Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RUC13" "RUC" "RR" received at GSD on 12/29/24
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
459 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 440 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2024
- Breezy west to northwest winds continue this weekend along and
east of the central mountain chain. Otherwise tranquil weather
will prevail around the region.
- Strong west winds Monday will create hazardous crosswinds and
patchy blowing dust that may reduce visibility at times.
- Critical fire weather conditions in the eastern plains Monday
afternoon will make for easier fire starts.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2024
Temperatures continue well above normal over the weekend, with
temperatures nearing record highs for several locations along the
eastern plains on Sunday and Monday. The main area of concern over
the next several days will be strong winds over eastern New Mexico,
leading to critical fire weather conditions on Monday. Winds
diminish after Monday, and temperatures drop to near seasonal
averages on Tuesday and Wednesday as a couple of backdoor fronts
push through eastern New Mexico. Conditions look to remain dry and
temperatures look to warm back up by the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 325 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2024
West-northwest flow will continue to dominate the wind regime for the
next several days, with a shortwave trough passing through the
intermountain west on Monday notching up wind speeds. Breezy
conditions on Sunday will turn to stronger winds on Monday for the
central mountain chain and central and northeast highlands, with
gusts up to 50 mph. A 300mb jet of about 140kts will be over
northern New Mexico, and a mid-level speed max of about 75 kts will
be situated over northeast New Mexico. A surface low of about 995-
997 mb will deepen over central Oklahoma by the afternoon hours.
This set up will lead to widespread gusty winds for the eastern half
of the state and into the Great Plains through monday evening. The
timing of the upper and mid level jets over New Mexico look to be
during the morning hours on Monday. The northern mountains and
northeast plains could see 30+ mph gusts before sunrise, with
stronger winds then shifting to the central plains by mid-day as the
trough moves through and daytime heating allowing for stronger winds
to mix down. Take caution while driving on Monday, as there will be
hazardous crosswinds for motorists driving along N-S oriented
roadways, as well as a potential for patchy blowing dust reducing
visibilities along the central and eastern plains.
Another concern, in association with these strong winds, will be
critical fire weather conditions for the eastern plains of New
Mexico. Warm and dry conditions with temperatures in the upper 60s
and dewpoints in the low teens, in conjunction with gusts 35+ mph on
Monday, greatly increase the risk of fire. As a result, a fire
weather watch has been issued for the eastern plains for Monday
afternoon.
Other than winds, weather will be warm and dry for the short term.
500mb heights between 574 and 580 dm over New Mexico will help bump
temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above average for this time of year
throughout the state. Downsloping winds will further increase high
temperatures for the eastern plains with several locations nearing
record high temperatures on Sunday. Temperatures cool throughout the
western half of the state on Monday as the shortwave trough pushes
through, but continued downsloping winds will once again create near
record highs for the southeast plains.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2024
As westerly winds die down, a backdoor cold front will sweep through
eastern New Mexico on Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another shortwave
will dig in through the Four Corners on Tuesday afternoon, with
500mb heights dropping to around 560dm for most of the state. This
will result in a brief cool down, with high temperatures 15 to 20
degrees below those observed on Monday for the eastern NM. Guidance
does hint at some light snowfall for the northern mountains, but the
trough passage looks to be fairly dry, so any precipitation looks to
be isolated to the mountains along the CO-NM border. As this
shortwaves moves on east, it will push another backdoor through the
eastern plains on Wednesday morning, keeping high temperatures below
normal once again.
Towards the end of the week, another shortwave looks to clip the
northern part of the state and bring some breezy conditions for the
central mountains and central highlands, as well as another backdoor
on Friday. Currently, most ensemble guidance is in agreement of
ridging building back up for the Friday through Saturday period,
keeping conditions warmer and drier, but some guidance is hinting at
a developing system towards the end of the weekend which could bring
precipitation back into the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 440 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2024
High (90%) confidence in VFR prevailing at all terminals over the
next 24 hours. Brisk NW flow at ridge-top levels (e. g., ~50KT at
700mb, per latest RAP analysis) causing some reported mountain
wave activity in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo range, with a
Center Weather Advisory from ZAB currently in effect. Mid-level
flow gradually veers more WNW over the next 24 hours but remains
at similar magnitude. This could lead to some LLWS near KLVS
overnight, but confidence only low-to-moderate (30%) at this time,
as uncertainty remains about extent of surface wind decoupling.
Both RAP forecast soundings and blended LLWS guidance suggest
higher confidence for LLWS at KROW, so have included it for late
tonight into Sunday morning. Gusty winds develop at KGUP after 21Z
Sunday in advance of a disturbance in the broader NW flow.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2024
An active fire weather pattern takes hold Sunday through Monday,
peaking in strength Monday afternoon when critical fire weather
conditions are expected to develop across a large swath of the
eastern plains of NM. Well above normal warmth reaching record
levels for some spots will be present Sunday afternoon alongside
breezy to locally windy westerly to northwesterly winds. Elevated
fire weather conditions will be present. Winds strengthen
considerably late Sunday night thru Monday as an upper level storm
system clips northeastern NM and southeastern CO. Strong
WNW to NW winds will mix down to the surface along and lee of the
central mountain chain thru the day. These winds subside by the
evening, ending critical fire weather concerns.
A backdoor cold front will swing southward from CO Tuesday dropping
highs back below normal alongside a northeasterly to easterly wind
shift. Relatively warmer weather will remain thru central and
western NM alongside persisting fair to good ventilation.
Another quick-hitting storm system clips northeastern NM late
Tuesday bringing a Pacific cold front across the state. Little if
any winter precipitation will reach the northern mountains from this
system. High pressure ridging takes hold after Wednesday allowing
for a warming trend, lighter winds, and poor ventilation.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 25 54 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 13 53 16 49 / 0 0 0 0
Cuba............................ 26 56 26 48 / 0 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 19 61 21 54 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 23 58 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 20 62 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 25 63 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 33 65 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
Datil........................... 27 63 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
Reserve......................... 23 63 21 66 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 30 65 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 20 46 18 43 / 0 0 0 0
Los Alamos...................... 29 57 34 48 / 0 0 0 0
Pecos........................... 31 56 31 50 / 0 0 0 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 24 50 27 45 / 0 0 0 0
Red River....................... 20 43 23 34 / 0 0 0 0
Angel Fire...................... 16 49 21 41 / 0 0 0 0
Taos............................ 20 53 23 48 / 0 0 0 0
Mora............................ 29 58 29 46 / 0 0 0 0
Espanola........................ 25 59 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe........................ 31 55 31 51 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 27 57 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 34 59 38 56 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 31 60 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 29 62 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 30 60 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
Belen........................... 27 63 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 30 61 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 28 62 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 30 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 28 63 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 32 60 36 53 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 29 59 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 31 67 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 31 56 33 49 / 0 0 0 0
Tijeras......................... 32 58 35 51 / 0 0 0 0
Edgewood........................ 28 58 32 52 / 0 0 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 24 61 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 30 56 31 51 / 0 0 0 0
Mountainair..................... 29 60 34 55 / 0 0 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 29 61 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 37 63 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 38 61 41 57 / 0 0 0 0
Capulin......................... 30 60 33 52 / 0 0 0 0
Raton........................... 29 62 33 55 / 0 0 0 0
Springer........................ 25 66 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 31 63 35 55 / 0 0 0 0
Clayton......................... 35 65 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
Roy............................. 30 67 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
Conchas......................... 31 70 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 38 68 42 63 / 0 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 32 70 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 36 71 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
Portales........................ 36 71 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 38 73 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 37 75 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 44 73 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
Elk............................. 43 71 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
for NMZ104-126.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...53-Schroeder
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
836 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heavier mountain snows continue today with an additional wave
Sunday evening into Monday.
- Strong winds expected to continue today and tonight, tapering
off a tad on Sunday. Gusts upwards of 60 MPH likely (80-90%) in
the high country during this time frame. Even stronger and more
widespread winds and gusts on Monday exceeding 60 MPH.
- Windy Monday with at least elevated if not critical fire weather
concerns. Relatively high probabilities (>50% chance) of
reaching high wind criteria over portions of the foothills and
plains.
- A weak disturbance or two in northwest flow Tuesday into
Wednesday could bring a couple light snow showers, favoring the
mountains.
- Colder temperatures are expected for New Year`s Eve and start to
2025 (Wednesday). Then gradual warming again the end of next
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 822 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2024
Conditions are progressing as expected in the high country with
snowfall gradually filling in across higher elevations. Water
vapor imagery shows deeper moisture upstream that will enter our
forecast area overnight and sustain light to moderate snow in the
mountains. Did introduce a few rain showers into the forecast for
our north/northeast plains for the next few hours, in association
with the upper level shortwave across the northern US plains.
Additionally, opted for a rather unorthodox evening update to our
high wind headlines given the latest trends in hi-res guidance for
Monday. Will leave the finer details up to the night shift to
discuss, but multiple factors (including very strong QG descent,
jet dynamics, weak 700-500mb wind shear, and indications of an
inversion aloft) suggest increased potential for damaging winds
meeting high wind criteria for our central/northern foothills and
adjacent lower elevations. This is reflected in some eye-catching
wind gusts in a few of the most recent model runs, with the HRRR
leading the pack. These areas are therefore now included in the
High Wind Watch for Monday to capture this possibility.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 222 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2024
Today...The orientation of the upper level jet isn`t great for
orographics across a majority of our mountains and the stream is a
fairly warm stream so snow ratios are pretty wet. That being said,
there is quite a bit of moisture upstream that needs to move through
the region so we still hold onto the warning across the northern
mountains and advisory south and east...still have another 12-hours
to go and enhanced returns are starting to fill back in on the
regional radar scope upstream. Expect an additional 12-20 inches in
the northern mountains with 6-10 across the central mountains. Gusty
winds, pushing 60 MPH, still a good bet through much of the evening
and overnight hours, mainly above 10kft with 30-40 MPH gusts between
7kft and 10kft.
Sunday...As this current wave and pacific jet stream through we
should start to see weak ridging and weak subsidence take over
putting an end to much of the mountain snowfall...for a few hours at
least. The footprint of the stronger winds is shunted back to the
west, mainly above 10 kft, leaving much of the region on the calmer
side. We keep temperatures elevated on Sunday though as mentioned
before standing mountain waves may knock off a few degrees across
the urban corridor and adjacent foothills. Either way we`re above
seasonal temperatures again.
The next wave, tied to an even stronger pacific jet, begins to
impact the region later Sunday evening through much of the day
Monday. A 140-150 knot upper level jet streak puts much of our
region in the left exit region and the nearly zonal flow will really
help to crank out moisture. Combine the moisture, strong westerly
upslope and a bora type front wind event, Monday will see impacts
from not only heavy mountain snows, but also fire weather and high
winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /Sunday night through Saturday/...
Issued at 222 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2024
As mentioned above, there is a lot going on to start the long
term forecast period. The highlights for Monday involve winter,
wind, and fire weather headlines.
Beginning with the winter portion...
Multiple rounds of snow will continue to impact the northern
Colorado mountains. With an upper-level trough bringing another
stream of Pacific moisture into the high country, and the
aforementioned jet streak providing ample lift Sunday night and
through the day Monday, we have issued an additional Winter Storm
Warning for the Park and Gore Ranges from 8PM Sunday through 5PM
Monday, with additional snow accumulations between 8 and 12
inches possible. Additionally, a Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for the same time for the rest of the northern/central
mountains where another 3 to 7 inches of snow will be possible
Monday. Strong winds are expected with this system with gusts to
70 mph possible that will lead to reduced visibilities due to
blowing snow.
Unfortunately, the moisture seems to be anchored to the
mountains, but there is a chance some of it makes its way down
into the foothills and northern plains, however, any that does
will be light.
Winds...
With a stable layer near ridgetop, 40+ kt cross-barrier flow, and
cold air advection, a bora wind event is expected. We have issued
a High Wind Watch for northwest winds of 30-40 kts with gusts up
to 60 mph for our eastern plains. Winds are expected to pick up
along the northern border early Monday morning before shifting
south by late morning. At this time, we have left out wind
headlines for our mountains and foothills, however, the latest run
of the HRRR has a significant uptick in wind gusts along the
eastern slopes of the Front Range Mountains (gusts to 100mph), we
will hold off on issuing as this seems to be an outlier, but will
monitor trends as new guidance comes out and assess as needed. It
should be noted, that with dry soils across our eastern plains,
these strong winds could lead to patches of blowing dust that
could lead to reduced visibilities at times.
Fire...
With these strong winds comes heightened fire weather concerns.
While relative humidities are forecast to remain above 30% for the
majority of the forecast area, these strong winds and
compressional warming off the Cheyenne Ridge and Front Range
Mountains will lower relative humidities to near critical levels
for areas along the southern foothills, Urban Corridor, metro
Denver, and southern plains. For this reason, we have issued a
Fire Weather Watch for these locations from Monday morning through
the afternoon. On top of the strong winds, fuels are currently at
critical status across our lower elevations (roughly 7,500` and
below), if a fire were to start, rapid fire spread would be
likely. Stay tuned for updated highlights in the coming forecast
packages.
After Monday, things begin to calm down. There will be another
quick few shots of mountain snow showers as a few weak
disturbances pass through Tuesday and Wednesday into Thursday. We
are still on track for a cooler than average New Year`s Day and
for upper-level ridging to build back in across the western US
that will bring a return of warmer and drier conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday/...
Issued at 422 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2024
All terminals east of the mtns will be VFR through the TAF period.
Wind speeds will be relatively light through the next 24-36 hours,
particularly for KAPA/KDEN, and with that comes greater
uncertainty as far as wind directions. There`s potential for a
brief window of winds from the ENE all the way to SSE later this
evening at KDEN, but guidance is very mixed and with speeds
expected to remain below 10 kts, will extend the current VRB a few
more hours. Southerly drainage flow should prevail overnight and
into Sun AM. Direction uncertainty increases again for Sun PM,
especially 19-23Z will mixed signals for positioning of a weak
Denver cyclone, but generally favors some form of a southerly
component much of the day.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM MST Sat Dec 28 2024
Critical fire weather conditions may develop Monday due to strong,
gusty winds. Humidity levels will stay above traditional critical
thresholds, but the magnitude of winds (gusts 45-60 mph likely
across all of the foothills and plains) and recent dryness/lack of
snow cover means high grassland fire danger. Have issued a Fire
Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for the
southern foothills, Urban Corridor, metro Denver, and southern
plains. Stay posted for potential highlight changes.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Sunday for COZ031.
Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM Sunday to 5 PM MST Monday for
COZ031.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Sunday for COZ033-034.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 5 PM MST Monday for
COZ033-034.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
for COZ216-238>240-245>247.
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon
for COZ035-038-039.
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon
for COZ042>044-048.
High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
COZ045>047-049>051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Rodriguez
SHORT TERM...Heavener
LONG TERM...Bonner
AVIATION...Rodriguez
FIRE WEATHER...Bonner
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
716 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The wedge front begins to move west and break this
evening and tonight, bringing warmer and wetter conditions into
Sunday. Sunday will be warmer and breezy with showers and
thunderstorms likely along and ahead of an approaching cold
front, with some severe thunderstorms possible. High pressure
builds in behind the front for Monday, before the next chance of
rain arrives on Tuesday. Cooler and drier conditions follow for
the mid to late week period.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):
- Increasing low level moisture and the residual wedge front
will continue the drizzly dreary conditions this evening and
overnight.
- Some dense fog is possible through early Sunday.
The sharp shortwave that will bring Sunday`s severe risk is
still well to our west across the ARK-LA-TEX as of 8pm. Ahead
of this system, increasing low level moisture and the residual
wedge boundary in the Midlands will keep the drizzle and light
rain overnight. The wedge boundary has shifted northwestward,
with Columbia now in the 60`s with a very moist dew points also
in the 60`s; the boundary looks to be across McCormick,
Newberry and then up through Chester, York coutnies. South and
east of the boundary, dew points are very high (above any
guidance), sitting in the mid 60`s in Orangeburg, Barnwell, and
Bamberg. The short term impact of this is dense fog potential
overnight, but this may also play a role in Sunday`s severe
potential as this low level moisture surges northwest into early
Sunday. Recalibrating the HREF trends with current obs, the
wedge boundary should lift into the Upstate and allow 60+ F dew
points to overspread basically the entire forecast area by 7am
as the rapidly strengthening 850mb pushes in early Sunday
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):
- A line of shower-storms will push through in the morning and
early afternoon. Some thunderstorms could become strong to
severe, with damaging winds as the primary threat. A few brief
tornadoes are also possible.
- Warmer and breezy the rest of Sunday with a Lake Wind Advisory
in effect from 7am until 3pm.
Sunday and Sunday Night: The ingredients for an active weather day
are present across the forecast area. The latest Day 2 SPC SWO
maintains a Slight (2/5) risk for severe weather across the entire
CWA, with much of the area in a 5% Tornado risk. These probabilities
are driven by the approach of a potent negatively tilted trough and
the associated surface cyclone and attendant cold front, which will
move through the FA during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Some members of the guidance suite continue to suggest there will be
two rounds of convection, the first will be the remnant showers and
thunderstorms currently moving through eastern Texas and Louisiana
with a second round, potentially stronger round, accompanying the
cold front. Confidence is high that the first round of convection
will be moving into our western counties during the early to mid
morning hours. The main deterrent for severe weather with this line
will be the lack of instability, which is unsurprising considering
the time of day and the retreating wedge. The second line arrives in
the afternoon, but there is uncertainty regarding how much
instability can develop in the break between the first line and the
second. The 12Z HRRR is the most bullish on the scenario of a strong
secondary line of convection, while other HREF members don`t
materialize it at all or show it much weaker. Considering the
convective mode should mostly be linear in nature, damaging winds
will be the primary severe hazard with any thunderstorms that
develop. If the HRRR solution is correct, a few brief tornadoes
cannot be ruled out, especially should any discrete cells develop.
Looking at the HREF, it appears the greatest threat for severe
weather with the second line, should it materialize, will be south
and east of I-20 where the probability of CAPE in excess of 500 J/kg
and 0-6km shear in excess of 30 knots is highest. In summary, while
confidence in scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms is
high, 70 to 90 percent, confidence in severe weather is lower and
will be highly conditional.
Outside of the convective potential, Sunday should be 5-10 degrees
warmer than today, with above normal daytime temperatures expected
as the wedge should fully retreat from the region. It will be breezy
as well, especially on area lakes, prompting the issuance of a Lake
Wind Advisory from 7am until 3pm tomorrow. Rain chances should end
quickly in the evening as the cold front clears the forecast area,
followed by partial clearing at night.
Monday and Monday Night: A warm and dry day is expected as the air
mass behind the cold front is not much cooler. Daytime temperatures
remain above normal and are similar to Sunday in most locations.
Mainly clear skies and light winds at the start of the night will
likely result in slightly cooler overnight lows, however it looks
like clouds associated with the next storm system will arrive prior
to daybreak Tuesday, limiting radiational cooling and resulting in
above normal low temperatures.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Another shortwave and storm system will
pass to our north. This will result in a chance of rain, mainly
across the Northern Midlands where the best lift will be located.
The Southern Midlands and CSRA may remain dry on Tuesday, resulting
in warmer daytime temperatures there. A cooler air mass moves in
behind this system, but temperatures Tuesday Night should still be
above seasonal values for the end of December.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):
- Cooling trend follows for the mid to late week period.
Confidence is high regarding the pattern during the opening days of
2025. High pressure emerges from the Intermountain West on
Wednesday, moving overhead on Friday. This will result in a period
of dry weather with seasonal temperatures Wednesday through Friday.
The next chance of precipitation should hold off until late next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence in LIFR/IFR restrictions again dominating the
period with improvement very late.
Wedge continues to cause highly variable conditions across the
area with MVFR to VFR at CAE/CUB/OGB and LIFR at AGS/DNL. Over
the next several hours expect the wedge boundary to slide a bit
more westward and allow conditions at AGS/DNL to improve high
end IFR with scattered showers persisting at all terminals.
Toward daybreak winds will become southeasterly while low level
winds quickly increase resulting in LLWS from 07z through the
end of the period. Main focus for the period will be potential
for convection moving into the area during the morning hours.
Have remained with TSRA at all terminals and will continue to
monitor strong to severe thunderstorm potential along with
convective gusts to 40s mph and adjust as confidence improves.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Ceiling and visibility restrictions
rapidly improving to VFR Sunday evening. Restrictions possible
Tuesday mainly at CAE/CUB as the next system rapidly moves
through the region.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EST Sunday for SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EST Sunday for GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1016 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
* Foggy, then mild and wet Sunday.
* Still mild but mainly dry on Monday.
* More wet weather Tuesday.
* Colder weather will return for the second half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Fog is expanding steadily into the rest of the CWA. The highest
elevations of the Laurels are still without, but the wind is
getting lighter, and T getting closer to Td. Have expanded the
DFA to all but Warren, Cambria and Somerset Cos. They may need
to be added eventually, as well. New/00Z NAM continues to bring
a band of showers across from S to N later tonight as lift
north of the very strong LLJet makes the precip happen. HRRR and
RAP agree. Feel confident leaving the high PoPs in for the
overnight.
Prev...
Lots of low clouds cover the eastern 2/3rds of the CWA, and they
are lowering a bit. There are already patches of dense fog
around, mainly where the clouds hit the hill tops, but MDT, LNS,
SEG are also having the visby go down. The light wind and
plentiful moisture trapped under the inversion will make it easy
for fog to expand and get thicker. Have issued a dense fog
advisory for much of the area, and expect to have to expand it
through the evening, or later tonight. Deep mixing is not
really expected until later in the morning.
Western locations are likely wondering what all the fuss is
about regarding fog. But, their mainly clear (high clouds only
right now) condition will get cloudier and they, too, should
have fog by morning. The clear sky and higher dewpoints over
that way make it an almost certainty. But, they do have some
wind at this time.
The first part of the night will feature a gradual expansion
northward of drizzle as the clouds thicken up (along with the
fog). Later, forcing aloft should increase and perhaps make some
steadier rain/larger drops. That may actually improve the
visibilities, but the better bet for now is fog to continue.
Temps are abnormally high for the west right now, and they might
end up staying milder than record maxi-mins. JST needs to stay
aoa 45F (2019) and BFD 43F (1984).
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Trend has been for a bit less QPF now for Sunday.
Also SPC did trim outlook out of our far western areas.
Main change I made was to up temperatures a bit Sunday into
Monday, given the gusty southwest flow expected to develop
on Sunday.
Some of the showers will likely be on the heavy side later
Sunday, but the system still looks like it will move along
through our area. While the low tracks to the west, before
reforming to the east, dynamics and low low moisture would
support a small chance for rumble of thunder.
Most of Monday and the first part of Tuesday look dry, with
temperatures warmer than normal.
Earlier information below.
As the surge of milder air begins to work on low-level lapse
rates, southerly wind gusts of 30-40 mph may develop on some of
the ridge tops and also areas where southerly winds downslope.
Locally heavy downpours are also anticipated Sunday afternoon
and evening, as precipitable water values surge upwards of 1.3"
for southern sections of the Commonwealth, with these values in
the 90th+ percentile for late December.
Despite locally heavy rainfall, long-term dryness for many
areas, plus lack of convection and enhanced rates, are expected
to keep this situation manageable from a hydro perspective.
By later Sunday night and Monday, as an initial cold front
sweeps across the region, steadier rain will come to an end.
Temperatures will be cooler, but not yet cold (that waits for
later in the week).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level ridging attempts to build in behind a departing
shortwave Monday night which will allow for a brief dry period,
but rain chances quickly increase again late Tue as weakening
surface low tracks through the region. The latest ensemble runs
have trended downward in terms of QPF amounts; however,
widespread rain still appears likely for much of Tuesday night.
Much colder air will begin working its way in from the west as
this system exits the region and may allow for some snow to mix
in across the northern and western mountains Wednesday morning.
Temperatures trend lower towards the end of the week with most
locations seeing highs around 5 degrees below normal by
Thursday. A tight pressure gradient behind the departing low
will make for a breezy day on Thursday with gusts of 30 to 40
mph across the Alleghenies. West-northwest flow will also
support lake effect and upslope snow showers through the end of
the week. A quick look at temperature trends beyond Friday
indicates the cold temperatures are likely to stick around this
weekend and into next week as a strong ridge is progged to build
over the western US, leaving the Ohio Valley and Mid- Atlantic
region with a deep digging trough over the region next week.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread fog has developed across Central PA and will continue
to lead to IFR/LIFR restrictions through the night for sites
east of BFD and JST. Model soundings suggest that the low level
moisture will eventually make it to those two sites as well, but
there is some uncertainty as to the exact timing of when
restrictions develop and how low CIGs/VSBY get before 06Z.
After 06Z, light rain will begin moving into the region ahead of
a deep low pressure system that will track to the west of the
region on Sunday. There is high confidence in IFR/LIFR
conditions area-wide once the rain moves in. A strong 50+ kt
southerly 850mb jet will build across the region on Sunday and
create low-level wind shear concerns. Even with 20 to 30kt
surface wind gusts expected, speed shear will be a concern.
Models still indicate that very weak elevated instability will
work its way into southwestern parts of Central PA (JST and
AOO) during the late afternoon which could allow for a few
lightning strikes, but confidence is low.
Outlook...
Mon...Rain chances decrease west-to-east late with lingering
rain possible; gusty west winds gradually taper off.
Tue...Increasing clouds with rain expected again late.
Wed...Rain continuing with snow mixing in west of UNV; gusty
west winds.
Thu...Restrictions at JST and BFD in -SHSN; gusty west winds.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for PAZ005-006-
010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Martin
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Martin
LONG TERM...Bauco/Bowen
AVIATION...Banghoff/Bauco
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
952 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance for patchy dense fog overnight into Sunday morning for
the Red River Valley and northwestern and west central
Minnesota.
- Confidence is increasing on very cold wind chills mid next
week for portions of eastern North Dakota.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
Patchy fog has developed along the international border in ND
this evening. A dense fog advisory has been issued for some
Lakes country counties in MN as there is better confidence in
dense fog developing there into tomorrow morning. Otherwise,
forecast remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 651 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
Clouds are creeping in from the west, and fog is encroaching in
the east this evening. More dense fog is possible, especially
in the MN counties of our area, but widespread patchy fog is
also possible across the area. Forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
...Synopsis...
Zonal flow continues through the remainder of today and tomorrow
followed by northwesterly flow as a Hudson Bay low develops early
next week. Under the zonal flow we will continue to have some low
level saturation and light and variable winds. This brings another
round of patchy dense fog to portions of the region. Flow
transitions to northwesterly end of the weekend and early next week
bringing a quick clipper system to western North Dakota and South
Dakota. A brief rain/snow mix or light snow shower may be possible
late Monday for portions of Sargent county. Cold air advection moves
down from Canada out of the NW flow bringing very cold wind chills
by mid week to portions of eastern North Dakota. Ensembles have
hinted at another clipper type system moving out of the
northwesterly flow end of the work week and into the following
weekend. However, predictability is low and so is confidence in any
development, track, and strength of said system.
...Patchy Dense Fog...
Current satellite has a broad area of clearing in eastern North
Dakota and northwestern/west central Minnesota bringing plentiful
sunshine and warmer temperatures. Had to increase highs for the day
into the upper 30s, with pockets of low to mid 40s where snowpack is
shallower. Low level saturation lingers through the area today and
into the evening hours helping to produce further fog chances for
the area. Winds will be light and variable overnight and into the
morning hours Sunday for areas east of the Sheyenne River Valley and
Devils Lake Basin. Confidence is low on how widespread fog may get,
but HREF and HRRR guidance continues to show the chance for patchy
dense fog for the Red River Valley points eastward overnight. This
will all be dependent on the depth of low level saturation, winds,
and how long the clearing lasts. Satellite does show high level
clouds shifting east northeast into the forecast area which may help
reduce fog chances. None the less, there is a chance for patchy
dense fog overnight which may reduce visibilities down to quarter of
a miles or less.
...Colder Temperatures...
Temperatures drop quickly in areas of clearing overnight, with
portions of the Devils Lake Basin hitting the low to mid teens.
Untreated surfaces may refreeze quickly overnight and create slick
conditions at times for Sunday morning.
Colder temperatures are on the horizon as cold air advection pools
down from Canada Monday onward. A quick clipper system moves through
Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning bringing light snow shower
chances to portions of north central Minnesota. It also brings
stronger cold air advection helping to drop morning lows Thursday
and Friday into the negative single digits and negative teens.
Coldest temperatures will be where snowpack is deeper (Devils Lake
Basin through International Border). High temperatures end of the
week range from the single digits in the north and the lower teens
for areas where snow cover is shallower (southern Red River Valley).
Chances increase for very cold wind chills in the Devils Lake Basin
mid to late next week. We will continue to monitor the cold
temperatures arriving for the new year.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
Main concerns into the Sunday TAF period are the ceilings
lowering right around sunrise as fog settles back in tonight.
Expect reduced visibilities as low as 1/2sm and ceilings could
possibly get in the LIFR category briefly. Winds will be light
and variable through the TAF period.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MNZ016-017-023-
024-028-031-032.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AH
DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...AH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
948 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
New Information added to update section
.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
Fog is rapidly developing across central Wisconsin this evening.
HREF and mesoscale models continue to show a strong signal for
dense fog to spread across most of the rest of the area through
the evening hours. The signal for dense fog is not as strong
across the far northeast (Oconto, Marinette, and Door counties).
Therefore, will issue a Dense Fog Advisory for most of the area as
we are starting to see the fog developing per the previous model
runs. If the fog makes it to the far northeast later tonight will
add the remaining counties to the advisory as needed. Once the fog
develops the models gradually dissipate the fog Sunday morning,
with much of the fog dissipated around noon. Although the fog
could linger across the Fox Valley into the early afternoon, will
keep noon as an expiration time and let subsequent shifts adjust
the timing as necessary. The fog itself could become freezing fog
as temperatures drop below freezing, which could cause slick
roadways overnight.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of dense freezing fog are possible late tonight into
Sunday morning, especially in central and north-central
Wisconsin. In addition to visibility reduced to less than one-
half mile, untreated roads, bridges and overpasses could become
slippery. Disruptions to air travel are possible.
- Much colder air will return to Wisconsin late next week with
sub zero wind chills expected Thursday, Friday and Saturday
nights.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
Short Term...Tonight and Sunday
Latest RAP analysis shows a low pressure system lifting north over
Lake Superior this afternoon. Any light lingering precipitation
across northern WI should come to an end late this afternoon as the
low continues to lift away from the area. The departure of the low
should also allow clouds to scatter out across much of the region
retuning sunshine to the area for the fist time in several days.
The main focus for the remainder of the short-term is possible
fog/freezing fog develop tonight into Sunday morning. With westerly
winds diminishing this evening and ample low-level moisture from
last night/today`s rain. Clearing skies should allow temperatures
to easily fall past cross over temperatures. HREF probs also support
fog development with a swath of 70-80% chances for visibilities less
than 1/2 mile from around midnight through Sunday morning. Freezing
fog looks most likely across northern and central WI where temps are
forecast to fall into the middle 20s. This may result in a few
slippery spots on untreated roads, bridges, or sidewalks Sunday
morning. There is more uncertainty with when fog lift and become low-
clouds Sunday as forecast soundings show a rather sharp inversion
just off the surface. The RAP is more conservative end of the
spectrum with fog lingering into Sunday afternoon across central and
east-central WI, while the HRRR shows the fog clearing from much of
the region by noon.
Once the fog does clear Sunday a weak-mid level ridge developing
over the region should bring quiet weather for the remainder of the
day. There is a low-end chance (10-15%) for a period of light along
the lakeshore Sunday afternoon as a low lifts northeast through the
Ohio Valley, but expect much of the precip with this system to miss
the forecast area.
Long Term...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Much colder weather will return to Wisconsin by the end of next
week as the upper jet pattern shifts from nearly zonal flow to the
northwest. The transition should begin on New Year`s Day, as
temperatures return to normal, and become gradually colder after
that.
The models are in agreement that there will be some kind of winter
storm moving from Southern Colorado to Lake Michigan around the 5th,
that should bring snow to our area, and then a blast of arctic air
after it departs. The ECMWF has an almost classic Colorado low moving
towards Chicago, while the GFS has more of a split upper flow and less
intense surface low.
Sub zero wind chills are expected next Thursday, Friday and Saturday
nights. Even colder wind chills are possible the following week
if the current models are correct.
&&
.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 523 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
CIGs varied between VFR across much of central and east-central
Wisconsin with IFR stratus across north-central Wisconsin.
Conditions tonight will be favorable for fog/freezing fog to
develop at all TAF sites beginning around 04Z/10PM as westerly
winds diminish and become calm overnight. Temperatures tonight are
expected to fall below freezing away from Lake Michigan, so have
freezing fog in all the TAFs except for MTW, where surface
temperatures should remain the middle 30s. There is uncertainty
with when fog might lift Sunday, but do expect IFR/MVFR vsbys to
linger through much of the morning, and into the early afternoon
hours, especially at the eastern TAF sites.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Sunday for WIZ005-010>012-
018>020-030-031-035>040-045-048>050.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........Kurimski
DISCUSSION.....GK/RDM
AVIATION.......Kurimski
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
524 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain will overspread much of central Illinois east of the
Illinois River tonight into Sunday. Storm total rainfall will be
greatest along/east of I-57 where the 12z HREF shows a 70-100%
for greater than 1 inch.
- Much above normal temperatures will continue through Monday
before a strong cold front passes and causes readings to drop
below normal into the 20s by the end of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 211 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
A vigorous short-wave trough evident on 19z/1pm water vapor
imagery over northern Texas will pivot northeastward over the
next 24 hours...reaching northern Indiana/Ohio by Sunday evening.
Thanks to copious Gulf of Mexico moisture flowing northward and an
unstable airmass, a significant severe weather event is currently
unfolding across the lower Mississippi River Valley. While the
severe activity will remain well south of central Illinois
tonight, widespread showers will overspread much of the KILX CWA
later this evening through at least midday Sunday. 12z models are
in relatively good agreement concerning the time of arrival and
areal coverage of the precip...with consensus suggesting the most
widespread/consistent showers occurring along/east of the I-55
corridor. Areas further west across the Illinois River Valley will
likely remain mostly dry.
Rainfall amounts will vary greatly from west to east across central
Illinois. While some locations along/west of the Illinois River will
see zero rainfall, 12z HREF shows a 70-100% chance for greater than
1 inch along/east of I-57. A low probability (10-20% chance) for
greater than 2 inches exists along/southeast of a Robinson to Olney
line. The 18z HRRR even shows amounts approaching 3 inches, but
think this may be a bit overdone given the scope of the severe event
happening upstream which may tend to limit northward moisture transport
somewhat. The official forecast features totals of 1-1.50 along/east
of I-57...with amounts approaching 2 inches along/southeast of a
Robinson to Olney line.
Rain will be ongoing Sunday morning, then will gradually diminish
from west to east during the afternoon. While the steadiest showers
will shift into the Great Lakes/Indiana as the day progresses, cannot
rule out a few stray light showers or drizzle through the afternoon
and even into Sunday evening as the short- wave lifts into
Michigan.
Barnes
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
Short-wave ridging will develop in the wake of the Sunday system,
resulting in a mild and dry day on Monday with highs in the upper
40s and lower 50s. Meanwhile the next wave currently off the
Pacific Northwest coast will quickly approach from the west,
spreading another round of rain across central Illinois Monday
night into Tuesday. As colder air begins to arrive in the wake of
this wave, a brief rain/snow mix may develop along/north of I-72
as the precip ends Tuesday afternoon and evening.
12z Dec 28 models continue to indicate a significant chunk of the
bitterly cold airmass just north of Alaska breaking loose and
surging southeastward into the Midwest by the middle and end of
next week. ECMWF shows 850mb temps dropping into the -10C to -15C
range Wednesday through Saturday, resulting in a return to below
normal highs in the 20s by the end of the forecast period.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
A strong low pressure system tracking northeast through the lower
Ohio Valley, will spread IFR ceilings north across the central IL
terminals tonight, along with RA and MVFR to IFR visibilities,
primarily from KSPI-KBMI and points southeast. Northeast winds
will increase overnight, veering northwest toward daybreak, with
highest gusts of 20-30 kt occuring at KDEC-KCMI. -RA will diminish
from the west on Sunday, finally clearing out of KCMI around mid
afternoon. Ceilings are forecast to rise to MVFR levels as the
rain diminishes.
25
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
647 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild temperatures continue through Monday, returning to near
normal by New Year`s Day onward.
- Accumulating lake effect snow is likely (>70% chance) in the
west becoming northwest wind snow belts New Year`s Day through
at least Friday, which could lead to difficult travel
conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Issued at 123 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
Water vapor and RAP analysis highlight a 1002mb surface low lifting
northeast through Lake Superior as a mid-upper level shortwave
presses north. Rain associated with this has continued today,
gradually following the surface low. Light reflectivities have been
noted on KMQT radar, so suspect additional rainfall for most today
has been 0.25 inches or less. Upstream radars KDLH/KGRB shows the
back edge of the rain approximately along a line from Ely Minnesota,
to the Bayfield Peninsula and Tomahawk in Wisconsin, to near
Menominee Michigan. Further upstream, weak ridging and drier air has
supported clear skies expanding northeast through central/southern
Minnesota and Wisconsin. The warm airmass over the region alongside
the abundant moisture has supported temperatures and dewpoints in
the 30s to low 40s. There is still some patchy fog out there, but
visibility has improved greatly through the day. For the remainder
of the afternoon and through 0z this evening, rain, possibily mixed
with some snow, will continue lifting northeast and the drier air
will continue lifting into the area. Temperatures may drop some
after sunset, but are still remain above freezing in this period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 407 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
Starting tonight, the mid level trough will be negatively tilted
over Lake Superior and northern Ontario with the associated sfc low
centered north of central Lake Superior. To the south, another
trough responsible for today`s severe weather in the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeastern U.S. is beginning to lift
northeast. This will move toward the Great Lakes and merge with a
shortwave off the central Rockies for early next week. In the
meantime, the trough and sfc low continue lifting north tonight
toward Hudson Bay allowing for some weak high pressure to develop
overhead. This could yield some fog redevelopment late tonight,
especially if there is better clearing early on. The HREF continues
to show probabilities of vis dropping to 0.5 mi or less increasing
to around 50% for much of the UP by early Sunday morning, so some
patchy dense fog is possible. Also, the rain and melting snow today
will leave wet grounds into tonight before temps settle into the 20s
to low 30s. This could create some slick spots by Sunday morning
with some refreezing on sidewalks and roadways.
The southern mid level trough will have lifted to southern IL by
Sunday morning with a deepening sfc low just out ahead of it over
southern IN. Any lingering fog should diminish in the morning hours
leaving the rest of the day fairly dry and quiet. Highs again will
be warmer than normal in the upper 30s to low 40s with Tds in the
low 30s, resulting in additional snowmelt. Later in the day and
through Sunday night, the lifting trough and sfc low will make their
way over Lower MI and Lake Huron. There is fairly good agreement
that associated precip (a rain and snow mix) will graze the eastern
CWA with some upslope enhancement along the northeast late Sunday
afternoon through Monday morning. Opted to side with better
consensus in model guidance of a drier and less snow accumulation
solution since model soundings lack the deep moisture and lift. That
said, this will warrant additional monitoring as the ECMWF has
trended precip westward and also increased some light snow totals
into the far eastern counties over the last few model runs.
Outside some additional upslope wintry mix over the far northeast,
Monday should remain mainly quiet and dry in the wake of the sfc
low. Temps will be a bit cooler than Sunday, mainly peaking in the
30s. With clearing in the south central and along the WI/MI state
line, some low 40s may be achieved. Quiet weather continues Monday
night as clouds increase with a shortwave/sfc low traveling to the
south; temps settle into the 20s. From there attention turns to the
LES pattern that sets up on Tuesday. The mid level pattern consists
of an elongated trough over much of eastern Canada which rotates
through the rest of the work week, mainly centered over northern
Ontario. At the sfc, the low over Quebec Tuesday morning retrogrades
over Hudson Bay while the southern low over the Mid Mississippi
moves east toward New England then lifts to Quebec. All the while,
sfc high pressure over the lee of the Canadian Rockies gradually
builds south into the Plains and eventually the Midwest by the end
of the work week. CAA with this brings 850 mb temps down to around -
11C to -13C by Wednesday with lower temps to -18C to -20C for
Friday. Snow accumulations look to mainly be confined to the west
wind snow belts through Thursday night, with a more northwest
component merging in Friday into the weekend. Given the Lake
Superior sfc-850 mb delta-ts, some moderate to heavy periods of LES
could lead to difficult travel at times New Years Day to the end of
next week. Otherwise temps return to near normal around the holiday
and slightly below normal by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
Conditions have generally improved across the area with MVFR to IFR
conditions being reported across much of the area. Ample low-level
moisture is present across the area given the recent warm
temperatures and rainfall, which will help to bring a return of fog
overnight. KCMX will see LIFR conditions develop after 08Z, with the
development of fog aided by light winds. While the current TAFs for
KSAW and KCMX keep IFR conditions for early Sunday, there is still a
25% chance that one or both terminals could drop to LIFR. In any
event, conditions at all terminals will trend to MVFR after sunrise.
KCMX will see westerly winds this evening with gusts to 25kts;
however, these will die down there after midnight, with generally
light winds expected at all terminals during the day on Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 426 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
A low pressure system has made it just north of central Lake
Superior this afternoon and will continue lifting north-northeast
tonight with weak high pressure building in behind it. Westerly
winds of 20-30 kts are expected this afternoon and evening with a
few gale force gusts to 35 kts possible over the east (~20-40%
chance). Winds fall to less than 20 kts tonight as the high pressure
builds overhead. West winds veer north for Sunday, holding mainly
less than 15 kts through the day. Northwest winds then hold around
20 kts or less Sunday night through Tuesday night. Some northwest
gusts may approach 25 kts Wednesday through Thursday night.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 309 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
Record warm highs and lows at WFO MQT in Negaunee Township (records
date back to 1959):
Date High Low
Dec. 28 42 (1979) 34 (2003)
Dec. 29 43 (1979) 31 (2002)
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...Jablonski
CLIMATE...
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
921 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
The environment over East TN remains quite stable in the low
levels as a warm front is located well to our south, across
southern GA to central AL. Convection ongoing in MS is expected to
reach our SW counties around 08-09Z, with a weakening trend as it
moves east through our area. With a strong LLJ ahead of this line,
isolated strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph may be able to mix down
to the surface, but the potential for widespread damaging winds is
low.
For the High Wind Warning, we are starting to see winds increase
in the usual mountain locations, with Camp Creek reporting 39 mph
and Cove Mountain reporting 34 mph. This will continue to increase
in the enxt few hours as the LLJ translates east. No changes will
be made to the HW.W.
A few small adjustments will be made to PoP/Wx grids to better
match current radar and the latest HRRR runs for precip timing.
Otherwise, the forecast looks in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
Key Messages:
1. Damaging mountain wave winds are expected tonight into tomorrow
across the Tennessee mountains and adjacent foothills.
2. A line of showers and embedded storms is expected to move in
around 3 AM EST tomorrow with strong to marginally severe storms
possible in the far southern areas.
Discussion:
Currently this afternoon, troughing is centered to our west with a
120+ kt jet extending from the ArkLaTex region up to the Great
Lakes. An area of low pressure is also noted in the ArkLaTex region
with severe convection already ongoing. Throughout the evening,
troughing will become more and more negatively tilted with the
surface low deepening as it moves towards west Tennessee. Strong
upper divergence in the right-entrance region of the upper jet
will continue to strengthen the already impressive low-level jet.
By around midnight, the 850mb jet is expected to be 65 kts or more
to our west. As such, decent mountain wave event is still
anticipated with no changes to the High Wind Warning expected.
Regarding the severe weather risk, the setup will produce an
impressively sheared environment, especially in the lower levels.
The consensus is for 0-1km shear to be around 40 kts with
sufficiently strong deep-layer shear. The main inhibiting factor
will be the expected occlusion of the system late tonight into the
early morning hours. It should also be noted the extent of cool air
moving in from the cold air damming regime to our east. Each updated
runs of the high-res model guidance continue to indicate the warm
sector likely staying south of our area. Some elevated instability
is certainly possible, but the tornado threat is very limited in our
area. For the timing, models suggest a line of showers and embedded
storms to move in around 3 AM EST and exit to the east by late
morning. Based on the overall environment, the main concerns would
be some strong winds and possibly small hail with possible later
redevelopment. Otherwise, the activity will push off to the east
later in the day on Sunday leading to another cool and cloudy day.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
Key Messages:
1. Rain chances return Monday night into Tuesday with strong winds
likely again in the mountains.
2. Progressively colder temperatures are expected mid to late week.
Sunday Night through Wednesday
At the start of the period, troughing will be in place over the area
with the system impacting the short term period having pushed off to
the eastern Great Lakes. Initially, some wraparound moisture could
keep a few lingering showers in the area, but ultimately the result
will be cooler temperatures. Another system will eject out of the
central Rockies and deepen fairly rapidly as it moves towards the
Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys. The system will track to our
north Monday night into Thursday morning, bringing another chance of
rain. The environment looks to support a cool rain with temperatures
ahead of the system completely above freezing in the lower levels.
The strong MSLP gradient and near 50 kt 850mb jet will likely lead
to another wind event, especially in the mountains. By Wednesday,
the system will be to our east with CAA behind its associated cold
front. Lingering moisture and westerly to northwesterly flow will
keep chances for snow showers across the mountains.
Thursday through Saturday
Late in the week and and into the weekend, a troughing pattern will
persist across the area with even deeper troughing likely by next
weekend. A secondary frontal boundary may move through Friday into
Saturday with Arctic high pressure arriving from the northwest. This
could produce even more significantly cold conditions, which is
supported by very strong negative 500mb anomalies in the ensemble
data. Depending on the amount of moisture present, light snow could
be possible during this time, but strong subsidence from the high
pressure may limit this potential.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
TRI and TYS are seeing VFR conditions due to a downslope wind that
will increase in strength over the next few hours. This will
create LLWS overnight ahead of a line of showers/storms that will
cross the area from west to east between 06Z and 12Z. CHA will
maintain IFR to LIFR conditions until after the line moves
through, with TYS and TRI staying VFR until the line arrives.
Gusty winds to 30 kt may accompany the showers. A cig at MVFR
levels will likely prevail through the day tomorrow, with gusty SW
winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 54 63 47 / 50 90 70 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 51 64 48 / 50 90 80 30
Oak Ridge, TN 59 52 63 47 / 30 90 70 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 56 63 45 / 50 80 80 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION...DGS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
753 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will remain nearby through tonight, and then lift
north during Sunday. A strong cold front swings through Monday
morning. High pressure briefly moves in on Tuesday followed by
another low pressure system moving over the area on Wednesday.
Low pressure remains over southern Quebec while high pressure
builds to the south through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Hoisted a Dense Fog advisory for the interior portions of the
CWA as many locations are near or at 1/4 mile visibility.
Preemptively issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the rest of the
CWA including NYC and Long Island as dense fog will be possible
later tonight. While visibilities may fluctuate through the
night, there may be intermittent pockets of fog where
visibilities are less than 1/4 mile making for potentially
dangerous travel.
A stalled out front boundary will remain nearby throughout the
night. Synoptically speaking a warm front / stationary boundary,
take you pick; should more or less wash out over or just to the west
of the CWA. At the same time there is likely to remain a weak
coastal frontal boundary in place. Thus, a very light SW flow should
prevail, although many stations, especially further inland will
register light and var winds much of the time. Closer to the coast
and further east look for more of a light southerly flow. This will
keep clouds in place along with light liquid precip all night long.
The higher probability of light rain will remain over the southern
portion of the region with some assistance from any coastal
boundary. Otherwise should be a good portion of the night where more
northern areas experience a break from organized rain, and mainly
some intermittent very light showers or drizzle. Temperatures will
average a bit above normal with low cloud cover and low level
moisture entrenched. Lows will range in the upper 30s across the
interior to the lower and middle 40s elsewhere.
During Sunday look for another cloudy and dreary day. Low pressure
off to our southwest will begin to spin up with the assistance of
positive vorticity advection across the Tennessee Valley and into the
Central Appalachians. Ridging over the area out ahead of this
system may aid in lifting ceilings a bit for the afternoon. The
warm frontal boundary which has been lingering nearby will lift
north in response to low pressure developing back to the
southwest. As the front lifts north a break in organized light
rain / shower activity is likely to take place in the afternoon
as RAP and NAM 3km forecast soundings indicate some drying
above 1 to 2 kft. Clouds will remain in place with broad
isentropic lift increasing later in the day. This may bring back
a couple of area of light rain / showers late in the day and
early evening. Overall a unsettled day initially, but likely to
not be raining for a good portion of the afternoon other than
some drizzle. With the warm front lifting north and a more
established low level southerly flow look for temperatures to
climb well above normal with mainly middle and upper 50s. A
couple of spots flirt with 60 in all likelihood, despite all the
clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The synoptic gradient increases to begin Sunday night as more
isopleth / isobar packing is evident in the surface and lower
mandatory level forecast analysis. This is in response to developing
low pressure lifting northeast into the Great Lakes with its frontal
system extends to the east a pivots through the Appalachians. The
frontal system will then reach the coast and our areas towards
daybreak. Out ahead of it look for the low chance of a few showers
in weak isentropic lift during the evening, but much of the first
half of the night appears to be dry. The LLJ (60 kts or so at 2 kft)
really cranks up just before and towards midnight, reaching its peak
towards 09z to 12z Mon. This strong warm advection in the column
will focus moderate to briefly heavy rain along and just ahead of
the approaching boundary. PoPs increase quickly for the second half
of the night. Lifted indices drop below +5 which raises the
possibility of embedded quasi-convective elements. Thus, a quick
pulse of heavier rain just before and approaching daybreak is
looking like a good bet. Questions remain as to how much of the
strong southerly flow in the form of gusts can mix down to the
surface just ahead of the boundary. Dew points are likely to surge
to near 50 or in the lower 50s late Sunday night / early Monday
morning just ahead of the front. Steady or slowly rising
temperatures are likely in the stronger warm advection pattern.
During Monday look for the boundary to cross the metro on either
side of 12z, and likely to clear far eastern portions of the area by
midday. The winds switch quickly behind the boundary to more a
westerly component (W / WSW). This will bring in drier and cooler
air, but this next air mass is more pacific than cP in nature.
Clearing takes place quickly during the mid to late morning from
west to east. It will be unseasonably mild with record highs for the
date in the lower and middle 60s. Current forecast values are short
of the record temperatures, but would not be surprised if forecast
numbers trend a little higher on the next couple of NWP cycles. Thus
we could get close to a few records on Monday on a W to WSW wind
which will be gusty at times. Total QPF through the near and short
term combining the two disturbances together yields 0.75 to 1.25
inches liquid equivalent, all in the form of rain.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
By Monday night, the cold front pushes east with some subtle ridging
over the area allowing for surface high pressure to build into the
region from the southwest into Tuesday. This will allow for dry
conditions with generally light winds and relatively clear skies
Monday night into early Tuesday.
By mid-day Tuesday, clouds begin to move in from the southwest ahead
of the next developing low pressure system. A shortwave digging into
the Tennessee Valley and Southeast US will allow for a developing
low pressure system to move into the area by Tuesday evening and
into early Wednesday. There remain some differences in the exact
placement of the low pressure system as it shifts generally overhead
Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Regardless, rain showers are
expected to begin to overspread the region from southwest to
northeast early Tuesday evening. A widespread rainfall is then
expected during much of the overnight as the energy of the low
pressure shifts to a developing coastal low that pushes off the New
England coast into Wednesday.
The low continues to intensify as it occludes over southern Quebec
into Thursday and Friday. This will result in generally dry
conditions and breezy NW flow through the end of the week, though
some remnant rain or snow showers can`t entirely be ruled out in the
wake of the departing low on Thursday. Persistent strong NW flow
will result in strong CAA through the end of the week. High
temperatures by Friday and Saturday are expected to be only in the
30s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak boundary lingers across the area overnight as a warm
front approaches from the south. The warm lifts north of the
area from late morning into the afternoon. A cold front then
approaches from the west late Sunday night.
Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions are forecast overnight with low
ceilings, fog, and rain or drizzle. Improvement is likely late
morning Sunday through Sunday afternoon as the warm front pushes
further north. Best chance for improvement will be along the
coast with a good chance of becoming VFR. However, farther north
and west of the NYC terminals, improvement will be slower and
may never even make it to KSWF. This improvement should be
temporary before conditions worsen again Sunday night with an
approaching cold front.
Winds will be light and variable overnight. On Sunday, coastal
wind speeds increase during the afternoon where S gusts over
20kt possible late. Wind shear becomes increasingly
likely,especially heading into Sunday night.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
Extent of improvement late Sunday morning into the afternoon
will be dependent on how far north of the terminals the warm
front gets.
Amendments are likely through the period with the timing of
category changes and wind shifts.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night into Mon Morning: -RA/RA and IFR conds. LLWS likely.
S winds with gusts up to around 30kt.
Monday afternoon: Becoming VFR with W winds. WSW winds G15-20kt.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, likely MVFR late Tue/Tue Night in -RA.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower in -RA likely, improvement to VFR possible
by afternoon. W winds in the afternoon G20-25kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. W winds G25-30kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub small craft conditions take place tonight and through most of
Sunday. For tonight some patchy fog is likely across portions of the
waters, with areas of fog also possible which may restrict
visibilities at times. Issued a Marine Dense Fog advisory for
the sheltered waters near land as visibilities through the
night may regularly be 1 NM or less. During Sunday afternoon a S
wind will increase resulting in small craft gusts for the
western ocean late in the day. Then largely from west to east
Sunday night small craft conditions develop from west to east.
Ocean seas also climb during Sunday night into Monday morning.
Seas will likely remain elevated on the ocean through Monday
evening with small craft conditions prevailing. The nearshore
waters should transition to sub small craft conditions during
Monday afternoon.
SCA conditions continue on the ocean waters with wave heights 5-7
feet into Monday night. Conditions become marginal with wave heights
near 5 feet on Tuesday but very quickly expected to be well within
SCA criteria on the ocean waters as winds and waves increase ahead
of the next low pressure system that is poised to move over the area
on Wednesday. Behind the low, a strong NW wind with gusts upwards of
30 kt develops on all waters resulting in SCA conditions by
Wednesday night and into Thursday. There is a low chance for gales
on the ocean during this timeframe.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
At this time there are no hydrologic concerns through next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There continues to be a widespread distribution in the NYHOPS /
Stevens TWL forecast, primarily for the western LI south shore bay
locations into the first half of next week. The cycles that are
garnering attention are the early Mon and Wed cycles driven by a new
moon phase into Monday. With the larger uncertainty overall a
widespread minor coastal flood benchmark approach is on the table,
with minor to moderate potential for some of the western LI south
shore bay locations, more so for the Mon AM cycle. The uncertainty
at this time centers around any wind wave contribution and how much
any southerly flow can mix down to the surface with a series of low
pressure systems that track nearby and just to the west.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ067>071.
Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Sunday
for NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for NJZ002-004-103-
104.
Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Sunday
for NJZ006-105>108.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to noon EST Monday for
ANZ331-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for
ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday for
ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/MW
NEAR TERM...JE/MW
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JE/MW
HYDROLOGY...JE/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
830 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front across central NC will gradually move northward
early Sunday morning. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop and
substantially deepen from the lower MS Valley to the Great Lakes. A
trailing cold front will move east across the region Sunday night.
Following Pacific high pressure will migrate across and offshore the
Carolinas Monday and Monday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 830 PM SATURDAY...
* Sharp contrast in temperatures across the area
* Rain early, tapering off after midnight
* Fog possible across the western Piedmont.
The wedge front remains stationary across the Piedmont this evening,
resulting in a sharp contrast in conditions across the forecast
area. Earlier today, areas generally south and east of I-85 saw
temps rise well into the 60s and 70s this afternoon with only a few
light showers. On the other hand locations to the west barely broke
out of the mid/upper 40s with low clouds/fog through most the day.
00Z and 01Z surface obs show the front lingering between I-85 and US-
1, but it should begin the slow process of retreating northward
overnight. A stronger surge in warm advection and a strengthening
LLJ will help the front move northward, resulting in relatively
early minimum temperatures. Temps will remain mild in the upper
50s/60s to the east, whereas temps in the Triad are likely to begin
rising overnight. Only made minor adjustments to temperatures with
the evening update based on observational trends.
Meanwhile, light stratiform rain continues to develop and move
northward along and just to the cool side of the stalled surface
boundary. PoPs will remain in the 70-90 percent range through the
evening/overnight hours to account for this precip, with lower
values (20-30 percent) elsewhere. Rainfall amounts will be light,
generally less than a quarter of an inch. The past few runs of the
HRRR indicate an additional round of light rain should develop
around 09Z and move through the area although confidence in this is
low.
In terms of fog potential, the rain currently across the western
Piedmont should move through the area and taper off shortly after
midnight. There is likely to be a several hour period where fog
(possibly dense) is possible across the Triad before it`s scoured
out as the front retreats northward through the area before
daybreak. I`ll keep the mention of fog in the forecast with the idea
that a Dense Fog Adv may be needed for parts of the area at some
point late tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 214 PM SATURDAY...
* Slight Risk of severe storms across most of Central NC into Sunday
evening
* Breezy south-southeasterly winds gusting between 30 and 40 mph
during the afternoon to early evening hours of Sunday along/ahead
of convection
* Turning cooler Monday, but still above seasonal normals
The overall pattern has largely remained consistent for the period
Sunday into early Monday. A negatively-tilted upper trough will
progress from the MN/TN Valley into the lower Great Lakes and Mid-
Atlantic region. At the surface, a surface low over the MN/TN Valley
is forecast to deepen to ~ 988 mb once it reaches the eastern Great
Lakes. As this happens, a cold front will progress through our
forecast area late Sunday night.
Ingredients for showers and storms remain in place for Sunday
afternoon and evening, including PW`s near the climatological
maximum of 1.3 to 1.5 inches, strong lift with the trough/front, and
abundant vertical shear. The uncertainty still lies in the amount or
degree of instability that can be realized along and ahead of the
front. The latest 12Z HREF and HRRR suggest that the best overlap of
instability and shear should coincide over the southern Piedmont,
Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. Most CAMs suggest that while
some isolated showers may be present across our western zones Sun
morning, the main action will come in the afternoon to evening
hours, roughly from 11 am to 8 pm from west to east. As such
temperatures should manage to be some 15-20 degrees above normal in
the mid 60s in the west to the lower 70s in the east. Several of the
CAMs, most notably the HRRR, suggest a pre-frontal line of
convection will advance eastward in the afternoon to early evening.
A mixed convective mode is possible with this line, with a QLCS and
semi-discrete cells possible, most favored in the far southern
Piedmont to Sandhills region, where there is better overlap of
CAPE/shear. One uncertainty is that the initial line appears to move
through ahead of the axis of instability. Behind the initial line,
some CAMs suggest another batch of showers and storms could move
through, with perhaps a better overlap of CAPE/shear, although at
this point we will be near convective minimum. Regardless, SPC has
retained a slight risk across all but our far eastern counties. The
main risk will be damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado is still
possible, but most favored where CAPE/Shear coincide across the
southern Piedmont and southern Sandhills.
Along and ahead of convection, low-level winds exceeding 40+ kts
combined with downward momentum transfer will support breezy
southerly winds of 30 to 40 mph. These appear to be most favored
along and east of US-1. Convection should exit our CWA around 10 pm
or so as the front progresses eastward. Overnight lows will be
cooler but still warm for this time of year in the mid 40s to near
50.
By Monday, westerly flow will take over aloft, trending to
southwesterly by early Tue ahead of our next trough settling into
the TN valley. High pressure over northern FL and GA will weaken
ahead of a surface low reaching southern IL. While there will be
some CAA behind the front, the airmass will still be well above
normal. As such, highs will reach the low 60s in the west and upper
60s in the east. We should stay dry most of the night, with lows
cooler in the low to mid 40s under a light southeasterly wind.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...
Rain chances return on Tuesday (New Year`s Eve) as another low
pressure system moves through the Ohio River Valley. Isolated to
scattered showers are expected to move through the region starting
NYE morning through the evening. In the afternoon, the atmosphere
may destabilize, which would allow for a few rumbles of thunder east
of US1. Highs on Tuesday are expected to be in the 60s into low 70s,
while lows for NYE should be in the low to mid 40s.
Wednesday after the cold fropa, we should return to cool
northwesterly flow. High temperatures will drop to the 50s on
Wednesday, with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. On Thursday, a
reinforcing dry Arctic front will reach the region, dropping
temperatures further. Thursday and Friday highs should be in the mid
40s to low 50s with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. Another blast of
dry Arctic air is expected to reach the region on Saturday, dropping
temperatures further, with highs in the low to mid 40s and lows in
the low to mid 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 710 PM Saturday...
High confidence in LIFR/IFR at GSO and INT through 12Z Sunday, with
a period of rain expected between 01Z and 05Z, followed strengthening
winds aloft and the potential for LLWS. Ceilings will gradually
lift after 12Z ahead of a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms
expected to move through the area between 16-18Z. Strong winds will
develop immediately ahead of the showers and may be even stronger
with the heaviest showers. Low ceilings and some additional showers
may then linger through 00Z.
MVFR ceilings at RDU may lower to IFR tonight while some showers
move north through the area, though confidence is below average.
Expect and overall lifting of ceilings Sunday morning, with strong
southerly winds developing and gusting to as high as 30kt ahead of a
line of showers and isolated storms that should impact RDU between
18Z to 21Z.
Similar conditions are expected at FAY and RWI, though with MVFR and
MVFR more likely tonight and increasingly southern winds that may
gust to 20kt by 12Z and then increase to 30kt. There is also a
better chance of thunderstorms at FAY and RWI with the line of
convection between 18-00Z.
Outlook: Lingering low-level moisture behind the passing showers and
storms will maintain a risk of IFR-MVFR ceilings until a cold front
crosses the region Sunday night-Monday morning. A weak and fast
moving frontal system will favor a chance of a few showers/storms
and brief restrictions again Tue-Tue night.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$ SYNOPSIS...Leins/MWS
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...BLS/MWS