Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 02/01/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
940 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow transitions
to all snow tonight into early Saturday morning with some light
to moderate accumulations expected from the Capital Region and
Berkshires north and west. High pressure builds in with cold and
mainly dry weather to open the weekend. The next clipper low
and its warm front brings snow for late Sunday through Sunday
night, as a cold front moves through on Monday with scattered
rain and snow showers.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:
- Winter Weather Advisories continue for 3 to 6 inches of snow
for the Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys, Greater Capital
District, Lake George Saratoga Region, all of Washington
County, northern Berkshires and all of southern Vermont until
4 am EST.
Discussion:
.UPDATE...Main change with this update was to expand the Winter
Weather to include N. Warren and N. Washington Counties based on
snowfall reports and radar trends indicating snow continuing
into the overnight hours. Increased accumulations to 3-6" in the
expanded advisory area. Otherwise the forecast generally looks
on track. Radar/satellite imagery showing a dry slot impinging
on the southern half of the area late this evening. This will
allow for decreasing precip rates/coverage. However, as the
surface wave (centered over SE NY south of Albany) shifts
south/east, additional light snow should re-develop north/west
of the wave after midnight, so forecast snow totals still may
be realized across much of the advisory area. The snow is
expected to taper off by early Sat morning as the system moves
offshore.
.PREV DISCUSSION[0701]...Based on observations and webcams
(DOT/Thruway/NYS Mesonet), rain has changed to snow across much
of the Capital District and points north, with rain or a light
wintry mix falling south of Albany this evening. Roads quickly
becoming snow covered and slippery due to wet snow falling and
temperatures at or just below freezing from around the Capital
District north. A few pockets of sleet and/or freezing rain may
occur in some areas near freezing south of Albany this evening.
A Special Weather Statement is in effect for this area. Overall,
the going forecast is in good shape with only minor adjustments
for this update.
Complex forecast into tonight with strong mid and upper level
confluent flow over NY and New England. A warm front reached the
Capital Region and southern VT associated with a wave of low
pressure approaching from Ohio and western PA. Precipitation has
held as mainly snow, some sleet and freezing rain north and
west of the Capital District. We have received reports of ice in
the west-central Mohawk Valley, where temps are still in the
upper 20s to around 30F. The shallow, cold air has been
difficult to erode there. The ice is one reason we extended the
advisory.
The next issue is the front beginning to sag southward with the
wave approaching. A sharp contrast in the snow and mixed line
will occur. The latest 3-km HRRR and NAMnest show a transition
to snow for the Capital District including Albany around 6-7 pm.
The wave and enhanced FGEN will have favorable upper level
dynamics in place with the latest HREFS showing eastern NY near
the left front quadrant of an H500 jet streak of 75-100 KT.
Strong upward vertical motion will tap into the DGZ for
enhanced snowfall rates of 0.50-1.0"/hr prior to midnight. The
axis of moderate snow is tricky with the 3-km HRRR a tad further
north than than 3-km NAM nest. Despite this difference 2-3" is
likely over the southern Dacks and the northern reaches of Lake
George and 2-6" further south into the Capital Region/Mohawk
Valley, northern Taconics, and southern VT. The highest totals
will be near the southern Greens of 3-6". The Capital Region is
close to 2-4". The probabilities for 4" or more of snow in the
advisory were low in the 15-30% range with the NBM.
The snow continues after midnight and spreads south and east
across the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Taconics,
Berkshires and NW CT as the sfc low moves across southern New
England. The mid and upper level deformation zone to the system
will continue impact the region into the early to mid morning
with additional light snow. Strong cold advection will occur
across the region with lows in the teens to lower to mid 20s and
single digits over the southern Dacks. Winds will increase from
the northwest to north at 10-15 mph with some gusts 20-25 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
- High confidence in very cold temperatures Saturday
night/early Sunday, but with little wind.
- Low to moderate confidence in potential moderate snowfall
amounts (>3") across SW Adirondacks late Sunday into Sunday
night.
