Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/02/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
946 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
After quiet cold conditions overnight into morning, a quick
moving system will bring a period of light snow to much of the
area late Sunday afternoon through evening, perhaps ending with
patchy freezing drizzle Sunday night. Milder conditions Monday
will favor rain showers in parts of the area as another clipper
passes. Watching a bigger system for the middle of the week,
which may bring wintry mix or rain to the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
945 PM Update...
Narrow flurry streamers were drifting off a few of the Finger
Lakes earlier this evening but have almost completely come to an
end as high pressure continues to build. Rapid radiational
cooling is occurring under a crisp clear sky. A few spots are
already subzero, including 7 below in Woodgate of Oneida County.
However, with a calming wind we are still confident that both
temperatures and wind chills will stay above Cold Weather
Advisory criteria. Wispy thin cirrus is already encroaching,
and more of a high thin overcast will spread after midnight to
prevent a total dropoff of temperatures. In fact, temperatures
are likely to rise in the last few hours before dawn. Still,
lows of single digits above to single digits and lower teens
below zero, are probable. Coldest readings are expected east of
I-81, especially the I-88 to Oneida County areas.
Previous discussion...
Main concerns in the near term are the very cold temperatures
tonight, and a fast moving low that will bring snow and perhaps
some spotty freezing drizzle Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
As a 1038mb surface high moves overhead this evening winds will
quickly diminish, becoming light and variable overnight. The
latest 12z guidance is showing temperatures dropping very
quickly under clear skies, light winds and perfect radiational
cooling conditions. Therefore, blended in some of the raw 12z
ECMWF guidance to the official overnight low forecast. This puts
forecast lows between 0 and 15 below zero along and east of
I-81. Some high level clouds arrive after midnight for western
areas, which may halt the cooling there; giving lows between 0
and 10 above (including down in the Wyoming Valley of NE PA).
Confidence in how low locations ultimate fall tonight is lower
than usual, as will depend on a number of factors (winds, sky
cover and fresh snow cover). With the light and variable winds,
did not think wind chills would be too much of a factor
tonight...with that said temperatures and wind chills are very
close to cold weather advisory criteria, but confidence is just
not there. Did mention the cold temperatures in the HWO.
Sunday starts off with increasing clouds in the morning to early
afternoon. Then a fast moving clipper system spreads light to
moderate snow over the area by late afternoon and evening. Model
guidance is still trying to hone in on where the steadiest snow
will be with this weak system. The 18z HRRR, 12z 3km NAM and 15z
RAP seem to have all trended south with the moisture with this
system. Therefore, brought some higher PoPs down across all of
CNY and even into the northern tier of NE PA. QPF amounts are
light and range from 0.05 to 0.30 inches with this system.
Depending on how snow to liquid ratios work out, it seems much
of Central NY could see 1 to 3 inches of snow Sunday evening...with
less than 1 inch for NE PA. Locally higher amounts up to 4 inches
are possible for northern Oneida county, but confidence was not
high enough to issue any winter weather advisories at this
time. We will monitor QPF/Snow amounts trends closely with the
guidance coming in this evening and tonight to make a better
determination on if/where any advisories may be needed. There is
also a chance that the snow ends as some light freezing drizzle
or drizzle as soundings show the column losing moisture in the
snow growth/ice crystal zone. High temperatures on Sunday are
seasonably cool in the 20s to low 30s. Temperatures slowly rise
overnight, reaching the upper 20s to mid-30s before daybreak
Monday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 PM Update...
A since-past weak front overnight Sunday will help to bring some
warmer air into the area Monday, which will likely be the
warmest day of the week in the low to high 40s. An overhead
strong jetstreak will keep the atmosphere moving and quickly
bring in a weak wave from the west, which will likely result in
rain in the later afternoon, and transitioning to a mix of rain
and snow, then snow, going into the overnight Monday and Tuesday
morning hours. The wave will leave as quickly as it came, and
Tuesday will likely remain dry, but colder from the
aforementioned wave, resulting in temperatures in the high 20s
to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
250 PM Update...
After Wednesday, the forecast remains very uncertain. Depending
on the model you choose to look at, a developing system will
move across the area, and could bring widespread mixed
precipitation with freezing rain Wednesday night through
Thursday. The GFS has our area more on the cooler side of
things, which could result in chances for snowfall across most
of NY, and mixed precipitation across NE PA, whereas the ECMWF
has our area split in-between the 0C 850 mb isotherm, resulting
in a very uncertain mixed precipitation event. Additionally, the
GFS has been fluid with solutions every run, so confidence is
low all around. For now, a forecast of widespread mixed
precipitation for Wednesday night through Thursday will remain,
and we`ll continue to monitor fluctuations in model solutions
and trends for potential changes to the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions are anticipated for all terminals under high
pressure overnight through morning, other than a brief MVFR
lake effect flurry at KITH around to shortly after 00Z. High
thin clouds overspread all terminals late tonight through
morning; still at or above 10 kft through 18Z Sunday. A quickly
moving wave will spread lowering ceilings and light snow with
associated visibility restrictions towards the end of the TAF
period; late afternoon-early evening for all of the NY terminals.
