. Fog is likely to form once again
tonight, although confidence in widespread dense fog is lower
than yesterday. The NAM and HRRR are pointing toward the central
Valley as the main area for fog development, and along area lakes
and rivers. Will follow this guidance as it did well last night.
However, there may be a little better pressure gradient tonight,
which could produce just enough mixing to limit fog development in
some spots. Monday will be pretty similar to today, just warmer
and likely more sunshine starting at daybreak; highs will be in
the 65 to 70 range across most of the TN Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
Key Messages:
1. Unseasonably warm next week, especially Tuesday through Thursday.
2. Rain chances return to the region for the second half of the
week.
3. Locally heavy rain is possible for Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday evening. Localized flooding possible.
Discussion:
For the majority of the extended period, upper-level flow will
exhibit a quasi-zonal pattern, interrupted at times by fast moving
shortwaves across the Tennesee and Ohio Valleys. Multiple jet
streaks will move across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys will produce
rounds of convection commencing from Wednesday and persisting
through Saturday.
Tuesday:
Predominantly dry conditions. A frontal boundary with limited
moisture will move into southwest Virginia by late Tuesday. There
exists a small chance of showers. Unseasonably warm temperatures
with highs some 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
Wednesday through Thursday evening:
Quasi-stationary frontal boundary will meander across southwest
Virginia and east Tennessee. A series of jet streaks traversing the
Ohio and Tennessee valleys will enhance frontogenetic forcing along
this boundary, resulting in intermittent showers and thunderstorms.
Ensemble CAPE values around 500 J/kg suggest the potential for
embedded thunderstorms.
Additionally, precipitable water values will rise to 1-2 standard
deviations above the seasonal normals, which increases the threat
for localized heavy rainfall associated with the thunderstorms.
Environment will also be conducive for favorable warm rain process
given the unseasonably mild temperatures and high freezing levels.
Given the orientation of the boundary and upper flow are
parallel, training of storms are possible enhancing the threat of
localized flash flooding.
However, NBM`s 24-hour probabilities for precipitation exceeding 1
inch remain at only 40-50% for southwest Virginia. Widespread
flooding still appears low at this time.
Friday:
A small break in convection is anticipated as the jet streak
migrates eastward. Forecast confidence regarding the timing of these
waves is low.
Saturday and Sunday:
Another jet streak is projected to intensify southerly
boundary layer flow, leading to an increased likelihood of
convection. Isentropic lift is expected especially on Saturday as a
warm front lifts north. A strong frontal boundary is expected to
move across next Sunday.
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures
Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
02-03 75(1986) 74(2020) 74(1989) 71(2020)
02-04 77(1927) 72(1986) 68(1986) 68(1992)
02-05 75(1890) 73(2008) 71(2008) 71(2019)
02-06 70(2019) 73(1986) 68(1991) 70(2008)
02-07 80(2019) 77(2019) 76(2019) 76(2019)
02-08 76(1937) 75(1937) 70(2001) 71(2009)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
Gusty winds will decrease overnight with some light winds likely
continuing at CHA and TRI. At TYS, however, there will be another
high probability of fog development by early Monday morning.
Reductions to IFR were maintained in the TAF, but LIFR or lower
conditions are definitely possible. If fog occurred at another
site, chances may be slightly higher at TRI, but TYS is the main
concern for fog. During the day on Monday, VFR conditions and a
breezy southerly wind can be expected.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 42 71 49 71 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 40 68 50 68 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 41 67 49 67 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 66 46 63 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...BW