Discussion:
Saturday morning scattered snow showers and flurries will
continue across portions of the western New England higher
terrain and the Capital Region. Some hints of Mohawk Hudson
Convergence (MHC) may occur over the Capital District into the
northern Taconics. The northerly flow down the upper Hudson
River Valley intercepts northwest channeled flow down the Mohawk
Valley. A residual moist axis remain at the juncture of the
valleys. The sfc wave is pulling east of Cape Cod. CSTAR
research documents MHC and some locations could get a dusting to
an inch. We kept some snow showers in prior to noon around. It
will be a cold and brisk day with clearing skies in the late
morning and afternoon. Highs will only be in the teens and 20s
with a few single digits over the Adirondack Park and southern
Greens and a few 30F readings near KPOU.
Sfc high pressure builds in over the region Saturday night.
Ideal radiational cooling conditions will be in place with clear
skies and light to calm winds and some new snow cover. Low will
range from zero to 10 below north of I-90 and the Tri Cities (a
few colder readings over the Adirondack Park) and single digits
to the south of the Tri Cities. A nearly calm wind will keep
wind chills or "Feels- like" temperatures close to the actual
air temps and flirt close to advisory levels in parts of the
Adirondack Park.
Sunday starts out dry but mid and high clouds will increase
ahead the next clipper low and its warm front. The low-level
warm advection will increase in the afternoon. The isentropic
lift increases from the the Capital Region north and west based
the deterministic and ensemble guidance especially west of I-87.
A couple inches of snow prior to dark are possible there. The
snow spreads east/southeast Sunday night with a broad 1-3"
inch snow north of the mid Hudson Valley, but 3-6" may be
possible over the southwest Adirondacks. We will keep mention in
the HWO. The latest NBM probabilities for >3" of snow is 40-60%
for the 24-hr period 18Z SUN to 18Z MON. The snow will taper
towards daybreak to flurries or even light showers with rising
temps overnight. Highs Sunday will be mainly in the 20s with
some teens over the Adirondacks. Lows will be in the teens and
20s and be rising into the mid 20s to lower to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:
- Generally dry weather Monday through about Tuesday night.
- Next chance for snow and mixed precipitation changing to rain
Wednesday through Thursday.
- Potential lingering snow showers into Friday
Discussion:
Upper energy exits Monday with the onset of cold advection and
associated low level forcing later Monday afternoon. Just a chance
for rain showers and snow showers into Monday evening. Highs Monday
before the cold air spreads into the region, in the 40s with mid to
upper 30s southern Adirondacks.
Dry weather and flat upper ridging building into the region Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 30s with near
40 mid Hudson Valley and 20s higher elevations.
Strong northern stream upper energy affects our region and interacts
with some southern stream moisture with increasing warm advection
and isentropic lift Wednesday and Wednesday night. Snow Wednesday
could transition to mixed precipitation with a chance for freezing
rain Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Then, mostly rain
Thursday until the system exits Thursday night into Friday. Cold
advection spreading across the region Thursday night into Friday
with some lake effect snow shower activity possible.
Highs Wednesday in the lower to mid 30s with 20s higher elevations.
Highs Thursday in the 40s with near 50 mid Hudson valley and NW CT
and around 40 to lower 40s higher terrain. Highs Friday in the mid
30s to lower 40s with upper 20s southern Adirondacks and southern
Green Mountains.
-------------------
On this last day of my career, as I retire, thanks to everyone I
have worked with in the NWS and outside the NWS over the last 34+
years. It has been a blessing, honor and privilege to learn from
everyone and earn a living doing what I enjoy, helping people
protect themselves from dangerous weather impacts. All my
colleagues across the NWS always tirelessly come to the office,
sometimes in adverse weather conditions, to constantly produce the
most accurate weather information possible.