There is some uncertainty if the snow will reach all the way to
KAVP by 00Z Monday. Winds light/variable overnight, then picking
up out of the southeast to south during the day with gusts
reaching mid teens-lower 20s knots.
Outlook...
Sunday night...Light snow wrapping up, though it may end with a
brief patchy light freezing rain-drizzle KBGM-KITH-KELM-KAVP.
Regardless, ceiling restrictions persist through the night for
most terminals.
Monday...After a lull Monday morning, another quick moving
system expected with mainly rain showers later Monday afternoon
through evening with associated restrictions.
Late Monday night through Tuesday night...Early cold front with
northwest winds causing lake effect snow showers/intermittent
restrictions for NY terminals up to Tuesday morning, then lake
effect clouds lingering but with improving conditions.
Wednesday through Thursday...Larger system moves in with
uncertainty for precipitation types, but restrictions are
likely especially Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A significant portion of the North Branch Susquehanna, Upper
Delaware and Finger Lakes drainages are frozen with temperatures
since mid-January supportive of thickening river ice.
Next week...temperatures will ride a roller-coaster of thawing
and freezing with the next minor thaw expected on Monday. There
still appears to be only limited energy for thermal weakening of
river ice and melting of snow and a continued low potential for
ice jam flooding.
Attention then turns to a low pressure system moving through
the Northeast on Thursday. This system has the potential to
usher in much milder air and higher dewpoints. In this scenario,
much of the area`s snow cover would likely be erased into
runoff. That combined with a decent rainfall is expected to
cause significant rises on area rivers resulting in at least a
moderate (50-60%) chance for ice jams and potential flooding.
The risk would be reduced should we continue to trend to a
cooler scenario. We need to keep a close eye on this.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM/MDP
NEAR TERM...MJM/MDP
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
859 PM MST Sat Feb 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong winds for mountains, foothills today into Sunday.
- Light to moderate snow in northern mountains today into Sunday
morning.
- Temperatures will be above seasonal normals Sunday through
Wednesday, then cool off for the later part of the week.
- A weak system will bring light snow to the mountains late
Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM MST Sat Feb 1 2025
While current wind conditions are a vast improvement over the near
90 mph gusts we were observing at this time last night, the main
focus of this update was once again primarily for wind concerns.
After a persistent increasing trend to hi-res guidance suggesting
the strong winds both increasing, and pushing farther down the
eastern slopes than previously expected, we went ahead and issued
a High Wind Watch for the Front Range Mountains, foothills, and
adjacent plains beginning late Sunday morning through late Sunday
night, where westerly winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts in excess of
75 mph in our most wind prone areas are expected. This includes
areas into far eastern Boulder and Jefferson Counties including
along Highway 93 from Boulder to Golden, and US36 from Boulder to
Lyons.
With any wind event like this there are some elevated concerns
with regards to fire weather. With relative humidities expected to
remain above critical thresholds and sporadic snow cover remaining
across areas where winds are expected to be strongest, we are not
expecting critical fire weather conditions to develop during this
event. However, it is always wise to practice fire safety when
strong winds are at play!
Aside from the updates to the winds on this package, no
significant adjustments were needed and the current forecast
remains on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 154 PM MST Sat Feb 1 2025
High country moisture is slightly shallower currently with a bit
of a lull in precipitation, although light orographic snow showers
are still hanging on across the higher mountain elevations. A
second wave of moisture is evident upstream into Wyoming and
Idaho, and will gradually make its way into the high country this
evening and overnight, along with increasing flow at mid-levels.
This will sustain slick conditions for passes in our northern
mountains through tomorrow morning with fairly steady snow,
although the bulk of the guidance shows a considerable decrease in
moisture by the afternoon. Thus, we`ve trimmed the Winter Weather
Advisories to end at Noon Sunday, when all but the highest
mountain peaks should be largely dry. We`ll also have continued
warm advection, pushing temperatures above freezing in the high
valleys which should help melt snow off any lower elevation roads.
