Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/19/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
440 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
...Updated Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Second of two disturbances within this cold pattern will
arrive Monday morning.
- Widespread 1-2" snowfall increasingly likely (>60% chance)
across a good portion of our forecast area during the day
Monday.
- Arctic front timed late morning or midday Monday will result
in increased northeast winds and steady/slowly falling
temperatures during the day Monday along with the snow.
- Coldest morning of the year likely for many locations Tuesday
morning. Wind Chill values down to -15 to -20F for much of
western Kansas early Tuesday morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
This afternoon`s water vapor imagery and RAP analysis revealed a
broad longwave trough focused on the central two-thirds of the
CONUS. Embedded within this larger scale pattern was a subtle
shortwave trough rotating through the pattern, moving across
southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas. This led to the light
snow/flurries across mainly far southwest Kansas today.
Accumulations have been light, generally less than one-half inch.
KDOT road conditions maps did show some highways partially snow-
covered across far southwest Kansas, but impacts have been
negligible.
This wave will move through later this afternoon and evening, and we
should see clouds parting later on tonight and winds dropping off as
the pressure gradient relaxes. No major changes were made to the
going forecast for tonight and Sunday in between storm systems. Lows
tonight will likely reach well down into the single digits (above
zero) with our traditionally colder areas of the CWA (i.e. northern
Hamilton County in particular) flirting with or perhaps a degree or
two below zero (degF) for lows. Since winds will be light early in
the morning, we do not anticipate a large enough area of sustained -
10F or colder Apparent Temperature values to warrant a Cold Weather
Advisory, so no headline for such will be issued.
On Sunday, temperatures should slowly but surely climb through the
teens, topping out in the lower to mid 20s most areas with some
direct insolation. Official forecast follows the straight NBM fairly
closely. Eyes then turn back to the northwest late Sunday Night into
Monday as the last of two shortwave troughs moves into our area of
the Great Plains. The Monday system will have better mid-
tropospheric frontogenesis to work with as the flow field will be
more deformed, increasing frontogenetic forcing for ascent in the
800-600mb layer. The sustained lift will allow saturation to occur
fairly easily given how cold the atmosphere will be, and we will see
light snow develop not too long after daybreak monday. As the area
of light snow develops, we will also be seeing a renewed surge of
arctic air out of the north and temperatures are likely to plateau
or slowly fall through the teens during the day. Monday will
definitely feel like winter around here with probably our coldest
daytime temperatures of the winter thus far.
As far as accumulating snow is concerned, the axis northwest to
southeast from roughly Scott City to Dodge City to Medicine Lodge
stands the best chance of 2"+ snowfall amounts from mainly 0.10 to
0.15" QPF (40-70% membership of the 100-member Grand Ensemble). Most
of the Snow Ratio guidance support a 16 to 20:1 SLR. We may also be
seeing a slight bump in the northeast winds with the pressure rises
behind the arctic surge, and it will not take much to blow the
powdery snow around. This definitely looks like the type of event to
support a Winter Weather Advisory, but since Monday is 4th period
for this afternoon`s forecast cycle, we will defer the decision to
hoist a headline to the mid shift as we gain more confidence in how
much of the forecast area will see an inch and a half or more of
snowfall.
Finally, Tuesday morning is likely to be the coldest night of the
winter season, as indications are that ideal radiational cooling is
likely to occur following Monday`s storm system. A fresh snow pack
of a couple inches will aid in supporting Tuesday morning lows down
into negative numbers (degF) for a good portion of our forecast
area. Thankfully, the core of this arctic air mass will quickly
shift east into the Upper Midwest with downslope flow replacing this
air mass mid-week. We should return back to our climatological
normal numbers of lower 40s highs and upper teens lows mid to late
week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 440 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
Remaining midlevel clouds will clear over the next few hours,
with VFR/SKC prevailing through this TAF period. Expect
increasing cirrus by 00z Mon. Elevated north winds currently
will quickly diminish at sunset, with light NW winds prevailing
through 18z Sun. Winds will trend light and variable toward the
end of the period.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
516 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A bitterly cold arctic airmass will bring a prolonged period of
wind chills reaching from 20 to 40 degrees below zero late
tonight through Wednesday morning. The coldest wind chills will
occur on Monday night into Tuesday morning when wind chills as
cold as 40 below will be possible.
- A Cold Weather Advisory goes into effect at 9 PM tonight for
north-central Wisconsin and 3 am for northeast Wisconsin,
lasting through 9 PM Monday. Confidence continues to increase
that an Extreme Cold Warning will be required on late Monday
night into Tuesday morning.