As a lifelong learner, the atmosphere is always teaching me new
things and will always fascinate me with its awe inspiring
complexity and beauty. The NWS is in good hands with all my work
friends across the agency, an extremely dedicated work force, that
despite the challenges of the extremely complex atmosphere, continue
to improve the forecasts, warnings and communication.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z Sunday...Widespread precipitation continues across
the TAF sites through this evening, then slowly tapering off
late tonight as low pressure shifts eastward away from the
area. The first 6 hours will feature IFR/LIFR conditions at all
TAF sites. While snow will fall at KALB/KGFL, rain will occur at
KPOU and a rain/snow mix at KPSF changing to all snow by around
02z. IFR conditions could still persist after 06z for an hour
or two, but overall improvement to MVFR is expected between
06z-08z. High pressure building east across the Great Lakes will
result in decreasing clouds with conditions improving to VFR on
Saturday. Winds will be north-northwest around 5-10 tonight,
increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SN.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for NYZ038>043-
047>054-082>084.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for MAZ001.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...JPV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
828 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild weekend with highs well into the 60s both Saturday and
Sunday and no precipitation forecast.
- Significant arctic air building up north will play a role in a
challenging temperature forecast next week.
- Monday highs showing a 25-75th percentile difference of as
much as 20 degrees (degF) with latest 50th percentile in the
mid 60s for Dodge City (colder north, warmer south).
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
This evenings update will focus on the increasing fire risk
Saturday due to low humidity and breezy conditions in a few
areas of extreme southwest Kansas.
Models this evening remain in good agreement that a surface
trough of low pressure will deepen overnight across eastern
Colorado as westerly downslope flow strengthens ahead of an
upper level trough approaching the northern Rockies. In
addition, a 30-40 knot low level jet is expected to develop
tonight, leading to increasing surface winds early Saturday as
these stronger winds mix down to the surface.
On Saturday, the Colorado surface trough will move into western
Kansas, and a weak cold front will then drop south across
western Kansas during the afternoon as the upper level trough
crosses the Rockies and moves into the Northern Plains. As a
result, the gusty winds early in the day will subside during
the afternoon to 15 mph or less by late day, while warm and dry
conditions spread across western Kansas. Based on humidity
values bottoming out around 15% during the afternoon and
decreasing winds it appears that there will be a chance (30-50%)
of elevated fire weather conditions across a few areas of
extreme southwest Kansas (west of a Liberal to Sublette line)
for a few hours late day. In this area fires can escape control
more easily so be sure to practice fire safety.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
This afternoon`s water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showed a flat
ridge of high pressure in the mid-upper troposphere moving east
across the Rockies and adjacent Central and Northern Plains. An
expansive region of high cloud was moving east across the western
CONUS, and much of this will overspread our southwest Kansas region
later tonight into Saturday.
The weekend weather will be quite tranquil with highs well into the
60s as the favorable downslope pattern will prevail across the High
Plains. After a period of breezy southwest winds early Saturday, a
leeside trough will move out across far western Kansas into central
Nebraska, leading to a weakening of surface wind. A fast-moving, low-
amplitude shortwave trough will push across the Northern Plains and
Midwest through Saturday Night, but this will have essentially no
impact on southwest Kansas weather through the weekend.
Heading into next week, the forecast becomes increasingly
challenging as an arctic air mass builds across the Northern High
Plains, which will eventually ooze south. Latest indications are the
arctic air mass will begin to accelerate southward late Sunday Night
across the Northern High Plains and push quickly south given the
intense temperature difference between the two air masses (-20C
850mb T at Miles City, MT vs. +20C 850mb T near Goodland, KS valid
12Z Monday morning). This will no doubt lead to a significant
density current which lower resolution long term models struggle
with on the High Plains. Our official (following latest NBM) high
temperature for Monday is 66 degrees, however latest 100-member
Grand Ensemble shows a 25-75th percentile delta-T of 15 to 20F,
meaning there is a very large spread among the 100 members of the
Grand Ensemble (comprising of GEFS, ECMWF-EPS, and Canadian GEPS).