Speaking of the enhanced westerly flow aloft, ridgetop winds are
progged to strengthen to between 65-75 kts near sunrise on Sunday,
which is rather eye-popping. Combined will a noticeable reduction
in upstream moisture in the afternoon, these two factors could
promote downwind mountain wave amplification, with stronger winds
spreading into the foothills. However, soundings don`t show too
prolific of a stable layer, and the jet will be lifting a fair
bit northward through the latter half of the day. Surface pressure
gradients also don`t look overly impressive. Hi- res guidance
seems unsure of how to handle this mix of ingredients, with fairly
substantial differences in modeled wind strength - the HRRR seems
intent in generating gusts of 80-85 mph for much of the foothills
and immediately adjacent lower elevations Sunday afternoon, but
the NAM wants nothing of the sort. Contemplated a short duration
High Wind Watch on this shift, but would like to see just a little
more consistency in order to pull the trigger. Will thus allow
future shifts to determine any headline needs depending on how
things trend.
Wind and light mountain snow aside, we`ll see a milder day across
the board tomorrow with 700mb temperatures climbing by 3-4C. Most
areas of the plains should therefore be able to warm well into the
60`s, except parts of the Palmer Divide and into Lincoln County
where snow cover remains robust enough to keep them in the 50`s.
&&
.LONG TERM /Sunday night through Saturday/...
Issued at 154 PM MST Sat Feb 1 2025
The jet stream moves north on Monday and a ridge with well above
normal temperatures aloft will move over Colorado. Models have
increased the 700 mb temperatures to as high as 9 C over the I-25
corridor. The only thing that may stop a good portion of our
forecast area from nearing or setting record daily highs, is the
chance that a shallow backdoor cold front will move into the
northeast plains. Some model solutions have the front keeping
temperatures in the low 60s across much of the I-25 corridor and
in the 40s over the far northeast plains by the Nebraska border.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF ensembles have a 25th percentile of 71 F at
KDEN while the ECMWF ensemble MOS has a mean of 69 F. The forecast
was moved to the ECMWF ensemble MOS data to show 69 F in Denver
and 45 F in Julesburg.
On Tuesday, the setup aloft will be similar with ridging along with
southwesterly flow over Colorado. There is strong lee cyclogenesis
across the northeast plains of Colorado and this cyclogenesis
will develop moderate easterly winds across the plains during the
morning hours. This will likely keep the shallow cold air in place
over the plains to the east of KDEN. Highs were lowered to the
upper 30s in Sedgwick and Phillips Counties and to the 40s in
Akron and Sterling. By the afternoon, southerly winds appear that
they will likely develop over the I-25 corridor. This should allow
for good mixing and warming to occur under sunny skies.
Therefore, the forecast highs were adjusted to the low to mid 60s
across the Denver metro.
Model guidance has shown the shortwave trough that moves towards the
forecast area on Wednesday to be weaker and farther north than
yesterday`s runs. The GFS and Canadian ensembles have decreased the
amount of members that have snow in our mountains. The ECMWF
ensembles have most members showing snow in our mountains so the
likely PoPs were held in the forecast. Snow amounts will likely be
light for this system. Across the plains, there is a very low chance
that a band or two of precipitation persists long enough to
produce measurable precipitation amounts. Therefore, PoPs were
kept very low on the plains.
Thursday and into next weekend, the zonal jet stream will be
focused directly over Colorado. This will stream moisture into our
mountains with the plains remaining mostly dry. The western
slopes will likely see light to moderate snowfall amounts.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday/...
Issued at 435 PM MST Sat Feb 1 2025
VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds are expected to
transition to the SE by ~1/2Z at all TAF sites. Hi-res guidance
suggests a more SSE component than typical diurnal winds
overnight for KDEN/KAPA, and more S for KBJC. Expecting a similar
pattern as today`s winds for tomorrow, with winds shifting back
to the ESE by late morning/early afternoon at KDEN/KAPA. However,
with enough heating, winds could make a WNW turn at KDEN in the
afternoon (20% chance). With another mountain wave expected to
develop tomorrow afternoon, KBJC is expected to have gusty
westerlies beginning late morning and increasing in the afternoon
to 30-35kts. Some of the westerlies may make their way into KAPA,
but magnitude will be in the 20-25kt range.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MST Sunday for COZ031-033.
