Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/31/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
722 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer than average temperatures continue overnight, with
passing mid to high level cloudiness. On Friday, a cold front
will push through the Southeast bringing widespread showers
through Friday night. Above normal temperatures expected for
this weekend with well above normal temperatures and dry weather
likely for next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
- Above normal temperatures through tonight with passing mid to
high level cloudiness.
High pressure has moved offshore ahead of the next storm system.
Winds remaining out of the southeast through the night. Although
moisture should be on the increase, conditions are expected to
remain dry. As for overnight temperatures, plenty of mid and
upper level cloudiness overspreading the region will help to
keep readings from falling too drastically. Still expecting low
temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees by daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
- Widespread showers Friday evening, thunderstorms possible
- Gusty winds on Friday afternoon
On Friday, a closed low over the central US will open up and
lift into the eastern US Friday night. This will bring a cold
front across the Southeast during the short term. Moisture
transport ahead of the front will be strong for the time of
year. NAEFS PWAT values and IVT are either near or at the
climatological maximum with PWAT values rising to 1.5 inches or
about 250 percent of normal. Strong vorticity advection,
moisture transport, and convergence ahead of the front will lead
to widespread showers over the Southeast. The line of showers
will move through the forecast area from west to east beginning
as early as 18Z with the most likely timing falling between 00Z
and 12Z Friday evening and Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts
are unlikely to cause flooding issues in part due to how quickly
the system moves through the region. All ECMWF, GEFS, and SREF
ensemble members keep totals below 1 inch. In general the chance
of thunderstorms is low given very weak thermodynamic profiles.
A small subset of model guidance shows some (mainly elevated)
instability amounting to 100 or 200 J/kg. This combined with
mechanical mixing from moderate low level shear could lead to an
isolated storm in the southern FA.
If will be gusty on Friday afternoon ahead of the front. 850 mb
winds speeds will be maximized around 18Z Friday afternoon but
there is some uncertainty on how deep mixing will be. The NAM
has the top of the mixed layer at about 1.5 kft while the RAP
and GFS top out closer to 4 kft allowing for gusts as high as 40
kts in the Bufkit momentum transfer tool. Given the
uncertainty we opted for the Lake Wind Advisory given frequent
gusts at 25 to 30 kts (about 30 to 35 mph) are much more likely.
Gusts should subside around midnight on Friday night.
It will be warm ahead of the front with highs in the 70s
despite mostly cloudy to overcast skies. Lows will be in the mid
to upper 40s as precip shifts east overnight and winds keep the
low levels mixed.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):
- Dry with above normal temperatures
Little change to the long term forecast. Confidence remains
high in the period from Saturday to mid-week as operational and
ensemble guidance show below normal atmospheric moisture, zonal
flow, and above normal heights for the majority of the period.
This pattern favors dry weather and above normal temperatures
for much of the long term. The weekend may be just above normal
with highs in the 60s but by Monday we will be well above normal
with highs in the 70s each day.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low level wind shear expected early Friday morning, with
showers-restrictions likely Friday evening.
Calm VFR conditions will continue overnight Thursday and
through much of the day Friday. Winds however will steadily
increase aloft tonight and throughout the day Friday. LLWS is
likely between 08-15z for all terminals as strong south-
southwesterly winds at and above 2k feet develop; the strongest
LLWS around 40-45 knots is probable between 10-13z. After 15z,
surface flow will be strong enough to eliminate any shear, but
surface winds will accordingly increase. South-southwest winds
after 15z, sustained 14-16 knots and gusts 24-28 knots likely
into Friday evening. A line of showers, possibly an isolated
thunderstorm, are then likely starting after 21z at AGS and DNL,
and 22z for CAE, CUB, and OGB. Associated vsby and ceiling
restrictions through at least 00z.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain, gusty winds, and restrictions
probable late Friday night as a low pressure system and cold
front move through the region. Otherwise, no widespread
restrictions expected.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for
SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for
GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
841 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light rain chances (40-70%) during overnight for the eastern
half of the CWA.
- Monitoring fog developing overnight, mainly east of highway
83.
- Above normal temperatures for the weekend begins another very
dry and quiet weather stretch through the forecast period.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Chance for light rain improving along the I-70 corridor. Also
will be monitoring the chance for fog development overnight.
Moisture wrapping around an upper low will bring a brief chance
(40-70%) of rain showers to north central and portions of
southwest Kansas overnight. The highest likelihood of
accumulating precipitation remains along I-70 and east of
Highway 83, where there is a 30-50% chance of rainfall exceeding
0.1 inches.
Additionally, patchy will develop overnight, particularly east
of Dodge City after 10 PM. What fog the does develop will linger
until northwest winds strengthen after 3 AM Friday morning. The
HREF indicates a 30-50% chance of visibilities dropping below 1
mile and less than a 20% chance of falling below 1/2 mile.
While the probability of dense fog remains low, travelers should
stay informed in case a Dense Fog Advisory is issued.
On Friday...As the 500mb low moves across eastern Kansas early
Friday morning, a gusty north wind of 35-40 knots in the
boundary layer and at 850mb will mix down to the surface as
downslope flow improves. Temperatures on Friday should warm into
the 55-60 degree range, according to CAM guidance, but early
day gusty winds will make it feel cooler.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Current RAP mesoanalysis places the low pressure system over Kansas
as it continues to move northeastward. As it leaves the CWA`s area
of influence, the system will bring another round of light rain
during the Thursday/Friday overnight. Prior any precipitation, highs
will attempt to reach the 50s. This is cooler than previous
forecasts as the cloud cover this morning was more persistent than
anticipated. Different short-ranged CAMs still hold some uncertainty
regarding tonights` precipitation potential. As the low continues to
move across the forecast area, a band of light rain showers is shown
to move southeastward spanning across the northeast portion of the
CWA. Ensemble chances range from 20-50%; rainfall accumulations are
still expected to be minimal <0.1 inches. Even with the colder than
expected temperatures today, snow is not expected and certainly will
not accumulate. Even the 95th percentile struggles to produce more
than a stray snowflake. The rain will start shortly around midnight
in the north by Hays, and will exit through the eastern counties a
few hours before sunrise.
Friday morning, skies are forecast to clear after sunrise allowing
diurnal heating to be maximized. Even after the slightly cooler than
expected temperatures Thursday, Friday highs are still forecast to
reach the upper 50s and 60s across SW Kansas. Ensembles have the
weekend highs being more widespread in the 60s starting February off
with warmer than normal highs. This will kick off another stretch of
quiet weather for SW KS. Synoptically, ensembles have a zonal flow
regime aloft replacing the exiting low pressure system.
Long-ranged models/ensembles start next week with temperatures
dropping off with hints of a cold frontal passage. There is wide
disagreement on exactly how much cooler these highs will be. The
highs will still be around normal if not a few degrees above normal.
Long-ranged models and ensembles have locked in towards a very dry
stretch. Ensembles` precipitation chances do not exceed 10% through
the forecast period and even some time beyond.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
The main focus for the TAFs this evening will be the potential
for precipitation over the next nine hours.
Models remain in good agreement that a 500mb low, currently
located over southwest Kansas based on satellite loops and SPC
Meso Analysis, will move slowly eastward overnight. Scattered
showers northwest of this upper low will track across north
central and portions of southwest Kansas during the overnight
hours. As this area of enhanced lift and moisture northwest of
the upper low crosses western Kansas, ceilings will lower, with
a 40-60% chance of these ceilings dropping to MVFR levels.
Additionally, visibilities may reduce to 3-5SM due to rain and
fog. The most favorable area for these showers and lower
ceilings/visibilities will in the Hays area where these
conditions are expected between 05Z and 09Z Friday morning.
Between 09Z and 12Z Friday morning skies will clear as the upper
low moves into central Kansas. By 15Z Friday a gusty northwest
wind will develop across all of western Kansas as stronger
boundary layer winds mix down to the surface.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Burgert
DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...KBJ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
649 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A back door cold front will affect part of the northeast
Montana late tonight to begin a more active weather pattern.
2) Precipitation chances start on Friday in the north and Friday
night in all areas.
3) A strong Arctic cold front will move in on Saturday night and
stay over the region through much of next week.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
There is strong agreement among ensembles of a backdoor cold front
moving in late tonight, which will bring low to moderate
probabilities of precipitation along the MT/SK border through the
day Friday. There is high confidence this front will stall, become
a warm front, and progress eastward Friday night. The HRRR and HRW
FV3 are in agreement of mixed precipitation, in the form of
freezing rain, sleet, and rain, occurring through the late morning
on Saturday. There is low confidence freezing rain will accumulate
more than one hundredth of precipitation. As this activity ends, a
disturbance is expected to move through central and southern MT on
Saturday and bring a mix of rain and snow as surface temperatures
climb above freezing. On Saturday evening, an arctic front will
bring temperatures well below average. Sunday evening marks the
beginning of snow chances that will linger through much of next
week. There is low confidence on snowfall amounts beyond Sunday
evening. Cold weather products are also expected in the north on
Sunday morning, and other locations for Sunday night into Monday
morning.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
There is moderate confidence on light snow occurring across the
far north on Friday, and mixed precipitation on Friday night.
There is high confidence of below average temperatures coming in
behind an Arctic front that will move into the are on Saturday
night.
Deviation toward raising POPs for the opportunity for mixed
precipitation moving through on Friday night. Also increased
southeast winds ahead of the warm frontal passage as well.
&&
.AVIATION...
LAST UPDATE: 2130Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR
DISCUSSION: Amid a broad upper level ridge, a back door cold front
will affect TAF sites beginning after 08Z tonight. There is high
(80-90%) confidence TAF sites will see MVFR ceilings between 13Z
and 21Z. There is low (10-30%) confidence that IFR ceilings may be
possible at KOLF from 17-20Z. Have left this last part out of the
KOLF TAF due to low confidence and very narrow window of
occurrence indicated by models.
WIND: Light and variable this evening. Becoming NE to E at 5 to
15 knots after 12Z. Veering farther E to SE at 15 to 20 knots
in the afternoon. Calming slightly after sundown to 10 to 15 kts.
BEYOND THE CYCLE: There is moderate(40-70%) confidence for
FREEZING RAIN from roughly 07-18Z Saturday with all the terminals
being impacted for at least few hours as cold air exits slowly
east and a disturbance begins an overrunning event. This threat
should end around 18Z Saturday. Ice on runways may be possible if
not on wings.
GAH
&&
.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
707 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light precipitation ending from west to east this evening,
with areas east of Highway 83 seeing it end last after
midnight CST.
- Above to much above normal temperatures for Friday through
Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 707 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025
Updated the going forecast to adjust pops, mainly west of
Highway 83, based on current radar coverage. Current echoes
have diminished some as the CWA lies on the NW periphery of the
low passing to our south. Scattered cloud cover has helped
maintain temperatures in spots. The latest CAMs(HRRR, RAP and
NamNest) continue to show the current coverage dissipating over
the next couple hours, with a final wrap-around band in the
east towards 05z-06z Friday. This is where the highest pops
reside and see no reason to change at this time. Will monitor
and adjust should this clear quicker than forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1150 AM MST Thu Jan 30 2025
Latest satellite imagery and upper air analysis shows clouds
wrapping around a closed low moving over Southwest Kansas. Drier
air moving up the east side of the low was causing cloud cover
to end.
The rest of the afternoon am expecting little to no
precipitation. The shallow saturated layer at the surface over
East Central CO will dry out as the closed low continues to move
eastward. There may be some breaks in the clouds as subsidence
moves over the forecast area. Cumulus clouds may form over the
southeast part of the forecast area this afternoon if there is
some CAPE present. However am not expecting any thunderstorms to
form.
Tonight another round of precipitation moves in from the east as
a corridor of isentropic lift swings around the closed low that
will be to the east of the forecast area. Soundings show a
rather dry environment over the western half or so of the
forecast area, so confidence is low any precipitation will occur
there. The precipitation will move southeast of the forecast
area around midnight. Temperatures should be warm enough for the
precipitation to be mainly rain.
Friday temperatures will be warmer than yesterday behind the
exiting closed low as a short wave ridge moves in. Relative
humidity will fall into less than 20%, however winds will be
light enough to negate a fire weather concern.
Friday night lows will be similar to tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM MST Thu Jan 30 2025
For the long term period, mostly zonal flow and above average
temperatures are forecast through the start of next week. After
that, there is a chance for cooler conditions in a pattern change.
Saturday through Monday are forecast to see zonal to slight
northwest flow aloft as a shortwave could move through, followed by
a larger wave around the United States/Canada border. With little
variability in ensemble 500mb charts, conditions are looking good
with highs in the 50s and 60s, some passing clouds, and lows in the
20s and 30s. If the wave dug farther south like some of the colder
ensemble members, temperatures could be about 10 degrees colder than
currently forecast. Precipitation chances remain low in most cases
with the lower levels forecast to be fairly dry.
Tuesday through the end of the week is a little less clear as there
is near even splitting in guidance between general zonal flow aloft
and the amplification of the upper low over the Great Lakes region.
In the zonal flow pattern, temperatures would likely remain steady
with highs between 40 and 60 degrees and intermittent chances for
rain with shortwaves (if the low level flow can bring some moisture
from the southeast.) If the trough amplified, near to below average
temperatures would become more likely, with a chance for a frontal
passage or two that could provide better precipitation chances.
There`s also a few ensemble members (mainly of the GEFS) that are
suggesting another cut-off low could develop and give us much colder
air with highs closer to the teens and 20s. Regardless of the
predominant pattern, the main frontal passage looks to be around
Thursday which would have our coldest temperatures Thursday and
Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 335 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025
For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Some MVFR
conditions are possible later this evening as a low pressure
system moves through Kansas. Low confidence as to this
impacting the terminal at this time, so will update as needed.
Winds, northwest around 10kts. Gusts to 20-25kts possible from
09z-14z Friday. By 20z, shifting west and eventually southwest
by 22z. LLWS 14z-20z Friday 350@40kts.
For KMCK, a mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings through 06z Friday.
Ceilings down to BKN015 possible from 00z-03z as the terminal
lies on the northern periphery of a low pressure system. Winds
north-northwest around 5-15kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
838 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Rain has tapered off, but with plenty of low level moisture, cold
and/or snow covered ground, and light winds, dense fog has
developed across the region this evening. So have issued a dense
fog advisory for the entire forecast area until 15z Friday. Will
see visibilities improve from south to north late tonight as the
system slides northeast through the area. In the meantime, will
see another round of rain, mainly over portions of northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois after 06z Friday.
Byrd
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain will taper off this evening, but intermittent showers will
linger through Friday, particularly across northeast Missouri
and West central Illinois late tonight into Friday morning.
- Dry weather with mild temperatures is expected for the weekend.
- The weather turns cooler next week, though how much cooler is
still very uncertain.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
The upper level cut off low we`ve been watching all week is now
over the intersecting borders of Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma.
Low level cyclogenesis is ongoing over eastern Oklahoma/western
Arkansas, and the strengthening low level trough is forcing the
expected 50kt low level jet. The resulting moisture convergence is
producing widespread light to moderate rainfall across the
forecast area. Rainfall rates have generally been less than 0.10
inch per hour with an occasional spot between 0.10 and 0.20.
Current thinking is that the heaviest precipitation will stay
south of our area across far southeast Missouri and far southern
Illinois where there is more chance for convection. As this is the
case, I do not anticipate the need to expand flood watches into
our area.
Rain will taper off from west to east this evening, although there
will likely be intermittent showers, particularly across northeast
Missouri and west central Illinois late tonight into Friday morning
as the low level closed low moves across those areas. The RAP
continues to show a little MUCAPE mostly just ahead of the low level
system across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois tonight,
and I would not be surprised if there were a few rumbles of thunder.
The closed upper low opens and is drawn into into the mean flow on
Friday where it finally picks up speed and pushes the system east of
the forecast area. A small chance for showers lingers on the back
side of the low mainly due to low level frontogenesis and moisture
convergence. Temperatures remain relatively mild through the period
with lows tonight in the 40s and highs Friday ranging from the mid
40s in northeast Missouri and west central Illinois to the mid 50s
in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois ahead of the surface
front.
Carney
&&
.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
There`s been little change in the forecast for this weekend. An
Arctic high pressure system will move along the U.S./Canada border
in the Great Lakes Region on Saturday. Our forecast area will be on
the southwest fringe of this high, which will result in a strong
temperature gradient from southwest to northeast. Guidance seems to
have settled down on the location of the gradient as the
interquartile range in temperatures on the NBM and LREF has
decreased to 3-4 degrees in most locations. The deterministic NBM
is among the warmer members of guidance right around the 75th
percentile. I would normally consider knocking a couple of degrees
off highs Saturday, but actual highs have been a little warmer than
guidance lately. Will therefore stick with the mid 40s to mid 50s
temperature range from east to west across the area. Sunday still
looks like the warmest day of the next 7 as low level flow turn to
the southwest ahead of the next cold front. Guidance has been very
consistent in forecasting highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s with
very small differences between the 25th and 75th percentiles, so
confidence remains high in those numbers.
Confidence in the forecast beyond Sunday remains low. The
aforementioned cold front drops into the Mid Mississippi Valley on
Monday, propelled southward by a strong surface pressure gradient
associated with the strong Arctic high behind it. Here is where
guidance begins to diverge. The operational GFS has a much
stronger high behind the front, and a deeper low over southeast
Canada that is trailing the front than the ECMWF does. The
differences in pressure of the two systems affects the pressure
gradient, and therefore the wind field. The GFS has much stronger
low level flow than the ECMWF does due to its stronger pressure
gradient, and this pushes the cold front all the way through our
forecast area by 18-21Z Monday. The weaker ECMWF stalls the front
over southern Missouri, and then lifts it slowly back to the north
Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS also lifts the front back to the
north, but not until Wednesday. These differences in frontal
position significantly affect temperatures for Monday through
Thursday. Interquartile ranges on both the NBM and LREF increase
from around 10 degrees on Monday, to around 20 degrees on Tuesday,
and up to 30 degrees in some instances on Wednesday. IQRs fall
somewhat on Thursday, but only a few degrees. There is a tremendous
amount of uncertainty in the forecast next week, and now there is an
increasing chance for precipitation on Wednesday forced by warm
advection as the front moves back to the north. If the colder GFS
solutions work out, we could be in for more wintry mixed
precipitation. However, warmer solutions like the ECMWF would only
produce rain. Will stick with the NBM solution at this point which
as there`s no sound reason to lean warmer or colder at this time.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Rain is tapering off across the TAF sites, though more rain will
move in later tonight with best chances across northeast Missouri
and west central Illinois. Otherwise, main forecast issue
continues to be the IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities. Some
concern that dense fog will develop tonight, for now kept
visibilities half a mile or higher for now. East winds will veer
through the forecast period as the system moves through,
eventually becoming northwest as system exits late tomorrow
afternoon/early evening.
Byrd
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for Adams IL-Bond IL-
Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey
IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
923 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
A potent upper level low is pushing toward the Mid-South tonight.
An axis of widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms cover
much of north MS and West TN with precip starting to taper off
west of the MS River. This axis will shift east overnight and exit
the region by mid-morning. The heaviest rain overnight into the
early morning is expected across north MS where an inch is
expected with locally higher amounts. Fortunately, the axis of
heavier precip is moving out of the area that had 3-4 inches of
rain earlier today and into an area that has not seen a lot of
rain so far. As a result, the flooding threat will diminish.
The flooding threat is winding down north of I-40 with the Flood
Watch scheduled to expire at midnight. The severe threat
continues to look very marginal. There is plenty of shear but
surface based instability is non-existent. The main threat is
gusty winds but those should stay sub-severe.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Heavy rain will continue to impact the Mid-South through Friday
morning, resulting in flooding concerns north of I-40. A brief
severe weather threat may materialize this evening, but overall
confidence is low. As for the rest of the forecast: expect above
average temperatures with rain chances returning by the middle of
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Training showers continue to impact areas north of I-40 this
afternoon. Rainfall estimates as of 230 PM remain between 2 and 4
inches with several areas reporting road closures as local rivers
and streams rise above bankfull. The latest guidance suggests
continual rainfall in this area through midnight. Additional
flooding is likely until cessation of heavy rains.