Thus temperature forecasting beginning Monday and last through much
of the week will be a significant challenge, which is not all that
uncommon heading into early February.
From a precipitation standpoint, probability of any accumulating
precipitation is near zero for all of next week as the jet stream
remains north of southwest Kansas with a high zonal index.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
Light winds this evening will shift to the southeast at 10 to
15 knots by 06Z as surface pressures fall along the lee of the
Rockies. Between 06Z and 09Z a 40 to 50 knot low level jet will
develop across southwest Kansas resulting in a period of low
level wind shear at all four TAF sites. Between 15 and 18z
Saturday these stronger winds just above the surface will mix
down, increasing the surface southerly winds to around 20 knots,
with gusts exceeding 35 knots at times through the afternoon.
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burgert
DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
508 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will prevail for the next week...with
the warmest day of the forecast period coming up on Sunday.
- The next significant weather-maker across central Illinois will
not arrive until the middle of next week...triggering a low
probability (20% chance) for thunderstorms Wednesday into early
Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
19z/1pm surface analysis shows a 1003mb low over northwest Indiana
with an associated cold front arcing southward to the Gulf Coast.
Meanwhile a trailing trough axis extends westward from the low across
north-central Illinois into southern Iowa. A band of light rain
associated with the trough persists along/northwest of a
Rushville to Bloomington line. This band had been nearly
stationary earlier today, but now as the system begins to depart,
it is advancing steadily eastward as the CAMs had suggested. Based
on radar trends, will carry PoPs across the entire KILX CWA this
afternoon...with the highest PoPs (60-100%) focused along/north of
I-72 where up to one tenth of an inch of additional rainfall is
expected before the showers depart into Indiana after 01z/7pm.
One of the main short-term forecast challenges will be timing the
clearing trend tonight into Saturday morning. Latest satellite
imagery shows the back edge of the cloud shield along a Rockford
to Ottumwa line and dropping southward. Boundary layer flow will
initially become northerly after passage of the trough axis,
supporting the continued southward clearing trend across at least
the western half of the CWA this evening. However, the flow will
gradually veer to NE...which will likely result in the clearing
trend grinding to a halt. HRRR is quite bullish in suggesting the
clouds will hold firm along/east of I-57 through the entire night
and this seems reasonable given the projected flow. Lingering
cloud cover across the east will at least partially clear during
the day Saturday...resulting in partly to mostly sunny conditions
across the board with afternoon high temperatures in the lower to
middle 40s.
The next short-term challenge will arise Saturday night as
boundary layer flow veers southerly and a warmer/moister airmass
flows back northward over the cold/frozen ground. NAM forecast
soundings show a saturated layer developing beneath a strong
subsidence inversion at 900mb. Despite only very weak lift in the
moist layer, the 12km NAM is generating splotchy QPF...suggestive
of fog/drizzle development. An early look at the RAP/HRRR visby
forecast shows a clear signal for lowered visbys through the night
and perhaps lingering into Sunday morning. Have therefore added
patchy fog/drizzle to the forecast.
Barnes
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 211 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
Fog/drizzle may persist across at least the eastern half of the
KILX CWA into Sunday morning, with partly to mostly cloudy
conditions expected for the remainder of the day. While cloud
cover may limit the warm-up to some extent, brisk southwesterly
winds will boost afternoon highs into the middle to upper 50s.
Another very warm day with highs well into the 50s will be on tap
for Monday before a cold front drops southward and stalls over the
Ohio River Valley by Tuesday.