- A warming trend will start on Wednesday which will continue into
the weekend. High temperatures ranging from 10 to 20 degrees on
Wednesday will warm into the middle 20s to lower 30s by
Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
Short Term...Tonight and Sunday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show an
amplifying upper air pattern consisting of a beefy ridge
positioned from the far eastern Pacific to eastern Alaska and a
downstream trough from Hudson Bay to the western Great Lakes.
Mid-level height falls continue over the Great Lakes early this
afternoon as cold advection drops 850mb temps into the upper
teens and low 20s below zero. The leading edge of the very cold
air is located over northern Minnesota and poised to move into the
state tonight. Meanwhile, the cold air is generating light lake
effect snow showers and flurries near the Upper Peninsula border
early this afternoon. Forecast concerns mainly center around the
dangerous wind chills, then followed by lake effect snow showers
over far northern WI.
Dangerous Wind Chills: Cold advection will continue over the next
24 hours as 850mb temps fall to 28 below by late tonight and as
cold as 30 below on Sunday. While winds won`t be strong and gusty,
they will be sustained at 5 to 10 mph tonight and 10 to 15 mph on
Sunday.
This very cold airmass appears to be slightly delayed moving into
the region based on the previous forecast for tonight. While lows
will fall from zero to 15 below by early Sunday morning, wind
chills are not forecast to fall to near advisory criteria until
shortly after midnight over north-central WI and to around 4-6 am
over northeast WI. The Cold Weather Advisory starts at 9 pm, which
is on the early side, particularly over northeast WI. Will refine
the start time over northeast WI to start at 09z (3 am).
Do not expect much improvement in wind chills on Sunday as they
remain in the 15 below to 25 below range through the day. Don`t
see a reason to end the Advisory early as it is still very cold
and it keeps headline management simpler.
Light Lake Effect Snow: Wind trajectories will remain from the
west-northwest though Sunday afternoon. Low inversion heights and
lowering snow to liquid ratios as the extreme cold arrives means
potential is very low for any sort of significant snowfall over
far northern WI. But light snow and flurries can be expected at
times over the next 24 hours near the Upper Peninsula border.
Long Term...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Focus of the discussion continues to revolve around dangerously cold
temperatures through Tuesday followed by light snow chances
thereafter.
Temperatures/wind chills: The coldest air remains projected to move
across the region on Monday night into Tuesday when 850mb temps
range from 29 below to 33 below zero. Combined with a brisk but
persistent 5 to 8 mph wind, wind chills from Monday evening through
Tuesday morning range from 30 to 40 below zero across the entire
area.
Wind chills are forecast to moderate into the 15 below to 25 below
zero range on Tuesday afternoon, but the latest guidance shows wind
chills falling back into the 20 below to 30 below zero range on
Tuesday night. This period will likely be tricky considering wind
chills will be on the lower end of advisory criteria and low level
temps will be warming as the core of the arctic airmass departs.
Headlines: A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through 9 pm
Monday. As been advertised for days, confidence is relatively high
that an Extreme Cold Warning will be needed for the rest of Monday
night into part of Tuesday morning before going back to an Advisory.
How long the latter Advisory runs will be difficult, but there is
potential for it to run through Tuesday night.
Snow chances: Clipper energy will be traversing the region on
Wednesday night through Thursday which will provide light snow
chances at times. This energy looks rather disjointed and moisture
will be in short supply, so snowfall amounts will be very light.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 507 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
Aside from some lake-effect low clouds near the Upper Michigan
border and northern Door County, skies were clear across the
forecast area early this evening. Northwest winds had diminished a
bit, but were still gusting to 15 to 20 kts in some areas.
Patchy low clouds over MN are expected to overspread the region
during the late evening and overnight hours, but given the overall
dryness of the air mass, will only forecast SCT coverage at this
point. That being said, cannot rule out the possibility of
localized MVFR ceilings and a few flurries, so will monitor for
possible adjustments with the next set of TAFs. Models are
forecasting an increase in mid-level clouds by Saturday evening,
but will only mention these at the RHI TAF site late in this TAF
period. Moderate northwest winds will continue to gust at 15 to 20
kts through the period, and a few light snow showers will persist
near the U.P. border.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM CST Monday
for WIZ005-010>012-018-019-030-035-036.
Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 9 PM CST Monday for
WIZ013-020>022-031-037>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....MPC/MPC
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
503 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Frigid air moves in tonight and will persist through Wednesday
morning. Low temperatures are expected to range from 5 degrees
above or below zero each night Sunday through Tuesday.
