Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 01/14/25
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
953 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Accumulating lake snows continue
- Organized lake effect snowfall will transition to much less intense
lake effect snow showers by Wednesday.
- Another clipper system passes through Wednesday night into
Thursday bringing another round of light snow. Some lake
enhancement possible along Lake Michigan.
- A brief lull in the wintry pattern later this week before
more active and much more (and possibly dangerously) cold
weather returns to close out the holiday weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
Westerly flow lake effect snow continues over mainly far
northern lower MI. Moderate snow is occurring within skinny
stronger bands, though these have been shifting around this
time. Slow veering has occurred since late afternoon (when wsw
flow was occurring). A 275-280 flow continues on northern Lake
MI tonight, until a touch of additional veering occurs toward
12Z. Given this fetch, the HRRR and RAP continue to advertise
too much QPF/snow in Antrim/Otsego Cos, and too little in
Emmet/Cheboygan Cos. Some tweaks will be made to the forecast to
reflect this.
Better banding on Superior is just scraping by Whitefish Pt.
That area will continue to be grazed until 4-5am, when more
veering will push this band onshore into nw Chip Co. 1-2"
possible near Whitefish Pt.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:
Deep troughing continues to build southeast across the region, with
attendant surface low working itself east into western Quebec. Lake
aggregate reinforced surface trough extends back west from this low
into central Lake Superior...placing northern Michigan under a west
to slightly southwest boundary layer flow regime. Cold air advection
wrapping around this low kicking off lake snows into those favored
west flow areas of northwest lower Michgian...with most organized
Lake Superior snows targeting areas north of the SOO.
Cold air advection only increases with time as embedded shortwave
trough works its way across the Northwoods tonight. Lake aggregate
troughing will drop south behind this departing wave on Tuesday,
with the combination of both keeping lake processes going through
the entirety of the short term period.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Addressing lake snows and attendant amounts/headline considerations
right through Tuesday.
Details:
Expect lake snows to organize and increase in intensity with time
tonight as both synoptic scale moisture contribution and convective
cloud depths increase. Convective layer flow regime remains a west
one off northern Lake Michgian...targeting the M-68 to M-32 corridor
for best snows. Expect lake snows of lesser intensity elsewhere
across northwest lower Michigan. A bit more complicated scenario off
Lake Superior, with the intial flow regime favoring Ontario for
better snows. Passage of lake aggregate trough will likely be
accompanied by a burst of snow, with quickly veering post-trough
winds shunting best snows into central Upper Michigan toward Tuesday
morning.
Lake aggregate troughing will continue to slide south, veering winds
to north-northwest by later Tuesday afternoon across the area. Lake
snows will realign accordingly...focusing best snows to areas well
west of Interstate 75 across northwest lower Michigan. Lake
parameters remain healthy with good lift through the favored
dendritic growth layer, supporting pockets of inch per hour snowfall
rates within better banding. Shifting winds will keep duration of
heavier snows limited at any one location.
Upshot to the above...still looking at several additional inches of
snow across northwest lower Michigan...with again the focus for
better snows shifting south with time on Tuesday. Much less
accumulation across eastern upper Michigan...with heavier snows
remaining well to their west by later tonight and through the day
Tuesday. Inherited advisories will remain, with some likely south
extension to those advisories needed for Tuesday.