A flat west-to-east zonal flow pattern will be in place across the
CONUS next week. As a short-wave trough tracks out of the Plains
and interacts with the stationary boundary, the next chance for
widespread precipitation will develop across central Illinois late
Tuesday night through Thursday. While the exact location of the
baroclinic zone is still in question, confidence is high that the
atmosphere will be warm enough to support all rain. In fact, the
Colorado State Machine Learning algorithm is even highlighting
much of central and southern Illinois with a 15-30% chance for
severe thunderstorms on Wednesday! With the 12z GFS indicating
MUCAPE values in the 800-1200J/kg range by Wednesday evening, this
will definitely be something to keep an eye on over the next few
days.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025
Rain will diminish over the central IL terminals over the next
couple hours as drier air works in on brisk north winds. The
clearing line stretched from KMQB-KPIA-KMDW at 23z and is
progressing south. Based on this trajectory, KBMI- KSPI will
clear out between 02-03z. Towards 06z winds veer northeast and
this will bring a slowing trend to the clearing, likely leaving
KCMI in MVFR ceilings overnight, with KDEC very near the clearing
line. Thus a lower confidence ceiling forecast here. Guidance
diverges on clearing trends for Saturday morning. With winds
continuing to veer southeast, some potential for MVFR ceilings to
spread back northwest, though majority of guidance favors mainly
clear skies locally so have trended the forecast in this
direction.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
247 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2025
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Afternoon satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover across
the area as our multi-day atmospheric river event is now
underway. For the higher elevations of the central mountains and
east/southeast highlands, not much has changed with the forecast
and Winter Storm Warnings remain in place with snowfall totals in
the warned areas likely to be quite high (6-18 inches, locally
higher at the highest peaks) between now and Sunday AM. See the
Winter Weather headlines for specifics. The biggest challenge in
the short term is for snowfall (and amounts) across the Magic
Valley and Snake Plain. Areas around Pocatello are currently
downsloping with temperatures in the lower 40s this afternoon. The
HRRR seems to have the best handle on the current downsloping in
the Magic Valley and lower Snake Plain. That being said, model
soundings suggest that as the initial onset of precip falls into
drier low-level air, we should see some wet-bulbing in the valleys
allowing temps to drop back closer to the freezing mark by later
this evening and throughout much of the overnight. Just how much
though is the biggest question mark and we`re basically at the
point where we just need to now-cast based on trends and
observations. All that being said, valley snowfall amounts have
trended down a bit from the previous forecast but still show some
accumulation across all of the Snake Plain, Arco Desert and Magic
Valley. As such, will keep the Winter Weather Advisories in place,
as is, but just know that this the p-type forecast (and
accumulations) are LOW confidence even though we`re just a few
hours away. This is certainly a scenario where some of the bench
areas around Pocatello COULD end up with a few more inches of snow
than parts of town just a few hundred feet lower in elevation.
Time will tell. Unfortunately, we`re gonna play this game again
tomorrow in the valleys as daytime temperatures will support rain
or rain/snow mix and then overnight cooling will bring the chance
for more accumulating snow. Expect another low confidence snowfall
forecast in the valleys again tomorrow, unfortunately. McKaughan
.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday
The long-duration atmospheric river event will continue to bring
moderate to heavy snow to our mountains and light snow, as well as
rain and mixed precipitation to our valleys, through late next
week. Our first round of Warnings and Advisories will expire early
Sunday, although more headlines are anticipated for early next
week as the next round of moisture shifts inland. Additional snow
accumulations for each 24 hour period Sunday through Tuesday look
to be another 7 to 12 inches in the central mountains and 5 to 15
inches above 6,500 feet elevation in the eastern mountains.
Locations elsewhere will receive Trace to a couple of inches
during each period. Transport of warm Pacific air will raise
temperatures with daytime highs peaking in the 30s and 40s on
Tuesday. Rising snow levels will mean increasing chances for mixed
precipiation and rain in our valleys heading into early next
week. However, widespread snow chances will return later week when
temperatures drop by 10 or so degrees Wednesday as the next
system arrives. Cropp
&&
.AVIATION...
Precipitation associated with a long-duration atmospheric river
event will continue through late next week. Confidence is very
low in precipitation type and timing of any transitions at KPIH
and KBYI, with models having a difficult time determining the
rain/snow line. Aside from Pacific air increasing temperatures
through the weekend, daytime warming will likely limit snow
accumulations in the valleys with the overnight hours being the
best chance for accumulations at the aforementioned terminals.