- Wind chill values will fall below zero by Sunday morning, and with
the exception of the daytime hours on Monday, likely stay below zero
in most areas through Tuesday night. Minimum wind chill values of 10
to 20 below zero degrees will be common north of I-72, with values
of 5 to 15 below common south of I-72.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
The primary weather hazard through the middle of next week is a
stretch of bitter cold conditions. As of Saturday afternoon, RAP
analysis showed a strong, 1046-mb sfc high pressure just north of
the Montana border, while a 989-mb sfc low was located northeast
of the Hudson Bay, with an expansive cold front draped southward
from there, approaching the eastern Appalachians. The sfc high
will slowly shift southeast, but this sfc pattern will support the
presence of a persistent tight pressure gradient across IL, which
will keep breezy northwest winds in place. Continued cold air
advection will push a very cold, Arctic air mass being in place by
midday Sunday, with most deterministic models suggesting 850mb
temps between -20 and -25 degC, which is well below the 10th
percentile of the ILX observed sounding climatology (-15 degC).
For tonight, the coldest conditions are expected in areas
northwest of the IL River Valley, where temps fall into the low
single digits and northwest winds remain sustained around 15-20
mph. The latest HREF guidance indicates there is a 60-80% chance
that wind chill values fall below our cold weather advisory
criteria (-15 degF for those counties). Daytime highs will be
significantly below normal, and this is despite the fact that we
are climatologically at the coolest point of the winter season.
Normal high temps are right around freezing this time of year. The
forecast high temps don`t quite threaten record cold highs,
however, which are at or below zero for Peoria.
Temps turn even colder by Sun night, with lows around or slightly
below zero, although winds will be lighter (but not calm) during
the Sunday night-Monday morning period. The net result is that
forecast minimum wind chill values are forecast to be around our
cold weather advisory criteria for a good chunk of the CWA
(criteria values are - 15 degF for counties along and north of
I-72, and -10 degF south of I-72). The latest HREF has a 60-90%
chance of -10 wind chill values south of I-72, with a 50-90%
chance of -15 wind chill values from Canton to Decatur and north.
These areas were all included in a cold weather advisory for
Sunday night into Monday. The greatest uncertainty in regards to
needing an advisory was in Mason, Menard, and Sangamon Counties,
where the probability of wind chills below - 15 degF was just 40%.
But rather than split hairs, opted to include these counties in
the cold weather advisory as well.
Conditions do "moderate" a tad during the day on Monday, with
highs in the teens and wind chill values rising 10-15 degrees
above advisory criteria during the day. Thus, the cold weather
advisories issued by our office are set to expire by mid-morning
Monday. This won`t be the end of the cold, however, with two more
bitter cold nights anticipated (Mon night and Tues night).
By Wednesday, the center of the sfc high pressure is progged to
push east of Illinois, swinging sfc winds around to southerly and
releasing the region from the grip of the Arctic air. High temps
climb back to near normal (low/mid 30s) by Thurs/Fri. Guidance
does suggest a clipper-style shortwave trough digging towards the
area Wed night into Thurs, but flow near the Gulf Coast is
directed offshore at this time, limiting moisture advection into
our area ahead of this system. Ensemble mean PWAT values are quite
low, only around 0.25", so meaningful precipitation currently
appears unlikely out of this wave, and the latest blended forecast
has PoPs less than 10% through the upcoming work week.
Erwin
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 503 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
MVFR ceilings are hanging on at KDEC-KCMI, but these should shift
south and dissipate by 00z. SCT/BKN mid level (VFR) clouds will
then dominate the central IL terminals through the forecast. NNW
winds at 12-15 kt overnight will occasionally gust near 20 kt. By
early morning winds are forecast to back slightly northwest with
gusts becoming more frequent and increasing near 25 kt. These
gusts are expected to continue through Sun afternoon.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for
ILZ027>030-036.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Monday for
ILZ031-037-038-041>046-048-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
954 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Cold and breezy on Sunday with light to moderate snow showers.
The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended to the I-65
corridor for light to moderate snow accumulations.
* Frigid temperatures are expected into the middle of next week.
Lows will be in the single digits, with wind chills below 0 at
times. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will only reach the
teens to low 20s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
Latest satellite imagery and sfc obs suggest that any lingering
precip is currently limited to a few counties near Lake Cumberland
as the shallow cold air filters in from the north. Longwave trof
axis is making its way across the Plains, and we still expect
isentropic lift to develop ahead of that feature overnight. Hi-res
models suggest that will be after 06-07Z, so have tweaked the timing
just a bit later. Still largely following the HRRR solution, which
has a fairly sharp gradient on the western edge of the precip
especially Sunday morning. Other than timing the overall forecast
remains relatively unchanged, so will just push an update to the hi-
res products.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
This Afternoon and Evening...