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
for COZ033>036-039.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Bonner
SHORT TERM...Rodriguez
LONG TERM...Danielson
AVIATION...Bonner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
944 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 730 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
- Patchy fog forecast Sunday morning and patchy to areas of dense
fog forecast Monday morning
- Mostly dry conditions expected through next week
- Confidence increasing in above normal temperatures through the
first full week of February
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
Local radar imagery shows dry conditions over east central
Florida. GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics and Day Cloud Phase
satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies with low stratus over
Brevard and Osceola counties, as well as to the south over east
central Florida with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies to the
north. A stationary boundary is situated over the far southern
portions of east central Florida. PWAT values are in the 1-1.5"
range in the vicinity of the stationary boundary over and to the
south of Brevard and Osceola counties. Winds are generally from
the north-northeast at 5-10mph.
Mostly dry weather is expected overnight with isolated showers
(PoPs ~20%) and/or drizzle forecast over the local Atlantic waters
and over Brevard county. Low temperatures in the low to upper 50s
are expected north of I-4 with the mid 50s to mid 60s expected to
the south under mostly cloudy skies. Patchy fog is forecast
Sunday morning between 3AM and 9AM (mainly along and north of I-4,
in addition to across the Treasure Coast to Okeechobee county).
The potential (20%) exists for reduced visibility to one mile or
less due to fog. Slow down, increase your distance, and use your
low beam headlights if you encounter fog.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
Currently...Pretty dreary across much of East Central Florida as
skies remain mostly overcast behind this morning`s weak cold
front. Upper level support for the front has long since push east
and offshore, and the boundary is running out of steam as it
slowly sags into Lake Okeechobee and Treasure Coast regions, who
were able to enjoy some sunnier skies before the clouds moved in.
Northern counties have started to break out of cloud cover, and
will enjoy a sunnier afternoon and evening. There might be a few
light sprinkles along the boundary, but they`re nearly
indiscernible from noise on the KMLB radar, and otherwise dry
conditions prevail.
Rest of Today-Tonight...The frontal boundary is expected to stall
near or south of Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast by the
evening, then begin the meander north and south a bit. Between
cloud cover and some very modest cooler air behind he front,
afternoon highs top out in the U60s-M70s for most of the area.
Where folks did get sunlight, around Lake O and the Treasure
Coast, highs make it to the U70s-L80s. Winds veering most of the
way around the compass to northeast at 5-10 mph behind the front
today become light tonight. Though the frontal boundary will lose
gradually lose definition, associated moisture will linger across
the area, continuing to produce cloudy skies and bringing those
skies further south. Some clearing across the north is expected
tonight, which could open a window for some patchy fog to develop,
but clouds look to move back in by early morning, limiting the
potential for dense fog. Patchy fog will also be possible down
south near the stationary front, where there`s better chances for
fog to become wider spread and locally dense. In addition, HRRR
has been showing some sea fog developing along the Treasure and
southern Brevard coasts later in the morning Sunday in light
onshore flow near the residual frontal boundary, but not biting on
it just yet. A few light showers may develop overnight as
moisture lifts north, but chances are fairly low at just 10-20
pct. Overnight lows range from the L50s north of I-4 to the M60s
near Stuart.
Sun-Sun Night...(Modified Previous Discussion) Former weak
frontal boundary still meanders across the south-central FL
peninsula with modest moisture (~ 1.50-1.60" PWATs) - highest
southward from Melbourne. Zonal flow aloft continues but without
any discernible mid-level impulses. ERLY surface winds dominate
with speeds up to 10 mph. Considerable cloudiness continues across
much of the area. Not enough confidence to add mention of any
light rain so keep PoPs at 10pct or less for now and continue to
monitor. We do keep a small PoP for a portion of the local coastal
waters. Will also need to monitor potential for sea fog along the
southern coast from Sunday morning through the day, and
possibility of additional fog development inland Sunday night into
Monday morning. Highs in the L70s for coastal Volusia and M-U70s
most everywhere else, except some L80s within reach for southern
Osceola, Okeechobee, and interior portions of the Treasure Coast.
Mon-Sat...(Modified Previous Discussion) The hardly discernible
boundary remains draped east-west across the south-central
peninsula into early next week as moisture with this feature still
remains hard to scour out, with only weak high pressure across the
region. Again, while not explicitly in the forecast - there could
be some light rain chances, but confidence still does not permit
inclusion at this time. Aloft, mid-level ridging gradually builds
northward from the FL Straits through the extended keeping troughs
and energy well north of central FL. Weak surface high pressure
continues across the region, with any future or notable frontal
passages remaining out of discussion. For now continue to keep
conditions mostly dry. A warming trend remains on track with
temperatures remaining well above normal thru next week. M-U70s at
the immediate coast each day with near 80F to L80s west of I-95
and some days could approach M80s for a chosen few across the
interior. The pressure gradient remains weak with light onshore
flow developing at the coast each afternoon and a likely offshore
flow or drainage wind each night across ECFL.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
Rest of Today-Tonight...Maybe a little choppy well offshore in
the Gulf Stream, but otherwise favorable boating conditions.
Today`s weak cold front is forecast to stall over or just south of
the Treasure Coast Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient loosens
as the boundary loses definition and weak high pressure sets up
across the Southeastern US, shifting winds from Nrly this
afternoon to onshore by morning at 5-10 kts. Seas 2-3 ft, up to 4
ft in the Gulf Stream. Isolated showers possible tonight into
Sunday.
Sun-Wed...(Previous Discussion) Barely discernible former front
across the south-central peninsula may still promote a sprinkle or
brief light shower across the local waters Sun/Mon. The pressure
gradient remains loose with weak high pressure across the region.
Wind speeds mostly under 10 kts at least into early Wed, with
light onshore winds developing during the day, reverting back to
light offshore each evening and overnight. Seas continue mainly
2-3 ft, but could see occasional 4 ft seas well offshore Cape
northward.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 730 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
TAFs begin with primarily VFR conditions (except for KSUA). At least
MVFR CIGs are forecast through much of the TAF period into SUN
with a stationary boundary expected over southern ECFL. IFR CIGs/VIS
are forecast after 8-10Z and mainly before 13Z at KMLB/KVRB/KFPR/KSUA.
The potential exists for IFR CIGs at times at KTIX/KMCO/KISM SUN AM.
Light & variable winds are expected to become E into SAT PM at 5-10kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 55 74 58 76 / 10 10 0 0
MCO 59 78 63 81 / 10 10 10 0
MLB 61 76 61 77 / 20 20 10 10
VRB 63 80 63 79 / 10 20 10 10
LEE 56 77 61 80 / 10 10 0 0
SFB 57 77 60 80 / 10 10 0 0
ORL 58 77 62 81 / 10 10 10 0
FPR 63 79 62 79 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fehling
AVIATION...Fehling
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
943 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will settle southwestward and across central
NC tonight. Strong, continental polar high pressure will build in
from the north and northeast through Sunday. The high will push
offshore early Monday, initiating a southwest flow that will bring
milder weather late Monday into Tuesday. Another backdoor cold front
will drop in from the north Tuesday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 943 PM Saturday...
A back-door cold front will continue to ooze across central NC from
the NE. Along it`s leading edge, scattered to broken low clouds will
fill in from the NE. A brief period of NELY gustiness is also
occurring immediately behind the fropa, gusting between 15 and 20
mph at times. As the night wears on, increasing moist southerly flow
of 20-25 kts atop the shallow stable layer, maximized across western
NC, will reinforce low-level saturation and clouds. The saturation
will be too shallow for rain, but some areas of drizzle could
develop across the far NW Piedmont towards sunrise. Given sfc temps
in the mid 30s and not enough liquid equivalent to wet-bulb
temperatures to freezing, freezing drizzle is not a concern. Lows
will range from around freezing northern coastal plain to upper
30s/near 40 south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Saturday...
The risk for areas of drizzle and light rain will extend through Sun
morning, primarily over the W Piedmont, and plentiful cloud cover
should hold highs down a bit overall.