Definitely some chilly weather, but nothing extreme, with lows
tonight in the single digits and lower teens...and highs Tuesday in
the teens to middle 20s. Of course, gusty winds will make it feel
several degrees colder (wind chills likely a few degrees below zero
tonight).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:
Closed low will be slowly departing eastward through Ontario and
Quebec at period onset, resulting in 500mb height rises across the
Great Lakes. A secondary wave digging through central Canada will
further reinforce shortwave ridging ahead of it through the day
Wednesday, likely suppressing much of the lake effect activity that
lingers into Tuesday night. The wave and associated surface low
pressure pass through the region Wednesday night into Thursday,
bringing the next round of widespread snowfall to the region. This
system will not come with a reinforcing shot of colder air... as we
likely warm / moist advect in the low levels once the system passes,
which likely leaves us in a drizzly / stratus regime through the
rest of Thursday into Thursday night. Warmer temperatures, possibly
above freezing, build by Friday as another system approaches from
the west. This more southerly flow will carry into later Friday
before another clipper, this time a more northerly track (hence the
milder airmass), passes through with its associated cold frontal
boundary that sets the stage for the eventual intrusion of a deep
arctic airmass... potentially the coldest air of the season (to
date) as we head into next week... accompanied by more lake effect
snowfall.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Lake Effect Snow Tapering Tuesday Night into Wednesday: Ongoing true
NW flow lake effect snows will be on a downward trend later Tuesday
night as ridging overhead and drier air aloft creates an
increasingly hostile environment for lake effect snow band
maintenance. Regardless, still anticipating the core of the NW flow
belts to continue their lake effect snows... namely a dominant band
across that Antrim / Kalkaska region, leaking SE into Crawford and
far NW Roscommon. Lesser organized lake effect snows will be found
elsewhere. Later Tuesday night, this activity should begin to be
really suppressed due to the ridging / drying aloft. Overall,
perhaps an additional 2-4" of snowfall in Antrim and Kalkaska in
that dominant band, with 2" or less elsewhere in the snowbelts. Some
lighter / less organized lake effect snow showers likely carry into
the day Wednesday, pivoting around to focus more on the Emmet /
Cheboygan / Straits area with time as winds shift more SW by
Wednesday evening.
Wednesday night Clipper and Late Thursday Precip: Moisture starved
clipper system will make its way through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. Aforementioned low intensity lake snows in the SW
flow belt may get a jolt and become briefly better organized as
synoptic moisture increases, and lake enhancement commences. This
would be a relatively short window, but could produce some better
intensity snows. Overall, this does not look like an overly
impressive snow producer, generally 1-3" of snowfall through midday
Thursday, with the highest amounts focused along / west of I-75...
potentially locally higher in the Straits area if any lake
enhancement can overperform. Activity will transition back to some
lesser organized lake snows through the day Thursday... but with a
lack of cold advection, favorable lake effect parameters will be on
the downward trend as warm advection commences (highs 31-35
Thursday). This will keep things rather cloudy for Thursday night...
and with saturation in the DGZ potentially collapsing and leading to
freezing drizzle at times as temperatures fall back below 32
Thursday night.
Holiday Weekend: Northern stream clipper will pass along and north of
Lake Superior Friday into Saturday. Some snow will be possible
across the eastern Yoop, but will have to contend with dry slotting
across northern lower as highs Friday spike into the mid-to-upper
30s. No signals jump out on guidance for heavy snowfall, so this
will probably be another lighter snowfall for our friends north of
the Bridge. While this system will be rather mundane in nature, it
does bring about some pretty important developments, namely in the
form of a reinforcing, and likely quite impressive, intrusion of
arctic air to the region. Stout cold air advection will likely drum
up some more lake effect snows come Saturday as temperatures likely
tumble through the day, and by Saturday night, most of the area is
in the lower single digits, and perhaps even below zero in the
eastern Yoop. Lake snows will continue... but if current guidance
trends verify... this won`t be your impressive lake induced minivan
sized dendrites (slight exaggeration) that you see in those Hallmark
Christmas movies... if surface temperatures hold in the lower single
digits, the snow composition will remain dry, but take on more of a
talcum powder composition... which will likely bring about
heightened visibility issues and blowing / drifting snow. The cold
air doesn`t stop there... latest indications are that there may be a
string of days early next week with highs in the low-to-mid single
digits and overnight lows well below zero... which may bring about
our first cold air headlines of the season if trends hold.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
Lake effect clouds and -SHSN continue. Snow will be most common
near PLN tonight, but heading into Tue morning, veering winds
will spread snow into TVC/CIU/MBL. IFR conditions will occur at
times with more intense snow showers. Otherwise, a mix of MVFR
to VFR conditions.
Brisk w winds will become nw Tuesday.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ016-017-
021-022-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
245 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very low chance (5%) for fog across Graham and Norton counties
Tuesday morning.
- Above to much above normal temperatures Wednesday through
Friday.
- A Prolonged Period of Dangerously Cold Temperatures and Wind
Chill Readings is expected this weekend and early next week.
- Periods of light snow and blowing snow are possible this
weekend and early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1235 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2025
Low pressure across the upper Great Lakes continues keeping the
region in NNW flow. Clear skies are currently across the area,
but an increase in cloud cover overnight is forecast as a
surface trough with an associated back door cold front nudges
into the area. WNW winds are forecast to continue through the
day and the night helping keep temperatures around normal for
this part of January with highs in the 40s and lows falling into
the mid to upper teens. Continuing to monitor the potential for
fog and stratus overnight with the backdoor coldfront. Latest
runs of the RAP and CONSHORT continue to keep the front and the
associated wind shift to the ENE which is favorable for fog
development just east of the forecast area in Phillips and Rooks
counties so as of now will leave fog out of the forecast but
will need to be monitored.