At this hour, the surface cold front has made its way through the
area, and winds have veered from southwesterly to northwesterly over
the past several hours. Cold advection has begun to drop
temperatures from northwest to southeast, with temperatures ranging
from the mid 30s across southwest IN to the mid-to-upper 40s in the
Lake Cumberland area. Temperatures will continue to slide as cold
advection continues this evening and tonight, with winds staying up
between 5 and 15 mph out of the north-northwest overnight. While
most of the measurable precipitation has ended since cold FROPA, SDF
ACARS soundings show a favorable moisture profile for drizzle and/or
mist. Would expect drizzle/mist to continue through the afternoon
along and east of I-65 until we lose some of the saturation near the
ground.
Tonight and Tomorrow...
This evening into tonight, a 500 mb jet core currently over the Four
Corners region will swing along the southern edge of broad cyclonic
flow aloft over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. As
this feature ejects east of the Mississippi Valley, left exit jet
dynamics will place our region into an increasingly favorable regime
for synoptic-scale ascent. While the low-to-mid levels will
initially be sub-saturated, as this shortwave approaches the region,
model soundings show deepening saturation up to around 700 mb. With
cold advection taking place through the lower troposphere, this will
allow for saturation to reach the DGZ, leading to efficient ice
crystal production. The combination of enhanced forcing for ascent
with saturation up through the DGZ should cause initially
disorganized flurries and light snow showers to become more
widespread and intense, especially as we head toward sunrise on
Sunday. From around sunrise through the early afternoon hours, a
band of enhanced snowfall rates is likely to pivot through central
and eastern KY and will be heavy enough to result in light
accumulations. Recent runs of high resolution guidance (most
notably, the HRRR) have shown this band developing earlier and
farther to the west, producing advisory level snowfall
accumulations. As a result, the winter weather advisory has been
extended back to the I-65 corridor.
Outside of the heaviest band of snow, light snow showers are
expected across the area, and light accumulations of up to one inch
are still likely. It is certainly possible that the advisory may
need to be extended farther west if current trends in guidance
continue and confidence in where the heaviest band of snow will set
up is only moderate at this time.
While the best forcing will begin to exit the region early Sunday
afternoon, steepening low-level lapse rates and residual low-level
moisture should lead to continued scattered snow showers and
flurries through the afternoon, with coverage decreasing from west
to east late in the day on Sunday. Steepening lapse rates will also
assist in bringing stronger winds aloft to the ground, and NW winds
of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph are expected late Sunday
morning through the afternoon. Wind chill values will fall through
the teens into the high single digits Sunday afternoon, and bitterly
cold conditions will settle in by Sunday night. With temperatures
below freezing and falling (especially Sunday night), slick spots
will be likely on untreated surfaces, although this may be mitigated
somewhat by drying due to windy conditions.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
Sunday night skies will clear as an impressive dome of Arctic high
pressure over western Canada slips slowly southward and begins to
nose into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Winds will keep up around
5-10 mph, but with the clear skies, fresh snowcover, and the frigid
source region of the incoming ridge, it will be a very cold night.
Right now lows are progged in the single digits, with minimum
apparent temperature values mostly in the single digits below zero.
On Monday the center of the surface high will drop into the upper
Plains and continue to ridge southeastward into much of the eastern
United States. With a steady supply of cold air, temperatures on
Monday will peak in the mid teens to around 20, which is about
twenty-five degrees below normal for mid/late January. Monday night
into Tuesday morning an area of mid/upper clouds associated with a
pool of 700-500mb moisture and broad 500mb trough will sweep
eastward from the Ozarks through Kentucky and Tennessee. Models are
in decent agreement with this; LREF grand ensemble shows about a 65%
chance of at least 75% sky coverage around sunrise Tuesday. With
these clouds in place temperatures might not be quite as cold Monday
night compared to Sunday night, despite lighter winds and snow still
on the ground. At this time lows Monday night should range from the
upper single digits to lower teens, about 3-6 degrees warmer than
Sunday night. Still a very cold night, though.
The cold air will continue to give us frigid weather through Tuesday
night with generally elevated surface pressures and negative 500mb
height anomalies crossing the region. The expected clouds from
Tuesday morning should move off to the east in the afternoon,
leaving mostly clear skies for us Tuesday night and low temperatures
back down into the single digits.