In addition, a low confidence severe weather threat may
materialize this evening in areas of north Mississippi. Increased
confidence is hindered by a lack of cloud breakage, limiting
available instability. However, the 18Z HRRR continues to develop
a line of storms as the front swings through the area tonight.
Overall, the severe weather window will last for a few hours, from
5-8pm. The greatest threat will be damaging winds.
A pleasant pattern will emerge this weekend as zonal flow aloft
dominates. Expect warming temperatures on Sunday, leading to above
average temperatures next week. Guidance continues to struggle
with a frontal passage, or two, next week. However, a few things
are clear: 1 - above average temperatures will persist, 2 - rain
chances increase by midweek.
ANS
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Messy TAFs remain this issuance. An upper low will bring impactful shower
and thunderstorm development across all terminals through early
tomorrow morning. IFR cigs will remain across JBR/MEM/MKL through
this same period. Conditions will improve to MVFR around 10Z,
before lifting to VFR conditions by mid-morning. South/southwest
winds will remain gusty through the overnight hours before gusts
briefly drop out. West/southwest winds will gust up to 25 kts once
again tomorrow afternoon behind the aforementioned upper low.
AEH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for ARZ009-018-026>028.
MO...Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for MOZ113-115.
MS...None.
TN...Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for TNZ001>004-019-020-
048-051.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AEH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
851 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 355 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025
- Chance for Dense Sea Fog Developing Along Portions of the
Atlantic Coast Tonight into early Friday.
- Breezy and warm Friday ahead of a slowing and weakening cold
front, forecast to arrive on Saturday
- Confidence increasing in above normal temperatures through the
first full week of February
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025
Some increased uncertainty this evening with the fog forecast. Sea
fog has yet to appear on satellite or other observational data.
While this was not unexpected, with most of the fog forecast to
develop after midnight tonight, some of the shorter term models
(the HRRR and hourly GFS MOS guidance) have backed off on sea fog
development and inland encroachment in their latest runs.
However, given the uncertainty and other models (NBM, CONSShort,
and RAP) still supporting development, have decided to maintain
this afternoon`s forecast for this update.
Regardless of sea fog development, patchy radiational fog is still
supported over the interior overnight tonight. However, this is
not forecast to produce widespread dense fog. Should dense fog
develop, it is expected to occur with the sea fog across Brevard
and Indian River Counties. Use caution when driving overnight
tonight and into Friday morning. If you encounter fog, slow down,
increase your following distance, and use only your low beam
headlights. Overnight lows are forecast in the upper 50s to lower
60s.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025
Tonight...Low level flow veers SE as high pressure departs over
the western Atlc. This will produce favorable conditions for some
sea fog to develop over the adjacent Atlc waters due to the
increasingly warm/moist air moving over the cool SSTs near the
coast, mainly from Fort Pierce Inlet northward. The sea fog will
develop later this evening and advect NW to N/NW and onshore the
coast overnight. There is a chance the sea fog could develop
earlier (anytime after sunset) and affect the barrier islands
before midnight. Expect there will be some inland penetration to
the fog across Indian River/Brevard counties, reaching east
Orange and Osceola and reduce visibilities below one half mile.
Do not expect dense fog to reach metro Orlando but have drawn
patchy fog for the rest of the interior. As winds increase above
the boundary layer, conditions for dense radiational fog look low.
Friday...Tightening southerly pressure gradient will produce a
breezy/gusty and warm day. Sustained winds around 15 mph will
gust up to 25 mph. Max temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s
over the interior. Temps will hold in the upper 70s along the
coast due to slight onshore wind component (S/SE) and lingering
fog/stratus that could last much of the morning.
Sat...A cold front is forecast to reach central FL Sat in the
morning, slowing and weakening as it does so. There will be
considerable cloudiness with the front but rain chances are very
low (less than 20 percent) primarily from Orlando northward in the
morning. Pressure gradient will decrease noticeably in the
frontal zone so there will be less wind. Temps not as warm as
winds turn NW-N but no significant cooling is forecast. Highs will
range from near 70 along the Volusia coast to near 80 OKeechobee
and interior Treasure coast counties.
Sunday-Wednesday (Previous)...We pick things back up where we
left off on Friday, in terms of a warming trend into next week.
High pressure gradually builds in with mid-upper level ridging
keeping the more active jet pattern well north of the area. The
aforementioned front, stalled over central Florida Sunday into
next week, may try to produce light shower activity in its
vicinity. Model discrepancies exist, with the ECMWF ensemble mean
showing the most QPF (generally 0.10" or less through Thursday
morning). The GEFS mean is under 0.05" most places and the
Canadian is somewhere in between the EPS and GEFS. Due to low
confidence in any one solution set, this forecast does not
explicitly mention rainfall Sunday-Wednesday. Just know that there
is a potential for light rain wherever the stalled front sets up
late weekend into early next week, and rain chances will be
introduced if/when confidence increases.
With high pressure in place, light onshore flow will be featured
with temperatures reaching the mid 70s to low 80s each afternoon.
Cloud cover looks to be greatest on Sunday, so the warmest days
are anticipated during the work week. A majority of the area west
of I-95 should have little issue reaching the low 80s, and the
potential is there (NBM probabilities around 30-40%) for locations
south of Lake Kissimmee to reach 85 degrees on Monday. For
perspective, we will be in the neighborhood of 5-10 degrees above
normal from Sunday into the middle of next week. That said, it
does not appear that any temperature records are in jeopardy of
being broken. Based on the 8-14 Day CPC Outlooks, the first half
of February is looking to be warmer than normal with near to
slightly below normal precipitation across east-central Florida.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025
A stretch of generally favorable boating is forecast with a couple
of exceptions. First, conditions look favorable for development of
sea fog tonight into Friday over portions of the intracoastal and
nearshore Atlc waters, mainly north of Fort Pierce Inlet. Second,
south winds increase 17-20 knots offshore Volusia and Brevard
waters (beyond 20 nm) exception of poor conditions offshore (north
of Sebastian Inlet) from Friday through early Saturday morning.
Winds...S/SE Fri 10-15 knots nearshore and increasing 15-20 knots
offshore north of Sebastian Inlet. A brief period of 20 knots is
possible well offshore Fri night but plan to handle this with a
Caution headline for now as opposed to a Small Craft Adv. A
lighter offshore flow Sat turning onshore as weak front passes by.
Then variable winds Sun-Tue 10 knots or less with a slightly
enhanced sea breeze near the coast each afternoon.
Seas...Wave heights remain 2-3 ft through tonight, increasing up
to 4-5 ft offshore on Friday/Fri night, north of Sebastian Inlet
(20-60nm). Seas subside to 2 ft nearshore and 3-4 ft offshore
during Sat and persist through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 623 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025
Fog is forecast to affect the area overnight. The greatest
confidence of impacts to terminals is at TIX/MLB/VRB, where sea
fog is forecast to develop, possibly as early as this evening,
then slowly drift onshore into the early morning hours. While the
inland extent of this fog is less confident, models suggest
additional, patchy fog developing over the interior tonight. Have
included MVFR reductions for all but FPR and SUA late tonight,
with the greatest impacts (IFR/LIFR) at TIX/MLB/VRB. Fog could be
slow to clear in this area Friday morning. However, VFR conditions
are forecast to prevail by 13-15Z area-wide, as southerly winds
increase. A few gusts to around 20-25kts will be possible along
the Treasure Coast Friday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 56 79 59 70 / 0 0 10 20
MCO 58 82 62 74 / 0 0 0 20
MLB 57 78 59 74 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 60 81 59 78 / 0 0 0 10
LEE 57 82 61 75 / 0 0 10 20
SFB 57 83 61 74 / 0 0 0 20
ORL 59 83 62 75 / 0 0 0 20
FPR 59 80 59 78 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Leahy
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
541 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Record breaking temperatures this afternoon.
- Increasing chance for light rain/snow mix this weekend,
especially for central and eastern Minnesota into western
Wisconsin.
- Colder temperatures return for the first full week of
February, with additional chances for snow through midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Clear skies across southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin this
late January afternoon. Strong warm air advection and lack of
snow cover are to thank for our record breaking highs today. The
high of 52 today at MSP broke the old record of 48 which was
set in 1989. For those who may be curious, the record high for
the month of January at MSP is 58 and was set in 1944. This is
likely out of reach for this year. Records were also broken at
St. Cloud and Eau Claire. See the climate section below for
more details. Today`s heat will likely take a big bite at what
little snow depth remains in areas along and south of Lake Mille
Lacs (roughly 1 to 2 inches max).
Looking at what is to come, light snow accumulations are likely
for some in central Minnesota on Saturday. A surge of positive 850mb
potential temperature advection will collide with cooler temps
in place ahead of its arrive early Saturday morning. The bulk of
the event will miss southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin
in favor of areas near and around Duluth. The southern extent
remains the greatest uncertainty, but the signal continues to
hold steady with 0.1-0.2" QPF in areas along and north of I-94.
Anywhere south of I-94 could see a dusting, but those locations
are also more likely to see a wintry mix due to warmer temps. In
addition to already lighter QPF amounts to the south, those
areas are less likely to have accumulating snow. Storm total
snow amounts haven`t changed much since the last forecast
package, with up to a half inch south of I-94 and 1-2" to the
north. Winds will also be noticeable on Saturday, with
widespread gusts nearing 25 to 30MPH possible.
The early Saturday event is the beginning of a week of a
seemingly unsettled air pattern aloft with multiple shortwaves
in queue. Sunday ushers in another chance for area-wide
precipitation, albeit PoPs are capped at 30-35%, with even
lesser of a chance along I-90. The more interesting component
with this second system is the potential for mixed precipitation
types as it will occur earlier in the day than the Saturday
system and surface temperatures will be cooler as it begins.
This does mean there is a slight chance for a brief period of
freezing rain in western Minnesota, but probabilities remain
very low, just not zero. If vertical profiles take their time to
saturate (meaning no precipitation until later in the day), the
chance for freezing rain lessens greatly as temperatures climb
from the low 30s into the low 40s in areas of P-Type concern.
Like the Saturday system, areas along and north of I-94 are
expected to remain all snow at this time. The latest QPF
guidance drops less than a tenth of an inch with this clipper,
which is reasonable given that the low looks to be weakening as
it progresses out of the Northern Plains and potentially
phasing with another low pressure to the north. As the system
moves out, winds will pick up on the back end Sunday night, with
20 to 25MPH gusts possible. These breezy winds will persist
through Monday as the upper-level jetstream centers itself
overhead and cold air advection dominates. Temporally
consistent PoPs in the 15-30% range are present in the forecast
from Tuesday through the end of the period. Depending on how
things pan out, we could potentially see an additional few
inches of snow throughout the week. A lot is still to be
resolved with this, but the ensembles do hint at an extended
period of light PoPs.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
A weak cold front has slipped through the region in the last
couple of hours, with light northerly winds expected through the
rest of the night. We`ll have clear skies through the night, but
with continued weak CAA on Friday, there will be potential for
some MVFR cigs, but confidence on the extent of MVFR cigs is too
low to include MVFR cigs in any of the TAFs at this time.
KMSP...RAP forecast soundings support the threat for 2k-3k foot
cigs from 18z to 00z. The HRRR shows potential for MVFR cigs
during this time as well, though confidence in MVFR cigs
occurring is too low to include in the TAF at this time.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR cigs likely. Chc IFR/SN. Wind SE 10-20G30 kts.
SUN...MVFR cigs likely. Chc -SN. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 348 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025
Record high temperatures this afternoon due to a combination of
warm air advection, sunny skies and a lack of snow cover.
*** Record Highs Thu Jan 30 ***
Location | Observed High | Record
------------------------------
MSP | 52 | 48 (1989)
STC | 49 | 44 (2024)
EAU | 51 | 50 (1896)
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...MPG
CLIMATE...PV