For Tuesday, a slightly cooler trend in temperatures has been
noticed mainly due to the cooler air mass with the backdoor cold
front and associated ridge axis so close to the eastern county
warning area. A second area that will need to be watched is a
weak disturbance moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle which
looks to bring more cloud cover during the day to western
portions of the area as mid level moisture increases. I was
contemplating putting in flurries and/or light snow into the
forecast across NW parts of the forecast but am opting to hold
off due to dry in the low levels and a trend of weaker omega in
the lower part of the dendritic growth zone which will make it
that much harder for anything to get through the dry layer other
than virga. Highs for Tuesday are forecasted to be slightly
cooler than today in the mid 30s to mid 40s with the mid 40s
across the southern part of the forecast area where more sun
should help warm them.
Wednesday, the low pressure across the upper Great Lakes will
begin to move to the west transitioning the region to more of a
pronounced NW flow. The difference with this NW flow pattern
compared to what the region has seen thus far this winter is
that a chunk of warmer air from the Pacific NW rides down the
lee of the Rockies which will lead to warming trend for the
region. High temperatures in the mid to upper 40s are forecast
Wednesday and then into the mid to upper 50s on Thursday as more
of a SW surface wind does look to help warm temperatures even
more.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2025
..Prolonged Period of Dangerously Cold Temperatures and Wind
Chill Readings expected this weekend and early next week..
Long range guidance indicates that deep troughing (cyclonic
flow aloft) will envelope the Continental US this weekend and
early next week.. as an upper level ridge (anchored ~500 miles
west of the North American Coast) amplifies in the eastern
Pacific. Synoptic patterns such as this are typically associated
with significant Arctic outbreaks in the Continental US (east
of the Rockies).
Indeed, long range guidance indicates that a large/broad Arctic
airmass will surge southward from Canada into the CONUS this
weekend (beginning Fri night-Sat AM). While the core of the
Arctic airmass (characterized by 850 mb temperatures as cold as
-28 to -35C) will likely reside over the Dakotas, Upper Midwest
and Upper Great Lakes (well northeast of the Tri-State area)..
850 mb temperatures ranging from -10C to -20C appear likely in
the Goodland county warning area. High confidence in well below-
average temperatures Sat-Sun-Mon, coldest Sun-Mon when highs may
not exceed the teens, lows may approach 5 to 10 degrees below
0F and a persistent N-NNW breeze will foster wind chill readings
around -10F to -25F. For context, average high temperatures in
mid January are in the lower 40`s and average lows are in the
mid-upper teens.
Shortwave energy in cyclonic flow aloft may foster periods of
light snow (and blowing snow) this weekend and early next week,
with the relative greatest potential in geographically favored
areas (e.g. Palmer Divide), though.. at this range.. forecast
specifics (precipitation, in particular) cannot yet be
ascertained with confidence.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM MST Mon Jan 13 2025
VFR conditions remain forecasted for each terminal. Still
forecasting a period of LLWS for KGLD due to a weak 850mb jet
this evening and overnight. Winds are forecast to generally be
from the WNW for the duration of the period; breezy winds
gusting around 20 knots are forecast Tuesday afternoon. A period
of stratus may impact KMCK towards the end of this TAF forecast;
however confidence in exact timing of this is still low to
medium at this time so will allude to the potential with a
SCT030 for now.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Trigg
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
523 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow is possible tonight near and north of Highway 20 in
north central Nebraska with generally less than a half inch
accumulation expected.
- Dry conditions as well as a warming trend with highs
returning to the 40s and low 50s by Thursday.
- The next chance of snow arrives Friday night and continues
into Saturday night. Light snow accumulations are possible,
mainly near and west of Highway 83.