We`ll climb out of the deep freeze for the second half of the week
as the cold air mass moves off. Afternoon temperatures should rise
above freezing each day Thursday through Saturday, though the
nights will still be chilly with lows generally in the 20s. A 5H
shortwave trough and surface cold front will approach the region by
Thursday night but will be low on moisture and are currently
expected to be dry as they move through.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
Confidence is high that we`ll have accumulating snow late tonight
into Sunday, as well as gusty NW winds in the afternoon. Medium
confidence at best in the specific timing and how low cig/vis will
go. Overall trend is that the greatest impacts, or at least the
lowest cig/vis, will be in LEX and RGA, while BWG and especially HNB
will see lesser impacts.
Low cig/vis already in place with IFR at LEX and RGA, while SDF and
HNB are just above 2000 feet. Will maintain status quo this evening
and into the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. By 08-10Z look for snow to
develop, with vis initially dropping into MVFR and cigs below 2000
feet. Heaviest snow will be in the mid to late morning on Sunday,
with IFR vis and cig possible in both SDF and LEX. North winds will
back to more of a NW direction, but speeds remain near 10 kt for
most of the morning before increasing around midday.
Early afternoon will be the overlap between the gusty winds and
continued precip. Vis will remain IFR for most. Once the precip
shield departs mid-afternoon, look for a gradual lifting of
ceilings, with SDF going to VFR by sunset while LEX remains MVFR
below 2000 feet.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday to 1 PM
EST /noon CST/ Monday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-
061>067-070>078-081-082.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday for KYZ028>043-045>049-053>057-
063>067-074>078-081-082.
IN...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday to 1 PM
EST /noon CST/ Monday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAS
SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...RAS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
723 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 722 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
- Band of light snow to affect southeast OK and west-central AR
into this evening. Snow accumulations are likely to remain
below half an inch.
- Very cold temperatures tonight through Tuesday. Cold weather
advisory in effect for northwest Arkansas and portions of far
northeast Oklahoma tonight into Sunday morning. Another chance
for light snow late Monday/Monday night.
- Warmer temperatures expected Wednesday through the end of next
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 722 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
Band of light snow set up just to the south and west of Tulsa late
this afternoon, and it has since shifted south and east from there
early this evening. The HRRR has a good handle on it, so the
forecast PoPs/QPF/SnowAmt are heavily based on HRRR data for the
evening. Vsbys beneath the band have been 3 to 4 miles for the
most part, with a brief 2 mile report at Stigler. The snow will
have to get heavier to get some accumulation. Some light accums
(less than a half inch) could occur beneath the band as it
continues to the south and east. Travel impacts are not expected.
Based on the latest wind/gust data, the cold weather advisory was
expanded a little west into far northeast Oklahoma for wind chills
near or just below zero by Sunday morning.
Lacy
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 223 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
Light snow/flurries will continue across mainly NE OK this
afternoon with precip shifting across NE OK and into NW AR this
evening. Any measurable snow through this evening will remain
limited, and mainly relegated to the higher terrain of NW AR.
Additionally, gusty northerly and the cold temperatures expected
overnight will create wind chills between 0 and -5 across far NW
AR overnight into Sunday morning. Therefore a Cold Weather
Advisory has been posted effective from midnight through 10 am
Sunday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
Cold temperatures will continue across the forecast area through
Tuesday. Another reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive later
in the day Monday, along with another upper disturbance that will
bring low chances for light snow across parts of E OK Monday
afternoon and evening. Any accumulations with this system are
expected to remain very light. The deep cyclonic upper flow
pattern will begin to modify by later in the week, and will aid in
bringing warmer temperatures closer to seasonal averages to the
area later in the work week, and next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
Band of light snow continues near I-40 in eastern OK. Latest
trends suggest this band will set up a bit farther south, and thus
lower snow chances at KXNA/KROG, and have also added a PROB30 at
KMLC. Ceilings will remain VFR outside of heaviest band, with MVFR
conditions possible for a few hours this evening at KFYV/KFSM.
Conditions will return to VFR by late tonight and continue through
Sunday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 15 28 12 30 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 19 31 14 31 / 30 0 0 0
MLC 17 31 14 31 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 12 27 9 28 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 12 25 8 29 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 13 23 9 25 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 16 28 14 30 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 13 23 10 26 / 10 0 0 0
F10 16 30 15 31 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 20 33 17 33 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Sunday
for OKZ063-069.
AR...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Sunday
for ARZ001-002-010-011.
&&
$$
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...14