The mid level flow will remain fairly flat Sun/Sun night, except for
passage of a very low-amplitude perturbation through the Eastern
CONUS late Sun. A cool surface high wedging into central NC from the
NNE topped with veering flow with height extending up through 800 mb
(~5500 ft AGL, a function of the 850 mb anticyclone shifting
overhead and into E NC) will result in fairly deep and strong moist
upglide extending into at least early Sun afternoon. Latest high res
models and ensemble systems depict very little to no precip amounts,
not unexpected given that the dry and stable air above 800 mb will
mean a lack of ice in the clouds and thus small hydrometeors. But
the upglide does appear to be robust enough to generate areas of
drizzle, which may be heavy at times, necessitating keeping a pop in
the NW Sun morning. Partial thicknesses and RAP forecast wet bulb
profiles would suggest that there is a non-zero threat of a little
light freezing rain at onset near and NW of INT, however given the
extent of the warm nose just aloft, the risk appears too low to
mention, and would be inconsequential even if it did occur,
extremely light and fleeting and not accruing on the ground. Once
the 850 mb anticyclone pushes well off the NC shore by afternoon,
the moist upglide will weaken, facilitated by the progressive nature
of the surface high as its center tracks swiftly ENE over the
Canadian Maritimes. But by late in the day and into Sun night,
despite the slowly weakening influence of the departing surface
ridge, the cooler air over the warmer water will instigate inverted
trough development near the coast, which will in turn cause a
resurgence in upglide over the Coastal Plain from S to N and keeping
considerable clouds over the E CWA well into the night. The end
result of this weak but messy and chaotic pattern will be overcast
skies mainly over the Piedmont and W Sandhills well into the
afternoon, with partial sunshine in the SE, followed by a few breaks
in the clouds in the west while the east trends cloudy later in the
day and into Sun night.
Statistical guidance has trended cooler for Sun highs with each run,
reasonable given the expectation of widespread and fairly thick
(2500-3500 ft) clouds and only partial sunshine for a portion of the
day at any given location. Have nudged highs down a bit further, to
range from the mid 40s NW to low 50s SE. Expect lows Sun night in
the mid 30s to lower 40s. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 PM Saturday...
* Unseasonably warm weather expected through the end of the week.
Monday and Tuesday: Aloft, nearly zonal to wnwly flow will prevail,
becoming more nwly Mon night/Tue as a s/w trough quickly tracks
across the region. At the surface, high pressure will gradually
shift out of the area Mon. A trough will amplify over the area Mon
night as an area of low pressure tracks ewd through the Northeast
US. The attendant cold front will subsequently progress sewd then
swd toward central NC on Tue, pushing the trough out of the area in
the process. The front should eventually move into central NC in a
backdoor fashion Tue night as strong high pressure moves across the
Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Well above normal temperatures
are expected, with highs increasing from mid/upper 60s Mon to upper
60s/mid 70s Tue. Expect lows to decrease from mid to upper 40s Mon
night to low/mid 40s Tue night, lowest ne. The weather should remain
dry Mon and Tue.
Wednesday onward: A bit more variability and uncertainty in the
forecast the second half of the week. At the surface, the cold front
draped across central NC on Wed should retreat nwd as a warm front
Wed night/Thu, with perhaps a bid of lingering ridging in the NW
into early Thu. A cold front will approach from the NW on Thu, but
timing of fropa across central NC varies between the medium-range
guidance. Aloft, a s/w (expected to move onshore of the cntl Pacific
coast on Tue) should move off the Rockies on Wed, then progress ewd
(GFS) or newd (EC) across the Plains and MS Valley Wed night. The
track of the disturbance will impact the forecast for rain over
central NC Wed-Fri and with the current uncertainty, forecast
confidence remains low at this time. Expect better model agreement
after the s/w moves onshore Tue. For now, there is a chance for
rain, especially along the NC/VA border, late Wed into Wed night,
with chances spreading sewd Thu and Fri. The well above normal
temperatures will continue, peaking Thu/Thu night, with highs in the
low 70s north to mid/upper 70s SE and lows in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /2330Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 PM Saturday...
A backdoor cold front from south-central VA into eastern NC will
continue to move southwest across central NC through 06z. Wind gusts
are expected to increase to around 15 kts behind the front, but
infrequent gusts of 25 kts may be possible for an hour or two
immediately behind the fropa. Cig 5,000 to 7,000 ft will gradually
lower areawide with nocturnal cooling, lowest over the Triad
terminals (KINT/KGSO). Confidence is low on how low the cigs will
drop towards daybreak in the Triad which may drop below 1,000 ft.
Some gradual improvement is expected through the afternoon with the
last to lift in the Triad. MVFR cigs along the Carolina coast may
lift towards FAY/RWI during the afternoon and evening with some
patchy light rain, but confidence is low at this time.
Outlook: There will be chance for some fog/stratus at FAY/RWI Sun
night into Mon morning. A frontal system could impact the terminals
Thu but guidance is too uncertain at this stage for any appreciable
aviation impacts.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
February 4:
KGSO: 73/1991
KRDU: 76/1957
February 6:
KGSO: 74/1927
KRDU: 77/2019
KFAY: 82/1927
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
February 6:
KGSO: 60/2008
KRDU: 61/2008
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kren/GIH
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM..KCP
AVIATION...Swiggett/Kren
CLIMATE...RAH