- Behind the departing system, a very cold airmass will move
into the region this weekend. This will result in highs only from
5 to 15 above and lows from 5 below to 15 below by Sunday and
Monday. Wind chill values will approach 20 below zero or
colder.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
Across western Nebraska this afternoon, A warm front had moved
east into central Nebraska. Temperatures had warmer to near 45
at North Platte, with upper 30s to low 40s across the remainder
of the central Sandhills and southwest with westerly winds 15 to
25 mph in some locations. Even northern Nebraska had reached
into the low to mid 30s, except upper 20s at O`Neill.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
A disturbance currently located from eastern Montana into
northwestern South Dakota will track southeast this evening and
overnight. Light snow will develop along an arctic front
dropping southward tonight. The latest mesoscale models,
including the NAM nest and HRRR develop very light QPFs to a few
hundredths of an inch for areas near and north of Highway 20
from near Valentine through O`Neill. Snowfall amounts will be
light, from a dusting up to a half inch. The timeframe will
mainly be between 03Z and 09Z. The arctic front will bring lows
down to zero to five below across Boyd and northeast Holt
County. Lows in the teens across the west and southwest, where
the front will not move into.
The arctic front will retreat eastward on Tuesday with westerly
winds across the west, and light southerly across the east.
Highs will be coldest across the northeast, where O`Neill
reaches only 20. Across the southwest, highs to reach the mid to
upper 30s. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy through the
day however, ahead of a weak upper trough embedded in northerly
flow aloft. Clearing skies Tuesday night with lows from 10 to
around 15.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
An upper ridge will be in place across the Western U.S on
Wednesday. A westerly downslope wind will increase to 10 to 20
mph by afternoon with highs from the upper 30s to mid 40s.
An upper trough will drop southward across British Columbia,
Alberta, and Saskatchewan Canada. Much warmer across the Central
and Northern Plains as the upper ridge flattens out. Forecast
highs were raised a few degrees to the upper 40s to lower 50s
across much of the area. The upper trough will continue to dig
south through the Central Rockies and Northern Plains on Friday.
This will bring a cold front through in the morning, with gusty
northerly winds 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Forecast highs
mid to upper 30s north central to mid 40s south could trend
lower, if the cold front and colder air moves in quicker.
Friday night through Saturday night, light snow is possible,
mainly across the west and southwest as the upper trough and
arctic front surges southward. NBM 24 hour probabilities of an
inch or more snowfall is 40 to 50 percent for the southeast
panhandle and for Keith, Perkins, and Chase County in southwest
Nebraska. The probabilities quickly drop off east of these
areas.
An arctic airmass will persist Saturday through at least
Monday. The latest NBM is a few degrees colder with highs from
the teens to around 20 Saturday, and only 5 to 15 above Sunday
and Monday. While dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday,
bitter cold temperatures with lows as cold as 15 below Saturday
night and Sunday night will result in wind chill values
approaching 20 degrees below zero or colder.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
For the KLBF terminal: Expect mostly clear skies overnight with
increasing mid level cloudiness Tuesday morning. Ceilings will
be around 10000 FT AGL on Tuesday and will persist into the
afternoon hours. For the KVTN terminal: Skies will remain cloudy
over the next 24 hours. Ceilings will fall to 2000 to 4000 FT
AGL this evening ending up around 1500 FT AGL after 09z Tuesday.
Ceilings will increase to around 3500 FT AGL late Tuesday
morning. There will be a minor threat for light snow over
northern Nebraska late this evening into the early overnight
hours. Will handle this with a VCSH group as snow intensity is
expected to be very light and isolated in coverage.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
709 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
No major changes from the previous forecast philosophy this
evening. The fog event potential for the evening is well-captured
in the forecast for a good portion of the area. Some of the latest
guidance is indicating a more widespread fog event which required
adding more areas and time to the previous forecast`s fog extent.
Refreshed zones and coastals will be sent shortly. Have a
wonderful Monday evening!
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
A negative NAO regime across the eastern United States characterized
by continued northeastern US/Great Lakes troughing persists today.
The greatest synoptic dynamics however remain well to the north of
the region associated with a unified jet-streak across the
southeastern United States. In the eastern Gulf of Mexico, a weak
surface low attached to a cold front boundary as well as a pseudo
(meager) warm front boundary. At the same time, the axis of surface
ridging has shifted further east into the western Atlantic waters
which has resulted in winds shifting to a southeasterly component
via anti-cyclonic flow. The placement of our area between these two
features (and in the warm sector of the approaching frontal system)
will result in a warm January day across the region with above
average temperatures. Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are
forecast along the coast with slightly warmer temps in the low 80s
inland. A look at ACARS data and the 12z MFL sounding data reveal a
dry & stable atmospheric profile with very limited instability to
speak of. Outside of a few pesky low level clouds advecting into the
east coast metro area, rain chances will remain minimal today.
The main story in the short term (and really the only topic of
discussion in the short term that has this forecaster excited) will
be the fog potential overnight. While the line of showers associated
with the surface low and front will dwindle as it approaches the
region (as a weak mid-level impulse outruns it to the northeast), an
envelope of deeper low level moisture will filter into the region.
Like a head chef in a professional kitchen, the combination of
ingredients (ample low level moisture, light winds, clear skies,
cooler Gulf shelf waters) will set the stage for a master class of a
dish (in this case a classic dry season marine advection &
radiational fog setup). HREF and SREF probability guidance begin to
increase shortly after sunset along the local Gulf waters gradually
increasing in coverage and density during the overnight hours.
Uncertainty remains regarding the overall spatial extent of fog
as a lot depends on the timing of the frontal boundary across the
region. One last nugget of discussion on the fog forecast,
forecast model soundings from the HRRR and RAP tonight both
indicate the forecasted presence of an inversion settling in place
across the region. It would not be out of the realm of
possibilities for patches of dense fog to impact inland suburbs of
the east coast metro with the most dense fog remaining in place
across southern inland locations.
With the passage of the frontal boundary across the region after
daybreak, winds will veer from a southwesterly direction to a
westerly than northwesterly direction and enhance as a pressure
gradient develops between ridging over the southeastern United
States and the departing frontal boundary to the south. The timing
of the frontal passage will result in a temperature gradient for high
temps with upper 60s possible near Lake O and temperatures near 80F
across the southern extent of SoFlo.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
The cold front is expected to be south of the area over the
Straits of Florida Tuesday night, but with the zonal flow aloft
there will likely be some leftover clouds/precip lagging behind
the front. We will keep some low-end PoPs (20%) for the east
coast metro and Atlantic waters Tuesday night. Some drier air
should filter into South Florida in N-NE flow behind the front on
Wednesday as continental high pressure builds back into the
region, resulting in mainly dry conditions through Wednesday
night.
There`s some notable differences in the model guidance for the
Thursday/Thursday night time frame, particularly in the handling
of a surface wave/low pressure along the old front over the Gulf
of Mexico. Most of the guidance shows the surface wave staying
south of our area in response to a faster-moving mid-level
shortwave trough across the Gulf coast and SE United States. The
12z GFS deterministic is a notable outlier showing a stronger and
farther-north surface wave moving across the southern Florida
peninsula Thursday night and a slower-moving and sharper mid-level
shortwave. The GFS solution would lead to the likelihood of an
extensive area of precipitation moving west/east across South
Florida Thursday night, while the majority solution would probably
result in no more than spotty light precip. The general pattern
supports at least a slight chance of precipitation as there should
be a decent amount of moisture streaming east across the Gulf and
Florida peninsula north of the shallow frontal boundary and ahead
of the mid-level shortwave. Therefore, decided to hold PoPs at an
area-wide 20% for the Thursday/Thursday night time frame to
account for this uncertainty.
Drier air will once again enter the region on Friday as the
surface high to our north starts to shift east into the Atlantic
on Friday. For the upcoming weekend, models are currently showing
a broad longwave trough covering much of the CONUS and a frontal
system progressing southward into the SE U.S. and Florida by
Sunday. In response to this, surface/low-level flow should veer to
the S-SW, and the front may be close enough to our area on Sunday
to start seeing some scattered showers move into SW Florida and
around Lake Okeechobee.
As far as temperatures are concerned, cooler air will filter back
into the area behind the front Tuesday night, although the N-NE
surface/low-level trajectory will limit the strength of the cold
air advection especially compared to previous cold episodes.
Lows Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to range from upper
40s/near 50 around Lake Okeechobee to the 50s elsewhere (near 60
immediate east coast), with highs both days ranging from the upper
60s to the mid 70s. These temperatures are only about 3-5 degrees
below normal, with some decent spread in the guidance related to
the amount of cloud cover and potential surface wave development,
especially on Thursday. Similar temperatures are expected Friday
morning, with temperatures on a warming trend thereafter as winds
become southerly ahead of the next system. Friday`s highs are
forecast to be in the 70s, with highs near 80 on Saturday and
potentially lower 80s on Sunday...with lows rising into the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
Increasing confidence for sub-VFR cigs/vsbys overnight into the
morning hours. IFR/LIFR is starting to look more likely late
overnight into the early morning hours. Conditions could improve
slightly by late morning into the afternoon but still may be sub-
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
Gentle to moderate east southeasterly wind flow across the local
waters will gradually become more south southeasterly this afternoon
and then more southwesterly tonight out ahead of an approaching cold
front. There is the potential of locally dense marine fog across the
nearshore waters late tonight into early Tuesday morning. This front
will pass through the local waters during the day on Tuesday and a
few isolated showers cannot be ruled out especially over the
Atlantic waters. Behind the front, winds will increase out of the
north northeast and could create hazardous marine conditions Tuesday
night into Wednesday across the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Seas
across the Atlantic waters will remain at 3 feet or less through
Tuesday morning while Gulf seas remain at 2 feet or less during this
time frame. Wave heights will increase towards the middle of the
week across the Atlantic waters as a northeasterly swell develops.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1200 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm
Beaches through Tuesday. The risk of rip currents will increase
across all Atlantic Coast beaches for the middle of the week as a
northeasterly swell builds across the Atlantic waters behind a cold
front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 65 78 62 74 / 0 10 10 0
West Kendall 62 79 59 75 / 0 10 10 0
Opa-Locka 64 78 61 74 / 0 10 10 0
Homestead 63 79 61 74 / 0 10 10 0
Fort Lauderdale 65 76 62 73 / 0 10 20 0
N Ft Lauderdale 65 76 62 73 / 10 10 20 0
Pembroke Pines 65 79 62 76 / 0 10 20 0
West Palm Beach 65 73 61 72 / 10 10 10 0
Boca Raton 65 75 61 73 / 10 10 20 0
Naples 64 73 54 71 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EST Wednesday for
AMZ650-651-670-671.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Molleda
AVIATION...RAG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
955 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 935 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
Bright sky this evening under the full Wolf moon with just a
light brush of cirrus for I-30 and south of I-20. So, there are
lots of stars hiding in the light and a very good night of
radiational cooling that is already well underway. Our dew points
are in the mid to upper 20s everywhere, except our southern tier
of counties and parishes and continue falling with N wind. High
pressure is coming in a for a landing over S AR with 1031mb at
Greenville, MS and the 1030 contour at El Dorado and Monroe and a
lone reading at Paris. So the air mass may have already landed,
but HRRR that is still about 6 hours away as our temps get down
into the 20s.No changes to previous zone issuance expectations. It
does look like a frosty start for area commuter windshields with
these air temps, some 10 degrees below mid January averages. The
next few nights will be closer to that average as this air mass
ambles eastward through midweek. Highs linger in the 50s another
day or few. /24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
By Wednesday, a weak shortwave will begin to approach the region
as it ejects from the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains.
Meanwhile, a sfc low in the NW Gulf of Mexico will allow for some
weak moisture advection across our southernmost zones. Therefore,
slight rain chances have been included for parts of Deep East TX
and adjacent West Central LA for Wednesday afternoon into the
evening and overnight hours. Eventually, the shortwave will shift
east of the region on Thursday along with the associated sfc cold
front. This will reinforce the seasonably cool temperatures into
Thursday before a warming trend begins with returning southerly
winds on Friday.
Increasing warm and moist advection will precede the next trough
quickly working through the SW CONUS into the Southern Plains by
late week. Some timing discrepancies remain in the medium range
guidance, but the general thinking is that warm advection showers
will be possible through late week before gradually diminishing by
early in the weekend with a strong cold front shifting across the
region on Saturday. Behind the front, another Arctic air mass is
expected to invade much of the CONUS with temperatures dropping
below normal once again. As far as any additional precipitation
chances, they appear to be low for the time being although have
included low-end POP chances early next week given the strength of
the upper trough. Temperature profiles support mainly a rain/snow
mix so that is generally what has been carried in this forecast,
but a drier solution may preclude precipitation chances in future
forecasts.
/19/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 759 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
For the 14/00z TAF period...Expect VFR conditions to continue,
with passing mid and high level clouds overnight and tomorrow.
Winds will range from light/variable tonight, to ESE between 5 to
7 mph tomorrow. /20/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 225 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 30 55 35 55 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 27 54 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 22 50 27 50 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 28 55 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 25 54 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 31 57 36 55 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 29 56 34 55 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 32 57 39 54 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...20