Winds will increase tonight into Saturday, with 25 to 35 kt gusts
impacting KPIH, KIDA, and KBYI. Cropp
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for IDZ051>057-059.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for IDZ058-060>066.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for IDZ069.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for IDZ071>075.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
419 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2025
.UPDATE...Updated 00z Aviation Discussion...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Building high pressure will be accompanied by warming temperatures
over the next several days, with daily highs reaching above seasonal
normals by this weekend. By the start of next week, anomalously
warm conditions are anticipated with most lower desert locations
achieving readings in the lower to middle 80s, a good 10 to 15
degrees above normal for the beginning of February. Warmer-than-
normal and dry conditions will then continue through at least the
end of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Current 500mb RAP analysis reveals upper-level ridging continuing to
build over the western CONUS while an Atmospheric River moves over
the Pacific Northwest. This AR is expected to remain well to our
north and will only help to provide periods of passing high clouds
over the Desert Southwest. With high pressure overhead and
increasing heights aloft, day-to-day temperatures will continue to
rise into the weekend, with near normal temperatures this afternoon
after a period of several days with below normal highs. In fact, on
Wednesday, Phoenix Sky Harbor was only able to reach 59 degrees,
which was 10 degrees below normal for that date. It was also the
first time in almost a year (Feb 10, 2024) that the airport failed
to achieve a temperature of at least 60 degrees. Highs this
afternoon across the lower deserts will range between the middle 60s
and lower 70s.
The weekend is shaping up to be quite a pleasant one as the high
continues to strengthen across the region, translating to a further
increase in temperatures during this period. Highs Saturday will
rise to about 5 degrees or so above normal, with readings in the
lower to middle 70s. By Sunday, afternoon temperatures are expected
to be well-above normal for many spots, with lower desert highs
reaching into the upper 70s to lower 80s, a good 10 degrees above
normal for the start of February. It only gets warmer from there as
global ensembles are in excellent agreement regarding the
persistence of the ridge over the Desert Southwest, promoting
unseasonably warm temperatures. By Monday/Tuesday, most of the lower
desert will see afternoon temperature readings in the lower to
middle 80s, 10-15 degrees above normal. At Phoenix Sky Harbor, it is
not out of the question to see at least one daily record high
eclipsed during the end of the weekend and start of next week. The
NBM gives both Sunday (current record 82F) and Monday (current
record 86F) a 20% chance of at least tying the record each of those
days. The best chance to exceed a daily record high at PHX is
currently Tuesday, when the NBM gives a 50% chance of rising above
the current record of 85 degrees last set back in 1963.
Beyond the middle portion of next week, the forecast becomes a bit
more uncertain due to the presence of a eastern Pacific trough over
the West Coast. The main disagreements at this time surround the
strength and positioning of this trough. However, models do agree
that the general position of this disturbance will remain off to our
north, resulting in very little in the way of sensible changes to
conditions, other than some slightly cooling temperatures. The
question for us will be how far this system progresses south as
that will impact the magnitude of regional cooling. Nonetheless,
NBM forecasts call for a continuation of above normal temperatures
through most, if not all, of next week, though there is still
decent spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles (8-10 degrees
difference), reflecting the uncertainty mentioned prior.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2315Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns under some passing high cirrus cloud
decks are expected through the TAF period. Winds will follow the
typical diurnal tendencies with speeds aob 7 kts. Extended periods
of light variability to even calm conditions can be expected as
well.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will continue to build over the region through the
beginning of next week, resulting in warming temperatures.
Temperatures will be near normal today before going above normal
tomorrow and well above normal for the beginning of next week.
MinRHs will be in the 20s today and fall into the teens tomorrow
and continue into the beginning of next week. Light winds will
tend to follow their typical diurnal patterns.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RW
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich